It’s glaringly clear that GM (and Ford and Chrysler) have rapidly slid into serious financial peril. Revenues have depended heavily on trucks and SUVs. The current oil price spike has fundamentally and profoundly shifted consumer behavior across the boards. People have abruptly stopped buying SUVs and trucks in favor of small fuel efficient cars (or no new car at all).
In the Wall Street Journal, Joseph White proposed three types of cars he feels the Big 3 should build to save themselves:
• A seven passenger family vehicle that gets 30 miles to the gallon on the highway.
• A midsize sedan that gets 40 miles to the gallon on the highway — and doesn’t cost much more than a Chevy Malibu, Ford Fusion or Toyota Camry.
• A pickup truck large enough to do real work and comes close to 30 miles per gallon on the highway.
He did not recommend an electric car, because:
“an electric car isn’t a mass market product for Detroit Three buyers, most of whom live in the heartland. The Detroit Three lost electric car fans a long time ago. They first need to regain relevancy with their customer base – people who like larger vehicles, who have families and who need to drive long distances.”
Mr. White’s associate Keith Johnson on the WSJ blog paraphrases “Would GM… stand to gain more by forgoing moonshots on fantasy cars and focusing on just making more fuel-efficient cars that Americans want to buy?”
Source (Wall Street Journal )
This entry was posted on Monday, June 30th, 2008 at 11:24 am and is filed under Public Opinion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:32 am)No.
Do both.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:35 am)GM will make those cars anyway. What’s stopping them from making the Volt AND making more fuel efficient gas cars? I think there is an assumption in this statement that the Volt program takes away from developing better gas engines. I don’t think it takes away, GM is a huge company. They’ll do both. Just like all the other companies that are developing electric right now.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:39 am)Side note: that’s a late 80s early 90s dodge caravan isn’t it? My friend used to drive one of those. Are they fuel efficient? Why is it pictured on this thread?
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:47 am)White is both right….and all wrong.
Of course, for the short term, the types of cars he recommends would help the Big Three.
But to ignore the move to electric cars entirely? Jeez! Imaging the editorials that would be written, slamming GM for again dropping the ball, for being short-sighted when ANYONE could see that the days of gas-only cars were numbered.
No Mr. White. GM is doing exactly what it should. (And by the way, has he forgotten about the high MPG Cobalt they’re rolling out?)
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:49 am)In my opinion, the Wall Street Journal usually gets things like this wrong. Their process is to apply old market models to completely new types of products, and so they completely miss new markets.
The Volt is a new market model. Most miles are driven on electricity at less than $1/gallon equivalent. Plugging in at night is more convenient than going to the gas station. The gas engine is always there for longer trips, or if you forget to plug in now and then (I know I will). What’s not to like? Eventually, everyone will want one of these.
With ever increasing global demand for oil, gas prices will remain high or continue to increase. With electricity at $1/gallon equivalent, plug-in hybrids are a no-brainier.
The only issue will be the purchase price of the vehicle. There is nothing about batteries that makes them inherantly expensive, so as volume ramps up, costs will come down.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:49 am)Apparently Mr. White thinks GM just needs to wave their magic wand to produce these vehicles. What a simpleton. How far can we really squeeze the turnip on these ICE’s. We are maxing out efficiency with cost/benefit. Anything else that is done will cost al lot of money to produce and will only gain 3-6MPG.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:50 am)Engine makers are now approaching the limit on ICE efficiency with gasoline. Forced induction and direct-injection may become more of a mainstay to achieve better MPG while not sacrificing power, but it increases cost and complexity of the system…
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:51 am)“more efficient” gas cars really is only used to mean “smaller, cheaper” cars, which none of the U.S. automakers can make
competitively – too large apercentage of their cost is in labor, unionized labor (at Chrysler rates of $135 PER HOUR) . End of discussion.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:53 am)The Pontiac Vibe is a crossover SUV that gets good gas mileage. But Toyota makes the engine. The Chevy Aveo gets great mileage, but that’s made by the Koreans. Basically, most efficient GM vehicles are not actually GM engineered. That has to change.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:54 am)GM needs to focus on the big picture their going to be bankrupt in two years if they don’t start selling high fuel efficient vehicles..Yes the volt is wonderful, but if that’s all your hoping on saving you then game over. They priced it right out of the mainstream america and shot straight for the people making 75000-100000 a year..hello what about the 50000 or less..if they would do a new cobalt that got 50 miles highway and 40 miles city for under 25000 then game on make revenue to fund projects like volt. If you only sell 50,000 volts a year your not going to be around for long. Watch for honda and toyota in the next few years a honda fit hybrid 55 miles highway and 68 miles city..under 25,000 yep the volt will do great..
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:55 am)The real problem that needs to be addressed is how America can switch to ethanol faster. GM is doing its part with Flex-fuel. Were is national(Federal) leadership in the transition to ethanol??? This is America’s #1 priority, IMO. Its the fuel not the fuel effiency,
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:56 am)They need to do both. GM should be working on putting more fuel efficient cars and trucks on the market with their two-mode hybrid. If not that, they could use someone else’s hybrid technology to jump start them. They need these cars and trucks now, but even so, it will be several years before they can be done. Even after the Volt is out, their is going to be a need for small efficient cars that do not have the Volt technology. This is not going to be a situation where once the Volt is out, all gasoline cars and trucks will be history. This is a game changer that will occur over a period of 10 to 20 years. It will not happen like turning off one type of vehicle and turning on another.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:57 am)Produce the Volt and increase efficiency in the other models!
Unfortunately, GM’s priorities still appear to be screwed-up. Efficiency and styling are MUCH MORE important than power. We demand MORE efficiency even if the price is less power!
Regarding styling: No eggs, no boxes, no airplanes and no fish.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:57 am)Joseph White? Where do these morons come from and how do they obtain gainful employment by writing?
The masses have NEVER had a viable electric vehicle choice, so how could they have lost their fans? Fans of what?
Everyone on this board understands the real problems:
1. cheap gas in the past
2. unnecessarily large vehicles
3. unnecessarily massive engines with ludicrous HP.
4. marketing efforts to ram rod this “American dream” down our throats.
It the major auto makers cannot deliver a good PHEV in the next two years, I will buy a Honda Civic CNG and only have to pay 25K…..
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:58 am)Lyle, I sure wish you could have used a better example of a fuel efficient vehicle in the post’s picture.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:58 am)In the near term, GM, Ford, & Chrysler must focus on producing more of the fuel efficient cars they already make (i.e. convert SUV assembly lines to smaller car assembly lines).
In the medium term, car manufacturers are going to have to embrace plug-ins.
In the long term, car makers must figure out how to make carbon fiber cheap for the masses.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:59 am)Ethanol isn’t the best environmentally, at least the corn-made version, and gets worse MPG. Currently, it’s about on par with gas prices though, when factoring in the lower price per gallon.
What GM needs to do is a three-pronged approach. Make all new products flex-fuel capable, make more efficient vehicles, and make technological breakthroughs with electric cars and E-REVs.
By now they should know that it makes sense to have a well-diversified portfolio, instead of putting all their eggs in one SUV basket.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:02 pm)What Mr White seemed to be saying is for the Big Three to leave electric cars to the “other” manufacturers like Telsa and the Japanese and the Europeans. I did not read the article, yet. But I will.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:02 pm)everyday the reality of the “VOLT” gets dimmer
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:03 pm)30 MPG highway rating really means maybe 27 on the highway and probably 20 city. this is an absolutely PATHETIC goal.
i agree with #1 Mike756 — do both. Build electric cars, and also build more efficient gas cars. But forget this 30MPG highway crap, we need to aim much higher than that to make a difference.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:03 pm)“an electric car isn’t a mass market product for Detroit Three buyers, most of whom live in the heartland….(people) who have families and who need to drive long distances.”
What is this guy talking about? Has he ever SEEN the heartland? Where do you think all of the Honda Civics and Accords are sold? Large cars are NOT all that relevant to Americans, capable cars are! The Chevy Volt is EXACTLY the kind of car that the American heartland is looking for. Heck, it’s the car that ALL of America is looking for. The capability to achieve massive reductions in our dependency upon foreign oil is ENTIRELY relevant to the American car buyer.
-1
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:06 pm)I think if you have $1.40/gal ethanol all problems go away, and everybody says that is do-able. Just a matter of political will.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:06 pm)I will not buy a gasser from anyone. My next car will be fully electric. Period.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:06 pm)Mike 756 said it all at #1. I think that I and others have been saying just that here for months.
#4 FME 111:
Where is the “high MPG Cobalt they’re rolling out”? I have been hearing about it for weeks. If it isn’t going to show up until 2010, the game may be over.
Saturday I suggested to Lyle that it would be an appropriate issue for GM-Volt.com, because such cars in the short run are the only thing which will allow GM survivability to get to the Volt in the longer run.
I’m here with the cash in my hand if it will get the same mileage as a Yaris or a Fit. Do it!
I used to suggest on Fastlane that GM had enough stuff in the parts bins to do this sooner rather than later. Why does the Aveo get essentially the same mediocre mileage as the Cobalt? If GM has gas engines and drivelines in Europe that get 40+ MPG, why couldn’t they plug them into the Aveo, which at least has the advantage of being light? If Jon Moss could make the Impala SS out of the Caprice Classic in just a few months, all this kind of stuff is possible. Where is Jon Moss, now that we need him?
At risk of repeating myself, if GM can win its class at Le Mans (well 2nd this year) and the 24 Hours of Daytona, it can do anything. If Bob Lutz put the Corvette race team – in house engineers, Katech, Pratt & Miller, et al, on a crash program to make a super mileage Aveo or Cobalt, on the basis that it was an existential challenge for the Corporation, which it most assuredly is, they would get it done in damn short order. The same dedication and drive which wins Le Mans can product world beating road cars. Never doubt it.
1.4 Ecotec, 6 speed manual Aveo, with as much weight as possible removed and the best possible aero tricks. 40 mpg highway, 33 city. Do it!
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:06 pm)They will have to build vehicles that get 35mpg by 2020 anyways, so of course GM is engineering more efficient vehicles now…
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:09 pm)Do both. American car makers have done a great job of turning off
American car buyers. Now they need to please everyone, which is impossible. So they need to please the most.
EREV is the future.
GM doesn’t have to worry about CAFE by 2020 if their entire line is EREV.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:12 pm)As many of you already said, I agree that GM should do both. However, I don’t think anyone else has yet mentioned on this thread….I really want a Volt so I can stop being so dependent on foreign oil. Isn’t anyone else tired of sending your money to the middle east, where everyone wants to destroy the U.S.?
I already ride a motorcycle everyday, which gets 45 MPGs. I really don’t care if GM builds a car that can get 50 MPGs. For me to make a paradigm shift, I want something that uses zero gasoline/oil.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:14 pm)To get high gasoline mileage we may have to accept cars and trucks that are designed quite differently from those of today. You either must find a radically different gasoline or diesel engine design or change the shape and weight of the vehicle. There isn’t much more mileage they can squeeze out of today’s car design.
I, for one, would gladly accept a “egg” shaped car (or what ever reasonable design) that would allow me to achieve over 50 miles per gallon on the highway. All I want is an easy entry and exit roomy car that is stylish in the inside while being efficient outside. I view the interior of the car as being more important to me than the outside appearance. While driving, I am on the inside looking out.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:15 pm)#10 Jason D & #12 N Riley:
Right!
