The Trials and Tribulations of Tesla
Tesla Motors has played a pivotal role in the electrification of the automobile. It was indeed their effort at producing an electric car that caught GM product czar Bob Lutz’ attention and helped push him to build the Chevy Volt. In Lutz’ own words “if some Silicon Valley startup can solve this equation, no one is going to tell me anymore that it’s unfeasible.”
This week’s edition of Fortune Magazine offers a rather detailed and honest look into the inner workings of Tesla and the difficulties they’ve had getting their first $100,000 electric Teslas off the assembly line, just in fact in recent weeks. So far seven cars have been built.
Some interesting points of the article follow.
Former CEO Martin Eberhard first conceived the car, and in 2004 got financial backing from Elon Musk who had co-founded and profited massively from the sale of PayPal. Musk’s initial investment of $6.4 million has by now gown unbridled into $55 million.
The car has 1000 customers on it’s wait list, only 30 have dropped out so far, and the rest are still patiently waiting for their cars which were supposed to have been delivered in 2007.
Eberhard realized the car wouldn’t be bought to save money on gas, but to make a statement. The drivetrain was actually designed and built by A/C Propulsions from whom Tesla licensed it, and the body was designed by Lotus. It was Eberhard’s idea to use lithium-ion batteries, 6,881 cells in fact, strung together that allows the car to do a scorching 3.6 second 0 to 60. The batteries life has only been tested to 40,000 miles.
Tesla’s corporate path involved considerable headbutting between Musk who is described as a bit of a control freak and Eberhard, eventually leading to the latter’s ouster in late 2007. This spawned Eberhard to write a bitter “Tesla Founders Blog,” which Tesla finally got him to cool off on.
Engineering-wise, the initia plan was for the car to top out at 125 mph. This, it turns out, requires a transmission with a second gear. Since Tesla couldn’t engineer this, the first cars had to go out with a top speed of 100 mph and a promise that a 2-speed transmission would go in when it became available, to prevent further delays.
Musk now has a new CEO and plans to build hundreds of Roadsters by the end of the year. He also hopes to have a more modestly performing $60,000 sedan called the Model S to market by 2010. It will be built in California’s bay area. It is clear Musk has aspirations to build a whole new car company from the ground up including a specialized dealership model.
The story is a well-written critical insight into the tremendous challenges of building an electric car and the trials and tribulations of Tesla.
It also implies the important advantage a company with the size, experience, and budget of GM has to meet this very daunting challenge.
Tesla or Volt, the choice is yours.
Source (Fortune Magazine)
Popularity: 7%
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July 16th, 2008 at 9:34 am
I choose Volt (at least in concept).
July 16th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Lyle posts “Tesla or Volt, the choice is yours.”
I’d like to have that choice, and some more along with it, such as iMiEV or Nissan or others. So far, nothing available. The Tesla is a beautiful car, as is the Volt Concept, so I hope whenever something materializes it will be likewise.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:44 am
I guess I’ve regressed now into thinking of Tesla and of Volt as concepts with beautiful aspirations that never became reality. With Volt, I will start thinking of it as a real car once again if, as, and when there is a battery contract. Until then, no battery contract = no Volt.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:56 am
The Tesla if I had the 100k, beautiful and sporty. Realistically I will have to lease a Volt because of the monthly payment. I like the way the new gm products look, but the roadster looks more like a dream car.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Thanks for mentioning this article, Lyle. It was very interesting and raised a question I wanted to ask about the Volt.
Reference was made in the article to the difficulties Tesla had finding a two-speed transmission. I wasn’t aware EREVs needed a transmission, and thought that from a mechanical standpoint, they were less complicated than standard ICE-powered vehicles. My questions are:
- Will the Volt have a transmission, and if so, what does it do?
- If it has one, does this mean that it will have the same maintenance cycle as an ICE-powered vehicle?
- Am I incorrect in assuming that the Volt will not be mechanically “simpler” than ICE-powered vehicles.
Thanks.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Very interesting article. I knew there were delays, but I wasn’t aware that only 7 were produced.
But, apparently, it isn’t as easy as it would seem to get this stuff right the first time.
I wonder if the media will be as forgiving if GM has such delays with the Volt?
July 16th, 2008 at 10:05 am
The drivetrain was NOT actually designed and built by A/C Propulsions.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:07 am
This story could be written about any startup. It’s just the way things are. The last line of the article sums it up:
“Startups, after all, are always chaotic. The people who found them are often arrogant or overbearing or both. But in a way Musk was right: The bumps along the road are forgettable, as long as the car isn’t.”
The one thing I’ve always thought is that GM is more likely than Tesla to hit their deadlines because they have established processes on how to build a car. The Volt is also less likely to have manufacturing problems as well. And of course have fewer innovations for the simple reason that more innovations means using unproven technology. But I’ve always been more confident in GM’s dates than the dates you get from Tesla or Aptera or VentureVehicles. Experience is helpful in setting up your timeframe, which is why I’ve never understood the gloom and doom expressed here when GM came up with their production numbers. The numbers may disappointing but you can have confidence in them — and a first year run of 50, 000 Volts as opposed to 10, 000 isn’t going to make that big of a difference in effecting oil demand destruction. This is a ten year not ten month campaign.
