Nissan CEO Ghosn: “I Don’t Want a Range Extender”
It looks like more fighting words in the OK Corral as GM vice-chair Bob Lutz has taken to calling the electric car competition arena.
Nissan’s CEO Carlson Ghosn has long stood by a pure EV approach. He recently told the New York Times that any electric car he would sell in the US would have to have at least a 100 mile range to be practical.
He was quoted as saying “I want a pure electric car. I don’t want a range extender. I don’t want another hybrid,” and “It’s not going to be zero emissions in certain conditions. It’s going to be zero emissions.”
Ghosn has said Nissan would bring a pure EV to the US within 2 years, and he further went on to say “Everything that we develop, we develop for profits. We make money on all our cars. We do not have loss leaders.”
With this statement he contends that his company would be able to pull off the seemingly elusive task of actually making a profit on first generation electric cars. This stands in contrast to GM’s claim that at a selling price of $40,000 the Volt would just about break even.
Ghosn has not given any details about these initial EVs and has noted production quantities would be meager, saying “we’re talking about hundreds of vehicles first.”
Source (New York Times )
Popularity: 8%
Related posts:
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- Renault-Nissan To Spend $1 Billion Building Electric Cars, and Already Shows One Off
- Nissan and NEC to Begin Mass Production of Automotive Lithium-ion Batteries in 2009
- GM Considering a Pure Electric Chevy Volt Without a Range Extender
- Nissan Proposes its Electric Car Concept: the Mixim
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July 25th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Nice… That sounds like “vaporware” announcements made by software companies to keep people from buying a competitors product until they get their act together.
Of course, it can only be a good thing to have more competition in the space. So, get on with it and let the consumer decide what they want… I know I for one very much want a range extender. It really makes sense as the best way to bridge the gap from where we are to all electric. So, in the meantime, whether it uses gas/diesel or something else, on the way to “quick charging” tech, is less important, as long as we’re headed in the right direction…
July 25th, 2008 at 9:11 am
1 MC,
Kind of like a 3/4 year pre-announce of the Volt.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Indeed, the proof is in the pudding MC… and I’m not exactly reaching for my spoon on that.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:15 am
I think Nissan may be referring to the fact that GM is carrying a lot of debt service and legacy labor costs that the Japanese car makers aren’t saddled with…I believe GM could make a very profitable automobile if it weren’t for those added costs…
July 25th, 2008 at 9:16 am
More power to ya, dude. If Nissan does that, I estimate collatoral benefits to GM, because technology does not stay secret for long, no matter who you are.
But then again, GM didn’t think Toyota would accomplish anything with the Prius, either.
Right now I have co-workers that spend the same amount of money PER MONTH on gas, that I spend to fill up my car EVERY 10 DAYS.
they own a Prius, I own a Pontiac. On paper, we make the same salary. But this month, they were able to use 200 dollars for something other than gasoline.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:19 am
Clearly, Nissan is falling behind.
I guess he thinks the U.S. geographic reality and the state of current technology shouldn’t interfere with his ideals. OK…….. hope his employees feel that way.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Promises, promises; talk is cheap and BEVs are expensive. Show me the product, or at least proof that the product is on its way. GM has been relatively open with Volt developments. I trust the Volt is more than vaporware. Nissan should be so forthcoming. A promise of a few hundred Nissan BEVs in 2 years is not enough.
p.s., that electric Mini should be fun.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Ghosn is betting the farm on Project Better Place, which is understandable given all the countries that are already on board. Personally, I would be placing more bets than that, and REEV is a great stepping stone for Nissan’s consumer base to get to the BEV.
I agree with MC that it sounds just like Microsoft’s fabled announcements of software development efforts, which killed sales of competitor’s offerings.
If I were Chrysler, I would be worried that Nissan might still be interested in buying them.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Spare me the zealots! ” I want a pure electric car ” sounds like he has drunk the Green koolaid. Though if we built 50 or 60 nuclear power plants in the next 10-20 years it might actually make some sense.
And regarding his disdain for E-Revs, why should I lug around hundreds of pounds of extra battery I use once a month in a BEV when I will be able to get an E-REV and then lug around a heavy range extender I use once a month…. Hmmm… This post didn’t come out the way I intended it to…
Seriously, tho, how heavy is the range extender compared to the weight of the batteries it replaces? That was one of the reasons I was sorry to see the 1.0 l. engine go.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Wow, I am not impressed, 100 Mile range. That might be great in France, or if you live in the city. Didn’t GM aready do that with the EV1. Many people had troubles even making it home from the dealer. I remember one News show talking to someone that bought an early EV1, that ran out of juice on the way home. You need a back up. My Harley goes about 120 Miles before I need to fill up but I can fill up everywhere. Even Tesla is now talking range extender. When the Volt was first anounced they said it was too complex. Now they are saying it might be just the thing. I want a car I can Drive Electricly and if I need to just keep on driving.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:27 am
If customers end up buying Extended Range EVs from other makers watch how long it takes Nissan to bolt an ICE to their EV.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:28 am
My commute to work is over 30 miles each way. So that means that on Friday after I go to work and get home that I can only travel “at most!” a 20 mile radius to date, go out with friends, etc. I’ve read the comments from the EV purists on this forum but I am sorry… A pure EV solution is only a half solution.
I am not even talking about taking trips (which all normal people do today in their cars) I’m just talking about weekly goofing off.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Good news,….More electric cars means more Solar-Wind garages…….”Build them and they will come”…….This is going to be a BIG boost for the U.S. economy …….Everyone back to work!!!!!
July 25th, 2008 at 9:32 am
#9 Ziv - are you suggesting the grid can’t handle pure EVs?
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/ptech/07/23/electriccars.grid.ap/index.html
July 25th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Yes a BEV with a higher range would be zero emissions, but still impratical for long trips. And if 75% of people truly only use 40 miles or less daily on their commute why haul around a 100 mile battery for the occasional time you may need more range. Most of that 60 miles capacity would rarely be used. So lets say you sell 1,000 BEV’s with 120 miles range and those 1,000 people drive with zero emissions.
Now take the same overall battery capacity and make 3,000 40 mile RE-EV’s. Now for most of the daily driving these 3,000 people do they will produce no emissions however the extra driving they do would use gas.
So we have 1,000 people using ZERO gas or 3,000 people using 90%less gas. The 2nd option still seems to be smarter and reduces the most overall comsumption of gas.
Batteries are a limited resource just like oil so we need to be efficiant and make the best use we can and right now that’s RE-EV so we can have the most miles driven on electricity.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:33 am
The key quote from Nissan is not in the NYT article Lyle links to under “Source” but the one he links to on anchor text “noted” in the last paragraph….
Quote: `He said that as many as 10 million of the 69 million vehicles produced each year worldwide could ultimately be electric-powered, with a concentration in urban areas. “We think that cars sold in cities are the obvious first starting point,” he said’
This is indeed where pure EV’s make the most sense, and are already in use in big cities worldwide. But don’t think Nissan is boxing themselves in… they do indeed plan to offer “range extenders” on some models, see http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121074186054991351.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
And for those who think Nissan is announcing “vaporware” to take the spotlight like MC said… it’s no different than GM.
There is room both both pure BEV’s and ones with range extenders (serial hybrids like the Volt). In the end it’s going to come down to price, quality (I drove my ‘87 Sentra for 12 years and got 35 mpg, and my Sentra was made in the USA in TN), etc. Ie. choices, which is good for all of us!
