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Toyota Says Plugin Car Demand as Low as 3500 per Year, GM Says Low Demand Could Affect Volt Program

May 19th, 2009 | Posted in: Marketing, PHEV

Toyota has been known to throw water on the fire of Volt enthusiasm ever since the concept was first unveiled.

Speaking to a National Academy of Sciences panel, Bill Reinert, who is Toyota’s U.S. national manager for advanced technology, said the annual demand for plugin electric cars could be 50,000 at the most and even as low as 3500. Toyota sold 159,000 Priuses last year.

Reinert said he believes a market for plugin cars could develop but that to do so “depends on advantages over existing hybrids.” He noted “There is a great deal of variation on how current PHEVs perform in real-world conditions.”

Field tests by Google.org on plug-in Priuses outfitted with Hymotion/A123 add-on lithium ion packs only returned mpg estimates in the mid to low 50s up from the base of 46. Toyota still has not committed to mass producing plugin hybrids although they will deploy a global test fleet of 500 beginning later this year.

Reinert drew on Toyota’s experience with the RAV4 EV. He said Toyota spent 15 times as much marketing per vehicle as traditional cars, yet only 300 were sold in a year. “These marketing efforts were successful in generating high awareness, as shown in our Web site traffic data, but sales remained low and did not increase over time,” he said.

Mark Verbrugge, GM’s director of the materials and processes laboratory, was also in attendance at the meeting which took place to generate a report for the Transportation Department on the market-readiness of plug-in vehicles.

Verbrugge said Volt cost projections have actually come down, but not as far as GM would like. He noted the plan to launch Volt remains intact at the present time. However, he said the market would determine for GM how far it would pursue the Volt versus traditional hybrids. “If you don’t see that down the road you’re going to make money, it’s not in anybody’s best interest,” he said.

Source (Bloomberg)

Posted by: Lyle

200 Responses to “Toyota Says Plugin Car Demand as Low as 3500 per Year, GM Says Low Demand Could Affect Volt Program”


  1. Mike D
    Vote -1 Vote +1Mike D
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:50 am

    Wow. FIRST!

    159,000 Pruises

    How many Volts if the tax credit brings them below $30k ?

    I think 3500 is way low.

    The Toyota Plug-in’s don’t offer much incentive, as the reason for plugging them in being a very short AER and then a slight MPG increase, i wouldn’t buy that either! I would get a Volt to reduce my gas consumption by 90%  

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  2. statik
    +1 Vote -1 Vote +1statik
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:50 am

    Price/cost is king…time will tell.  

    (Quote)


  3. J. Nucciarone
    +1 Vote -1 Vote +1J. Nucciarone
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:52 am

    Wait until gas hits $4 again. I wonder how much the freshly announced fuel economy standards will affect the drive towards electrification?  

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  4. HyperMiler
    Vote -1 Vote +1HyperMiler
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:55 am

    Toyota has no choice but to discredit Volt for the time being, since they cannot source a battery similar to LG’s one from Panasonic due to Japanese neglect on Li-Ion battery research.

    Even if Volt falls, Hyundai’s 2012 40 mile AER PHEV would carry on the flag, so fear not.  

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  5. BillR
    Vote -1 Vote +1BillR
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:56 am

    Now comes the real battle!

    If the Volt can return 150 mpg, but the plug-in Prissy can only return ~55 mpg, this will reallly give GM a big advantage on the CAFE standards.

    This can only get more interesting as we approach November 2010!  

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  6. Guy Incognito
    Vote -1 Vote +1Guy Incognito
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:59 am

    In the current economic climate, the last two sentences of the last paragraph are quite ominous.

    Getting a bad feeling in my gut about this.  

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  7. Guido Santucci
    Vote -1 Vote +1Guido Santucci
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:00 am

    “Reinert drew on Toyota’s experience with the RAV4 EV. He said Toyota spent 15 times as much marketing per vehicle as traditional cars, yet only 300 were sold in a year”

    Excuse me! First of all Toyota never even wanted to sell the RAV4-EV. They were only leased until eventually the pressure from existing leasees forced them to do so. I tried to lease one but was informed that they were only available if you lived withing 25 miles of a limited number of dealers in California. If you tell a lie often enough you even begin to believe it yourself.  

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  8. Jason M. Hendler
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jason M. Hendler
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:01 am

    Toyota will say anything to undermine their competition. Meanwhile, they develop BEV’s, which do have low potential sales potential.  

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  9. John Petzen
    Vote -1 Vote +1John Petzen
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:07 am

    I personally will be first in line to buy a Volt if the price is 30,000USD or less. Whether by tax incentive, improved cost engineering, or “cash for clunkers” tax credit, GM needs to hit a price point that makes sense for the average car buyer.  

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  10. Kent
    Vote -1 Vote +1Kent
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:09 am

    Did the RAV4 EV have a range extender? I’m guessing probably not which is just one reason why they couldn’t sell them. The only obstacle for the VOLT will be the final price we have to pay.  

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  11. ArkansasVolt
    Vote -1 Vote +1ArkansasVolt
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:11 am

    i know a website that shows nearly 50,000 that would by a plug-in within the first year or two… even if it is made by GM!

    bring it on… we will see how many of us actually go out and buy a plug-in!  

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  12. Barry
    Vote -1 Vote +1Barry
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:15 am

    Toyota has sold over 1.5 million Priuses and expect to move 400,000 a year of the new Prius just launched. Clearly they know the hybrid market is strong. Of course the demand for a plug in is much weaker due to all the issues with plug ins. But the company that offers both will be the real winner. Where is GMs 20k hybrid to enter this white hot market alongside the Prius and Insight?  

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  13. Andrea
    Vote -1 Vote +1Andrea
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:16 am

    I have been waiting for the Chevy Volt. I am driving my crappy car and praying the GM doesn’t axe the program. I do not spend money on cars, but we will buy a Volt if it is 30k or below. We have been excited and planning for it for a while. Some of my friends told me not to buy the first years model, but I will because I really want a Volt and I am afraid if people don’t buy the first year model there will not be a second gen.  

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  14. Right Lane Cruiser
    Vote -1 Vote +1Right Lane Cruiser
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:17 am

    The main issue with the plug-in conversions currently on the market is that almost none of them address the logic employed by the computers in the vehicle.

    The most widely converted vehicle available is the Prius, and the reason most of those don’t really see a huge improvement is that the engine continues to come on even when drivers do not want it to. Since the Prius was engineered to be primarily a gas car with some limited EV ability, it has a heavy focus on keeping emissions low. To this end, it has a severe fuel economy hit during its warm-up procedures geared specifically toward getting the catalytic converter up to temp as quickly as possible. If the catalytic converter cools off, the engine comes on again to warm it back up.

    What’s the result? Most plug-in versions of the Prius will start the engine even when the battery is fully topped off. It will also start it periodically thereafter — *even if you haven’t used the full AER or gone over the EV top speed limit.*

    This is where the Volt is vastly superior in architecture — the engine will not come on unless the AER has been depleted first. It actually behaves the way we want it to simply because it is not intended to be primarily a gas car.

    The plug-in Prius is likely to be a bit cheaper than the Volt (at least on launch) but the disadvantages of the system (unless Toyota wises up and changes the programming for their version) will make a bit higher price on the Volt worth the extra cost for most customers. The key is just how much of a cost differential that turns out to be.

    As for the RAV4-EV, no it did not have a range extender. That didn’t stop owners from hooking up a trailer mounted generator for occasional longer trips, though. ;)   

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  15. john1701a
    Vote -1 Vote +1john1701a
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:21 am

    If the Volt can return 150 mpg, but the plug-in Prissy can only return ~55 mpg
    ___________________

    Grow up already.

    The non-plug Prius delivers 55 MPG, new 2010 owners are seeing that now.

    As for Volt, the 150 MPG has no testing data to support it, nor is there an even an estimate process yet.

    Demand is very much dependent on price, which is a huge unknown still.  

    (Quote)


  16. Herm
    Vote -1 Vote +1Herm
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:23 am

    Dont despair, there are other options.

    It wont be long before Hymotion offers a plug-in conversion for the 2010 Prius.. it should prove interesting with the new higher power motors and the EV mode switch.

    Buy a $22k Prius, a $10k Hymotion battery and you have a 30-40 mile plug-in.. and it does not void your warranty.

    Here is the manual:

    http://www.a123systems.com/hymotion/pdf/L5UserGuide.pdf

    $10k is a better investment than buying some fancy wheels and soon-to-be-obsolete nav system. It would be nice if the option was offered at dealerships.  

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  17. noel park
    Vote -1 Vote +1noel park
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:30 am

    Right On Toyota – keep your head planted firmly in the sand until the Volt steals a march on you!

    LJGTVWOTR!!

    NPNS!  

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  18. ArkansasVolt
    Vote -1 Vote +1ArkansasVolt
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:31 am

    #16 Herm

    $32k plug-in prius… 30-40 mile range… 5.5 hours for a charge… 100 mpg or greater… interesting…

    good find  

    (Quote)


  19. omnimoeish
    Vote -1 Vote +1omnimoeish
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:34 am

    They only had 300 Rav4s to sell. The Toyota CEO or something accidentally said the Rav4’s would be fore sale, he meant for lease, but Toyota had to go with it. They sold all of the RAV4 EVs they had in just a few days and the only way people knew how to buy one was by word of mouth.

    That guy is totally lying and all he’s doing is pouring water on the Volt’s fire. Toyota is just way too far behind on plug ins.

    Everyone knows that even at $40,000, when demand for oil picks back up in a couple of years (coincidentally when the Volt will first be released), GM won’t be able to make enough of them.

    I’m not saying Toyota won’t be selling one heck of a lot of Priuses though.  

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  20. Vincent
    Vote -1 Vote +1Vincent
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:37 am

    Hmmmm, I don’t like the tone of this….
    I wonder what GM has that can allow it to meet the new Fuel/Air standards…  

    (Quote)


  21. N Riley
    Vote -1 Vote +1N Riley
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:42 am

    “Verbrugge said Volt cost projections have actually come down, but not as far as GM would like. He noted the plan to launch Volt remains intact at the present time. However, he said the market would determine for GM how far it would pursue the Volt versus traditional hybrids. “If you don’t see that down the road you’re going to make money, it’s not in anybody’s best interest,” he said.”
    ——————————————–

    A statement such as this can only be viewed as being quite realistic. No one expects GM or any car company to produce plug-ins no one will buy. It would be unrealistic for us to expect otherwise.

    It all depends on several factors, such as the price of fuel, as we have discussed here many times.  

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  22. Herm
    Vote -1 Vote +1Herm
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:44 am

    The Volt may also have this problem.. in any case if Toyota gets to use a bigger battery they could always electrically pre-heat the catalytic converter.. and also put some insulation on it.

    The new 2010 Prius has bigger motors, capable to go up to 62mph.. thus it may never turn-on the engine if speeds and range allow it.
    …………………………………….
    #14 Right Lane Cruiser Says:

    Since the Prius was engineered to be primarily a gas car with some limited EV ability, it has a heavy focus on keeping emissions low. To this end, it has a severe fuel economy hit during its warm-up procedures geared specifically toward getting the catalytic converter up to temp as quickly as possible. If the catalytic converter cools off, the engine comes on again to warm it back up.  

    (Quote)


  23. ClarksonCote
    Vote -1 Vote +1ClarksonCote
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:48 am

    “He said Toyota spent 15 times as much marketing per vehicle as traditional cars, yet only 300 were sold in a year.”

    This is a pretty hilarious statistic. Comparing the cost per vehicle when they didn’t even offer the vehicle for sale nationwide is pretty amusing.  

    (Quote)


  24. kent beuchert
    Vote -1 Vote +1kent beuchert
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:58 am

    Reinert is Toyota’s front man for its anti-Volt campaign. I think it’s amusing that he would point out the results of that cobbled together Prius plug-in as if it has any relationship to the Volt system. Unless you state the number of miles on a battery charge, any data provided is totally useless. The fact that Reinert is claiming relevance here tells me a lot about his motives and/or intelligence.
    We all know he’s a jerk, so why pay attention to him?  

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  25. Tim
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tim
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:59 am

    I don’t think that Greg Verbrugge is a real person. I believe you meshed Greg Ceisel and Mark Verbrugge together….no?  

    (Quote)


  26. Rashiid Amul
    Vote -1 Vote +1Rashiid Amul
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:07 pm

    #15 John1701a says,
    Demand is very much dependent on price, which is a huge unknown still.

    ——
    Yup. I even think the price of gas is not as important as the final price of this car. For instance. If gasoline is $1.00 a gallon and the Volt is $20K, anyone inclined to buy the Volt will still buy it.  

    (Quote)


  27. CDAVIS
    Vote -1 Vote +1CDAVIS
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:08 pm

    ______________________________________________________
    “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
    Thomas Watson Senior, Chairman of IBM, 1943
    ______________________________________________________
    Electric Cars + Nuclear Energy = American Energy Independence!
    ______________________________________________________  

    (Quote)


  28. brad
    Vote -1 Vote +1brad
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:08 pm

    You can’t use a car not released nationwide (Rav4 EV or EV1) as a statistic for a nationwide roll out. Also when the Rav4 EV and EV1 was out nobody was worried about oil. Hummers and huge SUVs were all the rage. Times have changed and the whole US is aware of the issues and those skyrocketing oil prices will still be in our heads in 5 years even if oil stays stable.  

    (Quote)


  29. Jim in PA
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jim in PA
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:09 pm

    If GM is smart, they will heavily subsidize the Volt at a loss just to boost sales, because a single 150 mpg vehicle allows nine 30 mpg vehicles to meet average CAFE standard of 42 mpg. Bury the profit in the 30 mpg vehicles by not implementing expensive fuel effiency options in those cars, and use the Volt as a CAFE compliance tool. Drop that price low enough, and the sales will climb high enough that the Volt pays for itself in the form of higher revenue from higher profit cars like Buicks and Caddys. This may be cheaper than trying to drastically improve the fuel economy of nine 30 mpg cars.

    Thoughts, anyone? It seems to me that this approach alone can justify the Volt’s existence even with somewhat low sales volume.  

    (Quote)


  30. MarkH
    Vote -1 Vote +1MarkH
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:09 pm

    The Hymotion conversion only gives a benefit for that first 30 to 40 miles per day. The savings works out to about 1/2 gallon of gas per day. At $4.00 per gallon that would be about $500 per year.
    The conversion costs over $10,000. So it would take over 20 years to pay for itself for the average commuter, if it doesn’t qualify for tax credits.
    Does anyone know? Do any tax credits apply here?  

    (Quote)


  31. Guido
    Vote -1 Vote +1Guido
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:11 pm

    kent beuchert Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 11:58 am
    Reinert is Toyota’s front man for its anti-Volt campaign. I think it’s amusing that he would point out the results of that cobbled together Prius plug-in as if it has any relationship to the Volt system. Unless you state the number of miles on a battery charge, any data provided is totally useless. The fact that Reinert is claiming relevance here tells me a lot about his motives and/or intelligence.
    We all know he’s a jerk, so why pay attention to him?
    ——–
    In fact, I think Reinert posts regularly here under the pseudonym “Charlie H” ….  

    (Quote)


  32. DonC
    Vote -1 Vote +1DonC
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:17 pm

    I think it was Yogi Berra who said “it’s hard to predict, especially when it’s about the future”. So true. As someone else mentioned, time will tell. However, since I know of four, no make that five, households within a couple of hundred yards of mine who would at least consider the Volt, I’m thinking the estimated sales are low.

    A plug-in Prius doesn’t make a lot of sense. The split drive system just isn’t designed for it. An EV is something quite different. If the car delivers decent performance and is reliable then the Volt will take a chunk — a big chunk — of market share.  

    (Quote)


  33. Barry
    Vote -1 Vote +1Barry
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:25 pm

    Toyota has 13 years of selling the Prius under their belt. They have a history of tapping into actual demand, not building cars they think will be in demand. What market would a smart company go after 3,500 cars a year or 500,000?

