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What is the True Demand For Electric Cars?

October 16th, 2009 | Posted in: Marketing, Public Opinion

This is clearly a question that is important to answer.

Since the Volt was introduced in January 2007, many EV programs and EV concepts have emerged. President Obama was elected and pledged to put 1 million electric cars on the road by 2015. The hydrogen car future has been put in doubt. Oil reached nearly $150 per barrel. The world economy nearly collapsed. GM and Chrysler entered and left bankruptcy. US Car sales went from nearly 17 million per year to rates below $10 million. Rick Wagoner lost his job. A123 Systems went public. EEStor still hasn’t shown us anything.

All the while, GM-Volt.com and you, its audience of EV early adopters, have chugged along.

At this point GM admits there are over 50,000 people waiting for a Volt as this site can attest, and Nissan claims more than 20,000 will pre-order its LEAF EV next Spring.

Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn thinks 10% of car sales will be electric in 2020. A very recent Credit-Suisse report predicts 1.1% of global cars sales will be electric by 2015, and that EV sales will be worth $400 billion by 2030 and sales of lithium ion batteries will reach $100 billion by the same year. It is also predicted widespread adoption of EVs will reduced petroleum consumption by 4 million barrels per day by 2030.

There are several factors which are at work to promote electric car adoption, especially a growing interest in reducing reliance on petroleum for social, environmental, and economical reasons.

Similarly, forces resist the change such as image, range limits, cost, and recently lower gas prices.

So what is the true demand for EVs?

From October 19th to 21st the first ever “Business of Plugging In” conference will take place in Detroit which will attempt to answer and discuss this and other relevant issues. It will bring together many influential people in the electric car industry for a series of workshops and discussions. Speakers will include such people as Wesley Clark, George Pataki, Bill Ford and Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm. Executives from A123 Systems, Kleiner-Perkins, GM, Fisker, and Think will join many others.

One particular session will be called “The Consumer: Who, When and Why?” and will include Tony Posawatz of GM and Felix Kramer of CalCars.org. You can join them here today in a multi-blog livechat in the box below at 3:30 EDT, and help start the conversation.
<a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php?option=com_mobile&task=viewaltcast&altcast_code=ca963baa86" >Tony Posawatz, Chevy Volt and Felix Kramer, California Cars Institute</a>

Posted by: Lyle

184 Responses to “What is the True Demand For Electric Cars?”

+28 Rashiid Amul Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:22 am

Interesting question, Lyle. Good morning to you all.

The true demand for EREV and BEV will be determined by the cost of the cars and the cost gasoline. When the cost comes way down, and/or gas goes way up, demand will increase.

For me, it is not about either one of these.
It is about getting away from terrorism and keeping our troops safe, all the while, helping our environment and screwing the middle eastern governments.

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+3 Carcus1 Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:32 am

I’d have to break the question down into two parts:

1. What is the true demand for $40,000 electric cars?

2. What is the true demand for $20,000 electric cars?

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Neil Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:42 am

Initially I expect demand to be fairly small. There needs to be a compelling reason/motivation to change. People need to see EVs as fundamentally different before widespread adoption takes place. The car didn’t replace the horse and buggy right away. It took some time, infrastructure, and people seeing that it had advantages worth the extra expense before it caught on. I expect it will be the same with EVs.

I think we’ll see the “spark” in EV growth (pun intended) when someone can clearly demonstrate and/or articulate a compelling benefit that is understandable by the average consumer and relevant to them.

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+12 RB Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:43 am

Rashiid said “For me, it is not about either one of these.
It is about getting away from terrorism and keeping our troops safe, all the while, helping our environment and screwing the middle eastern governments.”
———–
These are noble motives, and I think most people share them. Still, when it comes down to a purchase, the controlling factor for the large majority of possible customers is going to be price as compared to performance. By performance I’m not thinking so much of 0-60 times as number of passengers, comfort, range, and yes to some degree “prestige”, meaning how the car is perceived by friends and neighbors. Right now the projected Volt prices are notably higher than comparable ICE cars. I think volume sales of Volt or other electric vehicles are doubtful until they are priced at a level comparable to other alternatives.

But I still agree with Rashiid’s other more general motives, just uncertain as to how many people will be motivated by them to the point of purchase. That is, Prius works, but Prius is only a little more expensive. That shows there can be a price increment, but not too big an increment. My guess is that the same is true for Volt.

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+5 mikeinatl. Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:44 am

Demand for electrics will almost certainly be much higher in cars with the Voltec-type systems and their range extenders.

I really wouldn’t think of buying an all-electric car anytime in the foreseeable future, but am quite comfortable with the concept of an electric car with a gasoline range extender. This seems to be a perfect way to transition to an electric car.

So I would hope the folks at the conference add this variation of electric transportation into their discussion.

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+2 RB Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:45 am

Carcus1–>

My guess is that your number 2 is about ten times number 1.

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+2 RB Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:48 am

mikenati said “Demand for electrics will almost certainly be much higher in cars with the Voltec-type systems and their range extenders. ”
—–
I would completely agree if we were talking about cars at the same price. If Voltec-type systems are more expensive, it will be a matter of how much more expensive, as price will play against perceived better performance.

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+3 Jason M. Hendler Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:07 am

No need to speculate. We already have waiting lists for cars yet to be built and their relative sizes correlate to the size of their respective markets.

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+1 Andy Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:08 am

When ever people discus demand potential I think they approach it from the wrong anlge. That is everyone asks “will someone who wants an electric car be able and want to pay $40,000?”

I think the real question should be “Will the people who now spend $40,000 on cars/SUV’s buy a Volt instead?”

I think the other mistake is trying to justify the cost with a cost-benefit analysis such as “I’ll pay $10K more because I know I’ll save $15K in gas over the next X years”. If this logic held true then all the high MPG car would cost more because of all the money it saved you in gas.

The simple truth is that the initial Volts will be more expensive because its the first generation of a very different powertrain, the components are expensive and there is no direct competition. Trying to sugar coat it any other way is just marketing spin

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Bearclaw Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:15 am

I think cost is going to be a huge factor. I came across a 2005 Honda Insight for 13,000 and felt I couldn’t pass it up. I still want to get a Volt but it will be hard to justify paying 3x what I just did when i’m already getting 50mpg. If you can get a Prius or 2nd gen Insight for more then 10,000 less then a Volt it will be a hard sell regardless of the 40 miles AER and plug in capability.

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+2 tom Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:16 am

There are an awful lot of 2 car families that can use an all electric car for the majority of their driving within range of their home. And long before they can build enough BEVs to sell one to every 2 car family, the prices will come down and the ranges will reach 200 miles which will make them practical for 90% of car owners.

The prices on these cars will come down much faster than most people realize. There is way too much money to be made for companies to move slowly. They may be moving slowly in initial production (I think we will still see over a million electric cars sold in the US in 2013 including 12.3 aer prius plug-in, 200,000 leafs, 200,000 Volts), but in product and battery development things are now moving at full speed ahead.

There are 2 assumptions that are pretty safe to make.
1) Batteries are going to get better very fast and the prices of BEV/EREVs will fall
2) Gas prices will rise quickly (not just because of peak oil but because of weak dollar).

So I don’t think they will be able to make the Volts, Leafs, Plug-in Prius fast enough. The prices will come down, the volumes will go up.

Bottom line is we need to stop importing Oil and invest that money into our economy (for a zillion reasons).

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+15 Dave K. Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:17 am

It doesn’t matter what a demand survey shows now.

First, the manufactures need to produce a product that earns positive word of mouth from the early adopters.

Second, the new electric vehicles will need positive reviews from Edmunds, Car and Driver, and Consumer Reports.

Third, the benefits of EV and EREV need to be advertised in a simple and straight forward manner.

Demand will rise from this point forward.

=D~

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+5 john1701a Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:21 am

Remember that original goal of… “nicely under $30,000“

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+1 Daryl P Cobranchi Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:23 am

How many of those people placed their names on the waiting list long before they knew the car would be in the $40k range?

I’d be surprised if 1 in 10 people on the list actually purchases a Volt in the 1st year.

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tom Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:29 am

Even if battery technology improved to the point where every car, van, SUV sold in the USA was either a BEV or EREV by 2016, it would take 10 more years to cut the OIL currently that goes to cars (about 9 millon barrels a day) down to about 1 million barrles a day.

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+12 Jim I Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:30 am

We early adopters have many different reasons for our purchase decisions, and are willing to pay for them.

But as much as I hate to admit it, sales of this new technology are not going to go very far until the average person sees it as an economic advantage to do so. After all, how many people, other than the people here, do you know that would put down an additional $15K to say they want to help stop the flow of cash to the middle east? Most people buy a car to get them from point A to point B. If they can get a little glitz, and still keep the payment within the monthly budget, great. If not, then they suck it up, and buy what they can afford.

Before the sales of electric cars can overtake the sales of ICE based vehicles, a few things have to happen:

1. The technology has to be proven and reliable. That is where we come in. Someone has to step up and take a chance. I am ready to do exactly that.

2. Gas prices will have to go over the tipping point where most people decide it is not worth the price of the product. That is different for each person. My tipping point is $3.00 per gallon. What is yours?

3. The prices of the Voltec design have to be brought down. We are all aware that the Gen-1 Volt has a built in pricing factor, just in case GM has to replace an unreasonable amount of battery packs under warranty. Assuming the vehicles work as expected, that fudge factor can be removed. And as volume production ramps up, there will be economies of scale to further reduce the costs, and therefore the retail pricing.

4. Finally, GM can not place all of it’s eggs into a single design. For the initial effort the Volt is excellent. Once it is shown that the design is functional, there will need to be more models made available, to satisfy the needs of more people. Small trucks, crossover SUV’s, two seater sporty types, and high end Caddy Converj models will make the technology desirable to many more buyers.

But there has to be the inital step taken to get things moving. And for that, I give GM a lot of credit by going forward with the Volt!

That is my take on it, anyway……

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+4 Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:40 am

but you have to start trying.

