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Toyota Commits to Mass Production of Plug-in Hybrids

July 4th, 2009 | Posted in: Competitors, PHEV

The Volt is GM’s effort to leapfrog the Prius, and ever since this site began, Toyota has publicly remained very conservative about plans to produce plug-in cars.

Previously they have only openly committed to produce about 500 plug-in Priuses for global fleet testing by the end of this year.

According to the Japanese newspaper Nikkei, that’s all about to change.

Toyota has now committed to mass producing plug-in hybrid cars in 2012. These cars will apparently be plug-in hybrids, not pure electrics or EREVs. The company intends to produce from 20,000 to 30,000 in the first year. They are expected to be able to drive from 12.4 to 18.6 miles on battery power alone. Of course like most plug-in hybrid designs, the gas engine could operate even within that range when needed for power.

Toyota has already well-established a joint venture with Panasonic for the production of lithium-ion batteries to power these cars.

Toyota is also said to want to price the car similarly to the Mitubishi i MiEV 100 mile range pure electric car which has already gone on sale in Japan. That vehicle costs $47,800 before subsidies.

Thus Toyota has now joined the growing list of automakers hoping to mass produce electric cars. Though the EREV design of the Chevy Volt may be the most logical, there will clearly be some very significant competition of all types in a few short years.

And so it is clear on this Independence Day that this country’s freedom from oil may fast become a reality. Happy 4th of July to all.

Source (Reuters)

Posted by: Lyle

141 Responses to “Toyota Commits to Mass Production of Plug-in Hybrids”

+3 ziv Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:50 am

Bring it on! By 2012 there should be a decent amount of choices, EREV vs. plug ins. 18 miles AER won’t do it for me, even the 40′ish AER for the Volt could be improved, but there is always room for competition. What is it, 10% or 20% of american commuters drive less than 15 miles a day? Whatever the percentage, the less expensive Toyota plug in could work well for them.
+2 Boycott GM Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:53 am

I hope only Ford can survive and prosper, because they didn’t get bailout like the other Loser Two
+14 xed Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:03 am

This is all good news. The more auto companies that start thinking “electric is the selling point” regardless of their implementation is a move in the right direction.
+4 nasaman Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:03 am

I completely agree, ziv! ….And one of those choices will hopefully be based on the newest vehicle GM has introduced since the reorganization started, the 2010 Chevy Equinox crossover with the small 2-mode drive, a large lithium battery and a PLUG! (Most of the design & testing has already been done on the virtually-identical Saturn Vue Plug-in.)
JEC Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:14 am

Well, at least not yet.

I would be very surprised if Ford is not standing, hat in hand, at the taxpayer trough, in the very near future. How can they compete with other car makers who have received large infusions of cash and has the govt backing them to succeed.

While I am impressed the Ford has held out this long, I am not confident they can continue w/o some sort of Govt assistance to balance the equation.

JMHO, of course! Have a Happy 4th!
-1 old man Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:19 am

Not yet, I fear is the correct thing to say. Do hope I am wrong!!!
+2 Starcast Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:24 am

“Whatever the percentage, the less expensive Toyota plug in could work well for them”

What makes you think it will be less expensive?

The last I seen Toy was looking ar 42K for the plug in
+5 Red HHR Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:24 am

Anything that relives us from our dependence on oil is a good thing.
Go Toyota! Go Volt! Go Lyle! Have a Happy Fourth.

/the stone age did not end for the lack of stones
+5 mikeinatl. Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:27 am

It may not be that important a point, but that plug-in Toyota in the picture above is kinda goofy lookin.

Especially when compared to the Volt.
+4 iRoc Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:36 am

I’m a “VOLT” man !
+1 Red HHR Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:36 am

Actually I was hoping to see a Lyle test drive of the newest Volt mule today. Maybe later.

Also I know that they are for different markets, however I think it would be interesting to see a head to head comparison of the Volt to the Camaro, carbon footprint and all. Would a Volt that used electricity powered by coal(or other sources) have a lesser carbon footprint than a Camaro? How about a the cost of the carbon reduction? Or if I drove a Camaro how many carbon offsets would I have to buy to equal the green footprint of the Volt?

/Anyway I was hoping to see red white and blue Volts today. Maybe next year.
Todd Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:36 am

Ford must file BK. There is no way that Ford can afford to continue to build cars when the other two now have a much lower labor cost. Ford will not be able to compete with these two. Do you think the UAW is going to give in to Ford’s request to lower their labor costs, just because GM and Chrysler had to break the UAW strangle hold? Also as of last month Ford taped its last 10 billion in loans. Ford is still not showing a profit and is not expected to until early next year. Ford can not survive that long and it would not be in Ford’s best interest to try and do so. All Ford has done by claiming they are not using government funding is to extend their death at the hands of the UAW. This will occur especially if GM and Chrysler come out of BK quickly, which appears to be what is happening. GM and Chrysler will be able to produce vehicles much cheaper than Ford can. Ford, like GM has greatly improved their quality, but it won’t carry them through this.
Van Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:43 am

Great article Lyle, have a very happy independence day!!!
+1 RB Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:43 am

nasaman,
let me be sure I have this straight. There will be a 2010 Chevy Equinox PLUG-IN? 2010? Really? When will this vehicle be for sale?
+4 Todd Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:43 am

Why would I buy a car that needs to be plugged in for only 12 to 16 miles of 30mph or less speed of travel? That just doesn’t make sense to me. Bring on the Volt please. I think Toyota is seeing the effect that GM saw when the Prius was introduced – Oh no, we’re falling behind what the public wants!

It is said the Volt is a game changer, and the effects are starting to show. Though I’m disappointed in the government bail out and that GM now stands for Government Motors, I’m happy to see GM did have it right with the Volt, they were just late getting into the game.

With proper marketing the Volt will be a complete success.
+4 Dale Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:45 am

Sure would love to see a plug-in or Voltec based Chevy crossover !!!!!
+4 Schmeltz Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:47 am

Nice to see Toyota commiting to the Plug-in movement. I don’t be-grudge Toyota for doing this. As said on this site many times before, for every plug-in car that comes to the market, also comes a validation of the technology in general. When the rubber finally hits the road, we’ll be able to see for sure how the differing approaches compare to one another. The plug-in Prius should be a formidable competitor to the Volt, although I still think the EREV is the better of the two differing schools of thought.

Goes without saying I guess, but I’ll say it anyway….GM needs to keep on its toes, and figure the Voltec platform for multiple vehicles.
+2 RB Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:55 am

Lyle said Though the EREV design of the Chevy Volt may be the most logical, there will clearly be some very significant competition of all types in a few short years.
———————————————————-

Amazing things pushed forward by Bob Lutz, Wagoner, GM, the Volt design team, Lyle and rag-tag bloggers — not a particularly unified or beautiful combination, but making amazing things happening.
+10 Tagamet Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:57 am

Todd, it’s my understanding that the Prius is being opened up to go faster in the all-electric mode.
I agree thought that that range is meager and not much of a selling point.
Be well,
Tagamet

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY and thanks to all the people who gave so much to protect our Freedom. No Vets, No Freedom
Van Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:00 am

20,000 to 30,000 Plug-in Priuses in 2012, whereas our expectation is 60,000 Volts in 2012. Since the prototype test vehicles, using two NiMH batteries had a range of 7-8 miles, it looks like the Prius will indeed sport a lithium battery with an initial capacity of 6 or so kWh, and a SOC use window of about 4 kWh.

