Here we eagerly await the arrival of the Chevy Volt and the ability to drive without gasoline. As well, nearly all the major automakers are placing their bets on electrified vehicles of several varieties. Very soon, Nissan will unveil it’s mainstream EV that it hopes to sell 50,000 of globally in its first year of production, and 100,000 per year in the US by 2012. President Obama has called for 1 million plugin cars on US roads by 2015, and Nissan predicts 10% of its sales will be electric cars by 2020.
Yet in spite of these ambitious expectations and our hopes for a world without oil, automotive forecasters are taking a more conservative view.
CSM Worldwide predicts that instead of the 10 million global EVs Nissan predicts by 2016, there will only be 2.9 million electrics and hybrids combined, with only 400,000 them being pure electric cars by that year. This amounts to a paltry 0.5 percent share of the global market.
Famed forecaster JD Power concurs with that 0.5% prediction.
“10 million pure electric vehicles annually from 2016 would equate to approximately 12.5 percent of the global market, compared with our forecast of 0.5 percent (including plug-ins),” said Andrew Fulbrook, Senior Manager, European Powertrain Forecasts at CSM Worldwide.
Part of the issue is despite the automakers’ hype, forecasters suspect 100 mile range EVs won’t wind up being very popular, especially in America.
“None of these battery vehicles offer a realistic range. The claim is often for 100 miles, but you’ll get less on a cold day if you need the heater on, or the air conditioning in the summer. For these reasons, we have a very conservative forecast,” said Al Bedwell, senior manager of J.D. Power automotive forecasting.
However, by 2020 he predicts battery technology and fast charging infrastructure will have advanced enough to allow electric cars to begin to prevail.
“(The forecast) accelerates towards the end of the decade when batteries will improve and get cheaper — we forecast 700,000 by 2020 in Western Europe, including hybrid electric range extender and battery electric. By 2020, electric vehicles will beat plug-ins and hybrids,” he says.
Even by then he still predicts gas cars will be far more predominant. “Despite all the battery electric cars and range extenders and hybrids, this will still only make up about 15 percent of the market by 2020,” says Bedwell.
Eventually the combustion engine will begin to ride off in the sunset though not until the late 2030s.
“If I was forced to put a decade on it, I doubt it will be until perhaps the late 2030s that we’ll see the first signs of the internal combustion engine in its current form going away, but then we didn’t get rid of the horse when steam came along, we just changed its use somewhat,” said Fulbrook.
Source (Detroit News)
This entry was posted on Saturday, August 1st, 2009 at 7:49 am and is filed under Marketing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (7:55 am)I do think it’ll take a long time but, a journey of a thousand miles …..
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:07 am)EXACTLY! The transition to battery electric vehicles (BEV’s) and plug-in fuel cell vehicles (PFCV’s) will take decades. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will penetrate the markets first and that will take several years. Once buyers get comfortable with electric propulsion, and automakers learn how to design light / affordable / performance vehicles, then those configurations will take off.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:22 am)This is why I’ve been saying that GM needs to start advertising heavily.
The Volt’s ad campaign will be the maker or breaker for it.
The ad campaign must be informative while at the same time appealing to that trait we Americans have for things that are new and leading edge hi tech.
I mean, when you come right down to it, the only real advertising the Volt has had is gm-volt.com and the more recent official GM Volt site.
Advertising works…its as plain & simple as that.
=D~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:31 am)How about the government puts a heavy tax on gas to fix the price at around $4 a gallon or higher to encourage the american population to migrate a little quicker. Use that money to fund research into battery tech or improve some of the failing infrastructure we have today.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:31 am)If the batteries are still high priced by then, the gasoline will have to be at least $4.00 a gallon or more for electric cars to become a hit. But, if only the cost of batteries comes down, say by half, then it may stand a chance of becoming a hit. Let’s hope battery technology get’s better and cheaper.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:36 am)I’m sure that whoever is making these “predictions” feels that they are based on facts. But if we have learned anything during the past few years, it is that nobody can predict the future.
I believe it will take time to transition to electric drive…but I also believe that with the wealth of offerings to suit most people’s needs, the transition may happen faster than we could ever imagine.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:42 am)Chaim,
From your lips to God’s ear.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (8:46 am)garrytman,
A tax like this (I think) would A) hurt the economy in general and B) hurt the lowest income people the most. I know it’s a consumption tax, but it’s closer to a “sin tax” like tobacco has.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:49 am)GM has already been advertising the Volt. You know, the ad with all the decades of gas stations at one location, where the last one eventually gets torn down and turns back into a pretty grassy field? There have been too many people who have accused GM of vaporware, though.
The idea of an extended range electric car will sell itself compared to a standard electric car which will leave you stranded if you try to push your luck.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:49 am)I would imagine that now that the world’s auto makers are starting to get serious about EV’s, battery development will progress at an exponential rate. As a result, EV’s will proliferate at an increased rate. Countries like China and India, where there is a big push to establish automotive infrastructure, will probably get ahead of us shortly in using EV’s, as they haven’t the gas cars to displace like us here in North America.
Also the automotive companies in Asia, and Europe don’t seem to be dragging thier feet on EV’s, like the ones here in NA, so I would expect that that will translate into the rest of the world moving much quicker into EV use. I don’t know about the numbers, of course, but probably more so than predicted by the writers of the article.
We probably have to keep in mind, that these people predicting the slow movement into EV’s may have some affiliation/interest with the oil companies who naturally want to slow the development of a displacment technology, at least until they can get in on the act to profit from it as well.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:54 am)Exactly why the Volt the is the correct approach. I will not buy an EV without a range extender, period. I want to be able to drive cross-country in my car if I am so inclined, just as I can now. I want my purchases to increase my quality of life, not reduce it. Range limitations and range anxiety are real issues for pure EVs.
That said, I will buy a Chevy Volt. It offers the best of both worlds — EV for short range and gas for the occasional cross-country trip, no range anxiety, and no sacrificed quality of living.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:55 am)This is all non-sense..
Does anyone doubt that gas will not continue to go up?.. does anyone doubt the cost of batteries will go down and quality will improve?
These two lines will intercept at some point and it will be ICE armageddon after that, two years later and you wont be able to buy a new ICE car.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:57 am)Canuk
Where are all the serious EV’s in Europe and Asia?
Also, I trust Lyle to vet his sources better than to use an Oil affiliated spokesman.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:58 am)As far as a business plan, It really doesn’t matter if the EVs are successful or not.
The automakers are “too big to fail” so the “progressives” and central planning Keynesians will just keep them afloat with the Fed’s UNLIMITED fiat debt-currency. As long as it keeps the idiot “Special” Interest groups happy, Congress is happy.
Perhaps we should have a “Special Interest Olympics”? Congress members could serve pork BBQ and charge the whole thing to the taxpayers (who aren’t invited).
Anyway, a question:
Since the Private Fed can print unlimited fiat debt-currency and loan it to the US Treasury while charging the interest to the taxpayers (charging interest on credit is brilliant! Evil, but brilliant) AND since Congress can use it to borrow and spend the U.S. out of depression and into prosperity, why do ANY of us need to work at all?
The Treasury could just GIVE each of us a couple hundred thousand every year and we’ll ALL live like kings! Consider it a “jobs” program like the one the UAW and Wall Street enjoys. This “living on credit” will work well until the US Gov’t Gross Receipts can’t pay the interest to the Fed Bankers on fiat money they created out of THIN AIR.
Unfortunately, many individuals have tried this with their credit cards, but it ALWAYS ends badly. What happens when a country goes bankrupt? Ask the Soviets…
REAL Public Debt EXCEEDS $74 TRILLION!
http://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/listing_article.asp?section=451§ion2=451&CatID=4&ArticleSource=372
Progressives and Keynesian Republicrats must be evil geniuses! They have convinced us that the ends justify the means and that it’s the surface of the ocean that counts so we must pay NO attention to the depth of the water. Don’t worry, we’ll NEVER fall out of our sinking boat.
(How will you pay for you Volt once your currency is worthless?)
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:10 am)I forecast that 0.5% of the forecasts will be correct.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:10 am)(click to show comment)
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:12 am)Tax is to raise money to run the government NOT force change!!!!
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:12 am)I (currently) have a spare kidney that I’ll wager against THAT happening.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:13 am)I agree with the weak forcast. I think it all comes down to price. People just aren’t going to pay these premium prices for EREVs and BEVs. Sure there will be an enthusiast segment of the market that buy them, but the vast majority of the public will stay away until there is no price penalty required to buy this technology. You can want to drive without gas or go green all you want, but price is always the first determination. If people can’t afford it, they can’t afford it.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:14 am)Way too early in the thread to go OT on politics (imo)
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+3
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:15 am)With the Volt, the geniuses at Chevrolet have solved every drawback with electric vehicles. The car will be the greatest thing since… well… cars!
Now they need some really smart Madison Avenue people to bring home the message to Americans.
They are going to need clever advertising that shows the whole picture of how the Volt is really different from ordinary hybrids and BEVs and really get people talking about the Volt at the water cooler.
They need to bring home the fact that the Volt will dramatically lower fuel usage without any lifestyle change or range anxiety and be fun to drive on top of it!
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:16 am)Price is the real issue with this one. The Volt only makes since to purchase from an economical standpoint if fuel cost over $5 a gallon. (notice I said economical not environmental as that is what most people base purchases on) Most people will not shell out $40k for a 4 seater when you can get something similar for 1/2 that cost (see the Civic, Cobalt or new Cruze). For that matter most people will not buy a $40k car period. If GM can get the costs down to $25k you will sell all the Volts you can make and easily have 10 million on the road by 2016.
