Besides price, another question that we often debate is how many Chevy Volts does GM actually plan to build.
Since the concept was first announced in January 2007, three numbers that come up in the press most often are 10,000, 60,000, and 100,000.
Two of them have come up again.
In discussions I have had with Mr. Lutz and Thomas Stephens, GM VP of powertrain, a lot of discussion has gone into deciding on the number for the initial production run. Clearly there must be a balance between the desire to satiate public demand and the risk management of pouring out too many cars using revolutionary drivetrain technology.
It seems like since Volt production intention was announced, GM has settled on some figures.
GM vice-chair Bob Lutz had a blogger dinner and members of the CarDomain Blog were in attendance.
Not going into too much detail they write:
“They (GM) are expecting to build and sell 10,000 (Chevy Volts) in 2011 and 60,000 in 2012.”
I was able to confirm and clarify this statement with Dee Allen who was also in attendance and is GM director of marketing communications.
Dee told me “Bob said the first 12 months of production (beginning in 2010) would be around 10k, but in second year 60k would be more like it.”
So there you have it. Now, who will be those lucky first 10,000 ?
This entry was posted on Thursday, June 19th, 2008 at 8:16 pm and is filed under Financial, Production. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:19 pm)There must be hundreds of the Volt believers hanging around waiting for each new topic…
On your marks…get set…..GO!…
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Jun 19th, 2008 (8:26 pm)Well, hello Lyle’s list!
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Jun 19th, 2008 (8:28 pm)I’m sure the 10k will find homes. There has to be at least 10k Americans who are willing to gut their gas bill no matter the cost..
Whether I get a 2011 model or a 2012 depends on the final cost. 35k and under final cost, I can swing. If it’s over…I may have to hold off till they get the 20 mile version.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (8:28 pm)That last line sounds like a tease Lyle. Have they actually talked to you about honoring your list? Does your list put us in order, or do you just bank all of our names? Can we drop back and take a year 2 model if we want?
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Jun 19th, 2008 (8:30 pm)Lutz can’t even figure out how much the Volt’s gonna cost yet.
Why does the senile gimp even bother yanking these random numbers out of his ass?
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Jun 19th, 2008 (8:40 pm)I’m in!
I’m out!
I’m in!
I’m out!
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Jun 19th, 2008 (8:40 pm)Hey Roboto,
Why is it I feel you would never have the balls to speak to Mr Lutz like this in person. Give your rude mouth a break please.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (8:46 pm)I’m exhausted with all this conflicting news. I think I need to take a break from here for awhile. It’s enough to drive one crazy.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (8:53 pm)The time-line seems a little fuzzy to me.
Is the first 10K all in 2010, or from 2010Q4 to 2011Q4?
In other words… is the 10K number because they only have 2 months in 2010 to build them, or because they will be building them at a slower rate for the first 12 months of production?
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Jun 19th, 2008 (8:56 pm)I would like to see some type of recognition/honor for the list Lyle has put together.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:09 pm)If they go by the list I will get one the first year!!!
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:14 pm)I’d like to be among the 1st 10,000, if it doesn’t cost too much. But, I’ll not hold my breath. There are many ahead of me, some with deep pockets!
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:18 pm)We need Larry Thomas, the soup nazi from Seinfeld, to be GM’s spokesman, and give the following announcements.
————————————————–
You insulted Bob ? NO VOLT for you.
You can’t afford $40000.00 ? NO VOLT for you.
Did you say “take my name off the list” ? NO VOLT for you.
You wanted to stuff Tony and his Volt 20 idea in a Bonneville trunk and put it in a car crusher? NO VOLT for you.
You submitted posts pretending to be the CEO of GM ? NO VOLT for you.
You compared the Volt to a Prius ? NO Volt for you.
You’re that “Statik” guy ? NO VOLT for you.
You want a Volt with no ICE ? NO VOLT for you.
You want a Volt in WHAT color ? NO VOLT for you.
You want us to hurry up with the VOLT ? NO VOLT for you.
You complain about dealer markup ? NO VOLT for you.
—————————————————–
After a while of this, 10000 Volts would be plenty to go around, with some left over. Don’t feel bad – he just told me to take a hike, too. (grin)
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:20 pm)The slow ramp-up will give them plenty of time to iron out supply chain problems — and it surely reduces the number of vehicles to recall in the case of a very serious problem. Sounds like a very practical approach — albeit a frustrating one for all those waiting for a Volt!
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:29 pm)120 or 240 Volts would not spark my interest.
480 Volts would be a shameful waste of marketing dollars.
I would be happy to see 4160 Volts
I would thrilled to see 12,700 Volts
I will get a charge out of 13.8 kiloVolts in the first year.
Come-on Everyone. Let’s get energized at 69 KiloVolts in 2012.
This is getting to be fun! What is the next number…?
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:30 pm)#9 Paul R.:
My take is that 10,000 will be produced during the first 12 months of production (starting in Nov 2010) and 60,000 will be produced during the next 12 months of production.
I am still in for 4 Volts. I believe I signed up for the waiting list in April or May 2007 so hopefully I am pretty high on the waiting list. If only GM will honor the waiting list somehow.
Great job GM & Lyle!!!
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:32 pm)Well?
10,000 units pumped out by December 2011. Somebody tell me that this is great news and another target hit. I dare you!
How many cars might we see in 2010? Think Tesla…maybe car #1,#2 and outside shot at #3. Token only. 10,000 is nothing.
That Hamtramck Assembly plant spat out 120K of the Lucerne/DTS (the line that is going down to make way) without even breaking a sweat in ‘06, (the new opel-whatever is starting up there in 09). It is so efficient, they actually axed 800 odd workers there when sales dropped by 13% (they canned a shift a week after they finalized their last UAW contract (sound familar?))
If they are saying 10,000 Volts, that means they are truly rolling ‘actual’ production in mid to late 2011 (not the fuss and tinker dozen or so copies a month testing the line).
10,000 is about a month’s roll on a new body platform, about two weeks for the plant in full swing.
(Example: The Oshawa plant (about twice the size compartively speaking) now assembles about 1,544 cars A DAY).
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:32 pm)#13 Terry K:
Great list!
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:37 pm)Hmm….that’s not a lot of year 1 production. I’m surprised how different the year 1 and year 2 numbers are. My assumption was that it would be something more like 25K the first year and 50K the second….not 6x the number the second year. The demand will likely be the highest in the first year so you’d think GM would want to tap that.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:37 pm)Dee told me “Bob said the first 12 months of production (beginning in 2010) would be around 10k, but in second year 60k would be more like it.”
So this could read in the fall of 2009 production begins with the first Volts available in 2010. So the Volt release will be for the 2010 model year and not 2011, (maybe)?
The 10,000 Volts that are for sale in 2010 will be a small real world test group to collect data from. Corrections/changes would be quickly implemented in the production line so that the next year could ramp up to full production. Sounds very logical 14 o.jeff. GM would be using 10,000 consumer sales for their test fleet instead of power companies/corporations like Toyota is planning for their plug-in cars (leasing).
Sign me up.
GM needs to hurry, the Th!nk Ox car, due 2011 sounds pretty nice. Th!ink may offer direct factory sales. GM should consider direct factory sales to eliminate dealer markups. I’ll gladly fly to the factory to ‘pickup’ the car.
http://www.businessweek.com/print/innovate/content/jun2008/id20080616_955452.htm
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:37 pm)#16 Jimmy
Only one to a customer to avoid scalping.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:39 pm)I don’t believe I have seen a post form Doug Korthof in a while. He swore GM would never produced the Volt. I hope he is eating his words now.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:40 pm)Terry K #13
LOL, I sure hope not. To get your Volt you’d have to approach the order counter the right way, side steps etc. or else….”No…Volt…” “Come back in two years”.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:41 pm)same numbers we have heard before.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:45 pm)#24
Yes and I doubt they’re concrete.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:46 pm)As I have said all along, the E-Flex is going to be the best system out there. To bad they aren’t going to make many and drag their feet on implementing the E-Flex across all brands. I suspect that liability issues with the new system has them taking the slow road. Unfortunately the slow road will leave the door wide open for Toyoto, Ford, Mitsubishi and Nissan to all leave GM in the dust even though they have the best design.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:47 pm)#13 Terry K
You’re that “Statik” guy ? NO VOLT for you.
Hey!
Really?
You’d think I’d get a free one just to go away by now.
(That is actually my cunning plan)
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:48 pm)@ #13, Terry K.
>> You wanted to stuff Tony and his Volt 20 idea in a Bonneville
>> trunk and put it in a car crusher? NO VOLT for you.
Yeah… that was me. (*hangs head in shame*)
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:50 pm)This is what bothers me. It really is going to be a fight to get this car. The numbers are not high enough. It will be like getting a Wii for the first 2 years.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:50 pm)I posted this comment in the previous thread, but it was comment #307 – probably long after many people lost interest in the topic. I thought it was a good point that needed fleshing out, so I’ll post it again here…
$40k times 10k is $400M. I thought GM put more than $400M into the Volt. If so, how is $40k the break even price? If GM put a billion dollars into the Volt and they make only 10k Volts, then the break even price is $100k.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (9:57 pm)I am late on the list….{sobbing sobbing sobbing}
I don’t have $40,000….{pouting pouting pouting}
I don’t think I will get me one of them thar’ Volts…{crying crying crying}
Maybe I can rig up a couple hundred DeWalt battery operated screwdriver guns, with a few belts and pulleys to my sad 1996 Dodge Caravan. {hooray! hooray! hooray!}
Patent pending….so if you want to get on my list just send me an email (no I am not publishing my email address…}. I promise to release my design by end of the month. Just need to perform a little HALT/HASS testing, and she will be ready for the market place.