I could make no sense of the cost numbers, since the $47,000 number was (1) before government incentives and (2) only “comparable.” Since we could compare apples to oranges, that leaves us pretty close to nowhere on expected price. If the cost of the battery is $1000 per kWh, then the price premium would be at least $5000 over the $22,000 non plug in 2010 Prius. Still, with a USA government incentive of $3000, it looks pretty good for those whose daily commute runs 10 to 20 miles.
+4 nasaman Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:04 am

Sorry, RB, after it could no longer be edited I re-read my comment above & realized it could be misleading. The key phrase was, “hopefully be based on ….. the 2010 Chevy Equinox”. IOW, because the new Equinox is essentially identical to the 2009 Saturn Vue, which went thru extensive testing as a PLUG-IN 2-mode hybrid, I’m hopeful the new Equinox will offer that same drive train (because the resulting crossover CUV should be able to tow 3,500 lbs, haul a family of 5 & lots of stuff while still achieving about 75 mpg)
+2 Larry McFall Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:07 am

Competition is the name of the game however, this should not be the issue with GM for they should be keeping their goal(s) in sight and keep progressing with their VOTEC concept. Others are going to smell profit and want a piece of the action. I still see the VOLT as being the best looking with best EV Techology and of course, I am just partial for success for an auto company that represented the best in this country to me for so many years. Hopefully GM can rise to that level again and not be so concerned about the Toyotas of the world.

Toyota is in deed an important company in our “World Auto Industry” with global infusion of products as much as GM is in Asia but, I would like to see GM be the US Flag Auto Industry and the VOLT being the US Flag EV.
+4 ziv Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:09 am

Are you serious?! 18 miles AER and it costs more than a Volt? I thought the plug in Prius would cost $30,000 or less.
On the EREV development, I think Nasaman is right on the money, build a Compact SUV next, GM could sell 10,000 the first month. It might require an 18-19 kWh battery pack to hit the sweetspot, i.e. nearly 40 miles AER, but CUV’s are expensive and the EREV price premium would be less noticeable than the comparison of Toyota’s existing eco-friendly champion and the Volt.
Ford has a real winner in the Ford Fusion Hybrid, but it is around $4000 more than a Prius, so it is not getting the attention it deserves. I would love to see Ford build the 2011 FFH with a larger LiIon battery and expand its all electric capability, which could in turn increase its combined EPA mileage. People want to save money by using less gasoline, so having to spend an extra $4000 to do so makes the decision that much more difficult. Which is why GM really needs to work on reducing the price of the Volt…
old man Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:17 am

I do not know but do wonder just how well the Japanese do at exporting their cars to China and Korea. I would not be surprised if those countries get a bit upset at the multi tiered import system that Japan has that makes imports so very expensive.

If anybody knows I would appreciate a reply.
RB Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:20 am

nasaman — thanks for the clarification. I share you hope.
+4 CDAVIS Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:22 am

______________________________________________________
I’m glad to see Toyota abandoning their long standing anti plug-in position.

Toyota adding a plug to the Prius will create an opportunity for the consumer to contrast the benefits of a Parallel Plug-In (Toyota Prius) vs. a Series Plug-In (Chevy Volt). That represents a BIG problem for Toyota because a Series Plug-In will inherently (at several levels) outperform a Parallel Plug-In. The guys at Toyota are not dumb therefore I find it hard to believe that Toyota will allow itself to get exposed like that. I’m guessing that they are working on some kind of plan to get into the plug-in business by 2012 other than just adding more battery and a plug to the Prius. If Toyota is capable of reversing its legacy stance of being anti plug-in perhaps they plan to also reverse their stance of being anti Series Hybrid.

How Toyota decides to navigates these next 3 years of the Electric Car Revolution will determine if Toyota will maintain the reputation of being the front runner in electric hybrids.
—

Happy 4th Everyone!….
On this day of celebrating America’s declaration of independence, I like to think that our forth-fathers would be proud of the many individuals here on GM-Volt.com fighting to declare American Energy Independence.
_____________________________________________________
+3 Geo Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:29 am

Ford just got a $5.9 billion loan to build EV’s and fuel efficient cars. I think they’ll be just fine.
+3 Van Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:42 am

The Series Hybrid will “inherently outperform (at several levels) the parallel Plug-in.” That viewpoint may be valid. Lets see if we can list these performance benefits.

(1)In Charging depleting mode (or EV mode with the ICE using no gas) the Series design since it has a larger motor, will accelerate faster.

(2) The parallel design used in the Prius limits top speed in EV mode to below 62 MPH. However, hackers have reached greater than 62 MPH with the ICE rotating but with the gas shutoff.

(3) The Series design has a larger battery and therefore a greater AER.

(4) The series design is simpler, and therefore should have lower maintenance costs.
+2 system24 Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:45 am

Your not seeing the whole picture here Boycott..

Ford got lucky, they were not doing very well and they started a restructure and got bank loans to consolidate loans just before the crash.

Then the bottom fell out of the economy further hurting all of the 3, but GM and Chrysler were unable to get any bank loans to do what Ford did just months before. If ford would have waited just a little while longer they would be in the same boat as GM and Chrysler and not able to get any bank loans thus putting them in the same position.
+1 omnimoeish Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 9:56 am

Congrats Toyota,

Here’s what I’m curious about. By 2012, they’ll probably be about to release the 4th gen Prius! That will be another 4 years of engineering the power train for efficiency and power. It’s pretty exciting what they’ve done going from 1st gen to 2nd gen, then from 2nd to 3rd. I would guess at least 25% of the population drive less than 1m miles per day, but even after that, the car is surely optimized to get 50+ mpg so even if you commuted 10 miles each way, for a total of a 20 mile commute. You would only drive in gas mode for 2 miles, which means you would only be burning about 2 gallons of gas a month, whereas before the average driver would be burning about 1 gallon a day (considering city traffic would probably drop you down to 20 in an average car).

If the plug in Prius’s price tag stays under $25,000 base, which I imagine it will, that will change everything. The US needs a $25,000 plug in hybrid with ~15 miles AER.
-1 omnimoeish Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 10:01 am

There are some ways in which the parrallel outperforms the series hyrbids too though, like the fact that the gas engine’s power has inneficiencies as its converted to electricity. Overall, the Volt will be a superior car I’m sure, like you say, especially since the Volt’s engine runs at an optimized RPM, but I can guarantee Toyota will be making these plug ins $10,000 cheaper than the Volt ($37,500? for the Volt, vs $27,500? for the plugin Pirus). That’s a significant margin.
+7 jason M. Hendler Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 10:01 am

Toyota’s words and their actions are always two different things. I suspect that the very moment GM introduced the Volt concept design specifics, Toyota filled their shorts and started working on how to add a plug to the Prius. My evidence is how severely Watanabe criticized the Volt. It is an Asian (Sun Tsu) tactic to impede your enemy’s progress until you can catch up.

Unfortunately, the Prius configuration is a poor baseline design from which to make a plug-in hybrid. The series configuration is the best choice for a plug-on hybrid.
+2 Jackson Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 10:23 am

The Volt is a small car, and it is unlikely in the extreme that towing will be a capability it supports. As such, it’s just fine for me; but wouldn’t be a good fit for larger families who tow a boat a few times a year. This is why it is so important to have more than one make / type of electrified vehicle to choose from. I hope nasaman gets his minivan, even though it doesn’t really interest me. He’ll have a lot of company at the dealership, I expect.
+4 Randy Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 10:26 am

WHo in their right mind would pay $47000 for a prius with a 15 mile AER. Good luck with that Sale.
+2 Mike D Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 10:28 am

So toyota wants to sell a 12.4 to 18.8 mile AER prius in two and a half years for about ~$5000 more than a Volt, which will be out in a year and four months? And match the price of a 100 mile AER mitsu? Hmmm 100 miles or…about 15?

Hahaha….
+2 ziv Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 10:30 am

Reuters says Toyota is hinting that they will want $47,800 for the plug-in version of the Prius! Ouch! That can’t be right.

http://www.reuters.com/article/reuterscomService5/idUSTRE5630DY20090704
+2 Jackson Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 10:31 am

If anyone is expecting to be able to tow with a Voltec-derived CUV, it likely won’t happen until:

1) A123 / MIT energy-channel lithium batteries (or an equivalent) are available to augment the other types in a pack

2) Voltec supports a larger (or more than one) drive motor.