Some may be scared of new technology (electric drive) and others may be scared that the battery will not last (even with the 100k mile warranty). Time and cost are what it will take for electric vehicles to be widely accepted.
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+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:18 am)I’m not really knowledgeable about the auto industry, but Nissan’s production forecast immediately struck me as insanely optimistic. While I hope JD Power’s numbers are pessimistic, I’d bet he is closer to what the actual sales will be.
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-14
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:20 am)(click to show comment)
+3
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:21 am)A couple more things..
1. we dont and never will need 5 minute recharges for our electric cars.. the idea that we need this is a conditioned mindset belief from 100 years of ICE powered cars.. at most we would use a handful of fast charge stations along the major highways, and batteries in common use today (such as A123 LiFe) can routinely be charged in 15-20 minutes.
2. we dont need 300-1000 mile range on our electric vehicles either.. you will spend thousands of $$ to have a capacity that you will only use a couple of times a year, and carry all that weight all the time, even when you are driving a couple of miles to the grocery store. If you are one of the few that truly need it, such as really anxious people, long distance haulers, aviation or someone with a 100 mile daily commute then you can always get an EREV.. and it could always be on a trailer that you rent from UHAUL as needed.
3. Finally, we dont need excessive 10-15 year battery warranties either… but it is nice to have. A 100 mile pack with a 2000 cycle life battery will last 200,000 miles.. by that time you need a new car anyways.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:23 am)The unspoken implication from the story may be that there is an undercurrent toward an E-REV OEM-rally that is forming.
Out in the ocean, when a sea floor shift occurs, there may not immediately be a very largely-apparent “wave” at the surface formed.
But the undercurrent of energy is there. It does not become apparent until it gets closer and closer to the shore.
A tsunami of technical design change, VOLTec, can wipe out a large part of insufficiently-designed “competition”, which may be an unspoken implication in the story above. And, that E-REV will be what they forecast to remain viable for the intermediate future.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:27 am)The Mid East could purposely lower the price of oil for the intent of stopping consumers in buying the high price Volt. I hope that does not happen!!
If GM initially fails with the Volt, due to lack of sales, will they still be accused of building what consumers don’t want? Then, credit would be given to the all so smart Toyota and Honda who had the foresight and knowledge knowing the Volt type route was not the way to go. It wouldn’t surprise me if that happened. I can see the media going at it now.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:28 am)“Price is the real issue with this one… Most people will not shell out $40k for a 4 seater”
How does Mercedes stay in business then?.. The 2010 E350 4 coupe seater starts at $48k, with a V6 engine.
I will call you unpatriotic if you tell me a Chevy is not as good as a Mercedes.. the Volt program even has german engineers working on it
Using your logic, would they shell out $40k for an 8 seater then?
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:31 am)Well, no tin-foil-hat-wearing member will see it towards the bottom of the list.. lately these threads have been getting hard to read. Post it near the top, I say.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:34 am)I predict that all plug-in EV’s manufactured, will be sold.
Build ‘em and we will buy!
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:42 am)“You cant stop progress”
I like this ad, the music just builds up… the end could be improved in a new version.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xy_zsbuYl-M
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:46 am)The government uses the tax code to effect change all the time. Look at the Tax credit that is being offered in Canada and the US to encourage people to buy EREV or BEV cars. My lovely state of CT is currently running without a budget and is proposing raising the taxes on cigarettes and alcohol again raising money to run the state at the same time hopefully getting people to cut back.
They don’t have to raise the price of gas on day one, but put out a plan to ease into it. One method of inducing change. Either that or help bring the estimated cost of these next generation green machines into a price range that will make it easier for more then a select few to benefit. Maybe work on changing the laws to allow direct sales to the consumer so they don’t have to pay for all the middle men along the way from manufacturer to consumer. Anything to keep the costs down and make these cars competitive with traditional ICE ones.
If Obama and others want to electrify the automobile industry they have to come up “incentives” for us to help them out with making this reality.
Been waiting – watching this car evolve and can’t wait to get my hands on one. But I think I’m in the minority.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:46 am)Ever the optimist (which reminds me, where’s statik?) I think that once we get a million or so vehicles’ wheels on the road, things will pick up speed, so even using the numbers above (and some patience), we’d be well on our way!
Institutional/emotional inertia is an incredible obstacle, but one that WILL be overcome. Dan’s tidal wave is coming, it’s just at a lot slower pace than many of us here would like to see.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+4
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:48 am)Makes perfect sense does it? Let’s see. If we started the process now we’d start getting the oil in about 2030-2040. Isn’t that when this report suggests the ICE will be on its way out?
I’m not opposed to drilling but (1) there aren’t significant amounts to be found in the US; and (2) any amounts that would be found wouldn’t be available for twenty to thirty years, which is how long it takes under optimistic scenarios. Biofuels are far more promising than this. If over the last 20 years we spent 1/5th as much on developing biofuels as we did drilling dry holes it’s quite probably that we’d have solved our energy problem by now. There is a reason why T. Boone Pickens has concluded that drilling is no longer a sensible option.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:51 am)Yes, you’re absoutely right. You have to start somewhere (funny you should be quoting Mao’s little red book though …..).
Even better: More cars for us! In a completely self-interested and self-absorbed way, I’m hoping that gas prices stay low until we get our Volts, at which time they can return to trend lines. But that would of course not be a good thing from a policy perspective. People’s memory and focus on the energy problem just seem overly short.
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-1
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:56 am)This assumes business as usual i.e. ecocide.
High gas prices combined with large scale events bringing home the truth about climate change will have a huge impact.
In the short term, I’d like to see a survey on how many are willing to replace their one family car with an EV.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:59 am)There are no conspiracies, just the basic law of supply & demand and the fact that you cant store a lot of oil economically. Parking a ship full of oil off-shore is just a temporary thing.
Once the economy starts to pick up you will see gas shoot up again, hopefully no more than $3.50-4 a gallon in the US.. there has been some attempts to control oil speculators but it is hard to do, some say impossible.
The increased acceptance of electric vehicles will tend to stabilize the cost of gas, and new techs will come along to make cheap fuels out of organics and coal/tar sands.. plus increased investment in deep ocean oil extraction.. but the days of $2 a barrel oil extraction are rapidly coming to an end.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:00 am)I like that… a Tsunami of Change is coming.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:02 am)Mao stole that quote from my gramps. I agree about the first wave of folks in line are likely HERE. So “HEY GM, ARE YOU LISTENING?”
Just thought I’d give them a shout out (lol).
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:05 am)That commercial is worthless & stupid.
In the last final seconds, only then do we see the Volt.
Not the production version mind you, the concept version, and only the front end.
We don’t even see the car in motion as you would in all other car commercials.
And where is the handsome guy or the hot chick that are also standard in new car commercials?
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+6
Aug 1st, 2009 (10:06 am)The potential for mass sales of electric cars doesn’t lie with the green crowd, or the global warming crowd, or the peak oil crowd, or the national security crowd. . . . . .it lies with the penny pinching crowd.
This is where I think most forecasters (and GM) are missing the boat.
A light weight low cost BEV (like the imiev or the electric focus or maybe the aptera 2e etc..) will end up saving a LOT of money over time, and I think these cars price will quickly fall to around the $20k ish range or maybe even a little under.
Once electric car owners start to get to year two, or three and four and realize they’ve never bought gas, and they’ve never had the car to the shop . . . ever. .. . . that’s when the sales will start to pick up some volume. This point will be driven home even harder if/when we see another gas price spike.
/My financial records show that over the years I’ve spent roughly the same amount on maintenance as I have on gas for any given vehicle.
// penny pinchers realize that money saved is money that they didn’t have to earn and pay taxes on (i.e. add another 25% or so for all the taxes you saved)
/// The largest segment of american households have 3 or more cars (i.e. they’ll still have their ICE car for trips where an electric car won’t work)
//// — this is info that “the man” doesn’t want you to know — “the man” wants you to work more hours, buy more crap at the newer bigger mall across town, pay more taxes, buy more gas, spend more on car maintenance, etc. . etc…
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (10:07 am)Reagan started massive drilling and exploration as a response to Carter’s oil crisis.. by the early 90s a barrel of oil was around $10 a gas was under $1 a gallon.. the oil glut.
So I would say it takes less than 10 years..
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+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (10:08 am)It does both of course. Anyone who has made it through Econ 101 knows that.
Plus, AFAIK, all the gas tax proposals included offsetting decreases in payroll taxes so as to make it revenue neutral. The problem with the “gas tax” is not with the substance of the proposal, it’s that it includes the word “tax,” a word so powerful it elicits a reflexive and negative response in the minds of those in some corners of the electorate, wholly out of proportion and generally unconnected with the substance of the proposal.
But you can put your mind at ease — the “gas tax” doesn’t seem to be in the cards. The preferred route is Cap & Trade, which has the advantage of not containing the word “tax” and also, by including the word “Trade”, suggesting a strong entrepreneurial spirit.
Such is the sad state of our debased political discussion, doubtless fueled in part by by talk radio and politico TV and effectuated by redistricting whose sole purpose is to create safe seats for incumbents on both sides of the isle.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:09 am)I personally have trouble paying more than about $15K for a car. I may make an exception for the Volt.
Theres a thread on the Tesla Motors Club titled “It’s the Batteries, Stupid!”
