AND 
Do MINI E Applications Tell Us Anything About Electric Car Demand?
There is some uncertainty about what the general demand for electric cars will be. Along with the 36% total drop in auto sales in December, hybrid sales dropped an even larger 43% in December. Total hybrid sales were down 10% for the year. Certainly the rapid decline is gas prices has played a significant role.
BMW’s MINI has introduced a new experimental electric car. Based on the MINI Cooper, the car has an electric drivetrain supplied by A/C Propulsion and and 35 kwh lithium-ion battery pack made by E One Moli. The car is functionally a 2-seater because the entire back seat is replaced by the massive battery pack.
The car will generate 205 hp and go from 0 to 60 in 8.5 seconds. It has a 150 mile range.
Interestingly MINI has offered up 500 of these vehicles for interested “pioneers” to lease. The lease will be for one year at $850/month and applicants must have their own locked garage and the ability to allow installation of a specialized 240 V charging line. They will have to report back to MINI on the experience and are actually considering participants in a field trial.
The cars are only being offered to people in California, NY, and NJ. Applicants had to apply online, and the registration period was for one month. It was actually extended by 2 weeks after the first deadline passed.
I was told by MINI spokesperson Nathalie Bauthers that they received 1800 applicants overall and no decision on who will get the cars has been made yet but will be over the coming weeks. In terms of delivery she said “we will be shipping cars during the first quarter of this year with the West Coast lessees coming first, followed by the East Coast lessees.”
What do these numbers tell us about demand? This is after all a 2-seater, very expensive, has a limited one-year lease and no option to buy, is considered experimental, and gas is less than $2 per gallon. But considering the application process was theoretically open to about 50 million people over age 18 in those 3 states, with an unknown number of those who actually knew about it, is 1800 really that many applications?
Obviously we here believe in the coming electric car revolution, but is the rest of the country ready, especially with cheap gas?
It is likely that well-tested and warrantied E-REVs like the Volt will be better embraced than limited range pure EVs.
And yes, I am one of those 1800, the one year lease just might tide me over to 2010 and the Volt. But then again I may not be chosen.
Source (Bloomberg)
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:05 am
Do MINI E Applications Tell Us Anything About Electric Car Demand?
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Yes, they tell us “is anybody out there who wants an electric car enough to pay a premium price for a car that you only get to keep a lilttle while, even if you like it?” Obviously the answer is “yes”. This portion of the market is the most extreme tail. If it is there, there is a much bigger market for a “real car” at a lower price (can be lower without being “low”), that the owner gets to keep.
The question is whether Lyle and other people who get a Mini E like the car, after using it for some weeks. If so, that’s strongly positive.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:16 am
I’m sure people will like the Mini, though it’s a 2-seater… Not everybody needs to haul 4+ people all the time. I’d be happy with it, but I can’t afford $850+insurance.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:18 am
This was not very well advertised so clearly out of the 50 million potential customers, I would argue that only a small fraction knew about it.
Out of that small fraction, only a smal fraciton want a 2 seater.
Out of that small fraction, only a fraction qualify with the garage.
Out of that fraction, only a small fraction want to pay $850 per month for transportation.
1800 people in these three large regions is statistically insignificant and really does not tell us much.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:19 am
I just contacted Mini again yesterday to let them know that I would be charging my Mini totally from solar and wind energy….
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:20 am
Lyle: Drive it very carefully, If you hit head on in a wreck I think you may have 5-600 pounds of battey coming at you! Point is, I think the battery location and shape make this car a danger to drive. I think the Volt battery and shape will allow engineers to design the car so that the battery slides down and away from the driver rather than right thru said driver and or passenger.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:23 am
3 nuclearboy says “1800 people in these three large regions is statistically insignificant and really does not tell us much.”
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With greatest respect, I think the facts support the opposite conclusion. Despite all the negatives you cited — 2 seater, garage, $850/mo, limited geographic offering, little advertising — there were still a substantial number of people who wanted the car.
==>
To me that means that there are many many more people who will be interested in electric cars when these obstacles are lowered.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:27 am
On the question about cheap gas, this is a real problem for the Volt. Many people could care less about our money going overseas or pollution, especially when it impacts their own personal wallet. In this situation, they will have to justify the extra expense of the volt.
All of the Volts extra weight, plug, battery conditioning, etc. etc. all boil down to the ability to save about 1 gallon of gas per driving day. And buy the way, it will cost you about $1 in electricity to save that gallon of gas.
If gas is $2 per gallon, that is a $1 savings per driving day. Lets see, I take my car out 350 days per year. Thats $350 dollars per year saved. For this big savings, I have to put out an additional $10,000 bucks up front.
There will be plenty of auto, consumer, and financial magazines making these calculations to show that the Volt is not a good financial decision (assuming the gas is cheap).
I want a Volt in my garage, don’t get me wrong. I am just playing the devils (or Toyota’s) advocate here and noting that the $35,000 Volt will be a tougher sell if gas is cheap.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:33 am
#6 RB,
I am just saying that 1800 people out of 50 million is not too significant.
There are more people in that group that think the CIA and/or Israel brought down the Twin Towers on 9/11/01. I think these people are an insignificant minority just like I think 1800 (or 0.0036%) people are not enough people to draw any real conclusions.
You could probably get 1800 people to lease an 800 Horsepower Hummer getting 7 mpg. I just don’t think it matters.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:45 am
Are these the cells they are using?
http://www.molienergy.com/pdf/IMR26700.pdf
Just looking at the performance curves.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:49 am
8 nuclearboy says “. I think these people are an insignificant minority just like I think 1800 (or 0.0036%) people are not enough people to draw any real conclusions.”
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I understand, and you may well be right. The other side of the picture is that if one has a population with a normal distribution, these 1800 are the portion of the distribution that is 5 or 6 standard deviations from the mean (i.e. a standard deviation for each of the major reasons you gave). If that is so, there are a huge number of people in the middle of the distribution, people interested in electric cars who cannot overcome all the multiple discouraging factors that you so well enumerated.
Until there is more data, one doesn’t know for sure. But my interpretation remains the reverse of yours — with that large a group on the far tail of the distribution of interest, there is a much much larger group in the center who will be interested as soon as they don’t have to overcome so many discouraging factors.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:54 am
I read this website most days in a week and I never heard about the Mini lease (I’m sure I just missed that earlier post). I bet if you polled the people in california on the availability of the car, you’d find that virtually nobody had heard of it.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:58 am
quite simply. Demand is more then 3x the availability for something previously noted is for someone with a lot of money to throw at a car they can’t keep.
