We are bearing witness to an apocalypse of world finance. Square in the eye of the storm is the auto industry.
Its hard to fathom the events of the past 24 hours. The President of the United States fired GM CEO Rick Wagoner, and though he specifically said the government “has no intentions of running GM,” its hard to argue that they won’t be playing a major role. This is reasonable to expect considering how much money taxpayers have already invested and will continue to invest to reorganize the company.
It seems the White House is sincere about its intent to sustain GM either with or without bankruptcy.
But how will the Volt fit in? Certainly one might feel a bit melancholy about the loss of two of the Volt’s main linchpins, Lutz who steps down as vice chairman after today, and now Wagoner who is gone.
The Volt team and its engineers, and other supportive high level VPs remain in place.
The President’s Task Force on Autos issued a brief analysis of GM business operation ahead of Obama’s announcement that explains how they determined viability. In that document the following statement is written:
GM is at least one generation behind Toyota on advanced, “green” powertrain development. In an
attempt to leapfrog Toyota, GM has devoted significant resources to the Chevy Volt. While the
Volt holds promise, it is currently projected to be much more expensive than its gasoline-fueled
peers and will likely need substantial reductions in manufacturing cost in order to become
commercially viable.
Since the government now decides what stays and what goes, could the Volt get thrown out with the bathwater? I would think not considering how important the White House views electric cars and energy independence, and their realization that new technologies are always more expensive at first.
“As the White House has said, they do not intend to run a car company, much less make product decisions. They recognize the Volt for the game changer it is. And yes, no kidding, that costs money up front. But, this is a long term play for us.” GM spokesperson Greg Martin told me. “Not to fear, the Volt is safe.”
And to be certain, on his last day I turned to none other than soon-to-be former GM vice-chairman Robert M. (Maximum Bob) Lutz.
“Thanks for your concern. Volt will survive and prosper. We know the numbers better than the Government…we furnished them! First-generation technology is expensive, but you can’t have a second generation without a first generation,” Mr Lutz wrote me in an email. “Common sense and intelligence will prevail, here!”
This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 at 5:51 am and is filed under Financial, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Mar 31st, 2009 (6:00 am)First
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Mar 31st, 2009 (6:03 am)If the Volt does survive, it is due in no small part to Lyle and this website. While Tesla and Fisher barely clear sales of 4 figures, 2 years prior to sales, the Volt has a waiting list half way to 6 figures.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (6:14 am)I just hope the Volt/Ampera will be my next car as I always thought since the day I connected to gm-volt.Com for the first time.
JC NPNS !!
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Mar 31st, 2009 (6:16 am)I’m confident the Volt program will continue as long as a path to viability is seen but warm and fuzzies don’t come from costs provided to the government by GM. Build the Volt and continue to cost reduce Voltec and leave the grandstanding behind.
NPNS! LJGTVWOTR! Start your own recovery plan and buy North American (not to be confused with government protectionism)
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Mar 31st, 2009 (6:25 am)Given GM’s earlier estimation that it would initially take a loss on each Volt it sells (much as Toyota allegedly did initially with the Prius), it’s hard to argue with the conclusion of the task force that the Volt is not commercially viable.
But Lutz is only stating the obvious when he notes that you can’t get to a (presumably) less expensive Gen. 2 without Gen. 1.
Now, we all have to hope that the Obamanistas’ desire to foster energy independence and a rennaissance in American automotive technology will persuade them to keep this program on track.
All this reminds of that ancient Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.”
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Mar 31st, 2009 (6:26 am)“GM is at least one generation behind Toyota on advanced, “green” powertrain development.”
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The above statement is a bunch of crap. The two mode trans is more technologically advanced than the Prius.
I ask, why do we knock ourselves? is it so we can push ourselves harder? I don’t get it.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (6:39 am)Just why is it a smaller firm can produce a vehicle like the Roadster or Aptera or Fisker (E-REV) when GM can’t do it with only a fraction of the range for a FRACTION of the cost? This is ridiculous. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Time to look to Darwin.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (6:41 am)Everyone seems to be completely blind to the fact that just 24 months ago Americans were still buying massive ego-stroking Hummers and Suburbans and Escalades like hotcakes. It wasn’t until gas prices spiked that there was a sudden shift to preferring gas economy. I keep seeing phrases like “For years GM has been making cars nobody wanted to buy” and “GM has slipped generations behind Toyota” but the fact is that they were making exactly what America wanted to buy — big smelly gas-guzzling muscle cars. I’ve always hated the fact that people wanted such big cars all the time, but you can’t fault GM for giving people what they wanted.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (6:45 am)Behind Toyota? Nice to see our govt. supporting our engineers and companies! The two-mode hybrid system is more advanced than the synergy drive and the voltec is indeed a leapfrog.
It’s the politically motivated – everyone elses way is always superior to the American Way – attitude that diminishes our economic future.
GM’s approach to hybrid technology is and has been so much broader and more practical than any other. (Guess what! Some families need a lot of room in their vehicles *and* contribute greatly to the economy while liviing their busy lives)
It’s the lack of support at so many levels of media and govt. that have stymied a great company and its awesome products.
I hope GM and the Volt can survive this “Help”. I hope Ford Executives are patting themselves on the back.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (6:53 am)Lyle’s post says
But how will the Volt fit in? Certainly one might feel a bit melancholy about the loss of two of the Volt’s main linchpins, Lutz who steps down as vice chairman after tomorrow, and now Wagoner
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That is very well stated. We are in deep space, insofar as the Volt.
Working at a place that at some moments has tried to respond to similarly vague government instructions, I think GM is most likely to go through the task-force report, make it into a list of bullet points, and try to fulfill each one. Unfortunately the comments about the Volt are negative, so the Volt program is unlikely to get much support. At the same time, the Volt is a symbol of hi-mileage green cars, so the Volt program will be hard to kill. My guess is that the program will continue in inertia mode for the next months, that present contracts for 400 batteries will run to completion, and that GM will make the prototypes. On the other hand, anything after that is very uncertain. Any substantial expenditures (as for a production line for significant numbers of Volts) will require higher level approvals from somebody. Such approval will be risky and very slow in coming.
When big bureaucracies become uncertain their reflex is to go slow or do nothing on everything until who is in charge becomes clear and new directions are received. Right now everything is murky. Every person is wondering “where do I stand? will I keep my job?” Who at GM has time to pay attention to something like Voltec when the government already has spoken of Volts in such a disparaging way? At the same time, who at GM has any time or inclination to start a Volt production line or do anything else new or different? Too risky, and besides, all the best people are using every free moment trying to get jobs someplace else.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (6:54 am)Quote: Presidential Auto Task Force Concluded Plug-In GM Volt Likely “Too Expensive To Be Commercially Successful in the Short-Term”
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:03 am)Lutz -”“Thanks for your concern. Volt will survive and prosper. We know the numbers better than the Government…we furnished them! First-generation technology is expensive, but you can’t have a second generation without a first generation,” Mr Lutz wrote me in an email. “Common sense and intelligence will prevail, here!”
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Translation: “The government can piss off, you can’t build anything new without first paying your dues…eventually those morons will figure that out”
Oh Bob, it is your last day and you are rolling without a filter…who would have guessed it? We can look forward to progressively more and more over the top comments.
/can’t wait
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:05 am)To be true, they need a cruze hybrid (better word : erev) with a 10 mile battery A hybrid at $17k. or volt should be sold for $17K because they are looking for big numbers. The maximum they can prize is $21k.
Investments in volt will pay back, if they can scale up and down the technology.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:09 am)The two-mode hybrid system is more advanced than the synergy drive
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It’s interesting how many people claim that, yet provide no information to support it.
In reality, the additional gearing isn’t competitive. It adds too much cost for too little gain.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:11 am)I hope the work on the Volt is continuing at full speed but I wonder. I heard a GM ad on the radio yesterday, and it referred to the _Soon to be released 2012 Chevy Volt_
2012? I thought it was going to be the 2011 Chevy Volt released in 2010? The radio ad was generated by GM marketing, are they walking back on the November release due to a slowdown at GM?
I feel like a Etruscan soothsayer trying to predict the future by looking at the entrails of a butchered sheep. I am not sure if I blame Wagoner, the UAW, the bondholders, or the MBA’s that run GM the most, but they all are partly to blame for this tragic trainwreck.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:14 am)Also, today is HUMMER D-Day! Remember Wagoner’s promise in the last viability plan that HUMMER would definitely be sold or shuttered today?
Here is the quote: “We will make a final decision to sell or phase out HUMMER by March 31st of this year”
Surely, they can hit this one right? I mean they have announced HUMMER is dead or sold with ‘many interested buyers’ at least a half dozen times over the past year.
Troy Clarke (Pres of NA Op) said today, “Our efforts to sell Hummer are proceeding, and there are several parties interested — and I would say really interested — in the brand…We’re still very much in the process, although that process is maturing.”
HUMMER spokesperson Nick Richards said Monday night they are “cautiously optimistic that we will report a favorable outcome to our efforts to sell HUMMER within a very short time period.”
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:16 am)Given GM’s earlier estimation that it would initially take a loss on each Volt it sells (much as Toyota allegedly did initially with the Prius), it’s hard to argue with the conclusion of the task force that the Volt is not commercially viable.
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Not soon enough was what they actually said.
Of course “Volt” will be commerically viable… eventually. But waiting several years and limiting quantity in the meantime, like Toyota did with Prius, is not realistic when taxpayer money must be paid back.
That’s why reconfiguring Volt to be competitive quickly is becoming the best next step.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:16 am)Of interest (and perhaps on topic with Volt surival information):
Fritz Henderson (newly minted CEO) will be taking to the microphone to ‘Discuss Announcements Made By President Obama’ @ 10AM this morning, if you care to watch it, here is the link:
http://gmtv.feedroom.com/?fr_story=9e40d5175d757a342d3c22d827c272010a1fa9a8
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:23 am)#7 Dave B Says: Just why is it a smaller firm can produce a vehicle like the Roadster or Aptera or Fisker (E-REV) when GM can’t do it with only a fraction of the range for a FRACTION of the cost?
