Mar 29
Tesla CEO Says Model S Equivalent Cost to a $35,000 Gas Car: Does This Mean Volt Will be $21,000?
One of the hottest issues of discussion regarding the Volt is its price to consumers.
As many here are aware, Tesla unveiled it Model S 4 door sedan last week. It’s hard to argue that the pure electric car isn’t beautiful, and perhaps more remarkable is that such a design actually achieved a CD of 0.265.
An argument that may be more difficult to swallow is that the car is affordable. That, however, is what Tesla CEO Elon Musk claims in a newsletter he sent out after the unveiling.
“The anticipated base price of the Model S is $49,900 after a federal tax credit of $7,500,” said Musk. “The company has not released options pricing.” So that price is for the 160 mile model, not the 230 or 300 mile upgrades.
He contends though that “the anticipated sticker price doesn’t tell the full story, it’s a better value than much cheaper cars.”
“The ownership cost of Model S, if you were to lease and then account for the much lower cost of electricity vs. gasoline at a likely future cost of $4 per gallon, is similar to a gasoline car with a sticker price of about $35,000. That’s why we’re positive this car will be the preferred choice of savvy consumers.”
Musk adds “Model S costs roughly $5 to drive 230 miles–a bargain, even if gasoline were $1 per gallon.”
So confident is Tesla that these cars will sell, they intend to produce 20,000 per year beginning in October 2011 as long as their department of energy loans come through. And that’s in the setting of a lot of stiff electric competition at the time they roll of the line, including by then a lot of Volts.
What happens if we apply Mr. Musk’s logic to the Volt? Assume the Volt is priced at $37,400 (Wagoner said mid to high 30s). I chose this number because it is exactly in-between the mid and high 30s, and applying the $7500 tax credit the car would effectively cost $29,900, breaching the magic 30K barrier which would make a lot of marketing sense. Now, if we apply the same ratio Musk gives, the Volt then costs $20,930.
Do you agree with Mr. Musk?
Source (Tesla)
This entry was posted on Sunday, March 29th, 2009 at 10:43 am and is filed under BEV, Competitors, Financial. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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Mar 29th, 2009 (10:54 am)The Tesla will be a neat car if it is ever produced. But without a range extender it will be a minor niche product.
People who are excited about electric vehicles consistently underestimate the issue of “range anxiety” which will be built right into any electric car.
The Chevy Volt solves this problem brilliantly with the small on-board gasoline powered generator.
There will be NO lifestyle change required with the Volt. Simply drive as usual. Anytime, anywhere. No worries about running out of battery power. Just plug it in when you get home. That’s it!
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Mar 29th, 2009 (10:57 am)What is the assumed MPG of the comparison car? I expect it is very low.
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Mar 29th, 2009 (11:18 am)I wonder if I can get the Model S body over the Volt’s innards? That would be perfect!
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Mar 29th, 2009 (11:37 am)You can’t compare the Tesla S and the Volt. Its like comparing a BMW 6 with Dodge Stratus. The Tesla is a high end performance sports sedan with the best specs you can get. Stuff like 6 pistion Brembo brakes with 2 piece floating slotted discs, full time 3G, 300 mile range (no anxitey), quick charge, 0-60 5.6 seconds. The Tesla S is worth 60K, its just in a different league than the Volt.
Mar 29th, 2009 (11:39 am)The competition looks great. It’s just more than I want to pay for a daily driven family car.
Also, why do we always include (or subtract) the Fed Tax credit??? Let the price stand on it’s own! Quit playing # games.
The Tax credit needs to be revamped anyway. Base it on economy and Green basis. Why would a 36mpg SUV get a similar credit to a 150mpg equivalent?
The problem is, we are on the same threshhold as the photo industry was when Digital cameras came out. Developing went in the tank…. So will the fuel industry, and with it the Tax generated from it.
+1
Mar 29th, 2009 (11:45 am)It shouldn’t be difficult for some independent consumer report type organization to analyze the lifetime costs of all these alternative vehicles
I expect the Apt era to be cheapest of all
+1
Mar 29th, 2009 (11:50 am)Musk is probably assuming 12,000 to 15,000 miles a year @ $4 a gallon gas, and figuring that in the long term costs of the car.
To one-up Mr. Musk, did he figure in the Tesla model S’s depreciation over long term 5 or 10 year ownership? A $35,000 regular ICE American car wouldn’t be worth much more than $10,000 after 5 years; so a loss of 25k over 5 years while spending about $2000 a year on gasoline, so 10k in fuel in 5 years. How much is a 5 year old Model S worth? Keep it in good condition, and you’ve got a practically new looking car with 5 years of battery warranty left, and several years of battery life after that…
and at a base price of $57,400, what would you say that would be worth after 5 years? Definately more than a the total loss of the $35,000 ICE car! 25k in depreciation and 10k in fuel in 5 years is a total of $35,000 lost between depreciation and fuel, AND the cost of tune-ups. Trans fluid? Power steering fluid? Check engine light? Coolant? OIL CHANGES? Not on a model S; so maybe another $2000 in tune ups over 5 years, sound fair?
So your $35,000 ICE car cost you $37,000 over the course of 5 years.
Would a 5 year old Tesla Model S be worth LESS than $20,000? Most likely not!!!
I’d almost say Musk is understating the cost effectiveness of the Model S.
What about a $25,000 car? I’ve got one, and after 5 years it was worth 6000. I get 24 MPG and drive 15 K a year. $19,000 in depreciation losses plus the assumed $4 a gallon makes for $2500 a year in fuel, or $3000 including oil changes and ICE-specific tune ups. 5 year total cost: (19k plus 15k in 5 years of gas, tune-ups)
$34,000 total net cost of a $25,000 ICE car over 5 years.
Would a 5 year old Model S be worth less than $23,000? NOPE!
Wow, it even works for my car. Even at $3.00 or $2.50 a gallon.
Looks like many of us are losing money if we don’t get one! We’ll see how much truth there is in that, but IMHO, it will be that good.
EDIT: and those calculations are done without figuring in the tax credit….
Mar 29th, 2009 (11:50 am)This all looks great, I just wish I could afford one
NO PLUG NO SALE
Mar 29th, 2009 (11:52 am)In the mean time TATA folks are talking about TATA Nano PHEV. The TATA Nano base model is India is priced around 2000 $. In the next 2 years TATA Indica EV will be released in Europe and TATA Nano EV will soon follow. And I can’t wait…
http://www.tatanano.com
+1
Mar 29th, 2009 (11:54 am)#1 PLJ
“The Tesla will be a neat car if it is ever produced.”
Tesla is the only car maker in the US with currently produced freeway rated EVs being sold to customers. Given GMs financial status I think you should say “if the Volt is ever produced”
“People who are excited about electric vehicles consistently underestimate the issue of “range anxiety” which will be built right into any electric car.”
