Jun 18
Lutz: $40,000 is Breakeven Price for the Chevy Volt and First Generation Will Not Make Money For GM
A new interview with Bob Lutz taking place yesterday has been published in the Seattle Times. The article outlines GMs plans for the Chevy Volt as well as electric cars in general and contains some interesting comments from GMs vice-chairman and product czar.
Lutz indicated his enthusiasm for electric cars saying “we believe profoundly in the electrification of the automobile,” and he voted for his favorite source of energy to charge those cars saying, “the only real option is nuclear energy.”
He took his customary jab at the Japanese automakers vowing “for the first time, our well-thought-of Asian competitors will be left in the dust.”
Finally he let the cat out of the bag. We have been wondering and speculating about what the Volt might cost. Although GM hasn’t made the expected MRSP public Lutz seemed to acknowledge what GM’s breakeven price for it will be.
Although he is not directly quoted, the source article contains the following quote:
“Lutz said the first-generation Volt will retail for about $40,000 and generate no profit for GM. The company hopes to make money as it rolls out later versions of the vehicle and other plug-in models.”
Source (Seattle Times)
This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 18th, 2008 at 5:40 pm and is filed under Financial. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Jun 18th, 2008 (5:44 pm)$40,000? That price officially puts it above my range.
I was so hoping that I could afford this vehicle as other electric car makers will only LEASE their cars.
Guess I have to use more gas until an electric car comes down to under $30,000 that i can purchase and that can go decent speeds.
Jun 18th, 2008 (5:54 pm)$40,000? That puts it out of my range too.
I will be looking for other electric cars that I CAN afford, while waiting for the price of the Volt to come down. Maybe 2nd or 3rd year???
If it doesn’t come down… then it’s the ELECTRIC Smartcar for me.
Jun 18th, 2008 (5:54 pm)Yes, I will be waiting also.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:00 pm)That is a little on the high side. I was hoping for under 35k but we still have 2 1/2 years. Lots of time, things can change.
PS – Lyle, is there a delay on tee shirt shipments? It’s been about 10 days… seems like I got the bumper sticker in 3 or 4 days. Thx, Mike
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:01 pm)If they retail it at $40,000, the Volt is going to switch from a ‘game changer’ to ‘another EV-1 disaster’
Is GM intentionally overpricing the Volt so that demand will be low, in order to say “Oh, gosh, the Volt didn’t take off, I guess we’ll have to trash all of the research..again.” just like they did with the EV-1? Deflate the demand by making the car not as appealing?
It seems fishy how history is seeming to repeat itself.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:05 pm)It’s not retailing at $40k. Mid $30k will be it.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:07 pm)And BTW, didn’t GM state previously that they would lose money on Volt 1.0? If they price them at “break-even” then they aren’t losing any money are they?
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:11 pm)Hopefully the Government kicks in a rebate. They should support this.
Maybe the 20 mile version is 35K?
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:13 pm)The price is bad news for GM. A vet starts around $48000. It will sell but not by the million and that is what is needed to make GM the leader. Too bad…..
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:14 pm)40K$ is fine by me… As I said before, if you want a cheap 50 mpg car, get a civic or a Fit.
For those comparing to EV1…. news flash, EV1 was NOT for sales if they did it would have been in the 80K$, more 100K$ in today’s dollars.
I prefer to pay 40K and get quality, then slashing the price and get some gold old cheapo GM product they usualy to do.
BTW, for the US market, get yourself a new president friendly to this technology instead of one who would do anything to get more oil. May be you will get a tax break instead of sending troops to the middle east.
And I would also buy a Provoq for 60K to 70K if you ask me…
This is a game changer…
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:19 pm)Guess I can still hope for a BIG tax credit…. like $5K minimum
Now… SHOW US WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE!!!!!
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:22 pm)Everyone knows that tax credits will artificially inflate the price. Samething happened with VOLT. It looks like GM is trying for 10000$
Tax rebate for plugin cars that can go 40 miles. If there were no tax rebates, Volts price would have been 30000$ as originally planned.
So dont worry guys.. You will still be able to buy VOLT for 30000$.
Just be patient till the gov annonces the tax credit.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:22 pm)It seems clear that GM is deciding that there will be enough early-adopter enthusiasm (or sufficiently high tax credits) that they can pay off some of their R&D with the first version, or at least not sell at a loss, as they originally planned (and as did Toyota).
They don’t want to leave any money on the table – they think that it’s better to price higher, and have the cars sell at a reasonable pace, rather than have dealers charging a premium, and people flipping the cars for profit.
It’s like a popular rock-band charging more for the tickets, to discourage scalpers.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:24 pm)#4 mmcc:
As you say, 2 1/2 years until rollout. More like 3 before any of the likes of us get our hands on one. Anything can happen in 3 years. Or nothing. I continue to try not to get too worked up about this stuff.
#2 Ryan Plut:
What electric Smart car? Tell me more. 3 years is a long time at $4.50/gal and rising. Even I can run out of patience with GM.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:25 pm)The early iPhone adopters got burned, and so will those with the Volt, unless they have money to burn. I simply won’t be buying the Volt for the price of 2 Priuses plus the inevitable ridiculous dealer markups. Good luck to the early adopters who will pave (and pay) the way for us.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:27 pm)#10 frankyB:
Amen on the President.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:29 pm)I’m afraid it is out of reach for me too unless there is some sort of tax break
from the Gov. which is problematical. With Obama a chance, with
McCain unlikely unless he changes his mind about oil.. There are still more
than two years to go, so they may yet arrive at an MSRP that’s affordable. I Hope.
They’ll sell the 10,000 but it won’t make it to the masses which is where it
needs to be.
Most unfortunate. Sorta lets the air out of the balloon.
Speedy #6
Unless I lost my ability to read, Lutz said retail for about $40K. Am I
reading wrong?
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:30 pm)($30K – $40K – $50K – $40K….)
$30K should be next if their marketing department has conquered elementary school math.
we are still 2½ yrs out.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:34 pm)akojim..
You are absolutely right.. See my post at 12.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:36 pm)I think Lutz will keep floating higher numbers until people stop biting. They are fishing for what the market will bear.
At $40K, I won’t be buying a Volt, but I’ll still be posting on this site in the hopes that it comes down to $25K after the volume has ramped. I can wait a year or two.
Hopefully GM will come to their senses and price the car to sell higher volume.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:41 pm)I don’t believe much of anything with regards to pricing from this point forward, until the actual MSRP is published. GM has already given out a great deal of information to the public, but I believe they will not reveal the actual pricing until the launch date, and may even try to confuse us in the next 24 months for competitive reasons.
I think it is clear that the technology of the Volt works. The big question was always the battery pack’s ability, and there seems to be a concensus that the batteries will indeed meet the GM specifications. Therefore, technically, the Volt appears to be a success.
Now the question becomes – will it be a commercial success? It seems that the marketplace is reluctant to adopt the Tahoe/Yukon 2-mode hybrids, and this seems to be driven by the purchase price. A similar situation may await the Volt, as the high initial investment my sway buyers to other technologies and alternatives.
I know Ed Peper of Chevrolet mentioned at the VoltNation meeting that the Volt brought some value to the consumer (more than a Cobalt, for instance), however, GM will have to weigh this value very carefully or they may price themselves out of the marketplace.
In some ways it is a Catch 22 situation for GM. To get the higher sales numbers, they must have a lower price, yet to get a lower price, they must have high volume production, and thus need the higher sales numbers.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:42 pm)I would love to have a Volt but Toyota will have a more fuel efficient Prius around that time too. If I could get 80 to a 100mpg out of a future Prius. Then I could wait for a future EREV.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:43 pm)There are PLENTY of semi-rich greens who will buy the first volts at expensive break-even prices. To think you could make a new car battery priced affordably for the masses right out of the gate is ridiculous from every point of view. Look how long it took computers to be affordable in homes.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:52 pm)Good lord guys….everyone gets to whining as soon as a price is mentioned. Geeeze. He says AROUND $40. That doesn’t mean $40!!!. It could be $37, 38, 39, 41, 42……why does everyone get their tits tied up in an uproar when this won’t be announced officially for months. Get off the whine wagon and sit it out and wait. Or buy a prissy and see your hard earned US dollars support foreign investments and governments when we’re slipping into recession and feeling massive layoffs in many sectors of our economy. Enough already.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:55 pm)#23 wow I’v couldn’t have said it better myself.
Jun 18th, 2008 (6:59 pm)For $40k, I want a caddy.
I predict it will be $38k with a $5k gov tax credit available.
We should start a pool.
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:00 pm)A few decades back I can remember some friends that were able to order their new car from GM, watch it being built, and drive it away from the factory. I believe those were factory direct sales? Anyone heard of this done in the past? If permitted again, it would stop the local dealer scalping on the Volt.
If the Volt will cost $40,000.00 then let the quotes come forth from the competition. Mitsubishi drop the lease plans and let us hear your price for the i-miev. It’s said to travel 80 miles on a charge (city cycle?), so if I can get 30-40 mile range with mixed highway/city, the i-MiEV will work fine for me. It’s been rumored it might sell for $25,000.
I will buy an electric, who wants to sell one we can afford?
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:04 pm)Looks like many people will have to wait for the cheaper gen II cars.
Still, $40k for this new technology isn’t all that bad; just unaffordable for most people.
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:10 pm)It is the Volt (or smaller sibling) or Transit. If I choose transit then GM looses a customer. Can GM come out with an affordable alternative to transit in time for me?
I am working to base my business on transit. I am an associate broker with Prudential Manor Homes, REALTORS. I work in the upstate communities of Albany, Schenectady and Troy, NY. Anyone interested in joining me can google my name and find me.
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:12 pm)start writing your senators and congressman, we’re going to need a hefty tax credit to justify the price.
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:14 pm)#24 Kevin R says: “Geeeze. He says AROUND $40. That doesn’t mean $40!!!. It could be $37, 38, 39, 41, 42……why does everyone get their tits tied up in an uproar when this won’t be announced officially for months”
I get my “tits tied up in an uproar” because GM said this was a car for the masses. That’s why they used the Chevy brand. At $40K, they haven’t lived up to this promise.
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:14 pm)Somehow I find $40k a reasonable price, not that I can afford it anymore than you folk, but a quality electric vehicle for $40k seems good value, R&D costs money.
If it comes down over time, even better. My Dodge Dakota cost me $30k about 7 years ago so $40k for an PHEV is okay with me. If your financing a Volt, there’s not much difference between $30k and $40k anyways.
Judging by the fuel dollars saved it will more than make up the difference. You have to realize that after insurance and licensing your driving the car free. With 20 mile commutes the gas savings will be considerable as will the savings in maintenance.
Maybe GM will help will rebates and low financing charges so don’t get down so quickly. But if you hang onto to a gas guzzler you’ll find it worthless in a very short time.
Just think about it again.
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:16 pm)Bob’s quote says NOTHING about what GM is going to retail the Volt for and NOTHING about any tax incentives. We STILL have no idea what these cars will be net to the consumer.
What’s the question?
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:18 pm)Actually, I have this thought that haunts me… The rising cost of energy hasn’t yet pushed through the cost structure of the rest of the stuff we buy. There’s recently been price jumps of 20% or more (such as Dow products and even my Dryer’s ice cream went up over 17% because they reduced the carton size from 1.75 qts to 1.5 for the same price) and the system is possibly poised for a truly massive inflationary “step” function. By 2010, $40k may be the new $30k.
Already, our cash machines are giving us $50′s (annoying $50′s!) and I remember when they started giving us (what at the time were annoying) $20′s instead of $5′s or $10′s. Huge inflation is a scary thought, but it may be coming to pass…
Hmmm, my previous number of $38k is (rounded up) 25% more than 30k. Maybe I didn’t just pick the number out of thin air.
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:26 pm)$40K is break even? Whew! That’s tough. Remember, $24K for a NEW Prius and $10K for a Hymotion plug-in supplemental battery pack (installed!) and that’s $34K for a new, plug-in Prius.
I think GM will need to sharpen their spreadsheets and think about taking a loss on the first year Volts to build market share. Toyota did that for the Prius and it paid off for them.
NOW, how can a fully automated production process (to make each battery cell) possibly yield a battery pack that we are guessing at is $5K – $20K per pack????????????????????????????????????
Geez, an ICE engine is a nightmare of high parts count/high precision parts. How can GM build ICE engines so cheaply yet a battery pack be so expensive? I can buy a new Corvette LS2 crate engine for $6350. That’s retail over the Internet. I don’t think Chevy sells 100,000 Corvettes a year. Do they?
Are we stuck in Tesla-land? (Tesla’s pack has 6871 cells. At $1/cell that is, $6871 JUST for the cells. Add housing, cooling system and electronics to that cost.)
Conspiracy theories anyone?
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:30 pm)An article in the EERE newsletter this week about funds for PHEV development stated:
DOE announced last week that General Motors Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and the General Electric Company (in a team with Chrysler LLC) will receive up to $30 million in funding over the next 3 years, subject to congressional appropriations.
It goes on to state what the qualificaions are for the funding:
Each awardee must develop and demonstrate at least 80 PHEVs over the next three years, starting with 10 vehicles the first year, 20 vehicles the second year, and culminating in 50 vehicles in the third year.
If this is the case, I don’t see how GM can’t stick with their original 30k sticker price, which would also keep the car very popular and in high demand. If they get a third of the money, or $10 million, they could easily knock $5k off the first two thousand produced, and hopefully economies of scale would kick in shortly thereafter (not even factoring possible tax credits for PHEV purchases).
Toyota didn’t try to sock it to the first Prius owners, the individual dealers did. GM shouldn’t try to sock it to them either. I know I sound like a broken record here, but a short term higher initial price will deter potential customers long term.
The article is located at:
http://www.eere.energy.gov/news/enn.cfm#id_11816
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:32 pm)DaveP #34
If you cut out the Dryers you’ll be able to afford a Volt and be healthier as well. $40k could be a win-win for you, heh heh. I remember paying $10,000 for a Celebrity in 1984. You could be right on about inflation.
May the force be with you.
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:46 pm)I’m going to keep this short and sweet, because everyone already knows what I would normally say here.
“around 40K/will not make money”
Pwnsauce.
Jun 18th, 2008 (7:55 pm)GM is not in the business to sell vehicles at a loss.
The bean counters know they can sell 60,000+ units per year (see Tax Credit) at $40k to the Greenies and Anti-Oil Hawks.
Looks like it’s Plan B for me with Lyle’s “Volt T-shirt” being the consolation prize… I’ll wear it with pride :>)
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:02 pm)There’s no way that price for that car will every save anyone a dime. The foreign oil argument is compelling, but not determinative to people like me pissed off at gas prices.
Toyota hybrid, here I come.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:05 pm)So a toyota hybrid with litum ion batteries will cast?
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:05 pm)I’m not surprised by the cost per vehicle. This is brand new technology, fresh from the minds of the geniuses at GM that are developed it.
It isn’t even all finished yet.
This is new technology.
What we need now is forward-thinking leadership from government. We need some sizable tax incentives that will launch this technology out of the gate.
Every dollar spent moving this technology forward will be returned to us and future generations tenfold, if only we will have the forsight to do so.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:05 pm)Cost?
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:11 pm)43, who cares? The new Prius will get close to 90mpg, according to reports. Even if I spent 5,000 a year on gas, it would take a very long time to make the Volt a money-saving venture. It’s just not worth the money.
Not when the Prius will get nasty, nasty mileage, and come in at less than 25k.
GM is blowing this one.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:12 pm)“Conspiracy theories anyone?”
No thanks.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:19 pm)______________________________________________
The Lutz quote “we believe profoundly in the electrification of the automobile” is a significant signal that GM is indeed going for the Moon Shot. Lutz is doing a great job building momentum towards converting the entire GM portfolio to PHEV.
That quote made my day. Lutz will make it happen!
______________________________________________
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:22 pm)Volt Price $ 35k. GM will not blow this.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:23 pm)#39 says, “GM is not in the business to sell vehicles at a loss.”
Ya, I also think they are not in the business to sell vehicles, Period.
Sorry guys, $40K is a niche market, nothing more. This is crap.
I may be different than many of you, where I can afford this but I won’t. I will buy a Prius first. At least Toyota has priced the Prius for the masses. Here we are on GM’s home turf, and here they go shafting us with the price. I swear every time I turn around, I see a Prius. It may be unattractive, but they are everywhere now. Why? They are priced right. They are a Toyota. They get great MPG. There are lots of them.
What is GM doing? Selling a few and those few are over priced for the masses. They just don’t get it do they. If they want to beat Japan, they have to really try doing it. But instead, they are making a stupid mistake. What a shame.
But you guys above are right. 2.5 years left. Anything can happen during that time. Let’s hope the price drops significantly.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:24 pm)I could afford it. I paid almost $30000.00 for my new Odyssey in 2004. I could swing 40000.00 – barely.
But – with +100k miles on my minivan, I need a new car by fall 2009. It the Volt isn’t for sale, I’ll probably go with the Honda Civic Hybrid. Yeah, the Prius uses less gas, but the Honda drives better – it’s more fun. Another lost GM sale.
But the Volt will be ready, some day, some sunny day – after GM lost billions in sales to Honda and Toyota. Bob’s in no hurry. The Volt is ready when Bob says it’s ready. And Bob’s good with losing billions in sales – really. He might move the release date up another year or two, just to evaluate paint / interior color combinations and cup holder placement.
Of course I’m exaggerating, just to make a point. Hurry them up, Bob. I want to buy a Volt. I can afford to buy a Volt, but I CAN’T wait forever to buy a Volt. Use triple shifts, seven days a week. This project should never be idle, it should never sleep. We need the Volt, and fast. Toyota’s right behind you, Bob. RUN !
( No GM executives were forced to run in the making of this politically correct, sensitive, caring, compassionate, and completely undivisive posting).
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:32 pm)The 2009/2010 Prius actually looks pretty cool, sportier, particularly in black.
And again – 90mpg. ~22,000. It’s no contest, it really isn’t.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:33 pm)Let see how much will a toyota prius hybrid be with litium ion batteries. I’ll bet $40-50k+. Anyone please?!
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:34 pm)I agree with Drake #42, I would not drive a Prius if a high quality Volt was available, . At the rate technology is changing the Prius is already an old technology at a dead end. I wouldn’t by a 2000 computer either even though it would be dirt cheap. The performance of an EV over a Prius will be staggering, that’s why people wanted to keep the EV1.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:37 pm)I was just browsing around Car and Driver’s Web site and came across an article about the new Corvette. The article is not really that relevant to the Volt–other than the fact that the Corvette is also a GM car that costs a lot of money–but it does have a great first paragraph:
“We’re loving this new schtick from General Motors where they tease us with hot, new, fast sports cars and insane projected figures of their prowess—and then deliver real numbers that either live up to the hype or smack us silly by being even better than we were led to believe.”
I hope that’s also true of the Volt–especially its MPC, MPG and price. Anyway, here’s the link to the article:
2009 Chevrolet Corvette ZR1: Priced at $105,000
BTW, 638 hp and 604 lb-ft of torque is ridiculous!
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:37 pm)GM can sell a car for $18,000, and so if the break even is $40,000 the battery must cost $22,000, or about $1300 per KWH. So if they cut the battery down to 12 KWH, the break even would be $35,000 and a whole lot more folks could buy it.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:38 pm)EV for 40k doesn’t cut it.
Even if the new Prius gets only 60mpg, it still, in the long run, is cheaper than a 1st generation Volt, and the thing isn’t going to drop 10k in one year.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:39 pm)________________________________________________
With regards to the $40K float price…..sign me up.
GM making a finale pricing decisssion will get down to how many EVs does GM want to sell and how much do they want to disrupt Toyota’s momentum.
________________________________________________
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:41 pm)I bet the Volt ends up going for around $35,000. Who knows though. GM has got to know that the Volt will sell briskly if they can it under $30,000. GM would sell out their inventories if they got it down to current Prius price levels … $25,000 or so. I would love to hear about some big developments that will bring down the price of those batteries between now and then. Let’s also hope that the government has some excellent incentives to REALLY kick start sales of this first “series hybrid” (E-REV) on the market that gets up to 150 mpg. The first real “mainstream electric drivetrain car”.
I bet a lot of the pricing will be determined by what Toyota and the other car companies have available in late 2010. It’s still too early to talk about what the price will end up being. Sure would be nice to get a Volt for not much more than the best hybrid that Toyota has available.
I think if GM clearly shows everyone that the Volt is an excellent VALUE for the money, it’ll still sell pretty darned good even if it’s priced higher than whatever Toyota has to offer … especially if gas prices are ridiculous in late 2010. They need to really impress the automotive press guys too. The Volt needs to get good reviews and ratings from JD Power, Consumer Reports, Motor Trend, Car and Driver, etc. Gotta have those good quality and reliability ratings. THAT will give a lot of the people that are unsure about this new technology that extra bit of motivation to go ahead and get a Volt.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:46 pm)40K sounds reasonable to me.
Compare a 40K volt to a cheaper hybrid car (i.e. 23K Honda Civic Hybrid averaging 42mpg) over 150,000 miles.
Assumptions:
– 100,000 of those miles the Volt drives electric
– Gas averages $5/gallon over the next decade
– Electricity averages $0.15/kwh over the next decade
So over the Volt’s 100,000 electric miles, you’d use 2500 8kwh charges at $1.20 each….or $3000 total cost and the Civic Hybrid would spend $10,000 over that same 100,000 miles (Volt saves $7000). The other 50,000 miles where the Volt drives on gas, it would still save about $1000 since it should get 50mpg combined vs. 42 combined for the Civic Hybrid.
So in energy cost savings alone, the Volt is saves about $8000 compared to a Civic Hybrid….thus narrowing the price difference from $17K to $9K.
Now, if you also assume a government rebate around $3000, then you’re looking at a $6000 premium for the Volt.
So is the Volt worth an extra $6000 over say a Honda Civic or Prius? It’s debatable but I’d say it’s pretty darn close. When you consider than the Volt is likely to be a higher end car (i.e. dual touch screens) and you’d likely have to add a few thousand to spec the Civic Hybrid to the same level the comparison gets closer still. It seems plausible that when you consider the energy costs over the life of the vehicle and compare the Volt to an equally well equipped car, the price difference could be under 5K.
So is the Volt worth an extra 5K? To me it is! That premium does not include the value of independence from foreign oil and the value of having one of the coolest and most important cars ever. Even ignoring this, an extra 5K is only $1.50/day over the life of the vehicle (10 years), so it’s like giving up a coffee a day to own a Volt over a Civic.
I’ll close by mentioning that all this rambling doesn’t consider that GM may sell the Volt at a loss. If they bring it to market at $35K, suddenly your business case vs. a Prius or Civic Hybrid is pretty much square.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:46 pm)Even 35k is still beyond the price of most mainstream luxury vehicles. 30k is the sweet spot.
