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The Electric Car Race is Underway, Who Will Win?

July 12th, 2009 | Posted in: BEV, Competitors, Hybrid, PHEV

What started as a concept and dream 2 and 1/2 years ago when the Volt was first unveiled has now evolved into an all out race to build the winning mass production electric car. At this point there are three major players in the field and a lot of smaller ones. GM, Nissan, and Ford are each betting heavily that people will mass adopt electric cars. Yet all three automakers are approaching it differently.

We here are quite familiar with the extended-range electric car design that the Volt employs. GM is using its negative experience with the EV-1 and the notable range-anxiety customers experienced to improve on the electric car. By adding a gasoline generator and an electric range that will satisfy 78% of the population’s daily driving needs, GM believes it can offer consumers the best of both worlds. The Volt will allow for the pure electric driving experience and gas-free driving while at the same time eliminating range anxiety and the potential for limitless driving.

The company has been working hard to perfect the car’s engineering and for the most part has been doing it all transparently, magnified I hope by this site.

Nissan

The Japanese company is the recipient of $1.6 billion in federal loans for the purpose of retooling a plant for EVs and building battery assembly facility in the US. They will be globally launching a mass production electric car at the end of 2010 around the same time the Volt arrives. The car will be a 5 seat four door compact pure electric sedan with 100 miles of driving range.

“We’re going to the end of the spectrum, believing that is the way to go,” said Eric Noziere, Nissan North America’s vice-president for product planning.

Nissan doesn’t think range anxiety will be an issue.

Ford

Ford, also a recipient of DOE retooling loans ($5.9 B), as well plans to mass produce a pure electric C-class car with a 100 mile electric range in 2011. They are sharing the risk with partner Magna International. Ford is also currently producing a strong hybrid Ford Fusion, and will bring out a plug-in hybrid Escape for the mass market in 2012. The company appears to be diversifying its electrification solutions in case one category doesn’t take off. Their plan it seems is to let the people decide. The company has specifically criticized shortcomings of the EREV design and has no intentions of making one.

So who will be the winner here, and is there room for them all?

Source (CNN)

Posted by: Lyle

171 Responses to “The Electric Car Race is Underway, Who Will Win?”

+1 David Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:38 am

Wow, I have never been first before. I think there is room for them all, but I am betting that the Volt wins. Range anxiety is for real, at least for me anyways. Thanks for all you do Lyle, this site is fun to watch on a daily basis.
+13 ken Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:39 am

My vote is with the Volt. The American people are just too spoiled with the notion that they can go anywhere at anytime and quite honestly 100 mile range is entirely too short of a distance.
+3 Johann Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:40 am

Don’t forget the Tesla sedan in 2011. The 100 mile range of Ford and Nissan is not going to win many users in the U.S. Though, in other countries it’s likely different and they are not as spread out as the U.S. so 100mpc is ok.

I’m going to buy a Volt as it will be the first to market and then when something better comes along with at least 200mpc and seats 4 or more, I will buy that.
+3 CS Guy Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:48 am

My money’s on them all coexisting for quite a while. EREV will IMO hang on for a long time. Weak and Strong Hybrids will die soonest because they are the weakest technology and do not do enough to reduce fuel consumption.

Long term, though, BEV is the one that will win out. It may take till we’re out of oil but let’s face it, that WILL happen.
+11 nasaman Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:54 am

Most importantly, EVERY person on the planet will win! ….because reducing petroleum use will give us all cleaner air, greater energy independence, reduced economic impacts of oil price fluctuations, lessening of the $Trillions spent in unfriendly countries to import oil, and numerous related advantages.

As far as which automobile manufacturers will win, I believe those who are most successful in reducing EREV, PHEV & BEV vehicle MSRPs without sacrificing performance will win! ….and probably the most critical factor will be reducing the cost of automotive BATTERIES by aggressive acquisition of long-term raw lithium mining contracts, innovative automation of both cell & pack assembly and testing and —importantly— highly effective marketing. The latter (marketing) is where Bob Lutz will be a key player in conveying the inherent advantage of EREV to the buying public!
+10 Dave G Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:57 am

The extended range EV is the only option that will eliminate range anxiety, and that’s a big deal to most people. It’s also the only option that will fully charge overnight with a regular plug and extension cable – abother big deal.

For me, it’s a no-brainer. Once people realize the advantages, EREVs will dominate the market.

What’s amazing to me is that no other major manufacturer has announced an EREV production date. What are they waiting for?
+5 jason M. Hendler Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:18 am

I am surprised that you even mention Ford for this topic, as they’ve only developed a hybrid with no plug. They are “partnering” with Magna (meaning Magna is doing EV conversions of Ford vehicles) and Smith to associate themselves with RV’s, but they don’t have GM’s battery testing center, etc. I would never have mentioned Ford in this context, unless to say Ford has no exposure to losing money chasing an assumed EV market.

I would have mentioned Aptera, Tesla and Fisker.

As for who wins, it will come down to several factors, each of which must meet some acceptable threshold, while onw or more of the rest are optimized. Those parameters are:

Costs – purchase and maintenance: Upfront costs can be steep, which is why some companies are attempting battery swapping stations. Others choose to make the car either tiny, or reduce the all electric range to 100 miles, or 40 – 50 miles and add a range extender. Clearly battery pack costs is a huge barrier to market acceptance.

Performance / utility: Can the vehicle perform the tasks for which it was bought? How well can it do it compared to its competitors? Acceleration, load carrying capacity, passenger space, range and recharge time all figure into a vehicles performance / utility.

Styling: I disagree with those who say they want their vehicle’s exterior to emphasize the technology inside. There is NOTHING about the Fisker Karma’s exterior that reveals it is a range extended vehicle. There is NOTHING about the Tesla Roadster that reveals it to be an EV. People have an expectation for a vehicle’s appearance, and those offering a moon buggy will fail.

Different automakers are going to experiment with different combinations of these parameters. Those with the best combinations will thrive. Those who fail to meet one or more of the above parameters will fail.
+3 john1701a Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:18 am

What does WIN mean?

With the bankruptcy reality yet to sink in entirely, I could imagine some people still thinking that it means first.

WIN should represent sustained high-volume sales at a profit.
+3 BillR Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:24 am

My basic feeling, although not popular, is that all these vehicles will meet limited success in the early years. The price relative to ICE driven cars will be high. BEVs will only be good for those with limited driving needs or as a 2nd car.

Given that fact that the world has been shocked by oil prices within the last year, and that CO2 emissions are likely to be taxed in the future, everyone around the world will be looking to reduce energy consumption. I don’t forsee oil prices over $100 per barrel for any extended period for at least several years.

Therefore, in the US I see people getting vehicles like the Equinox, the Ford Fusion hybrid, or other mid-size vehicles with good gas mileage to carry them to the next energy crisis.

The Volt will be the premier electric car for those who can afford it, however, most will opt for high mileage ICE vehicles with more room and utility.

With time, lower cost, and higher energy prices, Voltec will take off.
+1 john1701a Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:29 am

Weak and Strong Hybrids will die soonest…
______________________

No, it will be the TRADITIONAL technology. Those non-hybrid vehicles are still getting upgrades, like 6-speed transmission, and are still produced in massive quantity.

As for lumping very different types of hybrid together like that, it’s not the slightest bit constructive. One can easily be adapted to use a larger battery-pack and offer a plug. That other cannot.
+4 nasaman Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:33 am

I want elaborate a bit on the tremendous importance of MARKETING…..

First, of course, the product (or idea) MUST have inherent advantages over all others —advantages that can be clearly & easily explained. EREV definitely has clear cost/performance advantages over PHEV, BEV, etc.

Next, as I’ve often said to young scientists & engineers in the space program, MARKETING must be undertaken aggressively at every level. As an example, Werner von Braun was a superb rocket scientist ….but he was an even better salesman! The Apollo program would never have been funded by Congress without his (and Jack Kennedy’s) truly compelling arguments that we needed to go to the moon and that we had the best means available to do it! So whatever Missile system is used, whether the Microcircuits in the guidance system used are the best available, or the launch team stays in the closest Cocoa Beach Motels, the most critical “M” of all is the one used to spell….. Marketing!!!
+3 ThombDbhomb Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:35 am

I agree wholeheartedly. A great product at a great price will get my money. A 100-mile EV will cover most of my needs – but not all. To accept a 100-mile EV, it would have to have a lower price than a car that can re-fueled in a matter of minutes.
Nelson Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:46 am

I agree with Hendler and am surprised the Dodge Circuit EV was left out of the mix.

The August 2009 issue of Car and Driver did include Dodge in their comparison.

NPNS!
an_outsider Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:51 am

The Volt would be my first choice once available but not at any cost.

Money talks loudly, before you sign a sale contract. TCO (total cost of ownership) would help figure the math but until the real street price published (and if all these cars) become available, the warranty batteries policy replacement should be know, maintenance cost estimation, etc. Otherwise, how could you figure the TCO for a 3-4-5-6 years term to compare E-REV with PHEV, HEV, BEV, diesel, smaller car and others tech?

Who will win? The consumer maybe, more greenest option we have, more chance to find what we need/can afford.
+2 Jeff Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:52 am

Well said…a clear definition of WIN is needed.

Any model that sells less than 100,000 units per year is nothing more than halo vehicle. And with no profit (and no viable long term plan to make a profit), it is nothing more than a PR expense.
Brendan Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:54 am

“Who Will Win?”
The auto manufacturer with the lowest sticker price and the highest miles per charge. The sad thing is it will not be GM, Chrysler, Toyota and or any of the major auto manufacturer.
The winner will be a new or existing foreign auto manufacturer which will sell a BEV for under $20,000.00.
-11 texas Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:54 am

(click to show comment)

No, the range extender is NOT the only option. There is an option called Better Place. Nissan’s biggest plans for their EV is for this option because they also think range anxiety is a big deal.

Also, what about Toyota? They are supposed to have their plug-in out BEFORE the Volt hits the showroom. Yes, they won’t be in high volume production but what number are we considering high volume?

