AND 
Plug-in Prius Will Have up to 12.4 Mile All Electric Range
Toyota has taken the wraps off its plug-in Prius prototype and will be displaying it at the Frankfurt Auto Show. They have also disclosed a bit more engineering detail.
The car will go into limited test-fleet production in the first half of 2010. 500 units will be deployed globally, with 150 in Europe, 150 in the US, and 200 in Japan. If successful, Toyota could bring a production model to mass market in 2012.
The car is based on the third generation Prius except is has a larger high output rechargeable lithium-ion battery pack. Toyota has not revealed the size of the pack but indicates the electric motor will be allowed to operate up to 62 mph, and under low-load situations the car can be driven purely electrically for up to 12.4 miles.
The gas engine can operate at any time loads are high and will come into play for long drives once the battery is depleted.
Toyota claims this PHEV will emit 60 grams CO2 per km. The battery can be recharged in 3 hours at 100V, and 1.5 hours at 200V.
Clearly Toyota’s advantage with this design is low cost, as the pack will likely have less then 4 kwh usable energy and be mated to matured third generation technology and design that already has undergone iterative cost reductions. Further cost advantage comes from the fact that Toyota is in a battery production partnership with Panasonic. Though pricing has not been announced, considering the base Prius is $22,000, getting this vehicle to market for under $30,000 before rebates seems possible.
Plug. Sale?
Source (Toyota)
206 Responses to “Plug-in Prius Will Have up to 12.4 Mile All Electric Range”
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September 10th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
If it comes in under $30k before rebates I’ll be taking a SERIOUS test drive.
/but that paint job’s gotta go — nothing says “geek” quite like a blue starburst electrical plug splattered all over your car.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Does it qualify for the $7500 rebate? I thought that required a certain size battery?
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
SInce it is 100% imported it should not qualify for any taxpayer funded rebate at all. Let the Japanese Govt foot the bill for any rebates connected to this car.since they and toyota ,will share the profits.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
The 4KWh battery will get $2500 in tax credits.
http://gm-volt.com/2008/10/03/along-with-wall-street-bailout-plug-in-car-tax-credit-is-passed-chevy-volt-now-7500-less/
Maybe Toyota sized it for the minimum to qualify for the credit?
Anyone wish to quote Toyota execs on the perils of LiOn batteries?
While I’m posting near the top, please note Lyle’s marathon sponsorship ad near the top right of this page.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Welcome to the party Toyota. Bout damn time too. See you in 2012.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
How about a compromise?
Toyota agrees to produce the prius in Mississippi (as originally planned) and they get to participate in the rebates.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Can this car be stiff competition for the Volt? I wish I knew. You would think so with the price tag being so much lower. We will see.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Here’s how the product progression might go:
2012 — v 1.0 72 mpg (on 40 mile cycles) and 12 mi AER
2013 — v 1.2 78 mpg and 12 mi AER — software updated
2014 — v 1.5 85 mpg and 14 mi AER — extra .5kwh
2015 — v 1.8 90 mpg and 14 mi AER — sofware updated
etc.
etc…
/interim updates are offered for free if you sign up for the extra($) warranty/service checks , costs $168.95 ea if you haven’t
– other options could include enhanced “sport” mode for better acceleration (but less mpg)
– another software option could be: now with gps interface and special “learn my driving habits” smartware which could increase mpg by 15% to 20%
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
The first plug-in Prius was a university project which added a second NiMh pack to get a short distance’s worth of much better gas mileage. Toyota’s response was that this was not practical, and that any such mod would void the vehicle’s warranty. I recall posting somewhere that “I wish Toyota would take this idea seriously.” I don’t recall if HyMotion had hit the picture fully.
In large part due to the behind-the-scenes agitation of one Dr. Lyle Dennis, we have the Volt concept which very likely led directly to Toyota’s reversal on, first, the plug-in; and second, the Lithium Ion batteries the Volt concept depends on.
This is worth remembering even if it turns out that we’ve suddenly found ourselves standing on the edge of a precipice:
After someone posted a link to the new Prius late in the last thread, someone else posted about the sale of Opel to Magna:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090910/bs_nm/us_gm_opel
… and another link appeared to a story about GM’s involuntary dismissal of over 1000 white collar workers:
http://www.automotive-business-review.com/news/gm_to_layoff_1000_whitecollar_jobs_in_september_090909
Buried near the end of this last story, is the ominous paragraph:
“By the end of 2011, the company plans to shutdown 14 of its US plants and three warehouses and also the sale/elimination of its four domestic brands.”
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Seems like a good compromize between the current Prius and the Volt model. Toyota claims in its press release that 80% of Europeans’ daily commutes fall within the 12 mile range. It makes me wonder what percentage of North Americans fall within that range?
One significant advantage that the Prius has going for it is that it has already amortized all the initial R&D costs with previous versions of the Prius. Therefore the $1 or $2 billion that it cost to develop the system (prior to the public sales of any Prii) is already accounted for. GM is going to have a lot of work to do to amortize the same amount of R&D investment, especially at the small production numbers they’ve announced. That’s one obstacle in their way that Toyota doesn’t have.
Nevertheless, the Volt is a very different car from the PI Prius. All this model really represents is a classic Prius with a bigger battery. It will be very interesting to see how successful Toyota is with this “EREV-Lite” concept.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Since I am from Mississippi, I would agree with that because of the jobs it would bring although I don’t really like subsidies to foreign companies from taxpayer taxes.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
as always, it all depends on price. 30k is way too much.
Plug-in premium for Prius should be no more than 2k for me to consider it.
and I do not like idea of GOV rebates in general – it is a hidden tax, unless
money explicitly coming from another source, which I doubt.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
I seem to remember Toyota saying one time that a plug-n Prius would cost around $45,000. Does any one else remember that? Of course, that was during the time they were beating GM up for coming out with a proposed vehicle using a lithium-ion battery. I believe they will try to price the plug-in for about $5,000 over regular Prius prices. That would net the customer only a $2,500 dollar increase after tax rebate. IMO.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
That looks like a reasonable start for electric miles. Especially for drivers who have very low daily mileage needs if they want all electric miles.
What would be its mpg rating using the formulation for an average American commute at 40 miles daily for 78% of the American drivers? About a gallon every three days or so at 40 miles a day plugged in every night possibly, something like the equivalent (if at 40 miles daily) at ICE 50mpg, around 75 to 85?
It would likely vary really greatly depending on ICE run time a lot more than Volt.
What does the average driver in Japan as well as Europe drive every day? Are those figures available anywhere? That would be interesting and would help to make sense of what electric-only range would efficiently work in those regions.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Carcus1,
What are you basing that on? I don’t disagree with you because it looks so plausible.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Before I forget it, let me say again — Job well done, Lyle. Great article and it will evoke some really good comments.
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September 10th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
It won’t get Volt type mileage, but 12 miles should be nice enough for those of us who usually drive less than 40 miles a day. I can definitely see people failing to plug it in and then bitchin, but that will be their fault. Price will be king here.
Uber geek that I am, I took my tax records on my mileage and figured out how many gallons of gas I would use in a year if my Volt has a 35 mile AER, since I am kind of partial to AC and acceleration. I would have used 35 gallons of gas and 2200 kWh. With gas at $3 a gallon, both my fuels would cost me less than $350 for the entire year, instead of the $1800 in gas my RAV4 used. When gas goes up to $4 a gallon or more, the Volt looks sweet indeed! The plug in Prius will give pretty darned good mileage, I would bet a lot of people will be getting 70 mpg+ for the year, and with the small battery their electricity costs will be less than $100 a year. So it all depends on how much of a premium the Prius Plug In will have.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
“By the end of 2011, the company plans to shutdown 14 of its US plants and three warehouses and also the sale/elimination of its four domestic brands.”
———————————————–
Edge of a precipice? Sounds like they are planning to start producing everything in China. By that time China will own most of our financial and government institutions (including GM) unless we can repay multi-trillions in loans. Which I don’t see happening. Interest payments alone are almost $500 billion annually and we add over $100 billion to our national debt every 5 weeks. I am just repeating some figures I have heard on financial analyst say.
