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GM-Volt.com Speaks with Audi President Johan de Nysschen
Last week Audi North America President Johan de Nysschen was quoted as saying the Chevy Volt was a ”car for idiots.” This led to an explosion of web controversy.
Finding this comment hard to believe, and as an ardent Volt enthusiast, I sought the truth direct from the source, and had a half hour informal conversation with Mr. de Nysschen as an interchange of ideas.
Business Case Idiotic, Not People
De Nysschen underscored the debacle of his quote by noting the tragic irony that a senior executive two weeks before the launch of his own company’s electric car would be calling people who would by them idiots.
“I don’t think the Volt is a car for idiots,” he said. He claimed the headline was a journalist’s misinterpretation, and that his point was that the Volt was “an idiotic business case,” and not how he would refer to people.
“We might as well have been taking about the Tesla,” he said. “I am not an enemy of the (Volt) concept.” But he argues that we should not think of it as a magic bullet.
He thinks the business case for an electric car is idiotic because buyers “cannot amortize their incremental fixed investment in the cost of the car to the savings in fuel consumptions.”
And for those who are willing to supplement the cost through affluence for the sake of the environment, his opinion is that benefit is not clear either.
Questions CO2 Emissions Benefit of Electric Cars
de Nysschen said that he “cares very, very deeply about the planet, what we are doing to it and how our activities of today are shaping tomorrow.”
A prominent fallacy he says is that electric cars cause zero emissions, and said he was “astonished” such “misconceptions” are even held by people in positions of power who make legislative decisions and are close-minded to other options.
He is troubled that coal-fired power plants and related efficiency losses eventually release more CO2 than burning diesel, and referred to a CARB report that says electric power cars are second only to hydrogen powered cars in terms of the well to wheel emissions because of the way US gets its power. Though he did admit that it would be a different equation if electricity were created by renewable sources.
I asked him if he was aware of the EPRI-NRDC study from 2007 that showed CO2 emissions from EVs supplied by current powerplants would be less than if those cars were gas powered. He admitted he was “not familiar with that study.”
Agrees Energy Independence Important
As he had never mentioned it, I told him what I’ve noticed about Volt fans, and told him I have a list of 50,000 people, is a common theme of a desire for energy independence; that people don’t want energy from foreign sources.
He agreed that “that is a very worthwhile argument.”
But, “getting people to understand the benefits of clean diesel is important,” he said. He argued that if 30% of new cars sold in the US were to be clean diesel (the number right now is 50% in Europe), we would save as much oil annually as we import from Saudi Arabia, which is 1.5 billion barrels of oil per year.
Thinks Other Alternatives Should Come Before EVs
He says waiting to get to the “promise land” of EVs will lead to a lot of “dirt in the atmosphere” and instead feels we should move to complementary technologies sooner, including clean diesel, new generation gas engines, and biofuels.
He admitted diesel still comes from foreign sources and won’t make us independent, but less dependent. He argues it would do so because we would “need less of it (than gas) because diesel engines are more efficient.”
To get that diesel, he explains, when a barrel of oil is cracked it can be varied to produce more diesel than gasoline by tuning the distillation process. He also says diesel engines, being more efficient, produce 25% less CO2, have “beautiful power characteristics,” and are more economical.
He points out that the US has the world’s largest resources of natural gas, and argues that we could use it to power some of the power plants, though notes it’s more expensive than coal. He suggested the government should subsidize the use of natural gas in powerplants.
He also argues the natural gas could be used to produce clean diesel in a gas to liquid process, though admits it’s still a fossil fuel and not renewable.
He suggests another good option is using ethanol, not from corn which he called “an outrage”, but from new technologies creating it from waste material. He admits this wouldn’t result in vehicles which themselves do not produce emissions.
Electric Cars
He does believe electric cars “are the solution in the long-term,” but thinks we won’t get to that point for 20 years.
If we want EVs, he says, we face potentially “staggering” investments including cleaning up coal-powered plants and generating new capacity. Simply switching to EVs right now, he says, without cleaning up power generation is just “adding more pollution to the environment.”
Though he thinks the Volt’s business case is “troublesome” it doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t go down that road, he said. In fact, he actually supported it saying “how else would we learn and get experience and expertise (in EVs),” such that “the next generation is better.”
For that reason, in fact, he admitted “Audi too is working on electric cars and on the verge of making announcement about electric cars of their own.”
He believes in particular dense urban conditions such as the US West Coast, it makes sense to have cars that produce zero emissions where they are used. Here he says he sees “a massive role” for electric cars and “cars such as the Volt.”
The Chevy Volt
Doesn’t Work For Him
Asked why he thinks it will take 20 years for EVs to take hold he said one issue is the cost of the batteries, and the other is the limited amount of energy that can be stored in them.
I pointed out that the whole point of the Volt is it has the smallest battery possible that would allow most people to drive all of their daily needs without gas, thus minimizing battery cost and maximizing electrical driving.
He claimed the information Audi has is that the range available with these batteries is that if you are in heavy stop and go traffic with max 10 mph speed you could get “a tolerable amount of range.” But he said if you are doing highway driving 30 miles each way, as he does personally, it is his opinion that “he would have to switch to the gas motor long before he gets to work,” and that “even after he gets to work the infrastructure isn’t there to charge the battery.”
He would then have to drive the car home on gas too, in which case, he says ”the whole issue becomes a little bit moot, because if he’s driving mostly on the gas, it doesn’t work for him.” He admitted “it might well work” for other people with shorter commutes and different driving conditions.
He actually said “we should not summarily dismiss the (Volt) technology.” He admits “there is a role for it.” The people that buy the car will have to be “a particular subset of the total commuting public.”
Questions Value Proposition
I asked about why he thinks the Volt doesn’t offer what it should at $40,000.
To be fair he said, “I have never obviously driven a Volt” but admits “he has always looked at the car with great interest.” He even sat in it at an auto show, and said “it’s not exactly a Cadillac.”
He considers it very similar to the Saturn Aura which he thought was a “fine GM car,” and actually said he was “sad to see Saturn’s demise.” He then said the Volt would not be a better car but cost twice as much.
What you are getting, he says, is in his circumstance is half time zero emissions, zero fuel emissions. This is why he thinks if most people did the math they would have to find another reason why they would buy the Volt, it won’t be to save money.
I argued that the first generations of new technology always have to be subsidized by the well off who may have many different reasons for buying it.
“You are right,” he said, all new technology always cost more. He noted that was why luxury cars usually lead the way with groundbreaking technology.
I asked if he believed that that Chevy Volt design doesn’t match a high end car. “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder,” he said. “I don’t find it an unattractive car.”
“Its not a premium car feel,” he said. “But it’s got a premium car price.”
I argued it may not be a value equation but that there is the $7500 tax credit to bring it to $32,500.
He says this issue is his main point, whether this government expense is “the best way to clean up the environment,” and that there might be a better way to apply those tax credits to incentivize the utility companies to clean up the power stations.
Audis’ Electric Car Plans
I asked if Audi was planning a production electric car or an EREV and he did not actually provide an answer. He said what Audi and all car companies need to do is to continue to make gas and diesel engines for “many, many years in the future,” but they have to also produce hybrid cars and plug in electrics.
I asked if he thinks the idea of driving electrically with its smooth instant torque and driving pleasure was of value. He said he thinks it is a “very interesting driving experience” and admitted he has driven Audi’s own electric car prototypes and that “it’s very different.” He thinks it will be part of the engineering challenge to still “maintain an exhilarating driving experience and not seem like driving a golf cart.”
Asked specifically if he thought the Volt was a reasonable piece of the puzzle, he said “Oh absolutely, and even a required piece of the puzzle.”
For what its worth I told him I was the de facto number one Volt fan. He said “I certainly would never want to call you an idiot.”
Finally I asked him for information about Audi’s upcoming EV. He said he would “love to” tell me, but it would remove the fanfare from Audi’s announcement in Frankfurt, “so we’ll have to wait on that one.”
September 8th, 2009 at 6:14 am
The Volt is just as premium as any of the stinking diesels Audi sells.. and way better, smooth instant torque, quiet and no fuel used for the first 30-40 miles.. I am getting used to the Volt at $40 k, obviously its not for everyone but there wont be that many Volts anyways.
Has anyone heard of the Renault Elect’Road?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elect‘road
The Renault Elect’Road was the first erev sold..it begin selling in 2003 and was discontinued after 500 were sold.
It uses a manually controlled 21hp genset to extend the range of its 13kwh nimh battery pack. Electric only range is 50 miles, 60mph max speed.
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September 8th, 2009 at 6:25 am
Nice work on the follow-up, Lyle.
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September 8th, 2009 at 6:27 am
Good job with the interview Lyle.
Thank you Mr. Nysschen for your opinions regarding EV, the Volt, the future of fuel, and the direction of Audi.
My belief is that the first 100,000 (or more) Volt will be sold before the paint dries. The only hurdles I see are NGMCO going with a lease format. Or if the Volt ends up overpriced by greedy middle men.
Again, thanks for your imput and good luck with your product line.
=D~
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September 8th, 2009 at 6:28 am
Well i don’t think Audi sells stinking diesels. Actually let’s face it, Audi cars looks great. But i believe that fuel economy is a very important detail of a vehicle. While it’s obvious that Volt does not look like a 40k car, it will pay you back when you start using electricity. Plus it doesn’t have to be a magic bullet. You just gotta sell some Volts and the prices would go down over time, and the design of the car will probably be better too. As I said before, GM should have worked a little more on the design of Volt. Don’t get me wrong I like the car, but i just think it doesn’t look like a 40k car. Considering their claims that the performance and feel of the car are great, why was it that hard to come up with a design of a 40k car? Just the design!
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September 8th, 2009 at 6:28 am
Not a very well thought out set of answers for a man in his position. His answers tend towards the uninformed.
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September 8th, 2009 at 6:31 am
I dont think anyone on this site is against diesels. Alot of people have expressed a desire for a diesel range extender.
With a combination of the Volts battery and a high mpg diesel range extender running on biodiesel (Hopefully not from corn) plus our domestic supply of oil is the quickest way to getting away from foreign oil.
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September 8th, 2009 at 6:32 am
here is a better link:
http://tinyurl.com/lfmpyj
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September 8th, 2009 at 6:35 am
Oh Humble pie, never tasted so good……..
The Volt is a very necessary vehicle as NONE of the other manufactures had the guts to do so, including Audi.
I’m very glad that GM with Volt is setting the pace.
Well done GM.
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September 8th, 2009 at 6:46 am
Price drop over time. . . .Like what we’ve seen on the two-mode Hybrid Tahoes and Silverados?
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September 8th, 2009 at 6:56 am
From the article (Well done, Lyle)
But, “getting people to understand the benefits of clean diesel is important,” he said. He argued that if 30% of new cars sold in the US were to be clean diesel (the number right now is 50% in Europe), we would save as much oil annually as we import from Saudi Arabia, which is 1.5 billion barrels of oil per year.
A smoker who cuts down from 3 packs a day to one, is still a smoker.
A drug addict who only shoots up once a day instead of 3, is still an addict.