I will buy an EV in the future. I have no range anxiety at all, in fact a range extender (ie, a gas engine) is a deal breaker for me. If a car has a least 100 mile range it will serve my needs perfectly for everyday driving and require no lifestyle change. Most other car makers see longer range as more important to solving “range anxitey” than slapping an ICE engine in a EV.
Mar 29th, 2009 (11:56 am)Just wondering if the driver of these pure electric car should carry with them a portable generator just in case they run out of juice or they can even charge their battery at rest area?
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Mar 29th, 2009 (11:58 am)#4- I agree, comparing the Volt to the Tesla is as much apples-to-oranges as all the non-PHEV Prius to Volt comparisons.
I’ve heard Elon Musk in person (almost got to talk with him!), followed SpaceX obsessively (and Tesla somewhat- less so since I found out about EREV), and know people who work for him. He is a visionary, but unlike most visionaries he gets things done. The only person I can compare him to is Howard Hughes. Like Hughes, people often get rubbed the wrong way by him, and ridicule his bold claims (good thing the anti-Musk posters on this blog haven’t looked into his plans for Mars
). Nonetheless, without question if he says he will do something he will accomplish it, whatever it takes.
That said, visionaries like Musk are extraordinarily optimistic at times. I think it is an “aim high” mentality, which leads to impossible promises and underdelivering. This is normal for startups, but people used to big businesses expect the “underpromise, overdeliver” mentality (I hope this is what they’re doing with the Volt!). With all this established, I hope I can fairly call Musk’s statements about the Model S wildly optimistic and frankly somewhat misleading. I don’t think people (like some posters on an earlier thread) should call him a pathological liar- I think he truly believes what he is saying. However, anyone who says the Model S (or even the Volt) make economic sense is fuzzy in the head. The whole point is to buy them so that future models *will* make economic sense. Trying to use funny math to justify them at this point will only alienate consumers.
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:02 pm)160 to 300 mile range will work when we have the technology and fast charging stations….some years away for sure!
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:03 pm)11. Anlac,
I have thought about the same thing, you can get a portable generator for camping and stuff like that in Costco for 800 $, so for city driving use a EV, when you want to drive out of state, either rent a Generator or buy one keep in the garage, when you need it keep it in the trunk and take it along.
Haul it around only when you need it, plug-and-play.
I am not sure why the auto makers think of this and provide the gen-set as an option and make it start up on the run when the battery gets low and leave it at home when you are sure you wont be needing it.
also take it out and use it as an emergency generator, take it camping, picnic etc..
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Mar 29th, 2009 (12:08 pm)I believe Tesla needs to state in how many years the two will be equal. Most likely it will take over 10 years to recoup the large investment. You could spendjust about the same on a Benz with the new CARB diesel and you get a return on investment in 3 years.
Just PR and advertising slick talking. They still market to high end buyers just like the Volt will. Tesla is just a bit higher end than the Volt. That is OK, just market yourself correctly or no one will buy the car.
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:20 pm)If Tesla has CD of 0.265 then volt team has to do a lot more. This points to GMs need of improvement because Tesla achieved better than volt at the demo product stage itself. so improvements will be better.
Again volt goes for a ipod style controls and tesla has iphone style controls. The iphone style will be cheaper as you don’t need to have different shaped controls and its only one display and more on software.
Body : Tesla goes for carbon fiber.
Again on design side , this is 5 seater ( i am not considering the 2 child seats ). Volt is only 4 seat due to design restriction.
If somebody says 230 miles and 5 minutes swap or 45 minutes recharge has a range anxiety coaff will be very low.
Looks its time for volt design team to do better work and make sure the production can have a 2012 volt with real competing features.
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:23 pm)Nobody is comparing the Volt to the Tesla, Lyle just compared the price of value of a Volt equivalent to a full ICE car using Musk’s logic. Of course the Tesla is a higher performance car. You guys can get off that soap box.
The Tesla will be competing on a performance basis with high end BMWs, Audis, Mercedes, etc. For the cost, $49,900 is certainly going to be competitive with the best of ‘em even without the added value of never having to pay for gas again and not being slave to OPEC. Plus there are other advantages like HOV lane privileges, free parking, the list goes on and on.
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Mar 29th, 2009 (12:26 pm)I’ll bet Elon Musk sold snake oil in his previous life.
The GM-haters who read this site would have a field day if Rick Wagoner had put forth this load of hooey.
Said it before, and I’ll say it again: At this point, the Model S is vaporware.
I do not question the sincerity of Musk’s motives, only his ability to deliver.
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:28 pm)#14 Ash
Portable generators are incredibly inefficient and very polluting for the amount of power they produce. Even the largest Honda portable generators fall short of generating the real-time power requirements of a Volt.
So while you could pull off at the side of the road with a generator and a tank of gas, you should be prepared to sit there for a few hours while you recharge.
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:32 pm)The point Elon is making is that the cost of maintaining an IC vehicle, with all of it’s moving parts, tune-ups, cooling systems, starters, alternators, exhaust… is much higher because all of that is gone in an EV. A pure electric has lower cost of ownership because there are fewer things to go wrong.
Of course, a failed battery = a whole lot of oil changes.
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:37 pm)“The ownership cost of Model S, if you were to lease and then account for the much lower cost of electricity vs. gasoline at a likely future cost of $4 per gallon, is similar to a gasoline car with a sticker price of about $35,000. That’s why we’re positive this car will be the preferred choice of savvy consumers.”-Musk
=================
I’m not too thrilled about anyone predicting over a 200% price increase in gas in 2 years…if anyone knew that so assuridly why be in the car business or do this math at all? I could take $15,000 and turn it into 100K with that type of ‘for sure’ knowledge.
The flaw to Mr. Muck’s logic…or anyone who draws a similar conclusion to the Volt is that, yes, the Model S and the Volt are similar in price to a comparable 35/21 k car…but only AFTER you drive the value out of them (he uses the more eloquent, “ownership cost”).
So yeah, it starts to make sense right around when you have driven your Model S/Volt into the ground (provided you don’t factor in the pesky things like the extra 10 years of repairs, 2 pack replacements…or the insurance premiums). So enjoy driving/maintaining the same fricken EV around town for 20+ years.
/people who buy brand new, high tech $57,400 or $37,400 electric cars are not going to drive them for 20 years while spurning all the current/new tech…unless they are throwing a tarp over them and storing them in their collection
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:44 pm)I love the Tesa Model S. I am not going to sell all my vehicles (Jeep Rubi 4 dorr/Titian/GL1800) when I get an electric car, I just expect them to sit in the garage more.
A 160 mile range is way more than enough for going around Phoenix,AZ!
It is a perfect commuter car with extra range, and it’ sexy and it’s fast. if stupid GM would have maintained more of the original look of the Volt it would have been some completion.
Who the hell wants a new sexy electric vehicle that looks like a grand-Am anyway?
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:44 pm)“Said it before, and I’ll say it again: At this point, the Model S is vaporware.”
