
As last week’s earning report indicated, GM’s financial position continues to worsen. Despite surviving on $13.4 billion dollars of government loans since December, and fast approaching its possible bankruptcy deadline of June 1st, GM lost another $6 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2009. This loss adds to the $83 billion lost since 2004 and accompanies a 50% reduction in revenue compared to Q1 2008. In fact, last quarter GM spent $10 billion more than it earned. There are fears that bankruptcy talk is affecting sales.
In less than three weeks we will learn if GM will be able to successfully restructure or else enter a rapid bankruptcy.
Yet with all this turbulence, uncertainty and fear the Volt program trudges on undaunted like a brave soldier marching through a battlefield. And GMs top brass are looking ahead to better times after June 1st.
“At this point in time, I know of no reason why we can’t be in production by November of 2010,” said GM’s new vice chairman and VP of product development Tom Stephens. “The Volt is absolutely on track.”
Stephens also said GM hasn’t decided which of its remaining the core brands GMC, Buick, or Cadillac, would also get a Voltec car.
“It’s best utilized in urban vehicles,” said Stephens. “We have to consider what is the usage of the person buying the vehicle. For a commuter who drives 40 miles a day and takes it shopping on weekend, it’s the perfect application.”
Stephens is planning a showroom approach with each of the core brands offering an array of advanced technology vehicles. “We’re going to have the most exciting, capable showroom,” he said.
New CEO Fritz Henderson agrees with plans to richly flesh out the product lines in each brand. “I think that in the case of Chevrolet, we have the chance in the next year or two to really put the stake into it, with Cruze, with the Spark and with the next-generation [vehicles] available we’re working on,” he said.
Source (Automotive News) (Autoweek)
May 9th, 2009 at 8:00 am
Timely topic, Lyle! I’m hopeful that lessons learned from Chrysler’s similar financial demise/restructuring will help smooth and expedite GM’s! Viva la Volt!!!
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May 9th, 2009 at 8:06 am
Looks like bankruptcy to me, which is sad, but necessary. The Volt makes sense from a strategic standpoint because we have found that the American auto industry can’t compete on a global basis unless we add REAL value to cars. That means GM needs to produce an affordable 4-door sedan that gets well over 50 miles to the gallon. That means electrification and leading edge products.
By the way, notice how gas prices are sneaking up again? $4.00 is right around the corner folks.
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May 9th, 2009 at 8:07 am
I think that the Cruze may be a bigger hit then the Volt. Good gas mileage and cost effective for a lot of people to be able to afford.
Would love a Volt but may have to settle for a Cruze …. time will tell.
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May 9th, 2009 at 8:11 am
#2 George B.
Your comment about gas prices sneaking up. Right on.
On a different note …. I just wonder how many Airlines pulled a Southwest and bought up as much “future” fuel as they could when prices were low this past winter. The smart ones did.
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May 9th, 2009 at 8:16 am
maybe someone will sell kits to electrify the rear wheels on a Cruze..
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May 9th, 2009 at 8:45 am
Just where is the current management going to drive that “stake” into Chevy?
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May 9th, 2009 at 8:51 am
I’m excited to see what other new products they are working on. I’d like to see a new Impala and Malibu, a 2 mode hybrid version of each. I think axing the Cobalt for the Cruze is going to help sales quite a bit.
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May 9th, 2009 at 8:58 am
“Axing the Cobalt for the Cruze.” I agree but if you review the list of “no longer in production” models of the Chevy line, a bleak picture of selling a “new” model that develops a bad reputation, followed by yet another “new” model emerges. One key for the future of Chevy is to make models that are so good, people go looking to buy this or that model that they have owned before.
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May 9th, 2009 at 9:26 am
The Volt is on track. That’s great news though I don’t see why things will be better after June 1. The situation for all car makers is still quite dire, and GM is in a terrible financial situation. (I’m still blown away by the fact that GM stock still has value).
The new products are great but they’ll have to be reliable. People who buy small vehicles like the Cruze and the Spark are looking for transportation to places other than a service bay. Let’s hope GM gets these vehicles right.
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May 9th, 2009 at 9:33 am
I think at this point is clear that GM can not survive on it’s own. In my opinion since they are going to live on the tax payers money anyway they should concentrate on finally getting good quality products in all segments without worrying to much about the short term returns. The company absolutely can not be allowed to close down. All countries support their automakers including those who absolutely have no hopes of making anything of value in the nearest future.
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May 9th, 2009 at 9:36 am
Food for Thought.
It just dawned on me that if I were an oil baron, I would have probably bought stocks and bonds of an industry that complements or supports my oil business. Yes, I would have bought GM stocks and bonds, as they create vehicles that perpetuate the necessity for my oil.
When GM began crazy thinking like Volt technology, which would reduce the need for my oil, I would have become upset. So upset that I would hope they go bankrupt and stop the production and development of the Volt. Now that GM is in trouble they have the nerve to ask me, “the oil baron”, to take a hit on my bonds so they can avoid bankruptcy and successfully roll out the Volt a year from now.
As an Oil Baron, I would prefer to lose all the money I invested in GM rather than see them roll out the Volt which would raise the bar in MPG thinking that other auto manufactures would try to copy or beat.
If the Volt is launched, my oil business will begin a downward spin that may possibly cause my bankruptcy ten years from now.
NPNS!
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May 9th, 2009 at 9:47 am
Nelson #11
On the other hand …. As gas consumption goes down you (as the oil baron) will slow production and thus keep prices high. Your oil reserves will last longer thus making MORE money by making your oil last longer.
I don’t think it matters what the MPG ends up. If you have oil you have the ability to control a lot. That is until every vehicle on the road is running on hydrogen.
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May 9th, 2009 at 9:54 am
It’s a brave new world out there.
I’m glad GM is finally seeing through the oil haze.
Can’t wait for November 2010.
NPNS
(No Plug No Sale)
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May 9th, 2009 at 9:59 am
This may have been addressed in a previous thread, but what is GM’s projected cost of research and development to get Volt to its 2010 introduction?
