The discussion and buzz about electric cars continues to accelerate. It is astounding how much more media there is about them today compared to early 2007 when the Volt concept was first unveiled. And although gas prices spiked quite high last summer, today they are about the same as in January 2007.
For many of us early electric car adopters, gas prices aren’t the issue, it is more an interest in not using gas for what it represents. For some that’s the environment, for others its energy independence, and for many its both.
Recently, attention first started by the Volt and Tesla has been amplified by President Obama’s "moon-shot" pledge of getting 1 million plugin cars on the road by 2015.
The question is will that happen, can that happen, and how many Volts will GM actually sell?
"We anticipate a strong demand for the Chevy Volt. The promise to drive gas-free without range anxiety appeals to many," said Volt spokesperson Dave Darovitz. "For example, without advertising and promotion, we have about 20,000 people who have requested more information through Chevy.com. This is since Sept. 2008."
On this independent site we have collected nearly 48,000 people since May 07 expressing similar interest.
Reports out of Japan indicate that 40,000 people have pre-ordered the 3rd generation Prius due out in May. Of course hybrid sales have declined along with gas prices, and without financial motive how many will embrace electric cars?
The Detroit News reports without naming sources "Over the next two years, GM plans to build 40,000 Chevrolet Volts, Toyota Motor Corp. intends to produce more than 15,000 plug-in Prius cars, Nissan intends to produce 10,000 yet-to-be named electric cars and Chrysler intends to produce 5,000."
These are very modest numbers.
Even our friend Tony Posawatz, the Volt vehicle line director told MSNBC about the 1 million plugin car pledge "It certainly is a difficult challenge to achieve that goal. It’s not readily obvious, based on the product plans that have been communicated, that the 2015 objective aligns with what is currently on the books."
So will we even make it to 1 million cars running on electricity by 2015? If we want to, you and I are going to have to work real hard spreading the word and building demand. It may be that all the news, advertising, and government incentives alone won’t do it.
And if we think about it, there are 250 million cars in the US, and 600 million in the world, expected to double by 2030, so 1 million itself is just a baby step, but a very important one.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (5:47 am)The demand will be huge.. the market for the second car in a home alone will suck up all the production for a long time.
No longer will your delicate wife have to stop at a nasty gas station and run the risk of getting mugged.. and much lower maintenance.
All they need for range anxiety is a big flashing red light when you reach half your range.. so that you can decide to turn back
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Apr 17th, 2009 (5:49 am)LIke most things I will wait till second or third generation before I purchase any so most of the bugs are worked out.
If GM and the Volt survive long enough I will definately consider purchasing a second generation Volt
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:04 am)IMO:
1. GM will sell every Volt it can build the first year (Assuming it is only 10,000 as stated).
2. Two factors will move people to buy Voltec cars in the follow-on years regardless of the price of gas:
a. Word of mouth about the performance — the aceleration. All the media test drives bring it up. People will want it.
b. Reduced prices in gen 2 and 3 will put the cars within reach of more buyers.
And I think we all agree that the price of gas ain’t gonna remain where it is for the next six years. That, too, will drive demand.
But a million plug-ins on the road in six years? Probably not.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:05 am)Aside from early adopters I’d imagine there would be a lot of curiosity to drive traffic to websites and dealers. Seems to be a lot of pent up demand building as people get their financial houses in order and for the job outlook/economy to improve.
Sales could be boosted by people who want to quit gasoline as often discussed here, by those tired of foreign oil use, by technophiles and folks that want something new or different.
But overall I would think sales would be moderate for electrics until a tipping point is reached and the general consensus for car buyers becomes, “Oh electric cars, yeah it seems like the thing to do nowadays, just about everyones looking at getting one”. Then sales will grow faster as each new buyer looks to follow the lead set by others IMHO.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:06 am)Hmmm…consider if GM’s financial situation has not changed by the time that the Volt goes on sale. It is one thing to buy an ICE vehicle (cookie cutter) that may lose customer support from the manufacturer, but how about for a vehicle that only the manufacturer can service.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:07 am)A plugin car will be so simple to operate, I can’t imagine it being a poor seller.
I agree with Herm #1. The demand will be huge.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:30 am)First, there are 6 billion people in the world.
I believe all types of alternative vehicles will follow the cell phone model. Starting quantities will be low, but as performance improves and costs decline, they will eventually take significant market share.
This will take several years, just like other techs.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:34 am)I think selling these vehicles is all in the marketing angle. I think we need to look away from the high price of gas as a reason for purchasing a Volt, other electric or plug-in (at this time- perhaps later when gas goes up). There are lots of creative advertising out there. Heck I fall for advertising all the time. I bought 2 Chia-pets during the holidays and I have no use for those things. But I had to “act now”.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:42 am)I worry about the future of the electric car.
As long as pricing is above $30-35K, electrics will be outside the comfort zone of many people. Right now, the only electrics available below that price are 1- or 2-seaters with 3-wheels; these are not practical for families as a 2nd car, plus they do not have the safety equipment that cars are required to have.
When the Volt comes out, will consumer confidence in GM have risen to the point where people are willing to risk $30+ on a car that can only be serviced by a company that has been in risk of bankruptcy – or has been in bankruptcy – and is 1st-gen tech?
While I would be one of the first to say, “Sure!”, my wife is going to be a MUCH harder sell.
When will the 2nd-gen come out? How much will prices drop in the first few years? How many competitors will be in the market? How many EV’s, PHEV’s, and EREV’s will there be? Will the image of an electric car change enough for middle America (which tends to lag behind the coasts) accept one?
Inquiring minds want to know…
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:47 am)The greatest form of advertisement any plug-in will need is to just plain have them available in a dealer showroom for people to touch, see, and drive for themselves. The next best advertisement is in the driveway for all the neighbors to see!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:05 am)Wait is the thread about what will demand be…or will Obama make 1,000,000 by 2015?
I’d like to report that as of 8:05EST this morning 67% of you are wrong and said yes…hehe
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:08 am)#10 Schmeltz couldn’t agree more. I think the million mark is limited not so much by customer demand but more importantly Supply. My father in law has a popular science magazine from 1964 that on the cover had an electric car that went 200 miles per charge and up to 80 mph that was due out 2 years later. I feel real sorry for the suckers that were holding there breath on that one. If even half the cars promised by manufacturers in 2011 come out to the showroom in that year I think we’ve got a great shot at 1,000,000.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:19 am)Intent to produce 85K over the next two years. So, that takes us to 2011. So that leaves four more years to ramp up to less than 250K per year by then. 250 million cars in the US right now. Pent-up demand from this recession, which will be over and done in two years (hopefully). 1 million e-vehicles sold by 2015 seems very possible.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:22 am)Lets just break it down a bit with some stated OEM goals/and generous projections and see how many EVs we can get out.
NO….lets not bother, here is why.
FIRST:
BY 2015 mean through 2014. Nothing is mass produced by anyone until 2011. So that is only 4 calender years
SECOND:
The goal is in the UNITED STATES. Up to half of the Volt’s production (by GM’s own mouth) is going international. You have to figure 80% of both the Toyota and Mitsu numbers are also NOT COMING TO THE US.
You need to get total EVs produced by GM, Toyota, Mitsu, Nissan, Ford, et. probably up to around 3 million to get even 1 million landed in the US….and that is not possible starting from a base today of virtually no production and no lithium battery infrastructure.
The plan is so ridiculous it hurts
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:23 am)It will depend on a number of factors including: peak oil prices, if a gas tax in enacted, if the economy pics up, if incentives continue and if there are no recalls on the Volt. I think we need all those things to happen and then we will be well on our way. I voted yes but there are alot of if’s.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:25 am)What ever the demand is, it will start out as a niche like the LCD PC monitors and after a while that’s all you will get.
Plan as if it is gong to be ubiquitous.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:26 am)500,000 from GM I think is realistic. I don’t know what other companies will contribute, not sure they know either.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:29 am)the USA will definitely reach one million by 2015. how ? simply increase the production capacity and better technology plus we can also import some from japan and europe but that is not advisable but anyway we can achieve if consumers are willing to buy and have foreign oil independence
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:36 am)the prices will come down naturally and we should give our technology to foreign companies to outsource from them and instead we must pay people manufacturing here high pay, that can be achieved technology replaces labour intensive jobs ,we must invest in technology and not outsource to japan china or korea. in this we will make everything cheap by ourselves and we can also export these cars
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:45 am)We’re sort of mixing up “demand” in the sense of how many people might like to buy, in our imaginations, with “number sold by 2015″. Right now the number sold depends more on the supply of cars by GM (or Mitsu or Toyota or others) than customer interest because, as we all know, there is nothing for sale at the present time in the USA.
So after talking about getting communities ready, or future model plans, or speculative customer demand, Mr Posawatz could give us some more information about where things stand in terms of contracts for parts, assembly lines, service training, and all the different aspects and limits on the supply side, as that seems to be where the real hold-ups (or at least question marks) are right now.
It seems to be that Mr Posawatz wants to talk about all these other speculative topics because he is trying to maintain interest and support without having anything to report on the supply side. He has a tough job right now.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:49 am)sudhamen @18 and 19
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I think you have some valuable things to say, but can you please write in sentences? If you use capital letters at the beginning and periods and the end it will be easier for people to read your thoughts.
Thanks.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:50 am)The demand will be huge. I hear it from my friends more and more. In fact, I have been lecturing on this topic in my social studies classes. I have exposed over 500 students about the Volt and electric cars in general and all of their advantages.
I must admit that the interest on the part of my students is huge. Much larger and more excited than I had anticipated. Those very students and all they tell about the Volt never show up in any survey because they’re under the radar. However, they influence their parents and relatives and will be purchasing a car in the next couple of years. I know GM will sell every Volt it builds and here in mid-Michigan the demand will be there I’m sure of it.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:57 am)I would be surprised if there are actually a million electric cars on the road by Jan 1st, 2015. It took over 8 years to get 1mil hybrids on the road. A lot depends on how our economy recovers and at what price gas is selling for. If gas goes back up to $4 per gallon the switch to electric cars is going to happen much faster than it will at $2 per gallon gas.
I think the adoption of electric cars will follow the adoption curve of other technologies.
1st generation purchased by the wealthy, eco sensitive and big oil haters.
2nd generation purchased by upper middle class, ie current prius/civic hybrid drivers.
