Nov 30
GM’s Canceled LA Auto Show Conference: Was it Going to be the Volt Battery Contract Announcement?
The most important component in the Chevy Volt is its lithium-ion battery pack.
We have been hearing for some time that an announcement about which supplier GM had chosen to maek those packs would be coming by the end of this year.
Reuters had previously reported that LG Chem/CPI had gotten the contract and noted the official announcement would be coming in November. Compact Power Inc.’s CEO also told GM-Volt.com previously that he needed to know if he’d gotten the contract by the end of this year in order to tool up for November 2010 production.
Aside from waiting for the redesign unveiling, which we did get in September, learning about the battery pack supplier and all the attendant details was an equally or more important thing.
Recent reports stated that GM had canceled a press conference it was intending to have at the LA Auto Show. It was not said what the nature of that press conference was actually going to be about, and the reporter indicated to me “he wasn’t sure.”
Pure conjecture, but sadly I imagine it was to have been the Volt battery contract announcement. Other outside experts also suspect this. GM sources would not confirm or deny this fact, indicating that the topic of what that conference was going to be wouldn’t be divulged at this point.
December begins tomorrow without an official battery announcement, as GM’s fate now lies in the hands of Congress, and their viability plan which will be submitted on Tuesday.
This entry was posted on Sunday, November 30th, 2008 at 7:37 am and is filed under Battery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:10 am)I’m sure they are not willing to commit to anything unless they receive the funds from the Government.
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:28 am)I’ve always felt that GM would be wise to buy into the battery supplier they select, if not buy them outright. However, the most they can hope for would probably be a joint venture with the battery maker.
So I’ve long suspected that GM, whichever battery supplier they select, would want to enter a joint venture contract to give them better visibility and control of this critical omponent….. And that helping that supplier by providing part of the massive funding needed for the battery factory, tooling, etc would be the leverage they’d need to make a joint venture acceptable to the battery maker.
It may be they’ve delayed the announcement until the bridge loan from Congress becomes a certainty to improve their chances of bargaining with the battery supplier to enter such a joint venture.
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:29 am)I have seen the Volt on display twice. In Santa Monica and in Los Angeles. The GM people on site said very little about anything to do with the Volt. Many onlookers had rumors and guesses to share.
I even tried backing into a question, “So this will have a 7 gallon fuel tank?”. Reply, “The fuel tank size has not been announced”.
=D~
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:41 am)I guess we will be waiting until after we see “the plan”…………
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:52 am)Wonder if the “cancellation” of the press release has anything to do with holding out for Uncle Sam’s dollars…
Does anyone else feel like GM is slowly pulling the Volt away from production status, as well as us consumers? I hope not, but a press release is a press relase…it is just talk and there’s no reason to cancel something like the battery contract unless they want leverage over the government bailout. Grrrr.
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:58 am)Those at GM uses GM Volt for the only purpose: To get bailout by congress, once they get money, they will drop GM Volt due to technical difficulties, (If Toyota/Honda can’t do it, why GM can???)
Shame on them, I will boycott GM/Ford/Chrysler for the rest of my life if they get bailout using my $$$
Nov 30th, 2008 (9:03 am)I think everyone is reading too much into things now. One part of the conference was going to be on the reveal of the new Buick LaCrosse sedan and Cadillac SRX crossover.
Both of these are pulled from the LA show under the PR-nightmare that is the GM financials, so no need for a press conference about not introducing something. (And to keep Lutz the heck away from reporters until they get their bag of money).
Look for both of them to be revealed at the Detroit auto show…and another press conference, lol. Battery contract stuff is only ‘news’ to a very select few…like us.
Nov 30th, 2008 (9:07 am)Well – it’s all come down to this Tuesday.
How are they getting there?
CEO pay cut?
What brands get sold?
My guess is the Volt is ‘THE PLAN’ for the future. What else is there???
Nov 30th, 2008 (9:41 am)Yes, we will just have to wait and see what GM‘s fate will be. As others have said, if the battery manufacture does not get a contract then they cannot start on the factory. Read that as a Volt delay.
One more point. How would the battery manufacture feel about a contract from GM when they are about to go into bankruptcy and might just be able to cut the contract? It’s a lot of risk. I’m just hoping the leaders of our country realize what has been said so many times before – the battery IS the Volt. Without great and affordable batteries the EV and plug-in hybrid are going to have a tough time making it.
Nov 30th, 2008 (9:56 am)#9 Texas said,
One more point. How would the battery manufacture feel about a contract from GM when they are about to go into bankruptcy and might just be able to cut the contract?
———————————-
This is a good point, I have a feeling that LG will not be giving GM any kind of ‘terms’ and that a sizable pre-order payment or ‘deposit’ fee to cover LG’s infrastructure setup/development costs would now be demanded…which may be why the announcement is delayed.
Regardless, the fact that we are still seeing absolutely nothing on the contract/production front is casting a very large (and ever growing) shadow on the release date…and the project in general.
Even the overly optimistic here on the forum have to be getting nervous at this point. 23 months until the release deadline and counting (well actually only 22, almost everything at GM is shut down while waiting on this bailout money…almost all work/production is on hiatus until January even as we speak)
Nov 30th, 2008 (10:03 am)surprise , surprise . the ENERGIZER BUNNY got the volt’s battery contract !!!!
Nov 30th, 2008 (10:34 am)The battery manufacturers are not incompetent. They know they hold the future of transportation and they also know GM’s Volt is their best bet right now to usher in that technology. I am sure they will work with GM no matter what happens. The billions of dollars they stand to make during the transition to E-REV, outweighs the small loss they might have first couple of years. That goes for GM as well as the battery manufacturers.
NPNS!
Nov 30th, 2008 (10:50 am)Anyone want to guess at what GM, Ford, and Chryslers “Plan for success” will be?
If GM was working “fervently” in the last hours to create this plan, then I expect that it will be mostly fluff, and will say all the things that Congress wants to hear. The problem will be since they no one knows when the economy will come out of its current downturn, then there is no way to present a fact based plan. The plan will likely contain many assumptions (optimistic in favor of a quick recovery), that show how they survive and pay back the tax payers.
The bottom line is that these companies need to feel the pain of the decisions in the past. To bailout now, sends a message that says “If you made bad decisions in the past then, we (tax payers) will help you out”.