Also, what is the guarantee that, in 2011, 2012, 2013, that the Volt will drop significantly in price? The window is small, here, to beat Toyota in price. This is something they must do, now that the Japanese are committed to plug-in Li-ion cars.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:46 pm)If GM can’t get the Volt price closer to $30,000 it’s because their sourcing department is doing a poor job of negotiating the wholesale price of components, particularly the battery. There are more than just two companies that can deliver a suitable lithium ion battery. ( Altair Nanotechnologies ) They need to emphasize the fact that this technology e-Flex is going to re-energize the industry like never before. They should also shorten or eliminate any exclusivity clauses from there supply contracts in order to attain better pricing. So what if LG, A123, or Altair supplies Toyota with the same battery after a year of exclusivity instead of 4 years. I’ll pay $40 for a Cadillac Provoque SUV not a Chevy Volt.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:55 pm)How ironic would it be if GM jumpstarted the entire industry, including Toyota and Nissan, into buidling REVs, and allow the very reason for this spark, the Volt, to be priced so as to fall behind the other manufacturers, who were not as instrumental in pushing this revolutionary technology?
Answer: Really damn ironic.
Jun 18th, 2008 (8:59 pm)How many times are you diehards going to let GM bitch slap you? Didn’t you see it coming? HAHAHAHA. GM blew it again and this time they will not recover. Dump your GM stock and sell those bonds while you can. At the yearly average income in America at just over $40K, this will NOT be a mass produced car. GM knows this, I know this and you should know this. Those famous words from the past…….”Priced comfortably under $30K”…..what a joke.
There will be lot’s of competition out there by 2010-2011. Toyota, Miles, Volvo, Mitsubishi, Smart, Ford, and more I am sure. There will probably be several pure EV cars that will do most folks just fine that will be priced “comfortably under $30K”.
Too bad….. this car was GM’s last best hope.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:02 pm)It’s not close to over yet, JR, but I agree with your basic premise. GM is not competing to win anymore. This brash new idea is a great one, but at 40k it’s not even close to being cost effective when you KNOW that Toyota will be getting its cars to over 60mpg easily.
Unless the cost of that battery declines dramatically, it will take a long time for GM to dig themselves out of this.
However, it took a long time for the Prius to catch fire, so, it’s not impossible.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:04 pm)Hmmm. My first prediction came true (That the Volt will not be affordable for the masses).
Now, for my other predictions:
- Real Volt will look nothing like the concept; in fact it’ll be closer to the Prius than the concept
- Expect delays
- Expect lame excuses from the top brass
When have GM actually deliver something that exceeded expectations?
This is a company where the top brass is not held accountable for any blunders.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:07 pm)Why hasn’t anybody answer my question? How much will a toyota hybrid be with lithum ion batteries?
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:09 pm)> #39 Plan B McFly
> GM is not in the business to sell vehicles at a loss.
Are you sure about that? When’s the last time GM made any profit?
LOL!
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:11 pm)65, we don’t know yet. But I think you’re crazy if you think it’s going to be 40k. Japanese companies have lower costs and prices, almost always.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:12 pm)Here’s the question: When Toyota brings out its li-ion plug-in Prius to showroom floors in 2011, do you honestly think it will more expensive than the Volt?
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:18 pm)> #62 JR
> ”Priced comfortably under $30K”…..what a joke.
My favourite is the whole “egg on the face on Easter” by Lutz.
With such boneheaded leadership, along with Red Ink Rick, why are everyone on this site expecting so much from GM?
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:18 pm)Toyota Pirus can come in at $25k + because it’s not useing litium ion batteries. Put litium ion batteries on that car and the price will go up. 35k. 40k, 50k.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:19 pm)I get that it will be more expensive, but Toyota will NOT bring a similar car to market for more than a shiny new Volt. They’re, you know…smart.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:21 pm)Also, isn’t Toyota going to be manufacturing their own li-ion batteries, thereby reducing the cost? Building them in Japan without union nonsense upping the cost?
I’m telling you, if the Volt is 40k for the first two years, Toyota will win. Period.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:24 pm)72 Kevin
Also, Toyota actually makes money building cars, and has plenty of cash. They can _afford_ to lose money.
GM: latest rumor is that they are looking for another $10Billion in debt due to cash crunch.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:26 pm)73, agreed. Any money lost on a plug-in hybrid will surely be made up by their complete Prius line, which will be robust by then.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:28 pm)What a joke! GM has never liked small cars. They could make more money on the big ones. Now the game has changed and they need to make a BIG profit on the small cars. It aint going to happen. Somebody else will come up with the right car.
Right now I drive a 97 4 door Suzuki Sidekick. I paid $4000 for it. Outside of spark plugs and one set of plug wires I have spent NO money on it. It gets 24 to 25 MPG in town and 28 to 30 on the highway. I also have a 1990 2 door that has 130,000 miles on it that I pull behind my motorhome. It gets even better mileage. If GM thinks I am going to spend $40,000 for a car they will be waiting for a very long time. I have much better uses for my money. I have always been afraid it would end up like this. When people wanted BIG cars that is where GM made their money. Now that people want small cars GM thinks that where the high profits should be. So be it.
I will stick with the cars I have. It would take forever to justify a $40,000 car. I only paid $50,000 for my 100 acre farm.
Take Care
Arch
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:30 pm)$4 gas is here already, with no hope of going down much.
The masses expect mid-20′s for the price of a ubiquitous hybrid.
Automakers need technology that will generate on-going profit.
Why is that so hard for some to see here? Solutions are needed now! How the heck will the development & refinement for Volt be funded if the business is continously losing money in the meantime?
Look at the components of Volt and Prius. Cost & Size of engine, motors, and controllers basically balance out. The battery is significantly bigger in Volt though. So, it will always cost more. There’s simply no way Volt could compete with the non-plug configuration of Prius… which is exactly what the current market is begging for.
In other words, kudos to GM for their effort to develop a viable product to meet the 2020 efficiency mandate, but what happens until it is available in large quantities at an affordable price?
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:32 pm)40K is expensive but hopefully it will not be out of my range. I would expect to spend 30k for a new car and the volt should have at least a 10k of savings over 5 years (gas, oil, parts) so that equals out.
Get this thing built.
Go GM!!!!
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:34 pm)76, yep. The irony, as I said earlier, is that they’ve fired up the competition re: plug-ins, but will surely get beat at the game they established.
They’re the 2004 USA Basketball team.
They should have worked on reducing the cost of the battery until they could deliver the vehicle for under 30k. But now Toyota’s jumping in by 2011, and I guarantee they will be cheaper than the Volt.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:35 pm)I disagree with all the folks that think Americans won’t buy a Volt
They want dependable high performance autos over cheaper models. They buy big screen HD TVs for the same reason. Americans like high quality and are willing to pay for it.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:36 pm)don’t fret too much…….they may offer some great lease deals…………who would want to own a first run of a technological revolution………….lease one drive it a few years and promote the technology, and get an even better one after 3 years with a super lithium battrey and 100 miles all electric range……I am sure residual value on these will be quite good………..
being green and reducing foreign oil dependence and reducing emissions is not about saving money……….its about saving the planet and our economy……….so how many dollars is that worth to you……..
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:37 pm)Except big screen HDTVs have a tangible advantage over their smaller counterparts; you can see more detail, get a better experience.
40k cars that rarely use gas will NOT save 15k over the life of the average vehicle ownership, not unless gas is at least double what it is now. There is no tangible advantage to this car at 40k.
And again, this is assuming that the Prius plug-in won’t beat GM at its own pricing game.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:40 pm)Leasing is an option if they can make it affordable. Never leased a car before, but I would consider it for the Volt. I do want this car to succeed.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:43 pm)We need to just cool it until we find out more. It is too early to get too excited about what we are finding out. GM knows what has to be done and they know that they can price themselves out of the market very fast.
I agee, it is going to hard not to look very close at the new Prius and the new Honda Hybrid when they are released. But, do so only if it is a have to case. Or look at other GM offerings until the Volt is released.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:43 pm)The chevrolet Volt won’t be 40k. I know toyota will produceing there own lithium ion batteries , but in two years they will have a hybrid with litium ion batteries at 25k? I don’t think so.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:44 pm)When I met Ed Peper (Chevy president) at Volt Nation that was precisely the price I told him that if the Volt was priced higher than I would likely go with alternatives like plugin conversions. So I’m in at that price. By 2010 there will be Saturn Vue plugin and likely an after market bigger battery by third party conversion shops. The problem with most hybrid conversions is that top EV speed is limited, whereas top speed for 2 mode hybrid (like Vue) will likely be much higher on EV only. An Escape hybrid converted to plugin is about $40K and a bigger vehicle, but not really made for plugin vehicle.
There will almost certainly be tax rebates too. Although Ed made it clear that he was hoping for $40K after rebates. Ed was almost trying to squeeze a little more out of me even though it was 30 months until the sale.
I also offered him a $10K check as deposit against a Volt returnable on only two conditions, delivery by 1 March 2011, and msrp of $40K or less for the base model.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:44 pm)> #79 Ed M
> I disagree with all the folks that think Americans won’t buy a Volt
$40,000 for what is basically a Cobalt skin, an econobox?
Granted, underneath, the drivetrain is completely different, but when buying cars, most people (not car nuts) generally look at size and style and price.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:44 pm)Have-to case? Or how about, I don’t WANT to pay extra for a vehicle that saves no money?
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:46 pm)Leasing is NO option for me. Thank you.
Their original statement was “Comfortably under $30,000″ which WOULD have made this car affordable to a lot of people, and would have made it a game changer.
But, if they are saying now they have to sell it near $40,000, then they can’t deliver on their “Comfortably under $30,000″ statement they made.
At $40,000, this car goes from ‘moon shot’ to ‘niche’ vehicle.
I mean, are they really serious about mass producing the Volt? At 40K, it doesn’t seem like it.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:46 pm)> #80 Brent
> they may offer some great lease deals
Great lease deals require a great resale value or a company with deep pockets to subsidize the said deal.
GM is not really known for either.
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:49 pm)A few weeks ago, the Hawaii Democratic party passed a resolution introducing a novel approach to financing PHEV batteries. The revenue neutral approach is not a subsidy. Assuming the cost of the batteries is $1 per watt, the customer would buy the Volt at $24,000. Electricity used to recharge the vehicle has a surcharge added to it, making it’s fuel cost equivalent to $3.80 gas. The surcharge is used to recover the $16K “loan” for the battery. Although technical decisions would be left to the utilities and the manufacturer’s battery engineers, the likely scheme for metering and any grid management features would use an EVDO chip. (Such features might include optimizing night recharge loading or even grid stabilization local power boosting). Surcharges are aggregated and paid out at a constant rate to the lenders regardless whether individual customers where low mileage drivers. The “loan” travels with the ownership of the car until the cost of the battery is recovered. Our state is tiny, but such a program could become a trial for a national program. Possibly GM and GMAC would be interested in submitting supporting letters to the legislative committees charged with implementing this policy? Who would I contact to about that?
Jun 18th, 2008 (9:58 pm)Well – they will sell every one they make at 40K – we all know that.
I think they should price it at 40K. Sell out these to the first 100,000 units. At that point, EV’s will have hit critical mass and there will be no turning back – the revolution will have begun and the rest of us can get Volt 2.0 .
Early adopters are in the thousands on any cool leading edge technology. The iPhone is a perfect example.
When I was young and stupid – I bought an Original Mac for 4K back in 1984 dollars!!! It had one floppy disk – a nine inch BW screen and 128K of ram.
Jun 18th, 2008 (10:01 pm)40k?
I’m out.
I realize GM is spending money on this – but I think that the price of cars is clearly out of hand.
There is a reason the auto companies WANT you in big SUV’s and have been shoving them down your throats for years – it’s because people pay A YEARS SALARY for one.
That’s ridiculous – I am sticking to buying used for now.
I think I could have stretched 30k – for a great cause –
but 40k?
Come on – I live in Canada – so GM will also try to charge me an extra 10 large.
No profit? I’m not buying that either.
SCREW THAT.
Jun 18th, 2008 (10:13 pm)$40K is the cost but what’s the price?
I would expect GM to price the Volt down the learning curve like Toyota did for the initial Prius.
Jun 18th, 2008 (10:17 pm)I should have added that as far as the owner is concerned, there is no loan. They have to pay for electricity going into their car at a much higher rate than normal, but it is equivalent to $3.80 gas which is a bargain at today’s prices.
The customer also can opt out- they can pay the $40K if they want to recharge at the normal electrical rates.
On the point of interest to the lenders- when I mentioned aggregating, I meant that surcharges are aggregated across all customers. This in effect means that higher mileage drivers are subsidizing lower mileage drivers. I should mention this point is not articulated in the resolution, but in my estimation that is how our legislators would likely prefer to implement it.
Lastly, there are limitations to the program. I mentioned full coverage of a 16KWH battery, but a battery capacity greater than that required for 30 miles of urban driving would likely not be covered by the program. This is because our state’s average daily vehicle mileage is lower than typical- about 27 miles per day. So the program might cover 75% of the 40 mile Volt’s price- making the sticker $28K rather than $24K. (Assuming a 40K base price).
Jun 18th, 2008 (10:20 pm)#93 That’s what I’ve been saying the cost wouldn’t be 40k….
Jun 18th, 2008 (10:34 pm)#66 mr_roboto
I’m sure, since the difference between vehicle profit and company earnings is apparent.
#64 Speedy
If I had to guess, I’d say Gen 3 Prius (with the Li Ion battery) will be priced about $4k more than the current Prius (say $28k?) (5Kw battery x $800/Kwh plus $1k inflation adjustment minus future value $1k Nickel Metal battery).
___________________________________________________________________
And my Plan B ?
To lease a Volt !!! :>) I figure after a 3 year lease, the Volt 20 (or maybe even a Plug Free Volt) will be hitting the streets in the low to mid 30′s price range.
Gotta keep the dream alive :>)
Jun 18th, 2008 (10:39 pm)Chill out:
I have said this earlier and the crazy different pricing and information leaking out is only making me suspect it further.
GM is on endgame status with the Volt. They were unprecedented in their openness when developing the vehicle, as such, 90% of their cards are face up on the table for all their competition to see. Heck, they even publicly disclosed the possible battery manufacturer’s, their names, and that the batteries were darn near even. A hard up competitor could be designing a mule right now with the expectation of bringing the loser of the battery contract into the fold and shave a year or two off R&D.
I take the idea that most of what comes out of their mouths from this point forward is FUD designed to confuse the competition on the 10% of the cards they still have face down.
It is either that or the Volt is not the 100-200k unit car that they envision and it is the proof of concept car to prove out the E-REV platform and a different car (or all of them) will be the mass market vehicle. Not many people are going to buy a $40,000 small 4 seater unless it has a corvette engine and tesla styling. At that price I would rather purchase a SUV Hybrid like the Saturn.
Jun 18th, 2008 (10:47 pm)GM dangled the concept before us – an affordable, sporty, homegrown 40-mile AER to calm our yearning. Her pheromones wafted far and wide. We took them in. We had to have her. Then, the wind shifted. At $40k, her allure fades for the common man. Not even nasaman could keep use at such lofty heights. We heard Statik. Our systems shifted to backup. We limped back to earth and the girl next door. Hello Prius, I’m sorry I was such a Pri-ick.
I guess GM will lead the E-REV race. But, the Volt is not yet the people’s car. It will take time to get there, if it gets there at all. Other makers also want to produce the people’s car. We’ve got options. I’m still holding on to my 1992 Honda Civic because the race is still being run to produce the car for me. There are affordable solutions around the corner. I’ll still be checking GM-Volt.com because you people keep me up to speed on what is happening. Thanks.
I hope things change for the better.
Jun 18th, 2008 (10:49 pm)Sorry but at 40K I’m out. I live 6 miles from work and don’t anticipate a greatly increased salary in the next few years. I do anticipate the cost of everything I HAVE to buy going up. You can call it whining but I call it reality.
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:03 pm)At $40,000 – I’ll take a Corvette. The price needs to be reasonable for the car. Volt, a small economical car – needs to be economically priced too. GM may need to take a small loss in order to get the car out the door. It’s an investment to the future of GM and the USA. If the car is reasonably priced for what it is – good transportation, it will become an investment and then a great sales tool in order to propagate it’s drive train across the GM line into all of it’s makes and models. If it’s overpriced for what it is – people won’t buy it and it will fail and so will GM. We are rooting for GM’s and the Volt’s success. We want an American company to succeed! I don’t really want to buy a Honda Civic – but I will if I have to. I have a 21 year old Oldsmobile and a 12 year old Chrysler and they are both in bad shape. I’m trying to keep them going until I can buy a Volt. But…. I have my eye on a nice used ’04 ‘Vette (I like a fun car!) but my practical side is looking at a new Civic. It’s a good looking car that gets great gas mileage. Mr. Lutz, I want to buy an American car. If it’s over priced, I think we all will lose. Well, you may not. You’re the CEO! Most of us are in the middle class or lower. You want to make crazy money? Make a lot of these cars and sell them at a decent price and you’ll eventually recoup your development and investment costs and we’ll all be driving Volt’s and it’s offspring. If not, we’ll be driving Honda’s Civic or new hydrogen car, Toyota Prius’, or whatever econo box that comes out of China. If you want to sell a few of these cars to the hollywood types for too much money, it’s not a sales pitch to us, the little people. The it becomes just another unreachable goal that we’ll read about in People magazine. Brad and Angelina buy a Volt. The rest of us don’t want to buy the foreign cars, but if that’s all we can afford, might as well give it up now and sell your GM stock options. Make the Volt affordable to the people, and we all can go to the bank together.
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:03 pm)Wow, we’re behaving like a focus group!
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:04 pm)#81 Kevin:
I think you missed the point you almost made. HDTVs cost more because you can see more detail and get a better experience… They don’t save you money! To say the \Volt has no tangible advantage over the Prius because it doesn’t save money misses the point that the \Volt will outperform the Prius in almost every measurable way, much like the HDTV! You will unquestionably get a better driving experience in the 8 second 0-60 \Volt than the 11 second Prius.
Is that enough to justify $40k? I don’ t know. I think that in that territory it could easily be a 4 second \Volt with a second 160hp motor on the rear wheels and we’d all be having a completely different discussion. But it’s a different question about how much the advantages are worth, not whether or not there are any.
#37 Ed M:
Oh, I don’t think I eat enough Dryer’s to affect \Volt affordability! And apparently, I’ll be eating 15% less, anyway.
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:14 pm)40K puts it way out of my price range.
I have no “brand loyalty.” Extended range via petrol (or some other fuel) matters little to me.
What matters to me is this: can the car handle my 25 mile round trip (w/ a little extra to spare) to work in all electric mode? Is it at least fairly reliable?
I don’t care who does it first — Toyota, GM, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Subaru…whoever can do these things and have the car cost as close to 20K as possible is who I’ll be going with. I realize it might be a while…
Peace,
Eric
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:19 pm)Well it has been a long night. It has also been a long dance with GM. I am glad to see it come to an end. Somebody will build the Volt. I do not think it will be GM. They have for years extracted their profits from the cars with the highest demand. Hey you want a big SUV you pay a big price. Now that we have a gas crunch they think they can pull the same stuff. Move the $40,000 price tag down to a car which gets GOOD mileage. IMHO it will not work this time. There are plenty of car companies out there that know how to build small efficent cars. It may take a year or two but somebody will get it right.
JMHO
Take Care
Arch
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:26 pm)P.S. I tend to keep cars a long time. If I buy something else in the next couple of years besides a Volt, GM will have to wait another 15-20 years before they get another chance to get my money.
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:28 pm)Toyota or Honda Volt? An interesting idea. Japan is famous for taking US ideas and making them better and selling them for less. GM, are you going to let them get away with this?
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:48 pm)While GM is going to play with the Volt’s cost and production schedule, Toyota is going to build a Prius that gets 90 MPG for $22k… I think Lutz shouldn’t be bragging about leaving Toyota behind.
Goodnight all…
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:48 pm)So Gm has offically said that the volt will be 40k? Oh what mid 30k? Oh what under 30k? Oh what Gm has not said the price of the volt yet? Just around 40k…. mid 30k I would said, and low 20k for a volt that’s pure electric.
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:49 pm)Nothing brings out the trolls and the “you have to help me” crowd like a pricing comment that they do not like……………..
If this “sell it at a loss” logic could be done, then why aren’t you all calling on the members of the board of directors of the oil companies to do the same for you????
As has been said before, until we see an actual sticker price on the window of a Volt, please take all of this with a grain of salt!
Jun 18th, 2008 (11:55 pm)“2009 Saturn Vue Two mode Hybrid Plug in” , 100 MPG+ GM will build that, 20k .
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:08 am)107 Brad G
Thinking about it… Lutz could be playing mind games with Toyota to throw them off…
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:09 am)1st, as others have indicated, I’m not sure how much value we should place on this “current” number… we keep hearing different things from different people at GM (and sometimes different numbers from the same person).
However, assuming they put a sticker price of $40k on it… as others quoted GM said originally and more than once that it would be “Priced comfortably under $30K”. I would have had to assume GM didn’t pull that number out of a hat… which to me begs the question that how did GM screw up the number so badly with $40k being off by 33%. No wonder GM is losing money, they can’t count
And by the way, someone mentioned R&D costs… I really doubt they are trying to recoup that in the 1st year or two… that’s something that needs to be amortized over many years, and not just on the Volt, but on other EV’s since most of the R&D is not Volt specific.
As for GM pricing it less than it costs to build… GM can easily do that and *without* taking a loss…. as they know full well the Volt really helps when it comes to their CAFE number… for each Volt sold they could probably sell at least two full size cars or SUV’s or trucks (these are all where the high profit margins are) and still comply with the higher CAFE numbers.
Someone above mentioned how much the EV-1′s cost to build, I think they said $80k… but one thing you have to remember is that the EV-1′s were essentially all hand built in small batches. It also had 26kwh worth of NiMH batteries for 75 to 150 miles/charge. The Volt essentially has only a 8kwh worth of Li-Ion (the other 8kwh of capacity is not being used) to go 40 miles/charge.
Of course the reason GM couldn’t use the same Cobasys NiMH’s is because they no longer own the patent (even though there are now rumors Chevron plans to sell that battery division that now owns the patent). If they had it, I still think it’s possible GM could have the Volt to the market sooner (the Li-Ion have always been the gating item), with the same 40 miles/charge range, and “Priced comfortably under $30K”.
At $40k, especially under the “Chevy” brand, I can’t see myself buying a 1st generation Volt. In the 2 1/2 years to the Volt’s expected late 2010 release, I expect to have at least one or two other choices from other companies (at least a 100+ miles/charge pure BEV), and firmer dates for others (such as from Nissan).
I think by 2012 we could see GM either purchased by another (foreign) auto company or go private (purchased by one of those equity funds) if GM indeeds prices the “Chevy” Volt at $40k.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:18 am)Oh yea, forgot to put in my usual plead to GM to bring back the Geo Metro! If 20 years ago you could make that 4 or 5 seater that got 50 miles/gallon, I’d love to see what you could do by putting your parallel hybrid technology into it!
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:18 am)The 1st generation Volt with a 16 kWh battery pack is priced exactly as I hoped it might be. You guys keep harping on GM, but it is not GM’s fault that the initial version will probably be around $40,000. It is the BATTERY PACK guys, the 16 kWh BATTERY PACK is expensive at this point in time and it IS NOT made by GM.