In his argument, we may use 1.5 billions barrels less oil per year, but we are still users. We need to get off of oil, not continue to support it.
Volt is a very very good first logical step off of oil.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:00 am
I think most people assume that battery prices will fall over the next decade as interest in batteries for automotive use skyrockets.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:00 am
nuclearboy,
I got the same sense of his experience with electric vehicles being seriously limited. I’m sure Lyle could run rings around him (and did in the interview).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:02 am
Martin,
Yeas, the fellow nearly tore ligaments doing a turnaround oin his opinion!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:05 am
First, thanks to Lyle for another great interview. It’s nice to get he real story direct from the source.
Unfortunately, my opinion of Johan de Nysschen has not changed. I basically disagree with most of what he says in the interview.
If gasoline goes back to $4/gallon, the amount of gas savings over 10 years will make the Volt cost around the same as a Honda Civic. So, as it turns out, with the federal tax credit, the Volt is not expensive to own. And as the production volume goes up, costs will come way down, so the tax credit will be unnecessary in the future.
As for CO2 emissions, I also disagree, and so does Nova:
“Skeptics say that all plug-ins do is shift the pollution source from the tailpipe to the smokestack, but studies show that powering cars with electricity from today’s mix of power plants could reduce greenhouse emissions by about 40 percent. Further reductions are possible if electric power gets cleaner.”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/programs/ht/tm/3507.html?site=22&pl=wmp&rate=hi&ch=5
About the only thing I agree with the that the future will have more bio-fuels, but for me, that only seems viable if EREVs go mainstream. Without making most of the miles driven electric, bio-fuels will start cutting into our food supply. So I see bio-fuels as a perfect solution for the range extender, but not as a replacement for all of today’s gasoline consumption.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:17 am
Rally good interview Lyle.
For the preisdent of a company to be saying the things he was saying, when in a week they are going to be introducing their own electric vehicle, just seems kind of strange. It is almost like the corporate management is not really behind the project. And it really does not sound like he has read any of the reports we have talked about here with respect to all of the unused electric generating capacity at night that can be used to charge millions of electric vehicles without increasing capacity.
Or is it that they can not come in at the $40K price of the Volt, and are tring to say that electric vehicles must cost much more, and therefore are not the path to follow.
If his round trip commute is 60 miles, then he is also out of the norm for the 78% of the drivers in the USA that have commutes of less than 40 miles. So that is the reason not to go forward???
I am sorry, but this guy just does not sound very progressinve to me.
An optomist will work through all problems to get something they truly believe in accomplished.
A pessimist will just fret about why something is not able to be done.
Which catagory do you think Mr. Johan de Nysschen fits in? I think if I owned stock in the company, I would be calling for a change of leadership……
Here is the exciting (NOT!) web site Audi has set up for their electric car…..
http://www.audiusa.com/us/brand/en/exp/progress.html#source=http://www.audiusa.com/us/brand/en/exp/progress/electricityuntamed.html?csref=inin_electricityuntamed&container=layerModal
JMHO
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:21 am
No. Two-mode Hybrid Tahoes and Silverados don’t sell that much. But you already knew that, didn’t you?
The point of the Volt is that it is meant for the masses. The tax credit will help sales initially. After the first 250,000 Volts sold, I believe the costs will have come down to the point where the tax credits are unnessary.
The Prius followed a similar pattern – using tax credits at first to make it more viable. Now that the Prius tax credits have expired, the production volume and associated cost is such that the tax credits are unnessary.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:22 am
If you DO THE MATH for every car you consider of course buying a horse or a bicycle may be cheaper. SO when does a regular car ever pay you back for its cost. Answer: It never does, in fact it depreciates as fast as you can pay it off, so whats his point. For some ,driving while using no gas is all the luxury they need.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:25 am
A volt with an array of solar collectors on the garage roof (my version of the perfect car) would change his equation quite a bit.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:26 am
Great score on the interview Lyle. There was too much wishy washy remarks on Johann’s behalf for me to take him seriously. His own Company is days away from unveiling their own EV and yet he still fights and argues how EV’s are dirtier than diesels because of coal fired power plants. He goes back and forth so many times through the interview I got dizzy reading it. I think deep down, reading between the lines, he doesn’t like the EV concept as a whole. But he is required to like it because Audi and everyone else are pursuing it. He’s a diesel guy tried and true and no amount of logic, data, studies, or statistics will change his mind about that. That’s fine, he is entitled to his opinion, no matter how narrow.
The thing GM needs to take home from this is that Mr. N. is not the only person that feels this way about the Volt and other EV’s. There are many people out there that need to understand and see for themselves why an EREV is such a great solution. The burden is on GM to show these people what the Volt can do for them, then sales and profits will eventually follow.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:31 am
That sure nails it. It never pays you back.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:35 am
What percentage of the volt’s $40,000+ price tag do you think is tied up in battery cells?
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:35 am
I take it that any views other than Mr Johan de Nysschen are idiotic. Now, he’s trying to weasel his way of out his negative Volt remark.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:36 am
This transision period from fossil fuels to electric is going to be tough going for a few years and there are always going to be those who think backwards. Batteries obviously need further development as do solar panels. There is no alternative but electric so we must push on. When gasoline hits four to six dollars a gallon you will not be able to find a Chevy Volt anywhere for sale, waiting period may be two years or more.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:38 am
Excellent remarks Rashiid. Well said.
+50
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:40 am
Randy,
Well put. Similarly, retirement never “pays you back” but the luxury of having time to do whatever you want (as long as it doesn’t involve money) is incredible!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:43 am
Schmeltz,
Yep, he’s no Bob Lutz! (g). (ducks and covers)
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:44 am
Bravo Lyle for clearing this up. Clean diesel has a place in cutting back on oil consumption and again it is something that can be bought now. They also should be designed now to run on bio-diesel.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:45 am
From the article,
He is troubled that coal-fired power plants and related efficiency losses eventually release more CO2 than burning diesel, and referred to a CARB report that says electric power cars are second only to hydrogen powered cars in terms of the well to wheel emissions because of the way US gets its power.
I am not an expert, and I don’t play one on TV.
However, it seems logical to me that is easier to control pollution at one side (coal plant) than it is on millions of cars and trucks.
It will be quicker and easier to upgrade pollution controls at one location than it will be to upgrade pollution controls on millions of cars and trucks. This argument about the power plants not being clean and this is why we shouldn’t go EV, is getting a bit old.
Personally, I would like my Volt to use E85 from cellulose for now.
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September 8th, 2009 at 7:58 am
As I stated before, both he and the North American Toyota head are shrilling howling for attention for their advanced alternative fuel / propulsion techs, trying to draw attention from the spotlight on plugin hybrids and BEV’s. It is a sign of frustration that they cannot get any media attention for their products.
Johan is a fool. ICE vehicles are going to be a majority of the vehicle market share for decades, as most people will not be able to afford the first generation(s) EREV’s, BEV’s, FCV’s and PFCEV’s (plugin fuel cell electric vehicle). He has nothing to worry about, but has run his mouth anyway.
Audi would be wise to replace him ASAP.
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September 8th, 2009 at 8:07 am
more than 1/3 of the cost is attributable to the batteries.. we know the raw cost to GM is $12k for the complete battery pack ($8k for the cells alone).. then you have to also include warranty cost for the pack and the cost of money to make all this happen.
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September 8th, 2009 at 8:14 am
A diesel range extender is a bad idea, many people will seldom use the range extender at all.. 80% of the publics commute is under 40 miles daily. Diesels are heavy, expensive, use exotic emission controls and are maintenance prone.. why would you want to saddle a Volt with something like this when it would seldom be used?
Many people own Volkswagen diesels, ask them about maintenance cost long term.. not when the car is 2 years old.
GM did the right thing by choosing a standard engine from their stable, nothing too exotic.. heck not even a turbo.
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September 8th, 2009 at 8:16 am
I think his days at Audi are numbered..
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September 8th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Joe,
I guess you could say that he’s “RE-Volting” (groan).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 8:36 am
I’ve never in my life seen a finer technical interview which brought about the revelation of the most pervasive circular-logic, inconsistent marketer’s positioning, and technically-foolish and dishonest representations whereby an executive has impeached himself to the maximum extent technically-possible.
All for their own twisted marketing of a type of engine which produces carcinogenic diesel microparticulates which the lungs can not expel.
He will undoubtedly claim “I didn’t see that study” when it is his firm’s turn to be brought to answer for its more dangerous form of carcinogenic pollution, for which I believe there are not yet laws on the books here in America. (Most certainly not in Germany, the place where diesel was invented).
Once again, and in even a more gross manner, he has brought additional further discredit upon his firm which by now as we now know, consist of these corporate competitive self-deceits that are so firmly established and entrenched, only the deluded would not now recognize its own self-damages and cause rational change.
For some, overt or subvert “hints” do not work. But if gentle direct and blunt statements which are made at a whisper level that their situation has proved to be very harmful for specific reasons does not work right away, then often they may work later.
Otherwise, the clear protest of free speech can warn the public beforehand.
These interviews are imperative for us all to continue to understand how executives who make these decisions affecting our personal health and future global health refuse to do their “due diligence”. Design-entrenchment blocks them from referencing outside independent research for safety and everything else (which is their very job). And, all too often, very deliberately and/or callously disregarding or abrogating rational and clear responsibilities.
Thank you Lyle, for your exceptional work. You are quite a hero it’s clear to me and most of us here.
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September 8th, 2009 at 8:54 am
The only problem with your approach it will cost an arm and a leg. And a kidney.
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September 8th, 2009 at 8:56 am
Bingo Rashiid !!!
I just had a conversation last night and this is (one of) the exact arguments I used for my “formidable (Volt) opponent”…. he owns an ‘08 VW Golf and loves it – he is a big German engineering guy (as am I actaully)…and this guy loves to argue….
So when I brought up this whole Johan @ Audi calling people idiots thing he, not surprisingly, totally agreed with Johan and started bashing the Volt for several reasons…and because of my time here on GM-Volt.com…I totally “nailed” this guy’s arguments…
His reasons and my responses (paraphrased of course)
1) The Volt at $40k is WAY too expensive, it isnt ecomonical —- agreed BUT aren’t all things that are in their 1st generation, how much was the first CD palyer? or the first iPod? you gotta start somewhere = NAILED HIM
2) The pollution will simply be moved from the tailpipes to the power plants it will not help the environment —- somewhat agreed but (see your comment above) = NAILED HIM
3) GM’s reliability vs. almost any other car company is terrible —- OK, niether of us are really GM guys but I know they have gotten better over the past few years BUT what are all these other car company’s track records on reliability of ELECTRICALLY driven vehicles? answer ZERO = NAILED HIM
4) I cant imagine that this Volt or any other electric car will be fun to drive —- Well, of course I would need to test drive the Volt before any final decisions are made but as far as the potential just go check out a little company called Tesla (which he only heard of but knew very little about) = NAILED HIM (sort of)
Then I gave him the main reason why the Volt is a ground-breaking technology and why we NEED this electric revolution to take hold here ….. which is to use less and less foreign oil….to which reluctantly agreed.