How do we now deny bailouts to any company that comes a knockin’? Do we only bailout LARGE companies? Do we bailout companies that have made poor business decisions in the past? Do we bailout companies that have 5 employees?
I have lots of questions, with few answers…
Nov 30th, 2008 (11:08 am)TV pundits and political opportunists would tear GM apart if they made the announcement of a multi-million (billion?) dollar battery contract, and then turned around and went to Congress begging for a loan. It would be political suicide, especially after the whole “private airplane” bruh-ha-ha. The Big 3 can go to Congress this week, get the loan. Then GM can make the battery contract announcement by the end of this week or next week. That would still technically be before the “end of the year” deadline that Compaq’s CEO mentioned. A week one way or the other is not going to make or break the Volt.
Nov 30th, 2008 (11:24 am)Citigroup gets a $300 billion dollar bailout last week. Hardly mentioned in the media. The public is already growing numb to these announcements, yet to save the auto industry, a PLAN is required. I certainly agree, by why the double standard.
Charlie Rose: Pandit, the CEO from Citigroup suggests everyone and everything else was at fault, but not a single metion of management incompetence at the heart of the failure. Another honorable Captain of Industry wants his golden parachute and the American taxpayer to pick up the tab.
Bailout GM and let the rest go to Hades.
Nov 30th, 2008 (11:28 am)#9 Texas #10 Statik – K with bankruptcy looming.
I agree that entering a K when the opposite party is on the brink of bankruptcy is not a good thing. They can wait a bit until things get sorted. And yes, Statik is right that a news conference about a battery contract is not exactly press fodder. Talk about boring for most people.
#13 JEC – “The bottom line is that these companies need to feel the pain of the decisions in the past.”
I’m puzzled by the expressed concern that the company hasn’t been held responsible. I get the need for “moral hazard,” but haven’t the shareholders been wiped out? Aren’t the shareholders the owners of the company? And why, if they are wiped out, doesn’t that satisfy the moral hazard requirement?
As for making people suffer for things done by others long ago, I know of no rational for this. What do you think that will accomplish? It sure isn’t going to change behavior or provide an incentive to make the right decisions. Personally I put this in the same category as killing members of some ethnic group as retribution for some horrible thing other members did 500 years ago. It’s crazy. Holding people responsible for their decisions is one thing, holding them responsible for what others have done at some point in the past is altogether different.
Having said this, the management in Detroit are not all in the same position.
Nov 30th, 2008 (11:54 am)MarkinWI #14
“Compaq’s CEO”. Now that’s funny right there. Freudian?
Nov 30th, 2008 (12:04 pm)Statik@10 said in part:
“Even the overly optimistic here on the forum have to be getting nervous at this point. 23 months until the release deadline and counting (well actually only 22, almost everything at GM is shut down while waiting on this bailout money…almost all work/production is on hiatus until January even as we speak…”
—————————————————————
I continue to believe that an Independence Day, 2010 release date is achievable – if all the stars and planets align correctly. Admittedly, I have heard that the GM bailout legislation will contain language that puts me on the Endangered Species List…. or maybe it had to do with mental health support services (I forget which, but qualify either way).
Statik, I appreciate the softer tones of some of your posts. It somehow reminds me of a Dr. talking to a family about their loved one on life support – and the need to discontinue extraordinary measures. A tough message, delivered in a humane manner. As I read that, it’s probably a very poorly chosen analogy (g).
Important things, however unlikely, seem to have a way of working themselves out. Besides, GM can’t fail today, because it’s already tomorrow in Australia !
Be well,
Tag
LJGTVWOTR!! NPNS !
Nov 30th, 2008 (12:33 pm)16 DonC
Puzzled?
“As for making people suffer for things done by others long ago, I know of no rational for this. ”
—————————————
What are you trying to convey? “long ago…”, EVERYTHING we do is in the past, so not sure what “long ago” means. If you cannot use the past to judge a company, then how do you suggest you do this?
As for shareholders being decimated by the GM stock plunge, you are exactly correct. As with any investment you live with the risk of company failure. That’s how it works. I wish no harm to anyone and my moral compass is intact. But, throwing money to a company that has made bad decisions in the PAST (yes, the past, cause I ain’t no fortune teller).
NBA! Period.
Nov 30th, 2008 (12:39 pm)Lyle, it’s a shame you had to inject your political view at the end of an otherwise non-biased article (for a change). Ie. “GM’s fate now lies in the hands of Congress”… this is your view, and definitely not a majority view. Throwing money at them now, and more when they come back to the well in the Spring, and probably a few more times at least after that, does not mean it will “save” GM… nor does not throwing money at them mean the end of GM.
Nov 30th, 2008 (12:47 pm)Jeff M @ 20 says:
Lyle, it’s a shame you had to inject your political view at the end of an otherwise non-biased article (for a change). Ie. “GM’s fate now lies in the hands of Congress”… this is your view, and definitely not a majority view. Throwing money at them now, and more when they come back to the well in the Spring, and probably a few more times at least after that, does not mean it will “save” GM… nor does not throwing money at them mean the end of GM.
____________
Since when does Lyle have to sensor his own blog? If you don’t like the “view,” time to write your Congressperson. I don’t always agree with Lyle, so that’s how I resolve it. Try it.
Nov 30th, 2008 (1:10 pm)$16 DonC says
“I’m puzzled by the expressed concern that the company hasn’t been held responsible. I get the need for “moral hazard,” but haven’t the shareholders been wiped out? Aren’t the shareholders the owners of the company? And why, if they are wiped out, doesn’t that satisfy the moral hazard requirement?”
=================================================
How do you stand on GM’s management?
Have they made any bad decisions, or do you see them as simply victims?
Nov 30th, 2008 (1:10 pm)How many packs is GM ordering? 60,000? about $300 million worth.. they burn that in 5 minutes anyways..