3rd generation purchased by middle class. At this point electric cars will be the “norm” and make economic sense for people who have decent incomes over $50k per year
I myself would love to buy a first generation Volt but it doesn’t make sense financially for me. I currently drive a 1999 civic with 150k miles on it. I get 33mpg. Car has been paid off for 5 years and I’ll probably get another 100k miles out of it before it dies. Even at $4 gas it wouldn’t make sense for me to shell out the money for a new car.
I don’t know if other people are like me but I’m going to drive my current car until it dies. At that time I’ll see what is out there as far as electric cars and hopefully I’ll be able to find one that makes financial sense for me.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:00 am)I believe we must at least “position” ourselves with extensive options to be able to satisfy an extremely underestimated demand for plug ins.
The world has, for the last 100 years, been catering to Internal Combustion due to the lack of knowledge regarding carbon dioxide destructiveness.
It has been my hope that there would be a more favorable political climate here in Texas to attract GM and any other OEM to build a plug-in car (especially a plug in Compact Utility Vehicle CUV) plant right here in the Great State of Texas.
But, sadly, after hearing for myself on CBS/KEYE news just a few minutes ago, the veiled threat from Texas Governor Rick Perry, that:
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“It would be a shame if Texas left the Union”,
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(which it seems to me you might actually want to rule Texans).
that, no OEM would feel safe to build anything here for us to participate in the green electric motoring evolution.
Your statement “stinks” Governor Perry!
I can not understand how your remaining supporters can bring you forward to run for another term.
You also have just refused Federal help to help the unemployed in Texas, once again, because you said that there are “too many strings attached” (as the local news indicates).
Texas needs as many of the Voltec (that means the Volt electric drive system type vehicles in other GM cars), jobs, just like any other State might be able to apply to GM for production plants.
Partisan power games are ruining Texas.
Governor Perry,
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YOU
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HAVE BEEN MESSIN’ WITH TEXANS excessively-unwisely, in that investment in Texas is becoming perceived to be more risky by Corporate Executives, based on the things you say and the help to Texans you repeatedly block. (Federal help for children’s health care insurance, and, now , Federal help for unemployment).
There may come an impeachment effort soon from the Legislature.
And now, thirdly, you are driving corporate-confidence out of Texas for national corporations to now invest in factories here.
Most Texans demand high tech jobs, and, the potential for GM Voltec production from new plants right here in Texas for a tremendous number of degreed Texans must not be further interfered-with if there is any chance we could have them.
40 percent of the respondents in the survey above would agree with me. This is an enormous increase in public awareness for the desire for green electric motoring from even 6 months ago.
It is really disappointing that apparently, your service is to just a handful of fossil fuel interests and not at all the vast majority of Texans who must have employment. Very sadly, I do not think you care at all about Texans. You must be impeached.
Sincerely, yet regretfully,
Dan Petit Austin TX.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:13 am)14 Static I said the exact same thing on a different thread and was chastised. Glad to hear someone with a little reason and knows how to use the calculator on Microsoft.
15 John Young. You made a good point. In order for demand to spike for these cars early on the price of gas has to be Euro + high. I know the president would LOVE to add 2 or 3 dollars federal tax to the price of gas, but unlike cigarettes and booze, gasoline is an addiction we cannot break. A new gas tax in the next 2 years would kill any economic recovery and won’t happen. A new gas tax in the second 2 years would make Mr. Obama a ‘1 termer’. Don’t expect to see a big gas tax increase this term. If he wins re-election in 2011, THEN you will see the new gas tax!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:17 am)The issue will be both low supply and low demand. These cars are simply too expensive with too little return. I don’t think too much will change by 2015.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:29 am)#26 GXT says “The issue will be both low supply and low demand.”
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Seems plausible, so could be. But others imagine a much higher level of customer interest, such as Kevin R@22. We just don’t know until there are real cars for sale at real dealerships with MSRPs attached.
There may be a few people who are so committed to getting off petroleum (or whatever) that they are willing to buy any electric car at any price. For the vast majority, there will be some interest but a buying decision is going to involve many particulars — size, comfort, availability, warranty, and especially price. Without those, who knows?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:33 am)As a rule of thumb. Very ambitious goals, that sound wonderful and get brownie points that also do not fall inside the confines of that administrations term…are either bs or misguided/uninformed optimism.
(And that is not a reflection about the current administrations credibility…it is just a historical reality, long term goals like this just don’t pan out 99% of the time)
The farther out the deadline is…the less credible it is. Now if he would have said the goal is to have 100,000 cars in 2012, that would have be significant. Both timely and plausible.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:34 am)It’s interesting to see that as of now, 100 people have voted on the survey question above, but just 27 have commented so far. That means that a LOT more people visit and read this site than I thought. Most of them just don’t blog.
That’s almost a 1:4 ratio.
That’s encouraging!
GO GM
GO VOLT!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:34 am)I don’t think it is the absolute number that has been sold by 2015 that is the point. It will be the growth rate that matters. As to actually reaching 1,000,000, that would be a NO.
But hey, if the trend shows an annual growth rate of 30% year on year it’s all good. EG:
Year 1/ 40,000
Year 2/ 52,000
Year 3/ 67,600
Year 4/ 78,880
Year 5/ 114,244
Year 6/ 148,517
Year 7/ 193,072
Year 9/ 250,994
Year 10/ 326,292
NB: Even 100% growth year on year would not get to 1,000,000 by 2015.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:44 am)What statik says in #14. The numbers are clear, and those are optimistic predictions. When you break down the numbers it’s hard to see how you can get there from here. Unfortunately.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:44 am)cburk @23 says: I don’t know if other people are like me but I’m going to drive my current car until it dies. At that time I’ll see what is out there as far as electric cars and hopefully I’ll be able to find one that makes financial sense for me.
That’s my plan as well.
LJGTVWOTR
NO plug, NO sale.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:46 am)As Lyle points out, a million cars is something like 0.4% of the total cars on the road. DOT says the average lifespan of a car is about 13 years, which means over 46% of cars on the road will be replaced in 6 years. Do we really think we can’t average 1% of new car sales between now and 2015? (Yeah, I realize it’s way less than 1% now, so will need to be more than 1% later, but still.) With the government incentives, tighter emissions regulations (which will push manufacturers to make hybrids, and then why not make them plug-ins?) and everything else? This doesn’t really seem as big as it sounds when you break it down. But again, like Lyle says, baby steps. You have to have a million before you can have 10 million or 100 million.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:48 am)Hopefully when I am allowed to drive I will have a electric car or a small consumption car. I want to do by bit for the environment.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:49 am)There should have been a follow-up question, “Of the PHEVs/EREVs/BEVs sold, what fraction will be GM’s?”
I’d put it at less than one third; I see the competition as coming on very strong. Honda is back in the game, Toyota has several initiatives, Mitsubishi has a vehicle, Ford has potential on two fronts.
GM is going to have a lot of company.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:53 am)Let’s just assume GM and all the rest could MAYBE build 1,000,000 EV’s for the US in 4 years. Are there 1,000,000 people that could afford and would buy a $40,000+ car? I don’t think so … at least not in this economy.
I hope things change but it is going to be a long road to recovery especially now that our dollars don’t buy as much as they did last year.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:54 am)Right now, I would say that most people still don’t know what an EREV is. Most people have heard of the Volt, but many news outlets still don’t mention the range extender. There is a lot of confusion out there right now.
When people start having friends or neighbors tell them they haven’t been to the gas station in 4 months, the light bulb above people’s head will turn on, and EREV sales will take off like a rocket…
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:55 am)#36 Evil Conservative Says: Let’s just assume GM and all the rest could MAYBE build 1,000,000 EV’s for the US. Are there 1,000,000 people that could afford and would buy a $40,000+ car? I don’t think so …
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Right. Good thing the Volt doesn’t cost $40,000.
GM VP John Lauckner indicated he expects the Volt to cost in the mid 30s ,
http://gm-volt.com/2008/10/17/car-and-driver-on-the-volt-tens-of-thousands-in-first-year-generation-two-after-5-years/
and there is a $7500 tax credit. That puts the price of the Volt under $30,000.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:56 am)charlie h says GM is going to have a lot of company.
That’s the bit that really gives me hope. If one does it, they all will so as not to miss the boat. I think there will be plenty of room for everyone.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:02 am)#25 solo said:
14 Static I said the exact same thing on a different thread and was chastised. Glad to hear someone with a little reason and knows how to use the calculator on Microsoft.
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Lol, it comes with the territory I suppose. We all want a billion-faffillion EVs on the road by 2015…but that doesn’t make it so. A lot of people have difficulty giving up dreams for reality. (I’m still thinking about my comeback to baseball, hehe).
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:06 am)Just for fun, lets ‘bust down’ some numbers:
- (*) based on manufacturer’s estimates/l atest off the cuff remarks where possible, and assuming they can make all their goals (And assuming Chrysler dies, lol)
-(?) no estimates given, so replaced with ‘uber’ optimistic numbers
Tesla:
thru09: 500*
2010: 500*
2011: 1,500* (Model S scheduled for ‘late 2011)
2012: 20,000*
2013: 20,000*
2014: 20,000*
Ford:
2012: 5,000*
2013: 5,000*
2014: 20,000 (?)
Volt:
2011: 10,000*
2012 60,000*
2013: 60,000*
2014: 100,000 (?) (assumes second line and/or additional Voltec vehicles to market)
iMiev:
2009 2,000* (all Japan)
2010 up to 8,000* (all Japan/EU)
2011 up to 20,000* (introduced mid year in US)
2012 20,000*
2013 50,000 (?)
2014 100,000 (?)
Toyota Prius PHEV/iQ PHEV
2010: 500*
2011 10,000*
2012 25,000*
2013 75,000 (?)
2014 100,000
Everybody else (US numbers…too many EV startups worldwide to figure)
2010: 500
2011: 2,000
2012: 5,000
2013: 25,000
2014: 50,000
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Summary (with US percentage assumptions)
Tesla 62,500 (85% US) 53,125
Ford 30,000 (95% US) 28,500
Volt 230,00 (60% US) 138,000
iMiev 200,000 (20% US) 40,000
Toyota 210,500 (25% US) 52,625
Everybody else in US: 82,500
Total: 394,750
I don’t even know how anyone can argure their way up to a 1,000,000 EVs. Unless you are putting a HUGE production increases on the Volt in 2013/2014 and on Ford in 2014.
I’d like to see some who voted ‘yes’ to a million EVs in America by 2015 break down a list of how to get there.
