GM Expects an Initial Shortage for the Volt

August 13th, 2008 | Posted in: marketing

The publicity surrounding yesterday’s release of our waiting list data has been outstanding.

I would like to give special thanks to reporters Sharon Terlap and John Stoll of the Wall Street Journal as well as Kevin Krolicki of Reuters who were interested enough in the story of us more than 33,000 Volt enthusiasts to interview me and publish these terrific articles, which are syndicated far and wide:

1. Dow Jones Wire
2. Reuters

All this publicity has been noticed by GM, and in fact the Reuter’s piece included a reaction from them. Quoting a GM spokesman, "the automaker expected an initial shortage for the Volt, similar to the shortages for other hot-selling recent models."

E-Flex spokesperson David Darovitz went on to say, "I don’t know if there is any other vehicle or any other technology that has generated this kind of interest because of the state of the market and gas prices. We know the demand is going to be there."

Our mission continues.

Popularity: 2% [?]

(6 votes, average: 4.83 out of 5)

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Posted by: Lyle

117 Responses to “GM Expects an Initial Shortage for the Volt”

ghost Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:15 am

Well! Let’s get going! And at an affordable price!

[Reply]
Brad G Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:15 am

The word is getting out! Go Volt!

[Reply]
Rashiid Amul Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:18 am

GM owes you a lot, Lyle.
A few years ago, you weren’t even on the map.
Look at you now. Keep it going. You are doing a great job for GM and a great service for your country. Now let’s get off of oil.

[Reply]
Rashiid Amul Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:20 am

As far as “GM Expecting an Initial Shortage for the Volt”.
I have one word for that………Duh!

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Jean-Charles Jacquemin Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:21 am

Raschiid, you said it, I have nothing else to add.

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Brad G Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:28 am

Since first generation Volts are going to California and D.C./New York, I expect to get my Volt by the third generation after the price has come down and production is catching up to demand.

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capricorn Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:29 am

If GM is expecting such a huge demand for the Volt, then why are they planning to build it at only one plant? Why not re-tool a couple of those 4 truck plants they plan to close?

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Cire Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:34 am

Really? I had no idea..

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Jeff Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:36 am

Another waiting list exists for PHEVs…and the folks on the list are getting them now. The first link contains the customer experience of one new owner.

http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-modifications/52157-review-hymotion-battery-plug-prius.html

http://www.a123systems.com/hymotion/

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Jeff Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:45 am

Nice…

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BillR Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:56 am

I’m really starting to wonder, who is the bigger celebrity, Obama or Lyle?

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Jim I Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:56 am

Great Work Lyle!!!

I am sure that GM is listening to you, and is keeping an eye on what is being said here. That can only help in getting us the car we need and want.

capricorn #7: I think there are two reasons that production for the first year will be kept low:

1. They do not want to have a massive recall of 100,000 units if there is an unforseen problem that needs to be corrected. Once they get cars on the road, the “real world testing” will shake out those bugs. To use computer world jargon, this makes the buyers of the Gen-1 Volt beta testers. And 10,000 units kept in a few areas around the country will be much easier to track and maintain. There is a LOT of new technology, both hardware and software in this design. I don’t think this is realy as big a problem as GM thinks it is, but I can understand why they are being cautious. This E-REV design HAS to be a winner from day one, both in the press and in the perception on the public. Any real problems and GM would get killed in the car magazines…..

Having said that:

2. I think that the real problem with a massive rollout of vehicles for the launch is that there quite simply will not be enough battery packs available for the 2010-2011 timeframe. They are still obviously working out the kinks in the design of the packs, and unless there is some super secret project going on somewhere, large scale automated assembly of these batteries just is not ready.

So if you add a concern about making sure all the systems are working as designed, and a shortage of the battery packs, that is why you are only going to see 10,000 units produced, when there is a demand for at least a million……

But I would not have a problem being an owner of any of the vehicles from the initial run. I truly belive that the GM Volt Team is going to get this one right!!!

JMHO

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Ron Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:14 am

This could be the first car in history that people buy and resell for profit like the oil speculators are doing today.

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coach Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:18 am

Lyle , have the folks at GM offered you the VP For Sales and Marketing yet ?

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RobC Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:21 am

3:
“A few years ago, you weren’t even on the map.”

I agree with everything you said except for the above. The fact is Lyle is a brain doctor (excuse me for not getting the title right because I found about 5 when googling). I’m pretty sure the guy was already on the map.

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Spin Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:27 am

I just don’t think the demand will be there at $45,000. When the Volt becomes available, there will be other choices on the market, or on the near horizon.

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Statik Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:27 am

#7 Capricorn

I’d like to echo Jim I on point #2.

“They are still obviously working out the kinks in the design of the packs, and unless there is some super secret project going on somewhere, large scale automated assembly of these batteries just is not ready”

I would take it further and suggest it is more than kinks, as they were supposed to have the supplier chosen months ago, and are at least 3-6 months behind the intial plan right now…but essentially we are on the same page.

Lithium battery packs aren’t exactly like going to Wal-Mart and picking up the econo ‘box’ of 200AA for $10. It is a slow process to develop a increasing supply of them, and there are a good number of not only logistical hurdles, but quality issues to tackle along the way as well.

GM knows that one all too well, and if you know the backstory on A123 as well, they were born out of HIDEOUS battery manufacturing failure. (It is actually a pretty interesting read if your into that sort of thing I’m feeling lazy today, so I’m not digging up a link…go google it, lol)

I think if GM had a battery maker chosen and they (the battery maker) were indeed ramping up to hit a summer 2010 production deadline (for the batteries), we would see alot more action at the ‘car plant level’ right now.

As someone told me here, “I want to see bulldozers in the ground” before I believe anything they say.

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jabroni Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:33 am

That’s maddening that GM is predicting a shortage. For pity’s sake, just ramp up production and let’s go!

A shortage means that dealers may be inclined to raise the price even more and take advantage of us early adopters…ugh.

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o.jeff@Gmail.com Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:41 am

I think Lyle deserves at least a ride in a Mali-Volt mule in exchange for all this publicity he has generated for GM!

It will be interesting to watch how consumer preferences change now that gasoline prices are falling quickly rather than rising.

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Rashiid Amul Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:46 am

RobC #14,

I am well aware of Dr. Dennis’ very important day job. I have been here long enough.
What I meant, and what I should have said more clearly was:
“A few years ago, you weren’t even on the map……in GM’s eyes”
I thought that was inferred by my first sentence. I guess I was wrong.

No offense to you Lyle, if that was misunderstood.

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Frogster Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:51 am

The Reuters story reports that GM has retooled the look of the vehicle significantly since January 2007. I’m not liking the sound of that. I love the way the car looks now and it is a big reason why I’d like to buy the car when it’s available.

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Eric C. Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:54 am

Lyle,

Can you add a link on the site somewhere to the Volt Wait List Data that’s not buried in that 33,000 wait list story? Maybe off the “Wait List” page?

If there’s already somewhere and I missed it, I apologize.

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Eco Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:55 am

I still think Volt should be offering a buy-back program for GM cars sold between now and reasonable availability.

GM claims they make a great product today. They think it will be years before they can provide a Volt in reasonable numbers.

Buy a GM now, pay a 1,000 dollar option to turn it in between 15 and 20K miles for a sliding percentage of the purchase price, and get a Volt at 1,000 below sticker price.

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Texas Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:05 am

Next is The Tonight Show!

