Who Will Buy a Chevy Volt?

June 17th, 2008 | Posted in: marketing

Now that GM has approved production of the Chevy Volt, they can begin to focus on what to us may seem obvious. Who will buy the Chevy Volt?

Clearly, I, and the nearly 30,000 people on our waitlist already hope to do so, assuming it is within our means. But since around 15 million new cars are sold per year in the U.S., aside from the quantity actually produced, how many could they sell?

Price point is important, but should we really expect GM to lose money on them especially when times are as hard as they are?

In a recent statement, GM North America president Troy Clarke admitted GM is placing a substantial corporate bet on the Chevrolet Volt.

He said “We think the Volt is a very well-targeted vehicle — right segment, right technology, right time frame. Full speed ahead.”

In other comments at the PHEV conference Clarke also said:

“We want the Chevy Volt to be a commercial success … a volume product. Yes, we want to make an environmental technology statement. But, we also want a car that sells and that people aspire to own.”

He also went on to say this:

“We’re doing research now on who our Volt customers are likely to be, and what their expectations are for an extended range electric vehicle. And, we’re taking those needs into account as we develop the vehicle. For example, most consumers wouldn’t sacrifice a radio for more electric range… so neither will we. We’re actually working with our supplier to find ways to lower the amount of electricity the Volt’s radio will use. We’re creating a vehicle and a business model that will work … and we want to make as few sacrifices as possible, because in the long run, we believe it will lead to even more enthusiasm for the Volt.

Then, we need to build on our positive electric vehicle momentum so that the excitement and pride around the Volt transcends the vehicle, to impact the Chevrolet brand … and eventually impacts the entire company. We want consumers to see the Volt as the game changer it is not only for our business, but for the way the world drives. Once they do, we can build on that success with other creative E-Flex models – but one step at a time.”

Popularity: 7% [?]

(17 votes, average: 4.76 out of 5)

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Posted by: Lyle

229 Responses to “Who Will Buy a Chevy Volt?”

hung Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 8:59 pm

Knowing GM, whoever buys them, they’ll be beta-testers.

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Jackson Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:00 pm

I will, if I can afford it.

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bruce g Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:05 pm

I wonder if that focus group has seen the fibreglass mockup yet…
Surely someone will talk if they have…
We have ways…

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Nick Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:09 pm

It’s fascinating that 30,000 people want to buy a vehicle that hardly anyone knows about.

I don’t think they will have any trouble at all moving every Volt they make, just like every current electric vehicle maker is moving everything they make with paid waiting list’s.

Even Segway had a 50% increase in sales over last year and those impracticle machines are 5 grand each.

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Arch Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:10 pm

I want GM to build this car. I gave it to them in 78 I think. I worked on it here at SIU from 74 to 78. The university decided it was a perpetual motion machine and forced me to give up the project. I gave all of my work to GM because I wanted to see it built someday.
I just want to see it built. I want nothing from GM.

Take Care
Arch

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JEC Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:12 pm

I like the idea of a plugin, but the more I look at what the real costs are, the more I wonder if the Volt will really be a high volume production car.

If I pay $35,000 for a Volt and drive 12,000 miles a year, i would guestimate a annual fuel cost of 8,000 miles of electric @ 0.80/40mile * 8000 = $160/year, and then 4,000 miles using range extender at 50 mpg, and gas at $4/gal, would equate to 4000/50 * 4 = $320/year. That would mean I spend $480/year on energy.

Now, If I buy a basic ICE at $15,000 that can get 36mpg, then I spend 12000/36 * 4 = $1333/year on energy.

That means I save about $1000/year on energy. So now I paid 35,000 - 15,000 = $20,000 more for a Volt to save only $1,000/year!

That means a 20 year payback! YIKES…..

So, somehow (And I don’t think this is truly possible), the Volt must have a payback of 5 years or less, which means it should cost <$20,000. I just do not see this happening….sorry.

Maybe someone can see the error in my justification….please!!!!!!

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Jackson Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:15 pm

hung (#1):

Anything so revolutionary will make any early adopter a “beta tester,” regardless of who is building and marketing it. As someone who has waited a lifetime for a practical electric car, I like the idea of having an active role in making that dream come true; even though I have no direct say in the actual engineering.

Anyone actually parting with money for something so new is taking a risk, but I would respectfully say that GM is also taking a considerable risk in making this chance available.

Yes, there is cause for caution. There is also cause for hope. The fact is, nothing good comes about without risk, and those who take a chance buying into this experiment deserve as much credit as those originating it, for any positive result.

I’m betting that the positive results will be tremendous.

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Gary Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:16 pm

And people buy expensive luxury cars becase? To make a statement.

And people buy the Prius over “normal looking car” hybrids because? To make a statement.

And people will buy the Volt because? To make a statement.

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bruce g Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:18 pm

The $4 may be a little light.
I have seen $10 proposed as the cost required to reduce US consumption by 20%.
That reduction in consumption was considered to put a serious squeeze on the oil price.

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CBK Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:24 pm

My first post. This is regarding the payback of the Volt vs a 36 mph ICE.

IMHO there is a bigger issue at stake than the payback. Think America and
getting off the oil cartel’s hold on our country. I don’t care if it takes 30
years to break even as long as I’m not supporting OPEC. Remember those
guys? They’re the ones who basically dislike everything we stand for. So
keep our money here.

Dismount soap box.

BTW, great site.

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lyleL Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:25 pm

Clarke’s comments sound like an excellent plan for the volts world domination.

6 JEC “Maybe someone can see the error in my justification….please!!!!!!”

I didn’t check your math but wanted to suggest another calculation based on $5.00 - $6.00 - $7.00 fuel cost. Does the cost justification work out better with those numbers. Fuel doesn’t stay at a fixed cost over the years.

Let’s also figure a lower maintenance schedule of oil, filter changes for air and oil, plus fewer repairs when running mostly electric. Don’t know how one would quantify all of those incidentals.

10 CBK Ditto!

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Bryan Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:29 pm

I’m on the waiting list and am anxiously awaiting the time when I can actually purchase a Volt. Yes, it is going to be expensive. Even if I don’t get an immediate payback on my purchase in fuel savings I will be promoting United States technology and jobs. Gary #8 is right, I’ll be making a statement that I support this concept and that it’s not just about me.

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JEC Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:34 pm

CBK
I understand the desire to eliminate reliance on OPEC and those associated with it, but to become a high volume vehicle, you cannot expect the average Joe to be able to afford this luxury. And it will take the average Joe to make this, or any car a success.

Somehow it just has to make good economic sense to drop $35k+ on a car. If the justification is that it will make us less dependent upon oil, then that is fine. But, when someone is about to plunk down 35 bills, he is going to have a hard time convincing himself that is all for the good of the country (patriotic or fool?)

Just some thoughts….

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bruce g Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:34 pm

Jackson#7,
If it was a Microsoft operating system I could agree.
This is an automobile with a century of engineering traditions.
It will not be any riskier than the first Prius ..or the Saturn Vue hybrid.
imho

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MarkinWI Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:39 pm

#6 JEC

40 miles per day * 365 days per year = 14,600 miles

I’m not sure how you arrived at 12,000 miles on battery plus 4,000 ICE. Assuming that this is your daily work commute, consider that you drive on weekends and holidays. Consider also that you may be able to charge during the day as society changes.

All that said, many people do the calculations and think that hybrids are not worth the permium with gas at $2, $3 or even $4 a gallon. Similarly, residential solar or wind power does not make financial sense right now for most people. This is why I feel strongly that we need government support to get us off oil. To me, it is a foreign trade and national security issue. Importing less oil = a stronger dollar. In the words of Alan Greenspan, the invasion of Iraq was, “mostly about oil.” We spend $10-$12 billion per month in Iraq. We can spend a few to get us off oil. Obviously, others who post here disagree.

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CBK Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:41 pm

JEC #13

I understand your point. I’m on the list for a Volt, but it has to be affordable.
If it is much more than 35K I will have to defer until it comes down, but I
won’t be buying it hoping that I will break even on fuel costs in the near
term.

I just want one… now please.

I cannot wait to see the final physical design.

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JEC Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:46 pm

Ok, let’s try this one more time with some new numbers, say $7.00/gal gas.

If I pay $35,000 for a Volt and drive 12,000 miles a year, i would guestimate a annual fuel cost of 8,000 miles of electric @ 0.80/40mile * 8000 = $160/year, and then 4,000 miles using range extender at 50 mpg, and gas at $7/gal, would equate to 4000/50 * 7 = $560/year. That would mean I spend $480/year on energy.

Now, If I buy a basic ICE at $15,000 that can get 36mpg, then I spend 12000/36 * 7 = $2333/year on energy.

That means I save about $1800/year on energy. So now I paid 35,000 - 15,000 = $20,000 more for a Volt to save only $1,800/year!

Which would put the payback period at approx 11 years. Still not so good ; (

The other issues with oil changes and other repairs, I would actually expect the price to be higher with the Volt. I have 20 years of engineering experience on electric drives, and the electronics are not cheap and with the harsh conditions that an automobile experiences, I am very concerned that the power electronics will be a problem (The power transistors, actually known as IGBT’s are very expensive). Also you have inverter rated motors (again not cheap), and you have the battery (oh boy that would not be something I would want to pick up at my local NAPA).

Not being pessimistic, just trying to get it all out on the table…

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JEC Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:50 pm

MarkInWI

I do not work 365 days a year….but with the price of gas, maybe I will be soon : )

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Dave G Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:50 pm

From the article: “Price point is important, but should we really expect GM to lose money on them especially when times are as hard as they are?”

I think the fastest way for GM to make money on the Volt is to lose money on the in initial 2010 batch. In the end, GM doesn’t really know how much it will cost to build the Volt until they start to ramp up the volume. In other words, I suspect that most of the parts cost figures GM is looking at now will change once unit volume begins to ramp up. This is fairly typical in procurement cycles.

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Mark Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:51 pm

I will buy it if:

1) I can actually BUY it. (Lease only = no money for GM)
2) If I can actually afford it. I have to see the final price tag in Canada before I decide.

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jeff Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 9:57 pm

A sales tax holiday + Fed rebate, as has been many times repeated. The better the technology the hire the rebates, that in reality going to GM, not the customer, from a grateful Country for doing what sorely needed doing. GM should get a Medal of Honor or such and a nice statue in D.C. for all the lives this tech will save.

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Tom Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:04 pm

Who will buy/need a Volt?
There is another factor to consider: future availability of gas. If demand is far greater than supply, there may be no gas to buy.
There may be no fuel for trucks to haul the gas in. If industrialization (or a boom in car ownership) occurs in the middle east, they may not have enough gas to export. If a war breaks out in the middle east, there may be no gas to ship.
What would you pay to get to work (hospital, doctor, dentist, …)? An EV powered from the grid is a far safer bet for reliable transportation than finding or affording gas. Our world is going to be very different 5 years from now. Our government has known this for years. They just don’t want to panic the masses. Do you know how many of our top official’s homes have been energy self-sufficient for years?

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Jackson Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:06 pm

bruce g (#14):

As a matter of fact, the success (or failure) of the Volt concept could very well come down to how well the computer and software functions. If a human being had to directly control the various functionality, only helicopter pilots or systems engineers would ever buy a Volt.

There is no “century of engineering traditions” for Li/Ion batteries of this size, or for a vehicle propelled at highway speeds by solely electric means.

I stand by my statement. It’s risky. It’s also worth doing.

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TwoNickles McFly Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:26 pm

Who are the people that buy $45k cars ? It’s probably not the person working the local 7-11.

Should have adopted the “Cobalt with a battery” idea instead (so at least some of the masses could afford this thing).

Nothing but a niche for the rich…

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R.V. Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:27 pm

Well I won’t be buying one! My wife would kill me.

I’ll be buying two!

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bruce g Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:32 pm

#23 Jackson,
Im struggling to think of examples of technology that have been a complete failure.The Hydrogen filled Zepplin was one. I supose that swedish warship that capsized on launch date was another but that was three hunded years ago. Then there was the Titanic that was considered to have sub standard rivets,probably didnt matter except that it hit and iceberg on its maiden voyage..

But mostly , well engineered machines perform to expectations

I think risk is generally overstated because it sells newspapers.
An example of overstated risk would be the forecast Y2K disaster of the begining of this Millenium. I stocked up with batteries and peanut butter and nothing happened.

But who knows….

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NZDavid Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:34 pm

Welcome to being part of a paradigm shift CBK.
Be aware this site is very addictive. You have been warned! Therapy may be required.

Nick, the second hand Segways with a new Li Ion battery are NZD 8,000 here. So they hold their value pretty well. I expect the Volt to do the same.

Jackson, brings a whole new meaning to the ‘blue screen of death’.
hehehe.

Cheers

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jbfalaska Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:37 pm

Well, the real cost of gasoling today is approx $10/gallon for Americans. I’ve spent over twenty years in public service to the country with the US Air Force. Nearly all our deployment destinations were Middle-East bound to protect the oil highway. The massive trade and budget deficits are largely tracked backed to America’s insatiable oil addiction and our waning ability to compete in light of this addiction. Grimly, one can predict the body count for Oil will only worsen if we don’t get off OPEC oil. It’s only the beginning of Middle-East turmoil as the world looks to fanatical destinations to supply a “must have” energy source. Our enemies are getting richer and more capable of menacing our country because of the riches flowing from our addiction.

The agonizing part here at home is educating America that choosing to create American jobs by using electric power sources, and foregoing exporting our jobs and dollars to Overseas Oil barons is better for us all. The American taxpayer is subsidizing the world without understanding that on any given day. China, Japan, India, Europe, we largely subsidize protecting their oil with our dollars. From the posts here, I can see that will prove a tough sell to convince American’s to subsidize the purchase of this Volt.

As for me, I’m buying a CHEVY VOLT: American-made, American-FUELED.

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Crows Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:38 pm

Just build the damn car already!

GM will tease us to death before the car hits the road!

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swimdad623 Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:44 pm

It looks like GM has done a nice job of building a unique and useful product. Right now, the most important thing is not to price it outside of the market.

Everyone knows that early adopters are willing to pay a little more for the product. However, the window for the ‘cost is no object’ crowd closed when the Prius was going for $10K over list price. Then, the Pruis was the only game in town if you wanted to show your environmental cred. Now, hybrids are available from Toyota, Ford, Nissan, Honda, and even GM. By the time that the Volt comes out, both Toyota and Honda will be flooding the market with hybrids under $25K, and the average Joe may not understand the difference between the Volt and the Prius, limiting the market for the number of people willing to pay $10K extra for the Volt.

In the end, the Volt is still on the chassis and much of the technology of the Cobalt replacement (Delta chassis). That’s going to make it tough to walk into a Chevy dealer and look at a $35K volt and $18K Cobalt side-by-side.

In the end, GM will find it tough to push the cost differental betwen a Volt and a Cobalt to much above $10K, which puts the price back to around $30K. At much more than that, people will buy a Prius or Honda Hybrid, and the Volt becomes another boutique product (like a Tesla).

Sorry GM. That’s the breaks.

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kirk Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:45 pm

First of all great website.

Regarding the calculations being done above one thing I would note is I don’t think the comparison of this vehicle against a 15k ICE is that valid. I would assume this vehicle would have standard features equal to or better than a typical 20k ICE.

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Dr Mark Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:59 pm

DIRT SIMPLE MACHINE - I recently paid back a friend for helping me convert my 2001 Toyota MR2 to Electric Drive, by helping him change the timing belt and cylinder head on a 1.8L turbo-charged VW beetle. It’s unbelievable how many custom moving parts go into that VW, and in comparison the AC induction motor drive system we installed in my car is dirt simple; it has one moving part (four more if you count the tranny gears and the wheels). The complexity is all in the electronics, which in mass quantities is really cheap ($5 microcontrollers and $25 IGBT transistors).