I’m signed up for Mini news updates and received a notice. I’m in detroit and couldn’t afford it anyway.
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January 7th, 2009 at 8:02 am
Lyle – At $850mo ($10,200/year) this isn’t a referendum on electric cars, it is simply a reflection of the fact that people will always choose to pay their mortgage over buying ANY extremely expensive car. Expensive gas won’t get people into an $850/mo electric any more than cheap gas prices will get people into an $850 Mercedes. It is a basic fact that the vast majority of the population won’t and can’t pay $850/mo for any car.
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January 7th, 2009 at 8:04 am
#10 RB. I agree. I already believe there is significant interest in electric cars. The thing that we will have to wait and see is if there is significant interest in paying more for electric cars.
We will see eventually the electric Malibu or Camry compared to the Gas version and then things will be clearer.
The Volt compared to the Cruze will also tell us alot. The Volt being only a 4 seater will be a negative vs the Cruze for some, however, and this may not be a perfect comparison.
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January 7th, 2009 at 8:13 am
Really……… only 1800 hundred applicants……….hmmmmmmmm let’s think about this. BMW limited the selection to Kali Forn Nia, New (Tax Me To Death) York and Jersey. That cut the possible number of applicants right outta the gate. Now add to this an $850/month price tag, it has to reside in a locked garage (you must own a home) and an economy that is hovering in double digit unemployment. Geeezzzz I wonder why they didn’t get more applicants? Does anyone think this was a well though out deal? How would the car be serviced? Yes, I know from an authorized dealer but where are those dealerships located? I’ll bet they ain’t anywhere near a small rural town in upstate NY.
Lyle, no slight here but you are very fortunate in that your job is recession proof and I’m sure $850/month is no big stretch. I’d have loved to be on the list but I’m one of the less fortunate who is trying to keep it together by holding onto my job and getting my bills paid. The nearly $1000/month expenditure on a car that will be leased to me, require me to plan my long range schedules around it’s maintenance and not be available for purchase after I’ve sunk 10K +into it is nuts.
I don’t understand what BMW or any other car manufacturer gets out of producing these limited autos and then charging a fortune to allow customers the privilege of testing driving them. Yeah, I know they get alot of data but why so much money? They could certainly get more data by putting twice the number of vehicles out there for less than half the cost.
I’m ranting but this really gets my goat. We as a nation cannot allow this technology to be priced out of the reach of the masses; if the masses don’t benefit ten the companies don’t benefit.
Nobody’s asking the car companies to give ‘em away. We know they need to make a profit and cover costs but there has to be a better way.
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January 7th, 2009 at 8:19 am
It would be interesting to plot the number of people subscribing to the Volt “wait list” alongside the price of gasoline over the last couple of years. I bet there is a noticeable correlation.
I must admit that my interest in the Volt has gone down as gas has descended in price. With gas at $1.50 a gallon, the premium that I will pay for a Volt really can’t be erased by fuel savings–it was hard enough to make it work $4.20 a gallon. To make matters worse, electricity prices have been increasing dramatically in my area over the last 5 years, and I don’t see that trend changing much in the foreseeable future.
Ultimately, I can’t help but wonder how many people are bailing on the idea of buying a Volt due to the low price of gas.
Regardless, I still intend to buy one, as I’m hell bent on ending oil imports from countries that hate me, my values, and my way of life. The potential benefit to the environment, having more stability in my transportation costs, preventing more US job losses, and my geeky attraction to new technologies also help keep the Volt on my must-have list.
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January 7th, 2009 at 8:30 am
I think the significant part of this, is they only got 1,800 apps with a extended registration…with NO DEPOSIT required to app.
/just knock off the ‘loons’ and the illiterate people who don’t fit the requirments…and do you even have 500? Probably not. I have a feeling there is going to be a lot of ‘executive driven’ e-minis.
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January 7th, 2009 at 8:42 am
Statik @ 16:
There’s no market for EVs now. Tesla has managed to sell their entire inventory of Roadsters at $109,000 a pop. My point is, you can’t get these things (EVs). So they will sell like there’s no tomorrow for the foreseeable future, as proven already by the current producers.
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January 7th, 2009 at 8:48 am
#14 nuclearboy said
” The Volt compared to the Cruze will also tell us a lot.”
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Yes, I agree. Volt v Cruze will be a good measure of electric car interest, and with a similar “control” model available it will be a good test of electric vs. ICE. It may not be perfectly clean, for the reasons you gave and because availability and price likely will be distinctly differnt, but inquiries and interest will be a good measure.
So far as I know there is no waiting list for the Cruze, even as compared to the informal one here on gm-volt, which tells us something already.
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:14 am
hi MDDave #15,
“wonder how many people are bailing on the idea of buying a Volt due to the low price of gas.”
__________________________
People interested in buying a Volt will stay in the game. First year pricing will be very key in maintaining buyer interest. And second year availability will be the final deciding factor.
On the topic of an $850 per month EV Mini rental. I believe they overcooked the price by $200 per month. $7800 is a bit easier to absorb than $10,200. You could buy a top of the line crotch rocket motorcycle for that kind of pocket cabbage.
=D~
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:21 am
What’s the range of the Mini E?
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:26 am
I dont really care about gas prices but gas is already back over $2/gallon here (from a low of $1.46). A lot of the energy analysts are predicting oil to reach $65/barrel by the end of 2009.
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:27 am
Just like the EV1, it wasn’t even advertised at all. I never even knew the cars were even ready for lease yet. Albeit for basically $1,000 a month. I would be interested, but they don’t seem, to care about people living in Ohio.
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:30 am
So, to answer the question, NO this does not correctly gauge the electric car demand because no one knew about it, and it is priced out of the general publics financial reach. lPlus with these 500 only applicants, most people don’t feel like playing these corporate “lotteries” where we win the chance to buy something. Makes me feel like I’m begging personally.
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:36 am
I am not real sure what these 1800 applicants says about the electric car industry and its potential for success or failure. I think it says more about a two seater and an $850.00 one year lease with all the other requirements. If you remove from the general population those people who don’t know what state they live in and those others who don’t pay any attention to any news programs you will end up with only about 10 or 12 percent of the population. I believe I am being quite generous with those percentages. If there is one thing I have faith in it is the inherit disinterest of people of the life and times around them. I look at these applicants as pioneers and as such you find only a very few percentage of people today willing to sacrifice their time and money for something new and unproven. That is my opinion for what it is worth.
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:38 am
There will be strong initial demand for these vehicles, but if performance doesn’t increase, and cost decrease, the market will eventually dry up.