Edited: Maybe the 4 domestic brands are Pontiac, Saturn, Hummer and what? Plant consolidation could account for the plant and warehouse closing. I can’t imagine GM is talking about shutting down everything.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
If so, it means that any comparisons based on country of origin have just become meaningless.
I feel ill.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
It’s just BS I made up.
But,….
If I were Mr. Akio Toyoda, I think that’s the kind of planning I’d want to hear in the board meetings or steam baths or wherever they group up.
As electric cars become more prominent, the OEM’s are going to take a hit in their maintenance “cash cow”. The way to make it up is through updates (just like the computer companies do it).
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Volt is still a superior product. If GM can get the price down, the volt may end up being the best selling vehicle of the next decade.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Rocky,
One reason I think Toyota is waiting until 2012 to bring out the plug-in Prius is to allow them time to gauge the acceptance of the Volt and Karma. If they fall flat because of lack of interest, Toyota will push back the release date another year or so. if sales are very brisk and production is increased to match demand, Toyota will move up the release into late 2011 or early 2012. They are hedging their bet at this time. That’s all.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Toyota will argue that with you getting a $2,500 rebate their premium price of $5,000 over a standard Prius so you will only see an increase of $2,500. That way they get to rake in the full $5,000 and you (as a sucker taxpayer) get to “save” $2,500. Got it? I have no inside track on the additional cost of the plug-in over the standard Prius. I just believe it will be around $5,000. Could be more. Could be less. What do you think given Toyota’s pricing strategy over the past years?
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
I forgot to mention that with my driving around 12,600 miles, even using a 35 mile AER, I would have gotten right around 360 mpg.
Forget 230 mpg, 360 mpg is what a real driver would have gotten, if the Volt delivers just 88% of the AER that they are promising.
I hope to have to explain to my grandkids what OPEC used to be.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Great Job as always Lyle
Interesting that Toyota is reversing their long-time mantra about plug-ins being cost ineffective. And at the same time, reversed the line about li-ion batteries. I read that they are also reversing their stand on two-seater sports cars.
A Toyota two-seat electric… hmmm…
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Good point. Isn’t it refreshing to see a Japanese carmaker making an afterthought, me-too product in response to an American carmaker’s original concept?
If your speculation is correct that they will push this in a big way after the Volt’s initial success, it’s all the more reason for GM to price the Volt in a reasonable range. They could sell 10,000 Volts at $40K+, but then when it comes time to sell 60K cars/year in 2012, they might suddenly find themselves competing against a flood of $25K Prius EREV-Lite’s.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
That’s quite a stretch.
The market was dramatically different way back then.
Remember how much the battery-pack cost was?
For that matter, look at how much the hybrid design itself has changed. The electric-motor size has nearly doubled (33 to 60 kW) and the operating voltage did (273.6 to 650 volts).
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
If it comes in under $30k before rebates I’ll be taking a SERIOUS test drive.
Much like the Prius itself, this variant makes a lot of sense for people who don’t drive much. But for those who drive more, seems like the rebates render it less than competitive. If the Volt is $32,5K after rebates what would a plug-in Prius, which will only be eligible for a $2500 rebate, have to be priced at to be competitive?
Even with a plug by 2012 the Prius will no longer hold the mantle of the most “green” car available. Also the tech crowd will probably want an EV — more interesting tech.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
That is one Gay looking car.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Well 12,4 miles are probably more realistic for first-generation PHEV’s. For average consumers, 40 000$ are maybe too much. But what prevents GM from additionarlly producing a Volt lite with a simliar AER?
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Once you get to 50 MPG you’re not going to save much gasoline because you’re just not using that much, so doing a plug-in has more to do with burnishing greed creed than it does with saving gas.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
OPEC? What’s that Grandpa?
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
I agree.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
By the end of 2011, the company plans to shutdown 14 of its US plants and three warehouses and also the sale/elimination of its four domestic brands.
This really isn’t anything to be alarmed about. For example, like most other auto manufacturers, Toyota is doing the same thing. There is simply too much global manufacturing capacity. It’s the price you pay for getting very good at what you do. Job growth is invariably in inefficient industries since, by definition, becoming more efficient means producing the same number of widgets with fewer and fewer people and resources.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Dr. Dennis:
“Plug. Sale?”
Toyota. No!
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
With Toyota, anything is possible. It will also be a “different” world in 2012 than today. Things are happening this year and late last year that I would have thought impossible just a few years ago. So, we will see what Uncle Toyoda does.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
They’ve been researching for at least 2 years.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
I’m guessing with a battery that small, and almost all of the plug-in Prius tech being similar or the same as a non plug-in Prius, plus the fact that they will be produced in much higher quantities than Volts, they will be in Gen 4 Prius territory by 2012, and they already enjoy a $3,000 margin on their 3rd gen Prius, I would guess these will start at $27,500 or so,and then take off $2,500 for rebates. If that’s the case, the Volt will be $7,500 more than a Prius for very similar fuel savings in all reality, you might be burning 50 gallons of gas a year or so in a plug-in Prius more than a Volt, but as far as total cost of ownership, there is no comparison. Remember, the Prius battery will also be a much smaller liability as it will cost half of what a Volt’s battery costs = lower maintenance costs, and lower warranty costs for Toyota. I can imagine a lot people willing to try a plug-in with a $5,000 battery, but a lot less willing to be a first adopter of a $10-12,000 battery powered vehicle.
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September 10th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
I’ll typically make between 1 to 3 short trips during the day (6 to 15 mi. ea.. working from home so opportunity charge is almost always) . Once or twice a month I go out of town for 400 to 500 mi ea. It seems likely that my annual fuel burn in the prius will be hardly any more than the volt.
I’m still predicting that there’s no way the volt will get 50 mpg at 70 mph on the interstate. I expect the prius will.
Even if the volt did make it’s numbers, there’s the much larger battery to contend with. Year 5 or 7, or 10 is gonna mean a replacement.. that’s gonna be a much bigger maintenance hit (or resale hit) in the volt. Big warranty or no, somewhere that $’s gotta come out in the wash.
Prius reliability is established, .. the Volt ? . . . nobody knows.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
You would look good in this car.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
If we assume a mileage of 3.5 miles per kWh, then the SOC window will be about 3.6 kWh, and if we assume 70% utilization, then the battery size will be about 5.2 kWh, earning a credit of about $3000. So with a MSRP of $22,000 plus $3000 for the additional battery, we get the Plug-in Prius for $22,000. It will sell like hot cakes.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Notice how Dagwood is absent from this article and the prior article? Maybe some cranks really do know when to hang it up.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
(click to show comment)
September 10th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
True. …and especially true at today’s gas prices (my last fill was $1.99/g); however,…
I think once we move into the really high mpg numbers , say 80 to 100 mpg, then we’re starting to get into ethanol sustainability.
In a way it IS just “green cred.” (I think that’s what you meant), but to me it is of importance, and I’ll pay extra for it.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
Notice that the PHEV Prius “should be able to reach 62 mph in electric mode”
The limit is the power provided from the batteries. A larger sized battery is able to better provide power without additional strains. This Prius PHEV will be constrained for USA driving similar to how a Hymotion Prius currently is… fine in the city, but not able to meet even average 40 mph+ acceleration/HWY driving without turning on the gas.
Since the Volt has to be 100% from the battery in all situations, a much larger battery size allows them to provide a longer lasting battery.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
Not being “most green” is a good thing.
Middle-Market consumers don’t buy the newest technology. They wait for it to mature.
Seeing it as well established is essential for high-volume sales.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Plug-In Prius: 12 miles maximum AER under ideal slow speed conditions
Volt: 40 miles average AER under typical conditions
The Volt is far superior. GM just needs to get it in the showrooms (and in my driveway).
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Are you committing to sell us brand new Plug-In Prii for $17,000? I *will* thank you for that!