I know, at today’s prices, the advanced battery packs run from around $770 to $1000 per kilowatt hour. CPI has developed a battery pack that it can mass produce inexpensively, at much less than those prices. The cells use a wrap technology that is quick and easy to produce at high rates on a mechanized production line. The power density (pulse power) is great, at up to around 30C with no heat problems with the cells. The cells can also be charged at the same high rates with no damage to the cells. The cells are very stable with no ‘explosion’ danger. The useful lifetime of the cells are also great, over 15 years. Sounds great so far, but there is a catch. Remember GM’s design requirement for a battery pack that does not weigh over 400 pounds and has to physically fit into that ‘T’ design that the Volt platform is designed around? This inexpensive cell technology, still Li-ion, does not have a high ENERGY density. The energy density per pound is only about half of those expensive technologies that use nano this and nano that. Translation. That particular CPI battery pack will provide more than enough power density to supply a 160 hp motor (even the 209 hp I have read about), but it won’t store enough energy for a 40 mile AER range. In the Volt battery pack’s weight and volume restrictions, only about an 8 kWh pack is reasonable, about a 20 mile AER range. CPI has another battery technology that has over twice the energy density, but a slightly lower power density that will produce a 16 kWh Volt battery pack. That particular cell will be more expensive to mass produce, PLUS it only has a lifetime of about 5 years, so it is unlikely to be used unless CPI decides to provide short leases on the battery pack.
I don’t know much about the A123 battery pack, other than it seems it will be expensive to mass produce. $13,000 to $16,000 for a 16 kWh battery pack at today’s prices is a guess. I believe GM can produce the Volt car itself for mid $20k’s, then you have to add the price of the battery pack. A 20 mile AER Volt could probably be sold for well under $30,000, but the 40 mile AER 1st version that GM promised will probably be closer to $40,000 unless some kind of breakthrough comes from the battery makers.
My guess is that the first Volt will be the 40 mile AER version that GM promised, but it will have a $40,000 price tag minus any possible government subsidies to reduce the sticker shock. The 20 mile AER version should be on sale later the next year with a sticker price to be competative with parallel hybrids, mid to upper $20k’s and possibly with a government subsidy to reduce that cost. The 20 mile AER Volt will not have ‘half a battery’, but will use a battery pack that is much cheaper to mass produce. JMHO.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:19 am)I guess it could be a GM mind-$%^& and they will price it far lower but we will have to wait and see. Two years worth of emotional rollercoasters.
I still think a number of people will buy it at $40k and enjoy the psychological factor of “I haven’t put gas in it for three weeks!” while making $600/month payments.
And maybe it will be so cool we will be willing to pay that for it. I seriously doubt 100,000 per year though.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:25 am)$40K = take my name off the list. I’ll keep driving my Geo.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:27 am)Ya’ll know as soon as GM gets the Volt out and can see how well it does then they will transfer the technology to Saturn’s and other lines…
IE: The Pontiac Soltice and the Saturn Sky.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:31 am)#114 57silver,
That is the clearest battery “state of the play” I have seen to date.
Make my Volt a 20 miler.
Thank you for the information.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:31 am)I have convinced myself that Lutz is trying to keep Toyota off balance just like all of us are off balance by this article.
GM says Volt doing great on production schedules and cost around 30k. Toyota comes back with, we will make a plug in Prius because we see the Volt as a threat.
I think this is Sun Tzu and “The Art of War”.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:49 am)It is buzz kill!
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:01 am)Who ever here thinks they can get a prius for 22 k is smoking something.
Last time I checked they were more like way over 30k. Toyota says they are 22k but it its typical Toyota Marketing. Toyota ran out of batteries
Go try to buy one at 22k
Also buying a Prius is very bad because building on Prius with the heavy metals in the batteries is the same as driving a hummer for 20 years. Your almost better off just keeping your SUV and driving it slow to save the environment.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:03 am)$40K = GM fails.
According to my estimates, gas would have to rise to over $7.20/gal and electricity prices would have to remain unchanged for the next two years in order for the Volt to just break even with the price and lifetime energy costs of a normal fuel-efficient gas car.
GM had better hope future generation Volts come down in price, otherwise this vision of GMs will never become a reality. They should look into the possibility NOW of using existing and affordable battery technologies like NiMH (if they can obtain large-format batteries). Sure, it will be twice the weight- but it may also make the Volt affordable.
A 20-mile AER Volt using NiMH might just be a lot more appealing to buyers than a 40-mile AER Volt at twice the cost.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:09 am)Looks like fun to me.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=al4p1NLRLtHI&refer=asia
Take Care
Arch
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:09 am)$40,000…..???? Haaa, Haa, Ha. What a joke!! At that price they won’t sell enough to make ANY impact on the minds of drivers. The only people who will be able to afford it are the wealthy and they won’t buy one as a primary vehicle, they’ll buy one as a ‘look at me’ vehicle.
Looks like the Th!nk from Norway may be on the right path. They should have a North American launch in 2009.
Good Luck GM, keep going down your current path and you will have very deliberately created another EV1……
Ter
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:13 am)http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=al4p1NLRLtHI&refer=asia
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:18 am)#119 Brad G,
Or Machiavel and “The Prince”
Coming back to the discussion with Statik, this could be virtual (that is with products only in project) Bertrand competition, a move to attract the plug-in Li-ion Prius toward an higher price zone, to be able to form a win-win strategy where both automakers make profit by sharing the market at the expense of affiliated consumers.
The real products will be on the market at least 2 years from now, we should count the moves from each other automaker, I predict we will use more than the fingers of our hands.
As Arch says, take care …. and pray for more competition coming from other players than GM and Toyota.
JC
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:21 am)Thanks Arch #125
Here it comes;
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:28 am)I find it funny everyone is all clamoring about the price when we don’t even know what it will sell for yet. If $40k is the “breakeven price,” does that include all the R&D and preparation for it or is it just the material costs? If it includes R&D then it will be cheaper the next year. It wouldn’t be a surprise either given the massive amount of resources GM put into developing this car. Even if it was just materials, it wouldn’t be a surprise either considering GM is using the most cutting edge (and therefore likely the most expensive) batteries avaliable.
Given all that, Lutz say the retail will be “around $40k” and we won’t know for sure until the car comes out 2 years later. So it’s not like it will start at $40k for sure.
And where did all you people get that a Prius that will get 90mpg and be $22k? Are you talking about the announcement a while back about the next gen prius getting 94mpg on the Japanese cycle? I’m sorry, you guys will be severely disappointed when the next gen prius comes along.
The current gen prius gets 83 mpg on the same cycle; is anyone getting 84 mpg on their prius? People get a little more than half that at ~45mpg. So for the next gen prius expect around 50-55 mpg EPA. It’s just going to be a small bump over the previous one. Remember they are upsizing the engine and overall they haven’t changed the drivetrain, so why would you guys expect them to double the efficiency?
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:43 am)I and Kreskin prophesied we would end up buying a 010 Prius about one year ago.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:58 am)[...] Volt will retail ~$40,000 Link: GM-VOLT : Chevy Volt Electric Car Site
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:02 am)We can only hope that this is market research on their part to find the pain point at which we lose interest. $40K is not a car for the masses. Nor is $35K. GM can forget selling 100,000 cars – goodbye wait-list. Did they forget that granola greenies are mostly poor? Dangit! Don’t they get it? There is a market for a Cobalt with a battery. (Think) You need to promulgate the EREV to as many platforms as possible – now! Tell the bean counters to back off and take more lumps for a year. You can’t stick to niche markets and hope for profitability. You’ve got to get big numbers NOW and change the game. Start with the mass market, not the upscale. At least give us options: 20 mile battery? Leased battery? Try the Gillete razor approach.
At $40K, why did you call this a Chevy? You should’ve called it a Caddy. Actually, at this rate, you should’ve called it an Olds.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:20 am)I bet it wouln’t retail for 40k. No matter what anybody said.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:23 am)Kyle #131,
I completely agree with you.
When I was young and studied in California, I bought a second (was it third or fourth ?) hand Olds with a V8 engine, a true gas-guzzler. But this car was what is called comfort. The Opel Corsa I drive usually now is a far cry from the Olds from this angle but it uses a fifth of the fuel I consumed 30 years ago, runs faster and is a lot easier to park downtown.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:28 am)Does the volt started at 40k or under 40k answer please.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:30 am)If it starts at 40k how do you? And not bob lutz said?
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:58 am)Maybe all of you will/would pay cash for this car – but, me, well, I’ll need a car loan. According to some quick calculations at bankrate.com – if I buy a $40k Volt with $10k down – finance 30k – my payment at 7% for 5 years is $594.04. If the Volt is $30k – and I put down the same amt, then the pmt drops to $396.02. The difference between the $30k Volt and the $40k Volt becomes: $198.02 a month. Compare that to a high mileage gas car – with the Volt, (assuming my daily usage is less than 40 miles – which it is) I never have to go to the gas station. I don’t have to go to Jiffy Lube either. Would I say no to the Volt for a difference of less than $200/month? No. Sure, it hurts a little, but I’ll have the coolest car in town – way cooler than a ‘Vette – or any Escalade or Hummer! And I’ll almost never have to go back to a gas station…where I step into the oil-slick puddle on the ground, and get my hands nastified on the greasy-gas covered pump handle…
Seriously, most of us will need a loan to buy any new car. So what’s your MONTHLY PAYMENT breaking point for a Volt?
Jun 19th, 2008 (3:32 am)40K for a VOLT!?!?!?! Let see, the Prius 5 Door Liftback with:
Automatic Transmission – $29,500 CDN
Special Edition Premium – $32,530 CDN
Special Edition Premium + Nav. – $35,280 CDN
Hymotion Battery add-on – $9995.00 CDN
So, Prius ranges from 39K~45K CDN and dealers are not budging on price.
Lyle, keep me on the waiting list @ 40K for a VOLT 40, THX!
GO GM! GO VOLT !
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:29 am)Surprising, a small negative news turns all those Toyota bashing to GM bashing and Volt lovers to Prius lovers.
I am sure Bob’s casual comments on price were made with some motives, and was just testing the waters. The response from both public and Government is important for GM. I doubt whether even GM will be in a position to arrive at any figure two and a half years in advance. My own feeling is that Volt will be priced $30K with $5K plus or minus on either side
.
#114 57Silver
Thanks for the detailed remarks on the present day battery scenario. Even Bob has commented some time back that Battery is no longer an issue for Volt, which I feel is to be taken with a pinch of salt.Toyota maintain its interest in all areas of battery development- NiMH, Li-ion, and a new system under development.
Jun 19th, 2008 (5:36 am)Bring it on/out!
40K USD would be acceptable for a large amount of people in Sweden, not even considering that our gas cost 2.3 USD/litre and diesel at 2.5 USD/litre (that would be 8.8USD/gallon for gas and 9,5USD/gallon of diesel).
More then US sitizens has their eyes on this car.
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:29 am)Seems like there is a wide general agreement here that $40K is too high. And most of us here have been extremely supportive of GM and the Volt. So, if we are not buying it at that price, how will the masses feel about it? I think the same. This is incredibly disappointing news.
Toyota is nipping at their heals. GM can do such great things with this technology, including squashing the competition.
Could it be that sometimes you have to lose money in-order to make it?
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:29 am)Take me off the list…..I will not be able to afford this car and it will not save me any money. I will buy a Honda Civic or something in that realm and it will give me real savings in fuel and money. The point is that they, anybody in the automotive industry has to give people real savings.
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:39 am)Misleadfing headline, Lyle.
When Lutz tells the reporter that “the first-generation Volt will retail for about $40,000 and generate no profit for GM,” that’s NOT the same as Lutz saying the break-even is $40k. For all we know, the break even could be $45 and they are going to sell it at a loss, as hinted at in earlier posts.
I, too, would like to think that Lutz’s comment is a case of managing expectations so they can surprise us with a lower price (and reap the accompanying good PR) but that’s probably just unwarranted wishful thinking.
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:44 am)So much nationalism here, GM, Toyota whoever make it first will be supported by me.
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:50 am)#109-Exactly my thoughts
It will save me from going to the gas station, which aside from the cost aspect, I find to be a complete and utter waste of my time, not to mention all the noxious fumes you inhale coupled with the nasty pump handle that God knows who has had their hands on.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:05 am)In the industry I work in, product managers feel they have a good price for a product if 15% of sales are lost due to high price. In other words, if less than 15% of people reject the product because of price, then it is underpriced.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:08 am)Questions that need answers:
1. How much of this cost for the volt is due to the battery pack?
2. How much does the car cost without the battery pack?
3. How much of this 40K is R&D cost?
4. How quickly will battery production be able to be ramped up.
5. How long till E-Flex is available across the board in all vehicles.
My name has never been on the waiting list for the Volt. It is too long to wait and follow a car for ANOTHER 3.5 years before the car is available in the OTHER 47 states. Initially it will be only offered in 3 states, cal, ny and fla.
I like everyone want one NOW not 5 years down the road. One reason I follow this site is NOT because I am a huge Chevy or GM fan. What I was hoping to see was other car manufacturers jump on the e-flex drive train band wagon. So far this has not happened publicly.
Poulsen hybrid system might be my first electric vehicle or may a lionev.com type conversion. We will see.
Lyle you need to see about getting some info on the questions I posted. Inquiring minds want to know!!! Is there an E-Flex Silverado in my future? Or will I have to do a conversion?
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:09 am)$40K? I’ll take two please…
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:14 am)“$40K? No way!” If it’s that much, I’ll just get a Honda, or Jetta TDI that’s claimed to get 60mpg highway. With all the money saved from not buying a Volt at that price (about $17k) it’ll be dumb not to. I won’t pay that big a premium just to be a treehugger and end up probably paying as much on my electric bill as I would for gas anyway. As much as I hate to admit it, my grandfather is always right (in reference to when I told him I’d buy the Volt): “$15,000 for those batteries can buy a LOT of gas.” he said.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:22 am)Retail at $40k means nothing to me right now.
- Mainly because, I havent seen what it looks like (I’m one of those who need this car to look good on top of it being electrified)
- We dont know if there will be tax breaks or not…
- There’s a lot that could happen between now and the release, especially with the value of the US dollar…
I still want one but at $40k it forces me to have a “talk” with the wife…and discussions on finances in marriages should be avoided at all costs…I heard somewhere that money is one of the biggest things that couples fight about….I have been extremely lucky in this regard in my marriage thus far…. we pay the bills and the credit scores are good….so we dont talk about it because we dont have to.
I’d like it to stay that way GM!
Sell me one for $35k (or less) so I dont have to clear it with the family!
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:27 am)#97 Morgan
I agree, GM has been very open with the Volt and its development, but must keep some information confidential, as they cannot afford to reveal too much to the competition.
I remember the Gulf War, and Gen. Norman Swartzkopf having the media show clips of amphibious craft manuvers and than stating that any invasion of Kuwait would require these type of operations.
Months later, after the Iraqis had fortified the shorelines, the invasion came from land.
Some of us need to recognize the power of media in these circumstances when we hear discussions on pricing from this point forward.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:35 am)$ 40 000 No problem. First edition would immediately consumed in Europe or Asia. Americans will go for second better one. Volt will be something very HOT.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:37 am)Good morning!
Is this what it feels like to be on the side of the majority. Life is easy on this side. I feel like hen picking out random bits of the thread that people would agree with me on, it’s so addictive.
Couple things, then I’ll go back to lurking on this thread,
#26 Dave P
“For $40k, I want a caddy. I predict it will be $38k with a $5k gov tax credit available. We should start a pool.”
Good idea, I pick $46,200 (bottom-bottom line, just before taxes), regardless of government rebate….rebates just get eaten up by automakers. The only way the rebate works for the consumers is if it is announced -AFTER- the Volt price is firm (and by firm I mean they are taking people’s money…actual contracts). So don’t start lobbying until you get your money in, lol.
Secondly,
Who are you people that are still saying 35K, or using words like “I’ll bet” or “just wait”
You ‘uber-optimistic’ guys are great, I don’t even feel the need to call you out individually, that would be cruel.
Analogy moment: It’s like you guys are the ‘singers’ on the first 6 episodes of American Idol…you know the ones. Ok, whose next to sing? How about you over there in the tute? You look like a winner.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:44 am)Like everyone has said the MSRP will be what drives the success not their breakeven point. Maybe their breakeven point is $40k but they dont mind losing $15k on each vehicle in Year 1 just to get the word out and will sell them for $25k. We dont know.
But sheesh for $40k I could buy three of the Harleys that I want and get 50-55mpg every day. Since my commute is 60 miles a day r/t and I cant plugin at work thats not bad
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:45 am)Statik, #152. Good morning! I had a feeling you would enjoy all this negativity.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:49 am)Lots of references to tax credits here….Just remeber the credits will not appear if H.R. 6049 gets defeated by the Senate. We MUST let our Senators know that the Renewable Energy bill must be passed!
Write to your Senator (the House has passed the bill) and tell them how you feel. Public opinion is runing 75% for this bill but some senators do not seem to get the message….
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:50 am)If we start a pool… I vote that the entries should NOT include the guesses on government rebates. Its one thing to guess about what GM is going to do with the MSRP…. but I am one person who would like to keep the government OUT of my life as much as possible.
We cannot and should not count on them getting any such thing passed and/or implemented. If they do then its just gravy but NEVER count on it ! ever…..
Put me down at $38,500 …. oh sorry I mean $38,499
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:52 am)Well, what did we expect? A miracle? The first practical Electric vehicle (until technology evolves, I can’t call a car that doesn’t have a “Gas” backup system “practicle”) in limited edition for the same price as a Prius? I’m sorry to say that $40K is also out of my league (that means it will probably sell in Canada (if at all) for $45-50K). Guess I’ll have to wait for mass production and competition from other companies for EVs to be affordable…
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:55 am)I like the idea of a pool. Let Lyle hold the cash in a high interest account for two and half years, and whoever win’s gets a major discount on their Volt! Say $1.00 to get in, and say we have a perfect world so 30K GM-Volt.com site members are in, the winner comes up with 5 to 10K and has a Volt!
Actually so much can change that it’s impossible to say how much the Volt is going to sell for, or if the government is going to kick some cash back to us. I’m just waiting it out. I like the car. At 40K it’s a bit high but I will still be interested. One other thing people need to consider, this is going to be a tough car to put into mass production. The pricing of the car can also control the demand. Remember when no one could get a Prius? People paid outragous prices for them, and Toyota allowed it. So PLEASE don’t bad mouth one company, they all play the numbers game.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:55 am)Also just wanted to follow up with whoever said that oil is not the solution.
I fully support the Volt and cant wait to get one and I fully support looking at every single alternative energy source out there. But we cant stick our head in the sand over this, no pun intended. We are going to be a petroleum based society for years to come. We’re just not going to wake up and not need oil. We cant demand on one hand that OPEC raise production levels and on the other say eh, not interested in exploring off our own coast, why dont you guys just make more oil for us? Its hypocrisy and ignorance all rolled into one and it really infuriates me when I see the Democrats talking like this. A balanced energy plan would include pushing hard for long term, alternative, renewable sources of energy – AND exploring for every single drop of oil we can get ourselves. Even if its only 1% or 5% of what we use total, so what? Thats just that much more we dont have to rely on someone else for. Oh, and I also believe that simply announcing we are going to look for our own oil would crush a lot of the wild speculation in the oil markets and drive the price down. So what if usable oil would be 3-5 years off? Clinton vetoed ANWR in 1995 saying the oil was 5-7 years off and wouldnt help anything.
Anyway, end of soapbox.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:56 am)Another observation. Where are all the “mileage math” guys from the last thread? I’ll help you guys out, with some suggestions.
“Well, for me personally,” (this is a great way to give really specific information that exactly meets the sweet spot of the Volt that no one can argue with)
“I drive exactly 40 miles a day to work,” (don’t we all?)
“My work has plugs in the parking lot,” (naturally)
“so I will be able to recharge when I’m at work, then drive 40 miles back home,” (cool beans for you)
“…and I am an American, I work hard…365 days of the year!” (Yes, sweet, sweet 365 day math).
“According to ‘Fatty Monroe’ who is a well respected journalist in Uganda, he thinks…no he KNOWS gas prices will be $15 gallon in just one year” (yes, all internet articles are true…even if there are conflicting ones)
“so there therefore, I will be driving exactly 29,200 miles, and my electric is only 8kWh here, so thats like $850 a year” (I’m sure you do. I’ll bet there is no ‘add-on’ fees on your bill either. Hey whats the rate in California, New York and DC again?)
“so compare that to your 25 mpg car. NO! You can’t compare it to the Honda Civic, Prius or the other 45 cars over 30MPG…I am talking about comparing it to ‘real cars,’ of which the Volt is one” (one that is on Cobalt sized platform)
I could go on…but there is probably a word limit, and possibly a ‘smarm’ limit per post.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:58 am)@Statik
Have you tried switching to decaf?
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:04 am)$40,000? Thank God for the Aptera.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:09 am)#154 Rashiid
“Statik, #152. Good morning! I had a feeling you would enjoy all this negativity”
It so good…it really is. This is the kind of thread we need.
If GM reads the ‘fan board’ and sees threads like this and not ‘kiss-kiss-love-ins,’ they are far more likely to act in our interest rather than their own. Ultimately, a more streamlined, higher production, cheaper vehicle is in GM’s best interest, they just don’t realize it.
They are clearly trying to replace their lost SUV/big auto/truck market with high priced hybrid/electric cars. “Affordible electric cars for the masses” is no longer the slogan.
Unfortunately, even with the Volt, GM may have to wake up to the fact that the economy may be in no shape to support ANY volume 40K+ car in 2010, electric or not.
It looks to me like GM is betting on things like sticking a ‘hybrid’ sticker on the side of a expensive vehicle, (lowering it 5MPG) and hoping to get sales out of it. Ever wonder why there is no ‘hybrid’ sticker on a Cobalt or a Wave?
If we continue in this recession (or go into it…depending on your definition), and I figure we are going deeper, people will only want/only be able to afford to the ’15-25K/35+ MPG’ vehicles.
GM would be better served to add alot more product like the new turbo/4 banger Cobalt (or whatever they are going to call it). That is if GM can actually produce one at a profit with their monsterous overheads.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:15 am)it never ceases to amaze me how many people would be willing to spend $45k on a Tahoe to pull a boat (something you don’t do every day) or $67k on an Escalade (posers vehicle that is about as off-road as a Hyundai Sonata) yet gripe about a price that we can’t yet even confirm. There are a few people here that said the car will be too expensive. The car won’t . The battery will. There may be a way to lower the price of a Volt 40, but you may not like the answer. Lease the battery. (oh, that’s right-nobody likes that idea.) They could reduce the range (20 mi AER, but everyone thinks that’s a crock too).
Truth is that GM is going to price it where it feels it will do the most collective good. I don’t mean to burst anyone’s bubble but “taking a loss” and “giving it away” are two totally different things. Cars themselves are not at all very expensive to build. But as many pointed out, it is the battery and the technology you’re paying for. Do you think a Volt would cost as much (hypothetically) if it were equipped with a 2.0 litre EcoTec? You want the price to go down? E-mail the battery company and ask them to ease the price point that GM has to pay. The battery costs are the real variable. I’m not very knowledgable about the batteries so I’ll just leave that to you here who know what you’re talking about. But I do know that the battery costs too much to begin with. But you always pay more for something new. Ask anybody who got hosed out six bills for an iPhone only to have the price cut 2 bills in less than 1.5 months, only to have a better 3G version come out in less than a year for $200.