Along with the engine, we pulled out manifolds, headers, pipes, and mufflers, gas tank, alternator, radiator and cooling system, intake ducting, filters, engine control unit and miles of wires, ducting, hoses, gas-lines etc. So it’s clear to me that a reputable manufacturer should be able to knock out EVs for $6-7k plus whatever they get the batteries for. GM is spending alot now on a 56 kW generator for the Volt, but I think that will get simpler (maybe 20kW - 2-cylinders and alot less weight) as the battery technology starts delivering 80-100 miles for the same price that gives 40 miles now.

Remember, cost was the reason for going Lithium instead of a 100lbs heavier Ni-metal hydride pack using batteries like those in their 1998-2001 EV1. They must think they can get the battery pack well under $5k (~$300 per kW-hr) since a comparable NiMH pack would be about $6-$8k. So there is potentially ALOT of profit in this kind of car, and if it’s in time to be the only car of its kind in the world they will want to AND SHOULD get premium bucks for it.

Personally I hope they laugh their way to the bank for the next decade. Anybody else buying up GM stock? Go visit Scott Trade and make enough money to buy one of these overpriced beasts; It’s the American thing to do.

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Patrick Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 11:03 pm

JEC

For u guys that calculate oil prices at $4 / gallon, know that across the border here in Canada , gas is currently at $1.489/L, meaning almost $6 per gallon people.

Look, I drive a cobalt and it cost me $65 to fill up with premium this morning (cobalt ss requires octane 91). Imagine the guy that drives an Uplander let’s say.
It’s about time this car comes out!

Electricity here is at 5 cents/kwh in Montreal; so about 300$ a year for pure EV at 20,000 kilometers.
Compare that to the $2000 I have to spend on gas… much better!

I don’t care if there’s a 5-6 year payback period. Oil prices will keep on increasing and this payback period will decrease exponentially.

All this to bring you complete independence; not like a Prius where you still have ti fillup to drive around.

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RamZ Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 11:03 pm

I agree that there should be a federal tax rebate funded by either Carbon Tax credits or a windfall tax on the oil companies. These electric cars wil change our world in many ways. More computerization and networking of the cars systems will be seen more rapidly with more emphasis on electrical systems and not on ICE technology. More interfacing with the electrical power grid and transfer of electricity back and forth between the grid our houses and the cars.

I have a 2000 Ford Ranger EV, OEM electric vehicle and I love it. It’s only drawback is the range. It’s electronics have been extremely reliable and is going on eight years old. No oil changes, really no maintenance at all except for a water pump. I smile whenerve I drive it passed a gas station, I can’t wait to get my Volt.

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NZDavid Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 11:04 pm

Nasaman

Any idea what this tech would do for battery range?
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/06/air-products-aw.html#more

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jbfalaska Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 11:09 pm

My thought is the same as several posts. Will GM price this to mass production and beat Toyota to the lead, or price this so Toyota can make the mass production move and win the day - again. I note, Toyota and the Japanese auto industry today are being heavily subsidized by their government for battery technology for automobiles. They are preparing to win this war while our politicians remain committed to a Republicanesque hands off approach to the market. I suppose they believe the Middle-East sheiks will cut us a break. Bush is over there on bended knee begging often enough. Was that what Adam Smith mean’t - a free trade Monopoly?

Let’s get the Volt out the door. Subsidize the model it if that’s what it takes to lead us toward energy independence and American jobs for our auto engineers, lay workers, even miners pulling coal up to generate electricity and putting up electricity farms here.

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Gary Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 11:17 pm

swimdad623 #30:

Just because the Volt will be built in a Cobalt platform doesn’t mean it will be the same car for thousands more. All car manufacturers successfully use platform sharing for various models (mainstream and luxury) whose selling price differs by tens of thousands.

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ThombDbhomb Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 11:23 pm

I think Toyota will buy one.

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Vincent Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 11:37 pm

For starters I don’t think comparing this to a $15K car is the “same sheet of music” car to car.
This will be much more than an econo box Hyundai or Suzuki.

Not all buyers for this car are $15K buyers.
Those that want
New exciting technology
Freedom from OPEC controlling their pockets
Freedom from Oil Greedy #@**! companies
A Cool Car
and many, many more reasons
Will buy this car.

Instead of dropping $40 or 50K on a small BMW, Benz etc….
Will drop it on this bad boy.
Thats your buyer for the first Volts and they will sell out.

After the proverbial ball gets rolling and costs come down the econo box electric car will be here.

Do not make it look like a geeky Prius.
No whimpy skinny girl scout small diameter wheels.
Make it bad ass. Put your style in it Bobby!

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KentT Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 11:44 pm

I wonder why in all the cost comparisons of “payback time” on price per gallon/cost of car equations never bring up the fact of why people buy cars. A car is not a logical decision. If it were we would all be driving Honda Civics or something like it. Most Americans would not be driving Ford F150 pickups (literally the best selling vehicle, foreign or domestic, truck OR car for over 15 years!!!!) Nor would BMW or Mercedes sell cars or Cadillac because what is the “logic” of buying such a car to get you to work or the grocery store?

I have faith in the Volt as a CAR (not as a politically correct “green statement”) because one, GM builds cars (i.e. is not a startup, e.g. Tesla nor some kit car or conversion outfit) and two, Lutz is a true “car guy.” He has a big enough ego to bring about a car that will NOT go zero to 60 in 14 seconds. The Volt will be a real car with, great styling, inside and out, that will be fun to drive and will good if not great performance. It will be a Chevrolet equivalent of a BMW 3 series. OH, AND BY THE WAY, it will get the equivalent of 150 miles per gallon.

Forget about the “pay back” equations. All you have to ask is, “How will this look in my driveway?”

That’s what sells cars. Logic is just another excuse you use to convince your spouse the car you really want is the car you are going to buy.

Get it?

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NJR Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 11:44 pm

JEC-
People routinely pay 25-30K for a Prius when they could be getting a Cobalt. The Prius is a high volume car and Toyota can’t even keep up with demand. I agree with your economic assessment for the most part, but buying a car is about much more than finding the cheapest way to get from point A to point B. The Volt represents a transportation revolution in terms of energy independence, and I would bet that a lot of people will pay extra to be a part of it.

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Jason C Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:02 am

Lets look at another business model… the iPhone.

Early adopters paid $500 and $600 for a phone.
Apple then lowered the price by $200 after only a few months and give $100 refunds to early adopters.

They captured 16% of the smartphone market with one product in less than a year.

A year after releasing the iPhone Apple introduces a new model that has twice the memory and more than double the download speed for half the price.

Care to speculate how much of a market share they get?

The point is that the price WILL come down and performance WILL go up. Everyone is focusing on those first cars off the line. Just chill, everything will be cool.

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Paul-R Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:08 am

JEC, with all due respect, I see two flaws in your ROI analysis.

First, you should be comparing vehicles of similar size and performance. I’m skeptical that the hypothetical ICE car in your example exists. I think a real ICE car will either be more than $15K, be smaller than a Volt, be slower than a Volt, or get a combined city/highway mileage significantly below 36MPG. I think your comparison would be more interesting if you used a real-world car like a Civic or Corolla, with a price adjusted for 2011 model.

Second, ROI is not the only reason to buy a vehicle. A Tesla and a Prius would both fail your ROI analysis in a similar fashion, yet they are considered successes. The other purchasing motivations (extensively discussed already) will cause the Volt to sell. And that volume will eventually lower the price to where your ROI analysis may eventually favor the Volt.

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RyanP Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:09 am

#26 bruce g:
“I’m struggling to think of examples of technology that have been a complete failure.”

You need to do a web search on ‘The Museum Of Retro Tech’ and read all about just how often and easily technology can fail. It’s fascinating stuff.

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Grizzly Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:20 am

Dave G # 19

“I think the fastest way for GM to make money on the Volt is to lose money on the in initial 2010 batch.”

**** **** ****

Respectfully I disagree. Simple supply and DEMAND. The biggest fear is that the markup will go to dealers and not the all important GM who spent and SPENT to develop this car and needs to recoup. Dave G., I think you’ll agree that neither of us is likely to get one of the initial 10K releases, or at least I’ll admit I won’t for sure. We need to understand the state of the economy and the fact that the world’s richest economy ABSOLUTELY has people waiting to pay WHATEVER in CASH for one of the first 10K copies. WHY should GM sell these for a pittance? Think! If this goes through, GM will recoup big time and will sit much “prettier” for the second round which is both their goal and most of the general public’s and certainly mine for getting one of these at a reasonable cost. Not necessarily what anyone would have imagined, but we need to understand the business aspect of just what it takes for a “for profit” publicly traded company to come full swing and bring a product like this to market. The challenge for GM is how to handle dealerships on this one!

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RyanP Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:24 am

#30 swimdad623:
“It looks like GM has done a nice job of building a unique and useful product.”
They’ve built ZIP! They’ve only built an image of a product so far.

“Right now, the most important thing is not to price it outside of the market.”
I agree.

“Everyone knows that early adopters are willing to pay a little more for the product.”
The Volt MUST be competitive for me to even give it a second glance. Otherwise I’ll be buying the electric Smartcar or one of the myriad of other (cheaper) BEV’s that will be offered by the time the Volt comes out.

“In the end, GM will find it tough to push the cost differental betwen a Volt and a Cobalt to much above $10K, which puts the price back to around $30K. At much more than that, people will buy a Prius or Honda Hybrid, and the Volt becomes another boutique product (like a Tesla).”
ABSOLUTELY!!! Are you listening GM?

[Reply]
Mark Bartosik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:34 am

On ecogeek.org they have an article about Honda hydrogen vehicle. 50,000 people applied to lease it at $600 per month for a 3 year lease. There are only 200 available to lease, and I think only in California. http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/1767/69/

So who will buy the Volt?

I guess any of the 50,000 that applied to lease the Honda.
I guess anyone on our list that can afford it.
It won’t be long before our list hits 50,000 probably before end of summer.
ME!

[Reply]
Mark Bartosik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:35 am

.

[Reply]
Vincent Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:36 am

# 46 Thank God your not in marketing. Not being rude at all…but…
Comparing a smart car to a Volt.
OMG…your joking right?

Smart cars can barely do the speed limit up the NYS thruway. Let alone hold a grocery bag. Two completely diametric vehicles.

[Reply]
RyanP Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:41 am

#40 KentT:
“A car is not a logical decision.”
“…Logic is just another excuse you use to convince your spouse the car you really want is the car you are going to buy.”

AIN’T THAT THE TRUTH!! I bought my Chrysler Concord Lxi, my first new car, in a fit of mid-life crisis and am STILL paying for my rash decision. I will not make that mistake again, even for the Volt. With 30,000 on the wait list I’m probably far down the list, and hopefully will be getting a second year Volt, AFTER they work the bugs out.

I don’t care what it looks like in my driveway. I want the Volt to be logically thought out.

[Reply]
nasaman Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:44 am

32 Dr Mark……..
You say, “They (GM) must think they can get the battery pack well under $5k (~$300 per kW-hr) since a comparable NiMH pack would be about $6-$8k.” I agree! In fact, I’ve recently seen two independent, very specific references that make a compelling case for the 16kWh Volt battery pack’s cost in production quantities being MUCH LESS than $5,000 at GM’s cost!

Therefore, my answer to this topic’s question, “Who will buy a Chevy Volt?” is that the FIRST generation of the base-price Volt should cost no more than ~$28,000 …..AND at this price almost anyone who really wants one should be able to afford it!

[Reply]
nasaman Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:52 am

35 NZDavid……
The patents in the reference you give seem to address primarily improvements in the cost and temperature tolerance of a Li-Ion battery as opposed to its energy or power density. Therefore, my initial guess is that the range would not be greatly improved.

[Reply]
jeremy Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:56 am

I think one way to drive cost down would be to bypass the dealership altogether, make the car available online and ship directly to your driveway. Bad for the dealerships (and possibly in violation of contract obligations) but good for the consumer and for GM, whose blood, sweat and tears fuel the whole thing. They could get around the contracts somehow, that’s how corporations operate. Who needs a showroom to sell what so many of us already want without even seeing it?

[Reply]
GXT Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:57 am

JEC,

I think you are making the wrong comparison.

In early 2009 you will be able to buy Honda’s new hybrid for ~18,000 and get ~55MPG. At $5/gallon and 12,000 Miles/year that is $1090 in gas. That is $530 more per year than the Volt for a payback of 32 years.

If Honda’s timeframe and unit count predictions are accurate, Honda’s new hybrid will have saved over 250 Million gallons of fuel (12,000 miles/year as compared to a car that gets 25MPG) before the first Volt is even sold. It will be nearly 600 Million by the time GM sells the first 10,000 Volts in 2011. After those Volts have been on the road for one year they will have saved 4 Million gallons of oil (assuming 4,000 miles/year @ 50 MPG as compared to a car that gets 25MPG).

By the end of 2012 Honda will have saved 1,047 Million gallons. GM’s Volt (assuming 100,000 units in 2012) will have saved 48 Million.

[Reply]
RyanP Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:00 am

#49 Vincent:
I said ELECTRIC Smartcar which would presumeably have a long range, and be light and have the typical BEV acceleration of 0-60 in <5 seconds, and cost just around the $25,000 mark. THAT is what puts it competitive to a $40,000 Volt.
BTW, I’ve test-driven a (gas) Smartcar in Seattle, and believe it or not, it has 2 INCHES more legroom than my Chrysler and will top out at 85 mph on Interstate 5.

[Reply]
RyanP Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:07 am

#51 nasaman:
“Therefore, my answer to this topic’s question, “Who will buy a Chevy Volt?” is that the FIRST generation of the base-price Volt should cost no more than ~$28,000 …..AND at this price almost anyone who really wants one should be able to afford it!”

Hear, hear! Let’s hope that’s true! I might even become an early adopter if that were true!

[Reply]
Terry Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:11 am

I believe that once the MSRP is set, the price for any future Volt model year will not be less than that. At best we can hope that the battery prices drop enough that they can minimize the year over year price increases.

Where the benefit will come in is when they apply the technology on new models down the road with the second generation cars. We will see the adder for EV get smaller and smaller until the base cars will be EV but at the same price (and potentially less) than the ICE cars.

If I can’t save money from the start on the Volt I won’t buy one, but I do believe the future cars will be cheaper as the technology matures and spreads to other product lines.

On the other hand I believe people will look at the monthly payments as a fixed expense and see the MPG of the Volt as coming from their disposable income. Although it’s not a cost savings, the month to month operating cost will be cheaper and they will perceive it as being cheaper overall. The Prius is not cost effective by any stretch but people allocation X dollars for the payment and then enjoy the cheaper monthly operating expenses. They see that as being cheaper.

No doubt if you have a paid off Tahoe getting 12MPG and it’s in top condition you are financially better off buying gas for it than trading it in and going into debt unless the trade in value can offset the EV cost enough to break even. That’s a tough goal to reach.

I have a limited ability to pay to be green (emissions) as cold as that sounds. Taking a major financial hit to save the planet isn’t in the cards for most people.

[Reply]
Gary Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:12 am

GXT 54 (amongst others):

It drives me crazy when people post all their number calculations with fuel saved, break even times, etc. It’s boring to read.

Remember that as some people posted earlier, a car purchase is primarily an emotional decision, not a logical one.

[Reply]
Terry Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:18 am

Yeah, I tell my GTO that every day although I know this is my last hurrah for a muscle car.

[Reply]
Jim I Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:25 am

Who will buy the Volt? The off the cuff answer is that probably everyone would like to buy one.

But to determine a true demographic, we would have to have real information. Then you can figure out who will come to the dealerships to make the purchase!

So give us the detailed pictures, specs, pricing, availability, and warranty information, and then you will hear directly from those that WILL buy the car, and those that WON’T…..

And I find it almost impossible to believe that GM does not have this all worked out already.

Like I said - a long 29 months to go!