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+1 tom Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:54 am

Well once we get to the point where we are reducing our imported oil by a millon BPD, PER YEAR that will help keep the price of oil down for those still driving with gas cars. Thats why we need to get those volumes up. But the weak dollar and the end of cheap oil guarantees that even with massive drops in demand for oil, oil won’t be staying below $100/barrell ever again.

For those that follow the Oil stories, the cheap Oil will be largely gone soon. The 10 largest oil fields in the world are already in decline. So in the future when Oil demand drops, the price can’t drop permanently because companies will just stop drilling and exploring.

There is enough Oil to keep the world going for 100 years, but for the most part it is either expensive to get to or in areas that are politically unstable. There are exceptions (like Alaska, and we should be up there exploiting those resources).

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+4 koz Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:05 am

Some good points here, but I think a more appropriate angle is: “What percentage of today’s buyers are willing to spend $32K (the actual after credit number hinted by GM) for a luxury grade drivetrain “feel” that incorporates paradigm changing technology and will reduce their gasoline consumption significantly (more than 70% for the majority of people).

A lot of Prius buyers choose that car because it gets the best gas mileage available and it pushes technology not because they can only afford ~$25k . Elliminating this large group of buyers from potential the potential EV purchasing pool would be a mistake.

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koz Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:08 am

If memory serves (and Lyle could answer this better) there were about 15-20k on the list when the $35-40k was given by GM.

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+7 Jim in PA Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:25 am

You can’t mix BEV demand with EREV demand interchangeably. Many people simply can’t make a BEV work with their drives and their schedules, no matter what the cost. If Nissan thinks that 10% of sales will soon be EREV or BEV then they are being optimistic. If they think that the 10% will be BEVs, then they are smoking something illegal.

Also, it does go beyond cost. People are getting rid of perfectly good cathode ray TVs to get flat panel TVs. People replaced their entire vinyl record collections and equipment with CD players and CDs at great cost. When people get excited about a technology, the economics don’t have to make sense. Plus, remember that purchasing a new car is financially foolish anyway, with massive depreciation occuring in the first year. If people were buying cars based on financial considerations they would buy 1-2 year old used cars.

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-3 BDP Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:25 am

The list is only a vote of confidence. I’d be surprised if one in ten even ponied up.

Drivers of Prius & Volt sized vehicles are limited, most people need or want more room. I’ll take a Hummer series hybrid please.

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+1 old man Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:25 am

RB

I agree with you but MAY differ on the costing factor. I believe the Voltec pricing will drop much faster than pure EV. The reason is Voltec is the same as BEV except for the ICE and the generator, both should drop as production ramps up. The remaining extra cost is the software of controlling the ICE/BATTERY marriage. This software when mature should be much less costly and hence the BEV with a large battery should come in at nearly the cost of the E-REV. [Hopefully within $3,000.00 to 5,000.00] and I think most would pay that extra to be rid of that range thing.

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+2 old man Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:31 am

Daryl

I agree with your 1 in 10 but for the opposite reason. I think demand will far out strip supply.

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+7 Ted in Fort Myers Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:35 am

People don’t buy based on price. If they did there would not be so many obese SUVs on the road. Or fancy oversized pick-up trucks. People buy what looks beautiful to them, or functional or strong or comfortable, or luxurious, People will buy the volt if it is beautiful and comfortable.

Take Care,

TED

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Van Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:39 am

One presenter at the conference might show a graph of the current market in the USA, or Europe or the World. How many cars are sold and what percentage goes for (1) under $20 K, between 20 and 30 K, between 30 K and 40 K, and over 40 K. Then we would know how large the market currently is for a vehicle in the price range of a prospective plug-in. With the economy the way it is, I expect “demand” will be trending toward lower, not higher priced transportation. My guess then is that Toyota will be able to sell all the plug in Priuses it makes in 2012 (20,000 to 30,000) because the price (below $30,000) plus rebate ($3,000) puts the vehicle into a large part of the market. Conversely, the Volt sales will drop off after an initial spurt due to pent up demand, because it does not compete with the Toyota on price. Time will tell.

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+8 CDAVIS Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:41 am

______________________________________________________
Ten years from now, the question asked will be:

What is the True Demand For Gas Cars?

The Electric Car Revolution has arrived.
______________________________________________________

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+6 Ted in Fort Myers Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:46 am

You really have forgotten the people intelligent enough to know that every dollar we spend on gas more than a dollar goes out of the country for crude, troops, etc. Our ecenomy has a chance to recover if we quit draining dollars from it. By the way I drive a 2006 Insight and can’t wait for a E-REV or BEV to replace it and I get over 60 MPG.

Take Care,

TED

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+3 Ted in Fort Myers Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:50 am

American built and American fueled. Those are my requirements.

Take Care,

TED

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Eco Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:50 am

Lyle, where did this come from?

“It is also predicted widespread adoption of EVs will reduced petroleum consumption by 4 million barrels per day by 2030.”

Not doubting it, I’d like the citation.

On the bigger issue, light-duty turnover used to take 10 years. With people milking all they can from their cars, it’s taking a little longer. So assume that their is no price parity in total cost of ownership for five years…while an aggresive market penetration might take 30 percent of the market, price in this case will keep it around half that, 15 percent. But then at five years, EREV and similar technology hits price parity overall because the cost of battery power has come down by half…now you can figure market penetration will hit 50 percent of new vehicles, since we saw what marketing and comfort did for SUV sales. At the height of the SUV craze, half of all new LD vehicles were SUV’s.

An econ whiz would have no problem modeling a 50 percent fleet composition of EREV, Plug in hybrid, or all electric for light duty vehicles by 2020, assuming 80 dollar p/b oil. Add in cap and trade, it’s almost a given even if oil goes under 80.

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+1 Kaspre Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:55 am

It’s been a while, but as I recall, everyone that signed up picked a price range (20k, 30k, 40k) that they would be comfortable with. So you could probably graph things out and get a decent idea of the numbers per price point.

Certainly you would need to view the numbers with a healthy amount of skepticism, since it’s basically just an internet petition. It’s easy to sign up for something when there’s no real commitment for doing so. I think 10 to 20 percent that are actually ready, willing, and able to buy a Volt probably isn’t very far off, although I hope it isn’t much lower than 10 percent.

Personally, I picked the $30k price point when I signed up. If the often speculated $7500 tax credit materializes, I think I would probably consider $32.5k as close enough. I was hoping it would be a bit under $30k rather than a bit over, but c’est la vie…

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old man Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:02 am

Just made my daily move to AllCarsElectric and saw an atricle that grabbed my attention. RECHARGE your battery at the gas station. It has to do with an new fluid electrolyte that can be pumped out when depleted and have recharged fluid pumped in. IF this new fluid is not an enviormentally toxic mixture it could have promise.

Or be another Eestor.

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+5 Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:04 am

“the controlling factor for the large majority of possible customers is going to be price ”

This is very true, but dont forget to factor in the 7500 tax credit to end up at $32k.. the average Prius is $27k, Malibu is around $25k.. so not too far off in terms of monthly car payments. It would help if the $7500 tax credit could be used as a down payment.

This will be a very convenient car, a car that you can refuel in your garage.. and for many many owners a car that will very rarely visit a gas station. Many people will make the extra leap of the cost for that convenience.

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GM Volt Fan Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:06 am

I think some excellent marketing and advertising by GM could certainly help create a lot of demand for EVs like the Volt. GM has been working very hard to optimize the Volt itself. The marketing people need to work just as hard to optimize the advertising, sales materials, sales training, etc.

GM and their advertising people should be doing lots of research about how best to sell the Volt. The Volt is a different kind of car, so the general public is going to need good marketing so they can understand how the Volt works and feel comfortable with it, etc.

GM is getting fresh ideas for advertising from different ad agencies for the Chevrolet brand these days. This is good. I bet a few hungrier, smaller ad agencies might end up having better ideas than the big agencies that GM has had for years.

http://www.businessweek.com/autos/autobeat/archives/2009/10/gm_looking_at_n.html

Like in that TV show “Mad Men” … let the advertising pitches begin. Bob Lutz and the rest of the GM marketing team could make a big difference if they do their jobs right. Bob should insist on getting the best people possible to work on GM’s accounts … especially for the Volt.

As far as Chevy’s advertising goes…now, it’s “Let The Best IDEA Win” no matter where it comes from.

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Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:07 am

I thought people bought based on the monthly payment. I buy based on how many car parts I leave on the road behind me as I drive.

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+4 KUD Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:07 am

Rashiid I couldn’t have said it better.

I Just ordered my Solar System which was step one towards a VOLT for me. I plan on filling it up using my own Juice.

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+2 Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:12 am

According to the National Automobile Dealers Association, the average price of a new car sold in the United States is $28,400.

The Volt will be $4000 more than that, consider that the BEV premium.

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+3 Bearclaw Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:13 am

I hope there are enough folks who realize our economy is being drained by oil. I’m hoping to keep my CVT Insight and convince my wife to get rid of her car and buy the Volt. Is your Insight a MT or CVT?

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+3 mikeinatl. Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:20 am

A very good point RB.

Perhaps I should have said that DESIRE would be much higher for cars with Voltec type systems.

Desire, supply and price are all components of demand.

But I have zero desire for an all-electric car and a high level of desire for something with a Voltec type drive train. All other things being equal, Voltec is the best idea out there right now because it will be perfectly functional operating with today’s infrastructure. All I need to do is mount the charger box gizmo in my garage.

Range anxiety is a huge issue in my opinion.
Voltec solves that.

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+1 KUD Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:21 am

American Build and my Fuel!

Which is why I ordered my Solar System.

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+14 CorvetteGuy Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:21 am

The key phrase here is “screwing the middle eastern governments” who have been screwing with us and the price of oil for decades. Yeah, we need it… We created the demand… but they have more than taken advantage of our “addiction to oil”.

Before I die, I want to see Wolf Blitzer back in the middle east interviewing the Saudi oil sheiks and crazy Iranian dictators as they cry like little girls over the closing of a few of their stinking oil fields.

For me, that would be some vindication for the sacrafices of our troops.

End of story.

