Late Thursday when the Senate failed to pass legislation to give GM emergency aid, the Treasury and the Bush Administration stepped in and agreed to consider giving GM and Chrysler loans from the $700 Wall Street Bailout or TARP fund.
During the prior weeks of negotiations in the Congress, despite pleas from the Democrats to do so, the White House repeatedly refused to give money from that source to the automakers stating that it was only intended for the financial industry.
However at this point, as GM will cease being able to operate by the end of this month, triggering a cascade of failures likely leading to the loss of millions of jobs and billions in revenue, it seems the Fed has no choice and has pulled a 180.
On Friday the Bush administration agreed to consider using the TARP funds to bailout the automakers.
So whats going on there right now?
Sources familiar with the present activity advise me that GM is and will be “working hard through the weekend with treasury on the details, terms and conditions.” Furthermore those sources tell me that there is some optimism that we will ” see something early next week,” and that GM will likely prevail.
Obviously the clock is rapidly ticking against GM with only 12 more business days in the month of December, so this is literally as down to the wire as you could get.
A senior White House official told CNN Saturday “we’re gathering and reviewing information and data about the automakers’ true financial situation, and what their near-term future really is, and then we’ll consider our options for assisting them. We’re working on it, but I can’t give a sense of timing until we know more.”
It isn’t clear whether GM will receive enough just to get the to the Obama administration and the new Congress, enough to get them through the end of the 1st quarter of 2009, or nothing at all.
It is clear that the Treasury will seek to enforce debtholders to accept reductions similar to those outlined in last week’s Republican plan, including reducing GM’s healthcare obligation debt to the UAW to half. Under TARP the Treasury has the authority to enforce concessions from the creditors and union.
Financial and political posts may not as much interest the technology-oriented but remember the mission statement of this site is “real-time news information and discussion about the Chevy Volt”. No GM, No Volt.
UPDATE: President Bush is now in Iraq and his spokesperson Dana Perino said with respect to the auto bailout, “I don’t anticipate anything before we return.” The White House has not said when Bush will be returning. (AFP)
This entry was posted on Sunday, December 14th, 2008 at 8:19 am and is filed under Financial, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Dec 14th, 2008 (9:11 am)NEW THREAD>>>>REPOST<<<<<<
Posted at end of last thead, but not sure it posted? Is the site VERY slow for anyone else?
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90 RB
“As people have said many times on this blog, there are a lot of details, especially in software-hardware relationships, that have to be perfected through some cycles of trial and error”
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RB, one thing I can guarentee you is that the software will NEVER be COMPLETE. The software will reach a “release” state at some point, but it will NEVER reach be complete.
The motor control algorithms for ac induction motors have been around for 25+ years, and they have been running successfully in factories with “incomplete” software. These algorithms are in a constant state of “tweaking”.
I would believe that the actual motor control software is “released”, but the unique methods of the power transfers between pure battery and generator are still being refined (I know Lutz has mentioned this long ago, about how their is a noticable affect when the generator kicks in, so they are probably working that still)
In my past life I did work on testing of the Boeing 747-400 back in the 80’s. This aircraft was the first, true parallel system. The 747-400 has 4 engines and an APU (Aux power unit), and the trick to achieving a true parallel system was the need to transfer power to separate busses (5 of them, 4 for the main engine, 1 for the APU). The turbine shaft drove a mechanical CSD (Constant Speed Drive), which generated the 400 hz used on aircraft. To transfer power you first have to sync up a bus, which meant modulating the speed of your CSD’s. The Boeing aircraft was able to work in any of the possible configurations (full parallel, split bus, separate bus) to keep the aircraft powered up. You really do not want to lose power to your avionics, but if the passenger losing his video display was acceptable in emergencies. Oh, I forgot about the ground power transfer, since the aircraft actually would be required to make a seemless power transfer from the ground cart to the APU or the main engines. Oh, yeah do not forget about the RAT (Ram Air Turbine), if you are unlucky enough to be on a plane and they deploy the RAT it’s time to place head between your legs and ….. The RAT will drop out of the nose of the aircraft if all other power sources fail. The quality of power from the RAT is crap at best, but it will let the guys in the cockpit have a chance to keep the bird in the air. (Oh the stories of the RAT….are incredible and I have not the time our typing skill to tap those in…).
Anyway, what was the point….oh yeah. The Volts software state and the difficulty of those power transfers. The 747-400 controlling software is orders of magnitude more complex than any previous used on any aircraft. My rough estimate as far as lines of code and amount of testing and redundacy would be at least an order of magnitude greater then any previous split bus power control algorithms.
I expect the Volts software will not be as complex as a 747-400, but compared to any other control algorithms, I am sure GM has its hands full.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (9:44 am)Expect a statement from the Bush Administration sometime tomorrow (Monday) at the earliest.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (9:54 am)Even the French say the Volt concept makes sense. Seems like Europe is really getting behind this concept.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37f1f624-c7b0-11dd-b611-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
I know it’s irrelevant to this thread, but I’m tired and just ready to get it over with, whatever the result.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:04 am)I suppose, now that he’s destroyed the Republican Party, Bush is going to fumble the ball yet again thru sheer ignorance. He’s going to bail out the economically non-viable automakers rather than alow corker’s scheme that would actually accomplish a lot of good by 1) removing 60% of the $65 billion debt that GM can’t possibly handle this side of a bankruptcy court and 2) force the UAW pirates and price fixers into getting wages only 5 times what those unskilled, uneducated, nonproductive union “workers” would otherwise be paid by a rational free labor market. Looks like the union got 100%
ownership of the Dems thru their campaign contributions and got
Bush the Fool’s support by fooling him into beliving that onlycash will save the automakers. CAsh will destroy the automakers since it solves nothing. The US auto industry has shrunk to half of what it once was and there is zero possibility of it ever growing again as long as the UAW exists. How about enforcing some of those federal laws against monopolistic oractices, price fixingof labor rates, restraint of free trade, and a few dozen other Federal laws that unions violate every day of the week. Now that the bought-and-paid-for democrats are in power, the consumer will either be screwed by auto costs or have to pay taxes to keep the losing US automakers afloat. This political system sucks. Totally sucks.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:04 am)Speaking of the Europeans … check out this article from a German newspaper about what needs to be done in the next few years to transform GM into a highly respected, successful car company again.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,596145,00.html
“The business model now declares that anything unnecessary for driving can be cut or milled away — and the creativity of years past has disappeared, along with attention to detail. The slouching aesthetics of the cars is just part of the bargain. But the business model couldn’t last.”
“He (Bill Gates) said his most important helpers in business were not software engineers, or even his own talents, but dissatisfied customers. He listened in on his company’s phone bank, heard the curses and outraged voices of his customers, and tried to learn something.”
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:22 am)#1 JEC Interesting Post
#4 Kent – I agree with much of what you say but this is the system we have, we get what we vote for. The world seems upside down now but this economic crisis may force us to finally address our own problems.
We need a massive nuclear power construction program, not some green wave rubbish from dilettantes, and we need leadership into the electric car market as a national strategy for our own well being. This is something government should be able to encourage (with money) as the free market does not exist in fuel and we cannot rely on market forces to select the most efficient alternative.
The White House may be able to get some money to car makers for EREV work and trim the UAW sails at the same time. If GM disappears it will be a very long time until a new American car company can emerge. Maybe they could break up into pieces and try to go forward. I think the Volt could attract venture capital if it was free of GM’s problem legacy costs.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:25 am)_____________________________________________________
Lyle wrote: “However at this point, as GM will cease being able to operate by the end of this month, triggering a cascade of failures likely leading to the loss of millions of jobs and billions in revenue, it seems the Fed has no choice and has pulled a 180.”