[Reply]
Ed M Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:54 am

Great innovation sells and sells easily. I would expect batteries to continue to improve much the same as the microchip and it won’t be long until everybody gets the bug. Not only will drivers save on gas, it will be a big plus for the environment.

[Reply]
Anthony BC Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 3:12 am

GM, read Nick #4 again!

Just like Bryan # 12 said, me too!

GO GM ! (Let me know when you’re accepting deposits!)

[Reply]
Bill S Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 5:34 am

The comment on the efficiency of the radio reminded me that I have not seen anything addressing how much of the 40 mile range is consumed by running the air conditioner when it’s 104 degrees out (not uncommon for at least a month or so in the south).

I can’t see many drivers being willing to drop $30K+ so they can sit and sweat in their eco-friendly car in a suit on the way to their business meeting.

I would assume this will also be an issue where it’s 10 below during the winter.

Have I missed this or have these questions not been formally addressed?

[Reply]
Dan P. Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 5:38 am

Anyone know of any Federal rebates or tax incentives yet or in the works? I bet that will make or break this deal.

[Reply]
Ken Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:01 am

When comparing a $35K car to a $15K car, one should not only look at the MPG. But also the whole car. If both are the same size and have the same options I could see that. But from what I’m seeing this new VOLT is more like a 25K car. So your estimates are off.

And then there are peope like myself that just want to own a fully functional electric car. One I have been waiting from since the 1970’s. When they make it, if the dealerships don’t mess it up, by upping the MSRP with one of those fair market markup price things some of the do, to make more money, I’ll buy it.

[Reply]
Estero Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:05 am

I’ll buy one, if I can afford it and I don’t have to lease the battery.

[Reply]
dagwood55 Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:07 am

#17 JEC,

The $20K you save buying a traditional economy car could be invested, reasonably safely, in the stock market for 5% dividends and would pay you $1K/year. You should figure that in.

[Reply]
pdt Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:33 am

#51 nasaman

Could you supply the references that say 16kWh will be $5000 = $312/kWh?

If that turns out to be true, the Volt will be economically viable with a very reasonable payback period.

[Reply]
Bernd Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:35 am

I will buy one!!!
Send it as soon as possible to Germany.
We pay around 8$ per Gallone and it is rising every week, no Joke!
And with the strong Euro this Car will be cheap.

So PLEASE send a few!

[Reply]
Johnnie Paul Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:37 am

What kind of people will purchase (?)

Hard working middle class like myself, people who know we need to start somewhere and somehow to find a way to move away from fossil fuels…

I can remember back in my 8th grade year when I learned in depth how an internal combustion engine worked, and that the first words out of my mouth in science class were “how barbaric!!…our cars run on controlled explosions?” I remember feeling let down, that we were not more inclined to have a better more efficient form of propulsion…

Now my time has come, the Volt’s time has come…that makes us a perfect match…I am one who will buy!

Johnnie

[Reply]
brad Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:42 am

Who will buy this car?

Everyone that can. Why?

Electric Drive is very fun to drive.
Its quiet.
Its fast.
It doesn’t require gas.
Many opportunities to plug in for free (this won’t take long, ex. work, family and friends houses, starbucks, malls)
Much less maintanence (windsheild fluid, and tires)
Easily upgradeable

What is all this worth to you?

Once this car hits the roads, even if its just a few of them at first, it will start to turn heads, make conversations and get people fired up. I don’t think there is any way GM can keep up with demand for the 1st 5 years. Hopefully they realize it fast and ramp up production as fast as they can.

GO GM! GO Volt!

[Reply]
Brad G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:42 am

To: GM
From: Brad’s wife

I told my wife that her next car was going to be a Volt. She was totally on board with the idea, but she said it had to LOOK COOL. She said if it looked like a Smart car or Prius then no deal.

[Reply]
RB Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:54 am

Lyle’s post asked (1) “Who will buy the Volt?” and it went on to ask (2)”should we really expect GM to lose money on it?”

I’m not sure these questions are posed in the best way. One aspect is that we have to guess (or GM has to tell us) how many they can make. Assuming they are able to make only 800 or so per month in the first year, the car is going to be in short supply. In that case GM can price it at $45K to $55K where Corvettes are and still sell them all just in CA, I imagine. The people who will buy the Volt will be relatively high-income business and professional people, certainly not the average Jane or Joe. If the Volt is the attractive car we are promised, the Volt40 still be will sold out, most likely, to people who want to be the first on their block.

On the 2nd question, GM is a corporation and is not going to be pricing anything to be nice or according to what we expect. They are going to set prices as high as they can and still sell the number they decide to make. They are not going to price the Volt below the cost of production of each individual one (because if they have to do this, they will stop the production line). The question then is how much margin there can be over the production cost. That margin is what has to flow back to cover the development costs and corporate obligations. Statik has advised that GM margins are in the range of 20 to 40%, and I’m expecting the Volt, as a hot car at first, to be nearer to the top end of the scale.

I think a more interesting question about sales is to imagine that in a few years batteries remain expensive but there is adequate supply, 100K per year and up. At that time, how much of a premium are people willing to pay to get an EREV car rather than a standard ICE car? First, I think they are willing to pay a premium. They might want an EREV out of curiosity, to avoid buying expensive gas, to be environmentally friendly, or whatever, but they will pay more.

How much more? My guess is that most customers are willing to pay $5k to $10K more than they would for the ICE version of a similar car. This amount will require a $50-100/mo higher monthly payment, but will be offset by lower gas costs. The excitement factor will be the kicker. At this level, the potential market is huge — probably every person buying a car in the USA, if a similar EREV is available for comparison.

[Reply]
Brad G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:59 am

On the price issue… What are people paying for the Prius? $25K-$30K? The only new car I have seen advertised for $15K is the basic Smart car with no A/C.

If a Smart car with no A/C fits your needs, go for it.

I’m a homebuilder and I have a Ford F-250 diesel ($4.79/gal). Gas car drivers ask me how much it is to fill-up and I tell them $100 and that I haven’t filled-up in 3 months because the damn diesel pumps turn off at $100! Yes I am looking into making my own biodiesel but back to the point and off my rant.

When HDTV’s first hit the market they were $8k. Now 5 years later they are $1,500 at Walmart. The Volt will start dropping in production price as soon as they start mass producing them. The unknown is demand. (Econ 101 - SUPPLY VS. DEMAND = PRICE)

[Reply]
Brad G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:04 am

WARNING: THIS SITE IS ADDICTIVE

ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK!

[Reply]
Eco Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:04 am

Brad G

Is that the instructions she gives to young men looking for women to date? Or does she think some things are more important than looks?

cars are appliances, with wheels.

[Reply]
Dave G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:05 am

#32 Dr Mark says: “GM is spending alot now on a 56 kW generator for the Volt, but I think that will get simpler (maybe 20kW - 2-cylinders and alot less weight) as the battery technology starts delivering 80-100 miles for the same price that gives 40 miles now.”

I don’t understand this.

First, I thought the ICE and generator were mature technologies for GM. Low risk and relatively low cost.

Second, I don’t understand how a 20KW ICE genset would work. Maximum output of an ICE never the most efficient. For example, the Volt’s ICE peak power of 53 kW will rarely be used, only in extreme conditions. Peak efficiency will be at around 30 kW, which is what the car should require at 65 mph slightly uphill. See here for details:
gm-volt.com/2007/08/29/latest-chevy-volt-battery-pack-and-generator-details-and-clarifications

By the way, I would love to hear more details about your conversion. What battery did you use? What size induction motor? How does it drive? It would be great to hear more real world experience on electric drive.

[Reply]
Murray Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:14 am

I will be surprised if I am able to get one of these when they are first released…cant wait to see how things play out and if being on this waiting list truly gives us any kind of step ahead of the next guy (or girl)….

I wont be able to pay cash for it but I’ll have a real nice deposit
Anything over $40k and I’ll be forced to wait (I just wouldnt want to hear the wife “You paid WHAT for this thing??”)

The other variable for me is that I lose my job for being addicted to this web site!

[Reply]
Dave G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:25 am

#51 nasaman says: “I’ve recently seen two independent, very specific references that make a compelling case for the 16kWh Volt battery pack’s cost in production quantities being MUCH LESS than $5,000 at GM’s cost!”

Nasaman, please tell us the references.

The only reference I have now is the Tesla Roadster battery pack. Unlike GM, Tesla uses the same batteries that are used in laptops, so volume discounts on these batteries are already in place. Last year, Tesla leaked the price they pay for the battery pack at $22,000. This is a 53KWh pack. So using this as a reference, I would estimate (16/53 * 22K) or around $6600 for the Volt’s battery pack in volume.

Note that, since Tesla is using standard Li/Ion technology, their pack cooling and safety would need to be more robust, which they have stated to be true. So the pack overhead on the Volt may actually be a bit less.

The Volt is built on the same platform as a Chevy Cobalt, which retails for only $15K. Given that the battery is around $6600 in volume, I’m hard pressed to figure how the Volt should cost a lot more than $25K retail, once volumes ramp up.

[Reply]
BLGould Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:32 am

If we get a government in November which is as willing to provide equivalent tax incentives to Volt purchasers as the existing admin is giving to owners of Hummers and other hogs, the additional costs could well be acceptable. GM shouldn’t be counting on such incentives in their pricing calculations, but if this technology is going to hit the volume sales necessary to justify continued mass production, additional R&D, and ultimately lower unit MSRP, I think our governments (federal, state, AND municipal) will need to “encourage” consumers.

The base 40 mile range on a full charge is a BIG selling point with this particular vehicle as such a large percentage of driving is within that range. I hope GM scraps their 20 mile base range vehicle considerations as that significantly reduces the utility and the incentive to buy such a vehicle.

[Reply]
wsallender Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:50 am

I don’t know if I will buy a Volt or not, but I will definitely be buying an EREV, of some type - mostly because I can’t stand our dependence on OPEC.

No Pruis - too ugly
No Aptera - again, too ugly
No Tesla - too pricey
Perhaps a Volt - if my wife and I agree with how it looks.
Will be interested to see what Honda, Nissan and others come out with.
Right now, the Venture Vehicles 3-wheel leaner is at the top of my list. The “fun factor” of this thing looks to be over the top.
Still - will be keeping an eye on the Volt.

Never been a “car guy”. Have been a motorcycle guy for 37 years.

[Reply]
David from Texas Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:51 am

Th!nk is introducing a vehicle that contains a strip of solar cells in the roof to supplement the energy consumed by onboard electronics. GM should look into this as an option. It would extend the all electric range.

[Reply]
Dave G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:52 am

#64 Dan P. asks: “Anyone know of any Federal rebates or tax incentives yet or in the works? I bet that will make or break this deal.”

Last month, a new bill called HR 6049 was passed again by the house, allowing $5000 in plug-in tax credits for a car like the Volt with a 16 kwh battery.

Unfortunately, Senate Democrats didn’t have enough votes to override a Bush Veto. See here for details:
gm-volt.com/2008/05/26/gm-ceo-misquoted-about-chevy-volt-price-and-timing-want-it-for-less-get-tax-credits-passed/

Specifically, here are the Senators that voted against this bill:
Alexander (R-TN), Allard (R-CO), Barrasso (R-WY), Bennett (R-UT), Bond (R-MO), Brownback (R-KS), Bunning (R-KY), Burr (R-NC), Chambliss (R-GA), Coburn (R-OK), Cochran (R-MS), Corker (R-TN), Cornyn (R-TX), Craig (R-ID), Crapo (R-ID), DeMint (R-SC), Dole (R-NC), Domenici (R-NM), Ensign (R-NV), Enzi (R-WY), Graham (R-SC), Gregg (R-NH), Hagel (R-NE), Hutchison (R-TX), Inhofe (R-OK), Isakson (R-GA), Kyl (R-AZ), Landrieu (D-LA), Lott (R-MS), Martinez (R-FL), McConnell (R-KY), Roberts (R-KS), Sessions (R-AL), Shelby (R-AL), Specter (R-PA), Stevens (R-AK), Sununu (R-NH), Vitter (R-LA), Voinovich (R-OH), Warner (R-VA).

If your state is on this list, please call or write your senator and ask them to support this type of legislation.

Alternatively, since this is obviously a partisan issue, a new party in the White House could help. Specifically, Obama’s speech in Detroit 2 days ago prominently mentions plug-in hybrids.

[Reply]
Brad G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:58 am

#76 Eco

Is there an unwritten rule that an EV can’t look cool? Do all EV’s have to look like a glorified golfcart with a body design that looks like an insect? If the Volt resembles anything close to the concept car then not only will you sell to the “enviromentally friendly” group and the “enegry independent” group, you would also capture the “camaro look at me” in-crowd.

Here is the Volvo 3c. NO it is not in production, but would you rather be seen driving this:

http://www.ultimatecarpage.com/car/2107/Volvo-3CC.html

[Reply]
Brad G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:05 am

Or this:

http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/MediaNav/articleId=120129/firstNav=Gallery/photoId=37989

And yes my wife only deals in cute people….

[Reply]
Statik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:09 am

Math thread v34.1

Forget the math. We don’t know the price or specs, so thats a discussion for price/production announcement (prob @ January Detroit autoshow)…and can we stop with the driving all electric for exactly 365×40 stuff?

Who will buy a Chevy Volt?

Checklist:
Do you make 6 figures?
Do you want to make a statement about oil/environment?
Do you hate jelly beans?

If you answered yes to the preceeding 3 questions, the Volt is your car.

GM will build a projected price curve based on demand vs production, and price it accordingly.

[Reply]
Todd Crenshaw Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:10 am

Response to post #6 JEC.

Your calculations aren’t far off the mark but there’s much more than just calculations to consider when buying a car. I mean have you really looked at a Prius? Those things are ugly, small, and I think Toyota converting them to plug in is just a marketing ploy. The engine still has to kick on at 30+mph. I love the looks of the Volt, it appears to be fairly roomy and has the comforts for a long distance drive. Maybe someday all cars will look like featureless bubbles like we see in the movies, but not today. Another point is that hybrid’s have shown to have a lower resale value then their gasoline counterparts. I’m not sure why this is but speculation is that the fear of the cost of replacing the batteries is high and there’s no easy way to determine the how much life is left in the battery pack. Hopefully the Volt’s good looks will help to counter this. I’m sure warranties will soon change to. If all you’re looking for is a return on initial investment then the Volt is not something to consider. Personally I’m looking for environmental, mileage (range), functionality and looks. The Volt meets all those requirements, the Prius does not.

Todd

[Reply]
RB Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:12 am

#83 Dave G — The politics of this issue is tied in part to the distribution of the car. We understand that the Volt is going to CA, NY, FL and DC.

I am from NC, with 2 senators voting against. By what rationale should the (relatively poorer) citizens of NC support taxes to supply subsidized cars to the (relatively richer) states of CA, NY, and the district, DC?

[Reply]
Phantom Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:12 am

From a personal point of view, I fill up approximately 10 times each month (74 miles roundtrip commute) costing approximately per fill up of $55 or $550/month. There is some additional discretionary driving of course. For 12 months, ~ $6600 on gasoline (if prices stayed static). Now, if I can reduce my gasoline consumption by half (actually expect more reduction), for the next 5 years (again at current prices), that equates to ~$3300 per year or ~$16,500.

My point is this, I’d rather spend money on my investment (buying a GM car) rather than throwing my money away on a consumable (foreign oil).

[Reply]
Murray Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:23 am

Damn!

I like jelly beans…

Guess I’m out - nice bloggin w/ all of you

[Reply]
nasaman Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:24 am

68 pdt, 79 Dave G…..
Re: #51 nasaman says: “I’ve recently seen two independent, very specific references that make a compelling case for the 16kWh Volt battery pack’s cost in production quantities being MUCH LESS than $5,000 at GM’s cost!” Here are the 2 references you asked for….

1) About 6 weeks ago, very detailed published information (almost as good as specific GM inside information) made it clear that……..

