AND 
Lutz Explains Why He Unretired and is Skeptical About Hybrid Car Sales Potential
I interviewed GM vice chairman Bob Lutz at the Detroit Auto Show in January of this year. It was at that event that the Voltec-powered Cadillac Converj was first unveiled and was the same time GM was first surviving on government bailout money.
When I asked Mr. Lutz at the time whether GM would build the Converj, he replied if it were up to him they would, but due to GM’s “extreme financial stringency” at the time, they “would have to ask the federal government if the car would qualify for loan for extremely energy efficient new vehicle programs.” Yes, I detected a bit of despondency in his tone. By the end of that month he announced his retirement.
Now of course with the newborn GM, Maximum Bob is re-energized and staying to take over product development, marketing, and communications.
In a new interview with USA Today Lutz admitted his prior despair and the reason for his change of heart.
“When I made the decision to retire, I thought we’d be in bankruptcy for a long time. I thought we’d lose our freedom to design and build the products the public wants as opposed to the products the government wants to see on the road,” said the 77 year old Lutz. “I thought all of the fun is gone from the business. … But lo, and behold, the government task force were not a bunch of ogres. They were extremely helpful, and their only agenda was to make GM the best company it could be.”
Yet despite his fathering of the Volt and the clear path GM is taking to greener cars, including a new dedicated hybrid, Lutz still appears skeptical about how successful such vehicles can be.
“Other than in the media, there is not a groundswell toward green vehicles in the United States,” said Lutz. “In fact, they’re a very hard sell.”
July 18th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
He retired because he thought the company was going to be bankrupt for a long time? That sounds terrible…
I agree about the hybrids but that is only because there is a premium on them… If only they didn’t cost more… I just bought a car and it wasn’t a hybrid, even though I’m pretty gung-ho about environmentalism because it wasn’t enough bang for the buck for me.. In the end money won
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July 18th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Great to see Bob out of retirement !
“Hybrids” are a tough sell, but “Electrics” are easy to sell, just look at the wait list for the Volt at 48,000+ and growing.
NPNS !
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July 18th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
Switching first to E-85, then to a Volt and finally to a BEV may have been the smoothiest transition. I’d rather have an E-85 car then a Prius. Especially a car with an engine designed specifically for E-85. Of course the Volt is the best for the transition in the auto industry to electric.
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July 18th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
It is good to hear that Bob does not think the Govt. is the overbearing ogre that he (and I would have) assumed they would be. I hope he is not just kissing up to them when he says this.
As far as hybrid sales goes, I see the Toyota priius everywhere in the MD/DC area. They must not be too tough of a sell.
Gas will be 4 to 5 dollars per gallon again. When that happens, people will again flock to whatever vehicle is available that can save gas and is affordable. The Volt will not be this vehicle for some time to come since it has a high price. There will be a strong market for a $20,000 price range vehicle with the highest possible mileage.
For now it looks like cars like the Prius will carry this Market.
GM needs a good hybrid now while we wait for electric and EREV cars to become cheaper.
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July 18th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
I can clearly understand where Bob is on hybrids.
From my viewpoint, Voltec is 15 years ahead of the
hybrid past.
It’s really reasonable for Bob to push the future and help to economically abandon the past, as Bob knows all those detailed lessons of the past.
He is valuable in the sense also to provide critical guidance for the newer members of upper management.
I think Bob brings that energy and drive for Voltec for GM’s future, and, I think adaptability is seen there also within his achievements as well.
Adaptability is the most important thing that you need to have when you are dealing with technologies nowadays.
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July 18th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
No word about the future of the “ex” Saturn Vue 2 mode plug-in hybrid in the new GM?
http://gm-volt.com/2008/01/14/saturn-vue-plug-in-hybrid-to-begin-production-in-2010/
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July 18th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
This will refute a lot of Republican/Fox News talking points.
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July 18th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
The BAS + system should give better mileage and it wont be too expensive, perhaps GM will pair it with an Atkinson cycle ICE for further gas savings.. hopefully GM will sell lots of them.
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July 18th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
I definitely agree that hybrids are a tough sell. Especially when you design them to provide practically no discernible improvement in MPG yet jack up the price $3k or $4k.
The Volt, however, is a different experience altogether. There isn’t a single person who buys a Volt that will NOT see their MPG go up, most will see a drastic improvement.
What I see in “good times Bob” is his continued lack of vision for the goldmine he accidentally fell into with the Volt. If he has anything to do about it GM will squander the wonderful opportunity they have lucked into and will continue to dream of past glory in the internal combustion segment. Meanwhile your competitors who don’t have their head in the sand will move forward aggressively with plans for advanced plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.
Recent history should tell ya, Bob, that your glory days are over. Stop living in the past and get GM to put its eyes squarely on the future that you and all of us know is coming. The gasoline engine is dead. You have already driven GM to bankruptcy once – - are you going for number two?!?
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July 18th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
I agree. In principle they should be able to make this thing (the BAS type systems) work well. I hope they do.
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July 18th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
The problem is, Voltec will not be available to the masses for at least 4-5 years. GM is a business that needs to sell cars every year and right now they don’t really have a Prius killer on the market. GM is caught with their pants down. Waiting on Voltec and ignoring hybrids is not a good plan.
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July 18th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
(addendum to my previous post)
Put a Voltec drive system in all vehicles made by GM and you will see that hybrid is NOT a tough sell. You will dominate the auto industry again.
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July 18th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
What I see in “good times Bob” is his continued lack of vision for the goldmine he accidentally fell into with the Volt.
——–
Wow – talk about revisionist history ! Put down the hash pipe, CS – I’ll bet you rant about GM having killed the electric car, as well. History proves you wrong, even delusional.
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July 18th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Give $3500 for every hybrid car Made in the USA. Pay for it by a gas guzzler tax or a oil import tariff. And eliminate the sales tax on all hybrid cars made in the USA.
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July 18th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
You’re right, Guido. I would never say that GM killed the electric car or EV-1 and sold the NiMH battery technology to oil companies so it could never be used in a vehicle again. How stupid would I be if I did that!
And thinking that GMs market decisions could have been responsible for the company going into bankruptcy is also totally revisionist history.
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July 18th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
“As of April 2008, 591,600 Prius automobiles have been sold in North America” -http://www.drivehomesafe.com
/news/the_prius_exceeds_the_million_vehicles_sold-10.html
“Other than in the media, there is not a groundswell toward green vehicles in the United States,” said Lutz. “In fact, they’re a very hard sell.”
-B. Lutz
Bob Lutz is an utter, utter disaster for GM.
“When congress raised emission standards, we hired fifty more engineers. GM hired fifty more lawyers.”
-Soichiro Honda
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July 18th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
“If only they didn’t cost more”
So, are you willing to pay $0 pemium for any hybrid or do you mean more after factoring in gas savings, higher resale, any aplicable rebates, and any state perks?
What hybrids did you analyze? What car did you buy? What do you estimate your annual city and highway miles driven to be? How long do you intend to own the car?
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July 18th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Let me add my agreement, as well as to say that GM needs you to get both the plug-in Vue’s AND the Volt’s superb technologies into several other vehicles, so…..
WELCOME BACK, BOB! ….It’s time to Leap into action!!!
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July 18th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
“Sales of the company’s (Ford) hybrid vehicles totaled 3,649, a June
sales record and up 91 percent versus a year ago.”
-Official Ford press release, July ‘09
Meanwhile, results for other types of vehicle platforms, (from all manufacturers) are generally being trumpeted as “falling less swiftly”
Bob’s vision? More Camaros.
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July 18th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
With gas at $2.39, hybrids are a hard sell, especially when they have such a premium over the standard model.
It has been reported locally that used SUV’s are selling pretty well again. People have such short memories…… The prices are actually up, because people are not buying new cars and trading in their old vehicles. So there is kind of a shortage in used cars.
If you believe that gas prices are back down for good, then buying some huge monster vehicle to go back and forth to work is the right thing to do.
If you think that this is temporary price drop, and that gas prices will shoot back up, then a parallel hybrid is your best bet at this time.
Personally, I intend to wait for the E-REV design of the Volt. IMHO, it has the best of what is available in technology at this time – a decent AER range, no range anxiety, and good mileage once the ICE kicks in. For my next vehicle, it makes perfect sense.
NPNS
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July 18th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
Its true to sell green washed hybrids but did prius sell more than a million ? Ford Fusion is selling good ?
Good cars have always market to a block of customers. You cant sell same car to all customers.
Look at GM products :- example: do they have a minivan ? – no sliding doors
Lets make good cars first, they will sell them self. From horse mouth : camaro didn’t have any other adv than transformers movie.
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July 18th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
From the thread, Lutz said:
“When I made the decision to retire, I thought we’d be in bankruptcy for a long time. I thought we’d lose our freedom to design and build the products the public wants as opposed to the products the government wants to see on the road,” said the 77 year old Lutz. “I thought all of the fun is gone from the business. … But lo, and behold, the government task force were not a bunch of ogres. They were extremely helpful, and their only agenda was to make GM the best company it could be.”
—-
Lutz translater on:
“I’m here as long as times are good and I can have fun…otherwise, not so much…even if I was the man most responsible for running the ship aground. Now I got a even bigger bag of money to spend, with even less restriction than before…and I’m just the guy that can do it.”
…friggin’ Bob Lutz
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July 18th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
I might be misreading but you seem a little angry there… Well I’m willing to pay a little extra, but I really don’t drive enough to break even for at least 5 years, if gas stays under $3. At that point I hope to trade in for a Volt (I generally don’t like to buy first generation products). So I’m just saying I’m waiting for the day when hybrids cost less from day one, no minimum-mileage-before-break-even necessary because I think that is the point when hybrids will become a big success.
One of the things that bugs me most about hybrids is their lack of power. The two hybrids according to reviews that address this problem are the Altima hybrid and Fusion hybrid. Both were more than I wanted to pay for because I just wanted a car to hold me out until I can get a plug-in. I ended up with a 2006 TSX, since there were no used Fusions and the Altima had terrible visibility, which made me feel unsafe.
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July 18th, 2009 at 11:26 pm
Its a Lutz thread, so this is as good a place as any.
I thought the other day when he saved the G8, that was a pretty decent move, because it is actually a really good product. Then when he decided that it probably shouldn’t be a captive import from Australia, and it would be better as a North America built Chevy Caprice, and sell a ton to fleets and police services, and to give people something to buy when their Impalas go all Epsilon II on them….well that was actually a great move.
Well…after 4 days or so, he flip flopped, or more likely someone at GM got ahold oh him (*cough* Fritz *cough*) and made him make down.
From Fastlane:
———–
“It Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time…”
By Bob Lutz
GM Vice Chairman
OK, I have some late-breaking news for you from the world of GM, where things are indeed moving quickly, and what I’m about to say is proof.
In fact, we’re moving so fast, we’re going back in time to, oh, about four or five days ago, when the Pontiac G8 was going away and was not going to become a new Chevrolet Caprice.
And therein lies the news: The G8 will not be a Caprice after all. I’d mentioned it, and said we were studying it, giving it a serious look, because a car like the G8 was just too good to waste.
That’s all still true. But I have to say that, with my new “marketing” hat on, upon further review and careful study, we simply cannot make a business case for such a program. Not in today’s market, in this economy, and with fuel regulations what they are and will be.
I know that we’ll get a lot of complaints from G8 lovers, because I’m one of them. And the product guy in me is complaining as loudly as anyone. But the marketing guy says there’s no case. With budgets being what they are for the time being, the resources must be allocated elsewhere.
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/archives/2009/07/it_seemed_like_a_good_idea_at_the_time%E2%80%A6.html
You were so close to doing the right thing Bob, unfortunately my lone ‘moment of praise’ for you, I have to retract.