Come on I know you want one!
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Jun 19th, 2008 (10:01 pm)I won’t pay anywhere near $40K, so I guess I’ll have to wait till 2012.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (10:01 pm)I’m number seven thousand something. Man I hope GM considers Lyle’s list.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (10:23 pm)Newsflash: Tesla Motors founder Martin Eberhard will buy a Chevy Volt.
“I will be one of the first owners of a Chevy Volt if I get the chance. It will look great in my garage next to my Tesla!”
http://teslafounders.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/smartie-is-at-the-party/
(scroll to end)
Weird turn of events since Who Killed the Electric Car. GM were the evil ones. Now Elon Musk is Darth Vader.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (10:24 pm)Reading GM-Volt is an addiction. And the cure is 29 months away…
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Jun 19th, 2008 (10:29 pm)10,000 in the 1st year is still a very good number for an BEV! And may be the right number if the price is indeed the latest rumored $40k. At that price I don’t think you’ll have to worry about dealer markup.
Is the 10,000 just for North America market, or is that worldwide?
Regarding Lyle’s “interest” list…. good luck. Even if honored, you’d still have to live in one of the limited areas they’d be selling it. But I don’t know why they would honor it over GM’s own “interest” list over at http://www.voteforvolt.com/ or other fan sites. But either way, I think anyone who meets the residency requirements won’t have a problem if the list price is $40+k.
In any case, it’s good to hear they’ve nailed down their planned production numbers as it means they are getting their ducks all in a row for the roll out.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (10:41 pm)MAN-TO-MAN ADVICE TO BOB LUTZ: HEY BOB, SPLURGE & GET YOURSELF A NEW TIE!!!*
*When I shook your hand in NYC this March and in EVERY ONE of the many photos I’ve seen of you with a tie —it’s always this same pink/white stripe one!
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Jun 19th, 2008 (10:41 pm)There will be no $40K Volts. By the time the Dealers get through marking-up the prices due to limited quantities there will be no bargains. GM will not cut out their dealers and sell to those on the list. They will, however, thank you for putting your name on the list and letting them know that you are interested. They will then advise you to see your nearest Dealer who will rob-you-blind.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (10:58 pm)#34 OhmExcited
An “E-Flex” Sky next to Martin’s personal Tesla Roadster would look great as well…
I guess we won’t go down that road.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (11:02 pm)PS to my post 37……
Also, Bob, haven’t Rick or Fritz been kind enough to at least mention to you that both clip-on ties & tie clips are SO 1970’s?!?
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Jun 19th, 2008 (11:03 pm)Well, I guess it’s good to know that there won’t be enough to buy one when I’ll be buying a new car in 2010.
So, the price hurts less.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (11:06 pm)Same info as before, 10K ramping to 60K planned, but can increase to more if demand is high. Unit cost to GM $40K, which I expect them to sell at cost minus any goverment rebate the unions can convince the Dem Congress to give them.
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Jun 19th, 2008 (11:19 pm)I don’t know if any of you ever saw what happened to the C6 Z06
Corvettes. The dealers marked them up 10-15K over the already obscene
price in the 70s and guess what… they sold them any way. So I think you
can forget 40K. You’ll have to pony up a lot more if these babies really
catch on especially if there are only 10,000 the first year. I’m not sure that
even the 60,000 slated for the next year will be enough.
Now if Toyota comes out with something similar, all bets are off. JMHO
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Jun 19th, 2008 (11:19 pm)PPS to my posts 37 & 40…..
One more thing, Bob. Are the bars behind you in the photo above between the waiting room and the psych ward at Detroit General (where your twin brother stays)?
Just kidding, really! (But I know you, as a car salesman, are used to it!)
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Jun 19th, 2008 (11:24 pm)If I have to wait 2+ yrs and pay $40k, I’ll wait and buy a OX from the THINK company.
http://think.no/think/content/view/full/261
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Jun 19th, 2008 (11:30 pm)Well it has been an interesting day. GM and their dealers should be able to make a lot of money on the Volt—-for a year or two. By that time Honda and Toyota will catch up to them. Toyota is the winner here no matter how you call it. They built a CHEAP hybrid. It can save some gas but nothing like what the Volt can do. They are the ones known for a hybrid. Once they make the switch to a REAL hybrid they will kill GM. I will bet that they can bring it in well under $40,000. Gm is still playing the game. I think they may well soon hit the brick wall. There are just to many old men at GM making stupid decisions. JMHO
Take Care
Arch
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:11 am)60k the second year is surprising. They can’t do that kind of volume until the Gen2 cost reductions hit. Losing $5000 each on 10,000 cars is only $50 million, a small part of the development budget. Losing money on 60,000 cars is another matter entirely. Even Toyota didn’t do that.
If production starts in November 2010 that means the cost-reduced version must be ready by November 2011. Wow.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:14 am)#33 Firefly
I’m with you somewhere in the 7000s as well.
Is your nickname for the TV show Firefly? It’s my favorite thing.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:36 am)#47 Doggy
Along that same line I wonder what advancements in battery technology will bring in the next 2-3 years. The Volt is priced with today’s known technology which could change dramatically should there be something new in the battery world.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:41 am)GM needs competition, and so do consumers. I really would like to see what Chrysler and Ford come up with, but I have a feeling they will just watch and see what happens. The Japanese probably won’t be as patient. If Japanese auto makers come out with competition, GM will only have its handsome looks and spiffy bow tie to draw in customers.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:52 am)46 Arch,
Honda is going to have a less expensive hybrid than the Prius less than 12 months from now.
Note that the FCX (which is already in very limited release) is an electric vehicle with a li-ion battery. If the Volt were a GOOD idea Honda could build one in short order by swapping the hydrogen fuel stack for a trivial gas engine.
Also note that the FCX is actually the complicated “moon shot” that GM will be trying to achieve after they complete the relatively trivial “moon shot” that is the Volt.
I guess we can stop all this spin about GM being so far ahead technologically.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:00 am)“You can’t afford $40,000.00 ? NO VOLT for you.”
Ha Ha Ha Haaaaaa!!!!! I love it!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:44 am)That’s why I said at the other post that people making such a racket about the price should chill. Remember the car is still in prototype stage, I wouldn’t be surprised even if GM doesn’t know the price yet. Yes, I get that lots of people want to make it clear if it retails for $40k they won’t buy it, that’s a valid point to make. But for the most of the rest, esp the Toyota fanboys/Honda fanboys/GM haters, could care less what they think.
If it’s just 10k units in the first year, they will sell every Volt they make, even at $40k. Again, this is unless Toyota comes out with something the same or better for cheaper. But still the same comment holds, don’t go overboard changing expectations based on this. Probably the best attitude is to wait and see, at least until we see something a LOT nearer to production spec; remember the car is 2 years off.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:55 am)Hey Lyle, please push for the gm-volt waiting list to get the chance for the first 10,000 VOLTS.
THX IN ADVANCE!
GO GM, GO VOLT!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:57 am)I think the Volt ought to do us in on the first round on the way to your grandparent’s house. The 3rd generation EV’s with their ICE’s and fixed LG Chem partners, the transvestites will never make it to mount everest.
$10,000 later, we have our problem. It just hasn’t been taken far enough, the Volt lovers VS. the time we took mom to the baseball game and baked the apple pie for HER instead. It wasn’t until later that saturday when Bob Lutz was potentially wrapped up on a warm sesame seed bun, don’t take it for granted!
EDIT: everyone was taken for a ride in a prototype volt for sake of giving up on the project or the destination or both rearranged in a different way. They definately pulled 360 degrees around on this one.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (2:51 am)It’s not only price, but also location. The only two states that the Volt will likely sell in is Arizona and California.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (3:47 am)22 Jimmy
Don’t be so quick to take a swipe at Doug Korthof – As far as I can see, GM have not yet built the Volt.
Doug probably went away because he had some good points to make but was lynched by brain-washed Brownshirts who only have ears for the Fuhrer
Now I’ll probably get goose stepped out of the (chat) room again too
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Jun 20th, 2008 (5:32 am)#56
CA, FL and NY initially.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (5:46 am)Hopefully Canada too!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (5:50 am)Oh, And I think Michigan was on the list. It was announced a few months back.
PS – Great tee shirt Lyle!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (5:56 am)#13 Terry K
You’re that “Statik” guy ? NO VOLT for you.
Hey!
Really?
You’d think I’d get a free one just to go away by now.
(That is actually my cunning plan)
==================================================
Hey Statik! Its part of your EVIL plan… and the Volt will only cost (pause and close-up of Statik in his Hefner bath robe in front of his computer) ONE MILLION DOLLARS! HAHAHAHAHAHA
(camera pans to Bob Lutz sitting in corner of Statik’s office wearing pink and white stripped tie)
Uh… Statik… That’s one billion dollars for a Volt… I raised the price while you were sleeping last night… But I’d like to show you the HYRODGEN car we at GM are developing and should have out in another 20 – 30 years…
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Jun 20th, 2008 (5:58 am)Good news bad news!
Why so many long faces over the small 10,000 first year production numbers? First year will only be offered in California, New York and Florida. Is everybody here from these three states??? If not then the often quoted 2.5 year wait is really 3.5 years.
So why do so many care how many are produced and at what cost the first year volt will be. You weren’t getting one of those anyway!!!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (6:00 am)#58 mmcc
CA, FL and NY initially.
Why is the early release only in these states? (Also I’ve read on this blog DC is an early release) Did GM state this (bad pun) or is this what everyone is speculating?
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Jun 20th, 2008 (6:05 am)There still seems to be no battery contract. We may see a commitment to a larger production number if, as, and when GM gets a battery contract that has prices and volumes they like. Until then, they are remaining in small-scale prototype test-fleet mode, and avoiding putting themselves in a box. The positive side is that, while 10K and 60K are small totals compared with conventional auto assembly lines, they are huge numbers compared to anything ever done before with automotive-size batteries, which has been a craft industry.