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For the Tesla Roadster and Fisker Karma, remember that it’s fairly easy to hand-build expensive sports cars.
For the Aptera, remember that this is classified as a motorcycle, so many of the standards that apply to cars don’t apply.
For the Tesla Model S, remember that they haven’t even started building the manufacturing plant yet, and they have zero experience doing mass production. All they have now is a hand-built prototype, which they could never sell at $50K and make money. So expect some bumps in the road here…
Also, Tesla, Fisker, and Aptera all use regular consumer electronics Lithium Ion batteries, which wear out after 5 years, and can explode or catch fire. All have designed the pack to contain an individual Li/Ion cell explosion or fire, but if the pack is ruptured in an accident, that may be compromised.
By contrast, the Volt doesn’t use consumer electronics Lithium Ion batteries. They use a special Lithium Iron Phosphate chemistry developed by LG Chem especially for GM’s Voltec cars. These batteries last 10-15 years and never explode or catch fire. In addition, the Volt only uses 1/2 of the battery capacity initially to insure that you will have the full 40-mile range over the entire 10-year battery warranty.
So I believe the Volt is the only electric car that has truely been designed for the masses. All of the others have issues with price, range anxiety, battery life, safety, etc..
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:23 am)#18 statik — thank you for the link to Fritz Henderson’s upcoming comments.
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He will try to put his own voice to “yes sir, no sir, anything you say sir.” But his task, and it’s a tough one, is to stem the panic in his own ranks. The toughest maneuver to manage is a retreat under fire.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:28 am)The Volt is truly a remarkable vehicle and it would be a devastating blow to the industry if it didn’t make it to the dealerships.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:28 am)#8 Bob says Everyone seems to be completely blind to the fact that just 24 months ago Americans were still buying massive ego-stroking Hummers and Suburbans and Escalades like hotcakes
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Not only that, but the present auto “recovery”, such as it is, shows strength in big cars and trucks, not small ones. By and large Americans prefer bigger vehicles. In this respect, Wagoner was right.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:29 am)“As the White House has said, they do not intend to run a car company, much less make product decisions.” HA HA HA HA HA… that’s a good one!
This administration is EXACTLY like the last administration because what they SAY and what they DO are usually polar opposites.
Say: “We must be fiscally responsible and tighten our belts”
Do: Biggest spending bill in the nation’s history all on borrowed/created debt. Keynes would be so proud!
Say: “We will have complete transparency”
Do: Not giving congress time to read bills before voting. Those who voted Aye on any bill they did not read are Traitors!
Say: “We will put all spending bills on the internet 7 days before the vote.”
Do: Place propaganda on a website with no real substance.
Say: “We will get out of Iraq”
Do: Troops there indefinitely and send MORE troops to Afghanistan
Say: “No more Earmarks & Pork… ever!”
Do: PorkZilla and Porkzilla II, (the sequel) are almost ALL earmarks.
http://www.benjaminbradley.com/politics/obama-lies-about-earmarks-in-stimulus-bill/
Say: “We don’t want to run the auto industry”
Do: Appoint a committee to “oversee” the auto industry and fire GM’s CEO because it’s politically good to be seen as “doing something” other than just digging a huge debt hole.
Maybe these Statists should have just obeyed their OATH to the Constitution and let Bankruptcy work instead of giving $Billions in taxpayer debt (Fiat “money” created out of thin air) to for-profit companies all FOR NOTHING?
Only those fools who still watch the Chairman’s propaganda arm, CNBC still have faith and hope. It won’t be long before the American people get tired of the lies, doublespeak and wake up to the Chairman’s/banker’s hidden socialist agenda. Central planning NEVER works! (Just ask the Soviets)
Welcome to the USSA!
“A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine.” -Thomas Jefferson
“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” — Thomas Jefferson
“From my cold, dead hands” — Charlton Heston
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:29 am)I have mentioned this before, but the President’s Task Force on Autos’ statement that the Volt is not commercially viable and that GM is plowing a lot of money into it, is exactly the right thing for them to say…if they did not, it would not be much of a ‘task force’
They are charged with the ‘task’ of assessing if GM can stand on its own two feet, and to suggest the things that need to be done now to make them potentially solvent and able to continue operations.
Their job is not to interpret executive policy on electric cars, or what is the right thing to do for the environment, or to assess if this technology will give GM a competitive advantage 10 years from now. Their job is to see if a large American auto company can slip through the eye of a needle and come out a profitable entity on the other side…and what scenario gives them the best odds of doing that. Certainly the Volt is no help to GM over the next 5-10 years in that regard…and I’m thinking the government is not keen on supporting them that long, lol.
Again, it doesn’t matter what their (PTFoA) opinion is on the Volt. They are doing their job, they are just going to file a report. If GM gets the bondholders/UAW to capitulate, or if the gov’t pushes them through a GSB…the will of the executive will certainly keep the Volt program alive (imo).
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:34 am)#6 Joe Says: The above statement is a bunch of crap. The two mode trans is more technologically advanced than the Prius.
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When it comes to parallel hybrids, I would say Toyota has the edge in practical terms. After all, they’ve been perfecting it for the last 12 years.
But we must realize that this type of car will never achieve energy independence. Not even close. We need electric drive.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:38 am)#8, Bob.
I heard the same thing on the radio this morning, and it’s just a paliative. Toyota and Honda own the sedan, midsize and smaller car market. They own it.
They won it by giving the consumer VALUE.
GM could not or would not sell a product of comparable VALUE.
No one put a gun to GM’s head and said “build lousy cars for 30 years, so that anyone 40 or younger will NEVER put quality and GM in the same sentence.”
If I hear another apologist for GM say “but the cars we are building now exceed the quality of Honda, Toyota, and Nissan” I’m going to barf, because it cannot be proven AND it is irrelevent. That JD Powers (or whoever it was) survey is just that, a survey, for THREE YEARS of essentially random data. Collect data for 7 years and 150,000 miles, THEN compare REAL data on REAL cars with REAL repair costs, on enough cars to actually make a factual statement.
In 2015 when I see real data on what the average actual cost of ownership was on a GM car purchased in December of 2008, and it’s better than every comparable vehicle, THEN I will be convinced.
Until then, it’s all marketing.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:38 am)#20 RB said:
He will try to put his own voice to “yes sir, no sir, anything you say sir.” But his task, and it’s a tough one, is to stem the panic in his own ranks. The toughest maneuver to manage is a retreat under fire.
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Fritz is a good guy, (well, he is the right guy), very intuitive/smart . I have been dying for Wagoner to step down the last couple years, with the hopes that Fritz would take over. Hopefully, there is enough time left and he is up to the task.
I have no quams/hesitation about him taking over, he is the right guy for this environment. I always felt like he was trying to be a realist and Wagoner was muzzling him with his over-optimism all the time, which only eroded GM and the government’s position.
What we need now is some straight talk, and enough with the ‘bankruptcy is no option’ nonesense…no more sugar coating everything, just say how it is and how you want to fix it. I think thats what all Americans want from companys in this situation (on the take)…tell us how bad it is, and what your plan is to get out.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:48 am)#24 statik Says: Certainly the Volt is no help to GM over the next 5-10 years in that regard…
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I don’t think so. If and when the Volt is released, I believe consumer response will be overwhelming, and the Volt could be profitable to GM in as little as 4 years after release.
Couple that with what Ford has just said about the prices of electric drive falling much faster than they had thought, and the need for electric hybrids.
After gas prices spiked last summer, and with the economic chaos that has followed, I believe there are many, many people that would love to get off of oil if they had the chance. When people start hearing someone at work say they only go to the gas station once every 3 or 4 months, the light bulb above their head will go on, and things will happen much faster than anyone is predicting.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:49 am)Yeah, Fritz is the man. He can save the company. He’s not like that bad Wagoner guy. Throw out that bum. All change is good, all the time, no matter what. And if Fritz can’t do the job, whatever the job might be, we’ll just throw him out. Change it all up again and again. Things are just so bad that any change will be better than what we have today. The current administration in Washington is exactly right. All change is good for us. Better living through constant change. Yeah, that’ll fix everything.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:49 am)“Common sense and intelligence will prevail, here!” –Man, I sure hope so!!!
Regarding Hummer…Either they can sell it, or they can’t. Get on with it already. I’m thinking they likely can’t sell it and are embarassed to admit it. GM could look at it this way…The temporary shame of killing Hummer can be very much overshadowed by the good image of bringing affordable, mass- produced electric vehicles to market. By terminating Hummer, this would be a public affirmation of GM finally moving on to a new world of greener transportation. Do the right thing.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (7:51 am)If the objective of the Government Task Force is to have GM survive for the long term, they can’t “eat their seed corn”. They have to support development of new, more advanced, products. Even though those products won’t make money for a few years.
Many automotive experts don’t think that the Volt technology is viable even in the long term, however. The Task Force may believe these experts more than they believe GM. GM doesn’t seem to have a “plan B” for “green” cars which leaves the Task Force with little room to maneuver. If they kill Volt than GM has no long term potential. If they don’t kill Volt than GM probably has no long term potential. The government claims that they don’t want to be in the car business and making management decisions on whether Volt will be a success or not should be outside their jurisdiction.
If the restructuring creates a GM that is viable in the semi-near term and it also has the Volt project, the restructuring should be approved. If it is impossible to create a GM that is viable in the semi-near term unless the Volt is canceled, than the Volt is gone. I’m inclined to think that the Volt is such a small part of the current financial picture that it will continue as long as there is a GM.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:03 am)When it comes to parallel hybrids, I would say Toyota has the edge in practical terms. After all, they’ve been perfecting it for the last 12 years.
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If nothing else, this recent move in the loan/bailout situation should be that people should make an effort to be clear about hybrid information.
Toyota’s hybrids are *NOT* the parallel type.
There’s a profound difference between Insight (which is a parallel hybrid) and Prius (which is not).
One has just a single small (10 to 15 kW) electric motor, which is bonded directly to the engine and they always spin together.