I guess marketing cost should also be added in, since without those the car might not succeed.
As “moon shots” go, this one is particularly heroic because of the fiscal and political situation. With the real moon shot, the Apollo program had unlimited funding and almost no detractors.
Hang in there GM! Volt will change the world.
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:07 am
#11 Nelson,
“It just dawned on me that if I were an oil baron. . . . ”
____________________
Or an investment fund manager?
http://ev1.org/gmoil.htm
** Disclaimer: I just found it interesting – - haven’t thought about it from this angle much. An invalidated (and fuzzy ( i.e. what if you’re a fund investor?)) “data point”, if you will.
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:09 am
GM don’t forget the BEV version of the Volt in your future plans.
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:14 am
#12 Evil Conservative
My business model as the “Oil Baron” won’t make a profit with low volume. Fixed cost are too high.
If the Volt is launched, my oil business will go bankrupt ten years from now.
NPNS!
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:21 am
Ted – you started the BEV controversy again on purpose didn’t you? Is it raining and you’re bored? I like BEVs too but there is a cabal of determinists on this site who think their opinions of BEVs obviate their possibility, as we may suspect you know all too well.
Peace.
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:31 am
No matter how successful the Volt becomes, it will not be worth the billions of taxpayer dollars this company has wasted. You people just don’t get it. This country does not need GM to have electric cars. Plenty of other makers are gearing up, so why is GM so special that this socialist government decides to keep it afloat ? I personally don’t intend to purchase a Volt, instead I am looking at an electric Mini Cooper that is currently being tested.
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Use of “cabal” +5
Use of “determinists” +5
Misuse of “obviate” – 10
which results in overall wrecked sentence
/guess it’s raining here, too
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:41 am
Brain Dead Monkey #19
Permit me the extravagance of pointing out that your first sentence is emotionally reactive and patently illogical – the Volt could be worth countless billions if it manages to become a great success. Nobody minds if you want an electric Cooper – help yourself. I’m a conservative person, dislike the daydream impracticality of Socialism but feel GM has been slaughtered over the years by an untoward combine of Big Government & Big Labor while foreign governments give massive support to their competitors on our soil.
There are plenty of people on this site who get plenty of stuff so mebbe you should moderate gratuitous insults.
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:48 am
carcus1 #20
Since I like your posts and know you are a BEV man I won’t argue with your -10 for obviate, it wasn’t quite the word I wanted but it was the one that fell out of my rusty brain and contend it could stretch to fit in a pinch.
Peace be with you.
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:54 am
#22 Shawn Marshall,
And also with you.
/ think I’ll put on a rain cap and go do something outside
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:59 am
Stephens, Henderson:
Minivan. Why don’t you get that yet?
End
List
Run
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May 9th, 2009 at 11:00 am
#10 alex_md
I agree with you. At this point 2 billion here or there won’t make any difference in terms of public perception. They need to spend whatever it takes to make good quality cars that will, in time, win over the public. The product comes first. And they need good customer service. If they don’t have customers, they don’t have anything.
And, yes, the government should help GM (and Ford). Look at what the Japanese government did for Toyota and Honda. They kicked out the competition (GM and Ford) from the domestic market in 1939, and then bailed them out in 1949. It wasn’t until the 1970s that Japanese cars became successful on the export market. And Japan still protects its home market. It’s called long term planning and Americans don’t do enough of it.
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May 9th, 2009 at 11:12 am
Hey Lyle:
I know that you’ve done polls on this site before. Have you done a poll of your readers of how many miles they ACTUALLY drive per day on average?
GM must have done their own polls to arrive at 40 miles, but since readers of this blog are most likely to be the first buyers of the VOLT, I would be interested to know what everyone here is doing on mileage…
I am fortunate to drive only 2 miles to work, then 2 miles home 5 days a week. That’s why I don’t care about my 9-MPG 79 Corvette which is my daily driver / project car.
But my wife’s car gets used quite a bit more. Not quite 40 miles per day, but there are those occasions where she will put on 70 miles in a day, so the range extended Volt is perfect for her.
C’mon guys! Let’s hear what you guys really drive.
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May 9th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Ted and Carcus and Shawn
Forget the BEV. Ugh! Appealing as all get out but the whmile and $kW numbers say BEVs are not economically viable. Plus they have the pesky refueling time issue. (A big problem for natural gas vehicles as well). So they aren’t viable unless they are.
Anyway, let’s move on to bio-fuels, which are more interesting. Here is a intruiging at-home solution you should be able to get in the near future, at least in CA. (I think the idea is to roll out nationwide). The compact machine, which you get at no cost, turns waste products which are bought on forward contracts and delivered to your site, into E100.
Since the distillate fuel is currently waste, the societal cost of this fuel is essentially zero. Your cost is $1.50/gallon locked for the k period of several years, which is competitive with the current price of gas. [Note: The web site has the cost of machine at around $7k after tax credits and the cost of the fuel at $1/gallon. The presentation said something else so I'm guessing the business model has changed to more of a razor and blades approach].
My guess is that fleets or gas stations would be the first adopters but the machine is designed for home use. (No trips to the gas station for Dave G). Very cool. The thread yesterday contained discussion about taxis using E-REVs and this is an alternative/complementary to that.
http://www.microfueler.com/
Also interesting is the story of how gasoline came to displace ethanol as the fuel of choice for automobiles. Not to ruin the story but it has something to do with Prohibition — so we can now blame OPEC and our dependency on foreign oil on those seeking to legislate morality as they see it. Ba ha ha ha ha! In any event it’s worth a look.
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May 9th, 2009 at 11:29 am
I know, you expect me to come here and pour cold water on something…but this is the first real ‘fluff, no substance marketing, wool over the sheep’s eyes’ things I have seen Fritz do, and it makes me a little sad…I like Fritz.
We have the platitudes here, the saying all the things people want to hear. He is just going through the talking points…and they even conflict against each other.