July 25th, 2008 at 9:35 am
According to Ghosn then, I guess Niisan is making a profit on the new (and ugly) GT-R?
After all, he said they make money on “all our cars”.
Jeff M @15: Quality comes in many forms. I drove my 1990 Berreta GT for 13 yrs and 260,000 miles. 31 mpg. Very few problems, all minor. My current 2003 Grand AM GT for 120,000 miles so far. 31 mpg. No trouble at all.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Competition is a good thing,
The marketplace will decide which is a better design, or if it needs both.
So get on with it and get some vehicles on the road!!!!!!!!!!
July 25th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Vaporware??…. This “volt” developement has been going on for years and they are still not sure about range extenders, efficiencies, batteries ect. By now you should have a working prototype and get some baseline figures.
Anyone who knocks the asian companies so take a look at the past…they are years ahead off all the american manufactures.
The honda insight from the 90s is better than ANY hybrid made by the big 3.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Mark H, are you saying GM has never sold a new vehicle that broke down and needed a tow on it’s maiden voyage from the dealership to the consumers home?
Seriously though… the original 1st generation EV1’s had notrious problems with the lead acid batteries… batteries built by Delco (aka GM)! The EV1 (and the Rav4-EV, Chevy S10-EV, etc) really shined with the Cobasys NiMH packs. Of course these days when GM shows the press slides they prefer to compare the Volt to the 1st generation EV1 and pretend the 2nd generation never existed (kind of what I like to do with the Alien/Aliens movies… they never made another one after those two :))
July 25th, 2008 at 9:50 am
A pure EV is a second car at best. An extended-range EV can be a primary car. Ghosn knows this (he is not an idiot), but an extended-range EV may not be a profitable as he would like. He doesn’t care about the need to lessen our dependency off of oil; he wants a minimum profit margin.
It is important to realize that GM is trying to change our infrastructure and Ghosn is trying to make a profit.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:52 am
Nissan’s concept will work very well in countries like Israel, where even a long trip between two major cities of Haifa and Jerusalem is about 100 miles. In America, where two relatively nearby cities like Boston and New York are about 190 miles apart, battery range won’t permit anything but commuting.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Color me not interested. 100 miles pure EV is practical as a second or third car but not for people who have any sort of a commute and need to run errands after work.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:56 am
GM should be shooting for a 100 mile all electric range with the volt. 40 miles just isn’t enough. Come on, WAKE UP GM! Build the volt with some meaningful range. Even the EV-1, God rest it’s soul, had a 100 mile range and that was with OLD battey tech.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:59 am
I think the Volt ICE weighs about 400 lbs and the 16 KWH battery pack weights about 400 lbs. But the range extender coupled with 10 gallons of gas can go 400 miles, whereas at best the battery pack can go 40 miles.
So at the current energy density of the first generation lithium batteries, it would take about 1000 lbs of battery for a 100 mile AER. Claims have been made for lithium ion batteries with twice the energy density, but I have not seen the claim that they can meet all three essential criteria, long cycle and calendar life, no thermal runaway problems, and cost per KWH below $750. Time will tell if Nissan has turned the page!
July 25th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Given the fact that over 3/4’s of US drivers drive 40 miles or less per day, a 100 mile AER might fill a niche - even in the USA. I still think that the range extender is absolutely necessary for widespread acceptance in the US.
JMO,
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 10:04 am
MetrologyFirst, 1st you drive a lot of miles/year! You are really going to give the Volt’s ICE a work out!
2nd, thanks for pointing out fuel efficiency made absolutely no improvements in the last 13 or 21 years (’08 Sentra gets no better than my ‘87 Sentra either)… even the Prius gets no better milage than GM’s Geo Metro 20 years ago that got 50+ mpg on it’s 1L 3-cyclinder engine and it could seat 5 (unlike the Volt’s 4). The auto makers need to take the same engine technology they used over the last 20 years to improve engine’s horse power and torque, and apply it to efficiency instead.
As for quality…. we can both relate our individual experiences… but the broader numbers (JD Power, etc) over the last 20 years don’t favor GM
But things can change… I remember our ‘76 Corolla which we drove in ‘81, only 5 years old, was a rust bucket! And labels on products that said “Made in Japan” was a joke just like “Made in China” is today… hopefully “Made in USA” will soon be more than a label of pride but a label of quality once again.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:06 am
Personally, I’m not going to knock anyone getting into this segment. Just get it done already.
No clue how Nissan plans on getting a full electric car to market in 2 years. Unless they have a super secret project running somewhere. Nissan has the same problem as the Volt has…only much worse, there is no backbone to the project, no prototype, no factory, no battery supplier, etc. etc.
I don’t know of any automaker that can get from a sketch on paper to a mass production ICE platform in under 24 months…let alone a cutting edge EV. Has there ever been such a feat accomplished in the history of the automobile? I can’t recall any…maybe Hitler’s VW in WWII?
July 25th, 2008 at 10:06 am
Pure and simple he doesn’t get it. As much everyone loves the green marketing, nobody really cares about “zero emissions”. At least not on an economic level…or a, you won’t be able to take a road trip to the beach because your car can’t go that far level.
The Volt will be a success because it makes economic sense, not because it is greener. It’s at least 3x cheaper to operate than a conventional compact car.
People like the sound of zero emissions but it doesn’t sound so good when you find out you don’t have the freedom of movement you’ve grown up with your whole life driving. Plus with a volt and some photovoltaics on your roof you can be zero emissions 99% of the time with all the flexibiilty you need to take that trip to the beach or mountains.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Statik@27
“I don’t know of any automaker that can get from a sketch on paper to a mass production ICE platform in under 24 months…let alone a cutting edge EV. Has there ever been such a feat accomplished in the history of the automobile? I can’t recall any…maybe Hitler’s VW in WWII?”
Maybe the conversions of factories to pump out aircarft in the USA during WW II, as well.
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 10:13 am
In a pure EV solution, what happens when there are wide spread power outtages?
July 25th, 2008 at 10:15 am
#28 Well said “economics!” The ic engine is still the cheapest overall (purchase and operate)
#30 Good point! What if we have another Katrina or Rita? You can still pour gasoline in a Volt!!!
I like the idea of not being limited to one fuel source.
HURRY GM GET’ER DONE!!!!
July 25th, 2008 at 10:16 am
I refuse!!!
I refuse to believe that Nissan can make a profit on a car that is produced in the hundreds. OHHHH! I guess he ment ONE day they would make a profit on it. Sounds like spin on the exact same thing toyota did and now GM with the Volt possibly.
It also sounds like Nissan is saying a E-REV is too complicated. The engineering challenges of doing a E-REV are so much more complex than just a straight BEV. I can see it now. Pulling hair out on the the what if’s that need to be considered and taking into account the added cost of an electric car / gasoline car combo just made Nissan throw up its hands and say the heck with that. BEV or nothing.
Time will tell which is the better path and don’t think that E-REV is a slam dunk over a Nissan BEV either. Why? Because initially battery availability will keep production numbers low. By the time that hurdle is overcome, by then maybe technology will be available to do the BEV and have E-Flex obsolete. 2015 is a long ways away.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:16 am
What’s the “Solar-Wind” stuff?
Sounds like a ginormous thousand mile tall windmill on the Moon, harnessing the Solar Wind. Here’s my idea: we could build the tower with much lighter materials by simply putting it *hanging down* from the *bottom side* of the Moon!