    Don’t kid yourself for a minute thinking Toyota is “behind” the Volt in any way. I guarantee they have many plug ins in the pipeline that could be out by 2011 just like the Volt. They are just banking on hybrids for now, and don’t telegraph their moves like GM is doing.  

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  34. hermant
    Vote -1 Vote +1hermant
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:26 pm

    From a purely economic standpoint, the Volt doesn’t make any sense. $40K – $7500 in credits means you still pay out $32.5K for a small four door, four passenger that doesn’t get that good of mileage. Oh yes, it runs on electric that costs one fourth that of gasoline. Big deal.

    I cook have bought a Honda Insight (four doors, five passengers, well-proven technology) and still had $12K in my pocket to fuel it! I mean yes, fuel might get more expensive, but not $12K more expensive over the life of the car. Economically, the Volt is a non-starter! I know I’m not buying it…  

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  35. DonC
    Vote -1 Vote +1DonC
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:27 pm

    #22 Herm says “The new 2010 Prius has bigger motors, capable to go up to 62mph”

    Fairly meaningless. The motor is 73 kW and it drives the planetary gears. Can you spell “Underpowered” and “Drive Train Losses”. The Prius split drive system is a terrific invention but it simply can’t compete with a plug-in serial hybrid. It’s designed to increase the mileage you can get with an ICE, not replace the ICE function with an electric motor.

    #34 hermant says “From a purely economic standpoint, the Volt doesn’t make any sense”

    That’s right. And neither does the Prius, the Camry, the Accord, or any BMW, Acura, Lexus, or Mercedes. So what? This dollars and cents comparison is completely and impossibly lame. In case you haven’t noticed, price is a significant factor but hardly determinative.  

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  36. ronr64
    Vote -1 Vote +1ronr64
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:40 pm

    I’m not in marketing but I do know this, bathroom jokes asside, I’m about as regular a guy as you’ll get, but I have zero interest in a Prius. But I am very excited about the Volt. Because it can let me use no gas in a “normal” car. I am in it for the national security angle more than anything else. A close 2nd would be financial independance from swinging gas prices. At $4-$5 a gallon this gets to be real close 2nd! I don’t wear hemp shirts, my wife still shaves her legs and I don’t have a lifetime subscription to Mother Earth News. What I am trying to say is that it is mainstream people that will define if the Volt is a success or not.

    If the Volt delivers I think GM has a homerun on its hands, assumming the pricing is such that it can compete.  

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  37. ArkansasVolt
    Vote -1 Vote +1ArkansasVolt
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:41 pm

    #35 DonC

    Well stated on both statements.  

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  38. CaptJackSparrow
    Vote -1 Vote +1CaptJackSparrow
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 12:43 pm

    ““If you don’t see that down the road you’re going to make money, it’s not in anybody’s best interest,””

    It all depends on the visionary. Toyota envisioned the Prius and the US auto saw it differen’t, so now here we are. Here is where we can turn it around. We (US) should take the vision of the Volt and blast through the barrier. WTF are we waiting for?Even if only half of the peeps in Lyle’s list buys a volt the first year it’s still more than wht the yexpect for the Prius. Just build it D@AMN IT!!!

    The older Prius Plugin mods couldn’t do much more because of the drive limitations of the electric motor. I think the 2010 Prius will solve that. Also, I don’t like how the plugin mods work, I would’ve taken a different approach but that’s just me. They made it too complicated and friggin expensive.  

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  39. dc
    Vote -1 Vote +1dc
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

    People are fond of new tag lines – what about No Real World Data – No Sale.

    I’m sick of the 100, 150, 160 miles per gallon “guesses”. The only true testing data I have read of the Volt was run in super-optimum conditions and frankly was less than thrilling.

    I’m as excited as the next guy about the Volt – I think I was around 3,000 on the wait list. But I’ve seen NOTHING substantive out of GM on real testing. And maybe it hasnt happened yet.

    I happen to live in the (statistically) wealthiest market in the country (DC Metro area) which is sure to be a target market for the 1st gen Volts. We also have humid summers here. So, show me Volt testing with the radio and AC blasting over a 45 minutes commute.

    Also, again, remember that the dealer is going to have a ridiculous “high demand/no supply” markup on the Volt when it comes out – unless told not to by GM/Obama. So this $40k – $7500 credit “formula” should include another $5,000 tacked on that the dealer is sure to charge. Assuming the Volt gets the $7,500 credit and assuming it comes in at $39,999 – I still see the total cost with tax, tags, and markups back to $40,000.  

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  40. sparks
    Vote -1 Vote +1sparks
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:19 pm

    When gasoline prices spike and shortages begin to occur, the automakers who haven’t developed PHEVs will be kicking themselves all the way to bankruptcy court. The global economic crash has halted new oil projects, and while the effects of “peak oil” have been pushed aside in the news by more pressing economic problems, peak oil has arrived. The current oil fields are in depletion now and losing productivity at a rate of over 5% per year. The new projects have been mothballed, and will be extremely expensive (and slow) to restart.

    As soon as there are signs of economic recovery, the oil price will skyrocket, just as it did in 2008. Even without a significant recovery, the oil price will rise relentlessly in the next few coming years. The price tripled in the span of a less than a year, and yet, nobody produced more oil. Only a fool would have held back production at those premium prices. What really held back production was geology, the physical limits of what can be produced by the global oil industry. They pumped every ounce they could pump.  

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  41. Luke
    Vote -1 Vote +1Luke
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:20 pm

    Billr @ 5,

    plug-in Prissy

    I’m a Prius fanboy! Deal with it! :) The Prius isn’t for everybody. For one for instance, it doesn’t help people like BillR deal with feelings of sexual inadequacy. Also, it’s a small practical grocery cart that is made comfortable by technology and gadgets — so it’s not suitable for racing or hauling heavy objects.

    As for the bigger issue, I think Toyota is underestimating demand. There are some people who won’t buy a GM vehicle under any circumstances and who want to buy a plugin vehicle, so the plug-in Prius will likely be a hit with these folks. The family member who matches the above description seriously asked me the other day if the 3rd-generation Prius hype included a plug-in version but, alas, he’ll have to stick with his Z3 Roadster for a few more years. Since he drives a Z3 roadster, you can guess the demographic that he inhabits, and his commute is short enough that the range of the plugin Prius would be a reasonable choice. I think he’s making the right decision for him!

    Personally, I’m hoping/betting that the Volt will replace my girlfriend’s 2004 Prius for daily driving — but the Volt really does have to be better than an old Prius when it becomes available. She says she’s up for it if I pay for the new car, so we may have a deal. :-)

    Different people, different requirements, different vehicles. That sounds like good news for all buyers and sellers in the plugin market.  

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  42. Tim
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tim
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:22 pm

    Voltec is not a NOT a “hybrid” like a Prius, nor is it be a “plug-in hybrid” like a Prius with a bigger battery:

    Somebody please educate Mr. Reinert with the facts:

    “Since the current Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) definition of a hybrid vehicle states the vehicle shall have “two or more energy storage systems both of which must provide propulsion power, either together or independently”, the company has avoided the use of the term “hybrid” when describing its non-conforming Voltec designs.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt

    The Volt is an Electric Vehicle which will run only and completely on electricity for the daily commuting of 78% of the population. The range-extender is ONLY there to eliminate “range-anxiety” and to make a second, long-range car unnecessary.

    The Volt and the Prius have NOTHING in common! Comparing the Volt to the Prius is like comparing the space shuttle with a Boeing 747.

    Toyota is only telling half-truths and complete lies while trying to protect itself from being technologically leapfrogged by GM.

    Toyota will fail!  

    (Quote)


  43. alex_md
    Vote -1 Vote +1alex_md
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

    Prius is not born to be a plug-in. Sure you can make a cow fly with enogh black powder.
    I personally want EV, mostly for the fun of it. I have disposable income not to worry about gas prices even at $15/ gal the idea of car 2.0 is just very interesting. I dont think I will be buying a volt 1.0 since I am not interested in ICE tech any longer. I will have to wait for Model S, or a fully electric Benz developed buy Tesla-Daimler.

    As for the national security I’d rather use THEIR oil till its dry at the price WE want to pay in USD and keep the remaining of OUR oil for our grand children and let the Middle East go back to riding horses.  

    (Quote)


  44. CaptJackSparrow
    Vote -1 Vote +1CaptJackSparrow
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:31 pm

    The bottom line for anything to be a success is the Price. a 21K Prius or Insight or a $37,500 Chevy Volt.
    Chevy needs to NOT price the car so high. What little I know of Chapter whatever is that debt’s get washed out, displaced or whatever. This SHOULD include all the R&D $$$ spent on the Volt and GM should not try and recoup that cost as it is my guess that it was washed out by Chap whatever. If they can write of the billion dollar loans of debt, they had better wash out the $$$ used/spent on R&D and testing to this point in time for the Volt therefore bringing the cost of the Volt closer to 25K. If that doesn’t happen then there is more greed somewhere in the company that needs to get weeded out.
    Anyone want to guess???…..  

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  45. Tim
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tim
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

    This is and interesting article:

    A123Systems’ Prismatic Cell Lineup: Up to 5,300 W/kg in High Power Cell, 20 Ah Cell for PHEVs

    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/05/a123-prismatic-20090519.html#more  

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  46. BillR
    Vote -1 Vote +1BillR
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

    #31 Guido

    LMAO!!  

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  47. KUD
    Vote -1 Vote +1KUD
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:37 pm

    To Toyota:

    From Want a Plug In

    Dear Toyota

    I am looking to replace both my ‘02 and ‘98 cars. My Garage plug is waiting to fill my Cars. So I guess after my purchase GM will have to work hard to find 3498 buyers …… NOT!!!!!!!  

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  48. CaptJackSparrow
    Vote -1 Vote +1CaptJackSparrow
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:37 pm

    @Tim 42

    “Voltec is not a NOT a “hybrid” like a Prius, nor is it be a “plug-in hybrid” like a Prius with a bigger battery:”

    Lets face it, for the common person to make the comparison, they BOTH still use OPEC juice and the next step in comparison is the front end price.  

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  49. BillR
    Vote -1 Vote +1BillR
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:45 pm

    #41 Luke,

    “The Prius isn’t for everybody. For one for instance, it doesn’t help people like BillR deal with feelings of sexual inadequacy.”

    From your perspective, I’m sure this is true. I’m not gay!

    Good news! The new Prissy comes in pink!!  

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  50. Dave G
    Vote -1 Vote +1Dave G
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:49 pm

    With plug-ins, we should forget about miles per gallon, and look at gallons per year.

    With a typical driving pattern, assuming you only charge overnight:
    Vehicle ……………… Gallons per year
    Volt ………………….. 37
    Prius plug-in ……….. 182
    Prius ………………… 228
    30 MPG car ………… 380
    20 MPG car ………… 570  

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  51. Tim
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tim
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:51 pm

    CaptJack (#48)

    78% of commuters will find that their Volt will not use ONE DROP of “OPEC juice” during their daily commute. Many Volt owners will NEVER use one drop of “OPEC juice” in the vehicle’s lifetime.

    The Prius MUST use “OPEC juice” to function normally. A “plug-in hybrid” Prius is NOT the same as an Electric Car with or without an onboard range-extender.

    Saying that they both still use “OPEC juice” so they are the same is like saying that the Space Shuttle and the Being 747 are the same because they both have wings, wheels and use air to glide to a landing.

    A half-truth is the blackest of lies.  

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  52. Dave G
    Vote -1 Vote +1Dave G
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:56 pm

    #44 CaptJackSparrow,

    The Volt will cost less than $30,000 after tax credits.  

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  53. Jim I
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jim I
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    Yadda-Yadda-Yadda….

    Just build the Volt, and we will buy!!!!

    :)

    NPNS!  

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  54. LeoK
    Vote -1 Vote +1LeoK
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    Diamler just bought 10% of Telsa. EV’s are coming – and if Toyota wants to continue spewing negative comments, so be it. But my guess is that they are franticly working away on their own plug-in vehicles.

    GM has come around and accepted President Obama’s new very tough federal fuel economy standards in large part because they finally have the answer. Not only is GM leading most other current high-volume ICE vehicles in fuel economy, the VOLT will leap-frog everything else currently on the market.

    There may be only 3,500 plug-in buyers in Toyota’s world, but sadly they never conferred with this website!

    Go VOLT!  

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  55. Texas
    Vote -1 Vote +1Texas
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 1:59 pm

    Toyota is smart. They have complete dominance for normal hybrids but just might have a good fight trying to keep up with Volt.

    Notice how he is keeping things open by saying 50,000 or lower? He gave the impression that they are not doing what Volt is doing because it does not make sense, not that they can’t, won’t or didn’t plan early enough.

    He hopes the Volt will not become huge because that will mean he has to hurry up and get the Prius plug-in ramped up (or even make one that matches the Volt). The batteries are very expensive and the profit margins are questionable. Even GM admits they won’t make money.

    Toyota already had to lower the price of the new Prius to keep Honda from walking away with the hybrid prize. They don’t want to fight on two fronts (standard and plug-in hybrids). Thus, it’s in their best interest to cool the Volt hype.

    I’m betting he is secretly sweating bullets and hopes he didn’t make a huge mistake by not coming out with a Volt killer. If he’s wrong, it could change everything. I think he knows that.  

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  56. k-dawg
    Vote -1 Vote +1k-dawg
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:00 pm

    There’s a lot of magical #’s that if the planets align could mean the difference between selling 10,000 Volts and 1 million Volts.

    The 4 main thresholds in my opinion are

    Gas price > $4
    Volt price = or less than $30,000 (after Tax incentives)
    Volt AER > or = 40miles
    Volt RE mode > or = 40 mpg

    I’m not saying people won’t buy outside these #’s, but these would really open the floodgates to the people that are looking for an economic incentive to buy the Volt.  

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  57. BillR
    Vote -1 Vote +1BillR
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:12 pm

    #56 k-dawg

    I would add another threshold.

    Remember Hurricane Katrina?

    If gas is at $3, and we have another major event (maybe Iran detonates a nuclear device in the Indian Ocean), gas prices could spike to $8 per gallon.

    Even though this may be short in duration, maybe only a few months, it will wake people up to the realities of how volatile oil prices can be in a world with tight supply.

    This type of event would also send people scrambling to buy BEV’s and E-REV’s, just as a personal insurance policy, IMO.  

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  58. LeoK
    Vote -1 Vote +1LeoK
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:14 pm

  59. Jerry
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jerry
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:16 pm

    Toyota and GM are both going to be scooped on having the first mass produced affordable EV in the US

    Nissan’s EV2 with its 4 hour charge, 100 mile range and possible price as low as 20k before rebates should be a huge hit. There’s something to be said for being first.

    http://www.inhabitat.com/2009/05/19/nissans-ev-02-to-be-the-first-mass-market-electric-car/  

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  60. charlie h
    Vote -1 Vote +1charlie h
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:19 pm

    #31, Charlie H does not work for Toyota. He works for an American company and his tax dollars are used to prop up complete business failures that are implementing plans to lose more money. He’s not real happy about that; this is a drain on the resources of creative American companies that could actually make a difference and pull the US into a more competitive 21st century position.

    After GM’s bankruptcy reorg, with two exceptions (Wagoner and Lutz), the people that drove GM onto the rocks will still be at GM… continuing to drive GM onto the rocks. The best we can hope for is a different set of rocks.

    Toyota has maintained, all along, that battery economics and performance work against the RE-EV at this time. Ford (the automaker that has not received bailout bucks – does this tell us something about their skills and wisdom?) agrees! Toyota bulked up the electrics in the 2010 Prius to take advantage of any future developments in battery technology. Toyota is aiming for flexibility.

    GM is aiming for self-immolation. They’ve committed themselves to a fundamentally unsaleable vehicle that no one understands. Even here, discuss a capability or limitation and there’s a blizzard of posts arguing the point (incessantly and with incomplete information and sometimes completely at odds with common sense or the laws of physics – but that discourages no one).