/how will he go on? lol
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July 18th, 2009 at 11:40 pm
Put a Voltec drive system in all vehicles made by GM and you will see that hybrid is NOT a tough sell. You will dominate the auto industry again.
****************************************************************************
Wow, and they call ME an optimist. The lifetime of the current fleet just being replaced will take decades – and that’s assuming incredible output of plugins and widespread acceptance.
Be well,
Tagamet
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July 18th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
Sad to hear all the Lutz bashing.
Be well,
Tagamet
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July 18th, 2009 at 11:47 pm
You gonna build the Volt or not Bob?
That last sentence makes me wonder.
=D~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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July 18th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
If gas stays as cheap as it is the EV won’t make it out of the gate. I don’t think that will happen but I have no idea what the price curve will look like. Cheap gas prices kills everything. Maybe there are a few corporations out there that are counting on that?
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July 18th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
What premium? I’m seeing great efficiency from a competitively priced hybrid…
54.2 MPG average as of 3,500 summer miles.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:04 am
I live in an ex-GM town.A GM foundry closed about 5yrs ago.The people here that have purchased the Prius are the older genset,(BOB’s age) that grew up on 30cent a gallon gas.They know gas will fluctuate its way to five dollars a gallon since the oil companies got a taste of $4 gas.At trade in time if gas is back to 4-5 bucks a gallon they can get the newest high miler AND get a good trade in value.Smart people that older generation……….
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:19 am
The only products Lutz cares about are the high-end, high-performance ones. He’s an inappropriate leader for a company that needs to offer a wide range of products.
He’s perfect to run Tesla or BMW.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:21 am
Not decades — car companies don’t sell used cars.
The number you want to look at isn’t life-of-car, it’s the turnover rate. New cars turnover around every 5.3 years.
So within six years, if GM has the product everyone wants, that’s when sales take off.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:28 am
It’s much deserved. Bankrupt Bob is back inna houzzzze….
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:39 am
waiting list proves nothing – its costs ZERO to get in or out.
I would be surprised to see even 1% of the suscribers actually buying Volt.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:52 am
Lutz should retire for good IMHO. Give some air to more capable and accountable leaders with vision. GM deserves it… Or not? Probably not with the same old farts on board.
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:14 am
Put a Voltec drive system in all vehicles made by GM and you will see that hybrid is NOT a tough sell. You will dominate the auto industry again.
_______________________
They’re trying to get the price down and the product ultra refined by gen 3. What you’re suggesting will take time. A lot of time IMO, and if GM tries to force it on the market (it took ten years for the Prius to evolve into the franchise’s category killer) it would be the lead in to the GM bankruptcy, part two.
Having a lot of cars that seem like great news at first but, ultimately people are not buying en mass (Malibu Hybrid, Saturn Sky) will kill GM’s ability to turn their fortunes around in the future once and for all. JMO at this point.
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:17 am
GM then went on to pioneer the commercially viable catalytic converter that has evolved to be standard equipment in all new vehicles.
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:25 am
And I’m 77 years old, I can retire any second it’s in my or my families best interests. Do you really think I’m here to be dragged through a month old bag of crap every workday to go home and take out my frustrations on my wife and grand kids after several great careers, working straight through for more than 50 of the last 77 years?
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:30 am
“He retired because he thought the company was going to be bankrupt for a long time? That sounds terrible…”
Not really. He can essentially retire any time he wants given his career, there’s no reason for him to stay at a job he doesn’t enjoy. I stayed at my last job about 3 years too long, and the ulcers and heartburn still haven’t completely cleared up.
The fact that he came back is encouraging for GM’s future.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:35 am
Lutz loves to develop cars he thinks are cool. This is why he was instrumental in turning around GM’s product portfolio, and it’s why he wasn’t interested in hanging around if GM wasn’t going to develop cars he wanted to develop. That’s not any different than anyone else who has decided to find a different job.
I just don’t see Lutz as being instrumental in running the shop aground. Quite the opposite. In fact I don’t see Wagoner as being responsible for running the ship aground. I see him more as not being to take the dramatic action needed to prevent the ship from running aground. Maybe that’s too fine a line but there seems to be a difference between messing things up and not being able to fix the mess.
What’s interesting is how surprised Lutz was by the Auto Task Force. Seems like he underestimated the kid with the big ears.
//I’m with you on the G8. Too bad.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:35 am
I’m not sure ignoring 2.5% of the US market is going to cost many execs sleep at night. Generation 1 Volt will sell to early adopters looking for something “new”. I expect by the third generation Volt, it’ll be competitive with more conventional power-trains.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:36 am
The Republican/Fox News brigade have not demonstrated that facts will alter their talking points in any noticeable fashion.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:41 am
Green cars sell fine. Three examples are the Civic, Metro, and the Prius.
It has been mentioned MANY times here before, but I’ll say it again. Up to this time green cars have NOT been fun to drive. 0-60 in 11 seconds combined with a cramped driving cabin just doesn’t do it for most people.
Now, with the Volt, we have a potential for 100+ mpg AND a very real fun factor. 0-60 acceleration around 8.5 seconds.The drivers cabin is similar in size to a BMW or an Accord.
Don’t forget these factors when juggling potential Volt sales numbers.
=D~
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:44 am
Yes, but that’s over 10 years, and is a minuscule fraction of the cars sold in this country during that time period.
When hybrids account for 10% of all sales in this country, you might be onto something… at the moment, they’re about a quarter of that.
Bob Lutz has started the Volt when he did, because by the time the market will *really* be ready for it– it’ll be ready, and affordable. Bob Lutz, pink tie and all, along with Ed Wellburn, will go down as two of the biggest reasons why GM survived.
Funny how with all those engineers, Honda still produced a hybrid that flopped. And when Clarkson and Consumer Reports are both in agreement, it’s a good chance that the Insight will flop this time, too.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:48 am
Meanwhile, the Camaro sold 9,320 units in the month of June. Ford moved 7,632 Mustangs in the same time period. That’s just a hair under 17,000 muscle cars sold in one month.
To be fair, the V6 Camaro only gets 7 mpg less than the Ford Fusion on the highway.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:51 am
I think he’s wrong about the groundswell of support for green vehicles. It’s definitely there. He just keeps missing this particular trend, for whatever reason.
But he’s right that hybrids are a tough sell — unless you get them right. Honda has failed miserably with the Insight. Toyota has hit a home run with the Prius. At the moment the problem for Toyota isn’t that it can’t sell enough Priuses, it’s that it can’t make enough of them. The factory in Japan is running flat out and there is still a backlog of orders. And let’s face it, the Prius is not a great car to drive and it’s nothing special to look at.
I think this may happen with the Volt. Henderson has said that he wants to see 14K before 2012. Unless the price is much higher than they’ve suggested so far, that’s not a lot of vehicles given what I see the demand being.
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:31 am
The Pius can sell w/o a rebate and so could BAS, just not as $3500 greenwashing option. Remember there were/are rebates of up to $3500 for hybrids. GM is spreading these out over two many vehicles and programs, without any real commitment to one to build volume and reduce cost. They are, or at Bob Lutz is, stuck in the same mentality that hybrids should be a value add upcharge that carries a signifcant premium like going from a G8 base V6 model to loaded V8. GM needs to commit to technology that they can drive costs down with volume so they can add “apppropriate” value. GM has done a good job of commiting to Voltec thus far. Hopefully, this is a sincere commitment and they will see it through to volume production. They have stated a comitment to BAS+ and two-mode in their business plan for government loans. Quite frankly, Bob Lutz’s comments are at odds with this plan.
For “appropriate” application of BAS, it needs to be implemented in models that make sense. They put it in the Malibu, Vue, and Aura. Only the Vue made sense and they only put it in very limited production. Dealers didn’t have this model readily available for test drives and delivery times were very long. Maibu and Aura are mid-sized sedans with medium picing and reasonable fuel economy in standard versions. Hybrids advantage is in city driving, not highway driving. They should pick a market that is heavily weighted to city driving (e.g. taxis and soccer moms) and strategically address it.
Also. for the lower end BAS, they should put it in the highest mileage model that can carry the premium. Using myelf as an example: I wanted the highest mileage vehicle that best met my needs. I think there are plenty of buyers with this mndset. The Vibe did this and gets basically the same mileage as the BAS Malibu. If they offered the Vibe with a BAS option that got 30/33mpg, I would have gotten it if it netted out to <$2500 premium after rebates. Similarly, I think models like the Cobalt and upcoming Cruze would also benefit from BAS. On the other hand, I think models like the Aveo are too low end. Ultimately, the mileage benefits of the curent genration of BAS probably justify @$1500 premium in the mass market with today’s consumer mindset. With a long term marketing strategy of engraining all of the benefits of hybrids in the cosumer mindset, today’s BAS could carry a higher pemium of perhaps $2k.
I’m fine with the plug-in rebat, although that should have been for the first 500k vehicles total from all mfg instead of 250k for each mfg (IMO). We should have slowly stepped in a gas tax years ago to encourage alternatives and fund some oil’s “soft” costs as well as alternative adoption programs.
Sheesh. I’ve rambled a bit here but basically if GM commits to selling EV’s (hybrids, EREV’s, and othewise) in volume, appopriately targets the right audience for each product, and markets properly they will be successful.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:19 am
or imported from China
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:27 am
wait list proves that 48,000+ people have taken the time to say they want an Electric Vehicle, not a hybrid.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:31 am
You can always get a Cruz and pretend it is a Volt , the look the same from the front .
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:54 am
You can always get a Versa and pretend it’s a Cruz.
Or a Rio and pretend it’s a Versa.
Or a Miata and pretend it’s a Vette.
=D~
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:27 am
Cruz interior…
http://garfwod.250free.com/cruz-interior.jpg
=D~
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:59 am
They have to stop calling these “green” cars. I happen to believe global warming is real, but there many others who don’t, perhaps half the people on this forum. Peak oil is real, and most people realize oil won’t last forever. Even if oil didn’t run out in the world, it has essentially run out in the U.S., so we have to import 2/3 of what we use, which means countries like Iran, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Russia all get more powerful, while the U.S. gets weaker. And even if that doesn’t motivate you, there are a lot of people who just hate the big oil companies and want to stick it to them any way they can. Last but not least, how about the link between oil money and terrorism? So let’s stop calling these “green” or “ecological” cars, and start calling them “energy independent” cars.
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:23 am
I agree, Dave, the American driver does not want to go from his/her SUV or minivan into a subcompact. What they really want is a similar vehicle with better gas mileage.
However, many people who had large SUV’s in the past are now turning to the smaller CUV’s. People with larger cars will likely consider mid-size.
But all-in-all, people want what they want. If you look at the cost of ownership for a car, gasoline at $4 per gallon, with a 25 mpg car, fuel cost is $0.16 per mile. The government rate for mileage reimbursement is ~$0.50 per mile. So vehicle price, interest, insurance, maintenance, excise tax, and all the other costs associalted with car ownership still constitute the bulk of the cost per mile.
The question becomes how much extra cost will the hybrid option cost relative to its savings? I think this is the point that Bob is trying to make.
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:26 am
RIGHT ON DAVE G.!!!
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:32 am
rvd
,so you would bet that only 480 out of 48000 would buy. I suggest you stay out of Vagas.
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:35 am
Capt. Jack…
Bob Lutz and you can probably can agree on this direction for Marketing. From the linked article:
(Regarding Lutz)
“Once he spent the bulk of an interview bemoaning the loss of scantily clad models at auto shows, pointing out that at one time, the Paris auto show was filled with topless models.”
And I don’t think he’s talking about convertibles!
So we need the Volt in a nice setting (like Tahiti) and some gorgeous topless native girl gets out and leans on the car. Then the narrator uses a phrase that a boss of mine used to say to us young engineers,
“If it’s got tits or tires, it’s going to get you in trouble.”
Then I would follow that with, “But of course, life wouldn’t be nearly as fun without a little trouble now and then.”