We’ll deliver the power to Earth via EEStore modules.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:22 am
I guess Ghosn won’t be buying a Volt…..
July 25th, 2008 at 10:27 am
As the competition heats up… every car maker is now telling the world… yep we got an electric / electric hybrid coming….
I am predicting that one of major car makers is going to get my money in the spring of 2011… that is when I will be upgrading my 07 MAXX.. (it will have well over 240,000 kms on it by then.).
I WILL be buying the one that gets me the best bang (or should I say hummm) for my bucks..
GM … you could be the one with the Volt… Price, options and availabilty …. that is what going to sell me… When I buy … I am not going to order a car and then wait 6 months for my new toy… I will want it on the day I hit the dealer ship..
July 25th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Van “16 KWH battery pack …. at best … can go 40 miles”
You are specifically looking at the Li chemistries going into the Volt where in order to have the battery last the life of the vehicle only 50% of the capacity is being used…
… however go back to the last EnerDel thread at http://tinyurl.com/6r2xjk … their Li chemistry is supposed to be able to use 95% of the packs capacity (and still maintain long life)…. so a 16kwh EnerDel pack could give about 80 miles/charge.
In addition there are other chemistries out there that can be “quick charged” … look at the Subaru’s R1e at http://tinyurl.com/57g9cp …. it can be charged from empty to 80% in 15 minutes. Nissan also has battery technology that can be quick charged (going 1st into electric forklifts in 2009).
You combine a 100 miles/charge BEV with the ability to be quick charged, and the infrastruture will pop up like the recent thread about Coulomb Technology building charging stations (obviously quick charge stations will cost more to build), and range anxiety will fade….
…. imagine if every rest stop on California’s major highways had a quick charge station…
Like lots of us say…. build them both! Plug-in hybrids and plug-in non-hybrids. I don’t think it’s a matter of one “winning” and the other “losing”, hopefully they both win and hence we all win!
July 25th, 2008 at 10:31 am
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the more people (car makers) we have at the EV party, the better it is for all of us.
I actually agree w/ Nissan on this. I’m pretty certain at this point I don’t want/need a range extender, especially if the extender will add significantly to the price of the car. That’s just me though.
To each their own
July 25th, 2008 at 10:32 am
JeffM @ 26:
Yeah, that is a lot of miles a year. But mostly highway so its bearable.
Speaking of bearable; for me, who spends a lot of time in the car, it has to be fun to drive and an enjoyable experience. I don’t think I could spend that much time in a cavalier or cobalt, or any other small bland car. That would have driven me nuts.
My Beretta was a bright yellow, 5 sp, Indy pace car version. The Grand Am GT is a 30th anniv. edition. These cars were/are fun to drive, fun to walk up to, fun to be in. I think that matters to a lot of people.
My biggest feat is that this gas crisis will cause the public to blindly accept every cheap, boring, ugly car design offered for the sake of gas mileage, irreversibly altering our car choices in the future. I think that would be a tragedy. That is another reason I strongly argue the Volt must have a fun, exciting, attractive design. By making it an aero bubble for the sake of drag and miles per charge promises, and then us buying them all, could really limit what we might get from the makers in the future. I love car design and I don’t think we have to check that at the door to be able to move efficiently into the next decades.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Competition is always a good thing. If Ghosn is right, then we’ll have more choices to choose from. If Ghosn is just blowing hot air, at the very least this will get GM’s attention.
As for range-extenders, I realize that everyone has their own individual needs and I really don’t care what they are. I just want more EV’s available, the sooner the better, so that we can stop sending all our money to the Middle East.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:37 am
#17 Jim I:
Right.
#18 THOM:
Also right, alas.
As I have said before, you sell Carlos Ghosn short at your peril. His track record speaks for itself. Nissan went from about where GM is now to profitability under his management.
#33 Fahrvergnugen Fanboy:
Sonds like a plan! Can we get it done in 2 years?
July 25th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Who cares what Nissan thinks? The whole emissions thing will soon be a non-issue. Stay the course GM.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:42 am
#20 Aspherical - Yep, that about sums it up. Ghosn just sees dollars and so he doesn’t like E-Revs. I think he’s full of it.
Ghosn’s little speach should be filled with asterisks. With current (and evolving) battery tech pure BEVs are just not practical. A 100 mile range BEV is also not the same as a ICE vehicle with a 100 mile range. Battery range can vary wildly depending on temperature, acceleration, accesories used, etc. I’ve heard the battery powered S-10s could get 100 miles or more per charge under ideal circumstances, but could die in as little as 20 miles with ‘enthusiastic’ driving.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Advice for Nissan
Put some tow hooks or a trailering hitch on the front bumber of this pure EV. Many pure EV drivers will tell you that this comes in handy when the battery is dead.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:44 am
David asking about EV’s in a wide spread power outage….
unless your gasoline filling stations have backup generators, last I knew those pumps used electricity as well (not to mention they need electronic access for credit/debit card processing).
I hope to get a home solar and/or wind system after I get an EV… not just to recharge my EV, but to provide some of the power for the house as well.
But we definitely need to “fix” this countries electrical infrastructure…. even if EV’s never take off (which could happen if oil prices plunged, I’d still want an EV, but the auto makers will be pushing and building high profit margin trucks/SUV’s again). Time to mention Picken’s plan again… http://www.pickensplan.com/theplan/ …. he estimates $200B(illion) for infrastruture to get that wind power to cities and towns just for the area that would be in range to get power from those turbines. Nationwide maybe it would cost $1T? There’s also talk about putting in superconductor cables cross country to distribute power (so off peak in one part of the country can provide capacity to those at peak, etc).
It’s a big challenge… we just need a congress that wants to make it a reality and able to say no to the oil/gas lobby….
July 25th, 2008 at 10:47 am
The industry will shift step by step. A jump to pure EV is not practical. But if you start with an EREV it’s practical today. And folks will start adding charging ports for the EREV’s. Imagine Starbucks, free Wi-FI, first $0.25 electricity free, $5.00 for a thimble of coffee. Once this is in place, pure EV’s can no come along because the infrastructure has been built for the EREV’s.
You see this economic flow in the batteries. Developed for laptops where folks willingly pay for them, and once its developed, new markets open up. But you can’t skip the first step. Each step must be economically viable. And when it is, you get a whole new world.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Jeff M
Have you heard that T. Boone Pickens “needs” a “public domain” corridor to transmit his turbine power? Of more concern is that he happens to want to run his natural gas lines through the same corridor.
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Nissan is just waiting for someone else to do the preliminary development so they can benefit from it. Nothing new there.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Ziv (#9),
You asked about the weight of extra batteries vs the weight of an EREV approach. I suspect the EREV will be heavier, but the issue most people care about is cost and flexibility, not weight. The EREV is much less expensive and can be refueled in minutes at existing gas stations. A long-range pure EV will cost a fortune and will require many hours to recharge.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:03 am
#29 Tag
“Maybe the conversions of factories to pump out aircarft in the USA during WW II, as well.”
These ‘aircarfts’ sound sexy…I want one, and I don’t even know why. It’s a car and a plance…finally the day of personal flying vehicles has come!
Maybe the Nissan guy can whip up some of those in under two years as well, while he is at it.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:08 am
To be practical you can’t require a multi-hour refuel/recharge.
