
The most stark and striking revelation of the survival plan GM submitted yesterday was just how bad things are for them. The automaker who suffered a brutal November sales, down 41% from the year before, publicly admitted that without receiving $4 billion dollars by the end of this month, they will go into default.
GM’s President and COO Fritz Henderson put it bluntly, “there isn’t a plan B, absent support the company can’t fund its operations.”
The automaker also issued these ominous words:
Absent such assistance, the company will default in the near term, very likely precipitating a total collapse of the domestic industry and its extensive supply chain, with a ripple effect that will have severe, long-term consequences to the U.S. economy.
In exchange for the request for a total of $12 to $18 billion in loans GM has offered to cut jobs, plants, brands, executive pay, and renegotiate debt.
Tomorrow CEO Rick Wagoner, now presumably en route to DC in his Hybrid Malibu, will plead the case in person to the Senate and on Friday to the House.
Senate majority leader Harry Reid has promised to bring legislation offering loans to the Senate floor on Monday the 8th. Without yet addressing the plans, Reid said “we’re already spending a lot of money on a lot of things. We can’t be throwing good money after bad, I’m hopeful and I’m somewhat confident that they can come up with something that will give us the ability to show that they are viable. It’s up to them.”
House speaker Nancy Pelosi said “I believe an intervention will happen, either legislatively or from the administration, I think it’s pretty clear that bankruptcy is not an option.”
White House spokesperson Dana Perino said the White House was still “sticking to its guns” regarding having the loans come from the $25 billion already earmarked for plant retooling, and has not indicated the sum will be increased to the $34 billion all three automakers are asking for combined. Though, Ford, has said it may not need the $9 billion it has asked be put aside for them.
You can read GM’s business plan here.
Source (Detroit Press)
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:14 am
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Its a shame the industry is so tied to one major player.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 7:14 am
Lyle,
I have enjoyed this site since its inception. Typically, I remain a lurker to avoid the viscious replies to any comments that don’t line up with the “quarterbacks” of the site. I couldn’t avoid this idea though.
GM-VOLT.com holds a powerful platform to lobby for electric vehicles. You should push hard to get the largest government subsidies of this fledgling change agent. I have no hard data but I project an increase of nearly 10,000 sales could occur for every $1,000 below $30,000. The government bailout could stipulate a ceiling of cost for the Volt which would allow the tax incentives to directly lower the bottom line for consumers. Any thoughts? I welcome any disagreements but please be cordial and amiable.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 7:16 am
I just bought a Chrysler and one Saturn. My small contribution.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 7:16 am
Just give them the damn money!!!!
I can’t believe they are actually hesitating to give a couple of billion to the biggest automaker in the country, but they bailed out banks for 700 billion!!!
Give them the money, it’s a big priority just like keeping the banks alive. We just can’t afford to lose any of the automakers.
BANKS JUST PLAY AROUND WITH OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY, it’s the companies that actually do something that make the money, such as GM. Did u know that the auto industry is a major player in the GDP value? Can you lose 500 billion out of t he 14 billion GDP and just let it slip away to foreign nations?
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December 3rd, 2008 at 7:23 am
Sad, but if notihing else the sinking ship graphic that Lyle used made me laugh for some reason.
With all of the horrible sales figures month after month, there must be some serious pent up demand building for new cars. At some point in the next year or two, things almost have to rebound. People can’t drive their old cars forever.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 7:33 am
“Tomorrow CEO Rick Wagoner, now presumably en route to DC in his Hybrid Malibu….”
It would be fitting if he turned on the CD player and it started playing AC/DC’s “Highway to Hell” (a stuck disc left in there by a UAW member).
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December 3rd, 2008 at 7:38 am
Even the Somali Pirates won’t approach this ship.
Arghh !
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December 3rd, 2008 at 7:44 am
I think the most important thing they could do is start building cars that people want to buy. Hire Japanese engineers if they have to, but they need a new image. The Volt and e-flex line will help, but most of their vehicles are ugly knock offs of their (profitable) Japanese competition’s lineup.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 7:48 am
Jason #2
Thanks for your input.
The problem I think with your idea is that 60% of Americans are not willing to purchase American cars. It is sad, but true.
Being one of them, I can tell you that my Hyundai Elantra only cost me $15.5K out the door and so far runs great, but it only has 7,000 miles on it. The only reason why I bought it is because my 2002 Elantra has 175,000 miles on it and runs like it was new.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:05 am
This is a far cry from the finance report just a few months ago…what happened to the cash they said they had??
Now the horse and pony show…..lets all drive our cheapest cars to washington and beg for a handout ( dont forget to wear your torn up tee shirts from goodwill).
Any CEO that says he will work for a dollar knows he isnt worth a crap. Get rid of them..and save a buck
Bankrupcy is the only option..the only difference is when they restructure, they will have new management!.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:11 am
you are wrong guys . GM is down but not out !
Go GM Go !
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:17 am
Thom @ 10… I fail to understand how bankruptcy helps. You obviously are not a creditor. Think of the number of defaults. To shareholders, to suppliers, OEMs, employees, health care, pensions, hell…current warranties…CUSTOMERS. Faith in GM would be shattered. I sure as hell would NEVER buy a GM product if they go into Chapter 11. I am not kidding. I doubt any supplier would give them a credit line as well. Please think before you type.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:19 am
Maybe the Fed should force the banks to loan the Big Three the money with the cash they have earmarked for the banks. two birds, one stone.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:19 am
Statik,
LOL. Do you know Gerry W. ?
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:20 am
#4 Alex S. I agree that it would be a real shame to let an industry that produces something leave the country. And when it leaves we’ll never be able to get it back.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:20 am
I hope Chrysler will drop dead, no need for the low quality company to be bailed out!
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:20 am
make no mistake – Pelosi and her cohorts never find any problem in allowing other corporations to fail. But THEY don’t employ large numbers of union workers who keeep the democratic Party afloat in millions of campaign contributions. Pelosi and the Dems are paying off their union benefactors by bailing out their companies. Notice that Toyota and Honda and other foreign automakers have had dismal sales numbers just like GM. But THEY aren’t failing. THEY have the freedom to cut producuction and lay off workers. The Big Three do not. They are still paying workers let go years ago (it’s euphemistically called “retraining” ). The entire American auto business is unequipped to handle the inevitable downturns. And
restructuring a company to offer fewer products in smaller numbners hardly seems a solution to anything – unit costs will only increase. Their proposed solution is basically this – we will lose less money if we are a smaller company. Unfortunately, they will also be even less competitive. And since when did Chapter 11 mean anything like the preposterous effects that Pelosi is trying to sell?
She also fails to mention that most of GM’s parts are built elsewhere – China will feel GM’s loss more than California, which doesn’t even buy GM products. Many bankrupt companies are operating nowadays with practically no effect on their business. Pelosi is the good little union puppet.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:21 am
Jason #2
Bright idea, but as Raschiid #9 said we should know the direct price elasticity of the demand for american made cars by US citizens.
Ask Paul Krugman, he should have an idea.
JC NPNS
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:32 am
I’ve been on the fence about buying a new car NOW, because I wanted to wait for the Volt, but I would buy one (hybrid, etc.) if I would be assured an additional discount on the Volt, for example, in the future when they are available. My car is paid off, and it will probably last me 3 more years with proper maintenance. I don’t know if this would help, but it may drive some sales in the short term.
I am glad GM tool the picture of the hybrid Escalade off of their main website page. if people want a giant truck or SUV, I think they know where they can go. They should do a better job of promoting the other vehicles right now.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:34 am
I wonder if any of the Kool-Aid drinkers who denied, months ago, that GM would have any trouble surviving long enough to make the Volt and viciously attacked those who said so are even feeling any remorse, or are they still all Baghdad Bob up in it?
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:40 am
Oh, and by the way, if they don’t make an effort to drive a preproduction Volt or mule to the meetings tomorrow, no matter how early in the development stages they are, I think it’s a big missed opportunity. Yes, it may steel some thunder from Transformers 2, but I think it needs to be done.