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+2 Starcast Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:22 am

I think right now there is very little demand. That demand must be created. Over time by bringing down cost and showing good quality this can be done. Cost is very important in the long run. Personaly demand for a all electric vehicle is zero. But that is just me, if I get a call and need to go somewhere I do not want to think “do I have enough range to go?”

I think demand for EREV can be very high, but BEV’s will never catch on in big numbers.

The cost of electric cars must come down to the price of ICE’s not the cost of gas going up. People can only pay so much and if you push up the cost of gas everything will crash even further then it is now.

The Volt is important because it is much more like driving a real car. You are not limited in range. The volt over comes all the down side of BEV’S

How much will the cost of ecectric go up with cap and tax? This could be a big problem. We need lower cost energy not higher. More electric cars will help lower the price of oil. This is good.

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DonC Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:22 am

The true demand for EREV and BEV will be determined by the cost of the cars and the cost gasoline.

You’re on a tear of late Rashiid. Yours has been the first post for a number of days!

On the all important question that Lyle poses here, let’s separate the short term and long term. In the longer term you’re absolutely right, demand will be set by the price of the car, the price of gas, and government incentives of various types. But don’t forget the car itself — and EV drive has many advantages — and of course the cache of the car.

But in the short run the calculus is probably different. My guess is that there is some number of crazy nuts (aka “enthusiasts”) who are not nearly as effected by price as the general populace. These folks are the initial targets for cars like the Volt or the Leaf or any of the other EVs which by necessity will be sold at higher price points. Many of the enthusiasts probably are on the list here and also on the list for the Leaf (but they probably won’t buy both).

How many of these people are there? My guess is 100k. I get that guesstimate by assuming that ten years ago in California there were about 2000 people who were genuinely interested in the EV1. Then I assume that this number has dramatically grown by a factor of 5 over the decade. That gives 10k, and, since CA is about 10% of the US population (though generally more likely to go for EVs), the total number of enthusiasts in all states would be 100k.

Of course these people need to be able to buy the car. In this economy a $40k+ is not that easy a sell, particularly since many like CJS heavily (and wrongly in my view) discount the tax rebate. One thing that would help with these initial cars would be if the government, as suggested here and in other placed, dropped the tax credit and substituted an instant rebate plan.

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+1 tom Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:29 am

I don’t have any doubt that the 50,000 on the wait list are folks committed to buying an EREV or BEV for their next car purchase when one is available and they can afford it. Some of the 50,000 can afford 40K, some can afford 20K and there are surely folks who can afford at different prices. I think all of this is moot until there real choices, and that time is coming.

There is more than enough demand to take up all of the initial production planned through 2012. What we can only make educated guess at beyond 2012 is the rate of improvement in Battery performance and affordability, and the price of oil. Also we can also assume a certain rate of growth in the percentage of people that understand the importance and perhaps sacrifice needed to end the importing of oil. My expectation on these points is that demand will exceed supply of these cars and that the ramp up in production will be much higher than the ‘experts’ now predict.

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+1 Starcast Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:34 am

Tom I have to agree.

I bet your like me and find it very od that the same people who will say “we need to get off imported oil” are against Drill here Drill now.

Sorry but if we stop importing oil because we save it or we drill for it. We still stop importing as much.

Oh Ya why can’t we do both???????????????

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+1 omnimoeish Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:42 am

That was kind of a sad figure for me when I read it. The world uses around 85 million barrels of oil per day. They are predicting that with all of the R&D money and efforts being put into EVs and battery research, we will only get that down by 4 MBD? Then I found this link.

http://www.opec.org/library/FAQs/PetrolIndustry/q2.htm

OPEC predicts world oil demand in 2030 to be 133 million barrels per day. So basically with all of our EVs, we are spitting in the wind. I don’t know if that’s a sustainable model over the next few decades seeings how according to the CIA website, we only have about 40 years of proven world oil reserves left, and yes, a huge portion of that is in Saudia Arabia, Iraq and other middle eastern countries. And that’s assuming we can economically and feasibly get to it all.

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+3 nasaman Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:42 am

From Lyle’s comments above, “A very recent Credit-Suisse report predicts 1.1% of global cars sales will be electric by 2015, and that EV sales will be worth $400 billion by 2030 and sales of lithium ion batteries will reach $100 billion by the same year.”

This jumped out at me as implying (simplistically) that Credit-Suisse believes the Gen 1 Volt’s initial cost ratios (car = $40,000, battery = $10,000) may still hold true for electric cars in general in 2030! So if this 4:1 ratio holds true thru 2030 and the average Li-Ion battery drops to $5K by then, the total EV or EREV vehicle cost should drop to around $20K by 2030 ….which most people will be able to afford!!!

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-2 Tom Harwick Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:42 am

Not really. While the Volt at $32k will only be $4k more expensive than the average car sold, the real price of the Volt will be more like $39k. Only 250,000 cars will qualify for the govt subsidy. 250,000 cars account for 0.1% of the cars on the road, and will have no effect on oil imports.

The Volt (and other PHEVs) will be a significant contribution to America’s future when they start selling millions and tens of millions per year. So that $39k full price needs to come down, and nothing significant will happen until it does.

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+1 GLV Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:02 am

I can’t speak for anyone else, but when I need to purchase a vehicle, I tend to use the following locic.

What will I use the vehicle for? (primarily commuting, or trips, or a combination) Because I have elementary age children, this determines the overall size I need.

Do I have a manufacturing company preference? (GM, Ford, Chrysler, etc…) This just makes it easier for me to know where to go look.

What is my monthly payment limit? I use this to back figure the maximum price I can afford.

Which vehicle looks the nicest to me that falls within the above limits?

At this point, if I’m searching for a commuting vehicle, and my monthly payment limit allows me to choose a vehicle that costs upwards of $34,000, I will definitely be looking at the Volt. GM is my prefered maker and I have a sincere interest in reducing our need for foriegn oil. The key thing here is that chosing the Volt (for me), would have more to do with the vehicle satisfying my transportation needs that whether or not it reduced my carbon footprint…but, as I said, that’s just me.

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+1 DaV8or Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:08 am

You’re going to need to live a very long life and Wolf probably isn’t going to make it that long. Those oil fields will stay open until they are dry. Their closing will have almost nothing to do with some electric cars in America.

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Loboc Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:12 am

CDs? I haven’t bought a CD in years. MP3 has largely replaced them. If it’s only available on CD, then, I will buy one and convert it to MP3. But that is rare.

I am just reinforcing the point.

Cars are not purchased based on cost alone. True cost (especially operation cost) is not even a consideration to most people. “Get the best I can for the monthly payment I can afford.” is what I see most often. The cost of replacing those 20″ 50-series tires is not even considered. MPG gets a lot of hype, but, most people don’t care that much.

Cars are purchased for emotional, not financial, reasons.

-Does it look good to me?
-Does it increase my perceived status by others? (This includes perception of ‘green’ living.)
-Does it function for my needs?
-Does it blow my budget? Is usually not fully analyzed.

People will chose the same model over and over simply because the a/c controls are different between Ford and GM. I usually buy Chrysler products because this is one of my ‘reasons’. I am on my 4th Dakota because it works for me. My mother-in-law always buys Fords.

If Chrysler had a ‘Volt equivalent’ I would be over on their fan site instead of this one. Alas, I fear that Chrysler/Fiat won’t be long for this world. Looks like their EV program is toast. That 200C was looking pretty sweet.

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Dave K. Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:13 am

Think anyone will want either of these?

http://garfwod.250free.com/volt-ampera.jpg

=D~

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+4 Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:15 am

DonC:

“Crazy nuts”? Gee, you’re talking about me. And I am NOT going to buy a Leaf.

I went by the local Chevy dealer yesterday, and the huge electric billboard next to the freeway proclaimed, “Chevy Traverse $37,108″.

If people will pay $37K for a Traverse (LOL), I assume quite a few will pay slightly less for a Volt, after the tax credit. Or at least I hope so.

Thousands of people are still shelling out big bucks for Benzes, BMWs, Lexuses, etc., etc. In my neighborhood, a Prius is as much or more of a status symbol than a Benz 500 or a BMW 750. Maybe not for everybody, but the dynamic is certainly there. GM will sell all of the Volts they can make for the first several years.

Bottom line? LJGTVWOTR!! NPNS!

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:16 am

Herm:

Damn right! +1

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+1 Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:17 am

mikeinati:

I totally agree.

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:18 am

Jason:

Good point! +1

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:20 am

koz:

Exactly. +1

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:23 am

CDAVIS:

God send that it shall be true.

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+2 Loboc Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:24 am

People buy Prius because of ‘green’ status.

At $2.20/gallon, nobody cares about gas mileage. It’s only about 350 bucks a year between 50mpg and 30mpg @ 2.20/gallon.

Personally, for $350 I’d rather drive a Malibu than a butt-ugly Prius.

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+1 Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:27 am

tom:

I sure hope so. +1

As Tagamet might say, “From your lips to God’s ears”.

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+1 Larry McFall Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:33 am

What is the TRUE DEMAND for EV? How in the hell does anybody know what the TRUE demand is when nobody has made any that WE THE PEOPLE can see and/or drive. Is this going to be another big guesstimate workshop that many will spend money and act important.

Stay at the workshop where the Volt is being made and quit trying to guess what we want and make a market for the Volt. Our tax payers have already given much money now use it to get rid of this glut for oil.

I imagine that the oil prices will just magically go down which will make us all feel so good that we now can drive our big GM gas hogs without get high blood presure and of course, the new GM will do what it has always has done, build BIG.

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+1 Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:34 am

omnimoeish:

Thanks for the excellent link. All of your comments only reinforce my belief that the price of oil, gasoline, and diesel have nowhere to go but up. So, any car company which plans to survive had better get very serious about Volt type projects.

Even if the numbers are right, and EVs only remove 4MBD from 133MBD of demand, it’s a whole lot better to be part of the solution than part of the problem.

If that’s spitting in the wind, I’ll spit as much as I can, LOL.