I will say that Lyle’s comment about the choice being between the Tesla and Volt isn’t very on point. The high end Volt is the Fisker Karma - Lutz obviously thinks this car is pretty cool. The low end is the Th!nk, Aptera, or i-Miev. The Prius and the new Honda hybrid are direct competition though the Volt is still unique.
Go GM. Go Volt. (And Prius, Aptera, i-Miev, Tesla, Fisker …).
July 16th, 2008 at 10:09 am
$55 million to develop a radically different car? And how much for the Volt? $1 billion? If they pull this off, it will be a fantastic achievement.
I had always seen Mr. Musk as sort of a super rich guy piddling away part of his fortune on a hobby business until you did your brilliant piece on him the other day.
We are getting numerous mail pieces from Solar City, touting a new financing model for home solar installations. Who knew he was involved in that, until your report. Frankly, I was round filing them with the rest of the junk mail, but maybe I’ll pay more attention to the next one.
This guy is a force to be reckoned with. Do not sell him short.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Lotus didn’t design the body. Tesla motors did. The Tesla roadster only shares 7% of its parts with the Lotus Elise. In comparison, Lamborghini cars share over 10% of their parts with Audi cars.
Source: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog3/?p=74
July 16th, 2008 at 10:26 am
As a regular guy with a regular car budget I’ll choose the volt ($30-$35K Range), but the day I win the lottery I’ll buy a roadster. Or better yet I’ll have Tesla convert my VW Vanagon to get me going 0 - 60 in 3.6 seconds. I better write my will as soon as I win the lottery
July 16th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Newsweek interview included statement that a 10 X 15 solar set up will provide 200 to 400 miles of driving per week . If correct , that is the most exciting news I ‘ ve had in a long time and very welcome THIS week !
July 16th, 2008 at 10:33 am
“Tesla or Volt, the choice is yours”.
There’s not really much of a choice between these two since most people can’t afford the $100K Tesla. Even if they make the $60K sedan, it’s still out of range for most people (remember how many people on this site complained of the Volt going to $40K?).
I still want a Volt, but everyday I’m less optimistic. I only hope that Toyota, Honda, Subaru and Mitsubishi can come through with an EV I like and can afford.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:34 am
I’m with you DonC,
I think the Volt will be a more polished car than the Tesla. And It’ll cost less. Its being engineered by some of the best “car” guys in the business. I bet its hard for powertrain engineers to get the fit and finish on a fender right.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:34 am
#9 Noel park
I think that is the story here. They got a cheque for a few million in 2004. Started things rolling in 2005 and in three years have managed to design and produce actual vehicles. Even got by that pesking ‘crash safety standards’ thing with some fancy footwork.
That being said the company is vastly underfunded, were it not for the ownership being ‘professional showmen’ I’m sure it would have folded up long before it came to market.
The Whitestar (or Model S…whatever) is not just ‘the next car,’ it is the ‘next opportunity’ to raise capital from investors who want to see a ‘plan to profitability,’ The original wave was just to back a electric sports cars…period. Tesla is very much on shakey ground, if they can pull off the financing in this very tricky market, they are financial savantes. They are running out the roadsters saying, “Here, we can do it. Now we are going to go bigtime, money please”
Side note: Production of Roadsters.
The addition of the drivetrain is done in a little warehouse in Menlo Park with only a couple hoists (they are delivered as gliders). There are currently 4 cars delivered (4th today), 5 other cars awaiting transmissions in Menlo and a further 18 cars currently being assembled in England by Lotus.
The new transmissions/upgraded engines are ’scheduled’ for September, which also co-incides with their goal to push out 100 per month by year end, which is impossible from their current facility. No word/plans on a new facility…so I think you can see where I am headed with this one.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:37 am
The other thing that struck me is the amount of problems and delays that the difference between 100 mph and 125 mph has caused, requiring a second gear!
Is that really a deal breaker for this car, or is it somebody’s ego?
July 16th, 2008 at 11:03 am
#16 George K
People who buy a Tesla aren’t buying a car they’re buying status. So yes, 125 mph is important. A deal breaker? Probably not but the Fisker looks cooler, so if the top speeds are the same …
Of course, to your point, if you’re buying a car for transportation it’s irrelevant.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:09 am
#16, George,
If you are asking people to pony up $100K for a roadster, it better perform well, and top speed is a parameter you can’t neglect.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:10 am
#5. Tesla needed a 2 - speed in order to get the top end speed they desired coupled with the 0-60 performance. Volt won’t be shooting for those types of numbers so I assume a simple 1 speed transmission…..assuming that’s even a transmission as we think of it. I’m not knowledgeable enough to answer that.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:14 am
#19, Jerome,
I believe a single gear transmission is known simply as a reduction gear.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:15 am
#5
“- Will the Volt have a transmission, and if so, what does it do?
- If it has one, does this mean that it will have the same maintenance cycle as an ICE-powered vehicle?
- Am I incorrect in assuming that the Volt will not be mechanically “simpler” than ICE-powered vehicles.”
The reason the Tesla needs a 2 speed transmission is because the max speed of the electric motor isnt high enough to turn the wheels to go at 125mph which is their goal. Their original 1 speed can only go up to 100mph, so they need to switch gears to be able to go to 125mph.