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:38 am
In response to #7–nuclearboy
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With cheap gas not many Americans will buy the Volt, it is pure economics. If cheap gas still exists when the Volt comes out to the public, the government should put a federal tax on the gas to keep it at about $3.00 a gallon. If the gas at that time is $3.00 a gal or higher, no taxes would be needed. Then, take that money and give it to those who buy American made hybrids, or electric cars. I say American cars because I don’t care to subsidize foreign made cars. I ‘m sure the Japanese would never give their tax dollars to those who buy American cars in Japan. Never mind, they still have a closed car market in Japan and giving our tax dollars to Japanese cars in the US would be an insult over injury.
I know foreign car lovers would not like this, but I think it is high time we start thinking about a level playing field so we can survive as a great nation.
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:50 am
#10 RB
“Until there is more data, one doesn’t know for sure. But my interpretation remains the reverse of yours — with that large a group on the far tail of the distribution of interest, there is a much much larger group in the center who will be interested as soon as they don’t have to overcome so many discouraging factors.”
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I think you pretty well summed it up. This first “test” will not really tell us much about the potential for electrifying the automobile. There is not enough reasons for people to really focus on this option and will not be for several more years. The sooner auto makers get vehicles out there for the public to see, drive and buy the quicker the public will start focusing in on this subject. They will not be interested unless they see a need and can AFFORD it.
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:54 am
I demand an electric car. Although I don’t demand one under “mini-e” terms. I’m not wealthy enough for the mini-e. Give me a couple more seats and let me buy it at a lower price. I guess I’ll have to wait until the wealthy haved paved the way. New tech costs a lot.
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January 7th, 2009 at 9:54 am
Justification for the Volt is similar to justification for a conventional hybrid — typically you are not going to be able to recoup price differentials though gas savings alone. There have to be other reasons to buy the vehicle — this is why Toyota has concentrated so much of their Prius marketing on the “green” aspects of the car (emissions, etc).
“It is cheaper in the long run” simply isn’t the right argument. If it was, no one would drive luxury vehicles. Why should we have to justify efficiency when people are so eager to spend as much or more on larger engines for more power, huge stereo systems, remote starter systems, huge chrome wheels, etc? Where is the payoff comparison for those? Why do people buy those when it is so “unjustifiable?”
Simple. Buy what you want that reflects what is important to you. If it is important to you to avoid the cost of fuel, or you want to get away from oil for some reason, or you want to buy something that doesn’t impact the environment as much as other choices… AND you were going to spend that much anyway, why not buy a hybrid/E-REV/BEV? People pay more for luxury and power because they like it. Why should it be any different with efficiency and low environmental impact?
Computers started out very expensive, too. Economies of scale have to take place but I don’t recall the original adopters of the PC complaining too much about price. They wanted it and they could afford it… they bought it. That made it possible for the rest of us who *can’t* afford $10K for a computer to get one for not much more than 1/100 of that cost.
Personally, I may not be able to afford the Volt when it comes out but if I do buy it, I won’t be trying to justify the cost based on fuel savings anymore than I do with my Insight. I bought it used and it cost more than it should have because of gas price run ups last January, but I wanted it for a whole host of reasons not related to instantly saving money.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:00 am
Joe #26:
A “great nation” cannot survive by using government as a tool to change people’s behavior from they want to what you happen to want. Everything that we are experiencing today is exactly the result of that thought process.
Best regards,
D’Artagnon
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:17 am
D’Artagnon @ #30 – If by that you mean that we quit subsizing coal and oil, and that producers of dirty products, like coal producers, pay for their economic externalities (mercury poisoning wrecking the fishing industry, pollution of water resources from mountain-top removal causing municipalities and individuals to ship in water when they did not have to before, and clean-up of spills like occurred at TVA), then I don’t necessarily disagree with you. If by that you mean government does nothing, and allows actors move around in our society without regard to consequences of their actions, then I don’t see how that kind of a world is sustainable. The tragedy of the commons is a pretty well understood phenomenum, and has never been resolved by hands-off government.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:19 am
#30 and Joe#26.
Actually, Governments do affect things quite a bit. For instance, it is pretty much a given that the Japanese rice farmer would go out of business if they had to compete with the American farmer. The Japanese have had rice shortages and the Govt has still not allowed the people to buy US rice.
There is much to read about the Japanese (in the 60s and 70s) systematically dumping electronics in the US in a pre-meditated effort to kill off the US electronics industry. They won this battle hands down.
Another Example, Airbus was propped up by Euro Govts for years. It was a money loser for years and would have never survived without huge Govt handouts. Only through Gov’t interference did they finally make it up to the level of a company like Boeing. Now they compete fiercely with Boeing. If we were to let Boeing go under during some period of hard times, Airbus would own the market. Then, more of our Countries wealth would slowly start to drain into the Airbus coffers.
The Chinese are another example. Some of their industry is even an arm of the military. They are an excellent example of ecomomic warfare. They are currently winning.
The world is run by Govt’s that are out to win economically. We are basically in a war (economically) with much of the world. Given that our wealth is being drained from our country and building up in other countries, I would say we are losing. You cannot continue to lose like this for ever. At some point, we will simply need to work much harder to pay off our finanacial masters who will be overseas somewhere. This is dangerous and could lead to wars.
I am in no way saying our Govt is competent enough to fight this battle but given the world we live in, they might want to try.
If I were the Dictator, I would slap an immediate tax on imported oil and anything imported from the Chinese communists.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:19 am
I hate to say it but cheap gas will kill the electric car again, nobody wanted the EV1 when gas was $1.50 and no one will want to buy the Volt with gas at $2. A $15-20,000 premium over a Cruze is just not worth it anymore. The Cruze is the same car from a platform level and it is supposed to get 40+ miles per gallon on the gas engine alone. The common/average consumer can’t afford to buy a $40,000 car because it lowers their carbon footprint of whatever conservation BS they are motivated by at the time. I love the idea of an American-built car that reduces our country’s dependency on foreign oil but have you read anything about OPEC lately? OPEC doubled their prices and nobody even cares with just barely a hiccup in prices at the pump. We even have a major conflict going on in the Middle East thanks to Hamas who is now currently being destroyed by Israel, in retaliation for shooting rockets across the border for last 4 months. Even with that issue and Islamic countries asking OPEC to stop selling Oil to the US and Israel we still can fill up our cars at $1.50.
I’m sorry but the laws of supply/demand are true. GM will still build the Volt to counter the biased/stupid media that labels GM as an automaker that builds giant SUVs that no one wants, but they aren’t going to sell more then a few thousand.