/no penciling in the Volt for 605,250 in 2014 either, lol
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:09 am)Well, lets just see how fast they can make them. Selling them will be no problem.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:10 am)#38 Dave G.
I hope you are correct about the under $30k Volt ….. I doubt it But I still hope.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:15 am)I think that a lot of people are underestimating the ability of GM’s production lines.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:22 am)Less than a mile from my home is the “SMART” dealership. When the SmartForTwo was introduced here, gas was over $3.00 per gallon and they were selling like hotcakes. Now there are at least 10 lined up in front of the tiny (no pun intended) dealership.
Gas is creeping back up. Demand for the VOLT will probably be good for those who can afford it.
With all the ‘mule’ testing going on with a Cruze body, I’m sure those engineers are working on permanent modifications of the chassis for that upcoming model. An EREV version of Cruze is surely in the works. If they get that one priced at about $24,000 then the demand for GM hybrids will skyrocket.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:24 am)First on the demand issue. I think many people are delaying their purchases of new vehicles for a couple of reasons, a) the economy is poor and there is the threat of losing one’s job, and b) although gas prices are NOW $2 per gallon, there is no reason to believe there will be any long term stability at these gas prices.
Therefore, people are not only waiting for the economy to improve, they are waiting for more efficient vehicles. Look at the Saturn Vue, for example. In pure ICE form, the V6 model gets 16/22. With the 2-mode, the V6 powered model gets a projected 28/31. This is a 57% improvement! Many people NEED to drive every weekday to get to work. They are looking for an efficient vehicle that meets their everyday needs.
If the Volt can be delivered as promised, I believe there will be ample demand (but as #10 Schmeltz notes, nothing will better than getting a recommendation from a Volt owner).
Regarding production, 1 million Voltec cars on the road by 2015 is basically limited by consumer demand. In one month last year GM produced almost 12,000 Malibus in their Fairfax plant. That’s close to 150,000 per year.
With factories making the Volt, Converj, and a small Voltec Buick, I could forsee a production rate of up to 300,00 units per year by 2013. This means that GM, by itself, could likely build 1 million plug-ins by the end of 2015.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:25 am)Lyle, I’m impressed. The Volt site is looking real good with the new colorful ads. You deserve to be comped a Volt will the optional cables and solar recharge blanket. Good work doctor.
=D~
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:33 am)It all depends on the world economy. If it rebounds sometime next year and demand for oil shoots back up resulting in $4+ gallon gas, then demand for plug ins will be high. With more production and competition, prices will fall and make them more accessible. If high gas prices remain, then every car maker will have a plug in vehicle of some kind available by 2015. A million by 2015 is theoretically possible, but it’s a long shot. Remember, all Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Ford have to do is hang a battery charger and plug on their hybrids they are making now and they will qualify as plug ins.
If the economy stays sluggish for years and oil and gasoline remain cheap, then plug ins are for a rough ride and 1M is never going to happen by ‘15. Of course we all know the world will end in 2012, so it’s a moot point.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:39 am)The other question posed here by Lyle is just what is the demand? For sure the initial wave will be impressive, what happens when that is met? Will people accept paying $40,000 for a small car that gets 40 miles electric (or $35,000 for a 80 mile BEV?…I really don’t know.
You have to assume with initial ramping, basically nothing to maybe 400K thru 2015…is still a massive increase, on little to no existing infrastructure. That demand is going to keep the battery makers on the heels for awhile…which is likely going to keep a premium on battery costs for a little longer than we expect.
In 2014 you are looking at GM probably still trying to hock 60,000+ Volts @ $35,000-$40,000 with no more rebates. What concerns me somewhat with the Volt (and all the other EVs as well) is…..is demand as high as we think? I know there is demand of some magnitude, but is there a massive wave behind us ‘fanatics’ like we seem to think?
Lets look to Lyle’s own comment here to illustrate:
“On this independent site we have collected nearly 48,000 people since May 07 expressing similar interest.”
Pretty good right? Yupe, sure is. But what were we at last August? 40,000 people had signed up. The site has 10 times the traffic now as then, but only 8,000 more people have signed up in the last 8 months…and we aren’t taking about taking deposits here, or fear of bankruptcy. People are just putting their email address down….not a big committment to say the least.
It is the same vibe I get from people I talk to. I figure I have told 200 people in the last 2 years…4 or 5 said they were maybe down with it. Since then, if I ask them all again, only the same 4 or 5 people are still interested, the other 195 weren’t interested then…and have not changed their mind at all….they are either not interested at all, or scoffed at the pricetag (as in, the thought the price should be more $20,000-$25,000)
There is a danger here of extrapolating demand for EVs because we have all been wanting one fricken’ so long. Maybe it is best to be a little more conservative.
I’m not saying that is the case at all. I’m not representing anything here as fact…I’m just talking out loud (sort to speak).
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:41 am)I think it’s actually likely that, with latent demand and some economic recovery (and subsequent rising gas prices and other incentives), the demand will certainly exceed 1M cars thru 2015. (I have to assume “by 2015″ would be stretched to the last second of the calendar year, and beyond if they say it was built in 2015 and some hypothetical customer was waiting for it, etc.)
The real question is production, and while GM could ramp up possibly to 200k or more by 2015, I think it’s pretty optimistic that the whole market moves that fast. But, hey, I’m an optimistic guy by nature, so LET’S DO IT!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:47 am)Statik #41 (on the back of napkin said: “Total: 394,750″)
I agree with your numbers and think maybe they are even a bit optimistic. The ONLY way I can see selling a million EV’s by 2015 is by a really big, honking cash incentive upfront from the gov’t. available to anyone wanting an EV. I’m talking probably double Obama’s current proposal of $7500 per car. With say a $15,000 rebate off a $40,000 Volt, your’e looking at a $25,000 car. That’s competitive. Obama would be effectively fully subsidizing the added cost of every one of the EV’s to achieve a million units.
Rough calc’s:
(1,000,000 EV’s) x ($15,000/car rebate) = $15 Billion
So $15 Billion would be the rough cost of seriously standing behind the statement made of 1 million plug-ins by 2012 IMO. Any takers?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:53 am)#36 Evil Conservative Says: Let’s just assume GM and all the rest could MAYBE build 1,000,000 EV’s for the US. Are there 1,000,000 people that could afford and would buy a $40,000+ car? I don’t think so …
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#38 Dave G
Right. Good thing the Volt doesn’t cost $40,000.
GM VP John Lauckner indicated he expects the Volt to cost in the mid 30s ,
http://gm-volt.com/2008/10/17/car-and-driver-on-the-volt-tens-of-thousands-in-first-year-generation-two-after-5-years/
and there is a $7500 tax credit. That puts the price of the Volt under $30,000.
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I’ll let you still hold onto the mid 30s chestnut, hehe.
But that $7,500 rebate is long, LONG gone by even 350,000 EVs in America. Other than Ford, there is no one that has committed to any significant number of production in the US.
…and no way battery costs can come down that much while everyone and their dog is scrambling the globe looking for Lithium batters.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:56 am)WARNING: Predictable post follows: (g)
First let’s get the FIRST Volt on the road. We need to get Volt #1’s wheels off the end of the production line, before we can get Volt #1,000,000 off the lines.
“Little steps for little feet”.
Be well,
Tag
LJGTVWOTR!!********NPNS********Independence (from oil) Day – TBA
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:02 am)I’m tired of hearing nonsesne about a million EVs by 2015. Do a
little math (beyond “Austrian non-speaking” Barrack) and you’ll soon be convinced that million cars EVs on the road won’t accomplish anything : we have over 240 million private vehicles on the roads, consuming roughly half the oil we use. One million fewer cars
reduces demand an imperceptible ONE FIFTH OF ONE PERCENT.
That ain’t getting us to the promised land that chief buffoon Obama
is running his very big mouth about.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:03 am)#52 statik says “but that $7500 rebate is long, LONG gone by even 350,000 EVs in America”
How do you get this? The rebate is for 200,000 cars per manufacturer.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:06 am)#54 kent beuchert — Granted the number of EVs will be small, but the fallacy of your analysis lies in conflating the number of cars with number of miles driven.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:27 am)I voted yes, but I’m now thinking I was unrealistically optimistic after reading and thinking some of the comments here. Particularly statik’s views and numbers. Soooo, I withdraw my previous vote and vote no this time around. Is that allowed? lol
I still want a Volt, but figure it will be at least a couple of years before there are any significant numbers available in the Midwest of the US.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:38 am)My apologies for being a first timer.
I would like to respond to Statik’s request for an alternative breakdown. As a fellow Canadian with the utmost respect for Statik, who generally deserves more praise than scorn for his calculated insight, I think he may have overlooked a detail.
In your list you have added pure EV manufacturers and models as well as hybrids. Why stop there? As long as goal posts are being stretched would the administration in power in 2015 hesitate to include other forms of EV’s in the mix if they could declare that the 1 million target had been met? Would aftermarket conversions be included, such as those done now for the Chevy S-10 and Prius? What about NEV’s? They are I believe despised by many contributors to this site, but they fit the description of vehicle and are street legal in most streets even if they are not highway capable. By those standards, there are already 100,000 EV’s already on U.S. roads with an average annual increase of 28%, a market developing without the assistance and intervention of the federal government.
Perhaps you need to reconsider Chrysler. One of companies they have bought along the the way, G.E.M., has produced 38,000 NEV’s. Chrysler may die, but I suspect this particular division will survive bankruptsy as part of some larger automotive operation.
Projecting forward to the end od 2015, because goalposts will be stretched where possible:
Add 440,000 NEV’s and after market conversions.
Your total now stands at approximately 935,000 vehicles reaching the mall parking lots, if not the freeways.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:47 am)I notice no one is including European auto makers or india and china that are in production now . The stock pile of litum is higher than thought and the battery makers are starting on gen2 batterys as we speak . 1 million perhaps 2 million easy .
God Bless
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:49 am)Well, I voted yes, even though it’s a giant leap of faith. Come on guys, I’m trying to be optimistic this week!
#22 Kevin R:
Thanks for your very encouraging comment. I am convinced that we do have a high school/college aged population which is a lot more switched on about these issues than most people realize. Maybe they will rescue us from the mistakes of our generations.
#23 NZDavid:
Me too. I figure that the old Chevy will just about make it until I can get my hands on a Volt. I am looking for help from the “Cash For Clunkers” program, LOL.