Nov 30th, 2008 (1:19 pm)The most defining technology is the battery pack. Who every owns that owns the way and means to the future. If GM. wants real competition then let the battery maker think that GM is using them as a pond. If they don’t do anything then they aren’t ready because who needs GM with there track record with the electric car Then your right this is just a ploy to get financing and the games being and maybe without GM
Nov 30th, 2008 (1:31 pm)There is a column in the January issue of Motor Trend Magazine by Frank Markus (page 26) titled “Flying Hybrids”. I couldn’t make a link to it. In the column he talks about a new technology for electric power that may drive Boeing 737s from the gate to take-off and back to the gate upon landing. The cost and fuel savings from taxiing this way are amazing. Twice in the column he suggests that the Volt has this extraordinary power plant called “mesh-connected windings”. That coupled with Ultracapcitors, as has been mentioned here several times, Markus states could produce a solid 50 mpg with the ICE running. I don’t understand it all but it is interesting reading.
Nov 30th, 2008 (1:38 pm)Jeff M @ 20 says:
Lyle, it’s a shame you had to inject your political view at the end of an otherwise non-biased article (for a change). Ie. “GM’s fate now lies in the hands of Congress”… this is your view, and definitely not a majority view…
———–
How is Lyle’s statement political? GM’s management have all but said the company is out of business without a government bailout. Maybe Congress will say no to the bailout and determine GM’s fate that way.
Nov 30th, 2008 (1:40 pm)#16 DonC
I’m puzzled by the expressed concern that the company hasn’t been held responsible. I get the need for “moral hazard,” but haven’t the shareholders been wiped out? Aren’t the shareholders the owners of the company? And why, if they are wiped out, doesn’t that satisfy the moral hazard requirement?
As for making people suffer for things done by others long ago, I know of no rational for this. What do you think that will accomplish?
——————————
I’m not sure about this either, it really is not a question of making someone/something suffer. The suffering is done between 9:30am and 4pm, 5 days of the week…that is where the consequences of their actions come to fruition.
That being said, I can still pull for Wagoner to be fired, because I believe he is the wrong person for this time in GM’s life…I’m going to continue to pull for Fritz, he seems very capable to me and has the right pedigree.
Nov 30th, 2008 (1:43 pm)#2 nasaman Says: “I’ve always felt that GM would be wise to buy into the battery supplier they select, if not buy them outright.”
————————————————————————————–
LG is a little big for GM to swallow, even during good times.
In 2007, LG’s income was $95B, GM’s income was $181B.
Nov 30th, 2008 (1:48 pm)#18 Tag
I continue to believe that an Independence Day, 2010 release date is achievable – if all the stars and planets align correctly. Admittedly, I have heard that the GM bailout legislation will contain language that puts me on the Endangered Species List…. or maybe it had to do with mental health support services (I forget which, but qualify either way).
Statik, I appreciate the softer tones of some of your posts. It somehow reminds me of a Dr. talking to a family about their loved one on life support – and the need to discontinue extraordinary measures. A tough message, delivered in a humane manner. As I read that, it’s probably a very poorly chosen analogy (g).
Important things, however unlikely, seem to have a way of working themselves out. Besides, GM can’t fail today, because it’s already tomorrow in Australia !
Be well,
Tag
LJGTVWOTR!! NPNS !
—————————————–
Still July 4th Tag?
I dig that about you. You are certainly the most optimistic person I know…I’m sure I am your antithesis in this regard.
Nice to see you kicking around. You don’t post enough anymore.
Side note: I am trying to switch to the ‘kid gloves’ as much as I can. I’m not a big fan of kicking sick puppies…or pushing homeless people out the way as I get my Starbucks. (Tim Horton’s actually, but not everyone would get the reference)
Nov 30th, 2008 (2:00 pm)#6 cheaters Says: “Those at GM uses GM Volt for the only purpose: To get bailout by congress, once they get money, they will drop GM Volt due to technical difficulties, (If Toyota/Honda can’t do it, why GM can???)
Shame on them, I will boycott GM/Ford/Chrysler for the rest of my life if they get bailout using my $$$”
————————————————————————————–
1) GM’s bean counters have figured out that by 2020, there won’t be enough oil to meet demand, forcing car sales to drop dramatically. So GM really does need the cars like the Volt in order to keep sales going long term.
2) Toyota and Honda tend to shy away from revolutionary new designs. In fact, Toyota’s stated mantra is evolutionary innovation. That’s why their cars are so reliable and affordable. They don’t take risky bold steps. The only reason they did hybrids was because the American PNGV program scared them into it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partnership_for_a_New_Generation_of_Vehicles
3) If GM gets bailed out, and they survive, then your tax $$$ will be returned. In other words, the bailout is not giving GM money. It will either be a loan, or a purchase of GM preferred stock. In either case, the U.S. government gets the money back with interest or stock profit if GM survives.
On the other hand, if GM fails, it may well take Chrysler and Ford with them, since many companies that supply parts to all 3 would also go out of business. This would result in 3 million lost jobs, which would cost the U.S. government 4 times as much as the bailout in lost income taxes and unemployment benefits.
So to be clear, the bailout risks $25B in order to save $100B in taxpayer dollars. Yes, the bailout sucks, it’s the lesser of 2 evils.
Nov 30th, 2008 (2:22 pm)#15 jbfalaska says,
Bailout GM and let the rest go to Hades.
———————-
I don’t know why there is a double standard. Perhaps because we have been hearing the whining of the US automakers for years, while we have hardly heard anything from the suffering banks.
I hear Hades is nice and warm this time of year.
Nov 30th, 2008 (2:26 pm)Statik@25 said in part:
Still July 4th Tag?
I dig that about you. You are certainly the most optimistic person I know…I’m sure I am your antithesis in this regard.
Nice to see you kicking around. You don’t post enough anymore.
Side note: I am trying to switch to the ‘kid gloves’ as much as I can. I’m not a big fan of kicking sick puppies…or pushing homeless people out the way as I get my Starbucks. (Tim Horton’s actually, but not everyone would get the reference)
Yeah, we’ve always been the Yin and Yang of the valences here. I too enjoy your absolute insistence on current facts and apparent inability to trust that very good things can still happen even when “the facts” are definitely against it. I’m not sure if you are old enough, but if you had had ALL the hard data available on Pearl Harbor Day, you’d have had to bet against the allies. If I had access to the same data, I’d have wagered correctly (and German is still optional in high school).
There really are times when failure is not an option – and this is one of ‘em.
Be well,
Tag
PS I’d post more often, but my keyboard keeps getting busted when I get knocked down in front of Starbucks…
Nov 30th, 2008 (2:28 pm)Tagamet, #18
It is good to hear from you. It has really been a long while.