There are two approaches to getting battery costs down: Manufacturing process improvements, and improved energy density. I think we’ll need both.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:10 am)I dont think the production intent Volt design was finalized when they shot that commercial, thats why the ending needs to be updated.. and use a different color please!
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (10:11 am)Well…there really isn’t much to comment on here. Even in the sourced Detnews.com article the only discussion of substance is regarding Cafe rules. The rest is just basically presented as a bunch of opinions. Perhaps there is some data and logic behind these opinions but very little was given.
There are just too many variables that cannot be known to be able to predict with any reasonable accuracy what the EV (HEV, PHEV, EREV, BEV) market will be like 5 or 10 years from now. I can say with some conviction that battery will continue to fall, battery chemistry will continue to improve, and gas prices will trend higher. Together these variables and battery availabiliy will determine how deep and how fast EVs penetrate the market. I do think the current administration’s goal of 1M plug-ins by 2015 is fairly aggressive but achievable. I also believe predictions about legacy momentum and 100 years of ICE production affecting future EV market penetration is vastly overrated. Markets can turn on a dime, because emotional humans drive them. Just ask the housing market and the SUV/Light Truck market. Unfortunately supply cannot react so quickly but at least if the options are available to market then ee can have market demand discussion on real data rather than some pundits opinions. I also think the need for every vehicle sold to have 200 miles of range and/or some form of range extender is vastly overrated too. Sure this is true for the majority of the market but there is plenty of market for shorter range vehicles that meet consumers needs to easily exceed the more pessimistic short term predictions.
The idea of market saturation for EVs has been brought up before and it is a real concern. It is important that manufacturers bring out products that are clear improvements over the previous generation (e.g. Honda Insight failing agains the Prius) and that does not necessarily mean cheaper price. If new EV product isn’t improving the in-market offering, then it better be addressing a new market segment (e.g. Mitsu offering a CUV EREV). The pleathora of market segments to be addressed will help prolong market saturation initially but at some point the EV to ICE metrics need to improve to grow the markets past the initial unmet demand. There is no doubt in my mind that these metric will not improve for the EVs but the pace of improvement is what is key.
Time will tell but I predit the world economy will bump up against oil supplies in it’s efforts to recover from the current slump. Unless we start to displace oil usage in our energy paradigm, this issue won’t be going away anytime soon and it could get VERY painful in the process.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:14 am)of course some reliable people dont believe in that stuff.. and we may be at the beginning of a new ice age also..
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:16 am)” The potential for mass sales of electric cars doesn’t lie with the green crowd, or the global warming crowd, or the peak oil crowd, or the national security crowd. . . . . .it lies with the penny pinching crowd.”
Very well said
“// penny pinchers realize that money saved is money that they didn’t have to earn and pay taxes on (i.e. add another 25% or so for all the taxes you saved)”
Not sure about this one, I dont think this is a common motivation to save money.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:17 am)DonC…Thank you for making sense.
As for the previous two posters…. be sure to train your kids well for military service if you want to keep your oil and burn your gas, becuase we will have to go somewhere else to take it.
The future is clear. The fastest way to increase domestic energy is through solar, wind, geothermal and hydro (not dams, but rather underwater turbines). This combined with an overhauled ’smart’ grid and electric vehicles will change the world dynamic on energy.
Or….you could send me your sons and I will lead them into hostile lands so that we can set up friendly goverments who will provide us with oil. And this is just the security argument for getting us off oil.
Harrier1970
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:18 am)This discussion needs to looked at with an open mind.
I am all for telling OPEC to kiss my a##, but I am also thinking with my wallet too.
This is simply a matter of economics for the masses. (not everyone mind you like early adopters or the very wealthy or save the planet people…the masses) Once it becomes cost effective to drive an EV (with proper charging stations) or an EREV like the Volt people will simply transition to it. Of course this depends on several factors such as similiar performance and safety. Once you have other car options that are on par or better than the traditional ICE than it is simply a matter of economics for most people. Regardless of what surveys may say, this is what it comes down to.
Hawk
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:25 am)We could look back at the experts of another age and how they reacted to the “horseless” carriage. How they stated that it would NEVER replace the horse. I am sure that these experts could show a multitude of reasons why this would be so.
Change will come and it will be faster than these ‘experts’ predict. The first iPod was not looked at as being anything special… we know how hard that hit Sony. Does anyone own a Walkman anymore?
Harrier1970
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:26 am)Amen brother!
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:27 am)When you look at energy the US has some limitations and some great opportunities. We have:
1. Very little oil
2. A good bit of natural gas
3. Tons (and tons and tons) of coal
4. Lots of wind
5. All kinds of sun in some areas
6. A good bit of geothermal in the West
7. Excess farmland all over the place (75 million surplus acres over just the last 15 years)
Electrification of transportation would be a great thing because it allows you to use all of these sources to fuel transportation. But along with that we need to move on the other fronts as well, especially biofuels.
We are very close to the one breakthrough we need — a cost effective way to separate the carbohydrates and sugars from the molecules that protect them — to have all the biofuel we need to replace 100% of the oil used in transportation at a cost which is competitive with oil at even its current price. And, as a liquid with high energy density (though not as high as gasoline), it is a convenient form for storing energy. (Batteries are crazy in this sense — right now you need a $15,000 battery to store $.64 of electricity).
We have the natural resource to make this happen. What we’ve lacked up till now is the recognition of what needs to happen and the resolve to make it so.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:38 am)I am not at all surprised by this forecast. Range anxiety is going to make a lot of people uncomfortable.
But I think it will be longer than 2030’s. Perhaps 2050’s.
All that goes out the window though when the perpetual “just around the corner” EESTOR comes through.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:40 am)Interesting argument… people WON’T pay for the latest technology.
I guess if you just wanted to get from point a to b then why pay twice as much? That is it in its most basic form…. well done!
You know, this whole line of thinking has made me rethink my phone. I can get a free phone from my service provider… why the hell did I shell out all that money for that damn iPhone? Oh, yeah… it does something else for me than just allow me to talk. And the price is down quite a bit since it came out too.
People will be initially drawn to the Volt because they want an electric car, or they want to be on the cutting edge. The price works for the first year to sell 10,000. As production ramps up, price will come down and then they can sell in the millions. This has all been covered before.
Harrier1970
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:40 am)I think that the “recognition” part of the equation is on the rise, but the “resolve” needs some work. If the costka (spelling?) process scales up, the separation will be moot. It adds right onto a landfill and uses its waste (fingers crossed). Isn’t there a pile of oil off the Calif coast that’s off limits? Here in PA they are JUST about to tap the Marselles Shale gas deposit – worth billions and a LOT of jobs. They also seem to be watching the effect the water use will have on the area (so that’s SOME comfort). In short, we really ought to be tapping all of our resources. My bias is toward nuclear (and I live ~120 miles from TMI (but I’m upwind
).
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:41 am)One thing to keep in mind is that the percentage of the car market held by electrified vehicles would understate their impact. This very good point was made earlier this week by statik and some others when discussing the age of the car fleet. In response to the notion that the average age of a car was 16 years, they pointed out that cars greater than say 10 years old were driven very little and that many of the oldest cars weren’t driven at all, and that the average age greatly overestimated how long it would take to turn over the fleet.
Something similar would be true when distinguishing the number of EVs from the number miles driven by EVs. Given how much cheaper it is to drive an EV mile, a small percentage of EVs should make up a much larger percentage of the miles driven as all trips which could be taken in an EV or in an ICE are taken in the EV. For example, for families with two cars, all those routine trips taken to the grocery store or on other weekend errands will be done in the EV.
You could literally see this type of substitution when gas prices were high last summer — the SUVs disappeared from grocery store parking lots and even office parking lots had more sedans and fewer trucks.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:47 am)Herm says,
“There are no conspiracies, just the basic law of supply & demand and the fact that you cant store a lot of oil economically. Parking a ship full of oil off-shore is just a temporary thing.”
*****************************************************
You must be naive to think oil has to be stored on ships when holding back oil to raise the price. The Middle East does it to the world all the time by not pumping it out of the ground.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:53 am)It going to take a long long time for electrics to gain a permanent foothold in the USA auto market. In the meantime GM need to get its fiscal house in order. With Ford, Honda and VW posting very healthy profits last quarter GM is still a basket case. Only the government’s willingness to keep pumping money into this failed corp lets it survive still today. Why are these incompetent executives getting rewarded for their stupidity. It absurd and outrageous.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (10:54 am)I think that the EVs will really catch on when they are superior to the best ICE powers vehicles in more then one way. Before that happens they will remain a niche product. Liquid fuels are so good, they are energy dense, generally safe, easy to store and transport. They also can be manufactured from just about any source. After millions of years of evolution the nature has developed so many ways to convert sunlight and minerals into the carbon chains of different lengths. The storage containers don’t cost thousands and are practical. The ICE has undergone a more then a century of evolution and refinement. It is cheep to manufacture and almost completely recyclable and incredibly durable. The modern diesels are also incredibly efficient and can run on bio fuels. I am not saying that EVs are not the future but they will have a heck of the fight on their hands.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (11:00 am)Herm,
Did I say ALL people will not pay $40k for a car? NO. You will have people that want new tech and / or have money to burn and will pay $40K. That is not the issue. In fact GM will sell all 10,000 2010 Volts in the first month of sales easily. My point was in order to get to the Magic number of 10 million electric cars on the road annually the price is going to have to come down. And Yes Mercedes will sell SOME $48K cars but are they going to have 10 million of those sold annually in 6 years? I think not.