In the meantime, the huge numbers of posts on this site reflect the interest in the car and also the quality of the site. Good job, Lyle!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (6:14 am)#63 Brad The reasons for CA, FL, NY, DC, as given informally by GM people in earlier topics are (on the one hand) the desire to test the car for a while with only a smaller number of dealers/mechanics having to be trained, especially as the car itself may be evolving, and also (partly hints and partly speculation)
CA — special emissions requirements and bonuses
FL — high public visibility
NY — Lyle’s car
DC — politics
It doesn’t hurt that there are quite a few well heeled potential customers in these states, too.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (6:18 am)#65 RB
Thank you for clearing that up for me. Now I understand.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (6:34 am)10,000 units the first year, although disappointing to some, is a sound idea. Keep warranty issues to a minimum then produce as many as they can sell.
Myself, I will wait for the price to come down or a competitor to have a less expensive product. So I will decide in 2012.
Special note on gas mileage: I usually do 80 MPH to get home from work. Been doing it for years. I decided to slow down and set the cruise control to 59 MPH. Just by doing that, my Hyundai Elantra with 165,000 miles on it went from 31 MPG to 35 MPG. Driving slower really does make a difference. I measure my mileage by the tank. So 411 miles divided by 11.753 gallons of 87 octane at a price of $4.25 a gallon.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (6:51 am)from arch #46
June 19th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
Arch
Well it has been an interesting day. GM and their dealers should be able to make a lot of money on the Volt—-for a year or two. By that time Honda and Toyota will catch up to them. Toyota is the winner here no matter how you call it. They built a CHEAP hybrid. It can save some gas but nothing like what the Volt can do. They are the ones known for a hybrid. Once they make the switch to a REAL hybrid they will kill GM. I will bet that they can bring it in well under $40,000. Gm is still playing the game. I think they may well soon hit the brick wall. There are just to many old men at GM making stupid decisions. JMHO
to Arch,
Your must think Honda and Toyota are some kind of GOD that we in the USA can not compete with them. Grow up!! Your stupidity sticks out like a sore thumb. Maybe you should move to Japan if you think our intellect is so inferior. For now, crawl back in the hole where you came from.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (6:52 am)#61 Brad
“Hey Statik! Its part of your EVIL plan… and the Volt will only cost (pause and close-up of Statik in his Hefner bath robe in front of his computer) ONE MILLION DOLLARS! HAHAHAHAHAHA
(camera pans to Bob Lutz sitting in corner of Statik’s office wearing pink and white stripped tie) Uh… Statik… That’s one billion dollars for a Volt…”
As long as I can pay for it in US dollars, I should be fine.
SNAP!
YES!
Oh yeah, I went THERE!
#63 Omega
I love your post,
“First year will only be offered in California, New York and Florida. Is everybody here from these three states??? If not then the often quoted 2.5 year wait is really 3.5 years.” – this is great posting, you reiterate holding onto your ‘meeting deadlines’, but you don’t say it directly, I can appreciate the depth of thought that went into this
I honestly love the closing, “So why do so many care how many are produced and at what cost the first year volt will be. You weren’t getting one of those anyway!!!”
You can take it two ways, Why do the complainers care? Or why does everyone else in the free world care at all about any news to do with the Volt?
Taken either way, it’s fabulous…I think we are going to grow to be great friends in the next 2.5 – 3.5 years.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (6:54 am)I believe Bob may be talking about a model year versus a calender year. So starting in November 2010 the Volt rolls off the production line as a 2011 model. By June 2011, the assembly line is retooled to manufacture 2012 Volts, and the production rate increases to 60,000 per year (or more).
Therefore, the first 10,000 are actually made in about 8 months, then for the 2012 model year they ramp up to make 60,000.
As previously mentioned by Bob, I believe that most of the first 10,000 copies will end up in California, with the remainder going to New York, Washington, DC, and Florida.
Note that the Corvette production is about 40,000 units per year. It is manufactured on one assembly line working one shift, 5 days per week. It is quite conceivable that GM could increase production beyond 60,000 units in the second year if there are no technical issues and there is demand in the marketplace.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (6:58 am)The REAL problem with such a small number for a high demand car is the dealer markup that is bound to follow. Sure, the list might be $32,000 – but after a $10,000 “Dealer Premium Markup” you’re right back at the $40k+ level.
This happens all the time with cars like this that take a long time to get to market, build up a following and finally get released in small numbers.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:00 am)Arch, #46. That is correct. If GM prices it too high, the competitors will win. I doubt the competitors will be American because I think they are a long way from where they need to be. That would be the fault of the managers who are not very forward thinking.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:05 am)Well, being that I’m late to the party (around 20,000th on the wait list)….and living in PA…..although only about an hour from NY….I guess I’ll just have to wait for one of the 2nd year copies.
I’ve got the $40k … well not in cash so I guess I dont have the $40k but my credit is stellar….I digress….
I’m driving an ‘01 BMW 325i that has 120k miles and I log over 25,000 miles a year….so my fingers are crossed that my Bimmer can hit the 200,000 mile mark without too much pain along the way.
Rashiid, I have slowed down my speeds as well and noticed a difference…it definitely works… I also try to draft behind 18wheelers when possible….I can’t prove that works with numbers but I have to think that it helps….(maybe even more than slowing down?)…I saw it proven on MythBusters
Oh and I wanna see the DESIGN !!!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:07 am)I don’t know about the rest of you, but going around and around on the same seven topics (How many will they make? – How much will it cost? – What will it look like? – Where will they be released? – What will the AER be? – Will it be super car or a no frills electric Vega? – When will it be released?) is starting to get ridiculous……
And because there really is no new information, the posts are starting to become personal attacks.
If this trend continues, what will the gm-volt.com site be like in twenty months or so?
Everyone please take a deep breath and relax!
The Volt will get here when it gets here. Nothing we say or do is going to speed that process up. This is just a way to pass the time, until we can go to a dealership and take a test drive…………
Today is the summer solstice. Go outside and enjoy it!!!!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:12 am)#68 Joe
“Arch: Your must think Honda and Toyota are some kind of GOD that we in the USA can not compete with them. Grow up!! Your stupidity sticks out like a sore thumb. Maybe you should move to Japan if you think our intellect is so inferior. For now, crawl back in the hole where you came from.”
Little harsh? …just saying
#70 BillR
The quote is, “They (GM) are expecting to BUILD and sell 10,000 (Chevy Volts) in 2011 and 60,000 in 2012.”
Agree, GM could ramp faster than 60K once in full production (of course, that date might be debateable), I think I have a post about capacities in this thread earlier.
However, you need to let go of the ‘GM surprises us/GM in production early’ dream. I’m sure that the first Volt is labelled a 2012.
They aren’t going to produce a half dozen copies in 2010 and call them 2011s. They will put out public consumption Volts probably well into 2011, (my guess is a few mid, then more in late 2011), almost assuredly they will all be labelled ‘2012′
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:16 am)All I know and I want GM to know is I want one of the first 10,000.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:19 am)Joe #68. That was really rude and impolite. There really isn’t any need to attack anyone personally. Disagreeing is one thing, attacking is another. IMHO.
.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:19 am)#51 GXT
“Note that the FCX (which is already in very limited release) is an electric vehicle with a li-ion battery.”
***************
Gee, Lyle drove the Fuel Cell Equinox almost a year ago. There are over 100 of them being driven already in Project Driveway. Welcome to the party Honda (even though you are late).
“If the Volt were a GOOD idea Honda could build one in short order by swapping the hydrogen fuel stack for a trivial gas engine.”
****************
Actually, the Volt is a GREAT idea, and somehow, you forgot about the battery pack. For the 40 mile plug-in range, a small battery like the one in the FCX won’t cut it. Honda is no where even close to the Volt. Sorry to burst your bubble.
“Also note that the FCX is actually the complicated “moon shot” that GM will be trying to achieve after they complete the relatively trivial “moon shot” that is the Volt.”
**************
Good luck getting your hydrogen!! If you were informed, you would realize that direct use of electricity is far more efficient than generating hydrogen (such a using power from a nuclear power plant). But that’s another discussion all together.
But you are probably right, the FCX is Honda’s “moon shot”. GM already has the Fuel Cell Equinox, so they have already completed their “moon shot” and are now working on the first mission to Mars!
“I guess we can stop all this spin about GM being so far ahead technologically.”
**************
What’s this “we” crap, you got a turd in your pocket?
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:30 am)Quick question: What is the “Nov 2010″ deadline exactly?. Have we really ever been told? What does that really mean?
This article reads, “Yes, GM is still on track for November 2010.” But what is it really on track for?
Is it cars actually rolling off the line to be sold?
Is it cars in the process of going down the line?
Is it the completion of the production line?
Is it the starting of tooling of the production line?
Depending on your definitiion, you could be ‘on track’ and seeing cars immediately in November, or you could be ‘on track’ and still not seeing any cars until late 2011.
I’m thinking of the new Camaro ‘production’ as a example, here is the quote from Wagoner at the press junket in 2006:
“Production of the Camaro will begin in late 2008, and the much-anticipated car will hit showrooms in early 2009, presumably after a massive debut at the ‘09 Detroit Auto Show.”
http://www.autoblog.com/2006/08/10/breaking-its-really-official-now-gms-wagoner-confirms-camar/
GM execs hope to sell 100K in the first year.
(As FYI: Yes, the car is currently behind schedule, aprox 6 months before production was scheduled to begin GM came out and ‘delayed’ it officially 4 months–if your looking at the Camaro as a likely measuring stick for Volt development.)