The trick will be to keep the technology fresh and a vehicle on the back burner for the next 5-10 years until full prices are ridiculous again.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:20 am
#30 D’Artagnon
Government has been changing out “thought process and behavior” for the last 40 years. They have been mostly successful due to all the political correctness hog wash we encounter every day. Government uses a carrot and stick approach through your pocket book when they can’t get changes quickly enough or quite the way they want them.
I don’t know how strong the government will get behind electrifying the automobile industry. We may know more later this year or the next. Right now our government has it hands full trying to recover the economy they were primarily responsible for messing up in the first place. Heaven help us if they mess up the auto industry too.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:27 am
It’s still all about batteries.
An electric car MAY have a much longer life than ICE cars.
I think the aftermarket for used electrics will become very robust with the advent of modular battery packs that GM has talked about.
This will give a new dimension to economic analyses which are projections based upon assumptions for every term: interest rates, future costs, future values and etc.
As many on this site have said repeatedly, buying an EV early is participation in a strategic decision – like it is for the solar power folks.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:31 am
If you really want an electric MINI Cooper, you can buy one for $57,500 from Hybrid Technologies.
http://www.hybridtechnologies.com/order
I’m waiting for the Volt and Plug-in VUE.
NPNS!
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Don’t get too comfortable with these “cheap” gas prices. Here is today’s front page headline from my local newspaper. “Record gas prices may return in 2010.” Gas prices here have gone up 15 cents in the last 3 days.
http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2009901070396
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Most people want a 4 seat car that they can keep, so the Mini doesn’t fill the bill. Also, Gas prices are nopw rising again and we are told that they may hit $3.00 by this summer. That means that interest in electric cars will be going up again. Every time the price cycles like this, more people are convinced that we need an alternative to fossil fuel. I still believe that the Volt is the type of car people really want and I don’t believe the price will be all that high. GM has said it will cost them about $40,000 to build and that they expect to lose money at first. Also, the government has agreed to pay $7500 to anyone who buys an electric car. So, my guess is that the initial selling price of the Volt will be about $37,500, which brings it down to $30,000, with the government rebate. That’s still high, but it is closer to reality. Also, Congress and President Bush were beating on the unions to accept the same pay scale as the foreign auto makers. The auto makers are expected to come back in March for more money from Congress and Congress has said that they have to have plans for becoming economically viable in the future. This will require some give from the unions. If they come anywhere near what the foreign automakers pay, the cost of producing the VOlt will come WAY down. We will have to wait to see what really happens, but I am optomistic about it.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:37 am
1800 applications is a correct business case for a billion development cost ? means if 10,000 volts out,they get max 1500 appliactions if its lease (lets assume 300 remains with mini ) ?
In my viiew, Volt should do a lease release first with a 1000 cars and make sure the technology is working as expected. The early adapters of new technology will be less and normal people wont jump to buy an unproven stuff ( ice cars were proved for years . Prius took years to get acceptance and even lot people still think of maintanace of 2 engines )
I say it’s a safe way of marketing. The current model of marketing volt has looks to me like risky one, if the product is normal one.
After initial year watch , they can sell cars.
Secondly, Do i spend 10k every 10 year for change of battery ? menas i need to save 1k per annun for this. This is also an expence need to count and the retail value of car goes down in 10 years because of this reason itself.
But as i know these development costs pay in longterm ( say anotehr 100 yrs ), because the future is EV. Gas prices will go up in seconds if there is no EV.
GM is only trying to play with hype and patents than real stuff. I know they are more open than before but still others are on road and GM cant be in blog and photos.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:40 am
#32 nuclearboy
I agree with much of what you said. I don’t see our government as being competent enough to deal with this world wide economic war that has been raging for the last 30 or 40 years. They have not dealt with it up to now and we have seen our industries decimated by unfair competition and government rules and regulations that have not helped as much as they have hampered our ability to compete. We have too many “interest” pulling us apart and demanding equal this and equal that. Our government is more interested in serving the needs of the people who they think will get them re-elected every term. They cannot focus on the real issues and the big picture. The future to them is today and the next election cycle. We are definitely losing this economic war and I don’t see any real change no matter who sits in the White House. Congress is the real problem and there will not be any good change coming from them for the foreseeable future. Change, yes. Change you can believe in, yes. But change we need, no.
I must have gotten up on the pessimistic side of my bed today. Forgive me, people, if I am being a bore. I will endeavor to do better.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:43 am
My question is; after the year is up and they take all the cars back and the refuse to sell them to you and they chop them up for scrap, are all you Mini drivers going to cry like little babies and start making movies about the killing of electric cars? If GM had a program like this, they would be crucified in the press. Mini does it and it’s advanced and you get to be a pioneer. $850 a month to do their Beta testing?? Give me a break. They should be paying you $850 a month. There is fair amount of demand for electric vehicles, but not with these terms.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:45 am
My top 3 reasons for wanting a VOLT
1. No more of my $ for foreign gas
2. No more of our boys fighting in foreign lands for Oil
3. Yes, I am trying to become greener
I am currently trying to figure out how I can put Solar panels on my Roof. The thought of producing my own fuel is very intriguing. On that note I signed up for collective solar buying at:
http://www.1bog.org/
Hope I will get my panels and my VOLT
NPNS =D~~
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:46 am
I suppose Mini-E applications are a data point. From that data point, I could not produce a reliable electric car demand curve. Major variables affecting that curve include cost, range, recharge rate, performance, comfort, styling, ease of use, color, cupholders, ego…
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:49 am
I don’t think anyone knows what the future price of gas will be.
In todays paper an article by Associated Press tells how some expect “Costly Gasoline” after the recession. And oil at $150 to even $200 a barrel,and gas more than the record high of $4.11.
“…some analysts say the spike could happen as soon as next year,perhaps in 2011 or 2012.”
When my chance comes to buy a Volt, the deciding factor will have more to do with if I think the price is “reasonable”. No matter if gas is 50 cents a gallon I still want plug-in electric.
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:57 am
#39 unn
WHAT?
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January 7th, 2009 at 10:59 am
It would be a better idea if we can compare to the EV-1 to Electric Mini Cooper applicants. They both were on lease and two seater. Many have not heard EV-1 when it came out as the same to Electric Mini Cooper . The only different is the lease term is shorther then EV-1 and EV-1 was mostly in many different states. EV-1 got many tree hugger turn other people around and try to stop the crush the EV-1. I would says the demand was high. I wonder how big the applicants EV-1 to the Electric Mini Cooper.