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September 8th, 2009 at 8:57 am
I agree, but more to the point when gas gets to $4+ diesel will be even more expensive per gallon. At least that’s the experience over the last decade or so…
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:00 am
When gasoline will hit 6-8 bucks price range the US economy will be in a free fall in such a way that Great Depression will be renamed to Little Recession. By then no one will be able to afford $40k car. Last year we got a taste of $4/gallon gas: 10% unemployment followed.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:03 am
I’m having my garage roof painted with thin film solar and a Esstore battery pack to which I power the house and recharge my Volt!! Life is good !!! 9-8-19 see ya soon!!
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:04 am
What are you talking about, Randy? My car pays me every day. I go to work, and the only way in the US to get to work is to drive a car. There is no public transportation in suburbs. Don’t you know that?
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:05 am
i said this before, but everytime i hear about diesel, the idea that it will be better for our energy dependence is just false. i ahve seen this stat used in a few different places now and the numbers are always the same…
“About 20 gallons of gasoline and 7 gallons of diesel are produced from each barrel of crude oil. ”
source: http://genomicsgtl.energy.gov/biofuels/transportation.shtml#gallons
so if we all went to diesel, we would hit peak oil a LOT FASTER!!!!
i did more research, and i found that his “and” was meant to be an “or” in the above quote.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:07 am
Is there a difference between “clean diesel” and the diesel that’s available now? Or is it the same thing?
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:12 am
lyle, give google a chance and search for audi a1.
maybe you’ll find a hybrid concept, similiar to the volt
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:14 am
Oil independence is one of those idiotic arguments. US came out strong most times exactly because they were pragmatic, not fanatic. Americans used common sense and counted pennies better than anybody else. Nowadays this becomes a rare commodity. Trendsetters are paying top buck for “feeling good”. Is dependency on China or Bolivia better tasting than on Saudis?
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:24 am
ha-ha-ha. That was funny. But not realistic in 2019. Or did you mean 3019?
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:25 am
With respect, you are mistaken, Sheltonjr.
Americans will be very difficult to sway to diesel. Most of our actual experiences sharing the road with them (and to some degree with owning them) have been far less than ideal.
Hopefully, HCCI will offer many of the benefits of diesel without much of the expense for ‘clean’ fuel, heavy engine blocks, and several other distinctly diesel disadvantages.
As for German automakers’ (not just Audi’s) vision of diesel utopia, it simply isn’t going to happen here. That’s not to say that diesel might not have a larger role in the States given plentiful, clean bio-diesel (which is an uncertain prospect at this point).
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Is being dependent on anything better than standing on ones own feet?
No.
We can generate 100% of the power we need to electrify the automobile. And we can do this without relying on any foreign country. It will just take some time. The Volt is a good first step towards that goal.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:31 am
I don’t normally post, but I had to say I find it hypocritical that the CEO of Audi can say that people will have to find a reason other than saving money to buy a Chevy Volt. If saving money was the reason people bought cars, then the Audi line of vehicles would fail miserably.
It seems to me a CEO of a company that’s concerned that there is a product that may just resonate with customers, even if the first generation of technology isn’t economically viable – people WILL buy it for other reasons. The price will come down – IMO, it’s probably the best bridge to full battery electric vehicles. If Audi believes BEV’s won’t be ready for 20 years… then the Volt has a 20-year window to capitalize. If I were him, I’d be worried about my competitor having the first-mover advantage and talk smack about it. Oh, that IS what is happening.
Brian
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:32 am
so maybe it makes more sense to spend those 7500 rebates on improving oil refinement process than subsidizing new VOLT-oys? The guy said it is possible.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:43 am
What percentage of the volt’s $40,000+ price tag do you think is tied up in battery cells?
The cost of the cells is $8K, so that would be 20%. Another $3.5K is for the electronics and other parts of the pack. The rest of the premium is for all the specialized parts you need for an EV. I’m not a big believer that cell prices will fall that quickly, but the good news is that the controller and other parts should come down very quickly.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:46 am
I still think GM should seriously look at converting the entire light truck (half tons and Tahoes) production to 2-mode drive. With volume production comes significant cost savings.
This does two things; first of all you instantly have the most fuel efficent truck fleet by a significant margin and this means that GM is well ahead of the CAFE fleet mileage requirements in one shot.
Seems like a no-brainer to me.
There is a rather silly TV show called “Mean Green Machines”, they compared the Hybrid Tahoe against a regular Silverado in several challenges, off road, towing, acceleration, etc. Performance wise it was basically a wash, but the Tahoe gets much better gas mileage.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:46 am
Yes, congrats to Lyle. He’s burnishing his journalistic credits more every day!
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Aside from the battery, the other cost issue for Volt 1.0 is the “new” parts needed for the car. Lutz noted earlier in one of his comments that GM needed more “new” things developed than they originally estimated. This apparently added $10K to the cost since he initially assumed they would use off the shelf stuff and the car should cost around $30K.
Prices for these “new” components should drop over time too as they become more standardized with EV adoption.
Future EREV designs should not cost twice as much as a similarly outfitted ICE vehicle.
If they could shave $5K off the cost of the “new” stuff and $5K off the cost of a battery we could have a $32K car instead of a $42K car.
Let’s hope they can actually do it.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:50 am
JMH: “It is a sign of frustration that they cannot get any media attention for their products.”
The poor, sad folks at Toyota will just have to console themselves with sales of over 18K Priuses per month. How tragic it is to be Toyota.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:52 am
You’re on a roll today.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:52 am
Thanks Murray.
I had the opportunity to talk to a guy this weekend at Blackies.
If you lived near me, you would know that Blackies is a burger, hot dog joint that started in the early 1930’s.
He saw my Volt T-shirt and we started talking.
He was confusing the Volt with the Tesla, but I set him straight by explaining the Volt is way cheaper and without range anxiety.
He wasn’t familiar with range anxiety. We ended up having a nice talk. I have no clue who he is but he left well educated about the Volt.
That was a fun conversation.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:54 am
All the government would have to do in order to improve oil refinement in the US is to remove or modify the current regulatory barriers which have prevented any new oil refineries from being built here over the past 30 – 40 years. These regulations, under the guise of environmental protection, have instead proven to be a moratorium; a legal gauntlet that no oil company has been willing to run. This is an example of how government impedes rather than assists private sector energy solutions. No regulation which results in the strangulation of an industry can be construed as “successful,” because it removes all incentive for positive change; indeed, in this case it has resulted in no change of any kind.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:54 am
exactly.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:58 am
There are two other issues with diesels. One is that “clean diesel” is something of an oxymoron. Diesel engines are more efficient but they also emit more pollution. To reduce the emissions enough so as to meet clean air regulations you add a lot of cost to the car, as Fritz Hendersio has intimated when saying that to sell a diesel you need to sell a car and a chemical plant.
Second is that the cost of diesel is too affected by subsidies in other countries. In Europe diesel is not taxed as heavily as gasoline. In China, India, and the rest of Asia and many other parts of the world, governments limit the price of diesel. If oil spikes the governments limit the price increases, which leads to greater demand for diesel fuel. Since the amount of diesel produced from a barrel of oil is limited, what happens in a country like he USA where the price of diesel is not subsidized is that the price rise for diesel fuel is much greater than the price increase in gasoline. Basically when you have an oil crisis you don’t want a vehicle powered by a diesel engine.
Cellulostic ethanol is a better bet than diesel if for no other reason than cellulostic ethanol would be renewable and carbon neutral.
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September 8th, 2009 at 9:59 am
This is one of the few times we disagree Jackson.
I’d very much like a diesel genset, my genset WILL run at least weekly and I’d like to have the efficency of a modern diesel in that mode.
MOST of the bad diesel memories are ironically GM’s fault!
The TERRIBLE converted 350 diesels in the 70’s are what MOST people in NA think of when they say bad things about diesels.
(There is no other way to put it they were TERRIBLE!)
The second bad diesel thing is there are “yahoo’s” that have the modern diesel pickups that have gone ahead and put poorly engineered ‘hop-up’ kits on their trucks that make them smoke terribly.
A properly setup modern diesel does NOT smoke like that and DOES deliver excellent economy.
Herm;
Poor quality from an automaker who has a poor quality record isn’t really all THAT surprising is it?
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:02 am
Is that why Audi is making money?
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:02 am
If we never start projects like Volt (or for that matter, Audi’s BEV), they will remain 20 years away, in perpetuity.
You can’t make a cost over benefits argument for anything new. You start at the point where it’s just possible to establish a market, and grow from there. Hence, we’ve seen first Toyota and now Audi do their best to kill the seed before it can take root.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Your point is well taken, but if you take a longer view we need to move away from oil and find more renewable sources of energy. We need increasing amounts of energy to fuel economic growth, and the simple fact is that there simply isn’t enough oil to fuel the economy for the next hundred years.
This is not a new process. When mankind started running out of wood, being practical meant finding another source of energy, not using more and more expensive wood.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Diesel in NA is now the same as Europe as of last year. Prior to that we had real crap that helped ‘fuel’ stories of why diesels are bad.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:05 am
The government is good at setting penalties for failing to meet a requirement (CAFE); I wonder if they could be made interested in providing a reward for exceeding it?
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:06 am
Which make the Audi NA comments even MORE bizarre!
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:08 am
dagwood,
Always a ray of sunshine, aren’t you.
I wish you could…
be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:09 am
I didn’t say that diesels were bad, just that Americans would be very difficult to sway, for whatever reason (including those you that you gave).
If I could be sure of finding biodiesel at reasonable price as universally as I could find regular unleaded gasoline (or E85 even), it might almost win me over. A diesel makes a fine powerplant-style engine.
I say almost, but not quite. There is still that small amount of real estate for us to quibble over.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:12 am
RamZ
Is it as easy to change a regular diesel vehicle over to a biodiesel as it is for a gas vehicle? I honestly don’t know.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:13 am
This will not always be the case. Work on photovoltaics isn’t standing still either.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:15 am
I think the root has already taken hold. Nov, 2010, you will see the first crop ready for sale!!!!
OK, I promise. No more farm references to the Volt…..
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:15 am
With technology progressing as it is I don’t think it’s unreasonable that in another 10 years solar could be efficent enough and priced at a point where it isn’t out of reach. In my area I’d add a wind turbine as well.
Now… jeff j lost me at EEStor, BUT I see the upcoming sodium/sulfur batteries as a real possibility for home power storage.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Rashiid and Murray – education one idiot at a time (lol) Great jobs! My Volt T-shirts and bumper stickers have started a LOT of discussions.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:18 am
Geez, let it go already. So the guy doesn’t like the Volt. 3 blog posts about this now???
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:23 am
I’ve said it before:
Lyle proves the “One man can make a difference in the world” statement. I hope he’s as proud of his effect as we are of him.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:23 am
“How tragic it is to be Toyota.”
Toyota wants to own the idea of the environmentally friendly automobile; they don’t want customers to think of anyone else. It isn’t a case of shooting down competing technology, it’s in building the existing brand recognition of their solution; so that any development which might compete with Toyo looks like a rip-off (regardless of the facts in any particular case).