#45 CorvetteGuy:
I dunno, we are seeing quite a few more Smarts on the road in CA. Especially since the local Hummer dealer turned into a Smart dealer. I am not making this up. Maybe “The Captain” owns them both.
#50 MC:
Me too. A little more optimism, if you please.
#51 Schmeltz:
$15 Billion? I’m in for that. About 2 months of the cost of the Iraq war. It would be a brilliant investment, IMHO. Save jobs, “stimulate” the economy, cut down on oil imports, cut down on air pollution, reduce the need for “oil wars”, what’s not to like?
I’ll trade you 107 F-22 fighters for a million Volts. How’s that for a deal?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:52 am)The $35-40k price tag make the Volt a non player in widespread expansion of the plug in market. That price point is just too high for anything more than a niche vehicle. Hopefully GM is sitting on a 20k BEV vehicle also that they can release after the Volt comes out. I guarantee Nissan, Hyundai etc have BEVs in that price range in the works. Those will be the game changers and lead to getting plug ins out to the general public.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:55 am)#58 MarkH:
Don’t apologize. Welcome. We need all the help we can get! Thanks for the encouraging and thought provoking comment.
If you happen to know, who is doing the S-10 conversions you mention?
Well done. Keep it up. Blog on!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:55 am)To be honest I think there is to much new oil coming into the matket for the various electric cars to be a big hit. JMHO
Take Care
Arch
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:57 am)#55 I think the rebate is for a total # of cars sold in the USA. Not per company but I could be wrong.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:59 am)#29 PLG actually there are an average of about 8,000 unique visitors per day on this site and around 80 individual commentators (some making multiple comments).
So those who comment actually only represent 1% of daily traffic. I have long been interested in these comments and stimulating new people to join in the discussion/.
In keeping with that, let me request that if you are reading this comment, step up to the “mike” today and say hello. After all it is you and me who need to help encourage others to adopt electric cars.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:05 am)Note that an AP report on the Fritz Henderson conference call is now up on the Yahoo news page. I could paraphrase, but I don’t want to spin it in a wrong direction. Better that you check it out yourselves.
#64 Evil Conservative:
I think that the original bill was for something like what you are saying, but it got changed to something more like 200K per manufacturer in the final version.
I think that someone posted a link to the final version here once. Does anyone still have it? Dr. Dennis?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:10 am)That’s easy. Let’s say the first plug ins come out in 2010, then you have 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014. So that’s 5 years. You have Fisker, Tesla (both of whom are planning on mass marketable cars in the next couple of years), Nissan, Ford (Focus EV), Toyota (their complete EV and plug in Priuses), Chrysler (who is planning on making at least 3 different kinds of EVs), GM, Mercedes, Volkswagen, oh and Hyundai is going EV big time for those who have been keeping track of that. Let’s say no others count like Think, Detroit Motors, or Jaguars (even though they are too). Maybe Honda and BMW will make one, I’m sure they will by 2015, but we’ll say they don’t. So anyway, you have 10 auto makers, 5 years of production. That means if each auto maker makes 20,000 a year, you have 1,000,000.
So it’s easily possible for production to reach that. You know gas prices will start heading back up here pretty soon. Couple this all with a $7,500 tax credit to the first 500,000 adopter from each of the 10 companies, and you have a very easy atmosphere for selling plug in cars. I’m expecting at least 2 million.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:13 am)I voted “no” for two good reasons.
1) Our good friend, “Range Anxiety”. This is the reason the Volt exists at all – range anxiety. All electric cars put the driver on a virtual leash – 100 mile range yields a 50 mile travel range (assuming the driver wants to go home and recharge at the end of their trip).
2) Possible future electric price hikes. It has happened before, and you can bet it will happen again, if utilities continue to use fossil fuels to generate power.
The volt gives you a choice – fill it with gas, or charge it with electric, whichever is cheaper. Choice is good.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:15 am)#various, various,
When we consider who’s going to do this, you can pretty much ignore Chrysler. They’re toast. They don’t have the R&D and manufacturing engineering to start anything worthwhile. Even if they connect with Fiat, they’re going to have a long dead period where they rebuild the company. Ford has some potential. GM is probably fully booked with the projects already on their plate and Saturn’s future makes a PHEV Vue unlikey.
—
#41, statik, “Let’s bust down some numbers…”
In spite of my above remarks, I think the chances are good for some impressive numbers in the market place, IF manufacturers think they can sell these at a profit.
In ‘97, Toyota introduced the Prius, with about 30K units/year of production capacity. In 2004, they introduced the Prius that they really wanted to sell, the Gen II, with about 200K units of capacity (might have been more like 250K). The difference between 30K units and 200K units is confidence. The manufacturer who is confident that his product will sell is going to risk more and have more capacity available.
What’s going to drive confidence is, same as ever, battery prices and capabilties.
Toyota is ramping up to nearly 500K units/year on two Prius lines/factories. The car is PHEV-ready. It’s not inconceivable that, if a PHEV Prius will sell, that Toyota could build massive quantities in a single year… IF they can get the batteries at favorable prices with capacities that they think make sense for the market.
It’s all “What will sell?” and “Who’s willing to go out on a limb?” Worldwide, there’s no $7500 credit, so it’s the US that skews the market. Will other manufacturers rush to fill the demand from overseas?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:18 am)#60 Noel Park:
Yeah, I also think $15 Billion is a relative bargain, to be the gov’t. impetus for boosting the plug-in movement to mass adoption. Considering the other billions that are given out like candy to Wall St. and all of the other “worthy’ causes.
In the instance of the Volt alone, you’re getting a (potentially) $40,000 car for $25,000 after a proposed $15,000 rebate. 25 grand is smack dab in ICE territory. A $25,000 Plug-in EREV coupled with the savings of mostly EV driving would be a total thing of beauty, and a formidable opponent against any other fuel sipper on the market. The President’s statement would at least have some fist behind the words.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:19 am)Lyle,
Gee, that makes all of us posters in the 99th percentile! Come on people, this is a great opportunity to FIND YOUR VOICE on a very broad range of cutting edge issues.
Be well (and participatory),
Tag
LJGTVWOTR!! (that stands for “Let’s just get the Volt’s wheels on the road!”)
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:20 am)Link for this morning’s Fritz Henderson / GM conference call:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090417/ap_on_bi_ge/auto_bailout
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:22 am)Here are some Makers to consider in the mix as well and many many more. Who knows 1mil might be too low?
Acura Cadilac Chevy Dodge Ford GMC Honda Hyundia Kia Lexus Lotus Mazda Mercury Nissan Saturn Scion Toyota
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:30 am)How about a large order from the federal & local governments to get closer to that 1-million???
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:30 am)#55 DonC said:
#52 statik says “but that $7500 rebate is long, LONG gone by even 350,000 EVs in America”
How do you get this? The rebate is for 200,000 cars per manufacturer.
========================
Ok, likely gone by 350,000. Gone for sure by 500,000.
Depending on how many cars you think Tesla (and ‘others’) can actually push out in the US. In my ‘uber’ optimistic list to try and see the absolute max production in post #41, I pencilled Tesla down for 53,000 of the first 400K, and ‘others’ (lol) as 80,000. In reality, those numbers are about as likely as me winning the gold medal for 100M dash in the Olympics.
Of the first 400,000 EVs for the US…GM has to have at least 200,000 of those.. T
he only real other players who are likely to have significant volumes are Toyota and Mitsu…and they are shipping very limited numbers to the US…the bulk of their run stays in Japan, and then the UK. Mitsu isn’t even bringing any production from the 2009 or 2010 over…and have only committed to some sales in 2011.
Toyota/Mitsu (even Nissan if they get to market) probably only ship 1 of every 5 cars to the US. So to get them up to 200,000 captive sales in the US, they probably have to have produced over a million cars total.
If have had to guess on the first 400,000. I would say it goes like this:
GM/Volt: 200,000
Toyota PHEV: 100,000
iMiev: 50,000
Everybody elese: 50,000
Hope that helps to explain my thinking. It is interesting to try and speculate what the landscape actually will be.
Just curious how would you see the competitions volume sold in the US as GM hits 200,000? (and the end of their rebate).
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:31 am)Are cars with engine block heaters considered “Plug In” vehicles?
What about my electric scooter I plug in?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:36 am)Given that current cars have in essence stalled the market . Plus the oppertunity to replace all 600 million on the road today you would think US auto makers would be going at the same pace that China is at getting something on the market today . China started late and is in production on a $20,000.00 model today and has sold all that have come off the line . GM has crash tested and is going to start in June at ten per month China is at 80 . Russia is in the process of start up .
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:40 am)#75 Statik – In your predictions you list “GM/Volt”, which makes it unclear whether you are also accounting for the tremendous market share sure to be enjoyed by impending PUMA juggernaut. An innocent oversight on your part, I am sure.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:44 am)Prius has a waiting list , China sold before manufactrure , Tesla sold out and a waiting list at $50,000 . Not a question on demand a question of GM’s desire to stop the electric car . Plus how much they can loose trying to stop it again . The cat is out of the bag and it is hungry and mad at GM . Get to work GM . Or you might just be dinner .
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:46 am)Regardless of the breakdown by marketshare, one thing is sure; Electric plug-ins will have a quite limited worldwide marketshare overall until rapid-charge technology is developed to allow drivers to recharge at public locations within a few minutes. The US and Canada have a fairly large percent of their populations living in single familiy homes that easily facilitate overnight charging, and as such this is where plug-ins will enjoy their greatest success in the short term. But much of Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world park their cars in public areas where this is not so easy. It’s hard enough to find a parking spot in a city without worrying if the spot has a charge port.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:48 am)I#62 Noel Park
If you happen to know, who is doing the S-10 conversions you mention?
I believe the biggest company involved specifically in S-10 conversion used to be Canadian Electric Vehicles, located on Vancouver Island in British Columbia. I say used to be because that company outgrew the local conversion market and switched to commercial electric vehicle production. They special now in industrial trucks for airports. If you look out on the tarmac at LAX the service vehicles are all electric and at least some of them came from this company. Would service vehicles count toward the 1 million target?
I don’t know if they still do S-10 conversions themselves, but their website still lists the conversion kits they have been using for 12 years, along with a range of electric motors.
For the average American looking for an S-10 conversion, the parts kits are probably the crucial item anyway. Why freight the whole vehicle to or from a converter? Competant mechanics should be available anywhere in the U.S. Specific American companies specializing in conversions include AmpMobile Conversions in North Carolina and Grassroots Electric Vehicles with locations in Florida and Nevada.
