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GM VP Jon Lauckner on Current Chevy Volt Production Status

February 13th, 2009 | Posted in: General

I recently had the chance to speak to Jon Lauckner. He co-conceived the Volt with Bob Lutz and is GM’s VP of global program management.

What is the current state of mule development?
Frankly, its complete. We’ve built all of the cars that we intended to, around 33 or 35, and we are done with the hardware building phase. The cars have all been delivered to the Milford proving grounds and testing and development is ongoing.

What we learn from that particular hardware phase will be used for the hardware phase that is upcoming. Around the middle of this year we’ll build our integration cars which not only feature the drivetrain components of the Chevy Volt which we’ve had in the mule cars. Those mule cars were built in Cruze-bodies. Our integration cars are where we integrate all of the pieces together whether they’re drivetrain related or the interior and exterior the car altogether in a series of prototypes. We’ll probably have the first ones completed when it gets warm here next summer.

These will look like Volts?
Yes they will be built off of prototype tools. Those will be tested for a short period of time and then we move to the plant. Then we’ll build our product and process validation vehicles. Those will be built in the plant, on the line using the real assembly documents and all the correct tools in a true production setting. Now it will be at a very low volume to start with but that is the final phase. You’re moving from the prototype production into the high volume production facility and getting that ramped up for start of production.

And that low level production will be at the Detroit-Hamtramck plant?
Correct. And when I say low volume production, keep in mind that’s a high volume plant, so the line rate when its running full production runs very high. We carve out some space in that line by leaving some empty slots and then we put a car in there and we send that down the line and people start to develop the skill to assemble that entire vehicle.

And that will start late in 2009?
No that starts in the beginning of 2010. Sometime around the first or second quarter.

Do you have some retooling to do now in D-HAM?
Sure we need to have all the machinery and equipment in place to build the Volt before we start our production and process validation vehicles. We have to go into that plant and take out equipment and bring in new equipment because its a different car than those that are built there to day. We have to reconfigure all the equipment that’s in the plant so we can build the Volt.

Are you still going to build others cars at that plant alongside the Volts?
I believe that’s still the plan but we continue to still refine what we’re going to do with our manufacturing footprint as we see how the volumes progress. So the plan is we’re still going to have another product or so in that plant, but I cant tell you that for sure.

If you were just building Volts there, what would that plants total annual production capacity be?
Well over 200,000 units.

So if the world demands over 200,000 Volts annually you’ll able to do it?
We would be able to do it in that facility or it may make more sense to put the Volt in another facility. We have to see when we get there exactly what makes the most amount of sense.

Posted by: Lyle

119 Responses to “GM VP Jon Lauckner on Current Chevy Volt Production Status”

Rashiid Amul Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:03 am

One, the fact that the plant can handle 200,000 Volts is encouraging. I like how they are keeping their options open though.

First or second quarter 2010 will be production time.
If first quarter, seems that July 4th 2010 can be a good date as some have suggested here.

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Rashiid Amul Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:10 am

I read that wrong. Not full production in first or second quarter. Sorry about that.

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koz Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:17 am

Very well done. Direct questions and reasonably direct answers. The only other item I would have liked to here the answer to along this line of questioning is: how long he currently expects the plant conversion for Volt assembly to take and if that process has started in any meaningful way?

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Jim I Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:18 am

SHOW ME THE BULLDOZERS!!!!

When will GM start working on the assembly plant for the Volt and even more importantly, for the battery packs????

This does not happen overnight, so you would think they should have workers in there now or very soon….

Go GM! Go GM Volt Team!

NPNS

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RB Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:30 am

Good questions, and informative answers. To this time it appears that what has been done is a lot of development but not much toward production, but that can change quickly. It will have to.

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john1701a Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:35 am

February 17, this coming Tuesday, bailout plans part-2 must be submitted.

What kind of production commitment will be made for Volt, especially in the light of how poor Two-Mode sales have been?

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RB Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:41 am

Mr Lauckner says of the mules The cars have all been delivered to the Milford proving grounds and testing and development is ongoing.
——————————————————

Reading this sentence cautiously, one realizes that what he is saying is that mule testing is now underway (getting underway?). There is not yet a single prototype (all the parts together in the same car). That means that there are a lot of things that still will go wrong, have to be fixed, and have to be tested again. May be fast, or it may take a while. We want the Volt to actually work.

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Gsned57 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:50 am

It’s Feb 09 already. It seems incredible to me that they’ll go from 35 advanced mules to limited (10,000) production in 18 months. I guess it’s feasible but that is a very quick pace. Good luck to them because if they start slipping to the right they’re gonna loose they’re first to market advantage with every other manufacturer planning for 2011 and 2012.

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CDAVIS Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:59 am

______________________________________________________
Great interview Lyle…thanks!
______________________________________________________
Electric Cars + Nuclear Power = American Energy Independence!
______________________________________________________

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Dave B Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:20 am

I’ll bet with all this knowledge about production, estimates, etc., GM has a GUESS on price. So what’s’ the story there: how much is this thing going to cost?

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k-dawg Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:27 am

So “when it gets warm” here in Michigan can be many different things. The earliest i expect to see an “integration” (prototype) Volt is maybe end of April, but more realistically, its probably start of June.

I just want to see real-world AER #’s on the actual car with all of its pieces (including the low rolling resistance tires).

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RB Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:28 am

#10 Dave B says
I’ll bet with all this knowledge about production, estimates, etc., GM has a GUESS on price. So what’s’ the story there: how much is this thing going to cost?
——————————————————

How much it will cost GM to build has no doubt been accurately predicted by those within, but what the price will be to customers is an entirely different matter. The price to us will be set initially to what GM thinks is the right price to sell all 10,000 in the initial model run, and that will be tested by market demand. GM’s nominal price will not be the cost of production plus some percentage. GM will use the same plan for the Volt that is used for the Converj, where hoped-for markup will be much larger, or the same plan that is used for tickets to the Super Bowl. That is, the price will be come from supply and demand, not cost of production.

Of course, if the cost of production is higher than the market price, they will not be making them for very long. On the other hand, if the cost of production is a lot lower, GM will build a huge number. After all, what GM controls directly is the number made, not the price for which they can be sold.

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BillR1 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:29 am

Sounds pretty much like the plan that they have always presented.

So now they have 35 mules driving around the proving grounds, testing the drivetrain, battery pack, ICE integration, cold start, hot starts, etc. This should prove out the basic chassis and propulsion system.

By summer they will have integration vehicles that take the already tested components from the mules, and combine them with the interior and body panels for the Volt. Now they can test AC, heating, wipers, seats, and a whole slew of other gadgets and accessories. Also, they can test the car’s performance with its more aerodynamic body.

After these tests are complete, its time to test the assembly process, so they build the validation vehicles.

I don’t know how many here have seen an auto assembly plant, but GM still has tours at the Corvette assembly plant in Bowling Green, KY. When you see the size of the plant and the moving assembly line, (chassis and body are built separately and the two moving conveyors bring them together), you realize how this assembly line cannot be designed and built in a matter of weeks. Thousands of parts coming together, and each vehicle being built with its own set of options, interior color, exterior color, etc. Truly a fascinating process.

The Detroit Hamtramck plant currently makes the Buick Lucerne and the Cadillac DTS. It has won awards for its environmental initiatives.

http://gmdynamic.com/company/gmability/environment/plants/facility_db/environmental.php?fID=114

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Doug Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:31 am

@Gsned57

Unless said competitors were optimistic as well.

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Lunoir Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:33 am

I see things are getting forward. Hope the 17th of this month will bring some good news (commitment) I can see GM having a firm plan here and be able to show/prove that they are following it is very important in these days. From what I understand the plant didn’t start retooling yet (still producing other type of cars) But they seem too what tools to put there. Like I read in a previous post, how long does it takes to retool once you have the shopping list of all the tools?

NPNS!

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RB Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:41 am

#13 BillR1 says
By summer they will integration vehicles that take the already tested components from the mules, and combine them with the interior and body panels for the Volt. Now they can test AC, heating, wipers, seats, and a whole slew of other gadgets and accessories. Also, they can test the car with its more aerodynamic body.
After these tests are complete, its time to test the assembly process, so they build the validation vehicles.
————————————————————-

Well yes, and it sounds so innocent when described that way, test carefully, see that it works, and then move on to the next step. True, in an ideal world everything works great the first time it is tested. That also can be true, almost, for a car that is a small step from one already in production.