This is unlikely to appear even by Gen II

Not that this won’t be awesome in the extreme when it does …
+3 Jackson Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 10:40 am

The Plug-In Prius will be largely limited by the capability of a current Prius (with normal, evolutionary enhancements over the next three years) but with a charger and larger battery.

Volt is a whole new approach.

While Toyota is limited to annotating the past, GM is writing a whole new chapter.
+1 carcus1 Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 10:43 am

Big news here.

From those AER numbers I would also guess a 6kwh battery.

After the dust settles you’re probably talking about a $3,000 to $5,000 upgrade for a car that will get the average driver something close to 100 mpg during normal daily drive cycles (as long as you remember to plug it in).

And even if you forget to plug it in, you know it’s going to get 50 mpg (something that hasn’t been proven yet, in the volt).

I think this Nikkei report represents the first time big oil has heard the electric car hit the heavy bag with some impact.

I’m very much looking forward to round 1 . . . just wish I didn’t have to wait so long for the “ding, ding”.
+1 MAKE MINE EREV Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:06 am

Thanks Lyle, You are a Great American! Happy 233rd Independence Day!
+1 Herm Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:11 am

18.6 miles range requires 4.65kwh of usable capacity, derating it by 100% like GM does means a pack of 9.3kwh total capacity.. at an LG cost (no idea what Toyota will pay but probably in the ballpark) of around $800 per kwh then that is $7440 for that new pack. Substract about $2300 (the cost of a present Prius nimh pack) then that means the plug in option will cost an extra $5140. Lithium cells may be cheaper by then also.

Base price of a stripped Prius is $22k plus $5140, total will be around $27k for the plug-in Prius.

Then Hy-Motion offers a separate optional pack to increase the all-electric range.
Mike-o-Matic Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:17 am

>> No Vets, No Freedom

WORD. This bears repeating!!

Happy Independence Day everybody!
-4 Herm Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:22 am

Toyota just stealed the thunder so GM will counterattack.. if I was Lyle I would stick close to the phone today…there may be a helicopter waiting in front of his house right now!
+2 Dale Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:22 am

Happy 4th to everyone!

Thanks to all of the active and veteran servicemen.

Thanks Lyle for helping lead America to energy independence.

And Finally – I am with TAG – GM sell your first Volt in one year from today!! July 4th, 2010. I will pay extra for mine in black.
+2 statik Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:23 am

Just curious after reading the comments in this thread this far…where does it say in that article that this is going to be a plug-in Prius?

I’m not saying it isn’t…or can’t be, but it was my understanding the the plug-in Prius right now in test fleets is at best a 10 mile AER, and they are wanted to make it a consumer option in 2010.

Why would Toyota put out a fleet now, and suggest it as a option in 2010, then put out a press release saying they are going to do a 18 miler in 2012…and intend that to be a Prius also? Are they touting a 2 year delay on expectations?

…just a thought
+1 statik Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:31 am

As to pricing, I don’t want to go down the road too far again, but Japanese EVs are subsidized to ‘whazoo’ and are priced as such. A direct translation of $47,800 to the American market a little disingenuous….post rebate in Japan, that would be around $31,000. Your likely to see a similar bottom line in America…if it ever comes here (which they don’t mention).

It is also pretty hard to make a judgement on the value of the car, when we have no clue what it is, what it looks like…or what it can or can’t do.

Side note: So many EVs coming in 2012…I miss the days when we were going to have so many EVs in 2010 and 2011. Kind of reminds me watching grass grow…in the winter.
+1 Van Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:41 am

Hi Statik @ 24, (I failed to hit the reply button

Toyota built a few Plug-in Priuses, see the one pictured at top of article. These were prototypes to test the concept. They had a 2.6 NiMH battery, actually two of the 1.3 kWh standard batteries. It had a range of 7-8 miles. For some reason, folks concluded the lithium battery version would have the same range. Obviously this assumption was in error. The Plug-in Priuses (500 of them) with lithium batteries which will enter fleet sales starting in December 2009 will likely have a range similar to the range given in the article.

Second, I am not sure Toyota suggested the plug-in would be an option on the 2010 model. I had expected it on the 2011 model, but now it looks like the 2012 model. So perhaps we are looking at a 1, vice 2, year delay in expectations.
tom gray Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 12:04 pm

I see that Toyota isn’t looking to break any electric driving range records. With BOTH upcoming Chinese BYD cars sporting 60 mile ranges, Toyota is in danger of being laughed off the stage if they try to boast about their technology. Notice also the reality versus the silly nonsensical arguments contained in that fictitious Hollywood “documentary” “Who killed ..” where the leading automakers (here Toyota and Honda) resisted new electric technology and thereby led to its destruction because all of the other 24 major automakers blindly followed T & H’s lead.
Jeff Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 12:06 pm

I think that Toyota will produce similar quantities of PHEVs as GM (yes…I know that EREV is a different design)…if just for PR reasons. Due to sales volume, the non-PHEV Toyota hybrids can be considered more than just a halo vehicles. Also, Toyota PHEV would help remove a portion of the halo vehicle label on the non-PHEV Prius which would push it more into the mainstream. I think that it would help Toyota steer their customers to hybrid powertrain versions of their other models.
+2 ccombs Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 12:43 pm

I knew they would do it sooner or later. They just wanted to wait till it was a sure deal. Their design is, imho, inferior to EREV, but it will work well for a lot of people. The cost will probably come down, but since they don’t use as large of a battery the Volt’s cost will come down more quickly since it has more to gain from battery advances and won’t need a complex transmission.
+1 Herm Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 12:43 pm

“(1)In Charging depleting mode (or EV mode with the ICE using no gas) the Series design since it has a larger motor, will accelerate faster.”

This is just a design choice of the engineers and the marketing dept.. not an intrinsic benefit of either architecture.

“(2) The parallel design used in the Prius limits top speed in EV mode to below 62 MPH. However, hackers have reached greater than 62 MPH with the ICE rotating but with the gas shutoff.”

Again a design choice, and correction: the engine in the Prius DOES NOT turn when in the EV mode, even at 62mph.. The engine in the Insight does turn at all times, and same with GM’s BAS system.

“(3)” same answer

“(4) The series design is simpler, and therefore should have lower maintenance costs.”

The Prius has proven itself extremely reliable, even in taxi service.. but that may just be general made-in-Japan Toyota quality. Both designs are just as complex.

The one true advantage of the Volt’s serial architecture is flexibility, it can easily and quickly be adapted to any car. Toyota’s system requires lots of fine tuning and unique parts to adapt to a car.
Herm Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 12:50 pm

I just remembered a third way to do it, Renault’s thru-the-road parallel system. That one is fairly simple to build and fine tune.. rear wheels are electric driven and the front wheels are just a normal FWD ice setup. The disadvantage of this system is lower quality brake regen.
-2 Dan Petit Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 12:52 pm

The thing about Japan is, the country is the size of our State of Nevada. There are about 180 million people crammed onto that island. They must absolutely control what comes into Japan, because it is so expensive to have a garage or to store things.

I was astonished to know that real estate in Japan goes for something like a thousand dollars a square foot or higher. (I’ll bet someone here can correct me as to a possible far higher figure. For property at ground level, I understand that the “footprint value” might be five figures if it is an office building in Tokyo).
Of course you can not afford to bring in outside stuff into Japan for that reason. There just is not any room for anything more.

Other countries know this. I do not think Japan discriminates on purpose, but they just have to strictly control anything coming into there, due to the overpopulation.