In fact, why not provide a website address at the hearings and start taking orders for the Volt with a $1,000 or $2,000 deposit? All eyes will be on these guys… to me it’s a great marketing idea.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:01 am
Great graphic Lyle…
I’m still of the opinion that this is all a dog and pony show, the money will be granted…
I like that they are putting up this whole facade and really do hope that the concessions that are set will be applied…if not … just go with Chapter 11…I do not see how that will cause the entire industry to crumble into nothingness…it’ll hurt for sure but cars will continue to be produced in the US
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:04 am
I bet GM regret crushing the EV1 now! There could have been a million out there by now with a sales rush during the last oil price surge.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:06 am
GM is a big company and has seen this situation coming for a long time. I own two Chevrolets and the performance and quality has gone down over the two Chevrolets I traded in. That tells me that GM has let themselves get in the mess they are in. There are a lot of smart people in GM’s Design and Engineering Departments also they have a swarm of people in Planning and Research. The janitors probably saw this coming years ago, but who listens to a janitor. The Japanese introduced the Camry, the Corolla and the Tercel years ago and were very successful. Did the Big 3 Sales people see this as a market the people wanted, no they wanted to make mostly Muscle cars. True Muscle cars are still popular today but people have to be realistic and look at Reliability, Price, Economy and Quality. The Big 3 to this day are still pushing the big money cars and staying away from the high mpg cars that people want. GM crows about all the models that get over 30mpg. That is EPA estimates and we all know this is a fictional number. My 2000 Chevy Venture Van would get 24-25mpg on the highway. I traded it in on a 2006 Chevy Uplander Van and I get 17-19mpg on the highway. Did GM know they were selling less for more? Sure, but so what!! Well, in my opinion The Big 3 and the UAW put them where they are today.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:12 am
From the article:
Absent such assistance, the company will default in the near term, very likely precipitating a total collapse of the domestic industry and its extensive supply chain, with a ripple effect that will have severe, long-term consequences to the U.S. economy.
In exchange for the request for a total of $12 to $18 billion in loans GM has offered to cut jobs, plants, brands, executive pay, and renegotiate debt.
————————————————-
I find it ironic that GM forecasts ‘doom and gloom’ to the greater economy if they don’t get the money…but if they do get the money they are going to cut payroll in half, close plants, not pay executives and try to skip town on their debts.
Anyone see a flaw here?
In 2000, GM had roughly 177,000 employess in NA. 133,000 (hourly), 44,000 (salaried). Today, they have 96,000 total workers now, with the plan to get to 65,000. And of those, they want them on the new two-tier system at $15/hour with no pensions and dramatic cuts to their health care coverage….after all that, there is no guarantee of success, as a matter of fact it is likely they are still broke.
The point to me is that GM’s footprint is nothing like what it was, the economy has already taken the hit on 60% of GM and its infrastructure closing down. It is a third what it used to be, it has far fewer suppliers (who employee far fewer workers inline with GM’s laborforce)…and a ever shrinking dealer network.
Even if we give them the money, this is what happens:
–30,000 highly paid workers directly into the unemployment line.
–92,750 employeed from dealer closures
(The average number of employees per dealership is 53 (Source: National Auto Dealers Association)–they plan on shuttering 1,750 of them)
–If they close a couple brands and half the remaining production from 2008 levels, we are talking about supplier closures and layoffs numbering close to another 50,000 (?). Who says their suppliers even remain solvent in this environment? (ala Delphi)
Yeah, it is going to hurt…but it is going to hurt either way. Why throw billions down the drain with them? 25 billion is not the number that will be spent, even GM says if they get the bailout money they are broke again by march,
So my question is to the people who ‘believe’ in GM. How much money thrown at them is too much? How small does GM have to get before you are willing to pull the plug?
And on top of all that, GM is losing 2+ billion a month…how do you see them stopping that trend? By selling less cars? By buying out 30,000 workers at 100K a piece? By settling/going to court with 1,750 dealships? They still have to make all those debt/legacy payments…and now on half the sales volume.
Are they going wake up tomorrow and be able to sell Malibus at $50,000 a pop? Because that is what it is going to take to break even.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:22 am
#9 Rashiid Amul Says:
The problem I think with your idea is that 60% of Americans are not willing to purchase American cars. It is sad, but true.
————————–
Did you just make that up, or do you have something to back it up? Seems like a really broad statement. Especially when talking about a car that is not availble yet, or even priced.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:22 am
If Ford doesnt want any of the $25billion, give it to GM. Then no need to go to $34 billion.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:23 am
English production line may produce Volts.
http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/12/03/uk_govt_blesses_volt/
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:26 am
Nothing to do with my last post, but this was interesting in ‘the plan’
They ask for the bailout money to be staggered payments, but the 6 billion line of credit request is worded differently:
“$6 billion committed line of credit from the Federal Government to ensure adequate liquidity under more severe U.S. industry conditions (a 10.5 million unit “Downside” industry sales scenario for 2009) or a more challenging near-term dealer order situation”
It is the last 9 words I think that are the most important admission of the whole report.
With GMAC cutting off dealers, (or making them pay 5%/month with balance due in 180 days on new inventory), I think dealers are in total lockdown. I think GM is way low on cash right now, even greater than the estimates…and that future dealer orders are all but dried up.
I don’t think GM knows how to get their dealers ordering again, and they are starting to go under at a rapid rate (and not just the ones they want to go under). We may find that even with the bailout, that the base under GM (specifically the dealerships) is now built on sand and could topple the whole thing almost as quickly as insolvency.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:32 am
#25 Statik
Lalala. I’m not listening. Lalala. Doom & gloom. They sky is falling. Lalala.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:33 am
29 Statik:
bingo. That was about a month-two months ago when GMAC started putting the clamps on GM Financing. Now, most of your dealers don’t actually use GMAC for floorplan they use National City, GE Finance, Wachovia, WaMu, or First State Bank of wherever….names sound familiar?
Not automotive but GE Finance literally CLOSED over 100 RV dealerships a couple weeks ago by pulling the floorplan credit lines and getting out of the RV business.
Every manufacturer runs on cash flow…it is the life blood. For manufacturing selling something at a loss is better than no sales at all. GM doesn’t have cash flow, and won’t have it for quite a while.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:36 am
Playing with Numbers:
Assume half of the 300 million people in the US make some income.
150,000,000 people.
Each would have to donate $167 dollars to total 25 billion.
Doesn’t look like a big amount. I spent over that on GAS last September.
But the 700 billion TARP fund will cost those 150 million people $4,667.
$4,667 + $167 = $4,834
What’s the difference, might as well lend them the money.
I’m sure they’ll make up the difference by marking up the best sellers accordingly.
The Volt price just went up by $1,000.
NPNS!
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:43 am
#9 Rashiid
The problem I think with your idea is that 60% of Americans are not willing to purchase American cars. It is sad, but true.
Being one of them, I can tell you that my Hyundai Elantra only cost me $15.5K out the door and so far runs great, but it only has 7,000 miles on it. The only reason why I bought it is because my 2002 Elantra has 175,000 miles on it and runs like it was new.
=============================
Technically, 60% I don’t think is possible.
According to the November auto sales numbers, 48.1% of all cars purchased where domestic.
/I guess it ‘could’ be possible, if a certain segment of the minority of the populus was porportionally overpurchasing domestic nameplates, or if there was a hugely unbalanced purchase of domestic cars sold under the ‘fleet’ banner…but I digress.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:47 am
#30 cautious fan
Statik, Lalala. I’m not listening. Lalala. Doom & gloom. They sky is falling. Lalala.
==============================
Sorry about that. How about a happier topic?
You see how well the Jets are doing this year? The might actually make the playoffs…they are such a tease.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:53 am
I’ve had GM products for a while now and recently traded my 97 Buick Century with 250K+ miles on it and was still going strong. That was traded for a 05 Buick century. My other car is also a Buick but an 08 Lacrosse, a 98 Pontiac Bonneville with 150K+ miles was traded in on it and was still going strong. So to anyone who says GM cars are garbage I say open your eyes.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:56 am
How many dealerships does Tesla have?
One Car – Tesla Roadster
One Internet Website – http://www.teslamotors.com/
One Waiting list.
I think they’re making money.
NPNS!
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:59 am
The people who say the sky isn’t falling are the same ones who thought there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Wake up the sky is falling and when it does and every one says I told you so where will you be? thats right no where to be found.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:59 am
To anyone who can answer:
With all of the comments flying around that say GM will fail regardless of whether they get the bailout, my question is, do you seriously think GM could actually survive Chapter 11? If yes, than how? If no, then why not?
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:00 am
#31 morgan
29 Statik:
bingo. That was about a month-two months ago when GMAC started putting the clamps on GM Financing. Now, most of your dealers don’t actually use GMAC for floorplan they use National City, GE Finance, Wachovia, WaMu, or First State Bank of wherever….names sound familiar?