Im not sure what the target speed for the volt was but from what I have seen the volt is going to use a 1 speed gearbox. There wont be any shifting of gears, which is a lot more complex then just one speed. I think that the Volts gearbox is suposed to be maintinance free for the most part, unlike the manual and automatic transmissions in our cars today.
You are right that the volt is going to be more mechanicaly simpler then our current cars. The main difference is you dont have a engine connected directly to the wheels/pavement. Electric motors are much easier because they dont have to always be running between a certain RPM range, you can go at any RPM you want.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Hot off the press. Here’s yet another lawsuit for Tesla, this one filed by a former employee. You always run the risk of this type of problem when the testoserone start-up guys are in charge, especially given CA labor laws. Lawsuits like this can be a huge distraction. Seems like adult supervision is still needed.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/07/15/tesla-on-the-receiving-end-of-another-lawsuit-this-time-from-ex/
July 16th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Tesla’s roadster could very well be called the most completely niche, impractical car ever built. There’s only one place such a car could find many buyers : Hollywood California with its preposterously overpaid and mediocre acting pool of “stars” desperate to greenwash their image. Unfortunately for Tesla, their idea back then to copy the Volt design obviously ran into a brick wall - they simply don’t have any engineering capability and neither do the companies who actually designed and built their roadster. So they are now back to square one and will produce yet another impractical
BEV, this one cheaper, slower and uglier, but with its same inability to escape from “nicheness.” I see that Fisker has contracted with the firsm that builds the Boxster for Porsche to build their fairly
close copy of the Volt design and claim it will hit the streeets late
2009. When it does, you can mark the moment as the same moment that the Tesla lost the electrified , highly priced sporty car war. The Tesla simply cannot remotely compete with the Fisker Karma. No wonder they spent so many legal dollars on their threadbare lawsuit against Fisker. It’s good to see logic and brains finally combined with beauty. It was the brains and logic part that Tesla so desperately lacked, which is quite amusing, since its younger generation boosters really believed that Silicon Valley would be able to invent a solution to anything. Problem is, our computer business has left the country for Asia and Silicon Valley is almost a ghost town. And we’re still waiting for a practical battery, which is what one would think might logically be within the realm of the electronic computer business’s capabilities. Apparently not.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:30 am
I’m afraid your digest of the article misstated some points.
The original design had a single speed transmission and motor that would have given a top speed of about 100mph. Elon Musk insisted on the 125mph top speed, which required the two speed transmission. The motor and drive electronics could not reach the higher speed. It turns out that designing a quick shifting, durable transmission that can handle the motor’s torque is harder than it looked. Since then, drive electronics components have become available that make 125mph with a single speed transmission possible.
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog4/?p=67
It’s hard to tell when a change is crucial to the product’s success or just feeping creatureism.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:31 am
Better go all-in the market, Staitek, your missing bottom!
ooops, was that off-topic?
July 16th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Wonder how many miles per charge the Model S will be going. Also, if it is a compact car, how much room is there.
At 60K, I can’t afford compromises, but I would much rather support a BEV over one that still promotes oil changes, gasoline, transmission flushes and the sort even if the finances prove better with the ICE car.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:59 am
From what I have read the volt should not need a two speed transmission. The only reason to have a a 2 speed transmittion is to give more top end speed. The transmission in cars today are not really beefy enough to handle the electric motors. Put a regular transmition on an electric car and if a lead footed driver drives it the transmission wont last long.
I would be outright shocked if the Volt had a two speed transmission.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
i loved the part about the solar panal roof…
go toyota… way to put something stupid on your prius
July 16th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
There’s a lot of errors in that Tesla information.
- The yet-to-come transmission will be single speed, not two speed which was the original.
- 0-60 time is 3.9 seconds.
- Lotus manufactures their body, didn’t design it… Although a previous Lotus design was the starting point, it got a big overhaul by Tesla.
- The number of cells is incorrect (I can’t remember the exact number, it’s in the 6,000’s but not what’s stated.
Not trying to be nit-picky here, just want to dispel mis-truths.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
If only I had the money. 100 MPH is fast enough for me.
3.6 seconds 0-60 is nice, but I would enjoy it even faster.
Tesla made a beautiful roadster. Too bad I won’t spend the money buying it. I’m just way to cheap for that.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Big companies just hate it when those pesky entrepreneurs have the cajones to take the risks and do things that “the experts” say can’t be done. That’s probably the best part of being an entrepreneur. It’s a rebellious thing. It’s cool. It’s fun. It’s what makes America great. We’re always trying to break new ground … trying to confound “the experts” … searching for that new frontier just over the next hill.
The “authorities” of their time (in the 1400s in Europe) probably told Christopher Columbus that if he kept sailing West he’d fall off the edge of the earth … the Earth was flat you know … sea monsters out there too.
Explorers and entrepreneurs just love to commit their creative “heresies” and shake up the status quo. Read up on Galileo. They put him in jail for saying the Earth revolved around the Sun instead of the other way around. They called it a crime against the church or something … heresy.
It’s a good thing that we have entrepreneurs like the Tesla founders and all the battery scientists and engineers who have been toiling in their labs all these years to bring these new electric cars to the world. I’m sure that’s a big reason why they named the company Tesla. Nicola Tesla was definitely a bold entrepreneur. A very creative kind of guy with the scientific analytical brainpower to make those dreams real … a lot of them anyway.
