Comments on: GM Committed to 1 Million Plug-ins By 2015 – MultiBlog Live Chat With Britta Gross Right Here 4PM EDT

By: statik

statik — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 01:59:42 +0000

#165 solo said:

Math time folks.

GM estimated first year production of Volts (Ill leave out the plug in View for now) is 20,000. (Nov 2010 to Nov 2011)

Second year GM estimated production of Volts is 100,000. (Nov 2011 to Nov 2012)

So far we have produced 120,000 vehicles in 2 model years.

For Model year 2013, 14, and 15 they would need to produce 1,000,000 – 120,000 which equals 880,000 by my Microsoft supplied calculator.

880,000 / 3 model years equals a production rate of 293,333 vehicles per year, somewhat more than Toyota sells of the Prius.

I don’t see those numbers, esp. in a prolonged recession.
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You seem to be implying GM itself would be trying to get to a million. Not sure why this would be a ‘math issue’ The goal for Obama is just a million EVs on the road in America by 2015…thats everybody, domestic and foreign all in a big heap.

As for GM specifically, your numbers are a little dated. GM is on record for production to be 10,000 in the first year after production, then 60,000 the year(s) after that.

Because they are only using 1 of 3 lines at the Hamtramck, the could maybe really, really push it to 70-75K in year three, but capacity is about 60,000 copies per year. There is no way to go above this number with the setup of assembly. There would likely be no decision to open a second line for the Volt shy of going of it going to Europe…where they would eventually like to move all the production/Gen 2. So you are looking at something like this as a best case (provided they hit their goals):

2011: 10,000
2012: 60,000
2013: 75,000
2014: 75,000

Thats 225,000…tops. Then you have to subtract the fact that GM is not just building all these cars and selling them domestically…they are pushing this a ‘world’ car, and they have inferred in the past that up to half the production will be going to international market as well. So maybe 150,000 copies stay in the US.

You have also put 2015 in your ‘math’ for some reason, which is a non-year as Obama keeps saying 1 million by 2015…to me that gives him to December 31st, 2014.

By: N Riley

N Riley — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 01:56:31 +0000

At some point in the future what GM is saying will be true. But, for the first 10 to 20 years it will not be necessary to have all of this build up of power sources. Sure, it would be nice to have those things, but just not necessary. GM is playing political correctness with the electrification of their vehicle fleet with the federal, state and local governments and other groups that they feel must be on their side to not protest the creation of a large fleet of electric cars. I understand why they are doing it, but they are doing it too soon. Doesn’t hurt, but just is not necessary yet.

By: Eric E

Eric E — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 00:59:05 +0000

“GM feels such a cultural shift will need to take place to enable the plug-in car revolution too. Collaboration between carmakers, utility companies, municipalities, governments, individuals and corporations will have to occur.”

This is crap… Just build them. NOW!

By: solo

solo — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 23:31:33 +0000

Math time folks.

GM estimated first year production of Volts (Ill leave out the plug in View for now) is 20,000. (Nov 2010 to Nov 2011)

Second year GM estimated production of Volts is 100,000. (Nov 2011 to Nov 2012)

So far we have produced 120,000 vehicles in 2 model years.

For Model year 2013, 14, and 15 they would need to produce 1,000,000 – 120,000 which equals 880,000 by my Microsoft supplied calculator.

880,000 / 3 model years equals a production rate of 293,333 vehicles per year, somewhat more than Toyota sells of the Prius.

I don’t see those numbers, esp. in a prolonged recession.

By: Zach

Zach — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 22:15:21 +0000

That’s impressive! Plug-ins sound easier and cheaper than ever!