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Dave B Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:05 am

Way to go Lyle,

I think you’ll hit your personal goal of 100,000 by the time the Volt hits market. I seem to remember seeing that quote somewhere. By the way, I’m curious what everyone’s number is:

I’m 79.

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lh_newbie Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:08 am

“GM buy back program”
“Ramp up production”
“Lower than $45000″

Seriously? GM has stated they aren’t going to be making money on this first generation, so they really have no vested interest in ramping up production (read:increasing their exposure to the risk of a massive recall) or offering a buy back program. Have you ever seen a buy back program on a product in which demand is higher than supply? Econ 101. They are methodically going to get these first 10K cars out, make modifications as necessary, turn up production some in 2011, then negotiate better costs by 2012 so they can actually turn a profit when they ramp up production past 100K/year.

Even if GM sets a price of $40-45K on Volt, expect street prices to be $3-5K higher due to the shortage of supply.

Brian

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Steve33 Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:15 am

Kudos Lyle for your efforts to raise EV awareness in general and specifically the Volt program. Kudos to GM as well for recognizing the importance of what you are doing and providing the access which has enabled your site with inside information. Wasn’t long ago when this kind of access on a new project would have been unthinkable at GM.

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Gary Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:20 am

Brian, that worries me. Taking an already pricey vehicle and slapping a markup due to shortage and it’s going to price it even further out of reach of many (myself included).

If dealers are greedy enough they may even cause sales to not meet expectations as many consumer will just end up waiting a year or two for ramp up. This could result in the press slamming it for poor sales. Personally I would like to see GM hold them to MSRP or lower but I don’t know if they legally can without being slapped for price fixing.

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GM Volt Fan Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:36 am

I bet the “Volt Nation army” will be about 100,000 or so by late 2010 when the car arrives in showrooms. I’m sure GM will have a big advertising blitz going by then. People might be protesting GM because they aren’t building enough of them … especially if gas prices get even more crazy.

[Reply]
Mary Ann Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:42 am

Hi Lyle,
In 1910 - Thomas Edison had two electric cars made. In order to prove that they really did work - he had a road race - that started in Manhattan. The two cars took different auto routes up through New England - and then met up at the entrance to the Mount Washington Resort and Hotel in Bretton Woods, NH. It was a great success!

This hotel and resort are still here (in fact they have just undergone a massive restoration) So the drive where those two electric cars met up in 1910 is still here (waiting for two American made electric cars to come again!)
If GM really starts shipping these cars in 2010 - it will on the 100th anniversary of a brilliant American inventor doing the same thing!

It would be great publicity for GM to do this on the anniversary of this.
I have the article from the New York Times about the electric car road race of 1910 - and would be happy to send it to anyone who wants it.

[Reply]
Dave Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:45 am

Forgive my ignorance but I get the impression they are going to change the body style significantly. If this is the case I would not be interested in purchasing one. Too many times these manufacturers pull you into their “concept” car, (which btw, I think the Volt is beautiful!) just to change it and make it look nothing like the car you fell in love with at the auto show. This really pulls my chain if you know what I mean. The Volt as seen at the auto show is just AWESOME in every way and to go and change that look to something else just makes me believe GM will fail once again.

Also, somebody please explain to me how a huge company like GM can NOT produce a car that goes over 40 miles per charge but yet you have a little hole in the wall company called Tesla that can and yes, while it is a bit more expensive they promise a sedan in the next year or two. I would think that since it runs on pure electricity and not aided by a GAS burning motor it would be cheaper to run then the Volt thus payback in the purchase price would happen sooner.

Dave

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Jackson Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:47 am

Mary Ann (#30):

Let’s hope the follow-up to 2010 works out better than it did following 1910.

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Jackson Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:51 am

Dave (#31):

Some modification of the show car is inevitable, even desirable. Those folded glass side-windows were ridiculous. We do need to fear the possibility of GM blanding it to death … like they’ve done to most every make in their line-up.

The differences between GM and hole-in-the-wall Tesla? Too numerous to mention, but highlights would have to include unit cost (astronomical) and volume (as in the lack thereof, in the case of Tesla). There are probably more Mali-mules right now than there are Teslas on the road. Still, if Bob Lutz hadn’t asked that very question, there might not be a Volt project at all; whatever becomes of it.

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Jay Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:56 am

GM had better get with it because the Holy Grail has been found for renewable energy. Check out the boys at MIT. If this is all true then oil will be $1.00 a barrel or less in ten years and the Earth will be a very green planet.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/oxygen-0731.html

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Aspherical Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:10 am

Wow. Many thanks to Lyle for your work and efforts!

#30 Mary Ann

That is a great story! That will be a great television commercial to announce the production Volt to the public (to GM: nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more….)

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Me Here Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:14 am

Off topic, but it occurs to me that Toy, should offer naked Priuses (those without batteries) so that people could add in their own LiON plug in conversions.

This would be a huge advance in time, and promotion.

I wonder what the conversion companies currently do with the useless nimh batteries they take out??

In this case Toy could sell a shell at a premium, put more hybrid vehciles on the street and save the waste of these ‘uneeded’ nimh sets. The owner would save b/c the total cost would be cheaper (not buying the nimh).

Toy won’t b/c they want to control the entire unit of course, and warranty issues, but they should.

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GM Volt Fan Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:17 am

I hope by 2014 or so, you will be able to go a “Fuel Depot” or “Wal Mart Fuel Center” and fill up your Volt range extender tank with the latest and greatest biofuels. You could choose a liquid fuel for your Volt like you choose a box of cereal at the grocery store. Some of the new liquid fuels that are being developed look pretty good.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/4277305.html

The people working at Synthetic Genomics on “fourth generation fuels” are uber-geniuses. They are the folks who decoded the DNA in the “human genome project” a few years ago. If the researchers can scale it waaay up and make their fuel fairly inexpensive, it could REALLY freak out Big Oil and the OPEC oil countries.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/blogs/science_news/4275738.html

Since Volt owners will be able to drive under 40 miles per day on electricity, they’ll have more freedom to try other liquid fuels for the range extender. If these new (NON-food feedstock) biofuels will work with the Volt’s range extender, why NOT try them out? The fuel in the range extender might last 6 months for a lot of people.

Who knows, Volt owners might be able to buy 2 gallon jugs of whatever liquid fuel they want at Wal Marts or Home Depots if that store doesn’t have pumps for it. They already sell propane at Home Depot you know. That will be great when there is CHOICE about what liquid fuel you use for your car. If people want to buy a “designer fuel” for their range extender, then let them. The customer will decide. If one fuel emerges as a very good one, then that fuel will go into more and more gas pumps along interstates, etc. People could use their GPS navigation systems to locate pumps for whatever fuel they want.

If you want to help the environment out the most, you could buy the fuel you want that does this best. If the fuel is more expensive that’s fine. At least the person has a choice. The people that want to get more energy independence for America and not make oil sheiks in the Middle East even richer so they can help out their terrorist buddies, then they can buy a fuel made right here in the USA. People will have the choice to “Buy American” when it comes to fuels if they want to. Maybe GM will add technology to their range extender engines so they can handle almost ANY kind of liquid fuel. Like this “omnivorous engine” being developed at Argonne Labs:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/07/argonnes-omnivo.html

[Reply]
omegaman66 Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:17 am

To Dave: “somebody please explain to me how a huge company like GM”

That is why… huge company… lots of read tape… overhead eating them up from years of glut.