The early adopters of the Volt WILL pay for that privilege. The true conundrum, my friends is “what’s it worth to you?” Besides, with inflation going up approximately 6.1% every year, if a Volt were available yesterday at $35,268.84 and increased 6.1% for the next two years (federal average) it would come out to be $40k in 2010. So instead of kicking GM, mayge you should be kicking the battery companies for making the packs so damn high and kicking our politicians about EREV tax incentives and raising the minimum wage. When’s the last time it went up?
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:19 am)$40,000 is not too bad. The difference in the payment between $30,000 (where everyone wants it to be) and $40,000 (where it sounds like it will end up being), shouldn’t be too bad considering what you will be saving in fuel costs. Obviously interest rates, down payments, and length of financing all affect this, but if you are in the 70-75% of the population that will be able to commute without using any gas, hopefully (after accounting for the cost of electricity), you would still be coming out ahead. I personally drive a Land Rover and get 12 MPG. I spend $115/week on gas. The $460/month I would be saving in gas will go a long way towards making up the difference in payment between a $30k car and a $40k car. If I spend the same as I do now, or even more, and don’t use a drop of imported oil, I will be elated.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:25 am)#161 Brian,
“Have you tried switching to decaf?”
I have no vices, other than unrelenting postitive thinking and optimism.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:26 am)Probably out of my price range too, though a lot can change in 2 years. Hopefully battery technology will get cheaper and the 2nd generation Volts will be closer to 30K…
Then again, if the current inflationary trend continues gas will cost $8 per gallon and $40K won’t really be that much.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:27 am)I wonder how much of that price is labor and how much cheaper the car could have been if it was built in Mexico for example.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:28 am)I rarely go to the forums, but I started a “guess the Volt” retail price thread.
http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?t=790
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:30 am)Note that he says nothing about the price coming down, just that they will start to make money as mass production reduces cost. The price will stay the same once released.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:32 am)Thank you, Andy # 165. Too many people in the US spend too much money driving around in their living room as it is. If you want a Volt 40, just start saving for the down payment (I mean, it’s not like it’s coming out next Tuesday). You really can’t argue the Volt versus gas car argument for the short term anyway.
Honda Civic (33 mpg)x 120 miles=3.63 gallons x 4.00 gal=$14.52
Chevy Volt (40 MAER)x 120 miles= 3 recharges x 0.80 KwH=$2.40
So for every 120 miles I save $12.12. Wow! That’s 2 filet-o-fish combos with Dr. Peppers and a McNuggets kids meal for my 5 year old. Since we can’t eat regular unleaded (makes my tummy hurt) that’s not bad.
I’m being very sarcastic but in truth, y’all, let’s just wait and see. This isn’t the first time GM has had to recant a statement to the press…
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:36 am)#168 Roman
Mi Amigo? Su commentare es muy malo por hombres in los estados unidos trabajare.
With that comment you hear the collective rage of about half a million pissed-off UAW members.
my spanish is a little off. It would hopefully read something like “my friend? your comment is very bad for people who have to work in the united states”.
I need spanish classes.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:36 am)@171 Firefly
Well, your Volt example assumes that you are recharging. What if you had to drive that 120 miles straight? Thats 80 miles of gas driving. Sure its still better but not all of us will have the luxury of doing sub-40 mile drives.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:38 am)#58 Dan
> Assumptions:
> – 100,000 of those miles the Volt drives electric
> – Gas averages $5/gallon over the next decade
> – Electricity averages $0.15/kwh over the next decade
Out of curiosity, why do you use $5/gal over the next decade? I’m hearing they expect gas to hit $5/gal this summer, possibly even by July 4th weekend.
I have no facts to back me up, but I have to be honest, I suspect we (the USA) are going to be seeing european type pricing ($8+/gal) within the next few years and I just don’t see any way that you could get gas prices to “average $5/gal over the next decade”.
At $8/gal or worse, even 90mpg is going to be expensive. I don’t know if I will be able to afford a Volt, but … until I see the actual MSRP, I’m still interested and will be following this closely.
pat—-
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:40 am)Its funny, so far I have recieved 3 Chevy work vans from my company. All brand new, all delivered to my door.
The first was delivered with loose bolts in the front suspension. It was all over the road. Then the power steering failed every 7000 miles for the rest of its life.
The second was DELIVERED with a bad alternator. Not just bad but with failed bearings that screamed in pain when you stepped on the gas.
Yesterday they delivered a brand new 2008 Uplander. The speakers on the passenger side dont work. Im still waiting for the grand failure…
Every GM product I have ever owned or driven has had constant problems and I was the first owner on every one of them.
My point is this, if they cant get a simple ICE vehicle right what confidence can I have in a newly developed electric vehicle? Why should I spend $40k for something that will fall apart?–
Because the world is changing and I’m hoping GM changes with it. I would love to see GM turn around and be a world leader not just in crappy cheap vehicles but in a game changer that can turn this country around.
I feel this way not because Im green or because im a gear head. Its because I’m an American.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:40 am)#173 DC,
thanks. I forgot about that. I was assuming a city cycle. I apologize. I may be dedicated, but far from perfect.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:41 am)When the volt comes out, $40k is a very fair price. GM probably wont be able to make them fast enough to meet the demand for the first year due to battery supply. Once they can make them fast enough that demand isn’t greater then supply, then the price will go down. By this time, economies of scale will kick in a bit and the price will allow GM to make it affordable for the masses. I think they are on the right track, people who cant afford it just need to wait another year drive the coolest thing on 4 wheels.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:47 am)All of you Prius lovers are forgetting one thing. It’s a chick car. If you’re a man you better not be seen in that thing. I’d gladly pay $10,000 and still have my pride.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:49 am)Statik the first mention of a production date was 2010. Only references to 2009 that I can find were incorrect reports that were quickly corrected.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:51 am)If you want to sell electric cars they need to compete favorably with gas and gas/hybrid cars. If GM puts to much of a premium on them they will not sell. Basic economics rules for those buying these cars still applies. If the battery is expensive lease it until production costs come down from economy of scale. Keep the basic car affordable.
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:15 am)Folks,
You need to take into consideration two things (and these are rough estimates)….
If you spend $80/week on gas, you’ll be saving approximately $4160 if you’re only running on electricity. That plus a $5-10,000 rebate knocks that vehicle back into the realm of affordability… just a thought.
Chris
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:18 am)I have paid $40k for a car before. Every day, people pay $40k or more for a car.
Guess what $40k cars look like? Sexy kickin’ with exteriors that turn heads. Guess what $40k cars don’t look like? Runt-of-the-litter econo prius-boxes.
Please keep it sexy, and I will pay the sexy price tag.
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:24 am)$40,000, Just show me the car…
Then, I can decide if it is worth it… it has be a looker… at that price..
Ray
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:38 am)______________________________________________________
Dear $40K is to high bloggers:
I’m generally hearing on this blog thread that $35K works but $40K is a deal breaker.
I’d rather GM sell me (and the other thinking Americans) the VOLT at $40K than have GM further subsidize the VOLT program by another $500,000,000/year ($5,000 X 100,000units) in the first couple of years. I’d rather GM take that $500,000,000/year and further R&D the VOLT platform so it can more quickly be applied to their other portfolio lines.
If financed by your local credit union, we are talking less than a $90/month delta in payments between $35K and $40K. That $90/month becomes zero or less than zero when factoring the gas savings and other related maintenance costs associated with an ICE. There are also tax credits, time saved not pumping gas each week (what’s your time worth?), and ability to drive in the car-pool lane (what’s your time worth?).
The VOLT program represents a significant inflection point on three levels: 1) American energy independence which is a significant national security issue, 2) Keeping $$$ and jobs in America, 3) Good for the environment. What I find sort of amusing is that some of you guys are OK buying Starbucks coffee (spending $100+ month doing that) and then b*tching while your sipping your coffee about how the MAN is out to get you, how GM is trying to rape you by pricing the VOLT at $40K, how we need to do something to save the environment, how BIG OIL is taking advantage of you. This is a tough love moment guys; you know who you are. It’s time for you to step up to the plate and actually support a movement beyond just blogging that cost nothing but your idle time. Let’s get real.
If GM decides to VERY deeply subsidize the first two years of the VOLT program (MSRP under $40K), I’ll take those dollars and join you Starbucks fans for a cup of coffee each morning.
The VOLT is a very cool car. I’ll wager that the VOLT will quickly sell out and show up on eBay for 1.5X> of MSRP even at $40K MSRP. Comparing it to the Prius is ridiculous at many levels (technology platform, cool factor, performance, American made). To me the Prius is void of inspiration when compared to the VOLT.
______________________________________________________
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:44 am)Statik @160 the point of 365 day math (if you read the post) is not that Americans work everyday, but that Americans drive everyday. Now, if all you do is drive back and forth to work, park your car in the garage, and post on the blogs, by all means, mock 365 day math. If you have a life, cart your kids to games on the weekends, go shopping, etc., visit your relatives on holidays, then 365 math is a lot more realistic.
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:57 am)I have read so many unintelligent remarks, it makes me understand why GM and this country, hopefully not, is going down the tube. Some think GM can and should sell the Volt for a much lower price. Some think GM just don’t like small cars, is conspiring with big oil and will never follow through with the Volt. Some think Toyota is some kind of God and can never do any wrong. Some complain the Volt will only do 40 miles w/o using any fuel and we are going backwards because the EV-1 did more miles. Some say they do not want to spend 40k because already they know the Volt will fall apart. Others think GM is not opened enough.
For those folks who think that way, wake up and see the real world. Wake up— and instead of complaining, look at some of the great accomplishments that we in this country have had. Have more faith Of course along the way we made mistakes but we always overcame them.GM is not your enemy. If you keep that kind of mentality, we will surely become a third rate nation.
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:58 am)PHEV on fire and explosion
http://www.dailytech.com/Retrofitted+Plugin+Prius+Burns+to+a+Crisp+CRN+Garages+Fleet/article12132c.htm
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:01 am)172 Firefly
Lesson numero uno:
¿Como estas frijoles, cabrito?
Translation:
How you bean, keed?
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:02 am)DT #178,
“All of you Prius lovers are forgetting one thing. It’s a chick car. If you’re a man you better not be seen in that thing. I’d gladly pay $10,000 and still have my pride.”
Wow there must be a lot of transsexuals those days on the roads of California and elsewhere, I never tought of Leonardo Di Caprio to be one of these.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:03 am)If they can sell out the first run at $40K, then more power to them (heh, pun intended). That proves the viability. I don’t know how wise it is to buy a vehicle like this the first year or two anyway, unless you can afford to lose money. GM is no Toyota when it comes to quality control. Hell, even the Prius was a POS the first year it was sold. My advice to the non-rich people here, like me, is to marvel when the Volt first comes out and then follow it for a few years to see where it goes. By then, we may have a Prius that does essentially the same thing as the Volt.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:06 am)DT #178,
“All of you Prius lovers are forgetting one thing. It’s a chick car. If you’re a man you better not be seen in that thing. I’d gladly pay $10,000 and still have my pride.”
Well I have been put in moderation by saying that I never thought that people of an other gender than the one they seem to be drive a Prius now. Is Leonardo di Caprio a woman ?
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:07 am)I guess I do not want a new car as much as many of you.
Take Care
Arch
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:12 am)#178 Omega
I assume we are going back to the last thread were you called me out and said, “Statik you never fail to amaze me with you downward outlook on the Volt. You complain about everything and make false statements to back up your pessimistic outlook…Anything short of exceeding perfection with you is viewed as a horrible failure. Despite you outlook the Volt is on schedule.”
So you’ve made a random statement here, we could have just let it die on the last thread. I didn’t want to get into it there with you either. I just said I don’t make false statements, go read the old threads.
Here we go:
1,000 units in 2009, and I see no “quick correction” at all in the replies. Thats a whole thread, not a “reference” Maybe you can point out the ‘retraction’ to me in there?
http://gm-volt.com/2007/06/18/1000-volts-to-be-produced-december-31-2009/
Here is the consumer cost under 30K, for old times sake:
http://gm-volt.com/2007/05/17/volt-to-be-less-than-30000/
I know you want to post the “Bob reiterates the 2010 target launch date thread” but you don’t want to show the part about “working prototype by 2007. I’ll do it for you. Where’s that prototype at?
http://gm-volt.com/2007/03/06/gm-reiterates-2010-target-launch-date/
Lets add in the crippled gas range thread:
http://gm-volt.com/2008/04/11/volt-gas-tank-shrunk-maximum-range-reduced/
More fun times: No more ‘affordable car for the masses’, it’s now limited city release:
http://gm-volt.com/2008/04/10/more-from-bob-lutz-on-the-volt-roll-out-plan/
Oops, Volt redesign:
http://gm-volt.com/2007/03/09/new-volt-re-design/
Volt on sale in Australi in 2011? What? Yupe that sounds reasonable, or he was just telling a Australian reporter what he wanted to hear? Sounds familar. Yeah he mentions 60K again, “in the very early stage we want to get to 60,000 a year” and apologies for the Volts new look, “The back-end looks a lot like the concept car, but the front-end and cabin look quite a lot different unfortunately,”
http://gm-volt.com/2008/03/26/lutz-details-volts-new-design-and-production-plans/
And how about 60,000 Volts in 2010?
http://gm-volt.com/2007/08/22/60000-chevy-volts-to-be-built-for-2010-model-year/
Fact is, I could post direct threads from this site almost endlessly, all with no mention of the facts being in error anywhere in those threads.
I have no doubt you’ll come back with a answer for all of them, and I could post another 6, and we could repeat this all day long.
I’m pretty confident in my record here and I stand by it. In interest of board sanity, I’ll not respond at all to your rebuttal. So have at it…the floor is all yours.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:12 am)Observations:
There are some people not willing to spend around 40k for a Volt, where you’d see a savings return in about 3-5 years the way gas prices are going, but you spent WAY MORE on girlfriends, boyfriends, spouses and children and you typically see a return on your investment when:
(a) the girlfriend/boyfriend agrees to marry you (good luck)
(b) you and your spouse reach retirement age (avg. 40 years)
(c) your children graduate from college, have good jobs and are self sufficient (approx. 24 years depending on career)
There are some people who think it would be cheaper to lease the battery. If you lease your 3 bedroom/2 bathroom house for 30 years, what do you end up with?
There are some people who thiink that GM should sell the Volt Gen I for under $30,000. Would you sell your children (who are priceless) for under $30,000? If you would, there’s someone at Social Services that’s dying to meet you…
There are some people who are convinced that they know what the Volt’s MSRP is, along with everything there is to know about it. If you knew all of that 2 years ahead of time, you’d be so rich the price wouldn’t bother you and would have already started your own site instead of chasing Lyle for inside info.
There are some people who think that any new start-ups can just jump in overnight and overshadow what Toyota and GM still have yet to perfect. Go buy one and write me a review.
There are some people that berate GM for trying something innovative and squawk all day about how it won’t work and GM will fail. Have you designed something better? That will work more efficiently? And if so, how can you have 50,000 of them out in 6 month?
…oh yeah, and can we have it for under $25k?
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:15 am)since Prius starts at $21k, I cannot imagine the plug-in in Prius for much more than 30k.
I was really hoping to buy a Volt, but at $40k there’s just no justification, especially given that Nissan and Toyota are both working a models.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:15 am)#188 Mien Green
Hola, mi Volt amigo. Que pasa?
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:19 am)#192 Jack,
Please remember that Toyota had a 5+ year head start
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:26 am)Good grief. At $40K, GM will sell every Volt they can make though 2011. Granted, they won’t sell many to the army of angry selfish whiners that comprise most of this forum, but sell them they will.
Personally I’m waiting for the 2011 Prius. I heard it will cost half what a Volt costs, it will have twice the quality, it will run on water, and get a 1000 miles per gallon. Only the Japanese could create such a car.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:27 am)#175, Robert V.,
No worries. GM’s spending a lot of extra time detailing the undercarriage of the Volt, so that it looks good on the lift.
#185, MarkinWI,
Whenever anyone “computes” the payback on the Volt, they look at 40 miles/day X 365 day/year. That is the absolute best-case on Volt economics.
Who drives 40 X 365? Everyone’s daily driving varies – and usually by quite a bit. Yesterday, I put no miles on my car. Next weekend, I’m going out of town.
If you go on a driving vacation, do you plan to do 40 miles per day on your way from Milwaukee to Orlando and recharge every night? Nope. Your trip economy on that is going to be come pretty close to the projected charge-maintenance mode fuel economy of 50mpg and you’re going to use about 24 gallons of fuel each way. If Toyota’s Prius comes with superior aerodynamics and achieves 55mpg on the highway, it will actually use less fuel on that vacation.
If you don’t go anywhere one day per week, you do save a bit on electricity but the Prius also uses no fuel… the payback window closes.
Other Volt expenses remain constant… the vehicle will depreciate. It will require insurance (price insurance on a $40K car vs a $22K car). It will be taxed.
The $18K or however much the Volt costs over a Prius also represents an opportunity cost. If you have $40K cash and buy a Volt, you’re all in. If you have $40K cash and buy a Prius, you have $18K left over to invest. Getting a return of 5% is not unreasonable, your $18K could be worth $900/year, which you can apply to a fuel bill and you still have $18K in capital.
If you want to buy a Volt, go right ahead. But, short of gas so expensive that life as we know it ends, you can not pretend a $40K Volt has a payback.
#Various, Various Posters,
The base Prius MSRP is still $21,100 or so. Two months ago, I test-drove one and Toyota had a fair amount of inventory and was dealing, you could get under MSRP. However, I merely drove it out of curiosity, our cars are reliable, get pretty good fuel economy and we don’t drive much, we’re not motivated to spend a lot of money on a 50mpg car.
Today, Toyota dealers are not dealing. They are ordering highly optioned Priuses instead of the group 1s and 2s, knowing they can sell them and they are making hay while the sun shines (on them).
Why is this? Because there are no other choices. GM, Ford and Chrysler don’t have good small cars. GM and Chrysler are very late to the hybrid party and their small cars get mediocre fuel economy and aren’t attractive in the face of $4 gas. Ford’s Escape hybrid is a good vehicle but is more of a niche hybrid and doesn’t offer 40+ highway economy (aerodynamics rules). The Civic isn’t as good (but Honda’s now selling out of them, too, so it’s good enough). GM doesn’t even make their BAS hybrids available, so there’s no sale there.
If GM had a good, high-mileage hybrid, they’d be taking their share of sales, cleaning up and putting downward price pressure on the Prius.
Unfortunately, they don’t GM’s Hail Mary Pass Play is late and going to be expensive. However, you can get a really good deal on zero-mile (but very dusty) 4WD Silverados at your local dealer.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:28 am)Personally I’m going to continue to take a wait and see attitude. One thing not mentioned in this thread (although it has been mentioned in other threads) is the future availability of gas. Current hybrids do not run in EV-only mode except at low speed. If the net price ends up being $40k that may end up being cheap insurance against gas shortages.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:30 am)#195 Paul-R
Did you know that back in about 1992, a japanese chemical engineer made a 1980-something Corolla that ran off water? No joke. Last I heard years ago is that Toyota paid him off to not ever bring his designs to life; somewhere in the realm of $50 mil US.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:31 am)MarkinWi: “Statik @160 the point of 365 day math (if you read the post) is not that Americans work everyday, but that Americans drive everyday.”
I think you are missing Statik’s point. The point he is tryin to make has nothing to do with what you wrote… only on how he can twist it to make you sound silly.
Oh and Statik I love you too. Just a little banter. All in fun.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:32 am)#179 Omega
“Statik the first mention of a production date was 2010. Only references to 2009 that I can find were incorrect reports that were quickly corrected”
Here is a WHOLE thread, entitled “1000 Volts to be Produced by December 31, 2009″, perhaps you can show me the “quick correction” in that thread.
http://gm-volt.com/2007/06/18/1000-volts-to-be-produced-december-31-2009/
If your going to come back at me saying that the only acceptable source on anything Volt is a direct quote from Lutz then, then we can’t read or rely on anything on this board because he doesn’t ‘do committments’ He lives in the world of ‘hope to’, ‘we expect to,’ and ’95 percent’
I rely on Lyle to put up the facts he believes in, as he is the closest non-GM person to the project, not me or you…and I rely on him to print retractions when it is wrong.
I guess this is the official checklist:
A) No specific release date
B) No specific prototype date (actually he did, end of 2007, but he recanted two months later)
C) No specific release locations other than 3 states
D) No specific price committment
E) No specific production quantity committment
F) No specific design committment
So from a technical standpoint, they can pretty much do or say whatever they want. (Other than random Lutz sprout-offs. Remember the interview to the Australian reporter, he told them they can expect a Volt in Australia in 2011…priceless, or the working protoype in 2007…classic)
However, they have clearly managed our expectations in the way that benefits themselves, regardless of accuracy and knowing full well that reality does not agree with the words they are speaking.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:35 am)Even at $5 gallon, a $40K Volt is not cost effective – too bad because I this WAS going to be my next car. This is now out of my price range – I’ll probably be looking at the new Honda. In anyevent, I’ll have my new hybrid/electric way before GM makes this affordable. I just wonder whose going to buy this at $40K?
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:36 am)I don’ t pretend to speak for everyone, but as for me…
I need the Volt quicker, rather than cheaper. I’m going to buy a new car soon, probably Fall 2009. I would rather buy a Volt than a Civic hybrid (my 2d choice) or a Prius (my 2d choice). It depends on what’s available at that time.
If I’m going to buy a car priced over $30,000.00 in Fall 2009, $40,000.000 isn’t much of a stretch. It’s worth it for a car with Prius-like mileage on gasoline, and 40 (almost) free miles every day. C’mon Bob, we need the Volt, ASAP. Every hybrid sold is a lost Volt sale. That’s lost GM profits, gone forever. Hurry up, shake the bugs out, and sell the darn thing. I have to decide soon.
I hope the Volt uses regular gas – after all, it’s an economy car, not a Corvette.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:43 am)Crap, too slow to edit it out.
I realize I don’t really want to go down this road. Ignore post #200 if you would. Hrm, well you probably can’t.
Rebut with whatever, I’ll not respond…this thread is depressing enough for me already. (Really? Depressing enough…is that possible….I guess so).
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:49 am)I am halfway through the comments. Many are misguided.
Chevy brand is for the masses and $40K price is not – true. Despite the *INITIAL* high price, clearly they want to make it affordable long term. For the 1st model they want to impress everyone and make a big statement, so clearly they are not compromising on features which is keeping the price high. I am certain that following models will offer lower prices with less features and/or smaller battery.
In fact, the initial price even at $40K doesn’t matter. What *DOES* matter is limited 1st year run (10K) and availability of batteries. Clearly such a small production in the 1st year will be bought easily by the early adopters that are not price sensitive. In fact, just the cool factor alone (silent, clean, etc.) means that many celebs and rich will claim most of the 1st year production and for them anything below $100K is cheap. So for the 1st year at least it is clearly not a mass market.