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:17 pm)“an electric car isn’t a mass market product for Detroit Three buyers, most of whom live in the heartland. The Detroit Three lost electric car fans a long time ago. They first need to regain relevancy with their customer base – people who like larger vehicles, who have families and who need to drive long distances.”
I suppose Mr. White does not believe CALIFORNIA to be a big enough market for the Detroit Three?
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:19 pm)GM’s (2001) 80+ MPG GM Precept (with Japanese components).
http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/1266481.html?page=1
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:19 pm)Who is this guy? let us all go throw eggs at him.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:19 pm)#24 Noel Park
I agree.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:20 pm)29 comments in 43 minutes? It that a new record? You have touched a few nerves here Lyle. This is a bottom line survival issue, as if we didn’t all know that already.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:20 pm)GM already makes fuel efficient cars. They just don’t sell them in America. They have to do the Volt anyway because, a) they’re already committed to it and b) practically every other car manufacturer is making electric cars. Mercedes, for example..
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/06/30/a-class-mercedes-goodbye-fuel-cell-hello-tesla-battery/
So, its do it now or kiss market share goodbye.
+1
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:21 pm)The Wall Street Journal is dead wrong! They are stuck in the old mind frame of “stick with what has been selling.” However, what has been selling isn’t now and that market is not likely to come back. Gas prices make big gars un affordable and that is not going to change.
It seems to me that GM took a big leap of faith and happened to be right. From the information we get, they are on target on all of their benchmarks and I believe there is a huge market waiting for them. We’ve got over 30,000 people who have indicated that they want to buy the Volt and it hasn’t even been officially unveiled yet. As soon as it is, that number will really take off because the Volt meets the needs of most drivers, doesn’t use gas, needs very little maintenance and is extremely quiet. Stay with it GM, you’ve got a lot of people rooting for you.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:22 pm)Too bad the cost of diesel is so high because of the refinery bottlenecks. Small, efficient diesel engines are a better option for fuel efficiency than gasoline. Hell, you can drive to work after you make some french fries!
Regardless, I want my next car to be a Volt mainly to reduce our dependence on oil. I hate the idea that the price of my fuel can change drastically in less than a day because some idiot makes some comment about the oil supply or someone shoots a pipeline!
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:23 pm)#31 srschrier:
It’s enough to make one weep, isn’t it?
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:28 pm)Could you imagine the ribbing that GM would get from the New York Times if it weren’t developing an EV? This is an exaple of a paper’s pathetic attempt to try and make news rather than report news.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:28 pm)I don’t know about skipping the Volt, but they HAVE to build these high effiiciency cars, that is the market now.
Amercians have long had trouble with highly ‘efficient’ cars, because the maximization of efficiency always means one other thing– being ‘underpowered,’ so quite simply they have not been built.
Those days are over for most Americans, and they aren’t ever coming back. ‘John and Jane America’, living in suburbia are feeling the pain now, they just want a car that doesn’t cost them $70 bucks to fill that only gets 300 miles. They want it to go back to the old days, when 300 miles costs $30.00.
What is the best selling car of the next decade? I don’t know the brand or the model name, but I wager it has 4 doors, a 4 cyclinder engine (rated around 135HP) and gets 40MPG.
In the new world 8 cyclinders = “luxury sport”.
If any automaker doesn’t take the “red pen” to just about all it’s engines, that automaker will cease to exist.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:35 pm)#32 Ash
>>Who is this guy? let us all go throw eggs at him.
Hah! For some reason that reminds me of an old Simpsons’ episode…
Moe: They’re headed for the old mill!
Homer: No we’re not!
Moe: Well… then, let’s go to the old mill anyways, get some cider!
Shoot, I’m so far off topic maybe I deserve an egging.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:45 pm)ABSOLUTELY NOT!
GM CANNOT COMPETE WITH HONDA ON CHEAP, FUEL SIPPING VEHICLES.
The American automakers can only innovate to a better market position against low cost manufacturers, and this energy crisis is the opportunity to do this.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:47 pm)Not all Americans are ready for the change. But, pocket book economics will soon convert them. We are so used to our big cars and big trucks that some of us find it very difficult to move towards an economical vehicle. Not me. I would rather save money and resources and still get where I want to go without worrying about how much it is going to cost to make the trip.
Get started GM. Give us more economical cars and trucks. The Volt will be here someday and it will still take 10 to 20 years for it and its siblings to take over the market. Plenty of time to make money on smaller more efficient cars and trucks.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:49 pm)They will drop the fuel cell before they drop the Volt.
If they drop the Volt they might as well give up. Maybe they could be bought out by Tesla.
They problem that car makers created was not having the cars available when we want them. The Volt was wanted yesterday but we have to wait forever for it.
What I don’t understand is that if the batteries are not the problem why don’t we have a 40 miles EV only available now. The drivetrain has been proven in all concept fuel cells as well as the EV1.
Go GM! Go Volt! We Need it NOW!!!!!!!!!
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:50 pm)#40 Statik:
Exactly right.
#41 Mike-O-Matic:
Well this whole soap opera remind me of a Simpsons’ episode, or maybe a whole season. So who could blame you? You do deserve it.
Maybe we could have some fun figuring out which of the players matches up with which Simpsons’ character. Mr. Burns is a natural, but I already took him for Dick Cheney, so he’s off the board.
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:52 pm)#42 Jason M Hendler
“GM CANNOT COMPETE WITH HONDA ON CHEAP, FUEL SIPPING VEHICLES.”
Give me a break, Jason. You can’t actually believe that, do you? Being able to produce a gas sipping auto only takes engineering and the desire to do it if the market demands it. GM has the engineering. The market is demanding it. So, the only question is does GM desire to do it? Theres a lot of gold in them there little cars. My slang is not quite correct, but you understand what I mean. If GM wants to do it, the demand is there to buy everyone they can build. So, get started GM……
Jun 30th, 2008 (12:54 pm)As long as there are teenagers and men that feel the need to compensate, there will be a market for big engine cars. Someone will always want a mustang, or corvette, or a viper. But like others have said here, that will become a side market to the main consumer in the US. The base will want the high MPG’s to get their kids to school or run to the grocery store. The other, smaller, group will always be willing to pay more for their gas so they can squeal their tires a little louder at the next green light.
The first company to produce an electric plug in that gets 40, 50, or a 100 miles per charge will win. I really think that in the future, people will end up owning two cars – one an electric commuter car, and the other the workhorse, gasonline or other, to haul the stuff from Home Depot and take the kids across the country on vacation
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:03 pm)Ohmexcited,
I couldn’t agree more that such “joint ventures” with the Japanese need to end. Unfortunately, it is currently a Japanese requirement as explained in this (very enlightening, IMHO) article:
http://www.uwsa.com/issues/trade/japanyes.html
In a nutshell … competition from foreign products is pretty much prevented in Japan. The rare exceptions are products (like the ones you mentioned) that result from joint ventures. In these cases, Japan wins on the exchange, since they usually get free intellectual property or they get to make other countries and businesses dependent on them. It’s a subtle, brilliant, ruthless strategy.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:04 pm)GM should build whatever keeps them in business. They certainly won’t be able to live on profits from Volts and hybrids in the near term. What they build in the short term can only be judged by GM. However, the longer term needs to be considered with great care. GM and the other American car makers can’t afford to be in a similar situation when they rise from this current low in the future.
Also, I think a full electric vehicle is a great idea. Hybrids and Volt essentially carry 2 powertrains which isn’t the most efficient way to propel vehicles. Hybrids are great transition technology, but I think battery technology has progressed to start developing full EV’s in small volumes. This probably isn’t possible in the short term for any American maker, but it should be considered for the future. I certainly like the idea of getting off gasoline as soon as possible. I wonder what a purpose built EV would get in terms of range give today’s LiIon technology and advanced vehicle materials.
I could see owning an EV for daily commutes to work and an SUV or truck for playing and hauling stuff on the weekend.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:11 pm)Nope. Making ‘more efficient gas cars’ does NOT solve the problem. It still keeps us on oil. We want OFF of oil.
I for one am NOT going to buy another vehicle that uses gas. It either plugs in, or no deal. PERIOD.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:18 pm)Be careful Kent (#28), there were two motorcycle accidents in Atlanta, just this morning. A co-worker of mine was almost killed saving a nickel on a bike, a couple of weeks ago. The future without Volt (or other EREVs) is going to be very expensive, from a purely human standpoint.
If “Middle America” doesn’t want the Volt, send them all down SOUTH!!!
I think GM should spread Flex-Fuel more widely (even though I am skeptical that Ethanol will ever amount to much more than a side-show), because:
1) It doesn’t cost GM that much to add to a car,
2) Buyers will see it as increasing future fuel options, even if it never does (and hey, I could be wrong).
Ethanol probably is something we need to do now; however, I think it will lose out, long term:
1) The total, biological output potential of US agriculture will never have the potential to replace as much oil as auto electrification will (and we still have to eat).
2) The current reality is Ethanol from Corn. If this does not present a direct conflict with food availability, consider all the farmers looking for a corn-to-Ethanol-for-cash bonanza who could be growing something else. It should be curtailed as soon as “Cellulosic Ethanol” goes on-line.
3) Cellulosic Ethanol, when it does emerge as significant, still has long-term ramifications I’ve heard no one address: what happens to our arable land when corn stalks and other farm ‘waste’ stops being plowed under to improve the soil? Probably nothing for a decade or so, but then it will become all too apparent in dropping agricultural yields, almost too late to remedy.
The best biofuel idea I’ve heard yet is algae-to-biodiesel (who cares about other uses for pond scum?). But even this requires large amounts of scarce fresh water, and lots of research yet to do before it gets off the ground.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:19 pm)To those advocating diesel,
Although diesel engines offer some advantages, making them run clean enough to meet USA emissions requirements is tough, and that is about to get much harder. IMHO, that is the main reason Caterpillar is completely exiting the on-highway diesel engine business.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:28 pm)The WSJ is looking at the financial health of GM and not at the religious discussion about the Volt. What the WSJ understands, correctly, is that whether the Volt succeeds in 2012 or not, the vast majority of the NA auto market will be for conventional vehicles. This situation will last for some time.
Should GM take steps, now, to ensure that the majority of their production has class-leading fuel economy in 2012, so that they can compete effectively in the majority of the market?
Can GM take steps, now, to help get class-leading fuel economy in 2011? 2010? 2009?
The recent release of the Cobalt XFE, inadequate though it is, was a step in the right direction. Problems aplenty remain.
The Vue is 500lbs heavier than the competition and the Cobalt is a few hundred pounds over class nor, too, and offers no corresponsing technical advantage (towing, capacity, etc). Heavier cars get worse fuel economy. Period. Especially in town.
The upcoming Vue hybrid will be powered by a V6. WTF? People don’t buy hybrids for performance (read the Accord hybrid’s obituary).
GM is losing money TODAY. What should they be doing for the near-term to return to financial health? Banking on the 60K-in-2012 Volt will not save GM. Period.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:32 pm)I read the article, and I just think White is dead wrong. First, the Big 3 can’t just focus on their supposed current customer base. Looking backwards, over the long-term, Detriot’s Big 3 shrunk precisely because their customer base shrunk. They left the small car segment to the competition, and the competition took that, and then built on their succes to eat away at the rest of the auto market. Financial problems ensued. The Big 3 can’t reverse that long-term trend by simply catering to their existing customer base. They have to expand their customer base.
And they can. There are tons of people who post here who drive Toyotas and Hondas, but have said that they will buy a Volt.