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:48 am
Still coming for my daily Volt fix.
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:49 am
After that remark I have changed my mind. You should sell everything and GO TO VAGAS.
Smile
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:52 am
Hey Dave G.
When we were warned and warned and warned years ago that if oil went up, “it would ruin the American economy”.
So, oil executives motivated the people in power to go to war with made-up reasons.
Deceitful reasons.
Unlawful reasons.
Corporate profiteering reasons protected completely by the “corporate veil” with absolutely not any legal accountabilities.
But oil went up anyway just before the last presidential election, (as it did at the previous 3 or so). (Was that timing deliberate or somehow artificially-triggered to somehow “teach” us something?).
So, in any case, we were “taught” many a lesson anyway when the price skyrocketed last year.
Price wise or otherwise “shorting the supply”, you have to consider that somewhere in the world petro-greed would have kicked in anyway, and, we might have had the deep recession a lot earlier. That might have driven down demand and collapsed the price earlier for a non-violent “free market solution”. We might have been on the road to electrification of the auto earlier.
“Free Market Forces”, I was told, “do a lot of corrections”.
(As I was admonished that from two different very arrogant “pro petro-warlord private contractors” repeatedly, as if it (the war) were a god, to the point of ad-nausea. And, as if the price of oil itself, going up, was unAmerican, and was a cost-justification to go to war, as perverse as they were for their twisted criminal reasons[sic]). Suspension of the Constitution occurred, and, parts of that attack on our Constitution are still wrongfully in place.
Privacy is still trampled by corporate America as an accepted practice even today, as if it is their God-given right to not only trample on your rights to privacy, but, if you do not acquiesce to the abandonment of your Constitutional rights as liquidated by the previous administration, then, you somehow may be made to be penalized in the most underhanded of ways.
“You wouldn’t believe what’s going on over there”. “They don’t even have roofs on their houses”, that “private contractor” (out of Camp Mabry here in Austin) continued. (This was several years ago.)
That arrogance was so deeply ingrained into that right wing “private contractor” to the extent that he was inconguent for the fact that it was American bombs that blew the tops of those houses in the first place!!
The sickening and Constitutionally-criminal methods that petro industries utilize to get what they want must be moderated intensely, and, their unaccountable “informal interest groups” and formal “private contractors” contracted apparently through our own military, need to re-establish a true grip on reality ASAP.
Dan Petit
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July 19th, 2009 at 8:27 am
DonC
Doesn’t a groundswell of support imply that pent up demand would overlook some shortcomings? I don’t think many people wait for the “perfect” vehicle (though the Volt had better be “close”).
I agree that demand will be there, but it’ll take quite a while (after the initial surge of advocates – us) for widespread demand OR availability.
JMO,
Be well,
Tagamet
/no mention of Bob’s tie yet?
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:25 am
“They’re trying to get the price down.”
That is exactly what mass production of the Voltec drive system will do. Have you heard of economies of scale.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:27 am
From my viewpoint, Voltec is 15 years ahead of the hybrid past.
————————————————————-
Too bad the Volt will be 15 years ahead on price also.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:34 am
Sounds like the same Lutz for the supposedly new GM. I think that the new GM is taking the wrong kind of risk by bringing him back. And, this interview proves it.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:40 am
You expect one vehicle model from one car company to capture 10% of the market?!? That’s your benchmark for success? Who has that chart of car makers and their sales by model. It shows the Prius is one of Toyota’s top selling models. Toyota proved that mass production of hybrid vehicles is PROFITABLE.
GM, on the other hand, says “hey, we don’t want to make a profit” and wants to make hybrid a four-letter word (see the idiocy?) and continues to make product and marketing decisions that could not help but thwart and hinder hybrid sales. When you plan to FAIL and you do everything you can to ensure that you FAIL at a certain endeavor – what do you expect as an outcome?
GM board members: Put Lutz back into his cage and start LEADING the auto industry again, instead of cutting off a market segment that has ALREADY proven to be profitable.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:41 am
The Chevy Volt is coming out at the end of next year. Production will be ramped up quickly over the following year.
So that’s about 2 years before the “masses” can buy one, not “at least 4-5 years.”
You underestimate the ability of Americans and American business to change when the need arises. We have a history of doing so.
You’ll see.
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:04 am
While yes, the initial price concerns are a stopping point for most potential buyers, there are very good aspects for an initially somewhat higher cost of a Volt net of cost assistance incentives, etc. (the most efficient ways to help get it going).
No entirely new set of technologies would, should, or could cost the exact same thing as old technologies as measured in those 15 year old pre-inflation dollars.
If some accounting majors did the math for what the Volt will do for us in just saving gasoline alone over the ten year battery warranty, that is SIXTEEN THOUSAND DOLLARS at a $2.85 cost of gasoline. So, subtracting that, you have this technology FAR FAR CHEAPER over the 10 years, if you do the simple math for just the gasoline savings.
As well as that, and, in addition to, for just the sticker price if you adjusted for inflation from 15 years ago.
The really really crazy thing about all this is that other OEM’s just are not “getting it”, to their eventual widespread loss of market share as Voltec developmental-costs become mostly-absorbed by the initial buyers (who deserve to get help for just helping get Voltec “on the road”).
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:07 am
“Yet despite his fathering of the Volt and the clear path GM is taking to greener cars, including a new dedicated hybrid, Lutz still appears skeptical about how successful such vehicles can be.”
Has anyone heard anything about a “new dedicated hybrid?” Which Hybrid power train will it have? BAS+? That does not make sense, since that can bolt on many GM engines. FWD two mode? Certainly a possiblity. EREV? I doubt it.
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:14 am
Huh, I’m a member of the public, but until the Volt, The GM core brands weren’t designing any products that I wanted to buy…
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:19 am
The 2010 Camaro compares quite favorably against the 2010 Mustang. It gets better highway mileage (3 MPG diff. which is over 10%, 26 Mustang vs 29 Camaro). Camaro also has more horsepower.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/03/16/2010-camaro-takes-advantage-of-six-speed-for-29-mpg-highway-rati/
Camaro is $2k more on the low end but $2k LESS than the mustang on the high end loaded model.
The Camaro is one kick-a$$ performance vehicle, there is no doubt. But comparing Camaro to the Fusion Hybrid is a red herring or apples/oranges thing.
MPG for 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid: 41 City/36 Highway
MPG for 2010 Camaro: 17 City/29 Highway with a manual transmission. The automatic (also a six-speed) bumps the city number up to 18 mpg
That’s a 140% improvement in city MPG and 24% highway MPG in favor of the Fusion Hybrid.
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:21 am
Oh, I get it …. Obama is really INVESTING all our grandchildren’s money in all those subsidies for illegal aliens ! What a concept !
I’ll bet that sends a tingle down YOUR leg, as well as Chis Mathews and Keith Olbermans!
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:25 am
Don’t let the fact that NOBODY wanted to lease the EV-1 taint your perspective !
Of course, the fact that Lutz was the primary driver for the Volt shouldn’t taint your perspective, either. Let’s salute Toyota, instead, who have badmouthed the technology every step of the way. Very insightful.
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:31 am
NICE GOING LYLE !!!!!
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2007/11/meet-the-blogge/comment-page-1/#comment-62319
A must read for everybody .
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:31 am
My admiration for Mr. Lutz probably reflects everyone else’s here. The only constant though I don’t believe Bob Lutz has right is this is often mentioned by him as sold as a Green car. The Chevy Volt is an American Independence car to me. Independence from foreign oil, which if the military, which I retired from the Air Force is equated into costs, puts the cost of a gallon of gas much closer to $10 per gallon. The rest of the world doesn’t pay, because by our taking on the cop/police role there, we absorb the cost and subsidize our competitors while the Middle-east in turn despises us for meddling.
Want to end terrorism, then get us the @!#!@ off of foreign oil. No offense to Bob, but the advertising campaign should also focus, if not more so, on this being American-fueled (or whatever country the car is located in).
CHEVY VOLT: American-made, American-FUELED.
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:38 am
…Lutz still appears skeptical about how successful such vehicles can be. “Other than in the media, there is not a groundswell toward green vehicles in the United States,” said Lutz. “In fact, they’re a very hard sell.”
—————————————————————————
I think that a Toyota executive would agree that so called “green cars” are a hard sell. But Toyota spent years getting there. As for the Volt…at $40K+…most car buyers do not have the funds to buy an EREV at this price. In other words, it is not a mass market. It is no brainer…produce something nice in the $20K-$30K range…and work your butt off making it a long term success. Heck, Honda has edged under $20K.
Does the new GM have the right people, foresight, and assets to progressively create a market for a product that is a “very hard sell”…and eventually make a profit?
As for the right people…
Mr. Lutz comments a few years ago…
Hybrid cars make no sense
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/06/pf/autos/detroit_gm_hybrids/
Today…
same story…different slant with an EREV on the way
You decide…
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:42 am
From the linked article:
“Still, Lutz stands by his skepticism on hybrids, which he says are having trouble selling in the current market because gas prices are too low and the cars are not cheap. People still want bigger cars, he says, with more power.”
______________________
Size and power trumps efficiency. That’s what Lutz believes, and it’s what he’ll push through GM marketing and product development.
What a colossal mistake that Lutz and his attitude are still at the core of GM.
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:50 am
Ok, you your giving Lutz a pass on the past eight years, even though he has had a good deal of control over the GM lineup for going on 8 years now. I can indeed see that he was not completely responsible, and he had alot going against him. (Although I still think he is a glorious disaster, lol)
Today however, everyone who was anybody (with power) is gone, Wags is gone, the board has been decimated and the government(s) has the most control, but chooses to be a bystander, and has obviously rubber stamped the ‘ok’ on Lutz’s resume to lead the charge.
I think we both can agree Lutz is completely on top of the mountain now…and he controls the vision, and the future. He has the ‘leanest’ GM in 40 years, he has a huge bag of cash to spend that rivals Microsoft (or soon will), and 80% of the product already in existence is his, or he signed off on.
Can we agree that everything that happens from here on out is on him? Whether that be success or failure?
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:15 am
“The sickening and Constitutionally-criminal methods that petro industries utilize to get what they want must be moderated intensely, and, their unaccountable “informal interest groups” and formal “private contractors” contracted apparently through our own military, need to re-establish a true grip on reality ASAP.”
So, in your story, are the oil companies, the Constitution and the military good or bad?
=D~~~
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:18 am
I see your point and agree completely.
It’s all about getting off your previous addiction to foreign oil. May I ask you to pass along your thoughts when you fill up your tank?
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Some of the posters here on this board seem to be reading something into Lutz’ comment that is neither there nor implied. If you look at his collected comments over the past few years you will see that his head is stuck in the “bigger engine, bigger vehicle” mindset and he will use his considerable power inside GM to put a cap on hybrids – - of which the Volt is the prime example.
Forget mild hybrid. Forget weak hybrid. Forget 2-mode hybrid. Forget parallel hybrid. These are a waste of time and money and do not provide profit potential for GM, nor will they increase market penetration.
GM has the golden ticket with the Voltec drive system, the serial hybrid system. Put a Voltec drive system in ALL vehicles made to bring down costs and incrementally improve the technology AFTER mass production has brought the costs down to where they need to be.
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:44 am
According to the White House Auto Task Force, and I quote:
“GM makes low-quality cars”
Repeated for those on this site that just don’t get it.
They said, “GM makes low-quality cars”
Nothing I have seen NEW GM do has required a change in this statement at this tiime. If the Volt will be a quality car remains to be seen.
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Do not bother me while a wrap up this Championship in the next hole…
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Another gem from Statik! Great post, sir.
I, too, am suspicious of Lutz’ commitment to the Volt. I think his focus is on internal combustion engine cars.
The Volt is the ONLY thing that will save GM from another bankruptcy.