To the contrary, it will take several years and a lot of work to push battery production volume to the point where Volts and other hybrids can be sold to mass marker at larger volumes. In that case the initial high price tag doesn’t matter.
Meanwhile, other GM hybrids using smaller batteries will likely have both higher volume (because they need less batteries) and lower price, while use less gasoline. That is a necessary compromise short term. These vehicles will offer a much better cost/benefit ratio.
Regarding Prius and claimed 90mpg for plugin version. 1st it is an obvious fact that it will cost more than the present model’s $22-$24 base price. When they use a bigger and more expensive battery pack than the current cheap $2K NiMH pack then clearly the new battery alone will add around $5K give or take. Considering the high inflation (falling $USD) it is clear that the plugin Prius will be closer to $30K. So you are not going to get 2 Priues cars for the price of a single Volt. That is just too naive. However, the new Prius may still be more cost effective. Depends on your driving patter, commute distance, etc. So it is a close call.
Finally, odds are high that there will be some sort of eco-rebate offered for Volt, just like the one was available for Prius. Say ecoRebate is offered in the $2-$4K range. Then even $40K MSRP after rebates would still be close to the original $35K everyone seems to accept.
The bottom line is that waiting lists for Volt will be so large that the initial price just won’t matter. Also Prius won’t be so cheap, so their comparison won’t be so clear cut. Even Prius is expensive compared to sub-compacts, so there is always something “better” or “cheaper”.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:49 am)155 George…..
Sadly, I just got this reply back on H.R. 6049 from Bill Nelson, my senator from Florida (& former astronaut)….
“Thank you for contacting me about H.R. 6049, the Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act of 2008.
H.R. 6049 would provide tax incentives for energy production and conservation and extend tax benefits to individuals and businesses. The House of Representatives passed H.R. 6049 in May, but the bill failed to receive the 60 votes required for cloture to proceed to further consideration in the Senate. I voted in favor of cloture because this legislation would provide much-needed relief for American taxpayers and help put the United States on the road to energy independence.”
NOW’S THE TIME TO WRITE OUR SENATORS & CONGRESSMEN AGAIN, FOLKS! HOPEFULLY, A NEW MEASURE WITH REBATES, ETC WILL BE ONE OF THE 1ST THINGS THE NEW CONGRESS & ADMINISTRATION PASS NEXT YEAR WITHOUT THREAT OF VETO!
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:50 am)I never considered it likely that I would get my hands on 1 in 10,000 early Volts. $40,000 is perfectly acceptable for the “I have to have the first iPod” crowed … provided it starts to come down pretty quickly thereafter. I’d love to do my bit for God and Country, but I don’t have unlimited funds. I was thinking around $32,000 would be the highest I could go.
My decision now has to be,
1) Do I keep my current car (a 2002 Saturn) for another 4 years (Volt prices not likely to drop 25% by 2012, but they could), with the option of a used POS car if it dies in the meantime, or
2) Do I trade now for an econobox and watch the playing field even longer than that?
I’ve never bought a used cheap-mobile before (but I haven’t bought an electric car before, either). If I trade now, given current gas prices, American makes don’t rate highly on my scale.
Sadly, I will apparently not have an early role to play in these ground-breaking developments; I’ll just have to sit, wait and watch; as I have for 40 years.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:51 am)$40,000!!!! Once again, I’m beginning to lose faith in the domestic brands. I currently own 4 cars, all American. I was truly hoping to own a Volt, but it will never happen at $40K. $30,000 is my price point and it seems like there are many others who will no longer own one as well. So much for creating a car for the masses! Twice the price of a base Prius….it’s just not worth it! Lutz likes to ridicule his Japanese counterparts, but at least the Japanese know how to create a car that people can and actually will buy.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:55 am)# 205 Statik
…I’m sorry…
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:01 am)#209 Firefly
Lol.
I hate the moving thread numbers, I guess Lyle is going through his ‘moderation box’ right now.
Should be in reference to my post to Omega @ #202 (for the moment)
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:03 am)195: Hola insecto del fuego.
Por nada. A estos bozos me estoy divirtiendo. ¡Que ultraje!
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:06 am)#201 Omega
“Oh and Statik I love you too. Just a little banter. All in fun.”
Indeed. I don’t know how I got all up in arms so much in #202.
I wrote a small ‘tame’ thread, it disappeared…then a big long one, which also disappeared after I danced around the site for like 20 mins. Fortunately, I did decide to not cross post my zillion links, but I’d rather have posted nothing…the edit window timed out the second it opened, sigh.
I’m just a little burned at the moment, I guess.
/move along…nothing to see
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:22 am)Earl #30:
That is exactly why Lutz made the $40K comment. “Oh mista Government, we’re tryn’ SO HARD to make a green car for all of us, but it’s SOOOOOO expensive. We need your helps!” It’s a good idea to start “making” the evidence that you’ll be showing to Washington in 2 years.
Frankly, it makes the most sense for the first Gen1 Volts (the first 3-6 months of production) be uber-green status-symbol cars that they can sell to Hollywood and the other disposable income folks for $60K+. Give it a limited edition “Green Machine” moniker/ badge and make up as much R&D cost as possible. GM will get some killer PR out of it, AKA: “Who saved the Electric Car.” Once that well starts to dry up, GM announces that they have found a way to cut costs and have created a $25K “Volt for the people”. At this point Washington sees the Volt as a no-risk move politically. They announce a major tax break for plug-ins.
I know I know… I want a Volt now too. But if GM doesn’t do this, I’ll lose some respect for them. It’s the best way to start the eRevolution. It’s a lot like what Tesla wants to do by moving from the Roadster to the Whitestar, to whatever their “budget” car will be. Start where the margins are high, make the mistakes there, then mass produce the hell out of it. GM is just doing it a whole lot faster and with a lot more resources.
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:31 am)i would pay 20 but not 40 , i can buy a lot of gas for the extra 20
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:37 am)Trying to get back on the right footing:
GM stock update for all you exectutives who read the site!
GM hit another all-time low today: $14.39 (off 50 cents). Currently down .32 @ $14.57
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:40 am)As several here know, I’ve devoted considerable time to searching out information on the development status of both A123/Conti and LG/CPI on their Li-Ion batteries for Volt —work that’s been in progress for 1-2 years now by both companies. For those here who haven’t had time to dig into the specifics of this, here’s the bottom line: There is already compelling specific evidence from both companies that both will be able to supply production quantities of 16kWh batteries to Volt specifications for substantially less than $5k, probably less than $3.5K. (Please search yesterday’s topic for my posts 91 & 132 for specifics/references).
Therefore, I’ll say once again that a strong case can now be made that GM should be able to sell the base Volt at an MSRP of ~$28,000 …..WITHOUT LOSING MONEY! (This of course assumes NONE of the Volt development costs will be amortized as part of early Volt sales, but instead spread over other models sharing the drive train technology during several future years.) If GM decides to price the Gen 1 Volt at $40K, they are clearly & unmistakably doing so at the risk of severe criticism by automotive writers/experts, which would risk further tarnishing their long-suffering image in the eyes in the American car-buying public!
In other words, any MSRP significantly above about $28,000 for a base 40mi AER Volt, i.e., pricing at “what the market will bear” should be considered exploitive price gouging —particularly when the final battery costs are known and in light of the original GM statement that the Volt should sell for “comfortably less than $30,000″!
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:40 am)Final numbers in today of how many took ‘the package’ This is the early ‘iniative’ not anything to do with the annual meeting hulabaloo closures and packages.
DETROIT (AP) — General Motors Corp. says 18,657 of its hourly workers will leave the company by July 1 through buyout and early retirement offers. The company previously said about 19,000 would accept the offers. It released final numbers on Thursday.
GM expects to replace some of the workers at a new entry level wage of about $14 per hour. That’s about half the rate of current production workers. The departures will help GM as it closes four pickup truck and sport utility vehicle plants.
I guess you could take this news as positive if you like.
(=
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:42 am)Here are some slightly different thoughts on Lyle’s post. The quote in his post is ““Lutz said the first-generation Volt will retail for about $40,000 and generate no profit for GM.”
The subject of the sentence is “first-generation Volt”, which is (guessing at it) maybe 25,000 cars over 2 years. That aggregate number is what will bring in about $500M and it is the aggregate that will “generate no profit for GM”. At least, that’s what the sentence says, read literally.
It’s interesting to think about what the sentence does not say, too. For example, the sentence does not say that each car will cost GM $40K to build. From what we know about costs, it is likely that there is a significant margin on each car sold beyond its production cost. The aggregate first generation sales (rather than individual cars) will “generate no profit” in the sense that a lot of the $500M can go to repay development costs. That’s believable, and consistent with the fact that Bob Lutz is hardly going to present the car to the public as profitable while the corporation is simultaneously asking for govt rebates.
In any event, my opinion is that GM will find it easy sell all 10,000 Volts at $40 to $46K each in the first year in their designated early markets of CA, NY, FL and DC, if the car looks sharp. There are plenty of people in those states with the interest (whether vanity, green affinity, technical interest, or anger with big oil) and they have the money to cover that small a total number.
When a future year comes when volume is 100K or more, price would be an issue. However, Mr Posawatz has already told us, a few topics back, there there is another more humble Volt20 coming along at about half the price. If so, that can be the car for me and maybe lots of other people.
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:48 am)Dear Nasaman #216
I like your insistence on the estimates you propose and, as you have shown before, your knowledge surpasses by far ours.
So I shall promote your proposition that :”GM should be able to sell the base Volt at an MSRP of ~$28,000 …..WITHOUT LOSING MONEY! “;
Like you, i dislike “exploitive price gouging”.
I hope, NO, I’m sure you are right.
JC
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:48 am)GM loses billions a year, why do they care so much about breaking even first year? take the hit and sell a ton of Volts at an artificially low price, ($30k) and when production costs go down, they’ll start to make money on them, and be glad that so many are out already. This will probably mean the competition will beat them to the punch. We’ll see! Maybe ultra cap technology will help lower the price in the future
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:50 am)Hey Jean Charles, are you out there?
(or anyone else that wants to comment)
What do you think about calling the current market in “stagflation”?
(rising inflation with zero growth, if your not up on the lingo)
Here is a nice article on it from Forbes from today. Has some interesting thoughts about abolishing gas taxes (although he fails to give the counterbalance of what to increase to make up the difference).
The author does turn a nice phrase for being a capital markets guy, “For guys in work boots and single moms holding down two jobs to make ends meet, life turns ever more miserable as the tightening vise of inflation bites into the flesh. You’re already spending 15% of your income at the fuel pump. The pickup truck sits forlornly in your driveway. Going to the movies is a big-ticket item and you can’t afford to eat in fast food restaurants more than a couple of times a week.”
I think the statement is already a reality for too many people.
I know this has nothing to do with the Volt directly, but in the big picture it does.
Although I live in Canada, (and we have had a certain degree of insulation, as does Europe/Asia), it does give me cause for concern…and I have personally taken some drastic steps both in my portfolio and at home to protect myself before it affects me directly.
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:50 am)>> Please remember that Toyota had a 5+ year head start
Try 10 years. Sales began December 1997; back when gas was cheap. Then consider how fierce the resistance was to hybrids, where the many in the industry (including GM) were doing everything they could to undermine progress.
In other words, that history has little relevance to what is happening now.
Of course, many now don’t want to face the reality that Prius (its technology, not just the vehicle) is an ally. The actual competition is the upcoming flood of mini-cars, low-tech efficiency vehicles. They do absolutely nothing to help the advancement of automotive batteries.
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:50 am)#2002 statik
1000 “produced” in 2009 is not the same as “sold” or “delivered” in 2009. For example, maybe 889 will be used to test various paint colors
or given to friends of the management 
More seriously, it could take quite a few for different kinds of physical and employee testing, and to build up some level of internal experience with what is a really and truly new car design.
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:52 am)If Bob Lutz thinks the Volt is going to be a money loser, tell him to try pushing big SUV’s like the Hummer and Suburban on the buying public. Then he’ll really get a feel for what loss means.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:00 pm)Statik Re: #202.
A) No specific release date
B) No specific prototype date (actually he did, end of 2007, but he recanted two months later)
C) No specific release locations other than 3 states
D) No specific price committment
E) No specific production quantity committment
F) No specific design committment
I don’t expect any of these things any time soon.
A) They are probably just now getting plant retrofit estimates, and production lead time estimates from suppliers
B)Still testing individual systems (the Malibu Mules), prototype integration comes when all those systems are cleared.
C) I would expect the release locations will match with what GM believes will sell the most: California, California, California.
D) They can’t give a price commitment: They have to amortize tooling, R&D, Fixed Costs and many miscellaneous costs into the Volt to arrive at a table that says: we are break even at X price and Y units. I would be shocked if there is even a firm breakeven price at this point
E) Battery. Quantity is dependent on the Battery manufacturer as it always has been for this vehicle.
F) There is a design committment it just hasn’t been made public.
Not knocking, just these are the realities. MOST of this information GM has a very legitimate business reason to keep confidential from their competition until they are ready to reveal it, which I would guess would be about 6 months or less before the Volt hits the dealer lots.
Just take anything publicly states as an “if” “maybe” or “I am flat out lying because I WANT to mislead Toyota, Honda, Ford, and everyone else that is actively following and reacting to the development of this vehicle”
In the simplest sense, Toyota’s recent spate of announcements the last month or so means that in the EV and Lithium game of chicken Toyota jerked away first and now GM is wanting to keep them jerking. stirctly IMO of course.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:00 pm)#216 Nasaman
I appreciate all the digging around you do and your knowledge in this subject, I clearly have limited to non in relation to yourself.
I believe you have made the right conclusion as well. The Volt is making money at 28K.
You do have to factor in the development cost, but that goes into the ‘R&D Budget’ of a company and hits the overall bottom line, and you can’t only do R&D on a product on the basis of that product paying you back in 3 years….to use that as a excuse for pricing is weak.
The 40K+ number is 95% a product of demand and intentional limited production for the purpose of gouging, (think video game consoles at Christmas…produce just enough so that everyone can’t get one). I’m not saying that it is necessarily bad, but it does credit a emotion in the minds of GM’s customers. What that translates to in the end, or what the consequences are, I can’t say. Might be no consequence at all, certainly not at gas over $6/gallon. Might be some blowback if gas went back under $2.00
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:21 pm)#224 Morgan
I read your post, but I kinda wish I didn’t put it up in this thread, so I’m not commenting on it…hopefully it gets buried. Too many fish in there.
Have a good one!
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:26 pm)Statik, #220
I’m there and reading your comments, more scary than the one about the gender of those who drive a Prius (DT #178).
Well this analysis is practically the same as the one after the first oil shock (except that in 1975 onwards the interests rates where far higher than now).
If the US are in stagflation (the same apply to Belgium, France, Germany, etc.) the result could be that in effect low, and even middle income families will suffer.
Yesterday in the center of Brussels we had together more than 300 tractors driven by the angry farmers, 200 big trucks driven by the angry truckers and more than 300 Taxis driven by angry taximen, all protesting against the high cost of inputs and the low price they get for their services or production. Remember I live in Belgium where prices are regulated;
It took 10 years in the ’70s and early ’80s for the economic system to change structurally (i.e. with irreversibilities like double glazed windows, more efficient engines and heating systems, etc.) with a lot of people leftover and still suffering of a dramatic loss of purchasing power.
Hopefully, it happens that if good decisions are made, it will not take 10 years to change the system but the change must be rapid enough to help people not to fall in poverty.
We need Bob Lutz think like Henry Ford because the risk exists that people with damaged purchasing power will not by buy even a 28K $ Volt. Henry Ford thought that his workers had to have sufficient purchasing power hence sufficient real wages to buy the Ford T. He was thinking contrary to the “common sense” which was to lower the wages to increase the short term profit.
We need to get rid of the imported inflation through high oil prices and rebuild a sound financial system (even if the short term profits suffer) to make the economic system in a free market economy benefit to most of its agents.
JC
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:28 pm)Statik
Mixed up comment numbers my comment #227 refers to your comment now #225 not 220.
JC
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:31 pm)nasamn said:
“There is already compelling specific evidence from both companies that both will be able to supply production quantities of 16kWh batteries to Volt specifications for substantially less than $5k, probably less than $3.5K”
No, I won’t search for your previos posts and your evidence is useless. This price is a joke.
For starters, Prius NiMH pack costs about $2K using older/cheaper NiMH cells and having only about 2 kWh. Clearly it is ridiculous to claim that a 8x bigger pack costs only about 2x more?!?!?!
In any case let us stick to facts:
B&D VPX battery cost today in stores is about $20
It consists of 2 A123 cells.
Nominal 7V, real 6.6V, 1.1Ah = 7.26 Wh @ $20
Thus,
16000 Wh / 7.26 Wh = 2203 VPX batteries for Volt size pack
2203 * $20 = $44,060
The difficulty is that we don’t know what is the markup, or how these smaller cells compare to larger format built for GM. Also, note that these are bare cells without any control logic (small batteries don’t need much fancy electronics)
The precise cost is not important. What is importrant is to realize that the 16 kWh pack costs far more than your stupid $3.5K claim. Even $10K is too conservative. It is clear that the pack with associated control logic is well over $10K and the costs for GM are high.
That being said, if you wish to sell to me a 16 kWh A123 pack for $3.5K then I’ll buy it
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:37 pm)I’m surprised no one has rebutted eisemann-theater’s post with the misinformation: “Also buying a Prius is very bad because building on Prius with the heavy metals in the batteries is the same as driving a hummer for 20 years. Your almost better off just keeping your SUV and driving it slow to save the environment.”
See
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080512170921AA2Btbz
and
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2006/10/05/oh-so-a-hummer-is-not-greener-a-prius/
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:38 pm)#181 – Hey man – Electricity is not free – But your point well taken – just needs adjusted.
But i agree – $40K is well within the reach of millions of americans willing to buy this. And for those who think theres no demand – why is it that the when you see a Toyota RAV4 EV on ebay it is selling for 60-80 thousand right now? Even Electric S10′s are going for $10-15 thousand with no working batteries.
People are wiling to pay for electric vehicles.
I also believe that the resale of these vehicles will be a higher percentage than nearly all cars on the road.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:42 pm)Yes, without a hefty tax break I will have to wait it out as well. I think it’s good for people to react to any news on this site, whether whining or praising the news. GM is listening and it needs to hear from the masses to price to the masses. I was willing to spend 35K, but I can’t do 40K (my wife is already giving me crap for 35K). Take a hit GM and change the world or enjoy your EV2 experience. There are just too many cheap cars with good gas mileage to compete (and in 2010 they will be better). I will do my part and contact my senators to support a tax break. Keep up the good work GM.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:50 pm)#227 JC
Ironic you mention the 300/200/300 vehicle protest, as we had a similar display in Oshawa yesturday, all the workers slowly driving circles around the GM plant, lol. Not protesting for the same scenario of ‘cost inputs,’ but still ironic.
I was further humming along, until I hit this comment, “It took 10 years in the ’70s and early ’80s for the economic system to change structurally….Hopefully, it happens that if good decisions are made, it will not take 10 years to change the system but the change must be rapid enough to help people not to fall in poverty”
This is where my concern lies. Not so much in the economic situation of today, but how we got here and more importantly the future response of how to deal with it. So far the most common response seems to be denial
This is also the reason why I say I believe GM intends to built the Volt 100%, but then quote their stock price/cash balance and their need to raise more capital on almost a daily basis. Not just to be a ‘jackass,’ (that is fun too) but to demonstrate the drain current conditions are having on the ‘middle/low’ class of manufacturers.
Much like your reference to long periods of stagflation pushing lower and middle class into poverty it will also certainly claim it’s counterparts in the corporate world.
Jun 19th, 2008 (12:56 pm)#14 noel park:
The Smart is available in Europe with diesel, but not in the US. There have been rumors that they’re coming out with an electric Smart any day now, and rumors that they’re now available in Canada right now, in the smart blogs but not on the official smartcar site.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:00 pm)Everyone has a theory on what the Volt costs to produce. But I’d like to caution that this isn’t your regular mouse/rubber band drive train technology. Right now GM does not have a healthy bottom line and it will probably be worse in two and half years. Their bread and butter production, SUVs etc. is not selling well anymore, that’s why they’re closing plants.
To try and float the Volt at an under cost price just isn’t in the cards. Many people will buy the Volt at $40000 and as production ramps up the law of economics says that widgets get cheaper to produce thus reducing the cost.
Its important that GM charge enough so that they can cover any expensive recalls. I think GM is calling this one just about right.
Entering the car market with the Volt on the left coast is the best strategy. People from Wa, Ore, and Cal. have been more willing to try new innovation. The development of companies and industries like Boeing, Microsoft, Silicon Valley and the Movie Industry are some examples plus a huge environmental movement and the freeways are absolutely bunged up.
If the Volt won’t sell there, it won’t sell anywhere.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:02 pm)Statik:
You’re rounding to HUNDREDS?! And I also note you’ve crossed over the cost of the Corvette which may be an embarasment for GM since they’ve stated the Volt is not going to be a Corvette. However, that being said, I don’t think that price is out of the ballbark.
All:
Here’s a value angle nobody’s mentioned for a hypotheical $40k price tag… The irony is that $40k for a Volt would be a fantastic investment opportunity if they stop making them. I cite the Toyota RAV4-EV, which sold for about $40k with a $10k gov rebate, so you could get one for ~$30k. Once they were no longer made, the prices steadily went up. Last time I checked they were going for about $60k on ebay and that was long before $4 gas. And this is for used ones nearing the end of their projected lifespan, too!
So, either way, you can win. If it looks like Volts are going to be successful you can wait and get an e-flex cheaper. If it looks like they’re going to be unsuccessful (and GM pulls the plug on the program, heh heh pun intended
you can buy one at the $40k price and it will probably increase in value.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:04 pm)$26,600 is the Maximum for Competitive Volt Pricing
Price/Performance Competitive Analysis
What is the estimated price at which the Volt can be a popular (within top 4) hybrid? If we look at the top four hybrids we see that their average MSRP is about $23,000. What competitive advantages does the Volt offer?
The other hybrids offer at best only 50mpg mileage. At $5.00/gal, the yearly cost of gas for these vehicles is $1,200 more than the Volt. Studies show that the typical buyer will only pay for 3 years of energy cost saving for a vehicle. That’s a $3600 dollar premium for the Volt.
The typical buyer is not going to appreciate the technology difference between series, parallel, or E-REV hybrids. Competition is a moving target. By 2010 the competition will probably offer a “plug” to make them “plug-ins” and perhaps also Li batteries. The buyers pay an extra $2000 to get the Nissan Altra’s 198 hp performance (The Volt has 209 hp).
Conclusion: For the Volt to be competitive with the four most popular hybrids, its cost/performance must be comparable. The price point for the Volt to be popular is $23,000 + $3600 (mpg) + $2000 (performance) = $28,600 (2008 dollars).
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:09 pm)Holy Crow! 237 comments before I GOT here! This is becoming a full time reading exercise. My lips are getting tired!!