I am happy you are still here.
- Rashiid.
Nov 30th, 2008 (2:32 pm)#20 Jeff M Says:
Lyle, it’s a shame you had to inject your political view at the end of an otherwise non-biased article (for a change). Ie. “GM’s fate now lies in the hands of Congress”… this is your view, and definitely not a majority view.
——————
I didn’t see this as a political comment at all.
If it is not up to Congress, then who is up to?
Lyle did nothing wrong. Perhaps you are being to sensitive?
Nov 30th, 2008 (2:36 pm)I have not had the time to read any of the comments above, but I believe GM would have to pay out a large sum of money on signing the contract and they don’t have it to pay out. That is my take on why the delay and more delay on announcing the contract. Of course, I may very be wrong.
Nov 30th, 2008 (2:44 pm)#35 N. Riley — on GM paying a large sum on contract signing
==============
Sometimes a simple explanation is the best one.
What you say is quite likely.
Nov 30th, 2008 (3:01 pm)#8 Demetrius Says: “Well – it’s all come down to this Tuesday.
How are they getting there?
CEO pay cut?
What brands get sold?
My guess is the Volt is ‘THE PLAN’ for the future. What else is there???”
————————————————————————————–
Definitely CEO pay cut. Maybe a new CEO.
Brands like Saab and Hummer get sold. Brands like Pontiac and Saturn will get combined with Buick, Chevy, etc.. GM may merge with Chrysler, and combine their brands.
Flex Fuel (E85) will be mandated by Obama. Cellulosic ethanol is getting real (and cheap).
http://www.coskata.com/EthanolFeedstockPotential.asp
More cars like the Cruze. 2-mode hybrids. Plug-in parallel hybrids.
And more E-REV models, especially a sport wagon!
Nov 30th, 2008 (3:12 pm)Way off topic, but since we have a lot of smart people here, lets see how this goes.
TRAINS
I think the locomotive could be one of the easiest answers to many off our current problems. Much cheaper, and faster than the move to electrify cars (I still think electric cars will be the future, but the transition will be over many years)
So, if I were king, here would be my first command to my minions.
1) Expand the existing infrastructure of railroads. Sadly, railroads are being removed and not replaced. This needs to be reversed, with increasing number of lines. Add more hubs in more cities…
2) Begin transition of over-the-road freight to locomotive. The locomotive moves freight with a fuel consumption rate of 1 gallon to move 1 ton of freight, 400+ miles. Something no semi can come close too.
Look at all the benefits:
1) Reduction in oil dependency
2) Reduction of pollution and greenhouse gasses
3) Reduction in highway congestion. Rush hour may be more tolerable, since semi’s are a major cause in some areas of congestion. Semi’s have a slow acceleration rate, and in rush hour traffic cause many bottlenecks.
4) Reduction of road maintenance repairs. (will be increased cost for rails, but not sure of the cost differential…?)
5) The king gets to ride the rails for FREE
6) Can GM build trains? If not, bail them and have them build a fleet of locomotives (just kidding, NBA!)
Nov 30th, 2008 (3:13 pm)#37 Dave G
Maybe you are a visionary. Sounds pretty good to me.
Nov 30th, 2008 (3:16 pm)13 Jec: “The problem will be since they no one knows when the economy will come out of its current downturn, then there is no way to present a fact based [turnaround] plan.”
I just wish that one of the auto execs would have the nads to say: “After YOU [while pointing at US Congress members] can tell us when the economy will get off the ground after throwing HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars at the banks which have done NOTHING to get the economy unclogged, THEN we will be able to give you a solid turnaround plan. Stop making it sound like WE’RE the only ones who can’t manage money properly”
Nov 30th, 2008 (3:17 pm)#38 JEC
More trains with better road beds would be good, but the cost of developing those would be tremendous. I would certainly like to see less big rigs on our highway systems. My opinion is that trucks should be limited to local transportation and be much smaller than 18-wheelers. We can do it but it will take more effort than our current congress has in them. They are much more interested in spending money to get re-elected than anything else.
It would help if trucks would use CNG for fuel and get away from diesel completely.
Nov 30th, 2008 (3:37 pm)I think we need a battery bailout ;>)
Uncle Sam (taxpayer) pitches in $20k for the battery and I’ll pitch in $20k for the car.
A million Volts sold and GM is on the road to recovery !
Nov 30th, 2008 (3:41 pm)#19 JEC – “But, throwing money to a company that has made bad decisions in the PAST (yes, the past, cause I ain’t no fortune teller).”
Putting aside the the maxim, completely supported by experience, that past performance is not a guide to future performance, the “bad decisions” that were made were made 50 years ago. My point would be to pretend that the workers at GM, or even the management to a large extent, are responsible for those bad decisions is crazy. The people who made those decisions are probably dead, and the shareholders have long since departed the scene.
#22 RB & #27 Statik – GM management.
I don’t follow this closely enough to have any great insight, but it seems to me that Wagoner has been in charge of GM for a very long time, more than time enough to have straightened things out.
From what I gather GM is very bureaucratic and could use some cleaning. Wagoner does not seem to be up to the task.
Nov 30th, 2008 (3:42 pm)RB # 22, DonC # 16
I agree RB, where is the moral hazard for GM taking the shareholders for everything they’ve got, then doing the same for taxpayers, going to bankruptcy court, then doing the same for suppliers and then saying, “I’m sorry but salvaging this company is too hard to do” and bailing out with a golden handshake?
Nov 30th, 2008 (4:45 pm)Why should GM be waiting for the taxpayers to bail them out. How
about big Oil stand up and ante up some money, after all the Oil Companies and the Auto industry have been hand and hand. Bail
yourselves out. Taxpayers have been taken to the cleaners by Wall Street and the Bankers. Enough is Enough!
Nov 30th, 2008 (6:02 pm)Rashiid,
Thanks for the “Hi” – right back at you too. I make every effort to keep caught up with the site. It’s just that the last several months, the tides have been running against me. Things will get settled out, probably before the 7/4/2010 Volt release (g).