- The Gen 1 Volt battery should last 100,000 miles and/or 15 years

- The Gen 1 Volt battery pack should NOT cost GM >$3,500 each

WE SHOULD NOT LOOSE SIGHT OF THIS PUBLISHED INFORMATION AMIDST THE MYRIAD OF DIVERSE (often undocumented or completely unsupported) OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE!
Source: My post #57 at http://gm-volt.com/2008/05/10/continental-ceo-thinks-they-has-good-chance-of-winning-volt-contract/

2) More recently, LG/CPI gave a progress report on their research/
development of automotive packs for 10 mile and 40 mile AER ranges in which they say they’re striving to get the pack prices down to $500 each (& expect to do so). My assumption is the $500 pack refers to a 10 mile battery, so a 40 mile Volt battery would need 4 of these for a total cost of 4x$500 = $2,000.
Source: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/merit_review_2008/energy_storage/merit08_alamgir.pdf

Both of the above sources convince me that the Volt batteries in production quantities should cost GM substantially less than $5,000 each.

[Reply]
Van Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:24 am

Just a little on payback. If you buy a Volt and in 5 years, your used Volt has a resale value that is high, because gas now costs $10.00 per gallon, then the payback occurs. If you cannot unload your Volt because its battery is failing and a replacement battery costs $12,000, then you spent your money unwisely and will not achieve any sort of economic payback.

Lets take one example, and assume, for nobody who knows is telling, that the new Volt retails for $35,000. And in 5 years, people will pay you $25,000 for your Volt. So your cost of ownership is $2000 per year. On the other hand, lets say you bought a $15,000 ICE econobox, and in 5 years people will pay you $10,000 for your ICE only vehicle. So your cost of ownership is $1000 per year. And lets assume you drive 12,000 miles per year, 8000 electrically, 4000 using the range extender. So 2000 KWHs at 10 cents per KWH means $200 per year, plus 80 gallons at an average over the 5 years of $7.00 per gallon, or $570 dollars. So owning and driving the Volt costs you $2770 per year. Owning the ICE costs you $2800 in gas alone, assuming an average 30 miles per gallon combined mileage and $7.00 per gallon average.

Bottom line, if gas continues to rise and the Volt’s battery is sound, the Volt will be a wise investment.

[Reply]
RB Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:32 am

#91 nasaman — Thank you for these link to your earlier post and the comments there.

What time schedule do you see as associated with these prices? And is it for a commitment to 100K batteries? I understand that the price is per battery, but the schedule and number seems to require new production lines, as the contract you mentioned seemed to be for prototype quantities only.

[Reply]
RB Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:35 am

#92 Van — I agree with you, but I don’t think many people will buy a Volt for these reasons. Mostly people focus on what they have to pay, now. Anger at big oil is a motivation, but I’m not sure how much. To buy a Volt for $5K to $10K extra, the Volt is going to have to have sizzle, glamour, prestige, performance or something special.

[Reply]
Dave G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:36 am

#88 RB asks: “By what rationale should the (relatively poorer) citizens of NC support taxes to supply subsidized cars to the (relatively richer) states of CA, NY, and the district, DC?”

I don’t really see this as a red/blue state issue. Importing huge amounts of foreign oil impacts our economy and helps fund islamic terrorists. In fact, there are a number of special interest groups from all sides of the political spectrum starting to support this: evangelicals, cheap hawks, sodbusters, tree huggers, do gooders, and Willie Nelson. See here for details:
setamericafree.org

By the way, I’ve been to NC, and you don’t seem to be doing that bad, pretty good in fact.

[Reply]
nitpicker Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:38 am

From the nitpicker’s league: “Clearly, myself, and the nearly 30,000 people on our waitlist already hope to do so” should be “The nearly 30,000 people on our waitlist and I already hope to do so.”

[Reply]
omegaman66 Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:39 am

A bunch of two legged critters.

[Reply]
Jim I Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:43 am

Brad G # 84: I don’t know. The Volvo is kind of cool looking IMHO!!

Statik #86: Nice try pal. If you think I am going to walk away from my Volt, because of the jelly bean thing, you are mistaken big time…

It was a good try, though!

nasaman #91: Agreed, But that will be for the 2011 models and beyond. The first year’s production pricing are probably going to be expensive.

Van #92: Cars are not an investment, unless you buy it and not drive it, and keep it in perfect condition for 30 years or so. Then you could sell it and make some money from it. Otherwise, cars are just about the worst “investment” you can make. JMHO

[Reply]
Dave G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:47 am

By the way, there are many red states that would benefit from electric cars in the form of clean coal. Specifically, Montana, Illinois, Wyoming, West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, Texas, and Indiana would all see significantly increased coal revenue if electric cars take off.

[Reply]
Steve Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:48 am

Here is an outside the box idea, sell them based on a dutch auction, like Google did with their share prices. Figure out how many you can produce, and see what price the market would bear to sell that many volts. It may be a loss, but I’m guessing it will be profitable.

I know this is not a normal way to buy cars, but the interest in this site suggests that people are willing to take chances with this car, and it is potentially a market changer.

Finally, think of the free marketing you’re going to get with selling cars in that kind of a system.

[Reply]
scott Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:57 am

#91 Nasaman:
All that the CPI slide show says is that they are working on getting the battery pack down to $500. There is nothing to indicate they are even close. No conclusion can be made from this. You scold those who are spreading rumors and baseless opinions, but you are no different. You have no proof that these packs will cost <$5000, just an opinion. You are JUST LIKE THE REST OF US!

[Reply]
nitpicker Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 8:59 am

#100 Steve — I think you have a good idea. GM needs to be thinking some drastically new thoughts about marketing, even if in practice the outcome is not greatly different from the outcome at dealers, where a similar auction is called haggling.

[Reply]
Chris2 Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:01 am

They mention the “radio.” Well hopefully it’s a lot more than that…CD changer and MP3 player/iPod support should be standard - a nice sound system. The lack of engine noise might make for an especially good audio environment (for a car)…

BTW, I often work in/travel thru low-income neighborhoods (urban & rural). And while the houses are a mess, there are still a lot of Yukons, Escalades, Toyotas, etc…parked along the street and in the driveways…they often have the low-profile tires (hundreds each) and the super-shiny bling bling rims (a thousand +/- bucks each), and the pumped up stereos (thousands of dollars), along with other add-ons & exterior decorations. In the poorer rural areas, I always see the cool ($40,000) F-350 Crew Cabs with the lift kits and monster tires, as well as other makes/models of expensive vehicles of course….so my point is: no matter how broke people are, they still spend a huge amount of their income on their cars & trucks… Many many people will live in a shack, but they drive a $40k+ rig…I see it everyday, all the time.

So - I think that as long as the Volt looks good, is reliable - and is marketed well (they have to get people informed about the benefits of this technology) and distributed in large numbers, then many many people will buy one. Even if its “technically” out of what should be their price range.

[Reply]
Bruce F Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:06 am

Any word if the Volt will be eligible for the GM Supplier Discount? Any speculation on what it might be?

[Reply]
RB Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:07 am

#101 scott

At least give nasaman credit for this aspect of the battery price discussion: His reference to discussion and projection by CPI, a company who might supply such batteries, is more substantial than discussion and projection by me, a person not in that business.

[Reply]
Firefly Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:08 am

…well, I want one…

[Reply]
CBK Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:16 am

When was the last time any of us saw a decrease in the cost of any
automobile? I find it hard to believe that GM or any other auto
manufacturer will sell at a lower cost in future years. Sorry but comparing
iPhones to autos is not valid. Integrated circuits can be mass produced in
quantities the auto industry can only dream about.

Generally speaking, the cost is only going to rise on a given model. The only
hope I see for a lower priced Volt type vehicle, is a smaller vehicle. The good
news is that over time the range and performance will increase, probably
faster than the cost IMHO.

BTW, I have a 2006 Corvette and I won’t be giving it up any time soon no matter
what the cost of gasoline is…

[Reply]
RB Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:29 am

#107 CBK — Agreed, but lower prices sometimes do come with new models, from Ford’s Model T to GM’s Cobalt. If the first Volt is the benchmark, then subsequent models such (the LowerVoltage may have a lower capability or be less attractive and also have a much lower price, if at that time component prices are lower or assembly has been simplified. The electric vehicle market will be competitive, and GM is not going to be much higher priced, if at all, than comparable models from Toyota etc.

[Reply]
carlos Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:29 am

I hope I get one here in MA.

Pruis - is it smaller than Volt?
Tesla - too pricey, Dream car yet same car on gas is 1/2 the price.
Volt - looks like a good looking 4 seater. a bit sporty and can still cart family around.

At the end of the day will the Volt beat the Pruis on MPG?

[Reply]
Jackson Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:37 am

When I wrote about riskiness, in the early comments, I wasn’t intending to slam the Volt, specifically. I’m just saying that adopting radical new technology early on involves some risk, and we need to keep that in mind. I think the likliest scenario involves the software (it is hard to anticipate all the ways software can go wrong, until you have some copies in actual use). Remember, it happened to the Prius. They all had to come back to the dealer for a patch because they were unexpectedly stalling in traffic.

People on this site who are expecting everything to be perfect forever should keep their eyes open and not come back here whining over the first recall (the patch didn’t cost Prius owners anything). Bumpier problems could occur, however rosy things may look today.

I think you can hope for the best, at this point; and I am on the site’s waiting list.

[Reply]
Theoldguy Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:39 am

I travel about 50,000 KMS per year (30,000 Miles). A Volt would be ideal for me as a lot of my work gets me travelling around 100 - 250 KMS per day… just to get the first 40 Miles (70 KMS) would knock about 1/3 off my monthly gas bill and then at 50 MPG after that would save another 1/3 as my current 07 MAXX is averaging about 30 MPG (Canadian). That would mean a savings (at $ 6.03 per Canadian gallon this morning) of about $ 275 per month just on fuel.

I want a Volt.. $ 35,000 or so… Black with all the bells and whisltes.

Come on GM get the car out ASAP.. And keep it a “looker”.

Come mid 2011 (at the latest) I will be buying an “electric/hybrid” from an automaker…

I hope it can be GM..

And let us see the finished production “prototype” THAT would definately decide it for me if I am going to buy the Volt.

Ray

[Reply]
Jackson Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:49 am

Who will buy the Chevy Volt?

It’s interesting to reflect that the Prius, for which the actual economic case (and in some ways, the environmental case) is “iffy” at best, has become the iconic “tree-hugger” car. People unwilling to buy into Anthrogenic Climate Change (or whatever they’re calling it this week) often express distain for their drivers.

I have always believed that energy security was the main thing (as Bob Lutz reportedly does), and have been imagining something like the Volt for a long time. We “strategic energy” people have been pushed to the background in all the Global Warming fervor. It may be that the Volt will come to be an iconic symbol for us.

Unlike the Prius, the economic and environmental cases for the Volt are far from “iffy.” Greenies should take note that if we “strategic energy” folks get our way, it will do more which is positive for the Carbon Footprint crowd than anything they themselves are doing. Everybody wins.

Of course, it would be better for the Volt to have a more broad appeal, and this is likely; but there are worse things that could happen: especially if the car becomes a rallying point for a sensible energy policy.

[Reply]
MetrologyFirst Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:53 am

Jim I @98

I agree completely. Cars are not an investment. Cars are a consumable, at least to me. I buy one and drive it into the ground, over 10-15 years, until it is worth next to nothing. This is the best model, quite honestly. My cost of ownership per year is very low. And I can buy what I like. The issues for me:

1) I HAVE to drive, at least were I live.
2) Therefore, I have to have a car.
3) I spend lots of time in my car.
4) Therefore, shouldn’t I enjoy it?

YES!! Style, fun to drive, design; all that matters as much as who made it, and what fuel it uses!

The question is “Who will buy a Volt?” The answer should be anyone who needs a car and likes how it looks, handles, and meets their needs.

The bigger question is “Who can afford one?” This answer is, IMO, at least half of the buying public in the US. Because MOST people don’t buy based on some logical formula, they buy it on emotion and appeal. Otherwise the US would be full of $13000 Aveos and Hyundais. A $13K fuel efficient car is the only LOGICAL choice. Not even a Prius is a logical choice.

Therefore any logical argument is useless in the car buying process of most people. Most of us knew that, I would hope.

[Reply]
Kevin R Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:00 am

I’m on the wait list somewhere below 8,000, not that it matters. I want GM to know that I will be buying one given the opportunity when they first come out. If the opportunity is not presented me by late 2010 I will have to buy something because my Bonneville probably won’t make it to 2011 or so. Cost is a factor but I’m aiming at $30-35,000. GO Volt team

[Reply]
Van Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:02 am

Right now, people are mad as heck and do not want to take it anymore. They understand that dependence upon foreign oil is both a national security issue and a global climate issue. The Volt addresses both issues perfectly, it shifts to domestic energy use, and if the domestic energy comes from hydro, wind and nuclear, rather than fossil fuel, it reduces CO2 emissions. Which is to say, both liberals and conservatives will buy the Volt. And GM is all fired up and ready to go!

[Reply]
Gsned57 Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:04 am

Bob Lutz was recently in Seattle and I just read this article by the Seattle Times http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008003356_electriccar18.html

You get to the bottom of the article and they quote Bob as saying “Lutz said the first-generation Volt will retail for about $40,000 and generate no profit for GM. The company hopes to make money as it rolls out later versions of the vehicle and other plug-in models.”

$40K is a lot of money and given this thread of who’s going to buy it, probably a lot less people than if it only cost $30K. If congress gets off its ass and passes a rebate for PHEV like the one the house passed recently, the cost would get knocked down to about $33K and for that price I would certainly buy one.

Even at $40K I want a volt, but what I want and what I can afford in 2010 hopefully will be the same!

[Reply]
Tim Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:05 am

Nasaman (#91)

I want one of those $500.00 packs for my electric riding lawn mower.

[Reply]
wwskinn3 Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:25 am

WHO IS GOING TO BUY THE VOLT? The first buyers will be the wealthy guys with 40-50K to just toss out for it. Unfortunately for GM
these are not the guys that will drive and promote it. Most will just drive it once or twice to make a statement, have their picture taken with it and the car will disappear. GM needs to get these cars into the hands of the working people who probably can’t afford it but will drive it daily, show it, and talk about it to everyone they see or come in contact with. This is what will boost the car. This is how many products build up their markets - word of mouth. This is what they did with the EV-1 Program. Some went to celebrities but most went to working people who drove them daily. That is why they were so selective on who got them. Different classes of people living in different parts of the city doing different types of jobs.

[Reply]
Bill Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:32 am

I put solar cells on my roof that has a payback of over 15 years. Why? Because I can’t stand the thought of burning natural gas to generate electricity!! Likewise, the plug-in-hybrid, recharged at night when mostly nuclear, coal, and wind is powering the system will greatly decrease the use of oil to power my transportation needs.

The bottom line when it comes to the national economy and security - is not always the dollars and cents bottom line.

[Reply]
Tim Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:34 am

This Directory was created in order to keep an eye on fuel costs worldwide.

Why do we see prices from 12 cents USD up to over $11 USD per gallon for the same product from around the world?

http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Fuelwatch_Worldwide

[Reply]
Statik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:42 am

#118 wwskinn3

You are right, the Volt will be catering to the more ‘affluent’ of car buyers, the ’statement’ buyers, which is ironic considering this current wave to electric has been brought on by the higer cost to run a gas vehicle.

#98 Jim I

“Statik #86: Nice try pal. If you think I am going to walk away from my Volt, because of the jelly bean thing, you are mistaken big time”

I imagine you won’t, or others who are blowing countless hours here shooting the breeze (this is part of the fandom).

I would think that for ‘average joe,’ it would be different.

In 2012-2014 (when actual cars wait on lots for customers), he will probably have three choices, the Volt, the Prius, the i-Miev (there could be some others, but lets keep it simple for now).