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The Bush economic policy has evolved into the Federal Government to guarantee that large private institutions don’t fail by obligating taxpayers to guarantee $billions and $billions and $billions in forward NOL (net operating loss) financing to keep those institutions operating. I guess Bush believes that if federal deficit spending is good for the country then it must also be good for private industry. Does anybody see the monumental fallacy in this? Is Bush destroying the free markets by ignorance or design? I’m going to buy some gold and burry it in my yard…
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:25 am)#1 JEC Says: “… one thing I can guarantee you is that the software will NEVER be COMPLETE. The software will reach a “release” state at some point, but it will NEVER reach be complete.
The motor control algorithms for ac induction motors have been around for 25+ years, and they have been running successfully in factories with “incomplete” software. These algorithms are in a constant state of “tweaking”.
I would believe that the actual motor control software is “released”, but the unique methods of the power transfers between pure battery and generator are still being refined…”
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Yes, they’ll be tweaking all the firmware until the last second, and then they’ll release firmware updates that will be installed by the dealer service dept.. This is already the norm with many of today’s cars.
Although motor control algorithms for ac induction motors have been around for 25+ years, powering ac induction motors from dc batteries for car use seems fairly recent. When you factor in braking, acceleration, temperatures, efficiency, etc., it appears to get very complicated.
As for how the generator, battery, and motor work together, I’ve come up with some diagrams to help us understand this. Take a look and let me know if something doesn’t look right.
http://mysite.verizon.net/vzenu6hr/ebay_pictures/Volt_Electrical_Block_Diagram.jpg
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:36 am)BAIT-N-SWITCH.
Checks and balances are DEAD in America.
R.I. P. Constitutionally guaranteed rights and freedoms.
Goodbye rule of law.
Hello corporate (not)wel(un)fare.
Hello Socialism.
We all know that GM will get the fiat $Dollars that were supposed to go toward keeping people in their homes. GM will quickly BLOW it on over-priced (noncompetitive) socialist labor unions and they will come back for more, and more, and more.
Sooner or later Congress will be forced to turn away the beggars and THEN they will go through bankruptcy reorganization. But they will have already nationalized and wasted $BILIONS on the industry.
Will we get the Volt? Yes.
Well we be able to afford them? No.
Why? Because our fiat dollars will not have enough buying power left to buy food much less over priced high-tech cars. Obama’s New-New Deal will only throw MORE fiat dollars in the market and once the world realizes that we can’t pay our debts, those US $Dollars abroad will come home to be added to the NEW ones being printed and we will be facing Hyperinflation.
This is a VERY good article. READ IT!!!
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:45 am)I am in favor for the bailout only to help this country not the auto makers. The resulting unempoyment could push this country into a depression. That will affect all of us whether you have a job or not.
# 4 Kent you show your ignorance by calling all union workers unskilled and uneducated. A little bitter there Kent.
By the way I am a computer programmer and have no ties to the auto industry or unions. Bush does not want to go out being known as the president that pushed this country into a depression.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:50 am)There is no way I would buy GM right now. 1) It’s too freezing cold here in the North to buy a car. 2) GM cannot be profitable until the UAW makes some MEANINGFUL concessions (cuts in retirement and health care that REALLY hurt). 3) ditto for GM’s management.
Lyle says “It is clear that the Treasury will seek to enforce debtholders to accept reductions similar to those outlined in last week’s Republican plan, including reducing GM’s healthcare obligation debt to the UAW to half. Under TARP the Treasury the authority to enforce concessions from the creditors and union.”
I say ALL of GM’s obligations should be cut by half, including UAW dues, health care benefits, RETIREMENT benefits (Lyle forgot to include this in the quote above), contractor debts, supplier debts, department budgets, executive and managerial salaries (not just the top executives), in short – all debts cut 50 percent across the board. And that’s just to start, if GM remains unprofitable.
If the UAW doesn’t like that, well UAW, there’s the door – don’t let it hit you on the way out. Saving GM requires a painful shared sacrifice, which includes the UAW. Without painful sacrifice (doing away with “job banks” doesn’t even come close, UAW), GM will not survive.
Or GM could liquidate, leaving GM employees broke, without health care, and GM retirees would never see another retirement check in the mail, and send the UAW into bankruptcy. The union and it’s members have delayed making any tough choices because they expect a bailout to save them. In a world without congressional intervention (and no hope of any bailout), GM’s rank and file UAW members might have already made the sacrifices needed to keep GM alive. The current bailout proposals do nothing but delay the inevitable.
Both GM and the UAW need a bankruptcy supervised intervention to save GM. Neither one has the courage and moral integrity to make the tough choices. The cuts MUST be even – NO exceptions for retirees or anyone else. This may seem harsh, but the alternative is NO retirement check at all. A no-brainer for anyone who hasn’t been brainwashed by the UAW.
Any plan for GM’s survival must also include a provision to reassign Rick Wagoner to another job – counting ceiling tiles, repainting parking lot lines, ANY job that doesn’t allow him to make a decision affecting GM. We have all seen the results of Rick’s “decisions” – disaster.
And for all the talk about “no one will buy a car from a car company in bankruptcy” – no one is going to buy a GM car now ! Given the choice, would you buy a car from a company going through a Chapter 11 restructuring, or from a company that refuses to change, and will be liquidated when it’s bailout money runs out in March 2009 or sooner ? With Chapter 11, the company might come out leaner and stronger. With a immediate bailout, there will be vast anger from the public when Rick Wagoner comes back to Washington in 2009, tin cup in hand, saying “More, please”. Personally, I won’t buy any GM product until Rick Wagoner is GONE. Rick Wagoner has done to GM what the 9/11 terrorists did to United Airlines Flight 93 – ran GM right into the ground, with full knowledge of what he was doing. As long as Rick got his millions, who cares about GM ? GM cannot survive with Rick in charge – period.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (11:02 am)#10 Ed Says: “Bush does not want to go out being known as the president that pushed this country into a depression.”
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Yes.
I think U.S. news outlets are also starting to change their tune. At first, they echoed many knee-jerk negative reactions to the bailout. Now, they are starting to look at the ripple effects, the truth is starting to sink in, and they’re starting to get scared like the economists.
There is no Chapter 11 scenario for GM. If GM goes bankrupt, it will lead to their liquidation, and GM will exist no more. Then the suppliers will fail. Then Chrysler and Ford. 3 million more people unemployed. Taxpayers will have to make up over $100B in unemployment benefits and lost income tax revenue.
And that all assumes that this negative impact doesn’t spill over into other sectors.
Bottom line: A GM bankruptcy would cause a depression. That’s why economists are so scared.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (11:16 am)#12 Dave G says “There is no Chapter 11 scenario for GM.”
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Please explain why you say it is impossible (cannot be done under any circumstances) for Gm to reorganize under Chapter 11.
If your “explanation” is just a rehash of “no one buys from a company in bankruptcy”, please don’t bother replying. I already refuted that argument in #11.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (11:18 am)#4 – You’re always free to run for office and try to change things. Then again, you’re also free to move out.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (11:41 am)The more I think about this the more I am totally against ANY assistance even if it means I never get my Volt. Over the past 50 years GM has blocked, strong armed and stifled every attempt to make their industry safer and more efficient. Their response to any new technology or safety proposal is to flood Washington with lobbyists and overwhelm the courts with lawsuits to fight it. They had every chance to change over the years but took the wrong path. They are truly a dinosaur and a monument to old style obsolete business models. No matter how many jobs are lost, they deserve no help from us because they have never given one thought to the public until now when they want our money.
