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NUMMI No More: Has GM Said No-Thanks to GM-Branded Prius?

June 29th, 2009 | Posted in: Financial, Hybrid

Since 1984 GM has had a relationship with Toyota at the New United Motor Manufacturing Incorporated (NUMMI) joint-venture plant in California, where the Pontiac Vibe, twin of the Toyota Matrix, has been built. GM’s bankruptcy process and the shedding of the Pontiac brand had made GM’s future role in that plant uncertain.

Bloomberg reports that Toyota’s new President Aiko and GM’s CEO Fritz Henderson are to have a meeting in August to discuss the next step. Citing persons familiar with the plan, the report said Toyota planned to offer GM the opportunity to build a GM-branded version of the Prius at NUMMI, speculating that such a move would motivate GM, who is half owner, to keep the plant open.

On Monday, however, GM issued a statement indicating it is leaving NUMMI behind as part of the 363 sale to stay with the old GM.

GM spokesperson Tom Pyden told GM-Volt.com that GM was not “able to reach an agreement with Toyota on potential future product at NUMMI.” He noted this decision was made by GM North American President Troy Clarke. “We are not in current discussions with Toyota on licensing their synergy drive,” Clarke told GM-Volt.com last week. “I would point out that we are working like crazy on our own hybrid technology.”

“We were also at a point in the 363 sale process whereby we needed to designate NUMMI – like all other assets and contracts of GM – as either ‘New GM’ or ‘Old GM’,” said Pyden. “Without an agreement on a potential future product, we went with the ‘Old GM’ designation regarding our ownership interest.”

Toyota spokesperson Bill Kwong denied the possibility Toyota was offering to build the Prius at NUMMI with GM. He told GM-Volt.com “Toyota currently has no interest in building the Prius at NUMMI.” He denied knowledge of any such offer noting “they are just rumors.”

Despite NUMMI being cast aside from the new GM, the company still hasn’t ruled out future collaborations. “We have enjoyed a very positive and beneficial partnership with Toyota for the past 25 years, and we remain open to future opportunities of mutual interest,” says an official GM statement.

Thus it remains unclear if Toyota secretly offered a GM-branded Prius to GM in exchange for continuing the joint venture at NUMMI, or will still offer such an option in the future.

So is the rumor of a GM-branded Prius finally dead?

“Yes,” says GM spokesperson Pat Morrisey. “That puts the rumor to rest.”

I hope so, but if not enjoy the 2011 Buick Irony pictured above.

Source (Bloomberg) and (GM)

Posted by: Lyle

184 Responses to “NUMMI No More: Has GM Said No-Thanks to GM-Branded Prius?”

+1 statik Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:03 pm

I can’t say this is a surprising development that GM has backed out of NUMMI under the cover of bankruptcy.

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-1 JEC Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:03 pm

I refuse to say it!

Looks like GM will be going it alone. Good luck with that…

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+7 statik Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:12 pm

We had a thread on this all of 8 days ago, where Lyle asked this question of Troy Clarke, who is GM’s VP of North America:

What are some possible options under consideration for GM’s involvement in N.U.M.M.I, and is GM considering licensing the hybrid system from Toyota?

Lyle, With regard to Nummi we are still in discussions with Toyota on the JV and potential products.

http://gm-volt.com/2009/06/21/gm-and-toyota-what-will-be/
===============================

I’d like to add I commented at the time:

“With regards to NUMMI, I think GM takes this opportunity to get the heck out of Dodge…and can use the bankruptcy proceeding to leave Toyota holding the bag on this one. NUMMI hasn’t been exactly what they envisioned it would be, at least not as it stands now…

Also for GM directly, why bring another line into that facility when they can potentially soak up hundreds of millions from local governments to ‘bring jobs’ to a new state (I believe they are currently courting Tennessee, Wisconsin and of course…Michigan)

Also for GM directly, why bring another line into that facility when they can potentially soak up hundreds of millions from local governments to ‘bring jobs’ to a new state (I believe they are currently courting Tennessee, Wisconsin and of course…Michigan)
=========================

So here we are a week later, and GM is out of NUMMI…using bankruptcy and ‘old GM’ as the weopon of choice.

…and low and behold they got 779 million dollars in incentives from the Michigan Economic Growth Authority to, “save some 1,200 jobs at Orion and another 200 at nearby Pontiac Stamping” rather than get nothing to put something in NUMMI.

http://www.freep.com/article/20090626/BUSINESS01/90626050/1210/BUSINESS/GM+chose+Orion+facility+for+tax+perks++stamping+plant

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+1 statik Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:15 pm

Here is GM’s official press release on NUMMI:

GM Media Statement Regarding GM’s Ownership Stake in NUMMI
(Attributable to Troy Clarke, president, GM North America)

“As part of its long-term viability plan, General Motors has decided that its ownership stake in the New United Motor Manufacturing Incorporated (NUMMI) joint venture with Toyotawill not be a part of the ‘New GM’. After extensive analysis, GM and Toyota could not reach an agreement on a future product plan that made sense for all parties. Accordingly,NUMMI will end production of vehicles for GM in August, and there are no future GM vehicles planned for the joint venture at this time.Given that, GM believes it is in the best interest of the ‘New GM’ and its stakeholders that we placeour ownership interest in NUMMI in ‘Old GM’. We have enjoyed a very positive and beneficial partnership with Toyota for the past 25 years, and we remain open tofuture opportunities of mutual interest.”

http://media.gm.com/servlet/GatewayServlet?target=http://image.emerald.gm.com/gmnews/viewmonthlyreleasedetail.do?domain=3&docid=55300

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+4 Vincent Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:20 pm

Bravo….see ya Toyota in the rear view mirror of the Volt baby.
Put that on your sushi and eat it pal.

Can we get a replay of the classic line after Pearl Harbor when the Japanese commander of the ship said in regards to the United States “I fear we have woken a sleeping giant”

Sweet!

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+3 BillR Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:27 pm

That picture above looks just like a Prissy, only with higher quality.

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+1 carcus1 Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:37 pm

In a way, I think it would be a good thing financially for GM to just pay to use some of Toyota’s technology to try and get some income rolling in from a 40+ mpg HSD hybrid asap.

But then again you can spend some time reading about Ford and Aisin and possible Toyota control of parts and the whole scenario starts to look real complicated [no doubt Ford couldn't get as many Escape hybrids out as they wanted over the past several years -- many rumors say it was Asian's reluctance to supply parts (Aisin 20% owned by Toyota)].

Maybe GM doesn’t need any more complications at this point.

This end of the business is too complicated for me.

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-10 Charlie H. Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:41 pm

(click to show comment)

Although the Volt is not yet available for sale, if all goes according to plan, GM will make about 10-12K Volts by the end of 2011.

This year, Toyota is building 50K Prius IIIs per month. They are on pace to sell 600K in the next 12 months. They sell them at a profit. The vehicle will also likely be marketed next year with PHEV option (the car is ready, they just swap batteries and add the charge port).

After 2011, GM estimates selling 60K Volts per year through 2014 or so and GM has said that they won’t make any money on the Volt for years.

The Prius is on a 5-year development cycle. In 2015, when GM may be ready to ramp to higher production levels, Toyota will likely introduce the Prius IV.

Who is in whose rear-view mirror?

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Charlie H. Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:50 pm

Here’s an interesting report; info by brand on page 3.

http://www.desrosiers.ca/2007%20Update/Documents%20and%20Reports/2007%20OBS/Trends%20in%20Vehicle%20Longevity.pdf

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+1 Texas Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:57 pm

You mean 50+ mpg?

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ThombDbhomb Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 10:04 pm

Numa Numa

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60og9gwKh1o&feature=PlayList&p=4DC2E814CA4D4559&index=0

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carcus1 Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 10:06 pm

If I were Toyota (or Toyoda), I’d specify in the contract that any licensees couldn’t exceed the Prius’ mpg. That’s just me, though. I’m sure the Japanese lawyers play nicer than that [!]

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+6 Dan Petit Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 10:36 pm

Based on how old the original synergy drive approach is, I think it is a very very wise decision by GM to abandon the past.

NUMMI would just be a drag on the new Voltec energies, approaches, and future outlook.

Leave the proud achievements of the “past” in the past.

The “past” is way too much of a “comfortable present”,

as it is as much an “unacceptable future”.

Synergy Drive is not an acceptable part of the future for the NewGM, from the technical perspective, it seems to me.

VOLTec EREV is the principal acceptable future for the NewGM.

Dan.

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+2 carcus1 Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 11:07 pm

Hurry up GM. Hurry UP! HURRRYYYYY UUUUUUUUUP!!!!!!!!!!!

As Iraq Stabilizes, China Eyes Its Oil Fields
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/30/world/asia/30chinaoil.html?_r=1

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+8 DonC Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:17 am

The Volt is the only real EV being offered by a mainstream manufacturer in the near future. As such it will have a huge following among early adopters, many of whom will ditch their Prius for a vehicle with more interesting tech, a better driving experience, and more green creed. How long it takes for the new order to drift downward is difficult to predict, and in any case it’s very hard to predict sales numbers. However, note that GM has not given 60K as the production numbers through 2014. The line is 10K for 2010, then 60K for 2011, and then “who knows”?

Given the superior tech on the Volt, my guess is that there is a reasonably high probability of the Volt selling at about the same level as the Prius by 2015. Time will tell and I don’t have a crystal ball. But this is a contest that has no real losers. We’re talking about a car that gets 50 mpg or a car that gets 250 mpg. Either one is a great alternative.

BTW your cite to the report below on vehicle longevity is terrific.