Although each will have a specific unique ability, if they all look like jelly beans, I would think it would come down to price for average joe, and thats not good for the Volt. If the Volt is hip, the ‘bee’s knees’ if you will, it insulates itself somewhat from this scenario.

Please no ‘jelly bean/Malibu’ please GM, for both our sakes.

[Reply]
Jason M. Hendler Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:46 am

As far as marketing is concerned, GM should emphasize that the Chevy Volt uses NO gasoline for the first 40 miles, then gets 55 mpg (or whatever the number ends up being) after that. Add a couple basic facts - 0 to 60 time, top speed, number of passengers, then, just sit back and let the buyers flock in.

I would NOT show any people in the Volt ads, because I think many different types of people will buy this vehicle for different reasons. You do not want to alienate buyers by portraying the vehicle as intended for some other type of person.

[Reply]
M1EK Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:47 am

The delusions displayed here are just breathtaking:

#1. People, GM may not be around for long enough to build this car for you.

#2: The Prius doesn’t sell because of how it looks - individual car buyers can be dumb, but they’re quite smart in a herd. It outsells other hybrids because it’s huge in comparison (and gets better mileage too). Consider the Civic Hybrid - a close #2 in mileage - much smaller back seat, tiny trunk, and the seat doesn’t fold down. Duh.

#3: GM MAY NOT BE AROUND FOR LONG ENOUGH TO BUILD THIS CAR FOR YOU.

#4: Parts of GM are serious about building this car; but most of the energy is still a result of the original plan, which was quite clearly an effort to delay people from buying Japanese hybrids until gas got cheap again. Since the project was originally mostly FUD, you’re being incredibly foolish if you expect them to meet the originally promised dates now that they actually have to deliver on what they originally had no intention of doing.

[Reply]
Nelson Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:48 am

Mark @20
Why are Canadians paying over $8,000 more on MSRP on vehicles like the Honda CR-V ? Is it a government TAX thing? Can you buy in the US and drive it back to Canada to save on cost?

[Reply]
Statik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:50 am

#120

Why do we see prices from 12 cents USD up to over $11 USD per gallon for the same product from around the world?

Taxes on the high end. On the low end we have supplier nations, and on the super low end, we have supplier nations with a marginal domestic use, so the price is actually sub cost to stimulate the economy.

(Venezuela just does it because it can, a ‘hey look at us’ moment if you will. “We can just take a bucket down to the lake and viola, gas!” I kidd, but it’s kinda like that…easy access oil).

[Reply]
Tim Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 10:51 am

British gas gets to almost $15/gallon at some stations

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/06/18/british-gas-gets-to-almost-15-gallon-at-some-stations/

[Reply]
MetrologyFirst Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:03 am

Statik @120 Finally gets it!

……”Although each will have a specific unique ability, if they all look like jelly beans, I would think it would come down to price for average joe, and thats not good for the Volt. If the Volt is hip, the ‘bee’s knees’ if you will, it insulates itself somewhat from this scenario.

Please no ‘jelly bean/Malibu’ please GM, for both our sakes.”

DEAD ON, Statik!! I have been saying this for months. The car’s style means more to the Volt than to to any of the others. GM will have missed a GOLDEN opportunity to change the game, if the Volt looks like a bubble.

GM, take 15% of that range and design the Volt to be cool looking and beautiful. I think most would forgive you if you miss the range promise by a little.

[Reply]
Statik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:04 am

#123 Nelson

“Why are Canadians paying over $8,000 more on MSRP on vehicles like the Honda CR-V ? Is it a government TAX thing? Can you buy in the US and drive it back to Canada to save on cost?”

I’ll take this one, in case Mark is not around.

Canada prices are falling, but slowly. Automakers have been making great margins in Canada for 3-4 years. Slowly they have been papercutting each other down.

What you see now is ‘hot selling’ cars staying at their inflated price ie) back when the Canadian dollar was only worth 65-70 cents. A example of this is the Prius. Toyota just slashed everything across the board in Canada by thousands, however the Prius, still $29,850. Why cut the prices of a item you can sell I guess.

Conversely things like the Hyundai Accent, they have been flogging at $9,995 for months.

As for importing, it really isn’t that hard or expensive, I’ve done this myself, Canadian autodealers/manufacturers would like you to think so, but unless the car is a Mercedes, you are ok (they need alot of mods…that only the dealer can do…think big $$$)

It’s a $195 + GST ($204.75) RIV fee.
Plus GST (5%)
+$100 if you have A/C

Important note: You must bring your car in through Alberta, as it has no provincial tax (because they are drowning in $100 dollar bills from all the oil), if you bring it thru Ontario for example, you get to pony up another 8%.

[Reply]
Jon P. Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:11 am

#17 JEC

You keep making reference to a 15K car that gets 36 mpg….

What car can you buy for 15K, not a civic, not a corolla, maybe a hyundai something and i’m pretty sure that its not going to get 36mpg? (maybe on the highway with the cruise on over 200 miles, with the windows up, and the air off, and……)

As far as cost of fuel, your trying to calculate it at to long of a scale.

I drive about 50 miles roundtrip to work (which probably represents like 85% of the general public)

So here goes a week for me, then multiply that by 52

I’ll go 40 miles on all electric at a cost of .80.
I’ll go the remaining 10 miles on gas which at the est. 50mpg would mean i burned a little less than 1/4 gallon so lets say gas in 2010 is $5 gallon thats
$5 x .25 = 1.25

so in 1 day i’ve spent about 2 dollars to commute to work. Compared to your 36mpg car that will take around $6.50.

so i save 4 dollars a day times 5 days thats 20 bucks a week.

20 bucks a week for 52 weeks thats $1040.00 a year.

So your car cost 20K and takes 32.50 a week in gas x 52 = 1690 a year
My car cost 35K ,saves the world, and takes 10 a week in gas x 52= 520 a year

after 7 years:
you spent 20K + 1690 a year in fuel x 7 = 31830
I spent 35K + 520 x 7 = 38640

You saved 7K over 7 years, you drove a death trap econobox, you changed your oil 4 times a year, you had a full tune up at least once, you probably had to change your timing belt, you went to the gas station for 10 minutes at least once a week, ( i went once a month), this is assuming that you had no mechanical failure just purely maintenance, you did nothing to change the world we lived in, and you told your kids i saved 7K Good luck with your future!

Now to my real point: for everyone driving a cadillac, infinit, mercedes, bmw, audi, VW, jeep, hummer, lexus, jaguar, range rover, almost all hondas, and toyotas, and just about every car out there thats not a hyundai. or one of the Jap econoboxes you already paid probably 25K and up. Most probably paid 32K & up.

So if you paid 30K and up which you probably did, this car will only take 4-6 years to help you break even. Which if thats the main reason your buying this than you should probably buy a stripped down elantra and be done with it.

But when gas is $9 a gallon and you have to decide between gas and food, my only choice will be which of the places i need to go fit inside my 40 miles that cost me a dollar!

Or better yet, if you can’t get gas at all, i’ll still be going 40 miles a clip.

Please stop with the 20K econoboxes, look out your window they probably represent 6% of the cars on the road. if you want to make a real comparison you need to use a corolla/civic median of probably 19-20K. And that would still only represent maybe 30% of the automobiles. I would say the majority of cars on the road are 27K and up.

Maybe your math works for you but it dosen’t for me(or most others if you look out your cars window). So i suggest you just go buy a elantra and stop acting like your in the majority.

[Reply]
Statik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:11 am

#126 MetrologyFirst

“DEAD ON, Statik!! I have been saying this for months. The car’s style means more to the Volt than to to any of the others. GM will have missed a GOLDEN opportunity to change the game, if the Volt looks like a bubble”

Nod.

With all the money being poured into this, it would be a shame to end up with a curvy Malibu.

The other companies are working at getting out as many as they can at a reasonable price. GM is working at get a few out at maximum price, therefore a good 10% of the cost should be in items/features/styling that the Prius/i-Miev cannot possibly mimick after they set the bar on their prices.

…and no this does not mean I want the car to look like it’s ‘from the future’ Maybe invite the guys from Cadillac to come over with some thoughts…and don’t allow access to the shop to anyone that has designed aesthetics on a Pontiac.

[Reply]
Rich F. Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:15 am

To #113 MetrologyFirst:
I agree 100% with what you said. If everyone sat down and did a gas mileage analysis of every car and used that as the sole reasoning behind their car buying decision we’d all be driving 4 cylinder compact cars getting 35-40 mpg. The fact is that in America the automobile has a special place and the purchases are often not practical but highly emotional ones.

So the people who will buy the Volt are those who want and can afford to. That’s it. The reasons will vary, some to make a statement about foreign oil dependency, others because the car is cutting edge and cool, and others because of the gas mileage. But in the end the reasons will be personal.

[Reply]
nasaman Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:23 am

Referring to my post #91 above, to clarify…..

93 RB, 98 Jim I, 101 Scott, et al……

The first reference I give in post #91 is based on A123 work supported since 2006 by the DOE & USABC, and their $3,400 battery price is based on production quantities (100,000ea) of 16kWh batteries.

The second reference I give in post #91 is based on very similar DOE/USABC-supported LG/CPI on-going development work. The following is quoted verbatim from one of the LG/CPI charts;

>”Cost ($500/pack)
>”Have we reached the target as yet?
>”No, but we are working on it and have made significant strides toward that goal”

Draw your own conclusions, but mine are that GM should NOT have to pay more than about $3,500/battery from EITHER A123/Continental OR LG/CPI for production quantities for the Gen 1 Volt.

PS: If these development efforts & price predictions are for PROTOTYPE batteries as you suggested RB, so much the better. Manufacturing-level pricing should be still lower!

[Reply]
GXT Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:26 am

58. Gary,

I can understand that numbers get boring.

To put it in words, my point is that people think that the Volt is going to save fuel. It in fact costs massive amounts of fuel as GM is wasting time that could have been spent building a mass-market car.

It makes no economic sense (for GM and the consumer) AND it is actually a net bad program for the environment.

[Reply]
Gsned57 Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:30 am

My comment is still awaiting moderation, but take a look at the seattle times article online.

“Lutz said the first-generation Volt will retail for about $40,000 and generate no profit for GM. The company hopes to make money as it rolls out later versions of the vehicle and other plug-in models.”

[Reply]
Statik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:35 am

#128 Jon P

Aaaaaaaaaaaah, more math!

You see to be picking and choosing what cars compete against the Volt. But allowing for that, 35K for the Volt is no reality, far from it. Reading the press clippings and ‘off-the-cuff/test the water’ remarks from Lutz and Wagoner, I’d say 45K is more realistic.

If we can chose it’s competitors, maximize it’s ’sweet spot’ for mileage, how about another scenario.

People who do ‘mileage math’ are 10 times more likely to buy a used car. “Mileage math” people would rather let someone else take the hit off the lot, then pick it up a few months later, still in prestine condition and with full warranty.

How does the math work, if say I buy a ’slightly’ used this model year Malibu (essentially the closest gas relative of the Volt), 2008 Malibu with 10K-15K on it goes for around $13,000.

Guys that buy cars on ‘mileage math’ are generally fit into two categorys:

A) New Econoboxes (used-car-aphobia)
B) Efficient slightly used sedans w/warrantly

[Reply]
Tim Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:37 am

Jim Woolsey: Plug-In Electric Vehicles 2008

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAGYR2sEN1Y&feature=related

THIS is why we need to buy Volts no matter WHAT they cost!

[Reply]
mien green Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:37 am

Xhrist, nasaman. It was bad enough when you preached to us in cap letters.

[Reply]
Dave G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:47 am

#91 nasaman,

Thanks for the links. You can also use my Tesla based calculation in post #79 as a 3rd reference point if you like.

All of this points to the fact that the Volt should cost significantly less than $30,000 in production volumes.

Normally, brand new car designs don’t make money in the first year of production, but car makers generally set a low initial selling price anyway. In other words, the car maker sets the initial price so that it will be profitable once volumes start to ramp up, but the car manufacturer will actually lose money on each car sold initially. This is because a high initial price could stunt growth prevent volume sales that are needed to lower costs. So the typical market model is to take a chance and lose some money on every car sold initially in the hope that this will trigger volume and profitability more quickly. This same market model is also true for many other products besides cars.

It’s beginning to become clear that GM is not following this market model with the Volt. Bob Lutz seems to indicate that initial selling prices will be much higher than volume cost analysis would indicate. There are several possibilities why GM might want to do this:
1) GM is afraid costs won’t come down when volume ramps up
2) GM is afraid volume will never ramp significantly
3) GM doesn’t have enough cash to cover the volume ramp period
4) GM is angling for Congress to pass rebates for PHEVs
5) GM doesn’t care about Volt unit sales, they just want “green washing”

Of these possibilities, I believe #4 is most probable. At least I hope so. In other words, I hope GM starts talking about lower selling prices again after PHEV rebates are passed.

[Reply]
Kent Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:51 am

My price point is $30,000. Any more and it’s not feasible. Also, what is this “ICE” that other people are referring to?

[Reply]
noel park Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:54 am

#28 jbfalaska:

You have consitently made the point, correctly in my view, that the true cost of gasoline is more like $10/gallon including all of the “externalized costs”, particularly of war and “security”, not to mention air pollution and other environmental impacts, which are paid by all of us citizens indirectly.

One of the biggest reasons I would buy a Volt is to do my part to help to remove the necessity for the above. This is also why it is in everyone’s interest to have the government provide incentives for the Volt. It will save the governmant billions of dollars in the end, billions which we all will pay otherwise.

Those who have mentioned that rigorous ROI analysis plays little role in most car purchases are totally correct, IMHO. Otherwise, as someone pointed out above, we would all be driving Aveos or Yarises or Fits or something.

Gerat comments guys. You are the best.

[Reply]
Benny "Peak Demand" Cole Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:56 am

I sure hope the the Volt is a smash-hit. Here in L.A., I see tons of cars that sell for more than $40k. Maybe they are leased.
I pay $50 a week for gasoline, and I have been limiting my miles. That’s $2,500 a year.
I think Volt buyers should get a tax credit. They do not use imported oil (as much) and pollute the air less. Those are external benefits not reflected in the price.
All that being said, GM should make the Volt look as sexy as possible. Red hot. It is not an econo-box, or greenie-weenie-mobile. It should be the smartest thing on wheels.

[Reply]
Dave G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:00 pm

#128 Jon P. asks: “What car can you buy for 15K, not a civic, not a corolla, maybe a hyundai something and i’m pretty sure that its not going to get 36mpg?”

Right off the chevy web site - go to Cobalt page - do “Compare Vehicles”:

2008 HONDA CIVIC COUPE
MSRP: $15,610
Fuel Economy Highway (mpg): 36

Given the MSRP is $15.6K for the base model, I’m pretty sure you could get a Civic with a few options discounted for around $15K, including destination charges.

[Reply]
CBK Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:06 pm

Tim #35

Amen brother. Great video.

The higher calling is our own security and peace of mind never mind the
dollars and cents you may or may not save.

I say let them drink their oil for breakfast.

GM, get the Volt and any follow-ons out ASAP.

[Reply]
Statik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:06 pm

In other news:(sorry GeorgeK)

GM is getting obliterated today on the market.

I don’t see any direct news, (other than Magna letting go 400, but that is surely not it) and Chrysler saying it is going to undercut GM on hybrid SUVs.

Off another .90 cents, down to $14.90.

Yield is getting closer to 7% on that dividend. I’m not sure what the low was in the mid 70s, $14-something, but it now threatens to go ‘off the chart’ as I can only track back to the late 50s.

Check the insider trading last quarter:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837285?q=gm

[Reply]
Jim I Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:09 pm

Kent #138:

ICE is short for Internal Combustion Engine. It is what you are driving now….