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:35 am)The effect of this announcement is to effectively slip the production of the Volt one year, from 2011 to 2012.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:50 am)I think most of us are greenies at heart. Maybe not all. Some of us are anti-establishment or anti-foreign oil.
But I think all of us are here because we want to be ‘on the cutting edge,’ we want to get this ‘insert cause here’ rolling.
We know Toyota is to market in 2010 with the new Li-Ion Plug-In Prius. Specs are debateable, but I think we can all agree on some generalities. EV range 10-20miles, MPG 55-70 and price 25-30K.
Are we (the early adopters/posters on this site) really going to wait until 2012/2013 for a Volt? Are we really going to watch our neighbour drive one around all that time? Are we really going to keep hitting up the pumps at $4-$5 a gallon?
I know GM will sell all it can produce for the first 3-4 years, I’m not debating GM being able to sell them
Here is my question: For you, (the early adopter), are you willing to wait for this car specifically, while others are available? Will you buy both? Will you pass on the Volt to get ‘the first electric drive’ car that comes to market?
I know for myself, I will buy a Plug-In Prius whenever I can put my money down….but I am also a two-car family with the means, so I can buy both. However for some, this may not be possible. Just curious.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (7:54 am)Statik I believe that the Nov date has been printed here as when they hit the show room floors.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:01 am)Van #80
You are right Van, a one year delay.
CarDomain must have it wrong.
If GM is on schedule for showroom sales November 2010. building the first 10,000 in 2011 is inconsistent.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:02 am)#80 Van
“The effect of this announcement is to effectively slip the production of the Volt one year, from 2011 to 2012.”
Exactly, this allows GM to produce a handful of token cars for ‘executives and engineers’ to ‘test for the full production’ in late 2010 or early 2011 (aka ‘how the new Camaro is rolling out’), then built the 10K copies in mid to late 2011.”
Here is the snippet about the Camaro if your interested,
“A few GM higher ups have stated that the General will start making Camaros in late 2008. That’s true, but, a little misleading. Salable, pilot build, Camaros will be the cars rolling down the line in late 2008. This run of cars will be given to engineers, execs and managers.”
http://www.leftlanenews.com/chevrolet-camaro.html
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:11 am)#75 Statik
Here’s what I read:
“I was able to confirm and clarify this statement with Dee Allen who was also in attendance and is GM director of marketing communications.
Dee told me “Bob said the first 12 months of production (beginning in 2010) would be around10k, but in second year 60k would be more like it.”
So it seems to me they are talking about a year of production. I guess it all depends upon when the “production” year begins, but my guess is that they will stay with current practices and begin the model year 2011 Volt production in 2010 (cars available for sale in November 2010), and start the model year 2012 Volt production in the summer of 2011.
But if you have more definative information, I would be glad to see it.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:15 am)Goodness Sakes!! Enough already!! In the next 2-3 years there are going to be so many changes in the world of gasoline alternative vehicles, it is going to make your head spin. Some of them may not even deal with plugging your car into the grid at night. Who knows, you may be loading up a flux-capacitor in your vehicle with banana peels and 1/2 empty cans of lite beer for all we know (ala Back to the Future). I know that I am in the majority here and the rest of America in saying that all I want NOW is a vehicle that will help me avoid filling up at any gasoline station………….period! I want a vehicle to be reasonably priced, practical, and functional. I want it to get me from point A to point B with as minimum of a cost as possible. If it helps the environment great. If it helps the economy and keeps us out of wars, that’s even better. I personally don’t care what GM will produce in 2010, 2011, or even 2020. As soon as a vehicle hits the market that will satisfy my needs, I am buying it. So… all power to the manufacturers who can do that for me in the quickest time possible. You are the ones that are going to get my business.
Just my 2 cents.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:17 am)The Volt is for those of you who actually LIKE cars.
I detest them, but while living in the US, they are a necessary evil.
(before you start wondering, I’m from the US, just have lived abroad a bunch).
I want a Flextreme, because I anticipate that unlike the VOLT, the Flextreme will really be cost-effective transportation, not a driveway trophy.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:21 am)Here’s a link that states GM will make 100 copies of the Volt in 2009 (can’t remember if these were the integration vehicles, or what the actual term was). These will be driven by GM employees (and maybe Lyle).
Sales will begin in Nov. 2010.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aiaLXKMXf.a8
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:28 am)#48 Marcus-
How are you? As much as I loved that show and the ship “Serenity”, I’m afraid that’s not where Firefly originated for me. For the past 14 years, I have been a welder that has worked on everything from battleships to nuclear facilities. When I lived in Baltimore 6 years ago, I worked for the construction company that fixed the hole in the Pentagon after 9/11. I live in Alabama, now and I’ve worker on Mercedes-Benz’s expansion project (you know, all of their SUV’s are built down here.) Well, on many jobs that I’ve been on, I’ve worked the graveyard shift (7pm to 7:30 am). At 2:30 in the morning, welding at 200 feet in the air, the notion was that you looked like a firefly from the ground. So my co-workers would tell me I looked like a firefly-that and they’d throw half burned welding rods on my seat without my knowledge (hence the glowing butt! Ha Ha). They kinda meant it to tease me, but I made something out of it. Now it’s my Xbox Live gamertag, my nickname and my GM-Volt ID. Then I started watching the show “Firefly” and liked it. So it seemed to fit.
I apologize to everyone else. I know this was a bit lengthy explanation of a name, but Marcus asked and I felt compelled to answer him. As for this particular post, I could only hope that Lyle’s list is given consideration. Especially since it is all of you that have made this as well known as it is. If it were not for Lyle, and posters like Nasaman, Statik, ThombDbBomb, Rashiid Amul and so many others, half of anyone would not know what a volt was other than a measure of something electrical. GM better not give this site all of that inside info and not take it to heart. I think there would be a lot of pissed-off people…regardless of the price. Sometimes, it’s the principle of the thing…
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:32 am)Rashiid Amul
Joe #68. That was really rude and impolite. There really isn’t any need to attack anyone personally. Disagreeing is one thing, attacking is another. IMHO.
You don’t think he was attacking GM old workers? Well, I happened to be one of them. If he attacks, one has the right to defend. Also, putting down GM or this country is an attack on me.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:33 am)Once again, Statik is correct. They will dribble out for marketing, then 10k in first full production year. That’s how they (all auto manufacturer’s) usually do it will spanking new model lines.
Meanwhile, may the first 10,000 beware. Here is a cautionary tale. I was (and am still) part of the Jeep Liberty CRD 10,000….the 05,06 diesel option libbys. The stopped that option at 10,000, and now we diesel-heads are pretty much on our own. Certainly no Chystler dealerships became overnight diesel-geniuses…and have very little inclination to right now. And since they split up with Daimler (aka Mercedes..the diesel guys), I really have no hope that any Jeep dealer will EVER know what to do with my engine. Luckily, I have a bit of wrenching ability and a kickin’ on-line community and we solved all the problems that cropped up ON OUR OWN.
But that could very well happen to the Voltittes (Volties? Volters?) rushing in. My advice: don’t be an early adopter unless you like to wrench (er…solder) and have the time and money to be your own warrentee. For me, the Volt will be a great toy and keeping it running will be my hobby. But I wouldn’t recommend any first production year technology to anyone who really is pushing their budget to buy one…or pushing their ability to wrench one. An example of a bad candidate would be your grandma…unless your grandma is rosie the riveter.
In the end, you may just be the only mechanic in your town who knows diddly about your car and how to fix it. That’s my definition of fun, make sure it is also yours.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:34 am)Voltittes? Volters? Volties?
Hmmmmm.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:35 am)#88 BillR
I like you BillR, (well most of the time), lol. I know thats hard to believe.
But for what it’s worth you steadfastly put out your opinion, much like myself. And you go out and dig up whatever sources you can find to back yourself up, much like myself. The internet is a wonderful place, providing both sides of a argument with ammunition.
/sarcasm on
You are still completely wrong, and I am completely right.
/sarcasm off
We almost always totally disagree with each other, which is awesome.
BTW. My favoUrite (note Canadian ‘U’) color is green, and it is the best color ever!
http://groups.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=groups.groupProfile&groupID=103198477&MyToken=982da19a-6133-45ad-9303-07f69beee417
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:39 am)CA, NY and FL?
Sister lives in San Diego, parents live in Baltimore, brother-in-law lives in Florida. Looks like a wire transfer and a cheap flight will happen.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:46 am)#91 Biodieseljeep-
You bring a very serious argument to the table. Like I said earlier, I live I Alabama. I know this is contrary to popular opinion, but I have wrestled with the thought that upon purchasing a Volt, the only dealer that may initially be competent enough to service it will be in Miami, which is nearly 13 hours from me. Couple that with freight costs, that’s gonna be a real pain. Unless there will be a GM training seminar for dealerships to send at lease 2 techs to certify on Volt maintenance. And right now there is so much to iron out with the car that I don’t think training like that will come until at least 6 months after the first 10,000 are sold.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:46 am)EDIT: Nice day today isn’t it?
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:47 am)…or they could send the techs to you…
…just a thought, Mr. Lutz…
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:48 am)#74 Jim,
I agree with you completely. No matter what whining, complaining, calculating, speculating, or name calling goes on in this site, GM will role out the Volt according to their timetable at a price they can afford to sell it for.
