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Toyota’s New President to Continue Focus on Hybrid Rather than Electric Cars
Toyota has been the first company to achieve significant commercial success in selling a hybrid vehicle. The Toyota Prius is in its third generation and since inception has sold well over 1 million units. In fact Toyota’s success with the Prius caught GM by surprise. As the story goes, GM long ago had decided not to enter that area when profitable gas guzzling SUVs were all the rage.
The Volt was GM’s ‘Hail Mary Pass’ to leapfrog Toyota and become the new technology leader. Though the Volt does operate as a series hybrid in charge sustaining mode, from a drivetrain perspective its an electric car. Electric cars have very significant driving advantages over hybrids and the potential to use far less if any gasoline at all.
Toyota’s new President Akio Toyoda was recently interviewed by CNN. Toyota had just taken the wheel of what is now the worlds largest automaker a mere two months after the company reported its largest annual operating loss in history.
Among other thing Toyoda, who is the grandson of the company’s founder, was asked whether Toyota should be doing more in the way of electric cars, considering the efforts of its competitors.
“Electric cars’ battery life is limited, and that has not been solved,” said Toyoda. “We would like to utilize our hybrid technology because we have accumulated quite a bit of knowledge about battery usage for hybrid cars.”
“Depending on how electric cars are used or how they are found to be valuable,” he says “for the time being Toyota would like to focus on hybrid technology.”
Its no surprise that Toyota would want to stay focused on its successful product and the hope its technology will remain dominant. Of course it is likely the company has ready plans if electric cars wind up leaving hybrids in the dust.
We shall see.
Source (CNN)
June 29th, 2009 at 6:13 am
Toyota’s new President is a smart guy.
He is taking a winning strategy and making it better and better.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:21 am
I think the voltec technology will surpass the hybrid. Go GM and Go Volt!
June 29th, 2009 at 6:25 am
It’s great to see that Toyota will finally fall behind, that is until they change strategy again, just like they did with plug-in hybrids.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:32 am
Lyle in the post described Voltec as a “Hail Mary pass.” Well said. As with most all such passes, a Hail Mary pass is exciting to watch but still a long shot. I hope GM successfully catches the ball and scores a touchdown.
Notably GM’s success with the Volt can happen by broadening the market to a wider range of customers, not just by converting customers from the Toyota Prius. That broadening is what has to happen for electric cars to be successful in the general car market. Let’s hope.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:41 am
If Toyota can work their way up to 180 HP with 60 mpg then they will have an attractive product. EREV will be taking sales share by offering the owner the option to drive gasoline use free. This is a very attractive attribute by any measure. Personally, I find it difficult to warm up to the current styling of Toyota. The cars are lightweight, basic, fairly economical, and under powered. EREV offers the driver much more.
=D~
June 29th, 2009 at 6:43 am
As Shakespere said
Present mirth has present laughter,
What’s to come is still unsure.
I hope Voltec will prove superior, but I see it as “still unsure”.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:48 am
I do hope GM succeeds but you have to give credit to Toyota with the Prius. There is a growing following for this vehicle and the new 2010 does boast some pretty cool features.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:53 am
It is hard to say he is wrong. He has a proven commodity in the Prius and some other hybrid offshoots. A lot of things look good on paper, but don’t materialize…there is still no substitue for real world results.
That being said, you also have to continue to look to the future and be continually trying to find ‘the next big thing’ to stay ahead of the curve (and your competition)…and not rely on past success, which is what GM was/has been guilty of in the past.
I think having the Plug-In as a option in 2010 for the Prius, although inferior in many ways to E-REV or a BEV, is almost a ace in the hole for them…a ready platform, and a cheap price to a mostly uninformed public.
Time will tell if Toyota is still developing ‘electric tech’ inline with the efforts of its peers…even if they are not touting it. As we know, the bulk of the electric car revolution right now is built on the battery revolution…and Toyota certainly is not turning its back on that. Indirectly their success with hybrids has forced them to always be reckoned as a player in the EV field because of their battery infrastructure already in place.
They own 60% of Panasonic EV (they put 700 million into it along with Matsushita in 2008), which produces Li-Ion batteries for auto applications, and look to sell packs to other car companies…which might be where the real money is made in the first few years of the EV revolution. However, the only true EV they have in the pipeline is the FT-EV minicar for 2012…which is certainly not congruent for the NA market, it is more like a NEV.
Regardless of the new President’s words, I find it hard to discard them as a player in this segment.
…it looks like a classic case of, “you talk about the things you actually sell now, and not what is coming” – if you don’t recognize this move, go to your local Chevy dealer and see if he doesn’t push you into a Malibu when you want to talk Volt, lol
June 29th, 2009 at 7:02 am
I gained alot of respect for the Prius a few weekends ago.. I was traveling through Western Maryland in the mountains on the highway. Some of the roads are fairly steep. I drove up a very long hill next to a prius that was holding about 70 mph and noted that they had 4 people (not tiny kids) in the car.
Not too shabby…
June 29th, 2009 at 7:04 am
The true benchmark is the Genset.
Toyota is entrenched with its hybrid drive.
While it has been demonstrated that an A123 Hymotion Pack can get the Prius to behave somewhat like an electric car, this arrangement does not meet the “designed-in” characteristic that Toyota requires.
The statement Mr. Toyoda (the TRUE Mr. Toyoda, to be well respected), is a very very clear warning to BEV OEM’s as well as their prospective customers.
Mr. Toyoda’s honest statement regarding (even current) advanced battery progress, ought to be interpreted to suggest that very wide charge-discharge ranges as required by BEV cause Toyota Motors high concerns, [in comparison to the narrow usage band of charge-discharge usage as practicable for EREV.]
But an entirely new Genset EREV manufacturing overhaul for Toyota Motors is currently cost-prohibitive for Japan.
The supposed technical “light at the end of the tunnel”, as the honorable Mr. Toyoda currently (and accurately) views non-EREV setups, would actually instead be a hard and fast lesson from the light of an economic “freight train” collision, head-on, for Toyota Motors. The “tunnel” being a contractually-binding railway once begun.
This is one of those “last minute if we have to”/ “marketing image to compete” situations which Toyota Motors is not exactly happy to have contrasted to synergy drive. Dropping a big battery into a Prius is not likely to work out for the wide usage characteristics that all Toyota Motors customers require.
So here we are, back to EREV, and, only GM is doing this correctly from my technical perspectives. We should all be extremely proud of GM. I am, because….
GM has jumped 5 years ahead of all others.
(Time to go to work).
Dan.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:06 am
I want you to know that I have recently (6/20/09) completed the adding of a 240 volt 40 amps outlet in my garage. This is in preparation for the purchase of an electric car to add to my Mercury Mariner Hybrid. I wish you would write or allow more positive results in your comments like testimonials from people who actually bought and use hybrids and other quasi electric cars that Ford-GM-Chrysler actually make and sell? I have been on your Chevy Volt wait list for some time now and I hope to be able to buy one before I die? (I am 73 and a semi-retired engineer)
June 29th, 2009 at 7:10 am
I would exercise caution with that approach though… That was what GM did with their SUV approach, wasn’t it? They said “Hey this is great, let’s just keep riding this wave” and then the SUV-sea calmed down, so to speak.
A diversified portfolio makes sense whether it’s the cars of an auto maker, stocks, or items in an all-you-can-eat buffet.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:13 am
You sound like there is no way, we as Americans can compete, should Toyoda decide to build an equivalent to the Volt. That is hog wash!! Now that the domestic car makers have less constraints, we will see a different picture. I bet Toyota is now working hard in building an equivalent to the Volt, but they won’t let you know that until much later. That’s one of the big difference between GM and Toyota. GM tells all, and that makes them vulnerable to much criticism, while Toyota is secretive.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:22 am
There’s nowhere to go with hybrid technolology – it has reached the end of the road – the new Prius does nothing to advance the core technology. Even if Toyota were currently working on an electric (which I’m positive they are) Toyota would probably not admit same,
which would in effect tell the world that Toyota was late to the game
and a follower, not just of GM but Nissan as well.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:28 am
It’s certainly superior to the Prius. The much, much bigger and more important question is whether it has chance in hell of competing against BYD’s F3DM and F6DM. I doubt it. GM’s hopes at this point rest upon the acquitition of the slippery battery technology discovered by MIT and being worked on now by A123 Systems, which is connected to GM. That would, obviously , lead to a
battery-only electric.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:32 am
You are both right.
This makes perfect sense from Toyota’s position.
However, they shouldn’t back themselves into a corner like GM did.
I wish all companies luck in electrifying the automobile.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:41 am
They probably made that decision after seeing these results:
http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1021735_long-term-study-of-plug-in-priuses-shows-disappointing-mpgs
Still, if your commute is short / slow enough to be in all electric mode the entire way, I don’t see how your mileage wouldn’t improve, as you use no gas at all. I do see how the additional weight of the batteries would hurt the mileage when the engine is running, but the all EV range has to help.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:49 am
I agree — no doubt Toyota has alternative plug-in and BEV cars under consideration and possibly development. In the longer term it probably does not matter much who is first to announce, although it has been great to follow GM’s progress on the Volt, and GM has received a lot of publicity because of doing a more public development. For GM, so far, so good. For Toyota, they are selling high-mileage cars already, so GM has to catch up.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:50 am
Comparisons of the pre-2010 Prius, to the claimed but unconfirmed Volt performance is a little dicey. When the Plug-in Prius does hit the fleet market in limited supply, we should be able to make a far better comparison. Hopefully, around the same time, December 2009, we should have some independent evaluations of the Volt IVers in charge sustaining mode.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:58 am
TWO-MODE and BAS+ are still be invested in by GM.
So no matter what “leapfrog” claims are made, they cannot imply the a one-size-fits-all solution. Different types & configurations will co-exist, especially since it will be a decade before enough volume is available.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:59 am
I agree.
If $40+K vehicles (at today’s prices) were most of the market, the US would be a very different place…less vehicles on the road and/or mostly older models. The new vehicle market would be smaller than this one hit by recession.
Toyota’s scalable hybrid design just requires that Toyota to offer the right setup to hit the sweet spot of the market. GM has attempted to cover a varying range of hybridization (BAS, 2 Mode, and EREV). Most people have still never owned a hybrid…and interest is growing. However, GM still has very little to compete in the bulk of this market.
This may sound boring…but I believe most car buyers want to know that auto manfacturer will continue to sell and support their vehicle. It does not seem like a good idea to purchase a vehicle that GM will very likely discontinue in few years anyways.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:10 am
Toyota is probably wise to captilize and continue to capitalize on the Prius and iterations of that thereof for the short term. It is because of the Prius that we can never discount them as a powerhouse in the field of EV’s, although they don’t offer anything you can point a finger too and technically call a true “EV”. Even though what Toyota publicly says seems to run contrary to having true EV aspirations, I would suspect that when the EV market starts to show signs of life and promise, Toyota will be right there with a highly competitive product as well.
side note to the above: GM needs to proliferate the Voltec platform if it wants to survive. It can’t just stop and be satisfied with one model (the Volt), and a “let’s wait and see how it does” attitude. They’re married to this idea now and need to see it through. And that means developing and marketing all sorts of variations of the Voltec platform.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:25 am
And the Volt will be very successful if it is “reliable”, especially the electric drive motor and electronic drive circuitry.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:35 am
I think BYD cars will be a greater threat to the Japanese and Korean Built cars as their buyers have already decided to buy the cheapest car to fill their needs.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:36 am
Dan, you always seem to nail it!
And I’m off to work too.
Have a nice day everybody.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:37 am
“…GM needs to proliferate the Voltec platform if it wants to survive”
———————————
Yes, if GM can get the cost of Voltec much lower than 1st gen.
It is not impossible, but no doubt not easy either.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:39 am
Toyoda says, “Electric cars’ battery life is limited, and that has not been solved.” GM says different. Also, many other companies announced upcoming EVs. What is going on here? I guess I could say, “ICE cars’ engine life is limited, and that has not been solved.”
June 29th, 2009 at 8:43 am
Me to!!
I wish we could get a basic profile on the users of gm-volt.com, I think GM would be surprised at the diversity of age, education, income, and reasons we each have for wanting a Volt.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:58 am
Down the road (so to speak) Toyota can buy the voltec tech from Gm the way they have sold the synergy tech to others – always a generation behind what they currently have on the road (evil grin).
Statik is right in the sense that GM’s transparency with the Volt is anything but typical in car development (thanks in part to Lyle).
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!**********NPNS
June 29th, 2009 at 8:58 am
Thanks for the link. It is thought provoking, and cautionary, as relates to the Prius but also the Volt.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:00 am
What will be interesting is seeing if GM can make two-mode cheap enough and BAS+ good enough that they are attractive to purchasers. At present both seem like image-marketing labels, but neith something people want to buy. That could change, however, and I hope it does.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Yes, they are, and will continue, to make good profits from their current line of hybrids.
They are still going forward with their plug-in plans and will have out their plug-in Prius (for lease) before the Volt hits the roads. So, don’t make the mistake to count them out. Oh, it will also be running on lithium-ion technology.
I believe some people make the mistake that Toyota is walking away from lithium-ion technology or that their technology is inferior to other companies.
Toyota just has very high requirements of quality and must feel comfortable with what they use. They have a very strong reputation to maintain and will be ready to match what the market wants. They can afford to sit back and let others jump in and test the market for EVs. If they work out, Toyota will be ready and willing. If it doesn’t work out maybe because the cost of the batteries are just to much for the consumer then they will just continue with their current strategy. The 2010 Prius is very advanced, proven and affordable.
I think they are sitting in a very good position. They also have massive amounts of capital to invest if needed. So, don’t worry about Toyota, in fact, beware.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:05 am
Much of what you say, i agree with. As for #2 RB
“I hope GM successfully catches the ball and scores a touchdown. ”
GM has already caught the “Hail Mary Pass”. Voltec technology is far ahead of Toyota’s Prius design and for those who say “Seeing is believing”, open your eyes to what GM has already achieved.