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Lurtz Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:18 am

Well, my first new car, and the only American car I’ve ever owned, was a Geo Prizm from NUMMI. It was wonderful.

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-1 Unni Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:46 am

Is my adressbar showing wrong ? Am i in Gm-volt.com or Toyota-prius.com or GM-prius.com

Lyle also seems toxicated by toyota and prius

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-2 omnimoeish Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:02 am

Whether you like it or not, Toyota is able to make 50+mpg no compromises cars (besides the look) at no additional costs, and they do it profitably. They are the team to beat. Even Ford’s insanely complex and expensive Ford Fusion Hybrid can’t even hold a candle to it at $27,000 base price and 39 combined mpg. The Volt still has at least 10 years before it will get down to a $22,000 base price like the Prius now enjoys, until then, whether you like it or not, the Prius is America’s best option for mainstream fuel savings.

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-1 truthguy Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:30 am

I’m not surprised by this development. I always thought this was a strange joint venture to begin with. I’ve actually taken a tour of this facility. What’s ironic is that I’ll bet 3 out of every 4 workers at this plant cast their votes for Obama. So I say this to all those people; Boy this is change you will believe in. But don’t be concerned there will be plenty of green jobs available. Obama and Arnold both promised this.

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+2 MaynardKeenan Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:45 am

The Toyota Prius is a nice car – and version 3 is also sharp looking.

But the Prius has a big disadvantage for many Germans: it is too slow for German Autobahn. It just goes 180kmh (~ 110 mph). I want a car, that goes at least 230 kmh (~ 140 mph). Don’t get me wrong – we aren’t always driving 140mph on the Autobahn. I would say normal travelling speed is 100-110 mph. But there has to be some elbowroom, when there is no traffic, or you when you have to overtake some old ladies it really is a kind of war sometimes on the Autobahn.

I hope the Volt does it better

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+2 Dave K. Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 4:45 am

MK 11,

The Volt is set to top speed at 110 mph. There may be a sport setting or speed chip to go faster. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a motor swap conversion kit as well.

The next five years will be very exciting. With Tesla and Killa Cycle (motorcycle) leading the way to high speed electric travel. I expect GM to follow with SUV, 4WDR and sport EREV as well.

=D~

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+3 Dave G Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 5:01 am

The Prius went on sale in the U.S. in August of 2000. By August of 2001 they had sold around 10,000. Volt sales will be about the same in it’s first year. This is pretty standard for a new vehicle.

The real questions are:
1) How fast will Volt sales ramp up?
2) How fast will Volt prices drop?
3) How many other GM cars will use Voltec?
4) Will another major manufacturer offer an EREV-40?

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Dave G Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 5:07 am

I believe I heard they were going to limit the Volt to 100 mph. The Opel Ampera will probably be a different story…

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BillR Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 5:15 am

Here is more info on NUMMI, and the decisions Toymota now faces.

Toyota Stuck With California Dilemma as GM Ditches Joint Plant

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&tkr=GM%3AUS&sid=auDsKtVQrgto

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+4 hayley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 5:21 am

I wouldn’t call a 0-60 of 10 seconds “no compromises,” not even close.

And the Fusion is in a totally different class, compact sedan vs midsize sedan, with 57 more hp, of course one is going to cost more, which one do you think it is?

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+2 jason M. Hendler Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 5:56 am

You can’t fault Toyota for trying to divert GM from their Voltec track. How many execs have the wisdom to ignore and old bird in the hand for two chicks in the bush?

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+1 FME III Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 6:09 am

To reply to the queston posited at the end of the post: “Is the rumor of a GM-branded Prius finally dead?”

I say, “Hell no.” Someone will drag it up yet again. That’s the convenient thing about rumors. All it takes in one blogger to muse on the issue and it’s back in play.

However, I do believe that GM is wise to end its affiliation with NUMMI. Also, a little Machiavellian — sticking Toyota with an expense it can ill afford.

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koz Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 6:23 am

True dat

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+1 Schmeltz Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 6:46 am

Statik:
You called it man! Nice.

I read on a recent Motor Trend blog written by Angus Mckenzie (I think) about what they would do with the new GM. In regards to the NUMMI plant, they thought GM and Toyota could/should pursue a joint venture on a Tacoma pickup clone for GM produced in that factory. The idea sounds good on paper, but like you said in your previous post, why keep a line going in a factory when you have other states waving money in your face to save/create jobs there?

Personally, I always thought the NUMMI joint venture was an awkward thing. Getting out of the joint venture is a good plan IMO.

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+1 Dan Petit Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 7:13 am

Based on the PIDs, or parameter ID’s resident within the Prius
“Hybrid Battery Subprocessor”, the Prius is, was, and will continue to be, a research vehicle for Toyota Motors.

But that has been going on for Toyota for about 15 years now, and, the suggestion to add a bigger battery to go plug-in may cause Toyota an unacceptably-high business risk, which Toyota has absolutely no intention of accepting.

For all the positive suggestions that Toyota will do anything there, the only thing that would alleviate that unacceptable business risk for Toyota Motors is to attempt to carefully construct a market acceptance for the leasing of that bigger traction battery.

Or, constructing market acceptance for the leasing of the whole car, in order for *you* to buy *them* that 3 years time (payments of which are the lessee’s total loss, and Toyota marketing departments’ total gain).

Toyota customers will not accept leasing. Commercial 3 year leases are not an option either, since high usage rates would be unacceptable to the wear patterns of the larger battery.

Likely, commercial-leased vehicles would be subject to those employees’ indifference to “plug-in” or other responsibilities, and, would just keep on driving a commercially-leased unit until the battery was so dead for so long, that the terms of the lease regarding Toyota Motor responsibilities would be in serious jeopardy to be in default.

Fitness of merchantability would be the issue here,

This is why Toyota will not have any widespread plug- in program with highly significant ***range-impact*** to future merchantability. They would have to compete with GM there, and there they would fail.

“We no got” [EREV] is no surprise when Mr. Toyoda comes right out and says they will remain with SHD,
to his credit,
and,
on behalf of our tired eardrums
regarding hypothetical “bigger battery Prius” totally-imaginary conjecture (anywhere near being AER-competitive to Volt).

When, for years, the public has rested on the marketing laurels of HSD, (until that marketing brainwash was dashed when the extremely high HSD-related repair bills came in),

HSD is just not good enough anymore. We have run out of time and auditory-patience for further imaginary conjecture that it somehow might be.

It is a dead horse that some are still flogging.

Somehow work up your down payment monies for your VOLTec vehicle. *Doing* this is better than saying anything else about anything else.

Dan.

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-4 Charlie H. Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 7:23 am

omnimoeish,

I wouldn’t say the Fusion is insanely complex; isn’t the setup pretty similar to HSD?

On the rest, I agree. Ford has not gotten the costs down like Toyota has.

hayley,

When I was a kid, 0-60 in ten was smoking hot. I’m still perfectly satisfied with it. To get this sort of fuel economy with that level of performance is quite good.

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+5 statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 7:25 am

Well, I don’t necessarily agree on your conclusion/future prognostication on the Volt. I do think your statement of, “…this is a contest that has no real losers” is a good one.

I hate the fact that these two cars are pitted against each other all the time. Right now they are worlds apart, and I think most of us can agree it is going to be a long, long time before they are seriously competing against each other in the same segment (if ever).

Here is my question (just generally speaking):
If the Volt is seriously going ‘head-to-head’ with the Prius, and it is also cost competitive by that time (like we keep hearing about)…what exactly does the rest of the automobile landscape look like? Carpocalypse?

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+1 Joe Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 7:30 am

There’s no way GM would ever build a Prius like car even to replace the Vibe. The media atmosphere would detrimental to GM. The media loves to pick on GM in a negative way. GM has too much pride. Besides, can you imagine all the negative stories being written? “GM succumbs to Toyota’s better technologies” I’m a retired engineer from GM and I know GM has a lot more going technology-wise than Toyota. With GM being rid of many unfair constrictions, I’ll put my money on them for the future. They are a well entrench company in the world and they will get on top again without Toyota help!

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+4 Joe Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 7:39 am

By 2015 if GM can bring down the cost of the battery pack (which it will…that’s why it got in the battery business,again) it’s possible the Volt will easily overtake the Prius in sales.

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+2 Guy Incognito Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 7:39 am

Toyota wants GM to use the California facility to produce a vehicle, the Prius, that is now antiquated & obsolete?

GM should be selling hybrids, serial hybrids, and they should all be plug-ins.

If anything, Toyota should try to sell Prius tech to China.

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+2 statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 7:44 am

“4) Will another major manufacturer offer an EREV-40?” is a interesting question.

With the DoE looking to get another 25 billion to dole out as ‘loans’ (it is crammed inside the monster (1,000+ page) American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009), on top of the 25 billion they are already handing out. One has to assume that ugly step child #2, Chrysler, will have its ‘ENVI’ projected fully funded.

That means the Jeep and the T&C Van (along with the pure BEV sportscar (for 2010apparently) are both likely entrants into the EXACT same market…the 40 mile extended range market (they are promising 3 electric vehicles by calendar year 2012…and these are logically them).

We are going to have some ‘doozies’ of threads once/if Chrysler gets the big check to make a 40 mile range extended Jeep and van…one could argure that they are more practical EV applications…at least the van is (7 passengers, cargo capacity…and a EV application displacing a conventional 20 MPG, rather than 40MPG+ in the Volt’s segment). Sidenote: They have total range spec still at 400 miles.

Chrysler’s electric site:
https://www.chryslergroupllc.com/en/innovation/envi/overview/

Fair disclaimor: How the heck does Chrysler stay solvent long enough to bring them to market? I dunno, lol. (Maybe someone else picks up the line?)