[Reply]
Mike D Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:09 pm

#141

also remember that new 2008 EPA MPG estimates are tougher tests, meaning with a feather foot and no blasting AC or all 4 windows down all the time, you can get 40-43 MPG

[Reply]
mien green Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:16 pm

136 Dave G

6) GM wants to position the Volt to be its money maker if the demand is there.

That’s why they’re working furiously on the demographics.

I just saw over at autobloggreen where gas is now $15 per gallon on the retail market in parts of Britain. I think all bets are off on price comparisons by 2010.

[Reply]
Eco Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:18 pm

M1EK-

GM won’t fold in the next four years, if the next President has to bail them out with the entire treasury.

People are smart in herds? How’s that SUV-craze working out? Subprime loans? McMansions? Bottles of municipal tap water labeled with a pretty lake on the front?

If you want the “smartest thing on wheels,” buy a Camaro. To me, the “smartest thing on wheels” is what is safe, costs the least to buy, does the job you need, and does not rob you blind to keep it moving. I’m looking for a Flextreme, not a Volt.

[Reply]
Anthony BC Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:27 pm

Jon P # 128 - FANTASTIC RESPONSE !

GO GM, GO VOLT !

[Reply]
awatral Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:28 pm

Re: JAC, Paul-R et all

I think that we cannot escape the ROI analysis - unless you live in some distorted economy (like communism) the price actually reflects the environmental impact of goods you buy. (every manufacturing process requires energy & pollutes, so is every worker a consumer and thus requires energy & pollutes).
So if the price differential between the ICE car and VOLT cannot be amortized over the expected life of the car (regardless of how long you own it) it pretty much means that by buying it, you are doing MORE HARM to the environment all things considered.

So, if the “greeny” argument is invalidated by the price of car, all you are left with is patriotic selling point……

The bottom line is that from this point of view the advertised base price for “bare bones” Volt car shall not exceed $29K

1. payback period
Since it is going to take more than few JD Powers awards to convince people that GM can again build quality cars we can assume the average maximum useful life of the car to be 9-10 years and ***without replacing batteries*** nor any major element of the electric car.
(and for simplicity sake let’s ignore ROI on alternative investments & compounding)

2. proper reference car & price
I believe nothing is more appropriate than Prius, is not only in comparable size segment, but it is also the most efficient ICE vehicle…. and GM will inevitably directly target its current and potential customer base
the basic 2008 Prius cost $21,5K, assuming inflation based price increase you can say that reference price in 2010 to be: $23K

3. saving calculation
lets go with the same basic driving pattern assumptions &Volt “energy costs” of $450/year
2008 Prius gets 46 MPG - yearly energy cost $1050
yearly savings = $600

4. 10 years x $600 = $6,000

5. Volt price $23,000 + $6,000 = $29K

My bottom line: go help GM lobbyists…….

[Reply]
Donan Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:36 pm

Tim,

Thanks for the youtube link. Great two part discussion.
The Volt is not the only game in town as evidenced by the Prius chat rooms and aftermarket companies doing add-on plug-ins. Also, I expect the Nissan Cube to hit the market within 18 months following the Volt. It will be a smaller more affordable car not unlike the Mitsubishi Miev which is also on its way. The more competition the better in the plug-in world. This will only help us move in the direction opposite oil dependency.

[Reply]
Tim Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:40 pm

“Imagining the Plug-In Future” panel discussion from the Plug-In Electric Vehicles 2008 conference in Washington DC (sponsored by Google and the Brookings Institute.

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Imagining+the+Plug-In+Future+&search_type=&aq=-1&oq=

WOW!!!!!

[Reply]
DaveP Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:44 pm

I suggest that ROI is not a great way to look at high mileage hybrid or electric cars. A different way to look at them is from a “risk management” standpoint. Sort of like insurance. Collectively, the people who buy insurance are losing money. However, tell that to the person who’s house burns down and gets a replacement.
Similarly, when my friends and I all went out and bought hybrids (for various reasons) gas was cheap and everyone else thought it was a poor ROI. However, once gas prices tripled or quadrupled in the span of a few years, I realized that what we had bought was really risk exposure reduction. It’s not how much the car saves in gas, it’s how much each month you spend for gas and how much inflation exposure can you tolerate? Remember that when gas quadruples in price because oil quadruples in price, everything else you buy will shortly become more expensive as well. Like food and plastics and chemicals and drugs and anything else that is heavily dependent on petroleum. And if you’re like most people, your salary will not be quadrupling to keep up.
So, for those factoring 7 or $8 gas, you are factoring too low. You should figure $16-$20 gas but it won’t rise there this “surge” (or by 2010). Gas prices will level off, maybe drop a bit, and then in 10 years, it will slap you hard when you least expect it. It’s jumped that way 2 times (with a third jump at maybe 2x-3x) in my lifetime, and given the inelastic supply and demand, I’m pretty sure it will happen exactly that way again. So, yeah. By 2010 I’ll buy a Volt so that in 2015 more people will have the opportunity to do so, so that in 2020 when gas goes up to $20, nobody who knew better than to buy a lowly 35mpg gas car would have had to do so.
So, if I use the numbers from a couple posts previous, here’s your risk exposure to quadrupling gas costs:
Volt =450 * 4 = $1800
Prius = 1050 * 4=$4200
How would your budget do in that case? And if you have solar power providing for your Volt, you have even LESS exposure to gas jumps, since the Volt cost will be so much smaller.

There is great value in minimizing your exposure to risk.

[Reply]
Andrew Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:46 pm

Heres a good example of why all the math is just so much drivel. If you really want to save money do what i did - the point being that if you want to save money in todays market you should be buying a huge, used, and way underpriced SUV that gets horrifically bad gas mileage.
1. Buy a 2001 Dodge Durango SUV with a 5.9 L engine for $5500 that averages 13.3mpg over freeway and city on my 55 mile round trip to work each day
2. Thats 13200 miles a year assuming i don’t drive it on weekends and assuming a take 2 weeks of vacation and 10 days of holidays off every year.
3. Thats 993 gallons of gas a year
4. I live in CA where Arco gas is $4.50 a gallon, so thats $4500 a year on gas
5. Assuming a $20k Camry (Americas most popular car) and an average of 36 mpg (which i think is higher than what i would really see), i’m paying $2850 (4500 - 1650) a tear more for gas.
6. I paid $15k less for my car so thats a pay off of 5.26 years.

Yah yah, i may see some increased costs in repairs on an older car not under warranty, but i’m also not going to take the depreciation hit that the new car buyer is going to take, which i figure about evens out.

So - forget the high mileage cars, go get yourself a nice used SUV that the market is currently pricing way below its value, even, and especially, when factoring in the price of gas.

[Reply]
nasaman Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 12:54 pm

79 & 136 Dave G, 137 Kent, 148 awatral…..

All of you have made what appear to me to be careful, reasoned, objective analyses leading (by differing paths) to a maximum feasible/credible selling price for the Gen 1 Volt’s Base MSRP……

Nasaman - $28,000

Dave G - $25,000

Kent - $30,000

Awatral - $29,000
————————————
Avg - $28,000 Gen 1 Volt Base MSRP <<<GM PLEASE NOTE!!!

[Reply]
MDDave Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:07 pm

Andrew @ 152

If it’s really all about money, then why not buy a 2001 Suzuki Swift instead of the 2001 Dodge Durrango SUV? You would save even more money that way.

I think the fairest comparison would be between the Volt and a similarly sized and equiped new car, but even then it’s hard to get consensus on what car makes for a good camparison, seeing that the Volt is so different than anything that is availalble right now. We also don’t know what gas prices are going to be like in the future–they will probably be up, but oil was under $20 a barrel just a few years ago, so anything is possible.

[Reply]
M1EK Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:16 pm

#146, people chose SUVs based on the economy at the time - SUVs were artificially cheap (subsidized in many ways; given easier regulations to meet) and for them at that time it was a rational choice (not a good one for all of us, but for the individual it was). Note that even though a few drove Hummers, most didn’t.

Likewise, people aren’t buying the Prius in aggregate just because of the way it looks even if you find a few who say they are. Occam’s Razor suggests that the much more compelling objective advantages it has are carrying the day (especially since the Insight looked very unique too and sold very poorly) - when you’re talking about hundreds of thousands of buyers at this point.

But go ahead - keep insisting you know better than the company that’s sold a million now, and back to months-long waiting lists WITHOUT the tax credit.

[Reply]
Paul-R Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:20 pm

Awatral, I’m not trying to escape the ROI analysis. I’m merely pointing out that ROI is one of many factors that determine which car to buy. Other factors are appearance, image, loyalty, patriotism, performance, entertainment, conservation, environmentalism, etc. IMHO, ROI is usually not the dominant factor. Therefore, the Volt will sell (at least initially) even if the ROI doesn’t make sense.

[Reply]
Phil in GA Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:31 pm

I’ve been following this site for some time. I believe America MUST get off of oil as fast as we can; the link Tim # 134 provided to Jim Woolsey’s speech seemed to say it best. What are some grass root ways to help America get-it-done? Start a GM Volt lottery where all money collected would purchase Volts? Whatever the way, if a patriotic nerve is struck, it would accelerate the process.

[Reply]
Paul-R Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:32 pm

I think Chevy will be able to sell every Volt they can make for at least the first two years if the price is under $40K. That’s because I believe the initial Volt will be a much higher performance vehicle than what has been emphasized so far. An electric 160HP motor is probably going to accelerate like a 200HP engine at legal speeds, and that’s a lot of grunt for a car that small. It even managed to impress a long-time motor-head like Bob L.

People will pay for that kind of performance from day one. The people who want a cheaper street-legal golf-cart version will probably need to wait a little longer, or buy a competing product.

[Reply]
Jason M. Hendler Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:50 pm

As far as marketing is concerned, GM should emphasize that the Chevy Volt uses NO gasoline for the first 40 miles, then gets 55 mpg (or whatever the number ends up being) after that. Add a couple basic facts - 0 to 60 time, top speed, number of passengers, then, just sit back and let the buyers flock in.

I would NOT show any people in the Volt ads, because I think many different types of people will buy this vehicle for different reasons. You do not want to alienate buyers by portraying the vehicle as intended for some other type of person.

[Reply]
MetrologyFirst Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 1:54 pm

DaveP @151 is on target. I mentioned the same thing over on the forum side.

Yeah, you might have a higher car payment with a Volt vs. something else, but your reduced exposure to wildly fluctuating gas prices, particularly if you drive a lot of miles, can help you plan your finances accordingly. It’s something called A BUDGET.

[Reply]
eurobiker Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:12 pm

to ALL of the guys who are crunching the math to justify costs…

USA Today announced just a couple days ago that nationwide, the cost of electric is expected to increase 29% - JUST IN NEXT YEAR ALONE.
Locally, XCEL is predicted something more in the range of 38% - 50% - JUST NEXT YEAR ALONE.

50%!! IN ONE YEAR.

It’s still cheaper than oil and cuts the umbilical cord with OPEC, but needs to be a factor for this movement to be economically feasible.

Sometimes, electric rates do go back down a bit, but generally it is an upward trend. You better get that into your math models. If you’re going to predict $7.00/gal. gas, you better compare it to an equivalent increase in the cost of electricity.
All of this is due to the fact that natural gas and coal costs (which powers most of our power plants) are increasing drastically.

Lastly, the infrastructure maintained by the power companies is currently not ready for everyone to power up their vehicles by plugging in. I’m not sure their even factoring the potential demand into any current demand models. Can you say “rolling brownouts”?

Not trying to pi$$ on y’alls parade, but an “electric” culture has many issues to be worked out. I’m all for it, but there a re a ton of these issues that will need to be addressed to be successful.

[Reply]
Tim Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:13 pm

If you could not attend the 2008 Brookings Institution & Google.org Plug-In Conference on June 11-12, here are all the videos:

http://www.stefanoparis.com/piaev/WhyWeNeedPlugIns/2008.06.11PlugInConference/2008.06.11PlugInConference.html

Grab a Soda and some popcorn. Get ready to learn…

[Reply]
MetrologyFirst Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:13 pm

Paul-R @ 156

Evidence of the lack of importance to the ROI argument is simple automotive history. Look down your street, too. If ROI was that important to people, we would be seeing rows of identical cars. We don’t.

ROI is WAY over hyped. All the other purchase drivers you listed are on at least equal footing with ROI to most buyers. I think “quality” is probably the key driver. I just hope GM can continue to dispell the “poor quality” myth so many import owners like to cling to. That will be key to the acceptance of the Volt. Along with its style and design.

Its funny, even when quality surveys show GM’s going up, Toyota’s going down, some STILL cling to the old data. People hate facts getting in the way of a good story.

[Reply]
Jeff Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:15 pm

Well, let’s see “Who will buy a Chevy Volt?” Maybe the 1st question should be “Who will NOT buy a Chevy Volt?”

1. Folks that are not in the price range of the Volt.
2. Typical shadetree mechanics and folks that prefer non-dealer service. Unless the vehicle can be serviced easily. For example, the ability to retrieve vehicle diagnostics without special tools. Keep in mind…some folks enjoy working on their “overpriced” car.
3. Folks with adverse interest in new tech on cars. If GM can get these folks as Volt customers anyways, it could be a win.
4. Folks that can not change their way of thinking on electrical batteries. Can anyone name “JUST ONE” electrical device other than a hybrid car that the battery lasts for 10 years or longer? And hybrid cars have not been around in the USA for 10 years yet.

Please feel free to add to the list…

Another “demographic” question from several years ago in the USA was…”Who will buy an automatic transmission car?” Manual transmission cars still sell quite well in other parts of the world. It is called marketing and proof of concept…something sold the USA on an automatic transmission car. So much so…that it is difficult to find a manual transmission in several models.

What will sell the USA on E-REV cars? The best marketing is “word of mouth” which takes time also.

I wonder if the Chevy dealers will be a hinderance or helpful in the marketing. The sales department will need to learn about the new vehicle…or NOT. The service department will need to train and equip techs to service the vehicles.

[Reply]
Kevin Highland Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:19 pm

I want this technology…my problem is that I’m 6′4″ and 350lbs. I’m not a small boy. I want this in 1/2 ton pick up truck like the Chevy Sliverado, Dodge Ram 1500, Ford F150 size vehicle. Something I can get in and out of with out having to bend like a pretzel. I’ll live with a slightly decreased Battery Range and Less efficient ICE/Generator MPG. As has been said car purchases aren’t necessarily a logic thing but I don’t care how cool the car looks I want to be comfortable in it.

[Reply]
noel park Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:26 pm

#10 CBK:

It that’s your first post here, it’s a darned good one. Thanks for it. Welcome. Blog On.

#156 Paul-R:

Right.

Plus which, if you factor in the true cost of gasoline and diesel to the public, including the externalized costs, all of these ROI calculations instantly change. $10-12 billion a week in Iraq, somebody said above? Somebody pays for that guys, or will when the debt service on the loans comes due.

[Reply]
dude Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:31 pm

PICK ME!!!!
seriously if the price is right! ill buy 2!!!!!

[Reply]
carlos Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:36 pm

Since the Volt is not an EV1, what are going to be the maintenance, there is a gas engine and this means tune ups oil change etc. ???????????????

[Reply]
TBK Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 2:39 pm

I would think it would be the same but the intervals will be greatly extended. More based on hours of operation.

[Reply]
Dave G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 3:03 pm

#160 eurobiker,

Yes, electric rates will go up, but that’s not the real point. The idea is to break oil’s monopoly on transportation.

Once driver’s have a choice of fuel for their cars, then market competition will drive down the price in all sectors. Specifically, I predict electric companies will drop their night-time rates significantly to attract more plug-in customers. And, as the world transitions to plug-ins, oil prices will decrease. If they can figure out how to make cheap bio-fuels from switch grass or algae, that will compete as well.

The Volt can run on 3 different fuels:
- electricity
- gasoline
- E85

Having that kind of choice is a BIG DEAL. It will create competition in the marketplace.

