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The Current State of Chevy Volt Prototype Testing and Development

March 17th, 2009 | Posted in: Original GM-Volt Interviews, Prototypes

Frank Weber is GM’s straight-shooting vehicle line executive of the Volt program. I had the chance to ask him what was happening with mule development. At this point there are 35 or so developmental mule vehicles. Mules are early prototypes that have the full Voltec drivetrain but a borrowed interior and exterior. Within days the engineering freeze on the first true Volt prototypes or integration cars will occur.

What is the current status of the mules, since you are done with this phase, and where are they in the testing process?
Actually what is happening is we have done all the testing as planned last year. We have been using the winter for winter tests. You are counting in summers and winters. This is a very important phase to test everything under very cold conditions and this is what has been happening now.

So are you still figuring out the control algorithms and computer code?
This is all the standard procedures in a car and you know what to do and we have all those controls incorporated into the cars. But now what’s happening is the true development work that you say OK this is the temperature of the battery, and this is the temperature of the system, and this is what happens when you are plugged in, etc.

There are parameters that we call calibration, you have the basic software functionality on those cars defined, and then we start to calibrate it looking at the temperature and when to we start it, what is the true power of the battery at a certain temperature , etc.

How do you know how the batteries are performing in the mules, and how can you extrapolate forward to know that you hit the right sweet spot to make the battery last 10 years?
What you know is what the behavior is for the cars that we are testing, and then you make an assumption for how a component will behave over time and how it will behave under the same situation in several years. This is what we call accelerated testing. This gives you some indication of durability.

The piece that is tricky and interesting about the battery is to do a really accurate extrapolation of the true behavior. For a mechanical part this is very simple. For a mechanical part you can replicate its lifetime and find out when it will break.

The battery is electrochemical and its more difficult to make those extrapolations. This is part of the learning we have to do, battery learning between the battery supplier LG and us. By the way this is still the element of risk. This is also why we are unable to get the car out any sooner. It is those things that have to be developed now with the components that are representative of the production vehicle. There is no way to do this any faster.

Have you started to build the integration vehicles yet?
No this is a different phase. Mule cars are now completed and have been since last year. They were all built on time. Whats happening now is those mule cars are now being tested up until the middle of 2009 and then they are replaced by the next generation of vehicles which are called integration vehicles. It takes a couple of weeks to complete the build.

Are the internal parts on those more refined than the current generation.
Yes, always. Whats true in the development is if you find something you might make a small adjustment to it to improve it. Its an updated version of those components.

Are you going to take those integration vehicles out of the test grounds and drive them around the real world?
Normally you have to be a little bit careful, but since we’ve shown the world the production version we can in principle take them wherever we want.

Will you?
Only if it is value added. There are a couple of interesting streets in the world where development insight is really generated. Then it might make sense to take then out there. By the way the current mule cars are being taken out on the public roads.

Posted by: Lyle

129 Responses to “The Current State of Chevy Volt Prototype Testing and Development”

RB Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 5:59 am

Always good to hear from Mr. Weber and get some actual, factual information. Thanks Lyle..

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nitpicker Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:11 am

“…and find out when it will brake”
may mean
“..and find out when it will break.”

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Bearclaw Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:13 am

excellent time to see if the potholes on public roads in michigan tear these cars apart.

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RB Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:18 am

“Whats happening now is those mule cars are now being tested up until the middle of 2009 and then they are replaced by the next generation of vehicles which are called integration vehicles.”
————————————————-

The schedule as it has evolved calls for “integration vehicles” in the Summer 09 to be followed by production of cars for customers only a year later. It is optimistic. People who get one of those initial Volts will be setting off on an adventure, no doubt an exciting one.

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Inhaling in L.A. Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:32 am

I honestly feel that GM should move forward with the current battery as is. Waiting another full year to verify that a good battery is in fact “good” is not what GM needs now. If the current battery should fail after 6 or 7 years of use then a warranty swap out should cost very little. Mr. Weber says, “There is no way to do this any faster”. Yes there is, go with it and provide a pro rated swap out if needed.

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Dave B Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:48 am

Interesting…anyone up in Michigan spot a mule car?

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Jim I Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:50 am

We are all in a hurry to see this car in our possession. But GM HAS to get this right, or there are no more chances for them. They have set a date of Nov, 2010. I am willing to give them that time to produce a vehicle that we will all be proud to own!

Go GM – Go GM Volt Team!

NPNS

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Starcast Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:01 am

I drive by the proving grounds on the way to work. and see many cars on the road. Often they have camo. I have not seen one with the volt signs on it like they use for the shows with the gov. I have seen The Cruze but is it a volt???

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BillR Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:09 am

It would be interesting to know how many hours of drive time they actually have logged on the mules. With 35 mules, I would guess it must be 10’s of thousands of hours.

It would seem that the primary function of the mules is to test the battery pack, the drivetrain, and associated components. They will need the integration vehicles to test the interior and its functions.

If I recall correctly, GM planned to build over 100 integration vehicles. Weber states that these will be built over a period of a couple weeks. This is about 1 or 2 per hour, based on 2 weeks at 40 hours per week. My guess is that some aspects of the final assembly process will be tested during the assembly of the integration vehicles.

I wonder if they will be built at the final assembly plant, the Detroit Hamtramck facility?

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Kevin R Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:14 am

Ditto….get the car on the road in early 2010, blow the competition and gov officials out of the water.

A report came out yesterday saying that car sales are down for a number of reasons, chiefly, there aren’t cars on the lots that people want. People are waiting for the next generation of vehicles. GM could fulfill this want.

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Rashiid Amul Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:16 am

Jim I # 7 says,
We are all in a hurry to see this car in our possession. But GM HAS to get this right, or there are no more chances for them. They have set a date of Nov, 2010. I am willing to give them that time to produce a vehicle that we will all be proud to own!

———
Right. The press enjoys using GM as cannon fodder. If GM screws this up, they will never hear the end of it. Perfection takes time. (or close to perfection). GM has to do something right for a change.

We have to be patient. I don’t think too many of us here on this board are getting one in 2010 anyway. I’m thinking 2012 or 2013 at the earliest. I hope I’m wrong, but with the limited start up they are having, I think I have an accurate expectation.

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NZDavid Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:28 am

And . . . .

When are they going to throw all your supporters a bone by letting you drive a mule?

/sigh

LJGTVWOTR
NO plug, NO sale.
=D~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:31 am

From the article: The battery is electrochemical and its more difficult to make those extrapolations. This is part of the learning we have to do, battery learning between the battery supplier LG and us. By the way this is still the element of risk.
————————————————————————————–
This sort of goes against the report that Lutz gave from the battery lab testing. He said they’ve already tested them for 10-years worth of charge/discharge cycles at all sorts of temperatures, and that the battery was meeting or exceeding their expectations.

Now Weber is contradicting that. I wonder if something has happened.

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k-dawg Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:32 am

#6 Dave B Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:48 am
Interesting…anyone up in Michigan spot a mule car?
———
I dont know.. i see a lot of Malibu’s. Guess i’ll start looking a little closer. It would be funny if someone stole/car-jacked a Malivolt, and when they got in, realized they were in a very different car. They would also be getting a test drive before Lyle

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Marinko Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:40 am

I don’t understand why they have an interim release that has a smaller all electric range (e.g 20 miles) but uses Nickel Metal Hydride batteries. It doesn’t need to be a series hybrid – it could be a parallel hybrid, just so long as it has a plug.

The advantages of this approach:
1. not everything riding on volt
2. GM would have a product now that is game-changing i.e. it plugs in
3. buys more time to perfect the volt
4. It would generate sales $$$$$
5. Give GM’s plans to survive more credibility than arriving at congress in a couple mules.

THe only potential issue is if there is a patent restriction, but I’m sure GM could work s/t out with Cobasys.

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Marinko Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:51 am

Re previous post – I meant why they don’t have this as an option.
Also using NiMH batteries which have been tried and test for over a decade now would allow them to fast track production b/c no further testing would be required. GM had an EV1 that was a series hybrid over a decade ago!

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Herm Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:14 am

the nimh battery with a 20 mile range would be about the same weight, and it is proven tech.. no idea if there is enough batteries around for GM to offer this.. cost would be the same and perhaps a marketing disaster.. it still would not bring the car in sooner. Even as it is, people complain about the 40 mile range.

quote: I honestly feel that GM should move forward with the current battery as is. Waiting another full year to verify that a good battery is in fact “good” is not what GM needs now.

Are you nuts?.. even the current schedule is risky!, batteries start going bad after 2 years of street use or you get the occasional fire and there goes the future of electric cars and GM down the toilet.. same thing that happened to lighter-than-air transportation when the Hinderberg went up in flames.

Lithium batteries that last more than 2-3 years are still a new development and GM is taking a big risk with a 10 year warranty. They trust their “accelerated” life testing. When is the last time you saw a laptop or cell phone lithium battery last more than 3 years

I still think not going with the rugged LiFe cells from A123 may eventually prove to be a mistake.