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January 7th, 2009 at 11:01 am
the small numbers do not tell us anything about the demand.
I make the analogy of the high cost of new Hi Tech gagets vs old technology. Anybody remember the $6,000 Plasma only 4 years ago. Now you can buy a better quality flat screen for $1,200 +/-.
The new Technology for Electric cars will be expensive until the manufacturing costs reduce. With technology improvements (batteries) in 6 to 8 years these vehicles will be competitive with old gas vehicles. Add to the fact they Electic vehicle is “greener” and helps with national security of every nation we will see 20% of the market Electrified by 2020. When we can make solar and wind a part of every home/apartment and with charging stations, then the % of electric vehicles will increase.
I thank people like Lyle who lead the way by affording the up front costs.
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January 7th, 2009 at 11:05 am
Not only do the 500 people get to pay $850 per month for the lease, but they get to pay for the installation of the 240 volt charging line and any other needed equipment. That may not be a huge cost, but it will be several hundred dollars, I suspect. Good luck to all those who are selected and accepts the lease terms. If it was offered in my area and for about half the price, I could see myself signing up for one. But not at $850 per month. These 500 cars will be returned to the auto maker for them to disassemble and study the parts to determine any problems that may have been encountered. I would imagine not all the 500 will be disassembled. Some may make it back to the public or private use.
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January 7th, 2009 at 11:12 am
The problem with the E-mini is that it’s not the greatest car with crummy terms at a very high price. For the price of the mini you could lease a $65K car with a 9% interest rate. And what do you get? A lousy conversion using computer batteries. Plus you don’t get to keep the car — you have to return it at the end of one year. What do you do, park your other car on the street for a year?
C’mon, who would want to do this? I’m surprised they could find 500 people in the current economy. Heck most people I know have lost a neighborhood of minis in the last quarter so there isn’t a lot of extra cash floating around. If you really want an electric mini, Hybrid Technologies and others offer more compelling packages at lower cost. Heck, you can get a converted Yaris for $40K, which seems like a better deal.
Having said all this, the electrification of transport will only happen if the correct pricing signals are sent. It’s not going to happen with gas at two bucks a gallon. In this case we’ll just bump along until the next oil shock.
#48 N. Riley — Good point about the installation. Note that your 240 line will only cost a few hundred bucks if you have the capacity. Otherwise it’s an expensive upgrade of your entire system, including trenching to the street. (This is a problem for solar installations so we know it’s not that uncommon.)
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January 7th, 2009 at 11:16 am
MMDave @ 15,
Money is far from being the only issue here.
I’m a peace-loving hippie, in many respects. I have a friend (my long-term girlfriend’s sister’s long-term boyfriend) who is in the Army, in Iraq right now who is driving tanks around looking for ammo dumps or something. Since every justification for that war has wilted under the light of scrutiny, oil is the only credible reason left. The last time I saw him, the mental preparation that he was going through in order to become a cold-blooded killer was freaky — I hope he’s still human when he comes back. If I burn less gas, then maybe he can come home before he turns into a PTSD wreck that I’ll have to deal with for the rest of my life.
I’ve had a few experiences with local “police officers” back in Virginia who were clearly unaware that they were home from Iraq, despite wearing the local Sheriff’s uniform. I accidentally sat next to them at lunch and heard their conversation and observed their dress, body-language, and the semi-automatic handguns that they were wearing — and I’d forgotten my cellphone, so the only thing I could do without calling attention to myself was to sit in silent terror with my friend until they left. Scared the living $#!t out of me — and it stands out as the only time in my life that I honestly wish that I had been carrying a concealed handgun. I later saw one of them perform a traffic-stop, doing his best to treat a terrified-looking local office-worker like a dangerous insurgent — the “officer”’s body-language indicated that he was accustomed to holding assault rifle when doing this. Fortunately, I’ve moved to another state and the body-language and attitude of the police in my new town is much less threatening — but PTSD mixed with violence is going to be a big problem for this country in the coming years.
I’ve only touched on the geopolitical and social issues. I haven’t touched climate-change and environmental issues. Also, I have a geeky fascination with unusual modes of transportation. In other words, I’m morally embarrassed that I drove my car 2.5 miles to work this morning, despite having a sore throat and the temperature being well below freezing — I should have taken my bicycle. I wouldn’t use any more gasoline than I have to, even if it were free.
Support our troops — bring them home!
No plug, no sale. Seriously.
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January 7th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Geez, $850 a month? For a 2 seater? Does anyone remember what the monthly lease payment was for the EV1?
I think price is everything when it comes to demand. Price something cheap enough and there’s a market.
So at the other end, it’s either comforting or disgusting (Lyle excluded of course!) that there are 1800 people in this country where price is no object. And with that said, the Mini-E is kind of useless as a price point exercise. I think enough has been said on this blog as to the price/performance sweet spot. Soooo….
Below $30,000 GM can expect a hit with tens of thousands of cars selling to Chevy buyers. With the $7500 tax credit this is a $20K something priced car. That’s a price anyone can consider.
Above $30K you’re competing with BMW and every other “near-luxury” coupe. That’s a tough sell. $7500 tax credit and potential of almost no gasoline usage can keep the Volt very competitive if the Volt has great content (style, build quality, “feel,” etc.)
Above $40K you’re competing with Mercedes/Lexus/BMW/Cadillac. A Cadillac CTS can be had below $40K!!!!!!! (one only at this price), with great lease pricing! The Volt becomes a non-starter, a niche product. We’ll see when the Volt is launched to the public.
Okay GM-Volt bloggers, let me have it!
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January 7th, 2009 at 11:34 am
#29, Right Lane,
Another aspect of the Prius is that they put a hybrid drivetrain in what would have been an otherwise very-good small economy-car. It’s big enough to seat 4 people comfortably, it drives nicely, and the hatchback has an extraordinary amount of volume, if you fold down the rear seats. My only complaint is that the dimensions of the hatchback isn’t big enough to hold a 4′x4′ sheet of plywood.
Also, they put enough gadgets on the dashboard to justify a price-premium.
Granted not everyone likes small economy cars, especially ones that looks like an Enterprise Shuttlecraft — but if you’re a gadget person, the Prius is probably cheaper than any of the other vehicles that you would consider. Also, if you’re green-oriented, the price-premium isn’t the primary issue, if you can afford it.
But, yes, for many people, the economic issue is probably the primary one. For those folks, though, the economic issue will need be a win. But there are still enough geeks and greens out there to sustain a car as popular as the Prius, so I don’t see why BMW or GM would have any problem catering to this market — but only if they bring something better technology and better numbers to the table.