Do you know of an 8 seater electric SUV for $40k? Now that would be a big seller in the states.
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-1
Aug 1st, 2009 (11:03 am)Range anxiety is overrated. Nissan will prove you wrong with their popular full electrics. ERev is for people that are math-challenged and willing to pay extra for a feature that will rarely be used. The true EV revolution will begin on August 2nd. GM is just interim technology that will be long forgotten on the road to true electric cars.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (11:05 am)Maybe I am just an a to b kind of guy. The iphone is cool but I can live without one.
“As production ramps up, price will come down and then they can sell in the millions.” — My point exactly. Price is the issue not technology.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (11:12 am)The automotive industry know how is the engine. Once they lose it, they ‘re dead and they know it. that’s why an hybrid looks more attractive to them than pure EV.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (11:13 am)I think that Electric Vehicles will not be a large percentage until at least 2050 and probably longer if no better battery tech than Lithium is still used. But Hybrids like the Volt could make up to a third of all cars sold by maybe 2025 at the earliest. The main reason being cost. People don’t want to pay thousands extra for a few more mpg, it just doesn’t make sense for the masses. IMO, the Volt is just too expensive. I mean get real, how many $40K Cheverolets has GM sold ? And I don’t believe for a second that future Volts will decline in price. I mean get real, how many Chevys have declined in price from year to year ?
If you can objectively answer these questions you will know the Volt has a tough row to hoe.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (11:18 am)Right on …. except when “the Man” wants to put a GPS in my car to charge me for miles driven. The fuel tax savings will be void.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (11:23 am)So who should pay for the roads you drive on?
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (11:28 am)I think that olde Tim is, ah, rather WELL and has some interesting things to share in relation to the ultimate outcome of where something as novel as the electric car comes about. Too early, too late to think about such bothersome matters in this forum… sounds a bit like a Alice in Wonderland quandary.
Some here in Houston, where there is the rather curious notion that OIL is important and should stay so, there is a worry that what the great Leader, the ONE is doing is tooling up a situation where the currency, the Dollar, becomes hyper inflated and bushels of dollars will be the next Wiemar Republic catastrophe, (and we know where that went don’t we?). Since oil is valued around dollars and is a major world commodity that unlike pork bellies we cannot just walk away from, the industry will be destabilized too. The sinking ship, the Titanic ship of State will be ripe for exploitation. AMERO? anyone? No borders…, a world currency?
And in this oceanic sized melee rides the little electric car in its second attempt to unseat petrol engined autos. If our money becomes near worthless and there is a depression then the economic where with all to purchase an electric anything becomes a moot point.
Sometimes I wonder, is there a real fear of looking behind the curtains and seeing the man behind it?
The Lads want little foil hats!
Regards! Higgins, Zeus & Apollo
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-1
Aug 1st, 2009 (11:28 am)I personally prefer the pyramid hat fabricated from brazing/welding rod. Tinfoil hats are highly overrated, IMHO. Of course, the pyramid hat with tinfoil outer panels may achieve the true critical mass.
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-4
Aug 1st, 2009 (11:41 am)Biofuels make no sense. The energy per square mile you can get from plants is just too low. Even if we industrialize every square inch of the planet it will not begin to do the job.
Please download ‘Sustainable Energy, Without the Hot Air’ by David MacKay (a Physicist at Cambridge).
withouthotair.com
Personally I am confident that the human race will rely on nuclear power for nearly all energy needs eventually. MacKay doesn’t draw those conclusions he just gives you the facts.
It’s that million-to-one ratio between nuclear and chemical energy. Find out how much energy a local nuclear plant produces and then go look at it. And, recognize that it is refueled once every couple of years with a delivery from a single semi-truck.
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+3
Aug 1st, 2009 (11:41 am)To address the drill baby drill issue.
The USA is drilling more. Plans are to add side slanted wells in the Santa Barbara Channel. The result being more tax dollars in revenue, more jobs, and of course more petroleum. We are also getting a wind generator manufacturer in the area. This located just up the road in Santa Paula. A great location in that there is a long valley there which stretches from the coast to about 25 miles inland. A natural wind collector. The valley is currently home to a hand full of run down businesses, some track housing, and a few farms.
On the question of EREV/EV demand.
When you look at the big picture one tends to agree. “How many people have a garage?”. But, when you consider the competitive nature of people you realize that having a plug in (free gas) available is a big plus. Yes, this means many of us will become electrical outlet vampires. The temptation to leach on random power outlets will be compelling.
And the cool culture factor.
Q>Why have so many people bought Escalades with 22″ wheels and custom grills (for $50k+?).
A>Because they are cool.
The forecasters are wrong. Smooth, quiet, high torque, low emission, electric drive cars are the new way to drive.
=D~
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-3
Aug 1st, 2009 (11:41 am)ALL the above are prudent initiatives towards better energy security – I am especially fond of cellulosic ethanol, myself. Lots of oil up in ANWAR, and it’s not clear to me we’ll have to send soldiers up to take it from the eskimos and caribou. The years have taught me that a diverse portfolio is the most prudent.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (11:42 am)I agree with you, and with koz at 10:11 AM. When gas spikes up to $4/gal again, the market will “turn on a dime” again, just as it did last summer. When it sticks there, as it will sooner or later, the “turn on a dime” will also stick.
The decision to buy a higher mileage car is as emotional as it is the result of any rational analysis of the cost. People just hate to spend the big dollars on gas. Many, if not the majority, will buy a Prius/Volt type vehicle when the price of gas spikes, even if a careful cost analysis would show that it would be cheaper overall to keep the car they have. I know that I damned near bought a Prius, even though it goes totally against my grain.
So I’m a lot more optimistic that these “experts”.
LJGT!@##$%VWOTR!!
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Aug 1st, 2009 (11:43 am)Well put. “The Man” behind the curtain! LOL!
Look up to #10 as I wrote a bit. Also back to the GM chart and metrics, about the early section, I say. I have been so busy that I don’t have much time to follow the site much more than the occasional lurk. Attempting to get back into my olde field of work and that was not building bridges, perhaps riding over them. LOL!
Regards! Higgins & The Lads
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Aug 1st, 2009 (12:01 pm)I agree with you koz.
Just making the point that the tax savings for not buying fuel should not be considered a savings because we will have to pay that tax anyway. But just think of all the gas tax money I will save on the 25 gallons of gas I use each summer in my lawn mower.
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+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (12:11 pm)So “HEY GM, ARE YOU LISTENING?” ….Right you are, Tag, if you mean that Voltec is the “start of a journey of a thousand miles….”! Yes, I genuinely hope GM is listening!
And I sincerely hope & believe several GM decision-makers ARE listening (e.g., Frank Weber). So I want to say, GM, that although in an (essentially) free market such as ours pricing has a major influence on market penetration, so do well-conceived marketing campaigns! (Witness the incredible success of Apple’s high-priced iPhone).
The Volt’s marketing campaign needs to create the clear public perception that……
1) Its operating cost will be about the same as the cost of running a refrigerator (or about 1/5th that of existing cars)
2) Its maintenance/repair costs will be dramatically lower than the maintenance costs of existing cars
3) Its acquisition cost vs operating range is much lower than for pure EVs (e.g., Frank Weber’s charts)
4) Its inherent power source redundancy assures that the likelihood of being stranded will be very low (vs existing cars)
5) Its operating range will be essentially unlimited — it’s designed for both local and coast-to-coast travel
6) etc, etc…..
Bob Lutz, Frank Weber, Andrew Farah & several key people from GM Marketing should be having a great many “brain-storming” sessions to “start the journey of a thousand miles”!
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+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (12:14 pm)That’s because horses were not dying out! A better form of energy and a better way to harness it came along.
If forecasters could predict the future they wouldn’t be working, think about that. These are the same people that predicted an increase of sales for 2008. Right?
Unfortunately for auto forecasters, things are not like they use to be. If they don’t acknowledge peak oil then they will not even be in the ball park come judgment day.
They could be right, if we slip into a depression and our oil demand stays low. They will be dead wrong if the economy tries to jump back only to reveal the true energy crisis. So many factors that even a carnival fortune teller couldn’t fake his way though this mess.
I’m calling for a brutal realization of the energy crisis followed by massive petroleum price instability. As a result, by the year 2015 most cars sold will have some drivetrain electrification. Perhaps buying an ICE only car will get you the same look you get for driving a Hummer today. Might also have to pay a hefty Carbon tax. The rich will still drive their whatever they want but there will not be enough golden juice (gasoline) for the masses to enjoy such pleasure.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (12:18 pm)nasaman,
what kind of voodoo html tags did you use??? Even my email progam (which isn’t internet) went italics!(LOL!).
Oh, and the content was excellent too.(g).
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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Aug 1st, 2009 (12:24 pm)texas,
If forecasters can’t get it right, what does that say about your er, well, your forecast? Think about it.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+5
Aug 1st, 2009 (12:25 pm)Drill now! lol. People still have no idea about peak oil. Even though we in the U.S. hit peak in 1970 and not even Alaska changed that nor did all of our high technology, people still can’t accept it.
Even if you have your head sand your ass still gets full exposure.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (12:29 pm)No voodoo, Tag (I reserve my dolls & pins for manic depressive Shrinks)! LOL
(MD = MANIC DEPRESSIVE*, right?) —you taught me this in NYC at VoltNation, remember?