Telsa is the FIRST and ONLY car maker whose EVs are rolling down the roads as we speak. They have shown their ability to go from prototype to production in a couple short years. The Model S is farther along than the Volt. Vaporware its not.
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:51 pm)I agree with the whole range anxiety thing. I’m typing this at my brother’s place in Seattle, whereas my home is in Canada not too far from Vancouver, BC. It’s kind of weird seeing advertisements on gm-volt.com for Arco, Oil and Gas Petitions to Congress, Obama age tests, etc. etc.
Anyways, I wouldn’t be able to drive a Tesla Model S all the way here with the standard battery. I drive down to Seattle on a semi-regular basis. I’d also like to be able to take an occasional trip to visit friends in BC’s interior. Hell, even driving to Vancouver on a weekend, driving around the city, and coming home would be a stretch as well if I can’t find a suitable high-amperage outlet in the big city while I’m visiting.
While people’s daily driving distance requirements do vary, I don’t imagine that too many people drive/commute 160 miles daily to take full advantage of the Tesla’s battery. Plus there’s the range anxiety factor. If the statistics are right, it seems to be a lot of underutilized battery cost when about 75% of people’s daily driving requirements add up to less than 40 miles.
The ICE extender is a good cost-effective solution for the time being. It provides flexibility for a full day of driving at a reasonable cost (i.e. a $2000 ICE engine versus a $5000-$10,000 more for a bigger battery). I personally wouldn’t buy a pure electric car until they can do at least 600 miles per charge, and hopefully by that time there will be more than just a smattering of charge stations to allow for overnight charges while you’re sleeping in a nearby hotel. I don’t believe in the safety/practicality of charging such a huge battery fully in 30 minutes like many manufacturers are claiming will be possible.
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:57 pm)I keep saying this over and over:
You can’t compare total cost of ownership, when the actual prices are not yet known, and the vehicle has not been on the road yet to get any kind of real world experience for maintenance costs! And we really have not heard what the actual warranty will be for the battery pack and the rest of the car.
And lets not forget that the price of the Volt was originally announced to be “well under $30K”. So how can anyone actually think that the quoted price of $57.4K ($49.9K + $7.5K) plus any option packages will actually be the sticker on the Tesla-S vehicle that ends up in the showroom?
In 14 months and 2 days, we will know the sticker price of the Volt. Then we can start all the real arguments!!!!
Mar 29th, 2009 (12:58 pm)The only way you’re going to see anything near a $21,000 VOLT is if the battery is leased and you get the tax credit.
And in a few years, there will be more EV buyers than there are available tax credits for them. Wouldn’t it suck to be buyer 200,001 for that year ?
I say we pull the plug on half the battery and go gas/electric instead.
Mar 29th, 2009 (1:15 pm)The Tesla S has a CD of .265, and it’s beautiful. Why the volt is handicapped with a higher CD is shameful for GM. They have to do better – both in CD and in style to win over the masses.
Mar 29th, 2009 (1:19 pm)at #1 above I said:
“The Tesla will be a neat car if it is ever produced. But without a range extender it will be a minor niche product.”
Obviously I meant the Tesla “S” model which is the subject of the article above.
Mar 29th, 2009 (1:31 pm)I want Elon Musk to answer the question of how my Model S will perform after sitting 8hours in a parking lot at -20 degrees F. Without an ICE to pre-condition the batteries, I just don’t see it working. Fun car for the Florida and California kids.. just not practical for me as a “summer-only” car.
Mar 29th, 2009 (1:54 pm)19 # Eclectic Dan
I only used the generator set we get in costco only to state how cheap a portable generator is, what I would like is for the Auto Makers to proved a generator that can be plugged in as and when needed and the generator to be turned on as the ICE comes on in Volt.
i.e work just like volt plus remove the ICE when not required. Also, use ICE for other things (like a backup generator during blackouts) when not in use in car.
Mar 29th, 2009 (1:54 pm)kdawg Says:
March 29th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
You probably shouldn’t buy a vehicle unsuited for your habitat, bro.
Mar 29th, 2009 (2:01 pm)I have a hard time beliveing a CD of .265. I’d like to see the test report!
Mar 29th, 2009 (2:02 pm)Question for Lyle:
Can you ask the GM folks if they have any plan to help Volt owners find E85 for their liquid fuel? The car will roll out first in NY and LA and a few Sun Belt states. So if you are an eco-conscious person and want to use flex fuel like E85 or less, is there any help finding those resources? Maybe even a marketing program, e.g. Volt owners get a preferred discount on ethanol fuel from local distribs?
This would further incentivise the adoption of renewable liquid fuels in place of foreign oil.
Mar 29th, 2009 (2:04 pm)#17 : To be true, we have to compare, not comparing mentality lead to getting a searate CR for american automakers ( means they are not comparable to international – i consider separate CR for American makers was a shame )
#18 : “Said it before, and I’ll say it again: At this point, the Model S is vaporware.” – Same applies to volt also ( at this moment ). Till a car is in showroom and real people driving , every car is a vapor ware.
Mar 29th, 2009 (2:07 pm)subject – Evs on the highway, long distance travel.following up on anlac and ash,
I’ve got a question re portable generators and pure evs. What’s wrong with this picture? Why wouldn’t a 134# unit( see below) work in, for example, an aptera for range extension. Plop it in the back whey youre planning a trip greater than 120 miles(projected range), begin trickling in the 3000w unit output when you’re down to 90% state of charge, and your range is extended to 180 or 200 miles, assuming you’re going 60 mph. Hang out in a reststop for an hour at lunchtime and your good to go another 30-40 miles( total range now extended to bout 250 miles!)
http://www.tidyco.co.uk/store/honda/generators/portable_generators.asp
Mar 29th, 2009 (2:25 pm)D # 35: The generator in the Volt is a 53KW unit. It is needed to run the car in “charge sustaining mode”, which means it will run the car and keep the battery pack at a 30% or 35% state of charge, until you get home and plug it in to fully charge it back up to 85% state of charge. You never really charge it up to 100%.
So a 3KW unit just is not going to work.
And the real question is: How would you really know when you would need the generator pack? That is the beauty of this design. You do not have to change your driving habits at all. When the pack runs low, the engine / generator kick on automatically, and you just keep on drving as usual.
If you do not need this capability, and only drive short distances, then a true BEV might work out better for you.
Mar 29th, 2009 (2:39 pm)#33 tinhorn Says: Can you ask the GM folks if they have any plan to help Volt owners find E85 for their liquid fuel?
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There are 2 reasons why E85 is not available everywhere:
1) Demand. The vast majority of cars on the road don’t run on E85. When we get to the point where 1/3 of our cars can run on E85, then there will be a good reason for filling station owners to sell it. Put it this way, if you were a filling station owner, would you offer E85 today? Could you afford to? It only costs manufacturers $100 per car to make them run on E85. Obama has promised a federal mandate that all new cars are FlexFuel by the end of his first term in office.
