Grab our RSS Feed

AND

From the Collapse of the Auto Industry Shall Rise the Electric Car

May 31st, 2009 | Posted in: Public Opinion

Close observation of recent developments in the automotive sector leads to a certain conclusion; financial collapse is necessary to bring about needed change.

We are bearing witness to a catastrophic rupture of the car industry as we know it. Not only in terms of the economic machinery upon which it is run, but more so upon the fuel its creations will use. The near death of the auto industry is bringing with it the slow death of the combustion engine.

When GM first introduced the Chevrolet Volt electric car concept, car sales were brisk, oil prices reasonable and the economy appeared healthy. Now that the car is nearing mass production and that most other automakers have subsequently unveiled electric car programs of their own, the economy, the industry, and the company is steeped in disaster.

I do not propose it is the case that the birth of the electric car caused this chaos, but rather it is this chaos that will allow the electric car industry to rise.

Whenever in the history of humankind and industrial progress a new transformational technology has arisen, its ascent has brought with it the demise of that which was before it.

Simple examples are how the typewriter was eradicated by the PC, the Polaroid by the digital camera, or how the horse and cart were replaced by the car. These destructive transformational events take place on many levels, such as the collapse of societies or ecosystems, the extinction of dinosaurs, or even as the big bang gave rise to the universe.

Fundamental market forces of their own right would not have led to a rapid production and adoption of electric cars. Rather, the status quo would have persisted, car companies would have continued to make profitable gas guzzling trucks and people would have kept buy them on credit. Indeed when GM introduced the Volt is was more public relations than an engineering. They didn’t decide to bring it to production until they saw the intense public response. Now it is their last hope.

The collapse of the economy combined with the current administration’s interest in energy independence, alternative energy and electric vehicles will make the rapid rise of the electric car possible.

People have not been buying new cars out of fear of their future economic status, lack of available credit, and a general dearth of financial confidence. They are driving their old cars and are doing so for as long as they can.

The government has chosen to support and recreate the auto industry as one that will grow the already inadvertently kindled electric car enterprise.

And then when the bottom has finally come and gone, and the lean restructured auto companies are mass producing electric cars including the Chevy Volt, the tide will change.

Confidence having begun to rise, and old cars having begun to fail, the people will come. And then our dream will arrive. A country and a world less dependent on oil. The rise of the electric car.

Posted by: Lyle

130 Responses to “From the Collapse of the Auto Industry Shall Rise the Electric Car”

Jason M. Hendler Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 5:14 pm

First
Grant Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 5:20 pm

Well put. Many people have the delusional idea that ‘everything needs to stay like it is’, and that is success. If you change something, they panic. They forget, though, that without some sort of displacement, no change ever occurs. I teach biology, and one of the first things we try to show people as they enter college level classes is that all forces of change require a stimulus. We may not know what the result will be, but the stimulus has been given. Now we get to see what happens.
Jason M. Hendler Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 5:21 pm

I believe we will see several alternative fuel vehicles rise – flex fuel, CNG, hydrogen ICE, compressed air, hydraulic regenerative braking, and so on. We will see parasails on ships and biofuel in airplanes and solar in our utilities, businesses and homes.

This is bigger than just the auto industry.
Red HHR Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 5:22 pm

The stone age did not end for the lack of stones…
Jason M. Hendler Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 5:27 pm

Grant, I agree that a catastrophic failure of the status quo does tend to proceed drastic change, I disagree that a catastrophic failure is necessary.
ccombs Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 5:30 pm

#4 sums it up. When we are done, the transition to electric cars will seem as inevitable as the transition from stone to metal tools. We won’t run out of oil anytime soon (although we will run out of easy oil), and we’re definitely not gonna run out of coal anytime soon (“we” doesn’t include China, which if it keeps its current path is gonna have to import coal in a few dozen years). As much as I despise government interference in the auto industry, if this mess helps us transition to PHEVs and EVs that is a very good thing. Although it would have been nice to do so without all this crap going on…
DonC Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 5:36 pm

There are other reasons why car manufacturers need to develop EVs — they’re new and different. Certainly financial issues are preventing some potential buyers from buying new cars. But that’s not the only reason people are staying out of showrooms. The secular trend over the last 10-15 years is that drivers are keeping their cars longer. For the last decade, every year has seen the median age of cars creep up, moving from 8.3 to 9.4. In Japan the auto industry is dead because younger people just don’t care about buying new cars.

Moreover the car companies have become victims of their own good work. Here in NA there is generally no reason to turn over your cars because they have gotten so good that you can drive them for 10 or even 15 hears without major problems.

Electric cars offer a new and different experience. The term “NPNS” is used here frequently, and it expresses this sentiment. A car is a car, and there is no “driving” reason to replace what is in your garage with a newer version of the same. Yes it will be better but essentially it will be the same. But EVs offer a new paradigm and new technology which is fun and interesting. It gives people a reason to want to buy a car. And if car companies are going to survive they will need consumers who want to buy a car.

NPNS. Or stated differently: Build it and I’ll buy it. Otherwise forget it.
bruce g Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 5:39 pm

Vive la revolution!
Daniel Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 5:45 pm

I see where you’re coming from, but I don’t believe the ends justify the means…

The President grabbed GM singularly, I believe it was inspired by the Volt… He has taken control and fired their leadership personally… Then started using tax money to sponsor incentives to buy the Volt..

I cannot help myself, but to look back at the National Socialists Workers Party and their concept of “The People’s Car”, and industry owned by the state…

Already we are seeing the compromise in quality that comes with the government trying to rush this into production, a ‘160 HP’ electric car should be able to successfully negotiate a hill… we are seeing them take over an otherwise brilliant idea… and render it mediocre…

I have been on hold for a brand new car until a clearly revolutionary car was made.. (That “hold” has been in effect since 1987) The Volt *was* that car…finally, and I am near the top-end of the waiting list…

I also had the additional criteria that it be an American car… That is *not* synonymous with a Government car, in fact , it is THE EXACT OPPOSITE… But now it’s becoming that…

Part of me thinks that they won’t even come in black, because that’s a Green Ages taboo … The point being that the *private* sector was just a relative inch away from a revolutionary vehicle…Finally!

The government swept in and pulled defeat from the jaws of victory…

I have loved Chevy all of my life… Now I am not sure that I could be waterboarded into buying a symbol of the loss of free markets for the sake of a Utopia at gun point…
Jason M. Hendler Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 5:58 pm

Daniel,

I understand your unease, but Obama did not seize GM from its owners. The federal government BOUGHT GM out of bankruptcy. The tax payers now own a majority stake and to get their money’s worth, the feds won’t do anything non viable.

The current settlement does not allow the UAW to go on strike until 2015 – does that sound socialist to you?
andrino.aa Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:03 pm

#5 Jason, unfortunately as long as the Neo-cons think everything is alright, change has to be forced. I am not saying radicals are right, just that the conservative side is , well , slow on the idea for change. After all, the idea of change comes when you think things can be done better . You get some people who are so steamed up about change that they attack anything that doesn’t conform to the status quo. Cat Stevens ( sorry Iusuf ) wrote about it a long time ago ( father and son ) thats just our human behaviour,lol. Christ, even JC himself was about change.
I B Smart Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:10 pm

If the electric car rises from the ashes of the U.S. Automotive industry it will hardly be enough to rid us of our dependence on foreign oil. If you swapped all 200 million american cars with a Volt we would still be heavily dependent on oil. Failure to do the math makes EV enthusiasts look like those global warming fanatics. Surely many of you Volt fans are not this blind. Buy your Volt, but for the right reason, not to eliminate our dependence on oil because it ain’t gonna happen. Some of the people posting on this site need to spend about an hour in Irving, Texas (ExxonMobil HQ) and you might get your head screwed on correctly. Lunatic Fringe at work on this site, dats for sure.
Red HHR Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:13 pm

The alternative scenario is that the plug (forgive implied inferences) is puled on GM. There would be boarded up factories and unemployed auto workers. Now some enterprising group decides to take up the cause and convert a factory, or factories to produce a revolutionary new electric vehicle. Adaptra, Tesla or others. True free enterprise would it not be? Competition from th ashes Phoenix like. The revolution would be born without cost to the tax payer…

Would it work? I do not know, Will there be an opportunity to try, could be. Now GM does know how to build cars. They have made some very good ones. Some of the best. The best parts of GM will be retained in the “Good GM” The remainders will become available. There could be opportunity to rehabilitate with fresh thinking. Or some sort of foolhardy bamboozle. Will there be a chance to build and buy an independent new American car? Or would any possibility become entangled with governmental and legal red tape.
andrino.aa Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:14 pm

#9, Daniel, don’t cry please. I don’t know where you have been getting your info from, but boy it is way off the mark. The only way you can interpret it the way you present it, is to distort the facts. You guys are subjected to some pretty stupid mantra chanting and I think you have swallowed it hook, line and sinker.
Just think, if it wasn’t for Obama, GM would be in TERMINAL: bankruptcy. Which scenario do you prefer? Gone for ever or leaders in new technology? I know what I prefer.
andrino.aa Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:21 pm

#9, Daniel, as an aside, your country did elect a new President to change the country’s direction. He is leading on the front foot. At least he IS leading not stonewalling or living on glory-days fever. “Come the moment, cometh the man”
The Grump Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:21 pm

Nice sappy sediments, Lyle.
—————————————————–
Somebody better think about where the electric will come from for all these wonderful electric cars. We still rely on gas, oil, and coal for most of our non-nuclear energy production. No new nuclear plant has been built for over 30 years. I don’t expect a new nuclear plant to break ground any time soon.

Solar is still expensive, and takes real estate to set up. Apartment dwellers don’t have a choice – no solar for them.

Now, an even bigger problem. What happens when oil / gas prices skyrocket again, and utilities using these fuels pass the price increase to the consumer, like post-Enron California? The Volt doesn’t make you any safer against oil / gas price spikes when your utility uses the same oil or gas to run their generators. Your 300.00 electric bill is now 600.00 per month. What do you do?

It’s not enough to be oil independent if your utility isn’t. We need nuclear power today, and so we have don’t have to worry about energy prices short-term. Meanwhile, we pursue all avenues of alternative energies, so our future energy needs can be met.
———————————————————————–
Sorry to be such a grump, but sappy, feel-good fluff articles like this one make me very, ah, grumpy. What does Lyle want us to do next? Should we all hold hands and sing “I’d like to buy the world a Volt, and keep it company…”? A little too warm and fuzzy for me.