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Biodieseljeep Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:22 am

I have a friend who drove one of the mules (no, I am not giving any hints or whatnot. He’s in the industry but not in GM). Lyle probably has already had as much fun with electric cars as he could hope (w/ the Tesla). This mule is cool but not so much that it is worth showing off without the pretty bells and whistles of a Volt interior…because the price-tag pig is going to need a lot of lipstick.

His mule test-drive report summary: “It’s an electric car,so it’s really fun. But is it $40,000 of fun? $30,000 of fun? I don’t know, the math might not be there.”

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Schmeltz Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:28 am

Regarding delivery of the Volt to customers, I feel as Jim I and Rashiid do…GM MUST get this car right the first time. Somehow, if they haven’t already, they must learn to tune out the background noise of bankruptcy rumors and everything else that is otherwise a distraction. Of course, that’s easier said than done, but in order to make the Volt a success, that’s the mindset that needs to be in place.

Frank Weber: Thank you for sharing the current developement news with us here. We look forward to and appreciate these updates. Keep up the good work!

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Todd Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:28 am

It’s good to see the battery testing is going forward and so far there don’t seem to be any major surprises. The only issue that I have is that I will have to own two vehicles (actually three – I own a motorcycle). The Volt is just not going to pull my camper trailer, so the truck stays.

I had an epiphany this morning. While riding my motorcycle to work I looked down and the odometer was at 145 miles, another 20 miles and I’ll need to fill the tank. I truly hate stopping for gas going to or from work. Even though this is just a once a week occurrence on the motorcycle, I still hate it. Since it’s only 15 miles to work and the same home, with the Volt I would very rarely have to stop for gas going to or from work. I may stop to fill up the little gas tank on a Friday for some Saturday running around, where the engine may need to start up. During a normal week, I would never have to stop. I really like that idea.

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Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:33 am

#15 Marinko Says: I don’t understand why they have an interim release that has a smaller all electric range (e.g 20 miles) but uses Nickel Metal Hydride batteries.
————————————————————————————–
Three reasons:

1) Because an NiMH battery that size probably wouldn’t have enough power to drive the 150hp electric motor.

2) Because NiMH has a much higher self-discharge (it discharges just sitting there).

3) Because Chevron owns key patents and won’t let NiMH be used in any vehicle that doesn’t use gas as it’s main fuel source.

Bottom line: Forget about NiMH – it ain’t gonna happen.

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Electroman Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:40 am

Is it really necessary to put so much focus on the battery lasting 10 years? There are major battery breakthroughs happening all the time these days (see MITs new glassed lithium technology that allows charging/discharging 200 times faster than current tech). Is anyone even going to want to own a battery based on 2008 technology in 2013 let alone 2018? I think they should assume customers will want to upgrade their battery in five years and should be designing it’s lifespan accordingly.

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Adrian Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:48 am

Listen don’t look for the Volt mule. There should be the lack of a normal engine sound…

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Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 8:53 am

#22 Electroman Says: I think they should assume customers will want to upgrade their battery in five years and should be designing it’s lifespan accordingly.
————————————————————————————–
40 miles of all-electric range covers the normal daily driving of around 80% of the population. Why would these people want to pay to upgrade their battery?

Besides, the battey pack has a lot of software inside, so it really has to come from GM to interface properly withe the rest of the vehicle. GM has said they won’t go over 40 miles.

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Jackson Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:08 am

I wonder sometimes if anyone here really appreciates what a long shot Volt is, despite promising indications. So many “firsts” have to be gotten right, with no second chances.

If GM manages to pull this off, the fire is lit for other manufacturers to gather around. We’ll see a lot of variations (lower AERs for less money, higher AERs for people willing to pay, exotic range extenders, high-power MIT batteries for high performance, etc). If they don’t, we’ll be left in the cold with the conservative Japanese for perhaps many more years — and no domestic automobile industry, with all that implies.

I don’t begrudge GM the extra year.

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RB Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:11 am

#13 Dave G said, regarding Lutz’s previously positive report on the battery as compared with Weber’s comments today “Now Weber is contradicting that [positive outlook]. I wonder if something has happened.”
————————————————————————–

I wondered the same thing.

Thinking positively, I was imagining that now GM is moving into the details of responsiveness or temperature control at a more detailed level that the Lutzian comments about performance and lifetime grossly. Maybe Lutz was speaking concept, whereas Weber is thinking of a production car. As we know, there can be a big difference.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:12 am

Electroman,

You can’t seriously think that somebody is going to sink $5k (best case) into a 3-4 year old car and be happy about that?

Most people get in the car day to day and just want it to work, if part of the routine is to plug it in that’ll be fine but they do not want to think about it. For the Volt to be truly mass market it needs to ask for nothing from it’s owner.

Testing is good.

However, I was chatting with some young engineers at the university the other day talking about their long distance solar car. (University of Calgary) They think the Volt project is bust.

GM, let your best cheerleader drive (or even better live with) a mule now. Lyle is a believer and if there was an issue with the mule he would work with the developers not against them.

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Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:17 am

MuddyRoverRob Says: However, I was chatting with some young engineers at the … (University of Calgary) They think the Volt project is bust.
————————————————————————————–
Do they have any specific data, or is this just your generic FUD factor (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).

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Tony Gray Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:21 am

I have been reading some tepid reviews of the Cruze in European form. That cannot be good news for the General, and I hope it doesn’t add to their woes.

As many on this forum has stated, the Cruze and Volt have to be home runs to keep (get?) GM back in the game. They seem to be coming to the ballpark with a better lineup (CTS, Malibu, Camaro, Equinoz) so hope so.

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Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:24 am

#20 Todd Says: I had an epiphany this morning… I truly hate stopping for gas going to or from work. Even though this is just a once a week occurrence on the motorcycle, I still hate it. Since it’s only 15 miles to work and the same home, with the Volt I would very rarely have to stop for gas going to or from work.
————————————————————————————–
Yes. I had this epiphany 18 months ago, and have been trying to get others here to see this as well.

Plugging in the Volt will be more convenient than frequent trips to the gas station.

Once the masses really understand this, cars like the Volt will sell like crazy.

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Eco Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:25 am

Interesting projections on the price of batteries.

Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year

http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20090304/166687/

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N Riley Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:26 am

Very interesting, Lyle. Thanks for the interview with Mr. Weber. He always has some interesting things to say. Looking forward to more interesting information. Every time you come up with articles like this, Lyle, it just raises the bar a little higher for the next article. Makes it tough on you, I know. Thanks and job well done.

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BobS Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:28 am

#20 Todd – Why don’t you get a Vectrix?

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Ray Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:39 am

I am thinking that IF or when the Volt ever gets to production and out in volume to the public…..I will probably not see a Volt til late 2013 or even 2014 (Central Alberta, Canada). if at all… By 2013 / 2014 the other car manufacturers will have similar or better milage vehicles out there (and probably better priced than the Volt). In the mean time I will be buying the 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid by September of this year.. It will be available at the local dealers in early June. And… from talking to my Ford sales rep.. the Fusion Hybrid with all the options will still be well under $40 K… Imagine that… up to 45 MPG (Canadian) in town and available now…. The Volt (Combined milage with gas and electric…. 50 MPG ish estimates only) for $ 40 K + but not for 4 years.. 2014 will bring cars that will average well over the 50 MPG and will probably cost a lot less than the Volt.. It will a tough decision on whether to go for tecnology or real world milage… I will definately look at the Volt in 20?? but in the mean time… there are other options out there.

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Jerome Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:42 am

#33….you beat me to it. I have a buddy who has a Vectrix and he loves it….of course he’s a huge EV honk and owns one of the few RAV4 EV’s.

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BobS Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:46 am

#34 Ray Fusion will get 45 MPG at best while the Volt will get over 100 at best, depends on how you intend to use it. Do you travel for your job driving long distances? Then the Fusion may be the better choice.

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N Riley Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:47 am

#13 Dave G said, regarding Lutz’s previously positive report on the battery as compared with Weber’s comments today “Now Weber is contradicting that [positive outlook]. I wonder if something has happened.”
————————————————————————–

Weber was referring to interfacing the computer code with the battery. Lutz was referring to just the battery. Now the delicate computer programming step starts where the whole vehicle is interfaced together more fully. Lots of testing and adjusting code. Testing with virtual vehicles and actual real world vehicles. After the integration vehicles are build later this year, more testing and fine tuning. It takes time to do all this. Maybe they will be able to meet the November 2010 deadline and maybe not. Let’s hope they will.

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D. Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:51 am

agree with electroman -Five years down the road, a 2015 volt with a somewhat larger battery might provide(will probably have!) an 80 mile e- range, be quick charging, and will make the 2010 version quite obsolete. With finances in mind, hope 2010 volt leaves some extra space in undercarriage for a simple battery upgrade.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:54 am

#28, Dave G

Just as you say the FUD factor (good term!)