Dan.
carcus1 Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 1:06 pm

This “spam” thing drives me nuts.
+1 Dave G Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 1:07 pm

With a typical driving pattern, assuming you only charge overnight:
Vehicle ……………… Gallons per year
Volt ………………….. 37
Prius plug-in 18.6….. 146
Prius plug-in 12.4….. 171
Prius ………………… 228
30 MPG car ………… 380
20 MPG car ………… 570

Assumptions:
Prius: 150 mpg during electric assist, 50 mpg thereafter
Volt: 40 miles all-electric range, 50 mpg thereafter
The Chevy Volt’s Electric Range is 40 Miles in Both Highway and City Driving
http://gm-volt.com/2009/04/24/the-chevy-volts-electric-range-is-40-miles-in-both-highway-and-city-driving/

Typical driving pattern:
• 30 days at 8 miles per day
• 50 days at 16 miles per day
• 240 days at 30 miles per day
• 30 days at 60 miles per day
• 3 days at 450 miles per day

11,390 total miles per year

More info here:
http://mysite.verizon.net/vzenu6hr/ebay_pictures/GallonsPerYear.xls
Dave K. Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 1:14 pm

A $40,000+ Prius?

Does Toyota realize that a stock Prius at $25,000 and 45 mpg is going to trump buyers down payments every time?

A surprising move from Toyota. It’s time to shift to EREV.

=D~
+2 carcus1 Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

From Webwire: Ford’s leading sales in Canada.

“OAKVILLE, Ontario – For the first time in more than 50 years, Ford Motor Company of Canada, Limited is the top-selling automaker in the country. Ford of Canada sold 27,408 units representing a 24.6 per cent increase over sales the same month last year, marking the first year-over-year sales increase of 2009.”

-Statik, have you got some input on this one?

//ref. all ye posters of little faith at #2
Dan Petit Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 1:16 pm

Maybe those plug-ins will be sold as mail carrier fleet vehicles.
Or very short distance fleet vehicles. That way, the limited distance of the smaller battery would seem to be practicable.
If for a mail carrier, then there would not be the cd consideration at lower speeds.

Plus, in Japan, you really don’t drive more than 3 or 4 thousand miles a year.
There is always an abundant supply of good used Japanese auto engines available here, (shipped here from Japan’s used car recycling facilities), because they are likely just broken in.

It is the salt air in Japan that severely and quickly rusts out the bodies of cars over there.

I remember when I was stationed on Okinawa, and, I had a 1967 corolla, I had to go and have 18 different annual inspections for it to keep it on the road. (I was in technology investigations counter-intelligence in the Air Force, and enjoyed every workday).

But Toyota apparently is trying. Possibly the discussions we have had here might have, in part, helped to “hold someone’s toes to the fire”, and tell us more.
But anyway, good for them. (AND, Less competition for me to get a Volt!!).
Dan.
carcus1 Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

Green-tech patents:

http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/03/gm-chrysler-lag-industry-leaders-in-green-tech-patents-study-finds.html

/I wonder if Ford and Toyota are fighting over software copyright/patents in the plug- in applications or if they have some sort of agreement in this area as well.
+1 carcus1 Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 3:04 pm

One thing that I think cannot be overstated is the importance of software development in the advancement of plug in hybrids (series/parallel as well as series).

It’s very difficult to guess what battery size is going to result in what kind of mpg because of the impact of the software (again, ford is claiming 80 to 120 mpg on the plug in escape with 10kwh of battery). With all the time and resources OEM’s can commit to writing code, the mpg’s will far exceed anything we’ve seen from aftermarket attempts by companies like hymotion (which do little or nothing to alter the software).

Here’s a separate but somewhat related video by Siemens PLM Software (a supplier to ford) that shows how rapidly software code is moving to the forefront in the auto industry.

http://www.plm.automation.siemens.com/en_us/about_us/success/case_study.cfm?ComponentTemplate=1481&Component=63184
– click the “watch video” under the picture on the right
-14 Demi More Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 3:06 pm

(click to show comment)

Go Prius. This will just be 1st gen Prius. By the time the Volt finally is for sale they will have 2nd or 3rd gen plug-in that will exceed Volt AER at a much much lower price and of course Toyota’s famous reliability (which is priceless by itself).
-2 W Ford Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 3:12 pm

You don’t know squat !
-1 DonC Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 3:15 pm

A lot of what you’re saying is true, but Ford’s success has been more than than simple luck. I’m not sure GM under Wagoner would have had the ballocks to do what Mulally has done at Ford. The Presidential Automotive Task Force seems to have reached this conclusion when deciding that they needed a new CEO. Rick Wagoner had many good qualities, and he was always a class act, but he was too conservative for a situation in which being conservative was a recipe for failure.

We need to give credit where credit is due.
-16 Bill F Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 3:19 pm

(click to show comment)

No luck involved. I suggest you go back to business school and STFU.
Herm Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 3:19 pm

it may affect the price of oil
-10 H Hogan Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 3:21 pm

(click to show comment)

You must be gay. Not that there is anything wrong with that.
DonC Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 3:38 pm

Happy 4th Everyone! Only one more year until Tag gets to drive his Volt!

The price of the plug in Prius should not be surprising, though it may be somewhat on the high side. Giving the Prius an extended electric range is not, as so many seemingly think, a simple matter of sticking a larger battery in the trunk. You have to upgrade the entire drive train and re-gear the HSD. At the end of the day you end up with a Camry with an extra EV drive train. As these numbers suggest, this is a very expensive way to go.

The Prius and the Volt are different horses designed for different courses. The Prius has a super design for short commutes. The Volt has a super design for long commutes. The Prius will not be easily transformed into a cost effective PHEV20 nor will the Volt be easily transformed into a cost effective PHEV10.

If you want to electrify transportation you have several choices. You can go an expensive E-REV route like GM and Fisker. You can go a really expensive premium BEV route like Tesla or a merely very expensive BEV route like Coda. You can go the more modestly priced non-conventional BEV route like Aptera. Or you can go an affordable hybrid route like Ford, Toyota, GM, and Honda. Time will tell what works — they may all work actually — but trying to turn one approach into another seems like a sure fire loser.
+1 Terry Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 3:56 pm

GM should keep its edge on Toyota, and sell some of the Volts being made this year (pre-production units made in Warren) to the public, with the added requirements of not only plugging the car into power each night, but also plugging into the Internet so the GM engineers could gather data and tweek the software of real users’ cars. Getting the Volts released, even in small numbers, as 2010 vehicles (this fall) would be great press. True it would be limited release, but not much different than Toyota’s proposed initial sales into fleets

If anyone at GM is reading it this and thinks its a good idea, contact me
+2 carcus1 Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:06 pm

“You have to upgrade the entire drive train and re-gear the HSD.”

____________

Where are you getting this info from?

Toyota is bringing 500 plug in Prius’ to fleet customers in a few months. Are you saying they’ve “upgraded the entire drive train” on these?

The changes to convert gen 3 to plug in are not huge. A little bit of suspension and a lot of software.
—-

That $48,000 for a imiev or plug in prius is a load of crap.

Sure they might ask for it (and get it) for a short period of time. But there’s nothing real world to indicate that price is necessary or sustainable.
nataraj Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:11 pm

You don’t actually mean “Relive” – right ?
+1 carcus1 Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:24 pm

From MIT’s “Technology Review”:

“The 2010 Prius available to consumers will still come equipped with a nickel-metal-hydride (NiMH) battery pack and no plug, but Toyota says that it is “plug-in ready”–designed and engineered to accept a lighter and more energy-dense lithium-ion battery pack that can be charged from the grid. Toyota will also produce 500 lithium-powered plug-in Priuses for its commercial and government leasing customers starting later this year. Toyota-Panasonic joint venture Panasonic EV Energy will supply the lithium batteries.”

The new Prius is designed so that its battery pack can be swapped out for a plug-in lithium-ion battery.
http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/21951/page1/

/so maybe it won’t even need the suspension work.
GXT Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:25 pm

Thanks carcus1 for injecting some facts.