Be well,
Tag
Nov 30th, 2008 (6:26 pm)#38 JEC – High oil prices have already given rail a big shot in the arm. Warren Buffett bought nearly 15% of Burlington Northern earlier this year. Some Dems are talking about high speed commuter rail – I’m not sure that I believe that it would be profitable outside the East Coast corridor.
#17 Whozit – Entirely Freudian. Thanks for the laugh.
Hey, I just noticed that the list is over 45,000! I’d like to tell Lyle to send that to Congress for the Big 3 Begging Session. However, I suspect that a fair number of the regular posters would go bananas.
Nov 30th, 2008 (6:28 pm)hi RichardG #25,
“… could produce a solid 50 mpg with the ICE running.”
______________________________________
We hear the Volt mpg being compared to a Cruze (expected 40 mpg). Don’t forget that the Cruze ICE will be connected to a transmission. The 1.4L Cruze will require at least 3000 rpm to maintain freeways speed (75mph).
The Volt ICE will be driving a generator and never run faster than 2200 rpm. Or the equivalent of the Cruze ICE gliding along at 50mph.
=D~
Nov 30th, 2008 (6:55 pm)No one has even mentioned the UAW benifits package. If they don’t make “major” concessions in that package (in the ballpark of 50%) then the Big 3 will be better off in Chapter 11. I doubt that the unions will let it happen so maybe chapter is GM’s only salvation
Nov 30th, 2008 (7:05 pm)Autoworker chief pleads for government aid
Sunday November 30, 1:58 pm ET
“We cannot afford to see these companies fail,” said Ron Gettelfinger, the UAW chief, calling on Congress to approve the aid during a special session the week of Dec. 8.
The UAW is willing to consider more concessions on wages and benefits as part of any new federal aid, Gettelfinger said, but other parties have to share in the sacrifice.
“We’re prepared to go back to the table,” Gettelfinger said. Still, he added, “Based on the changes we’ve made to our contracts, we are competitive” already.
________________________________________
Sen. Lindsey O. Graham, R-S.C., said he would not back the help for the U.S. auto industry.
“I don’t believe it is a good idea to take $25 billion and give it to the three major car companies, which I think have a business plan that’s doomed to fail,” he said.
Like many Republicans and some Democrats, Graham said it would be better to allow one or more of the struggling companies to go under and restructure in bankruptcy.
Oh the drama… =D~
Nov 30th, 2008 (7:15 pm)#43, DonC: “Putting aside the the maxim, completely supported by experience, that past performance is not a guide to future performance, the “bad decisions” that were made were made 50 years ago.”
First, I’ve never heard that maxim and I’ve seen w-a-a-y more A students get A’s in subsequent years than I’ve seen F students get A’s in subsequent years.
Second, Wagoner and Lutz have made plenty of bad decisions in their own right over the last few years. In ’03, Wagoner re-committed GM to big trucks and SUVs. That worked out sooo well.
The recent manual Cobalt XFE program could have been done back in ’04, when the Cobalt was NEW and done a world of good for GM’s fuel economy mindshare (never mind that they still haven’t XFE’ed the automatic Cobalt). They could have siphoned off a tiny fraction of the SUV development funding to do this years ago. Imagine if GM had introduced a new Cobalt with class-leading fuel economy… the advertising would have worked so well. As it is, they now have to advertise, “The Cobalt doesn’t suck any more.” That ship has sailed… the public believes that the Cobalt gets mediocre fuel economy.
And, GM, fix the fuel economy of the Aveo, will ya?
The SSR – man, that was one stupid vehicle. Both too heavy for a decent dragster AND a pickup with insignificant tow capability and negligible load capacity. The centerpiece of the ad campaign the year it was introduced, it sold badly. How many years did it take to clear the inventory off the lots after they discontinued it? Two? Are there still SSRs languishing on dealer lots?
The Solstice, with its dinky trunk, is too impractical even for a weekend car and, for whatever reason, doesn’t sell. Still, GM put extra funding into badge-engineering a clone, the Sky, that also doesn’t sell (and double the marketing and ad support budgets, too). Bonus: they lose money on every one.
The upcoming Camaro, a replacement muscle-type coupe for a muscle-type coupe that they had to kill BECAUSE OF LOW SALES. Moreover, it’s a one-off on the platform, so there won’t be any sharing of development costs and I’ll bet credits to Navy beans that they can’t build it on the same line as anything else, so it doesn’t help GM with their inflexible manufacturing problem.
The GM two-mode hybrid program. Would you like a hybrid that carries a $13K premium yet can still be described as a “gas-guzzler?” Apparently, few people seem to want such a product. There’s one on the nearby Chevy lot that has been sitting there for about 8 months. Maybe they’ll make somebody a sweet deal on it… someday.
The BAS hybrid program has potential but GM sells it for MORE than a Prius and it is way less effective than a Prius drivetrain. Do you suppose that there’s any real commitment to what is, in principle, not such a bad idea? Probably not. In any event, negligible quantities sell.
And the current management was firmly in place when all these “bad decisions” went down. Current management deserves to lose its job.
Nov 30th, 2008 (7:18 pm)#38 JEC says,
I think the locomotive could be one of the easiest answers to many off our current problems.
———–
I wonder if electric trollys would also be helpful. But again, the infrastructure would have to be built.
Nov 30th, 2008 (7:24 pm)Tagamet ,
I sincerely hope you have your health, my friend.
Most everything else can be fixed.
-Rashiid.
Nov 30th, 2008 (7:29 pm)#38 JEC on TRAINS
=======================
Thanks for the thoughtful post. Indeed trains are very fuel efficient, and many transportation analysts credit the US for having the best freight railroad system in the world. Most heavy goods (such as rocks and steel and gravel) already travel by rail, mostly, as well as many other containerized goods that travel on the train-truck routes, where the long haul is by train and delivery is by truck, with no repacking, as the trailer of the truck is loaded on to the train as a unit.
Changes that are realistic and that would save huge amounts of fuel, as well as attract freight from less fuel-efficient trucking, are ones that address the choke points on rail that exist in relatively few places.
One is getting through various tunnels into NYC and points north from points south and west. Another is getting over the mountains from Virginia to points west. (You can stand on the pedestrian bridge over the tracks at Roanoke VA and see how heavy this traffic is, one train after another almost non-stop.) And a third is getting electrification in place for locomotives on heavily traveled routes south and west of the NY-to-DC corridor.