After WWII, Japan with heavy assistance from US rebuilt its industry: its automotive industry achieved in about ten years, what ours took thirty or more years to accomplish. That happens with a new company because it doesn’t take the new company as long to engineer a competitive product. Voltec is a new concept is car design and has cost GM a lot of money to get the design right. IMHO. It will take Toyota a while to build a competitive EREV but not as long as GM as far as engineering. (Not as long at all if they have been developing their own EREV design in secrecy.) And all at a time when economic conditions have drained corporate coffers.
They are smart in that their investment in battery design and production will position them to make significant profits to recover from the recession. So ias other manufacturers are successful with BEV’sand EREV’s and they sell them their battery packs, they maintain market presence.
Time will tell, as has been said here before, but one thing is certain, GM is on the right road with the Voltec drive systems.
One more comment – Look at what KIA is doing, lowering the price on certain models. Once the engineering cost is recovered, a manufacture can drastically lower the price. By spreading, the Voltec drive system across various models, GM will achieve the same result. You can buy the cheap model EV’s from other manufacturer’s but buyer beware newer unproven companies. As for the established auto maker’s in which I have more confidence, it looks like their initial offerings are in the same price range as the Volt. All this will change in short order. Toyota will continue to sell Prius at a lower price now that they have recovered much of their engineering costs. Many people will choose the Prius because the price has come down. (In part because of Honda.)
CAN’T WAIT – ABOUT ONE YEAR TO GO. GO VOLT!
June 29th, 2009 at 9:06 am
Toyodasan might have also said (and was probably thinking)….
“Electric cars’ battery cost is excessive, and that has not been solved.”
June 29th, 2009 at 9:20 am
No Japanese corporation would take the risk that the Volt represents. GM has taken a huge gamble, something extremely conservative Japanese businessmen would never consider.
They will watch, and wait; and then spring when they feel it’s both safe, and profitable.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:20 am
Toyota is just being conservative.. contrary to what people say, it is very easy to upgrade the Prius to plug-in.. and it will be even easier in future versions, starting with the 2010 edition. The Prius may even have an edge on highway mileage.
EREV is a transitional stage, Toyota may just be planning to ride it out to full BEV when they get the battery tech where they want it.
I think we will soon see BEV toting a trailer with a genset.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:21 am
comparing two future cars is always dicey.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:28 am
http://gm-volt.com/2008/05/11/gm-voltcom-readership-survey-results/
June 29th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Thankfully, Toyota continues to make the Prius uglier and uglier. This presents a window of opportunity for other manufacturers, to build a hybrid that doesn’t embarrass your driveway.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:39 am
This is an important point. For example, the gas you save by stopping the engine on four SUVs when they are not moving might be enough to run a Prius for almost a year, and while Prius sales are good they don’t amount to 25% of all new cars.
This type of thinking is not, however, going to be internally generated by the auto companies. It’s going to be driven by the new CAFE standards. These standards are tough, and all cars are going to have to use a number of techniques to get better mileage. As a result, the increase in mpg for any one vehicle may not be eye-popping but, taken as a whole, the collective effect will be significant. Definitely way more than what we’d see from even 100K Volts.
Moreover, even for vehicles which use batteries, different technologies will work better for different commuting patterns. Something like a Prius is probably the best solution for short commutes. As commutes become longer a vehicle like the Volt is the better solution from an energy perspective. (This is actually the achilles heel for Toyoda’s statements — though they are true statements, the statements only hold true when applied to a given set of driving circumstances.)
But I want a Volt. No real interest in the Prius. As Bob Lutz says, I live on the coast (somewhat literally) in my own little world! For Toyota the issue will be that what we might call the “green mantle” will pass to a different car company. That’s not a technical issue, it’s a PR issue.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Toyota Prius is much more sophisticated or complicated than the Volt. GM volt is the best if compare between the 2 systems. maintenance wise, the Volt don’t need any tune up unless you want to hack the software for custom setting. (just a matter of time, sooner or later). GM system I believe much more efficient than Toyota highbrid
Toyota and other car companies probably have something similar to Volt tech in their lab
June 29th, 2009 at 9:51 am
Cracking Toyota’s 35 MPH Barrier
http://evworld.com/EVWORLD_TV.CFM?storyid=1719
– or, why the volt may very well have head to head competition in the prius
– or, series vs. series/parallel plug in hybrids
June 29th, 2009 at 9:53 am
One of the first customer for the Volt will be Toyota. They will meticulously take the car apart and copy whatever they can without infringing on the patents and may even try to steal some of the technology like they did for the Prius from a Virginia company.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:54 am
Jackson writes, “No Japanese corporation would take the risk that the Volt represents.”
I can’t imagine why you would say that. Toyota did exactly that, take a huge gamble, with the Prius. GM, Chrysler and Ford split a billion and a quarter in advanced fuel-efficient powertrain and vehicle development money (PNGV) from the Feds and didn’t bother to follow up on it.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:01 am
A guiding principle of good design is that all parts should fail at the same time. The ICE will last longer than most parts so it’s not a problem. The battery pack is much different. Didn’t someone from GM say that they refer to the battery pack as “The Diva”? If you don’t properly protect the cells, the battery pack will fail many years sooner than all other parts, including user replaceable parts like the tires.
This is why nasaman’s comment about cost is not really on point. Even if the cost of the cells dropped by a factor of 2 or 4 or 8, you’d still have to coddle the battery pack. Otherwise it could go kaput — maybe even up in flames — every other weekend. The upside for GM is that if its engineers succeed in maintaining “The Diva”, and if EVs are a hit in the marketplace, then GM will have a very valuable patent portfolio. (As taxpayers we should be pleased if this is the outcome).
June 29th, 2009 at 10:05 am
There will be 2 more generations of the Prius BEFORE the Volt hits showroom. I would be afraid very afraid. This is the worlds leading automotive company for a reason. Can you say “Quality” (a word missing in GM’s vocabulary).
June 29th, 2009 at 10:06 am
I respect your opinion, but there is no way I’d buy a car that needs a trailer to get where I need to go. Talk about inconvenience.
I’ll take the Volt.
I DO think that our GM engineers have a higher capacity battery design in their back pocket but are waiting for costs to come down or the market to demand it. It would be an easy upgrade to the system, (firmware update) for now it makes sense to prove in the car with the ’standard’ battery.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:07 am
Don’t tell that to those 1+ millions owners and the 200,000 Japanese that have one on order.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:10 am
“They are still going forward with their plug-in plans and will have out their plug-in Prius (for lease) before the Volt hits the roads. So, don’t make the mistake to count them out. Oh, it will also be running on lithium-ion technology.”
That’s true. And don’t forget that, because of it’s design, the current Prius is just a wiring harness and a larger battery away from being a PHEV.
=D~~~~
June 29th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Toyota certainly knows what they are doing. I can not say the same about GM. Battery is simply not good enough for automotive applications and that is exactly what Toyoda is saying.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Plug in Hybrids- It’s all about the software.
Without software optimization, a prius with an added battery (Phev10 or whatever) will not return great results. But when Toyota decides to start writing all the code for proper blending (which they probably are working on now) you’ll see very impressive mpg gains for not a lot of battery (less than 10kwh).
At least some independents (like Plug-in Conversions Corporation) and even one OEM (Ford) are working towards products that have plans for public release. I would suspect Toyota will wait until it looks like either Ford’s plug in escape or the volt show signs of market success and then they’ll jump into the mix (or perhaps, out in front) with a plug in prius, complete with very advanced software.
/Having said that, it’s also very much about the battery, and Toyoda’s concern about wanting to wait on long term battery data must be considered legitimate.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:13 am
I know Tesla is the main reason the Volt was created but I have to believe that GM’s board looked at the huge success of the Prius before giving the go-ahead for Volt production. The Prius showed that a hybrid was finally viable in the marketplace. Thank you Toyota.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:15 am
No Name has been very busy the last few days…
It seems a bunch of real rolling Volts has them nervous.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:15 am
The primary thing I got from reading the CNN interview with the new Toyota president was that he feels the future belongs to Toyota. It is Toyota’s to mold and manage. Assuming Toyota can manage to out perform the auto companies in Korea and China. He doesn’t seem to hold out much promise for the future of the “Big Three”. IMO.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:16 am
I’ve driven that section of road many times in a 2004 Prius. I’ve driven it many more times in a 2001 Jetta TDI and a 1998 Ford Ranger. My fiancée used to live in Baltimore.
Did you happen to flip the display to the energy-flow diagram? I found it surprising that the car will charge the battery while climbing the hill, and discharge while descending. It makes me wonder if the gas engine has something like 4 preferred throttle-settings? It’s cool stuff, and it again reminds me that automated transmissions don’t look out the window.
As you noted Prius really can deliver real power when you need it to. It seems to me that the ergonomics are set up to strongly discourage the driver from doing this, but I’ll push any accelerator to the floor when climbing a steep hill on the Interstate in densely-packed high-speed traffic. The Prius is no muscle car, but I’ve never found a situation where it can’t keep up with traffic. (Which is a lot more than I can say for some of the regular cars that I’ve driven!)
June 29th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Thank goodness in just over a year there will be a better looking choice!
June 29th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Dan Petit: “GM has jumped 5 years ahead of all others.”
No, they haven’t. When the Volt debuts, it may prove to be superior but it’s still expensive (my tax contribution counts) and GM’s plan is for piddly quantities. Toyota is burying them on volume and the attendant economies of scale, leading to excellent value in an extremely fuel-efficient hybrid car.
Further, the enabling tech is the battery. GM has the same access to battery technology as Toyota… a check written to the battery manufacturer provides what they need.
Toyota’s current vehicle is PHEV-ready, they can swap out the existing battery and replace it with a superior battery to give it a modicum of range. They can tweak the software to behave in several different ways and the car will have a robust-enough EV mode to suit many drivers.
The incremental cost of a PHEV Prius is the advanced battery MINUS the cost of the current battery (not insignificant). The car will probably qualify for some level of tax credit (not the full $7500 but some lesser amount). Coupled with a low price, because it’s based on a half-million units/year vehicle built on flex manufacturing lines, a PHEV Prius is likely to be an excellent value. For persons with shorter than 40 mile commutes, why buy capacity that isn’t needed?
Further, I challenge the notion that the Volt is particularly advanced.
The ICE is way too big… it’s big enough to propel the car respectably all on its own. GM didn’t downsize it enough to get leverage in weight and size. A smaller engine would lead to a lighter car with better performance. The battery could have been downsized (bringing vehicle cost down) or EV range could have been increased.
I’m astonished to find that the car almost certainly contains a differential! One driveshaft out of the M/G unit strongly implies this (Lyle posted that he had seen the unit and described it – one driveshaft comes out). Why not employ two drive motors? This would have made traction control simpler and eliminated the drivetrain losses imposed by a differential. And differentials aren’t particularly light, either.
The ultimate improvement in performance would have been, as herm implies, above, mounting the genset on a trailer and pulling it only when necessary. The car would become a BEV with good range and capability and the trailer would be involved only when necessary. We could switch to a rental model for the genset (common interface for the trailer) and the car price would be significantly reduced (just rent the genset for special occasions) or lease one, if you think you’ll need it often, and you are free to upgrade later, independently of the vehicle. GM could have introduced a roadside assistance plan that included bringing you a genset if you accidentally took the vehicle beyond BEV range (someday, AAA could do this).
June 29th, 2009 at 10:22 am
I have to agree with Texas. Toyota is sitting where GM should be if GM had continued the EV1 program or developed a similar hybrid to the Prius. All of which GM decided not to do. I can’t blame them for the EV1 because it was ahead of its time. Battery technology and cost was just out of sync. But I do blame GM for being very short sighted about developing a Prius like vehicle. If they had done that, they would be in a stronger position today. Not necessarily a better position, but a stronger one technologically. Having a strong hybrid plus the Voltec system would mean more vehicle sales. As simple as that.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:26 am
I certainly think the Volt technology will be an important part of GM assuming they can get the cost of the battery down to a reasonable level and have an ample supply of batteries. Of course, we can always hope for some new battery technology to come along that would help the Voltec systems advance rapidly.
At the same time, GM should develop a strong hybrid system for use in its larger and smaller vehicles. This world will require the use of both technologies for many more years. One of them may win out over the other, but I don’t really think so. I believe both will be with us for most of the next 25 to 30 years and maybe beyond that.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:27 am
Judging by the picture, Akio Toyoda-san has the stage presence of a robot. Although Bob Lutz sometimes gets in trouble for what he says, he has a commanding presence even though he’s approaching nearly 80 years old.
Just to change the subject… has anybody seen Jolt the Volt in the new Transformers movie?
June 29th, 2009 at 10:28 am
It’s going to be extremely interesting to see the overall economy of the Volt in the real world. There is going to be an unpresidented variance in economy depending on usage.
It is going to be a huge challenge for the marketing folks to get the message out clearly that driving habits will make a huge difference in the returned economy.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:28 am
(click to show comment)
June 29th, 2009 at 10:30 am
You are whistling by the graveyard. The operative word is Toyota HAD massive resources to call on. But that was then and this is now. It is no longer the case that Toyota has massive resources. Money has drained out of Toyota on a massive scale, much worse than GM or Ford. Its piggy-bank is near empty, and Toyota is getting bail-out loans from the Japanese government just like Chrysler and GM. Much worse, is that Toyota,under both old and new leadership, is trying to ride out the recession without making cuts in its capacity. Asa consequence, it is committed to continue to bleed profusely, until world markets return. Wisely or not the Worlds other large automakers are making prudent reductions, so that the bleeding will cease, even if markets don’t turn.
Hybrid Synergy Drive is a fine transition technology and can double the mileage of a vehicle. Widespread adoption would result in an effective World wide fleet of half the size of conventional autos. While welcome, that merely postpones the inevitable, as it is not enough.
The World would be still dependent on limited fossil reserves.
In the long run, the power sources for the World’s Ground Transport fleet needs to virtually replace, not merely stretch out the use of fossil hydrocarbons as fuel. HSD cannot ever do that. There will always be a demand for fossil even in PHEV combinations, using series-parallel designs. At most, they could obtain in PHEV form, up to 3-4 times the mileage of conventional vehicles. While welcome, it isn’t enough to break the Oil monopolies, or free us from fossil limitations.