Second, looking ahead, with gas at $140 a barrel and rising, the Big 3′s supposed base is shrinking, and will continue to shrink. In fact, we had a syndicated article in our newspaper last week about mini-van sales being down by 20% nationally. Making a 30 mpg v. 20 mpg will not alter the fundamental (and presumably permanent) shift in oil price levels. GM must build the Volt now. Build more efficient large stuff now, sure they should. But building the Volt now will give GM an edge in building mid-size SUV and mini-van plug-ins soon. Otherwise, GM’s “base” of large cars, mini-vans, and SUVs may very well disappear forever.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:33 pm)Phbbt. GM didn’t just fall off the turnip truck. Don’t you think that if they knew any conceivable way to put out a high mileage big SUV at a reasonable cost, they would do so? Their 2 mode hybrid was as good as they could come up with using conventional means. And as nice as it is, it’s still not a very compelling price/mpg point.
They ONLY way they’re going to get to the kind of price/mpg points they want to get to is through electirc drivetrains. GM must now be starting to realize this as well since they learned from their \Volt engineers that the weight of the vehicle was not as big a factor in the MPG as the aero. The chieftians at GM must have started thinking EREVSUV right at that moment! I just wonder why they haven’t started a program for it, yet. Maybe they have. Or maybe they will just start cramming once the \Volt gets a little farther along.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:33 pm)Nice post Jackson #51…
I didnt even hear about the algae alternative until earlier this year….it certainly sounds great….plus it seems to be closer to reality or err..viability…. than say oh…..EEStor ?? or Fuel Cells ??
I never thought about the ‘soil replenishment’ angle on cellulose. Interesting piont.
Good stuff today……
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:34 pm)Electrics aren’t ready yet. We are in an energy storage crisis. No known material can store enough electrical energy at a low weight and low cost to suit the wants (not requirements, but wants) of most Americans.
Most Americans only drive about 40-miles per day. But most Americans want a car that can get them 400-miles per day and doesn’t cost them a fortune. Serial hybrids are a step in the right direction. But we are really relying on the assumption that better battery technology is just a few years away. That’s what GM thought during the late 90s.
I think until our energy storage crisis is solved, we must be primarily focused on producing the most fuel efficient vehicles possible. Meanwhile, the auto industry could divert some funding into advanced technologies (like serial hybrids) so that when the technology does become viable, they are ready to quickly act with a platform that works.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:35 pm)This is the second time today I have seen the trem “moon shot” applied to the Volt. How is this a moon shot? If we are to believe GM, they already have a battery at or near their design specs, the rest is just integration. Software could be tricky, but certainly doable. So how can anyone compare this to a moon shot?
Pundits….
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:41 pm)I wouldn’t go so far as to say that American automakers can’t make a fuel-efficient small car, but if they drop the Volt to make them, I think they are doomed. Yes, they can make such cars; but they’ll be in competition with every Asian company out there: with less direct (or current) experience, direct tooling, and every other thing that gives Toyota & co. an advantage. It costs money to do this, too.
By bringing out the Volt, they would leapfrog all these competing companies, at least for a time.
The question becomes:
1. Does GM kill the Volt and die trying to match Japan at it’s own game, or
2. Does GM fail to make competitive cars long enough to bring out the Volt, and die?
An attainable, positive reality lurks (if it exists at all), somewhere in between.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:44 pm)#58, Marcus – Exactly, it’s a done deal, it just ain’t done yet
)
Mr. Lutz knows that the battery is a done deal, that’s why he’s so giddy lately.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:45 pm)#17 Eric C. says: “Ethanol isn’t the best environmentally, at least the corn-made version, and gets worse MPG.”
Yes, corn made ethanol is a joke, but cellulosic ethanol will be the real deal. E-REV type vehicles can eliminate 75% of our gasoline use. Cellulosic ethanol could then take care of the remaining 25%.
Also note that engines which are specifically made to run on ethanol get better MPG than gas engines. It’s only when you add ethanol capability to a gas engine as an afterthought that MPG becomes worse.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:53 pm)I think EVs and EREVs are the future of the automotive “industry”. Sure GM needs to have more efficient cars and trucks to sell now and before EVs and EREVs become the norm. But to say they should ignore working on EVs and EREVs now to concentrate on ICE efficiency is short sighted.
They way I see it if your an automotive manufacturer and you don’t have plans for EVs or EREVs you are going to go bankrupt eventually. If gas prices continue to increase at the rate they have all car companies (Euro and Asian brands included) are going to be near bankruptcy because there products will just be too expensive for the majority to operate.
Now is it possible that the VOLT won’t save GM, certainly. But I equally believe that if they don’t have something like the VOLT they will fail.
GM is in a do or die position, an even if they do they could still die.
The good news is there are many MPG saving tech that GM and all other big auto makers have developed over the years that they can put into play. The only problem is that each of these measures taken to improve MPG increases costs as well (which is why they hadn’t been implemented up to this point).
GM already makes some very nice efficient small cars, they are just sold in Europe. I have a feeling like Ford has done we may see Euro models coming to the US to fill the gaps in the current lineups.
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:54 pm)Live webcast, right now, of Governor Schwarzenegger at Tesla HQ, on clean-air tech and the announcement on Tesla’s Whitestar.
http://gov.ca.gov/
Jun 30th, 2008 (1:59 pm)The WSJ article suggests that GM, to save its business, forsake electric cars in favor of producing today’s cars, but with better mileage. Many of today’s hybrids attempt to be today’s cars, but with better mileage. Hybrids are partially electrified. Should automakers forsake hybrids? E-Flex is the next generation in the hybrid evolution towards BEVs.
I’m sure GM is aware of their business situation. GM already considered its finances and made decisions to pursue the Volt. There will be a lot of second-guessers, like Joseph White. Is the WSJ so conservative that they are risk averse? There is also a risk to maintaining status quo.
GM does not need to cater to outdated concepts of customer needs. People who have (4-person)families and who need to drive long distances can be served by the Volt.
According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 78% of ALL round trips and 92% of all one way trips are less than 40 miles. The Volt is relevant to that use pattern. GM seems wise in its attempt to capitalize on that statistic.
People who like larger vehicles will have to pay for that “want.”
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:00 pm)Tesla stated a pure EV, under 30K would be out from them no later than 4 years from now. Whitestar at 60K before rebates.
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:10 pm)Could they build something like the md-80′s Pontiac Fiero? I had an early one (before they upped the engine size) and it got 40mpg (mostly highway driving). If not for the 80′s era fit and finish it would have been perfect. It had an all plastic body with color all the way through so scratches were easy to repair. I assume it would need impact improvements….would those add so much weight as to kill it?
It was only a 2-seater but a fun commuter….and it was cheap.
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:13 pm)If GM doesn’t make better cars for people who want small cars, starting today, they will not survive long enough to birth the Volt. Sorry to burst the bubble, but that’s where they are.
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:14 pm)#28 N Riley says: “To get high gasoline mileage we may have to accept cars and trucks that are designed quite differently from those of today. You either must find a radically different gasoline or diesel engine design or change the shape and weight of the vehicle…”
There isn’t a whole lot more we can do to improve piston engine efficiency. The fundamental problem is that these engines work against themselves. The compression stroke of one cylinder steals from the power stroke of other cylinders.
But we can do a whole lot more with aerodynamics and weight. Here’s an SUV that gets 100 MPG:
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/01/24/interview-with-michael-brylawski-of-rmi-part-one-history-of-t/
The secret is carbon fiber.
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:16 pm)GM should continue making the Volt and the sooner they get it out, the better. Toyota would love for GM to drop the Volt because they are deathly afraid of the Volt. GM should continue doing what they are doing. Let GM decide what is best for them. After sleeping for 30 years the are now fully awake. WSJ is not one that knows anything about the auto business or any other business for that matter.
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:17 pm)My two cents:
It takes a few years to bring a product to market. It takes one day to eliminate a product from the market. So far GM has closed plants in response to the lagging sales of its money making products.
One of the reasons listed as opposition to some of the PROPOSED higher CAFE standards in the past was that it would take money to improve the efficiency of an ICE engine and each new improvement takes cost more and more dollars. Supposedly the automakers would have less to invest in long term goals. Goals like the E-Flex drive train.
It appears that GM is foregoing all the short term improvements in ICE fuel efficiency to plow ahead with the E-Flex drive train. Companies that delay developing competitive technology to answer the E-Flex will be in a very tight spot 7 years from now.
Other car companies are concentrating on bringing there autos up to the pathetic 30-40 mpg range. Although this may sound good to some now. These mpg figures will still leave a huge hole in the economy. To offset the average USA citizen having to spend 20% of their income on energy the gas milage of cars will have to be greatly improved. 37mpg helps ease the pain but won’t bring the % of peoples income spent of energy back down enough to have it back to a % that is inline with what it was a year or two ago.
For that we need 80 mpg or better. The company that can put out a reasonably price car that gets 150mpg will be in the driver seat. Most of the automakers don’t appear to be striving for that.
GM is striving for that with the Volt but it is yet to be seen if they can do it at a price that will make it affordable to the masses.
Will Toyota or Mitsubishi step up and deliver this car? If they do it will not be sooner that 2012 apparently. Will GM? If so it will not be before 2012 either. So the race is still wide open despite GM being the only one with the game changer in the works set to go into decent numbered production. But the price is currenly a little to high to qualify.
Question is can GM get the price down another 12K before Toyota or Honda can introduce their “game changer”. Unfortunately for us the wait is going to be a long one.
When the volt was first introduced
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:23 pm)Hey Statik #63….
I’m imagining the Governator at his press conference saying things like…
“Come with me if you want to live”
“Take my HAND!”
“Do it, do it now!”
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:26 pm)Thank you for those kind words, Murray.
I wonder if any other Ethanol-observers out there can address this not-plowing-stuff-under issue with Cellulosic Ethanol? It would be one thing if there were any discussion at all about it, but I haven’t heard anything.
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:33 pm)I’d love to see an all carbon-fiber car body. I think carbon-fiber is a no-brainer … when the time is right. There’s been a lot of discussion here about the timliness of the EFLEX and earlier electric drive-train technologies, and I think we all agree that the time for them is finally ripe.
Unfortunately, carbon fiber is very expensive and labor-intensive to work with at this time, and I doubt very much that it will have much, if anything to contribute to the current crisis.
GM hasn’t been sitting still on internal combustion engines, and I think a big surprise may be in the offing for those saying that ICE can’t be substantially improved. Stay tuned …
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:38 pm)#71 Murray
“Hey Statik#63…I’m imagining the Governator at his press conference saying things like…“Come with me if you want to live…”
That did have a few light hearted moments,lol.
Other random bits of interest:
California built Whitestar is officially called the “Model S,” $60,000 before rebates, minimum range 225 miles.
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:47 pm)It was orignally going to be made in New Mexico, not now.
The CAEATFA program that was approved last Wednesday in California, exempts automakers from paying sales and use tax when they purchase manufacturing equipment to build electric vehicles in the state.
Will save Tesla…and any other auto manufacturer alot of coin if they are building a ZEV-EV.
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:53 pm)I really should be working but since you brought up the stuff about Tesla, I got the obesssion bug again…..after some very light browsing around I found this interesting interview w/ Elon Musk.
I found the ‘Production and sales strategy’ section quite interesting…. regarding the Tesla drivetrain and it remaining proprietary….
Elon Musk: “…So we’re not trying to keep the power train to ourselves, we’re happy to sell that to other companies.”
Interviewer aks who??
Elon Musk: “…It’s still confidential, but we think we’ll be able to announce a deal with a major car company maybe later this year.”