He shook up the world in his day for sure by inventing A/C electricity and a bunch of other things. Here’s another article about Tesla from Newsweek.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/145876/page/1
I like what Elon Musk says about us driving pure electric cars within the next 30 years. I agree with him. It might even happen within 20 years if the worldwide scientific community gets super focused on battery technologies.
In the meantime, we’ll have to have “range extenders” like the IC engine for the Volt. I’m looking forward to the day GM builds a future Volt 4.0 that gets 300+ miles of range, quick charges in 15 minutes, NO range extender, etc. We’ll get there. Who knows how long it will take. We just have to go through this ER-EV stage first like former Intel CEO Andy Grove said in his article in “The American” online magazine. I think Volt 1.0 is still going to be a very impressive car even though later versions will be better.
Good thing GM has people like Bob Lutz. He has that entrepreneurial spirit to try to make things happen … new, groundbreaking things like the Volt. It was Bob Lutz who had the guts to shake things up at GM to get the Volt project going. They say he had “batteries on the brain” when he came from his last job at a battery company. GM hiring Bob Lutz looks like the best thing they’ve done in a long time. GM needs more people like him in the years to come.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
The thing to remember is Tesla is not only building a car, they are also building a car company. There are going to be bumps in the road as there is with any endeavor. With the complexity of today’s cars there are a lot more bumps. Gone are the days of the Tin Lizzy where you could count the number wires in the car on one hand.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Some additional information on 2 speed tranny’s can be found on the killa cycle website. Its an all electric Drag bike that broke the 1/4 mile 8sec barrier by adding a 2speed tranny.
Google killacycle..another neat all electric vehicle
July 16th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Site with hardcore engineering data on electric motors. Torque as a function of RPM is about 2/3 of the way down.
http://www.reliance.com/mtr/mtrthrmn.htm
DC motors produce maximum torque at very low RPM’s which makes them ideal for transportation because this is when its needed most. They continue to produce it at a range much larger than gas engines. Therefore, you can get away from using transmissions and only have a reduction gear.
This page doesn’t chart efficiency but, just like gas engines, motors of a sweet spot of efficiency. The reduction gear will probably place this sweet spot at 55 mph or so, depending on how big the sweet spot is.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
#21 - Cire: Thanks for the detailed explanation. I’m relieved to know that things like “transmission fluid checks, etc.” will be a thing of the past.
If the car is mechanically less complex, this should significantly reduce overall lifecycle maintenance costs. Too bad we don’t yet have enough information to model, say, 10-year ownership costs. Even though the initial capital cost - whatever it is - will be high, my guess is that the Volt will compare favorably with Gen-3 Prius, Honda Hybrid and similar vehicles when total cost of ownership is considered at a driving rate of 10,000 miles/year.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
I have been watching the development of the Tesla closely especially the controversy of the 2 speed vs. single speed design. As I understand now, Tesla has been able to engineer a single speed “gearbox” (what I like to call a single speed transmission), that meets most the original design goals.
That said I would still prefer a 2 speed design on the volt.
Yes, the Tesla is a performance car, and the volt isn’t, but the Tesla has a lot of advantages making a single speed gearbox a more viable option.
The Tesla is designed around the lotus platform, and is far lighter than then volt will be. I believe Tesla even with batteries tips just around 2600 lbs. The Tesla has a far more powerful electric motor. The Tesla has a more powerful batterypack. The Tesla has recently had its electronics upgraded so it could provide that electric motor with a burst of extra current needed to get a single speed motor turning with enough torque to compensate for losing the additional gear.
Perhaps GM can get 0-60 times out of the volt of apx 8.5 seconds with its less power, higher weight, smaller battery, but I’m conifendent they can do it easier with a 2 speed transmission, that would not tax the electric motor, electronics, and battery to the same degree.
And there is one thing GM has that the starts ups don’t… close partners in industry that build transmissions. Something designed for an electric motor will be simpler on the long run, but it’s not to say that some new thinking should not be applied to tailor itself for the different needs of an electric car, not the least of which is gear train losses.
Bottom line, I do not think Tesla had the resources to do a transmission right, and they made the right move to work around it. GM does have the resources to do it right, and I’m interested to see what they decide to do.
Just my humble opinion
July 16th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Lyle,
“Tesla or Volt, the choice is yours.”
The choice may be mine, but the timing and pricing is theirs. I can’t afford or wait for either of these two cars. Hopefully a bright future awaits the manufacturer of both of these cars. I hope for the day when the automobile will be freed from an internal combustion engine.
Until then, I wait like the masses that the Chevy Volt was designed to sell to, but now will only be sold to those who want to make a statement or can afford such a steep price.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Attention all cagers:
For around $11k you can get a vehicle that will go 0-60 in 2.6 seconds and has top-end around 186mph and gets ~40mpg. And there are more than 10 makes and models to choose from. They are called motorcycles, more specifically sport bikes.
Ever here about the KillaCycle, an all-electric bike that goes 0-168mph in 7.82 seconds. BTW, this bike is powered by A123 Systems Lithium batteries.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
I would get tesla for 60k any time. Can’t afford 109K thought. But don’t worry guys. Soon Chineese will steel the technology and will sell it for food. Just like they did with iPhone. I bet they allready on it… Go Chineese!