Given that the Prius is $22-27,000 and that the larger battery will likely only need to be 1/4-1/3 the size of the Volt’s and there is already some battery cost in the current Prius I would expect the plug-in Prius to be in the $30,000 range depending on features.
+2 DonC Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:29 pm

You’re right about the complexity but the real problem when trying to give a Ford/Toyota HSD vehicle an EV mode are the demands on the individual cells. The smaller the battery the more stress on the cells. That’s the problem HSD is designed to address – it uses the ICE to protect the cells from fast discharges during hard accelerations or high speeds. (It’s also the reason why Toyota limits the speed in EV mode).

A large battery pack will provide the same protection since cell discharge will be slower and there will be fewer charge and discharge cycles. GM is gambling that a 16 kWh battery is big enough to do this, but it’s hard to imagine a smaller battery pack being able to adequately protect the cells. So Toyota has to choose. It can use a smaller pack and then spend a lot of bucks and sacrifice performance to protect the cells. Or it can use a larger pack which results in a very expensive vehicle, the expense being attributable both to the large pack and its controls as well as the expensive and complicated HSD system (which serves no real purpose that a simpler gen-set couldn’t).

You can see the results of this conundrum here. What you end up with is a PHEV20 that has a battery pack which is so large the vehicle isn’t cost competitive but too small to protect the cells. Seems like the worst of all worlds.
WarrenPeace Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:33 pm

I understand the price will be relatively expensive for the plugin. Close to $40,000.00 or below.
Toyota will make a nice profit on this model because they’ll have a simple change to the new Prius. Although it is a simple change like adding a charger, increase battery storage and alter software, they will run the price close to the Volt simply because they can. Why charge way less if GM is charging over $40K? Regardless of how most folks say they are not the same car, Toyota will bump the price close to the “Competition”.
-1 GXT Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:40 pm

In addition to Herm’s points, some advantages of the Prius over the Volt (and I am surprised that GM “will allow itself to get exposed like that” :

1) The ICE in the Prius may propel the car by itself. Therefore reserved battery capacity requirements may be decreased. Therefore less dead weight and better fuel economy. Also a lower cost to the consumer. This allows Toyota to make the plug-in Prius have a lower electric range which is what is most efficient as more consumers will tend to use more of the battery that they carry more often. It also means Toyota will be less likely to be constrained by battery capacity.

2) The Toyota design is an evolutionary design. It will be less likely to have problems.

3) HVAC on the Prius has the potential to be more efficient than on the Volt. The Prius may be better for more extreme temperatures (time will tell).
+1 GXT Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:42 pm

“The one true advantage of the Volt’s serial architecture is flexibility, it can easily and quickly be adapted to any car. Toyota’s system requires lots of fine tuning and unique parts to adapt to a car.”

This doesn’t ring true. Toyota’s system has been put in what, 5 or 6 different vehicles already?

Just go ahead and try to fit 16KWh of battery, an electric drive and an ICE in the Malibu or Metro… it may not be quite so easy.
statik Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:49 pm

Hi Van, I’m not exactly sure why you are telling me specs…maybe just for information to the board?

I think maybe there is some confuse as to my statement, I said Toyota wants to make it a option IN 2010…I didn’t say for the 2010 model. (“suggest it as a option in 2010″) Toyota would offer in 2010, but it would be on the 2011 badged Prius’ in late summer/early fall.

Your right they have waffled a bit on it…and I question myself if it will make it to the options list in time for the 2011 model. I think that had something to do with the demand of what they are offering now… they are pretty busy just trying to pump on the standard version.

Toyota certainly spawned the talk that it would be coming (and in 2010). First at the autoshow, then a couple occasion after that:
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/Toyota-Prius-Fisker-Tesla,5649.html

/shrug
+1 hayley Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:54 pm

Did you even read the post?

“Toyota has now committed to mass producing plug-in hybrid cars in 2012.”

Good luck getting the 2nd or 3rd gen out in 2010 when the Volt hits the market…
+3 hayley Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 4:56 pm

I suggest you go back to high school, that was the most immature comment I’ve seen thus far
hayley Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 5:08 pm

That made no sense whatsoever, you really think they don’t import cars because there’s no parking space? If they can’t afford parking then don’t buy cars. Japanese, American, or otherwise. If their products can’t compete because people demand imports, then just make less domestically. Simple.

All my Japanese friends openly admit that people in Japan are extremely racist.They think Japanese people are the masters of the universe, followed by white people in distant second, then all other Asians are below them, then black people are the scum of the earth. I know people like to think the world is a rosy place but I have to break it to you, they do discriminate on purpose.
Guy Incognito Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 5:09 pm

I’m glad to hear that the Volt will have some competition.

Perhaps maybe now GM will seriously consider spending some serious advertising on the Volt?
I’m sure Toyota has every intention of advertising the fact that they too will be producing a plug in hybrid, albeit parallel rather than serial.
+1 hayley Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 5:11 pm

I’m so confused by all these people saying $25000 plug in Prius, where is this coming from??

“Toyota is also said to want to price the car similarly to the Mitubishi i MiEV 100 mile range pure electric car which has already gone on sale in Japan. That vehicle costs $47,800 before subsidies.”

$22,800 (48%) subsidies??
+1 old man Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 5:36 pm

??????????
+1 Jackson Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 5:52 pm

I would be reluctant for GM to spend much on advertising a car which isn’t actually available to purchase. They’re keeping the fires hot among those who care via Lyle (many thanks and happy 4th, Dr. D), and Fastlane. They’re dropping enough wood on the fire to keep the project warm for reporters with the odd press-release, driving event. I’d expect the first introduction, later this year, to be the ‘kickoff’ for a major Volt push.
+1 Dan Petit Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 6:39 pm

Not over here they don’t. If they did, every lawyer would own em. Who cares what they do in Japan? Who needs their market? No one.
No, what they do in Japan to make room for more cars is to tax the heck out of them when they turn 4 years old. Then scrap them.

Ask your friends in Japan about that. It is an obscene and ridiculous affront to the conserving of the planet. There is so much carbon produced in not maintaining the economics to preserve what has already been produced, I would call it an environmental fraud. Taking very good care of your car is what is environmentally sound.

That is how they make more room for cars in Japan.

You can blame racism, but that characteristic is provincial or localized. It does not have anything to do with what goes on in America. Let’s “let sleeping dogs lie”.
Let them produce all the plug-ins they want. See how many Prius fans who post here actually go and buy one (I seriously doubt many will if they are available here). But if they do I’m all for that.
The national racism of Japan is in Japan, not here, and is not a valid topic to be brought up here in America.

Total carbon account for what goes on over there, and you would not be impressed with that either.
Dan.
RB Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:09 pm

Lyle said Toyota is also said to want to price the car similarly to the Mitubishi i MiEV 100 mile range pure electric car which has alreautdy gone on sale in Japan. That vehicle costs $47,800 before subsidies.
==================

So Toyota wants to be about the same price as the Mitsu. Yes, that is a nominal $48K before subsidies in Japan, but there will be big subsidies for these cars in Japan, so both likely will be $30 something out the door to customers there. This pricing has little to do with pricing in the USA, where the competition will be different and thus there will be a different market price.
RB Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:15 pm

“…due to overpopulation..” Unfortunately, the problem in Japan is the declining population, a result of fewer and later marriages and fewer children born to each. It is a very serious problem, with some university departments closing (including those in technical areas) and some of the islands unable to continue to function as there are no younger people living there.

Anyone who thinks that a diminishing population sounds attractive should student Japan. What happens is that as the total diminishes, the average age rises, leaving a population with more and more older people for each younger one, a stressful situation for everyone, young and old.
DonC Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:19 pm

To answer your question about the patents, Ford and Toyota both developed the same type HSD system, which I believe was actually created much earlier, like in the 60s, by TRW engineers. Both Ford and Toyota filed a lot of patents. At some point, Toyota sued Ford for patent infringement. Ford then countersued Toyota for patent infringement. After looking at the legal bills for a few months, both companies agreed to cross license all the patents. Case closed, the major point being that Ford does NOT license Toyota technology any more than Toyota licenses Ford technology.