I am emailing my congress reps and the white house to voice my opposition to giving them any money. And if they get money, I will be boycotting GM and the big 3 and enouraging all my friends and neighbors to do the same. It’s called accountability for your actions GM. You don’t deserve our money anymore – be it tax money or car sales.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (11:49 am)The sad fact is that we have been living in a world of make-believe for a decade. By relying on debt, we gave ourselves the illusion of more wealth than we actually had. This resulted in overproduction of goods and services of every type and description. We now have more of everything than we can truly afford. We have more houses, apartments, hotel rooms, airplanes, resort properties, dining establishments, strip malls, boutique stores than the economy can truly support.
Thus, there must be a recession. A recession always follows a debt/credit bubble.
The sad fact is that we have vastly more automotive production capacity than is needed. Gravity is going to re-assert itself one way or the other.
If we try to prop up the entire U.S. or world economy, then we will ruin our financial system (the dollar, etc). The much safer approach is to actually let the market clean itself up. Let the more strongly capitalized businesses remain. Let the weaker ones fail.
I would get the bailout money back from the banks. I would not bail out another company or institution. Instead, I would use the money to help actual Americans who are hurt by this economic restructuring. We could use the bailout money to provide temporary assistance for food, rent, and health care insurance premiums. In return, recipients may be asked to work for the assistance (a la the new deal).
It is going to be a hard time one way or the other. All these stimulus packages just delay the inevitable. We cannot keep borrowing our way to prosperity. We could not do it as individuals or as companies, and we will not be able to do it as a country. The music will stop at some point. By pushing the risk onto the government, we endanger the entire world financial system and risk making the dollar worthless. It could cause an economic collapse that is unprecedented.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (11:49 am)13 Grump:
It is impossible because nobody is going to loan GM the money to make it through reorganization, unless its the government and then it would be to the tune of $117 billion. (Government would have to take over pensions and retiree obligations plus provide the financial capital for GM to reorganize)
Which banks are going to loan a company who is eating through 3-4 billion A MONTH money to reorganize? It would be a race between reorganizing and creditors whose only hope for getting payment in the next 10 years would be to carve up GM’s corpse in Chapter 7 for 25-50 cents on the dollar.
You are also not considering suppliers in a Chapter 11…if GM owes me, to keep it easy, $100,000.00 and slides into bankruptcy…am I going to increase that $100,000.00 to $300,000.00 or $500,000.00 in order to keep them going through the duration of a reorganization with the terms that I will be paid back whenever they can? No businessperson who can easily adjust his production rates is going to take that particular gamble. They will lay off, trim their production lines and hope the business can survive the reduction in sales after getting their cut from the liquidation of GM’s assets.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (11:58 am)#1 JEC – Software complexity
The control software will be difficult, particularly since they’re interested in also incorporating GPS and directional information into the mix (near home mode Lutz has talked about).
But the complexity of the control system on an E-REV should be less than that on a PHEV. That PHEVs have many points of contact between the ICE and the battery assist since the ICE is constantly kicking in and out. That seems more complex because of the number of interactions.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (12:11 pm)The Republicans see the union movement as not only a natural constituency of the Democratic Party, but also as one of the major—actually, the only large major organized relatively-progressive movement in the United States. And, they need to get rid of that if they are going to get power.
Number one, it does away with the union movement and, number two, all the profits from those companies then go to countries outside the United States. So, it’s a slow bleeding of the country.
Read Alexander Hamilton’s 1791 report to Congress on manufacturers. Hamilton laid out this six-step plan to build an industrial economy in the United States. And, we followed it. Congress actually put it into place in 1792 and it stood until Ronald Reagan came along and started deconstructing this, followed by George Herbert Walker Bush, Bill Clinton and George Bush, now, and the legislatures, mostly pushed by the Republicans, taking this thing apart. I mean, you could argue that some it started with Taft-Hartley. But, basically, the Founders laid this thing out; they had it figured out. And, it worked. We built the biggest industrial infrastructure, industrial economy in the world. We have gone—when Reagan came into office we were the largest exporter of manufacturing goods and the largest importer of raw materials on the planet. And, the largest creditor—more people owed us money than anybody else in the world. Now, just 28 years later, we’re the largest importer of finished goods, manufactured goods; the largest exporter of raw materials—which is kind of the definition of a third-world nation—and we’re the most in-debt of any country in the world. This is the absolute consequence of Reaganomics.
–Thom Hartmann
Why are Republicans opposed to helping the auto industry?
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Dec 14th, 2008 (12:14 pm)In any case whatever they get will only tide them over until Obama is in office. He has said a number of times that he is not in favor of giving money to nonviable companies so they are going to have to get viable.
A big part of this will be taking health care costs off the back of business. It is an accident of history that put health care costs there in the first place. Not only does it make our businesses less competetive than any other countries businesses, because they don’t pay for health care, but it also motivates companies to work their employees longer hours instead of hiring more workers because of the overhead per worker.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (12:18 pm)#16 o. jeff – “If we try to prop up the entire U.S. or world economy, then we will ruin our financial system (the dollar, etc). The much safer approach is to actually let the market clean itself up. Let the more strongly capitalized businesses remain. Let the weaker ones fail.”
You do realize of course that this is mainstream and accepted economic theory … for 1929. Which of course turns out to be a tried and true recipe for failure. Hoover tried it. It failed. Roosevelt tried it. It failed. Then Roosevelt tried the opposite and … it worked!
We understand enough enough about macroeconomics at this point to know that once you are in a liquidity trap the way out is to spend your way out. It’s like responding to an ambush. You do the counter intuitive thing and walk into the fire — because that’s the way out.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (12:19 pm)#11 The grump “….RETIREMENT benefits” cut in half. I can accept a variety of opinions on most topics. One thing I don’t agree with, no matter the circumstances, is changing the rules of the game long after it is over. If the choice is between failure and staying true to your original deal to those who made it, many moons ago, you stay true to your word. Period.
Do whatever is necessary, but retirees are exactly that–they put in their dues and deserve the deal granted to them when they left (or they may have opted to WORK longer and save more). I’m a long way from retiring, but when I do I hope the generations to follow have enough human dignity to honor any commitments made before them. Grump, you are pathetic.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (12:29 pm)D LO –
Actually Grump is being realistic. If GM goes into bankrupsy the retirees could lose it all (except for the government pension guarentees which I don’t know the amout covered). It is no longer about honoring agreements, it is trying to salvage what can be salvaged.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (12:35 pm)Dear Comrades especially you Republicosaks who have approved welfare for the rich. Before Bushki got into politics he failed in the business world first in oil and then in baseball and both of those times his daddy’s rich friends bailed him out. Who ever heard of a country having tax breaks during a war. WAKE UP YOU MAY NOT IIKE THE DEMOCRATS BUT YOU REPUBLICANS HAVE DESTROYED THIS COUNTRY ENJOY THE RIDE. You will believe that as GM goes so goes the country we are all BROKE, Oh and a side note guess who was in power the last time we had a depression THE REPUBLICANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Dec 14th, 2008 (12:39 pm)I just looked up the Pension Benifit Guarentee Program and it looks like it covers about 90% and it is funded by insurance not by the taxpayers. That is a relief. I wonder if the insurance is held by AIG?