Perception is a big issue however, (and when engineers building electric cars think it’s dead then there is real trouble) I really wished I could have sent him to someplace to show it really was an active project. I honestly couldn’t, as much as this is a good site/group we really only have rumour to go on.

Hence, why it would be a fantatic idea to give Lyle a mule to run about in and to talk up. We need real working hardware in the sunlight.

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N Riley Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:57 am

MuddyRoverRob Says: However, I was chatting with some young engineers at the … (University of Calgary) They think the Volt project is bust.
————————————————————————————–

These people are developing an electric car and the Volt is bad news to them. They don’t want the competition because they know they cannot develop an electric vehicle that satisfies “range anxiety” that everyone will feel with a fully electric car. I put them down as nay sayers with a reason to be against the Volt.

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ThombDbhomb Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:57 am

Weber does not suggest that timelines are slipping. 10k in November 2010? I hope so. I can’t wait forever.

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DonC Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 10:04 am

#13 Dave G says “Now Weber is contradicting that. I wonder if something has happened.”

I thought about this as well. However, testing in the lab is not the same as testing in the car itself. Lots of potential issues here as you take the battery from the lab, and at some point there may be no science per se behind the tuning, just trial and error. The same thing happens with wireless phones. You always end up having to tune the phones for all the carriers and it’s a lot of trial and error.

Plus they haven’t done this a thousand times before so doubtless there will be some surprises. A few pleasant and more not so pleasant.

#18 biodieseljeep says “It’s an electric car,so it’s really fun. But is it $40,000 of fun? $30,000 of fun? I don’t know, the math might not be there.”

Depends on what you value. As Noel Park so elegantly put it yesterday, if you can drive to work without ever turning on the engine that will be the greatest WOW imaginable, even if every Prius on the road passes you. IOW an easy positive answer for me.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 10:05 am

#40, N Riley,

It is a solar ‘race car’ not exactly a ‘competitor’… They race these solar cars from Texas to Alberta every year. They are NOT everyday practical machines.

I did not get the feeling they were against the project, there is simply a lack of faith that the Volt will see the light of day.

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Gary Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 10:11 am

39 MuddyRoverBob: Hence, why it would be a fantatic idea to give Lyle a mule to run about in and to talk up. We need real working hardware in the sunlight.

I get a feeling that Lyle already got to drive a Volt Prototype, but due to reporting embargoes that the automotive media is supposed to adhere to, he’s not allowed to say anything about it.

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MuddyRoverRob Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 10:19 am

#44 Gary,

You may well be right, and if that IS the case (and I do hope it is!) Then GM should do the smart thing and let him talk it up.

If there is anything GM needs it’s POSITIVE press!

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Anderson Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 10:20 am

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/wild-ass-rumor-of-the-day-volt-battery-program-not-making-the-grade/

I tune into the Truth About Cars web site for car reviews. However, lately, all they seem to be doing is beating up GM. They relish reporting any story that sheds a negative light upon GM, and they’re going as far as reporting unfounded rumors. (See link above).
I’d love to hear Mr. Webers’s response concerning these allegations.

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ThombDbhomb Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 10:31 am

#46 Anderson
People have to talk about something. When real news is in short supply, why not talk about rumors on a specialty web site?

BTW, doesn’t GM have a special rumor-quashing website?

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sudhaman Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 10:42 am

cmon GM do ur testing faster and work hard a bit and also to note please try to get the latest high capacity tested battery so that u dont fall behind ur competiters.

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noel park Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 10:54 am

Nurburgring!!

#4 RB:

“People who get one of those early Volts will be setting off on an adventure, no doubt an exciting one.”

Bring it on, sez I. It’s a few exciting adventures that keep life worth living IMHO. I would be happy to pay sticker for my Volt, or lease one a la the electric MIni, and then work with my dealer and/or GM engineering to dial it in, just for the h**l of it. Mini is getting people to pay $800/month to be beta testers, and reaping a ton of positive press out of it too. How brilliant is that?

#41 ThombDbhomb:

Amen. See above.

#42 DonC:

Many thanks for your kind words. It’s a pretty unusual blog where people keep complimenting and thanking each other. Dr. Dennis is plowing new ground here in more ways than one.

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Edwin Mang Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 10:59 am

I get a kick out of watching the GM stock prices as I have been buying little bits as the price drops . Each time it does I have a bigger voice in the corp . So each time the Goverment tells them they need to change something I buy . as the price drops . At this rate I will own the ball .

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MarkinWI Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:05 am

Edwin @#50 – Or you may have no voice at all if they go into bankruptcy.

Noel @ #49 – I’ll buy a Volt Gen I if there is a dealer selling and supporting within short range. Otherwise, I think I’m going to wait. I used to think about going down to Chicago, or even farther and getting one right away. Maybe you are more adventurous than I, or maybe you live in Cali.

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k-dawg Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:07 am

US Lawmakers Drafting ‘Cash For Clunkers’ Auto Bill – Aide

Mar 17, 2009 11:46:42 (ET)

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–Members of the U.S. Congress are working on a new bill to provide incentives for drivers to trade in older vehicles for newer, more fuel-efficient cars, hoping that the recent success of a program in Germany will give the program new momentum, a House Democratic aide said Tuesday.

The so-called “Cash for Clunkers” program is currently being drafted in Congress, the aide said. A similar proposal gained some momentum in Congress earlier this year but ultimately didn’t get the green light from Congress.

Auto-industry officials in recent days have called for such a program to stimulate auto sales. On Tuesday, General Motors (GM) CEO Rick Wagoner told reporters in Washington that a “cash for clunkers” program, subsidized by the government, could help spur demand. He noted these programs have had success in other markets, including Germany, where incentives given to buyers willing to turn in an older vehicle in order to buy a new one helped boost sales considerably in February.

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kent beuchert Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:18 am

So there you have it – the reason GM’s Volt can’t get to market any sooner – call it risk management – determination that the battery pack will outlast its warranty. Note that the toughest competitor (BYD) is a battery maker, well aware of the characteristics of its
batteries. Now the question as to whether A123 Systems incorporates the new fast recharge technology (and presumably increased lifespan) in time for the Volt’s first production year. I wonder how the battery contract with LG has been written?

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N Riley Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:20 am

#50 Edwin Mang

Well, if you do end up owning it all, you could do no worse than what has been done over the last twenty-five years excluding maybe the last three or four with the new Mailibu and Cadillac CTS, etc being developed along with the Volt. If GM could be judged by what has happened in automotive development in the last three or four years they would rival Toyota and Honda in good press.

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noel park Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:22 am

#51 MarkinWI:

Yeah, I do, LOL. And there are PLENTY of Chevy dealers here. Of course, how many will still be around by the time the Volt shows up is an open question. Still, my experience with warranty support has been really amazingly good. I’m confident that whoever is left standing will be very effective in supporting the Volt.

#52 k-dawg:

Works for me. Bring it on.

I was struck by what a good idea this is when I read about it in Germany, but I never thought that we would be smart enough to do it here. Maybe there really is hope for Congress, LMAO.

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N Riley Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:30 am

#55 Noel Park

Yes, anything to help entice consumers to buy. I do hope congress will place some strong controls on the program and limit it to American and Canadian owned auto companies. I just don’t see helping out Toyota, Honda and the other foreign owned companies at this time. I know they have American workers, but it is just not the same. This is taxpayer money and should be used to support our own companies. We will just have to wait and see if anything gets through congress and what it will look like.

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RB Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:33 am

CEO Wagoner as quoted in today’s WSJ online (from a much longer story) General Motors Corp. Chief Executive Rick Wagoner said Tuesday the company remains confident it can restructure outside of bankruptcy court and warned that filing for bankruptcy could lead management and the board to lose considerable control.
—————————–

Management and the board could lose control.
Imagine that.

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Reel$$ Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:37 am

Eco Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:25 am

“Interesting projections on the price of batteries. Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year”

This story is totally unrealistic. They characterize cost per kWh at $2,000. – even now it is below $800/kWh. A recent Business Week article puts the actual cost of EV batteries at $8,000. or $500/kWh.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_08/b4120052113533_page_3.htm

Prices of Li-Ion batteries WILL be halved – after production sales commence in 2010 and projections can be quantified.

The real story will be the cost per kWh of batteries made in the USA. So far EnerDel and GM and A123 have plans to manufacture batteries domestically. Pressures from Korea, France, Germany and China will make competition stiff. Korean product will be good quality at low labor costs. China product will suffer low quality and a negative political image. Americans will buy American product – given the choice to keep dollars at home or send more energy funds overseas. For every dollar kept at home – more jobs are created and economic recovery accelerates. Given the apparent econ-calamity, buying American will again become the right thing to do.

Part of the new Global Energy Independence message is to return manufacturing and energy dollars to domestic markets. Chevy Volt is leading the way to this inevitability.

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Schmeltz Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:49 am

#52 k-dawg

Cash for Clunkers = good idea if done right IMHO.

I don’t know how a bill could pass as non-protectionist if it contains some clause to buy only Detroit brand vehicles however, and that could be one of the major hurdles keeping this from occurring. I suppose even if there were no protectionist measures attached, there would still be some percentage of new sales going to the Detroit Companies, and `something’ is better than `nothing’.