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/science/jan-june08/musk_06-25.html
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:55 pm)Both should be built. The Volt would be the halo car to aspire to (sort of like the Corvette was the halo car when gas was cheap) and get people into the showroom to buy a “traditional” high mileage car. A new high mileage Cobalt is supposed to be introduced around 2010, so the timing should work.
Same with Prius. It’s Toyota’s halo car now which gets people thinking about all Toyotas as being fuel-efficient cars, get them to the showroom, and sell a “traditional” high mileage car. The hybrid hype must be working for Toyota, since I’ve overheard conversations by people I know who should supposedly know their cars… and mistaken the Yaris as a hybrid!?!
I’ve even heard people think that the Honda Element is a hybrid as well, probably partially because it’s Japanese and looks weird. It’s amazing how a little ignorance can go a long way to help the reputation of some companies, and unfairly hurt others. So I’d guess that it’s GM’s strategy to make people believe that all its vehicles are electric-powered because of all the Volt hype they’re going to hear.
Jun 30th, 2008 (2:58 pm)#68 Dave G
The Hyper Car concept utilizes a hydrogen engine for propulsion. I still believe hydrogen is too far in the future to to be of any practical use today. Plus, it ties us to the same fuel structure we have today with service stations on every corner and more serve work required at the dealers. Hydrogen is a good thing for the “energy” companies (big oil) and their service station network and for the automotive service centers. It is no different than being locked into gasoline, just different suppliers.
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:03 pm)ALSO: In that interview with Elon Musk I posted in #76….
Elon bashes the whole hydrogen myth and the use of fuel cells being powered by hydrogen. He breaks it down in plain words too, heck even I understood it!
Sorry, I’ll stop pushing that interview now….I thought it was good though.
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:05 pm)#51 Jackson:
With regard to bio-fuels:
1) Yes, it is unrealistic to expect 100% of our gasoline to convert to ethanol, but that’s not the goal. If E-REV type vehicles can convert perhaps 75% of our gasoline to electricity, then the remaining 25% (i.e. for longer trips) could come from E85 or bio-diesel. With cellulosic ethanol and bio-diesel, a goal of around 25% is realistically achievable.
2) Ethanol from Corn is only discussed in the U.S., and only because of the massive government subsidies for corn. Cellulosic ethanol and bio-diesel are the more viable forms of bio-fuel. Sugar cane is also used effectively in Brazil.
3) Cellulosic ethanol does not consume all the biomass. There is a sludge leftover. This sludge could be dried and burned for extra energy, or plowed under as fertilizer. Note that energy crops like switch grass don’t require much fertilizer.
4) Algae works best in closed loop vertical systems, like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ToojK_MJd0
With this method:
a) very little water evaporates
b) other strains of algae are blocked from entering the system
c) sunlight is used much more effectively
d) you can locate it anywhere (e.g. in the desert)
Note that algae is also an excellent way to scrub CO2 and other pollutants from existing power plants, like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBJ66Oim_Xw
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:09 pm)#78 N Riley,
The Hyper Car concept seems to alternate between hybrid gasoline and hydrogen proplusion systems, but the point is that carbon fiber can be made economically.
I agree that hydrogen sucks – biggest scam going.
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:14 pm)The writers are jerks….that’s right, jerks. He’d have them continue to produce vehicles that are dependent on oil and keep us bankrupt to other countries for years to come. What a moron.
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:16 pm)Jackson #72
I grew up on a small farm during the 50′s and early 60′s. This was before farmers were into heavy use of chemical fertilizers. We used crop rotation to keep our crop yields high. One year we would plant soybeans on a field, the next year we planted cotton. The next year we might plant corn in the same field. There was a sequence you could use with certain crops, especially legumes. Some crops added to the soil what the next crop needed. I know that if you don’t put back into the soil what you take out, the soil will wear out within about 25 – 35 years. If you think commuters are going to be in a pinch with the cost of gasoline, try being a farmer purchasing diesel to use on the farm.
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:21 pm)Here in Dallas ALL gasoline in mandated to contain 10 percent Ethanol. It’s called E10 by the industry folks. Real people know what the TEN(10) really stands for:
E10 = 10 percent less fuel mileage
and
E10 = 10 percent less power
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:29 pm)#81 Dave G
We agree on the carbon fiber part of the Hyper Car. That is the part crying out for a Volt like power system.
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:32 pm)Lessee:
Supercar: $120K 2-seater? Small, low, light, fast.
Sport Sedan: $60K 5-seater? All aluminum B chassis?
Go Getter: $30K 2-seater? Wee, like the Smart?
Hmm.
Volt: $40K 4-seat range-extended compromise.
Tough call.
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:36 pm)Joseph White is a shill for the big oil companies.
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:37 pm)This just proves that WallStreet is jamm packed with same idiots we have in Washington. The whole point of the Volt is to take a giant step away from oil altogether. Rising gas prices mean we need to get off our dependency of oil. Making more fuel efficient cars isnt solving the problem, it doesnt even eleviate the problem. Electric and Hydrogen are the way to go, and Washington needs get on track to get it moving.
Jun 30th, 2008 (3:58 pm)Again, the delusion is breathtaking. 95% of GM’s employees have nothing to do with the Volt – and you think they ought to keep on with “business as usual” while you wait to see if the Hail Mary pays off?
Why not get those 95% off SUVs and pickups and onto making better small cars in the meantime? Hell, dust off the old plastic-body Saturn designs. I owned and liked my ’92 SL2.
Jun 30th, 2008 (4:02 pm)This article is right. GM could do all three of those points just by offering in the US the same vehicles it does in the rest of the world. Opel Vectra in Europe is good for mid 40′s highway with its diesel engine. I don’t know about GM, but VW minivans (about the same size as dodge minivans) in europe get mid 30s in europe with diesel engines. And Fird offers the Ranger in the rest of the world with a diesel engine that gets in the mid 30s. Sure go for the Volt in the future, but just dropping diesel engines GM sells in the rest of the world into US cars could raise their fuel economy by over 30% right now!
Jun 30th, 2008 (4:13 pm)It’s obvious that the Big Three made gigantic mistakes by allowing their profitability to be so dependent on SUVs and trucks. It should have been obvious to the executives at these companies to consider what would happen when oil would no longer be cheap. The unions also bear a very big share of the blame in helping to drive GM (and possibly Ford as well) into what could be bankruptcy. The legacy costs and public debts of these companies are simply too huge of a burden for even a huge multinational corporation to bear indefinitely. GM has been cutting for years and years and the red ink never stops flowing. Obviously, there’s a long way to go still.
Jun 30th, 2008 (4:15 pm)Thanks for clearing that up, Dave G (#80); but I hope someone is going to insist upon getting that dried sludge back to the farmer’s field/switchgrass plot, and budget that energy cost into the production figures.
Switchgrass probably doesn’t need much in the way of nutrients, but if it fails to get it after a decade of production, the resulting catastrophe could end up making the ‘dust bowl’ look like a job for Lemon Fresh Pledge.
That algae system looks better and better the more I hear about it.
What Brazil can do with Sugar Cane has everything to do with being in the tropics with an adequate water supply (having political will doesn’t hurt either, but all the will in the world won’t substitute for being able to grow Cane year-round). It will be interesting to watch what their Ethanol program does to their agriculture, long term.
Corn subsidies: another reason why we need someting (Volt) that will work regardless of what the politicians are up to.
Jun 30th, 2008 (4:21 pm)#86 Michael S
“Supercar: $120K 2-seater? Small, low, light, fast.
Sport Sedan: $60K 5-seater? All aluminum B chassis?
Go Getter: $30K 2-seater? Wee, like the Smart?”
Hmm.Volt: $40K 4-seat range-extended compromise.
Tough call.”
I think your referencing Tesla’s lineup here, the Bluestar @ 30K is to be a sedan…not a 2 seater. Of course, it is a mythical car with no actual production plans other than a vague, we will do it in about 4 years, (unlike the roadster or the “Model S” today), so it might as well have 12 seats on paper.
Jun 30th, 2008 (4:33 pm)They should not skip the Volt… and making the Volt does not preclude making more efficient cars, and I’m sure they are indeed working on that as they hve seen the light at the end of the tunnel.
I mentioned it several times before…. if GM was able to make the Geo Metro (and other names) 20 years ago that got over 50+ mpg using a 1L 3-cyclinder engine and sat 5 I believe, imagine what they could do with it by applying todays’s technology? Like 6-speed transmissions (for both manual and automatic), engine stop-start technology, etc. It could give the Prius a run for the money, especially when I’m sure GM could price it significantly less than the Prius.
Lots of horse power is not needed… my 1st new car was a 1987 Nissan Sentra had a 1.6L 4-cyclinder naturally aspirated engine that delivered only 69 horse power. Had no problem going 85 mph on the highway and have the tickets to prove it (I once or twice got it to 110 mph on straight aways when I was young and foolish). I reliably got 35 mpg with it for 12 years, and I beat on it (jack rabbit starts and stops, well above the speed limit on highways, etc).
Hybrids mean nothing in and of itself, it’s just one means to achive bettery fuel efficiency. High milage non-hybrids for the short/medium term can also make it affordable until the day a hybrid is no more expensive. Longer term BEV’s like the Volt (being a good start in a few years) are the answer to not only energy efficiency, but also completely removing the need for liquid fuels, especially oil.
Jun 30th, 2008 (4:40 pm)#38 Noel
Thanks for your comment about the 80+ MPG 2001 GM Precept concept car.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/1266481.html?page=1
In (2001) this 80 MPG+ five passenger hybrid from GM is on the test track reviewed by a major publication. The article suggests a Precept could use Nickel or Lithium battery packs.
Low gas prices, high SUV sales, battery difficulties . . could we have had 80+ MPG Precept hybrids today? Yet while delayed maybe some of the Precept’s R&D engineering helps or is being adapted for the E-REV “Volt” project?
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:05 pm)Well,
If 40mpg (highway) is all that is needed GM could build the Opel Vectra in the US.
However in general I think the quest for the more efficient ICE is like the quest for the hydrogen car or the holy grail.
The research effort required would be better spent on electric cars in my opinion.
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:13 pm)bruce g #96
I agree.
Big 3 clients are looking for something different and if battery technology can be do the job the Volt will sell very well. If they weren’t going to sell, there wouldn’t be a million Prius’ on road. That’s too many to call the Prius a niche vehicle.
Surely American automakers would be making highly efficient gas vehicles by now, if they could. Sometimes I think Wall Street should stick to financial matters where there expertise does best.
If all goes as planned, by 2012 GM will know what the market is for cars like the Volt and they can ramp up production accordingly
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:18 pm)GM, Keep the VOLT on track for 2010.
Electric is the future with gas-assist for the next 10.
GO GM, GO VOLT.
Pics for July 4th, right?!?
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:21 pm)I wonder if this article wasn’t written by Ford ?
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:24 pm)With stoires like this one, the door of opportunity is getting wider but the VOLT is still 2+ years away by best estimates.
Toyota and other Japanese companies tend to rollout their new vehicles in their home market since the Japanese customer is required to be more tolerant of issues. I wonder if they will release a PHEV in Japan before the US general public. Does a market exist in Japan for a PHEV?
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:24 pm)I think this idea is stupid. GM has already invested heavily in the Volt, why stop now? That would be a bad idea in itself.
The critics that say there is no plugin market are not paying attention to what is happening with Tesla. They can’t make enough of those cars at $100k. Now discount that by more than 50%, add a backseat and the range extender and what you have is a market that is frothing at the mouth with virtually no competition.