Or are you exaggerating, based on the assumption that you can fool anyone here?
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Pure speculation: we are talking about two non-existent products and you claim one is superior to another.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
What, indeed?
It’s easier to say that their “four domestic brands” are Buick, GMC, Chevrolet and Cadillac, since there are four of them which haven’t already been shuttered or sold.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
“But what prevents GM from additionarlly producing a Volt lite with a simliar AER?”
Greed?
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
The (12 miles electric) plug-in Toyota Prius will sell better than the (100 miles) fully electric Nissan Leaf. The-out-the door price of the Toyota being very alluring at about $30k.
What car to buy in 2010, maybe a used 2007 Prius?
2007 Prius shopper: “Is the power okay?”
2007 Prius owner: “I drive it hard and get 45 mpg.”
The 2007 Prius isn’t the answer. The 2010 plug-in Prius is closer to being the right car, but offers little performance, comfort, and hauling capacity @ $30k.
There will be as many ICE Cruze and Volt sold as the 2010 plug-in Prius. Hope (there’s that Obama word again) NGMCO plays their cards right on the Volt release price, the $7500 rebate being instant rather than delayed, and sufficient volume and color variety.
=D~
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Word of caution. I believe that 12.5 miles is based on Euro driving specs as the announcement relates to a German Auto Show. Which would be closer to 10 Miles (or less) US driving specs (if the same reductions hold true for electric usage versus gasoline)
From this I believe the total battery will be around 4 kWh with around 2kWh being usuage.
All in all, it looks to be nothing more than a production version of the Hymotion Prius, which will operate more in blend mode for “typical driving”. Only people with a tendency to Hypermile will acchieve the EV only mode.
I think SAE J1711 will return figures like City 75 MPG + 7kWh/100 miles in comparison to Volts 230 MPG + 25 kWh/100 miles.
Interesting side note, if these figures are correct, at $0.08 per kWh, the Volt is cheaper once gas is more than $1.52 per gallon. At $0.25 per kWh, the Prius is cheaper until gas is $4.92 per gallon.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Excuse me for density, then; but if there are four domestic GM brands in NA, and they’re sold or eliminated in 2011, and the Volt is announced late in 2010 as a 2011 model, how, exactly, are they going to be sold?
Will they really only be available on eBay? Will they be sold to Penske and re-sold as Saturns (perhaps sharing the showroom floor with BYDs), or perhaps through FIsker as the Karma’s little brother?
Yes, the implications are almost too broad to take in. Given the way the paragraph is written, it’s hard to take any other way. Our best hope is that this one source has made an error, or that it will end up being completely explained away by some huge piece of now-missing information.
At the very least, I think we need some clarification of this from the top.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
I think the four brands they are shutting are Hummer, Saturn, Pontiac and ??? Saab might be the fourth. (Nor sure about SAAB). Point is that I think we have a typo in the article. Should read “four of its domestic brands”
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
I wish it was a serial-electric instead of a parallel. Toyota would be better poised for a future pure BEV, and also have a lot more real world data/testing under their belt. It would also help push the auto world momentum more towards that design, which will (eventually) remove the ICE alltogether.
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Yes the volt is far superior, and far more expensive. In other words you can’t compare a $30,000 and a $40,000 car (one will be superior).
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September 10th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Oh, hi john. How are thangs?
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
I may be in the minority here, but, even though I’d strongly consider a Volt, I wouldn’t be caught dead in a Prius. I guess the car has developed too much of a reputation as a haughty, liberal smug-mobile for me to be interested. That’s not to say the Volt might not get a similar reputation over time, but it has an altogether different appeal to me than the Prius. Maybe because it seems like it actually might be somewhat fun-to-drive?
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
“Isn’t it refreshing to see a Japanese carmaker making an afterthought, me-too product in response to an American carmaker’s original concept?”
Their pace and scope has certainly been accelarated by the Volt, but plug-in Prii have been under study both here and in Japan for longer than the Volt project has been in existence.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
The financial times (ft.com) has an informative article today 9/10
“Doubts on use of bailout cash for car-makers”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c625f27a-9d97-11de-9f4a-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=a491f060-b57f-11dd-ab71-0000779fd18c.html
on the prospects of recovering from the automakers the bailout money. The source of the article is a congressional panel. It deals with issues such as the legal authority for the bailouts, uncertainty about the relation of the government to gm management, and Ray Young stepping down from his gm position.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
All Toyota did was dip their toe in the water. GM jumped in.
12 Miles range almost won’t be worth pluggin in each night for most people.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
It might be slightly fun to drive by a gas station selling $3.00 gas, and fill up at home on the equivalent of 75 cent gas.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Randy
I agree with you. Helping other countrys put our companys out of business is wrong.
I say at the end of the year give the Prius buyers their part of the gross amount of rebate the Japaneese government gave to buyers of our cars. Simple as that.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
Isn’t the Volt battery warrantied to 150,000 miles & 10 years? Even with out a warranty and even if the battery loses 70% of capacity, it would still have more capacity than any new PHEV Prius’ sitting in the dealers showrooms. Why would any one choose to take the hit of replacing the battery at 5, 7 or 10 years with that kind of capacity left?
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
.. based on (admittedly somewhat general) design concepts, it is possible to call one or the other inherently superior. What is unknown at this point is execution and detailed performance data. Rarely, a superior design has fallen to one which should theoretically be inferior (Beta vs VHS); that usually comes down to factors like economics (VHS cheaper per hour, but at lower quality = win).
Economics are definitely a factor in this equation. Toyota and GM alike will just have to wait and see. Unlike the video cassette format wars, there is no either/or battle; there could well be plenty of room for both approaches.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
Neil,
I had no idea that Toyota could buy your favor so easily
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
I think it will be more fun to drive. I am looking forward to that. I just wish it had the looks that would turn heads. That would have been the whole package.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
That’s not where their engineering experience and economies of scale lie. They’ll gradually improve what they have, like Asians prefer to do, and market the hell out of it. GM has taken the extremely risky, but potentially more rewarding route of revolution (Hey, it’s worked a couple of times since the 17th century …
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:37 pm
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
Looks like they are talking about planned cuts from 11/2008 to 11/2011. Including Saturn, Saab, Hummer and Pontiac.
Don’t forget they already closed Oldsmobile in ‘04 and Geo in ‘98.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
“I’ll typically make between 1 to 3 short trips during the day (6 to 15 mi. ea.. working from home so opportunity charge is almost always) …. It seems likely that my annual fuel burn in the prius will be hardly any more than the volt.”
Keep in mind that the all 12 mile electric range would be only when you feather the throttle when accelerating. The Volt will allow about 40 miles of relatively spirited driving without using gas.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
I think the Volt will be much more fun to drive. That is part of the revolution; fun that’s socially responsible.
Prii, like BMWs, have owner-induced-image baggage to contend with. FWIW, I think the 2010 Prius reflects at least some attempt by Toyota to broaden this stereotypical image into something more mainstream.
As for BMWs, they don’t have a prayer of divorcing their stereotypical, pushy-driving, middle-manager demographic; but then again, neither the demographic or the company have any desires to.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
“Isn’t the Volt battery warrantied to 150,000 miles & 10 years?”
– We’ve heard that. But I won’t put any credence in it until the Volt’s actually up for sale. Either way, the warranty is something that any manufacturer can offer, it should all come out in a competitive wash, so I don’t think about it too much . . especially this far out.
” . . . if the battery loses 70% of capacity,….”
– If the Volt can actuallly get 50 mpg, then you might go ahead and run the battery to the bitter end. I don’t think it will, 30 to 35 mpg is sounding pretty optimistic to me. So in the volt you’re annual averaged mpg will take bigger and bigger hits as the battery goes south of where it could support the original spec’d AER. . It’s also possible that the resale (trade in value) of your battery could drop off dramatically if you took it down too low. The cells will probably go on to live a second life (with the utility companies or whatever) if you stopped at say 70% remaining. Take them all the way down, and then they’re just trash.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
WTF ?
Gas is selling for $2.19 here, what podunk area are you tanking in ?