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/factsheet_energy_speech_080308.pdf
(top of page 5). Let’s hope he keeps that promise.
2) Supply. Ethanol can replace up to 35% of our gas consumption without affecting our food supply:
http://www.coskata.com/EthanolFeedstockPotential.asp
But ethanol becomes a really bad investment when oil prices are low. Even if they can make raw ethanol for $1/gallon, the overhead for refining to E85, transporting it, and profit for producers, distributors, and filling station owners, plus existing state and federal taxes, you have to sell E85 for at least $2/gallon to be viable. So if oil prices go low (like they are now), investors in ethanol end up losing their shirt. Would you invest a major portion of your portfolio in Ethanol today? It’s no wonder they aren’t building large scale plants. This is why I advocate a minimum floor gas price tax of somewhere between $2.50 and $3 per gallon. Or perhaps it would be better to go to the source, and set a minimum price of $65/barrel for imported oil. In any case, setting any sort of minimum price would be a huge trigger for bio-fuel investors.
Mar 29th, 2009 (3:13 pm)$40,000 to build the Volt, 25% GM subsidy making sticker price $29,995, $7,500 credit–net cost for Volt, $22,495.
I’ve been saying this for about 18 months now. GM is on record on the subsidy. The variable is what will the Volt ACTUALLY cost to build, and to what percentage will GM subsidize it.
Mar 29th, 2009 (3:36 pm)From the article headline,
Tesla CEO Says Model S Equivalent Cost to a $35,000 Gas Car: Does This Mean Volt Will be $21,000?
Not if the dealers have something to say about the price.
Mar 29th, 2009 (3:38 pm)#1 PLJ says,
The Tesla will be a neat car if it is ever produced. But without a range extender it will be a minor niche product.
I respectfully disagree. My household has two cars. My 101 mile commute would be the Model S. The ICE car can be for everything else.
I don’t see range anxiety for me or most people who have more than 1 car.
Edit: For a 1 vehicle household, I agree with you. An EREV would be much better.
Mar 29th, 2009 (3:41 pm)I wonder how many units Tesla will produce before they finally go under?
And for that matter, I wonder how many units Fisker will produce before going under?
Mar 29th, 2009 (3:45 pm)#13 Brett Pavel Says: 160 to 300 mile range will work when we have the technology and fast charging stations….some years away for sure!
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Recharging a 300-mile battery in 10 minutes will require 360,000 watts of power, and that’s for a small car like the Volt. An electric SUV would require twice that, or 720,000 watts of charging power. This will require huge electrical cables and connectors. Making that kind of connection safely with rain or snow dripping down your car… These are physical issues that can’t be solved with any new technology I know of.
So I believe the idea of fast-charging stations is a red herring.
Note that Tesla has essentially abandoned the idea of fast-charging stations. Instead, they seem to be embracing the idea of swappable battery packs. I have serious doubts with this concept, but I’ll reserve judgment until we know more details.
In any case, the combination of EREVs and ethanol can eliminate all of our gasoline consumption, without any affect on our food supply, using our existing infrastructure of 110 volt outlets, and liquid fuel filling stations.
Mar 29th, 2009 (3:59 pm)#12 ccombs Says: (good thing the anti-Musk posters on this blog haven’t looked into his plans for Mars ).
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Have you seen this?
http://marsdrive.com/mars-for-less.html
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:00 pm)HELLO!!!!!!!!!!!!, ANYBODY THERE?, I AM WONDERING THAT QUESTION OF PEOPLE’S MINDS WHEN THEY SAY AT 2 DOLLARS A GALLON FULL ELECTRIC CARS WILL NOT BE A HIT, WHAT?, DO YOU REALLY THINK GAS WILL STAY AT 2 DOLLARS A GALLON, FORGET IT, NO WAY, GOING TO 5 PLUS VERY SOON, REMEMBER THOSE PEOPLE IN CHINA, INDIA, YADA, YADA, THEY ALL WANT CARS, ICE BOXES, AIR COND, FULL ELECTRIC CARS ARE THE ONLY WAY WE EVER GET OFF OIL IMPORTS, AND THE POWER GRID, SHOOT MAN, HOW ABOUT SOLAR CHARGING YOUR CAR, EVERY HOME IN THE USA, AND BUSINESS TOO SHOULD BE USING SOLAR SOON, CLEANEST, IF THE GOVERMENT WANTS TO DO SOMETHING, CREDIT THOSE THINGS TO THE MAX TO GET AWAY FROM IMPORTED OIL FOREVER!!!!!!, RIDE YOUR BIKE, WALK, RIDE SHARE, COME ON, THINK BEFORE YOU DRIVE, I HATE GIVING ALL OF OUR MONEY TO IMPORTED OIL, FROM PEOPLE THAT HATE US.
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:05 pm)#38 detfan
Wow, if the Volt really stickers for $22k there would be no way I couldn’t buy one… Though I’m taking that hypothetical with a massive grain of salt. A granary of salt. Or a salt mine.
As long as I’m dreaming, I’d like a free pony (car).
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:09 pm)#20 Eclectic Dan Says: The point Elon is making is that the cost of maintaining an IC vehicle, with all of it’s moving parts, tune-ups, cooling systems, starters, alternators, exhaust… is much higher because all of that is gone in an EV.
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Yes, that’s true for a traditional gas engine car. But for an EREV, with a typical driving pattern, those moving parts are only moving 15% of the time, which means many service intervals would be 7 times longer.
So with an EREV, you probably just change the oil once a year and you’re set.
I understand that engineers love the idea of simplifying the design, but in the end, most simple elegant designs lose out to designs that give customers more usable features.
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:11 pm)I find it curious how much certain people are hating on Tesla. Its the underdog. The American startup. Its everything Americans usually root for and encourage. I wonder why you guys are threatened by tiny little Tesla? Personally, I am rooting for them 100% and I would so much rather give my money to them as opposed to GM. But I just want a pure EV, whoever can make a good one first will probably get my sale.
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:19 pm)Does the gen set in the volt put out PSW or MSW?
what about portable units?
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:28 pm)Ok, a pure EV has stupidly low maintenance coast, because the engine is just magnets spinning in coils. That’s it! You still have brakes, and maybe tranny fluid( I don’t know enough about Teslas make up. So, no gas, no tune ups, oil, anti-freeze ect. So the Tesla is much more cost effective regular maintenance wise, end of discussion. And are people still questioning battery pack life in 2009? Another few years and technology should have the original Tesla weighing less than the Lotus it was based on. But maybe I’m optimistic. You don’t need charging stations every where for the Tesla, but it would be nice. It is my understanding you can plug it in any where. It’s just 220 charges way faster than 110. And how hard is it to make a charging station vs a gas station?