He talks up the Cruze, Spark and Equinox for Chevy as great examples of why Chevrolet will be relevant again, talking up fuel efficiencies and how great the Equinox and Volt will be when gas prices go higher…a ‘top quality, competitive brand’ and then in the very next breath he says:
“I think the Camaro is a wonderful halo vehicle for Chevrolet, but it can also be a core model.”
Really? A core model is a 300-400 horsepower niche sportscar, when gas prices are going up, and the economy is faltering and no one is buying cars at all? Even if the recession was over tomorrow, I don’t see people running out to buy a Camaro. A halo car is fine…sounds good, but we are in trouble if the Camaro is leading the charge into the future. Sure, sales are good at the moment, but it has only been in full production about 3 weeks…talk to me in October.
The Camaro might not even be a viable product at all. You got a full dedicated global RWD platform producing only one car…a sportscar. This platform was supposed/built to have 4-5 cars off it, how can it make money in the long run?
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May 9th, 2009 at 11:37 am
The Volt/GM may survive, but the question is with all the massive bailout fatigue and hostility against companies taking this money, will anyone buy? Or will people who may have bought a GM before now actively avoid GM because of this? I know a lot of people I talk to are in that mindset now that they will not buy from bailed out companies. Given that, and the people who won’t buy from abanrkupt company, no matter what the assurances, and I think GM has a tough road ahead.
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May 9th, 2009 at 11:50 am
The Camaro can and will be a core model with 29 miles per gallon.
it’s a world class V6.
29 MPG’s and fast…tough to argue against that combination.
Try to even find one on a lot. I drove by one on my may to Manhattan and it was gone on the way back. Have yet to see one “sitting” more than overnight on a lot.
Subaru WRX is everywhere with about the same mileage.
The Camaro will outsell it hands down.
Not everyone wants a vibrating, whining, massively hard working buzzing 4 cyl that has to be punished every time a hill needs to be climbed. Talk about the definition of boring.
While I see GM doing the bankruptcy like just about everyone else…they will prove to be a leader in electric vehicles and we will be far less dependent on foreign oil. It’s the transition people. Get ready cause here it comes.
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May 9th, 2009 at 11:56 am
At this point in time, I know of no reason why we can’t be in production by November of 2010,” said GM’s new vice chairman and VP of product development Tom Stephens. “The Volt is absolutely on track.”
——————–
Realistically one has to understand this statement as about politics and survival, rather than anything to do with scheduling. A key element of continuing support for M is the promise of attractive small car, and the Volt is the main element of that promise, so things have to be OK “at this point in time”. There is plenty of time later on for any schedule revisions needed to deal with reality, if and as the corporation lives that long.
I admire them for continuing to speak bravely as disaster looms. .
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
______________________________________________________
Breaking News…this is big…
New Study of Biofuels vs. Biomass Electricity
Conclusion: “Electric vehicles are four to five times more efficient than combustion vehicles”.
The study was done by a collaboration between researchers at Stanford University, the Carnegie Institute of Science, and the University of California, Merced.
Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/22628/?nlid=2012
Side note: Although I believe Electricity fueled by Nuclear Energy is the best 1st tier (base load) solution, I believe that Biomass Electricity (when fueled by biomass waste such a agriculture waste) is a good 2nd tier (fill-in) energy source.
______________________________________________________
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
#17 Nelson “If the Volt is launched, my oil business will go bankrupt ten years from now.”
Say what? Less that 50% of crude oil is used for gasoline. The rest is used by a host of other products; fuel oil for heating, jet fuel for planes, asphalt for roads, lubricants, kerosene, plastics etc. All of those other uses will remain even if all cars go electric.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
I don’t care for the corporatespeak but I do like the new lineup picture. Is that the Volt or Cruze in the pic…doohhh…did I say that out loud? Seriously, they should start including the Cruze in their marketing more. It will be released sooner and available in volume.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
#26 I do about 60 miles per day. So even with a volt 20 miles out of electric range and I burn generator fuel for 20 miles…what am I getting…(anyone done the estimation?) about 100 MPG’s.
Everyone needs to chill on the 40 mile issue and GM MUST educate the masses just like Letterman who again slapped GM in the head for loosing 6 Billion and building vehicles no one wants. You would be amazed how No One knows about the Volt when I ask…most never heard of it…or a very few say “I think I heard about it”…no one really knows except us and our friends we tell about it.
Right now driving a V10 Twin Turbo Touareg that gets 26 to 28 mpg on the open road if I drive it within reason.
My New body style Civic coupe gets 35. NOT the 40 it was rated to get. The interior is crap and the plastic “frays” if something touches it lightly. The driver window leaked, the brake light switch had to be replaced and the power outlet failed. Paint quality is acceptable. I don’t see all the Hype on Honda. Reliable yes. Amazing quality…in terms of paint, interior materials…etc…NO.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
#2i8 statik says “this is the first real ‘fluff, no substance marketing, wool over the sheep’s eyes’ things I have seen Fritz do”
That’s because he’s now the CEO and this is what you do when you’re the CEO. You pitch Wall Street, you pitch the government, you pitch your dealers, and you pitch customers and potential customers. Rah rah rah and all that. I can see his point about the Camaro being a core brand. By the numbers the Mustang has been a core brand for Ford. Sad but that’s the way it’s been. It says loads about the performance of what should be core brands.
That said, the lineup beats the snot of what they had a couple of years ago.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
#26 Corvette Guy
I drive over 150 mi/day, but in a company vehicle. My wife drives 25-30 miles a day in her PT Cruiser and I have a Blazer I take to the dump and Home Depot on weekends. We do take occasional trips on weekends (200 mi round trip).
Tha Volt would fit my model nicely. I’ll be looking to replace the PT in a few years and I guess the delta between an ICE car and a Volt will be about what I save in gas, so from a cost standpoint it’s about a wash. The difference is lower maintenance (If GM does this right) and lower emissions…I get to do my part.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
George #37
It’s also kinda like Southwest buying oil futures to lock in their future jet fuel pricing.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
#29 Brian
My guess is that this is ultimately all about product. If the Volt does what it is advertised to do and the cost trends downward in the years following production GM won’t be able to make them fast enough, bailout or bankruptcy not withstanding.