Not automotive but GE Finance literally CLOSED over 100 RV dealerships a couple weeks ago by pulling the floorplan credit lines and getting out of the RV business.
Every manufacturer runs on cash flow…it is the life blood. For manufacturing selling something at a loss is better than no sales at all. GM doesn’t have cash flow, and won’t have it for quite a while.
======================
Your right, some dealers have found other avenues, (it varies by region). The problem is that Citi, Wachovia (and all other lenders basically) put out a release saying they intent to cut or close up to half of all existing credit lines to consumers and small businesses. You would have to think dealers on the fringe of existance will see some notices.
http://www.mashget.com/2008/12/01/credit-card-industry-may-cut-2-trillion-of-lines-analyst/
It does seem to vary wildly by region. Some regions (notably the same with the worst real estate crisis) are still heavily tied to GM as well. For example in California. According to the California New Car Dealers Association, as of November 25th, “80% of California’s 340 GM dealers said they finance their inventory through GMAC”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/05/autos/gmac_dealers/
And of the customer’s who specifically apply for loans through GMAC, they only loan to customers with scores over 700…and even still are then only financing a much smaller percentage of the car. Last October sales financed through GMAC went down to 23% from 42%…I haven’t heard the november number yet.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:16 am
39 Statik:
I guess I was saying…its not just GMAC. The overall banking economy is going to shut these guys down. I remember it pretty much started two-three years ago. Dealers started getting bank notices to halve their floorplan inventory.
We are agreeing with each other
GM now has horrible prospects for having cash flow (Not just GM…every car manufacturer is going to have a drastic drop in cash flow)
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:20 am
Murry # 22 says,
I’m still of the opinion that this is all a dog and pony show, the money will be granted…
————–
Agreed 100%. It is a done deal, and they are just jumping through the hoops as a mere formality.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 am
It is time to throw the baby Volt out with the bathwater. GM divide and conquer!
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 am
36 Nelson:
Actually they are inching ever closer to bankruptcy if they were public. Having a huge order backlog is great but no bank will let you borrow on receivables in the manufacturing sector. They have worse cash flow prospects than GM…..
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 am
#40 Morgan
We are agreeing with each other GM now has horrible prospects for having cash flow (Not just GM…every car manufacturer is going to have a drastic drop in cash flow)
———————————-
Indeed we are. I think I just got off on a little tangent there…don’t mind me, lol.
I thought I had seen a comment from GM about the current amount of customers that had gotten financing through GMAC in ‘the plan’…and indeed I did. I’m not sure how accurate this is…or if it is in the proper context, but here it is:
—-
“GM’s financing arm, GMAC, cannot effectively access the secondary markets today. With each passing day, it is less able to finance the sale of GM vehicles, either for dealers or for the public. One year ago, GMAC was able to provide either installment or lease financing for nearly half of GM retail sales. That number has fallen to 6% today. In addition, GMAC is no longer able to buy contracts for customers with a credit score under 700, which excludes roughly half the buying population. All of this has been especially toxic to GM sales in the past two months, with sales running about 40% behind year-ago levels.
—-
As far as I can tell, GM is saying that the number has dropped to 6% from 23% in October.
They are even going farther than that, basically saying GMAC itself doesn’t even have the ability buy contracts under 700, that the ‘700′ number isn’t a choice or business decision, it is a reality. That tells me the viability score is qualify is actually much higher than 700.
I have always wondered about the impact of the loss of leasing and GMAC as a whole, it would appear that GM’s ‘best case’ for sales is around -40%…if the first 3 months since GMAC changed its policies are a indication.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:28 am
kdawg #26 says,
#9 Rashiid Amul Says:
The problem I think with your idea is that 60% of Americans are not willing to purchase American cars. It is sad, but true.
————————–
Did you just make that up, or do you have something to back it up? Seems like a really broad statement. Especially when talking about a car that is not availble yet, or even priced.
——–
Statik #33 says,
Technically, 60% I don’t think is possible.
================
kdawg and Statik.
Be assured that I did not make up those numbers.
Here is the link to it.
I can’t paste a URL without quotes, so please remove the quotes.
“http://gm-volt.com/2007/11/13/60-of-new-us-car-buyers-are-against-buying-american-brands/”
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 am
I wonder why Fritz Henderson is making all the rounds through the press and talk shows? Hrm…change is coming at the top I think.
————
WASHINGTON (AP) — A top executive of General Motors Corp. said Wednesday bankruptcy isn’t a viable option, as the United Auto Workers braced for a decision on contract concessions to the endangered Big Three
Fritz Henderson, president and chief operating officer of GM, said that choosing the bankruptcy route would further erode consumer confidence in the automaker and “we want them to be confident in their ability to buy our cars and trucks.”
Henderson acknowledged Wednesday that the initial appearances by the heads of the car makers was a public relations failure.
“Yeah, it certainly was not our finest hour,” he told NBC. “We were not as clear about what we wanted to do.” He also conceded that the decision by the executives to travel to Washington by private jet “was a problem” for lawmakers
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081203/meltdown_autos.html
————
I think the question is no longer, “Will he lead GM?” but “How long will GM be around for him to lead?”
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 am
I’m starting to think I won’t get a Volt anytime soon. I need to fixate on a different E-REV or BEV.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:40 am
My husband just heard on NPR that the volt price will be 40,000 and they are going to make 60,000. Anyone else hear this
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:41 am
#17 kent beuchert – “Pelosi and her cohorts never find any problem in allowing other corporations to fail. But THEY don’t employ large numbers of union workers who keeep the democratic Party afloat in millions of campaign contributions.”
Get a grip. Two giant factual problems. One, if you remember correctly, Pelosi fully supported TARP, which was a rescue for financial companies. No union workers there. Second, the Democrats, like the Republicans, get their contributions from wealthy donors. So they get a lot more contributions from Hollywood than from Detroit.
Rather than making this some sinister tit for tat conspiracy, it would be more realistic to simply say that the Democrats are generally more interventionist than Republicans. With exceptions on both sides of the aisle of course.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:41 am
Government sponsored chapter 11 is what’s needed! That solves the fear that no one will buy GM cars while GM is in chapter 11 as the government can back up the warranties.
It should now be clear to most folks that keeping GM out of chapter 11 is going to cost us, the taxpayers, a lot more than just what GM is asking for now (an amount which has already gone up 50% in a month). And that still is only the tip of the iceberg… they will need to keep coming back to the well as they continue to burn through it like it’s going out of style. Staying out of chapter 11 just means nothing really *substantial* will change… the same management that drove them into this stays in place, contracts with unions and dealerships stay in place, and so on. Using Lyle’s picture of a sinking ship, giving GM money is like giving them buckets to keep bailing the ship out of the water that is flooding in, but never fixing the holes that are letting the water in.
And if anyone really thinks these are just “loans” and not a handout, no one really thinks they will be repaid.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 am
#45 Rashiid,
Ah, I think I know where the two different numbers are coming from.
Your link goes to a Detroit Free Press Survey of Americans shopping for a new family sedan. So probably that 60% number is true in that demographic.
(I wasn’t necessarily disagreeing with you personally, I was just going by the percentage out of the november auto sales reports)
/it is all good, I certainly know what you mean/were getting at…I was just splitting a hair a little bit, hehe
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:49 am
Even in Michigan, Not Everyone Wants a Lifeline
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/03/us/03michigan.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
Synopsis: Many people in Michigan said in interviews that they could no longer see why the Big Three should be singled out for rescue.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 11:13 am
#43 Morgan
Actually they (Tesla) are inching ever closer to bankruptcy if they were public. Having a huge order backlog is great but no bank will let you borrow on receivables in the manufacturing sector. They have worse cash flow prospects than GM…..
That’s all good, but what does their P&L look like?
Does every car they deliver give them a loss or gain?
NPNS!
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December 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 am
Lyle’s ship graphic would be more appropriate if the bow of the ship was labeled “USA”. Only the stern of the ship … maybe the propeller … should be labeled “GM”. On the bow should stand a random idiot, proclaiming “Ha … let GM sink … my friends make better cars anyway.”
The “friends” he refers to are riding on a neighboring gunboat labeled “Japan”, with crew up on deck singing and dancing.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 11:20 am
We should call it the:
“Kill the Competitor’s of Big 3’s” bill
or the
“Destroy Competitive Innovation” bill
or even the
“let’s follow the Soviet’s to Kill Capitalism” bill (we all saw how well THAT worked for them)
The ONLY IMPORTANT FACT HERE is that when the taxpayer’s money chooses winners & losers competition and innovation die while costs increase and quality suffers.