But, the Volt has infinite range because it’s a hybrid (albeit a plug-in). I’d be more impressed with it if it went more than just 40 miles on battery, but 40 is the target range of most commuters so I’ll give them that. Now, the gas motor will run very little so tune ups will be far and few between, and costs will be much lower than your average car, but all that stuff is still there.
I think the Volt is a really good car for the times, and a step forward. The Tesla is the future here and now, and it surprises me how capable it is. If I could keep the batties warm in the Maine winter I might think about a Tesla. But really I’m waiting for an all wheel drive cute ute type all electric that can cope with Maine winters. For right now, the Escape is the best bet for me.
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:30 pm)#48 Me Here Says: Does the gen set in the volt put out PSW or MSW?
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The generator (a.k.a. alternator) in the Volt doesn’t put out a sine wave. It puts out DC, with a little bit of ripple.
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:33 pm)#49 Rich Says: Ok, a pure EV has stupidly low maintenance coast, because the engine is just magnets spinning in coils.
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Most pure EVs use induction electric motors (no magnets).
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:33 pm)In other news. CEO Rick Wagoner to resign immediately.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/gm_wagoner
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:35 pm)#49 Rich Says: So the Tesla is much more cost effective regular maintenance wise, end of discussion.
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See my post #46.
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:37 pm)The Tesla Model S is beautiful! It’s sleek, stylish and bold, just what most American car buyers are looking for, something that stands out in a crowd! GM had such a car as well, the Volt Concept car. But they changed away from bold and beautiful to plane and bland. They claim it was because of drag. Really? Just how much drag is there driving in the city at 30 or 35 MPH. Yet we see that Tesla has found beauty and a low CD. So what was the real reason for GM to move away from the concept car? We probably won’t ever know. As for me, I’d rather spend the $30+K on something that looks like that amount of money. The Volt looks like a $15-$18k car, looks like 95% of the cars on the road today and certainly gets lost in the crowd. I might have to wait until Oct of 2011 for a car with real style along with the bold statement that an electric car should convey. The production Volt unfortunately does not. Sorry GM.
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:38 pm)#52 JasonLee Says: In other news. Rick Wagoner to resign immediately.
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Thanks for the link!
Makes sense. Hopefully, this will shake the tree enough to get the bondholders and UAW back at the table.
*** LYLE ***
Need a new article on this…
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:41 pm)“Rick Wagoner to resign immediately”… yea, I just saw this on the news (and NYT alert) as well…
… though apparently he is not leaving on his own accord… but rather it was a condition of GM getting more of our (taxpayer) money.
Mar 29th, 2009 (4:50 pm)Unfortunately, that $37,000 gas powered car can take you anwhere you want to go. The Tesla cannot. The Tesla is not functuinally equivalent to a gas powered car. Period. The Volt can also take you anywhere you want to go. So now we have a car that requires that you own at least two cars, one a gas powered number and one a Tesla electric. Thus the cost of a Tesla S is $57,500 (for the cheapskate model) and another $37,000 for your long distance vehicle. Why not simply use less money and buy the better looking Fisker and be done with it? And save money, according to Musk’s own bizarre financial logic. Now we know why Tesla Corporation lost that nuisance lawsuit they filed against Fisker and had to pay over a million dollars to pay for Fisker’s legal defense. Logic and Tesla don’t go together. Never have. And I object to the government subsidizing millionaires so they can take $7500 of my tax dollars so they can buy $60,000 plus vehicles at a lower cost. Perhaps Obama might get out his dictionary and look up the word subsidy. This is totally sbsurd. See what happens when politicians start thinking?
Mar 29th, 2009 (5:01 pm)I don’t believe it would flow through so well with the Volt, as the Volt has an ICE, which of course adds a fair amount of ownership costs (fluid changes, spark plugs, etc).
For a 10 year period, I’m confident that those maintenances will result in spending minimum $1,500 at current prices, but likely over $2,000 as I’m probably missing a few things (when considering what could be considered ownership costs).
Mar 29th, 2009 (5:11 pm)I think that there are too many “stretches” in the “potential” math for the Model S in the story above. However, I believe that anything EV EREV or BEV that has a 3 or more year warranty has already been “sold”, and, that “demand” will not begin to come close to being satisfied for at least 5 years after the Volt (et. al.) intro.
It is far, far easier to get to work to afford a Volt at $35,000 in terms of a large down payment (selling your currently well-maintained highest-equity vehicle, and, sell anything else of value you want), to more easily get to the resulting lower monthly payments.
(Then offset the cost of gas).
Getting into a Volt obviously is far more “doable” at $35,000 than a BEV at $55,000, (net $49,900 if you like) and, anything other than the cost of gas offset would not really immediately help out in payment-affordability in terms of proportionality ($35,000 or $49,900) for a “doable deal”.
I think that the Volt will most certainly hold its value so well, that when it is time for financing, it ought to qualify for a one or two percent APR. (This 1% apr could be a consideration for some of us to give daily diaries here regarding how your Volt drove, and conversations you had with others about your Volt.)
Now is the time to financially-position ourselves if the wait list might be workable for GM, and, you are on it.
How many names are on the Wait list by now anyway?
Dan Petit Austin TX.
Mar 29th, 2009 (5:21 pm)Gary #24
“The ICE extender is a good cost-effective solution for the time being. It provides flexibility for a full day of driving at a reasonable cost (i.e. a $2000 ICE engine versus a $5000-$10,000 more for a bigger battery).”
Do you really believe the fully loaded cost of the ICE, generator, control logic engineering, control hardware, fuel pump, exhaust system, emissions testing, fuel tank, fuel gauge, fuel lines, gas cap, gas door, etc is ONLY $2000. Try more like $7000.
Mar 29th, 2009 (5:29 pm)Jim I #25
“So how can anyone actually think that the quoted price of $57.4K ($49.9K + $7.5K) plus any option packages will actually be the sticker on the Tesla-S vehicle that ends up in the showroom?”
Not that I’m advocating anyone plunk their $5k down just yet, but you can put a deposit down on the Model S that I assume must include some terms for the selling price. Actually, I do believe it will be a higher price once it gets into the showoom if you don’t lock in with a deposit just as the Roadster was.
Mar 29th, 2009 (5:38 pm)#60 & #24,
My estimate for elimination of the ICE, Radiator, Trans, Fuel System, and EVAP System would be similar in cost difference to a regular line production vehicle of any make you wish, and, something called a
“Glider” which would have none of the above. While “Gliders” would be something that could only be made available in very large numbers, say, if a BEV startup was able to tap a vast financial source, I would estimate that a “Glider” (which would have practically no warranties excepting possibly for the SRS/Airbags), might be about $10,000 to $15,000 LESS than for a regular production model vehicle.
This might be a terrific option for underperforming OEM’s of all makes if they would consider offering that option and were not in a position to perceive any image-conflicts with badge-removal. However, money talks.
AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY OF ALL, BATTERY ADVANCEMENT HAS BEEN MOST EXTREMELY “RAD” TO MAKE THAT ALL WORK TO AN EXTREMELY-PROFITABLE SCENARIO FOR COMPETENT EXISTING AND NEW STARTUP EV, EREV, AND BEV OEM’S.
Dan Petit Austin TX
Mar 29th, 2009 (5:51 pm)The Tesla Model S is no competitor to the VOLT. Looks more like a knockout punch to cars like the Lexus GS450h Hybrid which easily sell for $51,000.00
Go get ‘em Tesla! Just keep it “American Made”.
Mar 29th, 2009 (6:18 pm)If 40 miles per day serves over 85% of the population, then what percent is served with a 160 mile range vehicle that uses NO GAS (and never will) without any warranty required tuneups, etc, ?!?!?!?
GO TESLA – GO BEV!
Mar 29th, 2009 (6:32 pm)There is no range anxiety with a 160m/300m electric car.. just before you leave on your once-a-year long trip you go to the local Uhaul store and rent a 10kw genset on a small trailer.. they charge you about $50 and are making a lot of money.
You start the genset the moment you start driving, and it may or may not keep the battery recharged but it will extend your range hundreds of miles.. it all depends on how fast you drive and how big a genset it is.. since it takes about 11hp to maintain 55 on the hwy, then I guess a 10kw genset would do the same, maybe more since the tesla is so slick. This is not rocket science, we are talking about a $2000 genset mounted on a small $200 trailer, Uhaul will rent them by the thousands.
The volt will still require yearly oil changes, whether it is driven or not, and you always have to carry that weight around.
Mar 29th, 2009 (6:41 pm)You have to add the replacement cost of the Tesla’s battery vs the 10 year life of the Volt.. and you need to fully understand both warranties. It can be a little tricky getting that warranty from GM. Most likely the Tesla will need a replacement in about 5 years.
Also, there is a market for the used batteries from the Tesla (and the Volt).
Will the batteries be leased?.. that complicates it a bit further.
Also you need to account for the financing cost of the extra $17k that it will take to buy the Tesla..
The Tesla is likely to become a collectors car, since it will always be built in low numbers. The Volt is a Chevy
Mar 29th, 2009 (6:44 pm)$57K is a bit much for an everyday car that I’ll have to also pay to install a 220v exterior outlet to charge. Even with a $7500 tax credit.
I like the concept and most likely I would only drive farther than the 160 mile range ion rare occasions (2-3 times a year, like driving to the beach)- but what do I do, have a second car just for those occasions?
I’m retiring soon and if I buy one of these I’d have to pay to ship it to the city I’m retiring in because I couldn’t drive it there.
It’s a toy for the wealthy, just like the first cars. It will be 10 years (and maybe those new Lithium Ion or Ultra Capacitors – should they actually be real) before they are an affordable alternative.
Mar 29th, 2009 (7:07 pm)#65 Herm Says: .. just before you leave on your once-a-year long trip you go to the local Uhaul store and rent a 10kw genset on a small trailer..
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10kW comes up way short. The Volt has a 53kW Genset. You need around 25-30kW to go 65 miles per hour, without accelerating or going uphill.
Mar 29th, 2009 (7:12 pm)#64 Anthony BC Says: If 40 miles per day serves over 85% of the population
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On a given day, around 80% of the population drives 40 miles or less. But it’s not exactly the same people every day. Some of those people drive a lot more than 160 miles on a some days. And many of those people don’t always know ahead of time which days those will be.
In any event, most people cant afford a $50,000 sports sedan.
Mar 29th, 2009 (7:16 pm)While I think Tesla and GM are doing the right things in building these new generation of EV and range extended EV’s I think they’re over selling the cost of operating these cars.
Just take a look at your electric bill and see how much you are paying per kw-hour and I’ll bet it’s probably no where near the 5-10 cent/kw-hr that Musk and other EV proponents are quoting. Here in the SF Bay Area, once you get past the baseline usage for electricity your rate goes up rapidly. Even without a plugin car I am paying 25 cent/kw-Hr. If I were to add a car like a Tesla or a Volt, the added demand would push me into the 30+ cent/kw-hr.
Gas would have to go in the $7-8/gallon range to be price competitive with this electricity rate. And if gas got to that price, it wouldn’t surprise me if the utilities would be charging even more since so much of our electricity is from petroleum sources.
So while electrifying our transport system is a good thing, let’s not kid ourselves about the cost we will have to pay for it. There is no free lunch.
Mar 29th, 2009 (7:17 pm)#60 koz Says: Do you really believe the fully loaded cost of the ICE, generator, control logic engineering, control hardware, fuel pump, exhaust system, emissions testing, fuel tank, fuel gauge, fuel lines, gas cap, gas door, etc is ONLY $2000. Try more like $7000.
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If you or I were buying it, yes around $7K. But GM makes the engine themselves, and buys parts wholesale direct from suppliers at highly negotiated prices.
So my guess is that the range extender costs GM around $3000. That’s what I’ve said before.
Mar 29th, 2009 (7:31 pm)Statik #21
“I’m not too thrilled about anyone predicting over a 200% price increase in gas in 2 years…if anyone knew that so assuridly why be in the car business or do this math at all? I could take $15,000 and turn it into 100K with that type of ‘for sure’ knowledge.
The flaw to Mr. Muck’s logic…or anyone who draws a similar conclusion to the Volt is that, yes, the Model S and the Volt are similar in price to a comparable 35/21 k car…but only AFTER you drive the value out of them (he uses the more eloquent, “ownership cost”).
So yeah, it starts to make sense right around when you have driven your Model S/Volt into the ground (provided you don’t factor in the pesky things like the extra 10 years of repairs, 2 pack replacements…or the insurance premiums). So enjoy driving/maintaining the same fricken EV around town for 20+ years.”
The statement “likely future cost of $4 per gallon” sure seems reasonable to me, if not conservative. Consider this is not a statement that gas will be $4 the day the first Model S’ are delivered, but rather a statement about gas prices during the ownership of the car. That is not to say it’s unlikely gas will be $4 or more by late 2011. While gas is just under $2 today, it is just as accurate to say a return to the $4 per gallon seen last year or a slight decrease in price from last year’s high. Statistics are a wonderful thing. I say with confidence that once the world’s economy is in recovery and oil demand is within %5 of it’s all time high we will be in close proximity to $4/gallon. Personally, I think it is significantly more likely that gas will average well above $4/gallon for the 2012-2018 period(using 6 years average ownership).