Meantime, I’ll be in the bar, guzzling rum amd cokes with Capt Jack and playing beer pong.
Ed M Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:25 pm

Good dissertation. The world moves on regardless of what we do or think or feel. A hundred years from now the population will be completely changed. Our experiences will be passed on to shape the future just as our ancestors have shaped ours.
Each generations dust and ashes will bring tomorrows future. Those who fail to learn from today’s mistakes are doomed and will become irrelevant.
The GM company that rises from today’s ashes will be far different than the one we know now. The products and services will change. Americans have found that their not the only country that can mass produce quality products. The US unions must also heed the American public if they want to survive.
I see a bright future for America, one free from oil dependence and hopefully an America where the white collar crooks are held accountable in proportion to the crimes that they commit.
EDS'er 17 years Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:26 pm

Move over I-Phone there’s a new kid in town!
Vincent Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:29 pm

#9 without Obama you would have no Chevy to love nor the option to purchase one.

By the time the masses can afford a Volt when the price comes down the Next Gen will be out. Version 2.0 with improvements.

Lyle used a great picture to show the dawn of an new day for the US Automakers.
Change may be hard for some to take hold of…but rest assured it’s here and so is the US auto industry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQkW0RPxptY&feature=PlayList&p=787F4A2F8B7BC0FB&index=0

#16 well said.
Shawn Marshall Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:43 pm

Lyle – you should quit drinking – Your first sentence is clearly illogical. You are also assuming great success for GM & the Volt going forward. That may be a leetle presumptive.
The demise of GM is a sad day for American capitalism – the greatest generator of middle class wealth in the history of the world.
Despite the disdain of your greenie and progressive friends, many of us conservatives are long time supporters of (X)EVs for strategic reasons, nothing neocon about it. The same holds true for this nation’s dire need for a massive nuclear energy program instead of the massive capital redundance of windmills and solar cells. You might not be able to afford electricity for your Volt. Oh – you are a neurosurgeon? plenty money? You may just be another government employee in a few short years so you might not have all the beanos you expected.

Welcome to
ObUAWma
O
MotoRs
L
D
statik Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:45 pm

Ok, who is penning these threads now. Tom Wolfe? Are you going to take up yet another career or hobby Lyle? Lyle Dennis…author. You weave quite a yarn there my friend. (=

Nice piece, I enjoyed it.

I personally don’t share your optimism of a restructured GM/Chrysler leading the charge, and I think we are a long way away from the bottom (or people flocking to EVs anytime soon) but I do believe they (GM) are a part of the electric revolution, and that it is indeed coming.
—-
Side note: Is it just me, or does that picture remind anyone else of a ‘Deep Thought’ by Jack Handey.

My personal fav:

“One thing kids like is to be tricked. For instance, I was going to take my little nephew to Disneyland, but instead I drove him to an old burned-out warehouse. “Oh, no,” I said. “Disneyland burned down.” He cried and cried, but I think that deep down, he thought it was a pretty good joke. I started to drive over to the real Disneyland, but it was getting pretty late.”

Closely followed by:

If a kid asks where rain comes from, I think a cute thing to tell him is “God is crying.” And if he asks why God is crying, another cute thing to tell him is “Probably because of something you did.”
Texas Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:47 pm

Of course there is one burning question that needs to be answered – is battery technology good enough to support the transition at this stage in the game (gas still being cheap)?

Do we have to wait for the price of fossil fuels to go up a bit more? Maybe one more financial crisis caused by dwindling petroleum reserves? I know one thing for sure, we as a civilization have not spontaneously advanced enough to make the right choices on our own. It’s not in our history, not in our culture and not in our buying habits. We are bred consumers and that’s what we do. We buy and do so with little or no concern for tomorrow. Until tomorrow (and Mother Nature) bites us deep enough we will not change. Why would we?
RB Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 6:57 pm

#2 Grant says
Many people have the delusional idea that ‘everything needs to stay like it is’
——————————–

With greatest respect, why be so negative about people? I actually don’t know anybody of any age that holds to the theory that everything needs to stay like it is. Usually “you just don’t want to change” is used as a kind of verbal hatchet to chop at people who disagree with the speaker on the merits of a particular change.

And I don’t know anyone who is against the idea of an electrically powered car. It is the reverse —> most people wish there would be some, so they could see them and compare them to whatever else is available. That’s not to say that they will automatically endorse the Volt or whatever, but people would like for it to be available.

Have you been to Disney World and seen the Carousel of Progress? It was originally introduced at the New York World’s fair and is one of the most viewed shows of all time. In a series of segments it goes through the changes in the USA since about 1900. They have been huge and positive, not the result of catastrophe and not coming about over the reluctance of the American population.
RB Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:08 pm

#21 Texas said
” I know one thing for sure, we as a civilization have not spontaneously advanced enough to make the right choices on our own.”
————————————————

As I recall, something like this idea was advanced in the 1700s by the federalists, who dis-favored the idea of the US being a republic and specifically opposed Jefferson and his idea that considerable wisdom could be exercised by ordinary people. To the disappointment of the federalists, Jefferson won. The result, while hardly perfect, has been pretty good, and most likely much better than if the federalists still were running things.
Zen Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:10 pm

#12 I B Smart says – Lunatic Fringe at work on this site, dats for sure.
——————————————————–
It appears you are correct. Many here hold widely different opinions, both left and right. Most make their auguments wirh clarity and passion. A very few posters prefer to roll about in the mud.

A new poster going by the name “andrino.aa” told another poster with whom he disagreed “Daniel, don’t cry please” – what a f*cking jerk ! No debate, just insults. Andrino.aa just invalidated himself by acting like a complete jerk. If you cannot argue your case, try to dehumanize the other side.

BTW andrino – don’t like being called a jerk? Then maybe you shouldn’t be dishing it out. If you’re angry, use arguments, not insults. We old-timers here tend to take insult-throwing posters, and put them in the troll bucket with the other trolls. Let’s keep it civil.
John S. Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:19 pm

#12 I B Smart says “If you swapped all 200 million american cars with a Volt we would still be heavily dependent on oil. Failure to do the math makes EV enthusiasts look like those global warming fanatics.”

You make a good point, however, for me the issue is not so much with the use of “oil” but to the use of imported oil from our enemy’s. It is a matter of national security and I think we are currently fighting 1 war to secure oil and I don’t want to see more in the future.

The Volt is not a silver bullet but it is a turning point that has caused ALL of the major manufacturers to come up with there own EV concepts just in case this thing takes off. It will take off and I only hope I live to see the day we can end our need for more Canadian tar sands oil.

NPNS
Shawn Marshall Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:19 pm

ObUAWma
_____O
_MotoRs
_____L
_____D

Sheety Sheety Bang Bangs for Sale Cheap!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Some models run downhill on hot air!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BillR Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:23 pm

#9 Daniel,

Well said.

As Mark Twain said, if the opposite of Pro is Con, does that mean the opposite of Progress is Congress? I fear government intervention.

No auto company has more technology or better engineers than GM. They make the best trucks and SUV’s in the world, but unfortunately, that is where they have focused. Now, with oil pricing so volatile and with the construction industry flat (some of the biggest pickup truck customers), GM has to scramble to get back into smaller autos.

GM will have some great new vehicles in the coming years, IMO, including E-REV trucks and SUV’s (they were involved with the Razor Hummer, I believe). It’s just too bad that a combination of factors lead to this situation.

Let’s hope the guberment sells its shares and let’s GM get on with the job of innovating.
RB Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:30 pm

wsj.com says now “GM will file bankruptcy papers at 8 a.m. Monday in New York’s Southern District.”
Steve Martin Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:31 pm

Excellent, well written story!
Shawn Marshall Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:32 pm

BillR – wish you were right but I’ll take a 50 cent bet they won’t get out without a massive public negative reaction at the polls.

#10 Jason Hendler = Son, do you think Unions were allowed to strike in Nazi Germany or Bolshevik Russia? Heavens to Purgatory Dude.
Schmeltz Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:35 pm

I enjoyed reading that Lyle. Well said!
CorvetteGuy Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:38 pm

I have to disagree in part.

I see people everyday who want to buy a new car, but they can’t. Not unless they can afford to pay interest rates up to 25.00% APR. Sometimes higher! The greed of the banks has to end, or at least be controlled.

The ‘Credit Score’ system needs to be overhauled. I could sell 6 extra cars per day if it were more flexible. And since I’m wishing for rainbows, it would be nice if consumers understood it’s the banks screwing them. Not the dealers.
autoguy Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:41 pm

Collapse of Auto Industry?

Ummm. No.

More like Collapse of garbage that is GM.

About time too.
Zach Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:43 pm

GI JOEEEEEEEE!!!
Kevmark58 Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 7:57 pm

Stop with the Socialism scare tactics and BS. Our government is trying to save Capitalism itself…..nuff said.
Will Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:04 pm

I almost don’t even want to post as this seems to have gotten so politicized.

Well, I have a disagree just a little on the underlying theme of this post. The internal combustion engine, and our dependence on oil, in the end, will not change all that much. There are some people who HAVE to drive those big gas guzzling trucks. There are plenty of people in Texas who haul cattle, horses, etc, and they won’t be doing it with a volt, or a prius.

The trucking industry will not change. Electric cars just can not move goods from one side of the country to the other as quickly as gasoline. Unless we want to spend about a trillion dollars to build a super network of electric rail systems to deliver goods all over the country, we will still be relying on 18 wheelers for 90% of our shipping. Oh wait…maybe we’ll just borrow that trillion and do it anyway. Any word yet on who is going to bail out the Feds when they can’t pay their bills anymore?
BlackSun Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:06 pm

Daniel and BillR, calm down. The U.S. has never been a free market. If you think so, you’re delusional. We’re just shifting away from the old military-fossil-fuel gang bang. All this will blow over. It’s creative destruction and necessary. Lyle is right.

Hopefully “Idiot America” will die along with its old externalizing corporate dinosaurs.

The future is in companies like Interface Carpets and Vestas. GM will become green and profitable, and be sold back to shareholders at a tidy profit to the taxpayer. So you can drop the pitchforks now.

If the old leadership had acted rationally instead of focusing on Escalades and Yukons, the government would never have had to step in. The writing was on the wall for nearly a decade, and Wagoner, and yes even Lutz ignored it. Rah, rah, drill, baby, drill.

Long live the electric car–death to the smoking, belching dinosaurs of yesteryear.
Will Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:09 pm

Kevmark58,

Capitalism = private ownership of the means of production of goods and services

Socialism = public ownership of the means of production of goods and services

Do you actually believe that they are trying to save Capitalism WITH Socialism?

Remember, those who trade Liberty for security deserve neither. The Capitalist would say let them go bankrupt. That would leave a void, which would be filled by another company.

If GM went away, people wouldn’t stop buying cars. Ford would start selling a lot more, that’s all. Too big to fail is just the governments way of selling a power grab. A Monumental Power grab.