American USED to stand for something. Now it’s only…
Go, comrades, go….
YES,
They’ll receive the Fed Reserve debt notes. This is ALL just political posturing by the brainless Democrats and the Neocon’s corporatists.
Both the democrats and neocons needed to see a little “groveling before Cesar” before favors are granted. We are now under rule of men and NOT rule of law..
History repeats and so went Rome in the final days…
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December 3rd, 2008 at 11:28 am
Statik, I would swear that you were paid to be here to post your negativity from the very beginnings of this web site as if to derail public support for the Volt, and now GM as a whole. Your charismatic posts brought lots of attention to yourself, as though you are a professional corporate espionage artist or something. Of course, with the cloak of the Internet, we can deny anything, and we never know who you or anybody else on this web site is. But how well it does work!
You are among the top posters on this web site. It would take an inordinate amount of time to find and post links to negative news stories about GM’s financial situation even about a year back (before news stories about the dire financial situation of the world economy were in vogue) to place a bug in our ears to question the Volt and GM.
Keep sending the negative stories, Statik. Perception leads to reality. People who can’t form their own opinion by doing their own research rely on others to digest the facts and post their opinions. You know, “I hear so many stories that GM sucks, so I won’t buy one”. My next post below is from yesterday’s story, but it’s worth re-posting again:
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December 3rd, 2008 at 11:29 am
I find arguments that question the reliability of car brand X versus brand Y rather questionable.
Consider the following:
When Windows Vista first came out, it had some compatibility problems. Hey, so did the changeover to Windows 95, Windows XP, etc. Nobody bitched and moaned about it much. It was part of any upgrade process for ANY piece of computer software.
In the meantime, Apple’s marketing wizards came up with their clever “I’m and Mac, and I’m a PC” commercials which poked fun at Vista’s shortcomings. We saw these commercials over and over again. More and more varations. Before you know it, millions have been convinced that Vista sucks. It goes to say: “The bigger the lie, the easier it is to believe”. People should make their own decisions, rather than relying on someone else’s swayed opinions. I was talking to someone today who bought a laptop with Vista, and he said that he was hesitant to buy it simply because it came with Vista. Once he learned its differences like any other Windows upgrade, he didn’t find it as bad as he was led to believe.
A co-worker of mine has a Mac. It isn’t problem free. He has an automatic shutdown set for every night and when he comes in to work the next morning, the computer is typically hung. And You know that cute commercial that pokes fun at the Vista “Cancel or Allow” security feature? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyGUrPxG1iM Well, according to my co-worker, there are certain functions that require you to type your password to continue. Is that much better? There are many other shortcomings that the general public doesn’t know about, either.
Where are all the Vista commercials rebutting Apple’s ads?
We have been inundated with messages about how often a domestic-branded car breaks down for years and years. And how they have poor handling. When a supervisor saw some pictures of the new Challenger, upcoming Mustang, and upcoming Camaro, he said that they were all junk that are only worth their performance in a straight line. Maybe in the 60s. Maybe if he drove a new one, he wouldn’t think that. Well, since you can’t drive the new Camaro at this point, I guess I’ll have to be a hypocrite and tell you to read someone else’s opinion:
http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/coupes/112_0811_2010_chevrolet_camaro_v6_first_drive/index.html
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December 3rd, 2008 at 11:32 am
#45 Rashiid Amul
“figures are given with respect to the 2.7 million Americans shopping for a new family sedan”
So 60% of that group. Thats kind of a small slice, IMO. That article also makes the point i was making, in that, the Volt is not available at this time.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 11:58 am
The game is working.
http://www.autocar.co.uk/News/NewsArticle/AllCars/236329/
Take Care
Arch
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
#56 Gary
So, Statik caused GM’s downfall?
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
#56 Gary – “Statik, I would swear that you were paid to be here to post your negativity from the very beginnings of this web site as if to derail public support for the Volt, and now GM as a whole. Your charismatic posts brought lots of attention to yourself, as though you are a professional corporate espionage artist or something.”
Hold up partner. Statik has a point of view. Personally I think he overdoes it but he backs everything up. It’s not exactly like others (not here but in the “media’) haven’t had the same opinion. An example of this would be the economist at the Senate Hearings. And he’s not nearly as negative as the editors of the WSJ. Now those guys I do question.
As for anonymity, if determined you could find him, assuming the things he says about himself are accurate, which I have reason to believe them to be. For that matter you could be “NotRickWagoner”! LOL
Let’s not shoot the messengers.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Keep your eye on this today. It is the game winner.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20081203005332&newsLang=en
Take Care
Arch
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:12 pm
#56 Gary
Statik, I would swear that you were paid to be here to post your negativity from the very beginnings of this web site as if to derail public support for the Volt, and now GM as a whole. Your charismatic posts brought lots of attention to yourself, as though you are a professional corporate espionage artist or something. Of course, with the cloak of the Internet, we can deny anything, and we never know who you or anybody else on this web site is. But how well it does work!
You are among the top posters on this web site. It would take an inordinate amount of time to find and post links to negative news stories about GM’s financial situation even about a year back (before news stories about the dire financial situation of the world economy were in vogue) to place a bug in our ears to question the Volt and GM.
Keep sending the negative stories, Statik. Perception leads to reality. People who can’t form their own opinion by doing their own research rely on others to digest the facts and post their opinions. You know, “I hear so many stories that GM sucks, so I won’t buy one”. My next post below is from yesterday’s story, but it’s worth re-posting again:
———————————————–
Gary,
As you say the internet is a big place. And you don’t have to fill out a application to be part of it.
I can assure you I am not paid to post here…how do I prove that? I guess I can’t really. I would say that the frequency and varied hours of posting would indicate that I am not (although I admit, it would be sweet to get paid just to post your thoughts on the net all day). Usually if you are being paid to do something, that is considered a job….and you would find my posts only occur at set intervals. Just taking the last couple days, you will find posts from me in the early morning, afternoon and late at night.
You are right, it does take a lot of time to write posts that have links to back them up…but I only do that, so I have some credibility. Nobody wants to hear snippets of information or forecasts from someone without hard facts behind them, so I try my best to include them.
You said, “Keep sending the negative stories, Statik. Perception leads to reality. People who can’t form their own opinion by doing their own research rely on others to digest the facts and post their opinions.”
Perception can lead to reality that is true. But that is not what is happening to GM here. My posts here did not lead GM to be the insolvent behemoth it is today, nor did it cause them to claim to be building a cutting edge, sporty, comfortably under $30K electric car.
Because this is ‘the internet’ and Lyle has a ‘open forum’ policy, I will continue to post in the manner I see fit…and I’m sure you will as well.
I make no apologies for my posts…or for being accurate forecasting the future developments on the Volt or the company as a whole. My posts and their forecasts for the future of the Volt and GM are not the reason for them becoming true. I do understand your frustration when things are not going the way you would like them to, it doesn’t always work out for me either.
I’m sure we will see a lot more of each other here…and I look forward to future discussions.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Tim @ 55,
I love your sentiments–a true conservative and patriot. BUT, aren’t you just a tad sick of execs and board members making millions and billions while shareholders, employees, and customers get the shaft? I used to think exactly like you, but I’m just sick of the golden parachutes.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
ok ,ok ,ok . all you wise guys who think GM will cease to exist . how about putting your money where your mouth is — i bet any amount that GM WILL NOT ONLY SURVIVE BUT IT THRIVE !
you can pay me or i will pay anyone who wants to bet via paypal .
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Aw, first it was jet planes. Now we find that GM has ships as well that don’t seem to float, much like the company, hmmm? That’s Rick steering the ship! The GM Titanic!
It’s only TWO years until we see the VOLT driving on the road!
TWO years, it’s SO close! We must stick with Plan A, since Fritz declared, “no Plan B”!
Come on people, all we have to do is buy more gas-guzzling cars until then! Just give them the money and let’s get the SUVs going again!
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Saving the Big 3 for You and Me …a message from Michael Moore
Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008
Friends,
I drive an American car. It’s a Chrysler. That’s not an endorsement. It’s more like a cry for pity. And now for a decades-old story, retold ad infinitum by tens of millions of Americans, a third of whom have had to desert their country to simply find a damn way to get to work in something that won’t break down:
My Chrysler is four years old. I bought it because of its smooth and comfortable ride. Daimler-Benz owned the company then and had the good grace to place the Chrysler chassis on a Mercedes axle and, man, was that a sweet ride!