(….or was it MD= Mentally Deficient?)
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Aug 1st, 2009 (12:35 pm)Correction: The saudis do slow down production when needed, after all it costs them $2 a barrel to suck it out of the ground.. but very few other producers do so, they are less affluent and cant afford to cut their income even temporarily. You stop the pumps, the pipelines and the ships but you still have to make the bank payments and payrolls on all that oil producing infrastructure.
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+3
Aug 1st, 2009 (12:37 pm)“The automotive industry know how is the engine. Once they lose it, they ‘re dead and they know it. that’s why an hybrid looks more attractive to them than pure EV.”
So in other words when all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail ?
Probably the reason GM’s EV has an ICE in it.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (12:37 pm)And I thought it was my author-itis (yet another pun).
BTW, I “signed up” for the Volt waiting list at SIX dealerships. Not one knew about the Volt. Actually one had heard of the concept car, but “knew” it’d never be produced. (deep sigh). I’ve called national talk radio (twice) to talk up the Volt (WBPZ in Boston) (the screener calls me “that Volt guy from Pa” (lol) and they were VERY interested, but thought that it “died” after 40 miles. I did what I could to “school ‘em”. (shrug).
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+3
Aug 1st, 2009 (12:39 pm)You mean like Chiney and Rush. I’d rather beleive scientists …
“Its cooling” is the fourth most popular global warming denier talking point.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
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Aug 1st, 2009 (12:40 pm)“There are two approaches to getting battery costs down: Manufacturing process improvements, and improved energy density. I think we’ll need both.”
also improving the ruggedness of the batteries.. after all GM only uses half the battery capacity to preserve their life. Toyota and Ford use even less of the total capacity in their hybrids.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (12:42 pm)I read just this morning in the paper that Chevron has stopped nearly all of its gas well drilling in the US due to weak demand and prices. The Chevron guy was quoted as saying that, by the end of the year, he doubted if they would have one gas well drilling rig at work in the US.
Just FWIW. And no, I am not making this up. I’m sure it’s on the news wires somewhere this AM.
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+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (12:44 pm)Yeah, Eskimos and Caribou can’t shoot back. Well, maybe some Eskimos, come to think of it.
“Kill ‘em all and sort ‘em out later”, right.
There’s going to be a reckoning some day. Wait for it.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (12:48 pm)Well, at least we’ll be able to pay the Chinese back at ten cents on the dollar. I think maybe they’re a little bit worried that it may actually happen.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (12:51 pm)“Sometimes I wonder, is there a real fear of looking behind the curtains and seeing the man behind it?”
______________________
Pull back the curtain. Support HR 1207.
/Although — If this thing were actually to be put into law, and we had our look behind the curtain, I suppose it could be the catalyst that sends the whole mess tumbling down.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (12:54 pm)Noel,
Demand is down due to the recession.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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Aug 1st, 2009 (12:54 pm)If sin taxes actually worked, we would have no smokers and no drinkers by now. In fact it is just a pathetic way to exploit a population with an addiction for a steady revenue stream. A gas tax would be the same.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (1:02 pm)“Attempting to get back into my olde field of work and that was not building bridges, perhaps riding over them. LOL!”
_________________
Well, if that means you’re driving a rock truck, be sure to scotch tape your diplomas to the glove box. But remember those are for OTHER people to admire. You’ll have to keep your eyes on the road.
http://thechive.com/2009/05/one-lucky-truck-driver-8-photos/
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Aug 1st, 2009 (1:03 pm)This article failed to mention how forecasters felt about E-REVs. I’m sure that because of their projected high costs, the forecasters feel that they will an insignificant portion of the market, but I believe that once these types of vehicles are in the hands of consumers and their everyday, real world experiences become known, that demand for this type of vehicle will grow faster than is now predicted. Sort of like a viral campaign. This combined with GM’s focus to bring the cost down rather than to focus on further EV range will mesh with demand and will become as common as HEVs are now. In fact, I can foresee the E-REV replacing the HEV by the end of the next decade. The forecasters are probably right about BEVs though, that will take a long time before they are the dominant technology.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (1:04 pm)DonC
We at LEAST share our low opinion of politicians (and much more, I’m sure). I think we should just start over and vote every incumbent out of office asap as long as they are “for” term limits. At least we’ll start fresh. How ’bout it?
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (1:09 pm)Nasaman, I agree with all of your Volt ‘marketing points,’ except number 2:
2) Its maintenance/repair costs will be dramatically lower than the maintenance costs of existing cars
—————
I just can’t see that. I mean you have a double+ system running.
You have all the maintenance of the ICE, plus all the maintenance of the EV, plus the maintenance of all the systems/components of the system to run the two systems inline, and to manage the ICE’s interaction with generator.
Sure, maybe there is some gains because the ICE is working a lot less, but then again, when it is operating, the Volt is running the engine at ‘optimal’ levels to produce power, which DOES NOT translate into ‘optimal’ levels for engine life.
If that 82hp 4 banger, is forced to run at 4,500 RPMS all day long going down the highway to keep the juice flowing to maximize power to give 160HP out of the electric engine to propell a 3,500lb car around decently…that is less than ideal. How is that going to be less expensive to maintain/repair in the long run than a ‘right sized’ V6 ICE breezing through its daily operation?
Also, when something does go wrong, I normally take my ‘cheese’ ICE vehicles that break from my business to ‘Joe the mechanic’ and get it fixed for a third the price of the dealer…am I going to be able to do that at GM?
…I just don’t see dramatically lower.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (1:14 pm)Just asking, but didn’t they go with the 1.4 because they didn’t want to stress a smaller engine?
For Gen I I think the #’s will be low enough (and sparse enough) for trained dealers to handle them.
I agree with the rest of what you said though.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+6
Aug 1st, 2009 (1:24 pm)I wicked against more oil drilling, because I care about my kids not having asthma , my parents not dying from pneumonia, and my grandkids not having lung and heart disease. (not even getting into global warming) Personally, my first instinct is to say, “Who gives a rats ass about a oil shortage or paying $10 at the pumps…(just my opinion)”
But you ‘really, just hafta have’ oil quick, just give us (Canada) our rake (and a nice up front fee) and you can have all you like out of our oil sands, lol. Sure, it’ll end up costing you $100/barrell, but it is virtually limitless at that price.
…or how about we just let the price go up and adapt our lifestyles accordingly slowly over time, and add other/cleaner infrastructures along the way? Better yet, why not force that price up artificially now (say, by 25 cents extra a year-slowly, so as to not ’spook’ the herd) and get ahead of the curve?
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Aug 1st, 2009 (1:25 pm)Of course price is the issue. You will never make up the cost of a $40k Volt versus a $20K Honda Insight. The initial entry barrier is just too high. In this economy, hardly anyone except the biggest enthusiasts (us on this site) will be able to justify spending double the price for a similar product.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (1:27 pm)Your not alone, my limit is around $20k. Especially when I can get a 1 or 2 year old really nice car for that much and let someone else take the depreciation hit.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (1:38 pm)Large oil companies also intentionally leave the high risk prospecting to others when it comes to smaller wells (can’t blame them for this). Sure, it costs a lot more than if they drilled it themselves but they only have to pay once. The big boys drill big wells with much higher likelihood of profitable return. There aren’t many places that can be done in the US anymore with oil <$100/barrel or it would have been did already (ANWAR and Bakken).
http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/national/2008/05/23/arctic-drilling-wouldnt-cool-high-oil-prices.html
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Aug 1st, 2009 (1:43 pm)Agreed. My bad, I misunderstood your point.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (1:51 pm)I lost a post here, but I’ll nutshell it:
I 100% agree. Price is the key to adoption, not the platform. Not EREV, or BEV, h*******, bio. Sure some people can plunkdown $40,000 for a car…but that is only 5% of the population…so EV penetration is capped at that level.
WalMart has 1.4 million employess, and they aren’t all going out and buying a 40K EV.
The top 10 sellers in the US in May, were all $20Kish or less. (The Impala was the highest at $23,700…and GM put over $3k on the hood to sell those).
At $25,000, EVs take a big chunk of the market. At a $20,000 pricepoint, I feel the EV is the dominate platform in the market, at $15,000 it is all over for the ICE.
How long it takes? Who knows, but it is coming. It is just like geology here….pressure over time.
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-2
Aug 1st, 2009 (1:55 pm)Rasberry Test:
->nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;:-)nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (1:56 pm)A tax isn’t needed to get sales of electric vehicle going; the price of oil will accomplish that in short order. The worldwide demand for petroleum will drive the shift from ICE to EV ( in all its forms – hybrid, EREV, EV, etc.). Peak oil was reached in 2008; read the reports of declining production. So we will continue to see declining production worldwide, and an increase in demand by countries like China, and India (to mention only two). +$4.00 gas is only a few years down the road, and all those owners of ICE vehicles will be crying the blues. The rich will just go out and purchase one of the electric vehicles on the market but all those poor souls who can’t afford them will find themselves in the unemployment line because of the increased cost of transportation will drive us back into a recession.
The only possible hope is that the shift from ICE to electric vehicles can be made quickly. In addition, IMO, the shift to green energy (wind and SOLAR) is the only sensible solution to the myriad of problems facing the world. Technological advances are making solar the best answer to production of electricity. As long as the sun shines, its is a free and abundant source of energy with no after production downsides. Wind is also a good source of free energy except that changing wind patterns may reduce the amount of energy available at any given cite.