What I think is stupid on GM’s part is not having the foresight to be ready for this market now.
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:25 pm)Statik et al:
Off the Volt topic for a second….did Tesla mention what range their $30K vehicle would get on a single charge? Assuming Tesla can actually get this car to market in 2012, it would really give GM some competition. However, considering all the other delays that Tesla has had, I won’t hold my breath.
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:25 pm)All the car companies are going to be able to do is bring back the Honda CVCC at 1800lbs and 63HP to get to the 2020 standards.
That is not progress.
We need to continue on the hybrid (and therefore the Volt) development. Honda of course can join forces with GM and bring back the CVCC/EV-1 version since it’s “sooooo easy”.
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:27 pm)#94 Jeff M:
I agree.
#96 bruce g:
I agree for the intermediate to long term but, if GM dealers have nothing to sell in the short term, the intermediate to long term will never arrive.
By the time the Volt, and other e-flex vehicles, can be made in the hundreds of thousands or millions required to rescue GM, what year will it be? They are saying 60,000 in 2011 and then ramp up from there. So is it 2012, 13, 14, 15, or when? That’s a MINIMUM of 4 years away, and probably longer. The game may be over by then.
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:27 pm)The problems with fuel efficiency that this “so-called journalist” failed to note are these:
1) America’s love affair with ever expanding everything-we want our property to be bigger. We want our houses to be 8000 sq. ft. We want to drive around in our living rooms. If we as consumers first of all do nothing to curb our frivolous use of oil, then the problem will persist regardless of fuel type. Our desire for more horsepower, passing power has been our downfall. Has anyone noticed that oil gets to $140/barrel and there are more cars that have power levels over 300 bhp? for what? At highway cruising, you never use tham all. Even acting a fool you never use them all. Displacements should get smaller, use of forced induction and direct injection increased, horsepower levels should decrease and as a proponent of such thinking, vehicles should get lighter.
2)Our vehicles have long since been too large and too heavy- Sir Colin Chapman (founder of Lotus) one said that the enemy of speed is weight. The enemy of fuel economy is also weight. A Chevy Tahoe is tested with the average male driver being about 170 lbs. So you have a 170 lb. guy in an 4 ton vehicle. Keep adding stuff and you increase weight. Takes more fuel to move more weight. Hybrid SUV’s are not the answer. Smaller mid-sized SUV’s that carry 5 people MAX. As far as cars go, strip out all the unnecessary crap and make the car what it was meant to be all along-transportation.
3)Ethanol should’ve been made from sugar cane-but so many politicians have a vested interest in the mid-west where corn grows. Brazil (as someone mentioned earlier) has used ethanol made from sugar cane for quite some time. Our politicians have failed us in that respect.
4)Volt should be a halo car-yes make other cars more efficient, but not make the Volt? The Prius is a symbol, not a car. It is the pinnacle of their engineering to better their standing in the world. Obviously people appreciate the sentiment because the Prius is selling. It’s their halo car. GM should follow suit.
There is a lot that has to change before we have our energy future secure (if ever) but not producing the Volt is not one of them. For a journalist to call himself or his publication forward-thinking while shunning progress is not worthy of his post or position. Proves that the media isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Personally, I think they’re idiots…and you can quote me on that…
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:35 pm)#103 TBK:
1800 lbs and 63 HP works for me if it has a Chevrolet badge on it. See Jeff M’s comment at #94. Good gas mileage ain’t rocket science.
A senior Toyota executive was quoted in Autoweek a year or so ago about how auto makers would achieve better fuel mileage in the future. He said:
“Lighter cars with smaller engines.”
Spoken like a true engineer. “Simplicate and add lightness.”
Jun 30th, 2008 (5:35 pm)With all of the demand for competing fuels I only see us heading into the quadraphonic debate of the 21st century.
I vote for CD-4.
Noel, I agree but with all of this talk people need to accept that to get 40MPG the car will be a feather with a tiny engine and lots of gears. Get past that and we are in like Flint.
Jun 30th, 2008 (6:05 pm)#102 Kent
“Statik et al: Off the Volt topic for a second….did Tesla mention what range their $30K vehicle would get on a single charge? Assuming Tesla can actually get this car to market in 2012, it would really give GM some competition. However, considering all the other delays that Tesla has had, I won’t hold my breath.”
No….very little at all on this “Bluestar” Was basically a press mixer for Aenold and the announcement of the Whitestar/Model S production plant in California and the specs on it.
Jun 30th, 2008 (6:12 pm)Intresting fact: According to the latest research, niether Wall Street Journal, nor any of its’ reporters have ever built a damn car.
Jun 30th, 2008 (6:12 pm)TBK What you don’t realize is 40mpg is easy to achieve in a car the size of the Aura/Malibu. Every car that size in Europe comes with an engine option that will get at least 40mpg. GM sells the Opel Vectra with a diesel engine in Europe that gets mid-high 40s on the highway when driven normally and it only weights 100 or so pounds less than the Aura. 40mpg should be the minimum for cars. It is totally achievable with todays technology. American car companies have just kept us in the dark about what is achievable because it is cheaper/more profitable to continue to crank out OHV V6 engines. The Ford Focus in Europe can easily get 60mpg with its diesel engine! And don’t bring up emissions, VW and Mercedes already have engines that pass 2009 emissions, the toughest on diesels yet. If they can do it, GM should be able to.
Jun 30th, 2008 (6:18 pm)Electric drive are not something new, although the plug high powered batteries are.
Some years I worked at an open pit mine. The mine required 35 ton trucks driven by two 1200 hp motors to haul the ore out of the pit. The pit eventually got so deep that the company found it uneconomical to truck the ore out of the pit and was looking at closure.
About this time new 100 ton trucks became available with electric drive with the same economics as the 35 ton trucks. The 100 ton trucks worked much like the Volt concept and extended the life of the mine for several years.
I don’t know why anyone would call this technology a moon shot when it has proven itself for many years in heavy industry.
Jun 30th, 2008 (6:19 pm)http://www.valcent.net/s/Ecotech.asp?ReportID=182039
Algae is the answer! Use 1/8 of the size of New Mexico and set up vertical algae production plants. 2000 plants making 10,000 gallons per day = 20 million gallons of biodiesel per day!
We all get to drive the kind of car we want, and the fuel would be plentiful and grown in our country. Why can’t the stupid politicians figure this one out. Instead of drilling for oil, use algae and grow it!
Duh Duh Duh Duh
Probably cost $2.50 per gallon retail!
Linked page has a cool video of the idea.
Go Algae!!!
Jun 30th, 2008 (6:23 pm)Ed M. Electric drives are not the difficult part its the batteries. Those ore trucks had a large diesel engine turning a generator to run those electric drives, no batteries involved, no energy storage. The reason electric drives are used in those huge trucks is because the transmissions that would be required for such a huge truck would be too heavy and massive to make them economical. Its the same reason locomotives are diesel electric.
Jun 30th, 2008 (6:39 pm)#107 TBK & #110 Brandon:
When gas hits $5, which it will likely do before school starts in the fall, feathers with tiny engines and lots of speeds will start to look pretty good. Look at the sales results for the Yaris and the Fit. Up 30-40% year to year.
Check out the website of GM/Vauxhall in Britain. They have just the cars TBK describes. Some of them get 50 mpg+ on gas, and they are available now. So GM knows how to do it.
As to the diesels, I can only agree with Brandon. Honda will show the way in a minute with the California legal diesel Accord.
The new Aveo 5 supposedly has an uprated engine with Variable Valve Timing. Even so, the mileage claims I have seen have not been competetive with the Yaris/Fit. I think that the weight is about the same, so what’s the problem? Let’s give one to Pratt & Miller and Katech, put it on the scales and in the wind tunnel, and get the mileage up where it needs to be. If the mileage is better, you can sell it for a bit more money to recoup the cost.
Or, show us the high mileage Cobalt. NOW!
As has been discussed here about 1 million times, not everybody will be able to afford $40+K for a Volt. If you don’t have something competitive to fill in the lower priced gaps, game over.
Jun 30th, 2008 (6:53 pm)I’ll wait for the real world results.
The “we can do it do today, we just don’t” argument rarely turns out to be true.
I know we can turn out 1500lb 50MPG cars since we did it before. I want to move forward.
As GM said in the past, the cost difference between a Chevette and a Caddy is small. They both need the same parts.
Jun 30th, 2008 (6:55 pm)To address the question of the article…
At an attempt to bring all parties together, attorneys usually clearly state the facts that are not in dsipute and the ones that are.
- The defacto standard energy source for personal transportation vehicles is gasoline derived from oil.
- Oil price has risen faster than the GM can react without escalating losses.
- GM’s profit center is large ICE trucks and SUVs which has a much lower mpg average than a so called “compact” vehicle.
- Lower sales of GM’s large trucks and SUVs which can be attributed oil price increaes have resulted in closure of 4 plants that supply the North American market.
- EVs do not use gasoline as an energy source. While a PHEV’s energy source can be EITHER gasoline or electricity which is typically stored in an electro-chemical battery. (Note: The EEStor company claims to have developed a commerically viable product to store electrical energy with a non-electro-chemical battery)
Disputed:
- GM should pursue to meet or exceed the release of their PHEV/E-REV (hereafter referred to as the VOLT) vehicle in volume before the end of the year our Lord 2010.
- GM should pursue the 3 other types of vehicles (stated in the attached article) instead of the VOLT which is not a “Detroit Three buyers” product.
Proposed Resolution
- Pursue both.
Jun 30th, 2008 (7:03 pm)Ok, read thru the comments.
Here’s what I think.
Take the “drive” train from the volt, and produce a “wagon”, a “mid” size sedan, small “sedan”, and a small and medium sedan.
To gain flexability, instead of pushing this all into “iron” construction, push for composites. One thing that not “too” clear on the Volt is what is the construction. I’m personally a fan of “fiberforge/hypercar”.
With good a mass-produced composite, using the fiberforge technology, you can have a “large” variety of “cars” that are “bullet-proof” (Literally) great crash worthiness (safety), and “light” Read 80 Miles on the same battiers as in the volt.,
The traditional “IC” is dead. a flexable modular based “plan” is the way to go. Levarage modern cad, composite design and automation, and move “forward”.
I dont expect it overnight, but staying in “the” old school is just not going to let the “big” 3 survive.
Go look up “Fiberforge” and Hypercar, and in your mind combine it with a “volt” powertrain, and a high performance light weight wankel.
(That can burn gas thru diesel, and you can “swap” at the dealer if anthing goes wrong).
A car body would be reduce to 7 components, the engine moving parts would be reduced drastically. And GM could be “nimble” again.
Jun 30th, 2008 (7:06 pm)Until you get hit by one of the Expeditions that are still on the road. I vote for Nerf.
Jun 30th, 2008 (7:08 pm)The next movie if GM stops the Volt program:
“The Electric Car that Killed GM”
Jun 30th, 2008 (7:13 pm)I’m done with a new ice. I’ll keep driving my 11 year old truck for as long as I have to, and less and less, untill I can buy an electric car. Hopefully american made fueled from our electric grid. My truck will last another ten years easily. That gives the car companies plenty of time to build me what I want. The people that claim to be our political leaders are rich and selfish and ignorant. They saw this coming but don’t care because they will always have access or can afford fuel. Very sad when you can’t take care of your own people because all you care about is world domination. An electric vehicle should be #1priority right now. Do you hear any government leadership on this or did you hear that all gov land solar projects were shut down for two years.