July 16th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
If Tesla doesn’t make it down their rocky road to success, they will still have an enduring place in automotive history, for breaking the “Lithium barrier” and forcing GM to consider a project which became the Volt.
GM also faces a rocky road, and even if they go down swinging, they will still have enabled a new age in automotive history, and deserve even more historical note: Without the Volt, would we have ever seen the conservative Toyota reverse itself on lithium ion batteries for cars?
Someone will build a Volt-like car, probably several someones (and hopefully GM will be among them).
When the battery companies rise to the needs of automakers, won’t this lead to a thriving business in conversions / startups?
Consider the difficulties that Tesla is facing, trying to get a whole car company off the ground. What if a future company can buy off-the-shelf Li-ion batteries/motors/controllers and put them into something they’ve fabbed over a standard chassis? It could look a lot like a customized chopper operation: much smaller scale, wildly divergent styling.
statik is fond of pointing out that the mechanical simplification that electric vehicles represent could see a lot of manufacturers getting into the business (such as toy makers) who otherwise wouldn’t (”Toy-Auto“?). That could include much smaller businesses.
We’re all pretty gloomy about the Volt these days, but even if the worst happens, GM has made an indelible contribution.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
ATTN BOB LUTZ:
There was an old car-man named Lutz,
Who treehuggers oft called a putz,
But not such a dolt,
He came out with the Volt,
And saved GM’s rep with his guts !
I hope it got a smile in these trying times.
Be well,
Tag
/cross posted last thread
July 16th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Looking at all the speed bumps Tesla ran into developing the car, it’s not surprising that GM is taking a while to do the Volt.
There are the people on this site saying that GM should just build the Volt NOW, NOW, NOW. If GM did, and it turned out to be a bomb, everyone would be bashing GM for releasing an untested, unreliable, crappy car. Take your time GM and do it right, with no band-aid solutions to get the first ones out the door. This is the chance for GM to create a new reputation of building the world’s finest and most innovative cars.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Tesla or Volt, the choice is yours.
I choose the Volt. The life cycle cost for the Tesla is too high. The purchase price of the Tesla is about 3 times the projected price of the VOLT after government rebates. The maintenance cost of the Tesla will be dominated by its battery depreciation of over 20¢ per mile.
The Tesla battery pack is composed of 6,831 off-the-shelf cylindrical 18650-format Li-ion cells that are typically used in laptops. These cells are custom packaged by Tesla to prevent any of the types of thermal incidences that laptop batteries have experienced. This pack design is complex and costly but it does obviate Tesla’s (but not my) concerns about supply and the need for secondary suppliers.
Apart from thermal issues, laptop batteries are not high powered (low kW per kg), have a low (500) cycle life and may have a low calendar life (< 5 years). A high depth of discharge would reduce the expected cycle life. With the 220 mile range of the Tesla, every 100,000 miles or 5 years, the custom battery pack would need to be changed at a cost of over $20,000.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
I hope Tesla succeeds in creating an EV for the masses…competition for, among, and between American companies never hurt the consumer.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
If they can produce that sweet little roadster in numbers and the car turns out to be good, they’ve got a winner amongst the deeper pocketed auto crowd. But like so many startup small auto companies, Delorean comes to mind, they just can’t seem to solve the mass production and balance sheet problems.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Dave B #44
You can rest assured that there will be lots of competition for lower end EV’s. It’s a good idea whose time has come. Think positively, its going to happen.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
GM Volt Fan #31
This is at once OT and at once perfectly on point:
“The “authorities” of their time (in the 1400s in Europe) probably told Christopher Columbus that if he kept sailing West he’d fall off the edge of the earth … the Earth was flat you know … sea monsters out there too.”
Actually the “world is flat” stuff is a myth. The Greeks knew the world was round not flat, and in fact a Greek mathematicia, Eratosthenes, calculated the size of the earth to within twenty feet or so in the second century CE.
The “experts” of the 15th Century knew of this work. They knew the world was round and they also knew how far Asia was from Europe. Their reason for predicting disaster for Columbus was based on his running out of water and provisions before he managed to get there. In this they were absolutely correct — there is no way Columbus could have gotten to Asia by sailing West.
Of course no one knew of the land mass we call the Americas. So the experts were absolutely correct, they just didn’t know everything. Columbus got lucky and, as we all know, better lucky than good.
Which is sometimes the real story of startups. Same in some ways with the Volt. The Volt couldn’t be possible without the EV-1. And the EV-1 was really forced on GM by the Peoples Republic of California and its zero emission rules. If the Volt and similar vehicles turn out to be the huge hit for GM I think they’re going to be, it will be more luck than foresight. Just like Columbus.
July 16th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
#15 Statik:
I hear you. History is littered with the bones of people who tried to start their own car companies. I have rattled off long lists here in the past, maybe even in the context of Tesla. Delorean, Bricklin, Mad Man Muntz, Tucker, Kaiser, Fraser, Packard, Hudson, Nash (AMC), it never ends. Many of them much better financed than Tesla. And run by “car guys” who should have known better. Maybe even such icons as GM, Ford and Chrysler, for all we know.
Even so, you gotta love the guy’s vision. Couple an innovative solar power generation business with a pioneering electric car business, and you sure have a huge vision, whether it prospers or crashes in flames.