One big thing going for this idea is there already exists a template, and a guinea pig. The result is it seems to have worked for Germany–maybe even better than expected. I think our gov’t. should try it–it may give the Auto industry the sort of shot in the arm it needs.

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statik Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:53 am

Thanks for the article Lyle. Good to hear where GM is in their mind right now.

It is a little disconcerting to hear some wavering about the battery from Mr. Weber. I have never really been concerned about the battery itself, until today. It seemed to be almost the one part of the program that was ‘flawless’

There has been some grumblings around the water cooler saying they are having trouble with it, mostly just rumormill…but the more you hear something, and with this sorta admission of difficulty, it makes you wonder.

/hopefully GM wll squash this one…if they can

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:09 pm

Blah Blah Blah….
Yak Yak Yak…

Just build my Volt Dangit!!!

No Power Windows
No Power Adjust Seats
No Power Side view mirrors
No Power Sunroof (Actually No Sunroof at all)
No Power Door Locks
No Power Trunk lock
No Radio (Remember that fiasco? – Get an iPod)
No Heated Seats
No OnStar!!!

Make the garbage, but another mans treasure, I listed as an “Upgrade” for those who want these creature comforts.

Standard Features:
AC
Heater
Defogger Front/Rear

Back to Basics Boys!

I’ll take my Volt with No Generator, No ICE, ShAkEn not StirreD…

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Schmeltz Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:20 pm

Statik:
Regarding the battery testing concerns, I’ve re-read the article twice and I don’t really see where Frank is, as you said, wavering about the battery. He mentions the element of risk associated with extrapolating the durability and future performance, and I’m sure that would give even the brightest of minds some reason for pause, but he doesn’t seem rattled by any of it in the interview. Unless he and GM aren’t being forthright about it, I don’t see a major problem in this interview.

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Jackson Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:27 pm

#38 (D):

“Five years down the road, a 2015 volt with a somewhat larger battery might provide(will probably have!) an 80 mile e- range”

Sorry, D;

GM has stated that 40 miles is “it,” with any future power density improvement going to reduce the size of the pack. At least, they ought to gradually redefine 40 miles from “driving like your grandmother with the A/C turned off” as 40 miles “driving like a normal person on a hot day in cool car.”

Of course, in 2015, with consumer demand and hopefully improving battery economics, this could change to an 80 mile AER.

#61 (Cap’n Jack):

When you’re away from your PC, your parrot hops down and makes entries under your screen name. Arrrr. Just thought you should know, matey

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Mike-o-Matic Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:31 pm

@ #46 Anderson,

>> I tune into the Truth About Cars web site for car reviews.
>> However, lately, all they seem to be doing is beating up GM.

LATELY??!?

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Mike-o-Matic Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:37 pm

@ #61 CaptJackSparrow,

>> Back to Basics Boys!

If you really think they’re going to do what you’ve suggested, then I suggest you have been hitting the rum a little too hard.

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Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:37 pm

#58 Reel$$ Says: This story is totally unrealistic. They characterize cost per kWh at $2,000. – even now it is below $800/kWh. A recent Business Week article puts the actual cost of EV batteries at $8,000. or $500/kWh.
————————————————————————————–
$500/kWh total capacity is correct. That comes directly from the company that’s currently making the Volt battery packs, so its no secret.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/02/profile-li-ion.html
Here’s a quote from Dr. Prabhakar Patil, the CEO of Compact Power, Inc. (CPI):
• First, … pricing is based upon end-of-life capacity … end-of-life to beginning-of-life is 75%.
• Second, the Automobile Traction application is sized for a 70% depth of discharge,…
…
• Fourth, a vehicle pack battery pack has non-cell costs such as a monitoring system.

All four of these items together justify … approximately $1,000/available kWh…

We know the available capacity of the Volt’s pack is 8kWh, and the total capacity is 16kWh, so $1,000/available kWh would correspond to cost of $500/kWh total capacity.

Furthermore, Dr. Prabhakar Patil’s quote above says the battery pack is de-rated by 75% for end-of-life, and de-rated by another 70% for depth-of-discharge in an Automobile Traction application. 75% of 70% is very close to 50%, which again verifies a cost of $500/kWh total capacity.

And the fourth point of the quote above verifies that this cost includes pack overhead. So using this quote above, it seems obvious that the Volt’s battery pack costs around $8000 today.

Another quote from same article:
In the next 5-10 years we should be able to come down by an incremental 2-4x…
so expect the Volt’s battery pack to cost somewhere between $2000 and $4000 in the next 5-10 years.

Given that we have these figures directly from the CEO of the company that’s currently building the Volt battery packs, I don’t see the point in using any other figures.

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k-dawg Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:45 pm

I would like to trade in my current car, but what will be considered a “clunker”? Is anyone familiar w/the Germany plan? I wonder if the amount you get is variable depending on the car?

PS: Do you think Frank Weber has driven a mule yet himself? I just wonder if his opinions are his own.. or if he is repeating others.

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Herm Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:46 pm

The A123 cells have always been fast recharge technology, I routinely recharge them in 12 minutes. Very rugged cells, will do thousands of abusive cycles.

Supposedly they are trying to get money for a new factory in the US, but I doubt it will be ready by 2011.

quote:
……………………………….
#53 kent beuchert Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:18 am
Now the question as to whether A123 Systems incorporates the new fast recharge technology (and presumably increased lifespan) in time for the Volt’s first production year.

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Voltair Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 12:53 pm

I suggest people don’t make too many judgements about driving mules. In my experience in the 90’s, the mules were really really rough. They often had serious faults from test-abuse, very green software, or the nature of their hand-assembly. Often the faults were not corrected for the life of the mule because it wasn’t worth the money or time…the mule was still good for testing even if it was hell to drive. I’d be a bit surprised if they let someone in the press drive a Volt mule…

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noel park Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 1:02 pm

#56 N Riley:

Amen!

#57 RB:

LOL. In a current interview on the Yahoo site, Wagoner ratchets up the rhetoric, saying that GM would not survive C-11, and would end up being liquidated. Opening salvoes for 3/31, what?

#58 Reel$$:

As to buying American becoming the right thing to do, and returning manufacturing and energy dollars to domestic markets, God send that it shall be true.

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ccombs Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 1:03 pm

Don’t listen to some people on this site and hurry GM!!! You gotta make the Volt as close to 100% perfect as you can, and that requires taking your time. I am willing to wait a year or two for a car that will blow away all the critics and pave the way for the electrification of the automobile (hopefully starting with the entire GM fleet). Hurrying up and having problems later could be disastrous for public perception.

PS. Finally, a string of non-financial posts!

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DonC Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 1:13 pm

#67 k-dawg

You get something like 2500 Euros towards purchasing a new car. In practice the cash for clunkers program has been something of a clunker, mostly because the clunkers just keep getting recycled.

Seems like a lot of government involvement for relatively modest gains. The weatherization programs in the stimulus package will probably save several times more energy per dollar than a cash for clunkers type program. (Just an off the top of the head guess).

(Quote)
DonC Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 1:24 pm

As an FYI, I would doubt we’ll see any decision on March 31st. The Task Force can decide not to be bound by the deadline, and, given that Obama will be at the G-20 meeting which is scheduled for this date, I doubt any major announcement would be made.

#49 Noel Park – The compliment was certainly deserved. Sometimes sentiments that many feel are captured in a particularly succinct and expressive way. Your brief post was one of those times.

#62 Schmeltz – Statik is picking up on Weber’s reference to risk with the battery. This could mean absolutely nothing, but Lutz tended to describe the battery performance as “flawless”. In the back of his mind are also rumors from a web site that the battery is failing on many fronts. My guess is that there are some issues but no show stoppers.

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Fahrvergnugen Fanboy Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 1:41 pm

Here’s how to put the hill-climb doubts to rest: Lyle drives from his house to the top of Mount Washington and back. To simulate maximum load conditions, he picks up three carefully-selected gm-volters on the way.

I call shotgun.

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LauraM Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 1:45 pm

I may be in the minority on this, but I’m willing to wait an extra year, or even two years if that’s what it takes for GM to get the car right. I’d rather see them miss the October 2010 deadline than sell the car before its ready.

I realize that GM is running out of time, but there’s no way that the Volt is going to be ready in time to make any practical difference to the bankruptcy issue. Not at the anticipated production scale. And politically, I don’t think a couple of months will make a difference.

I believe that the Volt could be a game changer. But it will be a game changer for 2014 and after. And that will only happen if they get it right the first time rather than rushing it to the market before it’s ready.

(Quote)
MarkinWI Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:16 pm

Hey Lyle, when you gonna do another get-together? Any chance that GM would host us in Michigan? My summer calendar is starting to fill up.