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Joe Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 7:46 am

“4) Will another major manufacturer offer an EREV-40?”

*****************************************************************

The answer to that is yes. GM will be selling their battery packs to other companies. That’s why GM is going back in the battery business. They hold many patents and that will make it hard for other companies to build their own.

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+4 Joe Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 8:01 am

Isn’t it awful for Toyota?? In view of what’s happening to the domestics, I don’t feel sorry for them. Although, it’s too bad about the loss jobs

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john1701a Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 8:06 am

55.1 MPG average as of 2,533 miles.

Where’s the competition?

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Lwesson Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 8:25 am

Carcus 1 You will find it interesting how intense the Red Chinese are in oil exploration. While at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston last year the Chinese were there in goodly numbers. Dressed in sharp business suits, polite and very eager to talk and take pictures. While looking at one of their models of a Chinese offshore rig one fellow was very assertive in talking to me about rigs. How I got water boarded and told secrets I only hazard to guess but I assure you that what they got from me will have their rigs going belly up! Should have talked to my blazing red eyed fiance as she is the marine engineer.

Only the Chinese were so assertive out of hundreds of various booths/expositions. Oh! They failed to show up at the BBQ cookoff. LOL!

As I have said before, there is allot of oil and natural gas still out there and the Chinese will be trying with collective state will and force to become major players.

Regards from the Lads and myself, Higgins

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+1 Tagamet Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 8:31 am

Statik said in part:
“If the Volt is seriously going ‘head-to-head’ with the Prius, and it is also cost competitive by that time (like we keep hearing about)…what exactly does the rest of the automobile landscape look like? Carpocalypse?”

********************************************************************************

It’s not a zero sum game, Statik. We’ll have any number of successes.
Be well,
Tagamet

LJGTVWOTR!!************NPNS!!

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Lwesson Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 8:37 am

YA! You chaps really define Fahrvergnugen and nice tanks I might add! I doubt that the bureauKats of our new Leader will let the Volt do Autobahn type speeds. The Volt’s little ICE generator would be a screaming banshee at those speeds and likely screaming at lower more mundane speeds of 80 mph.

Regards———Higgins

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+7 old man Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 8:43 am

If my Volt only gets 55.1 mpg for the first 2533 miles I will be totally upset because it could only mean that the plug has been cut or is not working. Based on my normal [non trip] driving I should use 5-6 gallons of gas or about 422 mpg.

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+1 Joe Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 8:46 am

Motor Trend would love the continuation of the joint venture because it would create more stories for them.

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+6 David Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 8:47 am

Good riddance Toyota. I think it is obvious that Toyota is worried that the Volt will steal significant sales from the butt ugly Prius.

BTW, has anyone read the Car and Driver article on the Volt (along with the Fisker, MINI E, and Chrysler product)? The Volt got the most ink and made the cover. C&D did not write about how the mule handled or even hinted that they drove the Cruze bodied mule…they made it seems as if they drove an IVer.

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+3 Joe Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 8:50 am

I get the impression that you think it will be tough. If so your forgetting that GM is a much more mature company than Toyota. Now, that GM can compete more fairly, it will give a few lessons to Toyota!

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+3 statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 8:59 am

I was kind of driving at the unlikeliness of the statement, by illustrating the wider consequences that would mean to the market.

As in, how is it possible that the Volt could parallel the Prius in volume and pricing (especially by the 2015 that was earlier referenced), without obliterating the ‘conventional’ car as we know it?

I think it is practically ‘zero sum’ if you are talking about 40 mile AER/50MPG EREVS to market at $22,000 (which is what is being suggested), as compared to still trying to sell efficient/low cost ICE vehicles (which is the bulk of passenger car sales in NA).

That would be a fundamental shift in the type of cars we drive…especially when you are likely talking about a million+ being sold a year to keep pace with Toyota’s HSD. If anything, the Volt and the Prius would only be at the same level for mere moments…they would be ships passing in the night, one rocketing upwards and one dropping (or at least stagnating)

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:07 am

Yeah, the Volt is certainly going to be limited pretty low as well. It certainly isn’t designed with the Autobahn in mind.

I’m pretty sure the Volt doesn’t even have the onboard capacity to go much faster than 100 mph (even if it is internally maxed at 110), let alone140 mph.

Sidenote: I wonder what the electric range would be north of 100 mph? hehe.

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:11 am

I’m feeling lazy, so I’m going to cut and paste what I thought about the plant when GM still hadn’t announced…er, I mean ‘made a decision’ on NUMMI yet:
———–

#12 Statik said:
June 21st, 2009 at 6:33 pm

“If/when GM leaves than I think Toyota would be all to happy to use that as a excuse to walk away themselves. The problem with NUMMI is the high labor costs ie) old school UAW wages. I think Toyota would see GM’s exodus as a mixed blessing. A good opportunity to lose the Tacoma line, and to move the Corolla…

So my 2p/guess on what is going to happen: GM is out totally, and will use bankruptcy as its cover to get out of the joint partnership. GM goes elsewhere, and sucks up compensation money/tax breaks from another state. Toyota is likely going to scrap the whole thing when GM rolls out….and the reason we aren’t hearing any plans right now, is that they have nothing good to say. So why ’spook’ the herd?”
http://gm-volt.com/2009/06/21/gm-and-toyota-what-will-be/

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+1 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:14 am

Buick Irony…. Heh heh… he said irony….

Thanks for the smile Lyle!

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+3 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:17 am

Well said! Exactly the kind of averaged mileage I expect I’ll see as well!

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:18 am

There is none atm…of that there can be no argument. And I doubt there will be any competition of significance for a good number of years into the future.

I have a healthy respect for what Toyota has been able to bring to market NOW in the Prius (although I have never owned one), and what they have been able to price it at…and still make money.

Too often the near future is a ‘magical’ place, where cars of today cannot possibly survive…rarely does this prove true. (Not that it can’t, but have to keep perspective).

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-1 N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:24 am

Now that is a good looking Buick. Don’t you think?

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+1 N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:27 am

Statik, you forgot to say FIRST!! And second and third…..

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+2 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:30 am

Absolutely!

A LOT of us will be seeing “gas mileage” averages in the 150-200 mpg range.
This will not look good for the Prius from the general public’s ‘quick glance’ view point. In other words Pat-Q-Public hears that their friends friend who has a Volt see’s 150 mpg average mileage THAT is the number that will stick in their head. All of a sudden the Prius’ 50 something mpg sounds very ok…

In truth the Prius has done fantastic things for the industry by ‘kicking’ it in the rear!

But if I was was Mr Toyoda I would be concerned to say the least about Voltec drive.

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+3 statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:34 am

I think they can get the price down, but the real question is, by how much?

The first issue (especially when trying to get to any point where volume is significant in relation to the Prius) is that the $7,500 rebate is long gone…meaning they have to get $7,500 in savings out of the Volt to just ‘hold the line’ on pricing to the consumer . (no small feat)

But, to be a contender to the ‘throne’ of the highest selling uber-efficient car (500K+ units), I think the Volt would have to be priced within about 4-5K of the Prius, so your talking 25-26K at most, provided the Prius itself stays priced where it is…and everyone is right that Toyota can’t figure out how to get value out of a plug because Hymotion can’t do it on the last gen aftermarket…which I suspect will be a unfounded assumption.

That is about a $15,000 dollar haircut from the expected starting price for 2011 (40K)…and they also have to make money on top of that (something they said they aren’t going to be able to do when the Volt first goes on sale).

GM is looking at having to get the cost of manufacturing down probably close to $17,000 overall on the Volt if they want to take on the Prius. I just don’t see it….I don’t think they even have any designs, at any point, to attempt to have the Volt go into this price bracket, or take on the Prius at all.

I think internally GM would be delighted to eventually sell 60,000 copies a year at $35,000 and make $2,500 a pop on them. I would be too…I think that is reasonable optimism.

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+1 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:36 am

You Funni today!

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:42 am

Success is measured in many ways. I agree these two vehicles are worlds apart and should not be compared against each other at this point in time. Later as the Volt gains production numbers, assuming it does, the comparison will be drawn along the lines of which vehicle best fits the needs of the average consumer. At this point in time there is no way to accurately measure that. We people on this site, who are true believers in the Voltec system, believe the Volt is the car of the future. Maybe so. Only time will tell. There are many bridges to cross for the new GM. The Volt is a very long way from becoming successful. I believe it will, but it is going to be a very long and trying series of ups and downs. Good luck GM.

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+2 Tagamet Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:44 am

My point is simply that on a less myopic scale (heh), there will be many offerings of vehicles that offer an AER. The more offerings the better and there will likely be many successful combinations from BEV’s on down.
JMO.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!***********NPNS

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:51 am

I am not so sure GM will be selling battery packs to other companies any time soon. I think they are going to have to designate all of their production to the Voltec systems GM will be putting out. I am assuming there will be enough battery cells to satisfy demand for battery pack vehicles under the GM brand. If cell supply keeps pace, then, yes, one day GM could sell some packs to other companies. But I sure don’t look for that to happen any time in the next 5 to 7 years.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:53 am

That is because it is a Prissy with a Buick front end. You knew that, didn’t you?

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+1 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:55 am

Absolutely.

I do think however that the new technology might pull a few more new car buyers in from the used market.

My last new car was my wife’s 2002 Subaru Impreza.
(Bought summer of 01, now showing ~220000 km on the clock)
I’ll step up to the plate on a new Volt. (She will get this new car too…)

But absolutely I think that once the Volt hits the road and the public see’s what it can do there will be other Voltec models to address other requirements. “Voltibu”, “Volterado” (for CJS!), “Voltlando” etc…

These will or could displace the conventional models as time goes on. I think once public perseption changes and they see the advantages the sales volume could swing to Voltec rather quickly.