As I mentioned yesterday, have you noticed Mr. Musk’s rocket booster business? I laughed at that too, but they do have a contract with the US Gummint to launch satellites, so who knows?
July 16th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
We should all be rooting for Tesla to succeed… and Phoenix Motorcars, and Aptera as well as Honda, Mitsubishi, Toyota, GM, BMW, Mercedes, Ford, Chrysler, or any other carmaker that goes down the electric or hybrid/electric path. What is important is that they do become a success. If only half of the personal autos are replaced with electric power, the impact would be enormous. Gasoline power will always be around for trucks, trains and planes so the oil companies will continue to make their billions in profits. But I believe the average person is more than willing to go hybrid or electric as long as the vehicle is affordable, stylish and fun. And since “affordable” is in the wallet of the beholder, there will definitely be a need for a $20K electric, a $100K electric, and many others in between. GO TESLA! GO GM!
July 16th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
The ZAP graphic at the bottom of this page looks sharp. But I don’t see that particular vehicle on their web-site. Most of their vehicles are 3 wheeled. That is not for me.
I take it back, I went to look again and it does show up there. Body by Lotus and priced at $60,000 and available in 2010. Oh, well………..
July 16th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
You know, this whole “new” electric car thing is great and all, but in reality, how many Americans actually buy a new car off the dealer lot. I did once and learned my lesson on losing money.
Now, if someone actually wanted to hit a huge market, they would start up a company that sold Electric Motor conversions for existing vehicles. This would have to be a kit that was available for around $4-8k depending on horsepower. It would require a minimum of work to install it. It would need to be reliable and charge quickly. It would also need to have the option of installing an ICE generator (Range Extender). The batteries would also need to take up a minimum amount of space in the vehicle of choice.
The pickup and SUV market could be ideal to target due to their size. A battery “pack” could easily fit in place of the 40 gal gas tank. A motor, controls, and generator should fit perfectly under the hood after removing the giant chunk of cast iron in there already. If the vehicle had a manual trans, even better, that would give you a higher top speed.
So, if anyone (Jay Leno) has a couple of million $$ lying around, let me know. We could start a very lucrative business.
Of course, now that I’ve given away my idea, someone will do it without me. Oh well, as long as someone does it, I’d still be happy.
Oh ya, and it would remove all the old “gross” polluters from the road.
July 16th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
#40
I agree…Toyota only needs to release new tech incrementally with their dominance of the hybrid market. It is the same strategy of the electronics industry…maximize profits with incremental improvements. Why fund a risky “leapfrog” product when little or no risk is required to realize a profit?
It took Toyota years to gain the consumer’s trust in their hybrid vehicles. Why? because a new vehicle is a major purchase and a necessity for most folks…unlike electronics. How long will it take GM? Especially after numerous comments that hybrids are a “stop gap” tech. The opposite of expressing a long term comittment to the tech. By my calculations, we are more than 2 lustrums (just 8 years in the US) into the so-called “stop gap” period of hybrids.
Does anyone know the length of a “stop gap” period?
fortnight=14 days, season=3 months, lustrum=5 years, decade=10 years, score(of Gettysburg Address fame)=20 years
July 16th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
#51 dodahman
You make a great point. In fact there is more to be gained by increasing the mileage on gas guzzlers than on already fuel effecient vehicles.
There is something very much along the lines you are suggesting. The company is Poulsen Electric and the product is the Poulsen Hybrid. A couple of hub motors and a battery pack:
http://www.poulsenhybrid.com/index.html
July 16th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
You must give credit to Tesla as forward thinking pioneers that were willing to stick their neck out on a new concept. I am for Volt because I think GM can swing it; however, let’s face it, GM hung with the SUVs and trucks until the horns fell off. Let’s face it, Tesla is speculation. I am 100% Volt because I think it is vital to the American auto industry and what is good for America is good for me. Go Gm…….
July 16th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
#40 Jackson
“Statik is fond of pointing out that the mechanical simplification that electric vehicles represent could see a lot of manufacturers getting into the business (such as toy makers) who otherwise wouldn’t (”Toy-Auto“?). That could include much smaller businesses.”
Wow, I was posting that ages ago. You made my day. I think that is the real truth behind the electric vehicle. I like to say, “It’s the battery, stupid.” It didn’t get much traction so I kind of let that line of thinking slip away.
I think all “big auto” knows it too when they are making these things.
How can engineers not sit down and realize it?
“Hey, if these batteries do become available and cheap…what stops any little “toy shop” in China or India from slapping a battery and electric motor onto a Tata frame and pushing out a $10,000 all EV, 0-60 in 5 second car?”
Once the battery is available I honestly don’t know how any car company can surivive….at least not in the way we know them today. How can you market “high performance” sports cars/sedans/luxury cars like they do now… when EVs are simple, cheap and easily instant massive speed death traps by default? Don’t get me started on the potential of ‘caps’ for ’speed bursts’ on 0-60s, 1/4 miles.
Case in point. My wife on nice days now rides a electric scooter to work, or to go to a friends place, whatever. Cheap little thing with a seat. The thing flys too. It goes about 40km/hr (about 25 MPH) and runs about a hour before it’s tapped. Cost? 200 bucks. Ridiculous!