All these possible changes involve right of way. They are mainly a matter of rules and regulations, and acquisition of the needed land. They all could be done, if there is a will, and at a reasonable cost to the feds, or possibly even no cost as users are willing to pay for faster and more predictable service (which is what is lacking for time-sensitive freight).
GM makes many of the locomotives. Helping the railroads would help that part of GM, directly.
Nov 30th, 2008 (7:29 pm)#47 MarkinWI says,
Hey, I just noticed that the list is over 45,000! I’d like to tell Lyle to send that to Congress for the Big 3 Begging Session. However, I suspect that a fair number of the regular posters would go bananas.
==============
I’m okay with it. I’ve been here, like, forever it seems. Or at least very early 2007. I would actually love to know when I made my first post. This is the first blog I have ever made a comment on. It is very important to me and has become part of my daily life. I’m pretty sure that I am not alone.
Nov 30th, 2008 (7:42 pm)#51 Charlie H says,
Current management deserves to lose its job.
===========================
It’s the first thing I will do when Congress puts me in charge. I promise.
Nov 30th, 2008 (7:57 pm)Volt on display…
http://garfwod.250free.com/Photos/LA%20Volt%20045.jpg
=D~
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:04 pm)55 Rashiid Amul
This has really been the only site I have ever regularly blogged on. I find myself addicted to the discussions. Some posts really make me think, some make me laugh, and some torque me off (not many, and I find I am less apt to go off the edge, but instead listen to others opinions, even if I do not agree).
My wife occasionally walks by, while I am typing away at this blog, and just shakes her head. She really does not understand why I “waste” my time with this stuff (To each, his own…).
As far as putting my name on the list (re: MarkInWI), I would be one of the monkeys who likes to keep his banana’s to himself.
Take care!
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:12 pm)#58 JEC,
I think our wives are related.
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:14 pm)19 JEC (self))
Funny how I re-read my old posts and notice that I have a sentence that appears to go nowhere. I must have been interrupted (I forgot to mask my interrupts, thank you) in the middle of my blog, then came back, tried to finish it, then I just submitted it.
I apologize for those who have to read my trailing thoughts…
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:17 pm)The US Government should have a direct rebate of $5,000 for any car owner to trade in their gas hog for a new Ford /GM/Chrysler ECOnetic Diesel. Each car company could license the technology from Ford and be responsible for producing and selling 3.5 million of these cars in less than 2 years! The cars would cost under $20,000 dollars and could be amortized for 7 years. This would create a payment of around $250.00.
This would put workers on the assembly line, cut the demand for fuel by millions of gallons, create a funding stream for the big 3 to use while they develop a Volt-like car, and reduce greenhouse gases by the millions of pounds per year! 10 Million car owners are ready for this type of car, why not give them one. Read below.
Ford Fiesta ECOnetic Diesel
At the British International Motor Show, Ford has introduced the ECOnetic version of its Ford Fiesta. The engine is a 1.6-liter Duratorq TDCi (diesel) that has been tweaked for efficiency. Fuel economy for the ECOnetic Fiesta is 3.7 L/100km (63.6 mpg US) combined, or 3.2 L/100km (73.5 mpg US) on the highway! It’s not exactly a race car, with 0 to 60 mph in 12 seconds, but those who will buy it won’t care, the mileage will more than make up for it.
Nov 30th, 2008 (8:38 pm)JEC It is not true that railways are all shrinking. BNSF is one of the largest US railway companies.
BNSF Railway has completed construction of a third main rail line through Cajon Pass in Southern California that will increase capacity on BNSF’s Chicago to Los Angeles Transcontinental (Transcon) route from 100 to 150 trains a day. The $90 million project adds almost 16 miles of third main track to BNSF’s route into the Los Angeles Basin.
Cajon Pass is located between the San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountain ranges, just north of the City of San Bernardino. Approximately 75 to 100 freight and passenger trains currently traverse this route on a daily basis. Each intermodal train on these tracks can take more than 250 long-haul trucks off of the region’s local highways. Additionally, freight trains are more fuel-efficient than trucks and can move one ton of freight more than 400 miles on one gallon of diesel fuel.
http://www.bnsf.com/media/news/articles/2008/11/2008-11-06b.html
/Emphasis mine
Nov 30th, 2008 (9:23 pm)Well GM has known about hybrids for a long time.
http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/09/priustoric—-g.html
I thought they got it all wrong. Thats why I gave them mine. They are now using it to claim high ground. We shall see what it gets them.
Take Care
Arch
Nov 30th, 2008 (9:31 pm)Rashiid@53
Thanks. Everything works out according to His plan (and thank GOD I don’t mean Statik)(g).
Be well,
Tag
LJGTVWOTR!! NPNS
Nov 30th, 2008 (9:47 pm)#62 NZDavid
That’s great news!
I know many of the old railroad tracks in WI have been torn out and replaced with walking or bike paths. Good to know that the rail industry is still growing in some places. Hopefully, it will continue.
Nov 30th, 2008 (9:57 pm)#51 charlie h – “Summary: GM is terrible”
You can point out that GM has made a lot of mistakes but let’s look at the situation realistically. In the 60s GM made the decision to bear the cost of health care and pensions for its workers. This was applauded as rejecting “socialism” and as being all-American. Whatever the truth of this position, it wasn’t a very good decision, because it resulted in burdening the Detroit manufacturers with obligations which importers and latter arriving transplants didn’t have. In current dollars that’s a difference of $1600/vehicle.
That’s the source of the problem. What is the solution? You obviously think highly of your analytic abilities, so what exactly would you have done if you had a $1600/car bogey and the margin on a small car is, at most, $1500/vehicle? I’m all ears.
I’ll tell you what Detroit did. Because they couldn’t compete in small cars they sold large cars and trucks. Of course to do this they needed to relax the CAFE standards. Under normal circumstance this might have proved difficult, but not with New Gingrich and his bunch of bunglers in charge. Not only did they relax the CAFE standards, they passed legislation that prevented the government from even looking at CAFE. In doing so they compromised both the environment and our national security. They also delayed Detroit’s day of reckoning.
When that ran its course Detroit and the UAW got serious. The UAW took some hits, agreed to handle the health care, and agreed to a lower pay scale. Detroit started slimming down their white collar workers, cutting overhead, and cutting dealers.