In a new kind of car, every step is filled with tests that may and sometimes will have negative outcomes —> the thing just does not work the way it should, or more likely, does not work well enough. Then somebody has to figure out what to do about it. Maybe a small step back, but maybe “back to the drawing board.” Perhaps they are hoping that nothing major shows up. Then again, often in planning stages, hope outweighs memory.

Yes, I agree that a high-volume assembly plant is awesome. It works great when the product has been well designed and details verified. An assembly line is however not an atmosphere that allows much opportunity for the correction of design problems, so the Volt needs not to have any, once it gets to that stage.

That is, I think they are cutting it close. Maybe everything will work out, and I hope it does. But there is a lot of optimism built into Mr Lauckner’s schedule.

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Dave G Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:44 am

#4 Jim I Says: “SHOW ME THE BULLDOZERS!!!! When will GM start working on the assembly plant for the Volt and even more importantly, for the battery packs????”
————————————————————————————–
I don’t believe there will be any bulldozers. They are using the existing Detroit-Hamtramck assembly line. GM said the battery assembly plant will be converted from an existing manufacturing facility. There are lots of empty buildings around Detroit these days.

GM has delayed the new 1.4L engine plant, and will be initially building these engines in the GM plant in Austria. It also appears GM is reconsidering the idea of constructing a new engine plant building, and may just convert an existing facility to build these engines instead.

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:52 am

Wow, there is so much there. Mostly in a ‘paint it rosey’ kind of way…but there it is. Nice Interview.

I’ll do a little translation:
===============================
What is the current state of mule development?
—”We are done, we were going to pump out 2 a week, giving us over 50 by December…but we ran out of money and everyone stopped working in November….so we only got done, what we got done. We got done what we intended to…after we reset the bar for ourselves. Huzzah! Misson accomplished!”

Will these look like Volts?
–”Yes, but, but, but. Now I’m not going to say a lot of random stuff that doesn’t really allow anyone to understand anything. Ok, I’ll nutshell it for you, not at first or by summer, I know I just intimated the ‘middle of the year’ a second ago, but I heard your question differently than you intended. You remember the Camaro? We are doing it like that, you remember how that turned out right? wink, wink”

And that low level production will be at the Detroit-Hamtramck plant?
–”Yes…and ‘woohoo’ Lyle, thanks for the easy one that I can answer straight up”

And that will start late in 2009?
–”FFS Lyle! How the heck am I going to answer this? Short and sweet…maybe I’ll say it quick–”beginning 2010,” now don’t listen to this part, first or second quarter…so not really so much beginning 201 like I just said”
Interior monolgue: Please, please, no one figure out that the second quarter runs to the start of July and we are shooting for production in November

Do you have some retooling to do now in D-HAM?
“Dude…Lyle. You are KILLING me. We haven’t built jack-crap on this ‘line’ since, er..well, the Bonneville. It is a complete dump in there, I mean, it looks like a bomb went off. We got to get a bulldozer in there practically. Once we do that (whenever), we have to built a whole new set of tools…I’m so tired thinking about, I’m going to have a little rest on your lap while you think of another question”

If you were just building Volts there, what would that plants total annual production capacity be?
“Sweetness. Another opportunity for subterfuge. The entire plant capacity is 200,000.”
Interior monologue: Those dopes will never put together there is 3 lines in there and we are only tooling up one line, hehe. They probably don’t even know that one of the lines are still active…or that capacity for anyline has rarely ever exceeded 60K.

So if the world demands over 200,000 Volts annually you’ll able to do it?
“Son of a Bee-Sting Lyle! Didn’t you just see me doing my GM executive dance there? That was good stuff you just wasted! I guess we ‘could’ do it there…or wherever, another facility maybe like in Europe 5 years from now …or we could do it on the moon with taxpayers money, now that would be cool.”
———–

/good morning…and a fine day it is

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Rashiid Amul Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:58 am

Statik, that was hilarious. Great sarcasm in there.

Now step aside and wait for someone to get all offended by what you said.

Oh. And good morning to you as well.

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ziv Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 9:24 am

So we will be hearing about full on Volt prototypes, not Cruze mules, by April/May of 09 and limited production of test type cars from the line by June of 10? That would be good news. If there is a GM by next year they might be able to deliver 500 cars a month by November/December of 2010, hopefully up to 5,000 within a year of that. And then, I hope, there will be a flood of EREV’s, PHEV10’s and BEV’s so that we can begin to reduce the amount of oil we import and stop our financing the antics of Chaves, Putin, Saud and Ahmadinejad!
$700,000,000,000 a year is sent overseas for oil, keeping a little of that at home will be huge. (The weird thing is that if we do begin to reduce oil imports, it may actually impact the world market enough to reduce oil prices, which would mean that the Volt would have less of an edge over ICE automobiles, but I imagine China will gobble up whatever we don’t buy and the price of gasoline will probably be around $4-$5 gallon by 2011 when the Volt arrives in significant numbers.)
Just build the car!

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john1701a Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 9:25 am

It seems incredible to me that they’ll go from 35 advanced mules to limited (10,000) production in 18 months.
_________________________

Study history. If GM keeps focus and commits, it’s can be done. After all, that’s how Prius came about.

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 9:26 am

#!9 Rashiid Amul said:

Statik, that was hilarious. Great sarcasm in there.
Now step aside and wait for someone to get all offended by what you said.

Oh. And good morning to you as well.
=======================

Thanks Rashiid. Just making sure Lyle gets lots of comments. Hopefully, he gets .0001 cents per ad hit, lol.

I was being sarcastic, but I pretty confident that my translation is accurate. I don’t see anything in the original text that can be translated as being ‘on time,’ or good news. If he was talking to Lyle while standing on carpet, I’m pretty sure there would be big wear spot now where he was dancing.

It is getting comical now, I mean we were going to get a protype at the end of 2007 at first, lol. Then mid 2008 (remember the ‘prototypes very soon’ from Wags at the annual meeting?) Then it was year’s end. Now it is ‘middle of the year’ 2009?

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TED in Fort Myers Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 9:33 am

Static the eternal pessimist. I guess we will find out soon enough how far off you are. I enjoyed your post all the same.
Take Care,
TED

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John S. Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 9:34 am

Perhaps Statik has finally found the right combination of Meds. Humor this early in the morning? I think I need to get another cup of coffee.

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TALLPALL Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 9:40 am

*** 655 Day’s to go ***

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k-dawg Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 9:50 am

@12 RB

I think the cost also has to factory in the warranty items (esp the battery), and the likelyhood of replacement, not just the cost of production.

I think GM would continue to sell the Volt at or below cost just to get the CARB credits and bring their fleet #’s down. Also, by getting their foot in the door early, they are driving out competition.

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Schmeltz Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 9:51 am

I guess I’m going to choose to view this interview as a glass half-full sort of thing. Sure it would be great to hear and see much more progress here, but considering the rain that has been coming down lately on these Auto Companies, it is at the very least encouraging to hear they didn’t scrap the whole Volt project altogether. The temptation probably crosses their minds a couple times a day when they look at their own stock price. But instead they have continued to persevere with this…and for that I’m grateful.

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k-dawg Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 9:55 am

#13 BillR1
I don’t know how many here have seen an auto assembly plant, but GM still has tours at the Corvette assembly plant in Bowling Green, KY. When you see the size of the plant and the moving assembly line, (chassis and body are built separately and the two moving conveyors bring them together), you realize how this assembly line cannot be designed and built in a matter of weeks. Thousands of parts coming together, and each vehicle being built with its own set of options, interior color, exterior color, etc. Truly a fascinating process.
=================

I did the robot cell in that plant for the Corvette’s exhaust system. Just designing, building, and testing that cell took 3 months. I’m sure GM is working hard on the retooling design of the Hamtramk plant. But i think they need to test their tooling & assembly processes first. After that its just conveyors and robots moving stuff around.

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Dave G Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:06 am

#18 statik Says: “Will these look like Volts?
–”Yes, but, but, but. Now I’m not going to say a lot of random stuff that doesn’t really allow anyone to understand anything.”
————————————————————————————–
I actually understood what he was saying. Maybe my Geek-Chic dial is set to G this morning…

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KUD Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:15 am

# 9
CDAVIS
______________________________________________________
Electric Cars + Nuclear Power = American Energy Independence!
______________________________________________________

Make that:
______________________________________________________
Electric Cars + Solar Panels = MY Energy Independence!
______________________________________________________

And yes Lyle that was a great Interview!