Let’s not even consider the fact that it’s COMPLETELY unconstitutional.
LauraM Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:15 pm

#32 CorvetteGuy

I think that at this point the banks just don’t have the money to lend. They all have major capitalization issues. Unfortunately, as your experience shows, it’s going to be difficult to see a real economic recovery until that changes.
LauraM Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:22 pm

#36 Will

I agree that we aren’t going to eliminate our usage of foreign oil anytime soon. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to reduce it as much as possible! And electric cars are a step in the right direction. Not everyone needs to haul cattle or transport goods across the country.

I agree with you about the national debt. However, I think that we would be better off spending the trillion on an electric rail system than several other things we’re currently spending money on. It would be an investment with a payoff, and a long term return. Like borrowing money to start a business.
Dave K. Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:23 pm

GM seriously needs to move toward E-REV on most models. Why?

Because continuing to manufacture Accord-like and Maxima-like cars with 2.4L gasoline engines isn’t getting the job done. Plans are for a 1.4L micro car. Wasn’t this done by Honda and Toyota a couple of years back during the fuel price ramp up and $4 gasoline crisis? Will the world switch from Fit and Yaris to Cruze and Spark? Will the world abandon Mini Cooper and Smart? Does the world market demand these GM cars?

Gasoline will rise above $3.00 per gallon by August 2009. And reach $3.50 per gallon by August 2010. People will again be buying smaller cars. Some will revert back to scooters. Some will pay $30,000 for the latest 50 mpg hybrid. The rest will look to electric drive E-REV cars which offer previously unheard of mpg.

2010 world sales forecast?

Larger gasoline cars and trucks 25% = 3% for GM
Mini cars, 90 hp gasoline 25% = 2% for GM
Scooters, E-bikes, hybrid cars 25% = 2% for GM
E-REV and EV 25% = 10% for GM

=D~
Will Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:27 pm

#40 Laura,

I didn’t mean in any way that we shouldn’t make the move to electric cars. I’ve been saving my money for the volt since summer 07 and I’m #510 on the waiting list that’s over 45,000 now. I’m a HUGE fan of the movement to electrify the automobile, as it will help us to reduce the amount of oil we import and hence lessen the amount of money we send to the middle east.

My only point is that we shouldn’t think that the electrification of the automobile by itself will solve our oil dependency.
Grant Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:27 pm

Maybe I did come across as too negative, I didn’t mean catastrophe is needed, I meant displacement from equilibrium is needed. Not the same thing. For example, you don’t have to have a mass extinction to move forwards. You can have gradual shifts too.

What I meant by people complaining about change isn’t reference to their opinions, it’s the unwillingness to change habits with a changing situation. For example, when New Orleans happened, I knew several people who said “This will be ok if it’s solved in a reasonable period.” I asked what that was, and most said “A week.” I’ve had a lot of problems in my area with many of my acquaintances refusing to alter their lifestyles in any way, and they suffer for it (for example, driving around town for the fun of it during three dollar gas, and then missing payments on their card). The advantage of this ‘half way’ tech like EREV is that it will help people who have trouble with lifestyle changes begin to adapt, by letting them do most of what they have done before while offering a way to adjust habits later. You can use the Volt to drive all over. Or you can start measuring out your trips to maximize the all electric range, and start saving. It’s a benefit.

Sorry if I sounded too negative, I thought it was a positive thing. Yes, times are tough. But they can lead to better things!
JEC Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:28 pm

Doc,

Have you been tapping into your prescriptions meds?

I am not sure what your point of this post was, but it has that distinct odor of a type of grass that used to be very popular with the baby boomer generation.

For instance:
“These destructive transformational events take place on many levels, such as the collapse of societies or ecosystems, the extinction of dinosaurs, or even as the big bang gave rise to the universe”

Comparing the demise of the auto industry with the big bang? Lets keep this in perspective.

Or:
“Whenever in the history of humankind and industrial progress a new transformational technology has arisen, its ascent has brought with it the demise of that which was before it.”

Ok, your analogy of the typewriter or horse & buggy being replaced is correct, but the demise of the auto industry has little to nothing to do with the electric car. Where did you derive this from?

This had to be the strangest post I have read since I began with blog way back when (?).

\scratching my head, wondering if maybe someone at GM has taken over Lyle’s body….
Larry McFall Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:33 pm

Praise the Lord! Is this GM doing this piece on [The Era of the Combustion Engine maybe coming to an end]? All said and done, the electric vehicle as the proposed design of “Volt” is of the Now Future, not tommorow. If GM can keep their business sound without trying to make everybody super wealthy, the VOLT will catch on.

There are many that cannot imagine driving a vehicle that does not have the roar of that powerful, Internal Combustion Engine. A lot of them are young and will in-deed, adjust to the times. I just hope that the VOLT is in the very near future.

Lets make GM stand for Grand Move, with VOLT leading the way to the Grand Move setting the standard. I love the VOLT Technical Concept with the small combustion Engine driving a generator with batteries powering traction motors.
Guy Incognito Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:35 pm

From the Collapse of the Auto Industry Shall Rise the Next Generation of Hybrid: The Volt

=D~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~_-=
DonC Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:37 pm

Some concern about government involvement in GM is warranted. A few months ago a unsupervised bankruptcy was unthinkable. The economy was just too fragile. Now things have calmed down and it’s conceivable you might be able to find another solution. The solution isn’t obvious but it is at least possible, and it would be nice if some serious alternatives were presented.

On the other hand, let’s put this in perspective. We ended up “owning” Iraq because we had a president who went off the deep end. That cost a couple of trillion dollars, a lot of lives, and we’re still trying to figure out how to get out now. Not to mention Gitmo, torture, and Abu Ghraib, This GM thing is peanuts in comparison. A hundred billion tops, maybe nothing if things work out. Jobs saved rather than lives lost, and the big issue is whether the bondholders are being treated fairly. As for an exit plan, it’s a whole lot easier to sell shares in a publicly traded company than it is to extract hundreds of thousands of troops from the Middle East. On balance, I just can’t get too worked up about it.
JEC Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:40 pm

DaveK
“GM seriously needs to move toward E-REV on most models. Why? ”
=====================================================
People will, in general only buy a car that they love for various “car reasons”, such as engine size, looks, cool factor, or price.

If someone can make a $13,000 car that meets your needs you will buy it. If someone sells a $17,000 that meets your needs, but also tickles some fancy, you will likely buy it. If someone can make a $30,000 car that meets your needs, tickles your fancy a little more, but is not economically feasible, then they will not buy it. Instead they buy that $17,0000 car.

You can sell an overpriced car to anyone who has lots of cash, and it tickles his fancy. Problem is the majority of people do NOT have lots of cash, therefore will/cannot buy an overpriced car.

If generation 2+ of the E-rev can bring the price in line with similiarly equiped ICE vehicles, then things will change. And like many on this site have already said, you need gen 1 to get to gen 2.

I await gen 2 or 3 with great anticipation. I have given up on buying an electric, hybrid, or EREV for now. I must replace my aging car, but nothing currently or foresee ably meets my needs.
RB Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:49 pm

#43 Grant — Thanks for the further comments. I now understand a lot better what you mean, and these are good points. As you said “Yes, times are tough. But they can lead to better things!”
statik Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 8:55 pm

#22 RB said:

Have you been to Disney World and seen the Carousel of Progress? It was originally introduced at the New York World’s fair and is one of the most viewed shows of all time. In a series of segments it goes through the changes in the USA since about 1900. They have been huge and positive, not the result of catastrophe and not coming about over the reluctance of the American population.
===========================

I’m pretty sure I put up a ditty or two about the Carousel of Progress here when I was there a couple weeks ago. But it is ‘retro’ awesome, lol.

It is also a great place to get out of the blazing heat, hide from the masses and enjoy 20 mins of sweet, sweet down time. (and I have a shot of me and the animated narrator…huzzah!)

Sidenote: I wonder if all threads are now going to evolve into a downward spiral of political banter and one-liners?
kdawg Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 9:06 pm

Have we officially ran out of things to talk about the Volt car?

Andrew, Tony, Frank, Denise, (even Fritz) thow us a bone! How’s the IV’s going?
charlie h Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 9:20 pm

One take on the Volt from the WSJ:

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/05/29/would-gms-bankruptcy-derail-the-chevy-volt/

This was interesting, too… The NYT takes a stab at estimating just how big the taxpayer gift to GM really is:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/29/business/29views.html?_r=1&ref=business

Anyway, when one looks at the auto industry and observes:
- The Insight and Civic Hybrid with IMA and the Insight appears to be an unqualified sales success;
- 5 or 6 Models of Toyotas with HSD, including the successful Prius going to a half million cars produced/year (and a BEV in advanced development and several hundred Rav4-EVs still on the road);
- The Ford hybrid systems Fusion and Escape on the market selling as briskly as Ford builds them;
- The iMiev on the cusp of serious production;
- The Tesla actually in production and selling, albeit at low volume and with an arguably strange battery configuration;

then one realizes that it’s clear that we don’t need either a rebuild of the auto industry or GM to get gas-electric and then fully electric cars onto the market. The progressive companies with manufacturing expertise, a desire to make the future theirs and a willingness to take smart risks ARE bringing us to the future.

The winners are doing it without losing their shirts or begging bailouts from the Feds.
andrino.aa Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 9:46 pm

Zen, do you know the meaning of sarcasm? Does my posting refer to you? Lighten up man. Did you at least analyse what Daniel said?
It was a cry of one losing his identity. You need to get less serious.
ThombDbhomb Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 9:59 pm

I wonder how bankruptcy will affect my Volt’s price tag. The new “good” GM will have less overhead than the old GM. Will the new “good” GM pass their savings along to me?
Dave K. Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 10:05 pm

JEC 48,

People will, in general only buy a car that they love for various “car reasons”, such as engine size, looks, cool factor, or price.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’ve owned over a dozen cars and many motorcycles. These cars range from 4cyl Toyota and Opel to Ford V8 and Mopar V8. I will not revert back to a mini box vehicle.

My goal is to sell my motorcycle and 4 cyl truck. I am not at all interested in a 20 mpg gallon hybrid Escalade? Or a Yaris-like snail mobile.

It has come down to maintaining what I own now until either a mid size car or small truck is available with electric drive and 80+ mpg.

The Volt features comfortable size, BMW style and tech items, 6 cylinder power, quiet ride, and the ability to control personal gasoline use. The Volt ownership will cost $5000 more (out the door) than a hybrid gasoline burner in which the driver must feather foot their daily commute or pay the OPEC tax.

=D~
Adam Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 10:15 pm

Reminds me of a song, Alanis Morsitte, “Ironic”. -Win the lottery, and died the next day….. Well, Gm and Chrysler aren’t dead, but close enough. I wonder what they were thinking, gas going to stay cheap forever, and no need to do anything about the polution, I was going to just say air, but all forms in general.