I like the size of my old Malibu (’98) but would be happy to use less fuel while retaining the comfort. Filled up this morning, 43 litre’s of gas (shell 87) for 453 km of city driving. Far from horrible, but there is the very real possibility that a new “Voltibu” would use a whole lot less fuel. I’m up for that.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:08 am

Lyle is becoming a photoshop wizard!

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+2 Noel Park Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:15 am

Charlie H.:

50,000 Prius IIIs a month? Where did that number come from? The last I heard, they had planned to make 110,000 in this model year, and were overwhelmed because demand looked like 180,000. this is the first I have heard of 600,000 a year. A bit of exaggeration, perhaps?

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:27 am

N Riley said:
June 30th, 2009 at 9:27 am

Statik, you forgot to say FIRST!! And second and third…..
==============
Yes, quite a tradgedy indeed.

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+1 N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:27 am

I have in the past, and even in the last few days, called on GM to broaden their hybrid technology by developing a Prius like hybrid vehicle. I am having second thoughts on this now. While I want GM to offer many hybrid vehicles, I have decided the best choice for the drive train for these hybrid vehicles would be the Voltec system now being developed for the Chevrolet Volt and not a version of the Prius hybrid system. My conclusion was a result of me realizing that GM would be dividing its attention and resources at a time when it needs to gather its collective brain power and its resources to make the Voltec system available in as wide a range of GM vehicles as possible over the next three to four years. There is no need to develop a Prius look alike for GM. They already have a better system on the pre-production assembly lines now. Just get those Volt wheels on the road, GM. Move it forward at an increased time frame and be ahead of schedule for its release. And get ready to ramp production for the 2012 model year to 100,000 vehicles.

Good luck and great success to all the great employees of GM.

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:32 am

Why would GM be selling battery packs at all? And how would they do that?

They don’t make the cells, all they do is make the housing…are we saying that other companies won’t want to design their own casings? Or that LG can’t do that for them?

Why wouldn’t LG, who actually makes the product be looking to sell to other manufacturers? And in so doing, why wouldn’t LG be cheaper and be a lot more knowledgeable about the product and future iterations of that product in the pipeline?

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+2 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:33 am

MaynardKeenan;

As much as I like Voltec drive I’m also aware of what it is and is not.

Voltec drive (GEN 1 at least) is absolutely highway capable but it is going to be much more suited to the 100kph (60 mph) sections of the Autobahn than the ‘open’ sections. It is designed for and really more suited to city driving. Which for most of us is most of our driving.

If you really need to be able to run at 140 MPH then I suggest a Corvette or Camaro.
I understand they make the odd car in Germany that can exceed 100 kph as well.
(I’m kidding! I’ve wanted a 911 since I was a kid!)

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:36 am

You are very likely right about that!
Which is a very good reason for GM to say thanks but no thanks.

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:36 am

Thats worldwide production. (estimated at 600K going forward)

To be fair you have to do it that way if yor comparing Volt vs Prius. As we know, the Volt capacity is 10,000 in the first full year, then up to 60,000 in subsequent years…but that is not NA intent production, but is exported/distributed worldwide. (After you get past the initial regional US rollout for the first 6 months-maybe 3,000 cars). If GM sells 50,000 total Volts in say, 2013, it is likely only half with be US sales

GM has committed the Volt to dozens of countries in 2011/2012…all of which are coming out of the same, single line, Hamtramck facility for the foreseeable future.

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+1 CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:43 am

Sh|t no man. I want the Genset disconnected. I don’t even want to use it. My mpg will be infniatum (is that a word?), ok sideway number 8..

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+3 DaV8or Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:44 am

Agreed. I also wouldn’t call the most putrid looking car on the road no compromise either. Prius fans are very myopic. This idea that the Prius is the only car that matters is silly. They make it sound as though the Prius is the number one selling car in America and the American public is cuing up in nice orderly lines like Japanese factory workers to buy them.

The Prius has been a success, but it is not the end all and be all of the automotive world. Gas mileage is NOT the only consideration on a vehicle purchase no matter what the price of gas is. You only have to look as far as Europe to see this is so. How in the world do Mercedes, BMW and Porsche to name a few stay in business with out a 50mpg+ hybrid when gas cost $7 a gallon+ over there? The Volt vs. Prius debate is absurd. Two totally different cars in two very different markets. End of debate. The only real competitor the Prius has is the Insight. Where does that leave the rest of the automotive world outside Toyota and Honda, on the verge of total collapse?? I think not.

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V=IR Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:49 am

Agreed. This is still my favorite though.

http://gm-volt.com/2009/03/23/volt-mule-winter-testing-has-been-successful/

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+1 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:51 am

I do see the possibility of a Volt SS in Gen 2 but I’d expect that Gen1 Volts will be in the slow lane on the Autobahn.

Without actually seeing the housing where the drive motor lives it’s plain guesswork, but I’m betting there isn’t enough room for a larger motor and all the associated bit’s (likely gearing as well) required to push a Volt down the highway at 140 mph. As well this would likely require an upgraded Genset (turbo?). If this were to happen it would likely need to be added to the updated Gen 2 platform.

There is a certain amount of ‘cool’ to this, but it definately pulls the focus away from the core competency of the Volt. (excellent economy)

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DaV8or Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:53 am

You really think that Toyota should lose the Tacoma line? With gas prices going higher and people still needing to get work done, I would think there might be a renaissance in small trucks. It is cheaper and does get better mileage than the Tundra, so it seems right for the times. The rest I agree with. Getting out of NUMMI makes sense.

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Schmeltz Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:54 am

Yeah, now you’re talking N. Riley. Are you thinking on the line of say a Cruze with a Voltec system, such as the ones installed in the Cruze-based Volt mules??? When I saw those cars, I thought, “There you go GM! Make a Cruze Voltec model with less battery and AER to keep the price down!” I realize such a car may undermine sales from the Volt, but there already is essentially the car the market is screaming for. I think CorvetteGuy has shared this sentiment before on this site. What do others think? Is there room for a Cruze Voltec car along side of a Volt in the future for GM? (I sure think so!).

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+2 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:58 am

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the tricky part of a large battery cell the management of it’s ‘health’?

There is a lot of propritary management of the charge levels and temperature that is built into each T-battery. They have put thousands and thousands of hours of testing into these systems.

There is a lot of value added from what I can see.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:01 am

Absolutely!

Memories…. la la la la la la la……

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+1 N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:05 am

I think GM is looking at the experience Ford has had with the Escape Hybrid. Toyota completely controls the number of Escapes Ford can build and the supply of parts. Not a situation GM needs to find itself in. Does anyone know if the new Ford Fusion Hybrid is a Ford developed hybrid system or is it based on licensed technology from Toyota like the Escape? That would be unbelievable if Ford were to go down that same path with the Fusion Hybrid.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:08 am

It is all about missed opportunities. Sorry you missed out on it. Maybe another such opportunity will arise soon.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:13 am

Respectfully I disagree on this one.

The Volt and Cruise are basically the same size (built on the same platform) and they would steal each others volume.

NOT a good thing!

Volume and cost reductions will drop the price of the Volt. I think they need to develop a midsize car, a small pickup (CJS is absolutely right there are lots of small businesses that need that) and a people mover. (minivan or CUV)

I think the Cruise could be the last conventional small car for GM. The engineering isn’t wasted, it will just be called Volt.

As always though, the trick to it all is the battery price coming down. (I think they know how to drop the price already but are letting us ’stew’ a bit!)

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+2 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:17 am

Plug it in every night and keep the commute under 40 miles and you get your wish!

Of course if you happen to run the battery down you won’t need a tow. Personally I’m extremely cool with that!

To infinity and beyond!

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+1 N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:17 am

I think you are pretty well on target, Statik. I can’t see the Volt pushing down into the Prius’ price range, but I can see another GM entry that could do it. Don’t know exactly what that would be, but it would not be as “high classed” as the Volt to save on cost. Not as high grade materials, etc, etc.

GM may very well be satisfied with 60,000 copies of the Volt per year, but I don’t think that is the full scope of their plans. They may also be reaching for 25,000 copies of a Cadillac and another 35,000 copies of a Buick version. Plus, the Orlando style CUV, if that is what it is, with a Chevrolet badge and a Voltec power train could add another 25,000 copies – maybe a good bit more if it really delivers the full package well.

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+1 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:18 am

It’s definately a better looking Prius!

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:23 am

Statik,

That is what I am saying. Why would GM do it? I only mentioned that in the future we don’t know what GM has planned for a “battery facility”. They may want to get back into the full phase of the business, although I don’t think so. They would be much better off by having an independent fully functional working partner like LG Chem to do a lot of the leg work and suffer the up front development cost. I believe they will stay with their current game plan for many years. And we can’t forget A123 as future working partner. Really doesn’t make sense for GM to get into the actual manufacturing of the battery cells, I agree.

Maybe your reply was better directed at Joe than me.

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+1 canehdian Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:24 am

I think GM’s stupid to discontinue the Vibe.
Just call it a Chevy Vibe and move on.
It was a great seller.. I see TONS of them around town. Why kill a model that’s doing well? I guess the new GM is no better than the old.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:29 am

Nice scenery. What is that car in the foreground? A 2010 Prius? (just kidding.)

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:33 am

I really like the look of the Cruze. I would be very interested in a Cruze with Voltec power train. Reduced MPC to around 20 miles would be ok with me also. A car like that could compete right in the Prius price range and knock some Toyota heads together doing it. That’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it.