I like James Woolsey’s analogy with Salt. Here’s the end of his speech:

“Salt was the only way to preserve meat until the very late 1800’s. It had a monopoly. Believe it or not, countries went to war over salt mines. If you had a salt mine, you could dominate your neighbor. It was a very big deal.

“Today - salt on the table out there. Do you know where it came from? Are we salt independent? Do you care? Does anybody care, unless they’re in the salt business? Of course not. It’s a useful commodity that does some things, and we buy and sell it in international commerce. Nobody dominates their neighbor anymore because they have a salt mine.

“We need to do that to oil. And we can do it with electricity the way electricity affected salt monopolies in the late 1800’s. We can, we should, and we must, as a major national priority, destroy oil’s monopoly. Absolutely, totally, completely, destroy oil’s monopoly.”

[Reply]
Tim Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 3:10 pm

Once cars are powered by electricity, think of how the Solar PV companies will trip over each other to provide the best home panels at the lowest price.

Energy costs will follow the computer chip market model down, down, down…

But first we need to break oil’s strangle hold.

[Reply]
fred Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 3:17 pm

#6
You don’t buy a Volt for a payback. You buy a Volt to support some American jobs and to stop having our military being sent to die for oil. Any retard can start a war. We need to become dependant on only the energy we can produce. That’s why I will buy a Volt. I don’t ever expect it to pay for itself. No car I’ve ever owned payed me back.

[Reply]
Dave G Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 3:22 pm

#170 Tim says: “Energy costs will follow the computer chip market model down, down, down…”

Computer chips haven’t really gotten cheaper. They are about the same price, but they do a hell of a lot more. E-REVs will probably do the same.

Also, solar panels don’t really need electric cars to be viable. If we had home solar systems that would pay for themsleves within 5-7 years, sales would go through the roof … (pun intended).

[Reply]
Tagamet Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 3:29 pm

Statik on last thread said:Of course, generally praise comes on the back of success, or going above and beyond expectations. I honestly feel GM has done nothing but back peddle on deadlines, specs and price since they day they announced they were going to built it.
+
Let me ask you a serious question Tag. Are you happy with the direction of the Volt the last year?

There’s a practice in shrinkery which is simply that very advanced, complex behaviors can be established by the process of “successive approximations”. When your child starts to TRY to stand - you applaude, smile, cheer, whatever is positive to that child (or adult). Once the first step forward is established it is rarely rewarded in favor of the next higher step or link in the chain. As each link is forged the next APPROXIMATION, the next step forward is cheered. If you wait for your child to ride his bike before cheering……
As to the last year. I’ve been cheering constantly. Yes, I’m more than satisfied. How about you?
Be well,
Tag
PS Sorry for the cross post, but I’d hoped for a reply.
PPS Got on WBZ again last night. Hoping Lyle will be invted to be a guest on the Dan Rae show.

[Reply]
mr_roboto Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 3:42 pm

Keep dreaming.

Volt is another GM vaporware. Every year, it’s the same story; another miracle GM product will restore GM to its former glory: the Cobalt, the new Impala, the new Malibu, the lambda triplets, the Aura, the new CTS, the new GMT 900 trucks, and on and on.

And every year GM disappoints with ever shrinking market share and cash burn from hell.

Why do y’all think the Volt will play out any different?

My forecast:
1) The Volt will not be affordable for the masses
2) Expect nothing that looks like the concept Volt. The real Volt will look more like a Prius than the concept.
3) Expect delays
4) Expect lame excuses from the top management.

Q: Why does it always happen like this with GM?
A: No one at the top are held accountable for all the boneheaded moves they make, from the Fiatsco, to betting the farm on the GMT900’s instead of designing a competitive small car (don’t say Cobalt -> even Hertz thinks the Cobalt is crap).

Anyways, keep dreaming guys.

[Reply]
Statik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 3:48 pm

#173 Tag

I actually did read your last post….but it had too many big words, and I’m not good in comparitive analogies. Hehe. I actually thought your question was retorical. I assume you want me to answer this part, “Yes, I’m more than satisfied. How about you?”

No.

Was that good for you? No? Hehe. You want more? Well, I’m not surprised. Two minutes in heaven is better than 1 minute in heaven. (fotc). I see your analogy, and raise you mine!

I see what you were shooting for with the ‘applause for the infant son’, but I don’t see the Volt as my infant son.

If I did see the Volt as a adolescent (I’ll call him “Timmy”), I see him as such:

Timmy is 13 years old and is a growing boy. He was described to me by his mother, who is very proud of him. His mom (GM) told me he was a boy genius, great at sports, has a girlfriend and has 2 jobs after school, as well as sings in the church choir, and he would be great to babysit my kids or cut my lawn.

Turns out my own son knows him and he tells me he just flunked grade 8, the ’sport’ he is great at is “Super Mario”, no one has actually ever seen this ‘girlfriend’ and he sings at the church choir because if he doesn’t do his community service he goes to ‘Juvie’

/oh yeah, that felt so good

[Reply]
Andrew Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 3:59 pm

On electric prices — i just looked at solar for my house and the amortized cost after CA rebates, over 25 years, assuming an 8.5% HELOC, as a fixed cost of 23c per kwH vs my current average of 17c per KwH. If you take into account the market leaders (SunPower) statement that they plan to have the installed price drop by 50% by 2012 (they just announced their gen 3 panels and are currently on target with this goal) , then you get to 12c per kwH by 2012 fixed for 20+ years. So, moving to electric for cars might cause you to have to make a decent sized loan for solar panels but it will certainly drop your cost to about 12 - 15c per kwh for the life of the car.

[Reply]
Jackson Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 4:07 pm

Dave G (#172):

The material that computer chips is made from, purified Silicon crystals, has a fairly stable cost: what we’ve done is reduce the size of the circuit elements printed on them; that’s true.

If you make solar cells out of purified Silicon crystals, there are only a few ways to bring their costs down (thinner slices, special coatings, etc), since the sunlight is always the same size

However, the analogy breaks down when you begin discussing new materials. The most likely PV cell game-changer is something called CIGS: Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenium. Solar cells made with it are not quite as efficient as Silicon cells, but they will be cheaper for a lot of reasons. For one thing, they can be printed on rolls in a continuous process which doesn’t require vacuum or high temperatures (as Silicon does).

Honda announced their CIGS energy spin-off company last year. IBM announced a partnership with another Japanese firm yesterday.

While PV cells don’t need the electric car to become more successful, the two technologies will still have synergistic relationships:

The more people put Solar on their roofs to sell excess power to the utilities, the less harmful it will be to plug an EV in during the daytime (as opposed to “off-peak” after 10:00 pm).

As high-performance, multi-junction cells (not to be confused with CIGS, which are low-cost cells) make their way through the lab, the eventual promise of car-top cells will help their commercialization along. Less sunlight falls on a car than a house, so higher efficiencies become more important than cell costs for this use.

Interesting note: The only reason we’ve had PV cells for most of their history is that they’re byproducts of the computer chip industry, which adds it’s own flavor of irony. For the first time, we’re starting to see Solar cells produced solely on their own merits.

[Reply]
Tagamet Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 4:11 pm

Statik,
So by your reckoning, GM is an adolescent nare-do-well ? Sorry, but throwing out a diversion from the actual question won’t work. (Yes that was good for me).
You recognize no progress in this project? I can’t buy that. I don’t think most of the people here buy that either, given that we’re here chatting about a production vehicle a “fur piece” off.
If you really aren’t cheering for your infant, unless and until every step is perfect, I feel for the kid. (and don’t believe you’d raise your child that way).
Be well,
Tag

[Reply]
Soco Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 4:12 pm

However, I drive about 25k a year, all in trips that would be under 40 miles between home visits, and with enough time in-between to charge up (40 miles in the morning, 40 miles at night… I work at home but drive 20 miles away twice each day with 9 hours in-between).

This would be a savings of about 4k year, based on a car that gets 25 MPG and gas at $4, both of which are very conservative (savings would most likely rise to 5k a year, 6k a year etc…. each year). This adds up to a HELL of a lot of money. In 6 years the entire car paid for itself, and I would never have to stop at another gas station again… ever.

This is a no brainer for someone in my position. People like me will be lining up for this car without question.

And this is all without mentioning curbing our oil addiction, air pollution (nuclear where I am, yes, waste is an another issue but….) and I do understand my electric bill will go up.

Lastly, the car looks cool, which is another factor.

[Reply]
GM Volt Fan Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 4:31 pm

Intel is actually more involved with the solar industry than I thought.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-9971003-54.html

Intel has some VERY smart people and their company is well managed. If any company can help make solar power more successful it’s Intel. IBM and Applied Materials are getting into solar in a big way too. That’s three of America’s very best big companies. Big Oil, Big Coal and the other fossil fuel companies are probably not too happy about these 800 lb. gorillas getting into the energy industry.

The solar power industry ought to be rocking and rolling in a few years. I hope those guys can get into the electric car industry and help out GM and their suppliers wherever possible … especially with energy storage technologies. We need them too. The electric cars of the future could be VERY lucrative for a lot of companies … especially the high tech companies like Intel.

I hope to charge up my Volt with some inexpensive solar panels on my roof in the next few years. Later on in the next 5-10 years, I’d like to be able to inexpensively store that electricity from my solar panels into “garage batteries” that can quick charge my 300 mile all electric range future Chevy electric car in under 10 minutes. That would be revolutionary. Complete independence from fossil fuels …. oil and coal and natural gas. It would be a no compromise, good performing car that runs on inexpensive juice and doesn’t have a tailpipe to emit nuthin’ into the atmosphere. One of these days we’ll get there. Hopefully before 2020.

[Reply]
bruce g Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 4:37 pm

#44RyanP,
Thanks for the reference to the site, I had forgotten the turbine locomotive effort and that blows my whole argument away.
Oh, the frailty of mankind!

[Reply]
Rockyroad Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 4:38 pm

If GM wants to sell the Volt … they should price it compeditively with what the Prius sells for .. $22,000 to $24,000… BECAUSE that is where Mitsubishi, Toyota, Nissan, Honda … etc will price their EVs ….

[Reply]
Rashiid Amul Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 4:46 pm

I will buy the Volt, but $30K or less. If not priced for the masses, I will buy something else.

[Reply]
Tagamet Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 4:58 pm

The recent plugin conference is available through autopbloggreen.com. The speech by Jim Woolsey (former CIA chief) was GREAT.
Be well,
Tag

[Reply]
GM Broke Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 4:59 pm

Here is a link to recent article post at the Seattle Times. The following line near the bottom of the story says it all:

“Lutz said the first-generation Volt will retail for about $40,000 and generate no profit for GM.”

http://tinyurl.com/3hmokm

That’s right NO PROFIT !

Also, I heard yesterday that GM is so hard-up for cash that they need a $10 billion loan ASAP, and will use existing properties for collateral. Yikes!

[Reply]
omegaman66 Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 5:13 pm

Statik you never fail to amaze me with you downward outlook on the Volt. You complain about everything and make false statements to back up your pessimistic outlook.

Now you are bringing up all the moved deadlines and such when that hasn’t even happened. Basically GM is pretty much staying with the deadlines they had set at the beginning. End of 2010! Still hasn’t moved. Range… still no change there either. Price… has slipped but can you really expect to nail the price when most of the components for the car didn’t even have factories built for them yet?

Anything short of exceeding perfection with you is viewed as a horrible failure. Despite you outlook the Volt is on schedule.

[Reply]
RB Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 5:41 pm

#136 Dave G — In his excellent posts, Dave says
“…Bob Lutz seems to indicate that initial selling prices will be much higher than volume cost analysis would indicate. There are several possibilities why GM might want to do this:
1) GM is afraid costs won’t come down when volume ramps up
2) GM is afraid volume will never ramp significantly
3) GM doesn’t have enough cash to cover the volume ramp period
4) GM is angling for Congress to pass rebates
5) GM doesn’t care about Volt unit sales, they just want “green washing” ”

Possibly all of these are true at varying degrees of emphasis for the people making the decisions at GM.

Whatever the reasons, I think GM will ask whatever the market will bear. My guess is that the Volt will be priced at the upper end of the Chevy model range, $45K to $55K, and at the ismall volume made in the first year will easily sell out, maybe with further dealer markups.

For GM, they are ICE people who are taking a big risk in the transition to electric, so it will be encouraging to them and a good thing for us all if they see some good prices (from their perspective) on the first EREV. Then they will make more models in higher numbers.

[Reply]
RB Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 5:58 pm

#189 omegaman66 — Actually I think Statik is right. Over the last year the Volt’s appearance has gone backward, the range has gone down, performance targets have been lowered, battery prices seem to have come in higher than expected (hence no battery contract yet) and the projected Volt MSRP has gone up. There’s not much left of the original spec sheet except the Volt name.

The one thing we are left with (and that I do admire) is GM’s ‘true grit’ in keeping on going with the Volt project despite the multiple setbacks. If they make it past gen1, maybe things will look up for gen2.

[Reply]
Paul-R Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:09 pm

I agree Omegaman66, but I think Statik just likes to piss on GM. It’s like his hobby. For example, he enjoyed pointing out (yet again) that GM stock is down today. So is the whole market … duh. But I tend to ignore his negativity, since I still don’t see any other major automakers (not mom-and-pops) promising to mass produce (not fleet lease) a general purpose electric-drive sedan (not a street-legal golf-cart) before the end of 2010.

[Reply]
JLG Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:22 pm

Maybe not many people know the Volt will be the first car with this all electric drive train! Like toyotas synergy drive look for gm to adapt the technology to fit with other platforms and vehicles. Imagine a super hot CTS w/vdt that right there is the future.
Volt Drivetrain Technolgy

[Reply]
Paul-R Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:29 pm

I think RB has caught Statik’s negativity disease … lets see:

“Over the last year the Volt’s appearance has gone backward” … even though RB has not seen it yet.,

“…the range has gone down,” … even though the electric range is still 40 miles. Oh wait, maybe he meant gasoline range. Who cares about gas range… now it’s the same as every other car on the road.

“…performance targets have been lowered,” … Performance targets? A 160 HP electric motor should feel like a rocket in such a small car.

“… battery prices seem to have come in higher than expected (hence no battery contract yet)” … hmmm, here we have some speculation (that would not even be GM’s fault) being passed off as fact.

“… and the projected Volt MSRP has gone up.” … uh, no it didn’t because we don’t know the price yet, and there never has been a projected MSRP. Just a like-to-have-it-below 30K statement by Bob Lutz.

“There’s not much left of the original spec sheet except the Volt name. ” … Yeah, that seems completely wrong. It’s still an electric drive high performance plugin sedan with a 40 mile electric range and an unlimited gasoline range that can greatly reduce the need for foreign oil.

Yup … no doubt about it … RB has caught Statik’s negativity disease. Bummer.

[Reply]
ThombDbhomb Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 6:36 pm

Any other car can use its shape to appeal to people’s vanity. Volt 1.0’s primary selling point has to do with AER. So, the first Volts need to push that advantage. For the Volt, “aero” has a lot to do with AER (AER-o?). But, let Volt 1.0 look like a jellybean if that is what it takes to get AER. Tweak the jellybean for style where it won’t make too much aero difference b ecasue GM knows people want style. The Volt’s descendents will sacrifice AER for appearances, especially when battery technology advances. You’ll get your cool car eventually. Let’s take giant baby steps.

[Reply]
Terry K Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:35 pm

Who will buy a Chevy Volt ?

It may not be me, if Bob doesn’t get the Volt out soon. I was promised 40 miles electric, at a price “nicely under $30,000.00″. That’s what I signed the waiting list for. Now, the price is at least $40,000.00, without tax, without dealer markup, and could be much higher in 29 months.

My Honda Odyssey just hit 100,000 miles, and I will be new car shopping in fall of 2009. A car with much better gas mileage, naturally. And I’m not the only one who needs a new car.