It’s like a toy…no it is a toy, but she loves it…and it probably saves $100+ in gas a month from May to October. (I myself have to much self-absorbtion to zip around on a scooter…a little too dorky for my liking, although I confess to taking it out for a spin now and then).
July 16th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
That’s great and all but in the end, it’s still a hybrid. The ICE is still intact and still pumps out the pollution.
What I am proposing is completely removing the existing ICE and creating a machined bell-housing adaptor that will allow you to bolt on any size electric motor and utilize the existing drive train. The control systems already exist. They would just need to be sourced.
This would create a completely “Plug-In” Electric vehicle. The only reason you would need a generator would be if you needed to drive an extended distance. You wouldn’t even need it for commuting.
Just think of all that room on the roof of a Suburban, Excursion, or Hummer that could be lined with solar cells to charge your batteries all day while it is parked at your office. Now were talking. We could turn all the Hummers into the greenest vehicles on the planet.
Instead of the environmental wackos defacing Hummer dealerships, it will be Dick Cheney & the Exxon-Mobile wackos.
(You could even run your generator on Moonshine.)
ps.
GM should wise up and use this perfect opportunity to “green-up” the Hummer brand instead of selling it.
July 16th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
#40 I’m glad you brought up the possibility of new businesses in the conversion market. I see that as a real opportunity for small auto mechanic shops converting cars to electric motors as an extension of their services. A localized opportunity to meet the needs of many people who want their collectible or late model cars converted. I have a Ford Focus that is a perfect commute car. It would be great as an electric. With the Tesla, the Fisker Karma, the Chevy Volt, and all the other US manufacturers, i can’t help but to feel optimistic that we can offer the world a better way in transportation.
July 16th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
#9 noel park
Actually, per the article total amount of Tesla capital raised is $145 million, making Musk the largest shareholder at 38%.
#52 Jeff
At current rate of accelerated change (re. Future Shock), a “stop gap” cycle is probably around 30 years.
July 16th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
#25 Jim D
“Better go all-in the market, Staitek, your missing bottom! ooops, was that off-topic?”
Are you serious? Because of a up day? I’m going to assume you are kidding, but I’ll throw some platitudes your way just incase.
Markets don’t go all up or all down. You don’t know what tomorrow will hold. Merrill and Citigroup could obliterate all of today’s action in mere minutes and push the entire sector into shock. Here is a handsome graph to give you a refresher on the year so far on the S&P:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC
Nobody tries to time the bottom…I don’t want to. I want to see a base then re-enter when the trendline is up.
Press releases from this afternoon–does this sound like a bottom to you:
“SoCal home prices drop 29.3 percent in June. The median price for new and resale homes and condominiums stood at $355,000 last month in a six-county region, down from $502,000 in June 2007.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080716/california_homes.html
Or this?
Consumer prices surge in June at 2nd fastest pace in 26 years, reflecting soaring energy costs
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080716/economy.html
Or this?
FBI investigating possible home-loan fraud at IndyMac Bancorp.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080716/mortgage_investigation.html
Or this?
“…hundreds of people who have crowded outside IndyMac Bank branches across Southern California this week, many waiting hours in line to withdraw their funds from the failing bank that was seized by federal regulators”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080716/indymac_customers.html?.v=2
Or this?
Merrill to sell Bloomberg stake for $4.5 bln: “…to raise capital to make up for write-downs…analysts estimate that the third-largest U.S. investment bank will record write-downs of up to $6 billion”
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080716/merrill_bloomberg.html
/thats just from today
(And it’s spelled S-T-A-T-I-K)
July 16th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
ive been a few websites tho the last few months detailing there conversion kits.. ive also seen a few local auto shops going from muscle car .. to electric conversions as a wave of the future..+ ive been a witness to a few trucks and cars that u dont hear comming cuz they r so quiet with.. an ev motor in it .
gm tesela honda toyota the rest better realize if they wont do it.. WE already ARE
soo if u want to stay in buisness past a few years u better get ur ass in gear .. WE arent standing still
July 16th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
#41 Tag
Nice limerick.
Maybe we’ll live long enough to say “I remember when that happened.”
July 16th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
#60 Jeremy
Who are “WE”?
July 16th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
#56
“GM should wise up and use this perfect opportunity to “green-up” the Hummer brand instead of selling it.”
They can do it today. The hummer sure has a loooooooooot of space to cram in some NiMH batteries (which are available now) and they could have an electric hummer with 0 R&D.
(ok.. just a little, to get the electric motor + transmission connection figured out.)
And until someone said it, I never really though of how massive trucks/suv gas tanks are. They sure suck back the gas…
“standard” car tank is 14gal (55L).. 40gal is almost 3x that, and they often travel less distance than the car does on 14gal.
July 16th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
RB@61
Thanks, I was beginning to think that no one read it.
Be well,
Tag
July 16th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Funny,
You may all be right,
Like the PC the way forward isnt traditional large suppliers but a huge enthusiast market spuring parts manufacturers.
You bring tears to my eyes, but mostly from laughing.
Vive la revolution!
July 16th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Hi Dodahman,
Here’s a company that does electric conversions that are similar to what you were describing:
http://www.lionev.com/
The “DIY Ranger” tab contains some very detailed and interesting info on how they do it.