For the record, I think the 1 milion target is impossible if freshly minted hybrids are the sole consideration. A significant tax credit for conversions would change the equation. Every desperately struggling car dealership on the continent has a well equipped and trained service team that could put a guarantee on a conversion of their own models, if the will was there.
I have never sold a car as a trade-in. Personally, I’m the type that prefers to drive them until the cost of repair exceeds replacement value. In all but one case, the cause of death was engine failure. A $10,000 conversion makes little sense from that perspective, but a tax credit dropping my cost to $2500 would have kept me in my last van.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:52 am)I voted no. There are not enough, if any, plugins readilly availble to buy and the ones that are are friggin expensive. By the time 2015 hits, Insight and Peeus, will have been on the market for over 5 years leaving the Volt to hopefully get it’s share after the previous two have already been proven again.
So, in 2011, begining with the Volt, is there going to be any other non niche for the masses production plugin vehicle?
I’m going to have to wait for Gen 2 Volt guys. I won’t be able to jump on the latest and greatest tech ride due to a full year of furloughs. But I do hold fast on the fact that my/our next car will be a plugin or BEV.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:55 am)@k-dawg 76
“What about my electric scooter I plug in?”
AHAHAHAH!!!!
In that case, I have 3!!!
All LiFePO4 powered!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:14 pm)Cars, maybe. Vehicles, easily, if companies ever figure out how to market the superior off the line PERFORMANCE of electric drive.
The power of the hoon.
http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/electricross/
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:18 pm)I think there are many ifs but demand should not be one of them.
First if, Can the battery companys keep up.
second if, will we get out of the recession sooner rather than later.
third if, is gas still under or about $2.00 a gallon. probably not.
fourth if, Will GM get any additional money from the gov to build additional production lines.
I think demand will go threw the roof for E-REV type vehicles
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:22 pm)#70 Schmeltz:
Amen.
#72 StevePA:
Thanks for the link. You gain great merit by rescuing the technologically challenged (moi).
Bankruptcy is “probable but not preferred”. What do we make of that? Probably as statik predicted yesterday, one more inning in the hardball game. How about no talks going on with the UAW or the bondholders as they revise their “viability” plan? Tick tock, tick tock.
#78 Jim in PA:
PUMA, LOL. Come to think of it, what about Zenn and Eestor? Haven’t heard much from them lately. They ought to be good for a few hundred thousand with their technology, what?
#81 Mark H:
Thanks very much. I wonder if they have a way to retrofit regenerative braking? If they did, I could get pretty tempted to do my S-10, which is getting pretty close to the stage you described with your van.
As usual, Lyle said it better than I ever could at #65. Getting the blog’s voice heard is a numbers game, IMHO. Any comments are good comments, just like any ink is (used to be?) good ink. Keep up the good work, it really helps.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:25 pm)#60
“$15 Billion? I’m in for that. About 2 months of the cost of the Iraq war. It would be a brilliant investment, IMHO. Save jobs, “stimulate” the economy, cut down on oil imports, cut down on air pollution, reduce the need for “oil wars”, what’s not to like?”
Sad part is many people don’t think 15billion is a big deal anymore. That’s the sad part.
Just because it is the same amount of waste as 2 month of Iraq war dosen’t make waste any better.
AS for demand for electric cars. It will not be great until they are priced about the same as regular cars. Pure EVs will never have real demand.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:29 pm)Off topic,
But can we get an update on the countdown clock at GM?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:34 pm)# 80
Jim in PA Says:
April 17th, 2009 at 11:46 am
Regardless of the breakdown by marketshare, one thing is sure; Electric plug-ins will have a quite limited worldwide marketshare overall until rapid-charge technology is developed to allow drivers to recharge at public locations within a few minutes. The US and Canada have a fairly large percent of their populations living in single familiy homes that easily facilitate overnight charging, and as such this is where plug-ins will enjoy their greatest success in the short term. But much of Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world park their cars in public areas where this is not so easy. It’s hard enough to find a parking spot in a city without worrying if the spot has a charge port.
___________________________
With Europe’s high gas prices (taxes) and essentially carbon taxes on ICE’s by many EU states and big tax breaks on zero emission vehicles, combined with often shorter commuting distances, there’s a reason why Japan is planning on sending most of their impending BEV’s to Europe. There’s more to the picture than millions of consumers searching for a plug.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:38 pm)#78 Jim in PA said:
#75 Statik – In your predictions you list “GM/Volt”, which makes it unclear whether you are also accounting for the tremendous market share sure to be enjoyed by impending PUMA juggernaut. An innocent oversight on your part, I am sure.
——————-
touche
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#69 charlie h said:
In spite of my above remarks, I think the chances are good for some impressive numbers in the market place, IF manufacturers think they can sell these at a profit.
In ‘97, Toyota introduced the Prius, with about 30K units/year of production capacity. In 2004, they introduced the Prius that they really wanted to sell, the Gen II, with about 200K units of capacity (might have been more like 250K). The difference between 30K units and 200K units is confidence. The manufacturer who is confident that his product will sell is going to risk more and have more capacity available.
———————–
I understand where you are going, and the point has been brought up several times that if demand is there, production ramps. (much like your example of the Prius).
The problem is where the goal post is and how high and where we start from.
GM is going to be working like a dog to get car#1 which for all intents and purposed hits the market in 2011….and by their own admission can only get out 10,000 more the first full year, and then hopefully they can get a full single line going full speed the year after that with 60,000 units.
For hitting the deadline of 1 million by December 31st, 2014 it really isn’t about demand…it is about how many is it possible to make?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:44 pm)Agreed with whoever put forth the idea of a$15,000.00 Tax credit especially if it is only for vehicles that can meet the EPA driving test and get 40 miles all electric is a good idea. I would even accept a decreasing amount based the past years taxable income.
Regarding my last post with a list of ifs.
ONE MORE IF, if the tax credit can be applyed at the time of purchase rather than be received after your taxes are paid.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:49 pm)#69 charlie h said:
Toyota is ramping up to nearly 500K units/year on two Prius lines/factories. The car is PHEV-ready. It’s not inconceivable that, if a PHEV Prius will sell, that Toyota could build massive quantities in a single year… IF they can get the batteries at favorable prices with capacities that they think make sense for the market.
======================
This is a great point…and the true wildcard. With Toyota’s massive footprint already build in to the market and the new Prius engineered to accept this option…coupled with it being just that – a option, not its own whole new entity. It gets classed as a PHEV, and gives them the potential to produce up to 500,000 probably by themselves (if it catches on, and is priced right).
Right now Toyota has basically committed to nothing more than coming to market in late 2010. They are the only manufacturer to give no estimates on production at all…or how many of those they even will they sell in the US. If Toyota gets behind hit, they could sell pantloads…if they meander around and stick with the ‘Lithium is ok I guess…we’ll sell it if everyone else is’ attitude they have going…not so much.
You’ll notice I penciled them in for over 200,000 produced in my ‘optimistic goals’ by 2015 in post #41:
Toyota Prius PHEV/iQ PHEV
2010: 500*
2011 10,000*
2012 25,000*
2013 75,000 (?)
2014 100,000
I pretty much gave them a virtual tie for market lead, 200,000 copies without so much as a peep out of them, lol. They could just as easily do 50,000 or 500,000.
Additionally, the set up of their PHEV requires so many fewer cells, they can produce 3-4 PHEVs for every 1 Volt….so capacity is not really a issue for them after they get up and running for a year or so.
BIg, big asterisk here…I was thinking about getting into it with my post in #41, but I thought it would get the whole point of the exercise sidetracked, lol.
/thanks this point
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:53 pm)This is such a great automotive drama! I’m on pins and needles to see how it will come out!
One could start with the EV1 and the documentary, “Who Killed the Electric Car?”
Then Tesla Motors, with entrepreneur billionaire; Silicon Valley startup builds first practical electric car since the EV1. Goads GM Bob Lutz into the Volt “moonshot”
Dr. Lyle Dennis starts website GM-Volt.com. Builds unprecedented awareness of a car with a revolutionary powertrain that could free the US from it’s oil addiction, reverse global warming, save the environment and finally defeat the Sith! (Just kidding about the Sith!)
GM overcomes all technical obstacles to prepare to build the first mass produced “extended range electric car.”
But wait! Economy collapses! GM asks for Federal loans! Republicans say NO! First African American US president elected. Praise God! A Democrat! GM gets loans.
But wait! Economy worsens, loans not enough, President’s auto task force says GM should prepare for bankruptcy and Volt program not a money maker. Volt program on the edge of cancellation!
GM teeters on the brink of bankruptcy!
Stay tuned!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:55 pm)@old man 92
“$15,000.00 Tax credit for vehicles that can meet the EPA driving test and get 40 miles all electric is a good idea.”
That will only allow GM to raise the “Actual price” of the car to reduce their loss margin. These tax thingys are just smoke screen for the actual price of the cars. If it affected/reduced the amount I put on paper for the loan of the car when I buy it And/Or affected/reduced the monthly payments as wel as reduced the taxes imposed on the purchase then sure,it’s a great deal. But the truth to this falacy is it’s a smokescreen for the upfront purchase to make you think it’s less. In the end, neither you loan amount is less nor your monthly payments. Now considering most people purchase on the monthly payment aspect of a car, does it really do anything to sell it?
Big smoke screen……
..ooOO( – POOOF – )OOoo..
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Apr 17th, 2009 (12:55 pm)Statik 91
In 2011 or 2012 if the economy rebounds and investors see money being made while they sit on their hands, just like in any previous year of an upward market, money will be invested in new vehicle lines. This will happen whether there is any hope of a reasonable return on capital or not.
Expansion will occur until consensus is reached on what the new level of overcapacity will be for OEM’s to maintain or gain market share. Spin it rinse it and repeat it until there are no longer executive suites at OEM’s, because the pattern will repeat itself, the markets will turn down again, share prices will drop precipitously and investors will always be burned by the red ink.
Will there be a million by 2015, the answer is blowing in the wind my friend.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:00 pm)@noel park 60
“$15 Billion? I’m in for that. About 2 months of the cost of the Iraq war”
You can’t have it!!!
All funds (and military personnel) are being reallocated to Pakistan. Sure there’s change……lol.
Yeah, changed from troops and $$$ in Iraq to Pakistan.