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N Riley Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:44 pm

#58 Reell$$

“Americans will buy American product – given the choice to keep dollars at home or send more energy funds overseas. For every dollar kept at home – more jobs are created and economic recovery accelerates. Given the apparent econ-calamity, buying American will again become the right thing to do.”
————————–

Just where have you been these past 30 – 35 yeas as Americans opt for more and more foreign owned autos and products? Has this turned around without me hearing about it? Americans are world-class idiots at buying foreign goods over American/Canadian made goods. If they were not many hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of jobs would not have been shipped overseas during the since the early 90s.

Or, did I just mis-understand what you meant?

(Quote)
noel park Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:46 pm

#72 DonC:

I don’t know how the German model works, but we have had an off and on program here in CA, run by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). This program bought cars earlier than a certain year, maybe 1975 or 1980. The cars were scrapped. To me, this is the only thing that is credible. If the Germans are allowing them to be sort of traded in and put back on the road, no wonder it wouldn’t accomplish much.

The earlier cars were MUCH dirtier than current cars and, of course, the emissions systems were often deteriorated and compromised. So the emissions reductions were a really good bang for the buck.

If the goal is fuel economy, I think that similar issues would hold true.

So basically I agree with you. If the “clunkers” are “recycled” back onto the road, the whole thing is a waste of time. If they are scrapped, the program could be very effective.

(Quote)
eightzero Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:49 pm

I can seemingly buy a 2010 Chevy Camaro right now for around $37k:

http://www.autoblog.com/2009/03/17/its-here-the-2010-chevy-camaro-configurator/

But of course I won’t because I don’t want something like that. I want a 2010 Volt. But sadly, I won’t ever be able to buy one, mostly because *this* is what Chevy is now making.

I’d be curious about the kinds of response Chevy would get right now for a Volt in the showroom at $30k or less. I wonder how many they’d sell?

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Bob G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:51 pm

#61 CaptJackSparrow Says, “…Make the garbage, but another mans treasure, I listed as an “Upgrade” for those who want these creature comforts.”

LOL … Thanks for acknowledging my treasure!

(Quote)
CaptJackSparrow Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:53 pm

Looks like pres Obama is going to visit the Souther CA Edison Tech facility….
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/03/17/president-obama-will-visit-sce-electric-vehicle-center-thursday/

To most it seems that a Power company is a good place to start plugin and BEV research. To me I see them engineering “Big Brother” into the design to keep track of mileage for the mileage tax. Hence the “Smart Grid”. I guess they’ll track you charge usage to adjust your rates as well.
Just pure speculation on my part.

(Quote)
k-dawg Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:54 pm

#72 Don C

I guess i’m not following you. Recycling = good because save’s energy vs. mining ore, Buying new cars = good for economy, New Cars = good for environment due to better MPG.

(Quote)
noel park Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:59 pm

#77 N Riley:

Well I prefer to believe that you both are right. I can’t/don’t want to put words in Reel$$’ mouth, but my sense of his comment was that he agreed with your feelings (and mine, as you know). My sense of it was that he felt that “Given the apparent econ-calamity…”, Americans might come around to your way of thinking. My follow up comment was based upon that interpretation.

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Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 3:07 pm

#68 Herm Says: The A123 cells have always been fast recharge technology, I routinely recharge them in 12 minutes. Very rugged cells, will do thousands of abusive cycles.
————————————————————————————–
The Volt’s battery pack will charge much faster then 3 hours, probably as fast as 30-45 minutes without any increased wear on the battery, but charging the Volt that fast would:
a) require much more power than most home circuits offer.
b) require a larger, heavier, more expensive charger in the Volt.
c) heat the battery enough to engage the internal cooling system.
d) pose a huge risk to the stability of the grid if this type of charging becomes common.

But here’s the real issue: If the Volt allowed the user to somehow select different charging rates, you absolutely know that many people will try charge their Volt faster than their home circuit will allow, and many of them will burn their house down, and a lot of them will sue GM, and some of them will get sympathetic juries that hate GM, so GM will have to pay…

But if GM limits the charging current to 11 amps (like a vacuum cleaner), then just about all home circuits will support that, and there will be no problems.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 3:15 pm

@Dave G 84

When all is said and done, the Volt will come with a 110VAC 15A charger and/or 220VAC 30A charger.

I don’t see a “Fast” charger till 2013-14. For now, there’s just no reason for it for an EREV.

(Quote)
N Riley Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 3:37 pm

#63 Jackson says:

“#61 (Cap’n Jack):

When you’re away from your PC, your parrot hops down and makes entries under your screen name. Arrrr. Just thought you should know, matey ”
————————–

What are you talking about. The parrot is the one that’s been doing all of his postings. Can’t you tell?

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statik Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 3:38 pm

#73 DonC said:

#62 Schmeltz – Statik is picking up on Weber’s reference to risk with the battery. This could mean absolutely nothing, but Lutz tended to describe the battery performance as “flawless”. In the back of his mind are also rumors from a web site that the battery is failing on many fronts. My guess is that there are some issues but no show stoppers.

===================
Yeah, what DonC said, lol.

For the record I’m still 90% confident the battery is not a issue…I used to be more like 99% is all. Just feels like we are not in the same “flawless, exceeding all expectations, no problemo” category anymore…like maybe it is being ratcheted down somewhat of late.

/just a casual observation….not getting all serious about it yet

(Quote)
N Riley Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 3:48 pm

#70 Noel Park

“As to buying American becoming the right thing to do, and returning manufacturing and energy dollars to domestic markets, God send that it shall be true.”
————————-

I am of the opinion that we should allow foreign countries to sell in the U.S. only up to the amount we are allowed to sell into their countries. Doesn’t have to same products versus the same product, but a product mix totaling the amount purchased from us. Each year totals would be derived and compared and the current period’s purchases from that country would be adjusted based on the previous reported period. Japan Inc would find that it would have to open its markets to outside products to enable them to continue selling in our country. Same for China, South Korea and others.

There have been some business leaders suggesting something like this approach through inmport/export credits.

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Todd Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 3:54 pm

#33 BobS Says Todd – Why don’t you get a Vectrix?

I’m guessing you have never ridden a motorcycle in Dallas. Riding a motorcycle is dangerious enough in this traffic. A scooter would mean certain death. Though the range is good enough for a daily commute, both my truck and my motorcycle are paid for. I also go on long distance rides for enjoyment and the Vectrix would not be able to accomodate that. If I was just a commuting rider then the Vectrix may be a good idea.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 4:00 pm

N Riley Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 3:37 pm

#63 Jackson says:

“#61 (Cap’n Jack):

When you’re away from your PC, your parrot hops down and makes entries under your screen name. Arrrr. Just thought you should know, matey ”
————————–

What are you talking about. The parrot is the one that’s been doing all of his postings. Can’t you tell?
—————————————————————————

The Parrot drinks Rum too!
Although we can’t seem to find the right “Elizabeth” at H( . Y . )ters.

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RB Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 4:46 pm

#70 noel park says regarding GM statements
“Opening salvoes for 3/31, what?”
————————–

Indeed so.

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Peter Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 5:13 pm

“3) Because Chevron owns key patents and won’t let NiMH be used in any vehicle that doesn’t use gas as it’s main fuel source.

Bottom line: Forget about NiMH – it ain’t gonna happen.”

Hmmm…. GM owned a part of this patent and sold it to Chevron. Pretty short sighted at the time.

I can’t wait any longer. Too much hype and no delivery. It went between the Prius and the Jetta TDI. Well… the Prius was just too damn fugly for me so went with the 09′ Jetta TDI. So far so good. Getting 45mpg mostly city driving. This thing hauls a#$. Luv it. Plus the new 2.0L TDI 16v blows zero smoke. It’s cleaner than a gasoline car. White cloth behind the exhaust pipe shows nothing.

Keep our tax dollars in our pockets. Forget about bailing out Chrysler/GM. They’ll go bankrupt anyway, let’em. Toyota & VW are doing so well because they are actually building cars people WANT. GM tried to tell us for the longest time we wanted the H2 Hummer. NO we didn’t. Bailing them out is like rewarding stupidity.

Ask yourself why you can’t get a TDI style diesel in a 1/2ton domestic pickup??? Haven’t these idiots learned anything from Europe? I’ve been asking Ford for a diesel F150 for 10yrs now. Same old “thank you for letting us know”. Well… if you snooze you lose.

My bro-in-law has the eBox from AC Propulsion. Some little probs here and there but generally a good experience. Super cheap to run. $30/month vs $400/month fuel cost of my F250 7.3L powerstroke crew 4×4. TDI comes in about $160/month. For my daily work commute. I just don’t have $70kUSD lying around for an eBox but they aren’t building them anymore anyhow.

His eBox is the first and only one in Canada (Vancouver, BC).

Can somebody PLEASE come out with a production 100% electric?????? If AC Propulsion can do it for $70k then GM or any other large car company should be able to do it for half that. Economies of scale.