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Dec 14th, 2008 (1:10 pm)It sounds crazy, but if the entire TARP amount of $700 billion was given to produce Volts–every taxpayer in America would receive one and we’d rid ourselves of oil. That would solve so many problems. Crazy and a little socialistic I know…but just think.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (1:11 pm)I’ve always thought that anyone who puts their retirement into the hands of a single company is either naive or mentally deficient. They can either take cuts or get nothing for their short sightedness.
#24 I hate to be the one to have to point this out to you but this whole financial crisis can’t be blamed on the republicans any more than the democrats. Unless clinton and cater were also republicans. This has been long in the making and they’re all guilty.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (1:25 pm)#8 Dave G
Your diagrams look pretty close to what you would expect. I see a few things though. For example the generator produces an ac output, so the output of the generator would need a front end converter section (rectify ac to dc). This seems simple, BUT my question is how do they do this? A typical ac electronic drive uses a full wave bridge rectifier, and the rectified ac becomes dc, but you need a capacitor bank, since the output would simply be 1/2 wave rectified with lots of ripple. So, now they would need some capacitance in this converter module. Well, if you got capacitance and your using it in extended mode, why not take advantage of that capacitance for regen? This would seem a very good thing, since when in regen the batteries are very limited in the amount of energy they can “absorb”, but capacitor can respond almost instantaneously. Therefore you would be able to recover more of the regenerative braking energy (that’s a good thing!).
Anyway, in my opinion this gets back to the heart of the control software, and how it handles these scenarios.
Also you said “Although motor control algorithms for ac induction motors have been around for 25+ years, powering ac induction motors from dc batteries for car use seems fairly recent.”
The fact that you have a battery source versus a capacitor bank should not impact the core control algorithm, but the challenge is, in my opinion, the power transfer methodologies.
Anyway, I am very interested in seeing how they solve these problems.
One other comment regarding the complexity of the control algorithms of the Volt versus typical industrial ac induction motor application. The Volt should be significantly simpler due to the single fact, that on the Volt you have all the electrical characteristics of the motor and wiring. These would be things such as wiring inductance, motor magnetizing currents, and many other critical parameters needed to tune an electrical system. In a generic industrial control these variables are not fixed. You have controllers that must adapt to different motor parameters and wiring. The same industrial controller will control motors in the 50-150 HP range, and the wiring may be anywhere from a few feet to several hundred. Even the manuf of the motor will have affects on the control, since they all vary in electrical characteristics.
So for the Volt guys this should be a piece of cake, and I like cake!
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Dec 14th, 2008 (1:27 pm)1929 is not 2008. In 1929, the USA had a high savings rate and was a creditor nation. In 2008, we are the world’s largest debtor nation and have had a negative savings rate (until just the last few months when the “debt merchants” began to withhold their product from the market).
Note that I do not advocate cutting government spending, merely that the spending should be reserved for need-based welfare programs for those who are laid off during the economic restructuring that is happening now and will be happening for 5-10 years. We should not be attempting to bailout anything. Debt is what got us into this problem, debt will not get us out.
By the way, when companies liquidate, new owners will pick up their assets for pennies on the dollar, unburdened by debt, and will make a strong and successful business.
Please be careful. The modern world has never seen a massive credit bubble burst in a total fiat (paper) money system. The last time this happened (GD I), we were on the gold standard, which moderated the effects of the crisis. This is an unprecedented global event.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (1:35 pm)Automobiles are very expensive to own. Many families ended up operating pretty large fleets of vehicles during the boom years. Three, four, five vehicle families are not uncommon. As salaries contract and layoffs multiply, one of the first things to do will be to sell the cars. This means, that in addition to recent overproduction, there will also be a huge glut of used cars available at very low prices. In other words, the demand for cars will fall even below steady-state future needs for some period of time.
And, because the availability of credit will be permanently reduced, the number of cars needed even in the long term steady state is reduced. Propping up an automotive industry that has too much capacity for years and years is just not reasonable.
The typewriter factory workers eventually did something else when demand for typewriters fell.
Obvioiusly, cars won’t fall to zero like typewriters, but the idea is similar. We certainly should not have advocated propping up the typewriter manufaturers
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Dec 14th, 2008 (1:37 pm)#29 o. jeff – “Note that I do not advocate cutting government spending, merely that the spending should be reserved for need-based welfare programs for those who are laid off during the economic restructuring that is happening now and will be happening for 5-10 years.”
Do you want 3 million people working and paying taxes or do you want 3 million on welfare? The cost is the same. The auto industry has a high multiplier, around $1.65, and it’s far more cost effective to keep them working than to create jobs from scratch. It’s estimated that a stimulus package of $700B will create 2.1M jobs. A bailout of $75B (forget $15B) will retain 3M jobs. A simple cost benefit analysis indicates which is better.
The fact is that if Detroit doesn’t start bringing out vehicles that match their cost structure they’ll go bust in a few years. But if the financing system is again working this will be no big deal. Timing is everything.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (1:38 pm)Looks like this is going to get dragged out as long as possible:
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Bush Postpones Decision on TARP for Auto Makers
The Bush administration, worried about a further blow to the US economy, said it was ready to step in and prevent the auto industry from collapsing, likely using the $700 billion Wall Street bailout fund.
On Saturday, however, the White House said that no decision had yet been made on how to proceed with a bailout of ailing U.S. auto makers and that the administration would take time to do it right.
And by Sunday, when President Bush arrived in Baghdad for an unannounced farewell visit, the White House was saying that no decision willl be made until Bush returns from Iraq.
“I don’t anticipate anything before we return … I just don’t expect anything for a while,” White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters on Air Force One before Bush landed in Baghdad.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28193063
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I’m guessing we are going to see another ‘We are running out of money, gives us some money already’ statement from GM tomorrow. GM has got to be very close to the level of coming up short on ‘hard’ bill payments, that could trigger bad things.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (1:43 pm)#27 Jeremy & Len, All
I think I understand where you are coming from, my perspective is that the retiree benefits should be absolutely last. Generally, in the United States we start with those who have the most means, the highest paid. Then we go to those who have the most potential–borrow from our kids–they’ll pay it back. Then we go to the middle class. If that fails, even the working class take another unneeded blow. Leave the retirees–of all classes–last.
No one asked a single person at JP Morgan to give up tuition reimbursement, adoption benefits, 401k match, or even bonuses. Yet we handed over $25 billion in taxpayer dollars to what is a fundamentally sound, well run business. If we are going to do something for GM, to protect the interest of all Americans, for god’s sake do it with some dignity and honor the arrangements made to those who have the least means to mitigate the damage.
As the brilliant minds here have noted, the real problem isn’t the expense line, it is the revenue. You can slash retiree costs to zero, it still won’t make up for the lack of sales.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (1:48 pm)#22 D LO says – Grump, you are pathetic.
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I say – Well, at least I know who’s been drinking the UAW Kool-aid. When they can’t win the argument, they start name-calling. Using insults instead of rational arguments – that’s what is truly pathetic.
Look, if GM gets its bailout money, and nothing changes, Rick will be back in Washington with his tin cup, asking for more and more. People are already sick of this bailout stuff – imagine the voter’s anger after the $25 billion bailout (bailing out the UAW, over $70 an hour for screwing on lug nuts, too many dealers, retirees not sharing the pain, corporate waste, etc), when Rick comes back in March 2009 (or sooner), asking for “More, please”. Remember, most voters only make a fraction of GM’s wages, and they’re angry about bailing out GM’s well-paid employees.