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+2 stuart22 Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:41 am

My take is that demand for pure electrics will be far lower than interest due to the obvious reasons of reduced range coupled with unacceptably long recharging time. These two factors need to be solved for there to be chance of EVs making any significant impact to the overall automobile market. Until then, demand will remain low. I think Nissan is blowing smoke out of their tailpipe if they think the LEAF is going to find market success,

I don’t feel higher cost is necessarily an insurmountable hurdle for EVs. It won’t be for those manufacturers who promote their virtues over standard cars in comfort areas such as smoothness and quietness; performance areas such as nimble handling due to the low center of gravity and strong acceleration. Oh — let’s not forget the freedom from worrying about spikes in gas prices.

EREV’s like the Volt have the best chance of making an immediate impact on the automobile market because they don’t require their owner to make a major life change in how they use their car on a daily basis. Range anxiety is absent. The only change will be remembering to plug in, but the car will still work if they forget. The great motivator to having owners remember to plug in will be the increased freedom from having to buy gasoline, not to mention the increased savings.

I believe the superior advantages the Volt will offer a car buyer will overcome resistance to its relatively high price tag. Too bad it’s a Chevrolet and not a Buick or Caddy.

The Volt will open the door to the future for electric powered cars and trucks. Bottlenecks in battery supply and lack of model choices will be the roadblocks to that future from becoming more in the present. The demand for these products is sitting on the fence waiting for it to happen.

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+1 Jaime Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:43 am

Its been shown time and time again only a small percentage of people that sign up for “interest lists” or “want lists” actually purchase the product down the line. Its easy to say you are interested but until you withdraw cold cash from your bank and put some skin in the game, its all just theory.

Actual demand will be shown by sales numbers once these products hit the open market. And that will be determined by price…

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+4 tom Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:46 am

On on hand, that may be why GM isn’t in a hurry to ramp up production, and exceed cars that will get the credit.

I suspect the government will extend the credit program.

I just wish they would only do it for cars built in the US, including the Leaf.

Every car sold that can drive 100,000 miles AER, thats saves 3,000 gallons or 75 barrels not imported. So that is at $100 barrel / $7500 not leaving the country. Pretty funny how that works out.

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Bryan Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:48 am

Ted made the point that price doesn’t always matter citing the number of obses SUVs on the roads. It is interesting to note that the number of SUVs increased 287% in the last 10 years. A lot of that was due to a government tax incentive. There’s a little 6000 pound truck law that allows a business to completely depreciate the truck over 3 years. The intent of the law was to enable small businesses to afford equipment they needed to do business. Unfortunately, SUVs also qualify. It would be interesting to find out how many owners of luxury SUVs are also small business owners. The good news is that tax incentives do stimulate vehicle sales. Perhaps that will be the case here as well.

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Loboc Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:51 am

I doubt that 2 percent that are ‘on the list’ will actually buy a Volt. I say this because of availability and their needs will/have changed since adding their avitar name to an anonymous list. A lot can happen between 2007 and 2012 or so when you can actually see one in a showroom.

I also think ‘the list’ is padded by trolls. That last 10,000 went really fast.

I believe that most will buy an EV sometime in the future. I think EV general availability and use is decades away, however.

Heck, we haven’t even sat in one yet (except vicariously through Lyle) much less driven one. How do we know if the power, drivability, room, and all other things automotive will be right?

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Rashiid Amul Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:53 am

Ted in Fort Myers,

I believe price is a factor in the decision making process.
I would love the Tesla. Great range for me, sporting, convertible, and gorgeous. The only thing stopping me from buying it is the price.

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+3 tom Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:03 am

Thanks for seeing the light Starcast! I’m for anything that creates jobs and investment in our economy. We are in big trouble with trade and budget deficits.

We have no dicipline. Obama wants to have any extra 500 (250 *2) to folks on social security at a time when we have the worst deficit every. He just doesn’t care about the future, just having people love him now. His reasoning is SS has no inflation adjustment because energy prices fell and elderly spend more on medical then energy. By that rationing fiscal year 2010 (began Oct 1) is already seeing the huge runup in energy costs. So if in one year the cost of living is up 5% but take out energy it may be up 2%, then that means SS should only get 2% raise?

Probably they need a new basket of goods to determine cost of living increases for retired folks.

In any event Obama keeps spending on things that don’t have multiplier effect, so our tax dollars are going to washington, having an expensive night on the town, and not doing much to create jobs out there in the economy.

Investing in alternative energy and electric mobility will have paybacks in saving our economy.

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+1 Frank B Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:04 am

“It would help if the $7500 tax credit could be used as a down payment.”

I agree completely and it would really move the average person, in my view anyway, if the buyer could either assign the tax credit to the dealer or to GM and make it an instant rebate instead of having it tied into end of year taxes. Remember, when you buy and finance the car you are still looking at the $40K number which results in higher payments. You can say that overall it only cost you $32K, but up front it’s really $40K.

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kdawg Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:06 am

We have polled on this site before “What do you find best about electric cars”. I forget all the choices but a lot of them were the ones listed above. I think another one of them was geek-factor/hi-tech (which I like). All of them hold a certain percentage of the motivational factor, but the real question is, when someone is on the car lot, what will it take for a new car buyer to choose an electric car vs. a traditional ICE car? At what premium will they pay for it? What sacrifices are they willing to make (opportunity costs) to go electric?

Hindsite will be 20/20, and no-one’s crystal ball is powerful enough to make accurate predictions. I’ll repeat the mantra, let’s just get them on the road, and let the chips fall where they may.

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+1 melee Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:11 am

The LEAF or other BEVs may be successful; they fit a niche that certainly exists: multiple-car households with very regular and short commutes. I don’t know how big that niche is, but I’d imagine it’s enough to support a model or two. But outside that niche they will be spectacularly unsuccessful until the refueling problem is solved. An EREV architecture, on the other hand, can work for anyone, subject to price.

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Mike-o-Matic Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:19 am

Yikes! 37k for a ‘ute!

I just recently turned forty, and sadly, I expect to live long enough to witness the cost of a new car exceed what I paid for my first house. Which was just 13 years go. :-[

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FLASH Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:20 am

Kinda off topic y’all, but I’m pretty excited about it–We are lucky enough to be driving the 2011 FORD FIESTA today at JORDAN FORD in SAN ANTONIO. It’s here all day, and we have an AWESOME road course set up. One of the Ford presidents is even flying in after lunch. I will drive it after lunch myself, but I did see the cluster display–44.9 MPG–realtime. This particular model is a 4dr hatchback, though. Was hoping for the 3dr instead of the 5dr………… Ford even sent us a whole set of continentals–winter tread, which has been great for drifting this morning……..

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+1 old man Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:25 am

The answer to that problem is to take out 2 loans. One for the $7,500.00 which would have a no payment term for a period of time which would give the buyer the time to collect the tax credit check and the other with a normal payment plan.

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+1 solo Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:31 am

Noel Park wrote:

Thousands of people are still shelling out big bucks for Benzes, BMWs, Lexuses, etc., etc. In my neighborhood, a Prius is as much or more of a status symbol than a Benz 500 or a BMW 750. Maybe not for everybody, but the dynamic is certainly there. GM will sell all of the Volts they can make for the first several years.

Sir, I hope you are right but I feel you are wrong. I bet in your neighborhood an ‘American’ car of any type, even if it ran on swamp water, would not be a status symbol just because it carries a domestic nameplate.

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old man Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:36 am

Yes!! B U T I fear the Ampera is going to be changed much like the Volt has been due to the European design of not empaling pedistreans. You know the hood and on the Ampera you have the head light wrappings as neat impalers.

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-1 Jaime Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:41 am

10 years from now gas cars will still probably account for 99.5% of all sales.

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Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:43 am

That Fiesta will be popular, if we stop buying cars by the pound.

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old man Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:46 am

omnimoeish

There is still hope as wind,solar,natural gas, and geothermal will also grow and as a result lower the MBD. And ofcourse Hydrogen is still a potential player as well as bio fuels from algea.

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+1 Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:49 am

Ted:

Amen.

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:54 am

Mike:

Well I hate to date myself, but I’ve already lived that long, LOL.

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+2 Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:59 am

solo:

Looking around California, I would have to say that such is true in most neighborhoods. If we can’t change that, we’re doomed in the long run, IMHO.

In my particular neighborhood, there are 4 Corvettes (not including mine, which are stored elsewhere), a 2008 Cadillac, our old SS, and a number of Ford and Chevy pickups, vans and ‘utes withing a 1 block radius. Actually I’m glad you raised this, because thinking about it makes me feel a little better. You are quite right that they are still outnumbered by the “imports”, however.

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:05 pm

Bryan:

Actually, it was 1 year. My wife is an RN at a majopr local hospital, and she said that half of the Dr’s wives were driving Hummers, LOL.

We bought a Chevy 1500 for our (legitimate) small business in 2006. Very conveniently, the GVW was listed at 6002#, hehehe.

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+1 Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:08 pm

old man:

I agree. We’re gonna figure it out, or at least maybe our kids will. It’s just that, as always, it’s gonna be a lot easier if we start getting serious sooner rather than later.

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FLASH Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:09 pm

AGREED Herm–It seems like they are finally getting back to the high or ‘higher’ atleast, mpgs of yesteryear. As far as Ford goes, vehicles like the ‘other’ Fiesta, Festiva, and Aspire come to mind. They are headed in the right direction. However IMO, 2010, 11, &12 can’t get here fast enough…….

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+1 Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:12 pm

“People buy Prius because of ‘green’ status.”

I rest my case.

If GM offered a car with equivalent mileage to the Pruis, we would have been driving one long since.

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CDAVIS Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:13 pm

_____________________________________________________
Yes…as Generation 1 collector’s cars…they will end up being worth more than MSRP new.

The 2020 Volt/Aptera line (assuming GM survived the Electric Car Revolution) will be BEV (no gas RE), 200+ mile AER, <20min fast charge for 80% SOC, <$ than equal class gas cars.

Generation 2+ Electric Cars will evolve at a quicker cycle rate than what traditonal car makers are accustomed to with gas cars…it will be more along of the lines of modern Electric Appliances (think: large screen TVs, digital cameras, laptop computers)…it will be interesting to see which car makers are able to survive that kind of quickly evolving environment…AKA…Disruptive Event.
______________________________________________________

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:13 pm

This is a great thread. DR. D. and all of you bloggers are really on a roll today. More power to you!