Jun 30th, 2008 (7:14 pm)#117 Glenn West-
You’ve just done a great job of describing E-FLEX.
Jun 30th, 2008 (7:21 pm)Has anyone seen “The Magnificent Seven”?
A decent movie (based on Akira Kurasawa’s ‘Seven Samurai’), it is about a village that is raided and bullied by a gang of desperados who take their food and will kill to keep the villagers in place.
I mention this movie because of the solution the villagers come up with to finally be rid of the gang of desperados. They decide that they will fight and pool what little resources together to buy guns at the border. While at the border (with the USA) they happen apon Chris, who performs a singular act of heroism right in fron t of their eyes. They ask him to help them get weapons but he tells them it is better to get me, which would be cheaper and more effective.
Ultimately, the Seven cowboys that are recruited fight off the bandits but more fighting is going to be needed. The weak minded and cowardly people in the village think that they can go back to the old ways and so betray the ‘magnificent’ seven and assist the bandits in trapping them.
My point, if you can’t see it yet, is that the weak minded people and cowards (like those at the WSJ) are trying to sway those uf us who know that there is only one path to the future. The Magnificent Seven (the people working on the Volt project at GM) need to keep fighting and to know that we are with them. The electric car is coming and if GM does not bring it to us, then another manufacturer will. GM can get those supposed ‘lost electric car fans’ back but it will need to stay the course.
The Volt is the iPod of cars, and I think that it will sell like one. Just make sure you hire the best ad agency money can buy.
Jun 30th, 2008 (7:28 pm)The best thing that GM could do (but they won’t) is modularize the ICE/Generator (making it a “genset”). Then everyone could tinker/replace to their hearts content, and we could easily switch to any backup fuel available OR leave it in the garage and save the weight during our normal commute!
Jun 30th, 2008 (7:28 pm)This guy thinks this is a repeat of the 1970′s oil crisis, and that just repeating the same 1970′s market change to cars with a few better MPG will work again.
Well, this isn’t the 1970′s.
And repeating the 1970′s isn’t going to cut it.
Jun 30th, 2008 (7:31 pm)#92 Jackson says: “… but I hope someone is going to insist upon getting that dried sludge back to the farmer’s field/switchgrass plot, and budget that energy cost into the production figures.”
The idea is to have cellulosic ethanol processing plants distributed closer to where the energy crops are grown in order to keep bulk transportation costs down. This would include transporting biomass to the processing plant, as well as transporting byproducts back to the farm for fertilizer.
These locally distributed ethanol plants would probably produce a crude ethanol that would be sent to more centralized plants for further refining, and mixing with gasoline to make E85. Transportation costs for the crude ethanol would be relativly low since this is a high energy density liquid. In other words, the weight and volume of the source biomass is many times more than the ethanol it produces.
Jun 30th, 2008 (8:01 pm)Many people here speak as if the big SUV is gone forever and that it’s self-evident that vehicles must get smaller, lighter and less powerful to solve our energy problems. I’m not so sure about that. The future of the big SUV may look grim right now, but it is practically an inherent American desire to own such a vehicle, and I bet they will resurface as soon as the cost of owning and powering them becomes affordable again. Is it such a stretch to think that GM could be producing a 100 MPC + 60 MPG E-REV Hummer-like vehicle by 2020? In some ways the current situation is like the 70′s and early 80′s in that people will buy smaller, cheaper, more fuel efficient cars for a while, but things will almost certainly return to the historical status quo after a decade or two. The major difference between now and the 70s/80s is that we should end up with a more economically stable, domestically generated fuel source this time around.
Jun 30th, 2008 (8:22 pm)If I was running GM and had to choose which way to go and it was an either / or I would close down all gasoline powered vehicle plants that were not profitable at this moment and put all engineering resources towards the volt and its offspring. As someone upthread wrote, this is going to be the Iphone of cars. The only constraint is going to be how many and how fast they can build them.
Whenever the economy heads south and a lot of people are hurting they tend to focus their anger on something tangible. Its pretty hard for people to get focused on evil suited bankers that help create the housing bubble and its collapse but they will have absolutely no trouble focusing on some mideast oil magnate that is ripping a hole in their budget every time they pull into a gas station or try and heat their house. Think of the ad agency that is going to get the Volt. How much fun is it going to be to make commercials that imply buying a Volt will be payback. Especially when the time comes and the markets see it coming for real the price of oil is going to collapse. How many people in this country would love to have our president get up and tell some oil shiek to GFY because we don’t need any more of what you are selling. The emotional drive behind this vehicle will be something to behold.
Jun 30th, 2008 (8:52 pm)While more fuel-efficient cars would be a plus, we need a bigger step. Until someone comes up with an inexpensive battery that can drive a normal car for 200+ miles, I think the Volt’s the winner now. My reasoning is both big-picture and small-picture.
Big picture, the improving standard of living in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) means that the world is going to keep increasing it’s oil use. Until recently, oil consumption was going up at 5% per year worldwide. Considering that a hybrid car gets about 25% better mileage than a non-hybrid, that means that if all of the world’s vehicles were ‘magically’ converted to hybrids tomorrow, it would only solve the problem for 5 years. That’s not enough for a long-term solution. We need something like the Volt that improves overall mileage by 300% or more to solve this problem in the long run.
Small picture, I’m looking forward to the Volt so that I can get some of my freedom back. When Hurricane Katrina hit the gulf coast, my wife and I decided that the patriotic thing to do would be to reduce our gas consumption. We came up with a plan to cut our driving to the bare minimum, and managed to cut our total driving from 25,000 miles per year to about 13,000 miles per year for our two cars. However, this means that we gave up impromptu shopping trips, going to the movies, driving to the city (we only take mass transit), and even my last college reunion (it was 900 miles round-trip – too much gas). By planning all of our driving like a NASA mission we cut our driving almost in half, but lost a lot of fun and freedom along the way. To me, the Volt means getting some of this freedom back, without sending our oil dollars overseas.
Mr. Lutz, I’m ready to buy. Bring out the Volt.
Jun 30th, 2008 (9:11 pm)“an electric car isn’t a mass market product for Detroit Three buyers, most of whom live in the heartland. ”
No way! That’s old school thinking! It’s the advice that Ford would (is) taking. And why should GM scrap the most exciting car to come out since (including) the Corvette.
The other thing is, if GM did scrap the Volt, it would take them 50 years to live down the fact that they “killed the electric car”, again! Oh, that would be great for P.R..
Jun 30th, 2008 (9:41 pm)124 Nixon says:
This guy thinks this is a repeat of the 1970’s oil crisis, and that just repeating the same 1970’s market change to cars with a few better MPG will work again.
Well, this isn’t the 1970’s.
And repeating the 1970’s isn’t going to cut it.
So right. Any one not producing some sort of EV will go out of business.
Doing things the old way have brought GM to the bring of Chapter 11. The Volt is a game changer, and they can’t do without it.
Jun 30th, 2008 (9:49 pm)The Volt will be completely unneccessary and we can all go back to driving massive SUVs as soon as $1.20 cellulosic ethanol and $1.25 algae-grown biodiesel are available in virtually unlimited quantities at every gas station. Anybody seen a gas station selling these products? Anybody have a solid business plan to provide those yet? Nope. Those technologies are even more of a pipe dream than the Volt as of Jun 30, 2008. Until somebody starts selling cheap non-oil fuels, the electrification of the automobile seems like the most promising option we’ve got.
Jun 30th, 2008 (9:56 pm)We seem to see before our eyes, as we slog through this desert economy which Oil has made, this or that vision of a practical electric car; dancing like a daylight phantom, just beyond our reach: fading as we approach, like a shimmering mirage.
Then comes the Volt, which seems solid and real.
Unnervingly, it’s now the venerable General Motors which seems to be shimmering around the edges as we approach … will it also vanish? And with it, perhaps the USA as we have known it?
“What’s good for General Motors is good for the USA,” someone once mocked. Now, it seems literally to be true. The task ahead for GM may determine how America survives in an uncertain future.
There is so much more at stake than just another car, however impressive. This is about a revolution of technology in the cause of freedom. Freedom from the tyranny of foreign-controlled and dwindling Oil, freedom from our subjugation to a global world view which demands our way of life. It’s a “revolution” in the word’s truest sense.
If the Volt dies, and GM folds in the face of Japan, I hope I do not hear later that there was more which could have been done …
Jun 30th, 2008 (10:34 pm)GM has the knowledge to be competitive. Does GM have the commitment to be competitive? That is the 64 million dollar question. I think they need to get serious and find out what keeps their cars getting lower mileage than the Japanese competition. They need to strip out the unnecessary “junk” and stop trying to offer everyone a home stereo system with radio, tape, cd, dvd, etc. Find what is causing the extra weight in the air conditioning system. Trim weight off the engine and transmission. Find the excess weight and cut it out. Take a Honda Fit apart and look at everything Honda has done and copy it. Do what it takes to keep selling vehicles that Americans need to get us through the next 10 – 20 years until the electric car is able to take over the load. And it will take that long to convert most of the cars and light duty trucks.
Jun 30th, 2008 (10:37 pm)#132 Jackson
I don’t know if I would go quite that far, but you are correct to some extent. What is good for GM is good for America. More true today than ever.
Jun 30th, 2008 (10:52 pm)Eric C. #17
“By now they should know that it makes sense to have a well-diversified portfolio, instead of putting all their eggs in one SUV basket.”
*** *** ***
Eric, I believe that this is why GM is still keeping H2 viable. Ridiculous as it sounds it’s best to be prepared for whatever comes about regardless of the picture today. GM has learned the hard way. Right now, they need to work on E85-ing their lineup. This is relatively inexpensive and the sales potential could pay off, especially if they can afford to optimize these engines specifically for ethanol because mileage will improve.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:12 pm)Statik #40
“Amercians have long had trouble with highly ‘efficient’ cars, because the maximization of efficiency always means one other thing– being ‘underpowered,’ so quite simply they have not been built.”
*** *** ***
Not quite. Efficient cars have not been built, because:
a. They are nowhere near as profitable as SUVs which people were
buying en mass w/o GM twisting their arms.
b. In 1976 or ’77 the Chevy Chevette topped all cars world wide with
a 40 mpg highway performance using a CARBURETED engine. They sold like hotcakes well into the 80′s and under that model GM actually made money off them.
Statik, sorry but you’re wrong again. This is about making money, not image. With the former you satisfy your stockholders and survive a lot longer than with the latter. If powerful cars were made, it was because they were more profitable than efficient ones, not because they were powerful per se!
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:19 pm)GM still has to overcome public perception of Japanese vehicles as top quality, and GM products as being a lesser quality. The phrase “legendary Honda reliability” and “Toyota quality” come to mind. This perception may or may not be fact, but many people still view GM that way. How do you overcome firmly held beliefs?
GM’s big problems right now are the Volt’s battery, and time. We need the Volt, ASAP. Now. Right away. Every Prius sold today is a potential GM loss.
I’m not sure, but I think I read somewhere that a large part of the Volt battery’s cost is due to the need to hand assemble each battery cell, and that the assembly process wasn’t well suited the mass production methods. Please correct me if I’m wrong. However, if I’m right, the battery cost will never come down without savings from mass production methods.
I wish GM the best of luck. I believe we all do.
#136 Grizzly – Years ago, I saw a Chevette in Lancaster PA which had been made into a local police car – lights on top and everything. I never laughed so hard in my life. Just thought I’d share a golden moment – thanks for reminding me, Grizzly.