Let’s get the Volt wheels on the road – and Voltec Converj – and Voltec Orlando – and Voltec Silverado – and Voltec Cruze – and a BEV small car of your choice that is basically Voltec minus the ICE related stuff.
Dump all the worthless hybrid crap that is not selling anyway (per GMs own numbers). It is not providing the greenwashing Lutz thought it would anyway. Trim the fat and get Voltec mainstreamed!
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
Tagamet says: “Doesn’t a groundswell of support imply that pent up demand would overlook some shortcomings?”
I’m not sure how to read that comment. Do you mean that many hundreds of thousands of people will buy a Prius even though it is quite small, not very comfortable ride, and not peppy in the acceleration department? Or do you mean that people should have flocked to the Malibu hybrid even though it added $$Thousands to the cost of the vehicle but didn’t add much to the economy of the vehicle?
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Under normal circumstances, I’d agree. But to quit just when your company is headed towards bankruptcy, which is arguably when they need you the most–I think it’s disloyal, and selfish.
It’s not like he’s a regular employee. He’s the head of a major division. His departure must have added the confusion at a time when GM needed all the stability it could get. And it wasn’t like he was taking a job elsewhere because he needed the job security. Or because he couldn’t keep up with the job anymore. That I could understand.
To make things worse–this is GM! A company that is being bailed out by the US government because it’s so essential to the US economy. And he was doing it in the middle of the worst economic crisis since the great depression. Because it wasn’t fun? Tell that to the tens of thousands of people GM had to lay off! And the 300,000 people who can still lose their jobs if GM’s turnaround fails! Not to mention the multiple layoffs at the other businesses that will be affected if GM goes under. And GM’s retirees who still rely on GM for a portion of their pension and health care costs.
And then there’s the Volt. Yes. I know he said he was finishing the project. But, no GM means no Volt. And an ex-marine, he’s supposed to care about national security if nothing else!
I normally defend Bob Lutz. And I really hope there’s more to it than what he said here. But, if he really quit because he didn’t think it was “fun anymore”–yes, that’s very selfish in my book.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
That puts you in a very LARGE group of people. I drive a Toyota Highlander and it’s almost paid off. GM hasn’t made a vehicle I would buy in decades.
When the Volt comes out all that will change for me. I don’t want a Volt, though, I want an Orlando or a Silverado (or a minivan please) as long as it has the Voltec drive system.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Toyota to this day is selling every Prius at a loss. If GM wants to go into bankruptsy again then maybe they should follow toyota’s business model.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
The Prius is a very practical car, good space age looks for us geeks, decent performance and roomy for both cargo and passengers.. and very durable… no wonder it sells.
Very interested to see the 2010 fitted with an aftermarket plug-in pack.
You driving normally to get that mileage?
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Laura, at 77 years of age he is entitled to do whatever he wants.. he paid his dues already.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
I’m not sure how to read that comment. Do you mean that many hundreds of thousands of people will buy a Prius even though it is quite small, not very comfortable ride, and not peppy in the acceleration department? Or do you mean that people should have flocked to the Malibu hybrid even though it added $$Thousands to the cost of the vehicle but didn’t add much to the economy of the vehicle?
*****************************************************************************
Uh, “none of the above”? I just meant that it’ll take time for the general population (read “not us”) to see and appreciate the wonders of plugins.
Be well,
Tagamet
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Shows why we need a carbon tax (that can then be distributed). High price of gasoline is necessary to convince people to change their fossil fuel habit. 20 cents a year going up till the gas hits $10 a gallon would be great …
BTW, something wrong with the blog software. It is showing every comment to be the first …
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
As far as beating up on Toyota goes, Toyota has a million dollar an hour research program where the company is on the verge of commercializing a fuel cell vehicle at a price that the masses can
afford.
As far as questioning Lutz’s assertion that hybrids are still a tough sell, hybrids offer minimal gain for maximum price. The most fuel efficient conventional cars get 35 mpg. A hybrid generally only gives a small improvement raising the mpg to say 40 mpg. If the hybrid achieved 70 mpg, it would be a much more attractive car. Sadly for the improvement, a hybrid is at least $5k more than a
conventional car. It isn’t gas free, so what’s the point?
Fuel cell technology is less mature than battery technology and therefore likely to come down in price a lot. It already has.
Between platinum nanowires and other technologies, the cost
barrier is dropping. It appears to be a matter of when the car
companies will mass produce fuel cell EVs, not if.
As far as petro wars, securing oil is less of a concern than rogue
nations right now. Iraq and Iran were both on the radar as dangerous states before the Iraq war where at least Iraq now seems to be in much better shape. Believe it or not, there is a
large domestic supply of oil and a fair amount of America’s oil comes from Venezuela. There is probably a 60 year domestic
supply of OIL, although the cost of tapping it may be too high.
I’d say that my parents represent the average middle class person and frankly they are not going to buy a hybrid because of the price. As far as people wanting bigger cars with big engines, that depends on where they live and what their needs are. If you need a truck, you buy a truck. If you need an economy car, you buy an economy car.
Bush, unlike Obama, pushed OIL free transportation technologies.
BEVs come with so much range anxiety that they aren’t practical and Nissan quite frankly is nuts. Fuel cell vehicles on the other hand refuel in minutes, start in 20 below weather, have a minimum range of 150 miles, they have a maximum range of 500 miles, they are getting more reliable, and they are getting much cheaper. Most important, fuel cell vehicles need hydrogen which is NOT a fossil fuel. Even if methane is used to get hydrogen, methane is a domestic fossil fuel.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
I would like it if they would interview Lyle again. I think it would bring even more people to Gm-Volt.com.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
In addition to the $7500 govt tax credit I think what would help is zero percent interest on the portion of the vehicle’s sticker price that covers the battery.
Oh, heck, just go with 0% financing on ALL Chevy Volts sold.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
Just don’t put the carbon tax on our industrys. It is already nearly impossible for us to compete against such poluters as China and India. A carbon tax should be enough to put the few left in a position of no longer being able to compete.
PUT THE CARBON TAX ON IMPORTS FROM COUNTRIES THAT ARE THE WORST OFFENDERS.
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
I have never bashed him before. In fact, I’ve defended him. In general, I think it’s a lot easier to criticize other people for messing up than it is to actually do their jobs. And hindsight is generally 20-20. So, I try to give people the benefit of the doubt.
I also think anyone associated with GM for the past 15-20 years had major headwinds going against them. And that he’s probably done more good than harm at GM.
But his explanation for coming back from retirement? It would be like if Citibank asked Chuck Prince to come back as a consultant, and he gave an interview announcing he’d agreed to come back because it was “fun again now.”
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
From the older article linked above an ironic quote from Lyle:
“I was hoping the site would be a way of constantly demonstrating to GM that the public is interested in this car. I really think it has had that effect on them, because they seem to genuinely curious about how many visitors I’m getting, about people looking at the site in every country in the world. I think it is in someway helping the process. Not that I think I’m that important, but I think it’s letting them know the public is out there. They’re also very interested in hearing suggestions because the car is not here yet, nothing is finalized.”
So naturally, they started their own site (not).
Be well,
Tagamet
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July 19th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Well they DID both get a bailout….
Be well,
Tagamet
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
I disagree. When you accept a job, you accept a certain amount of responsibility with that job. That means that you don’t retire at the worst possible time.
Contrast him with Lee Iacocca (who’s in his 80s) and the other Chrysler retirees, who offered to volunteer their services to help out with the new merger. Yes. They have ulterior motives. (Executive retiree benefits.) But at least they’re being constructive!
http://www.detnews.com/article/20090612/AUTO01/906120400/1148/rss25
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Hi Michael. Really missed ya….
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
In fairness to Lutz–I’m really hoping that this is his way of lobbying GM for a gas tax.
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
So the pink tie is backkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk!
Not impressed by someone who returns to a job, after admitting he is in it only for the fun. He admitted he left because things would be tough, and he was not willing to roll up his sleeves (and take off his pink tie), and help rebuild GM.
Bobby, you dissapoint me
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Lyle looks scared in that picture to me…like he is posing beside a bear that could swallow him whole at any moment.
http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/autopia/images/2007/11/17/robert_and_me_3.jpg
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
I can’t believe I’m defending Lutz again–but if it probably wasn’t his decision? How was it his fault?
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Nice day today isn’t it JEC?
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
I will own that tie someday…oh yes, I will own that tie.
Sidenote: Props to Lyle for that picture.
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Absolutely…if only my Dihydorgen monoxide (DHMO) splitter were working, my life would be sweet!
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Exactly. You said it so it so much better than I did.
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July 19th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
That’s more than fair.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
Here is the entire quote:
“Still, Lutz stands by his skepticism on hybrids, which he says are having trouble selling in the current market because gas prices are too low and the cars are not cheap. People still want bigger cars, he says, with more power.
“Other than in the media, there is not a groundswell toward green vehicles in the United States,” Lutz says. “In fact, they’re a very hard sell.”"
The Volt isn’t larger, it is more expensive, and it suffers from a worse economic equation. About the only thing it has going for it over a hybrid is a 0-60 of 8.5 ish compared to 10.0ish for a hybrid. Neither is particularly fast and anyone who wants a fast car wouldn’t buy either.
So forgive me for questioning why this quote applies only to hybrids and not the Volt.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Any thing the white house says or any of their task forces say should be taken with a grain of salt. I wouldnt trust any of them to find thier way out of a paper bag. This task force is completely political and out for an agenda, not to save the auto industry.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
A cabon tax would be great. We wouldnt have to worry about the Co2 problem any more in this country, we would all be riding horses agian and be back in the stone age as or economy went to crap.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Hmm?? I agree with everything you’re saying but when did we say “green cars”? I also believe that global warming is real, or at least that [car] pollution is a very serious problem. Why does everybody sound somewhat agitated to me today… Maybe I’m just a little too giddy because the sun finally came out in Massachusetts this week.
Another thing I realized as I was car shopping, is that I kept thinking to myself, Well, I don’t REALLY need a maximally fuel efficient car, I can just conserve by driving less or more carefully. Maybe other shoppers out there think the same thing when they see the sticker price on a hybrid versus a regular gas car.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Link to source please.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
You make some good points. But like so many others you want energy independance but fail to mention NUCLEAR POWER. Without Nuclear Power plants all the dreams of energy independance are just that-dreams!
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
That’s the question: what DOES the public want? what does the gov’t want to see on the road?
I know what I want, but I know I’m in a minority and given the current price of gas ($2.35/gal), I won’t see an electric vehicle until the next gas crisis….even then it’ll probably do what it’s been doing: gas goes sky high, the economy goes the hell, then when everybody’s up in arms about it, gas prices quietly go back down and the automakers have their excuse not to build fuel efficient vehicles, and given the low cost of fuel (energy) the economy rebounds.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
I wouldn’t agree that everything from here on out is on Bob Lutz. Let’s get real. Since his job is to control marketing communications it’s fair to evaluate him on … marketing communications. I don’t see how anything else makes sense.
One big difference between us is that you think GM’s product mix is terrible. I don’t. First of all, since the lead times in the bar biz are so long, taking eight years to turn around a vehicle lineup isn’t unreasonable. And to a great extent GM has done that. GM has decent product, it just also had too many brands, too many models, and too many dealers. Not every vehicle that GM has released in the last four years has been great, but there have been some very good releases.
As for greenwashing, I can’t say this is a Bob Lutz or even a GM thing. Other manufacturers have done the same thing. Or worse. How about Toyota? You don’t think that the GS 450h, which makes the hybrid Escalade look positively brilliant, isn’t the dumbest hybrid around?
What’s interesting is that Honda could have used a Bob Lutz. Honda’s hybrid efforts have been sad. Unlike Toyota which went off chasing dreams of global domination, Honda really stuck to its mission of selling fuel efficient cars. But it just can’t seem to get its hybrid passenger car right. First it was too small. Now it’s too performance and handling compromised. I’m thinking that a Bob Lutz would have stepped in and said: “Sorry guys, a lower price is great, but you’ve taken too much content out.” And that would have been a good thing.