So you either need something like a Range Extender (ala Volt) or a 10 minute charge battery technology like the Altairnano (ala Lightning GT)
Otherwise you’re gonna get stuck sooner or later, unless you spend way too much time worrying about your SOC.
Ken
July 25th, 2008 at 11:11 am
#49 Statik
The irony of me mis-spelling plane is not lost on me.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Statik@49
Bob Lutz agrees with you. I think he owns at least six. I got a kick out of GreenCarCongress describing Lutz as having a “carbon footprint about the size of Delaware”. Actually, that’s pretty accurate (g).
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Hey it all leads to more and more electrification of the car and less and less ICE…..and by less ICE, I’m not talking about the shrinking glaciers!
Can’t wait to see where we are in say 5 or so years — more so on the cars than the glaciers of course.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Tagamet regarding Picken’s plan… I also don’t agree with his plan to take natural gas power plants offline and divert that NG to general transportation. I also understand this guy regardless of age and apparent altruism, is still a businessman (ie. he plans to make more money).
However the wind power part of the plan sounds very bold. This country does indeed have a vast renewable energy resource that is untapped. I’m still waiting to hear peer review of his “facts”, but if you can spend only $1.2T to get 20% of the United States electrical power generation from wind, and those wind mills can operate for a long time so you can amortatize the cost, that sounds relatively cheap way to get tons of renewable and relatively very clean (there is always bound to be some environmental impact) power… especially if it displaces coal power plants (existing *or* planned) then it’s an even bigger win!
Imagine if all our power came from wind, solar (thermal and PV), geothermal, hydro, nuclear, and natural gas…. and combine that with 10’s of millions of plug-ins…. we’d have a nicely diverse, relatively clean, and 100% domestic energy to power our homes and to drive us around…..
July 25th, 2008 at 11:29 am
StatiK re irony
It wasn’t lost on Moi either (lol)
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Since they have no pure BEV’s, all Nissan’s CEO Carlson Ghosn can do is posture.
I believe pure BEV’s are inevitable, but it will be a gradual transition.
A serial plug-in hybrid like the Volt is the first step in that transition, it is necessary.
Nissan is doing itself a great disservice by not trying to bring its own serial plug-in hybrid to market.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Jeff M re Pickens
Wow, mark it on our calendars - we totally agree! I’ve priced both solar and wind here and their cost rigt now is prohibitive. Once we get to superconductors that function at ambient temperatures, we’ll be able to move those electrons quicker than a slplit lip.
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Honda is perfecting the Clarity, Toyota is into Prius Gen 2, and GM has Volt/Flextreme Gen 1. Just exactly how far up his butt does Carlos Ghosn have to reach to pull out innovation? Especially since GM and Toyota have already done the hard part…
July 25th, 2008 at 11:52 am
People should chill on the profitability question. Whether a car is profitable or not primarily depends on how you apportion the development and other fixed costs. The first car off the line is never profitable. So, on the front end, when you’re guessing whether you will make a profit, the answer depends on your estimate of the production run. GM and Lutz seem to be leaning towards apportioning the costs over a shorter run. Goshn towards a longer run. It’s really more about PR and politics than anything until the car nears its EOL and you actually know what the production run was.
For people wanting a Volt the news from Nissan is very good news. More competition should keep the pressure on GM to keep the price down. Nothing focuses a company more than competition.
The 100 mile range is also a good benchmark. Lots of people would never need any more, especially if they also had a Volt (or ICE car)! Tesla has produced a 200 mile range car with off-the-shelf batteries. I can’t see why Nissan, with far more resources, should not be able to get to 100 miles. And as some have pointed out, as time goes on we’ll probably see quick chargers and so forth develop. Who knows, perhaps EEStor will work out and the size, cost, and recharging time will do way down while the range will go way up.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Ghosn just has to be the biggest CEO blockhead on the planet. He also hasn’t been in favor of “pure electrics” for all that long - he was
telling the world a little over a year ago that electric cars were impractical and that he wouldn’t be interested in building any. Then came Project Better Place, an apparently monopolistic scheme with Ghosn’s renault as the apparently monopolistic supplier of cars. Suddenly Ghosn was transformed from EV-hater to EV- lover. The fact that the public was clamoring for electrics might have played some small part here, since his companies’ car weren’t selling alll that well back then.
His primary fallacies are :
1) His “pure electrics” aren’t “zero emision” vehicles except in the convoluted and illogical reasoning of the California CARB. Until
you can find outlets connected to the grid that provide zero emission electricity, you ain’t going to find any zero emission electric cars.
2) A “pure” (battery-only) electric has no demonstrable advantage over a plug-in with a an electric driving range of 40 or more miles.
‘Ghosn is simply ignorant of the extent to which such a plug-in can eliminate gasoline and emissions. Stupid claims of “100 MPG,” or “150 MPG” for such plug-ins grossly underestimate the actually expected mileages, and are based on no credible data. We can easily show that during commuting (approx 50% of gas consumption) a fleet of Volts can achieve well over 200 MPG - closer to 300 MPG, (based on DOT commuter trip stats), even without workplace recharging, avoiding over 93% of liquid fuel. It can exceed 450 MPG by asuming relatively low levels of workplace recharging of around 30%, avoiding over 98% of current gasoline consumption. Ethanol can easily supply any liquid fuel required.
3) Ghosn implies that his scheme will eliminate 100% of gasoline demand, but I’d like to ask how his EV owners are going to get to those thousands of destinations that his EV cannot reach? They will have to use gas powered vehicels, whereas those same trips using a plug-in would not only
a) get better gas mileage and fewer emissions and
b) use electricity for a non-trivial portion of those trips, making the Ghosn EV owner the “gas hog,” for those occasions.
Of course, only about 50% of crude is actually used for gasoline for private vehicles, those that could conceivably be replaced by Ghosn’s pure vehicles. That leaves a whopping 50% of petroleum based fuel consumption still here.
Thus, any differences between a Ghosn fleet and a Volt fleet in terms of emissions/gas avoidance, will be practically invisible.
The general public isn’t quite as stupid as the younger generation
and the auo-ignorant who are the ones embracing “pure electrics” these days. Fortunately consumers will have a choice, and it’s clear that the Volt will fare very well when compared to a pure electric, no matter what. “Pure electric” advocates are simply out of touch with reality. Ghosn is shilling his technology because he doesn’t have the time nor probably the capability to produce a plug-in hybrid.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
#58
Have you ever seen or drove a GM Volt/Flextreme Gen1??
Till I drive one and be able to look under the hood, it is just “air vapor”.
Just have to take that approach since i worked for companys that displayed stuff at trade shows that didnt actually work.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
100 miles sounds great to me (40s not enough). My round trip to work is 52 miles if I do no running around. 100 mile range gives me room to spare.
I have my VW 98 Jetta TDI that gets 50mpg for long trips.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
#57 Tagamet
“I’ve priced both solar and wind here and their cost rigt now is prohibitive.”
Are you making an apples to oranges comparison by looking at centrally generated coal and distributed wind and solar? If electricity from coal (or nuclear) was priced on a distributed model it would be in the stratosphere. (The coal plant in your backyard would not be cheap to build and maintain).
AFAIK (my recollection), central generated wind today is cost competitive with coal at $.08/kW. Central solar (thermal) is somewhat higher at $.13/kW. Solar PV — which can be distributed generated — is almost double coal and wind, but the new thin films should drive that to $.08/kW, and some companies claim they can get to $.06/kW. In five years solar may be the lowest cost source of electricity (10 years to have that make it to a residential market).