So far, with their ‘baby-coated earth’ and ‘cars you plug in’ commercials, they appear to be accomplishing this. Toyota is out there winning hearts and minds, and leaving the bashing to pro-Toyo trolls like you.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:24 am
Correct you are, DonC.
It will take time but we need
better solar collection and better ways of making ethanol from cellulose. Garbage in this country is clearly a renewable source
More hydro electric plants.
We have a huge coast line. Perhaps tidal energy can help.
Wind energy can assist us even if it is not reliable.
For the short term, coal plants are getting cleaner and we have plenty of natural gas. I don’t really want to support fossil fuels, but at least they are ours.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:28 am
Jackson,
Well said. We could also change some of the 17 or so different State formulations of gas, while we’re at it.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:29 am
Muddy,
I didn’t know that. Thanks.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:32 am
lh_newbie,
Very well put and welcome to the forum posters. Warning: It can get to be habit forming.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Very disappointing link. I got bored waiting for something significant. GM is the only OEM that is completely honest about the electric vehilcle; they clearly state their intention to move away from ICE driven vehicles to electric propulsion vehicles. Audi has a market and will try to maintain it. Looks like their website for their electric car lacks information about it; they are probably scrambling to find anything they can to file it. It is so comical! I agree they need a change in leadership. This guy is a clown!
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Excellent interview Lyle.
I have to say Nysschen was also excellent and also has very good points.
Audi has some superb engineering.
Diesel is a good road to be on and prior to my diesel experience I didn’t know just how good they are either. I suspect many, many other American drivers do not have the first hand experience to have a proper opinion….yet.
Today’s Diesels are cleaner than gas engines. They are too quiet to know if it’s a Diesel. I can’t tell you how many times people said “Hey your putting Diesel in there” when I filled my V10 Touareg.
The engine lasts far longer than Gas burners. Is far more efficient and get much better mileage.
We all know as does GM that the well off will be the early adopters. Nothing new here….and the next generations will be affordable. With the rate of new electric entries it looks sooner tan later.
GM is on the right track but still needs a kick in the buttox when they waste time with styling like the Buick plug in that was just a train wreck of style….
Build the Buick Rivera Concept, Converj and pull your head from you know where GM.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:38 am
Lyle, Great Job!
De Nysschen, it’s raining. Switching trees to stand under (gas vs diesel) and you will still get soaked eventually.
On E85 you are only using 15% gasoline. The rest is domestically produced renewable alcohol. We need to be pushing the fact that decreasing GASOLINE use is the goal. My Volt will have synthetic oil in the crankcase as well. (Lyle, that’d be a good question for GM. Are they using synthetic oil and lube?)
There are 7 public E85 stations within 30 miles of my house. Not that I’ll be using any liquid fuel.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:38 am
Sort of with you there….giving this guy too much “pub”
which could very well be the whole adgenda here from the start…if so…job well done (I doubt it though).
at the same time, Lyle gives us so much to talk (read) about …ya cant blame him for going after this story with such vigor…kudos to you again Lyle.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:41 am
The removal of sulfur from diesel fuel is also why it’s now so much more expensive than gasoline. This diesel cleanup was done so that “clean diesels” could be imported to (or created in) NA. The fuel isn’t actually any cleaner when burned in existing diesels, at least that’s my understanding.
So far, I’m not aware that ‘clean diesels’ have been offered for sale here. So, the only meaningful result is that over-the-road truckers now pay more to deliver our goods; passing that cost along to the struggling economy.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:41 am
So, what are we expected to believe? He still seems to indicate that anyone purchasing a Volt would not be doing the right thing for their economic well-being and for the environment. But, of course, if we purchase any Audi vehicle, well, that is a different story. I don’t know if I trust anything he says. I get an oily sensation from this guy. IMO.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:41 am
My problem with so-called clean diesel is there’s no end game that moves us away from fossil fuels. You can’t run a diesel powered vehicle using clean renewable energy, unless algae biodiesel ever hits it’s stride and that’s not a bet I’m willing to take today. Increasingly, I’m not sold on any biofuels, and it’s possible they’re even worse than fossil fuels.
PHEVs and E-REVs lead to EVs. The hugely improved maintenance record for EVs (no exhaust systems, no cooling systems, no ignition systems, improved brake life through regenerative braking) compared to the best of diesels methinks isn’t being considered by diesel aficionados and diesel makers, and there’s more than a small carbon footprint made by the manufacturing process.
EVs might not be a panacea today, but they can get there.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:43 am
RVD:
I dunno, somehow they survive it in Europe. In fact, I heard last week that their economies are recovering faster than ours.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:48 am
I have to agree. This interview is a very impressive “get” on the part of Dr. Dennis, but I really couldn’t care less what Herr Nysschen thinks or says. Next case.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:52 am
There is some early cause for concern where exhaust from Ethanol is concerned (more research needs to be done), but Biodiesel actually burns more cleanly than the petroleum-based product (and without the on board ‘clean diesel’ chemistry set).
I think personal transportation will eventually be all or mostly electric, but big trucks will continue to use some form of liquid fuel for the foreseeable future.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:58 am
Interesting talk about the cost of the batt pack on the total cost of the car in a few posts. Let’s all remember that when considering the cost of the batt pack you MUST consider the cost of the controll power electronics of the BMS and it’s software all in the cost. Just shooting the brezeze of the cost of the cells means nothing because the the cells are worthless without a power BMS and it’s management software as well as the interface to the main computer.
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September 8th, 2009 at 10:58 am
While I don’t particularly like this guy, hasn’t it already been established that the age of the dirty, smelly diesel is gone?
If BMW managed to do it, I’m sure Audi did.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Is it still GM’s policy of adding the cost of a replacement battery to the Volt’s cost? If so, another $8,000 of the $40,000 is for potentially replacing the battery before the warranty expires. I have not heard if GM has dropped this additional battery cost or not.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Tag, the Volt will make retirement so much sweeter!
Besides that, when the price comes down and the Volt is affordable to the masses, it will prove to be a money saver. And make the purchase of solar panels for the house a good investment.
We all need our cars to get to work or where-ever we need to go. So it is a necessity. The question is how much does it cost to own, operate, and maintain it!
The Volt may end up more of an initial expense but over the long haul, it will pay back the owner in multiple ways. We need to think about the cost to each of us by the effects the burning fossil fuels: effect on our environment, to our health; to our economic well-being; to our safety (leads to war); and unnecessary dependence on foreign countries for our daily needs. The money the flows out of this country, estimated at 7 trillion dollars over ten years at the height of gasoline prices in the last year, would enable us to solve most of our domestic problems.
I am one of those retired individuals and surely appreciate your sense of humor on ‘ retirement never “pays you back” ‘ and as you said that incredible freedom it brings is wonderfully incredible ! As long as I can afford it.
Happy trails to you ’til me meet again.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Our government does not have much experience in rewarding companies or individuals. I would not bet on any kind of reward. More likely they would see it as a justification for making the requirements much more stringent. IMO.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Funny, this “Chevy Volt is a car for idiots” story made the best advertisement for the Volt as possible.
At my work, I heard people talking about “Audi president called some GM car a car for idiots; what is so special in that car?”.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:06 am
I agree. Maybe this will enable Lyle to be invited to drive the Audi EV before its release to the public. Never hurts to hope for such an event. It would give us all a better picture of where Audi is headed.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:08 am
LRGVProVolt,
Amen and congrats on your retirement as well. I’m still looking forward to a lot of “firsts” – one of which is buying a new vehicle! I’ve never understood why people complain about having “time on their hands”. It’s one of the best things I’ve ever had on my hands (g).
Be well and enjoy,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Tag,
If you are using properly converted and filtered biodiesel (not raw veggie oil, there is a process to convert it… google or bing it) it requires the removal of the cap on the car and the fuel being poured in.
The diesel engine was INVENTED to run on veggie oil in the first place.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Muddy,
Well THAT’S a conversion that will never catch on – where is the payoff??? (obviously just kidding).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:13 am
They must like the smell of diesel in Europe. He probably gets high on it. Give me a Volt so that I don’t have to smell noxious fumes while i”m stuck in a traffic jam caused by an accident currently caused by an ICE vehicle or driver!
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:13 am
He is out of touch. He just doesn’t get the fact that we don’t need to burn more coal or build more coal plants to power a whole fleet of EVs.
He really cares about the environment? Is that why he produces huge, over-powered vehicles that reek of waste? How condescending could he be? Douche Bag.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:14 am
Jackson,
The Cummins diesel in the new dodge pickups is ‘bluetec’ certified as are the diesels sold in NA from MB, VW, and BMW. They use a urea injection system in the exhaust to clean the output.
As I understand it the system works well.
But at that point we pretty much run out of diesels available here, sad really.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:18 am
Loboc, synthetic oil is still oil, it just has been ‘enhanced’.
It’s good stuff without a doubt, but it’s still oil, make no mistake.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:24 am
That depends on whether or not they can get enough lanthanum to actually make those 18k Priuses.
And then there’s the risk that people won’t be interested in the Prius once they hear about a superior technology that’s actually on the road…
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Sheltonjr,
To my knowledge Bio-Diesel is not made from corn. Ethanol is made from corn destined to be feed grain for farm animals. What is left of the corn product after the ethanol is extracted is still used as animal feedstock. Corn intended for human consumption is a different strain of corn and is not used for ethanol purposes. Farmers increased corn production for ethanol purposes and the amount available for human consumption did not significantly change. Futures trading did have an affect on the price of all corn products. But, my main point is that Bio-Diesel does not come from corn products at this time. Mostly soybeans and cooking grease account for most of the Bio-Diesel production.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:26 am
They could tighten the restrictions for everyone. And the company who already exceeded those standards would be at an instant advantage.
But I really think that converting their entire truck fleet would cost too much.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:29 am
It’s the once bitten twice shy syndrome without a doubt.
Americans got bitten BAD in the 70’s.
And now you have rich ‘rednecks’ with badly ‘hopped up’ pickups choking you. I can see how this perception has come about.
It’s an uphill battle without a doubt.
I need to replace my wife’s Subaru next year and I’d LOVE to keep AWD. An A4 with a small diesel would be very tempting to me. (And about the same expected price as the Volt that I won’t likely be able to get my hands on.) I’m now hearing BMW is NOT planning to bring the 320d (x) to NA. sigh…
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:32 am
Herm
You might have also mentioned that diesel does not age as well as gasoline in cooler climates. Even Bio-Diesel needs an additive to maintain its liquidity during really cold periods. If I were to chose a fuel for long term storage, it would not be diesel. Both gasoline and diesel can be treated to last longer in storage and in cold weather.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:34 am
Exactly my point…the new Diesels do not smell. Gas engines stink by comparison.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:35 am
He is troubled that coal-fired power plants and related efficiency losses eventually release more CO2 than burning diesel
This is a ridiculous claim. First of all, it’s just plain wrong on its face. Yes generating electricity from coal produces significant pollution and CO2. But even in this extreme case, the increased efficiency of an EV drive train means that EVs will “produce half the emissions of gasoline powered automobiles”. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car#Carbon_dioxide_emissions
Moreover, it’s completely and impossibly wrong if you look at the question from an economic standpoint. Here you start from the fact that electricity, unlike gasoline or diesel, cannot be stored. If not used it goes to ground. The second salient fact, which is frequently ignored, is that at most times of the day and for most of the year electrical baseline generation exceeds demand. So most of the time a good bit of the electricity we generate is wasted rather than used.