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
And GM built their first hybrid in 1969. There’s a huge difference between studying something and actually doing it .
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
… how strange that this is the first mention of it, here. I heard something on the radio earlier this week. statik wouldn’t have let this slip by.
‘ol George still takin’ it on the chin, I see.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
… which makes Toyota look foolish — unless there are sharks.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
I’m so glad that you and your husband were able to make up.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
The VHS vs Beta comparison could become accurate. Price will still remain the biggest factor. How much is 20-30 miles AER more worth? Also, it takes more time to charge a larger battery to full.
Example:
- 10 miles to your favorite resturant with a charging station.
- 30 to 60 minutes to get table
- 60 minutes to get served and eat
- Now, 10 miles of AER in the battery
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Which is why both GM (with Volt) and Toyota (with it’s new plug-in) are wise to start off small.
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September 10th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
“30 to 35 mpg is sounding pretty optimistic to me”
Your opinion is a minority one, on this site (for the benefit of our non-commenting readers). There is as much evidence at this point to support a much higher number. Non-disclosure of mpg in charge-sustain mode is disquieting, but possible to explain by other means.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Hope you guys are right, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the possibility that it is still possible for GM news to get very, very bad.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
Ooo. Gotta link?
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
Remove the ICE from a series hybrid and you have a short-range Battery Electric Car (BEV).
If you remove the ICE from a paralell hybrid, you have a either a car with 0 – 60 times in the triple digits, or a very large paperweight.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
It’s not an after thought, Toyota has been driving around plug in Prius’ for years. They didn’t think it would be a prudent to invest in PHEV’s for mass production or profitable to sell at scale. Toyota already felt certain they would have the most profitable hybrid drive train sold with the synergy system. Why change the industries most profitable hybrid innovations?
That is the bet GM took with the Volt; to leapfrog hybrid synergy drive, a bet which has forced the industry to have competitive models on standby for 2011, on the chance that GM gets a surprise hit that begins to strip away market share, leaving the other OEM’s without a viable answer.
The Volt is carrying the rest of the industry with it because the other OEMs can’t take the risk of having any other makers take market share with it’s electric drive innovations. Then GM or others could refine their EREV or BEV designs with mass production moving toward profitably.
If Voltec proves to be a hit, and it was years before a competitor could develop a PHEV platform, it would be a disaster for that OEM.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Will these prices be in effect in 2012? Somehow, I doubt it.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
By the same token, if the Volt or GM fail, the rubber-band of industry following will be released and will quickly snap back to the pre-Volt status quo. This is another cause of the decidedly tentative rollouts we’re seeing from other makers.
I’m sure they would all prefer that the Volt and GM fail. “Forced” is the correct word to use for the BEVy of plug-in projects (sorry, couldn’t resist)
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
With all that opportunity charging just about anything would work for you a lot of the time. But yes, if you’re only going ten miles at a shot, and have time for recharging, then the smaller the battery the more cost effective solution you have.
On the battery warranty, the Volt and the Prius Plug-In will both have the same 10/150K warranty, just like the Prius does now. It’s really a legal requirement.
On the MPG is charge sustaining mode, your 30-35 MPG numbers seem overly pessimistic but we’re all guessing. I’m still thinking that we’ll get the computer model number minus the optimistic bias that models always seem to produce — IOW something in the low to mid 40s. But we’ll find this out in due time. We have to have some remaining mysteries, don’t we?
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:23 pm
Jeffhre,
Good post, with insight that I have occasionally mused over.
Even if Lutz’s Volt falls flat on its ass, it almost certainly helped to “up everybody else’s game” in the electrification of the automobile.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
The fate of Beta was sealed when software (read pre-recorded Video tapes of movies and shows) centered on the more numerous VHS machines. Once they ceased to be simply time-shifting gizmos for your TV, the dynamic changed. It’s hard for me to see what the analogue for multiple hybrid types might be. They will all work on the same roads, given highway speed capability.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
Not being “most green” is a good thing.
It’s not a good thing when being the “most green” is the primary selling point for the car. Just as will be the case with the Volt, you can’t cost justify the price premium based on gas savings, so most people who have bought a Prius have bought it for the purpose of displaying their green creed.
The Volt will be “greener”, have more interesting tech, and will have better performance. It will cost more but most people buying a Prius aren’t stretching their budgets.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
I’m in the “green creed” camp. No offense intended.
I use “creed” because to me the vehicle is a statement of beliefs, but “cred” would work as well. There are so many great reasons to use less petroleum it’s hard to know which one to put at the top of the list.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
I think this was all part of the bankruptcy plan. When you have to resize your company because the market is now 10M SARS when it used to be 17M SARS, you need serious reductions in both plants and workers. No two ways about this, as unpleasant as it is.
This is also why GM and Chrysler cut dealers. You can’t support the same corporate structure and dealer network when you’re selling far fewer cars.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
I’ve seen the warranty issue come up a few times, but haven’t researched it. I thought it depended on what state you live in.
“The Mariner Hybrid’s 330-volt nickel-metalhydride batteries are warranted for eight years or 100,000-miles in most states and 10 years or 150,000 miles in states that follow California standards (see dealer for limited warranty details).”
http://www.mercuryvehicles.com/extras/reviews.asp?review=marinerhybrid&year=2009
This “coal miner” says it’s 8/100,000 in most states (at least on regular (non plug) hybrid batteries).
http://www.greenhybrid.com/discuss/f65/ev-battery-cvt-warranty-8-100-000-10-150-000-a-21220/
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
You’re probably right about the range. You’re also probably right about the car being a production version Hymotion. And yes, those numbers aren’t going to look very good.
On the plus side it’s a relatively cheap introduction.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
On the Volt’s CS mpg:
If they get into the 40’s City/hwy combined (2008 epa standards) it’ll be fine.
If it’s in the 30’s it’ll cause some angst, but still ok.
If it’s down in the 20’s: major problem.
/also, something less than 30 then I think GM will do everything possible to avoid having that number brought up or discussed.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
I like the way you are figuring out what your mpg is going to be. I think Toyota is being very smart here using the proven platform of the Prius gen 3. The latest Prius uses a 60 kW motor which is almost twice as big as the motor in the first Prius and they also probably upped the controller capacity so it can run the Prius faster for longer. It will probably be able to work continuously at full load for the entire range of the battery pack.
Anyway, It should be noted that Toyota did not try to outperform the Volt on the raw EV specifications. They want to outperform the Volt on price, volume and most importantly for their shareholders, profit.
It’s very possible that they will breakeven on their first gen plug-in. If so, they will be able to crank up the volume and not worry about losing too much. Then again, those lithium-ion batteries are crazy expensive.
The more EVs, PHEVs and E-REVs that are out there and the more choices consumers have the more this market is going to grow. I think the Volt and the Prius will be top quality entries for Car 2.0. We want drivers to be delighted and proud running all over the place praising this technology.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
More economics than greed.
The cost of the drive train and components will be high, so, when compared to the Prius, it wouldn’t be a very appealing alternative since the Prius would have a big cost advantage. The Volt would cost more and you wouldn’t be looking at a 230 MPG number versus a 50 MPG number. Plus GM would be leaving all those government dollars on the table.
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September 10th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
You nailed this one on all counts.
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
I am also in the 35 mpg-ish, high-speed charge sustaining highway camp. Again, no problem.
I disagree with the poster that the battery performance drop-off will effect the driver that much. GM is specifically taking that predictable drop-off into account and that is why they are using only 8 kWh out of the 16 kWh capacity in the beginning of life.
I also feel that in 8 – 10 years the replacement battery pack for the Volt will be about 1/4 the cost or less! Let’s get these babies out there and take one for the team. If the batteries don’t last that long at first (it’s a good possibility they won’t) they will get better every year. Someone has to take the initial charge to secure the EV beachhead. What are you? Chicken?
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
Had to squeeze in that 0.4….
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
Since the typical consumer with a longer commute will see the upgrade as an efficency BOOST, the measure of worth won’t be based on range anyway.