Unfortunately the financial crisis has caused the day of reckoning to arrive, notwithstanding some good work which has been done. Normally this would not be a big deal. The moral hazard would be satisfied as shareholders bought GM stock, didn’t insist on the necessary changes, and got wiped out. Moral hazard satisfied.
But these are not normal times. They’re not normal because our elected elite, including Lindsey Graham and the always master screw up Newt Gingrich, once again didn’t do their job and allowed the financial markets to spin dangerously out of control. So out of control they’ve crashed despite who knows how many TRILLION dollars have been thrown at the problem. Consequently, right now there is no financing available, and all the normal means of resolving business issues are unavailable.
Realistically, from an equity standpoint you, I, and the rest of the taxpayers of this country deserve to foot the bill for these bailouts. Everyone acts as if the taxpayers are innocent victims, conveniently forgetting that we elected the nitwits who enabled the financial markets to run riot and relaxed the CAFE standards. Not to mention all the people who actually bought all those SUVs that they now say Detroit should never have made. So the bottom line is that we elected very poor leaders, and we are now going to have to live with the consequences. Admit your responsibility for the problem, stop whining, pick up a bucket, and start bailing, We’ll get there faster.
Nov 30th, 2008 (10:24 pm)#64 Tag said,
Rashiid@53
Thanks. Everything works out according to His plan (and thank GOD I don’t mean Statik)(g).
—————————————————–
/everything isn’t working out according to my plan?
(Just kidding, I echo Rashiid’s sentiment, I hope you are doing ok too).
—–
Side note (about my plans that will probably go bad): I decided to get back into the market (but only for amusement purposes), I picked up some Quad-Q puts (doesn’t have the same ring as triple Qs) late last week. (For those who don’t follow the lingo/market too closely, I am basically betting the Nasdaq goes down in the short term).
Not a investment strategy by any stretch (so I’m not giving out advice, lol), mostly just gambling for entertainment and to make watching CNBC a little more entertaining — just 36 contracts. (Still have my equity tied up in boring, but secure low to mid single digit return vehicles).
Jan put (strike $29.00), $2.22
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QAVMC.X
/could be fun to play along and watch me hideously fail
Nov 30th, 2008 (11:08 pm)# 66 DonC
>> But these are not normal times. They’re not normal because our elected elite, including Lindsey Graham and the always master screw up Newt Gingrich, once again didn’t do their job and allowed the financial markets to spin dangerously out of control. So out of control they’ve crashed despite who knows how many TRILLION dollars have been thrown at the problem. Consequently, right now there is no financing available, and all the normal means of resolving business issues are unavailable…
>> I’ll tell you what Detroit did. Because they couldn’t compete in small cars they sold large cars and trucks. Of course to do this they needed to relax the CAFE standards. Under normal circumstance this might have proved difficult, but not with New Gingrich and his bunch of bunglers in charge. Not only did they relax the CAFE standards, they passed legislation that prevented the government from even looking at CAFE. In doing so they compromised both the environment and our national security. They also delayed Detroit’s day of reckoning…
>> Realistically, from an equity standpoint you, I, and the rest of the taxpayers of this country deserve to foot the bill for these bailouts.
___________________________________________
Man, I just can’t let this one pass.
1) Newt Gingrich hasn’t been in Congress at any time in a decade, much less a member of the “elected elite”
2) Lindsey Graham is hardly a member of the political elite, no matter what he thinks.
3) It’s pretty well established that Democrats in congressional banking committes (e.g. Chris Dodd, Barney Frank, Barak Obama) fostered and protected Fannie and Freddie. Exactly how much these entities contributed to the credit meltdown may be open to debate, but there’s no question they triggered it.
4) The Democrats have controlled both houses of Congress for the last two years. The economy went in the tank during THEIR watch. You want to blame figurehead politicians, blame Pelosi and Reid.
5) CAFE is irrelevant. From the moment Congress passed the first CAFE standards, the auto manufacturers were hunting for loop holes. The market determines which vehicles will sell and which will sit on the dealer lots. Past performance absolutely confirms this (compare small car sales during the last year with SUV/truck sales from the prior nine years).
6) GM has made fuel efficient vehicles for decades… in Europe, because they sell well with the heavily taxed fuel in Europe. During the last year, I’m sure GM would have been thrilled to sell high MPG Opels and Vauxhalls in the U.S. if only they could have gotten the cars past the EPA and NHTSA.
7) None of the US automakers could see the crude oil bubble coming. Neither could Toyota or Nissan (check the Tundra, Armada, etc. if you think otherwise). Hell, I’m in Houston and while the oil execs knew this was a bubble, no-one knew how far it would go, when it would burst or how far it would drop.
8 ) I DESERVE to foot the bill? I mean, me personally??? I accept responsibility as an American citizen and I’ll live up to that responsibility to the best of my ability. Since when does arbitrarilly assigning blame solve anything?
Oddly enough…
>> pick up a bucket, and start bailing, We’ll get there faster.
I agree with your conclusion, but I take issue with how you got there.
Nov 30th, 2008 (11:21 pm)I was at the Los Angeles Auto Show today. The Volt was only there as a chassis. I asked where the Production “Style” Volt was and they said it was on its way to Washington DC.
Nov 30th, 2008 (11:43 pm)Hi Folks, just a couple more days before the big three release the big plan…
Any cars going to DC must be on the way by now. Or at least they must be loaded onto the truck.
What would I have done different if I was GM? Well I see the SSR and the Solstice in this thread. I would have put the retractable hard top of the SSR on the Solstice. Maybe even the whole body in smaller proportion. I drooled over both. Both are out of my reach though.
If the above mentioned vehicle also had electrically driven front wheels for a 4wd option, well that would be even cooler. For now I will just watch and see what happens.
As for betting against the market after a five day run up, that makes sense. However are we not testing the market bottom?
Why not invest in oil futures? All the woolly bears have lots of wool and the berries have been plentiful. Age old signs of a long cold winter. Or is Al Gore right and the cold winters are behind us.
My wife also thinks I am nuts as we surely can not afford a Volt, however I am exploring many new parking lots looking for employment. I still remain optimistic.