And Tesla isn’t doing it cheaper than GM anyway… at least not yet… but I bet toyota will end up doing it cheaper.

[Reply]
Mike-o-Matic Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:19 am

@11 BillR:
>>I’m really starting to wonder, who is the bigger celebrity, Obama or Lyle?

I don’t know much about celebrity, but I DO know which one I like better, and trust more. That’s for sure.

[Reply]
Jerome Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:26 am

#13, Volt wouldnt be the first car in history to resale for more than price paid….that very thing happened with first year Miatas…heck, even in the 2nd year of production (when I bought mine) I had to buy it off the boat not off the lot.

And of course, kudos to Lyle. What really amazes me about this site is how Lyle manages to have at least one new article every day. Hopefully this recent notoriety will drive our list membership through the roof to 100,000 and beyond!

[Reply]
Jason M. Hendler Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:29 am

Given that there are 33,000 qualified leads to buy a Chevy Volt, but only 10,000 are expected to be built, GM should sell the Volt for at least the cost of its production in its first year, if not more. The cost to produce the 2nd year Volt should be much cheaper, if they still intend to sell 60,000 of them.

[Reply]
Jim I Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:30 am

Statik #17:

I still think it is kinks and not a major problem with the battery pack. I would like to think that they are working to try to squeeze every last bit of power from the pack design. They still have about two years before they really need the first deliverable packs, so they have some time left. And 10K units is for the first model year, so they do not need them all for the initial rollout date. So IMHO, this should still be doable

Since I am not in manufacturing, I do not know how long it takes to set up a car assembly line, but I would assume that GM would have that information, and be able to do it pretty quickly, since they will be using an existing plant, and not having to start from the ground up.

And one other item: I gave you the rights to “Show Me The Bulldozers!”, not the line you used….. Since you are such a stickler for details, I just wanted to bring this to your attention!

[Reply]
NZDavid Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:32 am

Mary Ann

Great story. I like the thought of recreating it with Volts as well. hehe.

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Me Here Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:35 am

PS does anyone know if someone has been able to pull out the batteries and synergy components on a Prius and see what the MPG is without the hybrid system?

I always thought Toy should sell a non-hybrid version of the Prius (to scale up and spread costs). It would be a good seller even without synergy.

[Reply]
Lee Harvey Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:35 am

The Dealer markup on the Volt will be HUGE. GM counts a sale when it is delivered to dealer, not when purchased by a sucker (i mean customer). Dealer will charge what the market will bare. I predict $10k-$20k markup above sticker which sounds very reasonable. Most of you clowns on this site will never own one that is for sure. If you really want a Volt I suggest you start visiting your local Chevy Dealer and build a strong relationship so you might have a chance at buying one in the first two years, otherwise the closest any of you will get to a Volt is watching one kick up road grim in your face as it pulls away from the gas-powered car your still sitting in. LOL

[Reply]
jef Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:40 am

Does anyone know if they are going SELL the cars, or if they will just LEASE them?

I would expect a lease-only release to flop after the EV-1, but I noticed the initial release of the electric Mini is lease only.

[Reply]
Canuck Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:44 am

I hope my Canadian address doesn’t affect my ability to get the 88th Volt off the production line!

Thanks for all the great work Lyle

[Reply]
Jim I Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:45 am

omegaman66 #37:

There is one small flaw in your argument:

Since Toyota is now larger than GM, shouldn’t they be considered the “lumbering giant”?

So how will they be so nimble and be able to “do it cheaper”? Material costs will be about the same everywhere. And if you use the “wages and benefits are so much higher at GM” argument, then no one should be angry at GM for trying to cut their expenses to get in line with Toyota, right?

It does get more complicated, the more you look at it……..

[Reply]
mikeinatl. Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:53 am

#30 Mary Anne

GREAT idea for a 100th anniversary “Edison road race” to roll out the Volt!
Done properly people would line the streets from Manhattan to New Hampshire. And people from coast to coast would follow it.

Start on the “Today” show or “Good Morning America” with four Volts, all different colors, each conspicuously charging the VOLT’s batteries in front of the crowd.

Using celebrities as driver teams, they unplug and off they go. Several planned stops for more PR in cites along the way. “Entertainment Tonight” or some such show should cover the evening events live. Of course they charge up when they stop, but make it well known that they can go 400 miles or so without charging at 50 mpg.

They get to their destination in NH and cross the finish line with the TV crews there waiting, where they do the math and show how much the trip cost and the MPG.

And of course, beforehand they announce all this with a raffle of all the Volts to be used in the “race”. Everyone watching would also have a chance to win one of the cars.
The winners of the cars are announced on live TV at the end of the “race”.

This is a story about a major change in how we power our nations cars, not just a product roll out. It’s a NEWS STORY, not just a new car. It should not be hard to get coverage by major media.

I would hope that GM has someone assigned to read all these threads and take note of all the ideas of the “Volt Nation”.

Many are engineering concepts beyond my scope of understanding. Some are marketing ideas like Mary Ann’s and some are just common sense. But I would hope GM is tapping this resource daily.

And if they are, that could be another part of the Volt marketing story. “We listened to our fans’ ideas closely for two years as we designed this car. Some of those great ideas wound up in the Volt.”

[Reply]
Sleeping Giant Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:57 am

I don’t think Toyota is going to sit back and watch GM grab any significant EV marketshare without a strong response. Toyota will rise up and bitch slap GM like it has been doing for a long time. GM is no match for Toyota excellence. This will play out similar to the way Russia responded to Georgia when it got out of line. GM is in for a rough time. Be careful when you awaken the sleeping giant. Have a nice day GM fanboys.

[Reply]
Jeff M Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:00 am

E-Flex spokesperson David Darovitz says… “…. generated this kind of interest because of the state of the market and gas prices”

Let’s just hope that interest does not die if the economy has rebounded and gas prices are “comfortably below” $3/gallon by the time the Volt is goes into production…. at least 2 years away is a long time (of course we could be in another war by then that disrupts supplies making the $4 gas we had look cheap).

My next next car I hope is a BEV (hybrid or not) either way, my current car turns 9 this year though only has 75k miles, so I hope it lasts 3 or more years so I don’t have to be an early adopter.

[Reply]
Ray Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:08 am

I’m with Canuck # 46… I will take unit # 973 (black with all the options) 40 K ok..
Just get here !!!

As I always upgrade cars every 3 - 4 years because of the high milage I travel… the Volt might just be a “keeper”

[Reply]
Jeff M Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:09 am

Ron “first car in history that people buy and resell for profit”….

Don’t think so. I think folks are doing that this year with the Prius… but even before that I remember the Dodge Prowler when I was looking for a new car in 1999… some dealerships were marking it up by $10k over MSRP.

In any case, this could be the 1st “mass produced” BEV (hybrid) that an individual trys to cash in on….

[Reply]
Carlos Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:21 am

Is there a way to update info on the wait list.
I would buy volt around 32K if the 2010 model is delivered late 2009
Get the cars out to the public. Target sales folks with car allowance and mileage. Those folks get paid on Miles driven to offset Gas costs and vehicle maintenance. Simple market research.

[Reply]
Cire Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:25 am

#44 Lee Harvey

I found that quite funny and probably true, haha.