Jun 30th, 2008 (11:56 pm)Dave G. #125
“The idea is to have cellulosic ethanol processing plants distributed closer to where the energy crops are grown in order to keep bulk transportation costs down.”
*** *** ***
Dave, certainly you’re aware that the beauty of cellulosic ethanol is that just about anything short glass or metal can be gasified into ethanol. It is not necessarily dependent on crops of any sort.
Jul 1st, 2008 (12:00 am)#136 Grizzly
“Statik, sorry but you’re wrong again”
Are you serious with this statement? Such an absolute and so antagonistic. Clearly you are not looking for debate, but I’ll go you one post anyhow and let it go.
“If powerful cars were made, it was because they were more profitable than efficient ones, not because they were powerful per se!”
I said Americans weren’t interested in fuel efficiency, they wanted power (which size is also implied), and auto companies were only to happy to oblige. Automakers don’t dictate the car that is in demand and made because of “they are more profitable”.
They can’t just say I will sell only ‘Auto A’ because I make $15,000 over ‘Auto B’ because I only make $5,000. If the market wants Perrier water, they buy Perrier, if they only want tap water, they get tap water.
Now they want cost, so they are giving up power/size. Doesn’t matter what the margin is on a big SUV, big auto has to make smaller less profitable cars now. Regardless of profit, they can’t sell that SUV, they have to sell small or go away forever.
The automakers weren’t dictating to the market what products it was going to sell ie) big SUVs/trucks with ‘more profit’, the American people were demanding them (through the defacto price of cheap gas, further exasporated by a strong US dollar…under that ‘perfect storm’ scenario why would they want a small efficient car?), and that is what has fundamentally changed this market today.
Don’t know why you are quoting the ’76 or ’77 Chevette as a best seller that somehow disproves my point…it actually re-enforces my point, the only other time in American history where people got pushed to smaller cars/more efficient cars was from the oil crisis in 1973 to the energy crisis in 1979.
Handy graph:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg
If you want to see what I’m talking about, plot the ‘best selling’ F-150 to that graph from 1975 on, it is the exact oppposite oil price trend line. You see it increasing as oil went down, then decreasing as oil has been going up.
I’ll leave this thread so you are free to retort. I’ve said my bit, people can decide for themselves who is correct…if they care at all, lol.
/see you on the next one
Jul 1st, 2008 (12:13 am)Why is it that people that live on the East and West coasts seem to get away with referring to everyone else in the rest of the country as huge truck/SUV driving hicks, that are so dumb as to only buy those vehicles from American manufacturers? And that we could not possibly consider driving a new technology vehicle that does not have 22″ all terrain tires and seat 12 people…………
It just gets really insulting sometimes!
I wish Lyle would set up something to show where those 30K+ people on his list are located in the USA and the rest of the world, like he talked about a few months ago. I think it would be a real “eye opener” to the narrow minded reporters that write these silly articles.
As has been stated, many times aboive, we are going to need many different types of vehicles to meet the needs of many diffeent types of drivers. There is no “single solution” that will work.
For the short term, a quick availability of increased mileage vehicles is important. For mid range time frames, BEV and E-REV type vehicle are going to change things dramatically. And long term? Who knows????
JMHO
Jul 1st, 2008 (12:39 am)Um, I am the typical big 3 buyer and the volt TOTALLY appeals to me. Performance, environmentally friendly, long trips…this is perfect, mind you my other vehicle would be the 7 passenger one mentioned in the article.
Go GM…
Jul 1st, 2008 (1:04 am)J.D. Power on June Sales: GM -26.2% Ford -31.4%, Chrysler -30.1%
Automotive News [AN] reports that the Wall Street Journal as got a hold of a J.D. Power report on June’s sales stats. As you can see above, it ain’t pretty. In fact, it’s ugly as Hell. If J.D.’s mob are even remotely accurate, the U.S. market is undergoing a contraction violent enough to make a mother of five think twice. “J.D. Power and Associates is predicting the June seasonally adjusted annual sales rate will plunge to 12.5 million vehicles, down from 16.3 million last June. That is far below what other analysts have projected for the month’s sales.” Especially GM, which predicted (at last count) 14m new vehicle sales for the year. J.D. Power expects Toyota’s sales to tank by 6.6 percent. “That would give it a market share of 18.7 percent, near GM’s predicted 19.2 percent share.” Yes, well, there is no way GM can sustain itself at a 19.2 percent market share of 12.5m vehicles. Chrysler? Again, I reckon their company-wide summer break will be terminal. Meanwhile, the real numbers will be released on Tuesday, and TTAC will be there.
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/jd-power-on-june-sales-gm-262-ford-314-chrysler-301/
Jul 1st, 2008 (1:10 am)Statik #139
Sorry, but I can’t introduce you to the unmentionable one. Good news is he’s easy enough to find on Youtube and I believe the two of you have plenty to discuss! Best of luck and best wishes!
Grizzly
Jul 1st, 2008 (1:19 am)NZ # 142
GM definitely has to have something to sell. E-85 vehicles are the answer until the Volt it’s just matter of time. This whole scenario is not pretty and the path of least cost (E-85) vehicles is the answer short of electrification of the automobile.
Jul 1st, 2008 (1:58 am)I’ll tell you what keeps me coming back to this site: The prospect of driving my 22 miles round trip to work without ever using the ICE. Then on those obligatory family visits to Southern Calif. and to Nebraska, I’ll hop in the SAME vehicle knowing that I’ve paid for my gas several times over by not using gas in my daily commute. It’s a beautiful thing and others get it to. I’ll even gas up with E-85 in Ogallala just for the hell of it.
Jul 1st, 2008 (2:14 am)I too will not buy a gasser from anyone. My next car will be fully electric. Period.
Oh, and if it happens that it isn’t a Volt because of cost or whatever… so be it.
Jul 1st, 2008 (4:54 am)most people commute alone. Why not do a car like the mixim concept but without the third seat? If I could have a two seater erev for 15-20k I’d consider buying two just for the color options. In all seriousness, not every model needs to be a family car or an overpriced sport model. There’s an incredible opportunity in the budget single occupant commuter that I haven’t seen effectively targeted.
Jul 1st, 2008 (5:03 am)The Saturn SL2 got 42 mpg. My 92 Subaru wagon gets 30 mpg and it has 235,000 miles on it. It has plenty of acceleration. The new Subarus have bigger engine are heaver and get worse gas milage. I think the technology is there for more efficient vehicles. The problem is that the lineup is geared to yesterdays buyer.
The solutions will be a mix of technologies (I will be suprised if fool cells are part of it) and cars like the Volt are important. I see at least one plug-in in everyones garage.
I am happy to see America responding to high gas prices with some action, it is sorely needed. I believe we have hit peak oil production and energy prices are just getting higher. Although the oil companies are taking advantage of the situation by tacking on extra profit, the real problem is world consumption and it is only going to increase.
The answer is not to open up our most sensitive areas to drilling. At best, when they came on line in about 6 years, we would only have about a years fix to our addiction. We need to fix our consumption problems now. That oil will be needed in the distant future for other products, not for just burning it up.
Jul 1st, 2008 (8:24 am)#126 MDDave says: “The future of the big SUV may look grim right now, but it is practically an inherent American desire to own such a vehicle, and I bet they will resurface as soon as the cost of owning and powering them becomes affordable again.”
The SUV craze is relatively recent. It wasn’t that long ago that most women wouldn’t be caught dead driving anything that remotely resembled a truck. Face it – it’s just fashion. It will pass when something else comes along to take it’s place.
People don’t need huge off-road vehicles to drive to the supermarket or commute to work. Small minivans will continue, station wagons will rise again, but SUVs for the masses are a thing of the past. Get used to the idea.
Jul 1st, 2008 (9:15 am)It’s too late for GM to turn back now. The “Don’t buy or lease any new gasoline powered cars!” protest has entrenched itself in the minds of the Global consumer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaMeCT_GoO0
GM needs to precede full throttle, to release the new automotive technology they’ve been sitting on for a while. What ever happen to their skate-board fuel cell chassis on their Hy-Wire or the Equinox Fuel Cell, even the Sequel? All great concepts collecting dust. If Honda can lease their FCX Clarity fuel cell car for $600/month in California what’s GM waiting for?
GM you need to leave the past behind and embrace the future.
Jul 1st, 2008 (9:21 am)#142 NZ David
Yeah I had a ‘boo’ at that article myself. Seems about right to me. The overall sales of 12.5 million vehicles, down from 16.3 million last June, actually is a little better than I thought.
But as you say, we are reporting on someone who is “reporting” on someone else, who may have the numbers. Regardless, we will know today.
Jul 1st, 2008 (10:34 am)The Volt will be a bargaining chip with the government when GM asks for a bailout. The Volt can not rescue GM with its low sales volume. It will not stop the bleeding. High mileage vehicles are the answer but there is not enough money to go around for a totally new product line. It will be an interesting 2 years.
Jul 1st, 2008 (10:36 am)#133 N Riley & #139 Statik:
Right.
#142 NZDavid:
As to Chrysler and the summer break, I have to confess a bit of evil pleasure in the apparent unravelling of Cerberus. Another mythical figure Nemesis lent her name as the title of Professor Chalmers Johnson’s second book. I have mentioned it before as a prescient commentary on our present predicaments.
The mission of Nemesis was to search the world for those guilty of arrogance and hubris, and to punish them for same. Looks like she caught up with Cerberus.
Maybe GM will be spared by the fact that Cerberus and their ilk are too preoccupied and broke trying to clean up the messes resulting from the punisment of Nemesis to gobble up GM at a fire sale price.
Jul 1st, 2008 (10:39 am)#152 Ed:
Alas, I can only agree.
Jul 1st, 2008 (12:40 pm)#142 NZ David
#151 ME
I guess their numbers weren’t totally accurate. Ford is out with numbers, off 28%…the article had them at -31.4%
Jul 1st, 2008 (12:42 pm)Ford designed the Nuclear Automobile in 1950. What happened to it? Have we lost 58 years of devolpment?
Jul 1st, 2008 (1:22 pm)My answer to the question is “no.”
I will say this though, if they can seriously cut the cost of the Volt and get rid of the gasoline generator they should do that. Or at the very least go ahead and make that an option (I’ve read it being discussed).
Jul 1st, 2008 (3:35 pm)Two different approaches. One says “go to the base” the other says “expand the base.” In politics it would be the Rove vs. Obama approaches — put your energy into turnout or register new voters.
While each has its merits in this case the latter seems to be better. GM has an aging base. It needs the base to get younger. In the VOLT is has a unique opportunity to expand its brand to a set of people who otherwise would never think of a GM vehicle. And once a person has bought a GM vehicle they’re more likely to do it again if the experience has been decent.
I think that’s where Lutz is going — upscale to Cadillac with the VOLT technology for a younger and more upscale set of buyers. The WSJ reporter needs to take the green eyeshades off and think more like Steve Jobs.
Jul 1st, 2008 (3:44 pm)This has been said before, but it should be stated again: The Volt model (electric drive with batteries and an ICE or other type engine driving a generator) is the most efficient means of transportation, and one that the railroads adopted long ago for their locomotives. The electric drive does not use energy when stopped at a light or traffic jam, and the ICE/other engine can then be sized and tuned to run at its most efficient speed. The combined effect is the most MPG that can be physically attained for a given size and weight of vehicle. And, it can be applied to any size and type of vehicle. The Volt model should be able to outperform any standard ICE vehicle in combined performance and MPG. It’s the future of automobile development.