This was BTW another of the mistakes that the Reynolds guy made when writing that op-ed piece in the WSJ in which he opined how how CAFE standards would ruin GM. You’d think that even though the piece was opinion the WSJ would do at least some basic level of due diligence.
+4 JEC Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:25 pm

Well I think I know his brother, and also his 1st cousin.
-1 Herm Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:25 pm

“This doesn’t ring true. Toyota’s system has been put in what, 5 or 6 different vehicles already?”

Still not easy to do, the Toyota system is very finely tuned to the engine and weight of the car, and the desired performance.. and Toyota has gotten good at it over the years. Note the 2010 Prius, bigger engine, bigger car, faster and yet improved gas mileage. A serial electric is dead easy, 1920s technology.. people build these cars in their home garage.

“Just go ahead and try to fit 16KWh of battery, an electric drive and an ICE in the Malibu or Metro… it may not be quite so easy.”

The pack does not have to be so big.
Dan Petit Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:35 pm

180 million people on an island the size of Nevada.

The only natural resource is labor. Everything is imported.
With that many mouths to feed and people who must have jobs, does it make sense to import anything but raw materials? Does it make sense to import anything that already has the labor put into it? Not at all. Economically nearly impossible for that kind of population density.

Here, lately, we have been thinking more in terms of millions of lost jobs since last October since the huge financial failures as to jobs and people needing to put food on the table. That is the common denominator universally.

I re-affirm that Japans and America’s trade situations are about far, far more that than a simplistic racism opinionated comment from one’s Japanese friends regarding (their own personal perceptions of) racism.

“Export more than you import” (to everyone else) is how you win. Voltec will be the winner.
Dan.
lektriktadpole Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:36 pm

I really wish I didn’t agree with you on this point, but your statements agree with experimental reality. Maybe someday they will change and maybe their younger generation is much more open. I haven’t had much contact with them. Discrimination against outside products in Japan is no myth. It is no accident. And it has nothing to do with good housekeeping.

Of course the Chinese also protect their home market, and their view is that is just good business, for them. If we will let them get away with it, they will do it. And they know the West will pay a dollar to get 50 cents worth of business in China, so that is what they charge.

Pretty much the same result, but some difference in the motives
-2 JEC Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:39 pm

+10 for that? Huh….I think the voting thing is rigged! I demand a recount!
lektriktadpole Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:50 pm

If the Chinese electric cars break as frequently as my Chinese made electric scooter and mopeds, Toyota has nothing whatsoever to fear from them. Actual quality and perception of quality will matter a very great deal when marketing a technology that people are not familiar with. GM’s “open” development of the Volt is about getting people to believe that they are doing it right, which I think they are. But the Chinese view customers as beta testers, and will release untested products and untested fixes with great frequency. They can make rapid technical progress while simultaneously producing nothing that you really want to own.
+1 alex_md Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 7:51 pm

The big problem I see with plug-in Prius is that it was not designed to do that. The size and capacity of its electric motor and all the power electronics is incapable to propel the car solely on electric power with the pedal floored. I have seen the upgrades (Hymotion) and honestly was not overwhelmed with the performance. In reality one could get to 100 + mpg on a plug-in Prius by hypermiling it but if you use the car in any practical way your mpg falls quickly.
I was getting about the same mpg out of Prius as out of my 4 year old 3.5 Altima (low 30’s high 20 mostly open road driving with frequent need to overtake a logging truck traveling at 70 mpg).
With the Volt the electric drive should be powerful enough for routine driving at least for the first 30-40 miles.
In my opinion they should make a GT version of Volt with 2 motor at the rear and the front and bunch of supercaps for short high power bursts of energy that battery is not able to deliver yet and get the 0-60 below 6 sec.
Dan Petit Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:02 pm

I really agree.
The timing of advertising generates the intended effect, or, it can backfire. Timing is everything.
Dan.
+1 MDDave Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:33 pm

Actually, there are several US states that are closer in size to Japan than Nevada is–they are California, Montana, New Mexico, and Arizona. Montana is the closest in size to Japan:

California: 423,971 sq km
Montana: 380,837 sq km
Japan: 377,835 sq km
New Mexico: 314,914 sq km
Arizona: 295,253 sq km
Nevada: 286,352 sq km
Tagamet Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:37 pm

Thanks Dale. It’d A) have SUCH great symbolism and B) it’s that much less for us to WAIT (lol).
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!**********NPNS**********No vet, No freedom!!
RB Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:40 pm

…reminds me watching grass grow…in the winter.
===============================

in the winter …. too funny. Maybe 2013?
+1 Tagamet Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:45 pm

I’m not from GM, but I agree that it’s a great idea. We’d have a VERY long line here of people wanting a beta edition.
Be well,
Tagamet

LJGTVWOTR!!
RB Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 8:46 pm

DonC, I agreed with your comment on the earlier thread where you said it was unclear the WSJ opinion guy understood how the new CAFE worked. I agree that seemed so. My problem is that I don’t understand CAFE, in the new version, beyond understanding that it begins with CO2 rather than mileage. Is there a link to something somewhere that gives a clear explanation?
Texas Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 10:04 pm

Don’t worry about the price. Toyota will price it competitively. Just like how they dropped the price of the new Prius to compete with Honda’s Insight.
carcus1 Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:00 pm

DonC,

I agree, that seems to be the general story, and what Ford’s Gioia, (can’t remember her name, exactly) has recently stated. Still. . . you wonder why if Ford was having trouble getting transmission parts from Aisin (20% owned by Toyota) then why wouldn’t Ford just “gear up” and make their own.

Anyway, that’s probably something only a few lawyers and the boys at the top know the full story on. Hopefully it’s all ironed out and both companies can make whatever volume needed without conflict.
+1 Arch Says:
July 4th, 2009 at 11:22 pm

The problem is that Toyota does not understand the difference between what the consumer needs and what they want. It will become clear in a few years.

The Geothermal Heat Pump System starts going in Monday. The Drilling truck is in my backyard tonight.

Take Care
Arch
Dave K. Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 12:37 am

Plenty of Volt test pilots here.

I was contacted 7 or 8 years ago (from an unnamed auto company) concerning becoming a new car test driver. When I filled out the form I added, “The car must get at least 30 mpg”. Never heard back from them.

=D~
Anthony BC Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 3:27 am

No surprise here people, move along to 2012.

GO EV !!!
NZDavid Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 5:29 am

And that mileage is based upon the Japanese city cycle upon which, I think, the Volt wold be able to achieve 55 – 60 mpc.

/Looking forward to the next Volt review, Lyle
NZDavid Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 5:38 am

And they just released the Holden Cruze here 27,495 + ORC. Progress is everywhere, roll on Volt.

Well done Arch.
-1 ozonelevel Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 6:54 am

Toyo Prius Plug-In? What a joke, totally sucks.

The real money is in a Tahoe/Expedition/F150 EREV! 40mi AER with VEG worksite/home power interface. Wake up GM, Ford! They could sell all they make at $60K+
Herm Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 7:08 am

“The Prius and the Volt are different horses designed for different courses. The Prius has a super design for short commutes. The Volt has a super design for long commutes. The Prius will not be easily transformed into a cost effective PHEV20 nor will the Volt be easily transformed into a cost effective PHEV10.”

Its the other way around, the Prius has problems with short range trips due to the ICE having to warm up (to reduce emissions) while the Volt can do short trips all-electric.. and perhaps the Prius will get better highway mileage.