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July 19th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
I was thinking the same thing.
Lutz continues to believe, as much as he will deny, that “there’s no replacement, for displacement” mantra.
I know Bob was the one who wanted the Volt, but I believe his idea was an electric assist to make the car even more of a performer. He wants 0-60 to match an F16, and adding electric motors gives him all the torque one could desire.
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
So, does every blog start with “I’m first!…”?
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
So…you really think Toyota just finished designing their latest upgrade to the Prius and it’s drivetrain, is pushing production to the max, and is selling every vehicle (now more than 250K per year) vehicle at a loss when they have a month’s long waiting list? Why do you propose they would do that? Do you think they are that altruistic or just business stupid?
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Tag, for me it’s mostly anecdotal. Within a couple of hundred yards of my house I have two neighbors who want to buy an electric car. This week my wife’s VP of sales announced, out of the blue, that he wanted to buy an electric car. (He knows almost nothing about them so he may change his mind when he sees the price). A guy at my gym a few weeks ago said he and his friends had been talking about getting a Model S. My next door neighbor has said he’d love to buy a Volt.
These are all insignificant data points, but here is the deal: When you come out with a new product it’s frequently better to be lucky than good. People have to be ready to buy the product. For whatever reason or reasons, a lot of people are predisposed to buy an EV or E-REV. So unlike 1999, when GM released the EV1, it’s going to be releasing an EV to a public that is thinking EVs are the coolest thing around. I just don’t think Lutz gets this.
I think people will overlook some issues but not a huge number. The vehicle has to be good. To Lutz’s credit he understands this.
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Yeah, a bear . . . . or maybe a big smokey factory.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6e/Roger_and_me.jpg
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Good post.
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
I’m definitely pulling for your experiences over mine. MY neighbors are really excited about those new cars in the Sears and Roebuck catalog that don’t have a crank on the front. I hear that they are toying with the idea of cars coming in colors other than black, too.
Seriously, I’ll believe in electric cars when telephones don’t have cords!
Be well,
Tagamet
/who is STILL omitting the acronym…..
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
I know you just love to bring up your precious Prius, but it only got above a 4-star crash safety rating in one of the 5 categories. Vehicle stability control is optional, not standard. You should take into consideration that MPGs is not all everybody cares about.
What premium? The 2006 (the model year of the non-hybrid I bought) base level Prius KBB value is $15,780 for Good Condition with no extras (good luck finding one at that price though, try more like $16,999). The 2006 Corolla S (which is more comparable to a Prius than an Acura, since they’re both small Toyotas) is $10,810 for Good Condition with no extras. The $4970 difference buys about 2000 gallons of gas at $2.49 (price at the pump this morning). That’s 7.76 years to break even at my personal driving habits of about 7500 miles a year. By that time in 2017, I’ll be finally saving money in my 11 year old embarrassing-to-be-seen-in junker. Thanks but no thanks, the ugly and unfortunate truth is, I’m in my early 20’s and I have an image to maintain.
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Off topic, (but still with a pink tie)
Good interview with Frank Weber (jan, 2009):
http://evworld.com/EVWORLD_TV.CFM?storyid=1720
of note —
-When asked what his biggest ” known unknown” is: Battery durability.
-He confirms that (in EV mode) ice will come on under some circumstances to condition the battery. (he’s talking about when it’s too cold, but doesn’t correct interviewer when he says too hot, I would think Weber would have corrected him if needed)
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
I’ve heard this a lot but I just don’t buy it outright. It can be true and is true for plenty of drivers for plenty of hybrid models but it is not true for many others. Some many comparisons done earlier this decade said they weren’t quite there when gas was just under $2. Hybrid’s performance has improved significantly since then, costs have come down, and gas prices are higher. If you do a a full analysis that includes all lifetime ownership costs, including any relevant residual value, good hybrids often do pencil out.
Just look at Haley comment at #1 that the extra costs wouldn’t be recouped until at least 5 years later as the reason for it not making money sense to purchase a hybrid. My contention is that hybrids will always cost more but they need to be marketed better. It seem to be the only automotive feature that so many people say that they would like to have with their car, but yet aren’t willing pay any more for it. And if you rationally analyze it, if the time to recoup the premium is actually 5 years all-in, then the hybrid was actually the better long term financial decision. Some might say but then you have to own it longer than 5 years to realize this benefit. That is not neccesarily true. The cars cost different for a reason and are worth different amounts for the same reason. Just look at Ford Escape and Prius residual values. I think you’ll find a significant disparity in price between the hybrids and comparable ICE models remains long into their life. The savings in running cost only need to cover the initial difference in cost (including $ costs) less the residual difference in cost. This is the part that rarely seems to be addressed in most hybrid viability analyses. The other weak part of most analyzing, IMO, is the contention that since we don’t know what future gas prices will be, they should be factored at current prices. This argument implies that since it is an unknown, ingnoring the issue is somehow more accurate. Well, since gas prices are still part of the financial analysis and cannot be ignored you fixing them at current prices is an assumption in itself. IMO it is a much weaker assumption because it is based on nothing. I think it is much more approriate the use an expert opinion or the pleathura of data available to make an educated guess at future pricing.
Then there are the soft benefits of hybrids. GM needs to be playing these up big time, even if they’ve written of HEV’s and are internally counting solely on Voltec for their EV future.
Bottom line, I don’t think the issue of hybrid viability should be punted so easily.
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Sounds dangerous…I think we should ban DHMO, lol.
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July 19th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
“(he’s talking about when it’s too cold, but doesn’t correct interviewer when he says too hot, I would think Weber would have corrected him if needed)”
–disregard, I misunderstood that, they’re just talking about cold
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
He’s not just marketing communications, he is the “head of product development, marketing, advertising and communications”
http://www.autoobserver.com/2009/07/lutz-stays-on-with-new-gm-heads-all-things-creative.html
What part of GM’s future isn’t his job if he controls not only the devlopment of products, the marketing of it, and the advertising resources behind it? What percentage of GM’s future would you say is in his hands? Would you allow for saying that he is/will be the person ‘primarily’ responsible for the future?
Unhappy moment for me when he ‘unretired’ was when the press release mentioned this, “Mark LaNeve will continue to be the head of sales, and will report separately to him” If those two directly together working in the same room isn’t a sign of the apocalypse, I don’t know what is. (=
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20090710/bob-lutz-un-retire-gm-ceo-henderson-says.htm
—
Sidenote: I don’t know about all that other stuff you are commenting on…greenwashing, Toyota. etc. I’m not a big fan of the GS 450h either, I think it is misplaced/mispriced, but I’m not sure what that has to do with the price of soup in relation to talking about Lutz’s future at GM.
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
He bails/jumps ship then finds out the grass got greener then comes back……into his same position.?????
Whatta jerk. That’s like getting a divorce because your significant other has cancer then you find there is no cancer and try and get back.
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
It would be classy if those that previously ranted about “government-designed cars” and “socialism” updated their conclusions based on Lutz’s input. It would show humility and rational thought.
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
“But lo, and behold, the government task force were not a bunch of ogres. They were extremely helpful, and their only agenda was to make GM the best company it could be.”
-Bob Lutz
…I like a grain of salt (or two) on my margarita glass.
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Hard to believe that the price will remain at 2.49$ a gallon for the next 7.76 years. So any calculation of that kind is flawed from the beginning since the trend should be that the prices will rise over time.
I’m also surprised that you value image over long term planet survival. I would understand more if you were in your forties and had to show the world how successful you were and all that but at this time in your life, it makes me wonder…
Do you believe global warming is just a scam ?
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
In my opinion:
It is his fault because he is now the ‘head of product development and marketing’ and he represented that he had the authority to make that decion, and it was made… saying, ‘the G8 is great, we can’t let it die at GM and we won’t” Only to have to slink off to the blog to say, ‘oopsie’
1 of 2 things happened:
A) He opened his trap and then realized it was a economic nightmare to back that decision the moment he said it and back out as quickly and quietly as possible.
-or-
B) He made a statement/announcement that he believed in…but overstepped the bounds of his job (in the very first days) or didn’t fight Fritz on that decision (because it sure sounds like a decision that should be his), which undermines his authority/credibility from here on out…and actually created a marketing disaster in so doing.
Either way…his fault. (again, imo)
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Thought I was a person, guess I’ll have to re-evaluate. Lutz, and to a large part GM’s, problem is they are too well in touch with the market that thinks like they do. People change, markets change, and if you don’t change with them then you end up where GM did.
LauraM, later in the same article Lutz talks about having to do a better job of telling it like it is. He said this in two different ways in this article. He has said basically the same thing in the past. I cannot alot him this “fairness”. He simple does not understand very well the segment of the market that doesn’t hold size and power at the top of their car buying priorities. That is OK if he can bring himself to listen to others that do and apply his thinking to the development of cars like the Converj. Fortunately, Voltec offers GM a drivetrain that can satisfy at least the speed and “fun” aspect of driving that appeals to Bob and many others, while still trouncing the efficiency of the best hybrids on the market today.
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
Not true, he wanted a BEV but John Laukner and others convinced him an they still weren’t practical but an EREV could be. My “concern” is that he is or isn’t behind the technology of the Volt. My concern is with his belief and determination to MAKE it a long term mass produced success and with his ability to properly apply this technology to the market. The Volt conecpt is pretty good but it could and should have been more market relevent from day 1. I believe GM’s misunderstanding and desire for green cred affected some of their decisions. Ironically, they should have come out of the gate first with a car that is more up Bob’s alley, more like the Converj. That said, the Volt has it mostly right. Hopefully, they and Bob can get a grasp of all segments to the market so they can do a better job of applying and developing their new technology more appropriately for the different markets that exist.
Good, appropriate green vehicles can be sold, as Toyotal and Ford (and Tesla to an extent) have proven, but mediocre ones like any other products don’t sell too well.
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Excellent post.
It’s the same thing that happened in the 1970s. First the oil prices shot up through the roof and many companies started plans to make electric cars. Then the oil companies dropped the price of oil to far below where it was before the crisis and kept it low for as many years as it took to kill off the electric car companies. THEN the oil companies started raising the prices again.
Sounds familiar, right? We need to make a different outcome this time. Hopefully with enough of us working toward electric cars and (hopefully) continued government support until the electric car industry can stand on its feet.
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
/who is STILL omitting the acronym…..”
I forget, is this a protest against http://WWW.Voltage.COM?
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July 19th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
I have to agree with DonC more than Bob (Pink Tie) on this one. If you look at the Prius owners, I think the majority can afford a more expensive car but they have chosen efficiency over other car virtues. The vast majority of car buyers do not have efficiency as that high of a priority but the “greenest” car is an easy sell to those that do. Hybrid sales in the US are running north of 200K this year and supply is limited at the same time as gas being recessionary cheap.
LJGTVWOTR!!!
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
I agree 110 percent.
Lutz and Wagoner where both “asked” to leave but didn’t have to, they could have put up a fight like honorable men do. They were in reality gutless when it got hot in the kitchen. When times got tough they bailed like wimps to protect their golden parachutes no doubt. Spineless is what I call’em.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Yeah, even tougher to try deception and sell a Hybrid as an Electric. You need to dial 1-800-GET-A-BRAIN.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
You could do those same things as a hybrid owner as well.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
I wouldn’t want him near my foxhole.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Get a grip dude. If all cars in the USA were electric tomorrow we would still be heavily dependent on foreign oil. You seriously need a checkup from the neck up.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
_____________________________________________________
I’m a Lutz fan but I agree w/ Laura’s post.