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+1 CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:34 am

I concur!

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:36 am

Because the Vibe is built in a partnership that was not favorable to GM that’s why.

You are right though there are a lot of them around, one friend has one and it’s a good’un… another has an 06 and it needs a replacement engine.

This is admittedly an incredibly small sample but it doesn’t make me feel all cuddly about the car.

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:38 am

Hey, I brought this up in the past about the cells GM uses in the T-Pack. They’re Manganese. These are fairly rare chem makeup for commodity cells and hard to find.
Did GM contract with LG for “Fair Market Value” on these? If they did, this means the market value is really really high and I’m going to bet LG can manipulate this. There are very very few companies that make 40AH Li-Manganese “Pouch” style cells. Good luck finding one.

Paint, Corner?

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:43 am

The Chinese and Cuba have teamed up to drill in areas off Florida’s coast that is off-limits to U.S. companies by order of the president and congress. Yes, there is plenty of oil to be discovered. Just look at the huge oil find off Brazil’s coast that was found last year. Many, many areas have not been researched and test drilled. Lots more oil than the anti-oil lobby now controlling the U.S. government wants to admit. Not part of their plans. Doesn’t fit into the new doctrines.

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:45 am

I have never seen one here in the Ghetto/Trailer park.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:46 am

Unni,

I think Lyle, and a good number of us, are intoxicated by the success of the Pius. Call it Prius envy. We want the same type of success with the Volt, but even more so. Nothing wrong with discussing the primary “green technology” vehicle on the market today. It is just part of the landscape and we can’t ignore it.

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Noel Park Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:47 am

statik@10:36 AM:

Well then I guess we’re going to be driving our old Impala for a good long time to come, LOL.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:55 am

The Cruise IS a nice looking car, a reasonable evolution of the Cobalt.

My concern is badge engineering rearing it’s head again. What we DON’T need or want is 5 ‘models’ of the same basic car competing for the same buyers.

I also think that within a couple years they WILL cost reduce the Volt into the high $20k’s and be profitable.

I’m starting to sound like Dan P!

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DonC Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:55 am

To answer your question about the “conventional car”, doesn’t CAFE more or less obliterate it? It’s very hard to see how cars and trucks don’t change dramatically. You can’t increase fuel economy by 5% a year with better tires and variable transmissions. The new standards are a big deal.

I don’t BTW see the Volt being a $20K car. I don’t see the Prius being a $20K car either. The magic number is probably more like $32K (right now the magic number is $30K and I’m factoring in inflation). The Volt will be able to command a premium of a few thousand dollars, perhaps more, in comparison to the Prius because it will just be a much better and more attractive vehicle from a tech and performance standpoint. It may also supplant it as the quintessential “green car”, which will in fact dent Prius sales (from the levels it would otherwise be not necessarily from current levels).

But assuming they are both successful doesn’t suggest that other brands will be obliterated. 300K cars out of total sales of 13M doesn’t necessarily imply that other models will disappear.

As to what models or brands will be most impacted, I don’t know anyone who has turned in a Civic or Corolla for a Prius. I do know a number of people who have turned in a Lexus or Mercedes or BMW (and in one case a VW) for one. In this regard, posters on this Board keep pitting the Prius against the Volt, and keep doing financial calculations to justify one or the other. They’re wrong on both counts: People don’t but a Prius because of money it will save them at the gas station, and they don’t look at Civics and Impalas before buying one.

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 11:59 am

“EPA reverses decision, approves California’s greenhouse gas emissions waiver”

Google it.

Now if Auto mfgrs just built good EV commuter cars of 100MPC, they would have nuttin to b|tch about.

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:00 pm

Ford Licensed the HSD from Toyota.

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+2 statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:05 pm

Your right Neal,

I certainly didn’t mean to suggest that GM would do a ‘one and done’ with the Volt, or Voltec itself (provided of course it is a seuccess).

It would be easier/smarter to tier the Voltec technology across a couple brands and a different entry levels to get to a high volume with a acceptable margin.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:07 pm

Possibly, but more likely the pack is designed with any number of possible alternative cell types in mind.

A quick flash to the battery management controller and you can run the new high capacity “soy bean/wheatgrass” battery. I think it’s a brilliant solution, let the battery cell vendors compete and GM picks the best of the bunch.

The individual battery cell modules are a commodity. Right now it’s Li-Manganese, who knows what is next?
The ‘pouch’ style packaging could be specified for any number of battery chemestry’s. Vendors package product to customer requirements all the time, this ain’t new.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:09 pm

You’re right on Statik. Too bad about the job loses, but I must say the UAW is the primary cause of high labor cost. If they could come to real cost savings for Toyota, then the plant might stay open. But I don’t see the UAW bowing down to Toyota. I think they would use any negotiations as an excuse to try to stick it to Toyota who has been unwilling to deal at its other U.S. plants. I say close the plant and move the production to its new U.S. Prius assembly plant Toyota has been building in Blue Springs, Mississippi. Bring the Corolla and Tacoma line also. Plenty of space to add on to the plant and its a “right to work” state. Heaven on earth – if you can stand the hot, humid summers.

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:09 pm

I know what you are saying in this respect MuddyRoverRob (featuring correct spelling), but that T shape is unlikely to be the optimal configuration in other brands…and all of the other major automakers have the same small ‘fleet’ of engineers/nerds on staff already, just dying to call a little piece of the EV market their own.

I can’t a major automaker adding a 3rd party to the mix for something that they likely can handle in house (or by the original OEM), other then if it was a short term deal, if they were in a real rush to get into the market.

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+1 DonC Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:10 pm

Since Fisker is already making an E-REV, the Karma, we’d have to say that some other manufacturer will in fact release such a vehicle. If the question is whether a major manufacturer will make one, the answer would have to be “yes” because the concept is so powerful.

When that happens is another story. To some extent GM caught everyone a bit flat-footed. Right now the other majors are behind. My guess is that rather than spend a lot of capital trying to catch up, they’ll wait a bit longer and see how it turns out before making a major push.

I don’t BTW see Chrysler doing a lot in this area. It has many other issues that it needs to get sorted. I also think you underestimate the institutional disadvantage that Chrysler has vis-a-vis GM in the area of electrical vehicles. it makes a big difference having engineers like Weber who have worked on EVs for more than a decade. When developing new products new ideas are great but experience is usually more valuable. (Which is why GM is pessimistic about its ability to catch up to Toyota in hybrid technology).

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:11 pm

Sorry about that, it was totally supposed to go to Joe, lol. I think we are totally on the same page on this one.

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CDAVIS Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:11 pm

______________________________________________________
N Riley Said:
“I have decided the best choice for the drive train for these hybrid vehicles would be the Voltec system now being developed for the Chevrolet Volt and not a version of the Prius hybrid system. My conclusion was a result of me realizing that GM would be dividing its attention and resources at a time when it needs to gather its collective brain power and its resources to make the Voltec system available in as wide a range of GM vehicles as possible over the next three to four years.”
——-
I agree 100%

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:12 pm

“A quick flash to the battery management controller and you can run the new high capacity “soy bean/wheatgrass” battery.”

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Good one.

I wish it were that easy. Technically if the chem is changed they would have to go through the same qual testing as the original chem. This takes a long time. Remember how long it took for them to test the current one?

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spellchekerguy Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:13 pm

I believe the word is infinamigable.

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+1 CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:23 pm

GM should stop development of any Hybrid tech other than Voltec.
Voltec is the easiest migration to a full on BEV WHEN batt tech reaches better capacity.

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Dave G Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:24 pm

GM has said that an EREV SUV is not commercially viable with current battery technology.

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:26 pm

As long as your ‘old’ Impala is a SS (and not this gen…96 or older), you should be ok.

I really don’t think limited capacity is going to be a extended issue for people in North America that are ‘fanatics’ and pre-order one, although, I’m still going to pencil in a year’s wait time…especially considering the Camaro pre-order fiasco.

If they pull that again (and I don’t see why they won’t) 50% of the first year’s production are going to go out as, ‘one-off committments’ to dealers to show off for greenie brownie points, and to take orders on. (while the dealer’s try to max out the premiums they can get)

But that is just part of the game now, if you go into it with that expectation, you won’t end up disappointed. (Nothing more frustrating than tracking your build status when you are seeing them in the flesh)

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+1 Tim Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:26 pm

And now for some REAL news:

Uncertainty Clouds Recovery of U.S. Investment in GM
Carmaker’s Shares Would Have to Hit A Historic High

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/29/AR2009062904105.html

“Though the world’s factories can produce about 100 million vehicles a year, demand for them only stands at about 55 million, and the gap will push prices and profits down…”

“It’s very unlikely” that the government will recover its (OUR TAX) money, said David Whiston, auto equities analyst at Morningstar. “GM will be a smaller company after the bankruptcy and there are going to be more foreign automakers entering the market that will make GM’s efforts more difficult.”

Taxpayers get to PAY while the lawyers, lobbyists, politicians and of course… the unions get to PLAY.

Meanwhile, the “Fed” has allowed our corrupt politicians to run up over $56.4 Trillion in public debt (your share is currently: $184,000) and has replaced the free market with crony capitalism. The Fed has NEVER been publicly audited.

http://www.pgpf.org/

Call you your representative and DEMAND that they co-sponsor and Support HR1207 in the house and S604 in the Senate without amendments so that we can finally audit the Fed and find out where the $Trillions of OUR debt created in the last few months is going.

(or we can simply pay no attention to the rising public debt and keep on fiddling for a new toy.)