Cutting edge technology is tough, however we all want it to work. We are here to make it succeed (I could go on and on that!).
Good luck to everybody, the big three and the VOLT!
Nov 30th, 2008 (11:43 pm)1) GM’s bean counters have figured out that by 2020, there won’t be enough oil to meet demand, forcing car sales to drop dramatically. So GM really does need the cars like the Volt in order to keep sales going long term.
Their only hope of making money is still regular vehicles in the next 5 years. I think GM wants to have EV, but battery technology will NOT allow it any time soon.
2) Toyota and Honda tend to shy away from revolutionary new designs. In fact, Toyota’s stated mantra is evolutionary innovation. That’s why their cars are so reliable and affordable. They don’t take risky bold steps. The only reason they did hybrids was because the American PNGV program scared them into it.
>>
I just sent some battery to Honda (for my company) for evaluation, they are dead serious about anything that improve MPG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partnership_for_a_New_Generation_of_Vehicles
3) If GM gets bailed out, and they survive, then your tax $$$ will be returned. In other words, the bailout is not giving GM money. It will either be a loan, or a purchase of GM preferred stock. In either case, the U.S. government gets the money back with interest or stock profit if GM survives.
On the other hand, if GM fails, it may well take Chrysler and Ford with them, since many companies that supply parts to all 3 would also go out of business. This would result in 3 million lost jobs, which would cost the U.S. government 4 times as much as the bailout in lost income taxes and unemployment benefits.
>>
No chapter 11, no success.
So to be clear, the bailout risks $25B in order to save $100B in taxpayer dollars. Yes, the bailout sucks, it’s the lesser of 2 evils.
Dec 1st, 2008 (12:12 am)I hate the idea of a bailout as much as anyone. However, don’t be too naive to fail to recognize the fact that Japanese car manufacturers have also enjoy all types of favors from the Japanese government for decades.
Dec 1st, 2008 (12:43 am)+1 for TRAINS (to move both people and goods).
Unfortunately, I believe GM sold off EMD (Electro-Motive Division) a little while back, so they no longer benefit from any railroad boom (which seems sure to happen in this day and age…just look at Amtrak ridership and congestion on the freight railroads).
Anyways, I am trying to remain optimistic about the Volt but it’s hard not to be preoccupied by all this dark economic stuff. I am really rooting for GM. As I have said before, their commitment to the E-Flex has really changed my opinion of them. They seem to genuinely want E-Flex to be a major part of GM’s future, and I believe that despite past wrongs they deserve a chance to get E-Flex to market. It would be such a tragedy for me if they made it this far only to go bankrupt or otherwise fail. Get the Volt in the hands of consumers so they can get hooked on electric propulsion! 2010 cannot come soon enough.
Dec 1st, 2008 (2:17 am)[...] GM’s Canceled LA Auto Show Conference: Was it Going to be the Volt … [...]
Dec 1st, 2008 (4:06 am)[...] GM’s Canceled LA Auto Show Conference: Was it Going to be the Volt Battery Contract Announcement? (none) Visit the original post at: Transportation News Bookmark It Hide Sites [...]
Dec 1st, 2008 (8:20 am)#70 Red HHR
As for betting against the market after a five day run up, that makes sense. However are we not testing the market bottom?
Why not invest in oil futures? All the woolly bears have lots of wool and the berries have been plentiful. Age old signs of a long cold winter. Or is Al Gore right and the cold winters are behind us.
—————————————-
I’m just not feeling that bottom. I’m not seeing earnings forecasts continually knocked down so the bar set low enough for companies to beat. I’m not seeing the freeing up of credit markets or stabilization of the housing market. I can’t argue with the fact the market had its best week in like…almost a century, but I can’t justify the move in my mind.
I thought we needed to lose more, so I’m ‘hoping’ we retest those lows….in a purely selfish/entertainment sort of way. My ‘what I think’ mindset is in conflict with what I like to see happen for the world, but you have to be objective or you lose.
Your right investing in oil is always a good long term move. However, I think if we experience more short term pain on the markets (like I am forecasting), we can’t also see the rebound of oil simultaneously, they seem to be mutually exclusive things in this environment…so if I am betting the market to drop I can’t take up a contrarian point of view (well, I could if I wanted balance…but I’m just doing this for amusement).
Dec 1st, 2008 (12:58 pm)How can GM accept a loan from the US Taxpayer, and buy the battery technology from a company that [unsubstantiated fact ahead] does not have a production facility in the United States [check unsubstantiated fact].
Is LG (or whoever) going to produce the pack in the US?
The whole bailout is about protecting union-level pay, which is why the bailout is assured, sooner or later. GM may plan to announce at the hearing that they, with 100% certainty, are going to receive batteries made in the USA.
Anyone know where LG said they were going to make these things, FOR CERTAIN?
On another note, I’m waiting for my usual call from the Pontiac garage…the Pontiac saved up a big repair bill for Christmas so my kids can’t have the presents they wanted. Does anyone want the Over/Under on a 1,000 dollar repair bill?
This will officially send the price of repairs to 30 percent of it’s purchase price, to reach 142,000 miles.
Is GM a great company, or what?
Dec 1st, 2008 (3:08 pm)For what it’s worth, when I asked Samantha the “Volt Girl” about the battery contract at the LA auto show last Wednesday she was of the opinion that the winner would be announced at the Detroit auto show in January. This clearly wasn’t an official GM position, it was just her opinion.
Ramz #69′s statement about the functional show car having headed off to Washington is consistent with what Samantha said to me Wednesday. If you’re interested in what else I learned, my post is here:
http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2054
Rick
Dec 1st, 2008 (4:12 pm)#67 Statik (me)
#70 Red HRR
#76 Statik (me)
=============================
Guess this won’t be the day of my hideous failure. Market got obliterated today.
DOW – 678.6 (-7.7%)
NASDAQ – 137.5 (-8.95)
QQQQ $26.94 -$2.18 (-7.49%)
Those 36 Jan puts (strike $29) from $2.20 to $3.45, up almost 60% on the day.
———————
Bringing it back around to GM, today was one of the all-time worst days for the market…probably not a good day to follow with a trip to Washington to outline your ‘turnaround plan’ and ask for bailout money.
Tomorrow is also november auto sales release day for GM…and all the other manufacturers.