When it would start.
More than a dozen times in these years, the car has simply died. Batteries have been replaced, but that wasn’t the problem. My dad drives the same model. His car has died many times, too. Just won’t start, for no reason at all.
A few weeks ago, I took my Chrysler in to the Chrysler dealer here in northern Michigan — and the latest fixes cost me $1,400. The next day, the vehicle wouldn’t start. When I got it going, the brake warning light came on. And on and on.
You might assume from this that I couldn’t give a rat’s ass about these miserably inept crapmobile makers down the road in Detroit city. But I do care. I care about the millions whose lives and livelihoods depend on these car companies. I care about the security and defense of this country because the world is running out of oil — and when it runs out, the calamity and collapse that will take place will make the current recession/depression look like a Tommy Tune musical.
And I care about what happens with the Big 3 because they are more responsible than almost anyone for the destruction of our fragile atmosphere and the daily melting of our polar ice caps.
Congress must save the industrial infrastructure that these companies control and the jobs they create. And it must save the world from the internal combustion engine. This great, vast manufacturing network can redeem itself by building mass transit and electric/hybrid cars, and the kind of transportation we need for the 21st century.
And Congress must do all this by NOT giving GM, Ford and Chrysler the $34 billion they are asking for in “loans” (a few days ago they only wanted $25 billion; that’s how stupid they are — they don’t even know how much they really need to make this month’s payroll. If you or I tried to get a loan from the bank this way, not only would we be thrown out on our ear, the bank would place us on some sort of credit rating blacklist).
Two weeks ago, the CEOs of the Big 3 were tarred and feathered before a Congressional committee who sneered at them in a way far different than when the heads of the financial industry showed up two months earlier. At that time, the politicians tripped over each other in their swoon for Wall Street and its Ponzi schemers who had concocted Byzantine ways to bet other people’s money on unregulated credit default swaps, known in the common vernacular as unicorns and fairies.
But the Detroit boys were from the Midwest, the Rust (yuk!) Belt, where they made real things that consumers needed and could touch and buy, and that continually recycled money into the economy (shocking!), produced unions that created the middle class, and fixed my teeth for free when I was ten.
For all of that, the auto heads had to sit there in November and be ridiculed about how they traveled to D.C. Yes, they flew on their corporate jets, just like the bankers and Wall Street thieves did in October. But, hey, THAT was OK! They’re the Masters of the Universe! Nothing but the best chariots for Big Finance as they set about to loot our nation’s treasury.
Of course, the auto magnates used be the Masters who ruled the world. They were the pulsating hub that all other industries — steel, oil, cement contractors — served. Fifty-five years ago, the president of GM sat on that same Capitol Hill and bluntly told Congress, what’s good for General Motors is good for the country. Because, you see, in their minds, GM WAS the country.
What a long, sad fall from grace we witnessed on November 19th when the three blind mice had their knuckles slapped and then were sent back home to write an essay called, “Why You Should Give Me Billions of Dollars of Free Cash.” They were also asked if they would work for a dollar a year. Take that! What a big, brave Congress they are! Requesting indentured servitude from (still) three of the most powerful men in the world. This from a spineless body that won’t dare stand up to a disgraced president nor turn down a single funding request for a war that neither they nor the American public support. Amazing.
Let me just state the obvious: Every single dollar Congress gives these three companies will be flushed right down the toilet. There is nothing the management teams of the Big 3 are going to do to convince people to go out during a recession and buy their big, gas-guzzling, inferior products. Just forget it. And, as sure as I am that the Ford family-owned Detroit Lions are not going to the Super Bowl — ever — I can guarantee you, after they burn through this $34 billion, they’ll be back for another $34 billion next summer.
So what to do? Members of Congress, here’s what I propose:
1. Transporting Americans is and should be one of the most important functions our government must address. And because we are facing a massive economic, energy and environmental crisis, the new president and Congress must do what Franklin Roosevelt did when he was faced with a crisis (and ordered the auto industry to stop building cars and instead build tanks and planes): The Big 3 are, from this point forward, to build only cars that are not primarily dependent on oil and, more importantly to build trains, buses, subways and light rail (a corresponding public works project across the country will build the rail lines and tracks). This will not only save jobs, but create millions of new ones.
2. You could buy ALL the common shares of stock in General Motors for less than $3 billion. Why should we give GM $18 billion or $25 billion or anything? Take the money and buy the company! (You’re going to demand collateral anyway if you give them the “loan,” and because we know they will default on that loan, you’re going to own the company in the end as it is. So why wait? Just buy them out now.)
3. None of us want government officials running a car company, but there are some very smart transportation geniuses who could be hired to do this. We need a Marshall Plan to switch us off oil-dependent vehicles and get us into the 21st century.
This proposal is not radical or rocket science. It just takes one of the smartest people ever to run for the presidency to pull it off. What I’m proposing has worked before. The national rail system was in shambles in the ’70s. The government took it over. A decade later it was turning a profit, so the government returned it to private/public hands, and got a couple billion dollars put back in the treasury.
This proposal will save our industrial infrastructure — and millions of jobs. More importantly, it will create millions more. It literally could pull us out of this recession.
In contrast, yesterday General Motors presented its restructuring proposal to Congress. They promised, if Congress gave them $18 billion now, they would, in turn, eliminate around 20,000 jobs. You read that right. We give them billions so they can throw more Americans out of work. That’s been their Big Idea for the last 30 years — layoff thousands in order to protect profits. But no one ever stopped to ask this question: If you throw everyone out of work, who’s going to have the money to go out and buy a car?
These idiots don’t deserve a dime. Fire all of them, and take over the industry for the good of the workers, the country and the planet.
What’s good for General Motors IS good for the country. Once the country is calling the shots.
Yours,
Michael Moore
MMFlint@aol.com
MichaelMoore.com
P.S. I will be on Keith Olbermann tonight (8pm/10pm/midnight ET) to discuss this further on MSNBC.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Potential SAAB buyers
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200812030657DOWJONESDJONLINE000503_FORTUNE5.htm
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Just saw another news story today about the Fisker. It will be shown in near production form in January in Detroit.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/081203/law512.html?.v=33
If GM is not able to come through with the Volt ( which I do hope they can still manufacture) at least there looks like there will be a plug in serial hybrid for those that can spend more dollars!
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
#61 DonC
Hold up partner. Statik has a point of view. Personally I think he overdoes it but he backs everything up. It’s not exactly like others (not here but in the “media’) haven’t had the same opinion. An example of this would be the economist at the Senate Hearings. And he’s not nearly as negative as the editors of the WSJ. Now those guys I do question.
As for anonymity, if determined you could find him, assuming the things he says about himself are accurate, which I have reason to believe them to be. For that matter you could be “NotRickWagoner”! LOL
Let’s not shoot the messengers
——————————
Actually, those WSJ guys seems to be all over the place to me…very erratic.
If Gary or yourself want to ‘find’ me, it shouldn’t be so hard. I know I’ll be at the Detroit autoshow in 6-7 weeks…we can have a informal get together, lol.
As for claims about myself being accurate. I really don’t make any.
I’m just a guy who enjoys following the market and trades it (although sadly, I have only placed a solitary trade in many months…and that was only for ‘fun’). I also watch far too much CNBC.
I started out in the clothing business, I still have my own business doing that…it is profitable enough that I only go in once a week now. I spend most of my time at home with my young son. Over the last few years, my focus has shifted from my business to him and following/trading the market…which is what I truely enjoy doing.
My passion is being eco-friendly, I’m still not sure if it is a hobby or a way of life to me. I am a big believer in solar/wind technology and electric cars, I think they are a big step towards living well in the future. That is what brought me to GM-Volt.com. My early posts had little (if anything) to do with GM financially, although I followed it quite closely.
Not long after I arrived here I felt that the Volt project, as it was being represented to us from GM, was not accurate or feasible…so yes, most of my posts reflected that sentiment. Over time the main driver to the Volt project was GM itself…and my posts changed to reflect that.
/thats it, I’m just a guy with a opinion…who also happens to have a lot of free time and a penchant for following the market and living green
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Statik, You are right on the money, bud.
Gary is obviously frustrated. Perhaps he is not getting any? But then again, who is? I asked last night, and my wife told me no because we are in a recession.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Healthy GM:
1.Pre-packaged chapter 11 with government backing( People who do not want chapter 11 do not understand chapter 11). What’s the diiference now since Gm is laying off tons of people anyway and not paying suppliers now even if they get bailout loan.