It’s about time they do something about the problems they face!
James E Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 10:32 pm

Lyle – well put – Drastic times promote drastic changes. This site experienced the same thing. When gas prices hit the $4 per gallon mark; people were joining the waitlist by the hundreds per day. Then gas prices dropped below $2 per gallon and the waitlist is slowly climbing. By the way will GM honor this list? Thanks again,

NPNS!
carcus1 Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 11:07 pm

Central planning vs the freedom to choose

1. Well designed hybrids have proven themselves to be effective in reducing fuel consumption.

2. Lightweight BEV’s have the potential of being cheap, nearly maintenance free, and using no gas. If you can manage your range anxiety (onboard gps, charging stations, 2nd car for long trips, quick change batteries, etc…) then you’ll get a big $ payback. (imo)

3. EREV’s have the potential of . . . of. . . .. . . . .
……….

……..

?

Well, . . we don’t know. Stlll just one big freakin’ question mark at this point.

And what if number 3 doesn’t appeal to the market? What if it can’t effectively compete against the other technologies? GM doesn’t even have plans for numbers 1 and 2.

Some want fuel efficient ICE. Some want hybrids. Some want trains. Some want to live next to their work. Some want ethanol. Some want BEV’s. Some want parallel hybrids. Some want series/parallel hybrids. Some want Series hybrids. Some want plug in hybrids. Some want to telecommute. Some want to bicycle to work. Some want electric bikes.

This is what I love about America. The freedom to choose. Not having something rammed down my throat or stolen out of my wallet. I like living in a country that understands capitalism. Living in a country that protects the free market where I can buy what I want. . . not what the central planners think I need.

I DO NOT buy the “save GM to save the Volt to save the world” logic here. How about we just support the free market and then YOU can go out and buy whatever technology suits YOU.

/support HR 1207 — call or write your congressman
https://writerep.house.gov/writerep/welcome.shtml
Frank D Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 11:11 pm

Man never seems to act proactively. The electric car and the support of mass transit will ultimately thrive as it should have decades ago. Better late than never…
popurls.com // popular today Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 11:19 pm

popurls.com // popular today…

story has entered the popular today section on popurls.com…
koz Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 11:21 pm

“…a catastrophic rupture of the car industry…”

Great surgeon…I mean surmon.

Since KDawg at #51 asked, I’m reposting:

Going off topic since the fanancials have been done to…

Debate keeps resurfacing in the threads about ER (or RE as I prefer) mode MPG, Cd, etc. I think we have enough information to calculate these within a reasonable amount of certainty if we take the latest comments from the engineers (not Lutz or some obscure reference) as accurate:

-Per Nick Zeilinksi, GM’s Director of Advanced Technology Vehicle Engineering, the Volt is achieving 40 miles AER on city and highway EPA schedules. http://gm-volt.com/2009/04/24/the-chevy-volts-electric-range-is-40-miles-in-both-highway-and-city-driving/

-ICE should be at least 35% efficient if Atkinson cycle is assumed and in Volt use should average more than 30%, assume 33% (Prius THS II max BSFC 37%). I know, I know Carcus1.. you don’t accept this but it would be monumentally foolish for GM not to use Atkinson.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brake_specific_fuel_consumption

-Automotive gasoline has a potential 36.6KWh/gal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline

-The generator is 95% efficient
http://www.teslamotors.com/efficiency/how_it_works.php

-Most of the generator power will go directly to the working load but we will assume 15% goes into the battery

-The battery AER discharge cycle is 8KWh as has been consistantly conveyed by GM.

Using the above information and assumptions the expect KWh/gal out of the generator is:
36.6 * .33 * .95 = 11.47KWh/gal

15% goes in/out of the battery (90% each way):
11.47 – (11.47 * .15) + (11.47 *.15 * .9 * .9) = 11.14KWh/gal

So, based on Nick Zeilinksi’s affirmation that the Volt will achieve at least 40 miles AER on one EPA schedule and slightly better on the other:
AER: 40miles/8KWh = 5 miles/KWh energy consumption
AND
ER: 11.14KWh/gal * 5 miles/KWh = 55.7 miles/gal

Based on above assumptions for Atkinson ICE energy efficiency and Volt’s stated energy use, EPA CIty schedule and highway schedule should return 55.7MPG on one and slightly better on the other.

This seems pretty straightforward. Am I missing something? Maybe Dan Petite or a motorhead can speak to the assumed 33% efficiency for the ICE, but otherwise it is pretty clear what we can expect.

So what is the Cd? Do we really care if it is lower or higher than the Prius’ if the Volt achieves 5miles/KWh? If you are really interested, you can look at the highway schedule and use 5miles/KWh to back into a reasonable assumption of what the CdA is.
Eric E Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 11:33 pm

Well said.

Very well said Lyle.
MarkyMark Says:
May 31st, 2009 at 11:57 pm

Nevermind.I take back my vent,because none of this is affordable to someone making $15.00 bucks an hour and putting into a 401k.You guys have a great time with your new Volts…………….
CorvetteGuy Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:06 am

@51 kdawg
Have we officially ran out of things to talk about the Volt car?

Boy, I hope not. If Lyle posts just 1 topic per day until the VOLT hits the showrooms, there is still a lot to talk about. Even more since it sounds like many who follow this site will be waiting for the less expensive EREV Chevy Cruze, or possibly the insanely expensive Cadillac Converj. I sure hope the economy turns around enough for me to get one of those! But I think I’ll be in the lineup for the Cruze.

I still think Lyle should go for a magazine publication.
Nathan Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:09 am

I for one welcome our new automotive overlords.
Anthony BC Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:14 am

JEC #48 – “I await gen 2 or 3 with great anticipation. I have given up on buying an electric, hybrid, or EREV for now. I must replace my aging car, but nothing currently or foresee ably meets my needs.”

Ditto!! Just bought a new roll of duct tape to keep the old baby running!!

NPNS, GO EV!
CDAVIS Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:15 am

______________________________________________________
“The New GM”… should be renamed to VOLTEC.

Get it done Voltec Program Team!
______________________________________________________
Arch Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:16 am

There is more oil to be found. As the price goes higher it will be found. Right now there are a lot of games going on. We have crude that is setting off our shores. The price of new oil is going up when we can not even process what we have. Its a game folks. JMHO

Take Care
Arch
Shaft Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:23 am

#61 – Nice calculation, Koz Looks OK to me.

Koz (or anyone), do you know (or can you surmise) what the charging rate (in kw) will be when the ICE is bringing the battery back to the CDP? We know from Lyle’s test drive of the mule that the charge rate can be as high as 3.3kw from a (220V?) plug, because his GM sidekick said so.

As for the topic of this thread: Great prose, Lyle, and a genuine attempt to lift our spirits … but frankly the whole thing is still a little depressing.

So, I’m avoiding reality with tech talk. I always find that uplifting
Ed M Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:33 am

Tonight I watched for the third time “who killed the electric car”. Okay so I don’t get out much. But I was amazed at what I had missed the first couple of times and George Bush’s role against the electrification of the automobile.
He took action against the air quality folk in California, promoted H (a techniology that will be dead in the water for many years) and his governments promotion of the behemoth Hummer.
It was fitting to watch this again on the eve of GM’s bankruptcy declaration.
Tom Hobbs Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:33 am

I agree that there will be a big change in the auto industry. The change will be bigger than many people think. A gas powered car has 1,500 moving parts in its drive train. An electric car has 50.Eletric motors hardly ever fail or go “off Tune”.
Will we need distributors or specialized trained mechcanics?
For our auto industry to survive in the long term we must speed up both the rate of technological change and its implementation.
To do this the auto industry should emulate the IBM PC and have a “plug and play” capability for easy change-over to new technologically superior components. Why fiddle with the onboard computer when hardly any mechanics know how to do it?
If the auto makers agressively persue the challenge of replacing mechanical complexity by computer hardware and software then we should see average cost reductions of 15 to 20% per year..
The model T increased its market share because it kept on costing less.
May we continue to live in interesting times!
Ed M Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:57 am

I found this article on the site below. The author claims that li-ion battery power can be increased 10 fold.

http://www.wired.com/autopia/tag/electric-vehicles/
solo Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 1:46 am

Time-line for the next 10 years brought to you by….. ME! I typed fast so forgive any misspellings.

2009, Companies struggle, many go under, unemployment reaches 10%, some areas hit 15%, many states, (California, New York, and Illinois) go deeper into debt.

2010, Economy makes a MODEST recovery but gas prices hit $4.00 a gallon greatly constraining economic growth. CNN and MSNBC pronounce the recession is over and the world is now a wonderful place and heading in the right (meaning LEFT) direction.
Unemployment drops to 8.5% by year end.

2011, Stock market starts climbing, G.M. introduces the VOLT but due to a number of production and design glitches it gets a bad reputation. Unfortunately, G.M. denies any problems but in reality many cars are not running right or breaking down. A woman in Minnesota gets killed when the power cord shorts out while she plugs it in. Many other companies delay release of their electric cars due to the perceptions of electric cars caused by the VOLT’s problems. These problems are perpetuated by CNN and MSNBC.

2012, economy is still fundamentally sick, Deficit spending no longer helps prop up the economy. Numerous Senators (Dems and Reps) get caught up in a multi-billion dollar scandal associated with kickbacks on stimulus projects. The GOP tries to tie Obama to the scandal but with the help of CNN and MSNBC, it fails. The GOP produce an incompetent idiot to run for president but a very competent VEEP. The press hammers the VEEP and every grocery store rag sends their shark reporters out to interview his kindergarten teachers looking for dirt.

During the presidential debate, a domestic terrorist, born in USA but of middle east heritage (His grandmother was a Muslim born in Israel), shoots at Obama but misses and hits the GOP candidate, killing him. The Secret Service returns fire killing the shooter instantly before the CIA can waterboard the little bastard to find out his motivations. Utter chaos engulfs the country that lasts till the November elections. Obama wins re-election by a narrow margin over the competent GOP candidate. Obama wins the electoral vote but not the popular vote because a third party liberal candidate, a female Holywood celebrity and a star on Desperate Housewives, enters the race and splits the democratic vote. CNN and MSNBC declare “The American People Have Spoken” and all Americans agree with the Obama administration and are tickled pink on how he has run the country. The GOP is in shambles and struggles to rebuild. Conspiracy theories on both sides try to figure out who was behind the assignation. The GOP get blamed in most of these theories. The left believe the GOP seriously tried to kill Obama. The FBI investigation find the shooter was pissed at Obama for failing to back the Palestinian State. He was also pissed because U.S. government gave the Israeli government key intelligence information that got some of his terrorist relatives killed in a military operation conducted by Israel against Hamas. None of it matters and the GOP grand conspiracy gets more play than a hooker at the Bunny ranch.