Jul 1st, 2008 (4:52 pm)As always the Wall Street Journal gets it wrong once again. I really don’t know what kind of arrogance or is it ignorance that drives their comments about GM as even someone like myself can do the research and find out that GM is indeed doing all three of what this journalist wants as well as being able to build the Volt.
I say this because there are numerous sites on the Internet devoted to Diesels that as putting out this information about GM’s upcoming 4.5L V-8 Diesel for initially light duty trucks, and later anyplace a Gas V-8 is currently used. The trade journal “Light & Medium Truck” went as far as to forecast a while back that the Gas V-8 was destined to a “niche” market of on high performance cars and the like since in Trucks the usage of Diesel was going to move down scale into the smaller “Light Duty Trucks” The GM 4.5L Diesel will only produce 305HP but will produce 600FtLbs of Torque which is more meaningful all the time while getting 29MPG Hwy, and before you detractors start to attack diesel cars I might direct you to do a little research about the newest generation of Diesels which are almost impossible to tell from their gasoline counterparts while sitting at the stop light. The only place you will really see the difference is the amount of time spent refueling since Diesels have a huge MPG advantage over Gasoline, and even if the price of Diesel is currently higher it has historically been lower and I suspect it will return there in the near future as the Oil Companies are increasingly coming under investigation for their monopolistic and predatory practices.
The Europeans are already at a 70% mixture of Diesel for cars, and many companies such as GM has divisions in Europe that can supply smaller Diesels such as 1.3L to 2.9L so it will take a very short time for GM to make this transition, and once the amount of new pickup trucks being sold transitions to a market force adequate to make Diesel Fuel more common in the USA it would be very easy for GM to leap on this opportunity.
I could go on about GM’s commitment to Coskata and many other things they are doing, and the fact Diesel could be made more efficiently than Gasoline since the refining process is simpler but I have already I hope made my point that these so called expert journalists are far from it, and I hope more people think for themselves and read independent sources like this one (Keep Up The Great Work Lyle) and the countless others than look toward the Wall Street Journal for guidance and unbiased news.
The truth is the WSJ guys are all about ultimate greed and shortest Return On Investment, and what GM is doing pouring money into research that will delay profits doesn’t make the investment community as happy as they would like.
In closing Rick Wagoneer even said the second generation of Volt will come with a Diesel Engine so just connect the dots the future for what internal combustion engines we use will be switching to Diesel and/or BioFuels over the next few years and this Wall Street Journalist propably has money tied up in Oil Futures which would tend to make him biased againist Gm doing anything other than conventional fuels. I also might add that as GM is doing so is Ford and Chrysler as there are smaller duty Diesel Engine plans from those two as well for Light Duty Trucks in the USa so the times of 5 grades of Gasoline like 7-11′s pumps and no Diesel at all are over for the retailers and those that shift sooner than later will be able to address this new market demand.
BTW on a side note Diesel can be reformed on the fly to provide the Hydrogen for Fuel Cell cars so in the short term the progress of Hydrogen cars could be in advance of the massive changes needed in the Infrastructure to dispense a non-liquid fuel like hydrogen.
Just a thought but just maybe some of these news sources might not be unbiased when they are attacking the Volt before it even is able to ship it’s first unit.
Hmmm !!
Jul 1st, 2008 (5:09 pm)# 160 Elmer Croan
Diesel is an absolutely horrible alternative. You’re absolutely right that it’s a great fuel from an effeciency standpoint, but it is also the worst polluter and a documented health hazard. I just don’t see the point in killing hundreds of thousands of Americans in the name of diesel effeciency.
I just did a search on “diesel health issues” and came up with a lot of hits. This is the first one and it seems very well done and thorough. If you don’t like it feel free to look at any of the other articles — all the health professionals say the same thing.
http://www.nrdc.org/air/transportation/pd-ebus.asp
Jul 1st, 2008 (5:40 pm)Hmmmm……. in looking at this some more maybe the new diesels are safe from a health standpoint. My info may be outdated. Seems like the Clinton Adminstration did some good here and the courts eventually forced the Bush Administration, kicking and screaming, to actually do something constructive.
If diesel is safe then I’m all for it.
Jul 1st, 2008 (5:48 pm)Answer: NO!
Jul 1st, 2008 (6:57 pm)The increase in the cost of diesel was caused (so I’ve understood) by a government mandate to reduce Sulphur levels. The (mostly European) diesel designs which can take advantage of this, for the most part, do not yet exist on this continent. Old Diesels already here smoke just as bad as they always did on the new fuel, but it’s increased cost is raising the price of everything that’s delivered by truck (which would be pretty much everything).
Yep, that sounds like the Clinton administration.
Still, things should even out eventually, as new tech diesels arrive. It was something which would have had to be addressed; but we’d have gotten there eventually as a matter of course, when the new tech was actually available.
It’s just that it’s another case of the cart before the horse: with detrimental economic effects: The environmentally enlightened care not for such economic bagatelles.
Jul 1st, 2008 (6:59 pm)“Build it and they will come”
I want a practical electric car that is cutting edge, sporty, and cool.
I want a Tesla Roadster — but it’s too expensive.
I want a Fiskar Karma — but it’s too expensive.
I want a Tesla Whitestar — but who knows if they’ll actually build it.
I then saw the Volt and I wanted one. It is the first time in a very long time that I have seen a new car and said “I have to have it”.
And, stupidly, I’m willing to pay a premium to be one of the first on the block to buy a GM car which I have never ever wanted.
Somebody has to be the first to build a serial hybrid with lithium ion batteries and a “range extender” (can I have mine in a biodiesel flavor please?)
Can people stop being provocateurs like the guys at Ford or the WSJ writer, whiners that “it costs too much and now I won’t be able to be one of the first kids on on the block to own one waaaaaa!” and realize that it is people like me with more money than brains who will help subsidize later roll outs that will be affordable to rest of you, just like with HDTVs, CD players, DVD players, air bags, antilock brakes, and almost all new technological innovations.
Let it be GM and let it be soon.
Jul 1st, 2008 (7:05 pm)I agree with the first guy, both is needed.
GM is allready planning of using the 1.4L motor in the next Cobalt. I think people forget that a new car can’t be engineered and produced overnight.
I think if they can get diesel prices in check that would help with people being interested in them. My ’04 gets 12 mpg on average but it is a big heavy motor moving a big heavy truck ad a trailer and car 1/2 the time as well. Get a smaller diesle like the VW Rabbits getting 40+ mpg and diesel the sameprice as 87 octane or less and there would be a market for them. Older diesels are selling for big $$$$ on e bay and these are cars that people would not of even looked at 2 years ago.
Jul 2nd, 2008 (2:32 am)Well I guess no one wants to not use oil,how much are you getting paid to say that. Electric is the future open your mind oil is a has been no more oil Sure lots of people are going to loose their job , But if they are smart they can start planning on quick charge stations that will take the place of gas station. Sure and electric motor is easier to replace and does not need as much maintance ,Thats y they dont want to build them but they are coming and they will stay.The first electric car was built in the 1800s its time it came back.
Jul 2nd, 2008 (10:31 am)I am afraid I will not be buying another car until I can buy an all electric. I am sick of the oil companies monopoly in the market place, and Tesla has shown the world that the electric can be produced. GM, if they want to get out of the tank will get the VOLT into production, everyone will buy it. The battery technology is matured. Then make a great sedan, and then trucks and suv’s. Electric is green, not hybrid. They need to beat toyota and honda to their own game.
Jul 2nd, 2008 (12:28 pm)We have one 16 yr. old car and we were going to buy a new one this year, ,however, with fuel prices and the oil speculation continually raising prices, we are now going to wait until we can buy an electric car and let the Arabs drown in their own oil and greed. We need to drill and use our own oil, coal and develop new more eco-friendly solutions too. Smaller cars..America.. now is the time!
Jul 2nd, 2008 (12:35 pm)Mr. While, like all the Dinosoars in this country, always beleive in doing something quick and fast, never the long thought out plan. This is why we are in the mess we are in now. Let’s take a step back when the 1st VCR was created, so dinosoar said it was dumb and Japan made it we brough it. When hybirs were created some dumb dinosoar said nope and Japan once again created it, we brought it. We the we said we wanted a better cellphone the other countries tried, but finally APPLE, gave us what we wanted and we brought it. Let look at Apple, and for once give use what we want an electric car, not just another fuel saving vehicle be a change of life vehicle. Tell White and he old dinosars to stay home with there old ideas. We want new ideas, get those old people out of control in the U S of A and let the young mine (or young thinging mines) take control.
Jul 2nd, 2008 (12:52 pm)Ken:
I normally do not make posts like this, but I have to tell you that your spellling and syntax are so horrible as to make your post almost impossible to read and understand.
I would be a bit worried if “young thinging mines” are what is going to take control………….
Jul 2nd, 2008 (12:56 pm)I too don’t usually correct one’s spelling and grammar but your post #169 was so ill written that it makes you sound like you have a 3rd grade education.
Write, re-read, spell check, re-read and then post. Your credibility goes down the tube when you don’t sound intelligent…writing well is all about that!
Jul 3rd, 2008 (9:47 am)“let the young mine (or young thinging mines) take control.”
he he he.
Jul 3rd, 2008 (2:13 pm)Yes, you are correct; I was a bit hyper when I wrote that comment. Sometimes this happens, when I a bit too hyper….
I did read it, but it was after the fact, i.e. a bit too late.
However, what I was trying to express, is simply this; the old control how we think and want we buy, they tell us, we don’t need it, because they don’t want it.
Think about it. Has this not happen to any of you? You go to work, and you have a better way to get some process done. But Mr. or Mrs. Oldie refuses to change or even look at a proposed new idea. Oh let me point out these individuals don’t have to be old in age, but he or she acts old and thinks old.
You know the type. They start a sentence with “I’ve been doing this for the last xx years”, and simply blow you off with “That won’t work, just keep doing it this way”.
Well, I’m 50 and I’m just tired of hearing “It can’t be done” because some old stuck in the past can’t accept new ways of doing and thinking.
This is what this Mr. White guy sounds like to me.
Jul 4th, 2008 (7:02 pm)I’d love to buy a GM car. Do the followign and I will:
Make them as reliable as a Ford or a Toyota
Stop designing cars for NASCAR wannabes.
Build an interior that’s more like a BMW and less like a Chevy Cobolt.
In short – take what you did in the Malibu, and trasnlate it across your platforms.
Jul 5th, 2008 (6:54 pm)GM should pursue both.. But first decapitate the “skunk works resistant” upper management. The market screams for specific types of vehciles yet GM’s “safe” rule by committee keeps getting it wrong and LATE! I am actually somewhat amazed that the Volt concept got as far as it did before the fuddy duddies at the top (who would be better off being tied to the Buick Division – caterers of ole fartz, and cast off!) did not kill it. I bought my last GM with the 98 Pontiac Grand Prix. It is a piece of plastic schitte and I was reminded of its “luxuriousness” everytime I got into it compared to import interiors at the same price point! It’s value in price retention? Don’t even go there!!! GM can’t even market a decent small vehicle, just look at the Aveo – more garbage!
Jul 8th, 2008 (8:36 am)GM Should move towards the electric car, Hydrogen fuel cell etc.Help dev. the infra structure for fuel cell fill up. Develop solar power sources to produce H2 and phase out of gasoline operated vehicles in time.GM produes some outstanding automobiles, and that’s their direction. And don’t build cars that look like sciion, or prius, style them with the more rally look of a vett, or saturn sky type look. And find ways to give the electrics the power of a V8, like the Tesla car.