MPG will be significantly increased by plugging in.
It all boils down to the number that can be sold. How much of an automakers annual production will be capable of offering a plug?
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
Let me put it this way–given the details currently available, I definitely prefer the Volt concept to the plug-in Prius concept. I also really like the made-in-America concept.
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
Recently gm volt dot com has spent a lot of time focusing on Toyota, Fisker, Audi, and Nissan. The bottom line is this…
Does anyone from any of these car manufactures believe a new Volt will sit in a dealer lot for more than a few days? NGMCO needs to sticker the Volt at $38,995 with a $7500 instant rebate and just keep making them. Does it really matter what Toyota does with it’s Prius?
Anyone want a red, black, or white Volt in their garage?
=D~
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
This seems like a recycled story in some ways. Months ago the ATF testified that there was a “reasonable possibility” that the government would recover all the money. That’s another way of saying that there is a “reasonable possibility” that it won’t. On the other hand, there is a reasonable probability that it will recover most of the money and a virtual certainty it will recover some of the money.
Given that it preserves the US manufacturing base, that doesn’t seem so bad when you consider that we will have spent 10X as much on the Iraq war and we’re guaranteed of never getting any of that back.
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:22 pm
We just don’t know this. If the Prius is using 4 kWh of capacity and the Volt is using 8 kWh of capacity then it makes good sense that the Volt will have about twice the AER. Right? It’s not like the two cars are that much different in weight or aerodynamic ability.
Also, Toyota engineers know the Prius will do better on the highway in charge sustaining mode. We will soon know for sure when both models are out and can be tested. In fact, GM can go rent a Prius and run them together on the track. Did they do this already? I would bet yes. Are they happy with the result? I bet no. Go ahead and give me a negative, I’m just looking at the component efficiencies and multiplying out their effect. Nothing more. I also don’t think it matters (unless you do a lot of highway driving – if so get a VW diesel-like car). I just want potential Volt owners to be prepared.
Dear GM: Please go rent a 2010 Prius and a new clean-diesel car and drive them next to the Volt at a stead highway speed (actually several different highway speeds). Then plot the graph with the three lines using data points starting at a constant 55 mph to a constant 80 mph (run the same speed for each data point). I don’t expect you to publish this data because there’s still a year’s worth of Volt tweaking to do. It will, however, give you a good idea as to the marketing approach to take. If it outperforms both the cars then shout it from the treetops. If it does worse then explain to the consumer that it really doesn’t matter and that each driver should evaluate their personal routes to see how it performs. Most will be extremely happy.
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
On loss of battery capacity:
The way I work the math, after the total battery capacity is below 70% of original (i.e. .7 x 16 = 11.2 kwh remaining, 4.8 unusable), I think you’re starting to cut into the 8 kwh GM always counts on. I’m figuring there’s 15% at the bottom end and 5% at the top (3.2 kwh total) that you can’t ever utilize. (but I’ll readily admit that as battery capacity decreases my simple math may not work, maybe that 3.2 number shrinks as well (?)) — just a crude way of guestimating. . . 3.2 + 4.8 = 8. 8 kwh gone/unusable, 8 kwh usable
/Jeffhre was saying battery loses 70% capacity, as in only 30% capacity left. My example above deals with 70% capacity remaining.
On price:
I’d like to believe you’re right about price drops, but just can’t be that optimistic. How long have lead acid’s been around and what’s their price per kwh? I think $250 or $300 per kwh is as far as my optimism will reasonably go.
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
I’ll bet Dick Cheney would tell you, “Oil is holding steady at $70/barrel . . . . you’re getting your money back.”
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
I don’t care how ‘green’ that ‘blue’ monstrosity is… I don’t think even Ed Begley, Jr. would be caught dead driving that to an awards show.
But when the VOLT comes out, I’m sure all of Hollywood is going to want one. At least those who can’t afford the Karma.
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
The worse CS mode mpg is, the more AER they better consider offering.
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:46 pm
You know what really matters?
The size of the GM advertising budget in 2011-2012.
With all these different brands of EV’s and EREV’s ready to launch for the 2012 model year, it will be the best merchandising campaign that wins!
(bang my drum. bang my drum. bang my drum.)
I hope Lutz tucked away a few dollars of bailout money to spend on ‘Prime-Time” ads!
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Never mind, I found one:
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/05/27/blast-from-1969-gm-ad-for-stirling-engine-hybrid-the-stir-lec/
As I remember, the big bug-a-boo in the ’60s was pollution (and by that I mean “good old fashioned” pollution, not CO2), rather than economy or energy independence. That appears to be what was motivating this concept. Note that there is no mention of fuel amount/usage at all.
Not much room for your golf clubs, though …
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September 10th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Only Victory Red will do my friend….!
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September 10th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
Sure you don’t want a red prius instead? This one’s for sale:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/seaotter22/3062566989/
/and you’d never have to wash the bird shlt off it, it’d just look like it belonged there
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September 10th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
Nothing but BLUE will do. And I’m not talkin’ about no wimpy Robin’s Egg Blue, either.
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September 10th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
Since the Camaro is doing at or nearly 30 on the highway for many owners, I figure GM has made a few strides in the direction of fuel economy. Don’t know about you but for me, hard to imagine it with lower highway mileage than a Camaro.
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September 10th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
GM’s greatest battle will be against misconception, misunderstanding and misrepresentation. I really wonder if they can pull it off. The ad campaign may be harder than the engineering.
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September 10th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
If I actually had to lay some money down on a 5 mpg window I’d take 30 to 35 mpg (combined). The city might be a little higher, but I think the highway is going to suffer.
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September 10th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
Texas
“We just don’t know this. If the Prius is using 4 kWh of capacity and the Volt is using 8 kWh of capacity then it makes good sense that the Volt will have about twice the AER. Right?”
______________________
Don’t know. How does this change if we compare totals? 4 kWh to 16 kWh. Does it become 12.4 v 49.6 AER? There is a lot of this that depends on how the software conditions or coddles the batteries. If Steel is right and Toyota using Euro figures, then it’s down to 10 Prius v 40 Volt AER. Which leaves us back where we started!!
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September 10th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Here’s the way I see it:
Prius lovers loathe mild hybrids.
Volt lovers loathe mild plug-ins.
Toyota is only offering a mild plug-in Prius. A strong plug-in Prius would have at least 30 miles of all-electric range.
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September 10th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
omnimoeish
That puts the two in perspective.
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
Tail gate me baby
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Wow what a revelation how long did it take you come up with that…
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
I posted a reply, and it got lost. Maybe moderation? I’m sorry about that.
In case you’re still interested:
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/05/gm-hybrid-car-ad-1969-stirling-engine.php
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/09/priustoric-g/
I’ll take your word for the pollution thing. It was before I was born, so I can’t comment on what inspired the change. I just thought it was interesting when I read a retrospective on GM. (I spend way too much time reading about GM and the auto industry.)
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
Ummm, so just how many times did your parents drop you on your face as a child…
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
Wow you must have made it to hi school earth science…
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
Yeah, answer the gnome, Thug.
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
40 miles is not the average distance for 78% of US drivers. 78% of US drivers travel less than 40 miles per day. There is a good percentage that drives less than 15 miles per day, but that isn’t what will matter most for the plug-in Prius. It’s expected blended mode range will be most relevant rather than an ultra-lightfoot 12 miles AER.
Where are all those people that have been bashing GM’s announcements while praising Toyota for their straight talk? 230MPG is much more meaningful and realistic for a 40 mile AER EREV, than 12 miles AER is for this Prius.
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
By the end of 2011, the company plans to shutdown 14 of its US plants and three warehouses and also the sale/elimination of its four domestic brands.
————————————-
I think this is a typo: “sale/elimination of its four domestic brands.” I think it should read: sale/elimination of four of its domestic brands.” I also do not know what the fourth brand is.