Many here like to think BEVs are coming. I agree but not very soon. Maybe they will be a valid transport solution by mid-century, but not likely before. The power density of Li-Ion chemistry is just too low for the pure BEV. To make then practical, the power density must increase by two orders of magnitude. Even the most dense future chemistries, beyond Li-Ion, are only marginally able to support a single order of magnitude improvement. It isn’t enough.
EREV architectures and PHEVs in general, hold the key for true substitution from fossil. EREVs with the possibility of 9 times the fossil economy of conventional autos, would allow the entire world to support a western lifestyle, including widespread auto usage, and still use much less than half of the fossil presently consumed as fuel. While not a permanent solution that would both break the Oil monopolies, and also solve the availability problem for half a millenia or more.
As a “transition technology”, EREV architecture will endure for an awfully long time.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:30 am
I agree, RB. GM must broaden the market to compete against the Prius. If GM tries to compete only against the Prius, it will fail. The Volt will be a very good vehicle but it will not win many converts from the Prius. Toyota will respond with new advances that will position the Prius in a better position vs the Volt. If GM wants to compete strongly, they must push Toyota by coming out with a broad range of Voltec and strong hybrid vehicles that Toyota cannot match for a year or two. That would give GM some breathing room to make advances on the competition. GM must attack on all fronts to win.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:32 am
2 more generations? You mean 6-8 more years?
June 29th, 2009 at 10:33 am
Waiting, watching and springing has been their method in the past and it has and will probably continue to be a winning one for them. GM has an opportunity here with the Volt and its technology to change the game somewhat. But the Volt by itself is not a winning strategy. GM must attack on all fronts with technology and quality leading vehicles.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:35 am
It wasn’t a gamble. It was alreadt made for the Japanese Domestic market, just like MANY other Toyota vehicles we never see here. It was chosen to be marketed and sold in the States, and it took off.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:36 am
Hybrid technology is good for Prius Taxis…
June 29th, 2009 at 10:38 am
I have to agree with you there.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:41 am
+1, absolutely!
That’s the cool (and frustrating) thing about alternative energy. The model of one-size-fits-all from Alaska to Florida no longer applies. It’s cool because there’s a lot of fun engineering and analysis that goes into choosing What’s Right For You, but it’s frustrating because not everybody who starts thinking about alternative energy understands this. Also, living in a world with more complicated devices doesn’t excite most people the way it excites me…
As for BAS+, I came away from a discussion here a couple of weeks ago convinced that it can be a valuable addition to the lineup, provided that economics work out. I think the example I used was that the same people who pay more for a higher SEER-rating on their heat pump will probably pay more for higher MPG from a BAS+ hybrid. For those who aren’t green-car (or electric-car) enthusiasts, though, the decision probably does come down to the economics.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Jason M. Hendler: “I do see how the additional weight of the batteries would hurt the mileage when the engine is running,…”
In a production PHEV Prius, there is likely to be no “extra” weight of the batteries, as the PHEV Prius will drop the NiMH in favor of a more powerful battery of similar physical size (and, as a Li-Ion will likely be a little lighter; overall vehicle weight may drop).
Note the cost difference, too. The premium for a PHEV Prius will be mostly the *difference* in cost between the two batteries. Toyota might even be able to get better margins on a PHEV Prius for a time.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Toyota already is positioned for an EV. The 2010 Prius has a much stronger set of EV Motors. Their internal computer limits the EV functionality BUT it has already been cracked (I think more it was IMHO) and now older Prius can now have an AER and can go beyond it’s 34mph software limitted up to 70mph. Take this same software approach and implement on the 2010 and VIOLA! an AER of whatever you set it to (depending on batt capability).
They’re no fools.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:43 am
For those intersted in quality Buick is rated as superior to Toyota and Lexus. Buick is at the top so they also beat all the so-called luxury brands such as Mercedes, BMW, etc. It’s time for Americans to acknowledge GM knows how to make the highest quality cars in the world and GM is building the highest quality cars now despite their history.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Toyota is looking in world markets and working on world view than GM west view.
1) Most developing/underdeveliped countries does not have a electric infrastructure ( they have electricity shortage ) They will look for hybrid cars without plug-in. They are the upcoming markets
2) If they can sell 90% new parts in 2010 prius then they can sell a serial hybrid or a range extender in the same brand name in hours ( they will call HSD v2)
3) They already have test fleets with lithium ion batteries ( they say bad about it but they already have fleets )
4) Its easy to change electric motor of Prius and some logic changes to make Prius a Volt like or a full EV
5) They already have aerodynamic profile, they can refine to make it better.
I like most things of Toyota except they don’t have a fastlane kind of site to share new developments and educate public and they don’t have a Lyle to follow up a new development car.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:48 am
Your last paragraph could be describing me too!
I have taken to manually turning off my engine at stops. I get beeped at quite a bit when I’m too slow getting it restarted, but !@#$%^ them if they can’t take a joke. I’m saving the planet!
I dunno how much gas it saves, but it sure is a lot quieter and more restful while you’re waiting for the light to change, LOL.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:48 am
” I will now enjoy my superior breakfast amid a glorious day in the motherland.”
____________
Umm . . . . it’s after midnight in Tokyo. A little late for breakfast, don’t you think?
June 29th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Toyodasan vs. Carlos Gohsn? Interesting matchup.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:49 am
BAS II, unlike it primitive micro-hybrid predecessor, is fully the equal of the Honda mild-hybrid, IMG “Insight” design. It can now use stop-start, regenerative braking and power assist to provide increased fossil fuel economy. In this new form, it might actually justify its price. Eventually it will be standard equipment on all conventional autos.
Two-mode hybrids lend themselves to larger vehicles where battery power/size/cost is just insufficient to make the vehicle practical with today’s or tomorrow’s technology. Two-mode should exist for another few decades at the minimum. They should survive the HSD by a decade or more.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:55 am
So much the better. I hope that they slumber on and get well and truly blindsided.
For anyone who thinks that the mighty Toyota is infallible, I direct your attention to their sad performance in Formula 1 racing.
Literally billions spent, for very limited results – to be extremely generous. Nobody’s perfect.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:55 am
A somewhat non-responsive reply but I know you have an interest in the mpg in extended range mode. Have you seen this page on GM’s web site? I hadn’t seen it until recently and thought of you when I did:
http://www.gm.com/experience/technology/electric/
The last paragraph indicates that on a “long” trip you would get a 50 mpg equivalent. Given that the sign next to the text says 640 miles, and given that GM has a legal department which reviews all this stuff, I’m assuming this is the mpg GM expects in extended range mode. I’m also assuming that the equivalent mpg is for the use of E85, which we know contains considerably less energy than the same amount of gasoline.
To me this suggests that GM at least thinks that 50 mpg in extended range mode is in the ballpark.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:56 am
Charlie H,
Short of a hardcore few, people do NOT want to deal with a trailer to be able to go skiing (insert your own activity as needed) for the day. Or worse if they get redirected cross town during the day beyond their cars battery capacity.
Drive motors are at least as heavy as a differential and MUCH more expensive. I bet if an EREV Camero/Corvette hits the road it will have two motors much like you suggest.
An aluminum 1.4 4 cyl engine isn’t all that heavy but even so it’s a compromise, retuning an existing engine to run Atkinson (basically a CAM swap and computer reflash) is WAY less expensive than building a new engine from scratch. (Saving some of the money you mentioned previously.)
As for the Prius having potential to be better, I agree wholeheartedly. If Toyota can integrate the changes made by the more successful aftermarket folks they can help the world use a little less gas. As Martha says, that’s a good thing.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:56 am
I think you are spot on, Statik, in your evaluation of the new Toyota presidents words and intents.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:00 am
You’re right and GM is right that we shouldn’t limit ourselves to a one-size-fits-all mindset.
Both the two-mode and the BAS are tolerably good ideas. The problem with both is cost. The two-mode is FAR too expensive and the BAS is also too expensive.
Cutting SUV fuel consumption by a lot would certainly be attractive to some customers. But, perversely, the premium the manufacturer can charge for good city performance on a fullsize SUV is likely to be very low; this is because SUV owners don’t put much of a premium on fuel costs. If they did, they would downsize.
The two-mode setup also doesn’t help out all that much on the open road, most of those gains come from the advanced V8 that has VCM and from aerodynamic improvements. Those are very cost-effective technologies that GM should be straining to get into their vehicles (Toyota doesn’t seem to have VCM, although Honda does), along with DI (Toyota has it but it’s only available in Lexus, as far as I can tell – and Toyota’s system may be better – still, there’s a window left open here). In any event, I’d bet that highway fuel economy pulls more weight (pardon the pun) with SUV owners than city economy. For city chores, a smaller car can be substituted.
Two-mode might be more attractive to fleets but, again, it’s too expensive to make the numbers work.
BAS is a very sensible thing to do (in fact, Toyota offers this on very small JDM-only vehicles). Again, GM’s problem is price. If the 4-cylinder Malibu came with BAS, DI, the extra aero work and the 6-speed, standard, at the current Malibu base price, or vey close to it, they’d be kicking a$$ and taking names in the midsize sedan market. They’d have a highway number that looked a lot like the Camry hybrid’s number (maybe noticeably better) and while the EPA city cycle number might not improve much, real world performance (from a good system) would probably be impressive.
But the BAS vehicle is some $4-5K more than the base Malibu and, as currently set up, it offers little in the way of improvement.
In other words, where Toyota is really beating GM in hybrids, today, is in marketing and on manufacturing cost. Their car is smartly targeted to people willing to pay a a little extra to save gas and it saves lots of it over another midsize car for only slightly more than a midsize car. They are putting the Prius out at a price the Malibu hybrid can’t touch and the fully developed and amortized HSD system is compact enough and flexible enough to be deployed into other vehicles for very modest incremental development cost and then there are excellent economies of scale.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:07 am
I don’t think that you really mean that batteries need to improve by two orders of magnatude. That would be an improvement of 100 times. For example, a battery pack the size of the Volt’s would give you 4000 miles of all electric range. Perhaps you mean two doublings of energy density which is a factor of four.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Recent history aside, I think that is a huge mistake for them to take that attitude.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:09 am
What struck me when looking at the JD Power survey is that no one company dominated the ratings. Toyota was the best, but a lot of different companies were represented in the top three. So generally speaking I’d agree with you.
However, there are some caveats. One is the Chrylser was decidley underrepresented in the above average category. Two would be that I suspect GM and Ford have a few more dogs than Toyota or Honda.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:10 am
You are almost certainly correct. Especially about the Prius genset not being a Toyota invention.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:11 am
DonC,
I’ll bet that page hasn’t been updated in quite a while. Farah was recently quoted as saying “at least 300 miles.”
And a lot depends on what “long trip” means (for us, it’s 600 miles/day and total drip distances over 2000 miles) and whether or not one can recharge the car overnight when away from home (I don’t think I’ve ever stayed overnight anywhere away from home that I could recharge conveniently. At best, plan on carrying a long extension cord and beware of mischief or vandalism (what’s to keep someone from just pulling the plug and/or stealing your cable?).
June 29th, 2009 at 11:14 am
Jon Peacy says:
I wish you would write or allow more positive results in your comments like testimonials from people who actually bought and use hybrids and other quasi electric cars that Ford-GM-Chrysler actually make and sell?
————————————————
Everyone is free to post any comment supporting a competing technology on this site. We have pro-Prius comments all the time. We have had comments supporting a number of other auto companies. We welcome any comment, especially those that are helpful in out blogger’s attempt to find the ultimate fuel efficient vehicle for their needs. Ford is a major player in this market and we expect to see good things from them in the future. We welcome that.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Thanks, ThombDBhomb. I had not looked at the results of the poll for some time. It was interesting to see it again.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:23 am
The differential is cost effective.. two motors and two inverter/controllers are probably more expensive and heavier.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:26 am
I hadn’t seen that. Thanks for the link.
I don’t know what to make of that page. Some of those numbers (i.e. the 640 miles) are things we haven’t heard for a long time from any of the GM engineers. And of course there’s the “could, estimated, estimates” words in there. I still maintain that a real world volt 50 mpg hanging out at the 30% SOC would be an incredible feat, and next to impossible with ethanol. E85 vs E10 will drop mpgs 15 to 25% unless you’re going to run high compression.
Another thing of interest is that they have the “buffer zone” graphically depicted as from 30% all the way down to 15% SOC. From what I’ve read, this would be dangerously deep for extended battery life. But hey, I don’t have a 33,000 ft2 battery lab at my disposal – - – only google.
/The reason I have an interest in the Volt’s mpg (and more-so in it’s power/performance in EREV mode) is that the volt will not be competing in a vacuum. Regardless of what GM would like your perception to be, the Volt IS a plug-in hybrid, and will have to compete with other vehicles in this category.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:27 am
It’s just No Name again… nothing to see here.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:38 am
Mr. Toyoda is an extremely smart man. It runs in the family. Imperial bloodlines run deep. Listen to what this man says. He knows what he is talking about. Most ordinary men gain wisdom in his presence. GM could only dream of having a fearless leader like this. I have met him twice and am a better man for it. My advice to the Americans is this, do not pass judgment on him, he will be a great leader for Toyota and the world. Let me sum it up for the ordinary man. If the world had a President, his name would be Toyoda.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Toyoda may also have been thinking “Not Invented Here”. That is my guess. Along with “Toyota has a lot invested in Prius hybrid technology and we need more time to recapture more of that investment”. Plus “Toyota will wait, watch and pounce when Toyota is ready”.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:41 am
I have got to admit I have not taken my driveway into consideration when deciding to purchase a new vehicle. Now, just how do I interface with my driveway? Oh, yes………..
June 29th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Very likely they are working hard in the lab.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Gary,
This poster is the one dubbed “No Name” by Jackson.
They post under various names trying to stir things up.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:44 am
I think GM is going to do more cars like the Volt (a series hybrid) AND more “regular hybrids” … i.e. “power split hybrids” like the Prius.
The Volt will be a “premium hybrid” in the average customer’s eyes in the early years until the battery costs go way down … as expected. In 2015 or so, I’m sure GM will be able to offer all sorts of variations when it comes to “electrified powertrains”. You can get all the battery and performance you need/want and can afford.
Of course, gasoline prices will probably be very high in 2015 if the world economy starts booming again. Just imagine if the Chinese and the people in India start driving as many miles per year as us Americans do. There will probably be higher gasoline taxes in America too by then.