This means that to the extent that EVs use surplus electricity they do not increase any form of pollution one iota. Charged at night or other times of day when baseline generation exceeds demand, not only are they truly zero emission vehicles from well to wheel, but they impose no other costs on society. In effect the societal costs for powering EVs, until such time as baseline generation has to be increased, is effectively zero, and all the electricity consumed becomes what in economics is called “social surplus”.
From this perspective, until there are tens of millions of EVs on the road, if EVs are charged in an intelligent way then the increase in pollution will be zero or very close to zero. In any case the additional pollution attributable to EVs will be far less than that generated by diesel vehicles.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:37 am
You got that right Captain.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:41 am
MuddyRoverRob
I am one of those that had an Olds Diesel and I hated it. To many reasons to list so I will give just one.IT WAS GUTLESS, you could not spin tires on gravel.
But I would consider diesel now if it could deliver quite a bit more than a gas range extender.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:42 am
LRGVProVolt,
You obviously have not been near a new diesel.
Actually maybe you were, but just didn’t notice… they are very quiet and don’t smell these days.
I spent 5 weeks in Europe a few years back I drove a number of diesels, they were powerful, quiet and frugal on fuel. I’d like one.
Only old cars were at all noisy or smoky.
(Mostly old Benz’s that just wouldn’t die.)
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:45 am
You make some good points, but I would like to make some other points. Ethanol is not as good a fuel as a good quality bio-diesel. Assuming both are produced from renewable products and are food reducing neutral, I vote for bio-diesel. I agree the cost of a diesel engine and the added weight is a negative, but with bio-diesel many of the maintenance problems are not as severe and problematic. Bio-diesel does not lose its power versus regular diesel as does ethanol versus gasoline. Bio-diesel generally equals or betters regular diesel in fuel mileage. Bio-diesel engines run quieter, cooler and cleaner than regular diesel engines. Bio-diesel has so many advantages over regular diesel whereas ethanol only has one clear advantage – it is from renewable sources. The same for bio-diesel (primarily soybeans and cooking grease with algae starting to come into play). These are just some of my thoughts on the subject. But all in all, either is preferred over the original gasoline or regular diesel. If they could solve the loss of power and mileage from ethanol, it would be a different story.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:46 am
Regarding the studies comparing emissions between gas-powered engines and coal fired power plants, perhaps someone here has done a bit of research already that I was about to undertake:
The argument that a shift to electric cars would simply move emissions from the tailpipe to the coal-fired power plant seems like it is missing a huge chunk of information. Are these studies considering the energy it takes to remove oil from the ground, transport it to the refinery, refine, deliver to gas stations around the region, and THEN finally burn in an ICE? Likewise, do the studies consider the effort it takes to mine and transport coal? Or do they only consider the emissions from burning fuel in an ICE vs. burning coal at a power plant?
Even if all a switch to electric vehicles accomplishes is moving the emissions to hundreds of centralized locations instead of millions of mobile locations (which we all know to be untrue), it still is a vital step in resolving an issue.
Thanks!
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:46 am
The problem with CAFE standards is that in the absence of higher gasoline prices they tend to lower the cost of driving. Since the number of miles people drive is not fixed but variable, the miles driven go up as the cost of driving each mile goes down. Hence the savings attributable to CAFE tend to be canceled out by people driving more miles.
Definitely an unintended consequence supporting LauraM’s campaign for a gas tax.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Making a diesel genset that meets clean air standards would probably add another $5K to the price of the Volt. Way too hefty a price to pay for something that won’t be used that frequently.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Where I live ethanol made from brewery waste costs a buck a gallon. Unfortunately there are exactly two ethanol stations in the metro area. That’s two more ethanol stations than hydrogen stations but still not exactly a lot, especially when you think that the DOE is funding the installation of 1000 fast charging stations.
FWIW coal is the worst alternative from an environmental standpoint. This is just from memory, but I believe that a coal plant produces as much radioactive waste as a nuclear plant. Coal is nasty stuff though it does have the benefit of being our nasty stuff.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:56 am
The Saudi Arabian government is one of the most repressive regimes on the planet. They surpress their own citizens. They fund terrorists and spread hatred all over the world. Including Europe. And the higher the price of oil, the more repressive and aggressive they become.
I’m not happy with the Chinese or Bolivian governments. But almost anyone’s better than Saudi Arabia. At least IMHO.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:57 am
— He thinks the business case for an electric car is idiotic because buyers “cannot amortize their incremental fixed investment in the cost of the car to the savings in fuel consumptions.” —
Excuse my rant but AHH i’m sick of hearing this one!
A vehicle’s REAL cost, regardless of its power source, is the cost of the vehicle at purchase, minus the 5 or 10 year (or however many years old you choose to sell at) residual value. Also subtract all usage costs during that time, weather it be cost of electricity or cost of oil changes and fuel.
My weakness is the fact that i haven’t been to the future to see the value of a 3, 4, 5, or however old, Volt; but most of the intelligence that i can muster up within myself says E-REV’s and EV’s will have a more dependable and longer life than ICE cars for so many different reasons, and thus a greater residual value, and thus a lower ACTUAL cost than the tired short sighted statement of “You’ll never make up the cost difference in gas!!!!!!”
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:58 am
It has been my experience in dealing with upper management that they do not eat crow very well.
However, I think Mr. Nysschen shoud have held off on his interview with Lyle for at least a day and brought in or teleconferenced with Audi experts on BEV and E-REV type vehicles. There is no excuse for the president of a major car company to be so ill informed regarding a potential strong competitor.
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September 8th, 2009 at 11:59 am
Why would it cost too much?
The tooling to build the 2-mode variant already exists.
They have already completed the shortbox crewcab model and the Tahoe versions.
All they would have to do in those models is put the Captain Jack interior in and sell them as ‘entry level’ work trucks.
Done.
They DO need to work on the longbox (8 foot bed) variant to be seen as a real work truck, but I can’t imagine there is all that much more engineering to be done there beyond that in the crewcab.
To make this move WOULD take some guts there is no doubt, but as long as they can sell at a profit at $25k the gas saving will sell them as fast as they can make them.
The monthly operating costs of a work truck include the payment AND the fuel costs. Show saving a couple hundred bucks a month on fuel and the trucks will move.
This might just move ME away from my beloved Land Rover as the camper hauler.
And yes give GM a big advantage.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
The interviewer (Lyle) does seem more informed than the interviewee. But De Nysschen did make some interesting points. It still sounds to me that he is downplaying the Volt because Audi’s offerings are lacking in the areas the Volt competes.
Quote: “He claimed the information Audi has is that the range available with these batteries is that if you are in heavy stop and go traffic with max 10 mph speed you could get “a tolerable amount of range.” But he said if you are doing highway driving 30 miles each way, as he does personally, it is his opinion that “he would have to switch to the gas motor long before he gets to work,” and that “even after he gets to work the infrastructure isn’t there to charge the battery.”
So when Audi’s EV is revealed it will be interesting to see what range is claimed based on the KWh size of the batteries and their SOC range.
My understanding of his comment is that on the highway (US not German autobahn) he is implying the range for 8KWh is about 25 miles if not less or about 320Wh per mile or 3.125 miles per KWh.
It will also be interesting to see the price of Audi’s EV– oh yeh, they are just unveiling a concept not an actual product so no price available. How many years behind GM does that make them?
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Nice link Carcus1. The next thread should be a lot of fun!
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
old man,
You definately had the worst example (possibly ever) of the diesel engine.
I once had a horrible hamburger at a fast food place, the lettuce was brown, it was burnt and the bun was hard. But you know, I’ve had really GOOD burgers at other places, it didn’t turn me against all burgers for all time.
The Golf TDI diesel I rented in Paris would ’squeek’ the tires on dry roads in 3 gears… Quiet, lots of go and incredible economy… 650 km over two days on half a tank of diesel.
It completely sold my wife and I on modern diesels
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
You got that right. Next one should be a biggie.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Most stations switch to winter diesel as the weather turns, my local Shell certainly does.
No fuel is really good for long term storage!
But there are stabilizers for both gas and diesel fuels if your useage patterns require it, mine don’t.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Right on.
Canola being the main cooking oil.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
DonC,
A buck a gallon is really cheap hootch! Can you bring your own wooden barrel?
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Only blended synthetic has ‘real’ oil in it. Pure synthetic is made from non-oil stocks.
“Synthetic oil is a lubricant consisting of chemical compounds which are artificially made (synthesized) from compounds other than crude oil (petroleum). ”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_oil
The Germans were making and using synthetic oil, lubes, and fuels during WWII because they could not get petroleum. And now the knuckleheads are touting diesel as the win. Go figure.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
I certainly understand the once bitten twice shy issue.
My turbodiesel powered Volkswagen Jetta TDI had a wonderful engine. I won’t be buying a Volkswagen again — it wasn’t the engine’s fault, it was ZF’s fault for building an unrepairable transmission, and Volkswagen’s fault for using it.
Driving a modern diesel is a very pleasant experience. The engine sounds a little lazy (because it runs at a lower RPM than a gas engine doing a similar job), but it’ll really buckle down and pull. And it does it smoothly and quietly, even it it sounds more ping-ey and less put-ey than a gasoline engine.
In other words, I’d love to buy another diesel car, but it won’t be coming from VAG. It’ll have to be built by Honda, or some other manufacturer with a reputation for boring dependability. But I don’t do much long-distance driving these days, so a hybrid or electric-ish car is a much better match for a large number of short low-speed trips than my diesel.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Don C.
Well put.
We often forget that it is non-peak electricity we are talking about.
If electric vehicles become such a burden on the grid that we need more power plants, we should be so lucky.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Good job Lyle.
I think Johan’s heart is in the right place but he’s a little misguided (and kind of old school). I think he needs to broaden his horizons a bit. Hopefully your 30minute conversation with him helped with that.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
DonC,
You can’t seriously think that it costs GM that much ($5k) more to put a different model engine per unit into a car?
They already have existing euro-certified turbo diesels that ‘could’ be transplanted into the Volt/Ampera chassis without much difficulty. They would likely bolt right up to the generator.
I truly believe the real hold up is the leftover bias against diesels in NA.
I think they WILL land in the car in Gen 2.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Europe has public transportation. They do not drive as much as we do here. In fact, most do not even have a car, or there is exactly one car per family used occasionally. They live in cities, not suburbs. Population density is much higher. They work close to where they live. In short, Europe could survive $8 gasoline because they are essentially immune.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
I agree. I think having electricity be the final mechanism that makes the wheels move is the best approach. Now, how you create that electricity can vary over time, coming from several sources. In the end, when cheap renewably electricity is available, our cars will be ready.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Don C,
You and I are on the same page.