To break down the logic, sound or flawed, of future comparison one has to evaluate the assumptions used. Assuming the knowns are properly applied and accurate, the “soundness” is in the assumptions. Elon states his assumption of $4 gas. They announced a 5-7 year life, so let’s use 6 years. Average annual driving is about 12,000 miles per year. Elon also states the replacement battery cost of $5,000 (the most suspect of Model S claims, IMO). A comparable ICE could reasonably assumed to average 25mpg. Assume $0.12/kwh for electricity. Costs are:
$2268 for electricity
$11,520 for gas
$2000 maintainance delta for gas vs electric
$5400 finance delta for $14,900 initial cost differential
Insurance cost assumed to be similar for similar cars
This adds to an expense differential of $5852. So, this leaves a total cost difference of $9048. So then the question becomes: Do you believe a 6 year old $57,400 Model S with a 70% battery pack will be worth at least $9048 more than a 6 year $35,000 ICE? Well, if the replacement battery costs $5,000 more than the residual value of the old pack in 2018 then I say absolutely. I’m thinking the replacement will cost more like $7000 and even with this I would choose this as a better financial decision based on the assumptions used. If the battery costs don’t come down much before the tax credits run out then the ICE will clearly be a better choice.
I’ve got this silly quirk of believing that making long term decisions whether they be business or personal should be made with one’s best judgement about the surrounding long term landscape will be. Unfortunately, you have to make assumptions. You could assume things will stay the same as they are when the decision is made but you will often be wrong.
Mar 29th, 2009 (7:53 pm)Dave G #71
“If you or I were buying it, yes around $7K. But GM makes the engine themselves, and buys parts wholesale direct from suppliers at highly negotiated prices.”
But we are buying it. We are speaking about affects on the retail prices of the vehicles. Also, keep in mind the prices of EV batteries and those of the ICE plus gas are moving in opposite directions.
Mar 29th, 2009 (8:29 pm)Range anxiety, central Alberta, Sahara – there are so many reasons not to buy a BEV. Sure it is not going to work for everybody but, dam, somebody must start somewhere!! Volt is an interesting concept but it looks way to complex for the mass production car. I can assure you some people wont even care to plug it in and just run the ICE all the time. EVs on the other hand can start slow for small percentage of people and over time build up their market share with expanding range pushing the capacity of the grid and chipper smaller batteries.
Mar 29th, 2009 (8:52 pm)I agree with Mr. Musk and I put down a deposit to purchase a model S
Mar 30th, 2009 (1:28 am)I have NO “range anxiety” at all. A Tesla with 160 AER is way more than I need. I’ll buy the first affordable EV that’s available, whether that’s a BEV or PHEV, Volt or Tesla, or ???
One thing that’s non-negotiable: I will not own a gas car ever again!
Mar 30th, 2009 (2:20 am)the Volt has a 53kw genset so it can drive at high speed, fully loaded and going up hill… again for a standard econobox of the ’70s it required 11hp to maintain 55mph on a level hwy. 11hp is about 8.2kw.. I am sure modern cars are better.
Also my point is that you dont need to have an unlimited range with the uhaul 10kw genset, it will vastly extend your range if you turn it on the moment you start your trip. Heck, even a 5kw genset will do it.
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#68 Dave G Says:
March 29th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
#65 Herm Says: .. just before you leave on your once-a-year long trip you go to the local Uhaul store and rent a 10kw genset on a small trailer..
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10kW comes up way short. The Volt has a 53kW Genset. You need around 25-30kW to go 65 miles per hour, without accelerating or going uphill.
Mar 30th, 2009 (7:37 am)I’m not sure where these ‘quick charging stations’ are going to come from or how they are going to work. The math simply doesn’t work.
Assuming a 100Kw/h storage capacity, to charge it in 5 minutes would take a charge rate of 1.2MW (100Kw/h * 60 / 5) Not only is that an insanely lethal flow of electricity that would require all manner of safety precaution, it would take a copper cable the thickness of your forearm to push that much juice that fast. For comparison, the 200A service you get to your house can push about 44Kw max. Unless someone figures out how to move that much energy that fast, I can’t see quick charging stations arriving anytime soon. What I CAN see is relatively fast charging stations in the parking lots of highway rest stops, where you could charge your car for an hour while you’re having a meal or whatever.
Mar 30th, 2009 (10:07 am)You should not need to charge the car in only 5 min. The range of 250 miles can be handled overnight and is more then 90% of people would want to drive in one day. For those few who would want to travel across the country on electricity bullet train going at 300 MPH is the answer. If you still like to drive day and night without sleeping you will have to swap your battery every 300 miles of so. I can see a network of exchange stations along highways. Most drivers will own only a relatively small 100-150 mile batteries for daily use and rent a bigger ones good for 300 miles for longer trips. I personally still much rather take a fast train.
Mar 30th, 2009 (10:40 am)Elon Musk has proven to be a brilliant businessman, but then he opens his mouth and says utterly dopey things.
Comparing the Tesla Roadster to a Prius, which he’s done, and now comparing the Tesla S Sedan to a Volt, is dopey. There’s no comparison at all.
Roadster is to Corvette as Sedan is to Mercedes S Class.
As for the numbers, lets crunch a few.
Using Musk’s numbers, $5 for 230 miles means a little over 2 cents a mile for the Tesla S. Over 250K miles, it would cost $5,435 to “refuel”.
At 30 MPG and $4 a gallon, a reasonably fuel efficient vehicle would cost about 13 cents a mile. Over 250K miles, it would cost $33K to refuel.
For a Chevy Volt that never got plugged in, let’s assume 50 MPG and at $4 a gallon it would cost 8 cents a mile. Over 250K miles, it would cost $20K to refuel.
For a plugged in Chevy Volt, it’s going to depend a lot on one’s driving habits. Hit a 100 MPG average with the Volt, and your fuel costs are $10K over 250K miles. Hit a 150 MPG average, and your fuel costs are $6,667 over 250K miles.
Yeah, I can certainly see Musk’s point about pure EVs costing less over time. Me personally, I only have about 52K miles on my 2000 Saturn SW2 that I bought brand new 8.5 years ago. If I keep up the trend, I’ll see the payoff when I’m dead.
I very much favor the hybridization of new vehicle offerings, a move toward plugins, and the evolution towards purely electric vehicles. However, until the recharging infrastructure is built, people won’t move to pure EVs, yet.
My Saturn SW2 is a second car. If I could, I’d trade it for an EV. The Phoenix SUT really appeals to me. All electric, no range recharging issues/concerns, should be able to get 2 adults and 3 kids in it, and it’s a pickup truck so it’s great for hauling stuff from the hardware store.
Our Saturn Relay minivan is a good candidate for retirement when a PHEV minivan appears on the market.
Mar 30th, 2009 (10:49 am)alex_md #79
Actually, the Phoenix SUT and SUV can recharge RIGHT NOW in 10 minutes at 440 volts. There’s no reason a commercial recharging stations couldn’t provide 440, 220 or 110 volts to consumers. There’s no reason we need to have 440 volts in our homes. Few of us have a gas pump in our front yard so we have to go fill up at the gas station. Why does anyone think that if electric cars and electric recharging stations were available that Americans wouldn’t be able to use their experience with gas stations and ICEs to figure out how it all works?
This is a non issue. To those demanding fast chargers, and to those who say we don’t need it, the technology exists now and it’s in vehicles now. Stop fighting one another and start fighting your elected leaders.