One benefit of wind and solar is that they tend ot compliment each other. Wind blows more strongly at night; the sun is out during the day.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Maybe in 10 to 20 years when electric car will be rechargeable in 5 minutes or less (Ultra-capacitors?) a purely electric car will be viable. But until then they will become second vehicles. And who wants a $40K second car confined to short trips… A range extender is necessary! I live in a remote area and can get to work and do my day to day with short range, but I don’t want my vehicle to limit me to the point where I’d be living on a virtual “island” having to rent another vehicle to leave my region or god forbid…take the bus or a train!
July 25th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
electric vehicles are currently being produced in the UK and europe
http://www.goingreen.co.uk/store/
July 25th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Just like Toyota, I’m sure Nissan has EREV plans on the drawing board…
July 25th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Raymond, you have some key facts wrong…. such as where did you come up with 10-20 years for an EV to be quick charged when it that capability already exists today and does not require ultracaps but just chemical batteries like Li-Ion. And where do you set 5 minutes as the bar? It takes me longer than that to fill up with gasoline….
I think you are also going to be surprised when you see BEV’s for far less than $40k… comparing it to 1st generation Volt is not a very good benchmark.
You also make the mistake of globalizing your situation…. lots of folks also live in urban areas… especially outside the USA. And they don’t all have the aversion you have to public transportation. In any case, they will build quick charge capable EV’s, and that will spur the growth of quick charge stations, so you won’t have to feel all couped up in your region. In fact I even imagine we’ll see road side assistence be able to provide a partial “quick charge” for those that didn’t listen to their EV’s telling them they were running out of juice, enough to get them home or a quick charge station (just like they do now by giving you a gallon of gas).
July 25th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Looks like I am going to carry a portable Honda generator with me at all times in my Nissan EV. Hope it fits in the trunk.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
kent, it’s hard to take you seriously when you use extremist and insulting language….
#1 is not a fallacy… BEV’s are indeed emissions free and not just in CARBs mind (who think HFC’s are)…. no one is saying that implies that the electricity source is. You seem to be making the fallacy the oil companies have spouted that BEV’s just move the tail pipe from the vehicles to the power plants… when we of course know that even if that was so, power plants are much cleaner because it’s easier to control polution at a couple thousands power plants than hundreds of millions of vehicle tailipipes. In addition it moves that pollution from downtown urban areas where it’s responsible for 10’s of thousands or more deaths each year (like crapping in the same room you eat in)….
However the reality is California’s electrical power is the cleanest in the country, and anyone getting power from hydro and nuclear today is getting clean power, as well as from the growing wind (see Picken’s plan) and solar and geothermal sources.
By the way, for folks who haven’t done so, try googling “kent beuchert” … there are lots of theories that it’s not one person but many using that name all over the place (if it’s one person they appear to not sleep but just blog 24/7 all over the place).
July 25th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
#38 Metrology First
I had a ‘92 Beretta GTZ stick shift for years, and it was my favorite car. Great engine, great handling, NEVER had a problem. When I sold it at 150K miles you could have eaten off the engine. Man, what a car. I sold it when my wife and I went down to a single car, because she couldn’t drive a stick. Sheeesh… women!
July 25th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
#! MC
“So, get on with it and let the consumer decide what they want…”
I agree. Let’s get on with it. I am ready for an electric vehicle now. Gas prices have fallen here by about 30 cents over the past week. That does not dull my appetite for the Volt or a Smart EV “like” vehicle.
I say: Go GM and Go, Go, Go Volt.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
I don’t think EVs are going to have much effect on the environment. It will most likey reduce dependence on foreign oil, which is a good thing. As for the environment, it makes no difference where you relieve yourself because in reality the whole world is one giant toilet bowl, this is why most europeans urinate outside.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Jim @ 70:
I don’t think the Beretta line got nearly enough props at the time. It was a nice looking car, fun to drive, and nearly bullet proof. The sticks were geared just right. Just another example of “hidden” GM quality that never seems to get equal air time. GM may have had some trouble with quality back then, but it wasn’t evident in the Berettas. That 3.1L V6 would run forever.
BTW, I love a manual shift. If there is anything I miss on the Grand Am, its the stick. I consider myself a car driver, not a car pilot like most. No wonder people think of cars as appliances anymore.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
#5 ECO
Ask them how much of a car payment and insurance they have to pay on the Prius. I guarantee that difference will become very very small. Insurance on a prius i know is not very cheap at all.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Hi Jeff M @36, good catch. But I am sure you noticed the Think battery was 28 KWH and rated for only 110+ miles per charge. If we assume the capacity used is 26 KWH, and again use the highly optimistic 5 miles per KWH, that gets us to 130 miles. Note that the same article said the 19 KWH pack from A123 was good for less than 70 miles. So is my estimate that the battery will weigh in at about 1000 lbs much off the mark. I think not, but as you correctly observed, due to the higher utilization of some batteries, the weight might be less by 2 or 3 hundred pounds.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
This post is circling the drain……
Ok, Nissan CEO gives a speech on electrics, lets get on with something worth blistering our fingers over.
How about more about the oversized 1.4L ICE? (Sorry, I just cannot resist, since this statement tends to bring out a lot of “personalities”)
July 25th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
#52 Tagamet
“got a kick out of GreenCarCongress describing Lutz as having a “carbon footprint about the size of Delaware”. ”
That puts Bob nearly in the same ball park as Al Gore, doesn’t it?
July 25th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
The more I read and hear about T Boone Pickens’ wind power plans, I think that instead of spending all that money for each large city complex (just how many large city complexes would that be at $200B each?) you should take a small part of that and give it as tax breaks to home owners and businesses to have a wind turbine installed at home or at work to help provide power. That would cost a lot less than these ridiculously large wind farms for each large city. With what they are going to cost to plan, build and provide power corridors you could completely pay every home or business to install one or two turbines for nearly all of their power needs and probably provide solar panels in the future to help out on still days.
We don’t have to go for the biggest, shiniest marble in the bag every time. Maybe we should address wind and solar power not in mass but individually, one home or business at a time.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
#60 kent beuchert
Goshen expects to have the Project Better Place battery replacement centers in operation. After you go around 100 miles on your extended trip, you pull into one of these little handy dandy swap out battery places and for a nice tidy little sum they pull out your spent battery and whip in a fully charged one. Off you go for another hundred miles or so. See, this works out just fine for Project Better Place, Nissan and Renault. The money continues to flow in even after the vehicle purchase. You don’t own the battery, they do.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Why does the Geo Metro always come up?
You can’t compare compare that to any car today.. even the Aveo has more power.. and even then its not too great.
Sure you can have 50mpg, just throw a motorcycle engine in a tiny car body and there you go.
People want “real” cars these days, thats why the metro died out.
And someone said stick shift is best - I would just like to ask:
Have you driven a modern automatic?
My ‘05 sunfire can shift instantly, without anyone feeling it. Can you do that with your manual (while still accelerating)?
And with the newer generation of “manual” auto’s some manufacturers are using, you can tell it to shift up or down whenever you please.