(Quote)
CaptJackSparrow Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 5:38 pm

@Peter 92

Then consider a retrofit product professionally done…
http://www.hybridtechnologies.com/order

(Quote)
Mark Z Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 5:48 pm

#52 – ‘Cash For Clunkers’

I would gladly take $2000 cash for my ‘94 Eldo. Replacing the struts and head gaskets alone would cost $6000 for repairs. The GM-VOLT magnetic bumper sticker looks great on the back of my old clunker!

(Quote)
right Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:08 pm

Ummm…

Y’all know that Volt is just another GM vaporware right?

(Quote)
Electric Vehicle Owner Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:09 pm

@Peter 92
“Prius was just too [xxx] fugly for me”

When did good aerodynamics start being considered fugly?

Yep, those optimized aerodynamic shapes just don’t change, either. Just look at the new Honda Insight. You must hate going to military museums and looking at the fugly advanced aerodynamic fighter jets.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Even the Volt considered aerodynamics going from the concept to the production skin.

(Quote)
noel park Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:11 pm

#88 N Riley:

Well, if we don’t do something about the negative trade balance, it is going to kill us, and that’s a fact. We will become a beggar nation within the lifetimes of our children, IMHO.

I guess we already are in some ways. I mean GM comes with its hat in its hand to us for loans, and then we go with our hat in our hand to China, et al, for loans to loan to GM. So how are we any better than GM, Chrysler, AIG, Citibank, B of A, et al, ad nauseaum?

What I say and $2 will get you a cup of coffee down at Starbucks. I know that. But Warren Buffet, Kevin Phillips, Chalmers Johnson, and many other respected economic thinkers have been warning us about this for years. Warren Buffet again just last week, right?

(Quote)
RB Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:28 pm

#73 DonC says, regarding the Volt batteries, “My guess is that there are some issues but no show stoppers.”
——————————–

I agree, and furthermore everyone has known all along that the battery was a huge, critical and previously unproven component. It is however just a little unsettling that it is mentioned now as “a risk”, even though that may be just restating the obvious.

(Quote)
Koz Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:29 pm

DonC, Smeltz, Statik, et al

Lutz = Marketing
Weber = Engineering

Elements of the design are seen in degrees of risk to the engineer. Lab testing doesn’t eliminate the “risk” (potentiality of problems) of field testing. I read Weber’s comments about the battery and risk being the same statement they’ve been making all along. They have to run tests over as much time as they can and they set a schedule that dictated a certain amount of time of testing that wouldn’t allow for production any sooner. The tests are scheduled to go until nearly the last minute but this obviously still won’t be full calendar testing. Therein lies the outstanding risk, regardless of how well their tests are going, they still have more testing and extrapolating to do.

What makes me a little nervous is that there is a whole lot of answering being done without really saying much of anything specific.

(Quote)
RB Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 6:31 pm

#75 LauraM says “I may be in the minority on this, but I’m willing to wait an extra year, or even two years if that’s what it takes for GM to get the car right. I’d rather see them miss the October 2010 deadline than sell the car before its ready.”
——————————————————–

Agreed. For sure I want my car to actually work right rather than be an endless series of problems, even if they are not-so-big ones.

(Quote)
CDAVIS Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:18 pm

______________________________________________________
Mr. Frank Weber,
The OPEC Kings are smiling at you.

Question: Can the OPEC Kings comfortably sit back and smile knowing that they can bank on the knowledge that the American’s have consistently exhibited a short term memory with regards to America indenturing itself to foreign sourced energy?

Answer: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hybrid17-2009mar17,0,6682265.story

The OPEC game: Take the price of oil high then allow it to drop fast when the American’s start working towards energy independence; OPEC is counting on the American’s continuing being too stupid to plan long term.

I’m tired of playing that game. My next car is an EREV.
______________________________________________________
Electric Cars + Nuclear Energy = American Energy Independence!
______________________________________________________

(Quote)
Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:20 pm

#92 Peter Says: I can’t wait any longer. Too much hype and no delivery. It went between the Prius and the Jetta TDI.
————————————————————————————–
What baffles me is this: GM announced the production date for the Volt over a year ago. It’s November 2010. It hasn’t changed. Why do people expect it sooner?

So if you need a car today, sure buy a Prius, Jetta TDI, or – just curious, what didn’t you like about the Honda Insight?

(Quote)
Inhaling in L.A. Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:25 pm

Will an iPod control panel and 400 lb li-ion battery “that works right” be what the people want in 4 years time? The answer is “probably not”. We can’t look at GM and the Volt as if they exist in a vacuum. The clock is ticking and the competition is gaining. There is a window of about 12-14 months before the big picture changes to include the availability of 200 mile range EV and 60 mpg hybrids. This truth can’t be wished away.

(Quote)
Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:30 pm

#85 CaptJackSparrow Says: When all is said and done, the Volt will come with a 110VAC 15A charger and/or 220VAC 30A charger.
————————————————————————————–
Actually, the Volt’s charger is 11 amps, and that’s for either 110v or 220v.

The math is pretty easy. We know that the 8kWh of available battery charges in 6.5 hours at 110v, or in 3.2 hours at 220v.

8000Wh / 6.5h = 1200 watts = 11 amps @ 110v
8000Wh / 3.2h = 2500 watts = 11 amps @ 220v

So either way, its 11 amps.

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Dan Petit Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:33 pm

Mr. Weber,
Could you make it so that we can permanently get our Volt software updates for free through the radio when visiting our salesperson to have coffee or to buy a can of wax for our Volt?
In software terms, something that would work so perfectly and simply is called “elegant”. There are several powerful reasons I am asking for this.
1. Software to run current ICE vehicles gets “learned-corrupted” when both an owner has installed a cheap/underdesigned/underspec’d battery and when that battery goes bad, and
2. The maintenance power supply to the software of all current PCM’s and especially their Transmission subprocessors are grossly compromised by reeeeealy cheeep batteries from discount sales outlets.
3. Most people, (and most certainly including 95% of all auto techs, especially the closed-minded ones whom think that all a battery does is start an ICE,) DO NOT properly and thoroughly diagnose the several causes of program-loss, even if they own a reprogramming piece of equipment.
This poses several powerful options for GM.
*Make reprogramming free to Voltec owners somehow.
*Set up advertising to relentlessly brag about this fact.
*Provide an audio download for owners and techs on all
Voltec basic safety advisories.
The reasons why I hope that permissions can be approved for these things is that after this Summer, it clearly appears that the need for shops to begin to need to reprogram more and more of the CAN (Controller Area Network) systems (after the first batteries begin to fail, and, the owner still believes that just anyone can install any-’ol cheeeeeep non-OEM quality battery, without a specific set of procedures (loosing software), I think it would be an outstanding advertising advantage that:
The Voltec vehicle gets free software upgrades as well as free software reflashing (surge-repairing) in any non-damaged processor or subprocessor in the event of software loss for any reason.
In the many shops I visit during the week, owners and techs are concerned regarding the cost of re-flashing software on behalf of their customers. It is all getting pretty out-of-hand and financially-unwieldy.
GM is changing the way the World works. GM can set the standard to protect its customers from any unnecessary repair cost.
In the ‘80′ s, those old computers would just reboot with backup software and run improperly until the exact problem was fixed.
That standard held techs to learning that they at-first did not rectify the one or several problems. But learn they did if they cared.
Nowadays, the customer leaves a shop, and, the owner/manager/tech generally does not always feel secure that the money was properly-earned, which they all (the ones I will teach) want to do very much.
If the updates and reflashing were somehow made at no cost, this would go extremely far in the economics of Voltec technology and happy customers for decades.
Dan Petit Austin TX

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Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 7:44 pm

#81 CaptJackSparrow Says: To me I see them engineering “Big Brother” into the design to keep track of mileage for the mileage tax.
————————————————————————————–
A mileage tax is a bad idea. Only Republicans are suggesting it. Obama is against it.

If anything, I would pay a tax on the amount of electricity I use to charge my car, and have that go toward road repairs. But even that is a can-of-worms. I can see many ways to avoid such a tax.

In the end, I suspect roads will be paid for by a combination of income tax, sales tax, electricity tax, and bio-fuel tax.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:19 pm

@Dave G 104

Hey, thanks for the correction. I’ll put that on my website. Much appreciated bro.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:20 pm

Chevy Volt Bar and Grill anyone????
http://jalopnik.com/5171867/volt-bar-debuts-years-ahead-of-chevy-volt

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 9:27 pm

@Dave G 106

“In the end, I suspect roads will be paid for by a combination of income tax, sales tax, electricity tax, and bio-fuel tax.”

I’ll get around that with my Solar panels and battery bank. I’ll use the $7500.
TOTAL SYSTEM COST: $13,545 – $7500 = $6045 out of pocket.
From: http://akeena.com/cm/solar%20network/Sacramento%20Solar%20Power.html?gclid=COKNiLi2q5kCFRwpawodlTH7Iw

p Can I get a “He|| yeah!!!”

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Gary Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 11:55 pm

92 Peter: Toyota & VW are doing so well because they are actually building cars people WANT. GM tried to tell us for the longest time we wanted the H2 Hummer. NO we didn’t.