A Volt 10 mile EREV could be done with the right battery, perhaps one of the new high power Hitachi lithium batteries. I think the Volt is destined to become a pure BEV one day, GM left lots of room in the T-box for more batteries.
koz Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 7:29 am

Precisely!
-1 koz Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 7:49 am

1.) So far from what GM has been saying this is true for flatlanders (e.g. Floridians like me that will never use the 5-10% kept in the battery SOC for prolonged steep high velocity accents). Of course it also means Toyota is always carrying the extra weight and cost of a larger ICE and HSD transmission. Bear in mind this cost is mostly a material detrrmined cost and will only increase over time. Battery cost and weight will come down over time.

2.) Huh? Only makes sense in Prius fanboy land.
3.) Huh? Only makes sense in Prius fanboy land. Both are electric driven AC. You could say the Volt design requires more capacity plus will cost and weigh more since it has to be able to condition the battery too.
statik Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 7:50 am

I’d be happy to comment on this carcus! lol

The auto situation (and more importantly the economic situation in Canada) is just not as bad. So the main story isn’t really what is good at Ford, it is what is bad internally at GM/Chrysler (although it makes nice press).

What happened was GM (and Chrylser), now in the throws of bankruptcy and sucking wind, shut down all kinds of plants for a elongated amount of time to get their ridiculous inventories down from over 180 days in a lot of cases to something more manageable (60-90 ideally) when they come out of the 363.

Nothing wrong with that, raising cash on excess, streamlining etc. Unfortunately, for GM and Chrysler Canada is sales where clipping along at a much better pace than their US counterparts, so when they ran out of vehicles…no more cars, and POOF go the sales, and GM isn’t firing up any plants just to please Canada, as we are only about 1/7th the US market.

For example, June autosales in Canada only off 13%. But if you strip out the ‘dogs’ ie) GM, Chrysler and all their little offshoots, we only down about 4%.

The fact is a lot of dealers have little to no inventory now on hot items. G6, G8, many dealers are short on Impalas, the VIbe is a good seller up here, no Camaros. On top of that Ford’s product mix is pretty good for Canada, F Series, Flex, Fusion, widespread availability of the Mustang, etc.

So Ford’s success is a isolated case here, as in they didn’t do anything special really other than having a good lineup and cars to sell. If anything the story in Canada for quite some time is Hyundai (and Kia), apparently they know how to sell a compact for a profit. Hyundai passed Chrysler this month. Of interest the Hyundai/Kia combo on a sales increase of 26% and 38% repectively, is ramping up behind GM quick too, ratio is 15:22…that same trend for Hyundai is showing up in the US now too.

Here are some other winners this month in Canada to illustrate my point:

Acura: 1,812 units (up 13.3%)
Audi: 1,106 units (up 51.7%)
BMW: 3,003 units (up 2.0%)
Ford: 27,373 units (up 24.7%)
Hyundai: 10,104 units (up 25.5%)
Kia: 5,200 units (up 37.9%)
Mercedes-Benz: 2,580 units (up 22.6%)
Nissan: 6,743 units (up 3.9%)
Porsche: 170 units (up 6.3%)
Suzuki: 1,273 units (up 1.8%)
Volkswagen: 4,513 units (up 15.8%)
Volvo: 901 units (up 3.2%)

Losers:
Chrysler: 9,161 units (down 58.4%)
General Motors: 22,034 units (down 30.9%)
Honda: 11,942 units (down 19.9%)
Lexus: 1,402 units (down 10.0%)
Mazda: 6,711 units (down 21.1%)
MINI: 528 units (down 15.0%)
Saab: 37 units (down 79.6%)
smart: 303 units (down 26.3%)
Toyota: 17,198 units (down 17.6%)
+3 Dan Petit Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 7:54 am

The idea is that if you get to **the most true** reason for something that you do not like, it is always, always, always, that any intellectually-based actions based on those truer or truest reasons for any “perceived problem”, that, those truest potential conclusions will have your response-actions produce higher success.

An untrained tech who is frustrated (from not having a systematic approach), who throws a wrench at the floor in disgust, is not someone who services vehicles thoroughly and properly, and, always without the highest seriousness-problem serviced properly firstly.

If we have a self-need to use labels at anyone, that’s just a “sour grapes” approach, which does nothing for anyone excepting for someone else with the same “sour grapes”.

What to learn about Japan, or any other country that does not “trade fair”, is, that you must have your own products so far, far, far in technical advancement ahead of them, that, your

************************************************
products themselves are the “fair trade”.
************************************************
It was said back 30 or so years ago, in the auto racing world, that, there was a product that was so good, that it was “unfair”. Sour-grapes competitors who lost the races, would grumble. That common grumble was so consistently spoken, it became the advertising mantra of that quality company’s meters, tachometers, and gauges.

***********************************
“PENSKE’S UNFAIR”
***********************************
So, if one is to grumble about discrimination in Japan, and, at the same time use that as a rationalization to **not** be our intellectual best at all times at all tasks, then, your grumbling *****itself****** is impeding your intellectual progress, and, you are the one throwing the wrench at the floor.

While the breathtaking advancements in America are greatly situational at least in some part, none of us can afford to allow ourselves to be lulled into sitting on our laurels by not constantly learning about Voltec and how we can help GM.

Dan.
PS. Can a few of you neutralize those negative votes up there if you agree with me? I am interested to try to understand if the voting process here is non-Voltec experimental.
Dan.
koz Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 8:01 am

What we will end up with, IMO, for HSD will be PHEV-0. They may be able to game it for the EPA schedule to appear to have an AER but reality will mean burning some gas for most real world driving. BUT, it will mean 100+ mpg while the plugged-in energy holds out and perhaps slightly improved mpg after that if they can take advantage of the larger battery capacity. Basically, this means a redesign of their control logic and larger battery plus add a charger/inverter, but they can keep the same size motors and power electronics.
Herm Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 8:10 am

base 2010 Prius in the States is $21k, good luck finding one.
+2 fred Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 8:11 am

I’m buying electric so we (the war mongers) will stop invading other places for oil. To save our soldiers lives. Our leaders won’t lead, so we the people, will have to. I would have liked to buy a new vehicle 2 years ago but will keep dri
ving my junk untill I can buy an electric.
Check out Altair Nanotechnologies Nanosafe batteries news release.
Dan Petit Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 8:14 am

Hey Arch,

Any way to reduce electricity use so that more can go into a Voltec vehicle is of interest.

I am planning to build a house that is not only Solar powered, but, with enough Solar energy left over to power a Volt.

It is my understanding that geothermal uses one twentieth the energy for heat transfer than does (very hot Texas) air at 100 degrees (which has happened 90% of the last 45 days).

Does your geothermal system have a closed loop, or is it an extraction/return injection well type? How did the permitting process go, (since there might be a great valid concern about the possibility of deep ground water purity-maintenance from an above-ground mechanism injecting down into there)?

I am working as hard as I can to not only buy a Volt, but, to be able to build a much smaller house and design it in such a way so as to be completely carbon neutral, and, have enough solar power left over to recharge a Volt (grid energy storage).
Dan.
Herm Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 8:19 am

Thinking about this some more, this may refer to 18 miles on the Japanese cycle, a very low speed cycle… if it is so then it could translate into a 9 mile range in an EPA city cycle.

9 miles would require a 4.5kwh pack, that option may turn out pretty inexpensive at $1400 for the plug in option.
Van Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 8:36 am

I expect that in about 5 months, the veil will be lifted on the Plug-in Prius. We will know the size of the lithium battery and the size of the gas tank. We will know its AER based on independent evaluations. And we will know its MSRP. As for speculation, how about 15 miles of AER, with a top speed in EV mode of 62 MPH, then 50 MPG.
Dan Petit Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 8:51 am

Do you have a link for that article Altair Nanosafe Battery?
Arch Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 9:37 am

Dan

My system will be a closed loop system. There will be four 150 ft deep wells. The heat exchanger pipes will run up and down in each one. I will end up using a little bit more electric energy. My problem is
propane. When I built this place I was paying 40 cents a gallon for it. This last year I paid $2.99 a gallon for it. I use about 1200 gallons a year. There are NO permits in this part of the world. I built the entire house and the only “permit” I had to go through was a lady from the
health department came out and watched them set the septic tank.
The guy running the backhoe laughed when she left. He said she was the one that did the typing in the office.