IMO the “stick shift” is completely obsolete - they really only offer it for those too stubborn to give it up, or to save the $1k on the price tag. (Some cars don’t even offer it anymore, they only make auto variants)
July 25th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
#80 canehdian
I think most people enjoy the stick-shift experience. I know I do. The semi manual shifts don’t quite cut it
Maybe its just a Tim Allen moment, but I prefer to be in control of the car, and shifting based on what I want, not what the car wants.
btw: $1,000 in my pocket is always a nice perk!
IMHO
July 25th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
canehdian @80:
JEC @81 is correct. Its not about whether its “best” or not. Thats meaningless. Its more fun and responsive using a stick. Different experience.
But you have to like to and want to DRIVE a car to understand. If you want an appliance car, the auto is perfect for you.
And by the way, I’d pay $1000 EXTRA if I could get the manual option. Every time.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
I’m ready for an update on the Maili-Mules. How are they performing?
July 25th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Bantam received the Army’s formal specification for the Jeep on July 11, 1940 and delivered it’s first prototype on September 23,1940. Cars were a lot simpler back then.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Check this article out: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25840353/
The article states that there is a new technology that I am going to coin as BRT(Battery Regenerative Techonogy). It takes the heat developed by an ICE and converts it to energy to store in a battery. This allows the ICE in the volt to be BRT and not BST(Battery Sustaining Technology). To me it makes no sense to sustain batteries, you should charge them while driving. This would allow that to happen with out increase in emissions.
After the battery is recharge by the ICE to a percent that is most efficient (as I understand a battery is charged much faster to a certain point say fist 85% and then decreases the time it takes to finish the charge after that) then the ICE shuts off and runs pure electric again. While the engine is still hot(but off) the BRT will continue to charge the battery.
This technology would help extend the range on the non-emission side of the volt and will work well for long distant trips.
The article states in the future BRT will only cost about $10.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
N Riley - Just curious what state you are in that gas prices dropped $0.30 in the past week. I’m in the San Francisco Bay Area and gas prices dropped about $0.15 in the past two weeks.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
A little off topic, but still GM-related news on employee discounts.
http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_9996854
July 25th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Statik, are you getting slow in your old age?
TODAY:
GM shares fell $1.01, or 7.8 percent, to $11.99 in afternoon trading.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
How’s this for a positive spin? It’s all good.
Based upon the “range anxiety” issue we have discussed here so often, building a pure BEV right now is a big risk. That’s why GM came up with the Volt in the first place.
If Nissan builds a BEV and it actually succeeds in the marketplace, so much the better. They will have taken the huge risk, with its huge downside. By then GM will have developed its battery technology to the point that it can just jump in behind Nissan and sell the Volt with no range extender that so many have suggested here. Or a dedicated BEV, so much the better again.
I don’t believe that any one manufacturer will have enough capacity to satisfy the demand, so everybody can sell cars and (hopefully) make money.
You go Carlos. Jump right into the deep end.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
#75 Van
Actually you are off the mark because the way the Volt uses the battery, you exaggerated the battery weight by a couple hundred pounds (as much as 2x depending on the specific battery), which is fairly significant. If you want to guess what is the best avaliable in terms of energy density, I think the Tesla roadster’s battery pack, which uses conventional laptop battery cells, is the easiest to compare to. It gets 220 miles and the pack weighs around 900-1000 lbs, this includes the cooling systems and the aluminum shell and everything. For 110 miles the pack would be around 500 lbs.
You cited “16 KWH battery pack weights about 400 lbs”, 16KWH can probably get you a little less than 80 miles if you believe the Volt’s figures, since the Volt uses only 8kWh (EVs usually won’t keep half the pack unused). So the pack will be nearer 500 lbs for 100 miles per your numbers, not 1000 lbs, depending how much capacity you don’t use to prevent deep cycling. If you use the think figures and your numbers, it’ll be 640lbs, which is much nearer 500lbs than 1000lbs.
Back on the main topic, I think it all depends on the price. If they can make a 100 mile range EV that is cheaper than the 40 mile PHEV, city users might consider the EV. More competition is always better anyways b/c they can drive the price down.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
If Nissan builds a 100 Mile EV then the Range extender sits in the Garage. I visit the beach to go diving multiple times a year at 350 miles 1 way. With the Volt I need 1 car with the Nissan I need 2
July 25th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
#74 Sean
If all things were equal (or neglible cost difference between them) which car would you rather have?
July 25th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
DonC
All I’m comparing is “Can I afford it” or “Can’t I afford it” (for my home). I’m Pro wind and solar, but I won’t be able to afford it until the price for an individual costs a lot less than 3 times the cost of our house! If/when the price drops, I’m on board.
Be well,
Tag
PS Heating and cooking with coal was the norm for my grandparents. Very distributed, and not just in the country - it was citified too.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
#86 Kent
Mississippi. Some stations were selling Regular gas for $3.99 a little over a week ago. Now some of the same stations are selling it for $3.69. Average price at this time in central Mississippi (Jackson area) is about $3.85 /gal. I should have said that some prices have fallen as much as 30 cents while some have fallen only about 15 to 20 cents. Just depends on the area of the city/county. Prices can vary here by as much as 10 cents /gal on the best days.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
#78 N Riley:
Once again, I have to agree with you. Distribution infrasturcture for all of this power is going to become a huge problem.
A perfect example is here in LA, where the Department of Water and Power wants to import “green” geothermally generated electricity from the desert area around the Salton Sea. Sounds great, but there is not enough transmission capacity. So, they are proposing to build “high lines” through a large dedicated nature preserve. Instant pitched battle with the locals out around 29 Palms.
Laugh or say NIMBY if you want, but this will be a huge and highly controversial issue all over the country. “High lines” have a massive visual impact, especially in the Desert Southwest. Not to mention that they are hideously expensive.
If the power sources could be, as you suggest, decentralized closer to the point of use, a lot of this could be avoided.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Well we’ll have to wait and see what Nissan has up their sleeve. If an EV with no range extender could be developed by GM, I’m sure they would be working on it full throttle, perhaps they are. But any batery pack that takes more than a few minutes to charge needs a range extender. I don’t want to have to buy two cars, one for turtling around town and one for longer trips.
I would not buy a Volt without a range extender or any Japanese car. In time the batteries will come with the charging stations, and the range extender will no longer be required. Its just a matter of time.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
#95 Noel Park
I know the cost of solar arrays and wind turbines may be a little pricey right now to allow each house and business to have enough to generate adequate power. But, if you consider what it is going to cost to build Pickens’ wind farms a 100 times over for different cities, then we are talking about a much lower cost to mass produce arrays, wind turbines and install them all across the country. They could be installed on each home or business or a larger unit could be installed to serve a group of houses or businesses.
I am not an environmentalist, but I don’t like the idea of spoiling our countryside with wind and solar farms every few miles with their associated transmission lines and towers.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
N Riley
Yep, Maximum Al sure looks like he has Maximum Bob beat on the huge carbon footprint. Exen if Gore just stopped TALKING it’d cut down on emissions….
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Hehe, Ghosn looks disappointed in that photo. I wonder if he will have that same look when his Nissan EV dies in the middle of nowhere because it had no range-extender…
July 25th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
#88 JEC
“Statik, are you getting slow in your old age?
TODAY: GM shares fell $1.01, or 7.8 percent, to $11.99 in afternoon trading.”
No, I’m just trying to be more ‘upbeat’ lol.