Perhaps we should ask who will produce the first 10,000 cars. How about something like that to determine the winner?

If that’s the case, I pick Nissan to reach that first followed by either Toyota or GM. Maybe even the Chinese (BYD) if they can sell in America or Europe (or if the government decides to buy a fleet of EVs).
Canuk Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:55 am

Lyle:

Don’t forget about the MiEV from Mitsubishi is just around the corner as well.

Anyway, YES! It’s great to see the electrification of the automobile starting to bud – regardless of what company is doing it and what initial form it takes – it’s all good.

The main thing I see is that since all these cars (hybrid or full EV) use storage batteries, the engineering thrust from here on, will be for more capacious batteries. This, of course, is the main hurdle to be overcome to completely displace the internal combustion engine and its use of petroleum fuel. So, now it is just a matter of time before these better batteries come along, and a shorter time, now that the automakers aren’t just interested in further engineering thier ICEs.
+2 john1701a Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:56 am

Actually, sales of 5,000 per month has been looked upon as a minimum… which is a common target for many non-halo vehicles.

That’s an annual quantity of 60,000 units… which is exactly what was set for Volt following intial rollout.
+3 Jeff Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 10:13 am

Marketing can be important…but the best products sell themselves. I would rather use the term “Education”. The average vehicle owner does not understand the ICE powertrain…much less a hybrid/EREV.

Key points of EREV
- Just drive it
- Plugging In is OPTIONAL…however to get any of the “eletrical grid sourced” miles, it is a requirement
- If you want a car without the OPTION to Plug In, buy something else

Definitions
Plugging In – to get energy from something besides gasoline
Optional – never, ever required…not ever.
“eletrical grid sourced” – see definition for “Plugging In”

Please feel free to add…or better yet, simplify these key points. One energy source is confusing enough for the general public.
Dave K. Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 10:25 am

The only electric cars I have seen on the freeway are the Phoenix truck (leased by So Cal Electric). The Tesla Roadster ($125,000 out the door price). Two converted Euro sedans (both on my street). And one converted SUV in a nearby town. Have seen many GEM and SMART, but they are rated for city use only.

I believe the 6-8 year old car being converted to electric for under $15,000 will rule for a time. The leap from $20,000 to $40,000 for the Volt will not be easy.

Can’t see a Chinese electric car taking very much share. Ford will get some notice with the electric Focus.

Price and battery range are key.

=D~
statik Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 10:30 am

I’ll go with the ‘we do’ as well, so as not to envoke a 10 layered comment response war.

(=
+2 iRoc Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 10:34 am

NISSAN ELECTRIC SEDAN – reveal August 1, 2009.
http://www.nissanusa.com/electric-car/
Boxer only testing the electric drive !

FORD BEV
http://www.ford.com/microsites/sustainability-report-2008-09/issues-climate-case-electrification

Ford and Nissan don’t believe in the EREV.
+1 LauraM Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 10:54 am

I think there’s a strong tendency to dismiss anything promised by Chrysler out of hand. No one seriously thinks they have the financial resources to do anything original. Or even still exist in 2011.

It’s too bad since their EV concepts sound very promising…
+6 statik Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:00 am

The question probably should be, who will mass produce the most cars with the government’s money, and will anyone of those product be viable when the tap is turned off?

Chrysler is certainly in the mix. We don’t hear much right now, but when the government writes them a check for a few billion dollars, they (and their legion of press releases/demonstrations that are sure to follow) won’t be ignored…as well as their two ER-EVs.

Same reason why Ford is on this list…5.9 billion of them, and with the doubling of the ‘Advanced Vehicles are a Excuse Why We Are Giving Big Piles of Money Away Program’, they are probably getting another 5 billion.

But moreover, can you truly produce the right car for the public while spending someone else’s money? These are now fully funded government projects, that launch EVs into a false pricing reality ($7,500 rebate + whatever else is going on, cash for clunkers? state rebates? etc).

In GM’s case, should the ‘next’ EREVs be a Cadillac and a rumored Buick SUV (both probably north of 60K)? Does that really make sense? Or are they just green lighting them because thats what they have on the table to get a big bag of cash, and a relatively easy rebadge, and larger platform conversion, with nameplates that scream price premium…rather doing the ‘hard stuff,’ specifically a usable, sub 30K car that also makes a profit? More importantly, if it was their OWN money, would they these have gotten made (Cadillac & SUV), the answer to that is no.

GM needs to be engineering cheaper with this ‘gift’ money, and not just in press releases for ‘the next generation’…if they don’t, it will mean GM will have little chance to ‘win’. A $70,000 Caddy, a $60,000 Buick and a $40,000 Chevy is not the winning mix.

The Volt is a good/ambitious start, but it needs to be the ‘high’ end of the offering, or at the very least, the mid-grade offering.

In my opinion, the eventual ‘winner’ is whoever gets to market with a EV anywhere in the 20s (not counting gov’t rebates), that has 4 seats, can be serviced locally and has at least a 3 digit range electric range. No one is even close right now….but I think that is the sweet spot.

These government programs are doing the manufacturers no favors in developing in the right direction…which is further for less. If one of them doesn’t figure it out, and look at the big picture, the winner will come from someone trying to produce internationally…someone trying to achieve the, “drive longer, sell cheaper” mantra.
Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:02 am

While I was really impressed with the very extraordinary technologies with the Ford Electric Ranger (if you want an E-Truck, *** properly*** restore one of THOSE!!!!!!),
but, apparently, Ford Motor has not gotten over some sort of
“me too”-aversion to also doing EREV.

************************************************************************************************
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY GROSS MISTAKE THAT WILL PENALIZE FORD IN THE MARKETPLACE EXTREMELY SEVERELY!!!!!!!!!
************************************************************************************************

Ford Motor most certainly has the expertise as well as the connections in order to do this. I predict Ford Motor shareholders will be demanding the termination of someone there in the not too distant future. I would estimate that to be in about 16 months when Voltec is here.

PS. Has anyone ever noticed the exceptionally-perfect ways that the WP Ajax Edit Comments works? Thank you Ajax Edit Comments, for your superb functioning.
Dan Petit.
+2 Arthur Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:29 am

The buzz of the EV race will gradually start to dominate the marketplace by late next year. What still has to be quantified is the effect it will have on traditional ICE sales in the interim as more and more people catch on and start to delay buying until the EVs come along. I put myself firmly in that category. The winner of the race can look forward to a gigantic sales potential as a reward.

What I can expect is that Big Oil will start to massively step up their efforts to erode consumer confidence in EVs though the spreading of misinformation, advocating bad public policy decisions etc. Their big enemy of course is the internet where such tactics can be readily rebutted.
-1 ccombs Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:29 am

I think ford is smart not to focus (haha, focus, lol) on any tech right now. I think EREV is a winner, but there might be a great market for the focus EV, especially in fleet vehicle sales.
+2 CDAVIS Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:31 am

______________________________________________________
Lyle Asks: “So who will be the winner here, and is there room for them all?”
——
The Electric Car will become an Electric Appliance.

The winners will be those that operate their organizations (management, marketing, retail, & manufacturing) more similar to the way Electric Appliance makers operate their organizations (think computers, wide-screen TV, & cell phones).

Electric Car “Appliance” makers will find ways to best take advantage of economy of scale by manufacturing Electric Cars utilizing very adaptive modular components where the core components will be easily interchangeable between models (skins). That is why I strongly advocate GM replacing the BAS Hybrid power train for light hybrid models with a “Volt Basic” power train. Volt Basic = The Chevy Voltec power train but w/ much smaller capacity t-battery and sans plug.

The car maker not on Lyle’s above list that is both very seriously getting into the Electric Car business and doing it from the angle of building an electric appliance is Mitsubishi. These are the guys to watch over your shoulder if you are in the business of making cars. Mitsubishi may even have Toyota a little spooked.

GM will be in the Electric Car winners club if the excellent work of the Voltec Development Team does not get overly marginalized by legacy corporate culture. Changing the corporate culture in a large established organization (even after cleansing itself through a CH11) almost never happens. I look forward to GM proving itself as an exception because the Voltec Team are in my book American Heroes whose hard work deserve a fair chance of commercial success.

Tesla and Fisker have the opportunity to also be in the winners circle because they are very innovative organizations with little legacy costs.

However it pans out, for sure the Electric Car Revolution is here and the next 10 years will be a very transformative time for the automotive industry.
_____________________________________________________
+1 Luke Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:01 pm

Many people have room for more than one car. Why not use the BEV for the everyday driving, and use a more conventional vehicle for road-trips? There’s no reason that a road-trip vehicle has to be new or look nice.

Of course, I’ve lived in places where there was barely money or space for an old used car — so this comment doesn’t apply to everyone.
-2 Luke Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:04 pm

+1! I wish I could vote more than once.
16falcon Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:10 pm

Lyle’s sister site has a current article titled
“Mitsubishi Could be Forced Leave the US and Take it’s i-MiEV Electric Car With it”, so I guess that’s why Lyle didn’t include them. Interesting reading.
http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1022119_mitsubishi-could-be-forced-leave-the-us-and-take-its-i-miev-electric-car-with-it
+1 tbager Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:10 pm

post 4 said

Weak and Strong Hybrids will die soonest because they are the weakest technology and do not do enough to reduce fuel consumption.

When these pure electric cars and range extenders come out hybrids will be getting cheaper and stronger. I think that every car will be a hybrid at some point down the line. Until the pure electrics and EREV come down in price, so that they are competitive do modern day hybrids
Luke Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:14 pm

You can buy a brand-new Ford Ranger electric conversion:
http://www.lionev.com/Trucks.html
It costs about $38,950.00.