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NV Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:26 am

There are two ways to create a shortage - great demand or short supply

At the talked about sticker price - volt does not make any economic sense now. Let us assume 100K miles and compare to Prius which gives 40 mpg. Thats a total of some $12.5K in running cost @ $5 a gallon of gas. Lets assume zero cost for volt (i.e. I use it only in electric mode and charge it free of cost) - giving us a difference of $12.5K in long term operating cost. So, that is the MAX Volt can charge extra over Prius.

I hope they start charging the true cost of gas - with a revenue nuetral carbon tax. Then Volt would make economic sense.

[Reply]
Kevin Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:27 am

Sleeping Giant @ 49

Perhaps GM is the sleeping giant as they were the automotive leader for years before Toyota took over as of recent. And a while ago Toyota was sitting back claiming Li-Ion technology was not ready. They built a big ass truck instead. GM has already grabbed significant E-REV market interest. The initial quality has switched in favor of GM once again and I believe we will see strong competition between two great automotive companies with two different advantages, but to say Toyota will bitch slap GM is just ignorant.

[Reply]
DonC Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:30 am

#40 Jason Hendler - “Given that there are 33,000 qualified leads to buy a Chevy Volt, but only 10,000 are expected to be built, GM should sell the Volt for at least the cost of its production in its first year, if not more.”

Funny how fans on this site miss this important point. One day price is the big issue; the next day supply is the big issue. GM should let price do what it’s best at doing — allocate supply. If they don’t, all that will happen is that the dealers will soak up the extra surplus and Volt owners will feel that they’ve been ripped off because they’ve paid over sticker.

Some excess demand is of course a good thing since it creates buzz — Broadway theatre owneres have known this for years — so a slightly lower price than market clearing would be a good idea. GM can always drop the price in later years, in which case later buyers will feel they’ve gotten a good deal.

FWIW cost of production is irrelevant. First it’s fuzzy because most of the costs are fixed and apportioning fixed costs is dicey. You can’t apportion all the fixed costs of the factory to the first car off the line, can you? (That’s why all the comments coming out of GM about costs are specious). Second, if you can only produce 10,000, and the market clearing price is $40,000, it matters not whether your production cost for those first 10,000 is $5,000 or $45,000. You need to sell them all at a price which will generate the most publicity and build the brand and demand for the real production years to come.

[Reply]
Statik Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:31 am

#41 Jim I

And one other item: I gave you the rights to “Show Me The Bulldozers!”, not the line you used….. Since you are such a stickler for details, I just wanted to bring this to your attention!

Hehe, I know my friend, I know.

“Since I am not in manufacturing, I do not know how long it takes to set up a car assembly line, but I would assume that GM would have that information, and be able to do it pretty quickly, since they will be using an existing plant, and not having to start from the ground up.”

I live close to the Oshawa plant (relatively speaking) and have been privvy to watching it be implemented.

The conversion has been slow (to say the least) and plagued with problems, more like utter choas, even now only the fractional ‘test line’ is functional. The plant conversion problem has very publicly slowed the roll out of the Camaro and even moreso the new convertible deadlineswhich have been totally obliviated.

Just as a recap of GM’s other ‘flex-line game changer’ platform. When it first rolled out at the show, it was hinted for 1Q 2008 for producton models, then moved mid 2008, then late 2008 as a 2009.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2006/08/21/camaro-oshawa.html

Then it was switched to early 2009. Then a few months ago it got pushed back to later spring 2009. I believe internally they are trying to get the line rolling on Feb 16th or 19th…I can’t remember, one or the other.

This Camaro platform, while still complex, does not have the added (and huge) question mark of allowing for battery production or actually builting a two propulsion system car.

So to recap, Camaro concept debuted in Jan 2006, announced ‘officially’ in production/funded in August of 2006…actual cars getting to customers 3 years later.

By that timeline, Volt concept debuted in Jan 2007, GM announced it ‘officially’ in production/funded June 3, 2008.

If we use Camaro as a ‘best case,’ to get cars to customers, because they are both flexlines, and the Volt is much MORE complicated…3 years is probably best, best case, which would be summer of 2011.

Like I mentioned before to Tag, I think only Hitler’s Volkswagen in WWII has gotten vehicles out from scratch in 2 years or less.

[Reply]
Statik Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:38 am

Lyle and the site got another mention on the “internets” today…and the ‘loyal fans’ here at GM-Volt.com get a little more salt stamped into the wounds as well:

“GM may have a several thousand disappointed Voltophiles on their hands before this sad saga plays out. Automotive News [sub] reports Dennis Lyle from GM-Volt.com claims over 33k people have joined his unofficial waiting list, expressing a desire buy the electrowundercar when it’s “released in 2010.”

Oh dear. First of all, a 2010 release date is a reality only to those who live in GM Car Czar Bob Lutz’ fantasy world. Next, GM’s already said they’ll build fewer than 40k Volts per year for the first five years, and many of those will be exported. And you know those left stateside will go to GM execs, politicians, celebrities and celebrity politicians.

Finally, Lyle’s prospective buyers indicated they were willing to pay an average of $31,261 for a vehicle that GM’s already said will top the $40k mark (and will lose money on, even at that price). You have to wonder how long the people on this list will put up with GM’s gratuitous promises (being charitable) before they finally give up”

(Thats all the text…rest is subscription, but here is the link anywhoo)

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/volt-birth-watch-73-please-wait-for-the-next-available-car/

[Reply]
Tony Gray Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:44 am

The wife’s SmartBuy (AKA lease) on her Saturn XR expires in March 2011. They better as all heck be ready to sell me a new Volt, at a reasonable cost, in my home market (south Central PA) or they will rue that day!

Rue. Sounds like something Stewie Griffin would say.

[Reply]
Ryan P Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:58 am

Mali-Volt ? In Europe they call it the Mal-volt-ibu.

[Reply]
noel park Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:58 am

Speaking with Ms. Terlap reminded me once again that this is about a lot more than the Volt. It’s like a Harvard Business School case about the survival or demise of a great industrial corporation. Or maybe it’s a metaphor for the whole future of the USA.

Or maybe it’s more like a soap opera - “As The GM Turns”. Or maybe it’s “As GM-Volt.com Turns”, LOL.

What will GM do to compete in the car market now that the truck/SUV market has turned south? Will the Volt and other advanced car designs and technologies arrive in time to stave off Chapter 11? Will GM run out of cash? Will the Board support Mr. Wagoner as the cash hoard dwindles? Who will buy cars anyway, when all of the decent paying jobs have finally been “offshored”? And/or had the wages/benefits reduced to the lowest common denominator of “globalization”?

Tune in tommorow for the next exciting episode!

[Reply]
N Riley Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:06 am

Great work, Lyle. Keep up the good work. Looking forward to seeing more good stories about the Chevy Volt.

[Reply]
N Riley Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:10 am

#4 Rashiid Amul

“As far as “GM Expecting an Initial Shortage for the Volt”.
I have one word for that………Duh!”

Well, what does GM expect when they are only going to produce maybe 10k the first year with not many more the second year. They could make 100k the first year and they would be snapped up fast.

GM needs to re-think their production numbers for the first year or two.

[Reply]
Brian M Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:38 am

Forgive me if this has been asked and answered, but how do I find out what place I am on the waiting list? (others have been saying “I am #79, I am #548, etc.)

[Reply]
Rashiid Amul Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:53 am

Brian M # 65.

Go to this link and enter the email address that you signed up with.

“http://gm-volt.com/join-us/”

Remove the quotes from the link above.