But if we are posting on ‘things that make you go hmmm’ I find this to be very, VERY interesting:
“Chrysler LLC’s financial arm on Friday said it would stop offering vehicle leases to U.S. consumers, a sharp break in strategy in response to plunging resale prices for gas-guzzling trucks and tighter credit”
The result has been a sharp decline in the resale prices for light trucks that has forced major automakers and related lenders to take large losses to write down the value of leases on those once-popular vehicles.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080725/chrysler.html
July 25th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
N. Riley said : “I know the cost of solar arrays and wind turbines may be a little pricey right now to allow each house and business to have enough to generate adequate power”
A LITTLE pricey???
And the Pope is “somewhat religious” (g).
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
I am too old to ever see it, but I hope that one day each and every home or business will be more or less self-sufficient in regards to electrical power. They would need to be connected to the “grid” only to provide additional power as needed or to send power back up the line as excess generated electricity. This should all be possible in the next 25 to 50 years. Older homes and businesses could be converted to wind and solar while all new homes and businesses would have new modern generating equipment built-in. This is not a far-fetched idea. It has been talked about for the past 30 years. it is about time we start a program through our federal and local governments that would help us build for the future. Government must be involved because this is a national problem and they have the resources (money) to see the program through.
I would rather see us spend money for this than to build the wind and solar farms and the infrastructure they will require. And that does not even take into consideration the cost of fighting law suits for the next 30 years.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Maybe Nissan will offer free AAA memberships ?
July 25th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Pure electric will be less complicated and 100 miles will be fine for a lot of folks. That will get me to work and back with a bit left over. The little Honda generator in the trunk would not be a bad idea for an emergency though.
Remember that T. Boone Pickens was recently an oil man that funded the slander campaign (swift boats …)that insured Bush won. IMO he is just up to another scam to line his pockets.
China has instituted even and odd licence plate driving in Bejing. There are some pictures of before and after. Basically you can see blue skys where you couldn’t before.
GM is being conservative with the batteries (can’t blame them) the batteries like the A123s can charge very quickly up to about 80% full. I believe testing will establish a wider operating range.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
102 N. Riley:
Part of the reason is the research and development for the technolog has TAKEN 30 years to come this far and be marginally commercially viable. Good thing it got this far by this time or we would be really really in a pickle.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
To those of you who keep saying solar arrays are too expensive….
I installed 27 solar panels on my roof three years ago. It cost me $20K at that time, which I financed with a home equity loan. I save about $200 - $250 a month on my electric bill, which I use to pay off my home equity loan (interest is tax deductible). Based on my situation, my loan will be paid off in 8 - 9 years and I’ll continue to get free electricity for many years to come.
Why won’t this work for you guys?
July 25th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
#101 Taganet
“A LITTLE pricey???
And the Pope is “somewhat religious” (g).”
I believe once all the cost are in, T Boone Pickens’ plan, when duplicated hundreds of times across the country plus all the legal fees will be extremely more expensive than placing wind and solar generation equipment at or near each home or business. Neither plan could be accomplished overnight. We are talking about probably 50 years for Mr. Pickens’ plan whereas my plan could be accomplished in probably half that. It would require a large workforce trained to install and test each installation and when that is done some of them would stay on as maintenance personnel.
Every part of this country receives wind and solar power from nature and the sun. All we have to do is start harnessing both of them for every household and business. Sure it is expensive, but look at the Pickens’ cost and the cost of building more power plants whether petroleum fueled or nuclear. There is no cheap solution.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
#104 Len
“China has instituted even and odd licence plate driving in Bejing. There are some pictures of before and after. Basically you can see blue skys where you couldn’t before.”
That is great, but I believe this is just for the Olympics. Once that is over, I suspect fumes will once again reign supreme over Chinese skies.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
#93 Tag
I was thinking you might be looking at distributed wind and solar. FWIW, from the couple of people I know who have tried both, their conclusion is that solar PV just runs and wind has a lot of problems, especially mechanical.
For this among other reasons I went with PV solar. The solar guys throw a lot of junk calculations at you, all designed to show what a good financial idea solar is. My back of the envelope approach was to take the output of the system per year, multiply it by the number of years you think the system will work for, and then divide that into the cost of the system. Purists will say you need to factor in a discount rate and expected cost increases going forward, but my thinking is that cost increases will more than offset the discount rate and it’s just starts getting too dependent on very inexact guesstimates. Better to just look at how the costs compare today.
For me, even with the credits and rebates, the cost is $.17/kW if I assume a 20 year life (the system with a few tweaks should last a lot longer but the roof is a question …). That’s 50% higher than my current bottom tier rate and about 50% less than the highest rate (we have a tier rate structure where the more you use the higher rate you pay at).
If they can drive the installed costs down by 50%, which I think likely if the rebates stay in place, in ten years (five for commercial) we’re looking at $.125/kW delivered without any subsidies at all. At this point distributed solar will be cheaper than any alternative.
But of course by then you’ll probably be on your second Volt.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
#106 Kent
Why won’t this work for you guys?”
My point exactly. Thanks.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
The pure electric vehicle has its place for urban America in some situations, so from that stand point it does well. For rural America, which is where I live, I could only consider a pure electric as a second vehicle. I drive18 miles round trip to work. My wife and I drive 40 miles round trip to get groceries and eat out. And for any type of real shopping, say a mall for example, we have to drive over 140 miles round trip–(please understand I live in a very rural area) For most situations an ev would work for me, but any side runs and I could easily be very worried about getting back home without some type of charging stations. And again, in my rural area, where would I find a “quick charge”?
The Volt, solves these problems, and gives me the cushion to have the benefits of an ev, but not the worries that a pure ev would give me. For me, and for most or rural America, for now, the Volt is by far the most practical. Just my honest opinion-yours and your needs may differ.
Hawk
July 25th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
N. Riley
If they were driving electric vehicles they wouldn’t have this problem.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
N. Riley,
I live in central Penna, right next to absolutely nowhere. Our Gov thinks of himself as cutting edge “Green”, but there is only a $500 tax break on solar or wind.
Where did you buy and from whom did you buy?
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
@112 Len
Nor would we, especially California.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
#114 Tagamet
That was Kent (#106) that installed the solar array. I just wish I could afford it now.
Your Governor and his party want programs offered that will “tie” you to more government programs and make you dependent, not independent.
July 25th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
MetrologyFirst,
The Beretta talk is like a trip down memory lane.
I had a 5-speed 89 Beretta GT with the 2.8L V6. My very first car, so I loved it, but I didn’t have quite as much luck as you with reliability.
On the way home from the dealership (brand new), the blinkers stopped working. Drove it back to the dealership and they replaced a fuse. On the way home the second time, the fuse blew again. They had to trace and fix a wiring fault that was causing it to short. Fixed under warrantee.
After a few months of ownership, I parked it at my apartment one day. Turned off the ignition and removed the key. Then I heard the engine still running! Huh? The key was out of the ignition! Another electrical problem … this one prevented the ignition from being turned off, even with the key out. Had to stop the engine by letting the clutch out with the brake on. Another problem fixed under warrantee.
On two different occasions the engine ECM died with no advance warning. So I was driving down the road happy one second, then coasting to a stop with a dead engine in traffic the next. Had to have the car towed to the dealer each time. I think one of those was fixed under warrantee.
On a third occasion, the engine again died with no advance warning. That was a fuel injector failure. Again towed to the dealership … this time to have two injectors replaced. Apparently one injector had been bad for a while, and when the second one failed, the ECM was programmed to just shut down the engine in that scenario.