But I didn’t know a coal plant produced radioactive waste.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
That’s gelling, not aging.
Speculation: I’d bet that the summer diesel you’re referring to will be fine — next spring.
Fact: As you probably know, fuel sellers change the formulation of diesel based on the local season in any particular part of the country. So, whenever fall happens for you, they switch over to the cold-weather formulation which gels at a lower temperature, but also delivers slightly worse MPG. This can be kind of a PITA if you’re a TDI-wielding hypermiler who can drive halfway up the east coast on one tank of fuel — you could probably fill up on Charleston, South Carolina diesel where it’s spring, and then drive to Pittsburg PA where it’s still winter… Starting the car the next morning might be challenging.
Then again, my diesel-powered vehicle had an evaporative emissions control system(fact), which probably does a lot to keep fuel from going stale(speculation).
Fact: Also, biodiesel is much more susceptible to gelling than dino-diesel. Some biodiesel mixes can gel as high as 50 degrees F. That’s not a great situation if you’re a purist and want your car to be as vegan as you are. The quality of biodiesel can vary widely, and the Volkswagen TDI engines require a fairly high-quality fuel — so it’s important to get the right stuff for it. I had every intention of running biodiesel in my Jetta, but I could only buy B5, which has less biodiesel in it than conventional gasoline has Ethanol — the constraints on my life at the time just didn’t allow me to do the biodiesel thing right.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Based on battery progress for the last 100 years I would estimate 10% improvement in 10 years. What is troublesome is how easy nowadays to fool people. Most here have little or zero knowledge in math, physics, chemistry. So they read PR stunts and believe, swapping science for SciFi.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Well we had better get to work on immunizing ourselves, because it’s coming. A lot sooner than many of us think, IMHO.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
What is bizarre? The guy said obvious things: it is plain stupid to pay Cadillac price for a Corolla car. Very simple to comprehend IMO.
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September 8th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Yeah, “Any ink is good ink”, LOL. Thanks Johan.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
If people bought cars based upon the “business case”, everybody would drive a Hyundai Rios or a Chevy Aveo, and there would be no Audi. I know that others have said this over and over, but it bears repeating again.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Nonsense. Electricity is not wasted, it is simply not generated. When consumption is low during the night turbines are simply shutdown. Which means less pollution. “Goes to ground”, jeez, when do get this crap from? Did you attend any Physics classes at all?
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Using Mr. Nysschen logic, diesel’s business case in Europe can also be labelled “idiotic” except for government intervention. European countries tax the living daylights out of standard gasoline and have relatively low tax for diesel. This makes it a lot easier to “amortize their incremental fixed investment in the cost of the car to the savings in fuel consumptions.” In general, high fuel cost is the driver that pushes efficiency in Europe. It takes a lot of miles to financially justify a diesel engine in the USA.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
I’m hardly an expert, but it seems to me be that, given current technology, we should use natural gas wherever we can. Not coal. It’s not perfect, but we have the reserves, and it’s a lot cleaner than coal. It’s more expensive than coal, but it’s cheaper than cleaning up coal.
Ideally, we could take care of all of our needs with wind, solar, biofuels, and geothermal. Etc. But we need a bridge fuel in the meantime. And natural gas seems to be the best thing available right now.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
I calculated once energy losses for electricity transport vs oil pipe over thousands of miles. Oil pipe benefits are enormous. Waste is order of magnitude smaller. That is the main reason why oil / natural gas are always transported to the final destination, and only then converted to electricity.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Exactly. We’re working on making clean electricity cheaper and more widespread. And to take full advantage of that, we need electric cars. It’s not like we’re can switch fleets overnight. If we want a significant portion of our fleet to be electric in 20 years, we need to start right now.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Must be…’cause it disappeared!!! Hehe.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Assuming you are right there then the ten year point from now will be about the time where costs and returns will start to make real sense, because it’s getting close now.
As I see it if the ‘low temp’ sodium sulfur batteries hit the ’shelves’ by then they will be a cost effective storage medium. Otherwise Li-ion packs will have dropped a lot more in cost by then.
The combination of a solar ‘base load’ array and a wind turbine the catch extra power when it’s available should support most homes requirements if sized properly.
There IS a payback period without a doubt and although currently that period is still too long for most people to implement a system every price drop makes that time period shorter.
I see it as very possible that my Volt will charge fully off grid by the time I get it. I do have the advantage of being in a fairly windy place so turbines have pretty decent ‘uptime’ here.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
The ‘long tailpipe’ angle being played when they are about to rollout a BEV…
Keep up RVD… It’s a fast room.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
LauraM
Like a lot of the renewables, fossil based natural gas has to be “piped” from the source to the users. This brings up the same issues as with solar and wind farms, doesn’t it?
Just wondering.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Hello.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
It’s not just about MONEY. It’s about a fun to drive, silent, instant torque, no gas using, energy independent, screw the oil companies, slap in the face to greed!
Oh yeah…and good for the environment. The coal burning logic is entirely faulty. The ENTIRE northwestern US uses 95% hydroelectric power for the utilities. That equals ZERO emissions. The rest of the US utility grid will only get cleaner.
Some people can’t see a great thing when it slaps them in the face…
What a moron.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
The Corolla is an E-REV? If not then the Volt has more value in common with the Cadillac.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Absolutely!
Hence why even though Johan comes across as a bit of a tool I’d be interested in an A4 with a 2.0 diesel and quattro.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
I can’t seem to post anything today. Moderation. Hmmm … What am I doing wrong? My links or what?
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Read this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Load_following_power_plant
It depends on the type of power plant.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
I stand corrected.
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September 8th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
LauraM
The really exciting point (to me) is that this plugin movement has been building for years, and is now only a matter of months away! We’ll see SO many companies providing SO many options, it just makes me giggle. That reminds me, I still miss statik (g).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
RVD,
The parallel with Europe falls apart when you consider the distances traveled here in the USA. We have pockets of population that is just as dense, but hundreds of miles between them.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Muddy,
In a very left handed way the impending increase in the cost of electricity here in PA will actually shorten the time it’ll take to recoup the cost of installing panels. No appreciable wind available on my site, so solar is pretty much “it”. Technically, I’m over the Marcellus gas deposit, but I doubt that my neighbors would approve of the drilling. Solar I think they could live with.
RVD (above) talks like battery progress has been linear when it’s becoming exponential.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Muddy,
LOL, the whole place seems well-tuned today – except for a few sour notes. Rashiid is particularly sharp, as you mentioned.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Yeah, what link? I scrolled back up until I’m getting a headache, and I can’t find it. Can you post it again? My curiosity is killing me, LOL.
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Maybe the Audi satellite is jamming your transmissions.
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
You get my vote for the most generous comment of the day.
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Loboc,
Where in the country are you that you have so much E85 available??? You’re really blessed. 15% gas and 85% renewable, only straight electrons are better. I know it effects the range a bit, but you’ll go a LONG way on a Volt tank of E85 and use 15% the gas. Wow.
Congrats,
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
I’m probably not the right person to answer this, but solar and wind farms don’t use pipes. Oil and natural gas do. But I don’t think we would need to build new pipes for new powerplants. I believe the infrastructure is largely already in place. We’d probably need to build new plants and a few extra pipes, but I don’t think it would require a major new investment. I haven’t heard anything about it either way, so I’m assuming if it did need a major new investment, I would have heard.
As far as I understand it, natural gas has three major advantages over solar and wind. First, it’s much cheaper given current technologies. Second, you can burn it anytime you want–so you don’t have the storage problems you currently have with solar and wind. Third, you can build the plant wherever you want, so you don’t have to transmit the energy over long distances.
Of course, all of the above issues will hopefully be mitigated and even eliminated as the technology progress. But, I believe that, right, now natural gas is our best solution.
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
LauraM
I know electrons don’t need actual PIPES, that’s why the word was in quotes. The power lines from solar and wind farms are their “pipes” that need to traverse significant distances – just as natural gas does. I’m with you though on the hope that technology will step up with some solutions.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
It is just about money, when its out of your price range. Unfortunately price is the #1 factor in a car purchase, everything else is secondary.
If you have $10 in your pocket and something costs $20, all the features in the world don’t matter.
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
It’s definitely exciting. It gives me hope for the future, and not too many things do that.
I miss statik too. He could explain whatever’s going on with Opel, which IMHO makes a big difference one way or the other to GM’s future.
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September 8th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Presumably it would cost GM more in production costs than they can currently pass onto the cosumer. Yes. Mass production brings costs down, but I doubt it brings them down enough or I’m sure they would have done it already. But, to be fair, I don’t know the numbers.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Ditto here bro…
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Aloha!
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
oh oh…..
mee too, I wanna see!!
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Oh…I didn’t get the connection. sorry….Like I said above, I think it’s much less of an issue for natural gas than it is for solar and wind. You don’t have to pipe natural gas. It’s just more efficeint. You can transport it by truck if you want to.
There was an interesting article on the coal vs. natural gas issue in the New York Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/07/business/07gas.html?scp=2&sq=natural%20gas&st=cse
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Biz case? Buying a car is a guranteed depreciation/loss when you drive it off the lot. This is the biz of the consumer losing money on the product. You’ll never gain from it unless it’s a collectors item that you’ll never drive. But once you drive it, it’all down hill from there……
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Hey Tag at 2:45pm.
Electrons don’t actually travel very far at all. What happens is that incoming electrons to a wire, for instance, essentially kick electrons out the other end of it so to speak.
Just like that desktop amusing ball bearing dynamic swing, where the ball bearings are there to transmit the swinging force from one end ball bearing to the other end ball bearing with all the ones in the center not moving very much at all. (Although I remember reading that electrons actually might travel something like an inch per year around the valence bands of the conductor’s atoms/molecules).
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
It’s possible that they simply haven’t thought of this, but also likely costs are an issue.
Still, I think that if they put their minds and resources to it they could achive this.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Muddy
I think there are two reasons GM does not convert all the truck fleet to 2-mode. One is the extra cost the buyer has to be willing to spend to gain 25% fuel savings or there about. Secondly the competitor to the truck line is Ford’s lineup primarily with some competition being from Dodge. The cost disadvantage versus Ford and Dodge (not even counting Toyota, Nissan and Honda) would give the others an unfair price advantage at this time. If GM can get the cost of the 2-mode down by 50% or close to it and get the fuel savings up to 35 – 40% they may, MAY have a shot at convincing buyers to purchase a Chevrolet or GMC truck over a Ford, Dodge, Toyota, Nissan or Honda. It is tough enough now to pick up a sale against the competition as it is. Add a few thousand more in cost and you can just about forget the sale.
I really hope GM can do something to get a clear advantage over the competition. Two ways to do that is the same as it has always been. Build better and less expensive vehicles that offer the buyer what they need over what the competition does. Adding more cost is going the wrong way without some real justifications for the increase.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Moderation…you know how that is.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Howdy!
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
This is a tough issue to measure in any form of metrics. To calculate the emmisions of a coal power plant is easy. To calculate a million ICE cars is another problem. This is a moving target. How many ICE cars out ther even meet the SMOG requirements? How many are ULEV/LEV? Did they re-tune their ride bakc to the non CARB approved tweaks in their car for street dragging after passing SMOG tests? Too many uncontrolled variables.