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:35 pm
As a firm devotee of the game-changing Volt, I want and welcome the spread of electric vehicles by all competitors. One of the benefits of the Plug-in PHEV-10 Prius, is that the concept of mixes mileage, will be easier to demonstrate to many motorists. The concept of, and the larger benefits of, some fuel mileage coming from the wall circuit, and some from gasoline will spread.
There will be a real-world re-play of the UC Davis experience in the laboratories of the benefits of Parallel-series, Parallel-series plug-ins, and Series-EREV plug-in vehicles. Dr. Frank and his graduate students, haves done this contest before; and his discovered answers will sooner or later prevail.
It will also bump up the EPA figures for the Prius and help bring foreword the day until we can be eliminating petroleum as a security or economic issue, all together.
The sooner that the cartelistic power of the OPEC is broken, and Oil prices return to somewhere near cost of production, the better off the World as a whole, will be. The end of oil cartels, and the corruption it has brought to Oil countries, will help them in the long run too. Congratulations Toyota. Meanwhile…
The ICEage is ending. Embrace the VOLTage.
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
Toyota Shareholders? They are a private company there are no shareholders….
But I guess I see your point. Toyota is reluctant to bring out a plug-in Prius that won’t be a good return on investment.
I think the more plug-ins the better. It validates the concept and stimulates demand for more.
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September 10th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
Current battery capability restricts power output for 4KWh packs. If GM wanted to produce an extremely poor performing EV, especially for climbing hills, they could do it. It would also be a mostly gas consuming vehicle, except for those that drive very little or plug-in a lot. This is a reasonable implementation of a PHEV but it would be a lousy implementation for an EREV.
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September 10th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
GM has never had problems with marketing. It has been their main focus for years.
GM was number one until recently. They have not forgotten and are not asleep-at-the-wheel on this one. I am thinking they are really pi$$ed off that Toyota grabbed the lead.
‘Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie, and Chevrolet’
‘See the USA in your Chevrolet’
‘Zero percent financing’ (Don’t know if they invented it, but, they know a good thing when they see one.)
‘When you turn on your car, does it return the favor?’ (High-healed well-proportioned female leg flooring an accelerator pedal. GENIUS. CTS is a marketing dream! OMG.)
‘230′. Viral marketing at it’s best. EVERY major news feed had a story about it.
‘May the best car win’ (released today). If you don’t like it, get your money back!
These guys are marketing leaders and know how the game is played. All Volts built will pre-sell for the foreseeable future. Talk about sizzle. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Yikes!
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September 10th, 2009 at 11:08 pm
Caddy pearl-white for me!
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September 10th, 2009 at 11:21 pm
Selling lots of cars has never been GM’s problem. Making money — that’s been the problem.
Kinda like a $40,000 advertising campaign car that loses money till gen 3 is a problem.
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September 10th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
Carcus1,
some one seems to be following you around this post and putting a minus on all your comments! Who did you rile up!!!!!
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September 10th, 2009 at 11:26 pm
Go Ags !!
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September 10th, 2009 at 11:27 pm
GM has great marketing? Maybe in the 60s when they dominated the US market. But not anymore.
I just saw a GM commercial. I don’t watch much TV, so it’s probably old news. But anyway, it started with “at GM what we need is a comeback.” And then it launched into a description of various deals. If I were trying to design the world’s worst commercial, I think that would be on the list.
Memo to GM: The point of an advertisement is supposed to be to convince the consumer of what’s in it for the consumer. You don’t start an advertisement by saying you need the sales. Maybe if it’s to advertise a brand new incentive scheme, but that’s it.
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September 10th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
Loboc,
“You ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Yikes!”
_______________________
I hope that is correct.
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September 10th, 2009 at 11:41 pm
GM won’t answer the charge-sustaining mpg question directly but we can infer 38-39mpg from statements they have made.
Weber was asked if the car could go from Detroit to Chicago without refueling. “If it’s 300 miles or less, you should be OK.” The DetN has revealed an 8 gallon tank. 40 miles electric, 260 miles on 8 gallons. You do the math.
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September 10th, 2009 at 11:44 pm
Maybe Bob Lutz is in the house.
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September 10th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
As a parallel PHEV will the Prius still have to fire up the ICE on every start-up to warm the catalytic converter thus meeting EPA tail pipe exhaust standards? Seems like they could leave it on long enough to heat the converter the fist time it fires up, rather than having it on for every single trip.
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September 11th, 2009 at 12:00 am
Jackson – don’t remind me. Every time I hit the VHS play button and heard the clunk clunk bump, clunk clunk grrrrr, clunk whrrr on starting, I regretted not having the option of a beta system.
Right now electrification is new, we’ll see what difference consumer preference, features and marketing makes in the next few years.
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September 11th, 2009 at 12:09 am
Interesting innovation, although not much use to the American driver who wants to commute gas free to work. More a retirement car for older folks.
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September 11th, 2009 at 12:10 am
260 / 8 = 32.5 ?
Or is it 38-39 with the NEW math?
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September 11th, 2009 at 12:11 am
Not that much difference between parallel and serial hybrid at this point in the game. They all have the basic building-blocks: batteries and electric motors and an ICE.
Toyota is gaining experience in electric drive and batteries without the high-risk game-changing run that GM is taking. As they get more and more experience, they can dump the ICE and go directly to all electric just as serial can. Toyota plays their cards very close. They probably have a BEV in end-game development right now.
Designing cars today is mostly computer time. I expect that in the future, you will be able to submit a specification and get a custom car out the other end like a Dell computer.
Look at the Karma and Tesla. Almost everything is off-the-shelf. Heck, Karma is even using a GM ICE! It doesn’t surprise me at all that start-ups are doing cars in very short development timeframes. The traditional car makers were caught with their bytes down.
I think that the revolution of gasoline to electric drive will shock the Arabs and other oil producers. This is going to make VHS to DVD look like an eternity!
If GM doesn’t have an electric Corvette in developement, they are missing the boat. 1,000 ft-lbs @ zero RPM! OMG! Talk about launch control.
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September 11th, 2009 at 12:19 am
Of course. How could I have forgotten all the Iraqi oil now flooding the world markets! Oh, yeah, there isn’t any. So much for the blood for oil trade-off that Cheney is so fond of.
But you’re right, this is something Dick Cheney would say.
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September 11th, 2009 at 12:44 am
Do you work for Toyota or something? It’s all “bash the Volt” and “isn’t the Prius and Toyota so great!” with you.
Keep spouting… but I hope you have a thick skin because your gonna continue to get slammed.
These cars are not similar… they are apples to oranges. The Serial hybrid is the simplest design (and thus the hardest to mess up). While Toyota has had several years to tune the Prius, it is still a gasoline car that has an electric assist. Aftermarket batteries thrown in to boost the all electric range does not compare with building a car from the ground up to be an electric car with a stable and durable battery at its heart.
I’ll take the Volt any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
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September 11th, 2009 at 1:04 am
I’m willing to bet GM has bought and torn down multiple Prii.
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September 11th, 2009 at 1:48 am
Plug. Test Drive. A possible sale here!
I may be changing my original plan, which included scouring the Earth for a gen 1 Volt and then likely settling for a gen II. With a better-than-we-thought Prius III, I could actually afford this car, then sell it to family once the gen II Volt comes out.
The first plug-in sold around me that fits my loose requirements (superb mileage, highway speeds, and 200 mile range) will get my first look. If I can afford the car, the deal will almost certainly be made.
Luckily for Toyota, I have more incentives through them than through GM.
NPNS – keep those Volt wheels turning! =D~~~
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September 11th, 2009 at 3:46 am
It is still fugly
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September 11th, 2009 at 4:46 am
Agreed.
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September 11th, 2009 at 4:57 am
Toyota Shareholders Approve Founder’s Grandson
By Yuri Kageyama, AP Business Writer
Manufacturing.Net – June 23, 2009
TOYOTA, Japan (AP) — Toyota shareholders approved the appointment of the company founder’s grandson Akio Toyoda as new president Tuesday, hoping that reaching back to the automaker’s family roots will help steer the manufacturer out of its worst ever crisis.