    GM has never set a price. They talk about price but they have never said $X [explicitly before or after] tax credit. They have never said, $X MSRP. At least two earlier posters in this thread say, I’ll buy the Volt – but they also mention a $30K cutoff! And this is the very home of the rabid Volt fanatic! Reality is, price matters.

    Out in the real world, the Volt will have to compete with a $21K Prius and a $19.8K Insight, on which both Toyota and Honda MAKE MONEY! That’s right, amazingly enough, Toyota and Honda aim to MAKE MONEY selling cars! Against a sea of regular cars, the conventional Camrys, Accords, Fusions, Malibus, Avengers and whatnot, the $21K Prius with 50mpg looks AMAZINGLY good. Few people will say, gee… I really want to spend $12-20K more for a car that’s slightly more than AMAZINGLY good; I’ll dig deep into my kids college education funds and get me one of them Volts!

    GM plans to produce 10K Volts in 2011. This is entirely negligible. Honda will build 200K Insights and Toyota is capable of producing over 400K Priuses (not counting the 2009 models that will be their bargain vehicles in the JDM).

    When all the shouting is over and the Volt, maybe, sells its first 10K units… then what? If battery economics really do shift, do you suppose Toyota will not be able to figure out how to build a car that is fundamentally simpler than a Prius? Or that Ford can’t do it?

    The Volt may, in an absolute best-case scenario, have a 12 month lead in the market and GM intends to use this slender lead by selling a mere 10K vehicles!

    Stick a fork in GM – they’re done.

    I salute this very sensible comment:

    “As for the national security I’d rather use THEIR oil till its dry at the price WE want to pay in USD and keep the remaining of OUR oil for our grand children and let the Middle East go back to riding horses.”

    Yep. Burn theirs first at our price. Alex_md gets it.

    However, this is a difficult thing to achieve. Will 10K Volts do that? Not hardly. But 400K Priuses and 200K Insights will help. If GM would do its part with a flood of fuel-efficient cars, that would help, too. An Aveo that didn’t get crappy fuel economy would be a real plus.  

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  61. Tim
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tim
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:20 pm

    Looking again at Mr. Reinert’s comments…

    I wonder if Toyota really telling the truth. Perhaps they actually believe that there may be limited buyers for the PHEVs because the new crop of E-REVs will replace them.

    Rapid vehicular evolution!

    Perhaps Toyota is already secretly preparing their E-REV answer to the Volt as a “black ops” project. In the mean time, Toyota could produce only a few thousand Plug-in Prius just to keep their “green technology credibility” and keep up with the Jones.

    That would answer a lot of questions about Mr. Reinert’s statements, the future of the aging small passenger car Hybrid platform, the rapid evolution from ICE to HEV, then PHEV and finally to E-REV with and without range-extenders depending on intended use.
    Mr. Reinhert’s statements could simply be strategic distraction.  

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  62. wwskinn3
    Vote -1 Vote +1wwskinn3
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:21 pm

    Would one of you guys make a small 2 seater sports convertible electric. I don’t care which company makes it but Toyota has a small sports car(I forget what it is called) and GM already has two designs that are popular – the SKY and the small Pontiac. Not everyone wants or needs a blah 4 dr sedan for a commuter car. With a smaller car you should be able to get over 100 miles per charge easily – this is already being done with SKY conversions (150). There is a market for this type of car and I think whoever makes it will have a winner. Most of the commuters I know drive by themselves anyway. This type of car would add more fun to the electric experience along with greater range so no need for the ICE.  

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  63. Bruce J
    Vote -1 Vote +1Bruce J
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:25 pm

    #Dave G

    Re: your “typical driving pattern” that you post all the time.

    Assuming $2/gallon gas, the difference in price for the gallons per year of the Prius vs the Volt is $290. The difference in price assuming a $37,500 Volt and a $23k Prius is $14,500.

    Therefore, it would take 50 years of driving to recoup the extra cost of the Volt versus the Prius. Most of us don’t own our cars 50 years. Assuming a typical 5 year lifespan of the car, you’d save $13,050 buying the Prius in overal cost of ownership. Assuming your typical driving pattern.  

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  64. Raymond
    Vote -1 Vote +1Raymond
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:29 pm

    I don’t know where they get their numbers. Did they phone everyone in the world to ask? They’ve been trying to discredit the “plug-in” project from day one. I’m getting my Volt as soon as they are available in Canada and the price not exceeding $35K. The recent (local) price hike of 40 cents a gallon – for noreason at all – really makes me want to escape gas companies’ tyrany.  

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  65. solo
    Vote -1 Vote +1solo
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:31 pm

    I have read a lot of posts here and I think the bottom line is this.
    Nobody knows for sure.

    Nobody knows what the price of gas will be in 2011, let alone next month.

    Nobody knows exactly what a Volt will sell for because there are so many variables, including govt. rebates, sticker price, and most importantly, DEALER GREED.

    Nobody knows if the Heil Obama will raise the gas tax to Draconian levels to pay for his socialist programs (Sorry, had to put my political nose in the post!). But in reality, the price of gas will be a big driver in the value of vehicles like the Volt.

    Also, with the new CAFE standards announced today, having a Volt in your mix may allow GM to sell more profitable vehicles like Trucks and SUV’s. GM and other car companies may have to GIVE Volt vehicles away to meet CAFE standards, depending on how they are written.  

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  66. well
    Vote -1 Vote +1well
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:32 pm

    They could bring it to Europe if demand is too small. There, 4$/gallon would be cheap…  

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  67. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:34 pm

    I’m curious did Reinert slap Fritz with the front or back of his hand.

    Reinert says there’s maybe a market for 3500 Volts and all of it’s competitors; and by the way we’ve sold 1.4 million Prius’ worldwide and we’ll sell another 150,000 or so of the newest one before the Volt even gets into it’s first showroom.

    I heard the slap but I can’t figure if it was the front or back of Reinert’s hand that made contact!

    wwskinn3 – The sky is small, but it still weighs about 2900 lbs.  

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  68. Tim
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tim
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    Bruce J (#63)

    Are you assuming that consumers choose and purchase cars purely on economics? (I hope not)

    Also, when you tell the whole truth and factor in EV tax incentives in your calculations, the Volt MAY be below $30K PLUS the fact that the average price of gasoline over the last 72 months is over $2.60/gal. in the US and $3.60/gal in Canada AND we still have the ever growing Chinese economy straining global oil resources more each year.

    http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=24

    Large speculators are betting REAL MONEY on $4.00+/gal gas in US by late 2010 when the Volt (hopefully) hits the market. Want to make a wager on gas prices in 18 months?

    Your $2.00/gal US retail gas is incorrect and irrelevant!

    Now let’s talk about the average cost of gas in Europe and the rest of GM’s global customer base…  

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  69. k-dawg
    Vote -1 Vote +1k-dawg
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    62 wwskinn3

    I see those cars coming. Right now, GM anyway, is trying to make an every-man’s car under the Chevy name, that will appeal to the masses. I wouldnt mind an electric Pontiac Soltice. It would be fun, but not practical (for me). I live in cold weather, and I want 250 min range. The tech just isnt there, yet…. but getting closer. Also for mass markets to buy these cars, the price has be lower. That is where E-rev will pave the way for BEV.  

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  70. Eager2Get1
    Vote -1 Vote +1Eager2Get1
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    Put the Volt next to a Prius and you will immediately see why the Volt will be a big sell! It isn’t the technology stupid! It’s the looks and the practicality of the design that makes it for me first!

    Toyota can say what they want but they don’t rize to the ankle of a Chevy! unless it is on the very high end of the Toyota line. I consider the Prius to be on the low end.

    I would not get caught dead in a Prius! I would be the first in line at the couter for the Volt!  

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  71. CaptJackSparrow
    Vote -1 Vote +1CaptJackSparrow
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    @Dave G 52

    “The Volt will cost less than $30,000 after tax credits.”

    I can only “See” what the numbers will be on the loan papers.
    The $7500 means nothing till the next/following year. The loan papers wont deduct that value. They have to get you some how…..lol
    However, I did put together a list of possibilities for that $7500 rebate. Here it goes….

    1)—Use the $7500.00 tax rebate you get back the following year to cover part of a Solar system for your house, even just a small one. This will ensure you will be driving a truely “Green” car.

    2)—Use the $7500.00 tax rebate you get back the following year as a “down” when you refi the car the following year you bought it. This should lower your monthly payments and/or reduce the length of the loan.

    3)—Use the $7500.00 tax rebate you get back the following year and put it all towards the principle of the loan. This should reduce the ammount of months of the loan tenure.

    4)—IF you still have your big SUV/Truck, Use the $7500.00 tax rebate you get back the following year to augment your SUV/Truck with the NetGain EAS with EMIS system. http://www.netgaintechnologiesllc.com/EAS/tabid/574/Default.aspx
    This will give you something similar to Honda’s IMA (Integrated Motor Assist)  

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  72. Jim in PA
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jim in PA
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:44 pm

    #65 Solo – Please stop making my head hurt. The Right better evolve a new way of arguing and insulting people, because their current method makes sense to nobody but themselves (Obama is fascist/communist, fat/skinny, stupid/conniving, round/square) If you are going to sound like a 5th grader, at least make it internally consistent.  

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  73. k-dawg
    Vote -1 Vote +1k-dawg
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:46 pm

    59 Jerry

    Interesting.. the more the merrier, but I think based on that article Nissan has a lot of work ahead of them. And quotes like “its not a speedy vehicle”, say a lot. They may be in NEV stage still. We’ll see what happens next year. A LOT of players are saying “In 2010″. I actually hope they ALL deliver.  

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  74. k-dawg
    Vote -1 Vote +1k-dawg
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:49 pm

    71 CaptJack

    and

    #5 Put it in your Roth IRA and let it grow.  

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  75. Jackson
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jackson
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:49 pm

    So let me see if I’ve got this right:

    Step one:
    Turn a lemon into an orange with a coat of paint, for the purpose of comparing it to an apple.

    Step two:
    Loudly claim that this “experience” allows you to say that only 3500 apples can be sold a year.

    Step three:
    Deflate your enemy (the apple) with negative and misleading information.

    Step four:
    Profit? (get even more out of your decade-old lemon technology)

    Let’s see Toyota make:
    1) A hybrid that doesn’t run the engine for the first 40 miles while delivering V6 performance,
    2) that doesn’t look like a turd with a stick up it’s nose
    3) see how many of those it can sell,
    4) THEN estimate how many Volts can be sold.

    On second thought, please don’t.

    From fanboys on blogs to on-the-payroll mouthpieces like Reiner, the Toyota game seems to be

    Trolling for Dollars!

    Let’s hope they find it a losing strategy.  

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  76. Zach
    Vote -1 Vote +1Zach
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 2:58 pm

    I never heard about the RAV4 EV until I started coming to these forums. I don’t watch TV, and I’m assuming that’s where all their marketing went. Otherwise I would have heard about it.

    3,500 though? Only an IDIOT would say something like that! I can name 10 people off the top of my head that were complaining about gas prices 8 months ago when they were hovering around $4.00/gal. If I can name 10 people, I’m sure everyone who attends these forums can name at least 5 people… hell, I’m sure we can all name 20 people if we thought about it!!

    I realize that if we could all name 20 people that wouldn’t be a huge number, but really, we’re not a HUGE group of people either (at least not the typical ones who comment).

    No reason to over-explain my thoughts, so I’ll end here.  

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  77. k-dawg
    Vote -1 Vote +1k-dawg
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:00 pm

    I’ve said this on other threads, but I think some of the anti-plug feelings I get from Toyota, are due to Japan’s infrastructure. They are not really set up like the US where everyone has a plug to use (from what i’ve seen of my trips over there). I dont know how popular plug in cars would be in Japan.

    Anyone on this blog from Japan? Would you be interested in a plug in? Would you need your employer or residence to install a plug for you to use?  

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  78. CaptJackSparrow
    Vote -1 Vote +1CaptJackSparrow
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:03 pm

    @k-dawg 74

    “and
    #5 Put it in your Roth IRA and let it grow.”

    Or in a CD or whatever OR put it in your yearly H( . Y . )TERS rainy day lunch fund/savings. You can do many things with it but taking it off the price of the car is not one of them. I dunno about anyone else but the numbers I see on the loan papers are the only numbers I consider.  

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  79. Jackson
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jackson
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:04 pm

    I’ve said it in other threads, and I’ll say it again: I predict that the range-extended mode on the Volt will get better mpg than what we have been hearing from GM (and each other). It’s in GM’s interest at this moment to keep the actual data under wraps, and until the figure appears on a sticker, there’s no one who can really tell anyone else what to expect.

    John1701a, no data for you! And none for Toyota, either.  

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  80. Bruce J
    Vote -1 Vote +1Bruce J
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:08 pm

    #68 Tim

    Ok, let’s use your assumption of $4/gallon gas. It then takes 25 years to recoup the cost of the Volt. And the Prius saves $11,600 over a typical 5 year lifespan.

    What is the break even price? Gas would have to hit $20/gallon for the Volt to be cheaper to operate over a 5 year span than a Prius. That seems unlikely.  

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  81. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:16 pm

    #80
    Bruce J
    _____________________________
    #68 Tim

    Ok, let’s use your assumption of $4/gallon gas. It then takes 25 years to recoup the cost of the Volt. And the Prius saves $11,600 over a typical 5 year lifespan.

    What is the break even price? Gas would have to hit $20/gallon for the Volt to be cheaper to operate over a 5 year span than a Prius. That seems unlikely
    ____________________________________
    What is the direct capital value of changing the way the world makes cars, lowering respiratory destroying pollutants, and keeping US troops out of energy driven conflicts, and billions of petro dollars in NA, will those things affect my quality of life and others who would choose E-REV’s.  

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  82. Mitch
    Vote -1 Vote +1Mitch
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:16 pm

    #15 John1701a

    you say the non plug in Prius gets 55 MPG, but in the Obama post you say “…Prius real-world lifetime average for me as of 117,567 miles is 47.6 MPG”

    Creative licence?

    #39 dc

    “I’m sick of the 100, 150, 160 miles per gallon “guesses” ”

    There is no way to test the Volt really I mean it is a totally new vehicle.

    The Prius / Insight use the ICE at various times regardless of the battery, so at 70MPH, the ICE will run it burns gas, hit the accelrator, it uses gas, and if the std is based on a 20 mile drive you can determine a MPG rating.

    With the Volt, No gasoline is used for 40 miles, meanining that for 40 miles its MPG is infinite. if the ICE runs at a sweet spot for RPM in normal charge sustaining mode and gets 66MPG at THAT rpm, then for a 60 mile drive the MPG is about 180, at 80 mile its down to 135, and so on..so the guessing is EXACTLY that, same as the pricing..NO ONE KNOWS..  

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  83. Shawn Marshall
    Vote -1 Vote +1Shawn Marshall
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:20 pm

    When GM emerges as a government/labor owned entity, I won’t be able to buy a Volt. Maybe if they ever go private again. I sure as help ain’t buying a car from this government or the UAW. Very sad times for US industry. Say goodbye to the USA.  

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  84. bintoo
    Vote -1 Vote +1bintoo
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:20 pm

    How many Volts do you think GM will sell with Oil at $150 and $200 a jug. Oil will be up that high within 2 years.

    Considering the Prius still uses gasoline and its fuel economy didn’t improve that much with a plugin battery you can see why Toyota wants thing to stay as they are.

    A car that has its primary fuel source as Electric is critical. A parallel GAS/Electric vehicle is totally different from a vehicle like the Volt that uses gasoline or diesel as a backup/extender.  

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  85. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:21 pm

    Mitch #82

    …well in band camp this year we’ll get a consistent 55 miles per gallon with the next generation Prius…  

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  86. eightzero
    Vote -1 Vote +1eightzero
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:24 pm

    I spend money on many things that make no economic sence: like life insurance or charitable contributions. I shop in stores that are reliable and predictable, and am willing to pay a price for that. I avoid Wal-Mart and Sears because of their practices, even though they might have lower prices.

