Comments on: Forecasters Predict EV Demand Will be Less Than Automakers Expect

By: Geronimo

Geronimo — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 23:50:37 +0000

Famed forecaster JD Power – yeah right, didn’t this famed forecaster tell Detroit that building huge SUV’s was the way to make money in the 21st century ?

When auto forecasters start acknowledging Peak Oil, I’ll take them more seriously. Until then, they are just another mediocre business-as-usual whoops-the-economy-just-crashed business organization that got blindsided by reality already.

By: Bob

Bob — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 11:00:16 +0000

Wait a minute… isn’t there a colossal math error here? If 2.9 million cars is 0.5% of the global market, that means the global market is 580 million cars. 2.9 / 0.005 = 580. So if the global market is 580 million cars then 10 million cars is 1.7% of the market, not 12.5% as the article says. 10 / 580 = 0.0172413. If this is true, then them claiming that the actual market share is one twenty-fifth of the expected market share is pure bullhonkey.

By: Rooster

Rooster — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 03:28:09 +0000

Considered it yes, but I will not purchase a pure EV until they have a 300 mile range and recharging is as convenient as pulling into a gas station (5 minutes, good for another 300 miles). I have parents in MO (900 miles) and in-laws in GA (700 miles), and they like to see their grandchildren. I do not want to have to rent a car every time I need to go see them. A vehicle with a 40-mile EV range will eliminate >70% of my gasoline use…that is a good start.

My next commuter car will be a Volt; I am going to trade in my 06 Honda Civic for one – only has 32000 miles on it. My next family car is undecided, I currently own a 05 Acura MDX that I will replace in 2011. I was considering a Toyota Highlander Hybrid…but maybe I will wait for PHEV version of the Orlando…or perhaps GM will offer a 2-mode version of the Buick Enclave.

By: Don

Don — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 21:39:22 +0000

“Does anyone doubt that gas will not continue to go up?.. does anyone doubt the cost of batteries will go down and quality will improve?’”

I think gas will go up but batteries will not come down dramatically. You can get Thundersky LiFePO4s for about $340/KWH now. I think we may get down to $300/KWH but that is about it with my guesswork. That is still pretty expensive but will be cheaper than today.

By: Eat This Pie

Eat This Pie — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 21:37:09 +0000

“quoting Mao’s little red book…” No, I think you’re about 2,600 years off:

http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/24004.html

“Quotation #24004 from Classic Quotes:

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
Lao-tzu, The Way of Lao-tzu
Chinese philosopher (604 BC – 531 BC)

Notes about this Quotation

* Although this is the popular form of this quotation, a more correct translation from the original Chinese would be “The journey of a thousand miles begins beneath one’s feet.” Rather than emphasizing the first step, Lau Tzu regarded action as something that arises naturally from stillness. Another potential phrasing would be “Even the longest journey must begin where you stand.” [note by Michael Moncur, September 01, 2004]“