Be well.
Tag
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:12 pm)There is only one way I’d buy any car for 40,000 dollars in my life.
it comes with a complete, bumper to bumper warranty, for 200,000 miles.
That would be 10 years of transportation, 4,000 a year, 333 dollars a month. and a little fuel. otherwise there is NO WAY I’d pay that much. I could buy a vacation house for that in some places.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:14 pm)I have no idea why my comment about 30 back has been “awaiting moderation” for 2+ hours (I didn’t even use swear words), so I’ll just try leaving the bottom line:
I’m forced to take a wait-and-see attitude, perhaps until car-after-next.
I think that applies to most of us.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:14 pm)237 Tom:
Depends on the marketing campaign:
GM Could run a mass amount of commercials to differentiate the Volt:
1) The first 40 is Free
2) First Forty Miles MPG? Infinite
those are just two ad campaigns that would stick in people’s brain easily to educate on the E-REV vs. Plug In hybrid.
Statik:
Understood. Will let your post die.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:14 pm)#237 Tom
I totally agree with your price asessment. About $30k is my upper end for a high-volume Volt.
I believe that GM can sell $40k-plus Volts to the enthusiastic early adopters and some hard core fan-boys, but it will not be a true Prius competitor at that price.
Lyle; the headline is very misleading/wrong. There is nothing that Lutz said indicates that “$40k is GM’s break-even point”. He said that $40k is what they expect to sell it for. Two very different things!
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:19 pm)#234 Ryan Plut
I own a TDI (Euro Spec) Smart Car…I live near Toronto. They were available here thru Merceded from 2005 until recently, when the new and ‘unimproved’ version came out for the states.
Great car, I am averaging a ‘REAL WORLD’ 68.9 MPG out of it…if you like playing the ‘how high can I make it go’ game, my personal best is about 90 (but I annoyed alot of people doing that, I wouldn’t suggest it).
As for the ‘Electric Smart’ being available in Canada right now…yes, just rumoUr (note Canadian ‘U’). They are, well they did test it here, don’t know if they stil do.
I actually got to check it out…which was pretty cool…there was 2 of them, (red and gray) just in the last gen TDI shell.
More specifically they were testing the new Li-Ion pack as Smart was already government lease electric fleets in Europe, running Sodium-Nickel-Chloride . The UK ones get about 65-75 miles a charge, top speed of 60 mph. The ones in Canada were topping out just north of 150 miles and the governed 80 mph.
Ironically, the test run up here was to make sure that it didn’t flop before they do a ‘test run’ to show it off in the states. Does that make sense? Doing a test…to make sure you pass a test? I don’t know.
I would look for the Smart to actually move into production on this little number, fairly quickly and unannounced. The only hold up has really been the price of the Li-Ion batteries, as the car has a certain ‘price expectation’…looks like that hiccup is working itself out.
Little to no modding is needed as the rear engine configuration can be swapped out (it’s just under the mat inside, and weighs like 50 pounds, lol) and the car has a double floor, the packs in the mules are just stuffed in there easily.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:23 pm)#236 DaveP
“Statik:You’re rounding to HUNDREDS?! And I also note you’ve crossed over the cost of the Corvette which may be an embarasment for GM since they’ve stated the Volt is not going to be a Corvette. However, that being said, I don’t think that price is out of the ballbark”
Hehe! Well there is a reason:
My guess of $46,200 is ‘bottom line’ before taxes or $44,900 + $1,300 Freight & PDI, total of $46,200.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:29 pm)#238 Tag
“Holy Crow! 237 comments before I GOT here! This is becoming a full time reading exercise. My lips are getting tired!!”
“My dad tells me the only people that read with their lips are mental patients and Texans”
(credit to BNB)
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:31 pm)Statik #233
You wrote ;”Much like your reference to long periods of stagflation pushing lower and middle class into poverty it will also certainly claim it’s counterparts in the corporate world.”
That’s quite right.
JC
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:32 pm)Hey Nasaman,
Canuck #229 has impolitely “dissed” you.
Since I agree with you, I am very interested in reading your rebuttal.
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:36 pm)Did you all forget the EV1 !!!
I can’t believe they have the nerve to come out with an electric car and make it seem “new”. If they had only kept that line going, we would have all the needed power as the car buying public slowly changed from gas to electric. Now with gas prices so high, they won’t be able to make them fast enough AND we do not have the power grid to charge them all.
Way to drop the ball GM!
“Who killed the electric car?” Watch it and cry!
Jun 19th, 2008 (1:41 pm)DodgeThis, #248.
I’m sorry. I don’t think anyone here has heard of this EV1 thing.
And
“Who killed the electric car?” What on Earth is that?
Seriously though, if the price for the Volt is over $30K, it is simply a niche car and not a game changer.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:01 pm)Rashid,
You are correct that Volt is not a “game changer”:
- oil going from $20/barrel to $140/barrel *IS* a game changer
- SA not having any spare capacty *IS* game changer
- gasoline prices not having a limit (always going up) *IS* game changer
*THE GAME HAS ALREADY CHANGED*!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Volt is just trying to catchup.
Sure, $40K may be too high for you. That is fine. You’ll just need to use some of the alternatives: walk, run, horse, train, bus,….
There is a shortage of gasoline. In North America it is manifested via increasing prices. In Asia and China in particular many gas stations go dry. Eventually our own stations will go dry.
So think again what price is too high.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:04 pm)Statik you are right about me not holding GM to third hand information posted on this site.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:09 pm)Everybody knows good and well that for some reason or another, MSRP will be assessed based on the costs of the battery and what type of software runs/regulates the charging of the car. Building the car itself without the fancy software or LED dash or E-Flex won’t cost any more or less than building a Cobalt. Just hope that (1) Hollywood doesn’t get the whole lot first, (2) the millionaires don’t get the whole lot after them, and (3) dealers won’t try to rip us off by marking the price up. GM needs to guarantee us that insane markups won’t happen-which would cause us to go ape and beat up the salesman…excuse me, salesperson. I’m relying on GM to give first shot to all of us, especially Lyle, since were it not for him, they probably would not have received half the exposure that they’ve gotten for the Volt and the Prius would go on unchallenged. I say sell it for $33,500 and give the GM-Volt.com waiting list priority.
…seems like a good idea, but that’s just me…
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:16 pm)Gas Shortage = Myth…. and even if it isn’t… your government is working on it:
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/june2008/190608_a_deals.htm
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:26 pm)I’m just going to wait for 2 1/2 years and make a final purchase decision when the Volt finally arrives at the Dealers and I can see the cost for myself.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:29 pm)Sounds like current battery prices are $4,000 per 10 miles of driving range, with lifespan of 10 years. So 10,20,30,40 mile models would cost $28,32,36,40K.
Just make sure the car isn’t built so that it “locks -in” the owner to a given battery pack size. Battery pack size should be as flexible as the rest of the architecture and allow future add-ons as the battery costs come down and/or the driver’s needs go up.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:37 pm)I’m not going to get too excited about the Seattle Times article. We don’t know if those were the exact words spoke by Bob Lutz. And, given rest of the article, I have no confidence that he was quoted accurately.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:41 pm)It is nice to see that Lutz realized nuclear is the only option.
40k is a fair price.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:51 pm)While I too would be interested in nasaman’s response to canuck #229, it serves no useful purpose.
Canuck has yet to establish any creditability in this forum; nasaman achieved that long ago!
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:54 pm)DodgeThis, you must be new here. Welcome. Everyone here has already seen who-killed-the-electric-car and already discussed the EV1 to death.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:58 pm)#220 Statik:
Oh, now you did it. I’ve been dancing around this topic for some time! Oh, what the heck. Here’s my viewpoint. Note that I’m not an economist so I claim no well learned authority in any of this. I’m a semiconductor engineer. My job is to identify the connections between things most people think are unrelated and thereby design new and better circuits and methodologies when everyone else is stuck in the same old thinking, so this may well be some of that.
So, I’m afraid we’re headed for massive stagflation. I think it’s already begun, but it’s going to get much, much worse. And I think it’s going to be worse than in the 70′s, too.
So, what happened, then? Well, there’s so many things that go into making the “perfect storm” it’s hard to really separate them all out as to what their exact effects are, but look at these similarities:
70′s: massive war spending had been going on (Vietnam) for years and the government stepped in to keep inflation in check (Think Nixon’s price fixing and other manipulations) but there was excess money in the system and it had to go somewhere.
now: massive war spending has been going on for years and the government has been trying to keep inflation in check through monetary policy but there’s excess money in the system and it has to go somewhere.
70′s: massive energy inflation created artificially through opec market manipulations
now: massive energy inflation created artificially through trader manipulations, foreign government gas subsidies, etc.
Here’s where it gets different:
70′s: economy was actually relatively strong. Workers had capability to demand higher wages, so you had a cycle of inflation that wouldn’t stop until Volcker tightened the money supply so much that the economy went bust. That stopped inflation. Then massive Reagan government spending (funded by Japan and Germany, mostly) started the economy again. I like to think it’s kind of like defibriliation on the heart.
NOW: economy is very poor. Workers have no capability to demand higher wages. Therefore, no cycle of inflation. It will be a step function. However, the government has already spent all the worlds money this time around (either by wasting it on our housing bubble (France, Germany) or on Iraq) and it doesn’t look like even the Chinese have enough money necessary to resuscitate our economy this time. They may not need it, either.
We have built up huge manufacturing infrastructure in China. And unlike other countries where we did so (Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, etc.) we have actually given them the companies, outright (you can’t own a company in China; at best, you can have a partnership where they have the majority) that coupled with their massive population and vast resources and they are very, very close to jump starting their own massive economic engine that will far surpass ours. Our (I’ll say it. at least fiscally, anyway) corrupt government has abused our economic heart so much these last 8 years, I don’t know if it’s even possible to recover.
So, that’s part of the reason I talk about things like electric cars and solar panels as inflation insurance. If our economy degrades, these types of investments may very well keep your costs stable in the face of truly massive inflation. $8 gas? Phbbbt. Try $20 gas on your budget and see how that fits. I remember when gas was 25 CENTS and jumped to the laughably unthinkable cost of over a dollar (if you could even GET gas)! Nobody even had PUMPS that could measure out a dollar a gallon gas! And if you’d asked people before we invaded Iraq when gas was still about a buck that it would be $4 in a few years they’d have laughed at you as well.
Well, you’re all going to laugh at me for saying $20 gas but we’ll likely see it in 15 years. And it won’t get there slowly. It’ll be a massive 4x jump caused artificially by some power or other just as it was the last few times (actually there was a third jump in the 90′s around the gulf war but it was much smaller and faded).
Don’t believe me about the price jumps? Take a lesson from history:
http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
Oh, and you may wonder why the price won’t fall down to $1 a gallon after the manipulations are over. Well, it will fall, but it won’t fall that far because the world demand is so much higher. We are using things like tar sands to meet demand and the cost of extraction for those will set a minimum oil price somewhere around 60-70/bbl. So, we’ll probably get back to ~$3 gasoline just in time for the Volt and to lull us all into another decade of a false sense of security on energy.
God help us all.
Jun 19th, 2008 (2:58 pm)We all have a car in mind that we want; something like the Volt, but cheaper. We won’t get that anytime soon…from GM. Maybe we should switch our focus from GM-Volt to something else. Who is the next best bet to get us our car? Maybe we should take our buzz over there. Our voice, and allegiances might spur another maker to provide us the car we want.
Jun 19th, 2008 (3:10 pm)Estero,
I couldn’t care less about anybody’s credibility here. Whatever.
Go to a store and locate some power tools that use A123 cells. There are several on the market by now.
Then check prices and how many cells are inside. Do your own math.
I presented the facts of one type of A123 costs. Feel free to check VPX prices online. Takes no time. Based on power tool pack prices using A123 cells I showed that $3.5 claims is ridiculous.
This is based on facts and not my “credibility”. I am not asking you to trust me, but do your own math.
Jun 19th, 2008 (3:18 pm)#23
“There are PLENTY of semi-rich greens who will buy the first volts at expensive break-even prices. To think you could make a new car battery priced affordably for the masses right out of the gate is ridiculous from every point of view.”
*** *** ****
This is exactly the point. I’ve said it before, let the “semi-rich Greenies” pay what they will….$50K $60K after all we’re only talking about 10K copies. At $50K GM would have some profit and would be able to make it affordable the second year out. Just like any other new technology.
Jun 19th, 2008 (3:18 pm)The price is UP…The price is down…up/down/up/down…Bah!
We’ll see what the market has room for in 2010 should TurmOIL hit $200 – $300 a barrell…people will beg for electric…
But not at $40,000+ for a ‘around-towner’ type of car.
Don’t try to break even by selling 100,000 units at $40,000…how about 250,000 units at $30,000?
Jun 19th, 2008 (3:30 pm)BTW, I own 2 Hondas and 1 Mazda, but never had any GMs.
I am not defending GM, but dislike such ignorant statements that are not even close to reality.
The car does cost a lot for a very good reason. These new Lithium cells are in a *VERY* high demand for many things besides cars. Until their production increases a great deal their prices will remain high and there is nothing GM can do about that today.
Jun 19th, 2008 (3:40 pm)For those who constantly cry that our attempt to save Iraq is costing too much….tax-payer funded healthcare makes the cost of the Iraq conflict look like pocket change – in rubles….
As an example: A small excerpt taken from an article in Healthday Reporter, by Steven Reinberg, dated Feb 26, 2008 :
This year, Medicaid spending is projected to grow 6.8 percent to $361.2 billion (in one year, almost matching cost of entire Iraq war reported at $497B). Over the next 10 years, the program is expected to grow an average of 7.9 percent each year, reaching $717.3 billion or 16.8 percent of health spending by 2017, according to the report.
And that’s just the tip of the bad-news iceberg.
The costs of our anti-terrorism / national security efforts pale in comparison to the continually rising cost of healthcare….
Learn more at http://www.nchc.org
Jun 19th, 2008 (3:47 pm)There are too many loony views on this thread and it is hurting the overall quality of it. It would not surprise me if GM competitors are doing some of it. Some of the stuff is so so ridicules. Anyhow, sometime it provides me with funny entertainment. If GM looks at this stuff, I sure it provides them with entertainment as well.
Jun 19th, 2008 (3:55 pm)Well…if there were not many of these “loony’ people think of all the $19.99 products that wouldn’t sell at 3:00am (LOL)
Jun 19th, 2008 (3:58 pm)#267 Joe:
Aww, we just do this so Lyle will start a new topic.
Jun 19th, 2008 (3:58 pm)Chris2
You are a little off topic.
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:01 pm)If you look at what we spent (and are still spending) on the Iraq war (which was all about oil), we could have bought everyone a VOLT car, and recycled all the idiotic SUV’s in the country and built new PHEVs with the scrap metal!
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:03 pm)$35K after a tax credit would be fine with me. I’m again counting on this not becoming a CHEVY COVOLT. Let the Cobalt go it’s own way.
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:06 pm)As Mr. Lutz stated, Nuclear is a great option. Very clean, plentiful supply of energy. Nuclear consolidates uranium already existing in the environment, and solidifies the U-cake into a small container, removing the count from the air and soil. That’s where it stays, accidents aside. Coal, oil, gas – CO2 pollution goes straight into the air we all breathe.
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:08 pm)Jimbo, as a retired US Air Force military veteran, I suggest you are correct. At another extreme, everyone in America could have had free gas paid for by the government for 10 years. Let’s invest here at home instead.
CHEVY VOLT: American-made, American-FUELED.
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:08 pm)For instance,
“Telsa Roadster uses 6800 li-ions”
http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/showthread.php?t=200262
Considering that a laptop usually uses about 10-20 cells, this represents a jump of 340x more cells. In other words, a single car needs as many cells as about 340 laptops!!!!!
That is heck of a production ramp up to ask from any industry. Thus at the moment we have low supply vs high demand = high prices
Simple.
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:13 pm)Chris2 meanders his point, which does suggest the staggering burden of military costs on doing not much more than protecting the Oil Highway for sheikdoms. Try a deployment over there and see what you think is really going on. Bush and Cheney are both oil men. The Chevrolet Volt is the most patriotic American adventure leading to change the main industry draining this limited world resource – the automobile.
CHEVY VOLT: American-made, American-FUELED. Get us off the addiction line to the Middle-East. Our brave gals and lads will simply have to keep going back otherwise, to fight against ever more heavily financed enemies of our nation. Sadly, financed by us every day at the pump.
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:24 pm)Canuck #250 says, “There is a shortage of gasoline. In North America it is manifested via increasing prices. In Asia and China in particular many gas stations go dry. Eventually our own stations will go dry. So think again what price is too high.”
Canuck, I appreciate your view point. I am very disgusted with the ways things are going in the USA. This war, government waste, high oil prices for cars and for home heating oil. But I do not see any shortage of gas anywhere in North America, nor have I heard of any. I was a kid back in the 1970′s when there was a shortage and gas lines were very long. I honestly don’t see that happening any time soon. And if it does, I will hopefully be able to telecommute.
You are correct when you say the game as already changed. But I was referring to automobile transportation and the electrification of the car. In my opinion, all existing hybrids are made backwards (parallel). The Volt, again in my opinion, is built correctly. However, if we are to achieve the electrification of the car, it must be priced for the masses.
Grizzly is correct. Most of us are not going to get the first year model. That is probably a good thing.
But it could also be bad. If GM sees that they can sell the Volt at a premium, they will have no incentive to lower the price.
Canuck, IMO, the price MUST come down in order for change to occur. Change is defined as: Electrification of the car. The Volt way.
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:28 pm)40 G For a Volt… Ok.. Just show me the car…. and when can I pick it up..
FYI.. I have been replacing my daily driver cars every 2.5 – 4 years for the last 20 years… I have had imports (Mazda, “Datsun”, Hyundai) and American cars (Dodge, Ford and GM). They all have their flaws. some were cheaper to maintain than others. I drive anywhere from 150 – 300 KMS almost every day..
I am looking forward to the Volt in mid 2011 as my “daily driver” will be worn out by that time and I am hanging onto it for an extra year just to get the Volt.. It’s an 07 MAXX and it has been exceptional so far.. 41000 KMS in 11 Months.
If GM Came out with the MAXX with the Volt drive train.. I would snap one up in a minute..
Come on GM… Let’s get the car out there… At the very least… let us have a look at the final production prototype….
Ray
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:30 pm)#266 Chris2
I’m not even going to go that far off topic….war vs medicaid? Now that would be a stretch for relevance here.
#267 Joe
“There are too many loony views on this thread and it is hurting the overall quality of it.”
Wonder what got you started on that thought, lol. Then you go and add this, “It would not surprise me if GM competitors are doing some of it.” — irony?
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:37 pm)I think Lutz is playing a game right now with competitors and supporters alike. Statements like this are designed to confuse the issues and harden one’s opinions, not change them. One thing’s for sure, they are keeping us worked up. My guess is that’s the goal.
This thread is a waste of time.
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:40 pm)At $40K – I’ll just keep my Ford Explorer and buy $5.00 gas. I can afford it if I don’t spend $40K trying to save money. I can buy lots of 5 or 6 dollar gas for that kind of money. While gas may get expensive; I don’t see it being in short supply for the next few years. This way, I can get my money’s worth from my 2007 Explorer that I like anyway. I realize that owning a Volt is partially about making a statement but I don’t think I can afford to make this one.
GM may price themselves out of business with this car – it’s a shame because someone else will build it cheaper.
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:46 pm)#260 DaveP (and Jean-Charles)
Couple good points of yours I take to heart:
“70’s: economy was actually relatively strong. Workers had capability to demand higher wages, so you had a cycle of inflation that wouldn’t stop until Volcker tightened the money supply so much that the economy went bust. That stopped inflation”
2008: “We have built up huge manufacturing infrastructure in China (et al)” … “they are very, very close to jump starting their own massive economic engine that will far surpass ours …Our… government has abused our economic heart so much these last 8 years, I don’t know if it’s even possible to recover”
When we give away our raw materials, manufacturing production and job out our intellectual jobs on the top as well, we become more and more reliant on other countries to bring us the raw goods we need and our demand eventually outstrips would we could possible accomplish ourselves…this is happening now in the US.
To see a extreme example of this…and what I fear is in store for continental US, check this CNN Money article on the “Hawaii Phenominum”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/19/news/economy/Lawrence_Hawaii_inflation/index.htm?postversion=2008061916
Hawaii’s residents have only one choice: “You grow your own food. You may not have noticed, we can grown our own food in Hawaii. So, some shoppers have adapted on their own. Corrine Tantog has five kids to feed, but she recently started buying only what’s in season…going without luxuries such as ice cream, which costs about $7.60 per gallon. But when a box of cereal can cost nearly $8, and $7.19 only buys one pack of Kraft American cheese slices, saving money is easier said than done”
The poor are now forced to grow their own food? Thats happening in America…right now.
Jun 19th, 2008 (4:59 pm)If gas hits $5-$7 per gallon, then the value proposition on a $40k volt will still be pretty compelling.
And that’s for the first year.. I guarantee if they start out at $40k they’ll be under $35 within a couple years
Jun 19th, 2008 (5:00 pm)“According to my estimates, gas would have to rise to over $7.20/gal and electricity prices would have to remain unchanged for the next two years in order for the Volt to just break even with the price and lifetime energy costs of a normal fuel-efficient gas car”
Core inflation is running at 6-7% or more.
Where I am gas is C$1.35 a litre, > $5.00 a gallon.
$7.20 gas is C$1.90 a litre. Not a huge leap from today.
At 250/bbl., which is the forecast some are giving for 2010, gas would cost $2.50 a litre or $10.00 a gallon. Let’s use that as an average over 10 years, as given demand growth it is realistic or even conservative.
Off-peak electricity is $0.05 per kwh a charge would cost $0.80 per charge. My current car needs 8 litres of gas to go 100 km at best. At $2.50 a litre that costs $10.00 or 0.10 per km, 0.16 per mile. 100km of electric charge would cost $1.25 or 0.0125 per km, 0.02 per mile.
My commute is just over 16 miles per day and weekend drives are within that limit, plus some go-getting. About 40 miles per day 6 days a week.
240 miles x 52 weeks = 12500 miles a year. I would hardly ever use gasoline except for long trips.
So in a $2.50/litre world, common in Europe, gas would cost me $1250 per year, and electricity would cost me $250 per year, a $1000 difference.
$10,000 over ten years. Add tax credits and it starts to be cheaper.
Jun 19th, 2008 (5:10 pm)Don’t know if this is of any value, but it is Volt related.
Of the 60+ odd plants, the ‘Volt’ plant, comes in at #5 for most workers taking, ‘the package’
Detroit/Hamtramck, Mich., Assembly: 619
Jun 19th, 2008 (5:19 pm)Hmm… $40000.00 bucks @5%/yr= $2000.00.
Gas @ $10.00/gal= 200 gal.
Paid for 1990 Subaru Legacy Wagon @ 80M.P.H.= 27.5 MPG.
200 gal x 27.5 MPG= 5500 miles @ 80 MPH per year @ $10.00 per gal forever!
220 workdays per year @ 25 miles round trip = 5500 miles.