Though the Ford Ranger EV made by Ford has a rear transaxle which seems like a better approach than a typical conversion. Buying one and restoring it does sound like an endeavor that I’d take on, if I could find one for a price that I can afford without financing…
+1 newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:14 pm

RANGE ANXIETY is real folks!.. charging stations for BEV for every 100 mile radius is a long long long way to go, not to mention off road routs…EREV is the answer for all of these anxieties…imagine a 4 x 4 EREV in the future,… you are way out somewhere in the woods,..where charging stations is not available by the way…all you need to do is to have an extra gallons of gas..and viola!..less anxiety…
+5 koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:17 pm

” I think there is room for them all, but I am betting that the Volt wins. ”

I’ve heard the term “cognitive dissonance” several times but hadn’t developed a good feel for it’s meaning eventhough I understood individual defintions for the words. Thank you for the deeper understanding.

I suppose Lyle has pre-disposed this discussion to a win-lose scenario between the EV projects but it seems misguided or oversimplified. All projects can win simultaneously to varying degrees. Just looking current car sales, comments on this site, and logically addressing the issues it is clear there can be BEVs and EREVs coexisting in the market. The potential market is clearly larger for vehicles and services with acceptable refill rates. Price and convenience will determine how much of the market each solution takes.

Texas, don’t forget about the generator trailer-ready BEV solution as well.

The better discussions are:
-Will BEVs and EREVs win in the marketplace?
-When?
-What can/should be done on a societal level or aside from the carmaker’s efforts to enhance EVs functionality/value?

Looking at the market this way crystalizes why it is so important to start in implementing charging points outside of just single family homes. This will open up a lot more market for BEVs and EREVs as well as make them more valuable within existing markets. I applaud GMs recognition of this and support for establishing plug-in access.

Just bring well thought out and well built mass produced BEVs and EREVs to market and let it guide the future. The technology and implementations will advance rapidly in the next ten years. The higher volume solution in 2020 will almost certainly be very different from the 2010-2011 products. Personally, I believe the highest volume solution in 2020 will be consumer selected range of high power, high cost electrical energy storage device to meet the individual consumer’s normal daily driving needs plus the least costly and sufficiently convenient replenishable energy source that fits specific energy requirements. Could be optimized ICE, battery swap, ZincAir, generator trailer, battery trailer, etc. LJGTVWOTR and all other EVs!
-1 koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:21 pm

What’s wrong with the “ten layered” comment.?
-1 koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:22 pm

Isn’t that what it’s all about?
coffeetime Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:36 pm

I believe that the Volt represents the best alternative, given today’s battery technology. Picture yourself as the person in charge of an advertising campaign for electric cars from Ford, Chevy and Nissan. With Chevy’s Volt EREV, you only have to buy one car (pay one insurance policy, have one annual license fee, take up one garage or parking space), because you can use it on short trips and on long trips. Compare this to the BEV’s from Ford and Nissan. Nearly everyone who owns one will need a second car, because you cannot load the family up in one and take off on a cross-county, much less cross-country vacation. And please, Better Place battery switch stations? Not gonna happen, I guaran-fuken-tee it.
koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:43 pm

It’s not like the “Five Finger Exploding heart move”.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf5_kwtHSq4&feature=related
-1 koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:53 pm

Puuuleease…They made the Sky, Solstice, ZR-1, $40k Camarro, yada yada yada. A good performing EREV Converj is salable at an unsubsidized profit with current tech (particularly with most EREV developmental costs under the Volt project. Sub-$30K EREVs or >100mile BEVs are a pipe dream at this point.
+2 Barry W Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 12:55 pm

Whoever produces an affordable (under $25k) EV first will be the winner. A $40K Volt will only produce a small ripple at best. That price point is just too high to make any kind of impact on the market or consumers, other than a small niche of people.

If I had to make a bet, my money would be on Hyundai to make the first real EV winner.
-3 GXT Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:02 pm

Nice post.

In support of your point:
I don’t have the quote handy, but when GM first showed the Volt concept they talked about needing a breakthrough in battery tech to make it a reality. That breakthrough hasn’t happened, yet the Volt is apparently going to be a reality. That is why the Volt will be on subsidy life support and niche instead of being the affordable mass-market-Chevy originally envisioned.

It really comes down to the batteries, doesn’t it?

Perhaps automakers will gain some knowledge by pushing these vehicles too soon (shades of EV1), but it seems to me that if not for the PR and the government money the proper way to do this would have been to produce profitable/affordable high mileage ICE and hybrids while developing the required battery tech.
+1 jason M. Hendler Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:04 pm

First of all, I don’t believe the ICE will ever go away, as biofuels will allow their carbon neutral use indefinitely, so don’t think any alternative propulsion techs are going to make them less than 50% of the market.

Secondly, until BEV’s have both rapid recharge capabilities and the infrastructure to support it, they won’t exceed 5% of the market.

This leave hybrids as holding 1/3 of the market. I agree that mild hybrid will go away, but not lose to BEV’s. They will lose to more fuel efficient ICE’s running on biofuels. EREV’s will have so many variations that they will dominate the hybrid sector. Already, there are LP range extenders planned by Hyundai. Eventually there will be diesel, nat gas, propane, hydrogen, etc. consumed in countless new reciprocating, rotary and turbine ICE’s and fuel cells. I believe the plug-in fuel cell electric vehicle (PFCEV) will be on equal footing with the rapid recharge battery electric vehicle (RRBEV).
+1 Jeff Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:11 pm

I agree…”newbies” can give the best reaction to “range anxiety”.

Unlimited range (except for occasional short stops for energy) is a HUGE feature. It is one of those features like seats that is a given. Most people have little room for compromise here.

The term “range anxiety” portrays this “sometimes need” of unlimited range as a personality shortcoming of the driver. Without this feature, it places a constant burden on the driver to be aware of the vehicle’s current energy storage level and the distance of impromptu trips. If the driver does not have enough of an anal-retentive personality to keep themselves aware of their vehicle’s current energy level, it is more than a “sometimes need”.

Other “limited range” (require long stops) vehicles come to my mind…bicycle, horse, camel, etc.
+1 Unni Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:16 pm

There are more players :

ETV Motors Demonstrates Proof-of-Concept Microturbine-Based Range-Extended Electric Prius

The interest points are :

ETVM is developing its own microturbine, based on RQL (Rich-Quench-Lean) principles. The ETVM turbine will have the unique property of achieving optimum efficiency at two operating points. This “dual mode” property will provide a number of degrees of freedom when matching the microturbine to various drive cycles and vehicle categories.

ETVM expects that its first generation of the turbine, with an efficiency that outperforms the present state of the art by approximately 30%, will be fully functional in Q2 2010.

On the battery side, ETVM is working on two cell chemistries: lithium manganese nickel oxide (LMNS)/graphite to form a 4.7V cell; and LMNS/LiTiO to form a 3.2V cell.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/07/etvm-20090712.html

Have a look on http://etvmotors.com/?page_id=130 also.
CDAVIS Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:17 pm

______________________________________________________
The automotive ranking in your referenced article is very relative. If you ranked which automotive companies lost the least amount of money in the USA over the last year then Mitsubishi would be near the top.

The car making business is going to be re-invented during the next 10 years due to the Electric Car Revolution. The automotive companies with the best combination of available resources to re-invent themselves to successfully manufacture Electric Cars will come out winners of the Electric Car Revolution.

Keep in mind that Mitsubishi has a long history of technological development in such fields as space development, aviation, data communications, computers, semiconductors, and consumer electric appliances.

Mitsubishi Motors has been and will continue to work very closely with Mitsubishi Electric in the manufacturing of Electric Car appliances. Mitsubishi Motors is part of the Mitsubishis Group of Companies that includes the Mitsubishi Electric Corporation.

Mitsubishi Electric Corporation:
http://global.mitsubishielectric.com/products/index.html
______________________________________________________
+1 jason M. Hendler Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:23 pm

I was really hoping they would put 4 powerful wheel hub motors into a Jeep to show how great electric propulsion could be. That would have been the first vehicle I would have done if I were Chrysler.
+1 Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:25 pm

If you get on line to Austin EV, there may be a nice cherry-Red one that they may still know about that has had a lot of restoration work already done with it, but I am not sure how far along it is.
(~$16,000 as I remember it, might have been the price, but that was a while back and I do not know what else was done for it).
But they do require a lot of long term patience and often much more money as a second vehicle.) I see them as a “technological heritage vehicle”, even if the battery pack is a different configuration. But again, you must be one of those especially-patient people who is comfortable with funding.
koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

I must admit I didn’t read your whole post (too long for my Sunday comic section attention span, Far Side good Doonesberry bad) so I may be arguing in agreement.
+2 Van Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

Ford Focus EV, due out “late 2011.” 23 kWh battery and about 100 mile range.
koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:30 pm

Once there is enough competition it should come down to the fastest adoption of the best technologies and optimizing their application to the appropriate markets.
Anthony BC Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:34 pm

The one with the longest range and the most affordable price!

Probably they’ll all sell out quickly, especially if gas prices start climbing!

GO EV!!!
Anthony BC Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:36 pm

Bingo!

GO EV!!!
koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 1:37 pm

It better be (and I agree it is for the majority of consumers) a HUGE feature because it is a $5-10k adder to the MSRP.
+1 old man Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 2:37 pm

My reaction is –I wonder how far along they both are with THEIR e-rev design. I don’t think either company is going to take a chance on the Volt leaving them in the dust with nothing in the pipeline.
+1 old man Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 2:51 pm

I firmly believe Ford is working on E-REV. I base this on the concept vehicle called the refl3x which was a gas engine turing a generator to power the electric motor which powered the car. NO BATTERY STORAGE OF POWER. personally I thought the concept was butt ugly, however I still think it is a plan that might work. Key word was might.
newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 2:58 pm

yeah right!…then what?…knock on the door of the strangers store or house to beg for electricity when your battery is depleted?…c’mon man!…EREV is the next step before EV…unless youll buy a 2500 watt generator & extra gallon of gas and put it in the trunk of your EV…that will solve it…i guess…not until we have recharging stations for every 100 mile radius everywhere…,EV is just a second car…
+1 DonC Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:00 pm

Everyone will be better off if we get over the price and stop being delusional about a $30K EV. Toyota may or may not make any money on the Prius at nearly this price. it’s not realistic to expect GM or Mitsubishi or any other manufacturer to put $20K more in electronics into a similar vehicle for under $30K. Not going to happen.