Electrified automobiles are definitely here to stay. The only question is the configuration of the powertrain, whether it is a plug-in or not, etc. The world isn’t going to run out of electricity any time soon. Not as long as the sun comes up … that means a few BILLION years. I think solar, wind, and other alternative energy sources are going to be huge in the future. Unless the oil companies find 10-15 more places like Saudi Arabia, the oil IS going to run out. What is left will be slurped up ravenously by more and more people in the world wanting to drive everywhere like Americans do.
Cars like the Volt will be a POWERFUL weapon to throw in the faces of the fatcat oil sheiks in the Middle East and Hugo Chavez who expect to get even more disgustingly rich as oil gets more and more expensive. People all over the world will laugh about NEEDING hardly ANY of their stinking oil anymore as they drive past gas stations on the way to work.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Good! GM needs to keep pursuing the VOLTEC avenue. I like it much better than the Hybrid concept.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:57 am
Do not sell Toyota short. This is a very dangerous corporation. A worldwide powerhouse that can make GM’s life miserable if they wanted to pull the trigger. Lucky for GM, Toyota is very gracious and has no plans to harm GM in the near future. GM must continue to show the utmost respect to the new leader in the automotive segment.
June 29th, 2009 at 11:57 am
I think you are absolutely right!
I’m looking forward to Chevy Volt comfortable instead of Prius smug.
June 29th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Unni,
Regarding #4, please review the article referenced in Jason M. Hendler’s comment #10:
http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1021735_long-term-study-of-plug-in-priuses-shows-disappointing-mpgs
I’m a Prius owner myself and seriously considered the Hymotion pack. Unfortunately, it’s uneconomical to upgrade the current parallel hybrid design even with Hymotion’s 100mpg claim. Now that results are showing significantly worse real life effectiveness (<10% improvement), that is a pretty serious indictment of the hybrid parallel design. The fact that the parallel design does not have a fundamentally modular architecture based on battery state of charge means it will be cost ineffective to move it towards a BEV design.
If I remember correctly, there were some debates between Toyota, GM, and board members here on the ability to extend the hybrid parallel design versus jumping to serial as a transition technology to full BEV’s. I found it very educational to read the articles; you may be interested in checking out the archives for these!
Cheers,
Eric
June 29th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
LOL! No Name you make me laugh!
June 29th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
I was driving next to the prius in my V6 minivan full of camping gear and 5 people. My vehicle was working hard. I have always assumed that a Prius would slow down considerablly on these hills. (My old Escort wagon used to really bog down when hauling 4 people over the mountains and it was difficult to maintain 60 mph up these hills). Surprising to me was that the Prius was holding its own on the hills and that the car had 4 people in it. It was loaded and still holding speed up the long hills.
I am not a Toyota fan but you have to give them credit with the Prius. It does not have too much competition for what it does … yet….
June 29th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
The Panasonic JV is a strong example of Toyota’s historic reliance on keirestsu to enforce learning across the extended enterprise and lock-in long term profits. They know the majority of car cost is being pushed from the ICE systems into the battery and are looking to lock-out the competition via battery tech. The fact that Toyota is sticking with Panasonic while their battery tech is behind worldwide competitive standards highlights the keiretsu strategy in action.
American companies are frequently prevented from such anti-competitive moves by monopoly regulation. As a result, probably the deepest GM will be allowed to go in the near term is battery pack integration, especially while they are financially distressed.
However, after EREV’s win the transitional architecture war and BEVs start gaining ground, it will be interesting to see if GM attempts to integrate further upstream into battery manufacturing itself.
In the long run, after a dominant battery tech is selected, it will make sense for GM to make this investment. They’ll be able to make major gains by the integrating knowledge from cell design through car software controls by keeping it all under one roof. The real question is timing: too early & they lock in the wrong technology; too late and they lose the medium term profit stream…
Another round of asymmetric economic warfare continues. Hopefully this time GM’s regulatory constraints will actually be a strength in forcing them to choose the right tech strategy…
June 29th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
I love my Toyota.
Why would a Toyota owner even think about buying a Chevy ? I mean really, are you serious ?
Remind me to send you a picture of me yawning.
June 29th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
MuthaF@#$%^ moderation again……
June 29th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
First, even if JDM-only, it was still a gamble.
Second, I don’t think their initial vision was JDM-only. That market is far smaller than the US. They had to sell this car in additional markets to get real profitability. JDM probably made a good test market. But after two years on the road, they made some engineering changes that they probably learned from JDM experience and sent it here. That strikes me as a sensible game plan.
June 29th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
… Come on now! What’s that Edison who was quoted as having said that?
June 29th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Why all the Toyota hate from Volt fanboys ?
I think if the Prius had failed there would be no Volt project. In a sense the Prius is the godfather of the Volt. Think about that.
I will continue to drive in my “ugly” Prius until something better comes along. Right now the Volt looks promising but a lot can happen in a couple of years.
June 29th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
@Hal Lusinashin 33
No hatin here. As soon as my post get’s out of moderation you’ll see why I think the Prius has a strong foothold and can go a full EV.
Dang moderf!@#ation….
June 29th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
As my old friend Harold Walker used to say, “It’s getting pretty deep in here.”
June 29th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
You and MuddyRover may be right. But, bear in mind, that would be two lighter motors (distribute the power equally between). And I’m pretty certain it would still be lots less drag.
And it would simplify traction control.
Of course, GM does have lots of experience with FWD/differentials, so this probably also helped contain cost and kept them working in realms where they had experience, which helps achieve an on-time, under-budget result.
My remarks shouldn’t be taken as “this is bad,” but I was pointing out that there are limits to how “advanced” we should consider the Volt to be.
MuddyRover also wrote, in reference to trailer-mounted gensets, “Short of a hardcore few…”
At first, when I read that, I nodded my head and thought, MRB’s on to something… and then I realized that this car, especially at 10K units, is pitched to the hardcore few. Logistically, though, the roadside service I suggested might be difficult.
We won’t know what the market will tolerate until someone tries it. The trailer-mounted genset will probably come from a BEV manufacturer. From the perspective of the BEV itself, the trailer-mounted genset looks like an electrical socket. All the BEV needs is a small hitch and to place the socket in the rear. Adding additional control interface and circuitry for smart generator/battery management would not cost much at all.
In fact, I’ve seen pictures of such a device towed behind a Rav4-EV (LongRanger). They used a 500cc twin water-cooled motorcycle engine and overall fuel economy was apparently better than a stock Rav.
June 29th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
I followed a new Chevy Camaro yesterday. It had a awesome sounding exhaust and nice striped paint job. Some guy that looked like Uncle Jessey from the Dukes of Hazzard was behind the wheel. The whole episode was surreal, like I was in a 1970s time warp. Anyway I don’t understand why GM is making this car, yes it will make some money, but it does nothing for their image. The perception of GM is big gas guzzling pickups, SUVs and sports cars. They need an image makeover really bad and this car doesn’t help. Wise up GM, start making cars that most people want.
June 29th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
Why wouldn’t a Volt be smug? If anything, smug should be related to the price one pays. The Prius is available at a practical, affordable price and the Volt won’t get there for years.
June 29th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
As you and charlie h suggest that page is doubtlessly old and hasn’t been updated in a while. If you notice the end paragraph says the genset will recharge the battery pack. We haven’t heard that in a while!
Those things aside, I thought it interesting because at least at one point in time GM thought the Volt would get something near 50 mpg in extended mode. It seems to be saying that you can go 40 miles in EV mode and then, using the 12 gallon gas tank (remember that?), you can go another 600 miles. Since the energy numbers have tended to stay the same over time, though design details have changed, I take this as a good indication that we’ll see something at or near 50 mpg when the Volt is released. But that of course is as much a read of the tea leaves as anything else. I have no expertise in this area at all.
I think the mpg in extended mode is interesting. Not critical but interesting none the less. The big deal is going to be the EPA mpg number. Everyone expects this to be over 100 but it could be much larger, and I’m sure GM understands that in this case the bigger the better. (Like those Enzyte commercials …. )
June 29th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
The sun is rising on me. I am the ultimate green car.
June 29th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
@Eric White 30
Google for:
2009/06/10/picc-plug-in-prius-can-now-go-70-mph-on-battery-power
Although it cost a sh|tload ~$12K, it is still not impossible to get an all electric range. These guys got 25 miles AER out of their mod. No details on the battery but my uneducated GUESS is it was only about a 3-4KW batt pack. Prices will go down. One thing that needs to happen is a standardization and sh|t should be interchangable. I hate this proprietariness of technology. They’re just batteries for pete’s sake!
Fukin link moderation.
It’s not like I’m posting Porn or anything….
June 29th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
At Toyota, we never sleep. You Americans sleep too much and watch too much fantasy television that numbs your brains. You gorge yourself in McBurgers, McFries and other unhealthy foods. Your manners are atrocious and you smell. While you Americans are getting your beauty rest, Toyota is hard at work solving the world’s most pressing automotive problems.
June 29th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Thanks ,
Yes i went through those,
I am saying if Toyota wants, they can change it to plugin with less effort, I dont believe this third party conversions because Its just hacks than a full project.
June 29th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Fair enough Charlie H,
But being fair you cannot call the first year production number the end all production number. However you do have a point there, the first year cars are going to be snapped up in a blink. In year two the numbers will exceed those required by the “hardcore” folks.
The Volt is going to be a regular car, I rode to school with my parents in a Chevy and my kids do too.
I’m just hoping to get a chance to sit in one next year!
It WILL be a while until GM builds as many “new technology” cars as Toyota has and Kudo to Toyota for that achivement.
I think the real world fuel economy numbers are going to come out very much in favour of Voltec. I’ll stand up and say I was wrong if it turns out I am but I think I’m safe!
June 29th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
CaptJackSparrow,
Any real world results from the PICC installs? It would be interesting to compare actuals against the Hymotion packs.
My guess is that they are probably around ~$1k/kwh similar to the A123 packs for the Hymotion upgrade. Without knowing any more, I’d imagine they’d run into lifetime robustness problems if they’re draining these undersized packs down to a low state-of-charge.
But I’d love to be proven wrong!
June 29th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
At $25k nicely loaded for a 50 MPG car, Prius right now is a much better deal than any EREV.
The Prius is still in early stages of its technology lifecycle. It will not become obsolete until there is a significant change in the landscape.
Possible drivers are:
—Batteries become cheap enough to make EREV almost as cheap as Prius. Could happen in a couple of years, or may never happen.
—Gas goes up to $20 per gallon. At any lower price, the economic buyer would still buy the much cheaper Prius, and be willing to pay for the small amount of gas used by the fuel sipping Prius. This might never happen. At $10 per gallon, the demand for gas would fall so low that a higher price may never be supported.
—70 MPG CAFE standard. Seems unlikely.
—US fuel taxes of $15 per gallon. Very unlikely
At any rate, Toyota has plenty of time to monitor the landscape, and jump into EREV when the time is right, if ever. At that point, EREV will be extremely mature technology, and Toyota will be in a position to do what the Japanese do best–copy US inventions with lower cost and higher quality.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
For the vast majority of the people it will always come down to the economics of the decision. For quite a number of years yet, anyway. That may change slowly, but most people cannot afford the added cost of the specialty hybrid systems for a 2 or 3 MPG gain. The economics aren’t there to support the purchase. If GM or some other auto company can bring mileage increase up while decreasing the cost, then the market will catch on to them. Oh, wait. Didn’t Toyota do that with the Prius? But even Toyota has not been able to transfer the success of the Prius hybrid technology to their other lines. Mostly, I think, that the people interested in spending money for a hybrid want a car that is distinctively a hybrid. The Camry hybrid, for instance, is not distinctively anything other than a Camry. Same held true for Honda’s Accord Hybrid, GM’s Malibu Hybrid and others. The lesson here is that to be successful, you must be distinctive. The Volt fits that to a T. Question is can GM transfer the Volt’s success to other car lines without remaking the line into a distinctive vehicle? Time will tell.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
The NiMH battery pack is only sufficiently sized to handle regenerative braking – there’s no way a similarly sized Li Ion pack could take you 40 miles, which is required to see a substantial reduction of gasoline.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
The Gen 3 Prius height is 58.7 inches. In the picture of Akio Toyoda, it looks like he towers over the Prius. He’s, what, 7.5 feet tall?
June 29th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
I agree with your assessment. Very well put.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Although you may think fossil fuels are going to run out and the world will convert to renewables, here are the forecasts by the DOE.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/highlights.html
And global CO2 emissions increase from 29 billion metric tons in 2006 to 40.4 in 2030.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
The batts they use ar still NiMH. I don’t think there;s any real world testing yet.They have plans to go Lithium something. Lithium should give it a little longer range due to less weight. It’s still a descent approach to go full EV at some point of your drive whether its 10 miles or 20 up to freeway speeds. If they can achieve a 10AER in the 2010 model, then I think this would force the Volt’s price down.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
The Prius is a proven commodity. The Volt is unproven. The durability of the Volt’s series-hybrid design is a big question mark. If they have to start doing recalls then game over for this technology. Right now the Prius is gold in the bank. It truely is the gold standard. It will take many years before the masses will accept the reliability of a Volt. Meanwhile the Prius just keeps going and going…and getting better and better.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
I would be please even if the “taxpayer” viewpoint was not a consideration.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Ha Ha. Voltec IS a Hybrid concept.
Hello Doofus, please get a clue.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
My Name Is Nobody.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Hey, Nobody is my name !
June 29th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
If Toyo wanted to change it up. all they would have to do is adjust specs on their software to allow up to freeway speeds to the point of depleting the batt pack to the minimum SOC depending on batt pack size. That is essentially what these “Hacks” do. Toyo just has the ability to change the program using their IDE interface and sanction it as theirs and they can call it done. It’s only software with logic, not rocket science.
I agree though that Hymotion is a hack. Why? Because they don’t make modifications to the system computer to corellate the change in batt pack storage.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Toyota ROCKS !!!
June 29th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
“Tom Cruise”
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
U crack me up dude!!!!!
June 29th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
“The durability of the Volt’s series-hybrid design is a big question mark. ”
True, but it will never get answered and we will never know if it doesn’t come out.