Everyone at GM (including retiree’s) must sacrifice to prove to America that they are serious about GM’s survival, because a second bailout in 2009 will be denied unless GM changes enough to put themselves on a fast track to profitability. If Gm keeps losing money, the March 2009 bailout will not happen (politicians DO want to get reelected), and GM will be bankrupt anyway, only a few months later.
A structured bankruptcy could be written to restore full health care and retirement benefits gradually, when GM returns to profitability. If the retired GM employees refuse to help save GM, they just might be the ones that finally destroy GM, and end their own GM benefits. By refusing to help GM, they would achieve a Pyrrhic victory – “We never conceded anything to GM, but in the end, we lost everything.”
BTW, instead of using it here, try calling your teacher, your boss, or just some random guys exiting Gold’s Gym “Pathetic”. You may be surprised at the open and honest responses you receive .
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Dec 14th, 2008 (2:02 pm)Unrelated, but maybe interesting if you are heading out to the Detroit Auto Show (or if your just hankering for some car news):
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2010 Prius to debut January 12, 2009 at 11:30am EST
Not everyone is bailing out of the 2009 Detroit Auto Show. Toyota will be their in force with it’s all new third (fourth according to Toyota) generation Prius as well as the new Lexus HS250h. We haven’t seen the full press conference schedule yet, but Toyota just sent out a note to let us know that its big show will take place on Monday Jan. 12, 2009 at 11:30 am to reveal the new Prius. The updated hybrid synergy drive is expected to yield both better performance and mileage. It will be interesting to see what the hybrid pioneers come up with in the way of driver information displays, to counter Ford’s SmartGauge and Honda’s EcoAssist on the new Insight. The Insight will be making it’s debut the day before the Prius and we’ll have full coverage along with driving impressions of that one. Stay tuned, for we live in very interesting times.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/12/12/detroit-preview-2010-prius-to-debut-january-12-2009-at-11-30am
Will be interesting to see pricing structure as well (I assume this is where they will release that info as well) and we will probably get some details on the ‘Plug-In Option’ for the fall of ‘09
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Dec 14th, 2008 (2:03 pm)34 The Grump
“BTW, instead of using it here, try calling your teacher, your boss, or just some random guys exiting Gold’s Gym “Pathetic”. You may be surprised at the open and honest responses you receive .”
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How true. It is so easy to say anything you want to anyone while sitting behind your keyboard. Would be fun if we could all sit in the same room with a laptop and see how the tone of the posts morph.
So do you think Statik is 6′6″ and 260 lbs? What a hoot that would be. A smart guy who could backup his posts with some brawn
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Dec 14th, 2008 (2:18 pm)The government will keep the auto makers around with bail out money until the economy picks up. Then they are on their own dime. The auto makers going belly up in normal times will not have the impact that it will now.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (2:21 pm)Lyle, some of my posts are not showing up!!!!!!!
Sorry, my bad, I was looking at the wrong topic, DUH!!!!!!
It must be that $70 an hour that everyone thinks I make.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (2:24 pm)38 J Man
You must have been naughty!
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Dec 14th, 2008 (2:33 pm)34 The Grump
Ah, you do have feelings and apparently I hurt them. I genuinely apologize.
36 JEC
“How true. It is so easy to say anything you want to anyone while sitting behind your keyboard.”
Very true, Easy to say screw the UAW, screw the executives, screw old people–lets throw in women while we are at it–when you don’t have to look them in the eyes, It would be fun to pontificate in front of the people who worked their entire lives and tell them “I don’t care–you get nothing. you lose. good day sir”. You may be surprised at the open and honest responses you receive
BTW, not a fan of the UAW. Again the reality is that even if all GM employees (Union included) worked for free GM would still be short. It is revenue, not costs, killing GM. They need sales, and appearing on the brink is not a good marketing strategy.
Moving on to the broader topic, the Bush administration taking its time is not helping matters. 30% of those who bought a Ford cited the threat of bankruptcy at other domestic manufacturers as a reason for buying Ford. The question is best answered now.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (2:38 pm)The Pension Benifit Guarentee Program probably won’t kick in unless GM goes bankrupt. As it is covered by insurance, I am pretty certain the conditions for the insurance company to pay would be bankrupsy not a negotiated settlement. The retirees may well be better off in a bankrupsy.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (2:41 pm)Statik #32
“GM has got to be very close to the level of coming up short on ‘hard’ bill payments, that could trigger bad things.”
If they weren’t before they will be very soon. Perhaps you guys discussed this on another post earlier this week. Some suppliers in the US have already switched to CIA or COD according to an article last week. As you well know, between this and Europe’s reinsurance issue (basically meaning COD over there soon or already) the descent will be rapid without $ very soon.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (2:47 pm)I don’t envy President-elect Obama’s situation once he’s sworn in. I didn’t vote for him, but now that he’s elected, he’s my president. He’s obviously inheriting many problems, that are not of his making, but on the other hand he’ll have all the Congressional tools (Pelosi and Reed) that he could want to implement his solutions (there are plenty of aisle-crossers to provide a super majority). As I said, he’s now my President and our country has all the resources it needs to conquer the crisis Du Jour. Let’s get on with it.
Be well,
Tag
LJGTVWOTR!! NPNS
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Dec 14th, 2008 (4:14 pm)#25 Len
I just looked up the Pension Benifit Guarentee Program and it looks like it covers about 90% and it is funded by insurance not by the taxpayers. That is a relief. I wonder if the insurance is held by AIG?
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Your coverage depends on your age. From talking to one of the benefit reps at the plant, the younger you are the less the will cover you. Someone younger than 60 would loose about 60% of their pension. The older you are the less you loose.
Example:
Bill is 56 and his monthly pension is $2800 per month (before taxes).
GM goes under and the gov’t takes over his pension.
He would now get around $1300 before taxes.
The way the gov’t looks at it, he is old enough to go out and get another job. It does not consider that he may have a health condition or a disability that may prevent him from getting another job. It does not consider that he looses his health care and will not be able to get any till he is old enough to get Medicare.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (4:25 pm)Like Cautiou fan #3
Out of topic but her are some news :
1 of BYD :see :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/7779261.stm
2 of Renault :
No website but go to Paris to the Renault big store window on the Champs Elysées (I was there this afternoon) and surprise !!!!, a concept with a look near the Flextreme and characteristics similar to the Volt.
Times are changing.
JC NPNS
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Dec 14th, 2008 (4:27 pm)Anyone said GM is not safe or efficient is totally ignorant.
Lets see Cadillac smashes into Prius.
People in prius will not make it. Sorry to be morbid.
Nothing I mean nothing toyota makes is safer than any gm platform.
Nothing is more efficient either. Execpt one car.
The prius and that car now or will have the volt.
GM has ALLWAYS been the technology leader over toyota.
You bought the SUV cars you told gm to make them. GM is in the process of re-tooling for smaller cars because people dont want SUV cars.
Toyota makes just as many SUVs in fact much more gas guzzles because toyota does not have 2 mode systems.
Again ignorant people to even say GM is not safe for efficient. Thats Totally wrong and false.
Wake up people and remember that prius you bought is made in japan. With a huge impact on the environment from heavy metals to poor manufacturing in a recent study.
Look around at people who drive toyota cars I dont see them as successful people.
I see successful people driving Cadillac. Successful people are typically smart and want to live in a accident.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (4:31 pm)Hey, you senators: Thanks for nothing.