As for high speed bullet trains, I’m with you in putting these on my prayer list to Cthulhu, but I’m 41 and I don’t expect to see them in my lifetime. Europe and Japan have them because we bombed the dogsnot outta them during WWII. Nazi Germany provided the same favor to England. Methinks the infrastructure has to be destroyed in order to get better infrastructure.
Mar 30th, 2009 (10:59 am)alex_md #74
You’re absolutely correct about range anxiety. Anyone with two or more vehicles can figure out, that if they need one hybrid or plugin vehicle to compensate for range anxiety, then the other vehicle doesn’t need to compensate and could easily be a BEV.
Folks with only one vehicle who need to have a plugin, well, hopefully there will be plenty on the market in the next few years.
As more plugged in vehicles appear–be they PHEVs, E-REVs, REEVs, NEVs, or BEVs–the recharging infrastructure is only going to grow, improve, and standardize. Unlike our current gasoline refueling infrastructure, the only way one can get fuel is from one of the oil companies.
With an electric recharging network, almost any danged fool can have chargers installed on their property or business. Shopping mall, parking garage, truck stop, rest stop, hotel, motel, restaurant, fast food chain, amusement park, outhouse or henhouse. More choices means competitive pricing. The more AADFs the better.
Mar 30th, 2009 (12:27 pm)I want to remove the range extender from the Volt.
For the one time a year I drive past 60 miles, I could rent a car.
Mar 30th, 2009 (12:49 pm)I don’t know if I agree with Mr. Musk or not. But one thing I certainly can agree on is that the Model S is a BEAUTIFUL car. I wish I could afford one and it was ready now. I would be on it like white on rice.
Mar 30th, 2009 (6:21 pm)Who has anxiety from something that is 100% in their control? They need to see a shrink. If you need a car with more range and rapid refill, don’t buy one that doesn’t have it. If you don’t think you will need it, then consider the Model S. Simple as that, but nobody should be telling other people what the need or don’t need, want or don’t want.
Mar 30th, 2009 (7:29 pm)@ 15
Which Benz are you comparing the Tesla S to? Let’s just do some internet searches for Benz… Hmmm. They do NOT seem to be a better choice before *or* after adding in the fuel and maintenance costs…
1. 2009 Mercedes-Benz SL-Class
5styles priced from $98,500
2. 2009 Mercedes-Benz S-Class
5styles priced from $89,350
3. 2010 Mercedes-Benz E-Class
1styles priced from $63,000
4. 2009 Mercedes-Benz CLS-Class
2styles priced from $70,700
5. 2009 Mercedes-Benz CL-Class
4styles priced from $107,900
Acura?
2009 Acura RL, $46,680 to $54,100 seems comparable but the Tesla S still wins when you factor the costs of ownership (due to Acura’s 16/22 MPG – ouch!).
How about a Bimmer?
1. 2009 BMW 5 Series
6styles priced from $45,800
2. 2009 BMW 6 Series
2styles priced from $78,200
3. 2009 BMW 7 Series
2styles priced from $80,300
4. 2009 BMW M3
3styles priced from $54,850
Well, it looks like the Tesla S is actually at a good price point even without the tax break – that’s just $$ icing on the cake.
About the range anxiety, here’s a quote off the teslamotors website
“With the 45 minute QuickCharge or a 5 minute battery swap, you can drive from LA to San Francisco, Washington to New York or take even longer road trips in about the same time as in a conventional car.”
– A 5 minute battery swap! Anyone who can still have range anxiety after hearing that may have some other kind of anxiety (‘now how am I gonna sell off my oil stocks’ anxiety?)
If you’ve got a couple bucks extra, get one of these. And if you’ve got the money to buy a Tesla S you are not likely to be driving your own car on trips anytime in the future so there goes that argument as well, but if you did you’d be able to swap the battery for unlimited range.
Mar 31st, 2009 (1:59 am)You could easily unbolt and remove the genset, easier since there is no transmission. Pull the plug on the fuel pump, cap the lines, insulate the power connector carefully… I would leave the exhaust and gas tank in place, the radiator could also come out unless its also used to cool the motor/batteries.
may also need a reprogram but perhaps not..
Car will definitely be a lot lighter in the front :0 .. maybe 200-400lbs, add some batteries as ballast.
I bet a lot of people will try this..
Here is a 50kw diesel genset, only $12k
http://www.tqmachinery.com/Cummins-50kW-Generator.htm
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#83 jefro Says:
March 30th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
I want to remove the range extender from the Volt.
For the one time a year I drive past 60 miles, I could rent a car.
Mar 31st, 2009 (11:22 am)Whenever folks like musk calculate the conventional wisdom of gas at $4 a gallon, I think they crazy or full of it. Considering the great things Obama is doing to increase fuel efficiency and the lousy things he is doing to prolong this global recession we’ll have cheap gas for the next decade. The profound economic environmental and national security benefits demands the shift toelectricity but let’s be honest with the numbers.
Mar 31st, 2009 (3:18 pm)#67:
“I like the concept and most likely I would only drive farther than the 160 mile range ion rare occasions (2-3 times a year, like driving to the beach)- but what do I do, have a second car just for those occasions?”
my reply is that is not a very good reason. What do you do if your children and grandchildren come to visit twice a year, does that mean you drive a 15 passenger van everyday?
what do you do if you have to put a new roof on your house? Does that mean you have to drive a flatbed every day?
This does seem to be the mentality of many people. ” I occasionally haul some lumber from the Home Depot, so my everyday driver should be a 1 ton dually???”
When I need a special vehicle, I either borrow or rent if I have to. you could do that for your trips to the beach….
Apr 1st, 2009 (12:03 am)gamepoch #88
So how do you extrapolate your dislike for President Obama’s policies to no demand growth in India, Brazil, China, etc. etc.? Listen to Fox entertainment much?
Apr 1st, 2009 (3:36 pm)On the comparison to a gas vehicle….
What is not mentioned is the eventual $12,000 new battery pack replacement for the Tesla S. (12,000 is the staed replacement for the Tesla Roadster, maybe the S will be less). So does that come at year 7 or 10?
Also worth considering, what is the added electric cost for your nightly plug in. If the CEO assumes gas goes back to $4/gallon, he should also look at the $/kilowatt hour to charge the thing.
Sounds like he is giving all the positives, and conveniently ignoring the added costs.
Apr 1st, 2009 (11:05 pm)Dave D #91
Look at my comment at #72. These costs are factored, except $5,000 for battery replacement (12kwh less than Roadster and replacement in 2018). It doesn’t pencil bad unless you don’t think a used $57,400 BEV will be worth much more than a similarly used $35k ICE vehicle.
Apr 7th, 2009 (11:37 pm)Sorry, have a hard time believing Tesla’s crap after they took deposits on their sports car promising one price, then jacked up the price afterwards and refused to honor their original quoted price.