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January 7th, 2009 at 11:47 am
People are ready but not THAT car. $850 a month? Are you NUTTSO!
The Volt is my first choice.
The Th!nk City is my second choice. (For Now)
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January 7th, 2009 at 11:48 am
The $850/month lease with no option to buy stopped me from putting my name on the list. The application also indicated metro NY area and I am Upstate.
Still waiting for the Volt.
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January 7th, 2009 at 11:58 am
The problem was definitely the $800/month lease. I decided to save that money for my Volt and buy American.
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January 7th, 2009 at 11:58 am
For Christmas I got my son an electric MINI that he can ride around in. I’m jealous. It’s too bad GM didn’t license a Volt version.
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January 7th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
freep.com – reports battery maker A123 to bring jobs to SE Michigan
http://freep.com/article/20090107/BUSINESS01/90107042
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January 7th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
It isn’t the cost of gasoline that’s going to kill the electric car, it’s the price of the car. If you include the cost of gasoline per year, one would spend a little more for an electric car but not $850/month. Car companies have to face the risk of sequential income from parts, so they are lookiing at how to maintain a business model on those criteria. There would be a lot of people buying EV if they were affordable. despite $1.50 gasoline.
As far as 1800 people responding to a product most people wouldn’t spend that much on, in a limited area, with a garage, for just one year, that’s a lot of people. Just the fact that it wasn’t that well advertised either, sure makes you wonder what would be possible if those barriers weren’t there!
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January 7th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
#51, I am not a hippy but I totally agree that money is not the only thing. I will definitely look into the Volt even with gas a $2.
The point is, many people will not be able to justify the extra 10-15K for the volt if they are only going to save $300-500 per year on gasoline costs. The money is simply not there for many people.
What I hope will happen is that Volt 1.0 will sell very well in its limited numbers (60K in 2 years) to people who have the money or desire to own it. IN the mean time, battery prices will fall off dramatically (this is my hope) and electric cars will be further refined to reduce cost and to make them a cost effective alternative to gasoline cars for the masses.
Once we have reduced our dependency on Oil, hopefully our leaders will have the sense to extract our country from the middle east and your tank driving friend can start driving a battery delivery truck here in the States.
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January 7th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
But with a 150 mile range this should appeal to more people than the Volt!
Perhaps it is too early to tell, but this hints at the range-satisfying-~80% of the population fallacy. That is a crazy metric to chase when hitting it makes the car appeal to only (or only allow production for) a couple % of the population.
Shades of things to come.
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January 7th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
For everyone who says $850/month is far too high do the math on a $40 000 Volt with 0% financing over 4 years (standard GMAC terms). Works out to $833/month. Don’t bother reminding me of the $7500 tax credit, GM doesn’t deduct that from the purchase price, you still pay the dealer the full $40K.
Now I will admit that you get a lot more car for your money with the Volt and they won’t be taking your Volt away from you at the end of the year, so yes, I’d be much more likely to spend the money on the Volt than the Mini.
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January 7th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
I think that I’ll just wait until somebody wrecks one and go buy the junk and put in in another car. I’d really like to install this stuff in one of those small Pontiac 2 seater convertibles.
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January 7th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
If it’s just mileage you want without the econobox image I’d suggest buying a manual tranny SAAB 93. This car routinely gets 36-42 mpg at 70 mph on the highway and over 30 mpg in the city. EPA ratings are no where near this so I wonder how the EPA arrives at its’ ratings. This is a GM product but no domestic products get the turbocharged 4 cylinder coupled with the 6speed tranny. WHY?? Anyway, I still want a volt ASAP.
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January 7th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Ahhh, I WANT MY VOLT….THAT IS ALL.
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January 7th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
A123 is to begin manufacturing batteries in the USA – that is good news!
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January 7th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
#31 D’Artagnon says “A ‘great nation’ cannot survive by using government as a tool to change people’s behavior from they want to what you happen to want. Everything that we are experiencing today is exactly the result of that thought process.”
Actually this is a somewhat silly statement since behavior is frequently reflexive. For example, making contributions to retirement accounts the default option completely changes behavior. Does changing the default make people want something different? Not really. It just makes opting in more convenient.
What people want is convenience at a low price. If running around in a car that uses gas costs more and is less convenient than using an EV then people will want EVs. If not then they won’t.
The point you’re making is actually the one Lutz and Tom Friedman and many others have made. Namely, that you can’t force people to buy alternative vehicles when gas driven vehicles are cheaper and more convenient. To change behavior you need the right pricing signals.
And there is nothing wrong with having a product, like gas, pay it’s own way. My guess is that a five dollar tax on a gallon of gas would not begin to pay for the costs that using gas imposes on society from a health and national security standpoint.
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January 7th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Well, I follow the EV market and live in California and vaguely knew about the upcoming E-Mini. However, I didn’t hear about this application process. So I think most people didn’t hear about it except those that obsessively follow EVs or heard about by accident.
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January 7th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
DonC at #50 said “The problem with the E-mini is that it’s not the greatest car with crummy terms at a very high price.” and other posters made various disparaging comments
————————————————————————-
These are exactly the reasons that getting 1800 people is such a positive indicator. One might imagine no one at all submitting an application, or 10, or 25. Instead there was a relatively large number. (Lyle signed up, and he is well informed about the negatives and what they mean.) That means there is a strong strong interest in electric cars, so even with all that filtering 1800 people remained.
Of course no one will ever get 10,000 or 100K people to sign up with all these negatives, including the short term and high price. But take away the negatives, some of them if not all, and 18,000 or 180,000 customers begins to be realistic.
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January 7th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
I don’t know if this necessarily belongs here, but there is another Prius ‘conversion’ company out there now:
5kWh pack, gives 10 miles range
Cost: $6,699
http://www.3prongpower.com/index.html
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January 7th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
It just sounds like you could get two tax write offs on one car .
smart money . home payed for and looking for a way to save more .
Follow the money some one said .
God Bless
Edwin Mang
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January 7th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Other news about random EVs:
Aptera (like all EV companys), blew their 2008 delivery date for the first cars. Now they have moved the expected date to…October 2009.
Oh yeah, more good news…they are also out of money.
Get this…they want people who put down their $500 refundable deposit to sign a form making it ‘not-refundable,’ so the company can raid the eskrow fund. They do say you will get a extra $250 off the MSRP if you let them steal your money…huzzah! I hope their servers can handle all the people rushing to make their deposits non-refundable.
http://allcarselectric.com/2009/01/aptera-admits-it-couldnt-deliver-its-first-car-by-end-of-2008/
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January 7th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Lyle, you run a well-known and respected website entirely devoted to the development of an electric car. You have a large and uncharacteristically attentive fanbase. They’d be nuts NOT to lease you a car.