_____________________________________________________
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Wonder if Bob keeps up with this kind of thing?:
Ford hybrid sales up 91 percent in June
http://www.hybridcarblog.com/2009/07/ford-hybrid-sales-up-91-percent-in-june.html
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
Every industrial country in the world has more expensive gas than the US. You are just a bunch of spoiled cry babies. Hybrids and
EREV are going to look real good when gas goes back over $4 a gallon, and it will. Bob should join the 21 st century and stop being so skeptical because the good old days of gas guzzling are gone forever. Or he should retire for good.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
(click to show comment)
July 19th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
In two years GM will be selling the 2011 Volt. That is Version 1.00 of the Volt and it is not priced for the masses. They claimed yearly procution numbers of 10K, 50-60K, and then ?? That means we are in year 2-3 (from now) before they make 50K vehicles. That is not a game changer and is a pittance compared to the Prius. Version 2.0 of the Volt may be affordable but it is 4-5 years away.
My point was that a company cannot plan on making money in 4-5 years and just leave the market to the others in the mean time.
GM needs a strong hybrid product for less than $30K right now.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
… Personally I would be happy inside, knowing that I am not sending my hard earned money off to terrorist countries.
Go E85!
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Go Laura.
Lido was and is THE MAN.
After they way Ford treated him and the way he stood his ground I have the utmost respect for Mr. Iacocca.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
No, not angry. Evryone’s car buying descision is there own. I do get frustrated when economics are misapplied and then used as an argument against hybrids. Not saying you did this but is done often and thus my questions. I also don’t understand the concept of being “pretty gung-ho about environmentalism” but placing little or no value on the environmental aspect. In fact, you will have paid significantly higher total ownership cost for your TSX even if you only keep it 3 years. The total cost would most likely be higher for the Corolla you mentioned below as well. Keep in mind the cars do not depreciate to equal values when you purchase them. The Prius would retain a significant premium for a long time. The question is will the gas savings make up for the premium reduction as the cars depreciate. I also wouldn’t consider a Carolla any more comparable to a Prius than a Prius is to a TSX, but that is me, and if you see them as comparable then they are for you.
Bottom line is that you wanted the TSX more for various reasons. Nothing wrong with that but doesn’t make sense to justify it’s purchase based on an incomplete cost comparison between a Prius and a Carolla. The TSX was more appealing so you bought it, and it sounds like you are hoping the Volt will make sense when your next purchase comes around. Again, nothing wrong here but the Volt will fail even worse in a comparison done the same way as your Prius/Carolla.
My hope is that young, concerned people such as yourself learn enough to factor in the whole picture (all financial aspects and societal aspects). I also hope the car companies come to learn that plenty of people want the TSX fun together with the gas savings of EV’s. It sure would make the buying decision a lot easier for people with buying preferences like yours.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Dan,
the math does not work.
Compare the Chevy Cruze (30 mpg avg – $20,000 cost) vs the Volt at $35,000.
at 12,000 miles per year the Cruze costs $1,140 in gas for the year (using your 2.85/gal number).
Thats $11,400 over 10 years in total fuel cost for the Cruze.
The Volt could cost $15,000 more for about the same car.
This is money up front which costs even more over 10 years.
$15,000 is worth over $22,000 in 10 years at 4% interst.
The Volt will have some gas costs and some electrical cost which I am ignoring.
One will likely never make up the difference in up front cost on gas savings in the Volt.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
July 19th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
^ Irony
|
|
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
According to a Des Moines Register report, Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, wants Congress to use “climate change” legislation to mandate that auto manufacturers fit all new cars to run on a blend of 85 percent ethanol.
“We own the automobile companies,” Harkin said earlier this week. “Why not? I think that will be an easy one.”
U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu agreed, stating in a speech last month that all new vehicles should be equipped to run on E85
**************
Is Lutz just kissing up to his Govt. masters?
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
Yep, Koz. I’m still miffed about that. Not like that’s going to matter to GM.
Be well,
Tagamet
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
Excuse my omission.
I was comparing the savings to a 22 mile per gallon benchmark for what I estimate as a national composite average. (For example, the cash for clunkers for vehicles less than 20 mpg. Also, my current vehicle gets 20.5 mpg, which is just above that, as well as maintenance savings, which are too numerous to detail.)
Add up everything you’ve spent for the last 10 years.
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July 19th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Many people believe man made global warming is a scam.
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
That is true Dan. It depends what you compare.
I like to compare the Cruze to the Volt. When Joe Smoe goes to the Chevy dealer in a few years, he will see the Cruze and the Volt together. They are both on the same platform and the Cruze is supposed to be a little more upscale like the malibu so it should compare well in features to the Volt.
There will be plenty of consumer reports types magazines or car&driver type articles that will compare the savings and they will make people wonder if the Volt is a good deal.
For me, I value not sending money overseas. That is why I am a GM fan in the first place. I will place a value on buring less gas.
My point was that it is a tough sell to go on the gas savings alone since poeple will compare to cars like the cruze and not your typical 22 mpg clunker.
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
I too think he should mentor second line leadership and make them capable.
Lutz unretirement sounded me like ” We dont have a secondline Young leadership who ca take the company ahead”
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Yes, if all cars were electric we would still import a lot of oil. I’ve said this many times here. Cars only account for around 44% of our oil consumption, and we import around 66%.
But we have to start somewhere. Let’s put it this way: If we don’t convert cars away from oil, then we will never become energy independant.
The United States imports around 2/3 of the oil we consume. Oil consumption breaks down roughly as follows:
• 44% gasoline (mostly for passenger vehicles)
• 17% diesel (mostly for heavy duty long distance travel)
• 5% jet fuel
• 15% fuel oil (home heating and industrial)
• 19% other (petro-chemical, plastics, fertilizer, etc.)
So it’s obvious to me that we need other solutions in addition to plug-in cars. These would probably include:
• Ethanol from non-food sources ( http://www.coskata.com )
• Bio-diesel from algae ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxNeBQCRv1c )
• More domestic oil production (stripper wells, oil shale, tar sands, offshore drilling)
• Conservation
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
The idea that GM killed the electric car is a farse. GM does not have this power and never did.
1. NiMH batteries are used in Electric cars so GM could not have stopped that.
2. If electric cars a such a great idea in the US with its cheap gas, why aren’t they everywhere now in Europe where gas has been more stable at a higher price for years. Are the French and German’s in on the conspiracy to kill the electric car too. France is flush wih electricity and has high gas prices. Surely they would be out in front on electric cars if they were a good idea.
3. GM would sell anything that the public wanted in a car. If electrics were truly in demand, the auto companies would be selling them.
4. GM was forced to sell the electric car by govt intervention. They did a nice job of building one. When the govt lost interest and dropped the mandate, GM stopped building it. This makes perfect sense to me since it was unprofitable. The group with the power to startup the electric car program also has the power to kill it. This group is the California Air Resource board. They killed the electric car.
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
Wonderful point about Lutz not understanding that “green creed” is but one of several compelling reasons for having cars that getter mpg. What’s puzzling is that he has said as much when saying that he believes energy independence is important.
Seems pointless to argue about why using less oil is a good idea when any one of several reasons provides sufficient justification.
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
koz,
Your right.
What I was attempting to convey, was Bob’s desire to make a performance car, and all the other aspects, such as environmental and energy independence are not part of his way of thinking. Whether it be a BEV or EREV did not really matter, but making something cool and high performance (ie: fun for Bob), was what he wanted.
I guess you could say, this is Bob being Bob, but I hate that as much as “Manny, being Manny” crap.
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
I think Michelle Kreps is a fine journalist but I think she was a little sloppy with her language. The actual press release said this:
“Bob Lutz has agreed to join the new GM as vice chairman responsible for all creative elements of products and customer relationships. Lutz and Tom Stephens, vice chairman, product development, will work together as a team, partnering with Ed Welburn, vice president of design, to guide all creative aspects of design. GM’s brands, marketing, advertising, and communications will report to Lutz for consistent messaging and results.”
I don’t see any direct line reporting here.
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
His fault for what? For being Bob Lutz and talking before checking? That would be a “yes”. For canceling the G8? That would be a “no”.
You keep assuming (and claiming) that he has direct line authority over the decision but he doesn’t.
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
Also, if we include interest of that money “differential-of-higher-cost” over ten years, let me raise your very generous 4%, to my expected 6%, and recompute the numbers, and, then,
Then, Offset that 6% interest completely with the gasoline and maintenance savings monies that you are now applying to extra payments on higher interest credit cards or other debt.
So, if we have a high interest credit card at 18%, then, as three times that 6% (as extra principal paid on that 18% debt) for the extra over your regular payments with those Voltec savings of about $145 a month to apply to offset on top of that, would have a daily compounded interest savings possibly equivalent to three times that $145 when applying your gasoline cost savings to kill those higher interest numbers (if interest costs need comparison).
All Voltec vehicles likely will get sold for the first few years in the first few days. If the point is that you want to buy something non-Voltec for whatever formula you wish, then go for it. Your formula for returns are distinctively yours.
But, I’d bet that for a huge population ready to buy a Volt, the returns will be very rewarding for exactly the numbers and reasons I’ve explained.
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Laura, Lutz has worked at a lot of companies — Ford, Chrysler, BMW, GM.
His employment relationship with GM was entirely at will. He could leave at any time and GM could ask him to leave at any time. You’d have a much better point if he had an employment contract. If he worked in health care, where 2-4 year contracts are common, then quitting before serving out his contract would be one thing and I’d agree with you. But without a term limit you’re saying that a 77 year old guy can never retire.
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Cap’n Jack, How you know that?
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July 19th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
This whole blogosphere is Nutz for Lutz.
It’s friggin’ Nutz.
Do something else.
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
One word. CHOKE!
Well, not really. Anyone past his prime (40+), can appreciate the amount of effort required to play any pro sport (yes, golf is a sport).
Hats off to Tom, for going as far as he did.
Congrats!
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:17 pm
This is an interesting interview. He’s very believable, though you have to wonder about somebody who walks around in Germany in February. LOL
The battery conditioning issue was interesting but even more was his take that the EV experience is so superior. Another marketing angle. So in addition to global warming and energy independence and terrorism and health and jobs we have a superior driving experience. Seems like an embarrassment of riches for the Lutz and his ad agencies.
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Yes his fault for talking before checking, exactly my point.
I don’t blame him for the G8 being originally cancelled at all, that was a bean counter move.
How the flip-flop happened we will never know…all we can do is speculate. My bet is that Fritz and/or Ray Young leaned on him to not do it, and he folded either from the pressure, or he has other projects that he wants to promote more, so he let this one slip into the night.
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July 19th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Dan,
Your numbers don’t make sense. If you carry a load on a high % credit card, it makes buying the Volt even worse financially. If you can earn 6% on your money vs. the 4% that I noted, it makes buying the Volt even worse financially.
If you used your Volt money to pay down that 18% credit load, you would come out way ahead
The bottom line… if you have to put out an extra $10,000 – $15,000 dollars to buy the Volt (Either up front money or pushing yourself further into debt), it is going to be very difficult to ever break even on the gas savings that you will reap while driving the Volt.
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July 19th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
There are two reasons this is unlikely to happen this time.
India and China, when the worldwide economy has recovered I don’t think there will be enough excess capacity for them to keep prices low.
That being said I do foresee prices possibly crashing in the short term (12-24 months)
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July 19th, 2009 at 8:42 pm
From what I’ve read about Lutz, he doesn’t seem like the type to kiss up to climate change proponents.
D-Iowa? They grow corn in Iowa, don’t they?
I know, many don’t want government mandates (E85, seat belts, etc.). But, is it really a bad idea for cars to be capable of using E85? Does E85 belong in our energy portfolio? I’m not advocating one way or the other. I just looking to be educated (but not by coq petit).
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:04 pm
There’s no such thing as too much corn alcohol, just ask this girl from Iowa . . .