2013, the stock market soars, and cars begin to sell again. Hybrid/electric cars take a bigger share of the market but cannot break 7% market share because of the dramatic rise in the cost of raw materials for the batteries (Lithium, mineral salt, whatever). Hybrids are sold by all automakers at a loss to meet the new CAFE regulations. The demand for ALL new vehicles also soars, fueled by 32 million ‘new legal’ illegal immigrants and the generally improving stock market. Gas is $5.50 a gallon but people have adjusted to the price of fuel. The percentage of oil imported into the U.S. reaches 80%. The U.S. debt is now 18 trillion. G.M. / Chrysler / Ford cannot meet demand for their products because they eliminated half of their production facilities. Japanese, Korean, and Chinese carmakers rush to fill the gap. In 2013 18.9 million vehicles are sold in the U.S.

A second huge scandal, tied to the first scandal involving kickbacks from the 2009 stimulus bill breaks the news. Apparently numerous senators funneled stimulus and TARP money overseas to Chinese car companies. The scandal is so big it cannot be squashed by CNN and MSNBC because a very cute little girl that got killed in a Chinese made crappy quality car is all over Nancy Grace for almost a year. The poor design is directly traced to a group of senators that demanded the car be rushed into production without adequate testing so it could be ready in time to fill the pent up demand in the U.S. Nancy harps on these Senators and many are brought up on charges. Nancy Grace then goes after some big shots in the Chinese auto industry. George Anthony, Casey Anthony’s father, shoots and kills Nancy Grace. The gun he used is a Chinese made AK-47. George turns states evidence on the guy he bought the gun from. Turns out the gun seller is a Chinese spy who was sent over to silence Nancy Grace before the scandal (now called Cherry-gate after the car that killed the little girl), did any more damage to their emerging car business in the U.S.

2014 is a very quiet year. Most troops are pulled out of Iraq. The middle east in general is spooky quiet. Iraq and Saudi Arabia are pumping oil at record levels. Environmentalists are screaming for a gas tax to push fuel to 10 dollars a gallon but with gas at 6.00 dollars a gallon there is no political will. There are now millions of wind mills producing electricity in the U.S. and they now account for about 20% of all electric output. The price of electricity plummets because of the electric glut. Savvy Holywood types buy electric cars at a super premium price to take advantage of the cheap electricity but for the most part nobody can afford an electric car or a strong hybrid like the Volts because anything with wheels is now selling at sticker and hybrids are selling at 25% above sticker. A Volt like car now lists for about $50,000 and sells for close to $60,000. All tax incentives have expired because electric/hybrid cars are now considered mainstream.

An unintended consequence of the CAFE standards has caused half ton trucks to become so underpowered that nobody buys them. Suburban warriors with boats and campers now move up to the new 7/8 ton class, just above the 10,000 Ib. rating needed to escape CAFE. They are powered by a new generation of clean diesels. The emission technology however takes away some power and hurts fuel economy. To compensate, Dodge now offers the Cummins ISD engine, 9 liters with 400 hp. Ford and G.M. follow with their own super 7/8 ton diesel trucks. 7/8 Ton super SUV’s built on a similar frame start becoming popular. They weigh 8000 pounds empty, surpassing the Escelades and Suburbans of the past.

2015 starts out good. G.M. Chrysler, and Ford are profitable but have a much smaller share of the market. People are buying houses and cars in record numbers. Much of the new buying binge is attributed to TARP, and 2 stimulus packages as well as run-away spending by the federal government. Most people are now on a government managed health care plan. It is only partly paid for with payroll deductions by those who work. Nobody can be denied joining the health care program however, even if you don’t have a job. Because of this, the plan is grossly under funded and is being propped up by deficit spending. Nancy Pelosi becomes a front runner for the Democratic nomination for president. She has Obama’s backing even though he hates her and thinks she is incompetent. Almost no company offers health insurance. Only Fortune 500 corporations offer a supplemental health care plan that pays extra so you can actually get an MRI or even an X-RAY without waiting 3 months. The best doctors around the country start working for private health corporations that cater ONLY to people with one of these supplemental health plans. The rest of us have to wait to see a doctor.

The economy is teetering in early 2015 and by late 2015 it is obvious to everybody the world is in for an economic meltdown. North Korea invades the south and mows over the south Korean army in weeks. The U.S. forces in South Korea only number a few thousand and are wiped out before the air force can evacuate them. South Korea falls to the North and it triggers a major global recession. Key components for the auto industry, including hybrid batteries come form Korea, as well as computer chips for just about everything are no longer available. Automobile production drops to less than half world wide because key electronic components are simply not available. Appliances, computers of all types, even toys disappear from shelves. Companies scramble to find replacement vendors but ramp up takes months. Meanwhile, The U. S. sends 3 carriers to the shore of North Korea and start bombing the hell out of the north. However, North Korea has invested heavily in surface to air missile defenses and the F16, and F18 are sitting ducks, over half the air wings are lost in the first few days. Only a few F22 fighters meet with success over North Korea because of their stealth design makes them much less visible to enemy radar. The U.S. puts in an emergency order for 300 new F22’s but since much of their avionics components were outsourced to Korean manufacturers, production stalls. The North Korean army meets stiff resistance in Soul from the remnants of the South Korean Army and freedom fighters assisted by CIA operatives. The North becomes so frustrated with their losses, they pull their troops 60 miles out of the city and nuke it, killing almost 1 million. The U.N. holds an emergency meeting that accomplishes nothing. Gas hits 15 dollars a gallon. The U.S. dollar, normally bolstered by such events, falls dramatically in value. The federal government can no longer sell bonds to anybody at any interest rate.

By 2016 unemployment is at 18%, Inflation is at 30% and the GOP sweep the House, Senate, and take back the White House.

Far right wing members of the GOP want to investigate Obama and Pelosi for campaign contributions traced back to Both South and North Korea. Joe Biden escapes scrutiny because everybody thinks he was to stupid to be involved.

And here we go again……
gray Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 2:00 am

One of the great things about “fundamental market forces” is that they efficiently allocate resources. When the production and distribution of something is not marginally sustainable, it inevitably fails and the resources used for its production are put to better use else where. This is a fundamental law of markets and it is no surprise to see it happening here.
andrino.aa Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 3:01 am

yes Gray, we are heading towards Solyent green, lol. To some degree I agree, but were I differ is in the balance. The market needs to be steered for OUR benefit not for its own sake. Hence I applaud Obama for having the courage to grab this disaster by the horns and guide it. The Volt is coming.
Ken Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 4:02 am

I am sorry (but not surprised) that GM has fallen. I wanted to buy a Hybrid in 2002 but GM or Ford did not offer either a model or a good substitute to the Honda Insight or Toyota Prius. I bought a Prius. I am looking forward to (hopefully buying) a Chevy Volt but I DO NOT WANT ANOTHER DISSAPOINTMENT, like the Chevy Vega, Chevy Covair, Pontiac Fiero, all of which I have owned (or my family has owned) in the past. It will remain to be seen if GM can meet my expectations (which are realistic in quality, engineering and price).

THE BALL IS IN YOUR COURT GM !!!!
DaveP Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 4:03 am

The Polaroid?!?! ALL film is being replaced by digital cameras. That includes everything from movie stock to photographic stock.

Personally, I hope I’m still young enough to enjoy the day when electric vehicles achieve the form they ought to be (for maximum efficiency, of course!). About 600hp all wheel drive with a couple thousand ft-lb of torque.
Dave K. Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 4:46 am

Monday June 1, 2009, 5:19 am EDT

SINGAPORE (AP) — Oil prices blew past $68 a barrel Monday, rising to a new high for the year, helped by gains in Asian stock markets amid hopes that the global slump is easing.

Benchmark crude for July delivery was up $1.78 to $68.09 a barrel by late afternoon in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil prices have almost doubled from below $35 a barrel in March as investors have taken heart from signs a severe recession in the U.S. is slowing. Asian markets rose Monday as surveys showed Chinese manufacturing expanded in May.

http://garfwod.250free.com/volt_2010_front-seat.jpg

=D~
Rashiid Amul Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 5:11 am

Very poetic, Lyle.
Very nice article.
Rashiid Amul Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 5:12 am

Dave K #78

All the more reason why we need to get off of oil.
nuclearboy Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 5:46 am

I wonder how the Government Run (Govt. meddleing will take place) GM with its union rank and file work force will compete with the Chinese capitalists who will surely be brining cheap electric cars to the US market it a few years.
Dave G Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 5:55 am

From the article: The near death of the auto industry is bringing with it the slow death of the combustion engine.
————————————————————————————–
I believe the internal combustion engine has a very long life ahead. It’s gasoline that will have a slow death. The future belongs to EREVs, cellulosic ethanol, and bio-diesel, all of which require an internal combustion engine.

Many people feel EREVs are just a way to transition to a future of pure BEVs. They say new battery technology will make pure BEVs viable. I disagree.

Let’s say we have the perfect battery. It can store enough energy to make an SUV go 200 miles on a charge, and this new perfect battery is capable of being fast charged in 10 minutes. But to charge that much energy in only 10 minutes would require a 500,000 watt connection. That’s enough to vaporize you and a good chunk of your car in an electrical explosion. Remember that people fuel cars with rain and snow dripping all over them. There is no new technology on the horizon that would make this safe. Connecting that much power is inherently dangerous.

So after realizing fast-charging is not possible, many people turn to the battery swapping station idea. You pull into the station, and they swap your battery with a fully charged one in 10 minutes. Beyond the obvious problems (getting a bad pack, cost of swapping stations, lines at swapping stations), there is the issue of the size and shape of the battery becoming standard. This is a big deal. Even if new technology makes battery cells smaller, battery cooling issues alone will force battery packs to be large and heavy. In order to make the car ride well and have good crash safety, different car designs must have different shaped battery packs. So the battery swapping station would have to stock very many types of battery packs, and that wouldn’t be viable economically.

Now look at the possibilities for a gasoline free world using EREVs and ethanol. We all know corn ethanol sucks, but cellulosic ethanol is a lot closer that we’ve been led to believe:
Dollar-a-gallon ethanol plant in U.S. operation next year
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-9928810-54.html
Ethanol from forest mill waste, crop residue, municipal waste, and energy crops from idle farmland can replace up to 35% of our current gasoline use.
http://www.coskata.com/EthanolFeedstockPotential.asp
None of these sources require any additional land.