Hello GM? Pay attention!

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Starcast Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:14 pm

Mike:

I hate to say it but that happened to me back in 2001

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dagwood55 Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:19 pm

GM has misunderstood the automovitve business and competed so badly that it has actually gone bankrupt. GM has entirely misread the market for hybrid vehicles; theirs sell perhaps 1500 per month while Toyota sells 15K and more of theirs per month and makes money doing it.

Why would any conference on advanced technology automobiles want an exec from GM as a speaker? Shouldn’t they be looking to people who can tell them about solutions that work and are profitable?

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Jim I Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:30 pm

That really sounds good nasaman, but:

I don’t ever really remember car prices going down….

My brand new, fully loaded 1973 Ford Mustang Mach 1 cost $4,350.00 out the door. My 2004 Chrysler Crossfire was $35.5K!

IMHO, the price of the Volt will not change that much. Assuming battery costs go down, they will add other features and leave the pricing pretty close to what it was. Otherwise, the people that bought the Gen-1 will have a real problem at re-sale time…..

An entirely new lower cost Voltec vehicle will be introduced. It will have a low base price, for advertising purposes, just like the Prius, but will have all the options, to get the price & profit up!

The next few years are going to be really interesting!!!

NPNS

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Jim I Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:35 pm

Ted:

I think a lot of those big huge vehicles were leased, when they were doing the “3 years for $300 per month” giveaways.

It was fun to drive a big car when the leasing companies were bending over backwards to get you into them.

But those days are pretty much over…….

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Streetlight Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:36 pm

Three unknown attributes determine in the main a PEV marketplace-
1) competitiveness to established ICE’s; 2) production capability; and, 3) infrastructure. Which should be given priority, perhaps the competitiveness factor. But can production keep pace with the latest and greatest? Or will lack of infrastructure keep inventories high? In other words, attempting to predicate performance slopes out a year, two years, three… for any of these three attributes is a not-so-minor challenge.
Of the luminaries named in this article Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm is the most impressive. No CEO, lobbyist, or VC is in any better position to evaluate automotive economics.
Given the continuing string of 2009 EV announcements this conference should be a sell-out.

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Shawn Marshall Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:56 pm

Carcus

Succinctly exactamundo – (don’t pick on the made-up word)

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Shawn Marshall Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 12:59 pm

This conference is a vanity fluff piece – it has nothing at all to do with the future of (X)EVs and neither does the Exalted ONE.

It’s all about the battery. GO IBM!

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+1 lektriktadpole Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 1:09 pm

I hate to agree with you on this point but you are right. However, the timing of “dry” could be very significantly affected by a U.S. and especially a global transition to electric vehicles. Actually, slowing the consumption rate down is probably good for the oil producers as well as the consumers. It would allow the producers a greater amount of time to transform their economies to a post oil model. A sudden world shortage of oil will actually hurt us all, but the producers would get a windfall for a few years with high prices before the taps run dry.

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Tall Pete Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

Sure, monthly payment is an important factor. But when you get to the showroom and see something that will suit your needs better, most people will agree to go higher than they first thought. I know I do.

(Within reason of course. I cannot spend twice what I expected. But I can go 10 to 20% most of the time)

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Mike-o-Matic Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 1:16 pm

“exactamundo”

If it’s good enough for Fonzie, it’s good enough for me.

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Jim I Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 1:18 pm

I don’t know if I really agree with you you Jim.

I think CD’s replaced more cassette tapes than albums in the beginning, as the tapes would jam up when hot, and break when cold…

Flat panel TV’s did not really start selling in high volumes, until they hit a particular price point. You can buy a 50″ HD widescreen for about $700. When the price was $2K, they did not sell in the volumes they are now….

And look at Blu-Ray DVD’s. Yes the players have come down in cost, but the movies are still double the price of a standard DVD, so sales have not yet taken off, as expected. When the movie producers drop the price of the movies, regular DVD’s will disappear in a very short time. The technology is there and proven, but because of the pricing, the excitement isn’t.

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Bobby Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 1:20 pm

I suggest you alter your logic from “monthly payment” mentality to how much money you have in the bank. That will narrow the field for you. Never finance a car.

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lektriktadpole Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

Well, there is a flipside. I have been here since about the second week after the concept Volt was revealed and I have not put my name on the “waiting list”. I spend most of my drive miles taking care of my elderly father and I know that won’t last forever but I don’t know when. So whether I buy and what I buy is not something I can predict. But I WANT a Volt really, really bad. But my future drive pattern may be less than 10 miles per day. It would be better for the Volt to be in someone else’s hands so it could save more oil. But then I still WANT one. So, will I be logical, or will I be impulsive? Many Volts will be sold to people not on the “waiting list” as well as to many not living on the internet.

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+1 lektriktadpole Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 1:37 pm

I think that there will be a big discussion of how to predict future ICE vehicle demand. How much cheaper will they have to be to continue to sell what will be by then a clearly inferior technology? Pure gassers will only be desirable at the bottom of the market.

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+1 lektriktadpole Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 1:47 pm

This was the promise of the zinc-air battery design of Metallic Power Co. about ten years ago. Just zinc oxide, water and potassium hydroxide. You could even get a regenerator for your own garage. Don’t underestimate how large of a hurdle refitting every gas station in America is. That is why electric will happen and hydrogen won’t. It is also the reason why almost all new synfuels research is going towards producing gasoline identical synthetics rather than replacements like ethanol.

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+1 Jim in PA Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 1:59 pm

Glad to say that here in Pittsburgh the vast majority of people still drive domestics.

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+1 LeoK Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 2:02 pm

Agree that the price/value relationship is critically important – and that the outside economics of fuel costs have a direct correlation.

However, the VOLT does represent a quantum leap forward in the evolution of the Electric Vehicle that will, IMHO, be the tipping point for retail demand. The VOLT, with its VOLT-tec EREV powertrain, offers a normal looking, yet stylish and unique, exterior package that will make it a no-compromise alternative to an ICE sedan.

In the past, EV’s have been funky looking at best, typically smaller interior spaces with limited cargo space, along with limited driving range. The VOLT changes all that. This car is a comfortable 4-Door Sedan (yes, I can already hear the cries for a sporty coupe, pickup or mini-van type alternative – but GM has to start somewhere and the 4-Door Sedan is at the heart of the market). The car offers comfortable interior space, a decent size trunk, and an overall size that will not make its owners feel like they are sacrificing for the greater good. For conservative consumers, the VOLT will blend in enough not to be noticed; and it offers those seeking to make a statement to show other drivers they are driving something different.

Bottom line… the VOLT takes the EV into the mainstream of the U.S. auto market for the first time – and will tip the scales over the next few years to higher demand than anyone anticipates… all despite what may be considered a high starting price point.

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Loboc Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 2:03 pm

The price of an ‘average’ car pretty much stays in the same range as the average income. It has to.

Comparing 1970 dollars to 2009 dollars means that inflation has to be accounted.

I would much rather have a clean 2009 car than a 1970 car for normal driving. Now, if you got me a mint ‘70 ‘Vette, I wouldn’t complain much

Some of my new cars:
1976 Olds Starfire ~$6k
1988 Merc Cougar ~$20k
1992 Merc Grand Marquis ~24k
1999 Dodge Intrepid ~27k

They all went ‘up’ in price, but, the also were about 1/4 my income at the time.

2012 Volt @ 43k is way more than 1/4 my expected 2012 income.

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+5 StevePA Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 2:10 pm

Just a hunch – when all is said and done and the Volts are flowing off the production lines and flying out the showroom doors, the perception of GM engineering will appreciate considerably.

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+1 V=IR Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 2:11 pm

Must be lonely on your planet.

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Dave G Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 2:29 pm

Demand for electric vehicles won’t be known until we have a popular electric vehicle.

That would be like predicting demand for MP3 players before there was an iPod. Ten years ago, most people way under-predicted this. And note that it had little to do with price – iPods aren’t cheap, but they are massively popular.

Let’s hope the Volt becomes popular.

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Dave G Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 2:39 pm

Yes, exactly.

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+1 Khadgars Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

I agree with you Tom, except the point of blaming it on Obama. Republicans have been the worst by far in regards to deficit spending. They just usually end up funding adventures over seas that adds nothing for the American people.

Look at it this way, of the 10 trillion dollars in national debt we have (soon to be 12) the VAST majority of it was acquired under Ronald Regan, George H.W Bush and George W Bush.

Only Bill Clinton, sandwiched in between 20 years of Republican rule, attempted to balance the budget, which he did through specific tax increases and not ballooning the military budget.

Much of the huge deficits we are seeing under Obama (not all of course) were created during the Bush era including Medicare part D which was unpaid for, both Iraq and Afgan wars which were also unpaid for, and a host of other pet projects that didn’t come into the books until the last years of Bush’s presidency.

I’m not saying Obama is fault less in regards to spending but what people are not understanding (just like in California), in order to balance the budget, taxes WILL have to be increased, the military budget HAS to be reduced significantly, and the government will HAVE to find ways to reduce it’s overhead with many of it’s primary services.

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+1 Bobby Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 2:52 pm

The debt free, financially responsible planet? Yes it is actually.

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+1 LeoK Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 2:54 pm

Lyle, we keep trying….

3:51 [Comment From Marc Geller ]
Very pleased to see the progress being reported. When do you foresee placing cars with some “pioneers” or “influencers” for short-term trials?

3:52 Tony Posawatz: During the 2010 calendar year in preparation for our end of year production launch, we intend to conduct events with prospective customers. The plan is being worked as we speak. Stay tuned.

Message to TONY: We’re still tuned in!…. and waiting patiently:-)

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 3:18 pm

LeoK:

Very encouraging news. I’m not so sure about “patiently” though, LOL.

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+3 Dave G Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 3:19 pm

kdawg asks: “What sacrifices are they willing to make (opportunity costs) to go electric?”
————————————————————————————–
Most people won’t sacrifice anything in terms of convenience, dependability, or other lifestyle issues.