I would however like Lyle to answer the question if GM will at least give first right of refusal (and assuming a deposit required) to people on his waiting list.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (8:54 am)about a comment # 96 Statik
Statik is right. And so is the other poster. I understood what he said and forgive me but I must agree. There are executives (who are of a more senior persuasion than I) who have made bad judgement calls in relation to GM’s effective business model. This has been largely to fill shareholder’s pockets. I do not think he meant anything about our octegenarian caste. If anyone took it that way then let me say “I’m sorry” for the fact that something may have been taken out of context. We’re all adults here (I hope) and I think we can be bigger than what we are by accepting the fact that not everyone thinks as we do…but that doesn’t mean they’re wrong, nor does it always mean a personal attack. I think it’s just the writing on the wall, that’s all. I’m quite sure many people here do not agree with me, but I do respect their opinion (might be because they tend to back it up with hard evidence to support their point.) At any rate, it was not a personal attack sir, and I urge you to not treat it as such.
Thank you, Statik for helping to clear that up.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (9:05 am)If they can only do 10,000, than so be it. I think the 60,000 # is a minimum, no doubt they want to sell all they can if they are making a profit. Many of the Volt buyers will be new to GM products.
Mean-while the battle between GM and “big oil” will be more interesting to me. Exxon needs to see the light of day as GM has painfully done. I think ethanol is the answer, not off-shore drilling. The next U.S. President is going to be a weakling, so change will have to come city by city and state by state. Maybe GM should sell the Volt in States that will co-operate with their new business structure. I guess I’m thinking GM still needs to alter it’s business plan. The politcal chaos of Washington is screwing up the economy big time. GM needs to partner with like minded states and countries to achieve new goals . I’m going to go enjoy the summer solitice, as someone just posted.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (9:18 am)#91 BiodieselJeep
I remember the ‘kafuffel’ with diesel and service at Jeep. New engine–limited run–limited experience I think you are right about when the Volt comes out, who can’really’ fix it right away?
I think this also goes to when does the car actaully get to market? Is there a unforeseen delay as clearly GM has to be able to service the car once it is released, and therefore has to train a multitute of mechanics.
With such a fast timetable to get through R&D/Testing and production, even for a normal car… where and when does training up your local techs come in? This may just end up being some kind of logistical question, but it is interesting nonetheless.
Generally a new car comes out, and your local techs have no issues…”yupe, another car…same old engine” This is a much different case entirely.
I run into this problem with my SMART TDI (Eruo-diesel). Even though the car is two years old, if I take it anywhere other than my ‘home shop,’ the mechanics just end up standing around it saying, “wow, I’ve never seen one of these before”
Example: I needed just a oil change, I went to ‘Canadian TIre’ (the largest chain store/mechanic in the country. I said, I want a oil change, they said, “Uh, can you take it somewhere else” The Smart has the engine in the back under the floor mat, and has no sump drain so the only way to get oil out of those things in a service is to use an extractor…and they have no way to stop the ‘flashing wrenches’ that indicate time for a change/service.
(Side note: Mercedes charges $300 every 10,000 miles to do the change and ‘get rid of the wrenches,’ which I had to pay until I finally found ‘a guy’ that could do it for $60).
Would you take your out of warranty car back to the dealer for service? Craziness right? Imagine taking your Volt to your local Chevy dealer…”Yeah, your centrifical wedgie-woo is gone…thats $2,500″
I know when I take my G6 in (under warranty) and he tells me the noise in the front, is actually ‘the alignment…and I need new tires…and my brakes are ‘almost completely’ gone….but they also found a stone in my tire” that means “The noise was a stone, but here is a big list of things that are not covered under warranty that we really want to charge you for” — true story from last week.
Regardless, if you get a Volt, a Plug-In Prius or Mitsu i-Miev, being forced to deal with your local dealership is going to be a nightmare, and it CERTAINLY is a additional cost as compared to a conventional vehicle.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (9:19 am)Let’s see…only 10,000 volts, first year. Ca, Fl, Ny, Dc. Hmm. I live in Fort Lauderdale, (short drive south to Miami, short drive north to West Palm Beach. My wait list number is between 8000-9000. So maybe, just maybe, there is a chance of getting a Volt early. Time will tell.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (9:23 am)#99 Firefly
My post was pretty good wasn’t it, until I took it down. I didn’t think anyone would catch it. I’ll summarize it though because it was referenced.
It basically just said that the original post was a ‘generality about the executive of GM,’ nothing unusual, but the retort was of a personal nature, which was over the top…and that sometimes it is better to just say your sorry and move on. (You get more brownie points if you just take the back seat once in awhile).
Goodness knows I have ‘jumped the shark’ a few times and have taken a argument farther that it needs to go. When that happens I say, “I think I’ve gone too far, sorry, lets all just move on to the next thread”
After writing it, I thought, hrm…maybe I should just stay out of it, let it work itself out and move along myself. So IDK, it is–what it is.
Peace.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (9:26 am)#103 Statik,
No explanation necessary, my friend. I understood and agreed with you.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (9:37 am)Firefly:
“I do not think he meant anything about our octegenarian caste”
I like your wordsmithing here.
+1
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Jun 20th, 2008 (9:39 am)Just 10K in the first 12 months… I have to wonder, how does this play with the limited geographic rollout?
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Jun 20th, 2008 (9:49 am)Response to #81 from Statik…
I like to consider myself a ‘greenie’ but I will not be able to pull myself out of my ‘ultimate driving machine’ (the ICE that it is) until I can get into a car that I want to drive….
It doesnt need drive as nicely as my BMW but it needs to at least come close and it needs to have a sleek design….
I think the pure torque of the electric drive will probably be more than sufficient to make me forget how nice it is to drive a Bimmer.
The Volt concept fit the ‘looks’ for me, but that is gone now…. the Flexstreme is palatable to me but if these things turn into jellybeans (to use your reference from the other day)
….. I’m not sure what I’m gonna do.
As a secondary priority for me I’d love to switch from foreign (German) to domestic ownership.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (9:56 am)dagwood55 #106:
7999 to CA
2000 to FL
1 to NY for Lyle
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Jun 20th, 2008 (9:58 am)Side note: Stock update time!
You know you want it!
$14.07 -.73 cents or 5 percent again…another half billion off the market cap. This surpasses the 30 year low now…and we are into the first half of the last century territory.
Yield over 7% If you know the basics about financial analysis, you recognize this now as ‘official death watch’ territory. The yield is more than double what you make on 5-year US treasuries/munis, which is a monster red flag.
Link to quotes on Treasuries/Munis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:14 am)Statik. #109. Hey, thanks a lot for the stock tip. I’m going to cash in my entire retirement portfolio and buy GM stock. Thanks again.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:22 am)Statik
So can they still make the Volt if they go Chapter 11?
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:23 am)Also, their is a new issue of the day affecting GM and it’s dwindling cash pile: 1.5 billion more.
SUV/truck leases!
As we know GM leases vehicle to it’s customers and makes them only pay for the part of the vehicle that depreciates (+ a small percentage extra that GM makes). This makes a ‘unaffordable’ vehicle, affordiable to more people.
Unfortunately, with the advent of high gas, the market on GM’s most profitable vehicles has completely collapsed…this is also a double edge sword with leases, the used market has collapsed too. Leased vehicles are coming back to GM from 2005 now…and they are under water.
For example, a Tahoe LS AWD in 2005 was $38,000, (old body style). Residual on a lease was 60%, or $23,000. Now the lease is up, the customer hands GM the keys. Oops. the retail value is only $13,000.
GM has these on their books as $23,000. When each one comes in, they lose $10,000.
Lehman expects a writedown of about $1.5 billion this year on this issue (which is probably conservative) and this is a continuing problem going forward.
“Compounding the issue is the fact that about 75 percent of the financed vehicles were light trucks for 2006-2008 FMCC vintages,” Johnson (Lehman analyst) said.
Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/25278619/for/cnbc/
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:24 am)RE: GM stock…..you could say they are leaking oil ???
(Although all the blue chippers are hurtin today)
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:25 am)Joe, #90 says, “You don’t think he was attacking GM old workers? Well, I happened to be one of them. If he attacks, one has the right to defend. Also, putting down GM or this country is an attack on me.”
Well, I just think you are taking it personally when it seems to me that it was directed toward GM management. Now, if you are one of the managers that has helped drag GM down, then the shoe fits and you shouldn’t be angry with the truth. If you are one of the worker bees, then I am sorry that you have to work for a company that has a reputation for making junk cars. This is in no way your fault. Again, it is management. Remember that 66% of the buying public won’t even consider an American car. I work with a bunch of people that would buy the Volt if it wasn’t American. I’m not one of them, however.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:27 am)107 Murray……
You say, “It doesnt need drive as nicely as my BMW but it needs to at least come close and it needs to have a sleek design…. I think the pure torque of the electric drive will probably be more than sufficient to make me forget how nice it is to drive a Bimmer.”
Actually, based in part on a detailed discussion about the Volt’s handling & suspension that I had with Tony Posawatz in NYC, I’ll be surprised & disappointed if the Volt doesn’t handle even BETTER than (say) a 3-series or even an “M-model” BMW. Here’s why……
1) GM & Posawatz are very much aware that BMW is the “gold standard/target” for handling (& drivability in general), and…..
2) The Volt’s lower center of gravity (its heavy battery is centered & close to the ground), so it has a huge advantage
I believe you’ll be amazed at how your Bimmer’s driveability has actually been upstaged by the Volt!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:28 am)Don’t put your whole portfolio into any one thing.
I’m not saying that I haven’t thought of picking up a bargain (which could possibly go through the roof if the Volt takes off), but I never, would never invest anything in a single company’s stock that I wasn’t prepared to lose (not much, in my case).
That’s another one of those “basics.”
–just in case you’re not joking–
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:29 am)#112, Statik, CNBC could be more clear, here. Is this going to affect GM directly, because GM holds the leases, or is this a problem for GMAC, because GMAC holds the leases?
in the latter case the pain is shared around – GM only owns 49% of GMAC. Which is also having other troubles.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:29 am)Statik, #81. I’m a semi-greenie and anti-fossil fuel.