In a nutshell, a well tuned/burning coal plant should emmit less than 1 million ICE cars.
I’m too dumb/drunk to do the math.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
But I don’t drink to a moderation……
Just in excexxsss.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
That’s the “Hole” theory/principle.
Typically described in semiconductores for electron flow.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Google f!$ker k@rmas fuel mile@ge
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
There is a difference in transporting NG and electrons. More than 30 percent of electricity is LOST during transmission via wires + transformers. Much less NG is lost during transmission via PIPE. The U.S. has massive gas pipelines that cover the entire nation since at least the 1970s. The biggest problem with Wind is nobody wants it in their back yard so they build them far away from city limits and therefore have to spend millions on new transmission wires.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Hey Doofus, many cars actually appreciate over time. Your math skills are questionable. Some antiques are worth a fortune and still run. Check eBay, plenty of appreciated cars.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
no one knows..
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Lemme elaborate a little more…
Take a tube big enough to put 15 tennis balls in it.
Now pretend the tube is a copper conductor and the balls are electrons. Insert all the balls into the tube till it’s full end to end. Now just sitting there, there is no current flow. When you need current to flow or need electrons to flow insert another tennis ball in and from the other end one will pop out, that’s current flow in general. So in principle, the current put in from the starting point is really not the one that came out, but for all intents and purposes it’s the current/electron you needed to get flowing.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
The Volt and Solar are very expensive technology today. Neither can be justified strickly on a cost basis. Most people buying the Volt will be more about Image and not substance. You will see.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
How’s your *****?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U65_0TlycIw&feature=related
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
LauraM and others,
I agree natural gas is a good fuel for power plants and the distribution network is there or is readily adaptable to being so. Solar and wind power are good choices but the distribution lines are not in place to get the power from the “plants” to where it can be distributed. Getting those distribution lines require purchasing “rights of way” over some hotly contested areas. Resistance comes not only from the environmental groups not wanting power lines crossing “sensitive” lands but also from land and home owners who don’t want the distribution lines in their back yards. Solar and wind may have a better chance if we can develop local generation stations serving suburban neighborhoods and supplement them with home installed solar and wind generators. If you do this you eliminate the “cross country” power lines. The neighborhood lines could all be under ground and link up to existing power lines and sub-stations found all around modern towns and cities.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
This guy is not so stupid after all. I think everybody was just having a typical knee-jerk reaction.
/
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
When you ALREADY sell 18K of the world’s most fuel efficient cars per month and no one else comes close, you DO own the idea of the environmentally friendly automobile.
It has nothing to do with “pro-Toyo trolls,” it has to do with the current reality of the marketplace.
Toyota took a huge risk, one that GM declined to pursue and even scoffed at even as that risk was paying off, and has built a highly fuel-efficient and modestly profitable automobile. That’s quite a feat. People, reasonably enough, admire Toyota for this.
GM has two types of hybrids on the market, now, and both are miserable failures. GM’s management is so talented that GM went bankrupt. GM’s history isn’t a help, it’s a hindrance. And it’s a reason to be skeptical of their chances in making money on the Volt.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Doofus filter activated.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
reported.
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
is the Volt going to need lanthanum? And Wiki suggests that Lanthanum isn’t difficult to obtain (did you mean to refer to a different rare earth?).
As for the future, we’ll see. However, I wouldn’t bet on a horse that had a record of straight losses against the same field. Would you?
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
I don’t have one of those dektop ball kenetic transfer thingy. I have one of these…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqzVwuNKPmc
Carcus1 sent it to me. He said it needed some WD40 or some DuraLube or somethin.
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!!!!!!
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
a coal burning plant produces 100 times more radiation than an equivalent nuclear plant.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste
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September 8th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Electrical theory demonstration?
Tennis ball launcher
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyy6zDRToRw&feature=related
related: guy I used to work with had a story about as a youngster he built a tennis ball cannon (butane fueled) and tried it out on his brother from across the street. Knocked his bro on his a$$ and left a permanent burning tennis ball impression on his bro’s white t-shirt.
That, I would like to have seen.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
electricity lost during long distance transmission is at most 7%, and that can be improved.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
I completely agree with you, LauraM. Saudi Arabia also funds Islamic schools all over the U.S., Europe and many other areas of the world that are teaching hate. Their one goal is to slowly immigrate Muslim people into other countries and advance the teaching and training of Islamic groups to spread the religion. Once the population density of Muslims reaches a critical stage, they will effectively be able to control that countries’ response to world activities. Eventual control of the government apparatus follows as the society is overwhelmed with strife and religious fervor. It is a policy of “rot from within” and can be seen working very well in modern day Europe. The same process is at work in the U.S.. Just not at the same levels as Europe at this time. But the process has been started and is increasing each year as more schools open and the student population matures and goes out to the “mainstream”. The only thing that might defeat them in the U.S. is that our society has a corrupting influence on young people today and it may not be possible to completely turn young Muslims into the kind of society killers the Saudis are aiming for.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
If you lube it up, please don’t send it back.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
It “costs too much” because the NiMH traction battery for such a large vehicle is, necessarily, large. Then, the two-mode transmission is extremely complex. Even in mass quantity, it’s still a beast to put together (cost estimate for the transmission runs $10K per). Increases in volume probably wouldn’t take more than 10% off that.
GM would end up with a truck fleet that cost 20% more than Ford’s fleet. Even with improved fuel economy, that would be a tough sell.
To improve the fuel economy of their fleet cost-effectively, win buyers and MAKE MONEY, GM should leverage the tech that they DO have that is cost-effective; VCM. Ford and Dodge don’t have it. GM’s VCM is particularly appropriate for their large vehicles. It would very likely give them a 2mpg bump across the line in highway and maybe even city fuel economy (the deep, dark secret of the two-mode hybrids is that much of the highway improvement is down to the engine).
Then, there’s aerodynamics. GM doesn’t improve them much because they think that “tough looking” trucks with lousy fuel economy sell better than trucks with good fuel economy and aerodynamic looks.
Has anyone looked at the new Terrain? They used all their “big tough truck” design cues in that thing and the result is pretty bad, the size of the vehicle can’t support those styling details. But GM’s sure that’s what they buyers want.
And, maybe they’re right. Fuel prices aren’t high enough (for long enough) to really change buying behavior. And when they do go high enough, long enough, it then takes GM (or Ford or whomever) three years to adapt. UNLESS they get out in front and take a risk.
As happened with the Prius.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
http://compare.autodata.gm.ca/compare/frameset.asp?comps=CAB90DOT11CB0&comps=CAB90FOT11GC0&comps=CAB90CHT278A0&YearComp=B90&BrandComp=CH&SuperMakeIDComp=Silverado&MakeIDComp=10345&ModelIDComp=CAB90CHT278A0&compVeh1=CAB90DOT11CB0&compVeh2=CAB90FOT11GC0&compVeh3=CAB90CHT278A0&Year=B90&BrandID=CH&MakeID=10740&SuperMakeID=Silverado+1500+Hybrid&BaseAcode=CAB90CHT362A0&Lang=en&ModelID=&Internal=N&adv=&dealer=&ds=&dc=&includeGMNavs=True&DeleteAcode=&Type=&returnToUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gm.ca%2Fgm%2Fenglish%2Fvehicles%2Fchevrolet%2F
Sorry for the brutally big link.
(if you can’t see it here are the highlights)
The Hybrid Silverado gets 10.5 litres/100km.
The regular Silverado gets 15.4 litres/100km
Ford F150 15.7 litres/100km
Dodge Ram 16.2 litres/100km
I’d say that’s pretty significant. I didn’t run it through a calulator, but 15.4 – 10.5 leaves a 4.9litre/100km improvement, right?
That’s enough to run a small car!
So the hybrid uses 2/3 as much fuel as the standard trucks and can still haul the load.
I ask WHY NOT?
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Oh OK. I think it’s on deck. I got modded on the post also.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
removing the sulfur from diesel fuel did make the cost go up, mostly due to scarcity rather than technical reasons. It also reduced the available energy of the fuel.. previous diesel users experienced a drop in mileage.
Sulfur destroys the catalytic converters used in the new “clean diesel” engines.. thus it had to be removed before diesel cars were again allowed to be sold in the US.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Ha!
Lyle, you should have called him on Audi’s LED headlamps for ~$7000 bucks on the upcoming R8! Talk about the early adopters paying for the technology! Not to mention not being able to amortize the costs of your purchase through fuel savings.
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/05/30/audi-r8-gets-first-full-led-headlamps/
Frankly, I think $40k for a whole electric car stands up pretty well against $7k for just the HEADLAMPS!
(Still, LED headlamps?! How cool is that! I want some… after the price comes down a bit.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Hmmm….
Butane you said?
Sounds like a fun science project for my son and I. Just gotta send the wife to getter nails did for a while and we’ll try it…..lol.
Try taping/gluing a bottle of Diet Coke to a skateboard and drill a 1/8 inch hole in the lid/cap and do the Mento’s thing……lol.
But do it in an emty parking lot. I’ll video tape it next time.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Doofus Alert:
Eurotrash diesels cannot pass American emissions and safety standards. You are hereby issued an official Dumbass Award Of The Day.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
The Chinese are going to regulate the export of Neodymium and Lanthanum. This only effects Toyota with their permanent magnet DC motor technology (neodymium) and Ni-Mh batteries (lanthanum), The Volt uses AC motors with little or no neodymium needs, and Li-Ion batteries with little need for Lanthanum.
But Toyota can just re-design its Prius and all other of fits hybrids Technology,to new AC motors and power electronics and convert to better Li-Ion batteries, So in the long run it won’t matter much, But Toyota has an unplanned expenditure for redesign to make. The longest and most costly of which would be the redesign of the power electronics modules. But that is not impossible to do.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Now Dan… don’t be confusing things with little details like facts…
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
It’s Only about the money.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
I think it’s more about land requirements than about no one wanting it in their backyard. Yes–there’s definitely a not-in-my-backyard element here. But the major problem, IMHO, is that a solar plant and or a wind generator is going to require a lot more land space than a natural gas or coal plant. And land is expensive. Especially land in cities.
Hopefully, that’s another problem that technology can fix.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
Ray of sunshine? No. I’m trying very hard to see the world as it is, rather than as I’d like it to be. And some days, it’s dark and rainy, not sunny at all.
Lutz should be fired. I don’t know why more regulars on this site don’t agree.
It was reported on this very site that Lutz batted the Volt idea around with Lauckner for a very short time and then winged the cost estimate and came up at least $15K short. He also failed to recognize many of the technical challenges. However, GM is a top-down organization, so what the Vice-Chair wants, the Vice-Chair gets… whether it makes sense or no.
The Prius, by way of contrast, came about because Toyota’s top execs challenged the engineering team to FIND A WAY. And gave them some stretch goals and stepped back and let the engineering team figure out how to meet the goals, while the top execs kept their mouths shut about what was being planned.