The other has two electric motors, both much larger (around 30 to 65 kW) and each has the ability to operate independently. The system also has the ability to propel the vehicle with the engine motionless.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:08 am)In the 857 page document for the 2011 model-year CAFE requirements, a PARALLEL hybrid (aka “ASSIST”) is defined as follows:
Integrated Starter Generator (ISG)
The next hybrid technology that is considered is the Integrated Starter Generator (ISG) technology. There are 2 types of integrated starter generator hybrids that are considered: the belt mounted type and the crank mounted type.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:10 am)In the 857 page document for the 2011 model-year CAFE requirements, a SERIES-PARALLEL hybrid (aka “FULL”) is defined as follows:
Power Split Hybrid
The Power Split hybrid (PSHEV) is described as a full or a strong hybrid since it has the ability to move the vehicle on electric power only. It replaces the vehicle’s transmission with a single planetary gear and a motor/generator. A second, more powerful motor/generator is directly connected to the vehicle’s final drive. The planetary gear splits the engine’s torque between the first motor/generator and the final drive. The first motor/generator uses power from the engine to either charge the battery or supply power to the wheels. The speed of the first motor/generator determines the relative speed of the engine to the wheels. In this way, the planetary gear allows the engine to operate independently of vehicle speed, much like a CVT. The Toyota Prius and the Ford Hybrid Escape are two examples of power split hybrid vehicles.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:12 am)It’s all about the batteries. Unfortunately, the latest “between the lines” battery news from GM and Aptera hasn’t been good.
1. The volt’s AER is going to be less than 40 miles under anything less than perfect conditions.
2. Aptera has apparently increased the battery size (from 10-13 kwh to 17-22 kwh) with no increase in range.
Contrast this with Honda and Toyota fighting over a $20,000 “conventional” hybrid price point and it looks like electric drive viability (profitability) may still be a long way off.
http://auto.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090326.whAutoBuzz0326/GAStory/specialGlobeAuto/home
http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/hot_lists/car_shopping/latest_news_reviews/2010_aptera_2e_first_drive_review+t-behind_the_wheel_of_the_beast+page-2.html
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:15 am)THE PRESIDENT JUST KILLED THE VOLT!!!
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:16 am)In the 857 page document for the 2011 model-year CAFE requirements, a PLUG-IN hybrid is defined as follows:
Plug-In Hybrid
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) are very similar to other strong hybrid electric vehicles, but with significant functional differences. The key distinguishing feature is the ability to charge the battery pack from an outside source of electricity (usually the electric grid). A PHEV would have a larger battery pack with greater energy capacity, and an ability to be discharged further (referred to as “depth of discharge”). No major manufacturer currently has a PHEV in production, although both GM and Toyota have publicly announced that they will launch plug-in hybrids in limited volumes by 2010.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:25 am)In the 857 page document for the 2011 model-year CAFE requirements, a TWO-MODE hybrid is defined as follows:
2-Mode Hybrid
The 2-mode hybrid (2MHEV) is another strong hybrid system that has all-electric drive capability. The 2MHEV uses an adaptation of a conventional stepped-ratio automatic transmission by replacing some of the transmission clutches with two electric motors, which makes the transmission act like a CVT. Like the Power Split hybrid, these motors control the ratio of engine speed to vehicle speed. But unlike the Power Split system, clutches allow the motors to be bypassed, which improves both the transmission’s torque capacity and efficiency for improved fuel economy at highway speeds. This type of system is used in the Chevy Tahoe Hybrid.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:30 am)IMHO #23 Tim’s screed contributes nothing useful to the debate.
While I don’t pretend to understand all of the ramifications, I’m in favor of the government holding the domestic auto industry’s feet to the fire if it wants taxpayer money to see it through these hard times. At the same time, I do not put all the blame for the present situation on the industry: they built the gas guzzlers, and the American public bought ‘em.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:31 am)Most of us recognize the importance of the Volt technology to GM. That is not to say that a “bean counter” (my apologies to all you accountants out there) will not make a “business” decision to cut the program or try to eliminate it because of future cost. When it comes to numbers, some people in and out of the government have no sense at all. They get mesmerized buy the numbers and that is all the see and understand.
My “gut” feeling is that the Volt will survive, but will be released in late spring or early summer of 2011. I think government bungling will delay the introduction simply because they will ask that all work stop on future vehicles while they run the “numbers” without excluding the Volt from the stoppage. It may even be as much as a year late. I have all the confidence in the world in the ability of our government bureaucracy to screw things up. But, we can always hope someone is smart enough to support the Volt program and to insure GM continues working on it as they evaluate the other lines. It is a sad day for GM when they have to submit to governmental control like they may be undergoing.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:33 am)IS NO ONE LISTENING? OBAMA JUST DICTATED THAT THE VOLT IS GONE
Tag
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:36 am)Tag,
It’s pretty hard to miss OBAMA JUST DICTATED THAT THE VOLT IS GONE. Please give a reference or link!
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:37 am)#6 Joe
“GM is at least one generation behind Toyota on advanced, “green” powertrain development.”
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That is a statement from someone who does not understand the technology and are only repeating what he has heard or read all of his life from the media and people around him. Another case of just repeat what everyone else is saying without taking the time and trouble to investigate the matter himself. Typical American BS.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:37 am)The larger a firm is, the more impossible it is for it to “turn on a dime”.
The less overhead a firm has, the more likely it is able to produce new products just in time. The more diversified a firm is, the more likely that there will be conflicts of interest. The more debt a firm has, the more likely that it becomes “anchored” in the past with regard to fiduciary duties to service that debt.
America and the World must quickly change over to green electric motoring as soon as possible.
When I close a contract several times a month to teach L-1 diagnostics in auto repair shops, I happen to find myself saying more often, “I can do that”, with regards to both what types of content the owner/management wants me to cover over longer periods of time and trips, as well as, how long the shop owner needs to pay me for my services. (For every dollar spent on my time, my Seminars reveal 9 dollars in properly-diagnosed and highest-service-priority services on live repair orders which generally would not be otherwise absolutely-conclusively reliable.)
It is just going to take an outside major force of practicality to extricate the entire automotive industry out of the Internal Combustion quagmire. And,
the physical as well as the economic environments select those to survive whom are most efficient in the use of it. GM just needs to be pulled forward with our help in the form of a very practical approach from the outside of the firm.
President Obama has the exceptional gift of insight and common sense to do that where no-one else has been able.
Drastic times call for drastic measures, measures that make the best common sense.
Dan Petit Austin TX
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:38 am)#24 statik Says: Certainly the Volt is no help to GM over the next 5-10 years in that regard…
———————-
#28 Dave G said: I don’t think so. If and when the Volt is released, I believe consumer response will be overwhelming, and the Volt could be profitable to GM in as little as 4 years after release.
Couple that with what Ford has just said about the prices of electric drive falling much faster than they had thought, and the need for electric hybrids.
After gas prices spiked last summer, and with the economic chaos that has followed, I believe there are many, many people that would love to get off of oil if they had the chance. When people start hearing someone at work say they only go to the gas station once every 3 or 4 months, the light bulb above their head will go on, and things will happen much faster than anyone is predicting.
================
Think we are on same side of coin again Dave. I said no help for 5-10 years….you said a very optimistic 4 years after release.
Even under your scenario, the Volt for all intents and purposes is released in 2011…thats 2 years away + 4 years of production = 6 years (within my range).
In my world, the Volt’s road to ‘potential’ profitability goes like this:
GM estimates between 1 and 2 billion up front investment. I figure even with the most optimistic of margins GM has to sell 500,000 Volts to break even (especially considering the first couple hundred thousand will be sold at less than cost). GM by their own words has first year production at 10,000…then up to 60,000 for years 2 and 3 (which is the capacity of the Hamm line), maybe then they have working capital to open another line (or a alt line in Europe)…which is even more development money to recoup.
Most optimistic scenario in my opinion:
2009: 0 units
2010: 50 units (big maybe)
2011: 10,000 units (big maybe)
2012: 60,000 units
2013: 60,000 units
2014: 60,000 units
2015 100,000 units
2016 100,000 units
2017 100,000 units (total production hits 500,000)
2018 GM maybe makes dollar number 1 on the Volt
Personally, I don’t think gen 1 can make money…at all, ever. I don’t think GM even had designs on it making money, but rather being a springboard to other future products (and green washing). Maybe gen 2 (and alternative products) can, if GM survives.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:38 am). . . and what is propser?
Is that like liev logn adn propser?
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:38 am)Thomc@42
It was just on the news- live.
Tag
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:41 am)Tag,
>> It was just on the news – live.
What broadcast network?
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:43 am)#36 Tagamet,
I figured that was a joke. Are you serious?
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:45 am)ThomC
Thanks for the confidence.
Tag
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:45 am)@26 Eco
Don’t join the religion of data (or surveys for that matter, they are also data). Data can be manipulated any way someone wants it to be. Personally, I trust my own experiences and “data-collection” vs. a lot of the published garbage.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:50 am)If GM sells the Hummer to a middle eastern company, does that mean they will be producing the H2’s for the Army?
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:52 am)#41.Tagamet
Over reacting a little? Any facts to support this? No.
BTW, GM doesn’t survived = NO VOLT, by making sure GM has a remote chance to survive the Obama administration is actually giving it a chance.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:54 am)Just part of Obamas plan to destroy the United States, one company at a time!
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:55 am)CEO Fritz Henderson has a live telecast on the “U.S. Treasury’s decisions on aid to the auto industry” in like….5 mins
Watch it here…now:
http://gmtv.feedroom.com/?fr_story=9e40d5175d757a342d3c22d827c272010a1fa9a8
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Mar 31st, 2009 (8:58 am)I guess an Orson “Tag” Welles moment just doesn’t go as far in the digital age.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:01 am)Right On Tim!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“As the White House has said, they do not intend to run a car company, much less make product decisions.” HA HA HA HA HA… that’s a good one!
This administration is EXACTLY like the last administration because what they SAY and what they DO are usually polar opposites.
Say: “We must be fiscally responsible and tighten our belts”
Do: Biggest spending bill in the nation’s history all on borrowed/created debt. Keynes would be so proud!
Say: “We will have complete transparency”
Do: Not giving congress time to read bills before voting. Those who voted Aye on any bill they did not read are Traitors!