Just Google Toyota shareholders. Over a half million hits.
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September 11th, 2009 at 5:02 am
Don’t forget, you are not taking into account the nanotechnology revolution that is happening right now. Huge difference.
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September 11th, 2009 at 5:06 am
Ha! Very good way to get that info. Perhaps that was like a Freudian slip.
32. 5 mpg at 65-ish mph sounds about right to me. We will know soon enough.
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September 11th, 2009 at 6:34 am
12.4 miles seems a bit anemic to me.
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September 11th, 2009 at 7:06 am
Yes. One hopes so. Hopefully we’ll see how it all turned out a couple years from now.
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September 11th, 2009 at 7:11 am
If the plug-in Prius comes out in 2012, it will get attention (maybe) for its price point, but not as much for being green. Its 12-mile AER will pale in comparison with the Volt, which by then will have been out for more than a year.
Also, I wonder how much the battery in the Prius plug-in must be depleted to deliver that 12-mile range. It could affect the life of the battery and that’s gonna be an unwelcome expense to Prius owners.
Finally, I suspect it won’t have near the performance of the Volt, since you have to drive it gently to get that 12-mile range. And what about running the AC etc? That, too, will cut down the range.
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September 11th, 2009 at 7:19 am
12 mile AER only under 62MPH and that’s just feathering the gas pedal. 12 Miles AER would be perfect for my commute but I’m on the highway 95% of the time so 62mph limit makes the plug in prius worthless to me. I’ll wait for my volt
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September 11th, 2009 at 7:23 am
Ticker TM
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September 11th, 2009 at 7:24 am
Hope so +20
Or maybe he just discovered the vote buttons.
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September 11th, 2009 at 7:30 am
IDK selling all you make has always been a good thing in my book.
Seems like GM could move to max capacity quickly enough if the Volt succeeds.
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September 11th, 2009 at 7:37 am
with a large enough battery pack they could electrically preheat the converter before starting up the ICE.
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September 11th, 2009 at 8:06 am
My routine shopping, entertainment, and recreation are all well within that range.
The key is the fact that the new Li-Ion battery-pack fits in the existing space, making the upgrade just a low-cost swap with an existing high-volume hybrid.
Of course, the “anemic” comment will come back to haunt anyway. Remember that there will be other vehicles offering more than just 40.
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September 11th, 2009 at 8:11 am
Yes the Prius AER seems close to half that of the Volt, would it not be odd if the Prius charge sustaining mode mileage was close to twice that of a Volt? Time will tell because GM is afraid to let the cat out of the bag.
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September 11th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Your curiosity is understood. Place yourself in NGMCO’s position. Is it in their best interest to present the changing R&D Black Lake specs on the Volt? Or is it best to hold details such as tank size, mpg (generator), lease or buy availability, sticker price, warranty, final dimensions, and location availability.
A recent article mentions Spring of 2010 for release of production details on the Volt. I would expect sales to begin at this time as well.
=D~
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September 11th, 2009 at 8:26 am
Toyota’s power split device would need to go. Any remaining belts from the ICE would need to go. Power the wheels/car with electricity only. Then figure out where to get the electricity from next. Either from a battery, a generator, whatever. The ICE should never drive the cars wheels (IMO). I would like to hear more news from Toyota working with companies for new low-power electric ancillaries too. I would also like to to know how they will condition their battery. However, this battery is only 4Kwh (i think that’s too small for a series design). I agree w/Lyle they are shooting for a lower price.
These are just some things i think would be higher on their list if they went w/the Series design. Then, when battery tech gets to where it needs to be, you can just remove the ICE (or possibly replace it with something else).
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September 11th, 2009 at 8:34 am
Think about how many approximated cost by adding the price of the upgrade battery-pack to the base model.
Pretty much everyone forgot to subtract the cost of the battery-pack already there.
High-Volume is the key. They want to draw in new consumers, those who would have settled for a 35 MPG traditional vehicle, not just the consumers who would have purchased a Prius anyway. That adds even more importance to keeping the price low.
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September 11th, 2009 at 8:35 am
“As a firm devotee of the game-changing Volt, I want and welcome the spread of electric vehicles by all competitors…..” An excellent oversight, Stas!
And clever wordplay: “The ICEage is ending. Embrace the VOLTage.”
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September 11th, 2009 at 8:38 am
Autoblog just had a report on speed vs. fuel economy. The biggest loser for fuel economy was the Honda Insight (the only hybrid measured). It went from 51.9 mpg @ 55mph to 36.6 mpg @ 75 mph. When discussing Volt’s mpg, remember that it, along with every other car out there has to follow the laws of nature and mpg is based on speed. The stickered highway mpg does not apply to many people. Most get less, but some can do better when they change their driving habits to take full advantage of the technology (I.E. Hypermilers).
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September 11th, 2009 at 8:50 am
Cash for Clunkers is a bit like the Police buying guns off the street and then melting them. It’s slightly less draconian than house to house searches and seizures of those same firearms. Plus it has the added benefit of raising the profits of gun smugglers/used car dealers.
If Republicans are willing to confiscate guns (at least in Iraq and Afghanistan) can we expect Democrats will be willing to some day seize offending vehicles here? Will Greenpeace warriors with tow-trucks come to liberate us?
In my day we just paid bodyguards to shoot offending dictators from inside their armored vehicles. 12-cent bullet. Villa on the Riviera for the lucky traitor. Problem solved.
As for Iraq, not worth the price of admission but:
One less weapons program
One less dictator
One less additional province (Kuwait) to finance a dictator’s weapons program.
One less source of bribery to divide alliances and endanger collective security.
One more thorn in the side of Iran.
I prefer my solution though. Buy a Volt. Plug it in. Starve the bastards.
One less source of money for dictators (two less if never toke, puff, or snort)
One (or more) less stop(s) at the gas station.
One less noxious smell.
One less noise.
One less Toyota.
One more really good meal out a month with the money saved on gas-powered commutes.
One less reason for the ICE to just wear out before I get my money’s worth.
One more chance for sustainable biofuels to finally replace gasoline without having to build and order of magnitude greater capacity.
One more chance for fuel cells to see what they can do.
One more chance for batteries to develop and one day replace heat engines.
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September 11th, 2009 at 8:51 am
Right perfect Stas !
JC
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September 11th, 2009 at 8:59 am
Certainly not far enough for the premium price and smaller size compared to the Volt. 12.4 miles? Are we stretching that a bit? Most likely that’ll be 10 or less miles of mild use, which means you’ll be run over in the U.S. from a stop light unless you use that engine to get moving. I have to agree with Dave G. A mild plug in hybrid like this is not going to draw much of my attention or about as much attention as the first GM hybrid pickups with a fantastic 10% increase in fuel mileage over their standard versions, it’s just not enough to even get me interested.
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September 11th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Agreed as well. Although, you can tell it’s a Prius from a mile away.
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September 11th, 2009 at 9:09 am
Electric car test drive
http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-CA&vid=ba52ccb7-ba68-45e7-9834-acba7f71bc9d
He drives the iMiev, Mini cooper and the Tesla..
Watch his face at about 2:30( He warns that he is about to floor it)…says it all about electric drive…
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September 11th, 2009 at 9:14 am
Anemic depends on your personal needs. Some here have expressed the need for a -20. While others think that -40 is not enough.
As most people here are saying/thinking. The first allocations to dealers will be pre-sold well in advance of delivery dates. You probably need to get your dealer(s) lined up now. Although, it would be difficult to say which dealers will get first allocations.
I’m with Tag. July 4th sales launch!
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September 11th, 2009 at 9:15 am
There are probably other changes such as a higher-output electric motor.
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September 11th, 2009 at 9:18 am
I have a strong suspicion that Toyota will price this option very close to the $3000 Federal tax credit.. they will run out the credit very quickly so hurry up and get yours.
The plug-in Prius may become the standard model, with the new Yaris hybrid becoming the economy model. It is very possible that the plug-in Prius battery pack will soon cost as much as the nimh pack they now use.. and perhaps easier for them to manufacture.