Fundamentally the problem of arguing that an EV needs to be cost equivalent to an ICE is that you’re ignoring the current subsidy for the ICE fleet. If gas were priced to capture the defense, environmental, and health costs attributable to the use of oil gas would be at least $9/gallon (probably more). But for political reasons we don’t price gas that way. We choose to subsidize it. Given that we’ve failed to price oil correctly, the next best approach is to likewise subsidize alternatives that don’t have the same externalities.

At the end of the day, the question of whether an EV is priced fairly can only be answered by reference to the price of gasoline.
DonC Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:06 pm

I don’t think it’s accurate to say it all comes down to the batteries. Assuming you’re just looking at it from a financial standpoint, EVs and ICEs are two completely different models. The EVs run on batteries, which are expensive to buy but cheap to run. ICEs run on a gas tank, which is cheap to buy but expensive to fill. So it all depends on the price of gas, the price of the batteries, and whether someone is willing to pay more up front for lower running costs. (Digital vs film cameras are quite similar).

Better so say it comes down to the price of batteries, the price of gas, and the imputed discount rate.
newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:14 pm

every knowledgeable car enthusiasts knows that EREV is the way to go for now, at least for another ten years…lets say you are one of the most people in the world that forgets to charge or just lazy or don’t care if the car is fully charged or not, or you just can’t charge because you just don’t have a garage or just can’t find any charging station around and all you can find is a gasoline station almost anywhere….what are you going to do?….buy an EREV!!!!
-13 J K Rowling Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:17 pm

(click to show comment)

It’s NOT the ONLY option man. Are you some kind of doofus.
STFU !!
-2 Jmac Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:20 pm

Bring ‘em. We need more choices. The Volt is a totally compromised design, I am sure one (or more) of these companies can do better. The LG powered Volt is a good first step, but only a first step. The wave of superior imported options will hopefully crush all those GM fanboys that are still learning how to do EV right.
statik Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:22 pm

What a shameless attempt at making another 10 layer thread.
+3 statik Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:26 pm

I’d say a ‘win’ would be:

A) have a operating EV program that actually produces EVs to a dealership that the public can buy
B) being net positive on that project ‘all-in’…even if it is only $1
statik Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:33 pm

Hehe, I think you are arguing in argreement sorta. I’m also saying that the ’sweet spot’ for mass adoption has not been hit, and that government coin is not going to get it done. Product over $40,000 can be saleable, and a good product offering to compliment your line, but not successful in the sense of any kind of market domination, or ‘winning’

I don’t see any company with the ’silver bullet’ of victory yet…so I’m calling all of this early EV action a wash at this point.
+1 statik Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:41 pm

In the end, everything is decided by the open market. Whoever has the right balance of product and price is the winner.

/going to be a long time before we can declare a overall winner

It looks to me like we 3 strong regions coming up with their own interpretation of what a successful EV will be, (and the infrastructure behind it)–the West, EU, and the East…and I’ll still take practically anything from any of them.
+2 newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:44 pm

you have no idea man…we, GM fanboys knows how to do an EV right by adding a RANGE EXTENDER…believe it or not EV without the RANGE EXTENDER is not the way to go for now… why?… 1)there is no expensive charging stations anywhere available yet…2) there is no FAST CHARGE BATTERY TECHNOLOGY available yet (at least 20 minutes charging time)….3) price of EV is up the roof until battery technology and infrastructure mention in 1 & 2 is available…

geezz!!! research!! man!
+2 statik Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:50 pm

Mitsu is committed to the US market, regardless of this downturn. I have no idea why they have stuck with it so long…it is/has been truly a dog for them, but there they are nonetheless. (Mitsu is off 51% this year, ouch).

I think this quote sums it up pretty good from the original Bloomberg article:

“We will never give up the U.S. market,” Mitsubishi Motors President Osamu Masuko said on July 9 in Tokyo. “The U.S. will return to being the world’s biggest market.” Masuko also said the company isn’t pursuing alliances with other carmakers in the U.S. or planning to use its Illinois factory to supply vehicles to other brands.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0E3j.8n71UQ
-1 newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 3:58 pm

bullseye!..right on the butt grandpa!…EREV Technology is now…EV is later….maybe after 15 years?…EREV wins i guaran-fuken-tee it..
+5 newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 4:04 pm

better place?…are you kidding me?.. armagedon is a lot sooner than that BETTER PLACE battery swapping station you are talking about…
Edwin Mang Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 4:12 pm

I think I still want a car that go’s as it needs to , plus has the capasity to power the items I need while working . Electric is the answer to both of those . But the lowering electric cost’s comming in the neer future from new sources and recovering markets that result from stable and dependable energy . With the cost of production being in part energy . Adding in more WIFI in the rural areas makes more moble com and bussiness will begin to expand to new locations . Combine this with new tec in the cars will lead to one new boom like the tec boom in the past as the tec folks love taking one thing and making it better so the car tec’s will get new and better cars going as they get their hands on them . Moble bilboards things that you see in fiction come to life . Extended range with better milage comming soon automated saftey features that you see comming out like auto braking .
The longest trip starts at your own door with one step .
Eight thousand bites was the first personal computer I got to play with one then 16k now we talk like 4 gig is just the beginning .
But most thought the computer was a fad or not going any place . Think what can be not what was . I like the options that exist with in the Volt as it has room to expand and change .
Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 4:17 pm

Better Place is an extremely extremely BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD IDEA.

You cannot repeatedly connect, disconnect, connect, disconnect electrical systems, ESPECIALLY HIGH VOLTAGE ONES.

Anyone who invests in that (sorry to be SO direct) is

******************
A FOOL
*****************

*****************
PERIOD.
*****************

YOU CAN’T DO THAT without extremely expensive and dangerous consequences. Safety regulators are going to be ALL OVER that one.
+1 coffeetime Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 4:33 pm

“The Volt is a totally compromised design”

Newsflash, Jmac – EVERY product you buy or service you use is a “compromised design.” Name something that isn’t.

Given the state of automotive and battery technology, I think that the Volt offers a fairly decent set of compromises that will find a critical mass of market acceptance. This critical mass of initial buyers will get GM into the next version, which probably will have a much more customized ICE for the range extender, rather than the off-the-shelf engine they will be using in version 1.0. Who knows, version 2.0 might also incorporate regen shocks, an efficient transmission and recharge electronics that “talks” more to local utility companies to get the best power deals. Not to mention lower cost, which is what we can expect with version 2.0 and beyond.

But first we need to get version 1.0 on the road.
+1 Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 4:35 pm

From the independent shop perspectives, Mitsubishi vehicles were usually very “quirky” and very expensive on the parts side of things.

Their processors had overload issues, when both the (second) battery and the (first) alternator went bad concurrently, (surge-protection being not as good as other OEM systems).

I am not at all optimistic about whatever Mitsubishi produces. I recommend you not be optimistic about them either.
+1 CorvetteGuy Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 4:48 pm

$50K – $40K – $30K – $20K
It doen’t matter what the price is if the people can’t get financing. Especially those with average to low credit scores.
Obama needs to get the banks to loosen up… a lot.
GMAC (which is government controlled as I understand it) will barely look at deal with a 550 – 650 credit score, which is now the average since the economy tanked. If he wants a million electric cars on the road he needs to fix the financial system…. And whatever happened to all that bank bailout money anyway?
Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 4:56 pm

Passing emissions for NOX will be an issue, even with a three-way catalytic converter.

There are an extremely high number of conditional statements in both articles.

Also, the cost to replace a defective part looks as though it would be extremely expensive. Very Long Term Warranties
would be my main concern, as would be serviceability.
grat Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:06 pm

First, they’ll have to change the laws of physics and/or chemistry.

I don’t believe you can currently build a car that meets safety regulations, has a reasonable range, and reasonable performance (ie, highway speeds) for less than $20k.

A dramatic technology breakthrough will be required, and the major manufacturers are more likely to be able to take advantage.
koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:12 pm

A wash?…hmmm…that is, well, kind of a nearly empty glass half full type of statement. Congrats on this breakthrough but GM-Volt.com just swung out of balance. Who will fill the huge shoes of hard reasoned cynic?

I don’t agree (and I didn’t think you did either) that the first real production EVs out of the gate need to be market dominators to be “winners”. I think your comment under #7 is more relevant, but would add that it should have “meaningful” production in it’s market. Under these criteria, I guess the Tesla Roadster could soon become a winner if Elon Musk is to be believed (LOL). A first generation Converj has a shot at being this kind of winner and I don’t think Mercedes, BMW, Lexus, Jaguar, and others would argue with these criteria.

The fool’s gold of the higher volume markets has held back EV development long enough. It’s time for intelligent application of available technology.
Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:12 pm

I really agree with everything you said CorvetteGuy,

An idea I thought of today to pass on to Mr. Henderson was a

GM BUYER LOGISTICS SERVICE, (working with my financial institution).

This would help a lot more people get into a Voltec vehicle who certainly have the complete decision down, have creditworthiness for car payments, yet, need financial logistical help in any practical way that paper instruments can provide.

For example, If I am privately selling my present car for what the NADA full retail value (for the very best condition), is in order to get my Voltec payment down to where I know (and the financial institution knows) that I am completely comfortable, I may need to have already in place, various (no cost) financial instruments so that when a Voltec vehicle buying opportunity is available, all I have to do is say “yes”.

This is more important nowadays since we have a vehicle line that is more costly, and, we have financial climates that are more contrary to making the Voltec vehicle sale go through the process instantly.

(This is since I have to sell my existing vehicle at the very best retail, and, I will most certainly need to get, what you might call a “sub-note” to apply that private sale as a more liquid asset,
(30 days-paid-title-secured funding of that retail value) immediately applied somehow to the purchase of my Voltec vehicle at time of closing within drafting instructions).