This is why I feel so strongly about extended range electric vehicles. From a lifestyle perspective, there are no down-sides. And when people realize they only have to go to the gas station every 3 months, everyone will want one.

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Starcast Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 3:28 pm

The budget was balanced by the House and Senate that were R’s not Ds. Clinton did not have a balanced anything his first 2 years with the Ds.

Lets see 780B waste bill and 400B+ budget Ominibus bill signed by Obama and 350B of tarp spent by Obama. That totals all the new debit this year.

Lets be honest the House and Senate control spending. A Vote for any House D is a vote for Nancy in 2010.

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+2 CDAVIS Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 3:39 pm

______________________________________________________
Looks like Jim scored a good one on the livechat:

GM’s Tony Posawatz said:
“Volt will not follow the throttle position… We are about ready to expose people to this experience”

[Comment From Jim I ]
On gm-volt.com, we have wondered about how the ICE will operate during charge sustaining mode. Will the engine run at just a few “optimal” speeds, or will it be tied to the throttle, like an ordinary vehicle?

Tony Posawatz: In charge sustaining or range extender mode, the Volt will not follow the throttle position. During our development trip this week, our team was working on refining this operation. The challenge is to select the right operating points (RPMs) that are 1.) efficient, 2.) pleasing to the driver, and 3.) meet regulatory requirements. We are about ready to expose people to this experience.
______________________________________________________

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Van Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 3:46 pm

Essentially all the top 10 high mileage cars according to EPA ratings are hybrids. So to the extend the tipping point for similarly priced vehicles is mileage, then the hybrid will win. On the other hand, if acceleration is seen as important (i.e folks who opt for the V-6 rather than the 4 banger) the current zero to 60 in 10 second hybrids will not win. I sure hope the Volt hits its design goal of under 9 seconds. Wouldn’t it be nice if Volt adds could say, take a look at the Volt, it is both more powerful and more economical than the Plug-in Prius.

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+1 Jim I Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 3:55 pm

Well then I guess I will not need a sound maker for the blind people when I am at a stop sign, as the engine “purring” at 2000 RPM should make them aware of my position……

Seriously, Tony’s point #3 will probably probably cover that scenario. I doubt that local ordinances will allow screaming engines while stopped in city traffic. Unless thay have figured out how to muffle the sound really well.

I was just as interested by his comment: “We are about ready to expose people to this experience.” All I have to say to that is: BRING IT ON!!!!!!

And Lyle: You can thank me later for giving the gm-volt.com site a shameless plug!!!! Actually, you could give me a ride in the elecrtric mini-e sometime, and I will call it even…..
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 4:17 pm

4:23
Phil Colley:
4:20 [CaptJackSparrow]
To either of you… Is the battery warranty seperate from the cars warranty
4:24
Tony Posawatz: The Volt battery warranty will be a minimum of eight years, which is longer than most other component warranties and much longer than battery electric vehicle warranties will be.
4:24
felixkramer: Most people don’t know that hybrids, for example, have 4 or 5 different warranties; the battery is covered under the emissions warranty, while the car waranty for most vehicles is much shorter. PHEVs will have similar regulatory requirements.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Good info on the batt pack warranty.
I also asked how the warranty gets a negative hit in CS mode but they didn’t respond.

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+1 CorvetteGuy Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 4:49 pm

It can be done sooner than YOU think:

____________________________

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration

The United States imports approximately 62 percent of its oil. Canada supplies approximately 20 percent of these imports, and Mexico contributes 10 percent. But over 30 percent come from regimes that are less friendly or stable, including Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, Iraq, and Algeria (respectively the 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th largest oil importers to the United States).

____________________________

If the U.S. cuts out 30% of its imported oil (specifically from those regions controlled by crazy dictators), that could boost the American Economy by billions of dollars annually.

By moving the majority of “personal automobiles” to electricity, including hybrids, we are much closer to that goal. It can be done. There will always be gas-powered trucks and machinery, and even gas powered cars, but if the majority gets on board, then oil shieks can drink their premium grade all they want.

Try to keep up with the long range goal here.

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GM Volt Fan Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 4:50 pm

People who are planning on buying a Volt in 2011 should start making “finance payments” every month right NOW. Simply set aside $400-500 a month or however much you can afford … especially if you already have cars that are paid off. Accountants call it a “sinking fund”. The more of your Volt you can pay for with CASH the more you’ll save in the long run. Financing a car IS expensive. That interest you pay the bank for financing company ADDS UP.

People should be “financing” (saving for) their NEXT car just as soon as their current car is paid off. You are going to have to buy a new car in 5-10 years anyway. Might as well get an early start.

If you set aside enough every month before you buy the car, you could have the great feeling of simply writing a check for the full price of the car. Wouldn’t that be cool? Screw over the greedy bankers who will NOT be getting your hard earned money … not for cars anyway.

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Van Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 4:54 pm

From the chat: Tony says, ” We are about ready to expose people to this experience.” He was referring to allow folks to drive the Volt in charge sustaining mode and experience throttle response of the drive motor and ICE response to battery SOC and rate of draw. Now if I might be so bold, my guess is “about ready” refers to before the end of the year.

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carcus1 Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 4:57 pm

I thought the answers on this interview seemed a little more up front than what we’ve seen in the past.

Did you notice the 5,000 cycle life prediction?

That seems like a big number to me. If they’re really able to get that, that’s very positive for the volt. If the volt’s battery went through a full cycle every day of it’s life that would be 13.7 years!

But, as you noted, ..we don’t know the effect on cycles when the genset is running.

(Nor do we know if they are expecting any calender life beyond the 8 (10?) years.)
/Sure looks like they are expecting quite a bit more out of the battery than the 5 to 6 years Nissan is talking about.

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+1 CorvetteGuy Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:03 pm

Hey Noel-

You are right on all points.

If you get a chance, check out the New Equinox LTZ for about $35,000 — it has a lot of the interior gizmos that the VOLT is supposed to have (except the electric drive system, of course). And it has a bit of the “look” of the VOLT interior; steering wheel, audio buttons, a/c vent placement and styling…

Fit and finish is far better than last year’s model. Not quite as good as the Camaro, but still noteworthy. The Equinox is another hit for GM. I can’t wait to see how nice the interior is on the VOLT.

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Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:13 pm

I find the Prius beautiful, and I also like the Malibu.. the Prius can be had for $22k new, same as a Malibu. Both of these are excellent safe family cars, the Prius has the edge because of the hatchback, mileage and proven 300k miles durability. I get tired of people saying the Prius is ugly, it is not.

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+1 Dan Petit Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:17 pm

Exceptional chat today. I really missed being here. (Had to run 2 seminars back to back today starting at 5 am.)

What’s demand going to be?
I really think that demand is terribly terribly under considered and improperly anticipated. Once several Volts are out here in our hands, all the remaining credibility for everyone else to understand will fall into line immediately. Then, the additional remaining question, it seems to me, is not just if I can afford a Volt, but, how much New GM stock can I afford too. (401k rollovers are all out there, and, you account managers ought to get up to speed PDQ about all this for the benefit or your customers!!)

I’m anticipating the fuel savings average at $200 a month. Adding that to the car payment I already make ($348), and, a Volt payment is not that much more.

The rest of America will soon realize that as well, with
“Seeing is believing”.

Thank you Mr. Posawatz, for the exceptional technical details!!
We all appreciate you and GM tremendously!!!

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+1 Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:18 pm

If everybody did that, everyone would drive a 2 year old used Corolla.. if you have to pay real money for a car you really balance your needs and wants. Our economy would collapse.

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Luke Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:19 pm

The list is a good guide, but it’s not universal. For instance, my personal version goes like this:
-Does it function for my needs?
-Is it good enough to warrant a car payment?
-Does it look good to me?
-Does it DECREASE my perceived status by others? (This includes perception of ‘green’ living.)

In other words, I don’t think a car could possibly improve my status — but driving around in a rusted out junker with piles of trash on the seats could undo people’s first impressions of me.

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-1 stas peterson Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:20 pm

There is a lot of very non realistic anticipation in this is group and that has a faith near certitude of it being true. But that does not make it so.

First item, even the Peakists debate whether we have achieved it or are simply getting near reaching the peak. But what does that really mean? Only that we will have couple HUNDRED years of Oil left when we do, the same as we have had.

And that is if demand continues, but it will gradually die off to a low level about 15% of today’s demand. The only current remaining expanding and not contracting market for Oil, is the Transport sector. Volts, Priuses, and Fusions merely mark the path that most will follow well before ten years, never mind a few hundred.

Oil Demand will decline and very precipitously. China and India will motorize but with fuel efficient cars and that demand will not be as large as the demand the developed world will shed.

Clean Electricity is available in virtually unlimited quantities without using any fossil today, and choices will only expand to practically infinite within 30 years from now.

The Oil PRICE Crisis has lead many people to think the temporary condition of the past 35 years is reality. And that current prices bear any reflection to the actual cost of production. That is ridiculously wrong. The true cost of production for the typical barrel,along with a profit typical of the Fortune 500, is well under a dollar a gallon. Business men may be display avarice; but it takes politicians to display no limits on greed.

And it will return there. And remain there for the next hundred years sometime in the next decade or so.

No cartel can withstand the destruction of demand by half in such a period without having prices collapse and the cartel with it.. Indeed demand reductions of a mere few percent have lead to $4.50 oil being priced at $2.50. So can you really imagine what is coming?

Is it possible that a price spike to $4.50 or more is possible in the next few years? Certainly but it will endure for as short a time as it has historically done, only a few short months.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:23 pm

Here’s my swag on how they derived at 5000 cycles. Most cells are rated in the 80% @2000 cycles and 70% @3000 cycles DOD. They have designed the DOD to really only operate mostly at 50% @ ???? cycles DOD hence only 8KWh out of the 16KWh. This increases the cycle life immensely, BUT, because they do not know exactly how often the consumer may need to “dip into the reserve”, they must have calculated that 5000 cycles WILL be the average/expected/calculated/SWAG?

OK, that’s my SWAG at their SWAG.