Any car company could go out of business if the sales aren’t there. Tesla and Fisker could fold tomorrow…For all the hype, Ford is really just a couple of bad quarters away from GM. So what do you buy? You buy what appeals to you when you’re ready to pull the trigger. So when gas is $4.00-$5.00/gal. the Volt will be lookin’ pretty good…if you can get one.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
#38 Koz
That’s exactly right. Sort of like buying you gas in advance. The tough part will still be cost of ownership. If you finance more than half the cost of the car the pay back is tough to justify, though $4.00 gas makes it easier and, mark my words, whether it is via oil company price increase or taxes, we will be at $4.00 before you say “cat in a hat”.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
42 miles daily (21 each way) for the commute.
Occasional side trip of 5-10 miles to do some shopping.
Rare roadtrips of 200+ miles.
220VAC already in the garage.
The Volt would fit my needs like a glove.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
#35 Vincent
You are so on target there, my friend.
That’s been my biggest complaint about GM since the VOLT was announced. “Marketing” – “Merchandising” – Whatever you want to call it… They are asleep at the wheel, or just so broke they are not going to even try to educate Letterman and the general public who they desperately need to buy these things when they hit the showrooms. The only press GM is getting right now is how many more “BILLIONS” it needs to survive. They need to show the people what they will get for their money. This becomes even more critical since almost every other auto maker besides GM are working on their EREV’s too. If nobody knows why a VOLT is a better design and how it will benefit them, it won’t mean squat when they go on sale.
I can personally vouch for that since very few customers here know about Silverado, Tahoe, and Malibu Hybrids. And when we tell them about it, they don’t really care because of the higher sticker price.
It’s tough to be in the car biz.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Off Topic:
We have perhaps discussed what future generations of the Voltec range extender would look like, but perhaps we should discuss it again.
Options put forth:
1) E85 capable gas engine – the problem here is that E-85 is only available in limited locations. I do not know of an E-85 filling station in my town of San Clemente, Ca. I did suggest a business opportunity to package and ship E-85 in 2 and 5 gallon containers to Volt owners so we would basically be off imported oil. For example, when you have your Volt serviced, the Dealer would have 2 or 5 gallon containers of E-85 for retail, plus the service of draining the refilling the tank.
2) Clean diesel engine – the problem, for me at least, is the open question about the health risks of diesel, with the possibility clean diesels being only a marketing fiction like filter cigarettes.
3) Fool cell technology – it looks like this is vaporware to me, and to the Obama admin as well. They defunded R&D significantly according to a report I read.
4) Natural gas with a household compressor to supply the Volt tank. Since the capacity (equivant to about 10 gallons of gas) is small, this seems like an option to explore, it is a domestic source, or North American source at least, but reports of compressor problems currently cast a shadow.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
#25
LauraM
…And, yes, the government should help GM (and Ford). Look at what the Japanese government did for Toyota and Honda. They kicked out the competition (GM and Ford) from the domestic market in 1939, and then bailed them out in 1949. It wasn’t until the 1970s that Japanese cars became successful on the export market. And Japan still protects its home market. It’s called long term planning and Americans don’t do enough of it.
_________________________
Do you believe there are a significant amount of Americans that value long term planning? Planning at all? I think there is a large and vocal contingent that feels planning is tantamount to central planning more than coordinating and focusing economic activity, and therefore is simply another form of socialism.
Winning WWII, Bretton Woods, winning the cold war and transferring the evolving technology (from the military, the Pentagon and other Govt. agency grants for universities, Natick, DARPA and NASA) has constituted the most successful industrial planning results in history. Yet if you ask most Americans you’ll get an answer like, unfettered markets or individualism are 100% of the reason why US industrials dominated the 20th century.
No framework or infrastructure required just an invisible hand.
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May 9th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
oil baron?
I own three vehicles. Two with 2400 cc engines and one with 599 cc. Seeing huge trucks on the road, commuting to work, with a single person inside is disturbing. And as a recent comment mentions, gas pump prices are making another strong move North.
With this said, my stock investments are 25 % – 30% in oil. These will give good returns as the price per barrel increases. But, I have been converting these over to natural gas exploration. Especially the companies which explore and go on to generate electricity via natural gas. These stocks have come though BIG with the current rise in the market.
In time, natural gas stocks will be replaced with recreation and medical stocks. Why? Because baby boomers are consuming huge amounts of both.
I’ll sell the Ninja one day and become another white haired guy playing golf 3-4 times a week. And I promise you I will be driving an electric car.
=D~
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May 9th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
CorvetteGuy
#35 Vincent
You are so on target there, my friend.
That’s been my biggest complaint about GM since the VOLT was announced. “Marketing” – “Merchandising” – Whatever you want to call it… They are asleep at the wheel, or just so broke they are not going to even try to educate Letterman and the general public who they desperately need to buy these things when they hit the showrooms. …
________________________
There’s nothing to sell, 48,000 on the wait list here alone, and there will not be anything Voltec to sell for a year and a half. I know it seems like they’re not doing much – but marketing programs are to sell stuff and any and all education programs for talk show hosts and their publics belong in the schools.
If GM did get huge numbers of people red hot about Voltec products – what would be next on the agenda – to announce, “None of this is here to buy yet folks, go home to your families please”. Works better IMO with at least few dealer Volts in showrooms, excited people with checkbooks in hand and Sparks, Cruzes and Camaros ready to go out the door.
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May 9th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
#26 Corvetteguy
I drive a Dodge Ram (11MPG) 5 miles to work but I need a truck to haul my trailer for my tractor, my jet ski and my parents camper in the summer time. Only put about 3500 miles a year on the Ram.
My wife drives a Saturn Vue V6 AWD (25 MPG) to work and haul the kids around. She drives about 40 miles a day round trip and can plug in at work. We also visit relatives about every other month and that is a 180 miles round trip. So the Volt would work great for our needs.