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H_rVDlsennM/ShvQgRrFTQI/AAAAAAAAONM/GynqDB6Ct08/s400/Redneck%2520Girl%2520%28Bottle%29.jpg
/ she’s probably carrying a jug in each hand.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
I have no problem with him (or anyone) retiring. If he had retired last year before any of this happened, I wouldn’t have said a word. People retire all the time because it’s not fun anymore. Under normal circumstances, of course he should retire if he wants to. I’ve met 50 years who did the same thing, and if they can afford it–why not? (Many of them really couldn’t but that’s beside the point.)
But these were anything but normal circumstances. He decided to retire at the worst possible time for GM. And he did it at a time when the country was falling apart, and very possibly dragging the rest of the world down with it. And he did it because he wasn’t having fun anymore. I call that irresponsible.
I can see why he wouldn’t want to work for “government motors.” I really can. But we all do things we don’t want to. And, IMHO, the right thing to do in his situation is wait a few months or even a year until things had settled down in order to retire.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
Sigh. Of course, I meant lobby the government. I really need to do a better job of proof-reading better before I post.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
Don’t you mean:
“Statik Explains Why He Unretired and is Skeptical About Hybrid Car Sales Potential”
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
This country made the most progress when it invested in the future. An unhealthy interest in the bottom line, or “what are you doing for me TODAY” has brought the country to the brink of collapse.
What your attack (and a terribly ironic one it is, coming from someone named Guido– got your green card?) has to do with the topic at hand, I really don’t know. I’m guessing there aren’t that many illegal aliens on the UAW payroll, or on the Wall Street bankers payrolls, and since that’s where a significant portion of taxpayer money has gone recently, the rest of your rant is irrelevant to reality anyhow.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
But he’s right about the mainstream buyer. When gasoline was 2.00 a gallon, most people were interested in size and power. They still are. Look at all the SUVs on the road. There are many more of them out there than hybrids.
I think he’s frustrated because people think the only reason GM is in trouble because they didn’t build hybrids. The truth is–if it were the GM prius rather than the Toyota prius–GM would still be bankrupt. GM (and Chrysler) was responding to the American market. They didn’t have the resources to do anything else.
This is why we need a gas tax. And why Mullally, Wagoner, and Nardelli all came out in favor of one after the bailout hearings. And so did the head of Auto-nation. Yes. There are many people who are worried about the environment, and will buy the Volt purely for that reason. (I’m one of them.) And there are many more of us than there were four years ago. But if we want the Volt to appeal to the mainstream buyer, we need higher gasoline prices.
I agree that Voltec has the potential to do both. And I’m hoping they’ll advertise both aspects–although they may have their hands full just explaining the AER.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
Capable? Probably not– all that really means is eliminating rubber and plastic tubing from the fuel line(s) so that the ethanol doesn’t eat it. Most cars these days have sufficiently advanced electronics to be able to adapt to the properties of the fuel you feed it.
The problem is that ethanol-from-corn still isn’t that carbon friendly to produce, and we might all be better off selling corn as food, instead of combustible material. Ideally, we should be using cellulose to produce ethanol, and using food to feed people.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
Unfortunately E-85 may be a false hope. This whole transition in energy & transportation has many possibilities. Algae farming appears to be the more efficient method for producing transportation fuel. Anything but Arab oil is fine with me.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
That makes sense. And I agree. He shouldn’t have said anything before he knew for sure. And it doesn’t bode well for his future performance in “customer relations,” which never seemed to be his strong point anyway.
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July 19th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
You misread. ALL hybrid sales in the US account for under 2.5% of the market. If the total of ALL HYBRID SALES in the USA exceeds 10%, then you might have a point.
Until then, Lutz’s statement that “Other than in the media, there is not a groundswell toward green vehicles in the United States,” remains true.
Sure, Toyota has the best-selling hybrid in history– In 11 years, they’ve managed to sell over a million of them. Last year, they sold almost 200,000. Toyota themselves sold over 8 million cars last year. That means that less than 2.5% of Toyota’s sales were Priuses. It’s 5% of their US lineup, but not even 2.5% of their sales. It’s not really pulling it’s weight.
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
Do you have a link for these? I know at least of them are right but something seems off. How many models does Toyota sell more than the Prius? The sell at MSRP and are often on backorder. How do you conclude they are not pulling their weight?
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
If Lutz was asked to leave, then why is he back? And why would he say he came back because he realized it was “still fun.?” It’s not like it makes him look better than admitting the government changed its mind.
As far as Wagoner–what would you have had him do? GM needed the money from the government. There was no alternative source of DIP financing. If he had put up a fight, the board would have let him go in a heartbeat. And so would the bankruptcy judge.
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
Ok, the thread is old, so I just have to say it, Bob Lutz threads are glorious train wrecks, I’ve missed these.
To defend Bob is to play Russian roulette, you may very well avoid the bullet today, but eventually…you just know your going to get shot in the head if you keep doing it.
/he puts a little ‘drifter crazy’ in GM
(=
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
How do I spell trouble Acura, my boss has one he is on his second engine and his second transmission, RSX with 65k on the speedo, baby the poor thing and you might make it to buy something better. As they say SO SORRY MR CUSTOMER. He was lucky on engine number two he had an extended warranty but they would not spring for a new engine a used one and they would only warranty it for 12 months or 12k. WHEN WILL YOU PEOPLE EVER LEARN, MY CHEV VAN 235K ORIGINAL ENGINE AND TRANSMISSION, 2003 CAVALIER 67K ORIGINAL ENGINE AND TRANSMISSION. BY THE WAY MY BOSS FOLLOWED THE BOOK ON THE SERVICE INTERVALS AND SERVICE WAS PERFORMED BY THE DEALER.
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July 19th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
I think buying influences are a bit more complicated than this and GM really didn’t give buyers many good choices beyond their trucks and SUV’s for many years. I don’t doubt and was disputing that size, power, and style are very important factors for most buyers. This does not automatically mean that reducing gas consumption is unimportant to these buyers. It is of varying importance and thus varying value. All it needs to be is important “enough” to 1 in 20 buyers minds to make high efficiency vehicles a 500,000/yr market in the US. That’s @120k for GM based on market share.
IMO, they (he) needs to quit wining about how tough it is and get some vehicles into GM showrooms that can actually compete for and grow this market. Go establish themselves in this space and get their share. The lower the cost, the more the advantages, and yes the higher the cost of gas the more the market will grow. Iran, Venezuela, Canada (HA! just hosing), etc don’t hurt the market either.
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Actually, cellulosic ethanol using gasification is here now. Using this process, they can replace up to 35% of our current gasoline use, without any affect on food supply, and without using any fossil fuels for fertilizer. Once EREVs take off, they will replace up to 80% of our current gasoline use. So the combination of EREVs and ethanol is more than capable of completely replacing gasoline, all using our current infrastructure of 110v home electrical outlets and liquid filling stations.
The only real problem is changing gas prices. At around $2.50 per gallon, ethanol becomes competitive. Stated differently, if gas prices go below $2/gallon and stay there for several months, a company that mass-produces ethanol would go bankrupt. So most investors are staying away from scaling up this technology.
This is why I support a floor tax on gasoline or oil. If the price fell blow some number, the government would add taxes to get it back up to that number. For gasoline, the number would be around $2.50/gallon. For oil, it would be around $65/barrel.
Even if the market price never fell below the floor number, and the government didn’t collect any tax, this would be a huge benefit for alternative transportation. Once investors knew there was a minimum, and companies have a good plan to make money at that minimum, then money will pour in like someone opened a flood gate, and things will become real very quickly. This includes cellulosic ethanol, algae bio-fuels, and electric vehicles…
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Every country needs to be given a CO2 emission target based on population (say in year 2000) and they should be free to achieve it in whatever way they want.
In the US a carbon tax would work well – since our gas prices etc are very low compared to other parts of the world (excluding oil exporters). As we saw duing the $4 gas – people will change their habits at high gas prices.
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Fuel cell sounds to me like SED (surface-conduction electron-emitter display).
Promise of quality of CRTs with the convenience of Flat Panel.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surface-conduction_electron-emitter_display
I guess you know how it turned out – after billion dollar investment by Toshiba and Canon.
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
Hybrids – both parallel and serial are a 10-20 year technology. They will be replaced by BEVs.
I’m sure GM got this volt thing wrong. They should have come to the market much earlier – perhaps using an existing car, for fast implementation. By 2012 they will be competing with so many cars in this area that sucess will be difficult.
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:30 pm
I’m having problems finding the 2.3% number of “Hybrids only account for 2.3% of US sales in 2008″– Sadly, I didn’t bookmark it. The closest I can find is 2.3% of sales in US in January 2009 were hybrid.
The announcement that Toyota has sold a million Prius units came out last year (May, I think), and this article:
http://hybridreview.blogspot.com/2008/03/prius-sales-will-be-capped-in-2008.html
Suggests that sales of the Prius will be more or less the same as the previous year, around 181,000, and that at the time, they had problems producing more. In Fall 2008, stories of stockpiled Priuses on the docks in California surfaced, although I don’t know if that situation has resolved.
As to the 5% of their lineup, they have 17 models, one of which is a Prius– they also have the hybrid Camry, but I don’t think it sells anywhere near as well as the Prius (let alone the non-hybrid Camry). The over 8 million is the vaguest number I used, as it’s based on GM’s global sales of “over 8 million” units, and I know Toyota sold more units in 2008 than GM.
I suppose instead of “pulling it’s weight” I should have said it’s still effectively a niche product, like Hummer– only Hummer required a lot less R&D I suspect.
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July 19th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
Mr. Lutz said:
“Other than in the media, there is not a groundswell toward green vehicles in the United States,” said Lutz. “In fact, they’re a very hard sell.”
He couldn’t be more correct. I can count on 1 hand the number of customers who have come to the dealership specifically looking for any kind of Hybrid auto or truck in the last 9 months.
Since the Obama Dynasty wants everyone to drive Hybrids, he should take at least 1 Billion of the 13 Trillion he is commiting to economic recovery to start promoting the benefits of Hybrid Technology. At least start basic educational promos on how they work. Something. Anything.
I don’t know what it will take to get all Americans to become eager to own a Hybrid or Electric car, but I’m sure that doing nothing but letting our president make another one of his grand speeches about “hope and change” is not going to get the job done.
Mr. Lutz: Let the advertising begin NOW!
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July 20th, 2009 at 1:02 am
Have you heard of spending more than you earn? Not so high fallutin’ as “economies of scale” but the result is pretty dramatic.
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July 20th, 2009 at 1:27 am
Obviously you don’t work at a Toyota dealship.
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July 20th, 2009 at 4:13 am
OK it’s late in the day, but J.C. and half of Belgium celebrate the mighty ones return!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EYAUazLI9k&annotation_id=annotation_72265&feature=iv
/Yes I went there!
//Be Warned, Tag would enjoy this music.
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July 20th, 2009 at 4:40 am
Those type of taxes are needed for road maintenence and repair. I’m guessing a strong oil lobby is defeating this commonsense approach. Oil was a wonderful thing, BUT, things have got to change. I may be wrong but our(USA) country seems to be in a very precarious situation. The oil companies dream is America’s nightmare.
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July 20th, 2009 at 5:48 am
ThombDbhomb,
One problem with Ethanol is that there are only about 2300 stations accross the country that are selling it. Most people with those E85 tags on their cars have never used the stuff.
The other problem is that it is estimated to cost the industry $1billion if this is forced upon them.
It is one of those things that should be an option but probably not mandated since E85 is not readily available for most people.
The congressman from IOWA just wants to boost his states corn profits at our expense. This is the classic type of problem that you run into when you have Govt. intervention in business.
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July 20th, 2009 at 6:34 am
It is in how they are used.
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July 20th, 2009 at 6:40 am
Corvetteguy said:
“He couldn’t be more correct. I can count on 1 hand the number of customers who have come to the dealership specifically looking for any kind of Hybrid auto or truck in the last 9 months.”