A mixed portfolio of energy production should be and is considered by the Obama administration. Through legislated incentives to the wind and solar industries, the administration is stimulating the green energy segment. United States has passed Germany (the former first place producer) of wind power.
What is needed now is the installation of a new power grid and infrastructure to distribute electricity more efficiently. We need power corridors from the wind farms to the urban areas to be built as soon as possible, and investment in the building of electric charging stations throughout the country.
Thanks for listening to my rambling! GM Volt is America’s answer to getting us off foreign oil, putting Americans back to work, and a major means of reducing pollution of our plant. Go GM, go Picken’s, go Obama, go anyone else working of solving the above problems.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (2:15 pm)Statik, I agree with many of your forecasts. But, we need to expect the unexpected.
Take dish TV service for example. Five years ago a cable TV system cost about $30 a month. A satellite dish system cost much more. Most people took a quick glance at high priced dish and stayed with cable or basic antenna.
Now you can drive past run down housing projects and see discolored roofs cluttered with dish systems. How can this be?
Before the 2008 credit crunch people with household incomes of $40k were placing down payments on $800k homes. How can this be?
And as mentioned in another post here, custom Escalaides are the rage. Why not a CR-V or RAV 4 or Sedona for under 20k?
To conclude: the rub is going to be between spending 25k for a nice midsize ICE. Or swimming up a $50 increase in car payment for a new electric model. I think the Ulysses S. Grant swim team will be hitting the water.
=D~
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+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (2:22 pm)Correction : Corn-based ethanols make little sense in terms of sustainability. It is _not_ prudent to write all biofuels off because of this, especially complementary (aka free) biofuels that at most yield a fraction of a percent of the world’s energy needs, but still help.
And it’s great that a neural information physicist has lent his brainpower to the problem, but don’t bet the farm on his insight. Nuclear’s great and will be available for _generations_, but the only source nearly guaranteed to outlast the human species and our descendants is the sun (or, let’s just say fusion). Right now, we aren’t good at harvesting this energy in any efficient or truly sustainable way (though wind is close), but we’ll utilize whatever rudimentary solar, wind, and biofuel technologies that we can.
Try not to disparage biofuels too much. Some are helpful.
NPNS! =D~~
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Aug 1st, 2009 (2:30 pm)I’m with Statik on this one.
The dramatically (effectively zero) maintenance is true for EV, but not the volt.
I can guarantee you will need service every x time or period to keep your warranty, regardless of how much you used the engine. (it’s how car manufacturers make money! :p)
Oil doesn’t last forever, so if you don’t use your engine once in a year, you might still need to change it. That’s going to cost money.
And you can bet the volt will only be serviceable by GM in early years. How much is your oil change now?
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Aug 1st, 2009 (2:32 pm)Oil demand is at all time lows.. yet the price keeps climbing.. hmm.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (2:36 pm)There is a new version of this commercial with the production volt.
It may just be the one they changed for Canada to say ‘65 kilometres’ instead of 40 miles, but ours had the ‘real’ volt in it.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (2:40 pm)Or in the case of an electric, probably just a new battery and you’re good for another 200 000 miles.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (2:57 pm)I basically agree. But a lot of it will have to do with the build quality that GM puts into the car.
Heat may be an issue (requirin more/ more frequent maintenance) if the ICE and generator are working hard at lower car speeds (less airflow). Will be interesting to see how well GM’s liquid cooling system works on both, and how they’ve engineered the cooling system on the ICE to compensate.
/ Volt owners with short commutes will still need to exercise the genset for about 30 minutes, once a week (enough to heat everything up to operating temperature and cook any condensation out). How will GM adresses this problem?
// Oil changes will probably be needed every 6 months. I would suppose the volt will have programming to tell you when a change is needed (i.e. not mileage based, but the computer takes many factors into account, including the calender).
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-6
Aug 1st, 2009 (2:58 pm)People.. People.. People.. Settle down… Relax…
His Majesty Obama has already decreed that we ALL must drive “green cars and trucks”. What we desire is unimportant.
Pay no attention to the numbers of high-performace V8 Camaros flying out the showroom doors at prices still OVER the MSRP…. (and pay no mind to the happy sales managers behind the curtain.)
It’s what Obama wants that matters. He giveth you the “clunkers rebate”, so go forth and spend frivolously on econoboxes. [Sadly most of that went to foreign automakers] He baileth out the banks to finance thee.
His commandment of 1 MILLION Hybrids must be met at all costs! Don’t forget that!
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Aug 1st, 2009 (2:59 pm)I just love my Neuton Electric Lawn mower. Like you say, “just think of all the gas tax money I will save”! Plus its quiet like the Volt will be and is; my neighbors don’t hear it when I mow the lawn in the early morning hours. The changing weather pattens has to be something that the NorthWest and other parts of the country will have to adjust to – 103 in Washington, 106 in Oregon, etc. In the LRGV, here in Texas, you cut your lawns in the early hours of the morning or just sweat like crazy at a later hour, then take a shower and a change of cloths to boot. You could say that my Neuton convinced me to go EV. I get the sweet feel of change in my pocket and extra time to relax because I don’t have to drive down to the gas station, no more back strain from pushing that heavy gas gusler, not to mention all the related odor problems. I laughed one day while leaving WalMart; a couple of winter Texans paid over $600 for a Honda ICE driven mower; my Neuton cost just over $400.
I visualize the price of the Volt being far less than some of the fancy ICE vehicles some rich person will still own in the future. I would like to purchase a Gen One Volt but may find the price prohibits me from doing so. If I don’t get one in 2010, I will definitely buy a Gen Two Volt. By that time, we should see some of the technological advances in solar cells reach the market. The money I save owning an EV will pay for the solar collectors on my house. I see green all the way to the bank.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (3:00 pm)“Herm, Did I say ALL people will not pay $40k for a car? NO. You will have people that want new tech and / or have money to burn and will pay $40K”
I pretty much agree with you, I just get piffed when people do a Volt to Corolla comparison.. why not compare it to a Mercedes?
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Aug 1st, 2009 (3:09 pm)Thankfully, one cannot be literally addicted to gasoline. For this reason and others (% of people using gasoline), such a tax could be called a bit more ‘fair’.
NPNS!! =D~~~
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Aug 1st, 2009 (3:13 pm)probably a used battery
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+4
Aug 1st, 2009 (3:20 pm)IMO, I think oil is too valuable to burn.. it should be saved for other things.
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+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (3:28 pm)Should be spelled MAD-JESTY right?
It REALLY burns me that we included foreign auto companies in the cash for clunkers program. The Japanese are laughing at us for being such suckers.
They would NEVER do such a thing, and in fact, pull every dirty little trick to keep us out of THEIR market. No such thing as free enterprise over in Japan.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (3:35 pm)“/ Volt owners with short commutes will still need to exercise the genset for about 30 minutes”
Huh? What planet of “I’m not sure I like EREVs” did you pull that from? Maybe 10 minutes every 6 months.
I do agree with Statik that the regular maintainance savings may not be that significant but that isn’t a given. No transmission, very little brake, probably on minor oil changes for ICE, and better electric AC will be offset by more expensive tires, more componentry, and potentially expensive power electronics.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (3:58 pm)carcus1
What’s in the 1207 Bill? I don’t have that one memorized (yet)(g). I wouldn’t want to support something before even reading it.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:05 pm)Maybe we should all drive corvettes at over MSRP from shady car dealers?
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:06 pm)I think they used a 1.4L because:
a) they already had it
b) when they use use an Atkinson camshaft, they can make it very efficient, even with the larger displacement.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atkinson_cycle
So what we have for the Volt is a 1.4L 75hp Atkinson cycle engine. If it were regular Otto cycle, it would be much more than 75hp.
Note that the new Prius uses a 1.8L Atkinson cycle and gets 50 MPG.
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+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:07 pm)Its not a matter of “belief”, its a matter of looking at hard data that 98% of the scientific community agrees on. There are still people that argue the world is flat and that we faked the moon landing. But that doesn’t mean they are right. Science is based on consensus of peers.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (4:10 pm)I could not agree more it is time to vote out every one!!!!
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-1
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:13 pm)Demand is lower than some recent years, but it is not an all time low.
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+4
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:13 pm)Right. You’re going to have to pay $35 a year to get your oil changed, and you’ll get a free car wash. Sounds good to me!
Going back to the gist of the article, I think the forecasters were basing their sales predictions on BEVs and PHEVs.
With EREVs, it’s a whole new ballgame. 80% or more of your gasoline consumption is eliminated, and you can still haul off and drive across the country when ever you want! That’s huge gas savings with no compromises. The masses will embrace EREVs in a big way…
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Aug 1st, 2009 (4:15 pm)Any tax that is used to force someone to do some thing can not be “Fair” it is meant to punish someone for doing what they want to do.
Tax sould only be used raise the money needed to run the government.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (4:16 pm)I think we should file this study along side Mr. Gates prediction about computer memory. It is true not too many options will be available until 2012, and it takes about 10 years for market turnover to replace the bulk of the cars, so demand will probably build until 2022, then level off. Remember as a rule of thumb, most folks overestimate what can be accomplished in 3 years, and underestimate what can be accomplished in 10 years.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (4:17 pm)Dave G,
Is that really THE Dave G of Volt-gm.com fame, or are you just a poser. You sound just like him but we had a Statik poser here too. (lol).