[Reply]
Mary Ann Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:02 pm

By the way, the date on article about the 1910 road race from Manhattan to Mount Washington Resort Bretton Woods, NH - is the October 16th, 1910 New York Times.

I just think it would be such an honour to Edison if GM can pull this off.

[Reply]
Rashiid Amul Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:07 pm

Noel Park

I just read a very interesting article about your fight against pollution at the China Shipping terminal. You certainly are a man of conviction, my friend.

[Reply]
srschrier Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:48 pm

In the past few months GM has been quitely negotiating with Ford in Detroit about sharing the Volt’s technology. Ford has announced they are converting their former Detroit area truck assembly lines to car production. If the GM-Ford talks succeed the mass production of the Volt might happen much sooner than expected and perhaps even reduce the cost of the car.

http://www.wxyz.com/mediacenter/local.aspx?videoId=13887@wxyz.dayport.com&navCatId=16

[Reply]
Murray Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:01 pm

#67 Mary Ann

That is a cool idea for a promo….hopefully GM can actually have a production Volt by then.

#59 Statik

Just wanted to thank you again for helping to set expectations with your comments and posts…setting expectations is something that I have found very helpful in my business and even in my personal life…if you do it well — you will gain respect.

I’m just under #18k on the wait list but I have my own personal ‘target’ set to late 2012, early 2013 before I even get a sniff at this car.

[Reply]
N Riley Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:09 pm

#70 Murray

Although I am #4726 on the list, I feel as though I have been on it for years. I suspect my Volt will be about the 50,000th one produced before I will be able to purchase one. I never expected to get one in the first batch of 10,000. It would be nice, though. Good luck with your Volt plans.

[Reply]
Jackson Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:11 pm

We talk a lot about renewable energy for electric cars on this site. A huge new source of renewable energy may turn out to be … roads.

http://www.technologynewsdaily.com/node/10159

Why did it take so long to think of this? (I know, I know, I’m mostly mad that I didn’t think of it either).

For those who refuse to click links: the heat that scorches your feet when you walk barefoot over a sun-heated blacktop can be collected and used directly, or converted to electricity.

In unrelated heat-to-electricty news, there’s this:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080810214010.htm

[Reply]
Noah Nehm Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:19 pm

I think it is an extremely smart move to limit the production the first year, for the following reasons:
1A) They’re probably going to lose money at first. Smaller production means smaller loss.
1B) Less supply, higher prices, less loss per car.
2) They will be working out the bugs on the fly as people drive the car. That keeps the engineers from being overwhelmed by the unexpected issues that are certain to come down the pike.
3) A limited supply creates a positive buzz; having the cars sitting idle in the car lots produces a negative buzz.
4) It provides a means for the suppliers to ramp up their production and negotiate supply and prices for raw materials in a more reasonable fashion.

[Reply]
Jackson Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:33 pm

… and speaking of turning things into electricity, where’s NucBoy? This ought to be right up his alley:

http://technology.newscientist.com/channel/tech/dn13545-nanomaterial-turns-radiation-directly-into-electricity.html

“The materials [being tested] would extract up to 20 times more power from radioactive decay than thermoelectric materials …

… tiles of carbon nanotubes packed with gold and surrounded by lithium hydride… Radioactive particles that slam into the gold push out a shower of high-energy electrons. They pass through carbon nanotubes and pass into the lithium hydride from where they move into electrodes, allowing current to flow.”

Bear with me for a moment.

It’s possible that this nano material could eventually lead to a kind of artificial lithium-containing crystal which acts as nuclear-pumped diode for making direct current.

…diode…lithium…crystal… … Diolithium Crystals?!

“…it will be at least a decade before final designs of the radiation-to-electricity concept are built.”

… so, at this rate, it could power the Volt gen 3 or 4. A constant source of current would suffice to fully recharge the (then hopefully 100+ mile AER) battery in 24 hours; requiring a plug in only when more miles will be driven in a day). But then, we could tell people that our cars are powered by Diolithium Crystals.

[Reply]
Kaido Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:44 pm

Why not auction the first Volts?

In market economies, when something is in short supply, then the price usually goes up. Take the example of gasoline - the price goes up because the supply is shorter than the demand.

GM should aim for making as many Volts as possible of course but as the production is still ramping up while such mega-demand for this product exists then the additional profits might not hurt reaching the the main goal.

Personally I’m not going to contend for the first Volts but you probably are!

[Reply]
scott Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:49 pm

#74 Jackson:
Rock on! Warp drive for Volt. I can’t wait!

[Reply]
noel park Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:54 pm

#68 Rashiid Amul:

Thank you. While I have to say that the credit for the successful lawsuit should go about 95% to the Natural Resources Defense Council and 5% to the local citizens, still it was like being put through a wringer. Plus, while the lawsuit gave the ports a bit of a time out, and caused a lot more money to be spent to try to contain the problem, the air pollution continues to get worse, just at a slower rate.

If you see, or have seen, me go off about air pollution in general and diesel exhaust in particular, now you have an idea why. A local MD christened San Pedro and Wilmington, CA “The Diesel Death Zone” because of the horrifying risk of cancer and 30 or 40 other health “end points” in those communities.

The USC Keck Medical School has done extensive research on these issues. There is a generally accepted factor to estimate cancer risk based upon the level of diesel particulate in the air. They drove around the LA freeways in an electric car (LOL) and took air samples. They determined that the cancer risk behind a typical diesel truck is 17 times that found in normal car traffic. I used to draft behind semis to pick up a couple of mpg when towing my car trailer. Not any more! Something to think about as you travel the highways.

And railroad locomotives and ships are even worse.

Just one more huge potential advantage of E-Flex technology.

[Reply]
Murray Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:56 pm

Even though I’m just south of #18,000 on the ‘wait / fan / votlophobe’ list…I have been dreaming about powering my electric car using solar panels on my garage/carport roof for years.

I took my first steps last summer by installing a parking pad (2 car, w/ footers) and small driveway in my backyard. This got me off-the-street parking….something that is not available to most of my small city neighbors. Originally, I had planned on just a simple carport (roof on posts) to get the cars “out of the weather” but I have since discarded that for a few reasons.
1) something else came up (financially) - doesnt it always
2) living in northwestern PA will require a full garage for my electric car
In a perfect world I’ll have the solar panels installed on my full garage roof prior to 2012-2013 and already be ‘hooked to the grid’ and ready for my electric car — which of course, I hope to be the Volt (again in a perfect world).

I also have a longer commute than the normal person, just over 100mi per day….so I also dream about a “charge while you work” situation so I can utilize this technology in both directions.

The silver lining in the otherwise dark cloud — I’ve got 4 or 5 years to work with !!

(wow — 4 or 5 years …. ok now I’m depressed again)

[Reply]
Murray Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:58 pm

Jackson…cool links today….love that stuff!

[Reply]
Ryan P Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 2:25 pm

#74 Jackson

“Make it so” - Picard

[Reply]
Jackson Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 2:39 pm

Thanks, guys!

… of course, getting stored thermal energy from asphalt highways could be just a tad more likely…

[Reply]
robb Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

Lee Harvey #44:

Exactly right. Many people on this site will not be able to afford this car. I want a diamond encrusted volt with an AER of 200 miles and for no more than 20K!!! Let the gov’t subsidies begin with money they don’t have killing our economy even quicker. WAKE UP! This car is not for the masses yet, it’s a car geek’s wet dream for people who have money. NOT YOU! The Tesla is a perfect example it has what people want but at a price most can’t afford. 2010 you’ll have a volt…LOL…try 2030 for a one we can afford. You people sound like those people who couldn’t afford a home and got sub-prime rates. Look at them now. Buy what you NEED and can AFFORD. Not what you want. America needs to stop being consumer sheep for a while and adopt some isolationism to recover this economy.