—
You don’t go to a shoe store to buy a hat.
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July 20th, 2009 at 6:46 am
It would not make sense for your specific situation.
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July 20th, 2009 at 6:56 am
Its like watching an accident on the side of the road as you drive by, you cant help it.
They dont make car people like the old marine anymore, they are all bunch of pasty faced MBA yes men.
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July 20th, 2009 at 7:17 am
I don’t think that a person who comes back from retirement is at all a bad thing. When I was in the Air Force, one of the reasons I decided not to stay in was because I was told that the average life expectancy for retirees was something like only 7 years.
I think some people do, however, retire too soon and view retirement as some sort of “promised land” all too much, then loose all contact with whatever provides them a productive self-worth or self-actualization.
There is just too much good experience and talent within Bob.
Retirement as a concept in America is all too often characterized as people staying on a beach somewhere for the remainder of their years. While the beach is a great place for a few days, you are not letting yourself have challenges as much, I think, that are required for good physical and interactive health.
The corporate environment has changed drastically if not completely at GM.
The old methodologies are not any longer in play. New approaches and new ways of thinking are all that is left with the reorganizational-cleansing of those old methods.
So, no, there is nothing wrong with what Bob has said. Technologists say the wrong things all the time (but in true desire to be helpful, I think), and certainly me included much of the time in context with what some people sometimes would like or want to hear. (Having people consider additional approaches to be successful is what matters to me, no matter if they disagree with me or not).
Bob is adaptable. That is what matters most. History is history. Give the guy a second chance, and I am sure the Voltec powertrain production numbers will be expanded as rapidly as is prudently and fiscally possible, which is what matters most to most of us here.
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July 20th, 2009 at 7:22 am
May I ask, what did you buy for a car?
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July 20th, 2009 at 7:46 am
Exciting reading here today ^^
/grabs popcorn
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July 20th, 2009 at 9:17 am
You say it would cost the industry $1billion. grat says it means eliminating rubber and plastic tubing from the fuel line(s). Those seem like expensive fuel lines…or something doesn’t add up.
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July 20th, 2009 at 9:18 am
“Other than in the media, there is not a groundswell toward green vehicles in the United States,” said Lutz. “In fact, they’re a very hard sell.”
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A truer statement about the status of hybrid cars in America could not have been said. Bob Lutz is correct once again. But having said that, I hope we can see a ground swell created by the Volt and other new technology vehicles being planned for release over the next few years.
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July 20th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Right. So over 2 million hybrids sold so far means they are a hard sell with no groundswell.
That, combined with CorvetteGuy’s note that GM fails to cultivate hybrid customers to feed its dealers, makes me think that GM still doesn’t have a clue. Yet, they are building the Volt. That, Jim I, is a nice example of what could be a basis for massive cognitive dissonance.
Here’s just a small sample of some of the benefits of full electric drive:
1. Superior performance: Maximum torque at a 0 rpm and up to about half the maximum speed and instant acceleration available at all times.
2. Luxury and safe performance: Smooth, seamless acceleration and near linear deceleration available at all times and quiet operation.
3. Lower maintenance costs, with only one moving part with minimal friction. Less brake wear, due to regenerative braking.
4. Patriotism and national security. Moves the nation towards overseas energy independence.
5. Convenient recharging available at home, while at sleep, if desired.
Note how at vehicle fuel/energy efficiency isn’t anywhere on that list, although that’s a huge strength for electric drive. What’s key to the future of hybrids is not that “they are green”, but that they contain electric drive, no matter how limited their reliance on it, and electric drive carries a host of benefits, mostly untapped by automakers’ current hybrids to date, with it.
Truth is, instantly available credit and what the dealer has available on the lot and is pushing and meets the customer’s preconceived notion of what is mainstream and they want (you know, like a large pickup truck or SUV for an urban/suburban dweller (75% of population)), almost never used offroad, nor for hauling or towing.
The US mindset has been stuck in the 1940’s and it’ll take a major economic crisis for folks to realize that what’s coming out now, personal vehicles with electric drive, as the end game solution, is the new mainstream. Oh, that just happened.
BTW, Nissan confuses 1 and 2 on the benefits list.
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July 20th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Yes, hybrids do terrible in sales.
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/07/while-most-of-car-market-tanks-hybrid-sales-gain-for-sixth-consecutive-month.html
/sarcasm off
Well, some of some company’s hybrids anyway. What is GM doing for marketing to ensure that the Volt is a success? I haven’t seen anything yet. Please note that marketing is a broader concept than advertising. GM must win minds and hearts for the Volt.
If the only issue with vehicle sales was just credit restrictions, then hybrid sales would be overall down as well. They aren’t.
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July 20th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Granted there is usually political motivation in all legislation & someone profits from it, unless making a vehicle E85 Flexible reduces its effective MPG on regular fuel, it will not increase sales of E85 and drive up corn price of corn unless E85 becomes competetive with regular gas. But I agree with the earlier post on setting a minimum flexible tax to insure gas does not drop below a target value, only problem is politicians will not use it to either pay down debt, fix the roads or reinvest in energy tech but will spend on pork. Yes Swine Flu has been rampant in the Capital belt for decades.
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July 20th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Right.
I’ve been seeing that ability to change for the last 36 years, after the 1973 and 1979 major oil crises, and Asian automakers took 30% of US automarket share from Detroit big 3 (now small 1/2) from in front of our noses.
/sarcasm off
It’s been more than a generation since the nation got its wake up call with the 1973 oil crisis, so the time to act is more than over-ripe. There are good enough vehicles with electric drive (strong hybrids, PHEVs, ER-EVs, HEVs) on the market now, finally, thanks to decades of small incremental improvements, most recently in battery chemistry and management systems. Which one is yours?
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July 20th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Fuel economy sells, and Detroit knows it.
http://www.examiner.com/x-1660-Baltimore-Renewable-Energy-Examiner~y2009m6d23-University-of-Michigan-study-analyzes-how-Detroit-automakers-can-be-successful
http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/63024/1/102298.pdf
“For years it has discounted consumer research results when calculating the benefits of improving fuel economy, often by as much as two thirds. If GM had followed its own market research results over the last three decades, they would not be in Chapter 11 today.”
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July 20th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Hybrids pay for themselves. Trouble is few crunch the numbers and even fewer are reporting it.
Take a look at the Fusion Hybrid savings assuming $2.50/gallon for gas.
$27,270 – Hybrid MSRP
$23,975 – SEL MSRP w/4 cylinder (SEL & hybrid are closest in terms of features)
$1,700 – Federal tax credit
$1,595 – Hybrid premium
23,975 + 1,700 + 1,595 = 27,270
Hybrid – 41 MPG city – 6.1 cents a mile
ICE – 23 MPG city – 10.9 cents a mile
You save 4.8 cents a mile in city driving with the hybrid. Hybrid premium will be repaid after 33K miles of city driving, 69K miles without the Federal tax credit.
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July 20th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Tell me more about that place, “VAGAS”. You mentioned it twice, is it THAT kool?
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July 20th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
The last fuel-price spike has left me thinking that raw physical efficiency is a Win in a volatile economy. Doubling the price of fuel for the Prius stings my wallet a lot less than doubling the price of fuel for my Ranger. I refuel both vehicles every 350-400 miles, depending on the situation. (We drive the Ranger fewer miles per month.)
So, to bring it back to your comment, a hybrid buyer may have made efficiency a priority in other parts of their financial life already, and so may not be hurt as badly by volatile gasoline and natural-gas prices as their neighbor.
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July 20th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
The number I quoted came from the oponents of this idea. I am not sure where they got that number from. I would concede that its probably on the high side given that they are the opponents of the bill. It was put out there with their names attached so they probably have some rough basis for it.
1 billion divided by 20 million cars is $50 per car. That might be reasonable.
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July 20th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
And the $47,000 Plug-In Prius, with its 12 mile range will be a great seller, right? The Volt, actually will sell well because it will get off a dime at full stop, faster than a Corvette, baby!! I’ve got my $25,000 ready. When GM announces their 25% subsidy of the Volt, we will be looking at a $25,000 car that performs better than any hybrid on the market.
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July 20th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
The bottom line is the Volt is going to be a big seller, because of its outstanding performance. It will actually be fun to drive. Instant torque is what it is all about, baby!!
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July 20th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
I just got a number from that list. Guess I have to buy one now
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July 20th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
You could just give me your money and stay at home. You know, little comfort for an old man would not hurt
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July 20th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
for all these billions we taxpayers poured into GM thing I expected more than just one Wagoner scapegoat. With all the old crew GM-tanic is gonna sink.
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July 20th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
And tens of thousands of them actually know what they’re talking about… http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,337710,00.html
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July 20th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Lessons learned in how to make history:
1. Every little tiny improvement counts, not just the substantial, significant ones. Lyle’s mini E isn’t perfect but it is real and it goes from point A to point B to point A, rinse, repeat.
2. Get electric drive product in the hand of retail consumers.
3. Actually do it. Talk is just hot air. Make electric now. Buy electric now. This makes a huge difference. (When it started, even the announcers were talking about it as if it were a novelty. But when the bikes were out on the course, you could actually sense history changing, and by the end of it you could sense genuine enthusiasm).
Don’t go looking for a huge breakthrough to make electric vehicles dominate market share. If they happen, great, incorporate them, but don’t count on them. It’s millions of tiny, little improvements over decades of work with vehicles, infrastructure and consumer interaction that have made electric vehicles good enough overlap usability with mainstream 20th century gas offerings. So what should vehicle makers work on? Everything to do with electric vehicle integration at once at all times. Every improvement, no matter how small or temporary, counts towards overall success. Those who lack focus and long term (and large scale) committment have to step up right this second to compete at all in auto markets for the next century, the 22nd century.
You only succeed with experience from lessons LEARNED and APPLIED from actual production and results on the road. If you don’t learn from your past mistakes (weak hybrids, ambivalent marketing and support) and apply lessons learned to actual results on the road with retail consumers, then you doom yourself to failure and marginal market share.
Learn from performance electric motorcycles, leading the way in real world testing and on the race track results.
http://www.amadirectlink.com/news/story.asp?id=1097
“It was the little things. I was surprised to the degree that experience outplayed money. We had some really big-budget teams show up, but the guy who won, he built the bike in his shed. But he’s been doing it for a really long time, and the little tricks he did, each of them by themselves didn’t make a difference, but in aggre[g]ate, they added up. Something as simple as keeping a cable short, and soldering it the right way — they add up. The bike looked not as nice as the American bikes, but boy did it deliver. You could stand by the track and watch him go by, and it was clear you were seeing a whole different thing.
The other thing was how quickly everyone got behind this. When it started, even the announcers were talking about it as if it were a novelty. But when the bikes were out on the course, you could actually sense history changing, and by the end of it you could sense genuine enthusiasm.
We really benefited from the idea of lowered expectations, but that’s great. The people really, really got behind it in a big way.”
If you want to complain about range, that bubble is burst, too -
http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/electricross/
Over 500 winning miles of off road riding (think Baja 500) in less than 24 hours, with no vehicle swapping.
When are you personally going to make history?
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July 20th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
You guys are right. I don’t work at Toyota and GM Marketing of Hybrids is very dissapointing. Lutz has come back to be the ‘voice’ of GM Hybrids. I can only hope he speaks more clearly to the American people this time around.
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July 20th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
True for those numbers. Some are better, some are worse for the pure gas cost payback calc. I think these analysis are more completely done with residual values too. They should be put into an equation with driver mileage, comparable mpg, cost price assummtion, and time residual value curves. It’s not like the hybrid premium goes poof as the car is driven off the dealer’s lot. Actually, the hybrid cars that carry tax credits or other gov incentives can be in the plus value from day one based on this.
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