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:17 pm)By the way, the oil change/car wash place in my area recycles their oil, uses rooftop solar power, and is trying to install wind power, but the town is fighting them on it:
http://www.wayneautospa.com/?p=97
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Aug 1st, 2009 (4:22 pm)Lyle: could you ask GM if they are using an Atkinson cycle ICE? It would be nice to verify this…
For those who don’t know, a 4 cycle engine:
1) draws in the air/fuel mixture
2) compresses the mixture
3) fires it up (power stroke)
4) empties the exhaust
The compression stroke (2) and power stroke (3) actually fight against each other, making the ICE somewhat inefficient.
The Atkinson cycle engine reduces this internal conflict, but at the expense of peak power. So you end up with more efficiency, but less max power.
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-2
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:22 pm)statik,
How much water is used in the processing of shale oil? I honestly don’t know the answer to that, but I’m guessing a *lot*. Since that IS just a guess I thought that I’d ask you. Oh, also, are there private medical insurance companies in Canada, or is it all Govt run?
Thanks in advance,
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:23 pm)I may be optimistic in saying the Volt’s maintenance/repair will be “dramatically lower”, but the important point is that Volt prospects should expect GM to address this issue in their marketing campaign. My understanding is that the ice/generator will be providing a relatively “average” amount of available output power after the battery SOC drops to about 30%, but that the battery itself will still take care of heavy peak power demands such as trouncing on the accelerator to pass another car. In other words, that the ice/generator will be optimized for a much more limited dynamic range or power bandwidth (so to say) than a 6 Cyl ICE as the sole power source in today’s vehicles, which must operate from about 600 to 6,000 rpms all day long.
Still another way of explaining it is that the Voltec architecture makes use of the PWM (pulse width modulation) capability of its control electronics to vary the amount of power supplied by the ice/gen (as well as the battery) to the Volt’s traction motor —and this allows the ice/gen to “loaf” much more than an ice in today’s cars ….even when driving long distances, or on mountain roads, or when rapidly accelerating/ decelerating while driving.
The result should be that the Volt’s ice will experience lower stresses on its main bearings as well as on its piston rod bearings, piston rings & valves because its loads are “averaged” (or buffered) by the Volt’s battery, which supplies peak load demands, by the action of the Volt’s control electronics. Of course, I could mistaken.
In any case, I’m sure prospective customers will ask about this and GM must therefore address it in its promotional literature if not in its overall marketing campaign.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:40 pm)Absolutely correct.
I even drew some pictures for this:
http://mysite.verizon.net/davegish/ebay_pictures/Volt_Electrical_Block_Diagram.jpg
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Aug 1st, 2009 (4:41 pm)DonC said, regarding the “Journey of a thousand miles quote…” “Yes, you’re absoutely right. You have to start somewhere (funny you should be quoting Mao’s”
——————————————————
Confucius said it about a thousand years before Mao.
Must of started his journey earlier.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:41 pm)jdsv,
“Thankfully, one cannot be literally addicted to gasoline. For this reason and others (% of people using gasoline), such a tax could be called a bit more ‘fair’.”
If I have a marginal income and drive a clunker (pretty common scenario, well, like me), any increase in taxes, including the Cap and Tax ones (passed on through higher prices of goods) are still going to hurt. I don’t think I’d see much fairness there. And if less gas is used, they’ll hike the tax on electricity to recoup the lost income from gasoline. No?
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (4:46 pm)Thanks for reminding us of these excellent graphic depictions, Dave!* They certainly help illustrate the point that the Volt’s ice/gen maintenance should be less than that of today’s automobile engines.
*Awards Dave G a gold star! (or should I call it the “Frank Weber Award”?)
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Aug 1st, 2009 (4:56 pm)“Maybe 10 minutes every 6 months. ”
_________________________
Ok. You run the genset after 6 months of sitting and I can all but guarantee you you’re going have issues. Especially if you’re in an environment that has lots of day to day temperature change, sub freezing temps, humidity.
Potential problems:
- relays are going to stick
- sensors won’t read correctly
- gaskets will be dried out
- cylinder corrosion will be setting in
- there will be water in the oil
- grease will have coagulated
- belts can develop flat spots,
- – - these are just some of the issues on “my planet”
GM will have to address this issue in some fashion. (i.e. have the genset run every so often, weather you’ve run the Lithium pack down, or not.)
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Aug 1st, 2009 (5:01 pm)My thoughts exactly. It took ten years for a relatively simple and inexpensive design like prius to catch on. Still the economics dont work for most of people. The battery needs a major improvement before EVolution happens.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (5:06 pm)Why would you want to read the bill? Congress doesn’t.
(kidding, but not really, most of them don’t read what they’re voting on)
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-1207
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Aug 1st, 2009 (5:09 pm)Thats correct, Since the Forecasters have predicated everything correct so far, this has to correct too.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (5:19 pm)Holy Crow. I didn’t see you as such a radical. As might be expected, that bill isn’t going to see a vote. Maybe they should concentrate on making it mandatory that if a Bill hasn’t been read, the congressman/person isn’t allowed to vote on it. A shame really.
Vote them all out – both sides – “new broom” and all that.
And now back to the Volt….(or not).
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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Aug 1st, 2009 (5:22 pm)It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out we are going to have problems in coming years as global oil production has slowed down since 2005 and despite record setting oil prices. The world is at the point where our global economy can only grow as much as efficiency can improve.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (5:32 pm)I agree. EVs will be extremely niche. I would estimate that even with the temporary federal subsidies, we will not see the price of an EV-100 fall much below $25,000, and you can get a pretty decent Prius for that price with no range problems. After hearing Lyle’s range issues in his Mini-EV after just a few weeks, I guarantee EV batteries are not ready for prime time. He could barely could go to work and back on his 26 mile each way commute without AC and other ammenities.
The Volt is expensive, and probably won’t take the country by storm for a while (although I’m sure a lot of people will wish they could afford one), but it’s about the only vehicle that a reasonable American would want to have if they knew the reality of range issues.
I am as big of a fan of EVs as anyone, ask anyone that knows me, but I personally will be sticking with EREV and not buying a BEV until they have at least 200 real miles worth of range and there are quick charging stations dotting the country, at least one every 20 miles or so along main interstate routes and it only takes 20 minutes at most to charge that 200 miles battery.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (5:43 pm)Tagamet: I flabbergasted to learn that all the dealerships you went to had no clue what a Volt was. Somehow I’m not surprised, but very disappointed.
What does this say? It says the majority of car dealerships are about one thing, the sale, sell you a car you need, sell you a car you don’t need, but damn it, sell you a car. “What will it take to get you to buy the car today, sir”. “Don’t order a car sir, buy one of our lot, we have a HUGE selection”. They could care less about the product they sell, they just want to make their commission an charge their customers double market rates for ‘factory authorized’ repairs. They are not car enthusiasts, they could be selling women’s shoes for all they care. Maybe 1000 dealerships NEED to close if they can’t even keep up or read trade journals in their own industry.
I hope G.M. execs are reading this blog and realize their dealership network needs a 5000 gallon enema.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (5:45 pm)Astroboy: I totally disagree, I don’t know ANYBODY that would buy a car that cannot be refueled quickly on the road. Pure electric cars won’t sell until they can go 350 REAL miles on a charge, AND they can be re-charged in 5 minutes, AND charging stations are as common as gas stations.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (5:57 pm)Solo,
I’m admittedly from an undeveloped country (Pencil-vania), or close to it. We do have a Chevy dealer here in town, but I drove two 60 mile round trip rides to “the big cities” of Williamsport and State College (a frequent occurrence) . The latter is the home of Penn State, so I’d hoped that they might be a LITTLE more aware. Maybe more of the word will get out as the release dates grow nearer.
The shiny side of the coin is that I should be at the top of 6 dealers waiting lists (assuming that they didn’t run my identification info through their shredders.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (6:12 pm)Statk,
I sure do see maintenance costs to be very close to only ten percent (MAX) of what is the current average for ICE vehicles.
No brake jobs ever, unless there is impact damage.
No transmission fluid changes, and no transmission to go bad.
No tune-ups. No coolant changes for the very low runtime hours ICE. I think that the fleet average for all Volts for engine run time will be something like seven percent of an ICE.
No A/C work because there is not a belt-driven compressor. No A/C seasonal recharges, (my Element must be serviced every 18,000 miles each Spring, although it is an excellent
“freeze your butt quick” high air volume too).
(Last month was the hottest month EVER in Austin, with the average high temperature of 102 degrees, including the “cool” days that were at 98 degrees). That 102 degrees was a half of a degree average higher than the previous record set in 1860. A half of a degree record is a very big deal. A record broken with a tenth of a degree would be bad enough.
So, I really hope that we have something like a 1.75 ton capacity AC in the Volt or better).
No Engine air filters, because of very low runtime engine hours.
No fuel injection cleanings if you use the best gasoline. (I like Shell 87).
No emissions systems problems as likely, due to a small fraction of the ICE run time. (But when it does run, it may need to be able to run for at least 8 miles to light up the catalytic converter to clear hydrocarbon buildup there, and, heat up the exhaust hot enough to purge a lot of moisture).
Cabin filters, wiper blades, maybe a small light bulb here and there over the years,
There is just not going to be maintenance work out there from Volts.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (6:26 pm)I’d like to know what their predictions were about DVD vs. VHS
NPNS!
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-1
Aug 1st, 2009 (6:49 pm)Lol, DaveG.
Isn’t that always the case. I think the word ‘wind turbine’ immediate triggers town council meetings in all muncipalities within 50 miles.