    I want a Volt because I want one, not because it saves me money. I will buy one so long as the price is such that I can buy it. I’d like a yacht and airplane too, neither of which make economic sense, but I can’t afford either.

    For decades, the car companies have been selling cars based on “blowing us away” with image. The image has been fast, powerful, sexy sleek lines…none of that matters to me. I think it is cool, sexy, satisfying to *never buy another drop of that foul stuff ever, ever again.*

    If I had the money in the bank, I’d buy 3500 plug in vehicles right now. It would be so satisfying to make gifts out of them to so many people.  

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  87. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:24 pm

    #83
    Shawn Marshall

    Very sad times for US industry.
    _____________
    Yes you’re right, a lot of people are facing terribly adverse and painful situations from the downturn in the economy.  

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  88. noel park
    Vote -1 Vote +1noel park
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:25 pm

    #84 bintoo:

    I fear that you are correct Or shortly thereafter for sure.  

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  89. Dan Petit
    Vote -1 Vote +1Dan Petit
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:30 pm

    I have a hunch that there is no plug-in program for Toyota at all, or, Toyota’s technical progress has hit major roadblocks!
    When someone from a major auto company can not clearly state what all of their own internal marketers already know, that plug-ins will indeed be in the highest of demand, then what that representative is really trying to cover up, it seems to me, is that they do not have the money or technology or intent to do it, or, are just projecting a marketing fabrication.
    The race is on whether or not Toyota Motor Corporation is ready or not. My budget is committed to be prepared to buy a Voltec vehicle.
    I have 17 more months in which to do that.
    Just wait until you finally see what Toyota is actually going to produce. Whomever produces plug-ins, will sell
    ******
    ALL
    ******
    of their plug-ins.
    There is no “element of surprise” in this era of electronic media.
    There are just no secrets as to ongoing benchmarks nowadays.
    During the next 17 months, if Toyota really is going to have any plug-in program that has any meaningful quantities of scale, then that will become obvious between now and then, and, I sincerely hope that they can get started up.
    When the technically-attentive finally come to realize that more and more Americans are holding back from buying anything but an American made Voltec vehicle, these silly representations from other OEM’s will indeed be more readily recognized as being as silly as they really are (excepting, perhaps, to those OEM marketers themselves, who all too often come to believe their own stuff).
    Toyota marketing is better than that, and, they know better than that. This is just more Corporate posturing with lines of BS from Toyota. But the danger to Toyota here, is that their own customers will begin to loose confidence that Toyota Motors is going to be able to produce plug-ins in sufficient quantities and warranted as comparable to GM’s without a “claw-back” lease to secretly replace an overly-utilized traction battery (as determined by the resident software). That would be a way to over-represent and over-market the total systemic capabilities which would be devastating to the battery long-term performance above, say, a three year lease.
    It seems that this comment from Toyota Motors is actually
    “back-pedaling” from my viewpoint, in that they do not yet wish to be able to sell very many plug-ins from their particular technological position. A position which is at least several years behind GM’s. (Boy are their customers going to be ticked-off big time if they do not produce plug-ins in great quantity and quality).
    Dan Petit Austin TX.  

    (Quote)


  90. Michael C. Robinson
    Vote -1 Vote +1Michael C. Robinson
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:31 pm

    Raising the CAFE standard to 42 mpg doesn’t make sense.
    It favors a future of gasoline powered cars over hydrogen.
    The car companies will have to focus on improving gas guzzlers
    when they should be figuring out fuel cells or trying to come
    out with an unbelievable battery breakthrough. The latter is
    unlikely to happen by the way.

    Hydrogen has not lost to gasoline, ethanol, biodiesel, etcetera. Obama and Chu want everyone to think that though.

    Obama and Chu shouldn’t be trying to pick the winner, battery
    electric or fuel cell electric, but they are.

    Why the Obama administration is trying so hard to force fuel
    efficiency standards when long range zero emission vehicles
    are on the verge of being commercialized is beyond me.

    Platinum free fuel cells are going to be a reality soon and they
    are going to be both more durable and a lot cheaper. It is a
    matter of when will fuel cell cars be commercialized, not if.
    Fuel cell cars are the only cars that can go upwards of 500
    miles without using a drop of gasoline or OIL. Even the
    Volt will need OIL. Only fuel cell cars can achieve a decent
    driving range with a reasonably sized fuel tank. Where the
    RAV4 EV had a ton of batteries, fuel cell cars don’t. Current
    fuel cell cars do use batteries, but they are small batteries.

    There is a reason that the Bush administration funded hydrogen
    research and left CAFE standards alone. Fuel cell cars are the
    only kind of cars that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions
    from cars by 80%. Even battery electric cars can’t achieve the
    kind of emission reductions that fuel cell cars can. Fuel cell cars
    are still too expensive and the infrastructure doesn’t exist, but
    the cars are nowhere near as expensive as most people think
    and the infrastructure can be built when the cars are mass produced. Honda is probably the closest to mass producing
    fuel cell cars with it’s dedicated factory for the Honda FCX Clarity.
    A lot of people on here want to malign the Clarity, but have you
    driven one?

    Why is California mostly the only state that has hydrogen
    refueling stations anyways? So they tend not to be 1k cars
    a day stations, but they are better than nothing. I wish the
    car companies, GM included, would increase the distribution
    of hydrogen refueling stations and the number of places
    nationwide where they are testing fuel cell cars.

    I understand that the Chevy Volt hydrogen is a better fuel cell
    car than the Sequel. I sure would like to test drive one.  

    (Quote)


  91. Adrian
    Vote -1 Vote +1Adrian
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:37 pm

    Tax credits are a joke. The only people who can afford a car over 30k are the ones funding the tax credit… Big picture people. Marketing this on cost saving will undercut the marketing when it is proven false. The Volt is about national security and reducing dependence on FOREIGN oil from our enemies.  

    (Quote)


  92. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:38 pm

    Dan and Michael # 89 and 90, posting one after the other. I know right away I will be scrolling my cursor…a lot!

    Dan I love your posts, amazing knowledge! Michael, I feel your pain!  

    (Quote)


  93. Lawrence
    Vote -1 Vote +1Lawrence
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:38 pm

    Dave G @50

    Your MPG comparison makes sense, but you take into account a single category of user. In an ideal world, your data could tend to fit to your estimated reality.

    But there is the limit, because you assume that the standard way to use the volt is to have it fully recharged every night. I fear that in reality, if we keep that scheme in mind, this car might only fit potential customers who have the opportunity to charge that optimal way. But there are requirements for that. You need a place you can park your Volt overnight with a 110/220V plug nearby. It’s a must be condition in order to get the MPG you claim at your calculation.

    So does your calculation really reflect the reality?

    On a personal note, if Volt can:

    1. Get a good MPG value after full battery depletion (something comparable to any concurrent prius-like)

    AND

    2. Be able to charge it on an standard outlet to grant me low-cost 40miles range

    People will buy it.

    On a side note: this car being a 4-seater is, imo, the biggest design mistake GM has done.  

    (Quote)


  94. ClarksonCote
    Vote -1 Vote +1ClarksonCote
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:38 pm

    #71 CaptJackSparrow,

    I know a co-worker who just installed a solar system big enough to meet all his energy needs for roughly $7500 after tax credits and incentives in NY, so a not-so-small system is actually possible! ;)

    The problem, of course, is the large up front cost here too (just like the Volt). He installed a 5kW array, cost $32k with a net cost after incentives of only $7.1k  

    (Quote)


  95. Adrian
    Vote -1 Vote +1Adrian
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:44 pm

    #90 Michael , dead on accurate. Obama is about paying his GE buddies off more than advancing true science. The dirty little problem hydrogen brings that politicians don’t want to talk about is how much liberty and freedom the fuel cell gives the individual.

    A true green approach to getting personal vehicles off gasoline/oil is to go diesel until fuel cells are done. The people who have driven a fuel cell vehicle know the technology is very dialed in.

    I believe it is Norway that has a major road set up to support fuel cell cars they already have running right now. I saw this on ABC news I believe about 2 years ago. In 5 years fuel cells from Honda will hit the market and GM will be behind the curve again.  

    (Quote)


  96. Jackson
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jackson
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:48 pm

    Michael Robinson (#90):

    You are far from the first pro-hydrogen advocate to visit this board. You don’t get many rises out of the regulars because the arguments to be made against hydrogen have been made so many, many times before, and we’re almost sick to death of the continuing necessity.

    Even if you can make a hydrogen fuel cell out of a box of kleenex and a dill pickle, you still have the problems of how you
    make hydrogen
    (without using more energy doing so than you could using that energy in it’s original form)
    store hydrogen
    (not just at the hydrogen station but onboard the car, without turning either into bombs)
    deliver hydrogen
    (from where it is created to where it is dispensed)

    Battery storage efficiency is increasing with such breathtaking speed that it is hard to imagine the complete hydrogen-use technology which could outstrip it in the foreseeable future.

    The distribution system for electricity is already in place, for one thing.

    At best, hydrogen in cars is a technology for another day. The good news is that when it finally makes sense, it can simply replace the range-extender in a highly developed EREV technology.

    Anybody else want to take another crack? Remember, let him down easy if you can.  

    (Quote)


  97. Cautious Fan
    Vote -1 Vote +1Cautious Fan
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:49 pm

    Breaking news. U.S. govt to buy GM in return for $15,000,000,000 debt forgiveness.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSN1944155820090519  

    (Quote)


  98. CaptJackSparrow
    Vote -1 Vote +1CaptJackSparrow
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:51 pm

    @ClarksonCote

    Yeah, after you install the Solar package, you then also get a State rebate and Municipal rebate here in CA,. This would appear to be double dipping but just as the PHEV rebate, you don’t see it till the following year.  

    (Quote)


  99. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:54 pm

    #95
    Adrian In 5 years fuel cells from Honda will hit the market and GM will be behind the curve again.
    ______________________
    I appreciate your enthusiasm I really do. But you do realize that right now GM has a test fleet of 100 Fuel cell Equinoxes Vs. no production intent Volts in existence? Many commentors here, as well as GM spokespeople have said fuel cell and battery electric vehicles differ only in where their electricity for propulsion is generated.  

    (Quote)


  100. Jackson
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jackson
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 3:58 pm

    Adrian (#95):

    “The dirty little problem hydrogen brings that politicians don’t want to talk about is how much liberty and freedom the fuel cell gives the individual”

    What are you smoking, Adrian; and did you bring enough for everybody?

    Hydrogen will eliminate liberty and freedom from a giant energy conglomerate providing transportation fuel. The hydrogen provider of the future may well replace our “Big Oil” of today.

    How much better would it be to use electricity from the many sources available (big companies sure, but also rooftop solar, backyard windmills, etc)?  

    (Quote)


  101. Michael C. Robinson
    Vote -1 Vote +1Michael C. Robinson
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:00 pm

    If demand is low for plug-in electric vehicles because they are a
    new thing and people aren’t impressed with existing hybrids, some
    of which don’t get better gas mileage than conventional vehicles,
    then I expect the Volt will be a hard sell. Any vehicle that gets less
    than 35 mpg these days, unless it’s a truck, is a gas guzzler. That
    said, there are a lot of conventional cars now that can achieve 35
    mpg and among hybrids the improvement is no more than 2x that
    at a huge price premium.

    If I’m going to pay a LOT for a green car,
    I want a zero emissions vehicle. That limits me to a Tesla or a
    fuel cell car like the Clarity. If I lived in Southern Cal, I could lease
    a Clarity potentially for $21,600 for 3 years. The Tesla on the
    other hand would set me back $100k and the battery would last who knows how long. Worse, the Tesla $100k sports car is a 2 seater that doesn’t have room for multiple passengers.

    The Clarity wouldn’t be leased for 3 years for $21,600 if it costs
    a million dollars to build it. At $21,600, you aren’t even at 1/10th
    of 1 million dollars. I wonder what it really costs to build a Clarity?

    In 2015 all the automakers, GM included, are planning on trying
    to commercialize fuel cell cars. That is only 6 years away. Note
    that E-Flex allows swapping out the gas generator on the Volt
    with a fuel cell.  

    (Quote)


  102. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:00 pm

    #96
    Jackson

    Anybody else want to take another crack? Remember, let him down easy if you can.
    ________________________
    I just can’t do it this time, I remember seeing some fellas like that in grade school. Poor little guys. The good news is that several have tried to take a crack at it, and he seems to bounce back OK.  

    (Quote)


  103. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:06 pm

    #101
    Michael C. Robinson
    ____________
    Part of the reason the Clarity is over a million is that each is a one off model since no mass production volumes exist, mass production tooling doesn’t exist either. Hand bending a bunch of parts with custom tools is expensive.

    Also Just a guess, but a $350,000 fuel cell isn’t helping the economics here either.  

    (Quote)


  104. Jackson
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jackson
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    Michael C. Robinson (#101):

    “If I’m going to pay a LOT for a green car, I want a zero emissions vehicle.”

    How much the Volt will cost has not been released; but I think you would find it comfortably below the cost of a Clarion, if you could find one for sale.

    Does it not interest you at all to have a zero emissions vehicle for most of your daily driving (even if it means having to buy gas for a once in awhile trip)?

    I understand that you may have a daily commute well over 40 miles, in which case the Volt might not be the car for you.

    With the problem of developing a complete, uniquely new kind of infrastructure along with all the on-board technology required (especially during challenging economic times), I expect you’ll wait for a hydrogen car for longer than 6 years. An electric-drive car would at least give you a foretaste of your ideal car (differing only in the source of the electricity).  

    (Quote)


  105. Jtron
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jtron
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:16 pm

    I HATE the fact that everything i read on this website turns into an attempt to burn Toyota. We have just purchased a new 2010 Prius, and when the volt is available, we will purchase one of those too, but we will continue to drive the Prius. You people should really open your minds.

    It’s not about who does it, GM, Toyota, Honda, i don’t care, i just want well designed high tech transportation that makes sense. I buy cars from all brands (that have green cars), because i want them all to have money to spend on R&D. The more minds we have working on solutions, the more solutions we’ll have.  

    (Quote)


  106. MarkinWI
    Vote -1 Vote +1MarkinWI
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:19 pm

    Zach @ #76 – I do watch TV, and I had never heard of the RAV-4 EV until I watched “Who Killed the Electric Car?” The key to this little mystery is solved by the following quote:

    “Reinert drew on Toyota’s experience with the RAV4 EV. He said Toyota spent 15 times as much marketing per vehicle as traditional cars, yet only 300 were sold in a year.”

    Take the aveage Toyota ad budget per car line, divide it by all cars sold to get to the “per car” basis, and multiply that times 300 = squat. Multiply squat by 15 and you get not much more than squat. If you didn’t live in CA, you probably had zero chance to see any such ad. The idea that RAV4 EV sales provides a baseline for sales of any future electric car is ridiculous, at least, assuming a company wants to sell them.

    P.S. Jtron – I’m not trying to burn Toyota here. If a GM spokesperson said a similar thing, I’d make the same comment.  

    (Quote)


  107. Jackson
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jackson
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:20 pm

    Jtron,

    Hang around a little longer, and you may see where a lot of it comes from. We get a lot of fire from Toyota fanboys here which prompts a lot of the burn you’re seeing. I have a Toyota myself (though not a Prius).

    Official proclamations from Toyota concerning the first real threat to it’s hybrid dominance haven’t helped much, either.

    “The more minds we have working on solutions, the more solutions we’ll have.”

    You will also see a lot of comments expressing precisely this; “the more the merrier.”  

    (Quote)


  108. Bruce J
    Vote -1 Vote +1Bruce J
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:22 pm

    #81 jeffhre
    “What is the direct capital value of changing the way the world makes cars, lowering respiratory destroying pollutants, and keeping US troops out of energy driven conflicts, and billions of petro dollars in NA, will those things affect my quality of life and others who would choose E-REV’s.”

    If those things are important to you, the value is priceless. If they are not, the value is $0.