Of course it’s at the funding of tax payers $$$!
June 29th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Go Daddy Go !
June 29th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Carcus 1 Well, I say, you are back! Splendid!
I recall the mean spirited little Nipponese to be constantly shoveling rice from little bowls into their little mouths between the time that they were poking us with bayonets whilst we tried to build a bridge for them. Rather unpleasant memory really and MOST happy that they failed 100%. So I guess, not so, ah, superior. Nice battleships despite their nasty habit of eventually sinking.
And to think that HONDA is also working on robots! Something more to fret about. Back to roasting here in Tejas.
Best Regards! Higgins and the Boys
June 29th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
That is an old page. I saw it over a year ago, it seems. The Volt pictured in the Weber video is the concept Volt. Some of the page may have been updated, but most of the stuff is dated. The 640 miles figure was when they were talking about having two saddle tanks, one on each side of the battery of about 6 gallons each. The 12 gallons x 50 MPG = 600 miles plus the 40 miles on battery. That is where the 640 miles road sign came from. We are not yet just sure of what GM is going to offer in fuel tank size, but I think they are still counting on the 50 MPG and the 40 miles per charge. Nothing really new here.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
One thing for certain. We will see about that. You and Toyota may be right. But you could be dead wrong. Most of us here feel like GM is correct and we don’t really give a damn what Toyota thinks. Toyota is saying and doing what is in their best interest. That interest is for the public to continue buying what Toyota gives you. Never mind any technological breakthroughs. If Toyota has not recovered their investment in technology or made enough money on a vehicle line, then they are against anything that might threaten that. Nothing new about that.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Mr marharguitar,
No not quite.
Yes, I agree that a 4000 mile range is not what is wanted, or needed.
What is needed is an enormous price reduction as well; and a commensurate size reduction as well, for better packaging, together with better chemistry. The Volt is reduced to a four seater, or the trunk must be sacrificed, as a possible design alternative, now. Neither is a wholly acceptable choice long term. Eventually the appropriate design consideration would be to provide a daily range of 3 Sigma AER, of the USA daily driving pattern, so some additional battery capacity would be needed, too.
Plus the average size of a vehicle, given that fuel is no longer a consideration would be approximately a D+ size auto. That is what it used to be in the free USA when “full size” cars were the choice of most; and fuel costs were not an issue at all. In the intervening periods since 1973, people even here in the USA have migrated downward in what they consider acceptable sized auto compromises.
The heart of the US market is still large C-segment or D-segment cars. In Europe, with their highly taxed fuels driving up the price, I observe that it is a B-segment to C-segment size auto that is most common. The tiny A-segment autos are talked about often, but sold in relatively tiny numbers, even in Europe. They are coming to America, but I doubt that they will be much more than a niche auto market.
Don’t you believe for a moment that the average person, even in Europe, would not aspire to a roomier, safer, MB S-Class sized auto if it were affordable, and the fuel to feed it, were not an issue.
As battery prices plunge, and the fuel costs decrease, there will be a general upsizing of autos worldwide,that will consume battery capacity. The USA having reduced size the least, will grow in size the least. But EU and the World will “upsize” markedly.
The green Loons with their un-economic and un-neccessary, high-priced and inefficient wind and solar ideas, will be but a passing fancy. Cheap electricity in massive amounts, will come from perfected Fission power plants, within the decade, from the coming fleet of GEN III+ power plants in the pipeline. And then in a couple of decades from Fusion power plants. People do not generally understand that the Fusion power plant, financed by the world, now building in Cadarache France, is the last experiment before genuine, Fusion power plants contributing to the power grids, are constructed.
You need those two orders of magnitude battery improvement to provide for all these needs, not just the mere range and mileage wants for theh Volt that you quote.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Agreed. But money talks and Toyota wants to maximize their investment in HSD. That might be the Achilles heel for Toyota.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Enlighten my ignorance, what’s “HSD”?
June 29th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Let’s make a deal. When the Volt outsells the Prius I will personally pose completely nude in a Volt photo shoot and release the links to the hi resolution pics here in this blog site. Get busy you wonderful GM engineers. Don’t let me down. Go Daddy that.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Item: The research which led to the Prius was done in the US for US automakers; the engineering details were done in Japan, but not the original concept or premise.
Item: Toyota kept the Prius project close to home until they built up a lot of reliability information.
Item: They did not bring the car to the US until they could do so without losing any money on the sale (they may not have made much either, but this isn’t quite the same thing).
Toyota was not even the first Japanese automaker to test the US waters with a hybrid; competitor Honda came out with the original Insight first. When Toyota did enter the US market with a hybrid, it was somewhat tentatively; but unlike Honda, they were here to stay.
They started with a borrowed idea, let someone else take the first plunge, gradually evolved a more reliable design through incremental changes. This isn’t exactly a bold history.
I don’t want to say that the Japanese can’t or won’t take chances, just that their conservative philosophy is simply not on the same scale as the “Moon Shot” Volt.
And, as others have said, this has served them very well.
June 29th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
I’d look for the 2011 Ford Focus (ecoboost, 6 spd powershift tranny) and Chevy Cruze to compete in the $20k-ish 40+ mpg category.
Top competitors in this category would then likely include:
1. Prius
2. Jetta TDI
3. Insight
4. Focus
5. Cruze
/this is really where the volume competition for high mpg cars will be for the next couple of years, imo
June 29th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
Well, the lack of a Lyle to share new developments and educate the public leaves a window of opportunity for you to step through. Go ahead. I am sure Lyle would share some of the pitfalls to watch out for in setting up a site like this for the Toyota world.
Problem is Toyota already has a built in PR unit in the auto magazines, national media and the guy who lives just down the street. And it doesn’t cost them a dime or a single moment of time. GM has to work its butt off trying to get some decent press from the media and gets very little for its money and time. I guy like Lyle is invaluable to GM, but they don’t quite know how to handle the situation. I think they are beginning to understand that by giving Lyle more access to GM plants, vehicles and people they are bypassing the media they can’t win over and are getting their message out through a new medium. Now, they have to build great quality vehicles to drive the point home even better.
But, you go on and set up a site for Toyota vehicles. You will probably be successful. I highly recommend it to you. Not that you said you wanted to, but why not?
June 29th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Ah, the future. I can smell it now.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
“Drive motors are at least as heavy as a differential and MUCH more expensive.”
You’re half right. See CalMotors spec’s on their package for a medium car. Note the weight of the motor…
Peak Power
112 kW / 150 hp
Continuous Power
59 kW / 79 hp
Peak Torque
210 Nm / 155 lb-ft
Continuous Torque
95 Nm / 70 lb-ft
Maximum Speed
8800 RPM
Efficiency
97%
Min Coolant Flow (50/50 Glycol / H2O)
5 l/min
Inlet Coolant Temp
55 °C / 155 °F
Max Inlet Coolant Pressure
2.0 Bar / 30 PSI
Weight
50 kg / 109 lbs
Dimensions (LxWxH)
376mm X 185mm X 185mm / 14.8″ X 7.3″ X 7.3″
But you are correct in their price which is not posted which only means it cost a sh|tload.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
In other words: Please bow your heads and display you neck to the new imperial world leader. Yeah, right!
June 29th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Well said. Thanks.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
“Electric cars’ battery life is limited, and that has not been solved,” said Toyoda.
Good thing no one said that about portable computers 15 years ago.
“We would like to utilize our hybrid technology because we have accumulated quite a bit of knowledge about battery usage for hybrid cars.”
Uhh…doesn’t sound like an actual reason to use that technology, especially in light of the advancement and inevitable domination of other technology (cough, Volt).
June 29th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
N. Riley — I agree. Lots of people come into Chevy dealerships that are not going into Toyota dealerships, just like the reverse. Chevy’s challenge is to sell its own group on the Volt. If it can, and I think that is possible, that new market can sustain the Volt whatever happens with Prius. Right now the overall car market is so much bigger than the Prius market that there is lots of opportunity.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
There’s plenty of room both. Ever see a Toyota Sequoia? Green company my foot!
June 29th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
GaryCB said GM has already caught the “Hail Mary Pass”. Voltec technology is far ahead of Toyota’s Prius design and for those who say “Seeing is believing”, open your eyes to what GM has already achieved.
—————————————————————–
What GM has accomplished is remarkable and wonderful. Still, there are no actual cars in production, and of course none for sale right now. So what’s to come is still unsure in my opinion. I’m optimistic, but GM has no product out there for sale just yet.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
I think the Focus BEV is to be released in late 2011.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
We yawn too, at the boring product lineup graced upon us by the likes of Corollas and Yarises (or Yariis?).
June 29th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Your ( . y . ) aren’t big enough for me…..
June 29th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
I read this…
““We would like to utilize our hybrid technology because we have accumulated quite a bit of knowledge about battery usage for hybrid cars.””
as
We’re stuck in our old ways and invested too much into it to abandon it.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
I’d like to have a two-mode truck, but they remain a big uptic on the price from the standard one. GM needs to find a way to narrow that cost difference for people to buy them in large numbers.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Was it: “Its always dark until you turn the light on”?
June 29th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
He’s no fool. He’ll let everyone else work through the headaches then jump in after everyone’s hangover is gone and pigyback on the batt tech. Like I said before, I think they have something up their sleeve’s and my guess is an augmented batt pack with new software.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Hybrid Synergy Drive. I think I spelled it correctly. Well, If I didn’t you won’t even notice the spelling after the 4th or 5th beer. Have another one. I would say have one on me. But how could you do that?
June 29th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Aw man, DIY’rs have been coddling the “Diva” for years using simple BMS boards that do basically the same thing electrically to the cells. Protecting LVC, HVC and max current flow. The only additional thing GM put is environmental control and blast protection packaging with monitoring to the system computer. Technically you don’t need all that if the batt pack was designed to be “Stand Alone”. Again, more proprietaryiness.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Getting???
June 29th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Well, it is not ALL hate. You know what they say about hate and love, don’t you?
June 29th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
So right you are N Riley!
Recalling their tender little sensibilities out in the jungles I am of mind to not see our necks so exposed to the sharp edged anything of the Nippons. Their leader who was NOT brought up on war crimes but should have, Emperor Hirohito, penned a poem that was laden with a hidden message safe from the military Round Eyes perusal. Something about a 100 year war and doing it via economics this time around. No time for bowing for no telling as to what they are really up to. The Lads, Zeus and Apollo are growling with their funny little paint mustaches.
Regards!——Higgins
June 29th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Excellent page and new to me, thank you. I did note that it said “50 equivalent miles per gallon” near the bottom. To me that suggested that the initial 40 miles all electric was being included in the averaging, thus “equivalent” mpg, rather than the 50 being mpg in the ICE mode.
If the Volt can get the same mileage in ICE mode as the Honda civic hybrid (40/42/45), it will be doing great. To me 50 is a target too far away to be realistic.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Pretty much…
June 29th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
I almost bought a 2009 Prius last October. I may very well purchase a 2010 or 2011 for my wife. It is the Volt for me. If I can afford it.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Who said anything about “40 miles?” It will likely have much less. It just has to have enough to persuade people that it’s a PHEV. People like me, with very short commutes, would favor this over a far more expensive vehicle with a range much longer than our requirements.
And the tax credit for PHEV/RE-EVs is graduated to some extent. Toyota knows this and they’re not known for leaving money on the table. I expect they’ll qualify for some level of credit. Given the NiMH delete, this could put the effective price of the PHEV Prius, perversely, below that of the regular Prius (well, Toyota or the dealers will mark it up to fix that problem).
June 29th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
HSD = “Hybrid synergy drive” or something like that. It’s Toyota’s lingo for their transmission, that mixes ICE and electric drive just so.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Well said, Noel, well said.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
GM is making cars and trucks that most people want. Problem is they are buying them from Toyota, Nissan and Honda. The same size and types of cars and trucks but with better fit and finish. Plus they don’t have the bad image that GM got caught with because of the poor job they did back in the 70’s and 80’s when Toyota, Nissan and Honda were selling bad cars and trucks when compared to what they sell today. Same for GM. When compared to what GM sells now, they are a world ahead of where they used to be. But, like the bad boy of the neighborhood, they can’t out live their bad reputation.
I would love to own a new Camaro convertible. When it comes out, I will be looking. Gas guzzling? Compared to what. If you purchase the V6 with the 6 speed automatic, you get very respectful mileage. As good as a Toyota Camry. Or there abouts. Sure, if you go for the largest V8 you use a lot more fuel. But have you really looked at the fuel mileage charts of all of Toyota vehicles larger than a Camry? They are terrible. Most Chevy trucks do better than any Toyota truck. Chevy Suvs are as good or better than Toyota SUVs. Toyota sells a lot of small cars and that helps their green image. But it does not help it as much as uninformed people and those who write hatchet jobs for Toyota against GM, Ford and Chrysler vehicles. IMO.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
You’ve got a lot better sense of humor than I do.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Is speaking porn the same as posting porn, CJS? LOL
June 29th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Lots of misinformation and guesses there.
1) Introducing any car is a gamble. Toyota had no way of knowing for sure that the Prius would make money in the US (and some suggest that it didn’t initially)… especially with Honda not doing too well.
2) It was hardly a “borrowed” idea. Honda and Toyota were working on these things at about the same time. The Prius was mass-produced before the Insight.
3) Why are you tying the bravery and boldness of GM regarding the Volt to the moment that they sell it overseas? Surely of all the things to consider that is near the last. Or should I say that GM is still timid because brave and bold Honda paved the way for the Volt by introducing hybrids in the US? Or should I say that GM is the “typical scared US company” because they aren’t mass-selling the Volt in Pakistan the same day as California?
4) The Volt isn’t a “moon shot”. We have to stop saying that. That was pure PR. It is a relatively simple thing to do. Numerous other companies have shown it, including BYD.
When considering what GM has/hasn’t done, you really need to consider the position they were in. GM had very little good current fuel efficient product, a very poor image, and very little to lose (When you are bleeding buckets, what is another thimble? Especially when it increases your odds of government transfusion.)
But most importantly, I think you should consider what Lutz himself has recently said. The Volt wasn’t about the right product for the consumer; it was foremost about one-upping Toyota… and mostly for the PR. Not only that, the Volt is a compromise on his original idea.