I don’t want “instant financing”, I want to set up the proper financial instruments (say, at University Federal Credit Union), well beforehand when the opportunity to purchase a Voltec vehicle comes my way. All I want to have to do is say

**********************
**YESSSSSS!!!!**
**********************
and drive it away.
CorvetteGuy Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:22 pm

What you describe is needed for ALL cars and trucks to get the economy moving again.

I also think the banks (government) should implement something like MIP which is used on home loans. Lets say a customer wants to buy the VOLT, and has a low credit score, but everything else is good… Charge them a $250 VIP Charge (Voltec Insurance Premium)
This could then be used as a pool of money for the banks to cover their losses on (hopefully very few) failed VOLT car loans.

Sound good?! Huh? Let’s get America BUYING again!
Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:37 pm

CorvetteGuy,

That is also an extremely good idea. The Voltec vehicle will most definitely hold its value, and, there also will be many more who would buy it “right out from underneath you” in a heartbeat.

It’s these kinds of ideas shared openly right here, which makes Lyle’s site the most valuable in the first place.

*************************************************
THIS IS HOW TO CHANGE THE PLANET.
*************************************************
JEC Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:37 pm

Really? Every knowledgeable car enthusiast? That’s quite a net your casting newbster!
CS Guy Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:43 pm

Dan, sorry to be so blunt but shouldn’t you disclose that you have an economic interest in seeing ICE cars continue to be built and (here’s your $$$ economic interest $$$) needing to be serviced REGULARLY as all ICE cars do.

You would lose serious loads of MONEY if better place really took off because the maintenance on electric cars is practically nill. You may lose your job, or have to retrain into another field if all cars were electric.

Is that why you are so set against it that you would make up this sh_t you just posted: plugging and unplugging has “expensive and dangerous consequences?”

Yeah, for your career. Other than that what you posted is nonsense. The power isn’t even applied during plugging and unplugging in the case of the BP charging posts and in the case of the battery swap station the entire vehicle is off.

I often agree with your posts but you’ve really gone off the deep end with this post.

There is no reason they could not all win
+1 Xiaowei1 Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:52 pm

agreed
+1 lektriktadpole Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:52 pm

It won’t be that simple. EV systems travel 5 times as far on a given amount of energy as do current ICE systems. I do think biofuels or “direct” chemical/physical fixation of CO2 to a liquid fuel will play a significant role, but only in cases where electric drive is not feasible. The EREV does it best by roughly doubling the efficiency of the ICE system and only using it when electric options have been exhausted. And we may get better ways of converting bio/synfuels to electricity than an ICE genset. We may see practical fuel cells that use methanol/ethanol/syngasoline that will be more efficient than an ICE but will still eat a liquid fuel. ICEs may die when something more efficient and equally effective comes along. They have set a high standard for effectiveness.
Zach Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:55 pm

120mi+ range would be ideal, but if the price was right, I would definitely buy a 100mi EV over an EREV design, simply because I don’t do a lot of traveling, and I wouldn’t want to pay for something I won’t be using (combustion engine).
Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 5:58 pm

Better Place will be its own disaster in its own time. Go ahead and invest in it if you desire and do not heed my warnings based on what I already know regarding working on several EV battery changeovers.

Yes, you are absolutely correct in that there will be a gradual diminished amount of ICE work for my 412 advanced techs (to date) that I have already trained on ASE- L1 advanced ICE engine systems. But believe me here, they are increasingly ready for EREV ICE and Processor and Subprocessor systems even before they get deployed.

However, where you are absolutely wrong (not your fault for not knowing this), but the very marketability of those 412 well trained techs are being highly advanced toward success for EREV vehicles, since there is an ever- increasing proportion of the training (and money to be properly earned even now marketwise) from guess what,

Advanced Processor Systems. (and the things messing them up).

Two techs just finished a seminar I taught them yesterday.
Their certificate reads:

“Genisys Diagnostics Seminar
Advanced Processor Systems
Advanced Sequenced Analysis
Certificate of Training
____[tech's name here]_________
with
Highest Comprehension

Dan Petit
Petit Technical Svcs [seal/ribbon here]
ASE-Examined L-1
Educator
Advanced Engine Systems”
+4 CS Guy Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 6:04 pm

“WIN should represent sustained high-volume sales at a profit.”

Definitely agree with you there, john, and that is what my comment above assumed as the definition of “win.”

This is why I gave the Volt as the last holdout before final domination by BEV, but I didn’t specify a timeline:

2015 – Volt will dominate, other hybrids decreasing qty, BEV maybe 10% of market
2020 – Only Volt and BEV vehicles manufactured
2025 – Probably the first year BEV outsells Voltec, ICE phasout begins
2030 to 2049 – Domination by BEV with ICE phaseout ramping up
2050 – BEV vehicles only

and in 2051 – EESTOR begins mass production of its ultracapacitator
(sorry, couldn’t resist that)
Dave G Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 6:05 pm

I agree.

As EREVs and EVs progress, the resulting advances in battery technology will make regular hybrids (parallel and series-parallel) more attractive than traditional gas-engine vehicles. This will be especially true for larger vehicles like SUVs, Pickups, and Minivans, where current battery technology makes EREVs impractical.

As for adding a bigger battery and plug to an existing hybrid vehilce, I don’t think that will be so easy. In order to do it right (i.e. make it handle well and safe in a crash), you have to design the whole chassis around the large battery. It’s more of a do-over type design, not an add-on.
+2 Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 6:27 pm

One additional note.

This is real world training on vehicles needing immediate and correct diagnostics on live “in-shop”

“on-vehicle-right-now-diagnose-it”

repair orders.

There is no comparison between “normal engineering design”
“this is how it works” (nearly worthless) in context with an exact sequence of procedures for

analyzing “this is why it doesn’t work”.
There is no substitute for the reality of 36 years of experience.
Voltec is a natural extension of where these 412 techs may properly serve the needs of the market for an extremely wide array of diagnostic tasks, trained and training-maintained with a perfected method that will take them (and myself) right on into the electric future.
statik Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 6:41 pm

I guess the trick is in the interpretation of the question… ‘a winner,’ or ‘the winner,’ or do EVs get a ’special’ EV category/exemption from regular ICE cars to get this classification, I dunno.

/it is all very ambiguous

http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Hollow/3725/gayduo2.jpg
Herm Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 6:57 pm

Dan, the time is long past that manufacturers do remote diagnostics from the factory, by EXPERT TECHNICIANS, and you should be able to do it from home..

Even further than that, the car’s computer should initiate a consultation with the factory all on its own.
+1 Herm Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:13 pm

no laws need to be broken.. there are many sub $10k ice cars sold in the US.. stick a $10k battery in it and you are set. The Volts battery costs GM under $12k so its definitely doable.

You want more than 100 miles of range?.. rent a genset on a trailer.
+2 Red HHR Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:18 pm

Now for my 2 cents. A lot of our mess is due to no down payment. Upside down on the car loan? Roll it over into the new one. That is just wrong! Come on 20% down, home, car, whatever. Lyle is looking for a winner, in this case the loser is the taxpayer…
EVNow Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:33 pm

This is a curious post. It ignores cars like iMiEV, Toyota’s plugin Prius and Lyle’s eMini. It ignores that the trend either started with Tesla or with Prius. Volt didn’t start this …

I’ll probably by the Nissan EV first since we will have a gas car in the family. The next car would be something like Volt …
-3 koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:34 pm

Dan, I normally enjoy your posts (at least the ones my nanosecond attention span allow me to enjoy) but I think your GM briefs are riding up a bit here. Technologically, battery swapping is the only all EV solution that is practical. The issues aren’t with the technology but rather the business model. How much capital and time will it take to be practically implented in a country like the US and can it ever be profitable? Those are valid concerns but there are losts of islands and geographically small countries in the world.
omegaman66 Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:34 pm

It is all to freaking obvious. There will be both all electric and electric with a generator (the volt). The only drawback to the volt is the added cost of the generator. But the all electric must have a lot of extra batteries used soley for occasional use. And even then super long trips are not possible.

So in the end we will end up with EREVs and some cheap cars that are all electric just for those that have short commutes and there will be luxury cars that are all electric with lots of range for those that have deep pockets.
Red HHR Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:36 pm

The winner will sell a car that my wife wants to buy. Of course I would want that Penske Electric Sky, with optional range extender trailer. After that a Voltec Colorado with electric 4 wheel drive.
+1 omegaman66 Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:38 pm

Johann I am not saying you are wrong but I would bet a ton of money that most people (NOT ALL) that say

“I’m going to buy a Volt as it will be the first to market and then when something better comes along with at least 200mpc and seats 4 or more, I will buy that.”

will actually stick with the Volt type car because they realize the extra cost for the 200mpc just isn’t worth it. Why spend an extra 10000 dollars to save 300 dollars a year.
+1 texas Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:42 pm

Dan, What are you afraid of? Better Place is already scheduled to be up and running in 2010 (test cars) and open for business in 2011. They are fully funded and don’t need additional funding to finish the project.

Therefore, instead of jumping up and down that it won’t work and that you are so smart and know so much, how about we just wait until next year and see? I think that makes you look less foolish.

So, go ahead and mark my posts negative, Better Place is coming. The sooner you all accept the fact that competition is on it’s way, the better. If it fails, no problem. We will all learn something. If it’s successful and their competition is not prepared. Not good.

Don’t be such fan-boys. The more options we have the better.
+1 Herm Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:45 pm

but lots and lots of families have two cars..
+1 Anthony BC Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:55 pm

Yup, already got the generator. My EV requirements to & from work, 30 mile round trip.

And yes, EV is my main car, gas is my second one! An EREV is only a requirement for the remaining 20% population who drive more than 40 miles a day!

GO EV !!!
texas Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 7:56 pm

What if you don’t have a gallon of gas? It’s hard to manufacture! How about you just have a roll-up solar panel and wait for the sun, which will come out eventually.

Thus, the BEV might just be the most sure way for you to make it out of the woods or out of the desert alive.
texas Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:01 pm

What about people that back the Better Place concept? I’m guessing Shai Agassi knows more than you do about the market. In a debate I’m sure you would end up sucking your thumb.
Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:09 pm

Yes, they’ve tried and tried that (and I admire that effort).