[Reply]
Kevin R Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 2:50 pm

All I know is that those of us who have stayed the course since the first couple of months of 2007 should certainly be given the opportunity to purchase a Volt in 2010. I would be very angry if some schmo who knows nothing about the Volt, walks into a Chevy dealer in late 2010 and buys one because he lives in California, versus those of us who live in the mid-west or elsewhere and we’ve been waiting, discussing, prodding, cajoling for GM to produce this car. Fair is far and we should definitely be given the opportunity to purchase one first. Not celebs, not target areas….us, who have been faithful from the start.

[Reply]
N Riley Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:08 pm

#83 Kevin R

I am sorry to have to tell you this, Kevin R, but you are going to be sadly disappointed. The chance that someone from the mid-west gets one before late 2011 or early to mid 2012 is very remote. GM has already decided to roll them out in California and Florida. Maybe Texas, if they are lucky. New York and DC are possibilities, too. Hey, I live in Mississippi. What do you think my chances are? About the same as yours. But, good luck to you. Maybe your turn will come up sooner rather than later.

Life sure as hell ain’t fair and getting a Volt will be a lot less fair.

[Reply]
Jackson Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:09 pm

GM: If you offer the Volt first in CA, it will be written off by the heartland as another “granola-mobile” for the ‘eco-elite.’ It will evoke even more negative reactions to the fate of the EV-1 inside California.

If you’ve been monitoring this site, you know that the Volt’s potential appeal reaches far beyond the green-conscious.

If you’re limited to specific areas for other reasons (such as preparing dealers for service), you should consider specifically excluding California. To do anything else risks continuing the cliche of the electric car as a low-powered niche vehicle for, shall we say, the ideologically motivated. The Volt is intended to break that mold, is it not?

An early CA-limited release could come back to haunt you when you’re ready to roll-out nationally.

[Reply]
SamH Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:14 pm

In response to the daily never-ending comments on this site (usually off-topic) on the initial high price of this vehicle and how that will keep anyone from ever buying it — yes, when it first hits the showrooms it will be very expensive, no one’s going to argue that. There you go, point conceded.
But, name a new technology product that wasn’t ridiculously priced when it first hit the market. The first year or two only the wealthy will be able to afford it, but over time the price will come down greatly and the number of buyers will go up inversely. No, the world is not going to end before that happens, and oil won’t run out in the next two years.
I can remember when plasma TVs first came out; they were $10,000!! Now you can get a good sized one for under a grand. Remember the price of a large flash drive when they first came out? Hundreds of dollars for a Gig of storage, now I see them beside the candy in Target checkout lines for under $20. If I had time I’d give you hundreds of examples. Just relax and wait for the natural progression.

[Reply]
Forrest Gump Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:41 pm

U.S at risk of losing electric car race according to this Reuters article:

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSN1250677120080812

Say it ain’t so.

[Reply]
fred Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:47 pm

DUH! DUH! DUH!

[Reply]
ALEX RODRIGUEZ Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:57 pm

Obviousely the Volt is the way of the future. GM needs to break from the old ways, shut down a couple of factories that are not making money and retool for the Vold, obviousely they are not going to be able to keep up demand so RAMP UP NOW!!! Take a risk now when they payoff is definitely within sight, a lot more than gas guzzlers. One good idea is to re-alocate funds right now to build a site to actually build the batteries instead of farming them out, that way you can control quantity and quality. DO IT NOW!!! (Remember toyota is on your tail!)

[Reply]
john1701a Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 4:15 pm

43 >> I always thought Toy should sell a non-hybrid version of the Prius (to scale up and spread costs).

They did. It was the Echo. That was what contributed to Prius finally being able to make a profit.

Study the history of the Original & Classic models (1997-2002).

[Reply]
rvd Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 4:20 pm

33k people just do not realize that $45k is a LOT of money.
This waiting list will evaporate once people see the bottom line.

[Reply]
john1701a Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 4:22 pm

55 >> Let us assume 100K miles and compare to Prius which gives 40 mpg.

That wouldn’t be constructive, since most owners get more higher than that. Also, why would you use the older model for comparison in 2011?

My lifetime average at 102,601 miles calculated to 48.0 MPG.

[Reply]
firehawk72 Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 4:41 pm

As long as we are discussing price, lets be fair. Many of you are saying that if the car is much over 30k then you wouldn’t be able to afford it. I am not arguing that point at all. 30k is a lot of money, but with the average price of a new car over 25k…crossing 30k for a new car on the frontier of new technology, it really isn’t. I am pretty much a car Guru as far as knowledge about them is concerned. I subscribe to Road and Track, Car and Driver, and Consumer Reports, as well as others. Many, many cars cost over 30k including some loaded up mainstream cars. Practically every midsize and full size SUVs costs over 30k unless you go bare-bones basic. Back in April, my wife and I leased a Saturn Outlook XR. This is a fairly loaded AWD vehicle with a sticker price of 37k. (Please no lectures about gas mileage-for its size, its gets the best for its class, and I am concerned…that is why I am here) My point, though, is the payment on this vehicle is 498 per month for 36 months 15k miles per year. We average spending around 250-300 per month on gas for this vehicle, especially since gas has been hovering around the $4 mark. From my point of view, we are spending $800 per month just for payment and gas. Many, many vehicles fall into this category as far as price. I have to be general here but most up-scale sedans cross the 30k mark and all but the cheapest mid-size and full size suv’s do as well.

Finally, I can get to the point. A 40k car financed for five years on a buy gives you a payment of little less that 800 per month, but wouldn’t cost much of anything in terms of gas or electric with the Volt. So in terms of price only, I am paying that now, as I would imagine some of the other posters are too. One more thing, remember mine was on a lease, imagine if we had purchased our Outlook, hmmm, I would actually be saving money. Same payment of about 800 per month but virtually no gas payment. Of course these are totally different animals comparing a 4 seat hatchback sedan to an 7-8 seat AWD SUV, but it doesn’t change the prices.

Just thinking out load guys.

Hawk

[Reply]
RickinTenn Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 5:36 pm

The Volt’s gaining momentum. I’m grateful for this site and all of the work that’s gone into it. Although I don’t post often, I’m on this site every day.

[Reply]
TED in Fort Myers Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 5:43 pm

The dollars and cents are there. This will be a vehicle which will lower my costs of operation. Not by much but the biggest factor is: We spend money on an American car and American fuel. We don’t send $3-400.00 dollars per month out of the Country. Every dollar spent here gets spent again and again and again. Any idea what that does to improve our economy?
Take Care,
TED

[Reply]
TED in Fort Myers Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 5:49 pm

I am going to start on my diet soon so I can maximize my all electric range when I get my volt. As determined as I was when I sought out my Insight, (there were only four for sale in Florida when I bought mine) I will get one of the first Volts sold in Florida.
Take Care,
TED

[Reply]
TED in Fort Myers Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 5:55 pm

The Florida Electric Auto Association FLEAA will welcome my electric car at all of their events and I will get to some of them without gas at all and others I will use very little gas. I dream of a day when there will be charging stations on the street like parking meters and a solar charging station at my home.
Take Care,
TED

[Reply]
Gordon Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:01 pm

I can’t wait to cut up my gasoline credit cards!