Uh, YES, we did. The H2’s sales weren’t caused by GM mind control techniques. People bought Hummers because they went along with their 5,000 square foot homes in the suburbs and the associated opulent lifestyle.

New Smart cars are now gathering dust on dealer lots as well. Since their sales aren’t hot any more either, would it be appropriate to say that Mercedes was using the same evil mind control techniques as GM, telling us that we wanted the Smart car? Shame on you, Mercedes!

http://www.autoblog.com/2009/03/16/depositers-dropping-out-smart-fortwos-orphaned/

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Jeffhre Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 12:47 am

Tom Harwick “youse”

Your Jersey seems pretty fluent!

Noel Park

From the earlier post. Plural of Yawll. It’s not scientific nor likely supported by the International Linguistic Association, but it is kinda funny.

ALL YAWLL !

It’s often heard in the south. No doubt you’ve heard it before, but it’s one of those common regional idioms doesn’t really consciously register until it’s pointed out! Someone pointed it out to me and I didn’t guess it because yawll seems plural anyway.

GM yawll need to get that Volt built.

All yawll need to JGYourVW’sOTR’s.

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Marinko Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 12:56 am

#21 Dave G Says:Three reasons:
1) Because an NiMH battery that size probably wouldn’t have enough power to drive the 150hp electric motor.
2) Because NiMH has a much higher self-discharge (it discharges just sitting there).
3) Because Chevron owns key patents and won’t let NiMH be used in any vehicle that doesn’t use gas as it’s main fuel source.

Bottom line: Forget about NiMH – it ain’t gonna happen.
———————————————————————————–
But the NiMH worked fine for the EV1, Rav4 EV (many still running on original battery) and the Prius.

What is stopping GM getting a conventional parallel hybrid, adding an extra NiMH battery or two and combining it with a charger and plug. Gas/ethanol would still be the main fuel source keeping Cobasys (Chevron) happy, and you have the option of having your first 10 or 20 miles using electricity only.

The game changer here is the fact that it is plug-in. It doesn’t have to go the forty miles etc. Once it has the plug, then the rest will follow.

Given the volts leadtime, and no interim plug-in hybrid, or even a prisu-like hybrid from GM, I have the impression the Volt is nothing more than a PR campaign to get a government bailout. Sure GM may eventually come up with a Volt, but my guess it will be delayed, be produced in small quantities, be lease only until the programme is quitely shut down in favor of business as usual or GM go bankrupt – which ever happens first. I hope I’m wrong and live in hope, but the realist side of me doen’t see it happening – GM don’t have a good track record.

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NZDavid Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 7:23 am

Marinko @ 112. NiMH battries cannot be made without Lanthanum. From the following GM had no choice but to go with Lithium.

JL: Toyota’s research center for North America is right near me. So I see these guys in the drug store and meetings and ask why they are investing in Vietnam. They say the Vietnam government has assured them it wants this kind of mining to happen, and they need the material. They also said they’re very, very concerned about the Chinese cutting off the world from rare earths, which they’ve said they’re going to do. They’re raising the export tax, they’re reducing allocation, and there’s a prediction that Chinese domestic demand for rare earths will equal Chinese production in 2013, which means no more export.

Toyota knows it needs a safe, reliable source of rare earth metal. Now why don’t they come to the U.S., which in 1994 was the world’s largest producer of rare earths? Because it feels the regulatory environment here and the political environment is so anti-mining that there’s no point to it. In the U.S., we have a company called Molycorp, which was owned by Chevron until two months ago when it was sold to a group consisting of Resource Capital of Denver and Goldman Sachs, the financier, in New York.

In 1994, Molycorp’s mine in Mountain Pass, California, was producing 100% of the United States’ needs of rare earths and 34% of the world’s. It was shut down in ’94 because the Chinese came roaring into the market with low prices and put them out of business. Beyond that, there’s only one other rare earth source in North America—a private company called Thorium Energy, which has deposits of rare earths and the metal thorium in Lemhi Pass, Idaho. Thorium is looking to finance it or sell it to a developer. That’s it for North American rare earth sourcing.

Toyota has been so aggressive in sourcing the rare earth metals (lanthanum, in particular), no other car company in the world outside of Japan has an opportunity to go with the nickel metal hydride battery for use in a hybrid car. It’s not about how much there is—it’s about how much is produced. And the amount produced is now insufficient to satisfy the Chinese domestic market and Toyota alone. Japan’s demand for rare earths this year in the summer was projected to be 40,000 tons of total rare earths; however, China has allocated only 38,000 tons for the entire world this year.

http://www.stockhouse.com/columnists/2009/jan-1/9/rare-earth-technology-metals-face-severe-shortages

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statik Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 7:58 am

#102 Dave G said:

“What baffles me is this: GM announced the production date for the Volt over a year ago. It’s November 2010. It hasn’t changed. Why do people expect it sooner?”
————————————–
They are optimists, who can understand them? It is practically a foreign language.

(Quote)
Dave G Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 8:04 am

#112 Marinko Says: The game changer here is the fact that it is plug-in.
————————————————————————————–
No, the game changer is the 40-miles of all-electric range.

For example, with a typical driving pattern, assuming you only charge overnight:
Vehicle ……………… Gallons per year
Volt (EREV-40) …….. 37
Prius PHEV-10 …….. 182
Prius HEV …………… 228
30 MPG car ………… 380
20 MPG car ………… 570

So you can see that the Prius with 10 miles of electric boost doesn’t really save that much gas.

Bottom line: The plug isn’t a big deal. It’s the range that counts.

(Quote)
Dave G Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 8:12 am

#103 Inhaling in L.A. Says: There is a window of about 12-14 months before the big picture changes to include the availability of 200 mile range EV and 60 mpg hybrids.
————————————————————————————–
1) A 200 mile range EV still has range anxiety because you can’t fill it up in 5 minutes anwhere in the country. I will never buy a pure BEV.

2) A 60 mpg hybrid won’t save that much gas. With a typical driving pattern, assuming you only charge overnight:
Vehicle ……………… Gallons per year
Volt ………………….. 37
60 MPG car ………… 190
Prius ………………… 228
30 MPG car ………… 380
20 MPG car ………… 570

(Quote)
Peter Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 12:15 pm

The 2010 Insight wasn’t an option and still isn’t available until next month. No idea about availability in Canada.

But couple negatives…. Prius styling again. Look it…. the new Jetta is aerodynamic and yet VERY stylish…. almost CLS500 stylish. Smooth air flow but classy looking. Prius and new Insight look like rounded off shoe boxes, on the rear anyway. Also, too tall looking for their width.

Insight electrical battery capacity at 0.58kwh is small even compared to Prius 1.3kwh. You need more capacity for longer electric distance. Prius has advantage of much higher kW capacity electric drive. Insight is listed as only 10kW. That’s nothing. Any kind of regular acceleration will require gas engine boost.

The only hybrids of interest to me have to have at least 40-50kW electric motor output. If you can only do 40km/h on electric alone it’s useless for even city driving. A plug in PHEV should be able to run with city traffic on electric only in my opinion. The key here being unlimited mpg on electric only given your driving distance to work is less than the battery’s capacity.

Their CR-Z concept looks pretty sweet: http://www.hybridcars.com/vehicle/honda-cr-z.html hopefully it has a more powerful electric drivetrain.

As an aside the eBox has 150kW drivetrain. That’s why it hauls a$$.

(Quote)
Timaaayyy!!! Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 12:25 pm

Just saw a mule:

http://blueridgeblog.blogs.com/blue_ridge_blog/images/2007/05/08/mule_blog.jpg

(Quote)
noel park Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 12:41 pm

#110 Gary:

Somebody just told me yesterday that the Hummer lot down the road has just been cleared off, and that about 25 Smarts are parked there now, LMAO. Well the good news is that you can park 2 Smarts (3?) for every Hummer.

#111 jeffhre:

LOL.

(Quote)
djtripd Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 4:08 pm

What is it with the Volt? I really hope everyone here can see that the Volt is not the solution to clean transportation. So rather then putting emissions in the air GM and the other Hybrid makers have decided were better off dumping tons on batteries into our landfills. So how is this better? Has a single person on this site questioned GM about how all these batteries are going to be recycled? Has anyone thought about how much energy and pollution is created to manufacture and ship all these batteries to power the Volt? All this so you can get a car with the same build quality as a Malibu, at the price of a luxury car with a driving range a small scooter. People would be better off looking at the diesel TDI technology which doesn’t promise to solve the world problems but at least makes a little bit of difference (with a longer driving range) instead of producing waste in a different form.

This is why Detroit is going out of business, they have absolutely no vision or clue.

(Quote)
Peter Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 5:33 pm

The Smart wasn’t really successful anyhow. Here in B.C. Canada they were trying to sell them starting at $23-25k. That’s ridiculous given these are glorified go-karts. The high cost is likely more to do with where they are made and the freight costs.