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September 11th, 2009 at 9:26 am
I believe the 2010 Prius has already dropped all of the accessory drive belts from the ICE.
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September 11th, 2009 at 9:30 am
I agree with fair trade but Japan for ever has bad mouthed all U.S. products in their country. Some deserve it but the majority do not. Yet we we talk about limiting our tax dollars for government rebates to U.S. manufacturuers and they cry foul. I agree that U.S. tax rebates should quilify only for use on U.S. based manufacturers.
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September 11th, 2009 at 9:31 am
Agreed. That particular one was weak. I haven’t seen it it a while and I watch a lot of TV especially DIY and HGTV (where there are lots of car commercials.) Going for the sympathy sale is not a good way to go imho.
They are still running the CTS and GMC commercials that were built before they crashed-and-burned. That is more like the marketing gurus that I remember.
The ones where they say something like ‘we have more models that get > 30 MPG’ is weak as well. They need to show moving, exciting vehicles, not a line of mono-colored cars all lined up on a showroom floor. That’s the Toyota/Honda/Hundai playbook.
The new (as of yesterday) ones where they are saying ‘If you don’t like it, we’ll give your money back’ may work better than this MPG crapola.
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September 11th, 2009 at 9:33 am
It’s the pioneers who get the arrows. God bless the pioneers!
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September 11th, 2009 at 9:43 am
Congrats to Toyota , and to GM’s Volt, without which, Toyota would not be making this announcement.
I’m all for electrification of the automobile (for many reasons), and am glad to see the reality unfold.
Yes,12 miles is a bit short. My plug-in gets me 20 to 25 miles electric, and 30 to 35 mixed mode (at 100 mpg). So, cutting that in 1/2 would be short for me. But, if I didn’t have mine, and the Volt wasn’t coming out, I would buy it in a flash!
Toyota errors on the conservative side. Else they would be coming out with a larger battery, based on the new generation vehicles (which have a more powerful electric motor then gen 3).
Of course, that would cost more.
=D~~~~
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September 11th, 2009 at 10:00 am
Burgundy Metallic
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September 11th, 2009 at 10:14 am
Well said.
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September 11th, 2009 at 10:18 am
I believe that one was coined by the Captain first…
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September 11th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Sure we can pay it back,
We’ll just print more money!
What?
We are already doing that?
uh oh…..
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September 11th, 2009 at 11:06 am
“…30 to 35 mpg is sounding pretty optimistic to me…”
Actually,that sounds pretty FUNNY to me. 30 mpg? Oh, you mean worse mileage than a conventional Chevy Cobalt (37 mpg highway EPA, and I have personally gotten 36 mpg)? You dream…
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September 11th, 2009 at 11:09 am
The Prius is neither series nor parallel. The HSD is a blend of both.
If Toyota adds a clutch to the transmission, they can use both motor/generators to push the car in electric mode. That’s a benefit over the volt where the generator/starter is just dead weight when running on battery range.
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September 11th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Nope, the 60 kW traction motor, PSD, invertor, and cooling system cover the needs of operation already.
Swapping the battery, body-panel change, wire tap, and software update is all that’s need.
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September 11th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Oh, I completely agree about that “more models that get >30 mpg.” one. They need to forget that line–right now. All it does is remnid people about GM’s reputation for duplicate models. Who cares how many models you have if they’re all the same car?
I hope the new one works better. It might. I do like the focus on the product. And it’s certainly gutsy…
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September 11th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
A base Prius may be only $22K, but a loaded Prius today is already over $30K. Ignoring the huge performance difference, it would be interesting to compare prices between a similarly equiped Volt and plug-Prius. I suspect the two prices are going to be closer than people think.
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September 11th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Dave G:
. The Prius drivetrain has had it’s run for over 10 years. Time to advance on up to EREV with full electric drive. I’m just not interested in a gas-consuming-everything-you-accelerate drivetrain anymore, plug or no plug.
True. I personally feel that for ME at this point the time for hybrids has passed (clearly not so for the general populace!
That and the Prius is just so slow, gas or no gas. Egads, we have to have at least some minimal performance standards!
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September 11th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
I call it parallel because it has both mechanical & electric propulsion, sometimes both working at the same time. But its not hard to get caught up in all the semantics and acronyms, especially reading the posts on this site.
As far as adding a clutch & regarding the transmission, i think its simple/better to not have a clutch or transmission (talk about dead weight).
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September 11th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
you are correct. they now use an electric water pump instead of driving it from the ICE w/a belt.
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September 11th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
If it can not drive at freeway speeds (65-75 MPH) on electric alone, then it is worthless as a plug in. That’s a pretty simple argument.
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September 11th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Perhaps I should have specified that I still think the Volt will be far superior, even when the price difference (based on speculative MSRPs) is considered.
For all intents and purposes, the plug-in Prius will still be a gasoline-only car. Sure you can drive around the parking lot on electricity, but once you try to accelerate or get on the freeway, the engine will take over and start burning gasoline.
Not so for the Volt. Even on the freeway, I’ll be using carbon-free, terrorist-free, and trade-deficit-free power from a local hydroelectric or wind power plant.
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September 11th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
It is far from worthless.
The upgrade provides a BOOST. In other words, instead of 50 MPG, you’d see 75 MPG.
Remember, it is a different type of hybrid.
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September 11th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
For me personally, that’s the line in the sand. I have two miles of city driving and 18 miles of highway driving for my one-way commute. A hybrid is just a waste of resources & money when a diesel or a small displacement turbo/DI/ gas engine can get the same mileage numbers. The 100% ICE Cruz getting 50 MPG with a 1.4L direct injection turbo four cylinder should be the alternate to the Volt, not a Japanese hybrid that has the lime light as America’s green vehicle.
The Volt works because an individual can drive to and from work using no gasoline. There’s also the cool factor of driving an electric car and not having to burn gas. The gas generator is still there for road trips when I need it 3-4 times a year as well. I would rather use Utah’s coal and natural gas for power generation rather then a foreign country’s oil anyway.
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September 11th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Same numbers?
None of the auto publications have found a non-hybrid like that (50 MPG real-world), without significant down size & power.
Face it, something using an electric-motor and battery-pack is needed.
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September 11th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
WTF?
Where the fuk did this article or release say this was an electric vehicle?
I can’t find it.
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September 11th, 2009 at 11:08 pm
“I call it parallel because it has both mechanical & electric propulsion, sometimes both working at the same time. But its not hard to get caught up in all the semantics and acronyms, especially reading the posts on this site.”
Some power goes directly mechanical, making it sort of parallel. Some of the power produced by the engine is converted to electricity and reconverted back to mechanical, making it sort of series. Neither definition fits.
“As far as adding a clutch & regarding the transmission, i think its simple/better to not have a clutch or transmission (talk about dead weight).”
The weight of a clutch is very small compared to the weight of a motor that it’s sized for. The savings in weight of being able to downsize the MG2 motor/generator would be far bigger than the extra weight of a clutch.
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September 12th, 2009 at 1:35 am
I think you still have the Prius price set too high.
Based on the stats and the Volt battery cost estimates, we can expect that the Prius plug-in battery would be ~$2,000. But you can also subtract the price of the existing Prius battery.
It doesn’t sound like they have changed much else on the plug-in Prius.
When all is said and done the plug-in version might be only $2,000-$3,000 more than the existing Prius BEFORE rebates.
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September 15th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
If I can tune my car to get 35-40 MPG (2.0 Liter, twin scroll turbo, direct injection, variable cams) then an auto maker can build a specialized high mileage car. I drive a RWD, wide tire Solstice GXP that has a cd of .46! GM is working on a 1.4L version of my engine that will get 46 HWY with the non-electric Volt/Cruz. The tech is there, an automaker just needs to build an updated Geo metro. For example, check out the VWL1, a diesel two seater premiering at today’s Frankfurt Auto Show. The VWL1 is 1100 pounds, can carry two passengers, and is running a small turbo diesel for 158 MPG!
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