At some point you have to realize that few other companies are doing this not because it is difficult (which know it isn’t), but because it is generally the wrong solution. It is only because of GM’s horrible situation that they made the Volt. Perhaps the brave decision for GM would have been to make the right product (see: Ford) rather than show their true purpose with a Volt commercial in 2007.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
If you add the Honda Civic hybrid, I’ll agree.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Thanks, Will consider the recommentation.
GM earned this reputation and it didn’t came just in a day. Now if they build good cars for 5 -100 years and rewamp there operations better, i am sure people will again care ( remember around 80% market share belonged to domestic in 70’s ). Learn from Hundai how they earned the reputation over the years.
I was driving a Pontiac for 2 years , after i thought i will try another brand and brought a volvo ( it is 5 cylinder inline engine – none other makes it and 2 USPs – Safe , Smooth ). If i find a better car – i wont care its toyota or GM or some other ( its my money and i value my money so i buy good stuff ). If Gm want my money – make cars which i like .My like is not just looks.
One of the GM cars i liked was Aztek – people named it ugliest SUV and GM never noticed they can make an aerodynamic design of it easily and adding a hybrid power train and keep it at low profile till gas prices sky rocked. A V2 may have made some miles for free by just making it aerodynamic. They never wasted any money in research and development and that what they suffer now. The pennies goes to R&D comes after years and some times nothing comes back. They have to invest in something which comes back , Else company will go to bankruptcy – school kids knows this and CEOs don’t ?
They didn’t understand what may be the unique selling point or how to turn a flop model to a success. All they need is new people who can really turn the table around.
Look again : Toyota fired 30% + of the mgmt when they saw the losses. GM never did it , they fired normal workers who dont have any stake in this failure. CEO took 30% pay cut when its was bad outlook, Gm used private jets at the debt. Gm believed it business, not better car making. Its expected dude.
To be true : Why you need to hate to love other ? You can love both. To be true: I follow the Volt as technology ( EREV ) – not GM and same i like some aspects of Toyota also (ex: HSD) . It doesn’t mean that i like one of them, I like both. The best part is some GM followers think that rest of the world is Toyota/Honda followers ( like Bush,- Rest of the world is terrorists ).
I am not sided but i say king is nude
June 29th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Toyota and the other Japanese auto companies have two big worries on their plate. South Korea and China. They are more worried about these two that what transpires on the Volt vs Prius scene. IMO.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
It is all in the camera angle.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
B Hogg writes, “Some guy that looked like Uncle Jessey from the Dukes of Hazzard was behind the wheel.”
What’s that old coot doing, driving a Chevy? I thought Buick was their geezer brand?
June 29th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Well, the Prius has had plenty of recalls and defects. It will continue to have recalls and defects. It is just most people don’t hear about a Toyota recall or defect because it does not get widely reported. But it does happen just like a tree falling in the forest makes sound whether or not some thing is there to hear it or not.
The Volt given time and attention will get better and better. It will be a good vehicle. Let’s just hope GM gets credit for the good things as much as it will get credit for the bad things.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Danica, I’m afraid by then, you may be so old we won’t want to look.
I might catch a lot of thumbs-downs for this. Its sooo worth it.
June 29th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
I suppose that is your ranking in the order of mpg, also. I think you are pretty well correct. The Focus and/or Cruze might even beat out the Insight. We will have to wait to see. Of course, Honda is already planning some changes to the Insight plus coming out with a Fit hybrid to give them some additional help in fighting the Prius. So, you may have to add the Fit hybrid somewhere between 1st and 3rd place. IMO.
June 29th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Greed. Funny thing that investment thingy. It kinda wants to tie you up until you recover it and then make some more on the investment. Toyota is just now beginning to realize some money from all of that investment and they don’t want to turn loose just yet. That is OK with me. Just hang onto that HSD tit as long as you can, Toyota. The longer the better. IMO.
June 29th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
“all in the camera angle”
Hey, that’s Porn related too and you didn’t get moderated…..
=op
June 29th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
See my reply in #39
June 29th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
There appear to be a lot of Prius fanboys here today.
June 29th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Fukin moderation….
More GM Toyota news.
Google for: execs-to-meet-with-toyota-regarding-hybrid-sharing/
June 29th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Rumors that General Motors may get access to Toyota’s proprietary hybrid technology just won’t go away. Today, Bloomberg cites two unnamed sources in reports that Toyota President Akio Toyoda and GM chief Fritz Henderson will meet this August in Michigan to discuss the possibility of a GM-badged version of the Toyota Prius hybrid hatchback.
For the record, both General Motors and Toyota have repeatedly denied that any such talks have taken place and have said it’s unlikely that they ever will in the future. Many of these rumors indicate that the two automakers are considering building the Prius together at the New United Motor Manufacturing Incorporated (NUMMI) joint venture in California, but GM has today announced that its involvement in NUMMI is over.
It remains a possibility that Toyota will fully take over the reigns at NUMMI to finally build the Prius in America, but even if that’s the case, it’s extremely unlikely that General Motors will have anything to do with the project in light of its own massive undertaking of readying the Chevy Volt for the market in 2011.
June 29th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
He is larger than life in Japan. Show some respect. Crawl back in your hole troll.
June 29th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
And then, the very first twenty or so coming (for sale or inspection) here, will be taken apart by
1. GM in easy search for infringement,
2. All US Federal Agencies to be assured that it will be safe, in compliance with our laws, and,
3. Not have any patent and trade law infringements as found in #1.
I really don’t expect any infringement whatsoever, because as GM is at least 5 years ahead of all other OEM’s, they would be able to very easily spot any GM proprietary systemic functioning in minutes, literally minutes into analysis.
More likely, something called the “zeitgeist”, or “the spirit of the times” causes a very like-minded set of situations for engineers whom literally invent the same thing at about the same time. Thomas Edison invented the incandescent light bulb. But a year earlier, in Germany, the florescent light bulb was invented. Compact Florescent Bulbs are what we (always ought to) buy today.
Dan.
June 29th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
That’s what Photoshop is for.
June 29th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
______________________________________________________
Why is a Series Hybrid more fuel efficient than a Parallel Hybrid?
I was asked that question yesterday by a poster (Monroe) and have since then been snooping around for answers.
Although there are a dozen items that in the aggregate makes a Series Hybrid more fuel efficient than Parallel Hybrid, the primary reason is Constant Speed ICE vs.Variable Speed ICE.
Series Hybrid = Constant Speed ICE
A Series Hybrid (Chevy Volt setup) gets its power from the electric motor throughout the car’s required power band curve while the control software moves the requirement of variable power from the ICE to the battery buffer. This arrangement allows the ICE to always operate at peek efficiency (constant speed).
Parallel Hybrid = Variable Speed ICE
A Parallel Hybrid (Prius setup) gets its power from the electric motor up to a certain point of the car’s required power band curve then the electric motor remains at constant power while the ICE kicks in and variably assists along the higher end power band points. This arrangement requires the ICE to often operate at non peek efficiency (variable speed).
Assuming both hybrid setups have the same battery capacity and neither hybrid utilizes grid power (meaning all power originates from ICE & Regen) the Series Hybrid’s ICE (working at constant speed) will operate more efficiently than the Parallel Hybrid’s ICE (working at variable speeds) even after taking into account the differences with regards to battery charge/discharge dynamics between the two types of setups (provided the Series setup has good control software logic).
The Prius Plug-in:
On a related note, some posters have pointed out that recent published studies have concluded that a Parallel Hybrid Prius fitted with a larger battery and plug provides only minimal added fuel savings compared to a standard Prius.
Why is this???
Answer: Because the Prius is a Paralel Hybrid….
Although a larger battery and plug offers a Prius the ability for the electric motor to run longer and at a higher point in the car’s power band curve, the ICE still operates as a variable speed ICE to assist at the higher end of car’s power band curve. The cruel GOTCHA here is that the higher up the car’s power band curve the electric motor is allowed to operate, the less efficient the variable speed ICE operates because the ICE itself is kicking in to assist at the lower efficient band curve of the ICE; cancelling much of the benefit of the electric motor operating higher up the power band curve…A cruel joke for Parallel Hybrid fans wanting a Plug. Additionally, once the battery of a Prius Plug-in is depleted, the variable speed ICE is forced to operate a much wider range of the power band curve.
If Toyota elects to transition the Prius to Plug-in capable, they will have to adopt the series architecture in order to achieve meaningful mpg improvements under normal driving conditions.
______________________________________________________
June 29th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Try: http://www.intuitymedialab.eu/feuersee-times/
June 29th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
There is something intrinsically humble about driving a Chevy.
Even the Corvette is the worlds humble ’supercar’.
You have a point with the first year and possibly the entire GEN 1 run likely being expensive. (Since we still don’t really know the retail price.)
After that I think it’ll be back to being a nice Chevy.
You are of course free to disagree but since this IS a Chevy ‘fan’ site its not unexpected to find people who are ‘fans’.
I sadly miss my dad’s ‘68 Impala convertable 396 ss… he sold it before I could get my hands on it.
June 29th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
She will have a checkered past by then but I think she would still make it to the finish line while everyone else is exhausted. She’s such a poser.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
And further to that he’s a Duke!
He’s supposed to be driving a Charger!
June 29th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
If Toyota elects to transition the Prius to Plug-in capable, they will have to adopt the series architecture in order to achieve meaningful mpg improvements under normal driving conditions.
——————————————
Or rewrite their software to allow the battery operation through longer speed cycles until the battery reaches a depleted SOC percentage. There is no real reason that the Prius with the proper size battery and corrected software could not become a better fuel efficient vehicle that could give longer miles under EV mode. Of course, this is just my uneducated opinion. I sure don’t know all there is to know about the situation. I am just drawing from what others have posted here and what I have read on other sites.
Edited: I did enjoy what you said about series vs parallel hybrids. Explained it where even I could understand it. Thanks for that. I agree the series hybrid is superior to the parallel. Else we would be doing our blogging on the Prius owner blogs, I suppose. Or fusing with GM to hurry up and build a Prius like hybrid. But wait. I have been doing that, haven’t I?
June 29th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
It is pretty much common practise to take your competition and strip it down and reverse engineer it. GM has a monster facilty in Warren to do just that. They call it the ‘Vehicle Assessment and Benchmarking Activity center’.
Here is a shot from inside the facilty: (In this shot you have a Prius, VW Touareg and some others)
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/14.02/images/FF_136_teardown2_f.jpg
June 29th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
I always get a kick out of the male/female ratio.
/49 to 1
June 29th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
When one adds the $12k for the ‘extended’ battery to the cost of a prius the price ends up mid to high $30k’s. For 25 miles AER.
The Volt is looking better and better all the time!
June 29th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Thanks for the link carcus, I enjoyed…I had not seen that before.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Capt, I imagine that topic is on deck next.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
I doubt the series-hybrid is better, since both ICE use Atkinson-cycle engines (instead of Otto-cycle). The Parallel is cheaper to make and arguably more reliable and definitely easier to modify in future configurations to optimize newer technology on the horizon. The main advantage will have to go the Prius due to cost. In the end the cost to purchase and operate will win in this space. The better technology will probably move upscale and eventually fade out.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Very well put! Better than my attempts!
Thanks!
June 29th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Since I don’t know you from any other female, I find it hard to work up a yeah from me. Who the heck are you and why should I care to look upon your naked body? Now or in a few years (especially in a few years – you will be older – ugh!).
June 29th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
OK, so I did find out who Danica Patrick is by googling the name, but does that mean you are who you say you are? I kinda doubt it.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Synergy Drive converted to plug-in is just not efficient enough, nor will it ever be.
Simple software changes are not going to be nearly enough, or they would have already done it 5 years ago.
Toyota is design-entrenched for years to come, that is what a design-commitment does, especially in Japan (very long term contracting) and they are in deep trouble about it.
They are locked into SHD for 5 more years. This is only one of about 500 design-reasons why GM is 5 years ahead of them.
Software and a larger set of motors in SHD still has it as the “klunker” that it is and will be.
Besides, Toyota designs things so that when you have to fix it, you have to pay a far, far higher cost for the parts for everything proprietary. But, GM allows competition for us to have better and better parts costs.
And, Mr. Toyoda knows all this and is truly being honest about it in the article above.
Dan.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Actually the future of EV goes more along these lines.
First, hybrids like the Prius and Volt will be discontinued as neither are as efficient as full electrics. The long term sustaining viable electric cars will all have tiny electric motors at each drive wheel (including beyond 4 wheels, like trucks) and each wheel will be controlled by a central computer for maximum efficiency and safety. These EVs will drive like they are on rails. The sad part of this prediction is that GM will not be the dominant player when these take over. Sorry GM but you just weren’t nimble enough to adjust to fast changing consumer demands.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Time will reveal all to those who can wait.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Statik,
Which topic of the Captain’s. The “fukin moderation” or the “GM Toyota news”?
I just could not help myself. I had to ask even though I knew you were talking about the ………………………………….
June 29th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
The difference is that the Volt Genset runs at set optimized speeds which is MUCH more efficent that running the Prius engine faster and slower.
Ironically the Voltec drive should be simpler and easier to optimize than the very complicated HSD transmission.
There are a lot of whizzy bits in a HSD transmission, on the drive side of Voltec there is a motor, differental and shafts to the wheels. Yes the generator is in the same housing but is only connected by the nature of being housed in the same casting. Once in production I would expect that the Voltec drivetrain will be very cost effective.
The main cost difference is pretty clearly in the battery pack because of the much simpler Voltec design I expect the driveline to cost less once in production.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Prius rulez. Woot.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
I have to highly disagree here.
The Volt does not operate at one RPM but in “several sweet spots”. This negates the argument because…
“several sweet spots” = “Variable Speed”
The Prius itself has a battery and an ICE. We all know that.
Now help me understand more on the Prius here. Where does the electricity come from to charge the battery pack? Is there a generator somewhere in the car connected to the ICE? It can’t be from just brake regen can it? If there is a generator somewhere, then by definitaion of a “Series Hybrid”, doesn’t it make the Prius a “Series Hybrid” if it generates it’s own electricity to charge the battery? If it can, can’t they just put a bigger generator in for a stronger assist?