What a Joke!
He’s an Obamination to us all!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:05 pm)#97
CaptJackSparrow Says:
April 17th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
@noel park 60
“$15 Billion? I’m in for that. About 2 months of the cost of the Iraq war”
You can’t have it!!!
All funds (and military personnel) are being reallocated to Pakistan. Sure there’s change……lol.
Yeah, changed from troops and $$$ in Iraq to Pakistan.
What a Joke!
He’s an Obamination to us all!
_____________________
So you want to turn it into a political thread, are you that bored?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:05 pm)As a retired Air Force veteran, who watched America’s military might aim at the Middle-East desert simply to pull one commodity out of the ground at enormous deficit pricing, not to mention our American taxpayers subsidizing the entire world’s secure Oil – I’m ready.
Someday not another son or daughter will need to go over there and do what me and my retired Air Force wife did for a career serving the country.
BRING ON THE ELECTRICS – CHEVY VOLT American-made, American-FUELED.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:06 pm)@jeffhre 98
“So you want to turn it into a political thread, are you that bored?”
Alright, alright….
I take it back. My bad.
=oP
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:09 pm)@JBFALASKA 99
“BRING ON THE ELECTRICS – American-made, American-FUELED.”
Ima give you a big “Amen Brotha” and a “He|| YEAH!”
Oh wait, that didn’t sound right…
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:11 pm)So you think we need higher fuel costs to make plug-ins attractive?
Here they come.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=GM%3AUS&sid=a6e67ivAeplc
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:12 pm)To those above, I need the tax credit. $40,000 is pricing point too much higher than $32,500 after the tax credit. I’m buying using the Obama credit offered as part of the stimulus package. Or whomever passed that important credit.
Studying Europe, tax credits have helped move them away from oil in transport – significantly.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:15 pm)It’s all about the batteries (and their pricing, and their availability).
Anything else is flotsam and jetsam.
What if there IS suddenly(OMG) a lot of cheap oil per Arch?
X(EV)s will have to compete to get real sales numbers, government intervention or otherwise.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:20 pm)@ Shawn Marshall 104
“What if there IS suddenly(OMG) a lot of cheap oil per Arch?”
Then we disconnet the Volts battery and run on petrol till it goes up again. And it will go up again and down again and up again and down again…….
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:20 pm)Anybody seen this yet?
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/archives/2009/04/the_case_for_gm_update_from_gm_ceo_fritz_henderson.html
Fritz is discussing bankruptcy quite a bit in here.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:33 pm)I voted yes.
Statik requested a breakdown of numbers; here’s one :
Yr 1 : 40000
Yr 2 : 74800
Yr 3 : 139876
Yr 4 : 261568
Yr 5 : 489132
Total : 1 005 376
I realize that it means an average of 87% increase each year. But I believe that demand will increase exponentially for that new technology.
The US economy is based on planned obsolescence, requiring that people buy a new product every so often. Life span of a car is around 13 years. So 38% of the cars on the road will need to be replaced during the 5 years span of 2010 to 2015, probably more if you consider the slow sales occurring in the years previous to 2010 (right now).
A number of people are aware that a new technology is around the block and are waiting for it. I know a few myself. I believe that the 1 million goal will be easily reached. People will get excited about this when it becomes available.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:42 pm)Oh, here’s some more
Audi, Bright Automotive, BMW, Buick, Mini, Mercedes, Pontiac, Chery, Hummer, Infiniti, Jaguar, Jeep, Land Rover, Lincoln, Mitsubishi, Porsche, Subaru, Suzuki, Volkswagen, Volvo
I’m up to 36 now I believe
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Apr 17th, 2009 (1:46 pm)106 Tall Pete: (By the way, how tall are u?)
I think and hope electric(ish) cars sell well. But you have to also consider this.
People in the market for this type of car are in the market for a CAR, specifically a small one. Even if 38% of vehicles are replaced every 5 years, how many are actually smaller cars?
Folks like construction workers, people with ranches or farms, people with boats or campers, people with bigger families (Ever see the Duggers or BIll and Kate on TV?), aren’t going to give up a truck/SUV for an economy car. It just doesn’t fit their life.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (2:09 pm)Top ten electric vehicles you can buy right now.
From (autobloggreen) Feb 2007
Tesla Roadster, UEV Spyder, Phoenix SUT, Miles ZX40, ZENN, GEM e2, Smart EV, Mullen L1X-75, G-Wiz EV, Kurrent
Plus Zap’s Xebra,
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Apr 17th, 2009 (2:16 pm)Solo @ 108
6′ 4″
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Apr 17th, 2009 (2:32 pm)WE might do it if electricity isn’t $7-$10,00 a gallon equivalent for gasoline. As the fools are attempting to legislate that it will be.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (2:34 pm)Solo @ 108
You are right that only a fraction of the 38% will be interested to buy a car like the Volt (or any other compact). But on the other hand, there are many variables to take into account :
1) Availability in other segments (ex. : Cadillac) that wil broaden the offer to more people
2) Price of oil : it makes sense that soon (2012 and after) prices in the US will reach Europe levels, generating demand for electric cars and providing the administration with a hefty budget to subsidize the market
3) Decrease of battery prices : depends on a lot of things but sure to happen in years to come
4) Longevity of Li-ion battery : as soon as we know that Li-ion technology last as long as predicted, GM will stop doubling its price, decreasing considerably the price of electric cars
5) Research : there was not much research done on chemistry for batteries so far. They will improve greatly in the next 5 years and confidence will build
6) and many more I’m not thinking of right now, lol
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Apr 17th, 2009 (2:48 pm)Shawn @ 103 says:
It’s all about the batteries (and their pricing, and their availability).
==============================================
Too true. I’d also add their range. Any big development in energy storage has a lot of potential for being a game-changer.
Now, I’m certainly not banking on any, don’t get me wrong. But if, by some miracle, steorn or eestor or whatever shelby claims to have or some other technology was legit, was proven, it would wreak havok on all our estimates.
Better battery storage or something eestor like could alleviate range anxiety, which would make a big difference.
Any non-pluggable but portable power source that took off would reduce plug-in vehicles on the road.
But whether any of these technologies, even if proven by the end of this year, could be developed and put into production in time to make a difference by 2015, I just don’t know.
But any technology that did alleviate range anxiety might end up having a detrimental affect on hybrids, in favor of BEVs. And it’s all dependent on cost, too, of course.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (2:53 pm)With Fritzy now saying “bankruptcy probable” today this all might be a mute point. Lets hope the Volt lives to see the light of day.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (3:04 pm)Even if we get the Fritz Blitz, quick bankruptcy, I think there will still be a “Volt”. (IOW 40mile AER car w/a range extender).
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Apr 17th, 2009 (3:14 pm)When an affordable Electric vehicle can be placed into the hands of the “Plugged In” Generation they will be in demand immediately. Ie electric Scion type vehicles…
The second gas approached $3 a gallon and it will…people will be dreaming of well performing electric cars and trucks.
Just build them and get us off imported oil.
Get ready now…because next time (coming to your town again I promise) fuels go nuts people will be heading to electric vehicles like mad.
I’m wondering how difficult it is to offer the Volt with or without the Extended range option.
Just dig deeper into the battery and get the same range as Tesla.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (3:17 pm)Can we? Yes, we can. Will we? No. The cars will be expensive, the economy is still a mess, many of the cars will be delayed, and even if there manage to be enough buyers out there, there will not be enough cars available.
But I’m hoping we can at least get close.
BTW, remember, bankruptcy will help the Volt more than hurt it. It will reduce debt, reduce labor costs, reduce healthcare costs, etc.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (3:26 pm)Oil has always, since 1880’s anyway, trended back to the 30 – 45 dollar range ( Held constant for real dollars ). That is the one thing my crystal ball tells me I can count on. It looks like with the BRIC’s ( Brazil remains energy self sufficient, Russia less so going forward ) coming on strong something drastic will have to make this price level stabilize again in the future.
I believe it will stabilize at historic levels because energy commodity prices are interrelated. Since the 70’s conservation and efficiency have kept oil in line for the most part considering demand, existing oilfields peaking and attempts to find cost effective substitutes. Perhaps the electric car is that drastic effect that will substitute for enough oil so that supplies can keep up with demand, considering the fast growth of BRIC’s.
Or perhaps the financing of energy development will be radically changed from the status quo after the downturn and new oil fields will come online faster than anyone expected. In any case the needs for new energy will create new arrangements and solutions that aren’t predicted by anyone’s crystal ball that I’ve seen so far. Even good ones like Statik’s.
The problem with predicting the future is we tend to extrapolate in a line from today instead of trying to understand how the many ongiong changes, some small and insignificant looking ones also, will create unforeseen effects moving forward.
/ Rant complete – IMHO – no sources cited – ignore it if you please – NPNS
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Apr 17th, 2009 (3:32 pm)#116
vincent
Tesla battery 53kWh not 8 or even 16kWh and it’s a much lighter car.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (3:33 pm)#41 – statik
Though they will not add tons more, there are other makers of EVs:
Myers motors, Aptera, Th!nk City, Chrysler Circuit, etc. And potential EV makers: Subaru, Nissan, BMW mini, Smart car, etc.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (3:37 pm)#110 – Tall Pete
You’ll fit into the very small Th!nk City EV . . . here is a 6′ 5″ guy in a Th!nk City with room to spare:
http://electricaid.ning.com/profiles/blogs/electricaidorg-is-challenging
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Apr 17th, 2009 (3:45 pm)Lyle @65 says:
“…actually there are an average of about 8,000 unique visitors per day on this site and around 80 individual commentators (some making multiple comments).
So those who comment actually only represent 1% of daily traffic.”
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Wow, Lyle, I am totally embarrassed at how much I
underestimated the number of visitors to this site each day!
But that’s a good thing, as it makes me even more encouraged about the future for the Volt’s EREV technology.
Thanks for all the time and effort you put into this!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (3:48 pm)Let’s do the question in a more interesting way. Everyone knows that the demand is affected by the price. So the following list gives my guess as to how many Chevy Volts could be sold (assuming that number is to be built) over a full calendar year in the near future, such as 2012).
My guesses are:
@Price each –> Number sold.
$80,000 –> 100
$30,000 –> 100,000
$12,000 –> 1,000,000
I know the top and bottom lines are unlikely amounts but it is interesting to put them in the table to understand the limiting prices.
How would you change this table?