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Cautious Fan Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:16 am

The 17th is approaching Statik. I hope you didn’t waste all you vitriol.

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old man Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:17 am

I think the time frame is do able. In all probability there is ongoing work in the design and manufacturing processes of the fixturing [items dedicated to one particular part] With the use of cad-cam the computer will nearly prove out the design and manufacturing processes of both the fixtures and the component be held and marry the two together prior to any material being cut. Final tweeking will still be needed. The actual movement of components will be under cnc [computer numerical control] Reprogram the conveyors and robots [most likely different grippers or welding tips on each robot]
In other words, I think an existing line will be used and as numbers ramp up a line will be set up for the exact requirementw of the Volt.

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Ron Hall Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:29 am

Don’t know what you guys are worried about; the actual tooling of the plant can be done in the time frame given. My brother works at Ford on the team that goes into plants to set up the tooling and get the production rate ramped up. His stints are usually 9 months to 15 months. 15 months if there is a major retooling, much like what the Volt will require. GM has always said November, 2010, but nobody believes them. Some think they can and should do it quicker, some think they cannot make that date. The engineering will be done and the production will begin on time. The only question is the financial heath of GM. If the money isn’t available to do it, then they will need to delay programs, it is that simple. Now, if somebody said something 1 year ago that was not true because of the financial crisis that was not even perceived at the time it was spoken, does it hurt the credibility of GM ? I think hindsight is 20/20, but much like radio talk show hosts, doing and created is much harder then sitting back and criticizing. Some people have the NADS to create, and some don’t. There I said my piece.

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DonC Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:30 am

statik – I can see you’d score a lot of interviews! Ba ha ha ha ha ha!

I thought he gave very specific answers. If he wanted to dance around things you’d get different answers. For example, Lyle asked him if the low level production would start in late 2009. If he’s dancing he says “roughly”. Perfectly accurate but misleading. Instead he said, “no, first or second quarter 2010″. Now I’m sure they have a specific date but this is more than acceptable detail.

I also don’t think at this point that money is an issue for the Volt because it’s the one thing they know gives them maximum traction. (Other than the 3.5M jobs — ) Do you remember the interview with the guy from pre-production from last December? He said that he was worried about his job because other than the Volt they had nothing in the pipeline. Not good for him but it does give a good idea that the Volt is a priority.

Let’s give them at least the benefit of the doubt. It seems to me that if you wanted to be critical about EV production claims you have a lot better targets than GM. Has anyone hit a announcement target? Tesla? Two years late and $40K more? Aptera? One year late, maybe, and who knows how much more. Phoenix Motorcars? Fisker? You can go on and on. The Volt is a very complicated vehicle, far more complicated than a BEV. Cutting GM some slack is warranted, but, if you don’t want to do that, at least don’t cross the line separating skepticism from sarcasm.

This is not to say your post wasn’t funny. It was. It just struck me as a wee bit too personally directed at a guy just trying to give out some information we’ve asked for. This is not quite the same as taking aim at Maximum Bob.

PS: This is coming off more critical than intended. I understand you’re just trying to have some fun during the dark and cold Canadian winter.

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:42 am

#34 DonC said:

statik – I can see you’d score a lot of interviews! Ba ha ha ha ha ha!

PS: This is coming off more critical than intended. I understand you’re just trying to have some fun during the dark and cold Canadian winter
————————
I know. Sometimes once you get going…lol.

Side note: If was interviewing I wouldn’t talk like that…wouldn’t get me very far, or in the door…I’d have to use a different name too, hehe.

I’m not going after him personally, he has a job to do…and he is doing it just they way they paid him to do it (and probably the same way I would if I was in his situation). I was more trying to make light of the corporate culture at GM…and the reseting of the bar.

/have a good one my friend

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ROBERT M. SPERRY Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 11:00 am

We are all eager to know what the actual price will be, but I don’t think that even GM knows as yet. Next month they are supposed to go back before Congress for more money and to show what their plans are for the future. a major part of that is getting concessions from the unions on things like wages competetive with the non-union foreign shops. If they can work that out, the Volt price will drop considerably. However, whether or not they can do that remains to be seen. Also, I am sure that there are a lot of other factors that are still unsettled. Nevertheless, I keep asking “How Much?”.

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Gary Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 11:27 am

18 Statik, thanks for the daily words of negativity, disdain, and damnation… NOT!

P.S. Anybody, how do you do an eye rolling emoticon?

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RB Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 11:30 am

#36 Robert M Sperry said of labor costs If they can work that out, the Volt price will drop considerably.
——————————————————————-

The main factor controlling the price to us will be the demand that GM projects from interest in the car at the time it is introduced. One might call that taking the temperature of the public, or at least the temperature of the part of the public who would consider buying. They will charge all they can to still sell 10,000 in the first year. It is only sensible, but it won’t be affected by labor cost.

What will be affected by labor cost is GM’s margin on the Volt, thinking of margin as the amount the customer pays minus what it costs to assemble the car and pay for the components in a production run of 10K. That margin is important to future planning at GM, but again it will not directly affect the price to us.

I know how tempting it is to think of the cost to the customer as the cost to build it plus 20 percent, but it doesn’t work that way.

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k-dawg Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 11:33 am

Toyota is buying out its workers now…
Hey.. join the club!
http://www.indystar.com/article/20090213/BUSINESS/90212049

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 11:48 am

#36 Robert M Sperry said of labor costs If they can work that out, the Volt price will drop considerably.

…and RB in #37
============================

The bulk of GM’s inability to compete and make money is its debtload (besides the beached-whale lineup)…and their future commitments as well of course.

They are trying to get the bondholders to swallow 30 cents on the dollar (by tuesday–so ridiculous)…but they are not even going to consider that. Word is they are looking for some kind of gov’t intervention debt swap, in 50 cents/dollar range

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/752ab684-f951-11dd-90c1-000077b07658.html?referrer_id=yahoofinance&ft_ref=yahoo1&segid=03058&nclick_check=1

All the labor combined only adds up to around $1,500-2,000/car, pretty hard to make a significant impact to the bottom line by shaving off even $10/hour to bring them at par with ‘foreign shops’–thats translates to maybe $300 more margin.

/GM pays north of 3 billion (and rising) just to service their debt.

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Tall Pete Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 11:51 am

Statik @18

Quite funny I must say. I had a blast.

Seriously, I tend to believe that when things are going wrong, they don’t go as wrong as it seems. Same thing when things are going right – they are not as bright as it seems.

For instance : Toyota. A year ago, they were on top of the game. Today, they are in the red for the first time in their history.

GM ? It seems they are almost dead. But in the words of Mark Twain, “The reports of GM death are greatly exaggerated”. As long as the Obama administration don’t want them to die, there is hope.

Good observation about the production capacities though. It will not be so easy to ramp up the production fast.

Anyway, time will tell.

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Campy Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 12:00 pm

Ahh that translation was beautiful Statik. We’re going to expect this more often now..

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George in Berkeley Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 12:09 pm

I thought the interview was pretty candid. Sure, there was some doublespeak in there but that comes with the territory. Lyle’s worked hard to get great access to the execs at GM and for that I’m grateful. I feel like an insider which is more than I can say for just about every other company I can think of.

The takeaway is that sometime in 2010 we’ll be able to buy a Volt and take a huge step forward toward national energy independence. It’s mindblowing. Go GM!

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Anthony BC Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 12:12 pm

That’s why Lyle hasn’t had his ride in the VOLT, Waggoner keeps driving it around town!

But once GM has built the VOLT, Lyle, you’ll get your ride! It may be days, weeks, or months, but can not be over 2 years or they’ll miss their deadline, oops!

GO EV !

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Bryce Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 12:17 pm

There is just no way they will hit the 2010 deadline.

In fact: If anyone on this board sees a Volt in their garage before 2011 I will publically post a video of me eating my hat.

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unni Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 12:19 pm

When they go for crash tests ?

Another is a question on the range extender:

Is range extender is a plugin-able box some where in the boot which has a standard interface to battery and power circuit ( like a good styled gen set like rectangular box similar computers power supply ) . So that it will be also modular and upgradeable and if battery technology does wonders it can be used as a extra space for battery pack.

Another book question: why we need 150 hp motor , the do it yourself book has a 37/22 hp motors and claims top speed of 100 mph.