Say: “We will put all spending bills on the internet 7 days before the vote.”
Do: Place propaganda on a website with no real substance.
Say: “We will get out of Iraq”
Do: Troops there indefinitely and send MORE troops to Afghanistan
Say: “No more Earmarks & Pork… ever!”
Do: PorkZilla and Porkzilla II, (the sequel) are almost ALL earmarks.
http://www.benjaminbradley.com/politics/obama-lies-about-earmarks-in-stimulus-bill/
Say: “We don’t want to run the auto industry”
Do: Appoint a committee to “oversee” the auto industry and fire GM’s CEO because it’s politically good to be seen as “doing something” other than just digging a huge debt hole.
Maybe these Statists should have just obeyed their OATH to the Constitution and let Bankruptcy work instead of giving $Billions in taxpayer debt (Fiat “money” created out of thin air) to for-profit companies all FOR NOTHING?
Only those fools who still watch the Chairman’s propaganda arm, CNBC still have faith and hope. It won’t be long before the American people get tired of the lies, doublespeak and wake up to the Chairman’s/banker’s hidden socialist agenda. Central planning NEVER works! (Just ask the Soviets)
Welcome to the USSA!
“A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine.” -Thomas Jefferson
“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” — Thomas Jefferson
“From my cold, dead hands” — Charlton Heston
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:02 am)Fritz looks nervous:
His first announcement is to copy Hyundai and give ‘job pertection’ on new cars.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:03 am)#45 statik,
Again, I believe most people (including GM) are underestimating the demand for the Volt. Also, most of the development cost of other Voltec vehicle types (Converj, Orlando, etc.) will be covered by the initial Volt development.
In addition, I don’t really believe in a distinct Volt version 2 as such, but probably more of a continuous improvement each year. For example, GM has already said the 2012 Volt, which will release toward the end of 2011, will have over a dozen design changes to improve cost and performance, and that was a year ago. So again, most of the initial Volt development cost will carry forward with minor changes each year.
So my most optimistic scenario, assuming GM can keep up with demand, and including other Voltec cars like Converj, Orlando, etc, would be:
2009: 0 units
2010: 1000 units
2011: 10,000 units
2012: 60,000 units
2013: 100,000 units
2014: 150,000 units
2015: 220,000 units
2016: 300,000 units
2017: 450,000 units
2018: 600,000 units
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:04 am)‘job protection’ even, lol
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:05 am)TAG.. April fool’s day is tomorrow.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:07 am)I know I didn’t imagine the 5 minutes they spent on this on Fox (yes, Fox) News.
Time will tell, but I would NOT kid about something like this. If/when they retract – I’ll retract it.
Tag
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:08 am)@59 Dave G
I think the Orlando was actually cancelled. Let me see if i can find a link on it.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:10 am)#61 k-dawg said:
TAG.. April fool’s day is tomorrow.
=====================
Tag is just such a pessimist, thats all it is…that is what he is know for.
(=
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:18 am)If Statik is not on top of this, I must obviously be wrong (or he just got scooped – he’s such a Pauliana)
Tag
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:20 am)Side note:
Chrysler couldn’t pay wages today in Canada. Canada had to send them a emergency 250 million advance off a unapproved loan, lol (that was tenatively up to 1 billion).
/so Chrysler is in serious need of cash…like now
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:22 am)I saw the same report on Fox news that Tag reffered to. President Obama’s auto task force say’s the Volt is to be killed.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:25 am)#65 Tag said:
If Statik is not on top of this, I must obviously be wrong (or he just got scooped – he’s such a Pauliana)
Tag
==================================
I got/have nothing on it, haven’t heard anything…I though at first maybe you were joking. I’m not a big fan of FOX news. I just didn’t want to shoot you down just out of skepticism.
I’m watching Fritz shoot his trap off now, so I figured I’d just sit back and listen. I figure if something that big is true, he will say something.
He is taking Q&A now…haven’t heard anything.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:25 am)All this can be somewhat depressing, except for the fact that the gov’t will not allow GM to fail, that is clear in all the rhetoric.
Couple that with the fact that GM is currently already building some of the best vehicles on the road, according to MANY opinions, media and private, maybe the new GM will be something others will have to respect.
I do not think for a second that the imports really want to see GM revitalized in that way. Its one thing to battle them while they had a ball and chain on their ankles, its quite another if GM shows up to the fight with a chip on their shoulder.
Right now, while the chain is being sawed from the ankle, they are developing quite a chip. Things could get very interesting in the next few years.
I predict the spin on what is taking place here, right now, will get VERY interesting. I think the word AMERICAN will star heavily in the approach that is taken to convince people that buying GM cars matters. Hopefully the GM marketing department will put the gloves on. No matter how Toyota and Honda try to wrap themselves in red, white, and blue, I think the writing is on the wall. Think about it.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:27 am)#67 benion2 said:
I saw the same report on Fox news that Tag reffered to. President Obama’s auto task force say’s the Volt is to be killed
=======================
I was thinking it was based on something like this.
Sounds like Fox news is jumping the shark and connecting the PTF to Obama and the executive themselves…and maybe Tag wasn’t reading the forums this morning and naturally freaked out.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:29 am)Q: How are you (Fritz) different than Wagoner:
A: Blah, blah, blah…I speak portuguese, blah, blah, blah
(unintentional comedy gold)
(I still like Fritz…just thought that was amusing)
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:32 am)Thanks benion2. Good reality (as I know it) check.
I watched Fritz too, statik until the Blah blah got to be too much.
Time will tell, but the thrust is “should the govt dictate which cars (including the Volt) will get built.
Tag
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:32 am)The American Auto Industry is doomed because Obama doesn’t get it. He wants to wave his mighty hand and dictate to all Americans to buy ONLY hybrids and/or high-mileage cars.
You can’t COMMAND a buyer to like only one type of vehicle. Obama believes Americans only want high-mileage cars. BS. If that were true, people would be lining up for Aveos, Cobalts and Malibus. HA!
Car buyers shop on emotions. Every reader of this blog who signed up for the wait list is VERY emotional about America being energy independant. From what I’ve read, that is far stronger than the opinions about PRICE which now seems to be second now that we are in a recession. Last year, STYLING was more important when they changed the look away from the original concept car. (Again, an emotional response!)
Car buyers want a vehicle that has STYLING, PERFORMANCE, RELIABILITY, COMFORT, GIZMOS, and now GAS MILEAGE that is far better than anything else in a specific price range.
Would any of you turn down a Corvette ZR-1 if it were $29,995.00 ??????
When Obamas “Task Force” gets in there and starts deciding which vehicles and brands to axe, you can be sure it will be the wrong choices for the wrong reasons.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:33 am)Wow, he is super nervous…he has picked up his water glass at least 3-4 times and then not taken a drink and just turned around and sat it back down again.
/dude needs a podium or something
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:38 am)#70 statik said:
Sounds like Fox news is jumping the shark …
====================================
Oh, yes … FoxNews is clearly in its death spiral. (The enemies of a fair and balanced media can only “HOPE” for “CHANGE.”)
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:46 am)The gov report contained statements that could be (wrongly?) interpreted to mean that GM should cancel the Volt….
from http://detnews.com/article/20090330/AUTO01/903300425/Government++Volt+can+t+save+GM
The Chevrolet Volt will not save General Motors Corp., the U.S. government said Monday in its Viability Summary of GM.
“While the Volt holds promise, it will likely be too expensive to be commercially successful in the short-term,” the report said.
The electric car “is currently projected to be much more expensive than its gasoline-fueled peers and will likely need substantial reductions in manufacturing cost in order to become commercially viable.”
The government audit of GM’s restructuring plan suggested the car maker had invested too much time developing the Volt to leap frog Toyota Motor Corp.’s lead in green technologies. Instead of focusing on a car that will not produce a commercial winner out of the gates, GM should focus on producing better smaller cars.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:47 am)FOX business just got their question Tag:
They asked how much money GM needs now from the interm financing for ‘working capital’, and how much will they need in the future (post the 60 days term).
Fritz broke out a little salsa move and they moved on.
…no Volt specific question
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Mar 31st, 2009 (9:48 am)Here is my Question ….
Why was GM’s CEO fired, but Bankers use our TAX money to pay themselves bonuses, with no one getting fired? After all GM made a lot of mistakes, but the problem was intensified by the Bankers.
Question 2 How Many GM Bond Holders are Bankers, that are unwilling to renegotiate.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:01 am)#73 CorvetteGuy Says: Would any of you turn down a Corvette ZR-1 if it were $29,995.00 ??????
————————————————————————————–
Yes, I would turn down a ZR-1 even if the going price was $30K. I need more room for people and cargo, and I don’t want a car that gets 15 MPG.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:05 am)#78 KUD Says: Here is my Question ….
Why was GM’s CEO fired, but Bankers use our TAX money to pay themselves bonuses, with no one getting fired? After all GM made a lot of mistakes, but the problem was intensified by the Bankers.
————————————————————————————–
In this video segment, starting at 2:40
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/business/2009/03/30/dcl.romans.gm.cnn
“Well, AIG Ed Liddy, it’s CEO was installed by the Treasury department. Freddie Mac and Fannie May, their CEOs and their management structure installed by the government. Citigroup, you’ll recall, Vikram Pandit is still it’s CEO, but all but 2 of its board members have been told to go, and will be replaced at the behest of the United States government.
So there is the sort of populist feeling like:
‘wait a second, the blue collar auto industry gets this tough love from the administration, but what about the banks – are they just beholden to the banks?’
Well the banks will tell you there have been a lot of management changes and there are a lot of directives coming down as well. So there hasn’t been a big bank CEO who has been replaced by president Obama, no. But there have been a lot of moves that have been happening none the less. Any maybe we will still see a bank CEO replaced, we don’t know.”
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:06 am)#78 KUD – “Why was GM’s CEO fired, but Bankers use our TAX money to pay themselves bonuses, with no one getting fired?”
Two part Q:
Q1: Why was Wagoner fired?
A1: Cause he was CEO for nine years and lost market share every year but was always claiming next year would be better. Not a hard decision.