    The bottom line is that price is the number 1 factor in a car purchase. If you can’t afford something you can’t afford it no matter what the intangible benefits are.

    Volt buyers will be purchasing the car for the intangible benefits, but value will never be one of them. There will always be cheaper options.  

    (Quote)


  109. Edwin Mang
    Vote -1 Vote +1Edwin Mang
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:27 pm

    Let Me see Tesla offered the S Model sedan at the beginning of this month and has over 1000 pre ordered .

    No market at all is there ?

    Is that more than they can make ?  

    (Quote)


  110. john1701a
    Vote -1 Vote +1john1701a
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:29 pm

    you say the non plug in Prius gets 55 MPG, but in the Obama post you say “…Prius real-world lifetime average for me as of 117,567 miles is 47.6 MPG”

    Creative licence?
    _________________________

    No, model confusion.

    The 2010 has indeed been getting 55 MPG. But the avarage from the other topic is from the 2004 model.  

    (Quote)


  111. CaptJackSparrow
    Vote -1 Vote +1CaptJackSparrow
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:32 pm

    @Bruce J 108

    “The bottom line is that price is the number 1 factor in a car purchase. If you can’t afford something you can’t afford it no matter what the intangible benefits are.”

    I was just running some numbers on this myself and here’s what I did….
    Savings calculations:
    Assume:
    Volt costs nothing to drive, for arguments sake and no math….lol
    Prius gets 50MPG
    Insurance claims give a max driving per year of 12,000 miles.
    All “Ideal” conditions.

    OK, now, as specualtion gives us, the volt will be at least $37,500.00. We all know the $7500 will do NOTHING for your loan at signing/buying the Volt. We know the Prius and the Insight base models will be close to $22,500.00. This gives us a difference of $15,000.00.

    Prius yearly OPEC juice consumption per year:
    12000 / 50 = 240 Gallons (Close to DaveG’s figures…)

    Volt yearly OPEC juice consumption per year:
    Assume it’s all free because it’s all electric, so its “0 Gallons”

    Now let’s take a hypothetical OPEC juice price of $2.75/gal

    Prius
    $2.75/gal * 240 Gallons = $660

    So now what we have is $660 a year in gas to drive the Prius for 12,000 miles in one year.
    We’ll again pretend the volt is free to drive because it is electric. This means the Volt will save you $660/year in OPEC juice compared to a Prius that costs $15,000.00 less than the Volt.

    Now we need to see when we can recoup from the differnce in cost so we have the equation…
    15000 / 660 = 22.7272 YEARS
    ———————————————————–

    Now that doesn’t look good for a consumer when making the decision. So lets take it to a bad case OPEC scenario and say they got pissed at the US and gas is going for $6.66/gal (The devil sign…..lol).

    Prius
    $6.66/gal * 240 Gallons = $1598.40

    So now what we have is $1598.40 a year in gas to drive the Prius for 12,000 miles in one year.
    We’ll again pretend the volt is free to drive because it is electric. This means the Volt will save you $1598.40/year in OPEC juice compared to a Prius that costs $15,000.00 less than the Volt. It’s starting to look better.

    Now we need to see when we recoup from the difference in cost at $6.66/gal (The devil sign…..lol) so we have the equation…
    15000 / 1598.4 = 9.38 YEARS

    So the conclusion is essentially this. At a worst case OPEC scenario it would take almost 10years to recoup the cost difference of the Volt compared to a Prius and over 20 years if OPEC juice is below $3/gallon. Most people don’t even keep their cars past 6 years. I on the other hand have cars older than 11yrs.
    For poor folks like the trailer park maggot I am, this doesn’t sound anywhere close to a financially feasble purchase.  

    (Quote)


  112. Tim
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tim
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:33 pm

    Bruce J (#80)

    Do you really believe that people buy cars based on their economics?

    Then why aren’t we all driving the cheapest car available which happens to be the Chevy Aveo5 built by Daewoo in South Korea? It’s only about $10K.

    http://cars.about.com/od/helpforcarbuyers/tp/10_cheapest.htm

    The REAL fact is that MOST cars are bought and sold on emotion. The car is the 2nd most expensive thing most people will EVER buy and even HOUSES are bought on emotion.

    The Volt is MUCH more attractive car for the sheik “geeks”, “greens” and “Buy American” types plus why would people want to waste their money on 12 year old “hybrid” technology when they could own a REAL electric car without the sacrifice of range-anxiety?

    Voltec is the latest, greatest technology and one hell of a status symbol this FACE will make hybrid Prius owners “green” with envy.

    It won’t take long before the Volt outsells the Prius!

    Toyota and GM both know this and it is why GM refuses to defund the project even in the face of bankruptcy.

    In 15 years, the evolution of the car will include:

    “Hybrid technology, small electric motors coupled to the ICE drive train, helped improve the gas mileage of the ICE car. Then we wanted to plug-in our hybrids to further improve gas mileage so we rapidly improved battery technology.

    In face, batteries improved so fast that EVs moved into the mainstream even before the plug-in hybrids could take hold. It was a natural evolutionary course.

    Some EVs had range-extenders, but those used for city commuting didn’t need them. Battery tech continued to rapidly evolve. This allowed for rapid battery charging.

    Finally, the range-extender “training wheels” were no longer necessary. People became used to nightly charging and using the rapid chargers on longer trips.

    That’s why only heavy trucks, boats, ships and airplanes use liquid fuels.”  

    (Quote)


  113. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:37 pm

    #108
    Bruce J

    Volt buyers will be purchasing the car for the intangible benefits, but value will never be one of them.
    _________________
    Ist generation Prius wasn’t much of a car, was subsidized by Toyota and still didn’t return value to investors as return on invested capital. Interested buyers still made the purchase and Toyota was able to continually improve the process until they are reportedly making quite a bit of money on each 3r gen Prius sold.

    A similar situation could play out for the Volt and; there are many values at stake beyond the net dollars I hand over to a car dealer.  

    (Quote)


  114. Frank D
    Vote -1 Vote +1Frank D
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:53 pm

    GM could easily leap frog Toyota’s lead with an aggressive marketing campaign focused on educating the public on the difference in the Voltec platform. This is critical for GM.  

    (Quote)


  115. Bud
    Vote -1 Vote +1Bud
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:02 pm

    That’s because the Prius is ugly which was overcome by poeples desire to save money on gas.

    But it doesn’t matter because as much as I am a Volt fan as I won’t buy a car from a government/union owned company.  

    (Quote)


  116. Mark Bartosik
    Vote -1 Vote +1Mark Bartosik
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:05 pm

    BE CAREFUL WHAT JOKES YOU MAKE

    I think that it was Bob Lutz that made the joke about the Volt concept that would probably have done better in a wind tunnel if placed in backwards.

    I just heard on NPR (National Public Radio) a quote where it sounded like that was a fact being reported about the Volt. Thus ignoring that it was a joke, that the joke was only about the concept and had never been near a wind tunnel, and making GM sound a bit on the dumb side.  

    (Quote)


  117. Frank B
    Vote -1 Vote +1Frank B
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:09 pm

    Toyota is just trying to talk down the Volt. He says 3500 units, I say 135,000 units or more. The gas price is already starting to climb, went over $60 today. The American people have to remember the $4.50 gas last summer, it will go over $4 again and the then the American people will start yelling, “Where’s my electric car!”  

    (Quote)


  118. Doug Korthof
    Vote -1 Vote +1Doug Korthof
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:15 pm

    But then, Reinart is an idiot, and just spouting the Toyota company line.

    It wasn’t a year, it was only 6 months, there was no big marketing campaign, they were only sold via a handful of dealers (you had to know, if you went to a Toyota dealer, they would tell you it didn’t exist), and the cancellation had nothing to do with lack of demand.

    In reality, Toyota sold the RAV4-EV from May to Nov., 2002, after Chevron funded the lawsuit against them concerning NiMH batteries.

    Toyota announced a settlement with Chevron in Dec., 2002, which precluded building the car or batteries, none of which can be purchased at ANY price after that date. In exchange, Toyota paid Chevron et al. $30 million US Dollars, and received the right to use NiMH batteries that were too small to plug in, for example, the Prius 1.3 kW battery.

    So ending the Toyota RAV4-EV program had nothing to do with demand; in reality, it was a bargaining chip between litigants. Toyota engaged in limited sales of the RAV4-EV, perhaps as a threat, and, after the lawsuit was settled, cancelled the program.

    Don’t forget, this was the ONLY time a member of the Auto Alliance willingly sold an Electric car to the public; it must have freaked out GM and Standard Oil, which had gone to such lengths to confiscate and destroy each and every production EV.

    To Toyota’s credit, they dealt with us honorably, agreeing to sell us the car for either cash or credit — so, they took our money, which GM refused to do — and didn’t try to play GM games.

    It was refreshing; and without the Toyota sales, the “dontcrush” campaign probably would have failed, the vigil would not have happened, and the “Who Killed the Electric Car” movie would not have brought GM to its knees. They thought the EV1 was dead and forgotten, but it rose out of the grave and bit them right on the toucass, thanks to the REALITY of the RAV4-EV, which showed, and still show, that Electric cars ARE real and practical.

    But in Dec., 2002, Toyota told me that the program had been cancelled as of Nov., 2002, and that they had notified the world by taking the signup sheet off the website!! Toyota stated that they would honour all those who had actually put down a $500 deposit; but it took them 9 months to build and deliver the last of them, because demand outstripped their available production. I have the last RAV4-EV ever sold, on Sept. 13, 2003, it had lots of “frankenstein” parts like faulty mirror, bad A/C, etc., because it was cobbled together with great difficulty.  

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  119. Dave G
    Vote -1 Vote +1Dave G
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:22 pm

    #93 Lawrence,

    Using a standard 110v outlet, the Volt charges from empty to full in 6.5 hours. It draws about the same current as a regular vacuum cleaner.  

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  120. MarkH
    Vote -1 Vote +1MarkH
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:33 pm

    How would maintenance costs compare between Volt and Prius?
    I spend as much on garage service as I do on gas. If I only use the genset a quarter of the time, then I should only have a quarter of the service costs.
    If that’s true, and the sales price difference was $10,000 I would have the difference paid off in eight years with my driving habits.
    What about depreciation?
    If both vehicles depreciate at about the same rate, the starting difference for those buying used might only $6000 or so. Personally, I wouldn’t care much if the battery performance starts to slip by that point. For my commute, a PHEV20 would work.  

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  121. Dave G
    Vote -1 Vote +1Dave G
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:34 pm

    #63 Bruce J,

    The Volt will cost less than $30K after tax credits. A well equipped Prius costs around $25K.

    Gas prices around here are $2.25 and rising. At $2.25/gallon, the Volt saves about $430/year on gas. Over the 10-year life of the car, that would be $4300.

    Bottom line: I would gladly pay $700 more for the Volt to avoid going to the gas station.  

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  122. Dave G
    Vote -1 Vote +1Dave G
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:42 pm

    #120 MarkH Says: Personally, I wouldn’t care much if the battery performance starts to slip by that point. For my commute, a PHEV20 would work.
    ————————————————————————————–
    The Volt has the same 8kWh of usable energy over the lifetime of the car. They do this by changing the “empty” and “full” points, like this:

    VOLT BATTERY AGING … New … 5 years … 10 years … End of life
    Total capacity (kWh) ……… 16 …… 14.5 ……… 13 ………… 12
    Charger shuts off at ……… 80% ….. 82% ……… 85% ……… 87%
    ICE turns on at ……………. 30% ….. 27% ……… 23% ……… 20%
    Available kWh ……………….. 8 …….. 8 …………. 8 …………. 8  

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  123. Mark Z
    Vote -1 Vote +1Mark Z
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:45 pm

    Give me the freedom to buy enough PLUG-IN electric range for my travels.

    300 miles for Tesla S
    40 miles for VOLT with range extender

    If an i2 Segway can be rolled into the cargo area, either one will work for me.

    Toyota? Where’s their plug in?

    No Plug – No Sale  

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  124. Lawrence
    Vote -1 Vote +1Lawrence
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:47 pm

    Dave G @ 119

    “Using a standard 110v outlet, the Volt charges from empty to full in 6.5 hours. It draws about the same current as a regular vacuum cleaner”

    ————–

    Yes, I know, that’s why you must have your volt parked for 6.5 hour nearby a plug, every day, if u want to make full benefit of what your calculation claims. So does the mass GM aims for fit to this requirement?

    In my opinion, the key element still remains on the ICE. If it has a good MPG when running after full battery depletion, they have a strong concurrent to Prius like vehicles. The 40Miles plugin mode is.. a welcomed extension.

    I believe American Automotive industry suffers now it’s lazyness in ICE improvement technology for all these past years. There was never the pressure to enhance ICE technology in order to build a strong knowledge and experience in smaller and more efficient engines. Basically due to the low price of gas.The result? Volt gen 1 ICE is ran from an Austrian based ICE company.  

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  125. carcus1
    Vote -1 Vote +1carcus1
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:57 pm

    GM’s Chief of Marketing on hybrid viability

    Not one time does he mention “volt”.
    He clearly says hybrid is not viable. (They’re not willing to pay for two powertrains, 10:18 in).

    Editor-in-Chief Eddie Alterman Interviews GM’s Mark LaNeve – Car and Driver
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8J0R7clXCA

    /don’t shoot me, I’m just delivering LaNeve’s message  

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  126. jbfalaska
    Vote -1 Vote +1jbfalaska
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 5:57 pm

    The electric car is inevitable. Gas/Oil is going to run out. And the winner to the next generation of supplying the consumer will belong to……. First to fly and get it right wins.  

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  127. noel park
    Vote -1 Vote +1noel park
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 6:01 pm

    #97 Cautious Fan:

    What an amazing link. Thanks. “Interesting Times” ain’t in it!

    #112 Tim & #113 jeffhre:

    Right!  

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  128. Innovator
    Vote -1 Vote +1Innovator
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 6:06 pm

    Isn’t Toyota the company that said Lithium was no good and they were sticking with their Nickle-Metal-Hydride batteries, then recently did an about-face and announced that the new plug-in Pirus would have lithium batteries.

    The only reason they say there is a small market is because they are not ready for it yet. You can bet they are planning to build the plug-in Pirus by the 100 thousands!  

    (Quote)


  129. Bruce J
    Vote -1 Vote +1Bruce J
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 6:15 pm

    #Dave G 121

    You state the Volt price with absolute certainty, do you work for GM?

    You can’t factor tax credits for the Volt, while using a top option package Prius. A well equipped Volt might be $42k also.

    Apples to apples, the price difference base model to base model will probably be $15k based on the current sentiment from GM. Given your fuel savings of $430 a year, it would take you 34 years of driving a Volt to make that up. For a typical 5 year ownership, that’s $12,850 more for the Volt. Numbers don’t lie.  

    (Quote)


  130. Dick G.
    Vote -1 Vote +1Dick G.
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 6:19 pm

    Listen to me…… When (not if) the price of gasoline hits $6.00/gal. the demand for electric automobiles will be high. Oil is not renewable in the short term.  

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  131. Bruce J
    Vote -1 Vote +1Bruce J
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 6:20 pm

    #112 Tim
    “Do you really believe that people buy cars based on their economics?”

    Yes I do. What you can afford gives you the bracket of prices to work with. Then within that bracket you pick the car you want the most.

    I have a strong emotional response and urge to buy a Ferrari Enzo. But my economic situation does not allow that possibility. As much as I would want to buy on emotion, I have no choice but to buy on economics.  

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  132. CaptJackSparrow
    Vote -1 Vote +1CaptJackSparrow
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 6:37 pm

    @Dick G. 130

    Look at the numbers on my Post 111.
    Although demand WILL be there, the socioeconimic viability for an individual buy one will not. Why? Because when demand is high the price generally will follow it. As I posted, even at $6.66/gallon it’s almost 10years to recoup the front end cost.

    I’m not flamin on the Volt, I’m just saying GM better price it right.  