Another question is why flextreme is not herd at all. The coefficient of drag is 0.07 fr air foil shape and flextreme was looking similar – means that shape may be better in air characteristics and its a good utility shape.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 12:31 pm

Just build my Volt DANGIT!

I’ll take my Volt NO Generator, NO ICE, shaken not stirred…

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john1701a Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 12:35 pm

There is just no way they will hit the 2010 deadline.
___________________________

Of course they will, just like Two-Mode.

The catch is, so few will be delivered that the deadline really won’t equate to much… hence the need for commitment.

How will Volt be positioned to compete with a plug-in Prius and plug-in Escape/Fusion and plug-in Vue?

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Lektriktadpole Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 12:36 pm

I don’t know about that. Maybe Statik is the real reason Lyle hasn’t gotten his test ride. There are times that I have had a tendency to get distemper over Statik’s negativism, but then I remember his track record for accuracy. Let’s hope that he got carried away with his prose today and that his usual prescience is not for today.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 12:44 pm

@unni 46
“Is range extender is a plugin-able box some where in the boot which has a standard interface to battery and power circuit ( like a good styled gen set like rectangular box similar computers power supply ) . So that it will be also modular and upgradeable and if battery technology does wonders it can be used as a extra space for battery pack.”

The Generator/Motor set will take up 85% of the underhood area space. One would hypothesize that the only wiring would be two big fat poer cables from the generator output would go to a “Power Conditioning” box before it is direcet to either the battery and/or the Motor controller box. There will be other wiring for starting the ICE and RPM control and sensors.
I think Dave G has a pretty good graphical illustration of this. Dave G can you post again. Maybe we should have a “Sticky” on some stuff like this.

“Another book question: why we need 150 hp motor , the do it yourself book has a 37/22 hp motors and claims top speed of 100 mph.”

Don’t look too much into those numbers they give, Those are “Hypermiling” numbers or theoretical. You’ll be lucky to achieve 65% of that. Also, we need the 150HP to get you up the hills on freeways like the “Grape Vine” in southern California. There’s a minimum slope grade they need to meet to make this car viable to customers. Besides, here in the US big HP and Torque is a big selling point. Why do you think there are theses things cal “Muscle Cars” here in the US.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 12:58 pm

@john1701a 48

“How will Volt be positioned to compete with a plug-in Prius and plug-in Escape/Fusion and plug-in Vue?”

Price wise? Maaaan….it’s going to be tough. Those cars, including the new Insight are going to be less than the Volt. This is going to only be decided when it comes out.

My choice, if all the cars were available now as well as the Volt @ $35,000.00, I would still opt for the Volt. Simply because I know I will always be able to run without the ICE for my entire week of commute. I can’t say that for the other choices.

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carcus1 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:00 pm

What if ……

What if the continual delays are because the product isn’t meeting advertised specifications? Anyone consider that?

What if the real world AER in something other than ideal conditions is only 25 miles?

What if the real world mpg after customer depletion is only 32 mpg?

What if over the course of a month’s typical driving, this car uses more fuel than a hymotion conversion Prius?

What if the “pikes peak hill climb/ accelerate hard 4 times” performance is considerably more anemic than anticipated?

It’s well past time for independent verification of the volt mule’s performance before any more of my tax dollars get funneled into this.

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:09 pm

#49 Lektriktadpole siad:

I don’t know about that. Maybe Statik is the real reason Lyle hasn’t gotten his test ride. There are times that I have had a tendency to get distemper over Statik’s negativism, but then I remember his track record for accuracy. Let’s hope that he got carried away with his prose today and that his usual prescience is not for today.
=========================

I don’t think anything I say here affects or reflects upon Lyle’s relationship with GM…or his odds at getting test drive. It is the internet and a open forum after all. If you get two people commenting, they likely disagree…if you get three, probably two disagrees and the other hates Obama, lol. The internet is the wild west.

Lyle is doing a good job, maintaining a good balance with GM, to not only keep on good terms, but also to get information, which is to be commended. It is a slippery slop indeed.

I have been peppering in a little more light heartedness with my posts lately…because even I get tired of me sometimes. However, I think my prescience is still on track though.
(+1 on the vocab).

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Tagamet Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:12 pm

Statik@18 said in part”
…Do you have some retooling to do now in D-HAM?
“Dude…Lyle. You are KILLING me. We haven’t built jack-crap on this ‘line’ since, er..well, the Bonneville. It is a complete dump in there, I mean, it looks like a bomb went off. We got to get a bulldozer in there practically. Once we do that (whenever), we have to built a whole new set of tools…I’m so tired thinking about, I’m going to have a little rest on your lap while you think of another question”…

AND

“…If you were just building Volts there, what would that plants total annual production capacity be?
“Sweetness. Another opportunity for subterfuge. The entire plant capacity is 200,000.”
Interior monologue: Those dopes will never put together there is 3 lines in there and we are only tooling up one line, hehe. They probably don’t even know that one of the lines are still active…or that capacity for anyline has rarely ever exceeded 60K.”…

Not that I try to spend ANY time figuring you out (I did that long ago – very scary story. Did you hear from Homeland Security yet?) I WAS trying to reconcile the devestated plant AND that “one line was working”. All I can figure is that “one” was actually “None” in the second paragraph.
A typo seems likely, but then again you might have just been “in the zone” . Another possibility is that I’ve misread it 17 times (or one of my meds missed my mouth.
Be well,
Tag
LJGTVWOTR

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carcus1 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:14 pm

#52 P.S.

Is there even one EREV on the planet made by anyone that has had an in-depth independent test drive to verifying performance?

P.S to the P.S. : great post on #18 Statik. You’re going to have a hard time topping that one.

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Rashiid Amul Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:18 pm

John1701a #48
CaptJackSparrow #51.

Price will be an issue. I think it GM will need to do a fantastic marketing job “teaching” the consumer about the differences between those vehicles and the Volt. While doing that, they will also have to explain why the higher price is better.

On performance, I think it is easier. 40 miles on the plugin electric is the main selling point and a good one. I think the new Prius is only 10 miles on plugin.

But consumers are very price conscience, especially if the economy doesn’t pick up by then. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Prius wins out in sales because of the pocketbook issue. (Assuming there are the same number of Prius and Volts to sell)

Personally, I would choose the Volt because of the 40 miles.
It will be my wife’s car, and it will be a rarity for her to use gas.

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charlie h Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:19 pm

#53, statik, “I don’t think anything I say here affects or reflects upon Lyle’s relationship with GM…”

That’s certainly true. Especially when you consider the style and kind of comments that can be seen, for example, on FastLane. I’m sure GM still maintains a very friendly relationship with whoever runs FastLane.

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:19 pm

#52 carcus1:

That is a lot of what ifs…and there is plenty more out there.

On top of that (and a zillion financial things), being so pressed for their deadline, (almost to the realm of impossibility), it doesn’t allow for any errors/hiccups along the way.

If lightning did strike the Hamtramck plant and it was spitting out actual production cars on time, you have to wonder about the testing/reliability of the product.

Other, similar EV companies are producing small test fleets and putting them in the hands of 3rd party/real world drivers for up to a couple years pre-launch. GM seems to be saying in this thread, that the best case is that they are going to spit out some pre-production spec copies a couple months before production rolls. (which is kinda scary-although I’d still buy one)

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:21 pm

#53, statik, “I don’t think anything I say here affects or reflects upon Lyle’s relationship with GM…”

#57 charlie h said:
That’s certainly true. Especially when you consider the style and kind of comments that can be seen, for example, on FastLane. I’m sure GM still maintains a very friendly relationship with whoever runs FastLane.
===================
That is so true, I was actually thinking about ‘Fastlane’ when I was righting that…good call.

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DonC Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:30 pm

statik — So off topic and on to solar. I’ve been trying to figure out a good way to present solar output. Last month was about 500 kWh. If you say this to someone who asks their eyes glaze over. It’s a meaningless number.

So yesterday I said to this guy: “Yeah, about 500 kWh. If I had a Chevy Volt that would have powered me for 4000 miles.” He was completely blown away. This way of describing output seems promising. Maybe if we get some EVs on the road we can all become solar sales guys!

The other interesting part was that he ascribed the “magic” to the solar panel and not the efficiency of the EV, which is really backwards. That much energy would take a 20 mpg car only 800 miles or so. Since I don’t think he would have been very impressed with this, his reaction underscores how the efficiency of EVs is hard to convey.