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Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:25 pm

A BEV is not a like an ICE car in this regard, there really is no economy/efficiency penalty in a BEV that can do 0-60 in 7 seconds vs 10, at most the motor/inverter/cables may be 20lbs heavier. The battery will be oversized in both for long range and SOC considerations.

Weight is not much of a consideration either, but good tires and extreme aerodynamics is what will differentiate a BEV from another.

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Dan Petit Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:30 pm

One of my EV EE friends suggested that in some Lithium Ion chemistries, that in some cases, there are as many as 10,000 cycles down to 50% depth of discharge. No long term time range was described by him, however.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:37 pm

“take a look at the Volt, it is both more powerful and more economical than the Plug-in Prius.”

Huh? There’s an OEM’d plug in Prissy? Or are you talkin third party modded?

“Economical” is a broad term. Remember, a Prissy is $24,000.00 and the Volt will be $43,000.00.

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Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:43 pm

“I also asked how the warranty gets a negative hit in CS mode but they didn’t respond.”

Capt, I dont thing you need to worry about battery life.

Shallow cycling on the battery in CS mode will not affect its life, lets say anything under 10% of the SOC is shallow.

The things that affect battery life are:

1. Temperature.. you always want to keep lithium cells at room temperature.. cold will not hurt (may result in the cells being overcharged), it will lower capacity but heat over 130deg F will shorten the calendar life to around 1-3 years max.

2. Cycles.. 5000 cycles have been mentioned before, that would be 200k miles all electric. 5000 X 40 miles = 200k miles

3. Calendar life.. Tony just said 10 years, LG has said 15-20 years previously.. this is the big if that cannot be tested. Time will tell.

Lithium Ions, moving back and forth from the anode to cathode create friction and mechanical stresses from expansion/contraction.. this will pulverize the structure of the battery after a certain amount of cycles.. shallow cycling only involves the surface ions on the “plates”, not the deep stuff.. the structure of the plates is not affected much. I dont know why heat kills the life of Lithium batteries.

Optimally you should be sitting on top of the batteries inside the cab of the car.. if they get too hot you will know it and do something about it.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:44 pm

Well then 5000 cycles sound reasonable if the average/expected/calculated/SWAG events of “dip into the reserve” is around 50% of the time.

Typically cell mfgrs don’t quote at the 50% DOD range, at least I haven’t seen one yet in my searches.

I’m gonna guess the Leaf will dip to 70% DOD.

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+1 Bobby Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:45 pm

Its pretty sad that we are now to a point where not using credit and going into debt for a consumer purchase is a radical idea to some. This used to be the norm not too many years ago, and our ecomomy was fine back then.

Not everyone would drive a used car. I paid cash for all my new cars since for the last 15 years. I just decided to stop using debt long ago and instead of paying interest, I make it.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:50 pm

“Capt, I dont thing you need to worry about battery life.”

Yeah, that’s why I wanted Gen 1. The batt pack will be well over powered. I think next gen’s will get less simply because they will find that going past 50% DOD is gonna be OK and they’ll bring the batt pack KWh down.
Oh well, I have to wait for Gen 2 for me.

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:56 pm

CDAVIS:

Thanks for this. Surely the Volt itself must follow the throttle position? Does he mean that the “range extender” doesn’t? So I assume that it runs at some sort of “sweet spot” constant rpm, and the speed variation of the car is done through the battery and electric motor. Right? So we have the psychological issue of the car changing speed without the corresponding change in engine pitch? It would certainly not be a problem for me, and I think that it is an oversold problem in general.

Jim I:

I life in SoCal where people ride around on Hrleys with straight pipes all the time and the local authorities don’t seem to give a good g*****n. I doubt if they will ever even notice a Volt “idling” at 2000 rpm. “BRING IT ON!!!!!!” indeed.

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Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:57 pm

You will also see a faster drop in the quantity of gasoline refining.. cars are getting more efficient every year, look at the recent shutdown of the Sunoco refinery in New Jersey.

Shortages of gasoline may finally kill private aviation that still uses Avgas.

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+2 CaptJackSparrow Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 5:59 pm

That’s one of the problems in society. Typically the 20-35 year olds. Once their car is paid off, they go trade it in for the latest and greatest and stay in debt. I know many of them who do this. Some will even trade their cars in because the warranty is going to end. Sheeesh. My 96 Saturn has been paid off for many many years, it’s not the most pleasant looking car now but it get’s me to work and back reliably but that’s it’s purpose.

Damn, I sound like an ol geezer…..

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:01 pm

Herm:

It gives new meaning to “driving by the seat of your pants”, LOL.

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:02 pm

Dr. D.?

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:05 pm

I wish I could believe it, but I don’t.

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+1 CaptJackSparrow Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:09 pm

Or… “Blazing Saddles”!!!

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Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:44 pm

I read that somewhere, industry standard 70% DOD for the Leaf… but they are probably guessing.

The Leaf uses a 24kwh pack, they typical daily commute will use only 8kwh (where have we seen that number before?) so it will have a daily SOC of only 33%.. that pack may end up lasting longer than a Volts pack. .. depending on driving habits of course.

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CDAVIS Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:51 pm

______________________________________________________
Noel Park,
Correct…he must mean RE-RPM will not follow throttle position. That is good news because that means the Volt control algorithm will give RE-RPM efficiency high weight although the algorithm would also give some (lower) weight to diver expectation so that for example the RE does to kick into high RPM while the Volt is at a stop. Under this program profile, I would not be surprised to see 40+ mpg EPA in RE mode.
___________________________________________________

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Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 6:54 pm

Lol, BTW this 5000 number is nothing new, LG has mentioned it before.. the only reason Tony gave us THE firm number (besides the shame of being muzzled by GM legal) is that NGM does no cover it in the warranty. NGM expects never having to cover the 10 year – 150k mile warranty.

NGM’s philosophy is that the battery should last the life of the car, around 15-20 years. Many disagree on this, they want a cheaper battery that will last about 5-7 years then would have to be replaced. I dont know which way I lean on that.

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Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:00 pm

BTW, Musk (the Tesla guy) made the same point comparing the Volt vs the Tesla.. his argument was widely mis-understood.

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Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:02 pm

I suspect the coming plug-in option for the Prius will magically consume all of that $7500 tax credit.. Toyota is not run by dummies.

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+1 Herm Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:09 pm

GM has made contradictory statements on this before.. my personal take is that the Volt’s ICE will slow down or shut off when the car comes to a stop sign.. once you start moving the rpm will pick up to the optimal sweet point, but at no time do they want you to notice it is running. The system may even monitor if your windows are down and how loud the radio is playing before making the decision to ramp up the genset power output… probably what they were calibrating on yesterdays long distance run. Note that shutting off the genset and restarting it is not good in term of pollution, probably the EPA has got involved.

Engineers with laptops are dangerous.

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:12 pm

Captain:

LOL! Thanks. Every little bit of humor helps at this time of day. +1

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:20 pm

Herm:

I think that the Prius, Insight, Escape and Fusion hybrids, and even the Silverado 2 mode shut the engine down when the vehicle stops. I don’t think that this is much of an emissions problem unless they are stopped so long that the catalytic converter(s) cool off too much. They certainly have it worked out with EPA, CARB, et al.

Maybe the emissions saved by not idling offset those increased by cooling off the cats

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:23 pm

CDAVIS – 6:51:

Thanks. I agree that 40+ mpg seems quite doable. I am hoping that it will equal the Prius.

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Noel Park Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:24 pm

But I’m going to do whatever I can to help anyway.

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Khadgars Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:35 pm

Sorry but I’m with the others, the Prius hit every stick on it’s fall down the ugly tree.

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JEC Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:44 pm

Ted,

Why is this your mantra now? You bought a Prius in the past, so I assume you have had a change of heart on buying American?

I hear a lot of people talk-the-talk, but few follow through once they walk-the-lot.

Are you ready to dish out more money than a car is really worth, for all those good causes that are being vocalized here?

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JEC Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:46 pm

Hey!

I proposed this “electrolytic slurry” long ago. I was going to apply for a patent, but then someone told me it had already been done.

Darn

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Khadgars Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:48 pm

Why are you using $43k for the Volt in 2012? With rebate you’re looking at $32,500

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JEC Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 7:55 pm

I will join you in that same old geezer world, Cap’n.

I own a 1996 Nissan Altima, with 212,000 miles. It does exactly what it is supposed to do. Gets me from point A to point B.

She’s getting a little rusty, and I have started to cheap out on repairs. For example, a small hole was developing in my muffler, so I put a little JB weld on her and it is good as new (I know it is temporary, but hey if it gets me another 6-12 months, I feel like I am living the dream).

O2 sensor rusted out of the catalytic converter, so since I would have to replace both the O2 and Cat, I decided to use a little more JB Weld, and tack her in place. Been running for over a year with no problems.

People just need to stop throwing stuff away before its time. Using something, until it is really used up, is the best thing you can do for yourself and the environment.

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Texas Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:20 pm

So what is the true demand for EVs?

Near 0: $2 / gallon gasoline, EVs with less convenience than normal cars.

Nearly all: $10 / gallon gasoline, EVs with the same or better convenience than normal cars.

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+2 GM Volt Fan Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 8:49 pm

Check this out:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/14/business/energy-environment/14oil.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a7za4M_s67Z8

OPEC and the Saudis actually would like to be compensated because oil demand is lower now and could go a LOT lower in the future! Why? Because of climate change regulations and the fact that hybrids, ER-EVs, BEVs and other fuel efficiency technology will lower demand for oil even further in the next 20+ years.

I’m now convinced that the people at OPEC are flat out nuts.

They think they’re ENTITLED to get gigantic amounts of money for the damn oil that Earth’s geological evolution very fortunately put under THEIR feet. Unbelievable! They sound like spoiled trust fund babies whining about not getting a new Bentley every year or something. Jeez. Screw em!

Bring on the Volt! Let’s make MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of them just to piss off these damn people.

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Edwin Mang Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:12 pm

I have heard all of these point before .
Like when computers came out it cost to much it is just a toy .
No one can find a use for one its to hard to learn to program .
I just call it autistic and go forward .