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-1
Aug 1st, 2009 (6:56 pm)Hey Nasa…I took the afternoon ‘off’ so I haven’t been around to hop in to this one. I really didn’t intend to spawn the mother of all maintenance threads.
I agreed with all your points, and I think it very well could be cheaper in the end…I was just saying that maybe ‘dramatically lower’ is not the most probably outcome with all the unkowns (you know how those creep up on you when you doing something for the first time, heeh)
/thats all I was trying to say
//have a good one my friend
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (7:19 pm)When DVD players were $900 demand was pretty weak (think $40K Volt). When they dropped to $100 bucks they took off.
Price is the #1 factor for mass adoption of a new technology.
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+2
Aug 1st, 2009 (7:25 pm)And how much of the oil we burn is produced domestically? I’ll give you a hint, American oil production been declining since the US peaked in 1970, while demand has been growing. We import the difference.
So, giving credit to Regan for “solving” the oil crisis is seems more than a stretch. World-market conditions changed.
Here’s some detail:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.png
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/Hubbert_US_high.svg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/USEnFlow02-quads.gif
(If you don’t like Wikipedia, these graphs are available in other places.)
If you think we can replace 60% of the US’s daily oil consumption by “drilling baby drilling”, that’s fine. But the numbers make the problem look much bigger than that, to me.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (7:32 pm)I probably wouldn’t have gone with using absolutes. It makes it less likely to get sensible retorts, because it shows/projects a inflexibility of your position and a closed mind. And 10% is ridiculous number…sorry to be so blunt, but there it is.
In 1960, the average maintenance & repair of a car over its lifetime was $8,053, in the 70s it fell to $7,770…in 2000, it was $6,880
If you think all your going to spend over the lifetime of the Volt, on a unproven, highly technical/complex, ICE/lithium powered vehicle is $688, you are….well I won’t even make a pithy analogy because you know where I am headed.
Without getting into ALL the things that could go wrong (and the fact you are going to have to do a pack swap at 150,000ish miles for probably $3,000+…even if battery cost utopia becomes a reality), there is no way GM doesn’t have Volt owners coming in for ‘maintenance’ at least once a year, ICE running or not…no OEM is going to say it is ok to go more than a year without a oil change/filter and routine maintenance. Thats your $688 blown over 15 years right there.
I’m not saying it is impossible for the EREV to be cheaper, if everything works like a song and has built near flawlessly from the first…but it certainly will not be a huge factor. And 10% is far too ambitious…even if you NEVER have any issues at all, you totally underestimated the OEM’s greed in this situation as compared to your cost projection.
I’d say GM’s suggested OEM maintenance/service by itself on the Volt is close to 25% of the total cost of vehicle maintenance/repair on a standard small ICE sedan. And because the Volt…is the Volt. You are trapped with GM…you aren’t going to be able to take it in for diagnostic work and maintenance at ‘Joe’s Autobody,’ whereas the average aged ICE is not going back to the OEM for service/maintenance/repair of any kind.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (7:40 pm)The oil in ANWR is significant, but it’s not like drilling there is going to change the world.
According to Wikipedia and the USGS, ANWR has 5.7 billion barrels and 16.0 billion barrels .
Sounds like a lot, right? Except that world oil consumption is around 86 million barrels per day. So, ANWR contains between 66 and 186 days of world oil consumption, or between 271 and 761 days of US oil consumption.
So, yes, it’s a significant amount of oil. But realistically, it can only push the prices a few points one way or another. It’s not like we (the US) could stop importing oil, or make dramatic changes in US energy policy.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (7:41 pm)I was 0 for 3 at my dealers too…I didn’t even bother to leave my name with a salesperson. Actually, 1 did know…but they claimed it was only a show car and would never be built.
(That was Ontario Motor Sales if anyone at GM is listening in and can slap their wrists, lol)
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Aug 1st, 2009 (7:44 pm)Statik,
If you listen real close you can hear the OMS salesperson slitting his wrists.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!****************NPNS
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-2
Aug 1st, 2009 (8:03 pm)Well I was being mostly sarcastic about using our oil sands. It is a really bad scene all things considered.
Just as FYI…you need a lot of hot water to get bitumen from the oil sand in surface mining, and even more using steam (CSS). There is actually a process that uses very little water, know as Alberta Taciuk Process (or ATP)…this process is not used commercial yet (that I know of).
And yes, there are private medical insurance companies in Canada, lol…and no, you should never watch anything ABC and John Stosel puts out, that was total BS, lol.
You still need private medical insurance here if you want coverage for routine trips to the dentist (non essential cleanups, etc)…and your not covered for glasses either. I haven’t insured myself in quite a while, but some of my employees have taken advantage of group rates over the past, cost is about $70/person on average (this can vary depending on specifics of what you want covered of course).
Seniors however get coverage of dental and optical (provided they are in the low to moderate income bracket..thats under $42k a year). I believe (don’t quote me, I’m not a senior) they get up to $5,000 over 5 years for dental and $250ish every 3 years to blow on glasses.
Sidenote: My parents haven’t had any 3rd party coverage at all for close to 20 years now. Lots of problems…no bills of significance yet.
(See the old thread if you want my full retort to Stossel, lol)
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:31 pm)Koz – In college I hardly ran my engine … if I ever did drive, it would only be on for a minute or so. (Moving across the street to avoid parking restrictions) I’d open the oil cap, and see this frothy white gunk inside. My Dad explained if I didn’t run the engine long enough to warm up the oil to operating temperature, the stuff in the crankcase wouldn’t burn off. Or something to that effect.
I’m sure the Volt runs the engine every once in a while if only to avoid this kind of problem.
(I didn’t notice any harm from my abuse, it was an indestructible 1980 Honda Civic, nothing hurt it. Except for that couch falling off of a pickup)
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Aug 1st, 2009 (8:36 pm)Didn’t even bother reading it …. it’s from the DETROIT NEWS… the worlds most EV negative publication.
If these pr*%ks have a way of predicting the future, lets check their back issues to see if they predicted either $150 a barrell oil, oil prices crashing or the bank crash.
If they did why are they writting trash about EVs? They should hot foot it down to the local dog track and clean up…
Morons!
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:08 pm)Here’s an idea. Sell those Camaros at MSRP and see how many more can fly out the door. Volume sales = manufacturer preferences and market presence. Fair deals to the public = repeat business. People appreciate being treated fairly or even as though they got a deal. If you forgo the mark up on the Camaro, the guy buying it might just come back to buy an HHR (that you have a hard time marking up these days) for his kid to go to college, or an Impala for his wife. Then there’s always the possibility that he will come back to trade on the convertible when that comes out or a Corvette. Ya never know.
Just an idea.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:11 pm)A new battery, plus shocks, brakes, yet another set of tires, and a set of ball joints. Maybe another set of brushes for the electric motor, if it has brushes. Oh, and an interior detail, to get the coffee and milkshake stains out of the upholstery.
I didn’t say that an electric car wouldn’t be an improvement from the maintenance perspective — but the “no engine maintenance” picture isn’t the whole story.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:13 pm)I agree. When there are cheap ($20k and below) EV’s (of any type), people will be aiming at those, rather than ICE’s. I think the “experts” are way off on this one!
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:18 pm)This will always happen because as we continue to drain our geology we have to go further out and deeper down. The EROI continues to drop and thus the cost goes up. We can’t change that (if adjusted costs are used – deflation might make the U.S. dollar worthless). Extracting usable crude from tar sands is far more expensive that it was to pump sweet crude from Saudi Arabia super giants. The EROI for the super giants was 100:1. The EROI for tar sands is about 4:1. This cost increases cannot be reversed and cannot be dismissed.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (9:18 pm)Speaking of Nissan and its decision to go the BEV route, the company has announced its new BEV, the “Leaf”. Looks nice. 24 kWh battery pack. 100 mile range using USLA4, which is the old City (aka very mild). But it looks nice, the LED headlights are a nice touch, and honestly Nissan has done a much better job of generating excitement with the web site than GM has with the Volt. Lots of pics and info at the site:
http://www2.nissan-zeroemission.com/EN/
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:28 pm)Spoken like a true Republican who has no clue about the oil industry. lol. Hate to tell you this, peak oil is here. How much of an effect will a few million barrels of crude make in a global market that uses 83 (use to be 86) mbd? Canada might get to 4-5 mbd from their tar sands by 2020 or so. It’s but a tiny drop in the bucket that will be sucked up by many people around the world that want to drive (sometimes for the first time). We would be lucky if this extra Canadian capacity will make up for all of the other countries that have already peaked and are in irreversible decline (like the U.S., Mexico, Russia, UK, etc.).
Yes, we have trillions of barrels left and yes we have tar sands and shale. What they don’t tell you is that it’s all about the economics of extraction. Cheap oil is over, deal with it.
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Aug 1st, 2009 (9:51 pm)Oh yeah. We love you guys who believe every deal is shady; That it’s great to kick car dealers when their down and just trying to keep the doors open and their loyal workers employed in a down economy; And God forbid when GM actually builds a car that people will wait 10 months for and HAPPILY pay over sticker for that maybe, just maybe we can make a tiny bit more profit on because we have kids with dentist bills too.
Yeah. We love you guys too.
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+1
Aug 1st, 2009 (10:13 pm)I assume know by face as there are plenty of Volt followers here that have expressed a desire for <100 mile BEVs. I also personally know several that they would work for and EVs are not something I normally discuss other than here.
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Au