Take Care
Arch
Tagamet Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 10:34 am

Dave K – Sounds like you shot yourself in the foot (lol), but I wouldn’t want to test drive a real hog unless the company covered the gasoline during the test period. As usual, the Volt is in a sweet position re getting volunteers (g).
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!
carcus1 Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

You’re downplaying Fords success, making it sound like they just sold more cause there weren’t enough GM and Chrysler cars on the lots and Canada’s economy is strong and ready to buy (relative to U.S.) —— Really?

June was Ford’s 8th consecutive month of gaining market share in Canada.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSN026834320090602

Canada unemployment
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Unemployment-rate.aspx?Symbol=CAD

/ if having a good quality lineup and cars ready to sell isn’t the name of the game, then what is?
Michael Robinson Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 3:17 pm

Toyota has the best fuel cell prototype car in existence. Toyota is foolish to try and compete in the PHEV market when it can crush
that market with a fuel cell SUV that is cleaner.

With today’s advancements in fuel cell technology, fuel cells that use no more platinum than today’s catalytic converters are possible. That means cheap fuel cells. Figure out how to tack on a hydrnol reformation system, you have a car that will satisfy anyone.

Hydrnol may only work with hydrogen ICEs, but home refueling will probably be possible depending on how the depleted hydrnol is reconstituted.

Let’s say that the Clarity goes on sale for $100k in 2015 where the
home refueling system costs $50k. Chances are, Honda will at least cut that price in half and even if it doesn’t, $100k is price competitive with the Tesla roadster. Toyota has a better car than
the Clarity which is an SUV to boot. If Toyota matches Honda for
price or undercuts Honda, Toyota will have to focus on fuel cell cars.

There are problems with expecting Lithium ION batteries to go into millions of cars let alone thousands. Fuel cells on the other hand,
especially as platinum use is reduced and platinum recycling increases, can easily be mass produced. Honda already has a
dedicated factory for the Clarity where Toyota probably isn’t far behind. Even GM has a dedicated factory I believe for fuel cell vehicles.

As far as where do we get the hydrogen goes, we start by getting
it from natural and over time switch to renewable sources and nuclear splitting of water. Enough hydrogen is routed to refineries to remove sulfur from gasoline, hydrogen that could fuel millions of
fuel cell vehicles.

As far as the why convert methane to hydrogen comment, because you get more miles out of the hydrogen than you do out of methane.
There’s also the advantage with hydrogen that it is not a hydrocarbon.

I wonder if NASA can use hydrnol instead of liquid hydrogen to
pack more of the gas more safely om a tighter space?
Jean-Charles Jacquemin Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 4:28 pm

Hi Dave K and you all

Perhaps a lot of us should remember that the price of the iMIEV will be halved in a few months.

See :
http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1021670_mitsubishi-to-slash-price-of-i-miev-in-half-by-mid-2010s

Regards JC
Rob Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 7:36 am

Having driven the 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid, I can say that it boasts a comfortable interior with quality materials, top-notch fit and finish, and bold styling. People contemplating the purchase of a hybrid owe it to themselves to take the Fusion seriously.

For me the downside is placement of the battery pack in the rear seat back: this prevents the Fusion Hybrid from having a 60-40 split, fold down rear seat, and the trunk loses 4.7 sq. ft. of trunk space.
MetrologyFirst Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 9:30 am

When were you in Japan last? I have been there many times, there is NO SPACE for vehicles over there, where most people live. They have no driveways. The cars are parked under their houses in very small spaces. The parking lots are very small spaces. They do not own pickups. They do not own sports cars.

Their licensing taxes escalate with car size. The smallest cars are cheaper, the largest cars are REALLY expensive to own. And by largest, I mean Camry size. Considering their limitations from land and population, it probably is the best approach to take.

As far as importing, I agree the Japanese would not buy imported cars due to their strong commitment to their national interest. They admit it freely.

We could learn something from them in this area.
Noel Park Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 10:39 am

Kind of like the electric Mini.

I volunteered for this a long time ago. I would pay for the lease, a la the electric Mini.
Noel Park Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 10:44 am

Toyota? 10-88. I’m not buying a Toyota in this life or the next.

LJGTVWOTR!! NPNS!
Bradyb Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 12:08 pm

It still can’t go 75 MPH on the freeway on electric power alone, so it can’t compete with Volt.

When Toyota builds a car that you can drive to work on the freeway on fully electric power let us know, until then who cares!
Herm Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 1:44 pm

I think the all electric range will be much lower, closer to 10 miles.. but that will still save a tremendous amount of oil.. it also means that it may be a relatively cheap option.
grat Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 2:19 pm

The study on the Hymotion converted Priuses suggests there won’t be that much advantage to just throwing a bigger battery and better software into a Prius.

To my knowledge, the HyMotion conversion doesn’t change out MG1 or MG2, something that I would think would be required to get better efficiency out of the car.

Otherwise, all you’re doing is using house-current to “preload” the batteries– You’ll still need the ICE for any serious driving.
grat Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 2:19 pm

Toyota doesn’t share your optimism.
grat Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 2:21 pm

Don’t forget that the first 40 miles of a trip are combustion-free on the Volt, whether it’s at highway speed or 5 miles per hour stop and start. The Prius on the other hand, stops the electric motor after what, 34 mph?
DaveP Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 2:48 pm

I have to comment on those flowers and birds on the side… but I’m totally speechless. I’ve never put car styling as a really high priority in cars, but I am not sure I could drive a car with that graphic on it…

Yes, yes, I know it’s just the demonstrator graphic and all, but still…
Bob G Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 4:56 pm

I can imagine the disappointment of all the people who will pay extra money for a plug-in Prius, only to discover that it burns gasoline whenever they aren’t feathering the throttle on short trips at low speeds on ideal flat roads on a warm (but not hot) day.
Bob G Says:
July 6th, 2009 at 5:02 pm

I also test drove the 2010 Fusion Hybrid and I agree with your comments.

If you want a super-efficient car, but prefer a larger size and more comfort than the Prius, the Fusion Hybrid is worth a look.

In my case, my wife is looking for more performance … possibly a Camaro.
CS Guy Says:
July 7th, 2009 at 6:47 pm

Dan/Arch, way to go you two. I’m hoping the climate bill keeps its provision outlawing HOA restrictions on solar, wind and geothermal. Right now our HOA will not allow any wind or solar hot water heating and only solar integrated into roofing tiles (way too expensive), no PV panels and certainly no solar thermal power generation.
CS Guy Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 1:46 pm

Main related page:
http://www.altairnano.com/profiles/investor/fullpage.asp?f=1&BzID=546&to=cp&Nav=0&LangID=1&s=0&ID=10700

Press release from 2006:
http://www.altairnano.com/profiles/investor/ResLibraryView.asp?BzID=546&ResLibraryID=17537&Category=856
Frank Sherosky Says:
July 9th, 2009 at 4:57 pm

I suspect Toyota might have messed up by avoliding and criticizing the plug-ins for so long, much like Lutz avoiding Hybrids when he first arrived on GM’s scene. Where Toyota was ahead of GM, now they might be behind, at least for a while.

Furthermore, I challenge Mr. Robinson what wrote “Toyota has the best fuel cell prototype car in existence.” I drove the GM Hydrogen Fuel Cell in an Equinox last summer. The experience was awesome!

Perhaps that’s why there has been a changing of the guard at Toyota HQ in Japan. Nice to see them on the ropes for a change, albeit their cash on hand will get them through.
http://www.examiner.com/x-3721-Detroit-Automotive-Technology-Examiner

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