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:31 pm

#54 Tag said:

Not that I try to spend ANY time figuring you out… I WAS trying to reconcile the devestated plant AND that “one line was working”. All I can figure is that “one” was actually “None” in the second paragraph.
A typo seems likely, but then again you might have just been “in the zone” . Another possibility is that I’ve misread it 17 times (or one of my meds missed my mouth.
————————–

No, I like it ‘as is’…but I can see where your confusion is coming from…here are the quotes:

Do you have some retooling to do now in D-HAM?
–”We haven’t built jack-crap on this ‘line’ since, er..well, the Bonneville. It is a complete dump in there, I mean, it looks like a bomb went off.”
-AND-

“Interior monologue: Those dopes will never put together there is 3 lines in there and we are only tooling up one line, hehe. They probably don’t even know that one of the lines are still active…or that capacity for anyline has rarely ever exceeded 60K.”
————-

Basically, I was saying that the ‘Volt line’ inside D-Ham has been shuttered a long time, and is a complete mess..not the entire plant is shuttered and is in disarray.

The second quote was after Lyle asked about plant capacity, he said 200K, then when pressed to answer if that means they could build 200K Volt if demand warranted…he failed to mention that it is a 3 line plant, and one of the lines is still active and spoken for and that you can’t just flick a switch to bring another line onboard if they are only doing enough machine fabrication to outfit one line.

Clear as mud right?
/I’ll try to do better next time. Sorry about that

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ThombDbhomb Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:33 pm

#52 carcus1:
I’ll play that game.

What if ……

(Insert a bunch of positive things and pleasant surprises here)

“What ifs” are fun.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:36 pm

@Rashiid Amul 56
“It will be my wife’s car”

That’s a big he11 no over here. I’m sure that ” I “/Me would get close to the 40 AER but my wife would be lucky to get 20 AER. She drives with only two speeds, “Stop” and “Bat outta HE11″.

Here’s a good forum to ask everyone… (sorry Lyle, don’t mean to Hijack this)

Any ideas on how to market/ make a comercial on the Volt?

Here’s my idea. Show each Hybrid vehicle owner and Volt Owner (Me), all men of course (not hatin on the women though), buying one gallon of gas and show the map that they need to follow to get to the closest H( . )( . )TERS that’s 75 miles away (40 AER + minimum 35mpg on ICE). Guess who makes it there? At the end show all of them riding in the Volt to get there……

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Rashiid Amul Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:42 pm

DonC # 60 says,
I’ve been trying to figure out a good way to present solar output. Last month was about 500 kWh. If you say this to someone who asks their eyes glaze over. It’s a meaningless number.

——-
You could be describing me. It is a bit embarrassing to admit here, but true nonetheless.

———–
Last month was about 500 kWh.
So for the whole month, you collected 500KWH of electricity from the sun. Does this mean you have a 500KWH system? This confuses me a lot. I believe I use about 700KWH of electricity per month. When I try to compare this to what you said you got, I would still need 200KWH from the electric company. Correct?

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:45 pm

Here’s some news on the Hybrd repair costs. Seems such “Specialized” cars only have the MFGR to make parts for it…
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/02/13/prius-proves-pricey-come-repair-time/

There’s only Two mfgrs that will most likely have this minimally impact their BEV, Chrysler and the new Ford Focus BEV that Lyle drove. Why you ask? Because their products are just “Retrofits” of their current production vehicles. They just build them but not put in the ICE and other ICE related crap in the car.

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:47 pm

#60 DonC said:

statik — So off topic and on to solar. I’ve been trying to figure out a good way to present solar output. Last month was about 500 kWh. If you say this to someone who asks their eyes glaze over. It’s a meaningless number.

So yesterday I said to this guy: “Yeah, about 500 kWh. If I had a Chevy Volt that would have powered me for 4000 miles.” He was completely blown away. This way of describing output seems promising. Maybe if we get some EVs on the road we can all become solar sales guys!

The other interesting part was that he ascribed the “magic” to the solar panel and not the efficiency of the EV, which is really backwards. That much energy would take a 20 mpg car only 800 miles or so. Since I don’t think he would have been very impressed with this, his reaction underscores how the efficiency of EVs is hard to convey.

=================
It started out sounding like you were asking a question…but I’m not sure what it is.

I will say that I agree with everything you said a million percent (if that was possible). There is a unfathomable amount if misconceptions about the technology to start with…and then to attempt to translate/express that power in any meaninful way is very difficult ..and then to take it further to a real world application? No easy feat.

It has gotten to the point I don’t even talk about my solar systems (or plans for the next one). Generally, when I hear it in mixed conversation or here on the site now, I don’t say anything.

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Darren Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:50 pm

you all need to see this http://www.shelbysupercars.com/news-012209.php

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DonC Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:55 pm

#58 statik says “Other, similar EV companies are producing small test fleets and putting them in the hands of 3rd party/real world drivers for up to a couple years pre-launch. GM seems to be saying in this thread, that the best case is that they are going to spit out some pre-production spec copies a couple months before production rolls. (which is kinda scary-although I’d still buy one)”

Having at least some familiarity with tech and new product development I’d say your fears are unfounded. GM has allotted nine months to go from integration car to test production. A few of those months are reserved for validating that all the pieces actually fit together, but the vast majority of the time will be devoted to actually setting up the production line. Given that the production line is really concerned with physical pieces — and that the software can be tweaked right up to production and even later — this seems very reasonable. Basically, since GM has tons of experience with making sure the seats fit and the radios work, concerns about getting pushed off schedule by the physical parts seem minimal.

I also strongly disagree with your interpretation of the EV fleet testing. Rather than being a careful test to ensure that the ultimate vehicle is terrific, I see these as being the proverbial bridges to nowhere. You don’t do this type of fleet testing when you have a vehicle going to production. You do it when you’re just testing concepts and you’re not sure what you’re going to do. Basically this stuff is like the E-RAV4 and the other EVs that came out in CA because of the CARB regulations (or what Honda is doing with the hydrogen FX Clarity). None of these cars was ever seriously destined for production, and none ever did become production vehicles. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case with current crop of fleet test vehicles — these may one day see production — but they are a lot closer to this than to what GM is doing with the Volt.

//on the solar stuff I was just musing more than anything else — so part question in a vague sort of way

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Dave K. =D~ Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:57 pm

Anyone see the last nights Motor Week special on the Detroit Auto Show? They really pushed the Converj and mentioned the Volt (and Voltec system). They also showcased at least 5 viable competitors. It’s coming down to not only a race of time, but a price/quality tug of war. GM must meet the proposed release forecast or again be shot in the foot.

I understand the wordage used by Jon Lauckner. Now, more than ever, one misspoken word could mean the loss of job and benefits.

=D~

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

#63 Rashiid said:

You could be describing me. It is a bit embarrassing to admit here, but true nonetheless.

Last month was about 500 kWh.
So for the whole month, you collected 500KWH of electricity from the sun. Does this mean you have a 500KWH system? This confuses me a lot. I believe I use about 700KWH of electricity per month. When I try to compare this to what you said you got, I would still need 200KWH from the electric company. Correct?
================================

No. The 500 kWh is the product of the system.

ie) If you have a 3kW system, in January it might produce (depending where you are) up to 4 hours (kWh/m2 – global insolation).

So in this instance a 3kW, would produce 12kW per day in January x 31 days = 372kWh total output

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 2:03 pm

#67 DonC said:

…a whole bunch of stuff about lead times and testing
=====================
We disagree, but thats…”OK” (insert Stuart Smalley voice)
/another time will tell situation to see who is right I think

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Shawn Marshall Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 2:03 pm

Vitriolic Skeptical StatiK – give the man a break – he is employed, they are trying to actually make something not just live on non-productive opportunities like traders do.
Minus score on spelling. Get a different brand of coffee and set the timer on your coffee maker so you are not so grouchy in the morning.

Nice interview Lyle. I enjoyed the perspectives gained.
Good luck to GM.

Nukes + (X)EVs = the dawn of a new age in America
Battery Innovation = Realistic Solar Power Options

500 kW-hrs = approx 1/2 the monthly usage of an average home

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carcus1 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 2:05 pm

#62 ThombDbhomb,

Well that’s kind of like. . .

Put a bunch of positive ifs in one hand and sh*t in the other. See which one fills up first. ;\

I’m sure we could type back and forth on the positive/negative thing till our fingers bleed.