Once after parking the car on a trip one day, I was walking away from the car and noticed the brake lights randomly go on and off a few times. Huh? Nobody was in the car! Was I on Candid Camera? Nope. Get back in the car to see if it will start, and it does. But now the radio is displaying gibberish. When I apply the brakes, the radio-gibberish changes and the interior lights come on. Blinkers don’t work either, but still have head lights, tail lights, and brake lights though, so I was able to drive it home and to the dealership. Another electrical problem that shorted some wires.
One winter day after work I walk out to my car in the parking lot. The back windows looks like it has frost on it, so I get ready to scrape it. It’s not frost … the entire rear window had spider web cracks, but none of it was broken. Apparently it just shattered from some internal stresses, since there was no obvious impact point, and none of it was broken. On my home from work, most of the shattered rear glass fell into the back seat.
One day my Mom was getting out of my car, and she said she was having problems opening the passenger door. Huh? I walked around the car, and the rear of the half-open door was sagging down by the ground! Huh? The upper door hinge pin had sheared off, so the entire door was hanging from the lower hinge. If that hinge had snapped, the door would have fallen off onto the parking lot. I lifted the door back into the opening and closed it. Another problem fixed by the dealer.
Other than these issues, it was a pretty great car. And I did like it. So much so, my second car was a `94 Grand Am coupe … virtually the same car/engine, but with a Pontiac logo. The Pontac was 100% rock-solid perfect.
July 25th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
N. Riley,
Oops, my bad. OK, Kent where are you and from whom did you buy your system?
Thanks,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
READ THIS REPLY…..WAKE UP PPL
I am still astounded at the people on this site who are clueless about the volt and the concept. I keep seeing people bringing up the 100 mile range on the ev-1……that means that you don’t understand the battery tech that was behind it. You don’t understand the cost of it. You don’t know what it means to place twice as much battery into a car. The range extender and 40 mile range is probably the most simplistic and brilliant idea the automotive industry has come up with in years. Also, for the prius lovers I have something to show you…..
1984 ford escort http://www.mpgomatic.com/2007/10/19/super-cheap-high-mpg-cars-1984/
Brand new Toyota Prius http://www.hybridcars.com/compacts-sedans/toyota-prius-overview.html
The 1984 ford escort got 40 miles per gallon….no hybrid technology, nothing special.
The toyota prius gets 48/45 and has to use a battery to do so…..I am sorry but stop all the downing of the American automotive industry. We can and have built efficient cars but up until the last couple of years that isn’t what the public wanted. We wanted power, fast, looks, and luxory. So, that is what GM, Ford, and Dodge gave us. Now, they are shifting gears and people are saying that the prius is so good when cars from 24 years ago are comparible in gas mileage……..GIVE IT UP.
The volt is the only car on the market to date that is attempting to make a true leap in technology. There are other electric cars but none of them are coming from a major company and none of them have the engineering going into them that the volt has. It’s simply a great idea. Pull through for me GM….I’m waiting.
July 25th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
God, this guy Carlson Ghosn sure is ugly!
I would never buy a pure EV. A PHEV with 40 mile all-electric range is perfect for me.
I really don’t know why pure EVs are so desirable. 80% of Americans drive 40 or less every day. Let’s go for the low hanging fruit first…
July 25th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
#116 Paul-R
I congratulate you for sticking with the car. I would have traded it in for another and I would have fussed with the dealer until I got a very good deal or tried to get a “lemon” taken back. Must have been one of those Monday morning built cars we always hear about.
July 25th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
everything imp
Well put, but no need to get too excited about everyone here being on the same page. I believe that most of us are better informed than the general public (we’re a self-selected population), but if everyone here was perfectly informed, there’d be little use for the site itself.
Off topic:
Does anyone know anything about the capabilities of the next generation of Prius?
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
#118 everything.imp
Agreed, agreed, agreed………
#121 Tagamet
I agree with you as well.
July 25th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
#121 Tagamet
Does anyone know anything about the capabilities of the next generation of Prius?”
Supposed to be longer by about 3 inches, 1 inch wider, but weigh less. Engine HP is improved as well as fuel economy. Other than that, that’s about all I remember. Oh, yea, supposed to be a little cheaper in price, so Toyota says. The hybrid package is supposed to be smaller in the engine cmpartment. Batteries are still the same type, but chance of Lithium in a later model The Prius name is to be added to several new hybrids in later years to develop a “family” of Priuses.
July 25th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Are those 1984 numbers real?
If so.. WTF happened..?
I realize styling changed, but I thought 1980’s cars were all boxy and ‘ugly’ by todays standards. Today they’re streamlined and round.. why is mileage half of what it was?
Or perhaps it was a very different testing process back then?
July 25th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
hi Stopcrasypp @90, You could be correct, but I will stick with the estimate of 700 to 1000 lbs for the 28 KWH battery pack for the Think.
Time will tell.
July 25th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Thanks for the Prius info.
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Tagamet,
I’m in the San Francisco Bay Area, more specifically, in the East Bay. I bought my system through SunStar Energy. You can find them at sunstarenergy.com.
To all the solar array critics…..I know that the cost is high, but if you own your own home, I really don’t understand why you can’t do what I did (see post #106), especially if you’re in California where you can get a rebate on the cost.
July 25th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
#106
Thats great ROI. However a few questions…
Do you live in a State/Area with High Solar Flux? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar_land_area.png
Did you (or the company) recieve Tax credits or Tax advantages (Ouside the Interest Free)?
Did you install the panels yourself? Or did the 20k include installation?
Have there been any major Storms (5 to 10 year events)?
Just curious, as Solar installation companies in my area are claiming 20-25 year payback periods without government assistance.
July 25th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Kent said…
“I really don’t understand why you can’t do what I did (see post #106), especially if you’re in California where you can get a rebate on the cost.”
Kent, as surprising as this may sound, not all of us can afford to BORROW that much. If the choice is between feeding the cats and paying off a solar array, I think the cats win.
Be well,
Tag
July 25th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
I’m with this guy, really. Having a range extender just adds more cost to the car. Also, more parts meaning more things can break down.
July 25th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
I’ll say it once again -
NEVER underestimate Range Anxiety!
BEV fans have different needs than most of us. The 100 mile range BEV fans seem to be happy limiting themselves to a self-made island 100 miles in diameter. They can travel up to 50 miles from the center of their “island” - no more - before they have to return to recharge. Like the Amish, they want to live a different lifestyle. If they can live with that unique lifestyle. I wish them well (as I do the Amish).
But I do ask of them one thing - just because you believe so fervently in BEV’s, don’t expect everyone to share your beliefs. I personally believe that range equals freedom, and I want all the range I can get. EREV’s suit me fine. But I will never say that BEV’s should be shelved over EREV’s. Both have their place.
July 25th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
#128 Steel: I live in the northern CA area, near the coast, so it’s usually nice and sunny here. Yes, I received a rebate from the California Public Utilities Commission of $3 per watt. I have a 4 kw system, so that was about a $12K rebate. The $20K I mentioned previously was my out-of-pocket (loan) cost. This cost was for a completely “turn-key” system. I did no work at all towards installation; it was entirely installed, with permits taken care of, by Sunstar Energy. In my part of CA, we hardly get any storms.
#129 Tagamet: I can certainly understand that not everyone can borrow like I did. I only meant that what I save in electric costs I pay towards a loan for 8-9 years. Even i