PS-I also have a 95 Trans Am (350 V8 with a 6 speed) that I bought new and only has about 39,000 miles on it. It’s a nice day …. maybe I will get that out. In fact it gets 28 highway.
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May 9th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
My typical daily drive is about 26 miles. In nice weather I do it in three legs. First is ten miles on an EVTAmerica Z20 electric scooter. Then later is 6 miles towing my dog in a bike trailer behind a eGo Cycle 2 electric moped. Then night trip is another 10 miles in a 1991 Olds converted to run E85 ethanol. Depending on the weather, one or both of the two wheelers may remain parked. And E85 is a pain on cold starts, but WOW does it INCREASE PERFORMANCE. The Volt would sure let me consolidate my “fleet” and would meet all of my needs, including occasional over 40 miles trips.
I think BEVs will be a second car option for some, but will not come to dominate until we see 300 mile BEVs and quick charge stations in places like McDermott, Nevada. No way I could get from Boise to Reno without a refuel, and unless my car can run on ground up Jack rabbits or sagebrush, I’m gonna need electrons or gas.
The EREV is an excellent design. It fits anyones usage patterns. Fits in with currently available infrastucture. Optimizes usage of the highest cost components (batteries). And requires minimal retraining on the part of the user. The car of 2060 may not be an EREV, but I sure expect them to dominate for twenty or thirty years.
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May 9th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
Let me get this right: GM needs assurances by 6/1/09 that it will sell cars. The Volt isn’t on sale until 11/09. But lots of us would buy a Volt now, before 6/1. Well, gee…I just can’t figure this out….so complicated…
Ford is promising an electric Focus. I want a plug on my car.
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May 9th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
George B has it right at #2. GM HAS to build vehicles so much better and more innovative than the competition that people want them badly enough to pay a price which allows a profit. There is no other option.
No more “good enough” with giant rebates and zero interest to move mediocre vehicles, or ones which are out of touch with the market, off the lots.
I have no doubt that GM has the talent in house to make this happen. But it will require a giant cultural shift in a giant corporation. Can this happen in time? Who knows?
The Volt is a giant step in the right direction.
LJGTVWOTR!! NPNS!
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May 9th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
The Volt isn’t on sale until 11/09.
_______________________
No, it’s not until November 2010 before the first rollout phase begins. And that’s just to limited market areas. Most of the country won’t see Volt until 2012. Volume will be limited. Price will be high.
It’s a product for the future. Financial recovery will depend on sales of other vehicles in the meantime.
GM will have a huge void in the high-MPG, low-emission, mid-price category. There will be nothing to compete with the Fusion & Prius type hybrids. That’s the concern. How will the taxpayer loans be paid back?
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May 9th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
#27 DonC
Don, you are a sharp guy but you do not know what’s gonna happen,especially with batteries, in the future. If someone makes a 100 mi BEV at a reasonable price, I will definitely be interested, with or without your indulgence. I prefer the Volt technology but it may be a little pricey for its market so a good cheap? BEV would do me well for local runs since I’m retired. Don’t know why some of you guys insist on telling others what they should want. We’re not dumb, we are aware of the problems and we’ll see what happens.
Thank you, God bless you and g’day.
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May 9th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Refueling a natural gas vehicle could be as simple as changing tanks on a propane barbecue grill. At least that’s the way it was 40 years ago when as a teenager I changed tanks on a natural gas forklift in the stone yard where I worked. I suppose we could have a bladder in the tank. I suppose we could have an array of tanks. I’m skeptical that natural gas is a suitable fuel for cars since we import it and the greenies won’t like the emissions. I remember the cold winter of 1994 when Wash Gas Co nearly had negative pressure in their pipes. Seems there is always a big push to use ng and then an attendant scarcity of supply. HMMM..What’s that old TBone got up his sleeve anyhow? He might be crookeder than GE and AL Gore ya if Ah get a chance. But let’s say we do drill here, let’s say it becomes plentiful and cheap; I hardly see refueling as a major or even a minor obstacle. But that’s just me.
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May 9th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Certainly other developments and updates (like large pickups) have been put on hold. And GM has certainly cut staff at some of the other products lines. So the question is: why is GM keeping the Volt development funded and on schedule?
Some guesses:
1) They need a halo car to show technology leadership
2) The high mileage helps them meet CAFE standards so they can sell larger vehicles
3) They want to reduce emissions in poor air quality areas like Southern CA
4) Voltec may actually be affordable and profitable
5) Any combination of above reasons.
Whatever the reason, GM is giving the Volt and Voltec technology a priority. The rest is left to our imaginations.
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May 9th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
It would be very easy for GM to make a hybrid out of the 4 cyl Camaro.. just hook up the two front wheels with an electric motor and put in a small battery pack, similar to a Prius. Use the motor controller out of the Volt, no generator.. the front wheels location for the motor will maximize brake regen, the thru-the-road hybrid simplifies the design.
Size the motor so that the combined torque with the 4 cyl engine equals the V8 version.. paint it bright green…both Toyota and Honda claim their hybrids are at cost parity with normal cars.. I think it would be a winner.
…………………………………….
#28 statik Says:
“I think the Camaro is a wonderful halo vehicle for Chevrolet, but it can also be a core model.”
Really? A core model is a 300-400 horsepower niche sportscar, when gas prices are going up, and the economy is faltering and no one is buying cars at all?
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May 9th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Volt…don’t….die!
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May 9th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Maybe I need to read further but my eyes glazed over when I read the machine uses 10-14lbs of sugar to make 1 gallon of ethanol.. that must be a missprint because sugar in bulk is $1.50 a lb, so each gallon of ethanol would be at least $15
……………………………..
#27 DonC Says:
Here is a intruiging at-home solution you should be able to get in the near future, at least in CA. (I think the idea is to roll out nationwide). The compact machine, which you get at no cost, turns waste products which are bought on forward contracts and delivered to your site, into E100.
http://www.microfueler.com/
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May 9th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
#46 You sound like a glass 1/2 empty kind of person. That’s cool I enjoy the differences in one another. I really mean that. I also enjoy learning and respecting other cultures.Let me say this…
I’ll bet 1/2 the wait list bows out for one reason or another on the Volt.