That is, where am I wrong?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (3:49 pm)The demand will be incomprehensible, the production will be inadequate.
I compare it to the horse and buggy, it took only ten years to vanish out of the cities, if looking at old pictures is any indication.
Plugging the car in instead of visiting a gas station will be a revolutionary experience.
Viva la revolution!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (4:12 pm)#75 statik says “Ok, likely gone by 350,000. Gone for sure by 500,000.”
My problem is that I don’t understand why you say the credit will be gone by 350K. Every manufacturer gets the full credit for the first 200,000 vehicles. Then there is a phase out period when the car from each manufacturer is still eligible for a credit but at a reduced rate. But the credit never goes away until every manufacturer hits the 200,000 mark and goes through the phase out period.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (4:13 pm)I have been talking up E-REV design and the Volt for about two years now. But what I find different from statik is that many of those people are now really asking me valid questions about the Volt, and if I still think it is the right way to go. I just show them the magnetic bumber sticker I have on my garage wall.
My Next Car Will Be Electric – gm-volt.com
The count of plug in vehicles by 2015? Too many unknown variables to really give any kind of accurate prediction. Except for the one that will I will buy and drive!
KentT #93: I think your story line will make a great movie. Can I suggest that Ernest Borgnine take the part of Jim I?????
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Have a great weekend everyone!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (4:18 pm)Static was right the first time that the 1 million car topic came up for discussion. Looking as far ahead as 2015 is a pointless gesture for an administration that won’t be in power beyond 2012. Obama may be re-elected but his administration may be substantially different in a second term as may Congress. His statement of itself is no more meaningful than Ronald Reagan’s claim that the space station would be finished by 1990 at a cost of $10 billion dollars.
The global car makers his forecast is based on could not predict the current recession even 2 years ago. How will they or he plan effectively for the next six when companies such as GM don’t know how they will be structured in less than 2 months?
The focus should be on what may pass during the term of this administration. How many electric vehicles will be on the road by the end of 2012? What support will this government give to put them there and keep the numbers growing at a sustainable rate?
I believe a ray of hope exists, but we need to show others that a reality exists that can be built on or it will be dismissed as the science fiction it once was.
That’s what we need realistic projections for. How can any government be held accountable unless we are first clear about where we are and what steps can be seen.
I didn’t mention NEV’s and conversions to show a weakness in Statik’s logic. I mentioned them because they are 98% of what exists today.
I watched these threads without comment for two years and Lyle’s done a great job. What I really need to see though is how others are actually making electric cars a reality.
If I could drive an NEV here in Alberta, I would buy one tomorrow because they are affordable and they exist. I can’t they aren’t legal here yet and I need to use a freeway for 5 miles. I want to buy an electric vehicle during this four year term. I don’t think any of us should be looking farther ahead than that. You can’t generate enthusiasm among your friends if you haven’t really got anything to show them. So what’s it going to be: a car that may be produced someday or a conversion that my wife would never trust to seat her children in?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (4:46 pm)jeffhre @118
Oil has always, since 1880’s anyway, trended back to the 30 – 45 dollar range ( Held constant for real dollars ).
(…)
I believe it will stabilize at historic levels.
—————————————————————————————————————-
You’re right, it will. But in Europe, the price they pay at the pump is much higher due to taxes and it explains why they went for diesel over there : taxes were less on diesel fuel.
At one point, if we want to get off oil, we will need gas prices to be much higher and then, over time, the electric technology will become cheaper and more affordable.
Change is just a matter of policies. If you keep doing the same old, same old, nothing will ever change.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (4:49 pm)Any State Government worth their salt should not be thinking of GM as unapproachable to request a Voltec vehicle production plant (or two) to be located in it’s borders for future jobs.
Many seemingly have a mistaken concept that a reorganization means a firm no longer exists. Also, there are a thousand multiple pathways to get anything that is in the public interest accomplished. “Linear thinking” (one-track mindedness), has always been an insufficient approach to solving any set of problems.
One concept that I learned about GM vehicles (38 years ago when I first started to work on my 1961 Buick Special), was, that no matter how apparently difficult or hard it seemed to at-first work on a GM car, that GM engineers
*********************
ALWAYS
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built their vehicles for relatively-easy service, and, that if I did not find any particular job to be relatively-easy to do, that it always meant that
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there was a better approach that did work easily on a GM car.
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This is the lesson that I would like to share with posters and readers of this thread. Don’t take only just one or several approaches to accomplish anything. Instead, think relentlessly about other possible approaches to achieve your goals.
Right now, there are incredible opportunities for all State Governments to invite GM (et al) to commit to build E-REV vehicle production plants in your States.
It costs either extremely little or nothing at all to plan to “position” your State to apply to get an E-REV production plant.
Yet, I have not heard much on the news that the various State leaders anywhere in the US have publicly begun exploring this.
*************************************************************************************
This is a very serious “wait & see” mistake you are all making.
*************************************************************************************
In just a few more months, various windows of opportunity will begin to close, just because you do not feel you “have enough information” to be convinced to act immediately. Do not expect of yourselves to understand every (or any) technical aspect of E-REV.
Just immediately have a leap of faith that your college grads and post grads in electrical and mechanical engineering are needing you to act now to begin to talk to GM.
As this occurs, a new economic synergy will begin to take place.
There is, essentially, a need for 75 production plants of various kinds for the new green motoring evolution to get started, in my estimation.
Just call GM ASAP.
Dan Petit Austin TX.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (4:54 pm)Don @ 121
You’ll fit into the very small Th!nk City EV
—————————————————————————————————————
I know, I drove one last year – well, it was a test drive really and it was the regular Smart, not the electric one – and I fit perfectly well in that car. It’s really a fun experience.
My wife was not that enthousiastic though
. So the Volt is a much better choice. Since she saw the Volt on Regis and Kelly and said it was a fine looking car, I think I will make my case easily.
Have you tried the Think City ?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (5:05 pm)Oups !
I confused the Smart with the Think !
My mistake. So I didn’t try a Think yet but looking at the picture, I doubt my wife will like it : -)
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Apr 17th, 2009 (5:12 pm)@ 129 Dan Petit,
Hey I thought you guys (Texas) were leavin’ the good ol’ US of A?
Ask Quebec for advice.
(queue for new topic Lyle)
TGIF
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Apr 17th, 2009 (5:17 pm)Hey gents. BIG point- a critical factor in how many Volts GM will sell will be the marketing- specifically how well they communicate that the Volt in many respects is a luxury car with ‘V6′ power. GM take note! Electric cars must not be advertised as just economical small cars which happen to have no emissions. They are a new kind of car, with a new kind of quietness no other car has which will make driving a pleasure, and V6-like torque in even small cars. *This* is why they are worth the premium- they are in a luxury class, not in competition with Corollas and Focuses. ‘An electric car drives like no other’ or something needs to be gotten into the consumer’s head. What do you gents think?
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Apr 17th, 2009 (5:50 pm)Statik #90
“GM is going to be working like a dog to get car#1 which for all intents and purposed hits the market in 2011….and by their own admission can only get out 10,000 more the first full year, and then hopefully they can get a full single line going full speed the year after that with 60,000 units. ”
Not that this will have a huge affect on the likelihood of 1M plug-ins, but did GM say 10k in first full year or 10k in first model year? If model year, then 2012 model could start shipping mid 2011 and accellerating their ramp up schedule by 6-8 months.
As others have mentioned, the likelihood of 1M by 2015 goes way beyond simple demand. Battery capacity has to ramp way up and prices have to come down. Carmakers won’t be going all out ramping up capacity unless they see profitability on the horizon. If GM does decide to build the Converj and the can profitably sell it for $70k (or whatever price is reasonably profitable), they will plan and ramp capacity for demand. If they do indeed not make a profit on the Volt at $40k then there won’t be any incentive to ramp up for demand. There may be incentive to ramp up to lower costs, but this is a different animal then ramping for demand. All of this assumes an unlimited capability to supply the needed batteries.
In any case goals are by definition something to strive for. 1M for 2015 is very ambitious but why are so many framing this as a bad thing? If we had set a goal to make halfway to the moon, that is likely as far as we would have gotten. Perhaps Obama should have set a interim goal of 350k at the end of his fist administration, but 1M means a lot more. This creates a certain maturity to the technology and likely around where the market can carry itself with enough battery, control hardware, and other EV specific capacity.
Helluva lot better to have 1M goal than the goal to nowhere of most of the last 28 years.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (5:58 pm)Justin DT #133
Absolutely! That is perhaps GM’s MOST important marketing objective after generating an understanding of what Voltec is as far as the average Joe is concerned. The other are equally as important but they will self market well. GM should unquestionably draw a clear distinction between the level of performance and sophistication in the Volt and that found in economy cars as well as other hybrids like the Prius.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:22 pm)http://autos.yahoo.com/articles/autos_content_landing_pages/963/first-drive-chevy-volt-test/
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:58 pm)it wont be a million volts by 2015 but it may be 2 million BEV from all the manufacturers together.
Toyota is apparently dropping the price of the Prius to $20k to compete with Honda, and they will probably follow suit.. then Toyota pops in a $5k 10mile pack in the Prius, and along with $4 gas they start to fly off the dealers lots.. you would have to be crazy not to consider a $25k plug in Prius with gas at $4 or higher.. dont forget inflation is also coming..
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Apr 17th, 2009 (6:58 pm)BIG!
Any further PUMA developments?
GO EV!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:12 pm)#134 koz:
As to the goal, amen.
As nasaman pointed out recently, this is the country that did the Manhattan project in 5 years and sent a man to the moon in what, 10? We can do it if we make the commitment. I have absolutely no doubt in my mind.
President Carter said 30 years ago that energy independence is the moral equivalent of war. It was true then, and it’s just as true now.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (7:28 pm)Justin DT #133
The problem is, the fit and finish of the Volt is like an economy car, but with a luxury car price tag. It doesn’t have high end components of a luxury car. So I don’t see how they can market it to the luxury market. Those in the luxury segment would probably be more inclined to buy a Tesla S.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:43 pm)Well, I certainly want one. It would be perfect for me. I never drive 40 miles during the week, motoring to the Metro stop 5-6 miles away and sometimes to the grocery store. I most likely wouldn’t use any gas during the week.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (8:55 pm)It’s all about the battery. If we have a great battery that can be purchased in the volumes needed then we will get that 1 million and then some.