Do you want to watch us drown? Is that it? Do want to see the last gurgle of economic air spit from our lips? If so, senators, know this: You’ll go down with us. America isn’t America without an auto industry. You can argue whether $14 billion would have saved it, but you surely tried to kill it.
We have grease on our hands.
You have blood.
Kill the car, kill the country. History will show that when America was on its knees, a handful of lawmakers tried to cut off its feet. And blame the workers. How suddenly did the workers — a small percentage of a car’s cost — become justification for crushing an industry?
And when did Detroit become the symbol of economic dysfunction? Are you kidding? Have you looked in the mirror lately, Washington?
In a world where banks hemorrhaged trillions in a high-priced gamble called credit derivative swaps that YOU failed to regulate, how on earth do WE need to be punished? In a bailout era where you shoveled billions, with no demands, to banks and financial firms, why do WE need to be schooled on how to run a business?
Who is more dysfunctional in business than YOU? Who blows more money? Who wastes more trillions on favors, payback and pork?
At least in the auto industry, if folks don’t like what you make, they don’t have to buy it. In government, even your worst mistakes, we have to live with.
And now Detroit should die with this?
No matter what the president does, history will not forget this: At our nation’s most uncertain hour, you senators stood ready to plunge hundreds of thousands of American families into oblivion. Leave them unemployed, with no health care, on public assistance. And you were willing to put our nation’s security at risk — by squashing the manufacturing base we must have in times of war.
And why? So you could stand on some phony principle? Crush a union? Play to your base? How is our nation better off today now that you kept $14 billion in the treasury? Are you going to balance the budget with that?
Don’t make us laugh.
Corker, you’ve got Nissan there and Volkswagen coming. Shelby, you’ve got Hyundai, Honda, Mercedes-Benz and — like McConnell — Toyota. Oh, don’t kid yourself. They didn’t come because you earned their business, a subject on which you enjoy lecturing the Detroit Three. No, they came because you threw billions in state tax breaks to lure them.
Kill the car, kill the country. You tried to slam a stake into our chest; you don’t realize how close you are to the nation’s heart. Shame on your pettiness. Shame on your hypocrisy. This is how lawmakers behave two weeks before Christmas? Honestly. What has become of this country? Mitch Albom
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Dec 14th, 2008 (4:38 pm)Sorry for Renault, (My post #45)
Here is a link :
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6xlfd_coulisses-dondlios_auto
JC NPNS
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Dec 14th, 2008 (4:39 pm)Anyone saying GM should go into Ch11 is really not looking carefully at the impact.
A well placed loan with conditions is perfect.
That will allow re-structuring and lower costs.
The difference in labor between Toyota now and GM are very similar.
2011 is the time that gm sheds a lot of health care costs.
GM will have a hard time next year true. But I think they are well on there way to a profit and and already make much better cars than toyota.
I agree with the comment above gm not safe. Since when?
GM trucks are huge metal vehicles if they crash into a light toyota camery. The camery will be destroyed inst ally.
And people complain about few MPG with say camery vs malibu
So what . The gas you save wont pay for one day in the emergency room.
So go get the safer malibu hybrid. IT gets 29mpg mixed and the difference in gas between the camery hybrid would take 250k to make up the difference. I go for the safer GM product.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (4:47 pm)#1, #8 an all,
I too love it ( your posts and technology )
. I am sure they would have gone through input,rpm max power (may be more factors ) graphs and found and optimal points . I think tesla may found 2 prominant points where these graph intercepts. That may be the reason they look for a two mode transmission to take advantage of both optimal points on different driving situations.
Putting the motor to max efficiency or an optimal efficiency and take advantage of it by some other mechanical system.
Other way may be changing the motor properties/operational efficencey itself buy activating some coils when and only needed. so there may be spare coils and they work only when needed ( same engine shutof principle they use for tahoe). This can be controlled using software and relays or electronic circuits.
Lets see how GM thinks on it. I am sure they have nice and great engineers there.
By the way: is there any key to search in google patents to get the all volt related patents ?
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Dec 14th, 2008 (5:14 pm)Tag, #43 says,
I don’t envy President-elect Obama’s situation once he’s sworn in. I didn’t vote for him, but now that he’s elected, he’s my president.
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Ya, I didn’t vote for him either, but I truly wish him the best.
I hope he is a sucessful.
Bush did leave him with a mess, and I believe it will be hard to clean it all up.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (5:43 pm)The way it looks the House gave the UAW and the creditors the option of negotiating for the reductions to get the auto bill passed, and the creditors were willing to participate. The UAW of course was not willing to take the cuts.
So, now that the present administration is looking at pulling funds from TARP and the administration is driving (phun), the creditors and UAW are going to be forced to take whatever the government tells them they are going to get.
This is a controlled bankruptcy without the bankruptcy paperwork.
Pretty much exactly what the present administration wanted, to break the strangle hold that the UAW has on GM and the other automakers.
Who saw this coming? Not the UAW! The president of the UAW is an idiot, but I’m glad he is. The UAW deserves what they are about to “not” get! All those plants that GM is about to shut down – no more job bank!
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Dec 14th, 2008 (5:57 pm)I am not in favor of a bailout – even if I never get a volt. GM could survive by downsizing – perhaps 2 models – Chevy and Cadillac. Chapter 11 would allow them to tell the UAW what they are going to accept and give GM a chance to make their products more competative. I’m not against the Union but this is a big part of the problem. Bailout or not – if GM cars do not get cheaper than the imports then people will not buy them. Especially if they have bailout taxes shoved down their throat. That in itself might be enough to keep them from success. Most people I know are not that loyal to one brand unless perhaps Toyota or Honda. My dad drove GM and Ford cars all his life and would not buy anything else until he needed a Honda to tow behind his motorhome (for a while Honda was the only one with turnover headlights (for rocks) – and a second pump in the auto transmission for towing). After buying his first Honda – he would never again buy a GM or Ford product. All else being equal (quality and reliability) – Price Does Sell Cars!
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Dec 14th, 2008 (6:08 pm)Please remember that this is not free money.
It is a loan and will need to be paid back.
When it is not paid back, it will be called a waste of money.
However, the loan is necessary if we are to get our Volt.
For national security reasons, the government should loan the money.
They have pissed enough of it away in Iraq and for what?
I’m not pleased with the UAW’s position either and I do think C11, with government backed loans to handle the restructure, is a good thing. But if this is not to be, then let’s do whatever it takes to get the Volt on the road and priced for the masses.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (6:17 pm)#1 JEC says “RB, one thing I can guarentee you is that the software will NEVER be COMPLETE. The software will reach a “release” state at some point, but it will NEVER reach be complete.”
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Having worked on similar projects, I understand and agree. It is also the case that system performance improves markedly with later software versions, so as noted before I hope GM people are having some opportunities to do some trial and error during this otherwise long down time. Some opportunities for improving a complex system will make the first release of the Volt ever so much better.
That is, I hope that something productive still is going on, and hints like interviews in bars suggest that it is.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (6:35 pm)I’m glad to see things working out for GM because the Volt deserves a
chance to proper for Wagoner and Lutz. Long live GM or as they say in Canada Viva le GM.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (6:38 pm)Conservatives want to see the automobile industry destroyed. That will take with it more than 5 million jobs – and probably an entire region with it. What would Japan do if Toyota and Honda were in trouble ?
Why do conservatives hate America so much ?