    (Quote)


  133. alex_md
    Vote -1 Vote +1alex_md
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 6:56 pm

    Bottom line – you can’t compare the electrics with Prius since you don’t know what the price if gas going to be 10 years from now. Buying volt is like buying Prius with 3000 gal of gas included.  

    (Quote)


  134. alex_md
    Vote -1 Vote +1alex_md
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 7:09 pm

    And by the way some European countries thinking about banning gasoline cars in as early as 2015.  

    (Quote)


  135. Vincent
    Vote -1 Vote +1Vincent
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 7:36 pm

    Not to hijack the thread but some good news for GM. Camaros are sold out with a waiting list similar to the Volt.

    GM is said to be producing 100,000 Camaros this year.
    Nice!

    The guy at the dealership was nice enough to walk me around back and show me a customers Black SS Camaro waiting to be picked up.

    They have 20 sales people and each one said to have 25 deep minimum waiting for one.
    They do not get to sit on the lot….they are gone.

    With their first Camaro they did an invite for viewing. 500 people showed up.

    It did look very good and better than the car show models I viewed in terms of fit and finish. Looks like quality for sure.  

    (Quote)


  136. JEC
    Vote -1 Vote +1JEC
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 8:15 pm

    Oh Mr Robinson, you are a persistent fellow!

    I thought you dropped off the H bus after the govt’ announced they were basically shelving H funding.

    Please go back an re-read all prior anti-H posts, then remind yourself why your keep coming to this site. A nice H site would be a better place for you (Maybe they even enjoy MechWarrior!)  

    (Quote)


  137. CorvetteGuy
    Vote -1 Vote +1CorvetteGuy
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 8:27 pm

    Here’s an interesting side note:

    The government takeover continues. GMAC Bank (Financial Services) has just announced that they are changing their name to “Ally Bank”. I suppose that is meant to give us warm fuzzies that the government is now our “ally” as we try to exist during a depression.

    [visit: allybank.com]

    I just thought of something… If our government owns the manufacturing, and the selling, and the financing of the auto industry, doesn’t that make them a MONOPOLY ? Can’t we sue them under the anti-trust laws?  

    (Quote)


  138. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 8:28 pm

    #116
    Mark Bartosik

    BE CAREFUL WHAT JOKES YOU MAKE

    I think that it was Bob Lutz that made the joke about the Volt concept that would probably have done better in a wind tunnel if placed in backwards.

    I just heard on NPR (National Public Radio) a quote where it sounded like that was a fact being reported about the Volt. Thus ignoring that it was a joke, that the joke was only about the concept and had never been near a wind tunnel, and making GM sound a bit on the dumb side.
    ________________________
    I was listening to that today, isn’t it amazing what gets passed off as the truth. I learned a long time ago that any time I see or hear something in the media that I am very familiar with, that there were always multiple mistakes.

    I was listening to the guy and marveled that I agreed with him about everything he said about what would be needed to increase fuel economy. In fact it was almost exactly what I was thinking to my self when the CAFE numbers were announced.

    Then the FUD about putting the Volt in backwards. I hope he meant it as a joke in that no engineer or manager in their right mind would put it in backwards in view of the costs and limits on valuable wind tunnel time. Unless they were planning on retiring soon and…wait a second…maybe someone’s pink tie could have been on a little too tight that day after all!  

    (Quote)


  139. Mark Bartosik
    Vote -1 Vote +1Mark Bartosik
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 8:28 pm

    RE #111 and 132 CaptJackSparrow

    —————
    You fail to account for the $7500 except to say that does nothing for you at loan signing time. This fails to account for demographics.

    There is a demographic that pay cash, and that demographic figure in the $7500 tax credit because they likely pay more than $7500 in federal tax per year, and some are maybe even smart enough to increase their deductions in advance of the purchase to get that $7500 before the end of the tax year.

    So your calculations should use $7500 difference in price not $15000 for that demographic.

    There is also a demographic that will get free fuel for their Volt, e.g. small demographic with excess on site generation (me), or free electricity at work, or crazy low price electricity in either regular or off peak hours.

    To some extent the demographic that it could appeal to is the “I want” rather than “Can I afford” demographic that would otherwise buy a Cadi, Lexus, Merc, BMW, etc.

    Sure this is a different demographic to the Prius, but that does not mean once GM get production up, that demographic might not result in more Volts being sold than Priuses.

    When I have people come round to my house on National Solar Tour (I think about Oct 4th this year), and people ask about pay back, I ask them what vehicle they drove to me house in. Often it is a $30K+ vehicle, cost and payback was not likely their first motivation.

    I doubt that GM will produce less than 10,000 in first year (risk of egg on face). During that time their marketing people will attempt to predict best volume for year 2, they will certainly be looking at demographics like this for advertising.  

    (Quote)


  140. Paul
    Vote -1 Vote +1Paul
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 8:36 pm

    Why are these BS headliner statements never put into context?

    3500 plug in Prius could be right if the option is $10,000 and has only 5 miles of EV mode range as expected from Toyota.

    40 miles + on the other hand is actually usable EV only range.  

    (Quote)


  141. solo
    Vote -1 Vote +1solo
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 8:37 pm

    65 Jim in PA

    If the truth gives you a headache, take an aspirin.

    I for one do not want to give a dime more to the government at ANY level, when they have squandered it on programs that I don’t believe in, that don’t work, and are self serving only to those who work in government to maintain them.

    I do NOT want to live in a U.S. version of a European Union. I do NOT want the government dictating everything I do. I do not want the free press in the pockets of one party like they are now, either the Democrats, Republicans, or their future replacements. I do not want my life savings wiped out by a 12 Trillion dollar (and climbing rapidly) debt.
    A debt that is now likely to make the dollar bill is worth far less than a square of toilet paper of the same size. Obama and Pelosi are Socialists plain and simple. If you believe in Socialism, stand by their side, but don’t ridicule me or anybody else for not joining your little party and don’t be surprised if the country splits in the coming years into 2 nations. I don’t worry about a second civil war, nobody on your side has the guts to join the army.

    Most people who post to this sight are more than happy to give their political beliefs as part of their comments. I plan to continue to do so as well. If it hurts your feelings, please don’t read my posts.  

    (Quote)


  142. Herm
    Vote -1 Vote +1Herm
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 8:39 pm

    They could always offer the plug-in pack as a dealer option.. thus making a profit on it from the beginning.. and perhaps even offer different sizes of packs. Apparently the Prius is being set up for this, the optional pack just plops into the spare tire well.

    ……………………………..

    #55 Texas Says:

    He hopes the Volt will not become huge because that will mean he has to hurry up and get the Prius plug-in ramped up (or even make one that matches the Volt). The batteries are very expensive and the profit margins are questionable. Even GM admits they won’t make money.  

    (Quote)


  143. Dan Petit
    Vote -1 Vote +1Dan Petit
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 8:43 pm

    Hey Dave at 122,
    Terrific data, I need to know also what the voltages and amp hours are for each of how many cells in the Volt? Do you have this data
    also? (14 hour days keep me from browsing much).

    Thanks a bunch for that great info!
    Dan.  

    (Quote)


  144. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 9:16 pm

    solo

    65 Jim in PA

    I don’t worry about a second civil war, nobody on your side has the guts to join the army
    ____________________________
    I’ve been in the Army, a US Army regular, not a weekend warrior, and I’ve come to believe that Americans made a good choice in Obama, and I’ve seen reactions from troops in Iraq who are glad the President is visiting them.

    I know your comment wasn’t directed at me personally and I’ve never felt much of any thing positive for Pelosi either, but there’s a lot of different types of people that think Obama’s a good person and definitely not a socialist.

    Although it’s a good idea for people to vent over things that are disappointing and make them angry, right now I think it’s a good thing that people say things like that about the president over long distances because I think it would truly be a terrible shame if I was to, for an abstract example, invite someone to my home for conversation and they happened to leave, through no fault of their own, in a very different condition than which they arrived.

    This of course is in no way any thing personal toward you, but some things just make a guy want to vent. Time will tell if the Administration is full of socialist thinking or they just couldn’t think of any other timely way to keep the nation out of a world wide depression. As Tag would say be well.  

    (Quote)


  145. Luke
    Vote -1 Vote +1Luke
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 9:32 pm

    BillR @ 46,

    “The Prius isn’t for everybody. For one for instance, it doesn’t help people like BillR deal with feelings of sexual inadequacy.”

    From your perspective, I’m sure this is true. I’m not gay!

    Good news! The new Prissy comes in pink!!

    The gay guys I know are far from inadequate! One gay guy I know is an engineering professor and former skydiving instructor, and his life-partner was a former broadcast technician for ESPN and a Texan. Both are buff crew-cut looking types. In my sample of friends, there’s very little correlation between effeminate and gay — the gay guys really aren’t who you think they are.

    As for gay folks and cars, they’re doing just fine:
    http://www.gaywheels.com/
    Keep in mind that gay car enthusiasts read the same blogs that all car enthusiasts, so this blog only has to cover information that gay car enthusiasts can’t find elsewhere.

    Anyway, I’m 30 and I’m a secular member of the Internet Generation, so gay doesn’t bother me. It doesn’t have anything to do with me — except when people I know who’ve been dealt the gay-card in their lives get kicked around for no reason.

    P.S. The Volt must be effeminate, since Electric Cars Are For Girls:
    http://www.electric-cars-are-for-girls.com/chevy-volt.html  

    (Quote)


  146. microbatman
    Vote -1 Vote +1microbatman
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 9:51 pm

    I N
    T H E S E
    T E S T S

    T O Y O T A I S QUOTING DATA WHERE

    T H E Y U N P L U G G E D T H E BATTERY P L U G!!!!!!!
    T H E Y U N P L U G G E D T H E BATTERY P L U G!!!!!

    Check the data for yourself!!!!

    Read the details of what *** means

    http://avt.inel.gov/pdf/phev/HymotionPriusV2GreenAllRpt.pdf  

    (Quote)


  147. Tom H
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tom H
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:06 pm

    #25 Tim

    I don’t think that Greg Verbrugge is a real person.

    I know Greg is real because I have met him. We were introduced by Art Vandelay.  

    (Quote)


  148. Dan Petit
    Vote -1 Vote +1Dan Petit
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:10 pm

    Another concrete indication that plug-ins will have an enormous market is the
    *****************************
    STATE OF TEXAS
    ****************************
    according to a really smart friend of mine at Austin Energy (our publicly-owned “green-sustainable driven” Electric Utility), the State of Texas has committed to doubling not only the total Wind Energy Generation for the State from 8 GIGAWATTS to 16 GIGAWATTS in the next 4 years, but, to also spend, I believe it was, 3.9 billion dollars on Wind Energy transmission lines to take all that energy into Texas Cities from the North Texas and West Texas Wind Generation Farms.
    These concrete steps taken by our Texas State Legislature and Austin Energy reflect the very highest of confidences with regard to the pending marketplace interests in all kinds of plug-in transportation technologies.
    The critically-advanced thinking, planning, and performing of these far-reaching accomplishments centered within Austin Energy is a clear testimony of what these logical scientific thinkers know is the
    very near future
    of our green electric motoring evolution. We are in the very middle of it at this moment.
    This is why I think that each of these posts is becoming more and more intellectually reflective of our changes, but, these posts are, in my view, also a benchmark in our history as the various interests make their thoughts, trials and challenges known. Voltec vehicles are coming soon, and,
    the Winds of Texas will increasingly power them here.
    Dan Petit Austin TX  

    (Quote)


  149. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:14 pm

    #145
    Luke
    &
    BillR

    Really what’s the point?  

    (Quote)


  150. Tom H
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tom H
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:20 pm

    I avoid Wal-Mart and Sears because of their practices, even though they might have lower prices=======================================================

    So you shop at Kmart and Target because their practices are so much better?  

    (Quote)


  151. Tom H
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tom H
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:32 pm

    Oh Mr Robinson, you are a persistent fellow!
    ———————————————————————————
    Nothing will convince that guy, its a religion with him. But it is clear none of the automakers think hydrogen cars are viable.

    The cost to build an H car seems to have stabilized at about a million dollars per copy. That is why some of these companies maintain 200-300 car fleets which they will lease but never sell. And are not building any more.

    Honda has said it may be able to mass produce H cars in 2017. Toyota has said 2018.

    This is corporate speak for “we have no plans to ever do this, but we dont want to antagonize the H freaks.  

    (Quote)


  152. jeffhre
    Vote -1 Vote +1jeffhre
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:52 pm

    #151
    Tom H

    This is corporate speak for “we have no plans to ever do this, but we dont want to antagonize the H freaks.
    _______________________
    Whoa, whoa, stop wailing on the guy, you see he’s suffering!  

    (Quote)


  153. GM Volt Fan
    Vote -1 Vote +1GM Volt Fan
    Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 10:58 pm

    All the car companies are going to have to electrify their cars more and more in the next 10 years. The new regulations for MPG will make sure of that.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-GreenBusiness/idUSTRE54I71D20090519

    GM may not sell 20,000 Chevy Volts in 2011 but they’ll surely be selling more and more of them every year for the next 10 years. GM will have the Voltec technology “on the shelf” and ready to go for other upcoming vehicles in order to meet the regulations and make a lot of us electric car fans happy campers at the same time. The fatcat oil shieks (Big Oil) will not like it of course. That’s the part that I like the most …. laughing as I drive my Volt past the people filling up their regular cars at gas stations … probably paying $4-6 a gallon in a few years once the world economy kicks in again.

    The other car companies might not like it because they’ll have to dramatically increase their R&D spending to catch up with GM. The most important thing is that this Voltec technology picks up momentum and you start to see the cars on the road as quickly as possible. By 2020, I bet you’ll see PLENTY of Voltec cars on the road. What is now an uncertain technology to use in cars in 2009 will become commonplace by then. People will wonder why previous generations had to drive those loud, polluting, internal combustion engine contraptions back in the “stone age” of the auto industry. :)   

    (Quote)


  154. DonC
    Vote -1 Vote +1DonC
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 12:13 am

    #111 CaptJackSparrow says “For poor folks like the trailer park maggot I am, this doesn’t sound anywhere close to a financially feasble purchase.”

    I’ll add the point, made by others, that you need to consider the $7.5K tax credit somewhere. It is cash back. Taking it off the top seems a reasonable way to do this.

    On the other hand, one has to concede the larger point that the Volt can’t compete on a strictly financial basis with the Prius or, more so, with the Insight. At even $4/gallon you can find a hybrid or an ICE car that will get you from Point A to Point B for less than it will cost you to go the same distance in a Volt. In this regard, note that neither the Prius nor the Insight can compete on a strictly financial basis with a standard ICE alternative. If you doubt this just run the numbers on the hybrid and standard versions of the Camry, Civic, or Fusion.

    Yet the fact that a Prius makes no financial sense hasn’t prevented it from being successful. Quite the opposite. In Toyota City the only factory still operating is the one making the Prius. All the others are shut. In a like vein, here in NA Ford dealers will bargain with the new Fusion but not the hybrid version. Basically the lesson here is that there are people who will pay more for a hybrid than it is worth based on the type of analysis you’ve just done for us.

    The point would be that if you have a unique product it doesn’t have to compete only on a financial basis. Given that you can’t buy an EV at the moment (forgive me for slighting the NmG), GM will have a unique product. People will want it or they won’t. If they want it then $5K won’t matter. That’s the way it always works. Early adopters pay more for being ahead of the curve or first or techno-cool or whatever. It may be silly but that’s the way it works.

    Latter generations can cut the price differential for those with perhaps more sense and less money.  

    (Quote)


  155. Zach
    Vote -1 Vote +1Zach
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 12:50 am

    MarkinWI #106,

    I appreciate it. I never thought of it that way. Cleaver guys at Toyota, lol.  

    (Quote)


  156. Mike D
    Vote -1 Vote +1Mike D
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 1:05 am

    #34 and whoever else believes the Volt is not a financially sound decision:

    It really IS a god financial decision, this should be clear as day!