I’m not trying to be an Eeyore here. I’d be a lot more inclined to positive what if’s IF I were an innocent bystander. Now that my tax dollars are involved, I’m an investor.

I think an independent test of a volt mule for performance verification is completely reasonable and should be expected at this point.

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Rashiid Amul Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 2:24 pm

Statik, #69 (gosh I love that number for some reason. )

Thank you. I get it now. A 3kW system is measured on a per day basis. That is extremely helpful to me.

In Connecticut, supposedly we can get (at least last year) a 100% reimbursement on a 3kW system. It sounds like I should have done that. I will have to check and see if that rebate is still offered. The State is pretty much broke, so I would doubt it.

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Casey Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 2:27 pm

Statik Your so good, I love it when Tag gets in, your guys are pretty smart and entertaining

I think GM should build a Volt right now, by hand or whatever and give it to Lyle, just think what it would do for everybody!! (even GM)

Dave G, where do you play music ? I play in Coos Bay Oregon

NO PLUG, NO SALE, JGTVWOTR, DBNGCMEMEV, (my house) =D~~~(my volt)————————-STOP THE BAILOUTS———————-

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Dave G Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 2:30 pm

Casey Says: “Dave G, where do you play music ? I play in Coos Bay Oregon”
————————————————————————————–
Northern New Jersey

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Dave G Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 2:39 pm

#50 CaptJackSparrow Says: “One would hypothesize that the only wiring would be two big fat power cables from the generator output…
I think Dave G has a pretty good graphical illustration of this. Dave G can you post again.”
————————————————————————————–
http://mysite.verizon.net/vzenu6hr/ebay_pictures/Volt_Electrical_Block_Diagram.jpg

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jeffhre Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 2:46 pm

statik #59 You’ve probably righted that by the time this is written.

The Hamtramck part is hilarious. GM execs looking that far out are relying on memory of past production process, training and projections while they focus on the here and now. So their view that far out probably isn’t that different from ours as a group.
And (was playing with my son and comments were only at 60 when I stopped typing) as long as events don’t interrupt the critical path then the other apparent setbacks or missed deadlines won’t matter.

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 3:02 pm

#78 jeffhre

Hey no highlighting hideous word transposing, lol.
Righting = writing.

I have no time for spell checkers or proof reading…it is part of my ‘je ne se quoi’ if you will (that, and the stone age old version of this web browser I have at home has no features…but I have it working flawlessly).

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Dave G Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 3:03 pm

#64 Rashiid Amul,

Here’s a quick and easy solar home roof system calculator:
http://www.affordable-solar.com/gt-estimator.htm

They will (obviously) recommend one of their systems, but once you have the system size (in kW), you can buy the system anywhere.

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Dave G Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 3:36 pm

#72 Shawn Marshall Says: “Battery Innovation = Realistic Solar Power Options”
————————————————————————————–
Most realistic solar power options don’t involve batteries. Most electric power is used during daylight hours. Specifically, peak electrical power usage generally happens on hot sunny days, when people are using the air conditioners full blast.

Here are the 3 most realistic solar power options in my mind:

1) 99% of all home roof solar panels are “grid-tie” systems. If your solar panels are making more electricity than you are using, the electrical meter spins backward. When you use electricity at night, the meter spins forward. So the grid is acting like a giant battery. Power companies love this because it helps them with their peak demand.

2) Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) use parabolic mirrors to focus sunlight on a tube of oil. These are the largest solar power plants in the world, and are already very cost competitive with fossil fuel plants. The oil pipes are heated up to 750° by the sun, and then pass through water to make steam, which spins a turbine in the typical way. On cloudy days, natural gas is used to heat the water instead. 90% of the electricity is produced by the sunlight.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEGS

3) Solar power tower systems use an array of flat, movable mirrors to focus the sun’s rays upon a collector tower. The intensely focused sunlight creates super-high temperatures. The tower uses molten salt as its working fluid, allowing it to be stored in the molten state for power generation at any time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Tres_Power_Tower

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Tom H Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 3:37 pm

I’ve been trying to figure out a good way to present solar output. Last month was about 500 kWh. If you say this to someone who asks their eyes glaze over. It’s a meaningless number.
===========================================
I am always trying to understand the actual viability of solar energy. If you yielded 500KWh in January, that would be about $50 worth of electricity. I assume in the summer your monthly yield is a lot higher.

For a system that can yield that kind of output, what does it cost, how much space is required, and for how long can it produce at that level?

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David K (CT) Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 4:04 pm

Tom H @ 82

Your calculation shows that you are using a rate of $0.10/kWh.

Here in Connecticut I pay nearly double that. A solar panel system for me would cost $35,000. I have no idea how long it would last or how effective it would be. I believe it would have to be nearly as big as one side of my roof (colonial style house).

I think I’d rather use a wind turbine for $15,000. I don’t really know.

I have a couple years to do research before I get my Volt.

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 4:05 pm

#82 Tom H said:

I am always trying to understand the actual viability of solar energy. If you yielded 500KWh in January, that would be about $50 worth of electricity. I assume in the summer your monthly yield is a lot higher.

For a system that can yield that kind of output, what does it cost, how much space is required, and for how long can it produce at that level?
========================
This is a major problem with explaining the tech.

There is no way to answer this question really..at least not so much that your answer can benefit anyone else.

There is too many variables state to state. Here are your issues/questions that need to be resolved before you can get a answer…and to work out viability:

1.) Mostly importantly- where do you live (big differences N/S)
2.) How much do you pay bottom line per kW now
3.) Cost of system –what are your state’s rebates?
4.) Cost of system –prices WILDY vary by source
5.) Cost of system –are you handy?
6.) If you are net metered, what do they buy it back at?

Other questions you asked:
How long can it produce at that level?
—-Provided you are not talking about Amorphous (or similar attributes) panelling, you should stay within 10% of startup capacity for 25 years+ (Amorphous, will net a greater amount for a few months, then settle back 15% or so lower…and likely degrade at a faster rate)

How much space is required?
Traditional panels have a higher efficiency (as a rule) than thin film (and some other types), so you would get about 15W/foot…thin film your looking about 5-6W/foot.

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Jason M. Hendler Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 4:28 pm

Lyle,

Excellent interview! You scooped everyone again – look for many links to your posting.

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ThombDbhomb Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 4:40 pm

#73 carcus1
I hope I’m not coming across as antagonistic, because that is not my intent. As I understand things, GM is getting a secured government loan to get their business through a rough patch. So, technically, we are more of a lender than an investor. If one of the borrower’s products is a dud, in theory, we still get repaid. I don’t want my mortgage loan holder asking me for performance verification of my new roof or my new solar panels.

An investor assumes more risk. So, independent testing of a volt prototype for performance verification might be a little too much. Having said that, I want GM to give Lyle a prototype for a week…and I want Lyle to have a Volt prototype party during that time.

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D.. Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 4:45 pm

http://www.tucsonelectric.com/Green/GreenWatts/solaroutput.asp

Interesting site here. updated ever 2 minutes. Enjoy.

4.6 MW PV array produces 7650MWh/year(goal) in N. Arizona….or, roughly, a 4.6KW array will generate about 21KWhours/day, on average, in the high desert southwest.

NPNS

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N Riley Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 4:49 pm

Thanks, Lyle, for feeding the piranhas on this blog with some real fish food. This was a very good interview and shows GM is on track. Let’s keep hoping they will have some available or coming off the production line by July 4, 2010. That would be a great Fourth of July to celebrate our independence.

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carcus1 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 5:34 pm

#86 Thomb,

” If one of the borrower’s products is a dud, in theory, we still get repaid. I don’t want my mortgage loan holder asking me for performance verification ……”

__________________________________________________

Your mortgage holder should very much be concerned with performance, not of your solar panels, but of your ability make your payments.

In this analogy GM is insinuating ( CEO driving volt to bailout hearings) that they can make the mortgage payments because the volt is going to sell like hotcakes. Of course, if the volt is a dud, it won’t sell, and it won’t help GM make any mortgage payments.
Therefore, I contend it’s more than fair to ask for performance verification. I don’t want the U.S. taxpayer to be the “Countrywide” to GM’s McMansion.

So, GM. Bring me your last 5 years tax filings. Bring me your W-2’s, Bring me your list of debts and assets. And, ….. bring me your volt mule and let me drive it for a week. Let’s find out if this thing is everything you say it is.