Q2: Why the disparate treatment for manufacturers and bankers?
A2: Very good question. Note the vituperative posts on this board directed towards the UAW buy not the bankers. Go figure. Maybe it’s just easier to kick the deck hands than take on the captain. He/she is, after all, The Captain!
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:09 am)#78 KUD Says: Question 2 How Many GM Bond Holders are Bankers, that are unwilling to renegotiate.
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Not sure, but you can bet the bondholders are wealthy, so news outlets like the Wall Street Journal and Fox News will try to distract the issue away from the bondholders by bashing the UAW.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:11 am)I didn’t see anything inspiring from Fritz. It doesn’t even sound (look) like he wants the reins. When given an opportunity to distinguish his “new leadership” he basically said he and Rick have been attached at the hip for 25 years.
Friggin’ great.
Sounds like S.O.S. to me. (either S.O.S. works here)
P.S. How sad is it when the cornerstone of the plan is “we’ll cover your payments for a few months if you lose your job? *Good grief*.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:12 am)#81 DonC Says: Note the vituperative posts on this board directed towards the UAW but not the bankers. Go figure. Maybe it’s just easier to kick the deck hands than take on the captain. He/she is, after all, The Captain!
————————————————————————————–
Or in this case, they hold the deed to your house.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:17 am)#83 carcus1 Says: I didn’t see anything inspiring from Fritz. It doesn’t even sound (look) like he wants the reins.
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I actually got the opposite impression. Fritz seems like zero BS, although you do have to know corperate-speak to understand what he is saying. For many questions, his answers were essentially “We don’t know” or “I’m not allowed to tell you that”.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:17 am)Rick is the scapegoat, Fritz is the sacrificial lamb. I watched part of his press conference where he dutifully laid out his plan for a plan. It sounded a lot like too little too late with him having to check if this agreement or that action was enough. He had to pretend he is without a clue. Did you see his left arm drop when one of the strings broke.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:22 am)#85 Dave G.
“Fritz seems like zero BS, although you do have to know corperate-speak to understand what he is saying. For many questions, his answers were essentially “We don’t know” or “I’m not allowed to tell you that”.”
______________________________________________________
That’s rich.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:22 am)KUD (#78)
This just points to whom both Obama and Bush REALLY work for and it’s NOT “We, the People”.
We will NEVER have a sound economy, real wealth, or prosper as long as the unFed exists and we follow that fag, Keynes communist central planning voodoo economics where gov’t can buy anyone they want by inflating and debasing the currency causing everyone else misery.
The Keynesian model of fiat currency and Statist central planning only works as long as the people and Gov’t borrows, spends and runs up debt. Now we’re out of credit and increasing central planning and spending because politicians have NO self-control and are only limited to a sound fiscal policy by a gold standard where they can NOT print debt instruments (counterfeiting) to buy votes.
What happens to us when the $Dollar collapses?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
It’s the “golden” rule… those who print the fiat currency, make the rules. Neither Congress, nor the Chairman have any REAL power as long as the Fed controls the money supply. You can’t fix you addiction with MORE of what you are addicted to!
It’s about time we Audit the FED:
Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009 (H.R. 1207)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odBkHyHYRuE
We fiddle for the Volt while our currency, our freedom and our nation sinks beneath the waves. FOOLS!
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:25 am)Lyle: I hope you keep Bob Lutz’ email address as I would like to hear his opinions as things progress.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:31 am)Bottom line is these guys can say whatever they want, but if the company is not around in a year, the Volt isn’t either. Hearing them talk about “common sense and intelligence prevailing” is laughable coming from these guys and what they did to the company.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:40 am)Phucks news -gimme a break!
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:40 am)Innas and NOAX to Show Hydraulic Series Hybrid Drivetrain at Hannover Messe
http://www.greencarcongress.com/
If GM is broken up into separate companies in a bankruptcy, the E-REVs will STILL survive and have a BETTER chance of becoming a success without all the GM baggage. The cars many not say “Volt” on the nameplate, but is THAT what’s really important?
However, if a product can only exist because of a consumer environment produced via central planning, what happens when administrations change and therefore so does public policy? The market must WANT the product at the price point offered for it to have long-term viability.
Ideology (propaganda) vs. Ideas, free market competition innovation & growth
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Mar 31st, 2009 (10:48 am)Americans are still buying massive Hummers and Suburbans and Escalades like cold hotcakes. Why? Because they don’t look so obese next to and in them. I live in a new urbanist development where the full size SUVs visually dominate the houses (thanks to good house architecture and siting) which makes the the porky full size SUVs look as ridiculous as they really are, since they are rarely or never used to haul much or tow anything and usually have only a driver and maybe one passenger.
How did automakers get oversized SUVs that use 1940’s technology to be so profitable (= charge more than it costs to make them)? Marketing. So I look to proper marketing as the solution to move to electric drive and get profits from it. There’s a place in some residential driveways for small pickup trucks and small SUVs (mostly for folks in the countryside – dirt roads more than a mile long with winter weather) – they can use electric drive, too. I’m surprised no one has converted a Ford Escape hybrid small SUV into a pickup truck yet. Big commercial vehicle vehicles are just that – things that come with commercial licenses. Folks that truly need them are in business and have them as company vehicles. Think heavy duty diesel, for efficiency and proper torque and power.
Time for a general improved diet, both for ourselves and our automobiles, for health and improved quality of life which, by the way, saves us money, too.
Instead of 65k on an old technology monster land bruiser (yes, some full size SUVs really cost that) that uses it’s full capabilities less than 1% of the time, why not spend 65k on white hot, cutting edge technology instead? Once you feel the torque and hear the turbine like whine of electric drive, you won’t go back to herky, jerky pregnant pause at the start, no power at the bottom and flat at the top of each gear pure gassers. If you want to go off roading properly, I recommend one of the several very high performance, low cost (= gasser price up front, but lower fuel, operating and maintenance costs after the purchase) off road electric motorcycles now available.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:05 am)It’s hard to explain why that task force made so many bizarre claims. The idea that GM is “one generation behind” in terms of hybrids
is rather pointless. GM has plenty of hybrids and those are actually leading the segment, not following. GM doesn’t have a money-loser like the Prius, but if your focus is on GM’s finances, why would you worry about that? Did that team actually know that GM has a hybrid powertain available? I certainly don’t see a lot of other hybrids on the market and a lot of those companies are doing quite well. The insanity of Obama is that he’s trying to push the nutty idea that Gm can prosper by building small, low-profit vehicles. And not build many of them. He wants high tech but then claims the highest tech car on the planet won’t work. Someone fix Obama’s teleprompter again. He’s talking without a script, and we all know what happens
next. He’ll probably accidentally declare war on some country.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:13 am)IM(professional)O Fritz looked like a eunuch puppet. Hmmm, or puppet eunuch….
Hold on,
Tag
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:19 am)Blah Blah Blah….
Yak Yak Yak…
Just build my Volt Dangit!!!
Chap whatever or Nationally owned, I don’t give a shlt. I just want my EV/EREV.
No Power Windows
No Power Adjust Seats
No Power Side view mirrors
No Power Sunroof (Actually No Sunroof at all)
No Power Door Locks
No Power Trunk lock
No Radio (Remember that fiasco? – Get an iPod)
No Heated Seats
No OnStar!!!
Make the garbage I listed, but another mans treasure, an “Upgrade” for those who want these creature comforts.
Standard Features:
AC
Heater
Defogger Front/Rear
The ICEAge is over, Embrace the VoltAge.
I’ll take my Volt with No Generator, No ICE, ShAkEn not StirreD…
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:23 am)They must be having a huge party at Toyota (obvious segue for John the Worshiper).
Be well,
Tag
Let’s just get the Volt in production…..?
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:26 am)Tagamet — Did you not take those meds you were sending to statik? LOL
I think you should read the PTF report for yourself. The report was essentially a justification of why the GM plan failed to prove viability. There were several sections, including one about CAFE standards. In that section the point was made that GM had fallen behind on hybrid technology and that the Volt, while promising, would not be commercially viable in the short run.
This seemed right on to me. GM has fallen short on hybrids and the Volt, while a terrific technology, will sell at too high a price and at too small a volume initially to make an appreciable impact on either its bottom line or on oil demand. However, like Lutz says, unless you have generation one you don’t ever get to generation two.
But I saw a lot of comments about “taking aim at the Volt” and so forth that I didn’t see. But you can decide for yourself. I posted the link to the report in the last thread. I think in this case reading the original document is better than the alternative of relying on other people’s interpretation of the document.
Be well.
PS: I’m loving the “John the Worshiper” moniker. LOL
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:27 am)They must be having a huge party at Toyota
________________________
With an outcome that results in a cost-competitive Volt, u betcha!
The want all along was a real competitor, something “nicely under $30,000” that would help quickly propel us away from dirty guzzlers. The 40/40 Volt simple didn’t meet that objective. A new more competitive configuration would… which is what has been asked for on behalf of the tax payers.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:30 am)I’m loving the “John the Worshiper” moniker. LOL
______________________
The Prius chatters have called my the high “Priust”, preaching about how things will be once we finally move beyond the priustoric times.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:32 am)EV Owner, #93- lol
carcus 1 #35 -”2. Aptera has apparently increased the battery size (from 10-13 kwh to 17-22 kwh) with no increase in range.” this may or may not be bad news, apart from up-front cost. Larger pack Probably extends battery longevity a couple or three times, a la gm-volt ’s strategy for extended life.Slender Aptera still speeding along at 10mi/kwh………..?
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:50 am)#73 CorvetteGuy
“The American Auto Industry is doomed because Obama doesn’t get it. He wants to wave his mighty hand and dictate to all Americans to buy ONLY hybrids and/or high-mileage cars.”
Well there’s a solution to that. You can be a car company and make WHATEVER cars you like. You can hire/fire who you want and pay people what you want. All you have to do is support yourself and not take handouts from the the government to survive. Its called running a self sustainable and profitable business plan!
Unfortunately when you take money from someone else, they now have a say in your business whether you like it or not.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:51 am)#73 Corvette Guy says “Would any of you turn down a Corvette ZR-1 if it were $29,995.00 ?”