God Bless

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+1 Roy Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 9:35 pm

Yes, I don’t understand all this guesswork and expert panels. All GM needs to do is the same thing as Fisker, Tata Motors, Tesla, Nissan and others do, and that is to nail down the price and start taking deposits. The deposit should be large enough to ensure just serious buyers but within easy range of most. I think $3k should be about right. This will be definitive proof of the potential market.

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-1 koz Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:10 pm

You’ve got to kidding. Do you really believe the majority of Prius buyers or car buying public feel it is an exceptionally good looking car. I’m sure you have some company, Herm, but not a lot. Most people dislike its looks, thus the vast number of comments that bother you, or are ambivalent to them. My guess is the largest response would be ambivalence. How many Priuses would be chosen over a Cadillac CTS, BMW 3 series, etc if they were the same price and got the same mileage? You can even assume the fit, finish,and performance has been degraded to the Prius’ level. I’m thinking not many buyers would CHOOSE the Prius for it’s superior looks.

While the lowest model Prius’ base price is $22+k, $25k is more representative of the average price paid.

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koz Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:24 pm

It’s not about the price. It’s not about the price. Better gas mileage is not just about $. It’s not about the price.

I’m not sure your definition of “green” statement, but that invokes the idea of a poser choosing for fashion. If this is what is meant, then it is ill-conceived one dimensional logic. Unfortunately a lot of people are victim of this but many will follow in time. If today’s $ and only an individual’s immediate interests are used to evaluate a car purchase, then EV’s will never make it out of tge starting gate unless somebody else picks up more of the tab in the beginning.

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koz Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 10:29 pm

How many Prius sized (mid-sized sedan) and smaller vehicles do you think are purchased? How many Hummers?

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carcus1 Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:43 pm

I (the consummate skeptic) think it’s a little suspect that GM is hanging these big “after warranty” numbers out on their batteries right now.

If the insinuations are true (i.e. 5,000 cycles and X years plus) , well that’s great. But these numbers seem to be nearly twice what we have seen from other OEM’s or nearly any other technical data that I have read.

(Granted, nobody at GM has said anything specific about calender life.)

I would like to see them come out with some documentation explaining exactly what their 30,000 sq ft battery lab is predicting on battery life (in cycles and calender life) on the volt. Their predictions should include easy to read charts including their test data.

This is a very big part of how viable the volt is.

I want to see where my tax dollars are going.

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-6 Helmut Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:54 pm

Ipods are cheap, and they get cheaper every year. Most people can shell out $150 for a gadget, most people cannot shell out $40,000 for a car that competes for buyers of civics, corollas, prius’ etc.

Why won’t the government just give us a $25,000 tax credit, or a $50,000 credit? Then we could take out a loan for $40,000, pay it off at the end of the year and still get $10,000 back, which we could then spend the $10,000 on solar panels and other bullshit that can’t compete in a free market economy.

I think I calculated awhile ago that for the Volt to make any semblance of financial sense, gas needs to cost about $12.50/gallon and electricity needs to be free.

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-4 Helmut Says:
October 16th, 2009 at 11:59 pm

Totally, GM can’t fail so they should build whatever they feel like. If it doesn’t sell, we’ll borrow more money from China and try again. Market studies, pish posh. Vehicles that have demand, screw that too. Pricing your electric car competitively against Toyota, why bother? Everyone will want one once they realize they can save $1,200 per year on fuel, as long as they don’t leave town.

The only reasons to buy this car are the reasons Rashiid mentioned at the top. You want to stick it to “big oil”, and you’re willing to bend over and let GM have their way with you and a slew of unwilling taxpayers to do it.

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-6 Helmut Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 12:05 am

So the Volt is going to compete with Suburban and Tahoe? Does anyone here have any perspective?

The Volt will sell in small quantities to green snobs, elitists, and people who believe that all our oil comes from Iraq. The majority of our oil actually comes from Canada and Mexico. Saudi is #2 or #3 on the list depending on the year, battling it out with Mexico.

Oh, also stupid people who can qualify for financing will line up to buy this thing as they think it will pay for itself in fuel saving, especially if they drive the piss out of it.

However, I don’t see the Volt cutting into pickup sales. Maybe if I smoke some of what you’re having I will see the light.

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-2 Helmut Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 12:11 am

Someone who isn’t drinking the GM kool-aid? I’m surprised, I can’t believe there is anyone on here who isn’t high on green Volt 230mpg goodness and sunshine.

You’re entirely correct in my opinion. The cost of a car that can potentially save you money on gas commands a premium directly related to what the savings are. The prius isn’t bad if you drive enough, but even it is difficult to justify over similar cars. The volt is a little less than 2x the cost of the prius and damn near impossible to ever break even on, making it a purchase based on emotion, not reason.

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Herm Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 2:06 am

I have no idea how they measure calendar life degradation (temperature dependent I think), but number of cycles life can be predicted.. every cycle on a battery lowers its capacity a tiny bit, with very sensitive measuring equipment they can predict the lifetime number of cycles with just a few runs. The SOC mostly determines this.

A123 also predicts a large number of cycles and a long calendar life for their batteries.

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Sean Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 3:39 am

The three things I think that makes an electric car worth the dream of getting off fossil fuels are.

They make no noise but still they need some kind of artificial vroom sound so people know where the car or truck is so no body gets hurt or killed.

There will be less of an issue when it comes to smog emissions and
probably no more bad fume smells that are bad for your health and by reducing global warming.

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Herm Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 7:41 am

You may be right, but in all those cars you mentioned there is no benefit in idling the engine, wasting gas while spewing pollution.. but in the Volt the genset idling recharges the battery. There really is no point to start-stop in a Volt.

Hopefully CARB wont require GM to electrically pre-heat the catalytic.

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+1 Herm Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 7:55 am

I really think a lot of people that buy cars could care less about looks or even the color, add to that how pretty all Toyotas are and you can see why they sell so many cars.

I grew up seeing green AMC Pacers on the road, even then the looks did not bother me.. its a car not a girl.

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Dan Petit Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 8:38 am

Neil,

I disagree entirely. The times of the horse and buggy did not have the lightning information speed of the internet. No way.

Demand is terribly terribly terribly underestimated!!

VERY wrong and outdated historical references are counter-productive for those in governmental positions (especially if some of them want to quaintly view that the horse and buggy “were the good times” and, they emotionally want to “go back”, full well knowing that to be impossible), and, impede EREV multiple fast-tracking and production ramp-ups by being passive-aggressive, or just indifferent and lazy, or continually misinformed by the wrong opines, very sad to say.

When I see how various people in independent auto repair shops *perceive* what I am explaining, it is very clear that (for this technical field) these persons are either right brain dominant (set process prone ~20%/heavy line work), or, they are left brain dominant (new process and new approach prone ~80% tech-based work/70% of effective shop income). The curriculum is then set accordingly, based on what type of “live repairs and/or customer waiting” repair orders are present. (GM vehicles must be where all begin to be taught, no exceptions.)

Outside of this particular (and most other) technical fields, generally speaking, a third of the populace is “set process prone”, and, two thirds of the populace is “new process prone, new approach prone”.

The latter are the ones who accelerate toward the new ways of doing things and toward the new products. They want to learn all that they can, as perfectly as they can. The internet has accelerated the efficiencies of these understandings lightning-fast, and, IMO, NONE TOO SOON, (due to CO2 currently at 400ppm).

“Set process prone” thinking is overrepresented by both media, and certainly, as well as those who think that way (inherited, it seems to me). ALL techs are THE VERY MOST terrific and patient people to work in these weather conditions out in these bays. I’m continually honored to work with every single one of them.)

But we had better get that 400ppm CO2 back down to 360ppm CO2 ASAP. That’s only 10 percent an doable.

Pardon me for saying so, but we had better not tolerate any political or other bs in driving our way in doing it EXPEDITIOUSLY.

How simple is a 10% global reduction however we can do it the easiest and the fastest? Electric motoring is one.

We had better be even more aggressive however we can, and, FAST.

I saw a law enforcement vehicle yesterday which had in very large letters: “ENVIRONMENTAL LAW ENFORCEMENT” all over it.

If other OEM’s are not going to do EREV like GM, they ought to be mandated to do so, AND, in the largest of production numbers.

Demand “is” there, and, to be VERY suddenly known to be terribly miscalculated once the public sees the Volt increasingly in front of them in just a very few more SHORT MONTHS!!

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Jason M. Hendler Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 8:51 am

I agree. Hopefully, when GM replaced their VP of sales, they replaced him with someone who will get the preorder program in place.

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koz Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 9:52 am

I won’t argue that plenty of buyers don’t place looks at the top of their priority list (me included), but it is on the list somewhere. There are also a lot of buyers that put it at or near the top. For many, only price prevents them from getting the car they “really” want. Hopefully the tech in the Volt and everything it brings will attract enough buyers to overcome the price and any other drawbacks.

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+1 Luke Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 11:19 pm

You’re forgetting that oil is a liquid market.

If we only buy from people we like, then the people we don’t like will sell to everyone else — the only people who pay higher prices are us,and nothing else really changes.

I concede that this model is a little simplistic, but changes like the one you suggest will only have a very limited impact.

Replace 30% of the oil use with conservation, and now we’re talking actual change. But conservation is hard expensive work that can’t just be done with a stroke of a congressional pen.

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Luke Says:
October 17th, 2009 at 11:30 pm

Because the drilling projects that politicians mention not enough oil to make much of a difference.

I don’t think people realize exactly how much oil we burn every day. We’re talking tens billions of barrels per year — a few hundred million barrels here and there are just drops in the bucket.

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teds Says:
October 23rd, 2009 at 7:06 pm

I dont care how cheap oil gets we have to stop sending our money to the middle-east!

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Mac Says:
October 27th, 2009 at 11:04 pm

I want the Volt to succeed so we can stop sending $$$ to OPEC and create employment for Americans – as a non-American living in Florida, I honestly think the world will love this IF it does what it says it will do, or lives up to the hype.

I will buy one, somebody has to be the guinea pig.

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