(p.s. no antagonism involved, just a healthy debate)

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fred Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 5:37 pm

I now have my deposit all saved up for an ELECTRIC car. Whichever is most affordable first.
Volt is my first choice.
Aptera next.
Chrysler Town and Country (for the paintball team) or selfishly an iMiev.
Customer awaiting product here.
The longer it takes, the bigger the down payment.

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ThombDbhomb Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 5:47 pm

#89 carcus1

I dunno carcus1. Once I’ve gotten my loan, my mortgage holder doesn’t check on my employment anymore. If I don’t pay, I get foreclosed.

The Volt is not the only component of GM’s viability plan. If it were, then verifying Volt performance might make some sense. However, even if the Volt performs in a technical sense, there is no gaurantee it will perform financially. Not all cars are sales/profit successes.

If the product we were talking about was an EESTOR ESU, then I would want verification. But, I believe that GM can produce something less exotic, such as a hybrid car.

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Unni Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 5:55 pm

From :

http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090213.WBdriving20090213131012/WBStory/WBdriving
=====

Quietly, on the side, we’re hearing talk about putting a fleet of i MIEVs on the streets of Vancouver during the 2010 Winter Olympics.
=====
and on price ::
=====
Finally price. Mitsu officials hint at $25,000 or so, though Patterson is not willing to be pinned down on a price tag here in Canada.

What he will say is that the Japanese government subsidies zero-emissions cars and they slice the price by 50 per cent. Something similar in Canada would surely kick-start an electric car business here.
=====
Canada is going to give 50% as subsidi for electric cars ??

Volt where are you ?

Yes you can say Apple was late in mobile phone market but now people talk like apple invented mobile phone. A great product with innovation is needed but iphone is only $199 with 3 yr contract and cutting 10 eat outs justify iphone purchase.

Is it same for volt ??

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Rashiid Amul Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 6:02 pm

Dave G #80

Thank you for the link.

Statik, thanks for the explanations.

I love this site because of all the things I learn. You are all great people.
Even the ones watching me and taking notes.

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carcus1 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 6:07 pm

#91 Thomb,

I think we’re just gonna disagree on this . . . . .

__________________________________

“Once I’ve gotten my loan,…….”

You think GM’s not coming back to the well again? and again? and again?
_________________________________________________

” …..even if the Volt performs in a technical sense, there is no gaurantee it will perform financially………..”

Truedat, but if it doesn’t perform technically then it’s impossible for it to perform financially. GM claims technical success, but will prove it to no one. Hell, Ford tracked Lyle down to have him drive their EV mule.

________________________________

” I believe that GM can produce something less exotic, such as a hybrid car….”

Yah. I’ve been posting about that ever since I got on this sight. Where’s the Prius fighter? ? ? Where’s the mid $20’s , 40+ mpg car? The absence of one is a viability liability.

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carcus1 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 6:17 pm

#92 Unni,

“Finally price. Mitsu officials hint at $25,000 or so, though Patterson is not willing to be pinned down on a price tag here in Canada.”

————————————————————————————-

Ahhh, now that’s a nice rumor.

A mid $20’s BEV from a major auto manufacturer.

To me, this is the killer, the game changer, the news that makes Chevron chiefs and Arabian Sheiks lay awake at night.

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CaptJackSparrow Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 6:19 pm

@Rashiid Amul 93
“Even the ones watching me and taking notes.”

D@mn, someone’s taking notes and watching. I’m in deep shlt.
lol….

The Jelly Bean car (iMiEV) is in New Zeland now…
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/02/12/imiev-starts-renewable-energy-powered-trial-in-new-zealand/

(Quote)
Dave K. =D~ Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:41 pm

I sure hope the production Volt doesn’t have “Hey everyone, I’m electric!” decals on the doors. Or a green lightning bolt sticker on the hood. Just a small E-REV emblem will be fine.

=D~

(Quote)
Red HHR Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 7:49 pm

I am on leave from my new employer’s boot camp…
What a week… I am looking forward to Lyle’s test drive of the Tesla. Statik obviously has inside information on GM…

Now there is an unconfirmed sighting of a Red VOLT at area 51!

Red HHR (where the G-men test the Volt)

(Quote)
Ryan P. Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:01 pm

Pretty sad when you stop to think about it…
If the US of A had ramped up to produce flying fortresses and Liberty ships at the rate GM is doing the Volt now, WW2 would have ended (badly) for us in 1943.

/my 2 cents

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statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:16 pm

#93 Rashiid said:

Dave G #80
Thank you for the link.

Statik, thanks for the explanations.

I love this site because of all the things I learn. You are all great people. Even the ones watching me and taking notes.
=================================

You better be careful, I am ‘watching your behaviors’
(…that of course goes as well for you N Riley and ThombDbhomb)

+1 Rashiid, nothing like a little inside humoUR…I had a chuckle

(Quote)
statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:28 pm

#92 Unni says:

Quietly, on the side, we’re hearing talk about putting a fleet of i MIEVs on the streets of Vancouver during the 2010 Winter Olympics.

Finally price. Mitsu officials hint at $25,000 or so, though Patterson is not willing to be pinned down on a price tag here in Canada.

What he will say is that the Japanese government subsidies zero-emissions cars and they slice the price by 50 per cent. Something similar in Canada would surely kick-start an electric car business here.

Canada is going to give 50% as subsidi for electric cars ??
==================================
==================================

Oh, teaser newspaper ads…I love them. Price sounds kind of like a fantasy though. I’d be wagering a price tag around 35K.

I’m actually going to go down and talk to the Mitsu Electric Vehicle people on monday….I am prepared for some serious ‘ifs’ and ‘maybes’ when I talk to them about this, lol.

The part of the article I do like, and what I want to beat on them about is this:

“Mitsubishi Canada has designs to sell it here…Mitsubishi Canada might be able to sell 2,000 a year in Canada. They’d be city cars for the crowded downtowns of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, at least to start.”

A heavily subsidized, three city pilot program, in my backyard…heck yeah! This would be ’scrumtrulecent’, as I already having a working relationship with the Mitsu guys.

(Quote)
RB Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:42 pm

#101 statik says “Mitsubishi Canada has designs to sell it here…Mitsubishi Canada might be able to sell 2,000 a year in Canada.
————-
What do you hear about Mitsu in the US? There was a little bubble some months ago, but I’ve not heard much since then.

(Quote)
RB Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 8:46 pm

#93 Rashiid Amul says
I love this site because of all the things I learn. You are all great people. Even the ones watching me and taking notes.
———————————-

Exactly so; great comment. Even day I learn things I not only didn’t know but didn’t know were known.

Even though I disagree with all of it.

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JEC Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:01 pm

64 Rashiid Amul
“You could be describing me. It is a bit embarrassing to admit here, but true nonetheless. ”

========================================
Hey Rashid. When you hear the term Watt, this usually means Watt-hour. For example you have a 100 Watt lightbulb, but thats not really correct, since 100 Watt is an instantaneous power. To expend energy requires time, therefore you should really say “I have a 100 Watt-hour light bulb”. If you turn on your light for 1 hour, you have used 100 Watt-hours of energy.

Most power systems, such as solar express the power in Kilowatt-hours (Kw-hr). A Kilowatt is 1000 watts, so if you had 10 of those 100 watt-hr light bulbs, and turn them on for 1 hour, you would use 1 Kw-hr of power or 1000 W-hr.

So, if you wanted to know how to size a solar collection system for your home, the first thing you would do is find out your average and peak useage. Your not going to (at least not typically) going to try to size your solar system to the average, but some people might. For you, you said you used 700 Kw-hr’s of energy last month, so you know need gather infomation on average amount of sun per day, average useage per day, and how much money you have in your wallet.

So, lets say you want your solar to generate 1/2 of your monthly average use of 700 Kw-hr’s. This means you need to gather 350 Kw-hrs of power each month. Lets say 30 days/month, 4 hrs sun per day. So, thats 30 * 4 = 120 hours of sun per month. You then need 350Kw-hr/120 hours = 2.9167 Kw-hr (minimum size, but probably multiply by 15% for windage), so 3.354 Kw-hr or round it up to about 3.5 Kw-hr.

Hope this helps, but maybe I just confused you more?

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ThombDbhomb Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:06 pm

#93 Rashiid Amul

I’m not sure which came first, the local guy that started the “watching you and taking notes” meme or that insipid Geico ad campaign.