2.Restructure company after renegotiation with Union,suppliers etc.
Reduce brands without fear of being sued(chapter 11 protection) by dealerships. Dealerships are going out of business now anyway. Suppliers are going out of business anyway with or without bailout money.
3.Without huge amount of money going to Union/health care(health care coverage would become like everyone elses) they can invest more money into R&D and quality control. Chapter 11 gives GM about 6 months with no fear from debt. What the difference- GM is not paying supplier/bankloans etc less than 6 months out now.
Would you rather have a Volt built by a finacial healthy company or a company cutting corners because of money problems.
I don’t understand the fear of chapter 11. GM would survive Chapter 11. I wouldn’t hesitate to buy a car from a chapter 11 GM back by a government loan. In a chapter 11 money is put aside to cover existing warranties.
The only bad thing about chapter 11is the whole upper chain of management would be gone. I guess that’s why Waggoneer doesn’t want chapter 11.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Has anyone considered for a moment the possibility that GM and the Big 3 have dismal November sales in large part because of their own doom and gloom talk?
They whine about Chapter 11, but right now why would anyone who is considering buying a car from someone begging in front of Congress in one of the biggest news stories out there?
Wagoner needs to step down for PR purposes, he thought with big government liberals gaining near absolute federal power that corporate welfare would be a slam dunk, but they did it with the old Congress still in session and the story needing to be drawn out for their dramatic purposes of hiding the reality that they are in fact big government wasteful spenders.
Rudi #67, that choice of (an unending) quote calls into question the validity of any future post of your’s.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:15 pm
#68 kdawg
Potential SAAB buyers
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200812030657DOWJONESDJONLINE000503_FORTUNE5.htm
=========================================
Hrm, sounds familar.
http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2008/07/bidders_interested_in_buying_h.php
Same ’strategic review’
Same ‘many interested parties’
Same ‘no names mentioned’.
It was a poorly kept secret that GM was quietly shopping SAAB before this, also much akin to the HUMMER brand…when that failed they put it out in the open. I don’t know who is looking to buy a auto maker in this environment.
Side note: GM sold 852 SAABs in NA in november, they sold 1,454 HUMMERS.
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/12/02/by-the-numbers-november-2008-brother-can-you-spare-a-dime-ed/
They sell a heck of a lot more in Europe though, lol…jsut thought it was interesting.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:22 pm
I went to one of the best engineering schools in the USA.
WE had a lot of Japanese students because the Schools in the USA are better.
These students were not any better than American students.
In fact our prize student who won engineering awards for innovation was a previous US military engineer who tough the entire class after class including the Japanese students.
So this hiring Japanese Engineers is a bit offensive and a very poor uneducated statement.
The engineers want to build the best quality products. Its management that limits the engineer’s ability to build
The engineers have all these great designs and management says no that’s too costly come back and make it cheaper.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
#74 Statik
Same ‘no names mentioned’.
——
FWIW,
BMW AG (BMW.XE), Renault SA (13190.FR) and Tata Motors (TTM) are all reportedly potential buyers.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Bill Biletorf #75 says,
The engineers want to build the best quality products. Its management that limits the engineer’s ability to build
———–
I’m not an engineer but this is how I see it also.
For the Volt, GM really needs to allow the engineers to do their jobs and make this car spot-on.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Tim –
I mostly agree with your sentiments about not intervening in business… but one thing sticks out to me.
The government already has intervened and meddled in the auto industry. Legislative support is what gave the UAW the ability to make those demands of the auto companies – leading to the huge competitive disadvantage the legacy costs have become. The government’s bungling and screwing with the financial markets has caused the credit freeze that’s hurting all the auto makers. These things were all done in the public’s name.
That’s the sole reason I feel it’s appropriate for the public coffers to be opened up to help keep these companies afloat and give them a chance. We owe them something for having sabotaged their free enterprise in the first place.
————————————————————
BTW… Being a good upstanding Michigan boy myself,
Mike Moore’s fat arse can cry all he likes. “Boo hoo my car broke down again”…. “I had the battery changed, but it didn’t work….”
Yeah. Keep living up to the stereotype of the overfed, useless, inept, undereducated, whiny, entitled hosehead that the rest of the world sees Americans as.
Anyone who would like some respect from the rest of the world; we as a society have no self respect these days. Why should anyone else show us any ? I’d say we need to collectively take a good hard look in the mirror.
Find something you can take pride in, and BE PROUD of it !!
Semper Fiero !!!
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:33 pm
#77
Rashiid Amul Says:
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Bill Biletorf #75 says,
The engineers want to build the best quality products. Its management that limits the engineer’s ability to build
———–
I’m not an engineer but this is how I see it also.
For the Volt, GM really needs to allow the engineers to do their jobs and make this car spot-on.
————–
I’m an electrical engineer, and people always ask me if something is possible. I always reply, with enough time & money, anything is possible. But in reality, sometimes you need to shoot the engineer and just start production.
sorry for all the cliche’s
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:36 pm
#76 kdawg
BMW AG (BMW.XE), Renault SA (13190.FR) and Tata Motors (TTM) are all reportedly potential buyers.
————————-
Sorry thats my fault, my bad.
I meant no names mentioned by GM…not in the news article itself. I think HUMMER had a couple ‘Indian’ companies mentioned and a Saudi one. Mahrinda or something…I can’t remember the name exactly.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
#79 kdawg,
Ya, unfortunately a lack of money always seems to be a problem.
I write software. Programs could be better, more robust, etc.
But deadlines have to be met. So something has to give. I think it is the nature of things.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
How the auto industry affects your State:
This is kind of insteresting since we have ppl from all over the US on this site (sorry no Canadien figures)
http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/article/20081203/INTERACTIVE01/81203001
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December 3rd, 2008 at 2:08 pm
#70 Statik – “As for claims about myself being accurate. I really don’t make any.”
What I meant was that over the course of time you mention things like your having a solar system for your house, what car(s) you drive, or the fact that you’re married. If you’re determined you can find people based on small pieces of information like that. That’s all I meant.
I wasn’t questioning your bone fides that you had no bone fides! LOL As for being a guy with a penchant for green, is there any green where you live at this time of year?
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December 3rd, 2008 at 2:41 pm
DB Cooper (#78)
You’ve got our founding father’s point. Gov’t meddling CAUSES problems like the ones we are now facing. That’s why we WERE a nation of laws not men and that’s why we have the Constitution and 10th Amendment. What I don’t understand is HOW people like you think MORE of the cause equals a cure?
Mr. “Cooper”, do you REALLY believe that the cure for cancer is to give the patient MORE cancer?
STOP THE INSAINITY!!!!
As far as executive pay goes, I don’t care if they drive THEIR companies into the ground with executive pay. That’s between them, their Board, their stockholders and employees. If you can’t trust a company, then DON’T WORK OR INVEST THERE!
IT’S NOT MY BUSINESS until they ask for MY tax money to dig out the company that THEY buried so we can just give it back to them so they can do it all over again.
Sorry children, if you lose or break your toys I’m NOT buying you another one. I love you and this is the ONLY way I can teach you PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY!
Mr. “Cooper”, I Suggest YOU mind your OWN business and let GM and the others mind THEIR business without OUR (Gov’t) intervention. It’s time they pay for their poor decisions.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 2:42 pm
#67 clinches it … Statik is really Michael Moore.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 2:55 pm
#5 MDDave said :
People can’t drive their old cars forever.
——————————-
Yes they can. I kept my old VW Golf for 15 years and just got tired of repairs to do; the car was still roadworthy. My wife’s car is a 1992. In Cuba, they still have their old american cars of the ’50s.
The only way to make absolutely sure that people will buy is to come up with a new technology that clearly makes the old one obsolete. Like an EREV for example. The rest is just discretionnary spending and when the going gets tough, people are cautious about spending 20 grands on something that will be worth 10 in 2 years.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:04 pm
It is a sad story anyway you read it. I think the requirement for the three to come back with a “plan” was an effort to get support and cover from enough Republicans to get the loan passed while still within this administration. Later on, if things go sour, everything could be blamed on Bush and the Republicans. They don’t need Republican support to later blame it on Bush. If anything goes bad over the next 36 months, he will get the blame.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Statik,
GM should shop SAAB with the German company that wanted to buy Saturn to make it a ”green” car company. They could do the same with SAAB, don’t you think?