[Reply]
jefro Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:09 pm

If GM and Ford can make 2 million trucks a year, we ought to be able to get a Volt or two.

[Reply]
DaveP Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:04 pm

#35 Me Here:
Actually, “convert” to plug in is kind of a misnomer. More like “extend” as in they don’t remove any of the original batteries. The current aftermarket plug in extenders for the prius don’t change the operation of the prius at all other than to feed energy from the “plug-in-pack” to the built-in pack to keep the built-in pack charged longer. This enables the prius to use the built-in pack more for propulsion since:
1) it will be full far longer than normal
2) the engine won’t have to run to charge the pack

However, this doesn’t change the operation of the prius much, it still tends to be fairly gasoline-engine centric, even with the plug in pack. This is because the Hybrid Synergy Drive is over-motored and under-batteried (eg, the motors can drive more watts than the battery can put out). Since the after market plug in systems don’t change the programming and can only “top off” the internal pack, not accept regeneration energy from the motors, the Prius doesn’t behave much differently, except it has a lot more total energy available (not power) for the motors and can therefore avoid running the engine to recharge the internal pack.

The “official” plug in prius is claimed by Toyota to have increased electric only mileage AND speed. This makes sense because if the design is no longer “battery starved” then they can allow the electric motors to run at their full capabilites, something not allowed in the current design, even if you have an aftermarket plug in mod.

To me the \Volt seems to have the opposite problem… Namely, it’s going to be “motor-starved”. That always kind of bothers me, but I’ll get over it.

[Reply]
Barry in Timonium Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:39 pm

I find it interesting that no one mentions that it might be advantageous for GM to drag its corporate foot a little on the release schedule. Major Tax breaks and development money will probably become available if our stupid congressmen ever get their act together. These incentives would provide GM money in 2010 and 2011, just in time for the 2012 elections. GM could delay their release schedule to maximize their return on these incentives.
On my simplistic viewing level, there are lots of folks that want to get off of gasoline. Buying a GM, made in the USA car makes a lot of sense, even if the price is unreasonable. I hope GM doesn’t wait, but I don’t have much hope of a 2010 release. “Shortages”?? I don’t think so.

[Reply]
john1701a Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:57 pm

>> …the Prius doesn’t behave much differently…

That is a very, very misleading statement. I strongly suggest you avoid such language in the future, since it could easily be mistaken for greenwashing.

Hopefully what you meant to say was that operating thresholds are not any different… because the behavior itself certainly is. And proving that doesn’t take much. All you have to do is drive down a large elevation change, then observe how the Prius reacts afterward. That surplus of electricity is like a surge of caffeine, the motor provides a surprisingly large portion of the propulsion duties.

As for the “avoid running the engine to recharge” comment, that isn’t how a FULL hybrid works. I suggest studying the PSD (Power Split Device) to see how that situation is quite easily avoided (unlike with ASSIST hybrids). Having a second motor available and so much flexibilty is the key.

[Reply]
Doug Korthof Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:06 pm

A waiting list for an EV that doesn’t exist.

Deja Vu for those who tried to get an EV1.

Of course, the cynic says, ‘once the downside of actually leasing a VOLT are explained to these poor fools, there will probably only be 33 who really really want one’ (g).

After all, that’s what GM did in denigrating the EV1 “waiting list” of over 5,000.

GM has already stated that they won’t make more than a few hundred VOLT through 2014, if any at all, and not to count the “100 mpg” VOLT into their supposedly desperate attempts to meet MPG (”cafe”) standards.

From dispatches:

“…More than 33,000 people have joined an unofficial waiting list
to buy the $40,000 Chevrolet Volt when the battery-powered car is
available, probably in 2010. A New York doctor is assembling the
waiting list through the Web site [ http://GM-Volt.Com ]…”

What they don’t tell you:

1. It’s listed for “December, 2010″ which means to me 2011, not 2010!

2. The 16 kWh (8 kWh useable) battery costs $30,000 alone, so if the RAV4-EV is “too expensive” with its $13,000 28 kWh battery, what about this??

3. The price is not yet known; most likely, the batteries will be leased, so that you won’t be able to take them out and replace them with reasonable and larger batteries; and the whole thing might be leased, just so GM can stop people from improving it.

4. GM-Volt.com has a lot of Google ads on it, and has probably made a lot of money. While it’s honest, it’s also a GM suckup.

5. The VOLT would be, if it became real, done by GM, which means it’s run by what I consider liars, incompetent slobs and nincompoops.

[Reply]
dylan Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:17 pm

why not temperarly stop production of slow selling and use their factorys to pump out volts by the thousands per day . then they will be able to take on the waiting list and the rest of the countrys demand and at first why sell them at an affordabl price lest go $55,000 and make a 15,000 proffit off each one and spend it on more useful fule cell tecnology. (people who want these things will pay therw the nose to have them )

why not make an e-flex escalade thats the e-flex i want

[Reply]
Doug Korthof Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:58 pm

Dylan,
The reason is that the VOLT is budgeted as a Public Relations issue; they don’t plan to make a lot of them, because they don’t think the economics are good.

If GM really planned to build 100,000 VOLT, they would have fought to include the VOLT’s relatively high mpg numbers (perhaps 100 mpg, perhaps 200 mpg) into their requirements. But they specifically denied that the VOLT would be present in enough quantities to make a difference.

That means tiny quantities, perhaps a few hundred at most, if any.

For each 100 mpg VOLT, if that were the number, they would be able to sell about ten (10) 25 mpg gas-guzzlers and still average 35 mpg.

So 100,000 VOLT would allow them to sell 1,000,000 gas-guzzlers, if they were serious, and still make the 35 mpg number for fleet average.

[Reply]
Doug Korthof Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:03 pm

In order to do business in America, EVERY car company from Honda to Chrysler, from MB to Fiat, must be required to SELL $25,000 PLUG-IN SERIAL HYBRIDS or REAL ELECTRIC CARS on the FREE MARKET to ALL COMERS.

If they sell too many, then they should come to the government for relief; but according to them, there’s no demand for EVs.

Instead of relying on GM’s good faith, which there isn’t much faith in, FORCE GM to build the VOLT!

WE HAD PLUG-IN CARS 10 YEARS AGO WITH 140 MILES RANGE ON A CHARGE!

EVEN THE LEAD-ACID EV1 HAD 100 MILES RANGE USING PANASONIC PSB EV-EC 1260 batteries!

So what’s so hard about the VOLT??

Why is GM foot-dragging??

LOL, you know why, GM is the company that KILLED THE ELECTRIC CAR.

DON’T THINK IT CHANGED ITS STRIPES.

[Reply]
kubel Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:26 pm

I dunno, Doug. I think government forcing GM to build the EV1 is a big part of why GM eventually killed it. In order to be truly successful, the production of any vehicle must be fueled by consumer demand, not by artificial pricing and government set laws. That sort of thing doesn’t work well in a free market.

High gas prices are the only thing fueling high demand for the Volt. Sure, there may be a few environmentalists. But sadly, most American’s frankly won’t spend a few thousand dollars extra for clean air. And I’ll admit, I’m one of them.

As much as I hate to say this, we need high gas prices in order to see the electrification of the automobile.