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Please reserve one for me
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:53 am)Boy, you guys are all over the place today. Kinda glad I am keeping out of the fray to some extent. Go get ‘em.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:54 am)GM doesn’t have a money-loser like the Prius
______________________
Sadly, they have for many years. It’s called Saturn. That entire brand always struggled to turn profit from the product itself and depended heavily upon financing to make up the difference… which is why with the credit collapse they want to discontinue that brand.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:54 am)@Corvette Guy 73
“Would any of you turn down a Corvette ZR-1 if it were $29,995.00 ?”
YES!
But I would like the last Camaro (V8 Model) that rolls off the line when they go under. Where’s that waiting list?
=oP
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Mar 31st, 2009 (11:58 am)#24 statik said
Again, it doesn’t matter what their (PTFoA) opinion is on the Volt. They are doing their job, they are just going to file a report. If GM gets the bondholders/UAW to capitulate, or if the gov’t pushes them through a GSB…the will of the executive will certainly keep the Volt program alive (imo).
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With greatest respect, I think your forecast may lack sufficient detail on the time line. Yes, if Obama wants the Volt, it will continue to exist in the long term. But no, because Obama only talks about GM in moments of crisis [moments of TV
].
So for the next 60 days Fritz is going to do all he can to satisfy the viability monitors. He is going to follow their “suggestions” in their report as best he can. While the “viabiliters” view of the Volt long term is unknown, in the short term they certainly see Volt as unproductive. So Fritz is going to make no new commitments to Volt in this time period. That is, GM will build some prototypes and otherwise go into a holding period (imo).
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:00 pm)
Mar 31st, 2009 (12:10 pm)Well I think it’s all been said here, probably about 1000 times. I guess we just have to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Best of luck to all of us. It looks like we’re gonna need it.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:16 pm)Tag
NO ONE IS LISTENING
Be Well.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:20 pm)#107 RB said:
With greatest respect, I think your forecast may lack sufficient detail on the time line. Yes, if Obama wants the Volt, it will continue to exist in the long term. But no, because Obama only talks about GM in moments of crisis [moments of TV ].
So for the next 60 days Fritz is going to do all he can to satisfy the viability monitors. He is going to follow their “suggestions” in their report as best he can. While the “viabiliters” view of the Volt long term is unknown, in the short term they certainly see Volt as unproductive. So Fritz is going to make no new commitments to Volt in this time period. That is, GM will build some prototypes and otherwise go into a holding period (imo).
==========
I think I understand what you are saying here. And yes, I didn’t put any timeline in there.
I also agree that Fritz will likely make no new commitments to the Volt in the next 60 days…in fact I am of the opinion that GM has made no commitments since november, in fact all they have done is cancelled commitments…and then tried to give the impression something is still going on by keeping busy, ‘testing’ and endlessly repeating that it is on schedule. (Although the looming deadline makes them seem more and more comical with each day)
I assume from the PTFoA’s report on the Volt, that it will be certainly be put on the table for termination by Fritz at the government’s discretion in the next couple weeks (along with anything else that would secure the government’s backing)…and at that point the PTF (knowing Obama’s position on EVs) would confer back with the executive on the fate of the project.
To be fair, Obama could still back away from the Volt and use the economy and the state of GM as a excuse, just as easy as he did for…several other projects.
/political will is like building on shifting stand
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:20 pm)#100 john1710a says “The Prius chatters have called my the high “Priust”, preaching about how things will be once we finally move beyond the priustoric times.”
That one is even better! Very funny. Was the “Priust” invited to the Detroit unveiling?
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:22 pm)#96 CaptJackSparrow Says:
No Power Windows
No Power Adjust Seats
No Power Side view mirrors
No Power Sunroof (Actually No Sunroof at all)
No Power Door Locks
No Power Trunk lock
No Radio (Remember that fiasco? – Get an iPod)
No Heated Seats
No OnStar!!!
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For each of these features, there has to be a bang for buck analysis to see if leaving it out saves any money. In other words, if you offer something as an option, you have to support that as an option, which costs money. Also, if you leave out some of these options, like power windows, then you have to design another alternative. So let’s look at each of these features with this in mind:
• Power Windows – This should be standard. A manual window opener probably wouldn’t save that much money, and it would require a whole new door panel design.
• Power Adjust Seats – Make this an option.
• Power Side view mirrors – Make it standard. You need to be able to adjust these somehow, and aerodynamics dictates a hard mount mirror enclosure.
• Power Sunroof – Any sunroof should be an option.
• Power Door Locks – I suspect it’s more toruble than its worth to design in a manual door lock option.
• Power Trunk lock – Same as power door locks.
• Radio – An AM radio is required by law. That’s still how emergiency alerts are broadcast. A basic radio/CD player is pretty cheap these days. The Bose energy saving version for the Volt may be overkill for standard equiptment.
• Heated Seats – This could actually save money in the Volt by allowing a smaller electric heater unit.
• OnStar!!! – Optional equiptment.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:26 pm)DonC
If I take the meds, I can’t READ the report!
jeffhre
I think we’ll all be listening when the Pres completes the plan by hiking gas taxes to MAKE the roller skates the only game in town.
Be well too,
Tag
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:32 pm)#111 statik (and RB) says “To be fair, Obama could still back away from the Volt and use the economy and the state of GM as a excuse, just as easy as he did for…several other projects.”
I don’t know what other projects you’re referring to (Air Marine One, the White House remodel?). In any event, since one of the requirements that the PTF put forth for the Chrylser-Fiat deal is a fuel efficient car manufactured in the US, I’m having a hard time seeing why anyone thinks the PTF, or the President for that matter, would want to cancel the Volt. But that may just be me.
FWIW, Michael Jackson, he head of AutoNation who has always impressed me, has flatly said that the PTF report “completely nailed it”. When I read the report I couldn’t find anything to disagree with. In fact, it seemed like it echoed the position of that economics professor from Maryland who testified at the congressional hearings last November. Essentially the restructuring plan didn’t go far enough and the steps weren’t going to be taken fast enough. In a sense, it was a reflection of Wagoner’s tenure. Sometimes the right direction. But too little too late.
I’ll also go out on a limb and say that anything that anything identified by the PTF as a short term problem is not a problem as far as the members of the PTF are concerned. Obama is not a short term thinker. If he is to be faulted it would be that he ignores the short term when concentrating on the long term. Does it really matter if the Volt will not be a commercial success in the short term? I don’t think so, and I don’t think the members of the PTF think so either.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:32 pm)Oh man, Obama’s folks (and Prius fanatics) have their heads up their butts with the whole cost viability argument. The Volt will be a technologically advanced and unique automobile. It is complete leapfrog over the Prius. It doesn’t have to pay for itself or be cheaper if it has other allure that buyers gravitate to (i.e. fascinating and exciting technology). Car buyers almost NEVER select their car based entirely on cost considerations. Often lost in this discussion is that a Prius also does not pay for itself over a cheaper fuel efficient alternative with a conventional ICE.
People don’t expect a payback when they buy ANYTHING near $30,000. Once you break out of the $20,000 range you are buying based on pure taste and desire. I am at my wits end trying to figure out why people don’t get this. The Volt is viable if people want it and will buy it, whether it has cheaper competition or not.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:38 pm)GM already is fourth or fifth in auto employment even though they are first or second in building vehicles in the world.
If volume return to even a sub par year, their profits will snowball. I expect that their further round of capacity reductions will make the overall future profitability spectacular.
As for Chrysler, I think it is destined to be broken up and the parts absorbed. I just wonder if the government will loan money to Ford and GM to purchase the parts of Chrysler that they would be able to buy at pennies on the dollar if they were to try to duplicate the investment.
And there are attractive factories and facilities much more than vehicles. The Minivans and Jeep are the vehicles, but the I4 capacity and GEMA factories, the phoenix v6 and their new factories along the lines of GEMA, perhaps the RWD drive large car designs based on respected Mercedes designs and well sorted out and improved in the LY, are all worth something to both Ford and GM. As is the Cumin’s new T2B5 truck diesels to get them by the 2011 “interim” CAFE truck standards that they both can’t meet. Since both deferred developing mid size truck diesels, to save money.
In all this discussion of converting debt to equity I have a question.
Will the government ALSO accept something like callable, non cumulative, senior, preferred equity after the debt holder’s debt is converted and extinguished?
The amount of government debt will be a significant portion of the debt/equity relationship, to produce a clean balance sheet.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:38 pm)My question to you is: In two or three years when the movie “Who Killed the Volt Electric Car?” comes out, who will actually get the blame?
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:44 pm)Obama has stated several times (in not so many words) that people are not buying American cars because they are the wrong kind of cars; i.e.; low-mileage gas guzzlers – which is only partially true.
Mercedes, BMW, Lexus are still selling cars, aren’t they?
People are not buying right now because:
a) they are unemployed or under-employed and cannot afford them, or
b) they are afraid that they soon will be unemployed or under employed.
It has little to do with the price of gas. People will still buy Chevy, Ford and Dodge trucks because they NEED them. And they need them at an affordable price. If any one here wants a HYBRID Silverado truck, they are available. But just like the HYBRID Tahoe, Chevrolet loaded them up with too many options and the price is too high.
Obama wants to dictate that all vehicles be HYBRID or Electric. Hey. I’m all for it. But until people can afford them (get banks loaning money again), and people’s perceptions about hybrid reliability changes, these cars and trucks will just sit until the rebates get big enough to offset peoples fears.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:46 pm)#111 statik Says: To be fair, Obama could still back away from the Volt and use the economy and the state of GM as a excuse, just as easy as he did for…several other projects.
/political will is like building on shifting stand
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Obama has been pretty consistent and unwavering when it comes to his core issues:
• Economy
• Energy
• Education
• Health Care
What’s more, Obama has consistently reminded us that these issues are inter-related.
Transcript from Obama’s announcement yesterday:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/30/us/politics/30obama-text.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1
“I am absolutely committed to working with Congress and the auto companies to meet one goal: The United States of America will lead the world in building the next generation of clean cars.”