Anti-establishment? As far as our government is concerned, I’m pro establishment, but anti-idiot. Our government is filled with idiots, regardless of party.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:37 am)#111 NZDavid
“Statik. So can they still make the Volt if they go Chapter 11?”
Actually yes. Many traders actually believe that Chapter 11 is inevitable and GM themselves know it. Naturally, it is in GM’s best interest to delay this happening and to put on the face that everything is ok, all the while borrowing and spending as much money as they can on the future, with no real intention of paying it back.
Projects like the Volt could never be initiated under bankruptcy protection. Every move would be scrutinized, unprofitable departments would be sold off or closed, risky future ‘projects’ would be moth-balled.
Only new ‘in production’ and high margin/successfull products would continue, under the banner of “much smaller-but much better”
Number of GM shares outstanding: 566 million
Number of GM shares shorted: 101 million
Percentage 18.6%
Number of Toyota shares outstanding: 1.57 billion
Number of Toyota shares shorted: 1.4 million
Percentage: 0%
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:42 am)Well, that pretty much tears it.
It’ll be 2013 by the time the Volt trickles down to me, replete with mandatory dealer options and markup. There’s no way this clunker I’m currently driving will hold up till then, anyway. Guess I’ll pull the trigger on a Jetta TDI and wait for the second wave of electrics.
I’m a patient man, but damn!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:54 am)#117 Dagwood55
Your right, they could be more clear (Lehman, not CNBC really). It does say financial arms, so it could very well be a full hit to GMAC.
Although I know GMAC handles the financing end of the difference between the residual and the retail price, I’m not sure they assume the residual commitment that is set out my GM itself (would be crazy to let someone else decide your committment…expecially because Cereberus technically owns it). I would think that that portion of the asset would still be attached to GM under ‘receivables’
It’s a good question though, if true it could mitigate the 1.5 billion to 750 million. The article does not also indicate if that is a current account rightdown (for this year’s business) or if it takes into account the next 2-3 years of future lease expiries.
Also the current lease structures are still not reflecting a 30 percent residual value…probably because they just want to get rid of inventory.
From GM’s site:
$35,530 Tahoe
$18,475 residual (FIFTY PERCENT ON A 4 YEAR!)
48 month lease @ $450/month
($21K total payment after interest $17,055 + 4,000INT)
They want to get rid of them, but most customers want a lease…so GM is reducing the price to sell..then also taking the hit when they come back…delaying the loss 4 years out on their books, if you will)
FYI — GMAC cost to finance $17,055, is raised through the open market, which is costing them about 6% atm, or roughly #3,000, so there is a$1,000 profit on the lease agreement…before they have to deal with the residual)
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Jun 20th, 2008 (10:55 am)There are ways left for GM to cut back substantially without collapsing, and still carry forward with the Volt project.
It could cost GM a division, maybe two: but is creating essentially the same thing in different style flavors, like ice cream, really relevent in today’s market? Would there be a loud wailing and gnashing of teeth in the US over the loss of Pontiac? (I heard nary a ripple over the folding of Olds).
GM can’t really lose Buick because of the Chinese market (where they’re regarded as THE status car — go figure), or Saturn (which could be re-named “American Opel”) because of the European market (what would be the point?).
The Avalon, Camry and Corolla are all part of the same Toyota brand, but are aimed at different buyers. Prius (a totally different thing) could be spun off in a future Toyota division; and though one could argue that they’re starting to follow the old GM multi-style-division-model with Scion, in this case the styling tends to be radically different.
The remaining GM divisions may become more focussed in a similar way: I predict that, over the next decade or so, most large pickups will be GMCs as the consumer market for low-mileage vehicles gives way to the business model (in those businesses where they’re still necessary regardless of mileage). Why waste money putting a bow-tie on essentially the same thing (or dolling a truck up for Cadillac) if they’re not selling? Saturn may form the future small-ICE core for GM, and I guess there will always be some buyers for the CTS.
Or, could things get so dire that GM would consider selling the Cadillac name (probably to Daimler)?
What psychological effects such radical changes (such as ditching Pontiac, or selling Cadillac) could have on already teetering market confidence is a different matter.
I wonder if anyone at GM is thinking such thoughts (probably not out loud, at this point)?
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Jun 20th, 2008 (11:05 am)Statik says:
“Only new ‘in production’ and high margin/successfull products would continue, under the banner of “much smaller-but much better””
After reading your #112, about leases, I also think Chapter 11 is unavoidable, so your above statement cheers me up except for the ‘fact’ Version 2 is not in production yet. (gulp).
Still as they have pushed Toyota to produce Li Ion versions now, it’s not all bad.
GM please don’t fail until Version two is in production. PPllleeeassseeeee .
EDIT: Yep as per Jackson, Sell stuff, keep going.
Must go lie on one of Tagamet’s couches.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (11:14 am)Jackson, #116 says, “Don’t put your whole portfolio into any one thing.”
Thanks Jackson. I was joking, but sometimes that doesn’t come across well with the written word. However, your advice is very sound.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (11:14 am)5,000, 10,000, or heck 1,000,000 a year it doesn’t matter at 40,000 a piece i see only selling maybe 20,000 a year at most..people who can afford a 40000 or should i say 666.66 a month for 60 months car payment aren’t going to be interested in a small car the size of a cobalt when clearly they can afford something bigger and better and the gas won’t bother them until 10 a gallon…lol the payment 666 lol well figure in interest so about 700 to 750..now ask your self can you afford something that is going to be more than your rent on apartment…lol…let toyota or honda do it they will do it right…gm got lucky with suvs for a while now it’s time to step aside and get out of the way…
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Jun 20th, 2008 (11:25 am)If you are visiting the web site are you Volting?
If you leave and return aren’t you Re-Volting?
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Jun 20th, 2008 (11:26 am)Yep, times is getting tough. Or, reality bites.
General Motors Corp. has indefinitely put off plans to re-engineer a next generation of full-size pickups and SUVs amid plummeting sales of large trucks, the automaker said Wednesday.
Instead of overhauling big trucks like the Chevrolet Silverado pickup and GMC Yukon SUV in a few years, GM will save money and resources by improving on the current models launched in 2007. Delaying a remodel of the trucks also gives GM time to factor in the effects of new federal fuel economy mandates.
GM could save $250 million to $300 million by putting off that makeover for just one year, said analyst Jim Hall of 2953 Analytics LLP in Birmingham.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080619/AUTO01/806190360/1148/rss25
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Jun 20th, 2008 (11:40 am)The competition attacks. Ouch.
The manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) for the new 2009 Dodge Durango HEMI Hybrid is $45,340, including $800 for destination. The MSRP for the new 2009 Chrysler Aspen HEMI Hybrid is $45,570, including $800 for destination. Additionally, customers are expected to receive an estimated tax credit of $1,800.
By comparison, MSRP for the two-mode Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid is $53,295 for the 4×4 models, and $50,490 for the 2WD model.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/06/chrysler-prices.html
Think I will go to bed now.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (11:47 am)Thanks nasaman #115
… makes perfect sense and I cant wait to test drive one of these things (of course)….
Good to know that BMW is the benchmark, they certainly have the whole ‘driving experience’ thing figured out…I just hope mine can make it well over 200k miles before I can get my hands on a Volt (or a close equivalent)
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:09 pm)51 GXT
Actually, GM’s fuel cell vehicle “moonshot” preceded its Volt “moonshot”. What was your point again?
http://www.fuelcellsworks.com/Supppage6015.html
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:15 pm)If GM was preparing for the Gen VI Cobalt I could see expecting them to crank out 50k or more in the first year but in the case of a new car and an EV to boot, 10k per year is probably very, very wise.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:22 pm)#112 Jackson
I hear what you are saying, and certainly selling off/shuttering the lessor brands might help somewhat in the short-term (although it hurts cash-flow…and thats what GM needs to service ‘mountain-o-debt atm (I no that appears to makes no sense, but it’s true…don’t ask, lol)).
However, when you go through the lists of what to sell/shutter. I’m afraid number one of GM’s list with a bullet is Saturn. Saturn really has found no market, it started out with alot of fanfare, but it has ultimately been a failure. The Saturn ‘brand’ could easily be swallowed by Chevy. The Opel based cars just get a Chevy sticker.
Secondly, while SUV/truck business is in the crappier. The banner of GM for is Cadillac. No way GM sells/shutters this…it would be the last to go.
The bulk of GM’s North America profit now comes from this segment (Cadillac is non-existant pretty much in Europe…Cadillac BLS (by Saab) yeeck.).
Cadillac is a name…a icon. People buy Cadillacs like the Escalade/STS/XLR (even the CTS–it has that ‘image’ too) to say to their neighbours, “My time has come” It didn’t use to be this way for the longest time, but it is now. The premium is built into this car.
The new CTS is a relative beast for GM on the income statement, and it pushed Cadillac to only be off 1% overall in Q1 (whilst GM dropped 19% overall). GM also tacked on a extra $900 to the Escalade and $750 to the STS, while they slash the crap out the SUV/truck lineup.
The DTS, inside the Cadillac lineup however, is very (very) old in the tooth, it is ‘the old Cadillac’ and could go at any moment, it really sticks out like a sore thumb.
I think they only sell about 20K of these. It doesn’t fit at all, but because of it’s age, it is cheap to make and the buyer’s are loyal (reminds me of the old Astro/Safari…just can’t seem to stop pumping them out)….and it’s built alongside the Lucerne, which shows a decent run–70Kish
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:28 pm)If GM wants to play games with the price and volume along with the dealer markup’s then I’ll just keep my SUV and pay the gas bill. When it is worn out in a few years then I’ll see who is in business selling electrics and for how much. Besides, I like my SUV and it is cheaper to keep it than make huge payments on an overpriced electric.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:35 pm)I know Doug Korthoff personally and he’s a great guy! He does more for energy independence in a week than most of us will do in a lifetime.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:39 pm)Statik,
In a way, Saturn failed long ago.