PS : Conservatives only want to bail out the rich wallstreet types. There was hardly a murmer when Citi was bailed out recently. Blue collar workers … they don’t care.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (6:44 pm)#28 JEC,
I think the term “generator” replaced “alternator” for cars back in 1996. My assumption is that the Volt generator works like any normal car generator. Specifically:
• it has 3 windings, which produce 3 different phases of AC.
• Each phase goes through a diode to produce a half wave output.
• the 3 phases of half wave output are combined to form DC with at little ripple.
• The DC with ripple is connected to the battery, which acts to dampen out the ripple (just like a capacitor).
This is how generators work in every other car, so I don’t imagine the Volt will be fundamentally different. The output voltage and current will be higher though, and the Volt’s generator will be connected directly to the drive shaft, as opposed to the belt connection in normal cars.
Which brings me to another question, will the Volt have a belt? The power steering, water pump, and air conditioning are all electric driven. The generator connects to the drive shaft. So I don’t see a need for a belt. Am I missing something here?
As for the induction motor controller firmware, my assumption is the complexity lies in switching between different scenarios (hard acceleration, regenerative braking, coasting, etc.) and transitioning between all these modes seamlessly, efficiently, and in real time. This means the B fields on the rotor must be modeled very accurately in firmware. More info here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog4/?p=45
Anyway, the more I think about it, the more I think that the unique Volt transmission that Bob Lutz mentioned is probably just switching to different ac induction motor controller firmware algorithms. Different firmware algorithms would make big difference on how the motor reacts to the accelerator. So this would be the world’s first software transmission. LOL.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (6:56 pm)nataraj says “Conservatives want to see the automobile industry destroyed.”
Conservatives are not the ones the want companies to fail, we are the ones that want the companies to survive on their own without government help. Regardless of your statement Conservatives did not support the “bank bail out” or the auto company bail out….. We believe in letting capitalism work….Liberals had to intervene and FORCE BY LAW banks to loan money to people who shouldn’t have gotten loans, Liberals are the ones that want to fund companies to keep them open when they should close, Liberals want taxdollars to pay UAW big wigs for doing nothing more than destroying the American Economy.
Keeping A broke GM open only keeps a start up auto company from being able to be successful….. You know a company that doesn’t sale its soul to the UAW….
But if the government bails out the UAW, this conservative will probably never buy another American car….
But I know, your messiah will fix everything………hahaha
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Dec 14th, 2008 (7:12 pm)Actually, there is no free lunch. If the government “gives” money to GM, then they are taking it from other Americans in taxes — or borrowing it from future taxpayers (by going into debt). So, the question is really, “why are you punishing all the American families and sending, perhaps, some of them into bankruptcy in order to give a loan to GM?”
Of course, the amount the government needs to take from each American family or business is quite small, but in the additive sense, one can be sure that some American business or family is being pushed into bankruptcy as a result of approving these loans for GM.
The only exception to this would be if the US government actually sold some asset of value to pay for the GM loan. For example, they could sell some of the gold in Fort Knox or sell a portion of Grand Canyon National Park or a Space Shuttle or an aircraft carrier or something!
Once again, I am a free market person with a desire for a safety net for individuals. But I never advocate a safety net for companies, and I would very quickly get rid of anything that even barely resemble corporate welfare. If I were elected, government contractors would be frightenend indeed because I’d drive a much higher bargain than has been customary.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (7:13 pm)I wonder how many folks are kicking themselves for not voting for Mitt Romney in the GOP primary.
#58 Dave G: I always thought alternators replaced generators. My early 65 Mustang has a generator, which was replaced with an alternator in the late 65 models and thereafter.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (7:56 pm)58 Dave G
“• The DC with ripple is connected to the battery, which acts to dampen out the ripple (just like a capacitor).”
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But a battery does not behave like a capacitor in this function. A battery is not able to charge/discharge like a capacitor. So, I wonder how they keep this DC bus stable. There must be a good solution, I am just not aware of it.
To full wave rectify a 3-phase ac you would require a 6-pack diode bridge (just 6 power diodes package together). The ripple on the DC bus is a function of the load and available capacitance. If you have light loading you can use small capacitance, but if your heavily loaded, which the Volt will be, then you need enough storage to keep the ripple voltage low.
Still curious how an AM radio will function in this car. The amount of high frequency noise generated by the inverter will couple into everything. This type of noise is difficult to suppress. (who listens to AM except me?). AM, which refers to how the signal is modulated by amplitude would be very susceptible, but FM will not be a problem.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (8:32 pm)#54 Rashiid – “They have pissed enough of it away in Iraq and for what?”
Yes it is good to put all this in perspective. Yesterday we had an official report than concluded the $100B spent on infrastructure projects in Iraq was completely wasted. Resulted in notta, zilch, nothing. And the same politicians who voted to waste the $100B in Iraq are now contending the world is ending because of a $15B appropriation? Sometimes you just have to wonder.
Maybe Michigan should declare war on the rest of the country and threaten terrorist attacks. Our troops would then over run Michigan, after which Congress could appropriate $100B for infrastructure projects. Michigan could then misappropriate the money and give it to the automakers (after skimming a bit for their effort). Everyone would be happy. Congress would get to spend money fighting terrorism, which they like to do, rather than repairing the country, which they seem to find anathema. The automakers would get a lot more money than they would otherwise. And we’d get our Volts. Hopefully at a discount. What do you think?
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Dec 14th, 2008 (8:36 pm)#62 JEC Says: “Still curious how an AM radio will function in this car. The amount of high frequency noise generated by the inverter will couple into everything.”
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Good point. The inverter basically just turns switches on and off making little voltage square wave pulses. High power square waves make for really bad EMI.
I would think there has to be a way to suppress this EMI though. Does Tesla have an AM/FM radio standard?
I listen to AM for traffic reports, and I seem to remember that the government still prefers AM various types of emergencies.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (8:41 pm)#63 DonC Says: “Maybe Michigan should declare war on the rest of the country and threaten terrorist attacks. Our troops would then over run Michigan, after which Congress could appropriate $100B for infrastructure projects… Congress would get to spend money fighting terrorism, which they like to do, rather than repairing the country, which they seem to find anathema.”
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LOL!
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Dec 14th, 2008 (8:54 pm)#50 Unni Says: “I think tesla may found 2 prominant points where these graph intercepts. That may be the reason they look for a two mode transmission to take advantage of both optimal points on different driving situations.”
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Tesla no longer uses a transmission. Their new v1.5 Roadster power train (currently shipping) does 0-60 in 3.9 seconds without switching gears. Problem solved.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (9:54 pm)#66 Dave G – “Tesla no longer uses a transmission. Their new v1.5 Roadster power train (currently shipping) does 0-60 in 3.9 seconds without switching gears. Problem solved.”
We still have our differences on this issue. Perhaps it’s just semantics, but Tesla says it uses a singe gear transmission. From its website:
“Transmission
Our single-speed gearbox couples the low drag and fuel efficiency of a manual transmission with the driving ease of an automatic.”
http://www.teslamotors.com/efficiency/how_it_works.php
The genesis and workings of the single gear transmission is described more fully here:
“DriveTrain 1.5 doesn’t appear to be an easy fix, as it involves replacing the Roadster’s entire powertrain. The electric motor is to be changed from an air-cooled motor to a more powerful liquid cooled unit and the power electronics will also be altered to supply the necessary increased current flow to the new motor. This adjustment will allow for the use of a single-speed transmission with a reduced gear design. The transmission is being developed and produced with the assistance of engineering firm Ricardo, which produces, among other things, the Bugatti Veyron’s dual clutch gearbox.”