Anyone know? How bout you john10?
The 2010 Prius does have an EV mode so yes it can go full EV. The third party mod’s to open the range and speed to EV mode will be rather difficult for a consumer but it should be a walk in the park for Toyo engineers.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Assuming battery tech gets to where it needs to be AND hub motors loose a LOT of weight you may have a point.
But that is several years down the road.
Every current in wheel motor design I have seen works well in a heavy truck where weight is not an issue.
The issue is unsprung weight (the combined mass of everything that goes up and down when the car hits a bump, the wheel, tire, lug nuts, bearings, upright, brake assembly, etc) if the unsprung weight is too high the cars handling is adversely affected.
In time you may well be right, but expecting GM to time travel is maybe demanding a wee bit more than is reasonable.
I don’t think anyone here thinks that Voltec or HSD are the end all, but they are what is real now.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
U.R. Kidding right ?
Danica is the most popular indy car driver in history. She has only won one race so far but her popularity is unmatched in the country. Rumor has it she will bolt to Formula 1 circuit in 2010 so she can dominate the World (not just USA). She is 100 pounds of pure dynamite. Rumor also that she may become the national spokesman for the Chevy Volt. Go Danica !
June 29th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Akio Toyoda Reply: said “I leave you today with the wise words of Soichiro Honda who once said, “Success is 99 percent failure”.”
Then GM must be doing really well!
June 29th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
The difference is simple my friend. The engine speed in a Prius is tied to the speed of the car, with Voltec it is not.
June 29th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Assuming there is a Formula 1.
Thats not a certainty.
June 29th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
The engine speed in the Volt is dependent on the drain of electricity which in turn is in direct correlation of where the “sweet spot” is set in rpm as you are driving which of course also correlates to your speed of the car. That implies the Volt’s ICE operating range is not fixed but in fact it IS: “several sweet spots” = “Variable Speed”. That is fact and makes it simple.
June 29th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Plenty of Chevy drivers feel the same way. Hell will freeze over and the devils will ice skate before I buy a Toyota.
When we export all of our jobs to Japan, Korea, China, Malyasia, Germany, Poland, Italy, et al, your kids will be flipping burgers for a living. If they can find a job at all.
June 29th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
I also don’t think it was a gamble; well not a big one at least. Toyota had no choice but to compete with the perceived coming of the EV1 which was an all electric vehicle, and they would have known by their own experience Electric cars where very expensive. The Prius made perfect sense as it did not give up on range, merely integrating a battery and electric motor to assist.
The only risk was the technology itself lacking the acceleration and power of conventional cars; but really this is more of a problem in the US than anywhere else. Most of the world is not as fixated with high power machines as the US is, probably in part due to cheap gas in the US (most countries have heavy taxes on petrol).
June 29th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Still GM want a badged Prius and HSD
http://www.autoblog.com/2009/06/29/report-gm-execs-to-meet-with-toyota-regarding-hybrid-sharing/
June 29th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Are there any Prius owners out there that can confirm where the Prius get’s it’s electricity to charge the NiMh battery pack? I am assuming there is a generator of sort because it is not a Plugin.
I do not know much of the Prius other than it is claimed to be a “Parallel Hybrid”.
Thanks
June 29th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
From the Alternator then a “Buck Boost” to get up to voltage then to the batteries?
That’s my SWAG.
June 29th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Toyota Prius’s current production numbers are after 15 ancient-technology years.
Your statement for Voltec production in 18 months into the future in comparison to Prius’s 15 years of marketing past is not valid.
Fifteen years from now, when EREV and BEV’s technologies (by then) engulf all personal transportation, no-one will remember your invalid statements comparing a15 year Prius marketing buildup to the new future transition of true electric motoring via EREV.
Prius is not energized by electricity, It is 100% energized by gasoline.
Their plug in program for HSD would have already been here if it were feasible to do that. They would have already sprung it into the market. (I would be glad and impressed greatly if they really do that soon, even if it is before Voltec.)
Stating how your “tax contribution” matters is not valid either, because it is money you owe, not charity. Nor is your concept of charity valid either as an apparent antithesis against the National Will to preserve all manner of jobs, via GM.
Loans to GM are nothing other than a highly-controlled and very HIGHLY SECURED set of loans,
Anyone’s statements saying “my” taxes[sic] (OWING) or anyone else’s tax debt “owning”, and saying it is a “contribution” is patently FALSE HERE.
(Rush LImbaugh started that “my taxes” bull, and he is full of it).
In Japan, Toyota is
***********
GIVEN
**********
OBSCENE quantities of money in the form of, what, $15,000 dollars equivalent in rebates to buyers there.
If GM got anything like that, you would have a cow.
Rush Limbaugh would have a cow. From how he sounds, you’d think he does have a cow every minute, but I’d bet he laughs at his listeners all the way to the bank with that 80 million bucks a year.
Someone astonished me one day when he (not Limbaugh) said:
“Time to cast false pearls to real swine”. Even though Limbaugh likely never said that or thought that [sic], that is the level of contempt Limbaugh has for anything that is in opposition to his radio scream show, and, I’d also bet that he’d turn on you in a second if you ever opposed anything his infallible emminence says.
GM is doing just about everything with these SECURED LOANS in the most industrious manner which is outstandingly impressive.
You should be on your own countries’ side in all this, and, demand that GM get FAR MORE help from our Federal Agencies in order to advance American technological leadership far ahead, worldwide, once again.
Toyota gets this OBSCENE LEVELS OF CASH daily with every car they sell. So the comparison of what Toyota Motors is able to do over the last 15 years, to what GM is now doing for the planet in the next 17 months is not only invalid, it is a fraud, and I RESPECTFULLY ASK that people to stop doing it.
Dan Petit.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
I think you have understated the technology in the VOLT, actually by a long way. this not a space craft (I would not say a “moon shot” either), but its not just throwing peices together either .
To be sure, BYD have also produced an electric car with a generator, but it should be known the “generator” in the BYD design does actually help propel the vehicle. It is not a 100% electric driven car – once you get to a set speed, the engine kicks in. Moreover, the electric range is 60 miles, if you travel at 50km per hour and to do this it uses a deep cycle battery – using about 16kw to get the 60 miles. On top of this, both the electric motor and engine are fairly audible when running. You will not find the sophistication of the electronics and software running same inside either.
BDY have not created a car yet comparable with the Volt. Why? Although the actual mechanics behind the Volt are fairly straight forward, the planning and design orchestrated in the drive train and the driving experience requires a lot of work to get the results they have. They did not just throw some pieces together. This is illustrated when using the BYD example, which is actually a dual drive mode electric car. BYD are working on a new car which they hope will compare, but this is still in development and will take time.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
As posted above, BYD have produced an electric car with a generator, but the “generator” in the BYD design assists in propelling the vehicle. It is not a 100% electric driven car – once you get to a set speed, the engine kicks in. Moreover, the electric range is 60 miles, if you travel at 50km per hour and to do this it uses a deep cycle battery – using about 16kw to get the 60 miles. On top of this, both the electric motor and engine are fairly audible when running. You will not find the sophistication of the electronics and software running same inside either.
Will the F6DM be any better? We will not know until it is released, but it would need to radically change its design to do so.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
I remember 396 SS Chevrolets. I learned to drive on a ‘67 Camaro. Sadly, not an SS. Although, if it had been, I’d probably be dead.
As for Chevy being humble, Toyota is Toyota’s value line, too. A Prius isn’t a Lexus. If you think a Chevy is a more humble vehicle than a Toyota, GM has a huuuuge image problem.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Hi SeriesParallel, the Hybrid Synergy Drive contains two motor/generators, dubbed MG1 and MG2. Yes, the size or power rating can be increased or decreased within the design envelope, for example in 2010, Toyota slightly increased the power rating. The engine is not directly connected to the wheels, but can drive the wheels mechanically through the HSD gears. In EV mode, one of the MG sets spins backwards, allowing the engine to be at rest (zero rpm) while the other MG set drives the wheels using power from the battery. So if you increase the size of the battery, say from 1.3 kWh to 6 kWh, and increase the power rating of the MG set used to drive the wheels in EV mode, the Prius indeed operates like an electric car.
On the other hand, the ICE can drive the MG set and generate power to recharge the battery.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
Little bit of a thread sidetrack, but we had a whole thread on it before entitled: GM and Toyota, what will be?
http://gm-volt.com/2009/06/21/gm-and-toyota-what-will-be/
—————-
Lyle asked this question (to)Troy Clarke, who is GM’s VP of North America:
:
What are some possible options under consideration for GM’s involvement in NUMMI, and is GM considering licensing the synergy drive hybrid system from Toyota?
Lyle, With regard to Nummi we are still in discussions with Toyota on the JV and potential products.
————
I responded as follows: “With regards to NUMMI, I think GM takes this opportunity to get the heck out of Dodge…and can use the bankruptcy proceeding to leave Toyota holding the bag on this one.
So my 2p/guess on what is going to happen: GM is out totally, and will use bankruptcy as its cover to get out of the joint partnership. GM goes elsewhere, and sucks up compensation money/tax breaks from another state. Toyota is likely going to scrap the whole thing when GM rolls out….and the reason we aren’t hearing any plans right now, is that they have nothing good to say. So why ’spook’ the herd?”
===============
Todays news out of GM officially:
“As part of its long-term viability plan, General Motors has decided that its ownership stake in the New United Motor Manufacturing Incorporated (NUMMI) joint venture with Toyotawill not be a part of the ‘New GM’. After extensive analysis, GM and Toyota could not reach an agreement on a future product plan that made sense for all parties. Accordingly,NUMMI will end production of vehicles for GM in August, and there are no future GM vehicles planned for the joint venture at this time.Given that, GM believes it is in the best interest of the ‘New GM’ and its stakeholders that we placeour ownership interest in NUMMI in ‘Old GM’. We have enjoyed a very positive and beneficial partnership with Toyota for the past 25 years, and we remain open tofuture opportunities of mutual interest.”
http://media.gm.com/servlet/GatewayServlet?target=http://image.emerald.gm.com/gmnews/viewmonthlyreleasedetail.do?domain=3&docid=55300
/quelle fricken surprise
June 29th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
Yawn…….Droll ……..Troll!!!
June 29th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
In theory :
For East :
The ICE engine is only 37% efficient and in a normal drive scenario it is only 20%
In a series config, any engine with a higher efficiency can be used because of the constant load on the ICE part. So this config will be able to extract the max efficiency from the ICE.
There are engine configs which are around 80% efficient. Theoratically we can use those engines in the series config. So mpg will be very high.
As electricity, we think we will have a better control and we can use software to control it.
There are losses when you convert one form of energy to other. so chemical ->mech -> electric -> mech. so 3 points of losses. expectation is we increase ICE part efficiency drastically that we say this is a winner.
East wants a car which is capable of 100mpg.
For west:
theory is battery technologies will be advanced in coming years and we will have $2000 for an energy storing device which can store around 64 kwh ( expected translation of 500+miles ) and charge 80% in 2 minutes. So we will again drive Big cars/Trucks with lot of power gas free
West wants the same old big trucks and cars which is cheap to run ( like when gas was cheap – because they have good infrastructure and they like to drive a lot ,tow etc).
Volt is is a Hybrid of 2 Theories in its initial form at a place where gas is not soo high priced and batteries are going to be advanced (still high price).
Now practical side
Volt uses Cruze engine and again not on constant speed. Apart from there there is extra battery weight in extended mode. So i am sure nobody here has an idea on efficiency of that engine.
I think Volt will split to 2 products in future :
As GM America will be focused on America the Battery technology ( they will optimize the EV part ) and transform to be full EVs.
GM Dewoo or GM China will optimize the ICE part and make series hybrids.
Lets look how execution goes.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
OK, I was wrong on that. See Van’s reply in post 46…
June 29th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
So in that respect, the Prius in fact DOES generate it’s own electricity for drive purposes? Right?
So the Prius is actually a “Series/Parallel” in the sense it generates it’s own electricity and store for drive purposes but can indirectly transfer physical ICE torque via the “HSD gears”.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
I just noticed this link over at TAC (points to them), it is a old EV1 commercial that never aired…and thought the ending website link was interesting. Go ahead…type it into your browser and see what pops up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5TLUIU5KFI
/I know the more things change, the more they stay the same…but really?
June 29th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
@SeriesParallel
That’s an interesting conclusion.
Is he right? Is that how the Prius works. I myself now jack about the Prius so I’m relying on you guys here…..
lol
June 29th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Prius sales this year are down something like 40%. I would be worried at Toyota.
Also, I have a gut feeling that the Volt is going to do better than 40 miles. GM may be holding back on the success of the batteries.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
You are making the assumption that the Volt is the perfect solution (when even father Lutz admits it is not) and that if someone fails to implement an aspect of the Volt it is an automatic failure.
I new this kid in school who ate used gum off the ground. Everyone else bought theirs at the store. By prevailing GM-Volt logic the more people that buy the gum at the store the more evidence that eating used gum in the dirt is superior.
Having the ability for the ICE to drive the wheels is in some ways an improvement over the Volt design. But in the end it is a design choice, and it is strange indeed that after all BYD is done that you are going to somehow pretend that the differences between the F3DM and the Volt are that significant.
I will bet that the Volt isn’t going to be quiet when the ICE is running… and even if it is do you really think that sound deadening is a major example of the technology that non-but-GM may master?
June 29th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
I’m sure you’re right Tom about the Prius being a better deal. But I want an electric car and a Prius isn’t an electric car.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
When I’ve read the DIY forums it seems that the guy does the EV conversion in his garage over a weekend and then spends the rest of his life trying to get the battery sorted. I’m only half kidding about that, the battery seems to be a big problem. In this regard, Tesla has found that its air cooled battery pack presents its own set of problems.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
It’s not as simple as a larger battery pack and some software. The study cited above more or less demonstrates this. The motor wouldn’t have been large enough. Additionally the planetary gearing for the HSD is designed for low rather than higher speeds.