None of the wait list ponied up any Washington so it’s cool to say your on the list. Paying for a spot and having GM accept it is another story.
Just as GM carefully announces Converj and Small Electrics little by little…and for sure new tid bits of info here and there still to come…point being they are NOT letting all the info out of the proverbial bag.
I’ll bet some other products and innovations are at hand that will amaze people.
Save this post. You shall see. Like it or not GM can not fail. This is an investment in energy independence and US manufacturing as well as US economic growth….NOT just in GM.
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May 9th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
I believe things will work out for GM soon after June 30th. The next few weeks will pass by quickly. The various parties already know what is likely to happen. The Voltech technologies will be what emerges, and, I think that GM will then be able to focus far more attention to green electric motoring. I’d like to see an announcement for plans for Voltec technologies to go right across the board into the vast majority of the GM product line.
Once things have settled, then I think that that pent-up demand for new vehicle sales will begin to hit, when buyers know for sure where everything stands when they buy their new GM vehicle.
Dan Petit Austin TX.
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May 9th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
#46 jeffhre
There’s nothing to sell, 48,000 on the wait list here alone, and there will not be anything Voltec to sell for a year and a half.
____
True. No VOLTs yet, but GM needs press about their full line of Hybrids: Tahoe, Silverado, Malibu. It’s been months since they have done any significant ads for those. And they should run an ad that is a simple “Thank You” to the American People that re-affirms their commitments to turn it around. Lee Iacocca did a commercial like that for Chrysler way back when. GM needs to do the same.
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May 9th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
I drive 36 miles to work, round trip. The Volt will be perfect for me.
I’ll be passing by those gas stations all year long.
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May 9th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Lyle… Here’s an idea…!
This website has been very successful.
Have you given any thought about publishing a magazine?
“VOLT Magazine” – “HYBRID Magazine” – “PLAYVOLT”
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May 9th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
I call dibs on ‘West Coast Correspondent’. Or ‘Editor’.
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May 9th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
“My guess is that this is ultimately all about product.”
I disagree. There are now a large percentage of the population that will not buy any GM product because of the bailout/bankruptcy. For those people a $10k Volt would not matter, they aren’t going to buy it. The only question is how large is that group of people.
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May 9th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Maybe I’ll sell some BYDDY and buy some GM common post-bk. But maybe not–because then I’ll have 2 Chinese auto companies.
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May 9th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
Off Topic:
Some details on the FWD 2 Mode transmission being readied for market in whatever vehicle GM uses to replace the Vue.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/05/2mode-fwd-20090509.html#more
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May 9th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
WAY off topic, but a true story with some good ol’ down-to-earth advice…..
HOW TO CALL THE POLICE….
George Phillips, an elderly man from Meridian, Mississippi,
was going up to bed, when his wife told him that he’d left
the light on in the garden shed, which she could see from the
bedroom window. George opened the back door to go turn off the
light, but saw that there were people in the shed stealing things.
So he phoned the police, who asked “Is someone in your house?”
He said “No, but some people have broken into my garden shed
and are stealing from me.”
The police dispatcher said “All patrols are busy. You should lock
your doors and an officer will be along as soon as one’s available.”
George said, “Okay.” He hung up the phone and counted to 30.
Then he called the police again.
“Hello, I just called a few seconds ago because there were people
stealing things from my shed. Well, you don’t have to worry about ‘em now because I just shot ‘em” ….and hung up……
Within five minutes, six Police Cars, a SWAT Team, a Helicopter, 2
Fire Trucks, a Paramedic, and an Ambulance showed up at the Phillips’ residence, and caught the burglars red-handed.
One Policeman said, “I thought you said you’d shot them!”
George said, “I thought you said there was nobody available!”
(True Story) I LOVE IT! Morale: Don’t mess with old people!
[Postscript: George allegedly had an E-REV prototype under wraps in that old shed, and like GM knew it sometimes pays to overstate reality]
….Live well, laugh often, love much!!!
….And Happy Mother’s Day!
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May 9th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
In a way, the Volt fulfills one of Obama’s Campaign Promises.
Obama: “Science, Technology & Innovation for a New Generation”
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/technology/
_-=
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May 9th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
If GM was a person he would say: “It sucks to be me”.
How can executives look forward to getting up in the morning and burn hard working American’s cash (by the billion$). How do they even sleep at night ?
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May 9th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
Our man Obama needs to kick the living crap out of GM. As a private company they built crap. As a government-run company they are still making crap. Please Obama, fix this. GM needs help fast. I see no choice but to let this failed corp enter Chapter 11 Bankruptcy and seal their history forever. The world will never look to GM for leadership again. The torch was passed to Toyota years ago GM losers. Anyone who could still support a company like this is a loser by association.
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May 9th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
#52 Shawn Marshall says “If someone makes a 100 mi BEV at a reasonable price, I will definitely be interested, with or without your indulgence.”
I think you misinterpret my viewpoint. It’s quite possible I’ll have a BEV in the next 18 months. That’s the techno-nerd side of me. The realistic side says the numbers just don’t work. Battery prices would have to tumble before the $/kWh and Wh/mile pencil out. You can run the numbers yourself, or you can just see that Fisker, which is coming out with a premium E-REV, has just successfully closed a new round of funding while Tesla, which is actually producing cars, hasn’t had any takers for its BEV based business plan.
If you’re really interested the best bet for a BEV with a real 100 mile range would be an Aptera. But that only seats two and has three wheels rather than four. The car is very quick and very stable but it may pose a problem if you live where you have nasty weather. (Places like CA, TX, GA, MS, AL LA and FL would be more than fine). The car is also quite wide which may pose a problem for some garages. Note that even with a weight of only 1700 pounds and a Cd of only .15 the preliminary specs suggest that Aptera still needs a 22 kWh battery pack in order to get the 100 mile range. Pricing is still a bit iffy but it will probably sell in the low 30s before tax credits, which seems reasonably priced.