What are we talking about here?!?!
Jun 19th, 2008 (5:19 pm)282: Statik:
America running out of food spells very very bad news for the rest of the planet, including China, since the US is one of the very few net food exporters on the globe, fortunately it is unlikely to happen. Hawaii is an outlier because so much has to be shipped out there food wise. Gas prices will certainly affect pricing but that just makes things even more profitable for local growers and you will eventually have a price equilibrium. (sucks for those areas of the countries who drove their farmers out though…wouldn’t want to live in a big city in a couple years) Americans will be forced to eat in season and canned vegetables because most of the price increases will be in distribution as the farmers I know have already started making their own biodiesel.
I know locally (I live in one of the few manufacturing bases left in the US) those who have outsourced production have been really really burned during this credit crunch by their “friends” in China and are even now shopping around to repurchase the machine tools they sold off or dusting off the ones they kept around.
The Chinese economic engine, indeed the world’s economic engine, runs on one thing: Cheap Energy and Oil. China’s economy has as much chance of weathering gas shortages and high oil prices as the US does, in fact, they just increased the price (they have price controls and heavily subsidize their gas, with our money naturally) so they are feeling the strain as much as we are.
Jun 19th, 2008 (5:24 pm)Far too long before production to get too fussed up. On to the next thread.
Be well,
Tag
Jun 19th, 2008 (5:31 pm)#286 Michael S
I also am Canadian and there is a couple things slightly off with your calculations.
It’s not really “off-peak” what you are in is ‘the winter block,’ it is actually .05cents all the time, so thats a plus.
Unfortunately, you failed to mention that Canadian Hydro is not a ‘base-rate/pay’ system…there is ‘added expenses’ attached to your rate….meaning that if you check your bill it will i say something like this (These figures taken from gov’t PUC example billing statement online):
Usage 555@ .05 = 27.75
Delivery 19.27
Regulatory Charges 3.67
Debt Retirement Charges 3.71
GST 2.72
Total Charges $57.11
Thats over 100 percent in fees, and it makes the rate 10.3 cents
The second part, “Where I am gas is C$1.35 a litre, > $5.00 a gallon.
$7.20 gas is C$1.90 a litre. Not a huge leap from today.
At 250/bbl., which is the forecast some are giving for 2010, gas would cost $2.50 a litre ”
Actually no. $250 dollar oil represents a 85 percent increase over the average cost ($135) this month for oil. Our oil has not gone up 400 percent in the time oil has gone from $35/barrel…it has double.
The reason for this is simple, we have a flat tax on our oil inside the number. A provincial flat rate of aprox. 15 cents and a flat 10 cent federal tax. This tax, coupled with our strengthening dollar insulated us from the same percentage change the US has felt (actually, the gov’t made us feel the pain many years earlier…and we have already adjusted to it).
So inside you $1.35 is .25 flat tax, so the non tax compenent is only $1.05…meaning on a jump to $250 (or 85 percent), the non tax portion would go to $1.91+.25 or $2.16 litre. There is also the refining cost which has been shrinking in relation to the value of crude (it’s about 13.5 percent of the cost today). If you strip out all the various levels of production, you will find (and according to gov’t mandated fiscal exposure) that the ‘core cost of crude’ is only 50 percent of the cost you see at the pump.
Handy gov’t GIF that explains it much better than myself:
http://www.fin.gc.ca/images/tax_bulletin/gas_tax_2e.gif
All you non-Canadians enjoy reading that? I thought so.
Jun 19th, 2008 (5:38 pm)Lutz is such a jackazz..GM needs to muzzle this clown!
By the end of the year he will announce the volt will be sold at $50,000…
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:01 pm)Under $30. No wait, $35. No, actually, $40. Should be $30. $40.
What a farce.
Does anyone at GM know what the hell is going on? No wonder they’re losing money and marketshare.
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:01 pm)#292 Crows
I’ll wager price/ribbon cutting is at the Detroit Auto Show…Toyota has already announced’ the big Prius debut is there’
I usually get down to the Cobo center every year. Should be a great show this year. Lots of ‘actual’ green cars with be debuting there, less of the ‘mythical unicorn’ ones we have seen in the past.
Maybe Lyle should start getting ready for Volt get together 2.0? I missed the first one…and therefore the opportunity for many of you to punch me in the face.
(=
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:06 pm)Lets do some math and explain why 40,000 will FAIL
40 mile charge per day, 365 days a year, 14,600 miles on electric power only. If you switched from a 25 mpg car to a volt. You would have saved 2365 dollars in gas for one year. I saw an equation on the cost to run the volt on electricity in an article. It was 3.5 cents per mile on national electricity price averages. With that many electric miles you will spend 511 dollars. So, over the course of 1 year you save 1854$.
Now lets use these figures and apply it to choosing between a prius or a volt. The prius costing 21,500$ verses the 40 thousand dollar volt. 18,500 dollar difference between the 2 vehicles. The prius gets 46mpg avg. New versions will get more but for this example i’m sticking with current facts.
At 46 mpg driving 14,600 miles a year at 4.05 dollar gas the prius will cost around 1285 to operate each year. 1285 – 511 = 774 meaning you would save 774 dollars a year with the volt.
At a price difference of 18,500 dollars you would have to drive the volt for 23 years to make up the difference in price.
So, I do not believe there are many people as excited as I was about the volt. I have researched and thought of the possibilities. I have looked at the economy and saw the direction it’s heading and it’s not good. We needed a hero. We needed something that could sever the dependence on other nations oil….nations that for the most part hate us…….I thought the volt was going to be the answer. It and the line of cars based on the volts idea would switch the direction of the winds……but at 40k the volt will do nothing but die.
I don’t understand a lot of things about the volt…like why would it cost so much? They can produce a small compact car for 11k yet putting a battery pack in it jumps the price to 40k ??
I don’t understand why the tesla roadster can obtain 200 miles on a battery charge yet the volt is having to sqeeze 40?? Why people call it new technology when the electric motor and battery have been around for 100 years.
I have worked at the same place for going on 8 years, It has always been a place full of fun and enjoyment to work there. This year was the first time since it’s creation that lay offs were handed out. The only reason in the world for these lay offs stems from the US dependency on foreign oil and the greed the fuels the rising prices. I have been researching, digging, and hoping that i’d find someone with some power trying to change this. I thought I had found it in GM with the volt. A car that will change the world if priced to at a rate people can afford. I suppose that dream died today.
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:26 pm)268 Chris2
What’s this, name the biggest special interest pig at the government dole tax dollar trough? Is it cabalistic Big Oil? No, no, it’s the military/industrial complex. Au contraire mon ami, it’s the insurance company/hospital/AMA health care hegemony.
Bah. Guess which economic class is disappearing hand over fist?
Flag wrapped warheads give me the red arse.
Meanwhile back to the regularly scheduled support group bloodletting…
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:30 pm)This is an unfortunate development.
Unless the price can come back down to $30k, subsidies or not, I’ll be looking elsewhere. If GM won’t make a 40+ mile AER E-REV for under $30k, someone else will.
Right now I’ve got my eyes on Aptera.
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:47 pm)Stay cool all. Prices are set by the marketplace, not as cost plus markup, and GM will conform. In the first year GM has said, all along, that only a small number will be made, probably because of a limited supply of batteries and a desire to see what goes wrong in the first group. In the first year, demand will be high, so price will be high.
That is ok, as it will encourage GM to make more Volt40s and more EREVs in general. In fact, we know from a couple of topics back that Posawatz at GM already is talking about a Volt20 that costs half as much. Likely that one will be available in higher volumes, too, and the price likely will be around $25K. So most of us will not get one of the few made in the first year, but things are likely to get much better for us shortly thereafter.
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:48 pm)DaveP (#262):
“So, that’s part of the reason I talk about things like electric cars and solar panels as inflation insurance. If our economy degrades, these types of investments may very well keep your costs stable in the face of truly massive inflation. $8 gas? Phbbbt. Try $20 gas on your budget and see how that fits.”
I can follow much of your analysis, but when you get to this paragraph, it begins to remind me of another ’80s – ’90s phenomenon: “Survivalism.” Most recently seen during the Y2K hysteria, these were people preparing to ‘disconnect’ from the soon-to-collapse infrastructure of civilization. Stored food and gas were usually accompanied by guns. If you think this is a far-fetched comparison, consider:
In a $20-a-gallon-if-you-can-get-it world, who is bringing food to within 20 miles of the rooftop solar panels on your home? Clothes? Other necessities? Fuel costs that high or higher will result in massive inflation as a best case. As a worst case, it’s likely to cause severe shortages, if not widespread starvation; and the breakdown of law and order.
If you live anywhere near a city, where will you drive your Volt under these circumstances, where no one will:
1) do anything in the world to steal it, including kill the driver,
2) force you to give rides,
3) destroy it out of greed and resentment — ?
That’s not to say ‘live like the grasshopper now, while the sun is warm,’ but planning for hypothetical bad times has to be balanced against what the more likely future holds. Or, to put it another way, have you finished drinking all that Y2K bottled water, yet?
Insurance is one thing, and I like your ideas; I just can’t afford them without going broke, which I could only justify doing if I thought a worst-case scenario was imminent. If you have the means to do the things you’ve outlined, and are comfortable with your decisions even in the unlikely case of dropping energy costs, fine.
All I’m saying is, it can be easy for “insurance” to cross over into an emotional investment in disaster. I saw people do it (or at least plan it) in the aftermath of the ’70s.
Jun 19th, 2008 (6:58 pm)Statik #274
“To see a extreme example of this…and what I fear is in store for continental US, check this CNN Money article on the “Hawaii Phenominum”
*** *** ***
Statik, Hawaii has ALWAYS been an extremely expensive place to live and many poor people amongst the population. This article could have been written at any period since statehood. Hawaii has always had its own unique problems and economy and they are in no way indicative of the country as a whole and never have been.
Rashiid #279
“But it could also be bad. If GM sees that they can sell the Volt at a premium, they will have no incentive to lower the price.”
*** *** **
For the first 10K you may be correct. Demand will be very high and unfortunately that small group with money and influence to get one probably won’t care what the car costs. As I’ve said, if that helps GM recoup to make the second year’s 100K+ offering of vehicles more affordable as a of a car for the masses, so be it. Remember, this car could fail, and in year 2 there may very well be competitors.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:10 pm)Well I’m going to gamble on the Volt at $40k and those that don’t like the price can stay with their buggy whip mentality and the Prius.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:12 pm)Grizzly, #300, says, “Remember, this car could fail, and in year 2 there may very well be competitors.”
Grizzly, sometimes I think the only thing that will help the masses are the competitors. If GM keeps the price up, people will turn elsewhere.
I won’t get any of the first 10K, but I sure hope you are right and GM lowers the price on the next 100K.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:13 pm)Ed M # 301. Thank you for your kind words towards the people that can’t afford $40K on a car. Unfortunately, some people have problems putting food on the table and paying their mortgage.
There is no need to put those people down.
Jun 19th, 2008 (7:39 pm)Rashiid #302
This is exactly what I’m saying. Competitors are good and maybe I wasn’t clear, but they are almost a guarantee that GM won’t be able to maintain the price of the initial 10K cars in the following years.
And Ed M is going to do us all a favor. If the initial price is a lofty $40K and he can get his hands on one, he’ll be helping us get ours the next year at a more reasonable price, along with the competitors.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:31 pm)#300 Grizzly,
You are right, Hawaii has always been a dependant state. They have always had higher pricing. However, the ‘poor’ and ‘middle class there are now being pushed to the preverbial edge.
“Hawaii has always had its own unique problems and economy and they are in no way indicative of the country as a whole and never have been.”
Yes, it DID have very unique problems, and that statement was true 20 years ago. (It still has some unique problems that will always make it a more susceptible, than the overall union).
However, problem number one has always been, it consumes much more in raw materials and manufactured materials than it could ever hope to put out itself. This is the exact same situation continental United States now finds itself deeper and deeper into.
It has come to the forefront much quicker than anticipated, catching most off guard, because of the extreme devaluing of the dollar over a unprecedented short term.
Example:
1998: US sells Canada $10,000 (USD) worth of American made silicon chips, Canada ponys up $16,000 (Canadian dollars) to pay for it.
Canada sells the US 300 gallons of oil to you on the other side of the equation, you give us $10,000 (USD)
NET RESULT: Balance
2008: US sells Canada $10,000 (USD) worth of silicon chips, Canada ponys up $10,000 (Canadian dollars). (Good for us). Of that $10,000, because it is made in China now, China gets a big chunk of it.
Canada now sells the US 350 gallons of oil to you on the other side of the balance, because you need more and we got more. Only now you have to give us $131 for it or $45,850
NET RESULT: -$35,000
This is Hawaii’s problem, this is now America’s problem.
Explain to me if you will how America until the direction it is going can ever hope to achieve equillibrium with a supplier nation?
I won’t even go into the ‘other factors’ besides increasing unsustainable demand that is stressing the dollar out, like national debt, medicaid, underfunded pensions (how are you planning to pay your elderly in 50 years?) or war.
Jun 19th, 2008 (8:47 pm)RE Hawaii, Statik said:
“However, problem number one has always been, it consumes much more in raw materials and manufactured materials than it could ever hope to put out itself. This is the exact same situation continental United States now finds itself deeper and deeper into.”
Just curious, but which of the European countries export more than they consume?
PS What’s the date for the Detroit Show? I imagine there will be people sleeping in line to meet you (g)
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:03 pm)307th!
$40k times 10k is $400M. I thought GM put more than $400M into the Volt. If so, how is $40k the break even price? If GM put a billion dollars into the Volt and they make only 10k Volts, then the break even price is $100k.
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:31 pm)There really is no such thing as a break even price when it comes to these things unless you plan on closing GM’s doors. How long a period of time does one consider when trying to recoup cost that will you will no longer be burdened with? If the you decide to recoup all cost in one year then you can come up with a dollar figure but that figure is totally arbitrary if you plan on staying in business.
OK Statik there is your opening!
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:34 pm)ThombDbhomb,
You skipped the cost to build each Volt, I think.
Be well,
Tag
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:40 pm)Tag
Good Point. That would increase the cost (break even point) for a Volt. So, why is $40k break even?
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:42 pm)#308 omegaman66
I agree. Does Lutz? He said there was a break even point. Perhaps we should get him to itemize a little more to support his “break even” analysis.
Jun 19th, 2008 (9:53 pm)ThombDbhomb,
LOL, Yeah I’d just bet that Bob would sit right down and get that out to us…
Again, it’s EARLY, contracts haven;t even been inked. He’s floating trial ballons and giggling.
JMO,
Tag
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:30 pm)Tagamet
Tim Russert would have pressed Lutz to elaborate.
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:35 pm)Lutz still can’t provide information that no one knows.
Tag
Jun 19th, 2008 (10:46 pm)Luyz still can’t provide information that no one knows.
Tag
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:13 pm)How many more of these initial cost topics are we going to have? How many have we had already?
Seems to me there would be some breaking vehicle development or design info GM could leak that would make for a more interesting topic.
Personally, since mule testing is going to go on for some time, I wish GM would give us a better peak at the interior and dash LCD and talk about plans/features/functions for this.
Jun 19th, 2008 (11:21 pm)Geez have the speculators gotten a hold on this like the oil they are messing with. Let’s drive up the price of both, so the environment and mankind does not benefit. My Civic Hybrid looks better all the time and gets an honest 52 miles per gallon. Way to go GM, you are going to blow it again. Hey let’s destroy another electric!!!
Jun 20th, 2008 (2:20 am)Mr, Lutz,
I am assuming that you went to school right? Ever heard of the fuller curve? If you have I don’t think you have grasped the concept. GM could make money on this product, the demand is there. They have to make the Volt so that they sell enough to meet production cost and maybe a small (I mean extremely small Mr. Lutz, smaller than the number you are thinking of right now.) If the car was $12,000 I would buy one. The reason is I would be able to afford it because I could transfer the money I spend on gas and pay it off. Do you understand now how GM can make a profit? It’s not rocket science. Oh, and if you don’t understand still feel free to email me and give me a job. I can solve all of your problems with GM. Promise. I bet my life on it.
Jun 20th, 2008 (6:26 am)#308 Omega
“OK Statik there is your opening!”
I don’t walk through doors, I kick them down. I kidd, I kidd. I think we gone around the world on this thread, time for it to go “night-night” I think.
#306 Tag
“PS What’s the date for the Detroit Show? I imagine there will be people sleeping in line to meet you (g)”
Jan 11th – Jan 29th (11th, 12th, 13th are press days. The black tie/charity night is the Friday (16th))
PS) I don’t allow sleeping in my lines, I have ‘people’ with tasers to keep everyone ‘alert’
Jun 20th, 2008 (8:13 am)Statik, I was using approximations for a 10 year average.
$250bbl 2010 oil might well turn out to be $400bl 2020 oil as production declines but demand remains. I have a smart meter on my house now, waiting for tiered rates, the base nightime rate will fall in the 2.5c category, or 5-6c when all things are added up. While I state my fuel economy as 8l/100km it is in reality more like 9.5l/100km, almost all commuting and local go-getting.
The thing about electric cars that is not said is convenience: if you are not using the ice the need for oil changes and other service calls will be reduced, probably more than offset by the cost of servicing the glitches in the electrics. If that is solved, wow.
Oil changes and ICE maintenance are a pain in the ass.
In my case I fall into the perfect category for such a vehicle. The generator is what makes the choice practical and not a novelty.
In any case I do believe that people will want the Volt dressed up as a Saab or an Opel as at that price the Chevy badge will be considered downscale, the Corvette being the exception.
The Volt is a start, a hedge, a bet that $10 gas might happen.
If that bet is not in your DNA, fine.
Jun 20th, 2008 (8:28 am)40,000…..wow that’s the end of that..the chevy volt was a nice idea..now come on toyota or honda give me 60 miles to the gallon and a price around 25000…and i’ll take the extra 15000 i save and buy gas with it that’s a lot of gas for 15000 even if it is 6 bucks a gallon…or even 8 bucks….wow the segment they were aiming for they just shot right over them…the volt is dead…because the people who would really buy it can’t afford it…lol….bye volt…hello honda fit…lol…
Jun 20th, 2008 (9:08 am)Over 300 posts before I get to it, this sites getting out of control. LOL.
I wish I could buy one at $40 K but I can’t. So I will have to wait for V2 I guess. Wonder what the second hand prices for Version one will be?
Jun 20th, 2008 (9:16 am)Maybe Lutz is launching a very negative “factoid” right before they release a stunning looking production model. Save your breath Statik, you’ll say it’s to distract us prior to releasing a really ugly production model. but that would be like driving two nails in the coffin, so seems less likely (to me). Then again, I’m blinded by the white light of the Force…..
Tag
Jun 20th, 2008 (10:35 am)In the 2010-2012 time frame there will be a lot of choices. Toyota, Nissan, Chevrolet, Tesla, Fisker, all depending on your budget. A surprise would be a Chinese vendor shipping a $8000 car with a $12000 battery for $20,000.
If you recall the first Prius was an overpriced Echo.
Jun 20th, 2008 (10:53 am)What a lot of people may not realize is that the freakin’ gas prices right now are having a GENERAL inflationary effect on everything … from your cereal in the morning to the high strength steel that the Volt will probably have. Corporations have to pay all those little expenses just like us customers do … GM and Toyota both.
By 2010, the price of the latest and greatest Prius might be $32,000 or something … maybe a good bit more since they will have lithium ion batteries. Even a regular nickel metal hydride Prius might be going for $28-30K. These gas prices are going to erode a lot of people’s budgets. I hear that the corn prices alone are going to cause inflation for a lot of food products … from ketchup, to sodas, to meat. Sodas and ketchup have high fructose CORN syrup in it and livestock eat corn meal.
This is why people who CAN afford a Volt will be helping out their own budget by saving a lot on gas AND they’ll be doing their part to help out everyone else. When you see people drive around in a Volt, you ought to give them a thumbs up sign. The chicks that go to Earth Day ought to give Volt owners a hug.
There are clubs for Corvette owners, Mustang owners, Porsche owners, etc. I guess we could be called “Volt Nation” like Lyle’s forum in New York earlier this year … an army on a mission of DEMAND DESTRUCTION of the price of oil. I can visualize things like that in 2011 or 2012 especially if oil prices are still ridiculous.
The Volt will be good for the gas prices, general inflation AND the environment. Not much at first, but once the Volt and similar models hit a threshold say in 2015, OPEC and Big Oil will be wondering why they didn’t try harder to kill off the Volt before it took off in popularity. We all know that AIN’T gonna happen of course. Hybrids are already a force to be reckoned with. They’re here to stay.
Gasoline will have to compete with the price of electricity which should stay pretty low and be much more stable. No way can Big Oil and OPEC do that … especially as the price of the batteries go down and get more and more all electric miles. Not while the economies of China and India and the rest of the world keep growing. The world is going to electric cars. Big Oil better get used to the idea. Electric cars are just more efficient. The internal combustion engine will eventually go the way of the horse that used to be our transportation engine. Funny how we still use the term HORSEpower as a measure of an IC engine’s power.
Jun 20th, 2008 (6:20 pm)Well i figured as much that lutz did not want to loose any money he would just want to break even . I must admit though even 40 grand is a tad high but lets break it down . Technically you would be buying a car for around 32 thousand for the average person. The price of the car would come down this far because of the savings in gad maintaince and the expected tax rebate of 7200 dollars (im just saying it that it’s this low could be more ) . I personally have no problem with being a gm mule and possibly getting burned by being one of the early purchasers because, quite simply i am tired of seeing the gas prices soar the , middle east get rich and us Americans tighten our pocket , and for the simple fact that gm is trying to do something about it and for once its an AMERICAN COMPANY and they build everything here i will support them despite the upfront cost. Because when its all said and done i get a fabulous car , save the environment from a couple tons of co2 a year and on top of that get the most tax rebate because im an early adopter , This truly will be my first car
Lets calculate it shall we . I will be using the figure of 50,000 because when i order my volt i want it to have all the features , bells and whistles, and it coudl possibly come out that high .
Lets say on average the american drives 12,000 miles . We all know that 12,000 miles figure will not be all city miles and coudl not possibly be within the 40 mile electric range of the volt . So lets say 8000 miles of that 12 thousand mile is in the city and is within the 40 mile electric charge range
8000 lets divide this by a average sedan that gets 20 miles to the gallon in city driving all the time ( im being generous so that people don’t say i am exaggerating the savings from buying a volt)
8000/20=400 gallons of fuel 400 gallons of gasoline using 4 dollars as a base price ( yes im also being generous with the gas prices i live in nyc and our gas is around 4;190 = 1,600 dollars a year using generous mpg number and gas prices So at the worst this is how much you will save . Lets time that by 6 years (seeing as if you keep the car shorter than that your a dumby) 6 times 1,600 =9,600 in savings not to mention that 7,2000 dollar tax rebate . so all in all you save around 16,000. Now this is a very rough figures seeing as i do not know how to calculate the cost of charging the car up for all those years or the other 4,000 miles driven each year using gasoline. I cannot do those because there are simply to many variables . But you get my drift
So if my decked out volt cost 50,000 – 16,00 =34,000
Now if your average volt cost 40,00-16,00=24,000
So as you can see the volt is not that much more expense than the luxury sedan or normal car . But hey for those who want to wait by all means go ahead
Jun 20th, 2008 (8:58 pm)I guess is the cars will be hard to get for the first couple years…
GM will be making as many as they can.. but I’m sure it will depend on the suppliers how many will be made. I’m sure they could sell 100,000 if they sold them for $30K. Then you could get your rebate for $5K and use your GM card credit for another $3500… now your in the 100,000 per year range.