July 16th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
There are conversion kits. For the DC motor type they run 4k to 6k without batteries. The batteries for twenty miles or so are a bunch of the deep cycle marine batteries. You can do old VW chassis kit cars and small pickups, and a few compact cars. After that you gotta build the adapter plate.
To buy enough A123 batteries to make a battery that would run 80 miles is going to run about 10k if I haven’t screwed the math up. The DeWalt batteries are going for about $100 on Ebay and each battery has 10 of the 2.3 amphour cells in it. You have to add the labor which will be a lot for the battery unless you can somehow use the batteries as they come packaged, they have the ballance taps on them in the DeWalt packs. You can probably pull about 20 amps at 32 volts from a pack, but you would need to stack them to at least 64 volts (96 would be better) and parallel them to get range. Then there is the charging problem. Each cell needs to be charged and monitored independently. Yes the battery is the problem. Google electric car conversion and you will find a lot of stuff.
The best suggestion I have seen so far is to buy one that someone has done. Some of these guys can’t wait to sell their last creation to fund the next.
July 16th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
“- Will the Volt have a transmission, and if so, what does it do?”
_______________________________________________
I don’t believe it will need a transmission. GM can use an ac electronic motor controller that can change the rpm of a motor with very little lost of torque It does this by increasing or decreasing the frequency cycle rather than changing the voltage that goes to the motor. This frequency change, in effect, varies the speed of the motor. Of course the battery power has to be changed to ac voltage before this can be done.
If the range of the rpm is not quite what they need, GM could use a range transmission which is much lighter than an ordinary transmission.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
Tesla only needed the transmission because the motor maxed out before getting to the top speed - not in terms of “it couldnt pull it” but it couldnt spin fast enough.
Think of a (don’t know the exact term) bike with the wheel and pedals attached straight (single gear?) when you pedal, the wheel spins, simple as that.
The faster you pedal, the faster it goes.
That’s the electric motor currently.
But once you get to 30mph (just figuratively) you’d be pedalling so fast, you can’t make the bike go any faster.
By throwing in a second gear, each time you pedal, it is having more of an effect on the speed of the bike, allowing you to speed up more with less spinning of the legs.
Its like an 18-spd (or whatever # spd) bike - if you pedal on gear 1, you’re spinning your legs like crazy and barely going anywhere. If you pedal on gear 18, its realllllllllllly hard to get started, but once you’re moving, it takes much less pedalling to maintain that speed.
The volt only needs one gear because its not going to be a sports car with massive top speed - the electric engine doesn’t mind spinning at whatever rate, it doesnt tire out like a human does on a bicycle.
However, once the motor reaches its max rpm, you need a gear change to go faster.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Gee, Tesla or volt - my choice? Not much of a choice, as they both are currently vaporware. Where do you walk in and buy one? Nowhere.
Even if they were available today, how many of you would actually sign the contract to buy one? Bear in mind that a Volt priced at just over $40,000.00, with no down payment and no trade, would put your monthly payment at just shy of $800.00 a month, assuming a 5% interest rate. How many of you can afford $800.00 a month? How many of you actually HAVE $10,000.00 or $20,000.00 down, to reduce the monthly payment to just under $600.00 /$400.00 a month? How much will the dealer really give you for that old clunker you drive?
It’s one thing to say “I want a Volt. I want a Volt. I want a Volt!” It’s quite another to see how little money you have after the car payment for food, gas, bills, etc. I wonder how many posters here will chicken out when faced with the true cost of the Volt, and how poor they will be afterward. $800.00 a month is a lot of money.
Why do I say this? Because Maximum Bob seems to be hell-bent on sticking us with the R + D costs of the Volt. How can he do otherwise - GM has one foot in the grave, and the other on a banana peel. But I think he, and we, have underestimated how many people can seriously afford the Volt, at uncomfortably over $40,000.00.
The Volt will compete with the Prius and the Civic Hybrid (available now, not years from now). Both priced very comfortably under $30,000.00. Let’s see, $23,000 for a Civic hybrid, or $42,000 for a Volt. Or $400.00 a month versus $800.00 a month. Guess which one most people with morgage payments, credit card bills, property taxes, water and sewer bills, half a dozen other bills, and kids to raise will pick.
Reality tends to be unpleasant. We may have to endure being jerked around by Bob Lutz for now, but when the Volt rolls out at $42,000, I think Bob will be the one who will be jerked around - by reality. Cost is VERY important. Sorry to rain on the Volt parade, but the Volt must compete or die the death of a niche vehicle - if GM can build it before it goes bankrupt.
You can break out the flaming torches and pitchforks, and form an angry mob now.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
well put grumps.. and the WE i was talkin about are people that dont got coushy jobs and such the ones that can only aford like 20kish or less thats a huge segment and we are traditionally the doit urselfers
July 16th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
#70 The Grump
I totally agree with you. I’ve said from the very beginning, my price point is $30,000. Anything over and I’m out! However, I just have one thing to add…whatever car payment you are budgeting for, keep in mind that you will be paying less for gas so you can afford a little more on the car payment.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
55 Statik:
I will post what I posted the last time you posted that…toy makers to cars that is….
Safety, Crash cages, crumple zones, airbags, even though the electric engine is simple these are things that won’t be going away.
Chinese toy manufacturer’s can’t even stop themselves from using lead paint and the Chery car, even though a direct copy, still failed crash tests abysmally.