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:49 pm)@ Dave G 113
• Power Windows – This should be standard. A manual window opener probably wouldn’t save that much money, and it would require a whole new door panel design.
Nope. This adds weight as well as addirional electrical systems and contact points that WILL fail at one point due to use and corrosion of contact points. Most “Roll up” window designs have an axial rotation to to a gear that in turn raises and lowers the window. Adding power adds the DC motor as well as a 5 or 10 to 1 ratio gearhead to amplfy torque. A Power window adds another piece of possible electrical failure. I hace seen switches stick in the “On” or “Flapping” causeing power drain. Again, If it aint there it won’t break. Besides, what is less expensive to fis, a broken handle or a Gearhead motor? If you can’t engineer KISS don’t engineer.
• Power Adjust Seats – Make this an option.
We Concurr. Again, If it aint there it won’t break.
• Power Side view mirrors – Make it standard. You need to be able to adjust these somehow, and aerodynamics dictates a hard mount mirror enclosure.
I can see your point in that so I’m on the edge with this but, Again, If it aint there it won’t break.
• Power Sunroof – Any sunroof should be an option.
We Concurr. Again, If it aint there it won’t break, in this case Leak.
• Power Door Locks – Not sure about this. I suspect it’s more toruble than its worth to design in a manual door lock option.
Quit being Lazy. REAL MEN OPEN DOORS FOR LADIES.
• Power Trunk lock – Same as power door locks.
See response to “Power Windows”. There are many designs that DO NOT use electricity. Using Power locks require electric Solenoids or again maybe some small gearhead motors. Again, If it aint there it won’t break
• Radio – An AM radio is required by law. That’s still how emergiency alerts are broadcast. A basic radio/CD player is pretty cheap these days. The Bose energy saving version for the Volt may be overkill for standard equiptment.
You said it. The Bose thing they spent so much R&D money on is too “Proprietarily OVERKILL!”. Can anyone come up with the cost of this thing? That fiasco was a joke.
• Heated Seats – This could actually save money in the Volt by allowing a smaller electric heater unit.
I recall the arguments on this in giving the “Felling” of warmth as opposed to the heater running. However, in keeping with KISS remember, this is an electrical part that is designed to warm up and we all know that heat is the enemy of electrical lengevity. It also requires additional electronics to monitor it to prevent thermal runaway as well as adjust for thermal “Best Performance” to achieve the heat and will need a switch to turn it on /off. Whether the switch be mechanical or electronic (probaly mech) there is again a possibility of failure. Again, If it aint there it won’t break
• OnStar!!! – Optional equiptment.
We concurr on this.
Most everything will require some sensors on top of them to ensure it’s “Status”.
There’s a lot of reasons to “Have” and there are a lot of reasons to “Not Have”. But in time you will find that too many xtras, no matter how small, will fail and that’s where the bad stigma comes from when people say “knobs keep falling of an blah blah stopped working…”
Again, If it aint there it won’t break
KISS….
Keep
It
Simple
Stupid
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:50 pm)#105 john1701a
Sadly, they have [had a money loser] for many years. It’s called Saturn.
________________________
Saturn is one of those lost opportunties for GM. GM basically stopped investing in Saturn in the mid 1990’s. This was echoed by Saturn engineers who, at the time, only had to physically point at the condition and staffing of their facilities and compared to how much the “truck guys” were getting. Trucks were hugely successful for a period of time, but what GM needed was to maintain some level of small-car capability like they have in Europe, just in case. GM built what most US consumers wanted, but failed on contingency plans.
BTW: Based on the limited benchmarking we did on the first generation Prius, it was a really expensive car to build. I say that Toyota is one generation ahead with hybrids because they have had a full generation to get the cost of the existing technology down to a commercially viable program.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:51 pm)# 109 Noel Park
I think you have summed it up. God help us, especially in (if I remember correctly) our mutual home state of California.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:51 pm)#119 CorvetteGuy Says: People will still buy Chevy, Ford and Dodge trucks because they NEED them.
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I disagree. Most soccer-moms want an SUV because they wouldn’t be caught dead in a minivan or station wagon. Let’s face it, SUVs were a kind a fashion craze.
Yes, there are some people that actually use an SUV or pickup for what it was designed to do, and I don’t fault them. But from what I’ve seen, these people are the exception rather than the rule.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:53 pm)Tag
I think we’re all exhausted from the announcements when each each new one seems like a crisis within an ongoing tempest. Every new announcement seems like the straw that breaks the camels back. But we never stop gaping at, analyzing and commenting on the continuing train wreck!
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:58 pm)@Dave G 124
“Yes, there are some people that actually use an SUV or pickup for what it was designed to do. But from what I’ve seen, these people are the exception rather than the rule.”
Amen to that!!!!
I pass by parks on the weekend where little league plays and soccer and 80% of the cars are big SUV’s and 4Door Crew cab Pickups. The only ones that get into a Sedan are the Grandparents that went to go watch the games. The rest pack the one or two kids into the car and one bag of gear or Stroller in the car. And you need a Tahoe/Expidetion/F150 Crew/Armada for this?
More obsurd is these are recreation leagues which means they live only 5 miles away at the most. Sheeeshh!
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Mar 31st, 2009 (12:59 pm)Ok, ok….hideous error to mention Obama and anything but flawless perfection. I really don’t care one bit about the political scorecard at all. I take it all back…a thousand apologies, I fall on the sword.
Obama or not, my point is political will changes depending on the priorities/morals of the day…and it does so quite often, and therefore it is hard to predict where their ‘head will be’ in the future
When it comes to large corporations the will is always the same…profit, so it is much easier to make educated guesses.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:00 pm)I’ve asked it before. Why can’t GM make an equivalent to the Honda Insight? 4 door, 45MPG, $19k, with Honda quality and reliability? This car is going to be an enormous seller.
Build a car like the Insight and that is the vehicle the would save GM, not a $37k Volt.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:01 pm)
Mar 31st, 2009 (1:04 pm)@Bruce 128
“Why can’t GM make an equivalent to the Honda Insight?”
Because that’s wht GM lacked… “Insight”. As well as Foresight of the market.
He||, their product advertising sucks a$$ too. Not many people even know what the Volt is.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:06 pm)#23, Huzzah!! I hope the Volt survives. But its engineering and design should drive GM forward not career politians looking for the next handout and entitlement to back.
Give me a smelly gas lovin’ truck and sports car than a smelly little car that is no fun to drive. Don;t hate gas/oil. Diss the terrorist countries that produce it and drill for our own! Give Americans a choice. Electric or gas. We should be able to choose what we want not be told.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:08 pm)Is it me or is the edit not working?
Dang, If I don’t get moderated, I can’t edit my lame a$$ typing.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:08 pm)Hmm…
Edit worked in FireFox…….
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:08 pm)Bruce 128
I believe GM can, but it would take several generations of refinement and the GM process is not the best at this type of follow through, plus they’d be shooting for a moving target. The first insight was a brilliant leap of manufacturing which few ever heard of and even fewer bought. Would GM stick with the program if it wasn’t a hit right out of the box? Now that gas prices are lower and big cars are back would GM even try if they had the money to invest? The will is not there.
It would take one heck of a massive effort to get it to 19k and you could guarantee the market will have changed by that point. This size car is Honda’s bread and butter so it makes sense for them to plug away till they get it right, even while they keep improving the next (moving target) version.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:09 pm)#111 Statik
“I assume from the PTFoA’s report on the Volt, that it will be certainly be put on the table for termination by Fritz at the government’s discretion in the next couple weeks (along with anything else that would secure the government’s backing)…and at that point the PTF (knowing Obama’s position on EVs) would confer back with the executive on the fate of the project.”
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In my opinion, if GM kills the Volt then they are as good as dead in my view. They don’t have anything else to really offer the people on this site who are looking for a way away from petroleum use. I believe it would turn most of us completely off GM products. I still would want to buy an American vehicle next, but I would just switch to buying a Ford. And I am not a Ford customer. Only owned one Ford and that was my first one. But, they make some damn good vehicles now – just like GM. But I would be an ex-customer to GM.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:14 pm)To add to my last comment: I had been waiting for the convertible Camaro to come out to really take a good look at it. I had in the back of my mind to swap out my 2009 Honda Accord for the Camaro. I have been wanting to buy another convertible now for several years but did not want to buy one from the companies currently producing them. I wanted a Chevy convertible. My last convertible was a Chevrolet (about 10 or 12 years ago). My first convertible was a 1967 Buick and it was a real beauty.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:19 pm)So here a reason you will need a higher mileage car in CA…
Google this: autobloggreen half-of-california-gas-stations-could-be-forced-to-close-for-fai/
Looks like if at the end of 2009 Gas stations that don’t meet the upgrade requirements, they will be shut down.
Wow! $11,000.00 per pump. Holy crapola!
Dang moderation of URL’s….
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:20 pm)Sorry in advance if my post repeats, I was trying to “Circumvent” the URL moderations.
=oP
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:21 pm)#114 Tagamet
“I think we’ll all be listening when the Pres completes the plan by hiking gas taxes to MAKE the roller skates the only game in town.”
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And when he does, the media and a large portion of the general population will just ooh and aah all over it. He will be praised for his forward looking strategy to remove us from the evil oil barons. When you can walk on water, nothing is impossible.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:21 pm)Was the “Priust” invited to the Detroit unveiling?
________________________
Yup! And here’s a downloadable document containing the best photos I was able to take at our hands-on experience… http://john1701a.com/prius/prius-2010_introduction.htm
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:22 pm)Here ya go, CaptJackSparrow:
Half of California gas stations could be forced to close for failing to install new nozzles
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/03/31/half-of-california-gas-stations-could-be-forced-to-close-for-fai/
Statists HATE competition… any competition.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:25 pm)Great to see GM heading towards being a vehicle company again, instead of a finance company.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:38 pm)N.Reily
He can’t really walk on water (but he does know where the rocks are). I can’t imagine anyone but the most rabid treehugger ohhhing or Ahhhing about $4 gasoline – unless of course Barney charges it all to “the rich”. That would work, until we run out of their money….