There is a reason why a Saturn was my first GM car (and my second); and while the cars were reliable (if unexciting in terms of style), a big reason had to do with “no haggle pricing.” Ridiculous dealer markups and time-dishonored “horse tradin’” were removed from the equation. The failure is that this didn’t serve as a notice and pilot program for the rest of the GM divisions. They’re reaping the reward for this, based on a lot of replies I see here: “It doesn’t matter what Volt MSRP is if the dealer decides to ream us.”
The innovative production techniques and features have disappeared, and Saturn is now a vehicle (so to speak) for Opel. Is Spring Hill (TN) even open? Maybe just for the Vue.
You are probably right about Cadillac; but Buick these days is functionally the same thing these days, apart from Name appeal; and if they have to keep selling Buicks in China it could, just, become yet another case for the growing list of things controlled in America by what the Chinese do.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:45 pm)Sorry, have Firefox 2 at work, and that editor just won’t play.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:49 pm)#131 TBK
“If GM was preparing for the Gen VI Cobalt I could see expecting them to crank out 50k or more in the first year but in the case of a new car and an EV to boot, 10k per year is probably very, very wise.”
The next gen Cobalt, which is yet unnamed (or its Pontiac/Opel?/Daewoo?) cousins, is on on the Delta platform.(yes, I used the Greek word to describe it GM, get over it). It will be built in Lordstown.
Production is expected to start in early/mid 2010. There will be no ramp up from June 2010, it will be running (is planned to run) at full capacity by then. Until the plant is deemed competant, the Cobalt will be produced inline through 2010, likely through summer of 2010 or until such time as the Delta is a go.
This is the car the GM ACTUALLY needs to make and sell alot of. It will feature the new 1.4 turbo 140 HP engine that gets 40MPG.
The plant is actually increasing in size, capacity for this vehicle is expected to be at 2,100 cars A DAY.
They plan on building north of 200,000 vehicles in calender year 2010, then over 400,000 or higher as need be going forward.
Linkage:
http://www.leftlanenews.com/chevrolet-to-get-a-compact-car-to-slot-in-below-the-cobalt-in-2009.html
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Jun 20th, 2008 (12:58 pm)Thanks for that link, Statik; if this “delta” platform car is done right / costs right, I may have found my “waitin’ for Volt” car.
We can help GM survive before the Volt gets here … if GM can meet us halfway.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:01 pm)#135 Jackson
I have no clue what is going on with Buick…I don’t really understand it at all. (Although I really like the Enclave). I used to lump it in there with the ‘Oldsmobile’ brand. It used to always be on the cusp of termination…not so much anymore.
It may just be there isn’t enough suppliers of ‘granny’ cars, they are all gone. So Buick has backed into a viable entity by just merely existing.
I think it has defaulted itself into a good position on the market. There is porportionally more and more old people right? The first of baby boomers turn 65 this year!
Factoids:
The average age of a Buick owner is 63.
The median age is 67.
10% of Buick owners are between 30 and 50
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:01 pm)10K the 1st yr sounds reasonably cautious, but 60K the 2nd yr seems overly cautious.
after waiting 4 yrs & not being able to buy one because they will be distributed in selected localities and then waiting another year and not being able to buy one because of 30% dealership mark ups resulting from restricted production – well… the Volt will be obsolete before most of us can buy one. hey – tagamet & i might be obsolete even before then!
i wonder if i could find someone who is handy with a screwdriver to mount a bracket by my non-drive wheels, add two electric motors, fill my cargo space with batteries, and install an on-off switch. would something like that actually work or would it blow up? of course it would be ‘manual’, but i remember when you had to turn a crank to roll down your windows – no kidding, there really was a crank!
if i was 30 years younger, i’d be looking forward to a Mr Fusion.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:02 pm)Jackson, #136. I am using Firefox 2.0.0.14 here at work without any trouble.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:06 pm)#138 Jackson
“Thanks for that link, Statik; if this “delta” platform car is done right / costs right, I may have found my “waitin’ for Volt” car. We can help GM survive before the Volt gets here … if GM can meet us halfway.”
Exactly.
If there is no electric car available, this is probably the car I will also get to replace the wife’s G6, which has a little less than 2 years on the lease. (She gets the GM discount…so every car she has owned since she started driving 10 years ago has been GM, this would be the clear favoUrite in my mind)
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:19 pm)10 k Volts the first year… If (heaven help us) GM uses this list… I am in the first 500 and when the site was revamped,, still in the first 800.. I should get one… BUT I live in Central Alberta, Canada.. the real proving grounds for the car..
So.. by mid 2011 I will be shopping for an electric/hybrid built by ??? …
Ray
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:20 pm)As a gesture of good-will (as well as a great and free PR move) I would offer the first few hundred Volts to the folks who had previously leased EV-1s. Since several of those people are celebrities who were nuts about the EV-1, they would probably start advertising the Volt for free.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:21 pm)There’s always the option for GM to release a captive fleet of the production model in** 2009** to people on the list that are deemed emotionally stable enough to handle the exhilaration (sorry Statik, if they waited for you to be happy it’d be a 2020 release).
Be well,
Tag
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:22 pm)THIS IS THE WORST NEWS I HAVE HEARD!
It really means one thing we will be waiting forever for the VOLT.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:32 pm)This has no real spot to post, but it is always on my mind, so this might be as good a place as any.
I think major automakers really do fear the electric car as much as ‘big oil’…actually more than ‘big oil’…even GM. When they sit down at the boardroom and cost EVs out into the future by 5, 10, 15 years they surely see some serious threats to their own well-being.
An electric car is a relatively simple thing to make. The holdup has always been batteries. Right now, ICE are solely in the domain of the big players…with big infrastructure and deep pockets. You have all kinds of models with a huge range in engines (type, size, displacement, more importantly recently, MPG).
What is the difference in costing, even now, on a identical platform electric car that goes 0-60 in 10 seconds and 0-60 in 5 seconds? About $400. Whats the difference in MPG at speed betweent he two? Negligible. Still the battery is the issue, so performance is scale back out of necessity.
With Li-Ion batteries now being reliable/light weight and recently cheaper and cheaper, why should “future me, 15 years from now” buy a $25,000-$30,000 Malibu/Camry/Accord when my neighbours $5,000 Tata build platform has a $700 Briggs & Stratton electric engine and a $5,000 25KwH pack?
His $9,700 EV goes 150 miles on a charge, he doesn’t pay for gas, it should be virtually maintenance free for a decade and his 0-60 time is probably like 6 seconds.
I can see the day cars being built by toy manufacters and guys who make electric scooters.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:33 pm)#8 You are 100% right; The volt is dead just like the EV-1 and all of this wasted space!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:45 pm)Arch or GXT,
When GM talks about fuel cell (aka “fool cell”) vehicles, GM is labeled as a useless pawn of big oil in their master plan to keep the United States hooked on gas guzzlers and foreign oil.
When Honda talks about fuel cell vehicles (like the FCX you mentioned), it is heralded as a brilliant “moon shot” of ingenuity.
Can you explain the difference?
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:46 pm)We have slipped from “comfortably under $30,000 to about $40,000, and slipped from available in the spring of 2011 to available in the spring of 2012. We have slipped from an AER of 40 miles to an AER of 40 miles if driven carefully at slow speed, otherwise expect around 32 miles of all electric range (AER).
Meanwhile, Toyota is planning to have lithium powered PHEV’s on the road in 2011, but the time and number have not been specified. Sure hope Nissan, Honda, or other OEM comes through in 2011. We have been waiting for a long time. Go Volt!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:46 pm)Why do American car manufacturers insist on continuing to be stupid business heads? Better yet, why do they think we are stupider than them???
Do the simple math – even at $5.00/gallon if you get a buy new non-Volt car for $20,000 that does just 35 mpg you save $20,000. (Volt costing $40,000 as recently published.)
So let’s see: $20,000 of $5.00/gallon gas buys you 4,000 gallons of gas. Pour that into the $20K non-Volt car that does 35 mpg and it will take you 140,000 miles!
I ask you, when did you or anyone you ever knew keep a car for 140,000 miles???
Who in their right mind would buy a Volt?
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:50 pm)Hey Tag:
I have been pretty good lately, and I bought a house in FL, so can I still be on the 1st 10K list?????
My Crossfire serial # is 2476, so I have experience in being an early adopter!!
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Jun 20th, 2008 (1:56 pm)Bingo, 151, bingo.
You can also be sure that the plug-in Prius will be sold for 30k or less.
This Volt may be a pipe dream…
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Jun 20th, 2008 (2:07 pm)Statik,
(It’s fun arguing with you, by the way)
Internal Combustion Engines will become less relevent with time, until they disappear (kind of like CRT television sets … when was the last time you saw one of those in a store?). ICE has been the province of the deep-pocketed. However, there are other things which could rise to take their place as the sole domain of the giant car-making corporation:
1) After powertrain and energy, comes weight reduction. I don’t see Tata or Mattel making car bodies in high volume from carbon fiber, for instance.
2) The last range extender will be one featuring continuous combustion, either a small turbine or a nutating engine. This will keep at least one form of the ICE in production for decades; and the volume rules (if not the range of sizes) will continue to be relevent. (No, I don’t believe Hydrogen need be taken seriously, for at least half a century).