Jun 21st, 2008 (3:37 pm)Sounds fine to me. Look, I might not buy the first generation, but I didn’t buy the first iPhone either!
Let Mel Gibson and the lot buy up all the Volts in the first year and give the people a more fair price after the batteries become cheaper.
Jun 21st, 2008 (4:51 pm)SCAM!!!!!!
These are the SAME guys who made the EV1 which is on par with performance with this thing (minus the genset of course) and the EV1 used Lead acid batteries.
We need to force these guys to make decent affordable cars.
California forced them to do it and now the federal government needs to force them to do it.
Simply put – we need a law to mandate the production of EVs for every auto manufacturer that sells ICE vehicles in the US AND they need to be price competitive.
EVs should be CHEAPER to build than gas engines – only reason why they arent is because the batteries and the motors are not mass produced.
BTW – the Prius would have sold better if toyota did no cap the number exported to the US and allowed a EV mode as they did in Europe – yet another SCAM.
Bah – maybe Obama can fix this nightmare and kick GM in the backend.
Jun 21st, 2008 (4:57 pm)chris@328
Right after we take over control of Big Oil and the refineries.
Jun 21st, 2008 (5:27 pm)Tagamet@329
So that would be after peak oil I guess….oh wait we still got ethanol after that. =-P
Whatever – Tesla seems less interested now in making affordable EVs as well….They seem to be taking the same stance with the whitestar….Maybe Apple will come out with an EV – they seem to show some concern for what consumers want. =-D
Jun 21st, 2008 (11:07 pm)OK, more for me
I’ll take two please
Jun 21st, 2008 (11:11 pm)RV@331
Isn’t it an old rule that no one gets “seconds” until everyone has had “firsts”? (G)
Tag
Jun 22nd, 2008 (5:01 pm)$40,000.00 leave it up to the al’s of the world, you all keep buying over high priced electric cars! Gas prices will go down because less demand for gas, your electric bill will go up, then we can all hear you cry. You priced this car out of the averge person price range. It’s time to get rid dem and rep clean house. Drill for oil, build nuke power plants, working on fixing the problem. We can do this stop blaming everyone and fix the problem
Jun 22nd, 2008 (6:13 pm)bill@333
The scale of the problem is much bigger than that – we cant keep burning fossil fuels forever.
Nuke plants – sure I can go for that.
Drill for oil – yeah right so we can create more sinkholes, throw more co2 in the atmosphere and generally make more off a mess of things – no thanks.
Personally I hope the price of oil goes to $25 a gallon – maybe then there will be some real incentive to build more solar furnace power plants in the south an more wind, nuke and solar plants in the north – incentives for solar rooftiles to replace todays shingles etc….comon sense strategies to de-centralize todays complicated power grid.Its a easy problem to solve – people are just too damn lazy and greedy to implement it.
Jun 22nd, 2008 (10:01 pm)Chris@334,
$25 a gallon gas sounds like an excellent idea! You can send me the extra $21.50/gallon for each gallon you use. Sounds like a win/win to me. You get your $25/gallon gas and you don’t contribute as much to global warming. Oh, and then I also don’t have you dictating to me or anyone else. Win/win/win?
I repeat, IMHO we need to increase supply of oil to drive down prices (even TALKING about it gets the speculators out) and we need to do everytihing to develop alternatives. You seem to only want your half off the solution.
Be well,
Tag
Jun 22nd, 2008 (11:09 pm)tagamet@334
I think due to my sarcasm my point was lost – my bad.
My point is this – if we drive down oil prices the incentive to develop alternatives goes by the wayside – we saw this in the aftermath of the 70s oil “crunch”. Everyone forgets about EVs PHEVS and Hybrids and goes back to driving down the CAFE standards.
I dont want half the solution in reality – I want a bridge to get us from fossil fuels to clean technologies – and the Volt seems to be the perfect vehicle to get us there – I just dont believe it will see production if the price of oil drops significantly – history has shown us this already.
Dictating is not in my nature – but since the powers that be seem to have a stranglehold on the industry and silly patent laws prevent things like the ovionics NIMH large scale batteries from being produced y anyone except Cobasys who refuses to produce them – I think a “radical” move like the CARB intiiative on a federal level is warrented.
Mind you – Im not saying people should be forced to drive EVs or PHEVs – Im just saying we should have the option of purchasing them when there is obvious demand.
Now – since Cobasys is only taking large scale orders for their NIMH packs we go to LiON technologies and it looks like pioneers like a123systems is in danger of being in bed with Cobasys – I think the suppression of such technology should be avoided and a federal mandate seems to be the best (althougth radical and admittedly leftist) way to get to a point where the average american has a shot of making a informed choice of how the want to power their cars.
Jun 22nd, 2008 (11:21 pm)Chris@336
I appreciate your very candid reply. I agree that OPEC was able to undermine alternatives in the past by opening up the oil floodgates, BUT:
That was before 911, the Briton bombings, radical Muslums. Spain subway bombs, etc, etc. Before all of this, our short sighted slip back to gas guzzlers is understandable, but now too much has transpired for us to let our shot at oil independence for transportation slip away. Too many major mfg’s will be coming out with their versions of electron driven vehicles all around 2010-2011 (if not sooner). So we can agree to disagree on the draconian measures vs. America’s desire to be free of oil and all the radicalism it brings with it, but either way we’ll have options.
Be well,
Tag
Jun 23rd, 2008 (10:20 am)tagamet@337
Point taken – I disagree with your assessment that “this time things are different” because of 9/11 etc. People tend to be pretty self centered (me included – I want a EV NOW) and when gas is not hurting their pockets so much they will forget about these “alternatives” as a load of idealistic crap. As for the terrorists – that will be seen as it always has been – gee the oil producing nations are good people there are just these radicals making trouble…As for Global warming….it will be written off as pseudo science….again.
2010-2011 – sounds familiar – the car salesman I spoke with back in 1999 said EVs were only being sold in CA and that we would have them on the east coast by “2000-2002″.
9 years later….still no viable EV on the market – yes I could buy a “Xebra” EV which are actually kinda affordable but given their top speed and their silly looks I hardly count them as more than a NEV – If I had a farm the Xebra truck might be worth it….but I dont.
Draconian? Maybe….I think not though. Today we require companies that make cars to put catalytic converters in them to regulate air pollution. We force car manufacturers to meet stringent crash safety tests – we also force them to meet efficiency standards – how is forcing them to sell a minimum percentage (lets say 10%) of their vehicles to be ZEV or near ZEV vehicles draconian? It is simply regulating the industry in much the same way as emissions regulations.
Patent laws that allow a single company to suppress technology that could do a lot of good if put in the public domain are draconian in my book. For example….if Cobasys released this patent in a sense and said “hey anyone who wants to build these batteries can” then there just might be some companies willing to put together battery packs for EVs in standard configurations – suddenly the EV conversion cottage industry that seems to be developing would have a much more attractive service to sell and instead of people ponying up $15k or more to have a geo converted to electric with lead acid packs for their “around town” car (read limited range) they just might be paying the same money or maybe a little more to have a geo converted that goes 100+ miles per charge with batteries that dont need to be watered. Suddenly it makes more sense to convert….
Anyways – Thanks for talking about it – I appreciate your point of view. I hope your right about us having options in the future.
Take care
–Chris
Jun 23rd, 2008 (10:35 am)Chris@338
I guess we travel in different circles, but even the lib biased media puts the black hat on OPEC. I don’t see much forgiving going on, even if prices go down.
The mandates that you mention are all there as demanded, and the cost of them are all paid by US. So the govt cann mandate electric vehicles and the 100K things will be adopted by those that can afford them for their ego. The govt can’t mandate affordable vehicles.
RE “just raise the price of gas”, taken to it’s illogical conclusion is to just stop importing oil. I suspect that you were not around to sit in the lines for 10 gallons in the 70′s. I did, and the effect now would be even more devastating.
Bottom line is that 5 companies have announced releases. The market is working (I just threw that last part in to make you crazy (g))
Jun 23rd, 2008 (11:24 am)Tagamet@339
Well…the making me crazy part is working. (g)
The market *may* be working…..I remain unconvinced since Im not driving a sub $30K EV or PHEV.
Well hey – I do remember the gas lines of the 70s (ok – I was a kid but it made a big impression) As a humorous side-note my dad picked that summer to buy a used winnebago and took us from Mass to Florida for a vacation. I remember we had to take a few “rests” along the way in order to get the gas we needed but somehow he pulled it off. Crazy guy but in a good way.
So if you remember those fun-filled gas lines and the insane people filling up milk jugs with gasoline (it dont take long for gas to eat througth that plastic) then you must remember the citicar – that triangle shaped wave of the future in personal mobility.
Granted that was not the panacea that we needed at the time but it was a good idea which – had we kept going down that road – we would have avoided the mess we are in now. But we didnt…..why?
Simple – gas prices dropped and people forgot about all this “dependence on foreign oil” nonsense and the citicar became yet another “crackpot idea”.
Ok – the late 90s to the mid 2000s saw a more comprehensive effort with CARB but even then with the WTC being attacked prior to 911 (the underground bomb thing) and the airport blow up attempt being thwarted for new years eve in 2000 the White house STILL went up to bat with the car companies in court to force california to drop the whole idea of building a electric car infrastructure.
Sorry – this time we might even get a few PHEVs and EVs back on the road but if the price of oil drops…..the car companies will go back to crushing these things without some kind of protection from the government.
The car companies hate these things – I dont pretend to understand why but it seems obvious to me that they do.
The government dont have to mandate affordable vehicles really – they just have to mandate that a percentage of their cars be ZEVs.
Sooner or later greed will take over and one company will make an affordable EV – much the same way that one phone company broke ranks with the rest and partnered with Apple for the Iphone. Might sound trivial but the Phone companies are almost as bad as the oil companies or auto companies so it was a big risk for cingular.
I will concede that even without a mandate from the government if everyone stops buying the gas guzzlers the companies will get the idea (or go under) – but a mandate sure would help.
Jun 23rd, 2008 (11:48 am)Chris@339
As a Dad (twice) I can only imagine how many Rolaids your dad got “to the mile” on that trip (g).
It seems a bit of a disconect for you to be suggesting that govt should come to the rescue, when simulaneously, condemming them for their past actions.Believe it or not, BUSH, yes, George DubYuh spent more on alternatives for transportation than any of his predecesors (sp?).
You really don’t see any anti-arab sentiment that will linger IF they could lower prices again??? They are at peak production NOW. They don’t have the power to flood the market – too many developing countries demanding it. So in that sense, it’s a moot point.
I still think that we need to do EVERYTHING at this point. Especially work on a Smart-grid and more nuclear generation. The car part of the equation will happen in 2010. BTW, just today, McCain offered a 300 million dollar prize for the company that comes up with an affordable battery for transprotation.
Jun 23rd, 2008 (12:27 pm)Tagamet@341
Yeah – I still wonder how he managed it….
Yes – GW spent more but unless I am mistaken – and please correct me if I am – that was spent building the corn based Ethanol market which is a mistake of epic proportions for many reasons in my opinion.
I condemn the government for funding corn ethanol and for taking the California Air Resources Board to court to get them to drop their EV mandate.
These were bad policies under a bad administration in my opinion.
I see no disconnect – I am suggesting the government pass some WISE legislation which will put us on the road to real, permanent, clean solutions instead of half-baked middle of the road attempts to keep the economy going and disguising it as investing in clean technology.
I see about as much anti-arab sentiment if they lower prices that we saw in the 80s and 90s – people forget when their wallets are full and they are able to get back and forth to work and soccer games etc…without going into debt over it. After all – this terrorism has nothing to do with Arabs and everthing to do with terrorist groups.
I admire your optimism over the 2010 date – I hope your right.
regarding the 300 million…..I havent seen that one yet – checking google….
Hmmm…Ok well thats nice….but its kinda pointless.
300 million for developing a battery that offers 30% more energy than current technologies? LION batteries already can be applied to give “limitless” range when coupled with a generator….so why the heck is he doing that instead of offering the 300 million to the first company that actually makes a standardized LION battery module designed specifically for the car market with certain yearly production minimums? (a123systems would claim that pretty quick)
That would make more sense than an x-prize copy cat – no doubt this is more about his image than an interest in weaning us off of foreign oil…..I mean this is McCain we are talking about.
Jun 23rd, 2008 (6:22 pm)Lutz is just going to take it in the pants for the first few years and lose money on every model sold, just like Honda and Toyota did with their hybrids until they started showing profits.
That’s just the price that GM is going to have to pay for coming late into the high-fuel efficiency market.
Either that, or Lutz will have to find 10,000 to 110,000 suckers who will pay anything to get out from under their GM-built gas guzzling SUV’s.
Jun 24th, 2008 (3:28 pm)Think about the Volt at $40K with an additional $5 – 10K tax rebate as a car that gets the now re-designed and improved interiors and substantially improved cars GM is producing. For 10+ yrs, I would not even consider a GM, but I am very excited about telling my friends buying BMW 535′s, X3′s and Audi A6′s that I am waiting for a CHEVY VOLT!!!
Jun 26th, 2008 (8:50 am)At $40k, this car is out of range for its market, unless it is targeting only wealthy “greenies”, like Ed Begley Jr. Even with a $5k tax credit, its still out range. GM has not “hit a home run” with a car in a long time and has lost substantial market share as a result. GM could have a “home run” on its hand with the Volt, but it must price the Volt, without regard to tax credit, at $30k. After all, low middle incomers are not as interested in these big tax credits since often they do not get to fully utilize them (their incomes already get zeroed out from other credits and deductions). Unlerss GM can price the Volt at $30k, it will continue to eat the dust of its Japanese competitors.
Jun 26th, 2008 (9:35 am)John@347
Hey – Leave Ed out of it – Hes a good guy and is doing everything he can to promote green living. =-)
All other points – I totally agree.
Lets face it – these guys ALREADY (EV1) have all the knowledge they need to built this car with Lead Acid batteries and get a good 30 miles out of it – They should be looking at modular upgrades for the electronics and offering tiered pricing depending on the batteries you can afford today.
Personally I would buy the car with Lead Acid batteries for $20K and then upgrade it later when I could afford and/or market forces bring the price of Lion in range.
I still say its a scam and stall tactic.
Hell – if they just re-released the EV1 as it was in 2000 or whenever they upgraded to NiMH I would STILL buy it – even without the generator.
I hear him say stuff like “well theres still danger of fires” – give me a BREAK! All it takes is a battery charging circuit to ensure you dont over or under charge the batteries – if you want redundancy to completely eliminate risk of fire then give each battery its own charge limiter and add maybe $2 in cost per battery to the entire car.
Theres gotta be some electrical engineers on here who can back me up on this….anyone?
Jun 26th, 2008 (9:45 am)Chris
Theres gotta be some electrical engineers on here who can back me up on this….anyone?
Don’t hold your breath.
Jun 26th, 2008 (10:47 am)GM is run by a bunch of rich old fools that just don’t get it. Their cars are now and will always be crap until the old fools die off. They don’t make good cars for the masses and you are all suckers for thinking they will. If j6pk can afford it, it will fall apart.
Under 40,000….get real. How would the old fools be able to afford their 20 houses personal jets and bragging rights for the biggest boats..
Oh lets make it in china to save money. Funny how all thaat cost savings does not translate into price savings for the end user, or raises for what little workers are left in the US.
Screw GM buy foreign and shut GM down so a new US company can pick up the pieces.
Jun 26th, 2008 (9:12 pm)i would rather buy a GM volt for 40k as opposed to a foreign made car. We would help keep ungrateful americans in their jobs and keep ours too. most cars cost between 25k to 35k new anyway. the gas savings will compensate for the difference.
12k miles per year at 25mpg at $4 per gallon is 160 per month in gas.
so choose your poison
340 car pmt plus 160 in gas.after you pay car off you still have to pay 160 in gas per month.
or
500 per month for car 0 gas (or minimal) and when its paid off you have no fuel cost.
if gm produces 50k Volts they will all sell at 40k. Which is good. it will drastically reduce oil dependance. maybe then a US Marine can come home.
Buy American Everything. I refuse to buy anything made foreign, because i want to support the American economy and our futures. The quality of american made products is excellent. if everybody in the US bought things made in USA we would not have a poor economy right now. The people who discourage us from buying american dont intend on living here for long, or dont know any better.
we are paying the price for a global economy with no political safeguards on outsourcing. so trust me and buy american. im buying the Volt. or the ford/chrysler equivalent if any.
Jun 27th, 2008 (8:46 am)For $30K, I could buy a Prius and get the tax credit. For $35k, I could buy a BMW 325i, get looks and luxury, and still get 30 mpg. Where is the economic sense in spending $40k for a Volt?!? Come on GM – get smart! If the Volt is priced under $30k, it will fly off the line and put GM back at the top spot. At $40k, its an unaffordable experiment.
Jun 27th, 2008 (9:03 am)They really are doing the “Hydrogen thing” arent they?
IE promising this great new car that runs on perpetual motion and will be available in 2 years….and 2 years from now it will be available in aother 2 years (due to a technical glitch they could not have forseen)
Ok – last tank on my 1995 Escort I got 36MPG – This tank Im seeing 34 MPG so far and thats with the AC cranking most of the time – best tank is 39.5 MPG and thats ona car that has 125K miles on it (or so).
So…WTF? The new cars are doing about as good or a little better than cars made 13 years ago when gas was cheap?
Why did Honda cancel the Insight?
Why is Toyota limiting the number of Priuses it sells?
Why did Toyota give up on making Priuses here in america?
Why is GM constantly raising the bar on the price of this thing?
Where is the Tesla Whitestar that was promised in 2008?
Time for “Who killed the electric car II” me thinks…..
God I love the smell of a big oil conspiracy theory in the morning….smells like…..defeat. (g)
You know what I think….I think the car manufacturers are hedging their bets. If a democrat gets in the white house…AND that democrat actually does something about all this….then they will survive and have a car ready to sell.
If a republican gets in that supports big oil…..then they go back to buisiness as usual and cite the lack of demand for these cars.
Actually….Obama has been pushing ethanol a lot…..so who knows maybe we go from bad to worse….from burning the evil fossil fuels to burning the “good” alchohol fuels…..nevermind that ethanol has a higher water content – rots out your car faster due to that – and takes more energy to produce than it does to process Oil…..oh and energy density happens to be a lot less with ethanol…..so while you pay less per gallon you fill up more the end result being a net increase in the price of gas…..whatever.
At least when the north pole is free of ice this summer we can explore that region for more oil….
Jun 29th, 2008 (9:51 pm)GM needs to rethink the price. It looks like they are going with the same game plan as the Hybrid Tahoe. Look how well it is doing – not!
New type of car, new type of GM, new type of pricing.
Jul 24th, 2008 (9:17 pm)Speaking as an engineer, I think GM deserves a lot of credit for undertaking such an ambitious technical challenge as the Volt project, especially in the extremely compressed time frame they have established. GM’s stated goal is practical ownership: a car that anyone can drive anywhere with very little maintenance. This takes a lot of engineering and testing. The EV-1 was only available in very limited areas where it was always warm and didn’t rain much and never snowed. The Volt has to work in Chicago, among other places. Whereas the Volt will seat four persons in comfort, the Tesla is a tight two-seater (basically a Lotus Elise) that costs over $100,000 (that’s about 2 Corvettes) — and it has had it’s share of technical issues and delays. As far as the $40,000 initial cost, there are three variables in any project: specifications, schedule, and cost. If you want it to be good and you want to have it soon, it won’t be cheap. Unlike the Government, GM can’t print money when its revenue drops, so if you want GM to subsidize the cost, then go buy a GM car now to boost their current sales and trade it in on a Volt in 2010 or 2011.
Jul 27th, 2008 (10:15 pm)Jim 355
)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
“buy a GM car and trade it in on a Volt”
That made my day
Trade it in for what? For a cupholder?
Aug 5th, 2008 (10:27 am)40K is completely within most car buyer’s budgets. Let’s understand the true cost here. Electric vehicles cost between 1-1/2 and 2-/1/2 cents per mile to “drive” (as opposed to full operating cost). Whereas gasoline powered vehicles cost more like twenty cents. So over a hundred thousand miles, discounting vehicular maintenance, tires and battery costs which I expect GM will maintain for a fee, you’d save about $18,000. So the real cost is more like $22.000. Add in the reduced maintenance costs of NOT having a gas powered engine under the hood (electric motors don’t wear much – note that some have been runing elevators for many decades with very little maintenance) and you could easily offset battery replacement costs.
We pay for oil, tune ups, pumps, timing belt replacement, filters, mufflers, and tons of other junk that aren’t found on electric vehicles. And sure, they’ll be lots of other stuff to replace this which can fail, such as chargers, fans, coolers, brushes, and a much simpler but just as important transmission. But all-in-all, an electric vehicle can be a heck-of-a-lot more dependable and maintenance free when compared to the thundering gas guzzling junk on the road today.
Sep 14th, 2008 (11:01 am)It should be noted that there will still be a gasoline powered engine under the hood used to power the battery charger on trips over 40 miles for the Volt, so normal engine maintenance will be required.
Sep 16th, 2008 (8:11 pm)I have read over 100 comments regarding today’s unrevealing of the Volt… A LOT of people will not buy the car because of:
40% of the 100+ comments I read mentioned $40k being too high, and they’d spend $20-30k for it.
25% said they can’t believe how cool the concept was, and how LAME and copy-cattish of GM to use a lame techno car design.
I don’t really care either way, because I could never afford it anyways.
Jan 25th, 2009 (9:06 am)I’ll never buy American again, this 40K goes to support overpriced union contracts and upper mng packages. How can you be the #1 auto manufacturer and go broke? Never again…..
Mar 11th, 2009 (10:55 am)[...] with one spectacular warranty…like about 35 years on the batteries. Speaking of break even… Lutz: $40,000 is Breakeven Price for the Chevy Volt and First Generation Will Not Make Money For GM … [...]
Apr 9th, 2009 (9:59 pm)I thought we were in a recession/depression. Were did you ppl come up with that obsurd price.
For GM’s sake, I hope that Lut’s ppl can come up with better pricing. Were do ya’ll get off. Its that kind of thinking that is going put GM in a coma and dead soon there after. You have got to be kidding me ppl wake REALITY CHECK!!!! Here is a solution to GMs problems. Sell the Volt for under $25.000 and then almost every American family can own one. Your profit will be volume, And since there are millions of pple looking for a solution to high gas prices most everyone will buy. Then gradually raise prices on supply and demand principle. With the Feds backing GM you will have enough capital until you turn a healthy profit.
And fire the execs that can’t come up with this simple plan i just layed out.
Peace out from Houston w/ Luv.