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:15 pm
#87 N. Riley –> Well said. Last week my school’s football team lost to its main rival and I knew it was because of George Bush. After January 20, we’ll never lose to them again. (smile)
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:17 pm
#75 Bill Biletorf
you are correct about the Japanese engineers versus American engineers. The Japanese succeed where we fail not because they are smarter than we are, but because they work smarter than we do. They are committed to quality and driving down cost from the top management down to the janitors. Everyone works extremely hard and long hours to do their utmost to insure success. We talk about not buying cars made on Monday by weekend revelers and on Friday by those looking forward to the weekend. I don’t really know if that is true or not, but I do know that we as Americans are pitted against each other by all the forces available in our country starting with the government, the press and the unions to name but just a few. Unions in Japan work with the company and the government. They have worker councils that are composed of union, plant, management and government personnel devoted to finding solutions to problems. This is just the tip of the iceberg that represents the difference between the Japanese industry and American industry. I am sure most of you know some of the other differences.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:21 pm
#83 DonC said,
What I meant was that over the course of time you mention things like your having a solar system for your house, what car(s) you drive, or the fact that you’re married. If you’re determined you can find people based on small pieces of information like that. That’s all I meant.
I wasn’t questioning your bone fides that you had no bone fides! LOL As for being a guy with a penchant for green, is there any green where you live at this time of year?
#85 Paul-R says,
“#67 clinches it … Statik is really Michael Moore. ”
===================================
Hey, no encouraging stalkers, lol. (Although very prestigious). Very little green up here right now, there is some though. (I am also officially not Michael Moore…I think he has a lot of holes in his position on this situation)
Actually, I have no solar system for my new place…I think I mentioned it, but I ‘downsized’ big time before the real estate market started to tumble to preserve my equity.
I have been musing about buying components (if I spot a deal) to start over in the spring, I’m just not 100% sure what I want to do in my current situation. I really like being able to ‘turn on a dime’ and be liquid…it is a strange sensation.
(If I do pull the trigger, maybe I’ll start a ’solar-blog’ on the process…for other people who want to get into it).
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
If starting production was left completely to engineers production would never start. They would continue tinkering and tinkering trying to improve this and that. Somewhere you have to let the changes occur in the next release.
As far as GM is concerned, lets say they get the loan and make it until the Volt is released from production to the dealer showroom. Well, my opinion is that if the car doesn’t get top notch reviews from the automotive press and consumer magazines, GM may as well roll up their blanket and go home. It will all be over but the crying, so to say. If they had not delayed the Cruz until well after the Volt and got enough of them in the market and if they were well received, GM could probably have time to “fix” the Volt’s short comings. This brings up another question: Is the redesign of the Chevrolet Impala that was scheduled as a 2010 still on tap? This redesign, assuming it is as good as the Malibu, could go a long way helping GM bring in a lot of new car sales. I know that I looked at the 2008 Malibu and decided that I would wait for the larger redesigned Impala. That was before I found out it would not be redesigned until the 2010 model year. So, I bought a 2009 Honda Accord EX-L. I wanted to buy a Chevrolet, but could not wait another year.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
#54 Paul-R:
Amen brother. Preach on!
#67 Rudi:
Thanks for the cool Michael Moore quote. I really enjoyed it.
#85 Paul-R:
While I wouldn’t hang the Michael Moore name on Statik (unless he wanted it), they certainly have one thing in common. They were both predicting the present mess long before it was fashionable to do so. If you go back to Roger and Me, made almost 20 years ago I believe, MM put the handwriting on the wall even then.
Great comments today bloggers. Thanks.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
#92 N Riley:
According to the recent Autoweek 2009 Buyers Guide, the Impala will be redone in 2012. Sorry.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:46 pm
#90 Riley
Your sort of right. As an American engineer, working for a Japanese company, I have 15 years of experience working with the Japanese engineers. I’ll be there all next week going over a mess of issues (from their end). Most of the time I end up re-engineering most of what they do, because its just “stupid” for lack of a better phrase. I do think you are correct though, they take more pride in their work, even if it isnt the best way to do something. I also notice they will never admit when they are wrong or make a mistake. They will always twist the situation to get out of it. I think its part of that “pride” thing. If for some rare instance you get them to admit they are wrong, you’d think the world just ended. Then us American engineers smile & say, that’s OK, that’s why pencils have erasers. They are not used to that easy-going attitude. Which i think is actually a good thing to have in a stressful job.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Other insights. Japan is much greener in general when it comes to manufacturing. However they give very little regard to worker safety when compared to the US. Employees dont sue their employers, no OSHA, etc.. Therefore, no reason to spend millions on safety for the workers.
(disclaimer: these are my opinions/experience.)
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Read Ford’s plan. They think they can get a BEV sedan out in 2011!
Talk about a flip-flop!
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December 3rd, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Having read the GM plan, there has been lots of fundamental progress in changing GM that is well underway but not completed, so it is generally unrecognized. Rick Waggoner has been at work and his efforts have not been noticed, as yet. Aside from the better cars coming to market, that I attributed to Bob Lutz, like the Malibu, STS, CTS and Volt,I though Wagonner had not done nmuch. But the dealership issue is actually virtually completed and not as commentators would maintain, not even fully begun.
So Wagonner has addressed and is solving the main GM issues: Unequal cost, Unequal quality, and Product redundancy run amok. All jobs appropriate to his office, even as he has recruited and assigned getting better product to a recognized professional in Bob Lutz.
The UAW finally accepted reality in 2007, but the full benefit won’t be apparent until 2010, and beyond. In 2008 and 2009 it is creating one-time costs that none of the Detroit three can handle in this environment.
Unstated but by implication, I deduce, Saturn and SAAB should/will be annexed by Opel/Vauxhall. GM Europe should/will export to America and the ex-Saturn dealerships provide an easy to construct, existing distribution channel. No one else in the world, has the money now, or need to buy Saturn/Saab. GM Europe even has a ready made transplant in Tennessee to use too to mitigate currency changes if needed.
A question to be answered still. Will the sub-brand Pontiac vend “small cars” G6 and below, or “sporty cars” Solstice, G8 and Goat? PBG dealers will raise a ruckus for a high volume (probably small) car to sell.
Had the Chrysler merger gone ahead, it would have been easy to kill off the Chrysler brand and simply substitute Dodge for Pontiac, in the Plan. The Minivans would provide a high volume vehicle, unique to GM, for PBG, or rather DBG. Dodge is a small car brand with a sporty image too, and heavily into trucks. Dodge’s truck efforts, including arrangements with Cummins T2B5 diesels, CAB chassis 4500 and 5500s, would augment GMC commercial trucks too. The GMC heavy duty pickups are award winners, but the new Ram 1500 appears to be a winner in the light truck segment, and could differentiate GMC from Chevy trucks.
Jeep could go anyof the brand channels…
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December 3rd, 2008 at 5:32 pm
#94 Noel Park
“#92 N Riley:—
According to the recent Autoweek 2009 Buyers Guide, the Impala will be redone in 2012. Sorry.”
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Yeah, well, this is another example of GM making bad decisions. The Impala and the Cruze are very important to GM’s future, as well as is the Volt, of course. I guess money problems sidetracked both of them. Too bad.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 5:35 pm
#95 kdawg
In a stressful environment or not, an easy going attitude is always best. As long as you know when to tighten up and batten down the hatches and get work done. We could learn a lot from the Japanese, but they could learn a lot from us also.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 5:44 pm
Just two months ago, Wagoner was assuring everyone that GM was OK through the end of 2009.
He MUST have known this was wrong. GM’s cash burn was already immense, their profitability had long been negative, there was no reason to expect auto sales to pick up steam any time soon and the bright, shining star of GM’s firmament, the New Malibu, had already peaked and no reason to expect anything else to pick up share, either. The Camaro, which is still months away, was not an engine for profitability and the Volt program will be a drain through 2015.
What was Wagoner doing? Was he wrong? Misguided? Lying?
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December 3rd, 2008 at 6:42 pm
charlie h said…
“Just two months ago, Wagoner was assuring everyone that GM was OK through the end of 2009. He MUST have known this was wrong. ”
Two months ago, most people didn’t know about the world-wide recession, didn’t know about the credit market crisis, and didn’t know the US economy (including the US auto industry it) was on the verge of collapse.
A lot of perceptions and opinions have changed since then.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Charlie h (#101)
Wagoner didn’t see the rapid drop in new vehicle sales coming and was caught with is pants down like most people. I guess he was watching Paulson blow smoke up Bush’s butt on the network news instead of using his own God given common sense.