EREVs can replace 80% of our gasoline consumption, and ethanol can replace 35% of our gasoline consumption. Together that’s 115% – more than enough to completely eliminate gasoline, and that’s using our existing infrastructure of 110v home outlets and liquid fuel filling stations. What’s not to like?

The internal combustion engine has a long bright future ahead.
RB Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 6:19 am

In a more technical aside, Motor Trend has an interesting graphic about drag and gives Cd numbers for Volt too in the article comparing the Insight and Prius (can enlarge):

http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/alternative/112_0905_2010_honda_insight_vs_2010_toyota_prius_comparison_test/photo_21.html

Notably

2009 Prius Cd 0.26
2010 Insight Cd 0.28
2010 Prius Cd 0.25
2010 Volt Cd 0.27 (est)
The main message I get from these numbers is their similarity. No doubt it is easy to do much worse, and very hard to do much better, in a non-exotic car.

The article also shows each car from the side, and they are remarkably similar. The main difference in my eyes is the detail around the tail lights.
CarGuy Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 6:24 am

The idea that the financial collapse of 2 automakers that, when all is said and done, will only make about 1 in 5 new cars will have enough impact to “jump start” electric cars is laughable, and shows how poorly thought-out this is. The electric car (or any other alternative version of the car) only succeeds if enough people want it. The car replaced the horse because people wanted them. The steam car was easier to maintain, cheaper to run, and more powerful than the gas-IC cars at the time, but no one bought them. Just because its better doesn’t mean it will succeed.

The electric car also ignores a few problems around scalability. We can barely keep up with battery production now, how will it work if we need 100x the number of batteries than we need today? How do we get the generating capacity necessary (about 200x what we have today)? How do we get the transmission capacity to get the power to the charging stations (again 200x what we have today)? Yes, people can (and will) invent things to overcome these problem, but you can’t build an industry on the hope that someone else eventually solves your most basic problems for your product.
RB Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 6:28 am

One thing I love about this site is Lyle’s ability to find an optomistic twist in most any news. If the impending government take over strangles medical care, Lyle can become the future Mark LeNeve as really he does it much better. (smile here, just joking)

At times the optimism here tends to some literary overstatement, as in

Whenever in the history of humankind and industrial progress a new transformational technology has arisen, its ascent has brought with it the demise of that which was before it.
Simple examples are how the typewriter was eradicated by the PC,

Yes, typewriters are largely gone. On the other hand before we endorse completely the idea of “the demise of that which was before it”, we might keep in mind that the pencil still is going strong.

That is, even though I like the idea of electrically powered cars, I think the gas powered ones are going to stay around for quite a while. Their ability to put a lot of energy into a small tank is not yet seriously challenged by batteries.
Rashiid Amul Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 6:33 am

#84 RB.

Those are interesting numbers. Do you know the Cd. of the Tesla roadster by any chance?

And, I know this is very subjective, but the 2009 Prius is the ugliest of the four.
RB Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 6:36 am

#51 statik said
I’m pretty sure I put up a ditty or two about the Carousel of Progress here when I was there a couple weeks ago. But it is ‘retro’ awesome, lol.
—————————————————

Yes, you did. That was one of the reasons we went to see it.
Great show (enjoyable but made you think), and indeed a nice cool respite.
RB Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 6:42 am

#55 ThombDbomb said
I wonder how bankruptcy will affect my Volt’s price tag. The new “good” GM will have less overhead than the old GM. Will the new “good” GM pass their savings along to me?
———————————–

As the saying goes, every one that is built will be sold, and we know that the more that are built, the lower the price will become. Unfortunately all we have so far is projects for a very low volume product, so there may be enough demand for that many at a high price. The key question is whether or when New GM will decide to build them in higher volume.
statik Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 7:00 am

#51 statik said
I’m pretty sure I put up a ditty or two about the Carousel of Progress here when I was there a couple weeks ago. But it is ‘retro’ awesome, lol.
—————————————————
#88 RB said:
Yes, you did. That was one of the reasons we went to see it.
Great show (enjoyable but made you think), and indeed a nice cool respite.
=======================
/apologize to your wife and kids for me
(mine won’t even go in with me now, lol)

(=
koz Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 7:04 am

Shaft #70

GM has said there will be several output “levels” for the genset and they will “feather” the engine between these levels. They also have stoplights to deal with and probably don’t want to stop/start the engine every time because it would be too inefficient but there is also regen on the slow down to the light. Just a wag but I’m guessing no more than 16KW max recharge rate. CJS feels it will be limited to 1C (16KW), which seems reasonable enough for Gen1 of the battery.
Joe Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 7:44 am

History will show that Lyle was correct. We are in a new era where vehicles will transform from ICE to electric propulsion. It wont’ happen overnight, but we are at the beginning of a new era. For those individuals who don’t agree, I would recommend you read the book written by Alvin Toffler “Future Shock”. The book is about how and why people generally resist changes. It makes for good reading.

Keep up the good work Lyle!!
Voltless Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 7:47 am

The Chevy Volt is NOT an electric car. The EV1 was an electric car that GM ONLY leased to people, and refused to let them buy, even when offered over a million dollars for one.

The EV1 got 160 MPC (Miles Per Charge), and around this time GM owned the most advanced battery technology (of the day), before they sold it to Texaco.

A car today with the most advance/price efficient battery technology, with other somewhat advanced technologies we have now would get over 600 MPC, and cost around $35,000. At a battery swap station, it would take less than 1 minute to swap batteries, and continue driving.

The Chevy Volt ONLY gets 40 MPC, and was designed primarily for gas use, not electrical. It is a half done answer to this next generation of Prius, that it STILL doesn’t even beat spec wise.

There are fully electric car makers that are working on making fully electric cars for a reasonable price. Tesla is already making a fully electric car for $45,000, less than half the price of their current full electric. They definitely have plans to go far cheaper full size sedan too. Even the $45,000 model from Tesla would easily pay for itself over 3 years of ownership compared to a $20,000 vehicle.
RB Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 7:59 am

#62 koz gives a series of calculations
——————————–

In my opinion, the value you use for ICE fuel efficiency (35%) is too optimistic. If one takes the ICE efficiency to the wheels as 18%, (after a transmission loss of maybe 20%) I agree the number should be better (higher), but my guess would be 25% ICE efficiency in the Volt, not 35%. In the Volt there still is a need for multiple speeds as well as start/stop, and their still will be transmission losses.

Even so, thank you for this interesting and excellent summary.
It is a good starting point.
Dave G Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 8:00 am

#93 Voltless Says: The Chevy Volt ONLY gets 40 MPC, and was designed primarily for gas use, not electrical.
————————————————————————————–
80% of drivers go less than 40 miles per day. For them the Volt is ALL electric. Saying the Volt is designed primarily for gas use – that’s flat out WRONG.
Dave G Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 8:03 am

#94 RB Says: In the Volt there still is a need for multiple speeds as well as start/stop, and their still will be transmission losses.
————————————————————————————–
The Volt has no transmission. There is only a fixed gear. The Volt does not change gears.
Chris Taylor Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 8:04 am

I wish you were right. but sadly history tells me you are wrong.

Will we see electrically powered cars? YES. will we see a real battery electric car? NO. not unless we force them to that is.

The auto industry does not want and will not willingly make us a practical affordable usable electric car. They simply will not do it without force.

They stand too much to lose. You call this a collapse of the auto industry? I call this a planned splat with a backup plan already in place namely us tax payers who stopped buying there filth so now they will FORCE us to pay for there filth via our taxes and we don’t even get a piece of filth to take home with us.

Lets start with the Chevy Volt. a bastardized example of an electric car.

First it costs more than twice what it should.

Second 40mile all electric range.

Consider this. the average HOME BUILT electric car conversion is a regular gas powered car where the home mechanic chops and hacks out the engine and installs an electric motor. Now lithium is too expensive and nimh is illegal (patented by chevron sold to them by GM)

So they used LEAD ACID batteries. yeah the same one starting your car right now basically (not quite same chemistry just bigger versions)

the average cost of this home built conversion is about $10,000

the average RANGE (this is the important part) is these homebuilt conversions is about 40 miles.

Hmmm wait what did I see there. Range of VOLT in EV mode 40 miles

Range of average home built conversion 40 miles.

I simply DO NOT BELIEVE in “coincidences” period. not that kind anyway.

Now what was the range of the EV GM built more than 10 years ago?

120-160 miles.

What was the range of the EV toyota built using a RAV4 chassis 10 years ago using the same NIMH battery GM used?

80-110 miles.

SO let me get this straight. its been over 10 years using NEWER battery tech and the best they could do is 40 miles DOWN from 160 and 110 miles over a decade ago and the cheapest they could do it is $40 grand?

get real.

They could build and release a 100+ mile range 4 person all electric NO GAS ENGINE or GENERATOR car with an aluminum frame and plastic body for under $15,000 right now today if they wanted to.

They refuse. they make too much money off the current infrastructure.

I will tell you what the VOLT is. its a SCAM. a temporary band aid to “passify us” until they can get the kinks worked out of the REAL scam which is Hydrogen Fuel Cells.

you see they finally figured how to make an “electric” green car with almost NONE of the consumer friendly features (name long life almost no maintenance and low cost) by removing the battery and replacing it with a corporate friendly hydrogen fuel cell.

How nice of them.

Problem is hydrogen is taking longer than they expected. the green demand is here BEFORE the Fuel cells are ready.

so they are giving us a band aid. something to MULL us over till they work out the bugs.

They its $7 a gallon 35mpg Hydrogen heaven (massive sarcasm)

yeah thats what a fuel cell car is going to cost to operate.

and off course that ultra high tech fuel cell and its gear will be NON USERS serviceable you can be sure of that.

They can NOT released a USABLE BEV because people would finally learn just how GOOD those things are.

Almost no maintenance.
Virtually no repairs
No corrosion
No Rust
Long Life
Cheap price
Almost NOTHING to operate.
User Friendly.
Powerful and fast.

They will NOT give us this willingly. That NIMH battery would only cost $4500 (as quoted from GM and Ovonics the creators of the battery technology) and it would last IN EXCESS of 250,000 miles probably a lot longer based on actual data from RAV4EV’s on the road still today.

thats over 22 years for the average person who drives 11,000 miles a year.

Aluminum and Plastic do not rust or corrode.
The battery and electric motor are 99.99999% maintenance free
The controller and rest of the equipment is solid state and maintenance free.

No motor No tranny No exhaust No fuel system. No smog system No pollution or epa crap. No alternator No fuel pumps. No tranny pumps. No radiator and cooling system (some electric motors MIGHT need simply cooling)

basically no moving parts except electric motors. its almost all solid state.

when more than half your profit comes from after you sell the car you can see how this would SCARE them and badly.