You’d really want to replace the battery, the software, the motor, the gearing, and the rest of the electronics. And even then the performance wouldn’t be as good as that of a serial hybrid’s.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
…wait longer, times they are a changin’ (like on wednesday when everyone reports June 2009 sales numbers)
/I’ve got a Hamilton that says the Prius ends the year up
June 29th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
I thought the same thing dano. I think GM will be promising X, and delivering X plus.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
I disagree. A large (great majority IMO) segment of the Prius market are consumers that want a sensible car that gets significantly better gas mileage. Better yet for these buyers will be no gas mileage or very little gas usage at all which many drivers will see and even those that drive a lot of miles will use significantly less gas while maximizing their AER benefit. With the Volt they get this along with better performance, a quieter ride, a smoother ride, and much better styling (IMO). The Prius advantages will be price and seating capacity. They will be left with the buyers that can afford to pay the Prius premium but not the extra upfront battery cost of the Volt and the buyers the require 5 seats. Ohh…and the buyers that want and are willing to pay upfront for fuel economy but refuse to buy from GM or buy American. Remember, those that wanted the cheapest MSRP aren’t buying the Prius either.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Stay classy
June 29th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
Sounds like you have first hand exposure to BYD’s car. Is this the case? Can you provide some more detail about sales so far, warranty, battery chemistry, performance, etc? I am interested to here more of their progress.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
I can’t agree with this. Although I am a big proponent of GM’s Voltec technology and are very happy that they have been relatively open with the Volt’s development, the certainly have not told all (nor should they). They certainly could have safely divulged some additional non-sensity technical details but overall I’m fine with GM’s openness about they Volt. They don’t do this with most of their development projects, however. This is pretty similar to most other auto manufacturers, but I hope GM has learned there can be value with this more open process. Value that goes beyond the green halo, superficial buzz marketing that they have historically been so enamored with. Hopefully they can see consumer becoming engaged and vested in their product while it is being developed. Hopefully they see the value and benefit to real time public feedback. If they intelligently digest this process it could become even more instrumental in their future succcess than the Volt itself.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
Autoblog has a ditty on the Volt up if anyone cares to have a ‘looksie’:
(It may also be nominated for most ‘obvious post of the week,’ but w/e)
————————-
“GM Volt to be sportier alternative to Prius and Insight”
Now that the Chevrolet Volt has progressed to the point where vehicles with production-looking bodywork are running around the automaker’s testing grounds in Warren, Michigan, the time has come for the crew to begin ironing out details like the ride height and spring rates that will directly affect the car’s ride and handling.
Regarding these points, chief engineer Andrew Farah has some interesting things to say about the Volt and the way GM will position it against its competitors. For instance, Farah notes (in reference to the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight), “Our chassis is much more sporty than either of the other vehicles.”
Farah also comments on a couple of changes to the car’s exterior design that eagle-eyed parties had noticed, such as the relocation of the plug from the front fender to under a flap in the traditional location for a gas cap. Other changes, though, such as the headlamps and taillamps may merely be present because the Volt is still early in its development cycle and there are some pre-production bits that aren’t yet necessary for testing purposes.
Spy photographers take note: Farah also says the car is set to undergo some hot-weather endurance testing out west this summer.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/06/29/gm-volt-to-be-sportier-alternative-to-prius-and-insight/
June 29th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
Japan could go become a full blown nuclear power in less than two months and beat the snot out the inferior Koreans and Chinese. They may have to teach those folks another history lesson. I would not want an angry Japan as my neighbor that is for sure.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
Dang, I can’t find anything to disagree with here.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
The Volt is a Hybrid not a full electric. Another Doofus on the loose here.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
Two years ago, I went on a scanning test drive of a 2006 Prius with the Hymotion Lithium Ion Nano Phosphate conversion pack containing the 26 MM format cells (600) and resident electronics.
The Genisys Scan System had Toyota Factory Access authorization to the Prius Processors. All of them.
(This is how I accumulated the PID, parameter ID’s, or datastreams, from the original pack still remaining in the Prius, which I previously described 5 or so days back.)
My friend at Austin Energy drove it while I scanned all systems, and, transferred the datum onto a jump drive for later analysis.
While the maximum speed achieved was 35 mph on a flat road, when, after 35 mph the ICE cut on and lurched the vehicle forward with a somewhat startling jolt.
In addition, when going at lower speeds, say, 25 mph or so, and, needing to maintain speed going up a hill, the ICE would again cut on with a fairly loud and unexpected high RPM speed.
It wasn’t what I would call refined at all. Not even at a “Beta” level of refinement, although it did work in electric mode much of the time, and certainly represented a highly respectable beginning for electric motoring. But I certainly and completely understand why Mr. Toyoda says that this would not be the way his company would proceed in the near or interim future.
Would I spend 10,000 bucks on such a conversion? Heck no.
Do I respect the progress that Hymotion brings to the table. Absolutely Yes.
Electrification of a Prius to plug-in is going to take radical factory redesigns if it is going to be consumer acceptable.
So I am impressed greatly as to Mr. Toyoda’s honesty and directness regarding his statement that Toyota is going to remain where it currently is technologically.
Bloomberg has a story today describing NUMMI as producing 76% of its output for Toyota badges, and the remaining for GM’s Vibe.
GM only owned 50% of the plant. The story describes Toyota upper management as stating that Toyota is in extreme financial difficulty. This would be another reason why Toyota must have no further financial risk for the entrenched product designs currently produced. Mr. Toyoda is just being a responsible executive by stating the facts. No EREV from Toyota. No BEV from Toyota.
The datum accumulated from the 2006 Hymotion-converted Prius with the Genisys (Next Generation Information System), clearly suggests that there ought to be extensive demonstrations of the final aftermarket product conversion for the consumer before that customer gives the “green light” to spend 10,000 bucks in order to know what they are getting into. Voided warranties included however.
Dan.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Dan, the tinfoil hat is slipping.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Yes 120 mile BEV plus well designed genset trailer that can double as a home backup generator and I’m done. Two of those plus one trailer would be a fantastic solution for my household.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Very high efficiency, but note the Volts motor is 110kw continuous (we think) output.. almost twice the power, so hopefully it will not weigh twice as much.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
“I new this kid in school who ate used gum off the ground. Everyone else bought theirs at the store. By prevailing GM-Volt logic the more people that buy the gum at the store the more evidence that eating used gum in the dirt is superior.”
WTF? eating used gum off the ground? Are serious. I cannot follow your logic at all. How about if the earth rotates, you get brown potatoes… Don’t take this personally, but where the heck is the link in logic that if you buy gum at the store eating gum off the ground is more superior? Wouldn’t it point to buying gum being more the norm?
The Volt in my humble opinion is probably not the best solution, we are years off the best solution; not sure why you implied I thought it was “the best solution”, i don’t recall saying that, I was commenting on the “ease of design” to make such a car.
But i will adress the rest of your post – the 2 cars are very different. You simply have to look at the drive chain. the Volt never uses the generator to actually run the car. It uses electricity 100% of the time. Using electricity 100% is the major step forward as it is more efficient and removes dependence on fossil fuels. This is a major leap forward. It’s no “moon shot”, but it’s a major set forward non-the-less. Using the engine to move the wheels in tandem with the electric motor is nice, but the dependence on petrol is just a bit more evident.
The deadening of sound is not the only aspect you need to consider. There are many points to a vehicles design. Each of these points from what has been disclosed has been well thought-out. From the display of information, programming, comfort, handling, noise, cabin area, drive chain, look, safety features, etc… These are all part of the overall package. Why do you think the F3DM can’t be taken to the US in its current form? Because it would not pass the safety requirements, these problems have not been addressed.
You simply seem to think the Volt was easy to thrown together with BDY producing a similar product (both would have their design hurdles), but they are very different. At the end of the day, if you think BYD’s F3DM is just as good as a Volt and no less complicated in any of its design aspects, this is your choice. Personally, from what i have seen of the Volt and the F3DM, these cars are in a different class. So, from an overall view point, I can honestly see the Volt is a much more thought out car than the F3DM. IMHO, There is simply no comparison.
I am eager to see how the F6 turns out like though.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
From my perspectives over the last two years regarding all this: The Hymotion Pack did what it was designed to do within the engineering tolerances of those two 2006 converted Prius Vehicles.
These 2006 Prius test vehicles were set up as a feasibility study conducted by Austin Energy, where the goal was to study the feasibility to possibly utilize the extra Wind Generation Capacity which Austin Energy has overnight, when the West Texas Winds generate the highest amount of energy.
The feasibility study actually benefited GM in the Final Outcome.
The A123 Chemistry (to be carried forward in Voltec, I believe) contained within the 26mm format cells within the Hymotion pack ultimately paved the way for further commitments from the State of Texas, (via the Public Utility Commission), to contract for more transmission lines into the larger Texas Cities to bring in more Wind Energy, a great portion of which is to recharge BEV’s and EREV’s, in my technical opinion and perspectives.
Dan.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
Sorry, but my equation would be more like promise X, and deliver (X – unknown). One equation, one unknown, who wants to solve this one? No calculus involved!
GM needs to prove that they have REALLY changed, before I start changing the laws of mathematics.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Sorry, I have not had first had exposure, but a person i met whilst in GuangZhou last has. They liked the idea, but not the implementation.
1) it was “not practical” in China as very few people have a garage. Fleets work, but again, there is no charging stations out the front of government work places.
2) The quality was lacking.
3) They did not want to have chagre the battery for 9 hours, or to change the battery after 5 years (it’s a deep cycle battery).
The car has been on sale for some time now, but their reviews are far and few between. i saw a video review from a journalist that visited BYD, and he made pretty much the same comments as the above (bar point 3). even the CEO said the same things, but the F3 was meant to be a lead up to the F6 – a test vehicle if you will.
Why do you think as of April this year, they had only sold 80 units (which I think were actually sold in December of last year)? this was not for lack of trying. Apparently the battery technology is having a bit of trouble too (with a high proportion of defective batteries). (http://www.chinacartimes.com/2009/04/14/byd-f3dm-sales-officially-poor/)
This is why i find it rather ridiculous to say BYD have made a car just like the volt; and anyone should be able to do it in next to no time. You don’t just upgrade a car with a new drive train, you have to build the car around the drive train. There is a lot of thought and design that goes into this process.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
Make that one 120 miles and one 80 mile BEV plus one genset trailer.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
How about an AER lottery. I bet ten bucks that the Volt driven on a relatively flat trip will go 44 miles before the Genset cuts on.
“Actual Average Electric Range” beyond published specs.
The exact number will win everyone’s ten bucks.
Fractions of the last mile count. Maybe even to the hundreths of that last mile, if there would be lots of people in the lottery.
There would have to be an objective judge though.
How about Lyle?
June 29th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
That ratio actually seems low to me. I think LauraM multiple registered to skew the stats
June 29th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
“There is going to be an unpresidented variance in economy depending on usage. ”
This is sooo true. I don’t think a lot of people, even on this site, truely understand this as evidenced by the incescent demand for “real world” mpg. What does that mean actually? Everything to a very small set of people since “real world” will vary so greatly. People will have to take the EPA rated data and do some math for their own driving to come up with a reasonable approximation of what their own real world data will be.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
People will pay more for BAS+ but GM has to understand that it is not really an environmental green value proposition since there are and will be better environmental alternatives, but rather it is as much a money green value proposition. The $ value has to be there in the gas savings. Perhaps they need to market, or help create an industry standard, to market stop-n-go traffic fuel economy. That or create a programs that the buyer can input some driving information and create customized realistic fuel consumption data.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
Huh?
Tesla’s pack is glycol (liquid) cooled. Their issue is they have shorter lived (relative to the Volt’s), higher specific energy LiCo cells. Of course, they cost a lot less too.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
No respect. Why does Carcus1 get 12 thumbs up for the link and you get 2 down thanking him. Must fire your PR manager.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
Shall do so. Thank you. The Lads say the same in their barky way.–Higgins
June 29th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
That picture of Toyoda has been up there all day, and not one “pink tie” comment. Course, . . . it’s kind of hard . . to notice when your eye gets drawn over to the “after” butt picture.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
Or perhaps you were implying that I had strayed from, ah, being classy? My fellow chaps who are still moldering in the ground would beg to differ. Damn fine bridge we built however.
The Lads are still barking.—-Higgins
June 29th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
Prius is still the ugliest car built, unless you count the Pontiac Aztec. my two cents are in…
June 30th, 2009 at 3:26 am
lol, perfected fission power plants within a decade? What are you smoking? lol. Thorium? Breeders? lol. You have no clue what you are talking about. No way will we have perfected power plants anytime soon.
Oh, what is perfected? No nuclear waste? Low cost of operation? Do not use non-renewable fuel? Nuclear power – RIP
June 30th, 2009 at 6:07 am
“Deep Cycle”? Do you mean lead acid deap cycle? If so 5 yrs is generous for hot climates. They’ll be lucky to get more than 3 where it is hot much of the year.
I agree with you completely regarding the “engineering” and time to develop a good EREV solution. This is why BYD’s claims have always seemed suspect to me but the information about their product has been lacking. BEV’s are much simpler and easier to produce but even they require design from the ground up to be done properly.
June 30th, 2009 at 6:51 am
You could be right…she is just about the only poster I can think of, off the top of my head.
June 30th, 2009 at 6:54 am
It is my devoted negative comment unibombers. I start all my comments at least 3 in the hole, hehe.
Good/bad, who cares…at least I know someone out there is actually reading them.
(=
June 30th, 2009 at 7:14 am
Someone on this post mention it was a big gamble for Toyota to build the Prius. Yes, I agree with that statement, but building the Volt is a much bigger gamble. Why? The Prius was well tested in Japan before it got shipped to the US. If anything was wrong with the Prius at that stage, it was corrected before shipping to the US. However, if GM has a problem with the Volt, the vultures media will come hard on them. We in the US are our own worst enemy. Some have compared GM with Hitler and the criticism goes on and on. Another example of unfair criticism is with the Hummer. Most people don’t know the 2009 Toyota Land Cruiser Wagon 4WD( gets worse gas mileage than the 2009 Hummer H3 4WD and yet I never hear any negatives about it.
City Highway Combined
2009 Hummer H3 4WD 14 18 16
2009 Toyota Land Cruiser 4WD
13 18 15
Just comparing an apple for an apple. Do you get my drift?
June 30th, 2009 at 9:38 am
Thank you Xiaowei1, for providing this information on the BYD.