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+1 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:29 pm

DonC

You have a very good point, although the numbers of Prius’ are getting up there in the overall world picture the sales numbers are a drop in the bucket.

I was thinking the Entry level Volt high $20k range ($28k perhaps) With the ‘fancy’ leather/sunroof/nav/foot massage model being more.

However, if GM CAN build a Voltec mass market midsize car (which I have personally become accustomed to) in the low $30’s I can see the sales being extremely brisk.

Possibly brisk enough to allow the battery price to drop to the point where the t-pack could be dropped into the new Chevy “Metro/sprint/spark” possibly allowing a BEV with a bowtie at a competitive price.

An EREV version with a 3 cyl could be a winner. The $20kcdn small EREV car would fit the bill to buy for my son in university, burns little gas on the highway coming home and burns NO gas while tooling around the college town. Makes budgeting easier for the finance department too! (That’s me)

The Voltec technology looks like it will be flexible enough to allow this sort of evolution with little extra development time.

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Tim Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:31 pm

States brace for shutdowns

Time is running out for the legislatures in Arizona, California, Indiana, Mississippi and Pennsylvania to solve budget gaps.
By P.J. Huffstutter and Nicholas Riccardi
June 30, 2009

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-shutdown30-2009jun30,0,1912245.story

(keep on fiddling boys! This is fun…)

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Jackson Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:33 pm

I’ve been told that elements of the Ford and Toyota systems were independently developed but essentially identical; and it took a legal decision to reach the current state where each company has assist hybrids of very similar design on the road.

I don’t recall the details, but I’m not a legal guy.

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+1 Jackson Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:36 pm

Voltec on the Autobahn:

Put in a two-speed automatic, and unlock the software limit. Keep the “T” size battery when the higher-capacity cells are developed. Problem solved.

/my two Euros

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+1 Jackson Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:38 pm

There is nothing in the EREV concept which would inherently keep a vehicle off the Autobahn. I don’t see it in the cards for some years, though.

The same cannot be said for Prius or Insight.

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+1 Tall Pete Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:39 pm

I’m surprised nobody talked about the issue of image. If you use your business opponent technology, what does it say about the confidence you have in yours ?

In order to project the image of confidence about their own Voltec technology, it seems to me that GM had no other choice but to distance itself from Toyota. They are not GM’s friends, if ever they were.

If you want to regain your technological crown, you must not give any credit to the ‘old’ technology of Toyota. Toyota is so passé, GM holds the key to the future.

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Dave G Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:39 pm

LG has incentive to get the cost lower. If they can manufacture and sell it for 1/4 of the current price, they will sell 100 times more.

The Volt battery pack currently costs around $8000. That price is from CPI, who currently manufactures the Volt packs. They also say the packs should come down to $2000 within the next 10 years.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:41 pm

statik (also correct spelling, you made me laugh!)

OK,

“If” a manufacturer WAS going to use the GM T-Pack battery they would build the new car body to fit it wouldn’t they?

Alternately, now that GM has experience building the T-Pack I can’t imagine it’s that big of a stretch to change the shape going forward. (”H-Pack”?)

The advantage of GM is that they have a large ‘fleet’ of engineers and nerds! (Being a nerd in an engineering role I REALLY like that one!)

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-1 Jackson Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:42 pm

Unwelcome back, John. We haven’t missed you.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:42 pm

I hope you are correct about getting back on top again. There is so much going against GM right now. Not only cost considerations, production considerations, quality considerations, dependability considerations and the really big one – the public’s perception consideration. The hardest to overcome is the public perception. It has been earned by and placed on GM over the last quarter century. GM doesn’t deserve the current public perception, but they are saddled with it nevertheless.

“The media loves to pick on GM in a negative way.” True statement. The fact is that GM is the Republicans of the auto company world. The media loves to pick on Republicans also. They, like GM, have earned much of what they reap.

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Jackson Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:43 pm

21 miles per gallon, city. No thanks.

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:44 pm

Sorry, I was unclear. I didn’t mean discontinue the Tacoma entirely, just out of California. They really don’t need the extra capacity anymore, considering this tricky environment…or the premium cost structure associated with NUMMI.

Sidenote: Toyota builds Tacomas out of Tijuana as well.

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:46 pm

CaptJackSparrow said:

Sh|t no man. I want the Genset disconnected. I don’t even want to use it. My mpg will be infniatum (is that a word?), ok sideway number 8..
=====================

I think you were going for this –> ∞

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DonC Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:47 pm

To give some perspective on the issue of how much tech there might be in battery management, Toyota filed over 1000 patents when designing the most recent Prius.

While I’d agree that the T shaped battery pack is not a big deal, there is a lot of tech in battery management for PHEVs and BEVs. You have to maintain and manage batteries at the cell level both during charging and discharging. it’s a very difficult area. (I’ll just note all the problem Tesla has had with its air cooled system). While there are usually work arounds for most patents, the company that gets there first usually has a big advantage.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:53 pm

Absolutely they would have to test the heck out of the “soy bean/wheatgrass” and that will absolutely take time, but you can bet that they will be doing just that in the shiny super duper battery lab.
They’ll try every chemestry that comes down the pipe to find the best combination of reliability, cost, and power reserves.

It’s pretty unlikely that the existing supply would dry up overnight, more likely there will be lots of lead time and they will already have in test or completed testing of the next best thing.

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:53 pm

I owned a 2003 Pontiac Vibe GT for about four years (well it was the wife’s 4 seater commuter car). I enjoyed it quite a bit…no problems, but I can see why that particular version was not well received…and the standard engine choices were/are pretty anemic, and the GT had a lot of ‘issues’ that limited its acceptance.

In the GT:
No automatic option (6 speed only) – which I liked
Really high revving in the GT trim to coax the power out of it – which I liked
No sunroof option (at the time) with the GT – no clue why
17″ tires, that were NOT rated for winter – had to buy a second set of rims and tires

I have no complaints about my time driving in it (although I was only a occasional driver). Was fun to zip around at 6,000+ RPMs from time to time, and the interior I thought was quite impressive/accomodating for its year/price point. For some reason it sold much better in Canada (relatively speaking) than in the US.

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:58 pm

I think A123 should revisit why they went to a cylindrical cell and try a “Pouch” type.

Just MHO.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:00 pm

BINGO!!

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+1 MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:03 pm

Absolutely agreed!

As usual I’m harping on keeping the project ontrack, an excellent city car that can ‘do’ cross-country. Turning it into a full on Autobahn burner is fairly far from the stated objective.

A LATER SS version would be GREAT and maybe even required to be truly mainstream.

We’re on the same page my friend!

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:04 pm

Since Obama is the head of both corporations, could we see him telling GM to share technology with its “sister” company, Chrysler? When it comes to government meddling, the possibilities are endless.

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:07 pm

“That price is from CPI, who currently manufactures the Volt packs.”

I though GM opened their own facility to do this? If not, then what did they waste the $$$ on?

“They also say the packs should come down to $2000 within the next 10 years.”

I’m skeptical on this. I haven’t seen the contract but I (the CO I worked 4 in the past) have been burned in such contracts that fair market value and longevity of the contract as well as Qty is the killer of all product lines. If LG says GM needs to by X amount of Cells the first year at fair mkt value then GM must do so. Now fair mkt value will suck because there are little to no LiMn mfgrs in the 40AH “Pouch” style. It will always be expensive. LG can make claims all they want on what “Might” be the cost in 10 years but if the contract is for even 2 years a market value that has no competition, then what are the chances prices will go down? Very little.
we made this mistake one time but it was called “Sole Source contract”. Got screwed paying for a product where commodity performance was better than what we contracted for and the source basically said, they were the only ones to offer that technology at the specs we gave. Basically locked us in a price that was fair market value but there was no competition to make “Fair”.

So does anyone know any details on the LG Contract by chance?
Just curious.

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-1 KentT Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:08 pm

Why does this keep coming up? Doesn’t the automotive press read their own script? GM, along with BMW and Daimler worked on the “two-mode” hybrid system. Why? No one wants to pay Toyota royalties or whatever to use their “Synergy Drive” which is Toyota’s hybrid system.

Ford does pay Toyota as they use the Synergy Drive technology in the Ford hybrid Escape. They did use in on the Fusion but for 2009-2010 supposedly they have their own wrinkle on it and don’t have to pay Toyota for they Fusion hybrid.

The Volt is the third major hybrid system but is really a true electric car. All other hybrid systems are just that, a mix of a little electric boost and a whole lot of carbon spewing internal combustion engine! When fast charge and cost competitive 200+ mile batteries come on the scene GM can dump the range extender and the Volt will become a pure electric. Toyota’s Synergy Drive is a complex transmission that adds to the cost of any car using it so from a cost standpoint it has been a money losing car for a very long time. Only recently (two years ago?) did Toyota state they are finally making money on the Prius. (Hmmm. I wonder if that is from the royalties from Ford?!)

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:12 pm

Dude, we are soooooo screwed here in California. I have a feeling I will get laid off in the next 4 months.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

I truly do understand your position about “5 models competing for the same set of buyers”. Not an exact quote. I felt like changing it a little. But you are 100% correct. Unless there is a real difference between the vehicles. Style (Volt aerodynamics vs the Cruze’s more conventional look) and EV range (Volt’s 40 mpc vs the Cruze at 20 mpc).

But I do like the idea of a mini-van (commercial & personal) or a small pickup with the Voltec system. Nothing in disagreement with you on the major points.