Let me explain my $15,000 price tag so you know I am not talking out my butt.

Here is how I came up with the price and this is FULL RETAIL not “cost”

We already know they ca build a gasoline car for $8000 toyota and kia have done it and almost still to today with $9,000 cars brand new off the lot. SO thats the base I will use (remember save money ECONOBOX luxury can come later or if you can afford JUST GET the damned tech into our hands)

now take that car and toss out WELL OVER half its expense. Engine Tranny Exhaust Fuel system EPA Pollution Systems Smog systems IE just about everything under the hood and along the bottom of the car can GO. no longer needed.

that is MORE than half the expensive of the car but to be fair and to keep the math easy lets use HALF. so $4000 for the chassis.

The battery pack as quoted by GM and Ovonics almost 10 years ago is $4500

So far we are at $8500 full retail for the car.

Now go check out some electric car commercial websites for home conversions.

You can find an electric motor (good one) for about $2000 a controller for $2000 (this is what controls the power to the electric motor) and a charger for $500 so another $4500 (give or take a couple hundred)

thats $13,000 for an electric car. NOW aluminum costs more money than steel so for the aluminum frame lets give another $2000

$15,000 TO THE CONSUMER full retail price to build an electric car today.

and all it needs is our president and congress to REVOKE the chevron NIMH patent and someone to force the auto makers to start making them.

OWE and that motor controller and charger? thats all prices from HOBBY NICHE industries. IE not mass produced on a large scale.

Just think if they can make those niche small run products THAT CHEAP imagine how cheap a massive auto maker could make them for once really mass produced!

Electric cars really are that SIMPLE. go find a local hobby shop (a real one) open up an electric RC car. you going to see a few components inside.

a Speed controller. An electric motor. A servor for steering and a battery. you will also see a receiver for the radio (this is the DRIVER of the car so its replaced by YOU in a full size car)

Outside of the car you have the transmitter (again thats YOU) and a charger to recharge the batteries.

Its amazing how SIMPLE the devices really are how few components they need.

Well this scales all the way up to full size cars. it really does remain THAT simple for the most part. the same components.

Except our components will be virtually bullet proof. as efficient as an electric car is its still a TON LOAD of power needed to make a 3000 pound hunk of metal go from 0-60mph

that means those components have to DEAL with that kind of power. You can not deal with that kind of power with shoddy construction. IE these parts can take a licking.

that electric motor will EASILY outlive you. so very likely will the controller for the electric motor. Those things just do not tend to break down.

This stuff really scares automakers who do not want cheap long lasting maintenance free cars on the road if they can help it.

Think about that.
dorp7 Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 8:12 am

There may possibly be a typo or three in this sentence (I could be wrong):
“Indeed when GM introduced the Volt is was more public relations than an engineering.”

Love ya, Lyle
RB Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 8:44 am

Rashiid Amul asked
Those are interesting numbers. Do you know the Cd. of the Tesla roadster by any chance?
—————————————————

No I don’t know the value for the Tesla, and I wish I did. If anyone has that information, I hope they post it.

Whatever the Cd, I imagine the Tesla Roadster has a low drag (low Cd A) as the frontal area A likely is significantly smaller, considering how low the car is. That should give the Roadster a significant advantage over “regular” cars, probably including the Volt.
RB Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 8:57 am

#92 Joe says
For those individuals who don’t agree, I would recommend you read the book written by Alvin Toffler “Future Shock”. The book is about how and why people generally resist changes
———————————–

To me the book was more about the complexity of many choices, or “overchoice” as Toffler called it. In any event, there is an economic theory of change, and by that theory the reason people resist change is that it is expensive. For a while productivity declines. One initiates change if one thinks that in the long term the short-term loss will be recovered, and more, but that is a risk. Also the short-term loss requires the use of some accumulated capital to cover in the meantime.

To take an example from ordinary life, suppose you decide one day to change around everything in your bedroom. It takes a while. Then you stumble around to find things in their new places, so every morning you get dressed more slowly, for a while. If things go well, eventually you come to enjoy the new arrangement, and you get dressed faster in the newer and better arrangement. But, there is a possibility that you may never like the new arrangement better, and that’s the risk
kent beuchert Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 9:19 am

I’d like to see how any company forced to pay $125 K per year for “Oabama’s Boys” (uneducated,unskilled) is going to be “lean and mean” ? Sounds like GM is still plenty fat at the bottom and lean in the design and engineering end. A recipe for bankruptcy No 2, coming to a theater near you. Soon. GM’s economics haven’t changed one iota. Getting rid of dealerships didn’t save a dime. And closing plants mean paying off more UW workers. GM hasn’t been reborn – it’s been put on life support.
eurobikedenver Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 9:19 am

“From the Collapse of the Auto Industry Shall Rise the Electric Car”

Dude… Seriously? I haven’t checked in here in a while, but apparently this blog has gone to your head a little too much. Feeling a bit like Nostradamus? Or Yoda…
RB Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 10:14 am

#96 Dave G says
#94 RB Says: In the Volt there still is a need for multiple speeds as well as start/stop, and their still will be transmission losses.
————————————————————————————–
The Volt has no transmission. There is only a fixed gear. The Volt does not change gears.

======================================

Yes, I understand and agree that the electric propulsion motor connects to the wheels as you describe.

My previous comment was not clear. I was speaking to the efficiency number for the ICE as given by koz. The ICE efficiency is downgraded somewhat, I suspect, from that of an ICE running at steadily at optimum rpm by the facts that the ICE operates across various rpms and has to start and stop.
RB Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 10:34 am

President Obama will speak about GM at 11:55 am Eastern.
Keith Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 10:53 am

It is a great day for all of the world when new thinking takes place. I would buy an electric car in a NY minute if one was available at a good price and I would add to the price of the car with some solar panels and batteries. This would get me off of the grid and the oil. Sure I would be paying for an old technology that has just come to market and would be obsolete in just a year or 2 but at least I would be making some money change hands and keep an economic system afloat until the car catches on.

Battery technology is increasing almost as fast as computer technology so don’t think that the heavy, large, slow charging, fire making , low energy batteries that are all that are available now are all that will be available and soon. There will be fuel cells in everything, recharge stations where you never though to look for them, induction mats in parking spots to charge your plug in without plugging it in, and not too far off even cars that drive themselves.

Stay tuned folks, this is going to get really cool really fast now that we have hit this speed bump in time. Iphone, Icar, Ican’twait.
chuck t Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 11:02 am

Good job Jason M! You indeed were the first person to reply to this thread! Grow the f*ck up! But I Digress, flex fuel is a f’n joke! Its a good way for dealers to get another 5k off of you for something that you will never use or is more inefficient than gas. If our dumb country wanted ethanol they would get it from hemp. Its the most efficient and cleanest way to get it and doesn’t run up food prices.

Electric cars are the future! They have been around forever but once again our stupid greedy government takes profits over progress…
Ken Grubb Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 11:11 am

EVs are 75% efficient. ICEs are 20% efficient.
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/FEG/evtech.shtml

The case for EVs is pretty easy to make both in terms of energy consumption and economics.
Lwesson Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 11:27 am

Here in Houston the OIL PEOPLE would giggle over ice cold beers about all the talk about Capitalism and free choice etc. There is NO real competition in oil price as oil is a speculative commodity and there is no real choice in getting transport without oil products.

As per choosing transportation, the main game is in auto transport and the only real game is pumping hydrocarbons/dollars into your car. WHY? Because that is how money is made by those who control the options. Once many options emerge like electric cars then the control over transport costs are lost and money cannot be made by those in OIL. This is BAD. Bad for Oil businesses. Bad for the auto support industries… the whole very involved transportation infrastructure.

That we are seeing some glimmer of light in battery tech is scary to the OIL PEOPLE and their dependents and the auto industry is right there lock step. Now it might take a goose step to kick the auto industry into a new direction. Das Volt. Come to think of it the Volkswagen came about by such direction and was successful despite a war that went very badly.

Carcus1 had a site that connected the dots on the oil industry and that of the auto industry. Got Apollo and Zeus’s attention. Down boys!————Higgins
N Riley Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 11:33 am

I am just now getting to read this. Lyle, are you living in a dream world? Do you really think the auto industry is in ashes and from those ashes will arise a new demand by the American consumer for electric cars? You have got to be completely off your rocker or either you know some Americans I don’t know. The Americans I know are extremely slow at adopting anything new when it comes to cars. Anything revolutionary is viewed with a high level of skepticism. A slow build up of adoption, yes, possibly. And then only if gas prices stay high. People will take the easy, less costly way out every time. If there is a choice. Maybe with Government Motors there will not be a choice. You will have to buy a dinky, small car/truck or a Voltec vehicle.
DriveMojo.com » Will Industry collapse lead to the rise of the electric car? Let’s hope so… Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 11:37 am

[...] Check out WatchMojo’s look a the Volt, and then read more about the new electric car from gm-volt.com: Close observation of recent developments in the automotive sector leads to a certain conclusion; [...]
El coche electrico resurgira la industria automotriz? Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 11:54 am

[...] caos el que permita que el coche eléctrico ayude a la industria a crecer… Mas informacion: From the Collapse of the Auto Industry Shall Rise the Electric Car – Articulo traducido al español aqui Post relacionados » Biografia de Shakira Leer [...]
Jim in PA Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 11:54 am

New Day Rising…
New Day Rising…

Not only is a new day of transportation coming, but this picture reminds me of the cover of a great Husker Du album.
George Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:29 pm

Fundamental market forces of their own right would not have led to a rapid production and adoption of electric cars

Lyle,

I have to disagree with you here. The subversion of fundamental market forces has caused the continuous reliance upon foreign oil that we have now. The market has been subverted at every level of government in order to do so. Intentionally or Unintentionally, the policies of our government and the governments of the oil producing countries has caused this mess. What is a surprise to me is that we continue to call this a free market for vehicles.
Tagamet Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 12:47 pm

I’m guessing that 95% of the posts in this thread made NO mention of the Volt, or it’s likelihood of production.
Kinda sad really. I’m pretty sure Lyle established this site with the goal of promoting the Volt from Concept to Production vehicles. Although it looked like that might have been accomplished, all of a sudden, it’s not such a “done deal”.
Any chance we could get back to the Volt? A discussion of (gasp) Hydrogen fuel cells would at least have some Volt related relevance. (joking there!)
I’ve probably put 95% of the posters in grinch mode so let the bile flow.
Be well,
Tagamet

LJGTVWOTR!!*************NPNS
N Riley Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 1:30 pm

#113 George

You are closer to the truth than you may know. During the late 1950’s and throughout most of the 1960’s the U.S. government chose policies that were designed to give the middle eastern countries a helping hand to produce crude oil to grow their economies after the end of European colonialism. We encouraged American oil companies to search for and drill for crude oil over doing the same in American waters and on American lands. Policies were put into place that made it harder to drill here. Encouragement through research funding, low interest loans and many other policies were offered the oil companies only if they produced oil in the middle east. The closing of our waters and much of our land to new drilling was done as much to push oil companies to overseas production as to “protect” our “natural resources”.