Just sayin’.
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January 7th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
#40 Unni
Secondly, Do i spend 10k every 10 year for change of battery ? menas i need to save 1k per annun for this. This is also an expence need to count and the retail value of car goes down in 10 years because of this reason itself.
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Not necessarily. In 10 years, batteries may cost 1/10 of the original price… $1000. Or their may be an option besides a battery, like a super capacitor. You never know.
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January 7th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Check out todays freep.
http://www.freep.com/article/20090107/BUSINESS01/90107042
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January 7th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
#14 N Riley
Not only do the 500 people get to pay $850 per month for the lease, but they get to pay for the installation of the 240 volt charging line and any other needed equipment
—————
Thats how I understood it. I read it as they have “to allow installation of a specialized 240 V charging line.”
But i could be wrong.
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January 7th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
oops, i meant to type “that’s NOT how I understood it:.
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January 7th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
#27 Joe
why do all you rich guys always think raising taxes is the answer for everything, just add more taxes to gas and that will solve all the problems, geez I get so frustrated by the thinking of rich people.
BUILD AN EV THAT LOOKS AND RUNS LIKE ANY OTHER CAR AND IT WILL SELL
gas prices wont matter when you get in your car and it doesn’t need a oil change or tune up or any of those expensive services
Oil prices go up with the DOW and come down with the DOW, if you watch the stock exchange you can watch oil price go up and down
NO PLUG NO SALE
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January 7th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
I guess I’ve always been somewhat of an “early adopter” but I also have to temper my geekish tendencies with budget concerns. The Volt is on the higher-end of what my budget will allow for a new car, but I’m still willing to take the plunge, only because I want to see E-REV technology become more mainstream, and ultimately, more affordable.
And, privately, I want to stick it in the face of all those haughty Prius owners.
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January 7th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Some EV pre news at teh NAIAS
http://autoshow.en.autos.sympatico.msn.ca/autoshow/Detroit2009/Slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=16433611#23
The JEEP ERV specs sound eerily familiar…..
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January 7th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
I’m still waiting for the first wrecked one at the junk yard so I can get the components. Perhaps put it in an old Mustang II.
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January 7th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
______________________________________________________
For all those automakers, like BMW MINI, that are in the testing/prototyping/concept/thinking-about-it stage regarding the EV automotive category, I submit to you the below text from today’s released Tesla Motors January 09 newsletter:
“Happy New Year from Tesla Motors! As we ring in 2009, let’s take this opportunity to talk about what’s happened in the past year and tell you why we’re excited about the future…
Production Update
We delivered about 150 Roadsters in 2008, and we plan to ramp up production from 15 per week to about 30 per week later this year. Tesla is no longer just a Silicon Valley startup cranking out interesting prototypes – we’re a legitimate production company and the newest member of the global automotive industry.” End quote.
______________________________________________________
Electric Cars + Nuclear Power = American Energy Independence!
______________________________________________________
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January 7th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
#80 Mitch Says:
Some EV pre news at teh NAIAS
The JEEP ERV specs sound eerily familiar…..
———————
That’s gotta be a HUGE battery in there
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January 7th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
This gets my goat for a few reasons, some of which have already been well discussed.
1) The price. I’m a teacher. Paying over 25% of my gross pay to lease a car is, bluntly, not feasible.
2) I have a family. A two-seater is just not feasible.
3) Limited areas of operation. I live in Ohio, and Ohio is always behind on these things. So we almost never get to test big ticket items/new tech. The only exception I know of is the hydrogen Honda. Supposedly, it was offered locally as a lease, because Battelle Memorial Institute has a hydrogen refueling station. However, they did not advertise the program, or I would have been severely tempted to try it (it was not listed in our local paper until WAY after the fact). At least they had a reason to limit areas of operation – not everywhere has hydrogen refueling stations. Which leads to…
4) Elitism. Why California, New York/New Jersey? Why not Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania? Or North Dakota, South Dakota, and Hawaii? The view from many I’ve talked to here in the middle of the country is that, since celebrities and many of the fairly rich live in these states, they get offered opportunities we never do. Yes, I understand that these people get an insane amount of publicity, so the vehicles also get a lot of free press. It still stinks of elitism. Instead of being able to drive one of these cars, I get to listen while Jamie Lee Curtis and Jay Leno get to talk about their hydrogen Hondas, knowing the rest of us will probably never get any closer to that tech than listening to two celebs talk about their special, “eco-friendly” cars. Unless, of course, we save, scrimp, and wait patiently for oil prices to skyrocket to the point where hydrogen cars are no longer the “tech of the future”.
This is one of the reasons I have been doing my darnedest to wait for the Volt and the suite of electric cars coming out in 2010. My wife would probably still want me to hold off buying one until the model is “proven”, but I don’t want to wait. I want to be in the forefront, to show my students that I want to help develop new tech where I can.
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January 7th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Totally in agreement with #84. I am a Californian currently living in silicon valley, but as a college student am in no position to even think about leasing a car like the Mini. I get sick of the incredible arrogance of some of the upper-middle class Prius-owning individuals here who malign the “unwashed masses” of the rest of America for not being green enough. Sorry, but most people simply can’t spend a bazillion dollars on solar panels and expensive cars at this point (although no doubt some people could do better). That is why we need to work together to get cheaper green tech that benefits everyone, not make snide elitist remarks about people less fortunate than oneself! All this does is alienate people and *delay* environmental progress. A true green person wants tech for the masses, not to lord it over them in their Prius with a fancy hybrid sticker and carpool lane pass.
PS. I almost crossed the street in front of a Tesla the other day on campus because I couldn’t hear it coming. I thought it was sooo cool to see it outside of an event of some sort, but it did make me think twice about electric car sound generation. As a young person with good hearing, I used to dismiss EV silence as a stupid issue, but I can totally see how it could be a problem now. Any thoughts?
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January 7th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
@ccombs 85
“I used to dismiss EV silence as a stupid issue”
Everytime I hear about this issue it reminds me of the times when as kids we’d duct tape my parents playing cards to the fork of our bikes to just slap the spokes to make noise.
lol
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January 7th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
40. unni Says: “…Do i spend 10k every 10 year for change of battery ? menas i need to save 1k per annun for this. This is also an expence need to count and the retail value of car goes down in 10 years because of this reason itself.”