There is no substitute for seeing right there in the field firstly.
This is why my content is ahead of all other independent training for wide ranging systematic diagnostics.

Yes, I know that this is a big statement.

Although a battery pack itself can be nicely monitored through OnStar,
and, you could certainly get a call from a GM tech from your Chevy store (which is what likely may happen if you don’t want a sudden and unexpected voice in the cabin) if you need to go in for an adjustment, there is still everything else there that I am very nearly already able to train, if anyone at GM has as much interest in my capabilities and business plans as much as I am seriously interested in Voltec helping to save our a$$e$ from the planet turning into a toaster. (Excuse the run-on sentence).

But the logjam here, and everywhere else are the relatively few qualified man-hours from a dedicated and trained tech in relation to the required number of those tech man hours needed by everyone elses service needs out there.

Simply that.

You are in competition for that techs best efforts, versus the person who just walked in before you who wants a high-flag-hours (job) water pump put into his vehicle.

While just about all techs are dedicated, far far too few have exceptional training. This is because most aftermarket training is, well, too much “normal-function” unstructured and not hands on, and, all techs know immediately what that is:
Insufficiently helpful for their time, especially when they have been in the very high heat all week on very hot engines.

There was one well-known trainer I know of who had many techs just get up and walk out of his training session (in Houston), because, (as I had found out after he told me), he had a lot of normal function “design information” with no experience-connectivity that they could relate to.

The reason why most high level processor faults can never be diagnosed via telemetry, is that causation is always going to be a “hands on” diagnosis.

Most people tend to think that a battery in a car is just as relatively easy to swap as a couple of “D” cells in a flashlight.
Or, it “ought” to be as easy as the changing of a 12 volt car battery (there are 8 deadly errors to processors that can go wrong with that).

So, yes, I honestly welcome blunt statements of disagreement, because that pulls out more direct experience that I could not have otherwise known to explain.
+1 koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:10 pm

That would be mostly correct except:
-Battery prices are moving in the opposite direction as fuel prices
-The majority of 2+ car households don’t need more than one vehicle with 80+ miles of range.
-Many households don’t need 100+ range often enough in any of their vehicles to require carrying the extra 400lbs or so of genset components 100% of the time. Why take the performance hit and $5-10k per vehicle?
-A lot of people curently rent cars for extended driving trips because it is often cheaper than driving their own perfectly capable car or for the extra capacity and space.

Sorry, but the future and the perspective of others is never freaking obvious.
+1 koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:16 pm

Or the upper primates, knowing their BEV only has X miles of range don’t try to drive X+ miles (at least not twice)
Tagamet Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:19 pm

Uncontested.

LJGTVWOTR!!!!!!!!!!!
Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:35 pm

The winners are many. The “winner” taxpayer will be earning money back with good interest from my Voltec purchase at $40,000 which I will gladly pay if I have the chance to buy one.

Money down? Absolutely the only way!! You could not be more correct and wise!!!

I am putting 30% down on that Volt with $12,000 from the retail sale of my present vehicle. I am working as hard as I can to get that Volt. I am striving to get to put 35% down.
koz Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:41 pm

9

Tag, now that I have you hear, would I have to have shame in order to make a shameless comment? If so, I’ll have to thank Statik.

Besides a comment such as “it’s not like a ten loop death knot” would show even less shame so my previous comments must have had some shame.
-1 CS Guy Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:43 pm

I wasn’t knocking your (or your technicians) expertise. I understand that it is vital in the world of ICE to have you all on the job and if you look at my reply to post #7 I am not wishing you out of a job in the foreseeable future. You will probably retire before any career affects would be felt.

My beef with your post is that it is patently false. You do not wear the mantle of “Fear Monger Dan” very often but you put it on in spades today.

Trying to tell people that a Project Better Place charge-up for your electric car will be dangerous in any way is (sorry, gotta call it) just a plain lie.

Lyle charges his Mini-E daily. He seems to be still among us, his house has not burnt down, his car or office building has not exploded. Others on this site have described how safe and downright pleasant it is to charge an electric vehicle. Youtube has a number of videos showing safe EV charging. I’ve just offered proof that what you posted is wrong and purposely misleading (shame on you) so where is your “opinion” about PBP coming from?

By the way, there are a number of news items about vehicles exploding while fueling with fossil fuels. You are trying to use what’s wrong with your side to bash the “other” side.
+1 solo Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:44 pm

I have to agree with Dan Pettit on this one. Any battery swapping station is ripe for disaster. An unmanned automated robotic system changing a battery that weighs hundreds of pounds while you sit in the car?

The what if’s are endless.

What if the mechanism miss aligns with the car and damages it? What if the replacement battery is only partially charged? What if the replacement battery is crap and wont hold a charge? What if the mechanism stops when the power goes out, preventing the car from moving? Now imagine the driver trying to escape from the vehicle and falling out into the basement floor or getting entangled with the battery lift JUST as the power comes on?

Battery swapping may indeed have a place, but it will not be a replacement for a gas station. The place will be for a utility, or a LOCAL delivery company like UPS, USPS, FED-EX, etc.

Hell, look at the ’swapping stations’ we have now. Namely, 20# propane tanks used on gas grills and small campers. We had a situation here recently where these so called ‘fully charged’ tanks were no where near full. You can’t tell because there is no gauge on a propane tank. Just like there is no gauge on a swapped battery.

I would also like to comment on the idea that electric cars are maintenance free. I guarantee you they will be made to require maintenance. Electric motors of all types today are NOT maintenance free. Brushes need replaced, bearings wear, etc. The electric control units will fail, at considerable expense. The batteries themselves will fail, at even more expense. Most of the money I spend on car maintenance has nothing to do with the engine other than oil and coolant changes. In the last 10 years, I have bought about 40 tires, 6 pairs of suspension struts, repaired several times, (at 500 to 1000 dollars a pop), the air conditioning system. I have also replaced electric (YES ELECTRIC) motors for both power windows, cooling fan, and power seats. I have replaced alternators (which may still exist even in an electric car, depending on the design) twice. Now count the fan belts, wiper blades, blue juice, car washes, etc. I figure the drive train maintenance accounts for about 20% of my car maintenance. That 20% may be reduced by an electric motor, control unit, battery, but it won’t be eliminated. Unless the price of batteries comes WAY down and the reliability goes WAY up, electric cars, per mile, could wind up costing more, much more.
CS Guy Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:55 pm

Renting a car for long trips also keeps your insurance on your OWN car lower (fewer miles driven per year).

And it is nice to check out the different types of vehicles, sort of an extended test drive if you will.
Dan Petit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 8:59 pm

Plugging in a cord, is

not

the same as exchanging out a battery pack.

That is the part of Better Place that I have been talking about.

Investment is not just for one part of what a Corporation does with investors money. Investors money is all too casually used for anything a board of directors wants. Jets, vacation homes, etc.

My experience with battery changes is not widely held by many others, but, I have not any desire whatsoever to scare anyone. That proposal is going to hit the brick wall of safety regulators, so you need not at all be scared. You ought to be concerned if you’ve already invested into that, however.

The article describing battery changes implied that there might be several of these changes per week for a BEV.

You are also talking about the fatigue of holding bolts and mount threads from repeated torsional stresses, disruptions and wear of contact surfaces, and on and on and on. GM advises us that a pigtail connector, for example, although low voltage, needs to be replaced if it has been connected and disconnected three times.
GM sets industry standards due to their engineering wisdom. GM has no desire to sell anyone anything they do not need whatsoever.

A company that is only doing charging stations would be fine.
That would be great. But changing out of large battery packs repeatedly, even more than half a dozen times a year is a BAD BAD BAD idea.

And, I re-affirm once again my technical opinion.
Tagamet Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:02 pm

Koz said:
Tag, now that I have you hear, would I have to have shame in order to make a shameless comment? If so, I’ll have to thank Statik.

Besides a comment such as “it’s not like a ten loop death knot” would show even less shame so my previous comments must have had some shame.

Koz,
I’m pretty sure that there are some excellent medication(s) for this kind of post (lol).
And now, back to our previously coherent (everything’s relative) thread….
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!
DanPetit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:35 pm

You haven’t bought into it have you? If so, I’d get out if I were you.
statik Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:40 pm

You guys are so immature…anything to keep the thread going. Lyle clearly didn’t intent his new format to be used a plaything. (;
CS Guy Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:42 pm

In the past, I may have been skeptical of the probability of success of Project Better Place but just putting those words in a post causes such a flurry of activity. They must be onto something really, really good.

I wish them great success here in the USA. So far they have Portland, San Francisco, maybe Seattle (not sure on that one) and the State of Hawaii. I hope they come to Texas! And don’t forget Vancouver, BC.
+2 DanPetit Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:44 pm

Koz,

Look at every technical detail, and, when safety regulators get involved, it will all come out. It’s one of those things that you have to hear from about 12 different sources.

If it were feasible, I would be one of the first to shout out a “congrats”.

People who know how to use the laws of physics to problem solve will always have good jobs when those jobs are those that no one else wants to do or can do.

Far less reliable are unmanned machines to do work for dangerous jobs. You can perfectly plug something in.
Machines can build cars, but the assembly line is a highly controlled sequence constantly maintained by real people.

Unmanned battery swap stations aren’t going to get the pulblics confidences, and, of that I am absolutely not the least bit doubtful nor concerned. Just don’t invest in it is my advice.
+1 statik Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 9:54 pm

What 2051?

Zenn powered by EEStor is the winner here, the voting already closed. We all are clearly just trying to block out this harsh reality. We only have 2, maybe 3 more months of delusional thinking time left…how can the Volt hope to compete at all:
————-
For launch Fall of 2009, the cityZENN:
(from March 28th, 2008):

“….a fully certified, highway capable vehicle with a
top speed of 125 KPH/ 80 MPH and a range or 400 kilometres/250 miles. Powered by EEStor, the cityZENN will be rechargeable in less than 5 minutes, feature operating costs 1/10th of a typical internal combustion engine vehicle and be 100% emission-free! The Zero-Emission, No-Noise cityZENN will be designed to meet the transportation requirements of a large percentage of drivers worldwide.”