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/01/24/tesla-finds-a-solution-to-transmission-troubles
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:11 pm)Here is an interesting tidbit from the A123 Prospectus:
“In our largest target market, the transportation industry, we are currently working with major North American and European automotive manufacturers and major automotive, or tier 1, suppliers to develop batteries and battery systems for hybrid electric vehicles, or HEVs, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, and electric vehicles, or EVs. For example, we are engaged in design and development efforts with several passenger vehicle manufacturers and tier 1 suppliers, including General Motors Corporation, or General Motors, and Think Global AS, or Think Global, relating to the design and development of batteries and battery systems for eleven passenger vehicle power train programs that can be applied to 19 vehicle models.
We estimate that the number of HEV, PHEV and EV models with an annual production run of at least 20,000 vehicles will grow from ten models in 2008 to over 100 models in 2012. The advanced battery market for HEVs, PHEVs and EVs is currently a $700 million market. We estimate this market could grow to at least $5 billion by 2012. We are also customizing and validating our battery technology for use in other transportation applications in the heavy-duty vehicle and aviation segments”
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1167178/000104746908008964/a2186822zs-1.htm
NPNS
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:32 pm)#46, bill hixtorf,
The Cadillac has a big weight advantage. Still, check this:
http://www.iihs.org/research/hldi/composite_cls.aspx?y=2005-2007&cls=2&sz=2&sort=name
In spite of its weight disadvantage, the Prius is about as good as a Cadillac.
By the by, if you’re thinking of the CNW “dust to dust” study, rest assured, it’s entirely bogus. You should get better sources.
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Dec 14th, 2008 (10:51 pm)Here’s a good article I just ran across. It’s written by the same guy who wrote a good article about the Volt in “The Atlantic” earlier this year. Lyle did a post about it. It’s somewhat critical of GM. But that’s the job of the people in the press sometimes. Let everyone know what the reality is. GM needs to change with the times … and do it FAST … or their competitors are going to REALLY pile on the pressure and they really could go out of business.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/st_20081213_7056.php
I particularly liked reading this:
“What I found this year was a far cry from complacency. The ranks of line executives and engineers are thick with members of the Obama generation, who barely remember when GM was fat and happy. They are HUNGRY TO CHANGE the beleaguered company and prove its critics wrong. They are also piercingly critical of the old GM, candid to the point of eagerness in owning up to and analyzing the company’s mistakes and faults. The decades of denial are over.”
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Dec 15th, 2008 (12:17 am)#68 DonC
Very encouraging indeed. Though obviously taken with a grain of salt given the source. But even if they’re overshooting a little here, the train’s a comin.
The Intel announcement gets me excited as well. When companies come running, they smell a profit to be made which is good for us all. Maybe the competition will drive that 7% annual improvement rate for batteries up a little bit more, prices will fall, longevity……I love the free world
Thanks for nosing through edgar. Where’s the 10-k?
Another great line from the S1 “We have never been profitable. We experienced net losses of $14.3 million for 2005, $15.8 million for 2006, $31.0 million for 2007 and $13.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2008.”
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Dec 15th, 2008 (12:17 am)First off, I will not buy a Prius. For multiple reasons.
Second, this bail out battle and continued reports of AIG and other “needy” financial institutions giving big bonuses and throwing parties is going to echo in the minds of American’s for some time.
The winners in this big picture will be the auto repair, parts, and restoration companies. People will nurse what they currently drive for the next 5 – 7 years. Watch for companies like Midas, Cooper, Tyco, and AAMCO have good fiscal quarters.
Just like the Big Oil companies, the auto makers have shot themselves in the foot. The pent up demand for new cars (2013-2014) will be filled by advanced battery powered EV and E-REV. This is destiny.
=D~
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Dec 15th, 2008 (12:31 am)First off, I will not buy a Prius. For multiple reasons.
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Then what are you doing now instead to help end the reign of traditional vehicles?
Lots of bark with little bite is why the loan was not approved.
We know that enthusiasts could have done more to draw attention to Volt. Why must the burden always be placed on Lyle?
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Dec 15th, 2008 (12:55 am)hi john1701a #73,
“… what are you doing now …”
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You lost me John. What am I doing now? My prior post mentioned maintaining existing vehicles.
I’ll buy a car when I’m ready. Congress can’t force this on me. Well, maybe I’m wrong.
How about a new bill? A reverse tax credit. Buy a new car now and we won’t deduct an additional 10% bailout tax from your paycheck.
The choice is yours.
=D~
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Dec 15th, 2008 (2:37 am)Some “spam”:
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081215/METRO/812150335/1148/AUTO01
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081215/OPINION03/812150301/1148/AUTO01
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Dec 15th, 2008 (4:20 am)Bush is now considering whether the US is willing to spend some of the 700B on additional war costs. What do you guys think? lol.
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Dec 15th, 2008 (5:20 am)Hi Zach #76,
“… spend some of the 700B on additional war costs.”
_________________
It’s a twisted way to bail out GM, but it would mean the sale of several thousand Humvees.
http://garfwod.250free.com/hummer.mpeg
=D~
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Dec 15th, 2008 (5:30 am)DonC # 63
Well said. It might actually help Michigan to do just that.
At least they would be further along in the process.
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Dec 15th, 2008 (5:40 am)#76 Zach says,
Bush is now considering whether the US is willing to spend some of the 700B on additional war costs. What do you guys think?
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Easier to piss away 700B on the war than it is to invest 25B-75B in the Domestic Auto Industry so we don’t have to fight this kind of war.
Really stupid, huh.
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Dec 15th, 2008 (5:52 am)Oil steady near $46 as OPEC prepares output cut
Monday December 15, 2008, 3:36 am EST
SINGAPORE (AP) — Oil prices were steady near $46 a barrel Monday in Asia as investors anticipated OPEC will announce a large production cut at its meeting this week.
=D~
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Dec 15th, 2008 (6:10 am)#70 GM Volt Fan,
Thanks for the article. It was very interesting to read.
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Dec 15th, 2008 (11:07 am)#76 Zach says,
Bush is now considering whether the US is willing to spend some of the 700B on additional war costs. What do you guys think?
————–
Now, where did you get that information from? I watch the news a lot and have not heard of this. Or is this just some more hate Bush talk? Say anything bad about Bush you want to and it will be believed and passed around like gospel. Bush has done plenty wrong, but he did not cause the financial crisis we find ourselves in. Granted he could have done more, but he didn’t. Congress was warned dozens of times by members of the administration and by some members of congress, but they would not listen. They wanted to keep forcing bad loans on the banks so they could drive up housing ownership among the poor. A 12 year old could tell that would not work for very long.
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Dec 15th, 2008 (11:23 am)#70 GM Volt Fan
Good article. Thanks for the link.
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Dec 15th, 2008 (3:26 pm)Ask yourself “Are you waging war on old people?”
A re-print from MSNBC website. Regarding Northern and Southern Auto Workers.
Not much difference in pay
For all the divisions between the two camps, there isn’t much difference in their pay. The GM workers average about $28 an hour, though new workers receive far less. The Nissan workers make about $25 an hour, the company said.
“The overall compensation for a worker is not that different whether it’s a foreign or domestic automaker in the U.S. — they’re all in the same ballpark,” said Kristin Dziczek, assistant director of research at the Center for Automotive Research at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. “They have to be. Good wages and benefits avoid unionization.”
The biggest difference in the labor costs is that the foreign automakers don’t have to pay for legions of retirees — their workers are younger and haven’t received benefits that are as generous, Dziczek said.
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