Nonetheless, I echo your sentiment. The diversity here is interesting/inspiring/irritating/informative. I even enjoy the the bitter, grumpy codgers that have escaped from the donut shops to yell at anyone who will listen.

…May all your Volt dreams come true.

(Quote)
carcus1 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:21 pm

Bah, humbug.

I’m going out for a donut flavored beer.

(Quote)
JEC Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:22 pm

Just another way to look at energy related to the Volt.

The Volt has 16 Kw-hr battery, and uses 50% of that, or 8 Kw-hr’s.
So, in terms of light bulbs (everyone seems to relate to the old incandescent bulb), say you have a butt load of 60 watt light bulbs, so to burn up the 8 Kw-hrs of energy from your volt, would be equivalent to running 8,000/60 = 133 bulbs for one hour.

So, go find 133, 60 watt bulbs, and turn them all on for one hour. Then you will get a better understanding of just how much energy you “use or waste” when you drive the Volt 40 miles (disclaimer! I have not idea if the Volt will actually travel 40 miles on 8 Kw-hr’s, but thats what we are assuming)

If your in a small room with these 133 bulbs illuminated, you might begin to sweat profusely

(Quote)
JEC Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:25 pm

Who said BEER!

I am tipping back an ice cold Miller chill as I type. Trying to support the local Milwaukee economy, one beer at a time!

(Quote)
statik Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:36 pm

#101 statik says “Mitsubishi Canada has designs to sell it here…Mitsubishi Canada might be able to sell 2,000 a year in Canada.
————-
#102 RB said, “What do you hear about Mitsu in the US? There was a little bubble some months ago, but I’ve not heard much since then.”
========================

There is absolutely nothing..no news in Canada or the US, other than the ‘global department’ of Mitsu officially spinning that they will sell them here…sometime, global car…yadda, yadda.

I think we have a case here of a over ambitious beat reporter at the autoshow meeting up with a opportunistically creative auto exec. Exec is spewing the line, reporter is interpreting it as it appears it is being said.

As for what is going on. They are rolling out a test fleet ie) stuntcasting in the US now…and at any other venue that gives them some high profile greenie points.

Of course the NA execs want the product, but the fact of the matter is Mitsu can sell as many as they can make (and then some) right outside the factory door in Japan…so ‘the public’ is not likely to get one anytime soon. I’d say the i-Miev availablility here is comparable to how many Volts the ‘non-North American’ countries are really going to get in 2010 and 2011.

If I was betting on it…I’d say it goes like this:
2010-Exclusive/limited release-100 copies
2011-Limited release-1,000 copies
2012-who knows

/I’d love to think it will be available soon and I could get one…but I’d also love to think I was a X-Man

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ThombDbhomb Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:48 pm

B.E.E.R.

Battery Electric Extended Range?

(It’s getting late)

(Quote)
Keerthi Says:
February 14th, 2009 at 1:01 am

It looks like the plug-in credit limit is being increased from 250,000 to 200,000 per manufacturer.

source:
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1046.html

(Quote)
GXT Says:
February 14th, 2009 at 2:17 am

60 DonC wrote:
So yesterday I said to this guy: “Yeah, about 500 kWh. If I had a Chevy Volt that would have powered me for 4000 miles.”
————————————————————————————–

4000 miles?

500kWh/8kWh = 62.5 Charges * 40 miles = 2,500 miles. Best case.

(Quote)
DonC Says:
February 14th, 2009 at 2:54 am

#112 GXT — Ooops. You’re right. But I didn’t say it was accurate, just what I told him. As an aside, I was zeroing in on the Aptera, which gets about 100 miles from 9 kWh. That’s more like 5500 miles which is more impressive. But the point is really more about translating solar output into something that people can understand. They don’t understand kilowatts

Rashiid — The solar system is rated in kW. That’s the theoretical peak output at a given instant, which for a bunch of reasons you’re unlikely to ever see. I’ve got a 3.85 kW system, which is fairly modest. Peak output should therefore be 3,850 watts. But in the real world, say for example at noon on a cloudless day in January, I’d get maybe 3,500 watts. If the system output that many watts for an hour between noon and one I’d generate 3.5 kWh (3,500 watts or 3.5 kW for 1 hour). But the next hour I’d generate less as the sun went lower on the horizon and the wattage dropped. So let’s just say that during the hour from 1-2 I’d generate 2,500 watts for a hour or 2.5 kWh. The daily output would be the sum of all the hours.

How much your system will produce is based on a lot of factors including roof pitch, orientation, shading, and how cloudy it’s been lately. The solar guys usually have a Palm with a camera and software that let’s them sit on the roof and calculate fairly precisely how much the system will produce. The hours of sunlight are historical. In CA you get a rebate from the utilities, which pays based on expected production, so usually your actual output will exceed the expected output since they have an incentive to lowball it a bit.

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Rashiid Amul Says:
February 14th, 2009 at 9:31 am

JEC #104, #107 and DonC #113

As I said, I keep learning from this site.
Your explanations are very good as they penetrate my extremely thick head.

No confusion. I am happy that I have finally learned what all these numbers mean.

Thank you.

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Shawn Marshall Says:
February 14th, 2009 at 10:12 am

Most people have jobs in the US. They get up in the morning and go to work. This causes one of two daily electric load peaks – the morning one. Then everybody comes home in the evening and there is another daily load peak when folks turn on the news and start dinner and maybe crank the heat or AC. These two peaks do not coincide all that well with fixed solar arrays on your rooftop. You could install a tracking system if you really want to spend a lot more money than you’ve already spent for very expensive arrays. Or if you had a great battery system you could store all the available energy that your solar system can produce and use it when you need it. Most utilities pay peanuts for home generated power and it has to be converted to AC and synchronized and fault protected. No lineman wants to get killed by a home system backfeeding into distribution feeders, that’s why home generator installations are required to have a make-before- break changeover switch.
So these new batteries offer the promise of getting off the distribution feeder entirely. You just need enough solar capacity to satisfy your average load and you can kiss your electric bill goodbye.
Average load for an average home in the mid-Atlantic region might be
1000 kW-hrs usage per month/ 30 days in a month/ 24 hours in a day = 1.38 kW average usage. So if you have 8 hours of insolation at a non-optimum angle, you might get by with 4-6 kW of cells if you can store all the output; and your battery pack needs to be able to supply the average load for x number of days? if you don’t want to run your own ICE generator too much during cloudy times. This is another reason why the Volt is a great idea. It not only points to eventual freedom from non-economic cartels but also promises to free us from the previously necessary electric monopolies – and cleanly too for the greenies.
Also a kilowatt – hour has a little k and a big W – if you wanna use scientific units. I’m just saying.

(Quote)
Shawn Marshall Says:
February 15th, 2009 at 10:03 am

Correction : The changeover switch is break before make to avoid parallel out of phase which equals a fault condition and possibly 10,000 amps fault current. Sorry, but nobody saw the last post anyhow.

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WTF? Says:
February 15th, 2009 at 3:28 pm

John Lauckner and Bob Lutz “co-conceived the volt..”? Where do you get this shit? I’ve seen Bob Lutz named as the “father of the Volt” too, yet another crock of shit. Stop putting your opinions and the shit you’re fed by GM out here as facts. You have no idea what the hell you’re talking about, and the shit you parrot on your site is so far from accurate it’s ridiculous. Your site is proof postive that you can’t believe one half of one percent of the garbage in print on the internet.

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Sasparilla Says:
February 17th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

Boy does this sound good. I hope it continues to fall into place.

On the EV1, they only did prototype tooling because they had already scaled back the idea of really producing the vehicle and the proto tooling is much cheaper if your not going to be producing serious numbers – at that point you could tell GM wasn’t serious about selling the EV1 (long before the 1st one rolled down the line).

Things sound different with the Volt, but I’ll feel alot better after production tooling has been purchased, created and put in place – then we’ll know management wants a production throttle that can really be opened. Its great to see this stuff though.

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jbfalaska Says:
February 17th, 2009 at 9:33 pm

I was spooked. When GM announced the engine plant was idled, I gave up waiting and driving my well over 150,000 mile plus Buicks. Purchased two Lincoln MKX vehicles.

Am I still in the market for a Volt? Of course. IF and when the car is ready to roll of a real assembly line.

CHEVY VOLT: American-made, American-FUELED. No more Middle East turmoil oil will prove a great day for this country and all Free nations.

(Quote)

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