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:21 pm

Hyundai Tackles High and Uncertain Fuel Prices With Assurance Gas Lock — $1.49 Per Gallon Guaranteed for a Year

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hyundai-tackles-high-and-uncertain-fuel-prices-with-assurance-gas-lock-149-per-gallon-guaranteed-for-a-year-2009630113200

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

Seems like I remember something about that. That is probably why Toyota and Ford entered into cross-licensing agreements with their hybrid systems. Neither felt like fighting the other for something developed separately that was so much alike. Or something like that.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

Depends on size and whether we are talking about an SUV or an CUV. Plus whether we are talking 20, 25 or 30 MPC. Lots of things could be done when you want to do it. The Orlando vehicle would fit the bill quite nicely, I think.

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DonC Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:36 pm

This sounds a lot like a record company in 2001 talking about the lack of competition to CDs.

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k-dawg Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:37 pm

Carpocalypse?

I dont think so. As long as gas stays at $2.50ish a gallon there’s not much motivation (for the masses ) to move to a Prius or Volt. People will still buy trucks, SUVs, CUVs, Camaros, etc. It will be interesting on the green-car battlefront though if/when a Prius and a Volt both cost the same price. I think even if this # was $22,000, people would still buy ICE’s just because they want a car w/some balls and dont want to fiddle w/plugs. Gas price is the major motivator, IMO.

PS: Back from CCCP. Good to be home fellow ‘mericans. It only took 24hours to get here from Moscow but happy none-the-less.

PSS: this new format is like some sort of bubbling multiverse with new threads sprouting out everywhere.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:48 pm

Consumer Reports has been pretty negative on the Vibe. Maybe the latest edition of the car is better than the earlier ones. It is just a Toyota Matrix with a Pontiac badge. Yet, C/R rates the Matrix pretty good. Go figure. Bias working here. You better damn well believe it is. I subscribe to C/R and I see it all the time. You can’t blame the magazine itself as to where it does its research – its subscribers. Most C/R subscribers are just the type consumer for the Japanese and European vehicle market. Well heeled and somewhat biased against American made products.

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David K (CT) Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

Just another gimmick…less than $500 in savings over the course of a year. Well, at today’s gas prices.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:05 pm

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, CJS. But in case it does, you might want to start stocking up on the necessities of life. You know, the beer supply. Don’t take a chance on running out. I know, it is not something to make fun of and I am not really trying to do it in a bad way. But a little humor smooths the way sometimes. I do hope things will work out for you as well as everyone else who is out job seeking. Not a very good thing to be doing, I know.

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Noel Park Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:16 pm

Yup, 95 SS. 126K miles, and runs and looks just fine. We bought it to make a statement, and we are still making it every day.

I know that we have gone over this many times but, even at 15 mpg city and 20 mpg highway, you cannot justify buying a new car on the basis of saving gas $$. Especially since we are driving it about 6K miles/year now. At that rate, I figure it is good for another 10 years, easy.

So, until Chevy comes out with something which makes as much of a statement in today’s context as the SS did in 1995, we are out of the game. The only thing I see on the horizon which will do that is the Volt.

I’ve probably said this too many times already, but here it is again. We have the money put aside. If you want to sell us a car, show us the Volt. If that sounds like a dare, it is.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:19 pm

Might be a gimmick, but add that to a quality car and a 10-year 100,000 mile warranty and I can see Hyundai coming on as a force to deal with. Doesn’t Hyundai own KIA? Or is it the other way around? Or maybe I am all wet there.

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Noel Park Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:25 pm

I don’t think that GM’s facility is up and running yet. Weren’t they going to build a new facility for this? Have they even started?

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Noel Park Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:27 pm

Yeah, it’s like watching Rome burn. Lord only knows what’s going to happen.

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Noel Park Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:30 pm

No Hyundais, no way, no time, not if the first year’s gas is FREEEEE!!, as one of our local mini-celebrities is so fond of screaming.

If I wanted to buy a Hyundai, I sure wouldn’t be frittering away my time here at GM-Volt.com, LOL.

Next case.

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Mary H Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:32 pm

GM only wants bailout funds, has no interest in building cars. Even now as they burn thru $30,000,000,000,000.00 dollars, the plants are closed, the workers are fulowed, with pay sitting at home, lobbyiest are paid, eveyone is payed except the people who put money into the stock. Fold GM, allow a company that want to build cars to emerge,PLEASE.

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David K (CT) Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:33 pm

I’m just sayin’.

These incentives (gimmicks) are simply trade offs for your ability to to purchase the car at a lower price.

As a matter of fact my wife’s car is an ‘03 Elantra w/ 110k miles with no problems (see loves it). We bought it as a “left over” for $13.8k fully loaded…sunroof and all (no leaks yet). No question…it’s a quality car, way better than you’d expect for the price we paid.

Also, I don’t know about Kia vs. Hyundai other than I believe the Kia is the “upper end” models (i.e. Acura vs. Hunda).

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:39 pm

If that was going to happen it should have been done 9 months ago. Too little too late by now. Too much of “our” money is sunk into reviving them. All we can do now is hope it works. You can help, of course, by buying vehicles from GM and financing it through GM. Every dollar made helps to recover “our” money that congress and the president so recklessly wastes.

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+1 jeffhre Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:49 pm

Range extenders can be deisel, ng methane, propane, bio deisel, E85…

“When fast charge and cost competitive 200+ mile batteries come on the scene GM can dump the range extender and the Volt will become a pure electric.”

Or gas turbine, fuel cell, flux capacitance & Mr. Fusion, cold fusion, magnetized target fusion, magnetic confinement fusion, dense plasma focus, bubble fusion, or a home made sprayed on thin film all spectrum multi-angle 100% conversion factor solar finish.

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Charlie H. Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:52 pm

DonC,

I’m quite certain I’ve seen 200K units by 2015 projected by a GM spokesperson, which is roughly 60-66K/year (they might have meant 50K). Yes, this could change.

But it takes a lot of resources to ramp to, say, 500K. Toyota has the production facilities to keep ‘em coming. If they come up with another winning combo for HSD (a light pickup, a more appealing crossover, a minivan), they’re going to have the breadth and depth to keep GM at bay in advanced tech/high mpg drivetrains. Add some PHEV capability and they’re really going to be starving GM of customers, because they’ve got the knowhow and scale to keep the prices low.

This slows GM’s attaining profitable levels and really puts the hurt on their operation.

The Volt program is going to be a tough one for GM and success is extremely uncertain.

There’s two schools of thought… that the Volt does not compete with the Prius and that the Volt does compete with the Prius.

I’m in the latter camp. I don’t think GM can come up with a simple, compelling marketing message that distinguishes the Volt enough to justify the extra $18K against a standard Prius (both have a battery and both have a gas engine). If, as seems likely, a PHEV Prius is in the pipe, those two vehicles will be considered, by the buying public, to be nearly identical. Toyota is going to have the whip hand on price and value, for sure.

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N Riley Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 2:59 pm

Not saying I would buy one at this time. I am waiting on the Volt also. But that does not take away from what I said about the Hyundai or KIA vehicles. Would not surprise me to see an E-REV from one of these two in the next few years. They play their future plans a little close to the vest, maybe?

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DaveP Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:04 pm

I don’t really see the \Volt in competition with the Prius, either. People who bought Priuses but really wanted an electric car instead will drop Priuses for \Volts, but that’s not really competition. The price difference is too great for people who don’t care about the tech but just want an efficient car.

No, what WOULD be competition for the Prius would be a \Volt with just a couple kWh battery. That would basically be just another hybrid since the gas engine would have to run nearly all the time, just like the Prius. If power density issues could be solved with a tiny battery pack (hello A123?) then I could envision a car that costs about the same as the Prius but is much simpler to manufacture and has higher performance (and possibly a lot of disconcerting random engine sounds

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Mike-o-Matic Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:05 pm

Plus, if I understood the deal correctly, you have to give up as much as $1000 in incentives/rebates. Doesn’t seem like such a great deal to me.

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David K (CT) Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:08 pm

E-REV Hyundai/Kia?

I’d buy one for my wife.

The Blue (or Black) Volt is MINE!

And her and the kids KNOW IT!

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DaveP Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:15 pm

I’m sorry to see the future of NUMMI is starting to look questionable. Remember at the time back in the early 80’s there were a lot of craptastic small cars being made right here in America and everyone was blaming everyone else for why that was. NUMMI started building well built small cars right here in America with UAW labor and that really put the blame back on the American car company managements for not really trying to build great small cars in America since obviously it could be done.

I also feel kind of sentimental since the first car I ever bought was an ‘87 Corolla FX16 built at the NUMMI plant. I still am driving it, too. If they close the plant and have some kind of commemorative ceremony maybe I’ll drive it over there for it.

As an aside, that FX16 gets about 30mpg in the city with a 0-60 of 8.1 seconds. Few cars have been able to match it for economy/performance over the last 22 years.

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ziv Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:21 pm

Kent, Ford hasn’t paid Toyota a cent for the rights to the hybrid drive Ford used in the Escape Hybrid. Toyota and Ford traded the rights to use each others patents, Ford got the right to produce an Escape Hybrid that they developed themselves but that was too close to Toyotas tech to avoid lawsuits. Toyota has admitted that Ford developed their own tech. Toyota got the right to Ford’s fuel injection system and some diesel tech, if memory serves. No money was exchanged. And now both the Escape Hybrid II and the Ford Fusion Hybrid use tech that doesn’t need a patent trade between the two companies. But Aisin, 20% owned by Toyota, refuses to sell more than 2,000 transmissions/CVT’s to Ford, hence the limit of about 24,000 Escape Hybrids per year. I just hope the FFH doesn’t use the same Aisin parts…

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Herm Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:28 pm

Ford did not buy any tech from Toyota, they developed all their hybrid tech.. they did exchange licences since Toyota patented it first. Ford does not build more Escapes because they probably lose money on it.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:32 pm

I’m no marketing wizard, maybe I’m wrong… BUT I think people got really tired of the mult model ‘thing’.