After decades of these policies, and they are still in place, is it no wonder we are held hostage to foreign oil? The electric automobile will not change this fact one iota. The government knows this. Sure, it will help “stretch-out” the oil supplies and that will help keep foreign oil coming in to supply what is left. We have our government and its policies to thank for our current situation. And ourselves, of course.
billyrule Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 1:33 pm

EV1 – I was upset I had to return my lease -
It has gone down hill since they didn’t let me buy my leased EV1. I hope someone will bring it back with a small engine to charge up the batteries. Now there are Li-ion batteries I would have only dreamed to have that in my EV1.
chuck t Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 1:44 pm

sorry but the volt is a joke! its definitely better than anything we have now, but 40 miles without gas!? give me a break. Tesla motorcars is promising over 200 miles per charge and an optional quick swap battery that takes 5 min to change. GM is just trying to make sure that you never are fully rid of gas.
noel park Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 1:52 pm

#5 Jason M Hendler:

I agree. Alas, in America, we do not seem to work that way. If you get out front of the curve and warn people to change before the inevitable crisis hits, they laugh at you, or worse. Then the crisis hits and it’s panicsville.

#92 Joe:

I would add “The Shock Doctrine – The Rise of Disaster Capitalism” by Naomi Klein. Many of all political persuasions have recently said, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” She illuminated that theory well before its recent vogue, and expanded upon it to inclued, “If there is no crisis, create one.”

#114 Tagamet:

I hear you brother. Or maybe it should be “I feel you.”

LJGTVWOTR!! NPNS!

If President Obama help that to happen, then God bless him, IMHO.
Tagamet Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 2:07 pm

Thanks noel
Be well,
Tagamet
/known to frequent the gm-VOLT site.

LJGTVWOTR!!***************NPNS
Adrian Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 2:08 pm

To believe that you needed a recession (turned into the disaster by Bush-Obama) to switch to electric cars is sure folly.

Hybrids were going to be mainstream at a certain price point, with certain development cycles that can’t be accelerated.

For GM, this means a slide to #5 or 6 in the world in a few years. Building cars that don’t make money and a tiny % of the world wants or can afford is a path to not existing as a company.

The change was coming, but the path taken destroyed two companies that didn’t need to be taken down. Fascism/socialism bad economic strategies strike again…

As a fan of Volt tech (and 25 year loyal GM buyer), my next car will be a Ford. I have no use for company run and owned by a liberty destroying government. This is a slap to the sacrifices of our founding fathers (for the US citizens).

My the Volt tech survive and be joined with the fuel cell it should have had…
CS Guy Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 3:06 pm

I wish the people who are so vocal about being proud of America’s history of progress would be equally angry that the corporations of today (mostly big oil and the chemical industries) have usurped that system and corrupted it along with crooked politicians (on both sides of the aisle btw).

America is NO LONGER that country that can do anything.

We are now the “whoever is the richest now gets to remain the richest even if it kills the rest of us, albeit slowly” country.

Or at least we were until we elected President Obama and the current leadership and voted out/cleaned out (most of) the scum.
CS Guy Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 3:20 pm

ELECTRIC CARS + NUCLEAR POWER 40%, SOLAR POWER 30%, WIND 20%, HYDRO/GEOTHERMAL ELECTRIC POWER 10% = TOTAL AMERICAN ENERGY INDEPENDENCE

(as long as every solar and wind installation has sufficient excess power generation and storage capacity to cover the times when the wind isn’t blowing and there are clouds or at night)

This is achievable by 2015 or 2020 if we make it a priority now. Let’s get started!

- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – -
No more oil wars ! ! !
noel park Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 3:55 pm

#121 CS Guy:

Alas, too true.

However, I choose to believe that we still have the latent capacity to do “anything”. We just have to get what the great Peter Tosh called “The Babylon Shitstem’s” iron boot off our throat and get some proper leadership into place. God send that we have done so, as you so positively suggest.
CS Guy Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 4:09 pm

One note about the electrification of the automobile.

It is happening whether detroit participates or not. The US auto makers have played the hand of big oil far too long, thinking that when the chips are down big oil will help them out in tougher times. Now they see that the oil companies have their paid representatives in congress calling the loudest for their demise. GM, I believe, has finally wised up and realized that even after decades of dragging their feet and assisting the oil lobby to fight increased mpg standards the oil companies are the first ones to throw them under the bus.

The US auto makers should have realized by now that it is in their own best interests to get us off foreign oil. Look how auto sales have suffered due to high gas prices (even before the economic meltdown). There is no other way to see it. The US auto industry will fail if it does not totally change its tune about better gas mileage (I know that the administration has outlined a 37.5MPG fleet average fuel economy target – we can do better than that).

On a related note, I saw a tv show about a conversion shop (I think it was in California) that took a stock Hummer and converted it to run on biodiesel and ethanol and added electric drive or something to make it get like 80 MPG (not sure if it was 80 or higher…). If the tech exists for a tiny auto shop to do this why has detroit been unable to do any of it? Perhaps they could if they really wanted to.

Now that big oil has knifed them in the back maybe they will start thinking for themselves for a change and make the cars we all know they CAN make: damn good ones with high miles per gallon and good ole American quality! I have high hopes for detroit.
CS Guy Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 4:20 pm

Here’s a link about the 100MPG Hummer, I don’t think this is the same one I saw on tv but it IS a hybrid and gets 100MPG and was to be unveiled in detroit in April…

“The prototype we’ll see in Detroit at the Society of Automotive Engineers World Congress on Monday features a series-hybrid drive train similar to the Voltec system in the Chevrolet Volt. Like the Volt, the H3 will be driven solely by electricity. The engine — the 260-horsepower 2.0-liter turbocharged four-cylinder used in the Pontiac Solstice — will drive a 100-kilowatt generator to recharge the three lithium-ion battery packs. Fisker Automotive is using the same engine in its Karma range-extended EV.”
Link to wired story:
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2009/04/behold-americas/

also their video: http://www.rasertech.com/media/videos/hummer-fuel-economy-explained

This just shows it is doable to drive a badazz rig and get excellent fuel economy. I bet this thing will cost a mint but as a first step (or for those with buckets of money now) it is a reminder of what America can do when we put our mind to it!
Andy Crossett Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 4:27 pm

The government interest in GM and Chrysler adds up to just a couple months of the cost of remaining in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I think the billions spent here are worth it.
Now if the government starts buying Green fleet vehicles from GM Ford and Chrysler, then the economies of scale of electric vehicle infrastructure can be jump started.

Then the excess capacity of auto makers can be redeployed to a world class rail system in most populated areas of the country!
melee Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 5:07 pm

Economic problems leading to “alternative energy” and electric cars? Insane. Both are more expensive than the conventional alternative, and generally you don’t sell more-expensive stuff when there’s less money running around.

Technological improvement leading to a better way to do things? Of course. High oil prices? You bet. Government meddling in the maket? Maybe. Post-recession boom? Sure. Recession? Crazy. Just a bunch of unrealistic rhetoric.
koz Says:
June 1st, 2009 at 6:41 pm

RB #94

Glad to see some engagement of this topic, although I’m a little surprised there wasn’t more interest from others in this discussion. There is so much banter about Lutz inacurate tech details, old data, and complete swags that I figured some discussion centered around real current info would be worthwhile.

My analysis assumed 33% average BSFC for the ICE and 40 miles AER from 8KWh out of the battery. I also assumed losses downstream from the generator and battery are equivalent except for the generator energy that is routed through the battery (assumed to be 15%). My assumption that I’m most concerned about is 95% efficiency for the generator. Your guess at 25% total efficiency from fuel to delivered output may be accurate but it is not relevent to this analysis.
Lev Says:
June 2nd, 2009 at 1:49 am

# 12. I B Smart

I think it’s important to point out that power plants are more efficient at converting oil to electricity than gasoline engines are when it’s used for propulsion. So, while electric vehicles don’t eliminate foreign oil dependence, they certainly reduce it, which is a step in the right direction.

The next step would be our movement to achieve oil-independent sources of energy on a national scale, as has been suggested by people above.
Loboc Says:
June 7th, 2009 at 9:25 am

I disagree with the premise that the collapse of some auto companies has caused the rise of the electric car. There is no cause-effect here. The decision to buy electric (or any alternative fuel) car is partially based on the volatile price of oil. If oil stays cheap, alternatives won’t sell.

The Volt is a political cross-over to keep the dealerships happy. With the complexity of a gas engine on top of an electric platform, the maintenance is higher than a pure gas platform. Dealers make their profit on financing and maintenance, not initial sales. GM cannot survive without dealers (sales). Do the math.

Coolness sells $40k cars, price is irrelevant. Nicely-equipped Tahoes and Silverados (and F150s and Rams) are around 40k as well. All this B.S. about Volt having to be 30k to sell is just that, Basically Speculation.

All that said, I still want a Volt!

Recent GM-Volt Forum Posts

Volt Test Drive by Vancouver EV Association February 8, 2010
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA -- General Motors issued a very special invitation to the Vancouver Electric Vehicle Association last week to drive the... […]
WopOnTour
gasoline cars are like smoking . . . . February 8, 2010
interesting article, better presenting what I've had a hard time putting into words (which is why HE's a writer and I'M... […]
prowler
A common European strategy for electric vehicles February 8, 2010
I coudn't resist to cut and paste the next excerpt : Link :... […]
Jean-Charles Jacquemin
Run flat option or standard? February 8, 2010
I suspect that run flats might be standard because they get rid of the space and weight taken by a spare tire and may result in less fatal accidents... […]
1nk
Engine Thermal Management in a Series Hybrid February 8, 2010
I've just recently discovered how different the environments under which a conventional (even parallel hybrid) ICE and series hybrid ICE are... […]
XGC75
electric car with wind generator February 7, 2010
My design of ELECTRIC CAR WITH WIND GENERATOR: http://velkovelkov.blogspot.com/ I think this conception is original and realistic. The low position... […]
Velko Velkov
Please provide complete home solar systems. February 6, 2010
Please provide both a volt charging solar system and a complete whole house solar system that takes the user completely off the grid and stays on... […]
1nk

From the Collapse of the Auto Industry Shall Rise the Electric Car

130 Responses to “From the Collapse of the Auto Industry Shall Rise the Electric Car”

Recent Posts

Recent GM-Volt Forum Posts