    A Volt is a $40,000 car that you got for $32,500. In 10 years, your battery warranty will be JUST NOW expiring. Your battery will be nowhere near dead, because what happens when you design a product to only live until ABOUT the end of its warranty? People will treat it just bad enough to where they’ll cash in early on it. Its bad business, that’s why a 10 year old Volt in normal condition will still be good as new and have another 5-10 years of ~80% battery life. It won’t be worth crap like ICE cars are. A 10 year old Volt will be worth what? 15 – 20k? (Remember it’s a $40,000 car, not a $32,500 car, that’s just what YOU paid for it.) So we’ll average 15 and 20k and say it’s worth 18,500. That means you lost $14,000 in the value of the vehicle over 10 years.

    Even at $2.50 a gallon, you’ve turned $12,500 in 10 year fuel costs (15,000 miles a year at 30 MPG for an ICE car) into $1000 for the Volt. (15,000 miles a year, 37 gallons of gas a year roughly). You also have about 5 oil changes instead of 50 with an ICE over 10 years. That’s another $1350, plus no fluid maintenence changes, and less brake wear. So $2000 total for maintenence?

    Your Volt Total 10 years costs are:
    $14,000 in depreciation
    $1,000 in gas and oil changes
    ~$1,500 in electricity?

    $16,500 total 10 year cost of ownership.

    Compare that to my car, a $20,000 2002 Chevy Malibu that i bought brand new. It’s 7.5 years later and now worth $4,000. At 10 years t will be worth $2500 roughly. That’s already $17,500 in losses. Count the $12,500 in gas and $2000 in ICE maintenence and your total 10 years cost for a MODEST AVERAGE JOE 20k CHEVY MALIBU IS:

    $32,000!!!!

    The Volt? $16,500!!

    That’s even at $2.50 a gallon!

    Why do people think it’s not a cost saver?!?!? It beats the crap out of even a modest 20k car!!!  

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  157. Eric E
    Vote -1 Vote +1Eric E
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 2:15 am

    This is completely ridiculous!

    The RAV4 was a decade ago… a decade! And they were only available in California, and they weren’t PHEVs, and of course your only going to get marginally better performance out of a plug-in Prius due to it’s two tiny little pathetic electric motors.

    The number of $100,000.00 electric cars Tesla has sold proves that Toyota’s logic is completely faulty.

    Build REAL PHEVs and sell them NATION WIDE, or lose the business to Tesla, BYD, GM, Nissan, Fisker, and whoever else has a clue.

    (rant off)  

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  158. Lawrence
    Vote -1 Vote +1Lawrence
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 3:42 am

    Mike D @ 156

    “Why do people think it’s not a cost saver”?[...]

    —————————

    Because no one knows the final price of a Volt, neither you in your calculation. Additionaly, you build up your depreciation math based on pure hypothesis. If Volt sells well and brings up loads of satisfaction, value depreciation over year will be low. But if very few are sold, assuming there is not much customer satisfaction, your brand new Volt will simply be valueless over time.

    Additionally, you build up you calculation based on the pattern every owner charges the Volt every day, and is a 40miles daily commuter. That will, imo, never be the reality for the majority of “mass” Volt buyers.  

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  159. BillR
    Vote -1 Vote +1BillR
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 5:18 am

    #149 Jeffhre,

    Since I refer to Luke’s car as the Prissy, he gets all offended and reverts to personal attacks. So I naturally have to respond. He certainly had all the links!

    It’s actually quite humorous how he takes this so seriously.  

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  160. BillR
    Vote -1 Vote +1BillR
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 5:22 am

    Another interesting tidbit on GM meeting the new CAFE standards,

    “GM has plans already to move its fleet to alternative propulsion, including the Chevrolet Volt electric car scheduled for next year. In a viability plan submitted to the federal government, the company said it will have 26 gas-electric hybrid models in 2014, up from 9 this year.

    GM has said it intended for its car fleet to attain a 38.6 mpg average fuel economy by 2015 and its trucks to hit 27.6 mpg, according to that plan. The company would use smaller engines, six-speed automatic transmissions, lighter vehicles, hybrids and all-electric vehicles. ”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=GM%3AUS&sid=aCMGm.nUtLhA  

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  161. Rashiid Amul
    Vote -1 Vote +1Rashiid Amul
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 5:52 am

    #43 alex_md says,

    As for the national security I’d rather use THEIR oil till its dry at the price WE want to pay in USD and keep the remaining of OUR oil for our grand children and let the Middle East go back to riding horses.

    Yup. But I think you meant camels, not horses.  

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  162. NZDavid
    Vote -1 Vote +1NZDavid
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 5:52 am

    lots of good posts today. EricE @ 157 pretty much covers it for me. I did wonder if maybe he meant the Tesla Roadster would only sell 3500 copies?

    Statik Your 109 from yesterday: It’s the time differance thing!
    My electric company is trialing two iMiev’s and I got the data from them. It seems that as our power supply is the same as Japan and we both use right hand drive they view NZ as a good smallish trial market.

    Yep, all prices are NZD, now you can see why I have to save!
    Seriously, I have been keeping track of my daily mileage and the iMiev looks like it will cover 98% of my travel requirements. The rest of the time I would hire a Prius. While 60K is more than I would have liked, it’s not so far from the ~54K the Volt might cost here.  

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  163. Randy
    Vote -1 Vote +1Randy
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 6:31 am

    Did toyota forget to mention that RAV-4EVs are getting $60000 on Ebay when you can find them. When they came out ga was 1.10 a gallon, Try selling them at $3-4 a gallon gas and see what happens.  

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  164. Darius
    Vote -1 Vote +1Darius
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 6:42 am

    3500 too low. GM always has possibity shiping to Europe. No doubt they would be sold during one day.  

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  165. engineer
    Vote -1 Vote +1engineer
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 6:47 am

    Well regardless of the fact that it is a plug in it Sure looks cool, and I think that will lure more people in.  

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  166. StevePA
    Vote -1 Vote +1StevePA
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 6:54 am

    Amusing stuff from Toyota.
    More amusing? Reactions of our resident Toyota apologists to the posters questioning Bill Reinert’s and Toyota’s motives (i.e. calling them out on the BS).
    Brings to mind all the bashing of the Detroit Three over their sales of SUVs and trucks. People had selective memories about the Asian manufacturers falling all over themselves to catch up and capture some of that market – a market for products the customers wanted for many, many years.
    Oh well. I’m sure in some backlot lab center there is a bevy of Toyota engineers reprising the SUV/pickup truck catch-up role, only this time for their version of an EREV. I’m sure it will be a fine product once it hits the streets.
    All to say to our Toyota friends, they too have their miscues and challenges. This late-to-the-EREV party is one. But they’ll be fine again.  

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  167. statik
    Vote -1 Vote +1statik
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 6:59 am

    Side note…but late in the thread. GM has published pics of the ‘Holden Cruze’ which goes on sale in a couple weeks (right hand drive..note 2nd picture:

    Cruze front end:
    http://us.tnpv.net/2009/GMC200905/GMC2009051908982_PV.jpg

    Badging:
    http://us.tnpv.net/2009/GMC200905/GMC2009051910200_PV.jpg

    Interior:
    http://gm.wieck.com/forms/gm/048.jpg?download=030005  

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  168. Herm
    Vote -1 Vote +1Herm
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 7:30 am

    The interior looks very nice.. a shame that we dont get diesels here, too many strict air pollution regs and its about to get worse..  

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  169. RB
    Vote -1 Vote +1RB
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 7:53 am

    Verbrugge said Volt cost projections have actually come down, but not as far as GM would like. He noted the plan to launch Volt remains intact at the present time. However, he said the market would determine for GM how far it would pursue the Volt versus traditional hybrids. “If you don’t see that down the road you’re going to make money, it’s not in anybody’s best interest,” he said.
    —————————————————-

    The phrase “intact at the present time” seems shaky, different from anything we have seen before. Maybe it was just an off-hand comment, though the wording seems carefully chosen.  

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  170. k-dawg
    Vote -1 Vote +1k-dawg
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 8:06 am

    GM stock up big again before the bell. Not sure what’s been going on the last few days?

    Note: its still pretty worthless.  

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  171. Luke
    Vote -1 Vote +1Luke
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 8:10 am

    BillR,

    I don’t take this seriously, but I do think you need to be educated about the labels you attempted to apply to the car, and to me. If you don’t like the Prius, talk about the car. The reason I object to your calling the car a “Prissy” is that it seems like you’re trying add what some might consider negative associations to an excellent car. The name you use doesn’t bother me, but it does appear that you’re trying to convince the world that there’s something wrong with what, in my experience, is an excellent (though quirky) car.

    The “insult” was an attempt to banter to to you in your language, since using words like “prissy” to describe a small car would indicate that slinging insults is the most natural way for you to communicate.  

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  172. charlie h
    Vote -1 Vote +1charlie h
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 8:31 am

    #various BillR… Calls the Toyota Prius a “Prissy.”

    Call it whatever you like; it doesn’t deter people from buying it. If you’re going to let some inadequacy issue rule your life, that’s your problem to work out. Rational people look at the Prius, find that it has a very reasonable price tag, a high quality interior, gets 50mpg and has the interior room of a larger car and they say, “I’ll take it!”

    The Prius sells better than all but 7 of GM’s 70 (*) models. Take away fleet sales and the Toyota Vibe and it probably outsold Pontiac all this year. It sells more than Cadillac and probably more than Buick and Saturn most months. Saab is a bad joke distantly seen in the Prius’ rear-view mirror.

    Dealers like it because, unlike a whole host of models in GM’s lineup (perhaps all of GM’s lineup), they can sell it at a decent price and make a bit of money.

    Laugh away. You remind me of Bob Lutz saying in 2005 that “people don’t want hybrids” when people were lined up around the block to get the Prius. What Bob Lutz should have said was, “We’ll build hybrids people don’t want.” And they did.

    (*) – I admit, it’s hard to say exactly how many models GM has… their monthly sales summary is littered with the corpses and echoes of dead models that take forever to clear from their inventory.  

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  173. Kevin R
    Vote -1 Vote +1Kevin R
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 8:50 am

    What a joke, once again. Toyota trying to rain on our domestic auto company’s once again.

    Gas prices will inevitably rise….they are already. Every Volt GM produces will sell…..I have no doubt about it. I want one so bad but yet I feel dampened because we probably won’t be able to get one here in Michigan. That will not help GM at all. They truly need to roll it out nationwide like a blitz……a steam roller that can’t be stopped…..Toyota be damned.  

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  174. Tagamet
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tagamet
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 8:57 am

    As I understand the HyMotion upgrade, it does improve mpg and allows intermittent all electric, but there is no firm AER. The Volt will obviously differ significantly (thank goodness). Now if the price is right, we’re all set. I wonder what the govt will charge for them.
    Be well,
    Tag
    LJGTVWOTR!!********NPNS  

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  175. charlie h
    Vote -1 Vote +1charlie h
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 9:26 am

    #173, Kevin R, “Gas prices will inevitably rise.”

    Sure. Which is why Toyota has been building the Prius for 12 years. It gets remarkable fuel economy at a very affordable price.

    ======

    I don’t know why so many people are freaked out about Toyota’s comments. There are two possible ways this can go:

    1. Toyota is right. They’ve examined the economics of an RE-EV and the demands in the auto market (they have recent experience with introducing an advanced powertrain and can also look at Ford’s, Nissan’s and GM’s sales for guidance) and have come to the conclusion that what it costs to build a 40-mile RE-EV is far more than what the market will bear, except for 3500 or so people who will buy the car at any cost. So, they stay the course for now.

    In this scenario, GM does stand to lose. That’s GM’s business.

    2. Toyota is wrong. Either GM has a secret way of building the car at low cost (I’m trying very hard not to laugh) or there’s some demand for this vehicle that Toyota has not discovered.

    In this case, Toyota loses.

    So, either Toyota’s right and what they say is unremarkable or maybe prophetic or Toyota’s wrong and the market is about to punish them.

    Most of what Toyota has said is simply to reassure their people and stockholders that their plan is sound and this all has no effect on GM whatsoever.

    So, why get all crazy about it? When GM delivers the car (or even sets a firm price, something they have danced around for quite a while), we’ll have a better idea of how this is going to go.

    People with real faith in the project shouldn’t be getting all upset over this.

    On the other hand, people who believe the project is foolish (that would be… me) but are seeing their tax dollars flushed right down the hole to support it, those people have a legitimate cause for upset and anger. If the project is a success, those people (me) may yet end up mollified by it. Or even looking a bit sheepish (I’m not betting that way).  

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  176. Mike D
    Vote -1 Vote +1Mike D
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 10:57 am

    #158

    Assuming a price of 40k is a perfectly reasonable hypothesis.

    Yes, my despreciation calculations are based on hypothesis, the only way around that is a time machine. The fact that it’ll MOST LIKELY be a good reliable working car when it’s 10 years old should equate to a healthy residual value, regardless of how many are sold. Residual value has to do with funcionality, not necessarily volume.

    For mileage, i assumed 15k miles year, and 37 gallons of gas. That would equate, at 40 MPG in depletion mode, to 1480 gasoline miles a year. That’s about $100 a year in fuel. For 2960 gasoline miles a year, that’s $200 (@2.50 a gallon)

    Yes, of course my numbers are based on hypothesis, but i’m confident my hypotheses are down to earth. I had quite a large gap between net 10 year costs also, between the volt and a 20k ICE car, well enough to contain a margin of error…

    But, alas, you’re not WRONG, time will tell!!  

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  177. Tall Pete
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tall Pete
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 12:01 pm

    Hermant @ 34 :
    Economically, the Volt is a non-starter! I know I’m not buying it…
    —————————————————————————————————————-
    And yet, interestingly, there you are on a Volt site reading an article and posting a comment.

    The Voltec drivetrain makes so much sense as an intermediate solution to long range BEV (when batteries come to exist) that I am willing to buy one just to make sure the technology survives and blossoms. There must be a few tens of thousands of people in North America thinking the same way.

    With the actual administration, I’m not worried. Volt will sell like hotcakes.  

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  178. statik
    Vote -1 Vote +1statik
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 12:55 pm

    #162 NZDavid said:

    Statik Your 109 from yesterday: It’s the time differance thing!
    My electric company is trialing two iMiev’s and I got the data from them. It seems that as our power supply is the same as Japan and we both use right hand drive they view NZ as a good smallish trial market.

    Yep, all prices are NZD, now you can see why I have to save!
    Seriously, I have been keeping track of my daily mileage and the iMiev looks like it will cover 98% of my travel requirements. The rest of the time I would hire a Prius. While 60K is more than I would have liked, it’s not so far from the ~54K the Volt might cost here.
    ===================

    You know I will hate you if you get one before me.

    (=  

    (Quote)


  179. Tagamet
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tagamet
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    Statik@178 to NZDavid:

    “You know I will hate you if you get one before me.”

    Ditto.

    Be well,
    Tag
    LJGTVWOTR!!********NPNS

    /way too much troll food today. They’ll be getting morbidly obese.  

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  180. Ema
    Vote -1 Vote +1Ema
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 3:02 pm

  181. Willy Bio
    Vote -1 Vote +1Willy Bio
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 3:36 pm

    Toyota = EPIC FAIL.

    I’ve been saying it online for almost two years. Toy dropped the ball. Toy lost a game it had already won. Toy is now going to try and snooker people into as many cut rate Prius arcane pieces of $hit so as to lock them into the Toy brand for at least 5 years. Anyone, and I mean ANYONE, who hails Toy as a forward thiking eco-green-happy-hippie-chic company is a friggin fool, tool, dolt, dimwit, take your pick. You lot will suckle on the Big Oil Teet at the behest of Toy, belching an almost infinite amount of CO2 over the Volt for the average day of driving. Prius owners will be the new Hummer driving scum of the next few years. That’s right, Hummer driving scum. Volt = on average no gas burned per day. Prius = on average an infinite amount of gas burned per day when compared to the Volt. Suck it down, get sick, then wake the F up and tell Toy to go pound sand. Or…suckle like the pig you are.  