However, at the moment I’m more intrigued by the notion of E100 at a dollar a gallon. That’s pretty amazing since it more or less kills gasoline. It also more or less kills BEVs and E-REVs but that’s a different story.
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May 9th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
#70 Bubba
Glad we can get input from experts like you!
http://americaswatchtower.com/2007/02/26/suspicious-deaths-around-the-clintons/
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May 9th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
WSJ reports tonight “Chrysler Creditors Give Up Challenge” That is, Obama administration will proceed to re-structure Chrysler as it sees fit. Another way to put it is “DonC was right.”
Now that the normal rules for creditors no longer apply, my guess is that the risk premium for the new Chrysler’s financing (or new GM) will go up by some percentage points, unless the payback is guaranteed by the government itself.
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May 9th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
They haven’t decided yet?! Well, they better get on that. As we have seen, it takes about 5 years from that decision to the showroom floor.
Let me make it easy for you – every division needs to have at least one Voltec and a pure BEV in the works. There, wasn’t that simple?
GM has to transition to being an electrified transportation company sooner or later. Why not now and have the advantage of being one of the first? Getting in second is not only uninteresting but very difficult competing with the company that had the vision to be first. You are always one generation behind trying to leap frog just to stay even. Momentum is very hard to overcome. Let’s get that huge mass moving now!
If I was the CEO of GM I would be pounding up and down the isles ranting about how we have to gear up for the transition. Of course we need to keep our current product line competitive so we don’t lose revenue but the main focus is to prepare for an electrified future. Every manager, engineer and designer should have this on their minds when they get up in the morning and when they go to sleep. The time is now and there is not a second to lose.
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May 9th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
JUST SAW MY FIRST TESLA!
I saw the guy drive by in front of where I work. He parked across the street at a market, so I walked over to have a look.
He was inside the market by the time I got there so I didn’t get to talk to him. I looked the car over though, and it is one sweeeeet looking ride! It was exciting just to be near it!
I couldn’t help but think though, as I walked back to work, that this guy probably paid 120 large for that thing and he is virtually tethered to his home somewhere. He can’t drive up into the mountains nearby on lark if he so chooses because he doesn’t have the range. He’s just bought himself an expensive toy to show off to his friends. That’s it, really.
The car is totally cool, but at the same time the whole thing makes me sad. It’s just not right without a range extender.
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May 9th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Don C @ 71
You say $/kwh won’t work out on a BEV, run the numbers yourself, . . . yada ya, and then in the same paragraph start praising Fisker? Really??
Could you please let us know what the purchase price, battery pack size, and mpg after customer depletion is going to be on that Karma?
p.s. I’ll bet you don’t find mpg (or fuel tank capacity, for that matter) — sound familiar?
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
#75 PLJ
Don’t feel sorry for him. I’m sure the 200+ range suits him just fine. All cars don’t need a range extender, nor do all people want an ICE in their car. I plan to buy a full BEV, (not a Volt) because I want a BEV period. With the average American household having 2.1 cars, adding a BEV a keeping the other ICE car is the perfect stopgap solution until infrastructure and better technology are in place to go full electric.
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
DonC
Your Aptera numbers don’t add up. The CruzeVolt mules, at 300+lbs and 2.8ish Cd, go 40 miles on 8kwh. That equates to 100 miles on 16kwh useable. The Aptera 2e is about 2.6 times as efficient as the Volt or Prius on the highway and it is highway range that matters most once the range goes over 30 miles. This means it can go ~100 miles on 8kwh for the EPA highway cycle if GM is accurate about the Volt doing 40. Allowing 70% of battery capacity for full cycle means 12kwh will do fine. They have released kwh/mile or battery info yet but their FAQ says @8hrs for fulll charge from a standard 110V outlet. This is in line with the Volt’s charging. But, it is still a 3 wheel 2-seater. There are more practical BEV’s in development and I believe you will surprised at the cost for 100 and less mile range options. 80 and less will be significantly cheaper than comparable EREV’s and that isn’t even considering the miniscule developmental costs in comparison to the EREV’s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptera_Motors
http://www.aptera.com/faqs.php
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May 9th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
RB #73
“Now that the normal rules for creditors no longer apply, my guess is that the risk premium for the new Chrysler’s financing (or new GM) will go up by some percentage points, unless the payback is guaranteed by the government itself.”
That was LauraM’svery valid concern. It may play out that way but that isn’t a given. I think the holdout bondholders biggest objection was that they were having something jammed down their throats and not that it didn’t taste good. I bet if some supremely naive fund manager offered them $0.30 for their bonds and the government wasn’t involved they would all have pulled hammies from jumping at the offer. They probably figured they could hardball the government with litigation to squeeze more out of them. When the goverment called their bluff they capitulated since they were looking at a long drawn out, expensive, and time consuming process to potentially (likely) wind up with less. Don’t count them completely out, I bet there will still be plenty of litigation. This really is much different than the SEC overzealously seizing Southeast bank and wiping out their investors. In that situation there was still actual value to the company and banks don’t seem to have difficulty raising money in a normal economy. I think the general consensus is that their wasn’t much value left in Chrysler so it should be even less of an issue.
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May 9th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
#70 Bubba Clinton
Got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning?
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May 10th, 2009 at 12:44 am
“New CEO Fritz Henderson agrees with plans to richly flesh out the product lines in each brand. “I think that in the case of Chevrolet, we have the chance in the next year or two to really put the stake into it, with Cruze, with the Spark and with the next-generation [vehicles] available we’re working on,” he said.”
—————————-
I hope he was just using a bad choice of words when he was talking about putting a stake into it. Does bring up some bad vibes in my mind.
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May 10th, 2009 at 1:05 am
More than anything, I think the juicy retirement packages will bring GM down. We now have the knowledge and technology to keep people living well beyond what the actuarial tables suggested a few years back.