I LIKE the aero look of the Volt, but I’m just as sure there are those who will disagree with me strongly!

EXCELLENT conversation today!

I did a bunch of running about today and stayed well under 65km!
GO Volt GO!

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:37 pm

Unless there is a really good reason to go ’round’ the ‘pouch is MUCH more space efficent.

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Herm Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:48 pm

They did go to a pouch type for car batteries, look up the Chrysler electrics and see how they packaged the cells.. very similar to the Volt.

Here is a picture:

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/04/chrysler-partnership-a123-systems-batteries-electric-cars.php

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Herm Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:49 pm

The cells from LG cost $8k, the complete assembled pack cost GM $12k

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:51 pm

DonC said:

I don’t BTW see Chrysler doing a lot in this area. It has many other issues that it needs to get sorted. I also think you underestimate the institutional disadvantage that Chrysler has vis-a-vis GM in the area of electrical vehicles. it makes a big difference having engineers like Weber who have worked on EVs for more than a decade. When developing new products new ideas are great but experience is usually more valuable. (Which is why GM is pessimistic about its ability to catch up to Toyota in hybrid technology).

—————————–

Chrysler will do an amount proportional to the amount the government is willing to write them a check for, the same as GM will. Personally, I expect that amount to be in the billions. My question is whether the rest of the business can survive long enough to see the project come to fruition.

As for the institution disadvantage, and having ‘engineers like Weber’ working on it…that could very well be a advantage, but to make that claim, you first have to be intimately familar with all of the players on Chrysler’s team. I don’t make any such claim to know them, or their level of experience. I know some of them are transplants from othercompanies that have a background in electric propulsion, but at this point, no one can claim a background in making lithium electric, ICE extended range vehicles.

According to Chrysler they have been working on electric vehicles/EREV just as long as GM, since early 2005, under Daimler’s flag, but out of it’s own research unit in Palo Alto, but chose not to make it a public show. They felt they had a good enough handle on it, where they didn’t want to just build a small car, but rather tackle a D-segment vehicle…which eventually spawned the Jeep and van.

You of course can dismiss all of that out of hand, but Chrysler has shown and demonstrated three working prototypes since January of 2008, something GM is just now getting to the stage to accomplish.

I think Chrysler knows perfectly well how to build a EREV or RE-EV (whatever they want to call it). Chrysler’s problems have everything to do with the larger company, and not with it’s electric vehicle engineering department….and for myself, that is why I have always marginalized their EV efforts, I just don’t believe they can get it to market and then have deep enough pockets to support ENVI through its formative years.

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DaV8or Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:56 pm

Don’t worry too much about the workers, they’ll just march across the street and start working in the shiny new Tesla factory cranking out Model S by the tens of thousands… Right….

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 3:59 pm

I have no reason to like the 94-96 Impala SS…but I always have. Maybe it is just the statement it makes, I can’t put my finger on it really.

/something in the back of my head told me you were going to have a 94-96 SS…maybe we are online too much, lol

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 4:09 pm

That’s a really nice lookin rectangular “Battery Pack”. I was referring to the cells: http://www.a123systems.com/products

I recall GM indicating the cylidrical limitations at one point.

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 4:11 pm

Here is a perfect example of how the “Car” mfgr is blamed for the vendors product….
That assuming Toyota didn’t mfgr the part which I doubt they do.

Toyota stung by possible Prius HID headlight defect

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/06/30/toyota-stung-by-possible-prius-hid-headlight-defect/

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+1 CDAVIS Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 4:14 pm

______________________________________________________
Sort of (but barely) related too today’s thread…

Can the Prius ICE Directly Charge the Battery?

On yesterday’s thread, I attempted to explain why a Series Hybrid is more fuel efficient than a Parallel Hybrid (comment #46). A couple of posters then asked if the Prius ICE can directly charge the battery.

The answer is YES…as correctly pointed out by VAN’s follow up comment.

Here is the deal:
The Prius control software will at times turn the ICE at a higher (and more efficient) RPM than what the wheels demand and the Delta energy (the difference between what wheels demand and what the ICE is outputting) is captured at the PSD (Power Split Device) by the M1 (Motor-Generator #1, the smaller of two Prius electric motors) by applying counter torque.

The Prius PSD is a very sorted affair but at the same time mechanically elegant:

PSD in Operation (warning: may hypnotize you):
http://eahart.com/prius/psd/

Visual Cutaway of Linkage ICE, MG1, MG2, & PSD
http://privatenrg.com/01-03MGs%20&%20PSD.jpg

Because the Prius ICE, MG1, MG2, and PSD are directly linked to the wheels, the ICE is required to often variably adjust to meet the power requirement of the wheels the control software taking into account the input power of the MG2 and battery SOC. The Prius control software does at times opportunistically run the ICE at an optimum RPM to recharge the battery as described in the above paragraph. By contrast, the Series Hybrid (Volt) has the ability to always run the ICE at a constant speed sweet spot because the ICE is not linked to the wheel.

I’m guessing that if you on a graph compared the ICE RMP profile of a Prius against a Volt you would see this:

Prius ICE: RPM all over the place but at times opportunistically leveling at a RPM sweet spot.

Volt ICE: RPM always at one of the constant speed sweet spots.

Therefore…..
Seires Hybrid is more effienct than a Paralel Hybrid.
______________________________________________________

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Charlie H. Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 4:16 pm

Noel writes, “50,000 Prius IIIs a month?”

In 2007, Toyota sold 180K Priuses in the North America alone. Their worldwide production was about 240K, perhaps more.

For the Prius III, Toyota added additional capacity, to about 480K. However, they have 200K orders outstanding and have added still more capacity (overtime, maybe?) to do about 50K/month or 600K units/year. I don’t know if they’ll hold that rate.

This is why I say GM has its work cut out for it. The Prius has made a market; a big one.

If Toyota continues to send about 3/4 – no, let’s say just 1/2 – of their Prius production here, it could outsell every single model in GM’s line except maybe the Silverado and the Impala.

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Charlie H. Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 4:21 pm

Ford developed their system independently. They cross-licensed certain patents (Toyota got some diesel-related patents, I believe, in exchange) because their system was strikingly similar to Toyota’s and they didn’t want to get tied up in patent-infringement lawsuits forever.

Ford did their own work but arrived at a too-similar system.

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CaptJacksParrow Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 5:00 pm

@CDAVIS 32

Thanks for the links bro!!!

I actually learned something today and I wasn’t even trying…..lol

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 6:08 pm

They can’t start soon enough.

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 6:09 pm

I don’t really see how 70 year olds would be able to get in and out easily though.

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statik Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 6:12 pm

I noticed that myself when I was looking around to purchase the Vibe (I don’t know if that still holds true). They did say that the original VIbe was too ‘Pontiacy’ with added trim pieces and the Toyota was more simple/elegant…but the next gen (er rather re-skin) saw the Pontiac get ’simplier’ and the Toyota get funkier, and their opinion still favored the Toyota…go figure.

IMO, the orginal Pontiac skin was more appealing than the Toyota version…but I like the new Toyota look better than the current Vibe.

/shrug

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Dan Petit Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 6:51 pm

Inefficient use of the space is how GM regarded the small round cell format. Also, those new flat cells might be far more easily remanufactured. Disassemble, scrub, treat, grow new nanotubes, shred nanotube ends for electron lanes, evacuate to promote electrolyte paste to draw down into nanotubes, add electrolyte paste between plates, refit together. (Possibly something like that as a process.)
Likely very minimal reprocessing/rebuilding, it would seem to me.

The six cylindrical 26 mm wide cells I purchased from A123 (for a speech at the Renewable Energy Roundup here in Texas) two years ago (120 bucks for 6 cells), was how I found out how powerful that chemistry is.

Each has 4 one-hundred-amp fuse tabs on them, so that a short can be stopped from any direction.

I really think you will be able to get your BEV VOLTec without an ICE within, I will guess, 3 years from first Voltec release, those A123 chemistries are that good, especially with those new electron lanes to spiral electrons into the nanotubes. That breakthrough has them performing nearly as well as an ultracap. (But far safer).
Dan.

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Dan Petit Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 7:00 pm

Always great stuff, Dave G.!!

Thanks!
Dan.

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-1 Lurker Says:
June 30th, 2009 at 10:04 pm

Gimmick?
WTF is wrong with you? GM did the same thing with thier GM gas price protection” or whatever the hell it was called.
Just cause a company other than GM does makes it a gimmick?
Get your head straight moron.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,635212207,00.html

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David K (CT) Says:
July 1st, 2009 at 7:16 am

It’s a GIMMICK even if GM did it …A-hole.

Don’t put words in my mouth!

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Lwesson Says:
July 1st, 2009 at 8:47 am

The world seems more strange and darker with each passing day! A Chinese curse is that one have interesting times. Well, we have that in spades!

Regards.——– Higgins

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statik Says:
July 1st, 2009 at 11:10 am

I doubt it. If anything I think they open the Mississippi plant if they once again decide to build Prius stateside.

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Thomas Gilling Says:
July 1st, 2009 at 4:10 pm

The thing is Toyota, think there all that. They think there a hero of the auto industry, when really there just a Japanese car maker who made a lot of money selling cheap cars. And then with a bit of extra cash made a fairly decent line up of hybrid car’s. As some people said Toyota is not doing great. GM have loads of experience and idea’s, so do a lot of european car companies. Face it without America and Europe, who can Japan copy?

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