—————————————————
Do you really intend to keep this car for longer than 10 years? If you do, I think you are in the minority.
All of the cars that I have owned (foreign and domestic) have started to have major and/or frequent problems around 10 years. I think most of us have had that old car that is banged up, has lots of annoying problems, and seems to be in the shop every few months for $1,000-$2,000 dollars worth of repairs. And then you reallize that for a modest down-payment and a few hundred dollars a month in loan payments, you can eliminate that drain on your time, budget and psyche with a shiny new car. The Volt will be no different–you ditch it once the battery goes and move on just like you would with a ten year old ICE car that suddenly needs a new transmission, engine, or whatever.
And as to the retail value of a Volt after 10 years… who cares. Most cars aren’t worth more than a few thousand dollars after 10 years anyway.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
Prius owners bought them like hotcakes here in the midwest when gas approached 3.00 a gallon.If we can get people back to work (not wal-mart wages ) and with lower mortgage rates helping their budgets we will see huge sales of ev’s,bev’s hev’s abcdev’s or whatever they are go through the roof, waiting for GM to catch up with our Volt.If the price of the Volt really does go over 30k,I will drive my old wagon until there is an upgrade hev kit for 10k installed.
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January 7th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Limited range, custom charging installation in the garage, and a lease with no option to buy. These were the three reasons I skipped the EV-1 when it was announced. However, I understand why some would want to drive a MINI EV in 2009. They will have a blast being the first to experience an all electric MINI. Their experiences will help the public understand the limits of BEV and the flexibility of E-REV.
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January 8th, 2009 at 8:01 am
#60 nuclearboy is exactly right. GM will not be able to produce this car in large numbers in the short term. There will be plenty of buyers for those cars. The government rebate (subsidy) will help and is absolutely necessary—it is the function of government to concern itself with the common good and the development of the electric car as soon as possible is definitely in the interests of the US. The costs will absolutely go down (rapidly I think) and production capacity and sales will go up. As battery capacity increases, the all-electric car will be feasible and costs will be reduced further. I would not be surprised if in 20-30 years electric vehicles predominate. Once they are competitive we may even see the ICE prohibited.
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January 8th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
As strongly as I believe in the electric car revolution, $850/mo for thin tiny car is rediculous…I don’t care how much technology and pure EV range it has.
It’s too bad, because the longest trip that I take by car is 35 miles. This car would have been a good fit for me…for a year…
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January 8th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
I am currently trying to figure out how I can put Solar panels on my Roof. The thought of producing my own fuel is very intriguing. On that note I signed up for collective solar buying at:
http://www.1bog.org/
Collective solar buying? Is there hugging involved? Do you need to know the words to Kumbayah?
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January 8th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Paying $850 per month was the killer. Who wants to help pay BMW’s R&D costs and not be on the payroll? As the wise man says, LEASE is just a 5 letter word for RENT. That comes out to over $10K to RENT this vehicle for 1 year. I am an ex-Mini Cooper owner and would love to own an electric Mini Cooper. Bring on the electric Mini Cooper BMW, but please make it affordable.
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January 9th, 2009 at 9:42 am
Due to fuel price decrease in my country government took opportunity to increase fuel tax by 0,15 EUR/liter on Christmas. Total fuel price including VAT is around 1 EURO/Liter. Nobody complaining. It is better send cash to own government than to Arabs or Russians. With this price EV is quite attractive. Send Volt to Europe. What for Obama is waiting?
And vice versa – everybody shall know that EV if become real issue will be tool of pressing oil demand and consequently oil prices down. And again – fuel tax in US is absolutely necessary and will help avoiding blackmailing of western world. Free trade is O.K. but only on fair basis.
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April 24th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
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#87 says:
“All of the cars that I have owned (foreign and domestic) have started to have major and/or frequent problems around 10 years. I think most of us have had that old car that is banged up, has lots of annoying problems, and seems to be in the shop every few months for $1,000-$2,000 dollars worth of repairs. And then you reallize that for a modest down-payment and a few hundred dollars a month in loan payments, you can eliminate that drain on your time, budget and psyche with a shiny new car. The Volt will be no different–you ditch it once the battery goes and move on just like you would with a ten year old ICE car that suddenly needs a new transmission, engine, or whatever.”
My preferred transport for the past 18 years has been sub-ton ’80s Hondas whose only relationship to your comments is the cost of dealing well with rust issues. I’m saving up for a MkI Insight which I figure can get a PHEV conversion at some point, and in future years get a EREV/BEV conversion since Insights don’t know how to rust and have already often proven as eternally reliable as the mid-80s Hondas I’m used to. Adding xEVs to America’s Disposable Society’s list of ingredients is not much of an answer to anything IMHO. Disposable, low resale value cars via low-grade engineering is what brought the American car industry to this point in the first place, and why I switched to Hondas so long ago. While I understand xEVs are seen by industry as much more like laptop computers than ICE cars regarding reliability and upgrades, IMHO it is vital that an xEV, especially BEV, typically prove as reliable as an old Honda or a good memory chip especially for non-battery components. There is no reason for this to not be the case. Mass adoption will be determined by earned reputation.
While you are correct that almost noone keeps a car for more than ten years, and most cars are junked before they see a decade of use, it a car’s ability to keep going well past that decade mark if asked to that is key to market perception of that car. That is a main reason Toyota eventually starting out-selling GM.
The main concern of most MkI Insight purchasers and would-be purchasers is the battery pack, not the rest of the car. This is how it must be for vehicles with a more solid-state nature than purely ICE vehicles. As folks expect compact flash -based hard drives to be more efficient and reliable than spinning-disk hard drives (while costing more), xEVs must earn a reputation for utter, total reliability.
The engineering around battery packs must not be lifetime-limited to match the battery pack. That will kill the future of xEVs.
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wwskinn3 Says:
January 7th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
“I’m still waiting for the first wrecked one at the junk yard so I can get the components. Perhaps put it in an old Mustang II.”
NNNNOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!! What a perfect way to keep us tethered to Desert Islam’s oil, if an oversized Pinto is what you want EVs associated with! Uuuurrrrgghhhhhhh!!!!!
Regards,
Roger
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September 5th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
My thought is that if you use the sun, 4 mototss with two used as generators when turning, and wind through the grill to turn an alternator, you may possibly achieve a vehicle that never needs to be pluged in.
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September 5th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
supose you were to add a wind powered alternator withsolor cells to recharge, and use 4 motors with two used as generators while cornoring, you may be close to free energy or perpetual motion as you cqn come.
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