The second reason they didn’t become popular is you could barely lug a passenger and two grocery bags around. Total fuel economy wasn’t any better on avg than the Golf IV TDI. Acceleration was mediocre, top speed low, and no real emissions controls. Going from memory but I don’t think they could pass current emissions regulations on ultra-low sulfur diesel.

If the car was $15k they would of sold a lot more. That’s why the City Golf here is doing so well. Initially they sold starting at about $16k. A “Canada-only” venture that was. Successful though.

Boggles the mind why VW doesn’t bring the smaller Polo TDI over here. Zippy power, 65-70mpg. Looks alright too.

Yes, the environmental foot print of a Prius compared to for instance a new TDI is pretty high. The energy it takes to produce the batteries, cables, drivetrain, plastics, etc. I read somewhere once it takes more energy to produce a Prius than an H2. Hard to believe. LOL

(Quote)
Bob G Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 9:17 pm

#120 djtripd Says, … I really hope everyone here can see that the Volt is not the solution to clean transportation. So rather then putting emissions in the air GM and the other Hybrid makers have decided were better off dumping tons on batteries into our landfills. … People would be better off looking at the diesel TDI technology … This is why Detroit is going out of business, they have absolutely no vision or clue.”

—————————————————-

Let me guess – You work for Volkswagen.

As has been discussed many times here, the batteries will be recycled. Even those that aren’t will only pollute once, not every time the car is driven. And when I drive my electric car, water flowing through a dam will propel me. Others will be propelled by sunlight, wind, or nuclear power. Even those getting electricity from plants burning fossil fuels will be cleaner and more efficient than an ICE car.

The TDI is a nice vision for today, but the Volt is a much cleaner and more efficient vision for the future.

(Quote)
Bob G Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 9:21 pm

#104 Dave G Says, “… The math is pretty easy. We know that the 8kWh of available battery charges in 6.5 hours at 110v, or in 3.2 hours at 220v.

8000Wh / 6.5h = 1200 watts = 11 amps @ 110v
8000Wh / 3.2h = 2500 watts = 11 amps @ 220v

So either way, its 11 amps.”
———————————————————

Your math doesn’t take into account losses in the charger and battery. To get 8KWh stored in the battery, you’ll need to pull more out of the wall. I think that will push the current up to more like 12.5 A.

After you consider the loose tolerances in commercial circuit breakers and the fact that there may be other small loads on the circuit, I doubt if you’d want to push a 15 amp residential circuit more than that (or you’ll have trouble with circuit the breaker tripping).

Hopefully, the charger will allow those of us with 20 amp service in our garage to recharge more quickly.

(Quote)
djtripd Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 1:23 am

#122 Bob G Says: “Let me guess – You work for Volkswagen.
As has been discussed many times here, the batteries will be recycled. Even those that aren’t will only pollute once, not every time the car is driven. And when I drive my electric car, water flowing through a dam will propel me. Others will be propelled by sunlight, wind, or nuclear power. Even those getting electricity from plants burning fossil fuels will be cleaner and more efficient than an ICE car.
The TDI is a nice vision for today, but the Volt is a much cleaner and more efficient vision for the future.”

I actually don’t work for VW, sorry to disappoint. At the same time you didn’t really provide any insight on how, where, by who these millions of batteries are going to be recycled. You also failed to explain how you don’t see the manufacturing, shipping and installation of these batteries causing any harm on the environment. You should research into the actual environmental impact the production of the Toyota Prius causes, you would be surprised. This car is taking some of the toxins out of the air but has the potential of clogging our landfills full of dangerously poisonous batteries. So in reality we’re trading one environmental disaster for another. This tends to defeat the whole purpose of attempting to create a greener car. Lastly all these cars will need power to run, coal burns dirty and puts toxins in the air and nuclear power doesn’t cause damage to the air but you can only dump barrels of toxic waste into the earth for so long before something horrible happens.

I agree, the TDI diesel technology is a good solution for today but as of right now I don’t see an answer for the future, I just know the Volt isn’t it. Just because what come out of the Volt appears to be clean doesn’t mean that the power you use from your wall socket is, I hope you take this into consideration.

(Quote)
Herm Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 8:19 am

I may be weird in the head, but I LIKE the looks of the Prius, Insight and Volt… AND the Prius has plenty of power, even with two 300lb passengers in it

I worry about the VW reliability track record compared to Toyota.

I even like the looks of that Mercedes fish shaped concept car that came out a few years ago.

http://news.mongabay.com/2005/0710-DaimlerChrysler.html

(Quote)
Herm Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 8:35 am

The Lithium manganese cells are usually 1C recharge cells so by definition no less than 1 hr charge times.. but most of the heat produced in lithium cells happens when charging the last little bit of capacity into the battery or discharging the last little bit of capacity. So if you did only partial recharges (and considering that the Volt cools its batteries) then perhaps short charge times under 1hr are possible.

The advantage of the A123 cells is that they simply do not heat up as much as regular cells, thus allowing insane recharge times and prolonging battery life if used in normal conditions. Their other advantage is their tolerance for overcharges, a big no-no with other lithium cells.

But I agree with you, its not practical or necessary to fast charge a Volt.

…………………………………..

#84
Dave G Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 3:07 pm

The Volt’s battery pack will charge much faster then 3 hours, probably as fast as 30-45 minutes without any increased wear on the battery

(Quote)
Herm Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 8:52 am

Actually recharging Lithium cells is nearly 100% efficient, that drops as you try to cram the last little bit of energy in as they reach full charge. Nimh are usually around 80% efficient during charge/discharge.

A modern transformerless charger can be over 90% efficient. The associated wire and plug will probably be heavier than the charger in the Volt. There is no reason that future long range electric cars need an on-board high power charger, that charger can be left at the fast charging station.

……………………………………………..
#123 Bob G Says:
March 18th, 2009 at 9:21 pm

Your math doesn’t take into account losses in the charger and battery. To get 8KWh stored in the battery, you’ll need to pull more out of the wall. I think that will push the current up to more like 12.5 A.

(Quote)
noel park Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 10:17 am

#125 Herm:

I agree.

(Quote)
A. Z. K. Sanders Says:
March 22nd, 2009 at 11:45 am

#112 Marinko says the Volt could be improved by redesigning it as a conventional parallel hybrid, “adding an extra NiMH battery or two…” It will take much more to get noticeable benefit.

This remark suggests that even among knowledgeable people, there is confusion about what the difference is and what the advantages are between a Prius/Insight hybrid (”parallel hybrid”) and a Volt (”series” or “extended range electric car”).

A Prius/Insight hybrid should more descriptively be called a “battery-assisted gasoline engine car”. Or “smooth-driving efficiency-improved car”. Its advantage is a nice smooth feel, especially at low speeds. Also efficiency increased to 40 to 50 mpg. Part of this is due to smaller size and lower aerodynamic “drag”. The rest of the efficiency gain is due to a somewhat larger battery enabling sophisticated electrical controls and software. The larger battery cuts in automatically to improve acceleration, permitting a smaller, more efficient engine to be used. It also enables regenerative braking and automatic engine turn-off in traffic, all improving efficiency. These are important achievements; and the relatively small battery adds little cost, permitting a lower selling price.

The Volt has all the above advantages. However, in addition, it has one additional huge advantage of its own. Because it has a relatively large battery, the 80% of drivers who drive less than 40 mile daily can operate it without using gasoline after it has been plugged in overnight. In contrast, a Prius/Insight hybrid (because of its tiny battery) can be operated without gasoline for only a mile; not worth mentioning. A hybrid’s one advantage over the Volt is a lower cost (due to the small battery) and therefore lower selling price.

For the owner, the Volt’s advantage is lower operating expense. For the 80% of drivers traveling less than 40 miles daily, there is no gasoline expenditure at all. For a driver traveling, say, 80 miles daily (assuming 40 mpg for the second 40 miles to make the arithmetic easy), the daily cost is only one gallon of gasoline. (The cost of plug-in electricity off the grid is usually so cheap it may be ignored.) Each driver must decide for himself whether the higher initial cost is sufficiently rapidly recovered from his gasoline savings. It depends on the higher car price, gasoline price at the time and number of miles he drives.

For the nation, there are several advantages of the extreme gasoline-saving of the Volt. There is freedom from dependence on unreliable, even hostile, oil-exporting foreign sources. Second, there is improvement of our unfavorable balance of trade; eliminating outflow of up to a trillion dollars yearly (depending on oil price, which long-term will surely go up) and which makes us poorer and oil-exporting nations richer. Third, there is lower pollution, even from coal-burning power plants, which, being fewer and larger, lend them selves to better regulation. Fourth, there is reduction of climate change for the same reason.

However, implicit in the whole program is the substitution of non-polluting renewable solar energy sources for fossil fuels. The Mohave desert is currently being developed based on huge contracts from California utility companies to build solar plants.

The final piece of the puzzle is improvement of the national transmission grid to bring power from the desert to the distant load centers. This can be treated as a public work, like the interstate highway system and is especially welcome at this time for economic stimulation.

(Quote)

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