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  182. charlie h
    Vote -1 Vote +1charlie h
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 5:02 pm

    #181, Willy Boi,

    Toyota can produce about a half million Priuses a year. Starting this year. They’re doing far more to reduce oil consumption than 10K Volts that are 18 months in the future.

    Even if we accept the ludicrous idea that a Volt will use no fuel each year (and ignoring the CO2 emissions at your friendly neighborhood coal-fired power plant)…

    A 25mpg sedan @14K miles/year = 560 gallons of fuel
    A 50mpg Prius @ 14K miles/year = 280 gallons of fuel, which is 280 gallons of fuel use avoided.
    A Volt that operates in EV mode @ 14K miles/year = 0 gallons of fuel or 560 gallons of fuel use avoided.

    Now, to determine the effect of each program:

    500,000 Priuses * 280 gallons of fuel avoided = 140 million gallons of fuel avoided.
    10K Volts * 560 gallons of fuel avoided = 5.6 million gallons of fuel avoided.

    When the Volt finally hits the road, the Priuses produced that same year have about 70 times the impact of the Volts produced that year.

    And, of course, THIS year, there’s no comparison. Unless we can burn GM’s press releases to stay warm.

    Would you like a comparison in terms of dollars spent to achieve each gallon of fuel avoided?

    Of course, there are plenty of other alternatives for reducing use of oil. Car-pooling cuts fuel use for commuting in half (or by 2/3 or 3/4…) at zero incremental cost, as an example.  

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  183. StevePA
    Vote -1 Vote +1StevePA
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 8:04 pm

    #182
    And what will the argument be in a few years when EREVs of every stripe accumulate enough numbers in the fleet to outnumber Prius?

    Give it a rest man. Life is too short. Prius was a good example of a technology needed for a time. That time will pass, probably sooner than you’d like.

    EREVs will also pass into history at some point as battery technology improves.

    Wouldn’t recommend getting so invested in one technology…good thing is, as you’ve pointed out in this and other posts, the net result of all of it is a significant reduction in the use of fossil fuels. That is what matters.  

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  184. Willy Bio
    Vote -1 Vote +1Willy Bio
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 8:44 pm

    Charlie = fool, tool, dolt, dimwit, take your pick.  

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  185. Willy Bio
    Vote -1 Vote +1Willy Bio
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 9:31 pm

    Actually, Charlie = Dagwood on the forums. He’s such a pathetic crank that he now tries to build a sock puppet brigade. In fact, that actually disqualifies him of being a crank and makes him a cranktard. Used to be pathetic, now he’s just creepy.  

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  186. joe obrien
    Vote -1 Vote +1joe obrien
    Says:
    May 20th, 2009 at 11:06 pm

    Because they only allowed so many RAV4 EV’s to be sold. Toyota is really starting to piss me off, just because they weren’t first with the erev platform, they keep acting pissy about it. It will be far superios to their hybrid synergy drive, and they begrudgingly know it. When gas goes back up like it will as soon as energy traders speculate it back up once they feel the economy can handle it, then the gas free 40 miles will be even more superior.

    Funny thing about speculators driving oil back up again, since running energy prices through the roof with rampant unchecked speculation is what brought this nation, and world into a recession. When you force people who live on the edge financially to shell out an extra $5,000 to $7,000 a year it hurts their ability to purchase non essential items which drive this economy. And on a larger scale, then some can’t make house payments, and with housing and discretionary spending in ruin, there goes the economy again.

    Wonder how long it will take to put us back into recession once this round ends, since they don’t seem to learn from their mistakes.  

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  187. charlie h
    Vote -1 Vote +1charlie h
    Says:
    May 21st, 2009 at 9:01 am

    #185, Willy Bio: “Actually, Charlie = Dagwood on the forums.”

    An interesting claim. How do you propose to prove it?

    Of course, if true, so what? Charlie, at least, isn’t abusive. He’s never called anyone on the forum a “fool, tool, dolt, dimwit,…”

    ===

    #183, Jim in PA,

    And what will the argument be in a few years when EREVs of every stripe accumulate enough numbers in the fleet to outnumber Prius?

    Then, EREV will be a technology that lived up to its hype. Until that time, it’s an idea. Will GM, which has a track record of failure, be the company that makes this vision come true?

    And put this in perspective… EREV = ICE + electric drivetrain components. Prius = ICE + electric drivetrain components + PSD. What makes anyone think Toyota can’t remove something from their car to build an EREV, if the economics are right?  

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  188. Willy Bio
    Vote -1 Vote +1Willy Bio
    Says:
    May 21st, 2009 at 12:56 pm

    Wow, you forgot to even change your name to Sock Puppet Brigade Member 5? Awesome Freudian slip there chief. Jesus, you really are a cranktard. You know, my mommy taught me something that apparently yours didn’t: If something is worth doing at all, its worth doing right. If you’re gonna be a jerk-off crank, do it right. But no, instead you’re just a creepy cranktard.  

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  189. charlie h
    Vote -1 Vote +1charlie h
    Says:
    May 21st, 2009 at 1:59 pm

    Willy Bio,

    As I said, Charlie, at least, isn’t abusive. Thanks for providing another post with sharp contrast in that regard.  

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  190. Willy Bio
    Vote -1 Vote +1Willy Bio
    Says:
    May 21st, 2009 at 2:17 pm

    Whoops! I guess you meant to speak about yourself in the third person. That’s beyond creepy, its a clinical sign of psychosis. A psychotic cranktard, just what the world needs. Just the person Toy wants as a cheerleader…NOT.  

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  191. Loboc
    Vote -1 Vote +1Loboc
    Says:
    May 21st, 2009 at 3:06 pm

    Looks like Charlie H. +- Dagwood has been caught red handed. Take a look at the forums and posts by dagwood. Its him, clear as day. Here we all were thinking he was Reinert, or some other Toyota plant, but its just our long term resident GM hater.

    Dagwood, why do you behave this way? Is this really the only cause you could find to give yourself some sense of worth? I thought you only have a few mile commute anyway, so why the palpable vitriol against GM and seeming love for Toyota? More to the point, why post here at all?  

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  192. charlie h
    Vote -1 Vote +1charlie h
    Says:
    May 21st, 2009 at 4:16 pm

    191, Loboc,

    I told you I wasn’t Reinert. Since you have taken up Willy Bio’s refrain, I’m curious to know how you’re going to prove Charlie = dagwood. Is “Loboc” your real name?

    Why do I behave in what way? I’m not abusive. I just write on topics of interest to me. You have some problem with that? Would you feel safer and more secure if shielded from different or even contrarian points of view?

    The Volt is a mistake for GM. GM is a bankrupt company and their #1 job should be to get back to profitability and off welfare. GM can do this while still making a contribution to reductions in oil dependence and GHG emissions, which are goals often espoused by the regulars on this site.

    But to move forward with unprofitable projects just keeps GM digging into the US Treasury for more money.

    A few weeks ago, you’d still see posts here rejecting the notion that the emergency loans extended to GM were anything other than a gift. Let’s re-evaluate that today… these loans are now being repaid with stock in a company that’s fundamentally worthless. Any pretense that these loans were something other than a gift has finally been abandoned.

    So, we’ve put up $15 or $20 billion (I’ve lost count) for… what? The promise of a future unprofitable vehicle with just 10K copies produced by the end of 2011? What does that achieve? To advance a particular vehicle platform? A very large ICE (large enough that you could simply run the car with it at performance levels equal to or better than a 1982 Cavalier), a battery that’s currently uneconomic and an electric drivetrain.

    There’s no sense in that… Look at the current market. Without $15 billion in US government support:
    - Toyota is mass-marketing HSD.
    - Honda is mass-marketing IMA.
    - Ford is mass-marketing their hybrid and the new Fusion hybrid beats the Camry hybrid. They’ve got game, that’s for sure..
    - Tesla is actually shipping a BEV. Too expensive for prime time, really, but they’ll do better with the next car.
    - Mitsubishi is getting the iMiev ready for market.

    Five different solutions (there’s probably more that I’m forgetting) from companies with a far better track record than GM, and they’ve somehow done it without billions in suppot from the US Treasury.

    The winning companies in the auto markets are going to produce better and better vehicles. They aren’t going to be “leapfrogging” each other for ego and PR, they’re going to advance the tech because they think they can put a value proposition using higher tech in front of the customer and win. That’s progress.

    Do you want to help them produce high-tech cars that don’t use oil? Helping them is easy to do… Call or write your reps and DEMAND a sizeable and continually increasing oil tax at the wellhead and the import terminal. Rising gas prices will move consumers to more and more fuel-efficient solutions and the winning auto companies will respond. Rising gas prices might even persuade people that a $40K compact car that runs 40 miles on electricity makes sense, without $7500 in tax credits.

    But the way we’re going, with support for GM and a solution-targeted tax credit, if the Volt actually reaches the market (a GM bankruptcy makes this much less than certain), any miniscule reduction in demand for oil-based fuel as a result of buying a Volt instead of, say, a Prius, leads to a slight reduction in price of oil-based fuel, which will simply encourage consumers to go ahead and use oil-based fuels in some other way. No net improvement in oil dependence or GHG emissions.

    Economics 101. Simple and pure.

    By the way, alternatives are important. We’ve blown at least $15 billion on GM. As I said, to accomplish what? That same $15 billion could have bought 500K-750K 50+ mpg cars, which could have been given to the first 500K-750K people who brought in a licensed, insured, operational gas guzzler to be crushed. That would reduce oil consumption right there and in the near term. That $15 billion could have been loaned out to companies to build factories to build renewable energy systems and products (solar photovoltaic cells, for example). Once repaid, that $15 billion could have been recycled into additional energy-saving or renewable energy development projects.

    Instead, for our $15 billion (if GM doesn’t implode, anyway) we’ll get 30-40K gas guzzlers/month until 2011, when we’ll get 30-40K gas guzzlers/month plus 10K Volts by the end of the year. I’m an impatient type… I like my progress to be quicker and more cost-effective than that.  

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  193. Michael C. Robinson
    Vote -1 Vote +1Michael C. Robinson
    Says:
    May 21st, 2009 at 8:03 pm

    Trace amounts of potassium added to certain nano structured materials can create a solar reactive medium that is excellent at producing hydrogen.

    Algae to hydrogen is alive and well where the algae can be grown
    off of the CO2 emitted by coal plants.

    Solar to hydrogen is improving, note the lack of an intermediate
    step.

    Asemblon intends to market hydrnol by March 2011 in Oregon.

    Nuclear cracking of water with reactors that have high enough
    output temperatures is a very realistic option. There is a lot
    of uranium that is naturally decaying which could be used in
    nuclear reactors.

    Collect methane gas from the ocean before it escapes into the
    atmosphere and steam reform it.

    Steam reform methane from garbage dumps.

    Cellulosic ethanol is apparently a promising feedstock for producing
    hydrnol and it can certainly be reformed to produce hydrogen gas.

    The list of ways to get to hydrogen is long with wind to electricity
    to hydrogen being a very realistic medium term option. I prefer
    nuclear though because you are talking fewer chopped up birds
    and less noise.

    There are many renewable ways to get hydrogen and many non
    renewable means that would work in the medium term. Multiple
    methods of getting to hydrogen are improving dramatically.

    I don’t know where the $350k fuel cell figure is coming from,
    pulling numbers out of thin air isn’t very convincing let alone
    polite. A platinum based fuel cell might be that expensive,
    but platinum is NOT the best electrode material where carbon
    is much cheaper and much more resilient.

    Elon says that the Volt because it has a small battery and a small
    gas engine will pound it’s battery and overwork it’s engine. Evidently, a long range battery is more efficient than a short range
    one. The Tesla model S looks like it is going to compete with the
    Volt. If the Volt and the Tesla model S were my only choices for
    alternative vehicles, I would try the Tesla model S first. Frankly,
    I prefer to wait till 2015 to see about getting a fuel cell car.  

    (Quote)


  194. Michael C. Robinson
    Vote -1 Vote +1Michael C. Robinson
    Says:
    May 21st, 2009 at 9:28 pm

    Here is some information about GM’s efforts to produce better
    fuel cells.

    “Bereisa told us some particulars about the Gen VI fuel cell, ‘Now we’ve got the size down to where it can fit into a compact car. It’s much smaller than what you just drove. Plus we’re using a lot less platinum in the fuel cell stack, so cost is down. But we’re able to deliver more range – around 300 miles – because we’ve got more cells in the stack.’

    Many of the changes that Bereisa told us about come from engineering made at the molecular level. Bereisa said, ‘When we started the program, we bought many components from vendors, but now we’ve exhausted their technology, and we’re having to pioneer advances on our own, and those advances are happening at the molecular level of engineering.’ There are approximately 650 people working on the Advanced Engineering & Technology Development team in the U.S., Germany, China, and South Korea.

    The team has succeeded in decreasing the size and cost of the hydrogen powertrain by 50-percent in the last two years.”

    If fuel cells are totally impractical, why is GM making size and cost
    reductions producing them? If GM keeps this up, it will be able to
    sell fuel cell cars reasonably soon. Let’s say that a fuel cell does
    cost $350k right now. That is cut in half to $175k. If in 2 more years the price drops in half again, a fuel cell stack will cost
    roughly $85k. Another drop by 50% will lower the price to
    $42.50k and a third 50% drop will make fuel cells affordable
    at just under $22k. Assuming there will be further cost reductions
    for fuel cells is no different than assuming there will be future cost
    reductions for batteries, except assuming fuel cells will continue to
    come down in cost there is some evidence to support that assumption.

    So I am talking, let’s see, 3 more 50% drops in 6 years where
    a 50% drop has occured over the last 2 years. At the same time,
    there has been a stack size decrease. If the resiliency of the fuel cell triples from 50k miles to 150k miles, it will potentially compete with the gasoline engines of today by 2015.

    I hear estimates that aggressive driving will cut the 518 mile range
    of the Toyota Highlander FCHV to 400 miles. Now, let’s say that
    the Volt’s 40 mile AER is cut in half or worse by aggressive driving.
    It looks to me like the Volt’s 40 mile AER may be less secure than
    Honda FCX Clarity’s 240 mile AER or the Toyota FCHV’s 518 mile
    AER.

    Fuel cells and battery electric vehicles have been developing together and even though fuel cell electric cars are not politically
    popular right now, GM is still working on one. It’s not, I have to
    love the Volt and hate fuel cell cars. Quite the contrary, both are
    electric cars where the main difference is how the energy to drive
    them is stored and produced.  

    (Quote)


  195. Willy Bio
    Vote -1 Vote +1Willy Bio
    Says:
    May 22nd, 2009 at 7:24 am

    @Charlie D.

    “Is “Loboc” your real name?”

    So now that we have all called you out, you resort to the “No, You Are!” gambit?

    Frakking pathetic you frakking creepy cranktard.  

    (Quote)


  196. charlie h
    Vote -1 Vote +1charlie h
    Says:
    May 22nd, 2009 at 7:29 am

    #195, Willy Bio,

    You’ve made a claim. How do you intend to prove it?  

    (Quote)


  197. Willy Bio
    Vote -1 Vote +1Willy Bio
    Says:
    May 23rd, 2009 at 6:37 am

    As if I had to prove the sun will come up in the morning. Your padded cell is ready, sir.  

    (Quote)


  198. wwskinn3
    Vote -1 Vote +1wwskinn3
    Says:
    May 24th, 2009 at 3:32 pm

    I still want a 2 seater sports electric (can’t afford Tesla). I wonder what I would get in miles per charge if I took one of those mid 80’s Corvettes that everyone hates and convered it to electric??????? Anybody have any ideas. These can be purchased fairly cheaply.  

    (Quote)



  199. fjs
    Vote -1 Vote +1fjs
    Says:
    August 2nd, 2009 at 6:43 am

    It was a stretch for me to buy my Prius at $23K with a $3K tax incentive at the time. Below 30K is not going to sell the Volt in mass volume unless it is going to last 20 years.  

    (Quote)

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