3) First there was lead. Then there was nickel cadmium. Current hybrids use Nickel Metal Hydride. Ever wonder what’s next after Lithium Ion on the hit parade? Google sulfur aluminum battery. They’re still laboratory curiousities now, but have a higher potential energy density. By the time these get to where Lithium Ion is today, automakers will be looking back to these times for guidance, hopefully as an incentive for bringing this out. I don’t see an electric scooter guy funding that one.
Finally, I really think overall vehicle integration will continue to be a high value commodity, pending the success or failure of the current big automakes in handling this transition.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (2:16 pm)Statik:
yikes…Saturn is by no means failed. Talk to any Saturn dealer and they can’t keep them on the lots. Buick, GMC, and Pontiac (likely in that order) will be the first jettisoned. Secondly, nowhere in your projections or issues have you discussed GM’s sale of their medium and heavy duty production facilities to ITEC.
and, yes, the paper on the leases is held by GMAC. The lease issue does not affect GM directly.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (2:28 pm)Here’s a cut/paste of something I read a month or two ago about future lithium ion battery chemistries that might be on the way in the next 5-10 years. UC-Davis is one of the major universities involved with plug-in hybrid technologies.
“A report from the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis provides an overview of the current state of several battery chemistries—including NiMH and Li-ion—and their abilities to meet the goals and subsequent requirements for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”
http://bioage.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/05/18/ucditsphev_2.png
I wonder if GM is keeping up with the latest and greatest battery technologies that are coming down the pike and making investments in them if they like them. This manganese-titanium battery chemistry looks pretty good.
I hope that scientist Dr. Cui at Stanford and UC-Davis and the rest of the researchers are putting the most promising battery technologies on the fast track. We need them badly. This oil situation could get ugly in the next few years. It could make the economy flatline for awhile. We need to go into “Manhattan Project mode” and work on battery technologies like there really IS a big war like WW II going on.
Actually, we ARE in a war … a “war on oil and fossil fuels”. They could take away a LOT of our financial freedom if we don’t take some dead serious ACTION about it … RIGHT NOW. Us footsoldiers in the “Volt Nation” army are ready, willing and able to help by buying Volts when they come out and spreading the word about them. Bob Lutz is our 4 star general. He was in the Marines you know. A pilot I think.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (3:05 pm)Omegaman,
very good point about the numbers, price and distribution areas. They could certainly produce a lot more, but GM needs to get some experience with the Eflex before they produce more in a big way. The batteries in particular will be a big unknown.
Nasaman,
It’s his lucky tie and GM needs all the luck they can get, cheers
Rashiid Amul,
My yesterday comment yesterday wasn’t to slag people who can’t come up with $40k for the Volt, it was more an irritable comment regarding the name calling and negative attitudes towards Bob Lutz and GM whom I particularly admire for taking this big chance.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (3:39 pm)Jim I,
Even working two couches, I now have a very long waiting list. Would you care to take a number?(g)
Be well,
Tag
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Jun 20th, 2008 (3:44 pm)This just in:
GM to sell Hummer, Maybe Ax GMC & Pontiac; will keep Saturn:
http://www.leftlanenews.com/gm-preparing-hummer-for-sale-considering-similar-fate-for-gmc-or-pontiac.html
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Jun 20th, 2008 (3:51 pm)De-Lurk.
Designing cars is hard. Very hard. GM has a lot of experience doing it. Some of their cars have been very good and some have been very bad. We’ll have to see how the Volt turns out.
About the 10,000 first year production. Suppose you start producing Volts and discover that there is a flaw in the battery pack. 1 in 500 fails completely after about 5,000 miles or so. This failure never occured in testing. That leaves about 20 drivers stranded on the side of the road. This is statistically significant, however, and GM decides to recall all of the batteries. This is expensive to GM both in money and PR.
Now suppose that they had decided to do an initial run of 100,000 cars and the same failure happens. This multiplies the damage by 10. 200 people get stranded on the side of the road and you have to recall 100,000 $10,000 batteries. Yikes! With 200 failures, the PR impact will be much greater. “Drive a Volt. Get the best. Drive a mile. Walk the rest”
I may be looking for a new car four years from now and the Volt may be on my list. I don’t want GM to skip any steps in designing it, however. Lopping a couple of years off of the development schedule, as they are already doing, is scary enough.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (4:01 pm)Hmmm. Can’t find a thing for Sulphur Aluminum battery research (I did the last time I tried). There are several other new battery chemistries being investigated though (some including aluminum and lithium), so if you adjust what I said above for “whatever the next thing is,” it still makes sense. I think it’s a mistake to think that Li-ion is the end-all, be-all, even though a whole lot is left to do with Li-ion before “the next thing,” whatever that turns out to be.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (4:13 pm)Arnie, #151 says, “I ask you, when did you or anyone you ever knew keep a car for 140,000 miles???”
Arnie,
My Honda Civic had 142,000 miles on it when I got rid of it.
My Nissan Sentra had 167,000 miles on it when I got rid of it.
My Hyundai Elantra currently has 166,000 miles on it and will easily make it to 200,000 miles and beyond.
Only my complete piece of S**T Pontiac Sunbird and Subaru Outback did not make it as far.
But your right, it does not make financial sense to buy the Volt at these current gas prices with the Volt costing $40K or more. However, it does make environmental sense and National security sense. At the current cost of gas, one can not realistically use “saving money on gas” as a reason to buy it because the cost of the Volt outweighs the cost of gas. At least, that is how I see it.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (4:25 pm)#159 Jackson
Wow, thats topical, lol. Makes sense to ax GMC…I didn’t add that into my list because it can’t really be ’sold’ just cut out completly, but it makes sense.
The article actually contains no new information and is just the authors opinion.
He basically re-iterates the Hummer is on the outs…says a ‘internal decision’ has been made with no source. I have no reason to think Hummer is not out the door…once they said it was up for “strategic review” to be sold or cut at the annual meeting, (which is a big deal), you have to figure that nail had already been driven into the casket.
He mentions Pontiac to be in the mix to potentially be axed. Well that might make sense to someone at first blush. It just can’t be done. Not just for their brand lineup, which has some winners, G6, G8/Solstice, these could potentially be ported to another line…but the larger problem is the entire dealer network and GM’s infrastructure.
Pontiac has some of the oldest and most entrenched dealers, generally located a stone’s throw from it’s cousin Chev dealerships. It would practically bankrupt them to even attempt this move.
#155 Morgan
” nowhere in your projections or issues have you discussed GM’s sale of their medium and heavy duty production facilities to ITEC”
Oh man! In interest of board sanity and having people not fall unconscious at their computer terminals, we shouldn’t even think about discussing it, lol.
I have just done some digging around myself, and see that you are right. The lease company does indeed (at least in GMAC’s case) takes the hit on the mismanagement of residuals…which is interesting.
So GM is only on tab for 49%. Interesting…I learned something new today. So Gm technically only has to write down 750 million this year…and take whatever equity loss the damage does to GMAC as a whole.
Nice, concise, informed post Morgan. Appreciate the heads up.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (4:29 pm)to Arch,
“Your must think Honda and Toyota are some kind of GOD that we in the USA can not compete with them. Grow up!! Your stupidity sticks out like a sore thumb. Maybe you should move to Japan if you think our intellect is so inferior. For now, crawl back in the hole where you came from.”
Joe #68
To be honest I do not know what to say back to you. I am sorry if I insulted you in some way.
Take Care
Arch
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Jun 20th, 2008 (4:33 pm)Arch,
Not to worry. It happens (g).
Tag
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Jun 20th, 2008 (4:36 pm)Statik at #137
I have no doubt about their ability to build the volumes, but comment was more to the point that if they were just cranking out another ICE car building a billion units in the first model year run would be fine. But for something as different as the Volt, 10k units would be smart and limit their risk. Then they can go hog wild.
For all of my sarcasm (“Gen VI Cobalt”) I am pulling for GM big on this one. Not because I am waving the American flag but because GM has the engineering talent to do amazing cars. However, they need to start doing it more often. The Volt is a huge leap though so I am going to cut them some slack if they can’t get them to all of us in the first year.
Of course being in California gives me a slight edge up until the dealers sell them all on eBay to the east coast for a $10k mark up…….
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Jun 20th, 2008 (4:38 pm)#151 Arnie
I’m not arguing the point that math on a Volt makes sense. I believe the math does not work…you buy a Volt for the statement it makes…and the ‘feel goodiness’…and to look down at other people. Can’t put a price tag on that.
But I have a 1996 Honda Civic I use for my business, 346,000 on it.
Actually, I just took the plates off this week…but it’s still behind the shop. Replaced it with a new Hyundai Accent on Wednesday, cost me $9,995+ $2,500 for freight, ac, etc. Let’s see someone make the ‘mileage math’ work on that, hehe.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (4:44 pm)Arnie at 151,
If I don’t get 250k out of my cars, I got screwed.
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Jun 20th, 2008 (4:47 pm)#149 Paul
I do not know how I got put into this line. I am not a big fan of fuel cells. Maybe in 15 to 20 years but NOT near term. The fuel cell in the Honda is said to cost over $80,000. Thats twice the cost of the Volt and I dont even like that price. The next few years should be fun. Four dollar gas has finally broken the gates open for all sorts of new technology. We will live in interesting times.
Take Care
Arch
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Jun 20th, 2008 (4:57 pm)Arnie, #151 says, “I ask you, when did you or anyone you ever knew keep a car for 140,000 miles???”
Well lets see My Datsun pick up has 150,000 miles on it. I sold my Dodge van when it had 182,000 miles on it. Heck my GMC Motorhome has 169,000 miles on it and the Suzuki Sidekick I pull behind it has 135,000 miles on it.
Take Care
Arch
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Jun 20th, 2008 (6:13 pm)The discovery that Volt is long-term project, not a vehicle for direct competition