It’s VERY simple: MORE fiat currency with easy credit equals MORE debt and MORE inflation which ultimately causes a “tipping point” of MORE defaults producing FEWER people and companies who can borrow which leads to Less sales and Less production which stalls the economy leading to FEWER jobs which causes MORE defaults and so on. (more debt is never the answer to paying off debt)
He should have listened to Ron Paul and the Austrian Economists instead of IDOTS like the Neocons, Democrats, their network news flunkies and the rest of those who follow Keynesian Central Planning (socialist) economics.
PEOPLE AND COMPANIES MUST LIVE WITHIN THEIR MEANS. CAPITALISM STARTS WITH SAVED AND INVESTED CAPITAL AND NOT DEBT!!!!
Those who can NOT live within their means must be liquidated to pay their creditors and to make room for those who CAN.
(God, liberals (neocon & democrat) are thick headed!)
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December 3rd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
I work for a Japanese manufacturer. Most folks ask me if we are eager to see the big 3 fail since they assume we will capture some of the remaining market share.
Yes and no. Here’s the problem: Every Japanese and Korean auto manufacturer with factories in the United States shares suppliers with the big 3. The suppliers are already feeling ALL of the same pain manufacturers are – since the suppliers are selling fewer parts and components to the manufacturers.
There is an enormous problem that lies with the fact that many suppliers are shared among ALL auto manufacturers in the US. Let’s say there is a common supplier with GM and a Japanese competitor. GM is 70% of the supplier’s business, the Japanese company is 20%, and a Korean company is 10%. GM goes out of business and the supplier will follow. If the government did not bail out GM, they certainly will not bail out its supplier. Now, the Japanese and Korean companies with factories in the US cannot get parts to build cars. The supplier has molds, tools, and dies that are specific to the models produced. Other suppliers may produce similar items for Ford, Chrysler, other Japanese companies, etc, but these are not the same parts.
The Japanese and Korean companies have 3 options:
1. Bail out the supplier and become a “debtor in possession” (the very thing the US government was not willing to do).
2. Get the parts/components from another supplier. This will take about 12 months for another supplier to ramp up production with the tools, dies, and molds provided by the Japanese/Korean manufacturer. It’s just like working with a supplier when you launch a brand new model car. Only you are already building the car, but your brand new supplier has to catch up. Thus the 12 month reserve of parts must be made by the original supplier who needs to be “temporarily bailed out” until they can finish building the reserve.
3. Become your own supplier. Once again, you need to BUILD your own factory, and ramp up production. This take about 12 months, minimum. Which means you still need to “temporarily bail out” the original supplier until they can make 12 months of reserve.
All three of those options are horribly expensive. Keep in mind, the Japanese companies may be in much better financial condition but the cash reserves ARE NOT UNLIMITED. Total industry volume is down 45%. So less cash is coming in, fixed overhead is spread over smaller volumes (which means each car/truck is less profitable no matter what price you sell it for). Borrowing money is expensive. The final source of capital to pull off one of the only three options you have is to issue more common shares, which for the Japanese companies is not attractive since share prices are down about 50-60%.
Any of the big 3 failing will lead to an absolute industry crisis and horrendous job loss, and Korean/Japanese/German manufacturers that have factories in the US will be deeply affected.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 7:27 pm
Oh man. I hate bailouts, but I have gradually been convinced there is no other way. I justify this to my capitalist self by the following – manipulation of the free market (rating crappy mortgages AAA, etc.) got us into this, so I don’t think there is any way to undo the damage without (benevolent) manipulation of the free market. Even though the government will undoubtedly screw tons of things up (like leaving the UAW as a powerful force), there is no other alternative that I can fathom. Or maybe I just want the Volt (actually any E-REV would make me happy) to succeed so bad that I am delusional. Ah well.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Here’s an idea. Instead of bailing GM out with a loan, take over GM and produce smaller passenger cars with ONLY E-REV, hybrid, and PEV drive-trains for the US market. Produce trucks with only diesel engines for the US market (GM has a new smaller diesel engine nearly ready to go for variety.)
Then put a floor on the price of gasoline using a tax, so it doesn’t go below a certain level. Leave the price of diesel alone for heavy vehicles that cannot be run on electric at this point, or even cut taxes on diesel if needed to keep the nation working. As the gov’t owned GM entity sells more E-REV/hybrid/PEV vehicles, raise the floor on the price of gas. This will drive folks towards buying these vehicles at the same rate as they become available for purchase.
It’s evil, and it’s anti-free market. But it is the fastest way to get us off of relying upon burning oil to run passenger vehicles. Other car makers will either quickly follow suit, or lose market share to GM. The gov’t will be able to directly determine GM’s success by adjusting the taxes that support the floor on the price of gasoline, vs. the surplus of vehicles they have on their lots for sale.
Yea, I don’t think it would work either. But it’s an interesting idea to put out there.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:18 pm
On the topic of engineering: I recently heard somebody mouthing off in a blog that for every 10 upper level engineering degrees awarded in US schools, there are 88 upper level engineering degrees awarded in China.
Out of each 10 degrees awarded in the US, only 6-7 of them stay in the US, the other 3-4 go overseas. Most of the Chinese degree holders stay in China to work for Chinese companies.
Again, this was a dude on a blog, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.
Whatever advantages we’ve had in the past for our highly educated US workforce may be facing a nasty mathematical challenge.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Interesting how nobody touched my posting about marketing and swayed perception…
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December 4th, 2008 at 12:09 am
#102,
GM’s credit was in the tank long before the credit crisis. The credit crisis hasn’t damaged credit-worthy companies.
#103,
GM’s share and units have been tanking, seriously tanking, for a while. And their transaction prices have been lousy. If Wagoner was expecting some sort of miraculous turnaround, he’s a fool. GM’s done nothing to their product lineup to warrant any such expectation and he should know it.
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December 4th, 2008 at 7:36 am
I wonder how much of these billions will go to add more bling to the next model of Escalade?
Or better yet, the Hummer H2 yuppiemobile.
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December 4th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Gary,
Maybe nobody thought it was worth reading. Now that you have called our attention to it and your post to statik, I noticed you wrote:
“People who can’t form their own opinion by doing their own research rely on others to digest the facts and post their opinions.”
That’s something I often hear from Detroit fanbois, who think it’s somehow inappropriate for buyers to look at CR and form an opinion based on CR’s survey of the market.
Well, that’s a laugh. I’m not going to operate a fleet of a million vehicles and track expenses or mail out a few million surveys and process the results… I’m going to go to the experts who do the surveys and find out what everyone else’s experience has been and use that to help form my decision.
And, I am happy to tell you this, CR’s recommendations track closely with my own experience. I’ve started buying vehicles CR recommends and my automotive expenses are way down. Way down. And, not coincidentally, I’ve switched to Toyota. Those cars have saved me money.
That’s Detroit’s challenge.
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December 4th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
The last thing the government should be doing is using taxpayer money or having the Federal Reserve create it from thin air to decide which corporations will survive despite not being able to maintain a profit. It’s bad enough that they are doing it with banks… If automakers want money from the government, it should be given to ANY AND ALL U.S. automakers that are producing electric cars.
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December 4th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Sadly – GM is blaming the market for it’s economic woes.
Really?
I blame GM.
They killed the electric car YEARS ago – when it could have saved their bacon this year.
They have been putting all their efforts into huge gas guzzler SUV’s – and over-charging for them as well –
Heck, I am no market analyst – however, I thought gas was expensive in 2000 – let alone 2008.
You know what I did? I bought a used toyota tercel and get 53 US MPG ( for real ) on the highways. Gm could offer me nothing I would even want to look at. I paid 2300 btw.
I am all for GM becoming top of the hill again – however, they need to do it with good business decisions.
Last point – are they announcing their salaries and pay out they get when the company goes under?
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December 5th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
Ghost, not only has GM been putting all their efforts into huge gas guzzler SUV’s – and over-charging for them, but their customer base has also.
For years GM’s customer base has been just rolling in one upside-down car loan into another upside-down car loan. It worked because each new SUV was so much more expensive than the last one that the amount of the loan rolled into the new loan was less than GM’s profit margin. Now their loans are so far under-water that not even GM can roll them into new car loans. Especially into loans for cheaper cars.
GM won’t recover until their buying base does what any buyer has to do when they are upside-down in a loan. Stick with making payments until it is no longer upside-down. Maybe even stick with payments until they have enough equity in their car that it serves as a down payment for their next car.
Back to the basic market fundamentals for car loans. Whether they are electric cars or not.
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May 10th, 2009 at 3:26 pm