Unfortunately companies don’t have the wealth to support a huge retired population. With medical science coming out with more expensive gizmos everyday, the medical costs are astronomical and getting higher each year.
I haven’t got a clue about how companies will deliver and still stay viable. Even if GM reduces costs for active employees to American Honda and Toyota levels they will still deal with the high cost of retirees and Toyota and Honda don’t. If GM fails that may be the end of the contracts with retirees. Most new employers are not getting into these types of contracts with workers. This is definitely the end of an era.
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May 10th, 2009 at 1:54 am
#60
CorvetteGuy Says:
May 9th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
And they should run an ad that is a simple “Thank You” to the American People that re-affirms their commitments to turn it around. Lee Iacocca did a commercial like that for Chrysler way back when. GM needs to do the same.
______________________
Yes, that’s a great idea. They seem to be in denial about how to address the financial situation, the Govt. loans and their (GM”s) relationship the the people
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May 10th, 2009 at 2:01 am
#75
PLJ SAW MY FIRST TESLA!
The car is totally cool, but at the same time the whole thing makes me sad. It’s just not right without a range extender.
____________________
Dude you’re right. If he can’t find a way within a 100 mile radius, with an unbelievably wicked hot, $120,000.00 dollar all electric sports car, to have a great day, then we should all feel sorry for the guy! Cus’ there’s just no hope for him. No hope at all!
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May 10th, 2009 at 5:21 am
To my earlier comment
“Now that the normal rules for creditors no longer apply, my guess is that the risk premium for the new Chrysler’s financing (or new GM) will go up by some percentage points, unless the payback is guaranteed by the government itself.”
and #73 koz replied
That was LauraM’svery valid concern. It may play out that way but that isn’t a given. I think the holdout bondholders biggest objection was that they were having something jammed down their throats and not that it didn’t taste good. I bet if some supremely naive fund manager offered them $0.30 for their bonds and the government wasn’t involved they would all have pulled hammies from jumping at the offer. They probably figured they could hardball the government with litigation to squeeze more out of them. When the goverment called their bluff they capitulated since they were looking at a long drawn out, expensive, and time consuming process to potentially (likely) wind up with less.
————————————
The “evil investor” position that you put forward is essentially that given by the President on TV, so as you say, we’ll see. I don’t see it that way. Instead I would say all automotive is now significantly higher risk than before, whether Chrysler or GM. Basically they are both now government enterprises, and the government can (and will) rewrite the rules when convenient.
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May 10th, 2009 at 6:21 am
LauraM
“And, yes, the government should help GM (and Ford). Look at what the Japanese government did for Toyota and Honda. They kicked out the competition (GM and Ford) from the domestic market in 1939, and then bailed them out in 1949. It wasn’t until the 1970s that Japanese cars became successful on the export market. And Japan still protects its home market. It’s called long term planning and Americans don’t do enough of it.”
======================================================
It’s actually called protectionism, and I think we have been their before. Just because Japan does it, and it is successful for them, does that justify moving toward this policy? Protectionism policies were created during the great depression, and is believed to have actually deepened the depression.
Lets be careful where we tread. You cannot just open pandoras box, choose what you want, then close it.
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May 10th, 2009 at 8:43 am
JEC @#86/Jeffhre #44/LauraM@ #15 – “If you choose not to decide you still have made a choice.” Our policy does not have to be protectionism. There are other choices.
Japan’s policy is not so much about portectionism as it is about having an export-driven economy. Same for China and Korea. These countries can very efficiently mass-produce more cars (or anything else) than could ever be consumed by them. It is not possible to have a trade balance with countries oriented to an export market because their policies are designed to prevent it.
Since the 1990s we have effectively chose to assume that our industrial base does not matter, and that we will somehow balance trade by either living off of our “inherited” wealth, by reaping the benefits of the ownership of our intellectual property, and by requiring the Chinese (and others) to turn their trade surplus into U.S. T-Bills. Recent statements by China’s Financial Minister (doubting prudence of further such investment, and calling for an international currency to move the world off of the dollar as the de-facto international currency) show that the status quo is not sustainable. We will have to come to a new arrangement, whether we like it or not. The question is, will we lose our industrial base before we get there?
But, again, Jeffhre is right, it is hard to have this kind of discussion when a significant minority in this country is married to out-dated world views that do not take into account what has happened or what is happening. See my posts with Guido the other day. If we sit by and make no policy choices we will have them dictated to us by other countries as we become increasingly unable to clear our trade deficit, whether China succeeds in its goal of a new international currency or not.
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May 10th, 2009 at 9:53 am
Maybe the “stake” comment was intended to be “Plant our flag in it?” I know, it’s a reach, but possible.
Anyone following all the Ford BEV announcements lately?
DonC – tough room today (g)
LauraM I totally agree with the anti-protectionist stance.
Nasaman Good story. We gray panthers are a force to be reckoned with.
Be well,
Tag
LJGTVWOTR******** NPNS
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May 10th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Now why in the world would China lose faith in their U.S. T-bills?
Why do we need HR 1207?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXlxBeAvsB8&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ecampaignforliberty%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded
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May 10th, 2009 at 11:05 am
Make a good house without toilet and bathroom, only with big kitchen!
Make a country without any (polluting ) manufacturing industries and agriculture base, only with goodies like software, management, generation of knowledge!!
Let our children work in Mc-Donald, flipping Burgers and let the other countries snatch all the new and old technologies from us!!!
—And if you do not agree, do some thing so that US manufacturing is back in this country
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May 10th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
May 10th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
RB #85
Not evil, just business. Never saw Obama’s speach yet still not a coincidence. If the bondholders or their lawyers saw a pot of gold at the end of the litigation rainbow, they would still be chasing it.
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May 11th, 2009 at 1:15 am
#90 Dr. Utsawa K. Chaturvedi, Rochester, NY Says:
Next time I need shoes I will buy New Balance, they are one of the few still mostly made in America. I suggest you all do the same.
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