[Reply]
Doug Korthof Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:52 pm

Kubel,

I agree that GM deeply resented being forced to build the EV1; but it had a far greater hostility because the EV1 threatened all the internal constituencies of IC cars as well as dealer profits for repairs and oil changes.

The problem with your argument is the PRICE. If the *only* reason to fight and struggle (that’s what’s going to be required) to buy a VOLT is to save money, then no one will do it. The savings just aren’t there on $5/gallon gas. Saving 2 gallons per day, $300/month, won’t pay for the extra cost of a $40K car.

It makes more sense to buy a 37 mpg Toyota Corolla for $15,000, or even a used 20 mpg Camry, than to spend $40,000+ for a VOLT, IF the decision is based on money alone.

Of course, those who want to live free of oil, or want to finance their solar system will seek to buy a VOLT; but it’s very, very difficult to pay off a $40K car that only gets 40 miles on overnight electric. Basically, you only can save $10 per day, at most.

Being able to drive 120 miles per day on overnight stored electric allows much higher savings, but neither justifies paying the additional $25,000 for the VOLT based on money alone.

We need GM to be FORCED to produce a 100-mile-range EV, with or without a range-extender, and sell it for NO MORE THAN $25,000. If they want the benefit of selling cars in America, they must also produce a plug-in car. If there’s too much demand, then the government should give subsidies.

But the key idea is, GIVE BUYERS A CHOICE. Don’t FORCE everyone to buy an Electric car, but ALLOW everyone to choose whether or not to buy one.

Look at it as a cost of doing business; it’s a national security imperative.

We’ve driven about 600,000 miles in HondaEV, EV1, RangerEV, Rav4-EV, and various conversions since 1997, saving about 30,000 gallons of gas.

At $2/gallon, that’s a savings of $60,000 on the gas alone, which would have paid for TWO EVs plus our rooftop solar system. But they kept taking our EVs away, and crushing them.

It doesn’t matter if the EVs are only used for short trips! It turns out, that’s where you put on the miles.

[Reply]
Don Perkins Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 1:14 am

I wish GM would go 100% American with this car. Tesla Motors has a battery that will power their own cars for a couple of hundred miles or more. True the volt will be heavier and thus require more juice and probably won’t get the mileage, but it is ready now, and it’s not from Germany or another Euro or Asian country.

Please give this some consideration. We can we build jet airplanes that are the envy of the world, but we can’t build the best cars unless we look overseas for help!

[Reply]
kubel Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 1:26 am

The price to break even with a car like the Prius is $27,000 at current gas prices. So unless the Volt is at least that cheap, the masses won’t buy it, I agree. But at the same time, can GM build the car for that cheap?

Let’s just guess on prices here: The EV half of the car (pack, controller, motor, etc..) will cost about $15,000 (GM claims the batteries alone will cost $10,000, but that’s probably a bit of fibbing). At $25,000, that leaves $10,000 for the traditional components. They can barely build an Aveo for that cost in Korea. I doubt they could make a Cobalt-like car for that price here in Michigan. And this isn’t considering the cost of R&D that they have to include in the price of the Volt.

$25,000 would get the volume (masses would buy these, no doubt about it, but at what cost to GM).
$27,000 would be break-even with Prius as far as initial cost plus energy cost (so a lot of people would buy it, but not “Chevy” people, and GM still wouldn’t see a profit).
$30,000 would be bare minimum (GM could sell it to break even maybe, at least that’s my guess).
$35,000 and they could see a profit (but could they really get the volume needed at this price).
$40,000 and they could sell it to the early adopters and rich and famous and make plenty of money in the first year or two (until they switch to volume sales and lower the cost for average Americans).

GM has to drop the price! If they can’t sell it in volume as an affordable Chevy, they need to rebrand it a Cadillac.

[Reply]
THOM Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 7:09 am

Its all speculation.. The smart car is taking over the auto industry as was “predicted” by Mercedes.

The 33000 person “waiting list” are people who said they would be interested…not people that put down payments on the cars. I would be suprised if 20% of the people on the waiting list actually buys one.

So 6600 people on the waiting list buys one, that leave 93,400 for everone else.

[Reply]
john1701a Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 10:36 am

>> The smart car is taking over the auto industry as was “predicted” by Mercedes.

A great example of greenwashing. I sure hope Volt doesn’t attempt the same nonsense.

12,000 vehicles is not a take over by any means. And how does just reduction of size & weight represent a step forward?

Prius is a little larger than Corolla, yet it delivers quite a bit better emissions & efficiency. 181,221 were sold here last year too. That’s genuine progress.

[Reply]
Doug Korthof Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 11:49 am

Kubel,

GM continues to lie about the batteries. Jon Lauckner, for example, claims that the VOLT pack is a third of the EV1 pack by weight. But he’s a liar, because the EV1 lead-acid pack had more than twice the energy that the VOLT will deliver (18 kWh vs. 8 kWh).

Moreover, the 1000-lb. NiMH battery pack in the 1999 version of the EV1 (now almost all crushed) delivered 26 kWh, while the same weight in the Toyota RAV4-EV of the PEVE EV-95 batteries deliver up to 30 kWh.

So ceteris parabus, 400 lbs. of lead-acid would deliver 6 kWh, almost as much at the $20,000 VOLT battery! And Lead-Acid only costs $1,600. So if you only need 40 miles range, why not use the cheapest battery?

But if you want long range, don’t “research lithium”! The NiMH battery is here, now, and 400 lbs. of EV-95 NiMH would deliver 12 kWh, enough to take the VOLT 60 miles in all-electric range.

I know GM suck-ups don’t want to hear these facts; they’d rather believe Lauckner’s lies and distortions.

The fact is, Lithium has not been proven in any EV, except for the $100,000 T-Zero, the $109,000 Tesla, and the $75,000 eBox. And none of those has gone more than 50,000 miles without significant battery degradation.

The big point is AVAILABILITY. NiMH and lead-acid is WELL-PROVEN, is here, now, and is cheaper than Lithium and lasts longer than Lithium. It’s non-toxic, has a scrap value, and won’t explode or catch fire.

If GM were seriouis about the VOLT, it would make it with real batteries, instead of hedging its availablity because Lithium research didn’t pan out yet.

Join the protest, http://TaxPayersAgainstBigOil.com

[Reply]
SamH Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 12:44 pm

“The smart car is taking over the auto industry ”

Yeah right. Besides the fact that this is not true, you could not pay me to ride in one of these go-carts on an interstate highway. Not worth it for 33 city/40 hgwy. I was shocked when I saw how low the MPG was on these things. Why buy it?

[Reply]
Arb Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 3:04 pm

Highest demand ? I guess people still have a short memory.

In 2005 Dieter Zetsche got his way over the objections of all his VP’s and they started selling the diesel Jeep Liberty they sell to the rest of the world (under the name Cherokee CRD).

The VP’s only agreed to selll 5,000 per year in the US. In the first 2 months, they sold 11,000 of them and had requests for another 50,000.

They could not meet the demand for the additional 50,000 units as VM Motori (diesel engine maker owned by Detroit Diesel / DaimlerChrysler) was not tooled for that many engines.

Now that GM owns the share formerly owned by DaimlerChrysler, maybe they can get a small 50 state diesel from them for the Volt.

[Reply]
deadxmen Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 4:38 pm

Lyle, the waiting list, and the Volt got a mention on Marketplace on NPR yesterday as well. Great Job Lyle!

[Reply]

GM Expects an Initial Shortage for the Volt

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