The result was a radically different and very fuel efficient car available for a relatively reasonable price… a marketing win, with no black eye because they had to back-pedal on cost and/or availability. The modest tax credit, when applied, brought the cost of the car down very close to a base Camry or a well-equipped Corolla, unlike the Volt situation where an obscene tax credit brings the cost of the car down to much more than a Camry XLE or twice the price of a decently equipped Corolla.
The two-mode fiasco is very similar to the Volt program. GM’s top brass made a decision that engineering couldn’t resolve at a reasonable price and ended up pitching a $51/55K vehicle (RWD/AWD pricing) to people who couldn’t care less about fuel economy and who, if they did decide they cared, could easily respond by buying something smaller and cheaper than a base GMT-900 and saving money two ways. Top-down decision-making with Lutz again at the wheel.
BAS was a similar fiasco. Top-down development led to a vehicle with a high option price but almost no detectable fuel savings.
With one of these failing decisions already languishing on the market and the other close to market release and disaster, but having learned nothing from either process, Lutz went through the same top-down, “my way or the highway” product development cycle with the Volt.
Now, the one thing that Lutz has done differently is to limit the Volt numbers so severely that the gizmo will, in all likelikhood, “sell out.” He has finally realized he can’t take this thing up against the Prius and he’s not going to try; he’s sticking with 10K in 2011 so as to save face.
But 10K… for “the world’s largest automaker?” These are boutique numbers more suited to a Tesla/Lotus production arrangement. Who’s going to be impressed that GM can “compete successfully” against Silicon Valley neophytes without any real plant? Not me!
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
I’ve said it before, so I’ll bore you all again (as I always must whenever anyone invokes Sodium/Sulfur batteries
).
Enough battery volume, strategically placed, can revolutionize the power grid even if overall generating capacity is never increased. The volume of battery storage required for the revolution would seem improbable at the moment, but Sodium Sulfur has the potential to ramp up in ways that Lithium Ion does not.
Instead of using expensive “peak power” generation, off-peak power could be delivered to local batteries during the night to carry the higher loads during the day. This move could get most oil-powered plants off the grid by itself.
It requires less new power-carrying capacity as well, since the lines could be sized for constant power levels, not the greatest peak level it would have to sustain. Our current high-tension line infrastructure could go twice as far into the future without being enlarged.
This requires not only ‘house’ batteries, but sub-station batteries, city-center repository batteries, batteries at generation sites, businesses and more.
It would turn the whole grid into a kind of “Volt.”
It would also be made to order for inconstant but green sources of energy such as wind turbines.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
______________________________________________________
From Lyle’s Article:
…he [Johan de Nysschen’s] thinks the business case for an electric car is idiotic…
——————
Someone please help me out here…
Did I read Lyle’s blog article correctly? ….
That according to Mr. de Nysschen (the President of Audi), Audi is at the upcoming Frankfurt show (with anticipated fanfare that Mr. de Nysschen does not want to remove) going to announce Audi’s own version of the Electric Car which Mr. de Nysschen has in advanced of the show declared represents an “idiotic business case” ?______________________________________________________
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
The cost can be as much as 1/2. Perhaps 1/3 for the original battery ands packaging and a balance to estimate the cost for a second warranty battery that may be needed to get 150,000 miles for the CARB regulation.
That extra cost could go away tomorrow if CARBite idiots treated the EREV battery like they treat the batteries in BEVs, like the Tesla or Leaf and removed the 150,000 mile life requirement. They impose no life requirement for BEV type batteries,and if you have one regulation of life expectancy you should do the same for BEVs.
So if you wanted to cut the price by $8000 to $12,000 dollars tomorrow, simply abolish that CARB regulation, or reduce its length, to whatever is a practical life expectancy of a Li-Ion battery, say 125,000 miles. or 10 years driving.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
250,000 Volts sold ? That was a good one, i almost busted my gut. Now that I had more time to think about it, that is just not a realistic number. You may be psychotic. See help immediately. Volt fever leads to pig flu. Be careful.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Jackson,
Never boring to hear about new technology! Is there a good site that has reliable info on this form of storage? I’d like to study up.
Thanks in advance,
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
From the article: “(de Nysshen) says this issue is his main point, whether this government expense is “the best way to clean up the environment,” and that there might be a better way to apply those tax credits to incentivize the utility companies to clean up the power stations.”
Too true. From a public policy perspective, supporting 10K Volts, which will reduce CO2 emissions (vs a Prius) by perhaps 10-15% per year, is a pointless and wasteful exercise.
$7500 tax credits applied to homes to improve insulation or install solar heat/hot water could be used to start driving down use of natural gas, coal-fired electricity or home heating oil in the near term.
And those $7500 tax credits, when used to retrofit old homes or boost the energy efficiency of new ones, are more nearly permanent; lasting the life of a house, vs the life of a car. How many homes built in the 60’s are still standing (like mine)? Almost all of them! How many cars from the 1960s are still on the road today? Almost none of them!
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Major Doofus Alert:
Gas will never be above $4 during the Volt’s lifetime. Get a grip and then get a clue.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
every modern car spends a lot of money on the software, but the Volt has a lot of unique parts that are expensive all by themselves:
1. battery is $12k
2. battery warranty ??
3. the transaxle unit with the differential, the traction motor and the generator , plus the two inverters, lets say about $5k
4. the cost of the money for all these extra bits.. lets say 20%
total is $20k not even including battery warranty.
The Volt is based on a Cruze, and that car will sell for about $18k similarly equipped but missing the transmission and starter.. lets say that will reduce the cost about $2k
Thus the total cost so far is $20k + $16k = $36k
and we are not including the cost of the battery warranty. I guess this extra $20k should drop in half in the coming years with mass production and tech improvements.
BTW I have no idea what the cost of money for the auto industry is, I’m guessing low at 20% but perhaps an expert could chime in.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
He may well outlast Obama.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
They eventually will do so.
Probably when the second generation of the dual mode hybrid drive starts appearing, post 2011. Most of these BoF SUVS are going stretched Lambda CUVs, and the reduced weight, combined with the second generation, cheaper dual mode hybrid, and HCCI operation for the ICE, will combine to push the mileages up into the mid-high 20s or low 30s.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Your a complete idiot. There is not one single Tesla owner complaining about Range Anxiety. This is a problem that you and your ilk are perpetrating to push your agenda. I am sure you pointed out that the Volt will be the biggest polluting EV in history. I thought so. You have the pungent odor of GM sheep.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
RVD is correct, electricity is never wasted.. there are no gigantic banks of resistors glowing red when people across the US shut off their TV after the Tonight Show ends.
Keeping the electricity supply stable as the demand changes is no easy task, and many expensive measures are used to stabilize the power grid.. that is why you dont want more than 20% of your power being generated by wind, it is too intermittent.
Hydro and natural gas turbines can react quickly, nuclear and coal plants are very slow to react.. those last two are run at 100% 24 hours a day.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
I am sure you enjoyed “nailing him”. Next time try and keep your pornographic activity to yourself.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Hmmm …. I wonder what Johan thinks about the success of the 2010 Toyota Prius so far? Is he against “power split hybrids” (like the Prius) that get 48-50 mpg? Along with upcoming “series hybrids” (like the Volt) that get 100+ mpg?
I suspect he’s just concerned about the electrification of the automobile IN GENERAL. Why? Because Audi invested a lot of money their “clean diesel” technology. Simple as that. He’s HARDLY concerned about GM failing with the Volt. He just wants auto enthusiasts like us to look at HIS company’s products. It sure looks like he’s concerned about his clean diesel technology vs. the latest and greatest hybrids and upcoming ER-EV vehicles.
Johan shouldn’t feel TOO bad about “clean diesel”. If they make the clean diesel engines efficient enough and small enough, MAYBE they could still be used in some future ER-EVs as range extenders … like the BMW “Vision” concept car.
It’ll be just another “range extender” engine though. It will have to compete against other ER-EV range extenders like the new one that Lotus is developing. Lotus’ range extender will run on regular gasoline, E85, or methanol … algae bio-gasoline too.
Another glaring issue is the price of diesel in America. Why buy a clean diesel car when you could just buy a 48-50 mpg Toyota Prius and use gasoline that’s the same or cheaper than diesel fuel? Johan should be much more concerned about Toyota in 2009 than the Chevy Volt in 2011.
The Volt probably won’t sell but maybe 40,000 in 2011 (who knows, it could be more). By the way, 40,000 Volts in 2011 will HARDLY have much of an impact on America’s grid in 2011. It would be like plugging in 40,000 new plasma TVs or dryers in people’s homes. No big deal.
If he hasn’t already done so, Johan should read the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) / Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) report that Lyle mentions. He probably HAS read it but he doesn’t want to acknowledge it. Because he wants everyone to like his company’s “clean diesel” technology of course.
ER-EVs shouldn’t be much of a concern for the electric utility companies until well into the next decade … 2018 or so … and only in ISOLATED localities like say Silicon Valley, CA where electric cars will probably be popular.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
Diesels are still too Loud and they Smell (not as bad as GM Sheep). I drove the new Blue Tech Mercedes and it confirmed these beliefs.
AVOID DIESELS AT ALL COSTS.
Diesel is more expensive than gasoline in the USA. The only reason is cheaper than gas in Europa is because those countries add huge taxes to the gasoline. Diesels are not suitable for family transportation. Period. End of Sentence.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
a lot is dependent on the average speed.. in stop and go city driving you will not go very fast, thus your range will be high.. on the highway we suspect many drivers will get about 32 miles of range based on the average speed most people drive. Curiously you will get better range with a traffic jam on the highway also.
GM has stated (several times) that the Volt will have 40 miles range on the highway, using the EPA Hwy Cycle.. but note that the average speed on that cycle is 48mph.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
The problem with Volt will be near zero residual value. Let me explain why.
1. There are people here who believe that battery technology is improving exponentially, like computers. What is the residual value of your 5y old PC? Zilch, actually, it is negative, because you have to pay to discard it.
2. More realistically, battery tech is linear. Lets neglect it. More essential is battery capacity loss. How much of it will be left in 5-10 years? Laptop batteries lose 50% in 1-2 years easily. Lets say Volt battery is much better. But how much? Look at capacity: GM puts in 16kWh out of which only 50% will be available during the lifetime. Why? Because there is warranty issue. If warranty is 10years, that means battery should have 50% of capacity. In other words, battery will be useless in 10 years and its cost is 50% of total vehicle cost. And I think you end up paying a significant disposal fee.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Hmmm …. I wonder what Johan thinks about the the 2010 Toyota Prius so far? Is he against “power split hybrids” (like the Prius) that get 48-50 mpg? Along with upcoming “series hybrids” (like the Volt) that get 100+ mpg?
I suspect he’s just concerned about the electrification of the automobile IN GENERAL. Why? Because Audi invested a lot of money their “clean diesel” technology. Simple as that. He’s HARDLY concerned about GM failing with the Volt. He just wants auto enthusiasts like us to look at HIS company’s products. It’s obvious that he’s HIGHLY concerned about his clean diesel technology vs. the latest and greatest hybrids and upcoming ER-EV vehicles.
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September 8th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Right on Bro.