Be well,
Tag
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:43 pm)#137 CaptJackSparrow
Here is the link you referred to. It is down on the page – second story.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/03/31/half-of-california-gas-stations-could-be-forced-to-close-for-fai/
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:49 pm)I’m sure it’s no different than the Prius when it first came out, in that the Prius was very expensive, right? (I think I was a sophomore in High School when it was released, lol)
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Mar 31st, 2009 (1:53 pm)#143 Zach
The Prius is still pretty expensive for the size car you get for the money you have to pay. Average price of the Priuses I have seen on dealer lots run about $27,500. That is against other cars its size for about $16,000 to $17,000. Granted, the Prius gives you a good bit for the money you pay and the 2010 model will up that some more. I was and still am impressed by the Prius. But, I would rather purchase the Volt or the Ford Fusion hybrid.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (2:06 pm)GAME OVER GM
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Mar 31st, 2009 (2:24 pm)#110 jeffhre:
Puts me in the mind of one of my favorite Dylan songs, “Hard Rain’s Gonna Fall”:
“There’s ten thousand whispering and nobody listening.”
#114 Tagamet & #138 N Riley:
Get ready for it. It’s gonna have to happen.
#115 Don C:
Very thoughtful. Thank you.
#120 Dave G:
Also very thoughtful. Thank you too.
#123 ccombs:
Yup, 60+ years in the LA Basin, and just don’t know any better. Thanks for your kind words.
#128 Bruce:
Amen. Although, from what I’ve seen, good luck getting an Insight for 19K. More like 22K to actually get your hands on one.
Lots of constructive and thoughtful comments today bloggers. Very impressive under these trying circumstances. All credit to you.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (2:44 pm)#73 Corvette Guy:
…Would any of you turn down a Corvette ZR-1 if it were $29,995.00 ??????…
YES, I WOULD! IN A FREAKIN’ “HEARTBEAT” !
WHO NEEDS A MONSTER LIKE THAT TO PICK UP DOG FOOD AT THE GROCERY?
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Mar 31st, 2009 (2:46 pm)>CaptJack
>Dave
It’s true. A soccer mom doesn’t really need a Tahoe or Suburban or Escalade for ’space’ reasons. As the husband of one of those soccer moms, I can say that it did take $3.90 per gallon gas to convince her to trade down. As I mentioned earlier, people buy for emotional reasons: Soccer moms convince themselves that their children are safer riding in a larger vehicle (emotion); having a bigger, nicer vehicle than what the other kid’s mom has is an important factor to the soccer mom (emotion); making their husbands pay for a vehicle that is appropriate compensation for their mother/wife duties is always gong to be there.
When I talk about truck sales, I’m talking about hard-working-blue- collar-beer-drinkin’-when-my-shift-is-over truck buyers. Those guys are NOT interested in hybrid anything.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (2:49 pm)#146 Noel Park
I don’t doubt that it will happen with our current political climate. When it does the old saying that “California leads the nation” will ring even more true. Just look at the sad state of California from economics to environmental to some pretty stupid regulations. I really don’t want to see the rest of the nation follow California down the rat hole it is fast swirling down. That is not the type of leading the nation I yearn for. I know, I know. California is a GREAT state. It also has many, many unsolvable problems with the current political climate found to reside there.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (2:55 pm)Jim in PA 116
Unfortunately viable is not doing the right thing, the best thing or the thing that is game changing and we would all love to see it.
Viable is simply taking pencil to paper based on what has been invested + will be invested from what will be earned, based on current conditions. No matter how correct I think investing in the Volt would be, I can’t change that it won’t pull net income for GM in the time frames noted.
Even if folks buy it en masse, if GM loses money at expected retail price, for every unit sold for the first four years, none of my hopes and dreams will make it viable through 2016, bottom line.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (2:58 pm)#148 ChevySales
“When I talk about truck sales, I’m talking about hard-working-blue- collar-beer-drinkin’-when-my-shift-is-over truck buyers. Those guys are NOT interested in hybrid anything.”
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And those type of guys are going to be there 5, 10 or 20 years from now no matter what the rest of us hybrid loving guys think. They will be an important part of GM’s recovery. Especially if GM can get the mileage up another 20 to 25% and reduce the cost of the trucks at the same time. There will always be a big, big need for full-sized trucks and SUVs. I don’t care what any one says. That market is not going away any time soon. And all you “tax gasoline so high that only the rich can afford to drive and then there will be plenty of parking places at the mall” types can keep on hoping that will happen. I don’t see that happening any time soon. Sure, the cost of gasoline will go up because of the cost of crude. But, these congressmen and senators don’t get elected by the smaller number of people who want large taxes on fuels. They get elected by the millions of hard working guys and gals who want full-sized cars, vans, trucks and SUVs to drive and haul their families around. Raise their taxes like that and they will not forget it come election time. IMO.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (2:58 pm)#120 Dave G notes Obama’s statement:
“I am absolutely committed to working with Congress and the auto companies to meet one goal: The United States of America will lead the world in building the next generation of clean cars.”
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It is soaring language. He says it well and impressively. Going from this high statement to specific lower-level actions is like hopping off a high stage on to the floor below — you think you can but sometimes a nasty bump happens. That is, my interpretation of the statement is that Obama favors the Volt project for the longer term, but he really does not exactly say that. It could mean he favors another kind of hybrid, more like Toyota, or that his thinking is just more “in general”.
My interpretation of Obama’s intent is in contrast to the actual text of the viability report, which specifically notes that the Volt is non-positive for GM in the short/medium term and says nothing about the long term. I’d take that as negative, at least for now.
So, if I were at GM in the position of having to decide what to do next to make the government happy (as Fritz is and I am glad I am not), I think I would wait to make any new commitments to the Volt until the guidance is a bit more specific. But I would not cancel Volt or do anything overtly negative. That is, I think I agree with statik
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Mar 31st, 2009 (2:59 pm)Not sure but I think Toyota is making a killing on the Prius, it should not be an expensive car to make since it replaces an automatic transmission, the starter and the alternator with their synergy system. Two motors, control electronics, small geared device and a battery pack cant be much more expensive than what was replaced.
The 2010 Prius is already ready to be fitted with a plug-in battery pack. The only limitation is a max speed of 60mph in all electric mode.. they could provide a plug-in instantly if the market demanded it.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (3:01 pm)RYAN P
I use the ZR-1 as an example of one of the highest quality, best performing Chevrolets ever built. Until the VOLT comes out, I would say with confidence that the ZR-1 is the highest VALUE for the dollar that GM has ever built. And, as some of you have noted, NOBODY NEEDS A ZR-1. However, customers who plunk down $125 large (or more) do it for emotional reasons.
Now, if GM doesn’t do a better job of promoting the VOLT (SELL THE SIZZLE!) then even if it is superior to all other hybrids out there, it will be a loser. Perception is reality.
EREV or VOLTEC by itself is not enough to sell these cars in big volumes. The public needs to be excited about it, and right now, most of them have never heard of the VOLT.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (3:01 pm)#154 Chevysales: Agreed, GM has to sell the sizzle!
Others: Would everyone just…. STOP… mentioning… Obama!
This is a Vehicle site. If ya wanna talk politics go to
whitehouse dot gov
WE TALK ABOUT THE VOLT HERE!
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Mar 31st, 2009 (3:04 pm)The batteries have been the key. Is battery technology there? GM understands batteries. GM seems confident in the batteries. Wrapping a good package around good batteries will create the future. I wish the Volt program luck to go with their skills.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (3:06 pm)#151 N. Riley on how truck people will be there for years to come.
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I completely agree.
I am one of them.
(It is true that most of us have more than one vehicle in the family.)
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Mar 31st, 2009 (3:12 pm)““When I talk about truck sales, I’m talking about hard-working-blue- collar-beer-drinkin’-when-my-shift-is-over truck buyers. Those guys are NOT interested in hybrid anything.”
Why would these guys want to spend more than they have to on gas? Is its some badge of honor to say, yep I get 12MPG in my truck, yesirreee. I think you underestimate people. All things being equal, you’d have to be a complete moron not to choose a more economical option. If nothing else for you own pocketbook.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (3:20 pm)Anybody know if Fritz Henderson’s comments today are available anywhere? I see clips here and there, but I’d like to see the whole thing straight through.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (3:23 pm)#158 Jamie says “All things being equal, you’d have to be a complete moron not to choose a more economical option. If nothing else for you own pocketbook.”
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We all make choices. Some of us like trucks.
(I’d like to have a truck that got more mpg, but that’s not the same as saying I want a better mpg so much I’d give up the truck.)
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Mar 31st, 2009 (3:28 pm)#158 Jaime
You obviously do not understand truck lovers. They like their trucks not for the low mileage. Damn, man. Every truck owner would love to get 60 MPG. But, have you really looked at a lot of trucks you see at Walmart or Target. Sure, some of them look like passenger cars. All shiny and new looking. But that is really just a sissy assed truck. Not a real world working truck. Most of the guys and gals I know drive a truck because they have tools, boxes, all sorts of things to carry to and from work-site to work-site. If the tools and such aren’t just thrown in the bed, they are stored in a tool box or a big tool chest in the bed. Having a nanny-panny Toyota Camry or Honda Civic to drive would not do for these people.
And there are those that just love trucks. They don’t need a truck every day (me included), but it sure does come in handy at Home Depot or Lowes.
Jaime, you just need to get out and smell some diesel and grease for awhile. Maybe you will learn something about truck owners.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (3:32 pm)#159 RB
Thanks to Statik
“Of interest (and perhaps on topic with Volt surival information):
Fritz Henderson (newly minted CEO) will be taking to the microphone to ‘Discuss Announcements Made By President Obama’ @ 10AM this morning, if you care to watch it, here is the link:”
http://gmtv.feedroom.com/?fr_story=9e40d5175d757a342d3c22d827c272010a1fa9a8
EDITED: Well the link takes you there, but for some reason when I click on play it says it is loading but never starts playing. May work OK for you.
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Mar 31st, 2009 (3:32 pm)#155 Ryan P:
God send that it shall be true! Alas, too much to hope for IMHO.