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Zenn-Motor-Company-TSX-VENTURE-ZNN-837653.html

/recognize

Sidenote: I already have like 4 of them, and almost all Canadians have at least 1, because they are made up here, and they only cost like $1,500 a pop…they are pretty awesome. I just wish I was allowed to show them to you, but it is some pretty advanced stuff, so I have to abide by the NDA I, and all my fellow Canadians signed. I just wish they didn’t take 5 minutes to charge, I mean my time is important.
Tagamet Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 10:18 pm

He said, adding to the ever-spiralling thread…(lol).
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!
+1 Dave K. Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 10:21 pm

Honey, you can drive my CR-V. But don’t touch my Volt.
____________________________

We are getting some very good input here at GM Volt dot com. Both real world winners and science fantasy. A continuing flow of positive comments from many potential buyers as well as toxic elements from rivals.

Fritz Henderson says he will listen, move quickly, and be customer friendly as a highest priority.

It is obvious from this thread that most folks have yet to place a down payment on any new EV. Most are in wait n’ see mode. Armed with this knowledge, NGMCO needs to turn the creativity dial a click or two.

The biggest single deciding point for someone buying a Volt or not buying a Volt is the question of a tax credit. If NGMCO and Uncle Sam can change this to an instant rebate then Uncle Sam is likely to get his bail out money back. If not, then we may as well keep beating the Japanese and Korean war drum. Yes, it’s as simple as this.

BTW: It’s proper for Lyle to get a free Volt for his years of effort. I suggest Volt #100. We don’t want to see a thread based on Lyle’s inability to buy a Volt at full price, do we?

=D~
-2 James E Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 10:35 pm

For will win…A Hybrid and a EREV are very similar. They both have an ICE. One powers a generator while the other powers the transmission. When ford starts selling their plug in Fusion it will have a bigger electric motor to drive faster and further in “Electric Only” mode. You will drive 30 mi in electric mode then it will go into hybrid mode.

Therefore it is similar to the Volt and it will eliminate the “Range Anxiety”. Ford is ahead because they are using an existing platform instead of designing it from ground up. Ford already has the Plug in Fusion on the road (Test fleet) but we do not see it because it looks like the hybrid that is already on the market. Oh…and by the way the price is not $45,000. That is going to be the deal breaker for the Volt.

I personally would like to have either one so we will see who is first to market at the right price.

NPNS!!!!
newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:26 pm

so charge your depleted BEV with solar power in the middle of the dessert?,…c’mon man!…with how much solar panel can you fold and carry and unfold it when your BEV is depleted?, you need to employ SUPERMAN to carry them for you if you need to charge it right away…if you have an electric scooter you might get out of it….do the math…how much time or days do you need to charge your BEV in daytime if ever the suns’ come out with your foldable solar fukin-panel….geeeezzzz!
jeffhre Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:29 pm

I think for a couple in a household; an EV car for local commuting and errands and an EREV purchased after Chevy has driven the costs down (a la the HSD that Toyota has made relatively affordable) could be nearly ideal as long one of the two is consistently able to deal with shorter range. I could see household members switching back and forth depending on required daily range. In that sense I see utility as more important than marketing, but VCR vs Betamax wars showed that better technology could be beaten by savvy marketing that saturates the market and results in the critical mass that absorbs all the necessary dollars needed to create requisite infrastructure and consumer support investments. OK Lets move on —— Nothing much more to see in these comments!
jeffhre Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:34 pm

That’s a good idea. Then go off road and see how much shakin’ they can really handle!
-1 newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:34 pm

any update about that Better Place concept you are talking about?…how many billion of dollars and years of building infrastructure to go towards that CONCEPT? thats idea is to be realized on 2025 as he said…well you better start sucking your thumb now old man!
newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:40 pm

the VOLT is a goverment car now, i believe that if the government would buy these car nationwide as a replacement for the old cars of the government, well thats a good start right there…
-1 newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:47 pm

and how about the extra bulk of battery you have to compensate your 100 mile range, if you only travel 40 miles everyday + range anxiety….think of the scenario that you just forget to charge your car overnight or a blackout out or you just stupid enough to just forget and lazy…… i just hate the feeling of trying to figure out how to beg to a strangers house or a store to plug-in and recharge my BEV….unless you are used to beg youll be fine…
-1 newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:50 pm

because iMiEV is a joke…thats what happen if you add range…$50k….thats why i love to have an EREV when its available…
jeffhre Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:54 pm

Perhaps automakers will gain some knowledge by pushing these vehicles too soon (shades of EV1), but it seems to me that if not for the PR and the government money the proper way to do this would have been to produce profitable/affordable high mileage ICE and hybrids while developing the required battery tech.
________________
The exact same argument was used when the Prius was introduced (except you could substitute -gas and diesel- for -high mileage ICE’s and hybrids-, and -the required hybrid tech- instead of -battery tech-). But Toyota took that risk and at generation three of the Prius the whole thrust of the conversation has changed to emphasize a profitable hybrid whose sales have increased by 9% while the entire new car market is down nearly 40%.

Hopefully GM will be able to do something similar with gens II and III of the Volt!
-1 newbie Says:
July 12th, 2009 at 11:56 pm

then buy the $50k+ friggin iMiEV and experience the full wrath of range anxiety,…blog those who experienced it (tesla owners)…
jeffhre Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 12:04 am

We’re not subsidizing the cars we are subsidizing the externalities. My analogy would be it’s like eating cheap fattening food instead of some wholesome and healthy and fresh but expensive meals. Then when we have a problem that comes from that diet we can pay to go to a top medical center for help or grab some cheap drugs from an unregulated overseas internet based vendor. Take the second options and we will have more cash in the bank but less likely time to enjoy it.
newbie Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 12:09 am

it is just a concept to standarize the shape of rechargeable batteries for all electric cars, its like mandating all EV companies to make their EV batteries the same shape and design…….thats almost impossible to do you know it…..the only way to make that concept work is to get BILL GATES for funding and build their mass produced ‘Better Place EV’s’, sell it below $20k, and build ‘Swapping Stations’ every 100 mile radius everywhere…..and then you have to ask yourself WHEN?….
Zach Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 12:17 am

lol. If I travel 40 miles a day, I wouldn’t have range anxiety… as I know I would make it home without question.

Charging the car every night would be as programmed in my brain as setting my alarm every morning. No possible way I would forget it unless I was drunk, in which case I could sacrifice driving the following day

Granted, much of the population falls far below in comparison to intellect, so I truly understand your point.

To answer your other post, I wouldn’t pay more than $15,000 for a 100mi EV for two reasons. #1, I don’t make enough money, #2, $50 grand for a piece of shit foreign EV that only makes 100mi? lol.
+1 Steven B Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 12:27 am

Finance a car? Are you nuts? People need to stop worrying about credit, and start saving their money before its time to buy a car. Thats the only way to get of the debt treadmill.
texas Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 2:17 am

So now you are claiming to not only be a technical expert you are now claiming to be a financial expert as well? Your arrogance is showing.

Are you the same guy that said an EV chassis would not be able to be made strong enough? Now that swap stations have been successfully demonstrated you are now talking about weak electrical connections? lol.
+2 Dave K. Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 4:57 am

Battery swap stations….

I saw the video with the robot performing the battery swap. This would work if it happened less often. Maybe every three or four months. The twice per week swap dance isn’t going to go over well with the ladies. They will take a stock Mini or Civic over the battery swap system. I still think Volt sales could ignite into a Beanie Baby frenzy.

=D~
+2 ozonelevel Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 5:32 am

Better place is a crap idea, probably worse than the idea of building a hydrogen distribution system.
+2 Rashiid Amul Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 6:01 am

Texas,
The only thing I see wrong the Project Better Place is its complete lack of infrastructure across the USA.

For now, the argument is a moot point. The car makers are blazing their own path with battery design. Project Better Place is going to struggle to keep those different size batteries and connectors in stock.
Personally, I don’t see Project Better Place working in a country this size.
But I have been wrong in the past, and time will tell.
+1 jonboinAR Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 6:30 am

What a great marketing point! I can just hear the salesman. “Look, Buddy, You wanna go over a hundred miles? Rent a genset and trailer.” Yeah, that’ll sell a lot of them. (Sorry for the sarcasm, but I felt it made the point.)
+2 Jim I Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 7:03 am

I love the threads that say “It Is All About Price!!”

No it isn’t….

If it was all about price, the the RIO, Aveo, Cobalt, etc would be the cars we all drive. But they aren’t.

http://www.ftc.gov/bcp/edu/pubs/consumer/autos/aut11.shtm

And having to produce a profit on the first model doesn’t always have to be the rule either. Sometimes new tech has to be pushed on an unfamiliar public, until they can begin to see the benefit.

Just don’t put out a piece of junk, just to lower the cost by $1K. I am willing to pay, but it has to be quality that I am paying for…..

But to answer the initial question of “Who Will Win?”

We all do. More choices means more availability to purchase the vehicle that is right for each of us. If a 100 mile AER BEV is the right car for you, buy it! If the versatility of an E-REV is what you need and want, buy it! If the proven track record of a parallel hybrid with plug in upgrade option makes you feel more secure, buy it!

We just need to get these cars out there on the road, folks!

And the sooner, the better, because on this, I am not kidding, so listen up Mr. Henderson: NPNS!!!!!
Marc Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 10:00 am

There are a few other players as well. Aptera has an all electric, Chineese have some models, although they are not high end, and Chrysler has had a few on display. The technology is relatively simple, a friend of mine converted a S10 pickup to all electric, in his spare time. It’s likley quite a bit simpler than internal combustion.