If the batteries stay as expensive as they are today then no, we will not get there. It will be cheaper to just run old, tiny Geo-metros (or similar) around. In a tough economy, that’s what people are going to do.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:02 pm)#106 Tall Pete said:
I voted yes.
Statik requested a breakdown of numbers; here’s one :
Yr 1 : 40000
Yr 2 : 74800
Yr 3 : 139876
Yr 4 : 261568
Yr 5 : 489132
Total : 1 005 376
I realize that it means an average of 87% increase each year. But I believe that demand will increase exponentially for that new technology.
The US economy is based on planned obsolescence, requiring that people buy a new product every so often. Life span of a car is around 13 years. So 38% of the cars on the road will need to be replaced during the 5 years span of 2010 to 2015, probably more if you consider the slow sales occurring in the years previous to 2010 (right now).
A number of people are aware that a new technology is around the block and are waiting for it. I know a few myself. I believe that the 1 million goal will be easily reached. People will get excited about this when it becomes available.
===================
I’m glad someone made a stab at trying to get to a million.
Unfortunately you inadvertantly proved yourself wrong. I’ll add on the years to your chart. The first year anyone has a outshot shot if landing 40K in the US 2011 (still pretty remote…we only have the Volt with 10K maybe, and the PHEV Prius-but how many land in the US? I dunno, a handful of Teslas and iMievs)
This is 2009 and we certainly have nothing in the next 8 months. For 2010 we only have MAYBE 1 month of limited production from GM/Volt…and a couple months of the PHEV Prius. So your year 1 at 40,000 has to be 2011.
Yr 1 : 40000 -2011
Yr 2 : 74800 -2012
Yr 3 : 139876 -2013
Yr 4 : 261568 -2014 and your out of time, but still a very optimistic total of 516,244
————–
Yr 5 : 489132
Total : 1 005 376
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:07 pm)#134 koz said:
Statik said, “GM is going to be working like a dog to get car#1 which for all intents and purposed hits the market in 2011….and by their own admission can only get out 10,000 more the first full year, and then hopefully they can get a full single line going full speed the year after that with 60,000 units. ”
—————-
Not that this will have a huge affect on the likelihood of 1M plug-ins, but did GM say 10k in first full year or 10k in first model year? If model year, then 2012 model could start shipping mid 2011 and accellerating their ramp up schedule by 6-8 months.
=============================
GM is very careful with the wording, they said they estimate production at 10,000 units for the first full year after production starts.
They don’t committ to any specific year…one could assume that allows for a continuous goal for the staff to strive for if the November 2010 doesn’t go so well.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:12 pm)I remember that GM said 20,000 the first year . Now ten per month so that went from 20,000 to 1,200 in six months . Ford went from 1,200 to 5,000 during the same peroid . I think I will look at a Fusion E-rev .
I have stock in both Ford and GM so if GM fails then I buy a Ford .
The Ford gets 57MPG in town .
One way or the other go GM go .
Or is that go Deago go.
God Bless
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:32 pm)#145 Edwin Mang Says: I think I will look at a Fusion E-rev .
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Ford isn’t making an EREV, only a PHEV. Big difference!
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Apr 17th, 2009 (9:53 pm)Barring a miracle, Statik is right. There just isn’t the moonshot intensity of focus to get 1 million on the road by then. I hope I’m wrong. Obama would do well to procure thousands for departments of the government if he truly thinks he can hit 1 mil. You also gotta have something like a DARPA grand challenge for batteries- funding research is not enough. Only frantic competition can produce the low cost crazy-good batteries we need in a such short time span. Barring that, we just have to wait a few years for economies of scale to kick in. I’ll bet we take this route, which means we need to wait quite a while.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:16 pm)#125 DonC said:
statik says “Ok, likely gone by 350,000. Gone for sure by 500,000.”
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DonC said, “My problem is that I don’t understand why you say the credit will be gone by 350K. Every manufacturer gets the full credit for the first 200,000 vehicles. Then there is a phase out period when the car from each manufacturer is still eligible for a credit but at a reduced rate. But the credit never goes away until every manufacturer hits the 200,000 mark and goes through the phase out period.”
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Wrong–>”…the credit never goes away until every manufacturer hits the 200,000 mark and goes through the phase out period”
The credit goes away regardless of what any other manufacturer does, (the exact text is attached below).
2) PHASEOUT PERIOD.—For purposes of this subsection,
the phaseout period is the period beginning with the second
calendar quarter following the calendar quarter which includes
the first date on which the number of new qualified plugin
electric drive motor vehicles manufactured by the manufacturer
of the vehicle referred to in paragraph (1) sold for use
in the United States after December 31, 2009, is at least
200,000.
‘‘(3) APPLICABLE PERCENTAGE.—For purposes of paragraph
(1), the applicable percentage is—
‘‘(A) 50 percent for the first 2 calendar quarters of
the phaseout period,
‘‘(B) 25 percent for the 3d and 4th calendar quarters
of the phaseout period, and
‘‘(C) 0 percent for each calendar quarter thereafter.
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=111_cong_bills&docid=f:h1enr.pdf
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The argument that you have waded into was:
(recap follows)
#36 Evil: How are people going to be paying the 40K price tag thru a million sales.
#38 DaveG: They won’t they get a $7,500 rebate and think the MSRP will be under 40K
#52/#75 Me: “No, the rebate will be long gone by 1,000,000…probably toast at 350,000 sales in the US. I redact to say it is likely gone at 350K, for sure at 500,000
The $7,500 rebate is done the quarter they hit 200,000…it becomes $3,750 thereafter for 6 months…and that ain’t $7,500, which was my point. Then it is $1,875, for 6 months more….then nada.
Soooo, in conclusion, there is only 2 ways GM has burned through that rebate completely way, waaaay before a million units, they are:
1.) Toyota sells 700,000 PHEV Prius (IN NA no less) before GM gets outs 200,000
2.) GM goes from a production level of 60,000ish to 500,000 on exactly the date they sell unit number 200,001
I think I have explained myself clearly enough now though links and charts, lol. However, I would love to see a chart from you that illustrates to me how GM is still giving out $7,500 credits when the 1,000,000th car is sold in the US.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (10:35 pm)#148 statik (me):
Actually the more I read that bill, I think it should be interpreted as the rebate changes from $7,500 on the 1st day after one full quarter expires. It is tricky, the more you look at it, the more it becomes it moves around…like one of those 3-d holograms.
“…the phaseout period is the period beginning with the second
calendar quarter following the calendar quarter which includes
the first date on which the”
So I’m officially (lol) going with the rebate period could go from 90 to 180 days after vehicle number 200,000 is sold…depending if it came at the beinging or end of the calendar quarter. Not that it makes a big difference to our 1,000,000 vehicle discussion….but handy to know nonetheless.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:03 pm)1. Oil price spikes and lines at gas stations will result in exploding demand.
2. Minimal maintenance costs and longer life will also improve demand but also mean that many dealers will go out of business when this becomes dominant car because of falling maintenance income and car life of 500,000 miles.
3. Replacement batteries will be cheaper, greater capacity, greater power in/out and longer lifetime. Again adding to desirability.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:33 pm)Statik says: So I’m officially (lol) going with the rebate period could go from 90 to 180 days after vehicle number 200,000 is sold…depending if it came at the beinging or end of the calendar quarter. Not that it makes a big difference to our 1,000,000 vehicle discussion….but handy to know nonetheless.
That’s how I read it as well.
The reason for wording it this way is timing. After car 200,001 is produced the quarters figures are released in the next period, obviously. As people need to know what credit they will get when they buy the car, the start date for the reduction needs to be the quarter after. I would fully expect ‘production delays’ if it means placing car 200,001 at the beginning of a next quarter, along with the ‘buy it now’ ad campaign. hehe.
Incidentally, for GM the 200,000 figure includes Volts, Buick, and the Converj. However, if Saturn is spun off, it will not include sales of the Opel Ampera that nasaman will buy.
If NEV’s need to be licensed (illegal here), then they will be counted in the total.
Finally, I think lots of posters here are like me, in that, they feel uneasy about being beholden to a foreign source of fuel, with the attendant periodic price spikes and slumps. I really think, the next ‘2008′ spike year and lots of people will say, “I don’t care, I just want off oil”. So all we need to know, is when will the next spike hit? JMHO
LJGTVWOTR
NO plug, NO sale.
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Apr 17th, 2009 (11:45 pm)BobbyG says: 1. Oil price spikes and lines at gas stations will result in exploding demand.
Coming to a gas station near you!
Volt owner spots dismissive neighbor in long line, stops alongside and says “Hi Harry, who’s the stupid one now? Sometimes you just got to pay a little extra for freedom. See you later, I got to go and suck on some beers while I recharge.”
PS: Lines to get conversions for lucky 2010 Prius owners will also stretch around the block.
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Apr 18th, 2009 (12:48 am)#151
NZDavid So all we need to know, is when will the next spike hit? JMHO
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I’d guess once every 30 years off the top of my head.
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Apr 18th, 2009 (1:24 am)I think we need to stop plugging in our can openers and pencil sharpeners, those electric appliances waste electricity peforming functions that can easily be done manually. People should also make an effort to charge cell phones and other batteries at night when demand is low.
This would help make room on the grid for plug in cars.
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Apr 18th, 2009 (6:20 am)Motor Peak Power: 200 kW (268 hp)
Regenerative braking; Lithium-ion battery
Independent front and rear suspension
Range extender SULEV gasoline engine and electric generator
Continuous electric power: 55 kW (74 hp)
Tire size front P245 / 45R20 28.7 inches / 728 mm
Tire size rear P245 / 45R20 28.7 inches / 728 mm
0-60 mph (0-100 kph) approximately 7 seconds
Standing ¼-mile mid-14 seconds
Top speed greater than 120 mph (approximately 193 kph)
All-electric range 40 miles (approximately 64 km)
Total driving range up to 400 miles (approximately 644 km)
http://garfwod.250free.com/Photos/Chrysler%20200C.jpg
http://www.allpar.com/cars/concepts/chrysler/200C.html
=D~
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Apr 18th, 2009 (6:37 am)Statik @ #143 – To date, has there been a projected production number announced or leaked for the Johnson Controls/Ford lithium battery plant, to be built in Michigan, ground-breaking should be later this year? Same question regarding GM’s battery pack assembly? These facilities may or may not fit your definition of an OEM, but they should provide a pretty good baseline for how many E-REVs GM and Ford could collectively produce at the cheapest price point.
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