It’s just a matter of time, the market will decide.
N Riley Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 10:01 am

“So who will be the winner here, and is there room for them all?”
————————————–

Of course their is room for them all. As to the “winner”, they could all be classified as winners, if they are accepted by the buying public. And that is where it is important. To be accepted by the “buying” public.
EVO Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 10:50 am

Sorry, but here’s an earlier more in depth article using the same comparative concept. Does someone owe someone else a royalty?

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/01/autos/electric_cars_strategy/
EVO Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 12:20 pm

Remember how you felt about shifting while stopped pointed uphill on a steep hill the very first time you tried a stick? Do you feel that same way now, with more experience and some behavior modification to work with the shifting system, rather than independent of/against it?

I have no range anxiety, but I’m an experienced electric vehicle (highway capable motorcycle) user. Perhaps the range extender is most accurately thought of as training wheels or Linus’ blanket. Remember how Linus felt when his blanket was in the wash, though. So you won’t hear any hate from me towards those folks who want the range extender option that Voltec offers. For me, it will be a mere temporary (but yes, desireable to some extent for now) luxury convenience while recharging stations, fast recharging and power pack swapping eventually become ubiquitous, certainly not a necessity.
canehdian Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 2:16 pm

Didn’t have time to read all the posts, so if someone else said this, I agree.

I personally will go with a Focus EV unless it’s priced very closely to the volt, then I’d go with that. Why? Because I rarely (maybe once a year?) drive more than 160km. When that happens, I’ll rent a car or use a friend’s/family members.

The Focus EV gives me enough range to drive into Toronto and back without needing to charge. That’s zero gas used for an entire worker’s commute for the millions of people that come in from the edges of the GTA into the city. Imagine the savings.

Oh, And I’ll never buy a Nissan because they’re the same people that concocted something as hideous as the cube. I’d rather not support something like that…
Koz Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 2:46 pm

short Zenn?
EVO Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 2:54 pm

In a hundred years. this is how people will view today’s hybrids. Yes, the ICE is the horse’s, er, head, adding weight and detracting from performance:

http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1658545_1657686,00.html

And you think the cube is hideous.
Alex Besogonov Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 3:17 pm

As an engineer: “YES YOU CAN!”

Just do not do it naively!

Suppose that a high-voltage plug survives only 500 replacements (probably an accurate estimate).

Now use a two-level system where the first plug is connected to the main power system of a car via the SECOND plug (of course, minding mechanical load, etc).

So now you can replace the first plug without messing with high-voltage cables. And if the second plug can also survive 500 replacements, you’ll get 25000 replacements total. More than enough.
steel Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 3:29 pm

“And we may get better ways of converting bio/synfuels to electricity than an ICE genset. ”

We already have them. Type #2 Fuel Oil (very similar to Diesel Fuel) can generate around 20 kWh using the very best Combined Cycle plants. Assuming 90% transmission and 95% charging efficieny, thats still 17kWh delievered to a battery… or ~85 Volt miles…. Diesel, even with a Hybrid system OR running steady state, will have difficulty matching this.
EVO Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 3:47 pm

I just saw the citiation at the bottom of the article. I retract my snarky comment above and apologize.
EVO Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 4:11 pm

Right.

Carburetor technology is now … fuel injection is later…maybe after 15 years?

What? Some vehicles have fuel injection now and some, but not all, vehicle users prefer fuel injection while others prefer carburetors and some have two vehicles, one with a carburetor and one with fuel injection? I’m shocked.

Disclaimer: I have two vehicles with fuel injection, two vehicles with neither fuel injection or carburetors and no vehicles with carburetors as they don’t work well upside down at high altitude.
canehdian Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 4:18 pm

The difference is, the “horseless carriage” was a revolution. (throwing a head on just kind of bridged the gap :p)
Making a box-car is going back on the evolution of the car.. boxes on wheels are so very 80’s (or 1900’s.. lol). New, modern cars are sleek and curvy. Why on earth would you go to a brick on wheels. And I’m just talking aesthetics alone, not even touching on aerodynamics…
EVO Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 4:30 pm

The crystal ball is real clear on this one.

Every vehicle maker is going with electric drive, pure or plus their inate strengths.

For some, that’s among a whole slew of energy carriers, from various battery chemistries and management systems, clean diesel, non-food crop biofuels, lpg (propane), cng, compressed air, etc. and the engines/generators required to use them in concert with electric drive.

For the rest, its pure electric drive, the easiest, or the void.
EVO Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:01 am

Many small commercial businesses and government agencies want a small panel van with vertical walls for light around town lower speed (in which case aerodynamics is much less important) hauling. Things like the Nissan Cube and Scion xB meet that practical criterea and with short around town daily ranges required by those businesses and governments in extremely high population density areas with lots of people trying to breathe, full electric is a good match as well. If you are not a florist, cake maker, delivery agent, etc., you might not want one of them, but that sure doesn’t mean that there’s not a decent sized market for them. Functionality and small businesses actually still have a role in society, even if they offend your sensibilities.
MuddyRoverRob Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:10 am

Unless their child is sick and they HAVE to…
MuddyRoverRob Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:20 am

This weekend I covered ~1200km in our 2002 Subaru Impreza on ~70 litres of fuel. Each stop (2) requiring less time for the car than for the people. Total on-road travel time 12 hours through mountain passes and a fairly incredible range of weather from +30c and sunny to +5c and pouring rain.

An EREV Volt could have pulled off this silly drive without issue, a BEV wouldn’t be home yet.
MuddyRoverRob Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:24 am

I bet the Gen 2 or 3 Volt (or successor) will hit the high $20k price range.

The $40k Volt is much like the $20k Plasma TV of the not too recent past… the price comes down with production and experience.
MuddyRoverRob Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:36 am

Absolutely!

There is NO problem building a 200 mile electric car.
It’s easy to do.

Of course it will have room (sort of) for one, no cargo capability and rudimentry at best HVAC and be limited to low speeds.

There ARE a few enthusiasts who would be happy with that sort of thing, but I wouldn’t be.

I’ll buy a Volt thank you very much.
Raymond Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:55 pm

I think that until there’s a charge station at every street corner and recharge can be done in less than 10 minutes, “range anxiety” will be a factor for the average consumer. I also think that gas companies are well-aware of this and guess what? Those charge stations will probably be situated… right beside the gas pump. That’s the way I’d do it if I owned a gas station. What? you don’t think gas companies are gonna move back to wherever they came from with their tails between their legs do you!?! They’ll just charge double the going rate for electricity which will still be a lot less than gas. What? You think you’ll be plugging-in for free at work? Guess again. Still, I got my name on one of those babies as soon as they are availble in my neck of the woods… for less than $35K.
EVO Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:36 pm

Jim I’s claimed response here that first time with a gasser stick shift trying to start going up from a stop halfway up a steep hill, from the Nissan thread, would have been to state “the car is supposed to work for me, not the other way around”, put on the parking brake and walk off, leaving the gasser stranded on the steep hill.
EVO Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 5:35 pm

A commercial plane travels that very long distance much faster (about one sixth the time), so based on your fastest wins criterea both your Subaru full gasser and a ER EV are total failures.

True enough, the BEV owner would be at a resort in the hot tub after a pleasant dinner, getting ready to soundly sleep, knowing the way their vehicle works, while a valet in white kid gloves is recharging it overnight for the next day’s scenic meander. Don’t forget to live while you’re alive.

Look, I’m not trying to bash ER EVs but please realize that every single attempt to bash BEVs will backfire if you apply the bashing logic used to all vehicles. Please just stick to promoting ER EVs if you like them. I like them too.

Go, Volt.
Mark Z Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 6:07 pm

No range anxiety is a major selling point for VOLT. Unless a BEV has a huge surplus of power (ie: Tesla model S w/ 300 mi option) E-REV is critical.

Segway helped my range anxiety when switching from 10 mile NiHM to 24 mile Li-ion. Having double the power required allows for full speed operation at all times with no concern about walking home!
Paul A Says:
July 16th, 2009 at 2:02 am

Has everyone forgotten the Volvo Recharge?

It was a concept car that came out a couple of years ago that used a series hybrid design (very much like the Volt), but was driven by electric motors in the wheels themselves. They’ve been quiet for a while now, but they might come out with something a couple years from now.

I could see them having major success with it.
Ken Grubb Says:
July 16th, 2009 at 11:39 am

Of course there’s room for all of them. Hybrids, plugin hybrids and pure EVs.

Some people are gonna resist plugging in for a while, and unplugged full hybrids like the Prius and Fusion will continue to do well.

Others, like me, are gonna willingly plug in, but still harbor some range anxiety so we’ll opt for PHEVs, E-REVs, and other plugged in hybrids–be they serial or parallel.

Finally, some are already driving NEVs so it’s a fairly easy sell to add 100 miles of range and highway speed capability.
David L Says:
July 16th, 2009 at 3:07 pm

I believe the winner should be the consumer.

I don’t think the Volt will provide adequate transportation without requiring families to have an additional vehicle (gas) for both size and distance reasons.

I believe an Extended Range EV should target the size of the 7 passenger Buick Rendezvous with middle and back seats folding down. With the right focus on safety it would be the ideal vehicle for a much larger market than the Volt. This would also be applicable to the Fuel Cell.

Also I don’t feel safe in any small vehicle.
sharyn Says:
July 18th, 2009 at 1:53 am

i thank its great
grupa jurgena Says:
August 15th, 2009 at 7:00 am

Wygra wyścig i my będziemy rozdawać karty Przyłączymy się do tych, którzy rozpoczną najtańszy samochód elektryczny o masowej produkcji nasz wkład to nowe urządzenie, które pozwoli tym samochodom na nieograniczony zasięg, to nie tylko samochody, ale autobusy samochody ciężarowe to będzie nowy kierunek światowego rozwoju
Ross Nicholson Says:
September 23rd, 2009 at 1:18 am

GM needs to make a stripped down millivolt for young people to ride. Hold the amenities. It should be mostly enclosed and get 1000 miles per gallon equivalent.

GM should allow for regular household generators to be carried by the Volt instead of having their own fixed internal combustion engine on board. Downsize the car until it works.

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The Electric Car Race is Underway, Who Will Win?

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