Every month the Volt ISN’T for sale on the dealer’s sales floor, GM is losing business. The most popular gas sippers out there are the Prius and the Civic. Every one of these models sold is a lost GM sale, profit forever gone down the drain. Toyota can’t keep the Prius in stock, it sells so fast. Both the Prius and the Civic are better than the Cobalt, per every car buying guide I’ve read so far. Which GM model is selling so fast that dealers can;t keep them in stock ? (Answer at bottom).

I have to make a choice soon. I can’t choose a Volt if it isn’t for sale yet. That’s why I tell Bob - Run ! Run with the Volt as if your life depended on it. Run like the devil himself is behind you, and wet T-shirt night at Hooters is in front of you (can’t think of a better incentive).

Hell, I’ll buy a production mule - these gas pains are killing me. (grin)
——————————————————–
Answer: If you answered “none”, you’re right !

[Reply]
Statik Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 7:52 pm

#18 Omega

I love you…you know that. I’m not even going to retort, because the next thread is way more exciting, and I’m sure you’ll be working hard.

But you really need to go reread the first 200 odd threads on this site. Production was not Nov 2010, it was not dumb downed, it was not 10K copies and it was “under 30K”

You can say I’m making stuff all you like, but I’m not. I’m sure if I went back and pulled all the links for you, you’d still tell me the same thing.

Side note: I feel the board coming over to the dark side. Yes, use your emotions Luke…let it flow through you.

[Reply]
LB Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 9:11 pm

Who Will Buy a Chevy Volt?

Me.

Of course….If it’s great looking, of excellent quality, and reasonably priced.

[Reply]
Jim I Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:12 pm

I’ll Never Give In To The Dark Side!!!

Help me Obi-Wan Lutzobi - You are our only hope!!!

[Reply]
JonP Says:
June 18th, 2008 at 11:15 pm

Cheese & Rice

Guys here’s a few things that if your still holding onto you should just go buy a prius and stop already.

Before i start i want to say I love the Volt, and can’t wait for an opportunity to buy one.

1. It’s not going to be under 30K, not even close, at this point 35K would excite me. Since probably 50% of cars on the road where i live (central NJ) cost more than that i don’t see a problem. Not to mention the dollar value and inflation.

2. It will be out in 2010, but you can bet most of us won’t even have a shot at buying one, if gas prices keep going the way they are, you’ll be lucky to get one for 50K (dealer markup, not GM). Most of us will be more realisticly buying one in mid-late 2011.

3. If you want an econobox for 15K than go buy a elantra, there crap and we all know it. The Volt will be the most signifigant, technologically advanced car on the road, with the ability to put money back in your pocket every week.

4. If you have a disposition of meet your deadlines or i’m out, then bail now, leaps and bounds don’t go smothly, this isn’t a movie. There are very rich people that will spend alot of money to stop/sabotage/out price the electrification of the automobile.

[Reply]
Peter Finland Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 1:13 am

In Europe gas costs 6 Eur = 9, 2 dollars. Here that car would be exciting!

[Reply]
Andreas Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 5:23 am

Yes, bring it on/out!

40K USD would be acceptable for a large amount of people in Sweden too, not even considering that our gas cost 2.3 USD/litre and diesel at 2.5 USD/litre (that would be 8.8USD/gallon for gas and 9,5USD/gallon of diesel).

More then US sitizens has their eyes on this car.

[Reply]
Dan P. Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 5:48 am

wow.

[Reply]
Joe OBrien Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 7:26 am

I don’t expect them to lose hugely on the volt, but you got to admit, they waste HUGE amounts of money on other ridiculous cars they sell. If they price it reasonably, they will sell tons of them. Vehicles that require NO gas for 80% of the time we drive them in an era of $4-$5 gasoline. It is a no brainer. But price them too high, and it will be a different thing, the amount of people that will spend $40,000 versus $30,000 on a vehicles is HUGE when it comes to the general population.

They waste millions and millions on the corvette, camaro, hummer, cadillac, countless SUVs and then complain that they want us to pay more because they want to recoup their losses some. If they want to avoid the losses stop blowing all the money on the vehicles that simply are not selling very much. I’m sure other than collectors, not many people are going to be using the 500 horsepower camaro for a daily driver when gas is almost $5 a gallon.

I just don’t want them to expect the consumer to suck up their losses by being charged extra, when it is fully GM’s fault for being in such hard times.

I will buy one cash when one comes out, but don’t expext me to open a vein to buy it because of your business practices. Simply sell it at a respectable price, and the volumes you sell will do more for making them profitable then raising the cost by $10,000.

Sadly GM, I hope you realize that if you don’t make it profitiable, them someone like toyota, Honda, or Subaru will come along around the same time frame, and make it affordable.

This is your chance at a turaround, don’t fail now, like you have all other times in the past.

[Reply]
Raymond Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 7:42 am

Dear Bob,
You want to save electricity? Change all the Volt’s lights to LEDs. They are now available in a wide range of intensity and consume a fraction what regular light bulbs do. I don’t know if they are bright enough for headlights yet (but I do have a powerful spotlight at home, that uses one single LED) but it could work with multiple LEDs. Radios for “normal” use consume about 5 -10 Watts headlights about 60…

There you go, that’s my two cents worth for today.

[Reply]
Tagamet Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 8:53 am

“On June 7, a Prius converted to a PHEV caught fire. The converter, Hybrids Plus, notified the owners of all of its converted cars and began an investigation. The batteries came from A123Systems, which had no role in approving the battery pack or system design, but has cooperated in the investigation. To date investigators have not definitively found the cause of the incident.”

I’m GUESSING that A123 provided the battery and were not aware of EXACTLY how it’d be used. In other words they didn’t approve the receiving system? Later in the article it explains that the problem was in the wiring, not the battery and that
” The batteries performed well and did not contribute to the problem; nothing that happened should lead to second thoughts about batteries
or about well-designed, carefully tested PHEVs.”

[Reply]
asymtote Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 9:35 am

$40k, gee, maybe Leno or Tiger Woods would, I think I’ll just walk. The plug in Prius due out in ‘09 is going to be half that price. Is it any wonder Toyota is outselling GM world wide? How ’bout something that gets 50 miles on a single charge and costs as much as a Camrey or an Accord? What did GM do? Did they re-assemble the marketing research group that came up with the Edsel? Maybe they should put their heads back in the sand and keep building the H2.

[Reply]
Crumudgin Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 11:49 am

The main concern I have is that they cheapen the vehicles interior or other aspects to get the cost as low as possible. I suggest they make it extra nice instead and raise the price even more if necessary. This is an image car hopefully leading to a mass production lower cost car in the future. Early adopters with the cash resources to pay for the latest new thing will want to show it off. Early reviews have to be positive. Quality has to be top notch. Don’t shove it out the door without testing. Better to be a little later(year or two) then to be poorly received. If it looks great/cool and is less affordable to the average person then so much the better. Let the early adopters pay for the next generation. Same approach Tesla is doing, actually. Don’t skimp on the acceleration either, no first time adopter/higher net worth buyer wants a sluggish car that makes then regret their purchase every time they try to pass a Honda Civic. A smaller battery with 20 mile electric only range is a good idea for those that want the car mostly for fun, image and acceleration.

[Reply]
Noah Nehm Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 11:57 am

JEC: There’s nothing wrong with your math, per se. The savings are not monumental, and there is a purely economic argument that would have you buy something else (like a diesel Jetta).

Here are a number of things to consider, though.

1) With a Volt, I can hop into the diamond lane and move around in rush hour traffic more quickly.

2) If we see a gas price superspike, gas shortages, and/or 1970s style gas lines and rationing, then it will be very nice to have a Volt. Think of the extra price as insurance against this eventuality.

3) By buying a Volt, I would be pushing forward the eventual transformation of a gas based transportation system to an electric one. That seems to be a more stable system due to the multiple options for electrical production (nuclear, hydro, wind, coal, etc). This is better for the country.

4) I have a Highlander Hybrid now. I’m not going to be saving much money compared to what I spent on it. Still, I love the car. I love the pickup that the electrical motor affords from a dead stop. I love being able to cruise a mile at slow speeds on electricity alone in the EV mode. I love the CV Transmission and how it delivers power. It’s the best car I’ve ever had, hands down, and a joy to drive. My guess is the Volt will be very similar - smooth, quiet, quick. What’s not to like?

[Reply]
LazP Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 1:17 pm

You guys can do all the calculations you want on payout but the fact is much simpler. For overall fuel cost calculation purposes, the primary driver is the number 40 (or whatever actual battery capacity is achieved). The car will be most economical for those (maximum fuel cost savings) who drives 40 miles or less per day with the Volt. So those who make fuel cost calculations for payout calculations should use this as the optimum possible savings, i.e will give you the maximum cost saving available between gasoline cost and electric overnight recharge.

[Reply]
E Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 4:41 pm

I’m keeping my eye on the Volt. I’m a 20’s male and never even considered an American made car. Some may see that as unpatriotic, but frankly, the Japanese cars are built better and save me more money in the long run. That’s the American Way.

I’ll be in the market in 2011/2012, it’s between the Volt and the new Prius, so GM may yet win over a customer.

Also watching Honda and Nissan’s new hybrids as well, once they announce them!

P.S - won’t be a first adopter at 40k.

[Reply]
RealityChecker Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 7:23 pm

I understand GM’s marketing is motivated to portray the Volt as industry leading technology… ahead of the competition but, in reality the 40mile range is not an accomplishment worth boasting about. The Zenn is a completely zero emission, zero noise vehicle currently in production and rapidly making strides to full range (200+ mile per charge… full charge in 5 minutes) and the cost is nowhere near GM’s target… it is much more cost effective. EEstor and Zenn are leaps and bounds ahead of GM. The proof of concept only recently achieved by GM trails behind Zenn and Tesla (although Tesla is far too expensive) As for the foreign auto makers GM won’t be leaving many in the dust. EEstor is not hype and will make the Zenn the longest range and most affordable industry leader in plug-in EV.

GM marketing position is not reality based.

[Reply]
mark rock Says:
June 19th, 2008 at 8:56 pm

I currently am employed as a sales consultent for larry king chevrolet in kannapolis north carolina. I am not great at spelling so dont critisize please. I see people come in all the time and dump 20 up to 90 grand on vehicles. So for a vehicle that is going to grab the oil companys buy the nuts and help us all out in the long run i am for it. If you go on figuring about the long term payoff you will rack your brain dont forget the tax breaks you get!!!! you take a 40 grand car average for suvs trucks and most luxury cars these days makes it look like pennies dont it!!! i dont see a big loss when you buy a volt unlike everything else. Mark Rock

[Reply]
Matt Says:
June 20th, 2008 at 2:37 am

JEC–

fbalaska is on the money, though I think his calculation on the actual cost of gasoline is on the low side. Comparing costs of vehicles based on the retail, out of pocket operating costs is precisely what the US and international oil industry want you to do. By focusing only on a retail comparison, you can ignore the federal subsidy on gasoline in the form of our US military budget, as fbalaska notes.

Taking an even larger view, if we are really interested in efficiency and return on investment, how can we justify continuing to support a system that requires the movement of liquid via ship, rail, and trucks to thousands of distribution points across the country? Is that more efficient than plugging your car in when you come home? No way. Maybe a better way to put it would be to ask ourselves if we were looking at this in reverse, if electric cars were the norm, would we abandon them for a car that cost thousands less in the showroom but would require us to stop at a pumping station every few days for a major cash outlay? Would we give up our electric cars for a car that was cheaper in the showroom but would require us to send our children to war to protect the “cheaper” fuel to be found overseas in lands where we are hated? Would we give up plugging in at night in favor of taking loans from the people selling us oil and from other foreign governments just to preserve the illusion for the consumer that the fuel is cheap?

Yeah, I’ll buy a Volt.

[Reply]
Whistleteeth Says:
June 20th, 2008 at 3:55 pm

For #6 JEC

The payback will certainly be less than 20 years. All PHEV have thousands of dollars less in maintainence than ICE cars. Plus some folks will be recharging their Volts off their solar cell roofs. Plu $4/gal. for gas? In my dreams, it hasn’t been under $4 all year in Northern California. Right now my local CostCo is over $4.50. And AAA is calling a national average at $5.00/gal before the end of summer. In the last two years alone gas has almost doubled. How much more will it cost in two more years?

Sadly (with respect to us middle and lower income folks) $30,000~$40,000 per Volt will be a bargain by 2010.

Easy money, bet on it.

[Reply]
Ron Says:
June 20th, 2008 at 6:20 pm

What I haven’t heard anyone talk about is the fact that the Volt, technically, could be the perfect “any fuel” car.

I mean, it’s basically a fully electric car with an onboard generator that can make electricity from gasoline to recharge the battery and power the electric motors, right?

Well, why does it have to be a gasoline generator? Why not a propane generator … or diesel. Or hydrogen. Or whatever you want it to be? I haven’t seen much information about this side of things, but I hope the onboard generator is accessible and of a standard size.

[Reply]
Paul-R Says:
June 20th, 2008 at 7:26 pm

Ron, regarding alternative fuels for the Volt…

In one of the Q&A sessions with GM (can’t remember which one), GM emphasized the fuel flexibility you described. I think that’s one of the reasons they call their approach “E-Flex”. They picked gasoline for round one, because it’s what they know best, and it’s what most people are familiar with. I think they wanted to minimize the number of unknowns for this first rollout.

[Reply]
Wes Says:
June 21st, 2008 at 8:33 pm

Well I’m out. Should have known the price would be exhorbitant considering it is an American company. I guess I don’t need to wait. I’ll buy Toyaota or Honda or something serious in 2 years.

[Reply]
yves lavoie Says:
June 22nd, 2008 at 10:53 pm

The electric car came first near a century ago but gazoline engine took over;petrol was the cheapest and an easier way to move arround.Imagine a century of electric car development how could it be.The easy way wasn`t the right way after all,time to take the medecine.In europe,the TGV expanded to fill the need of easy access to major cities by reducing congestion,fuel dependency and pollution but still not in the money,infrastructures cost billions and supported by governments,they got no choice.Instead of throwing away billions to defend the not-so-cheap-anymore fuel,governments should invests massively in the electric car,promote it and make the technology accessible to everyone.in time,the whole cost will go down,the actual technology will be more efficient and even cleaner.It won`t be easy but,I believe this is at least a better way.

[Reply]
Dave Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 12:47 pm

How much ROI is gained with a Chevy Corvette over that 15K ICE box-car? You wouldn’t think of wasting your time doing the math because they are not in the same class. But if you compare the Volt to the Prius, or any other 15K ICE vehicle, you’ve done just that. In fact, Chevy’s biggest problem wouldn’t be selling the Volt. It will be keeping the Corvette and Camero sales going while the Volt pwns them. 0-60 times in <3.5 sec. is easy for an electric car to do. You’d need 500+ hp in a regular ICE car to even think of those times. 10K production is miniscule and Chevy will have no problem selling the Volt. I’d bet many of them are Corvette owners tired of getting pwned. Just like the Mazdaspeed3 pwns Mazda’s flagship RX-8 for thousands less. The solution? Mazda limited sales in the U.S. to 5000.

[Reply]
Craig Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:55 pm

Too Bad GM didn’t stick with the EV-1 they had back in 2000. They could be way ahead of the game in the elec. car Market.
http://www.ev1.org/

[Reply]
bc Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 12:49 am

with fewer parts going into a gm volt, why should the price be $40k? If you guys are serious about gaing market share you should produce a $30K vehicle so retirees like me can afford it. $40k is out of my price range even with a $5k ecorebate.
another thing. why not produce an ev suv?Pick up?Hummer? I think your concept is sound but you want too much money……I guess I may look at the plug in Prius. Too bad too, I would really like to buy American

[Reply]
bob Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 11:23 am

Here is another suggestion for reducing out dependence of oil that has a much quicker payback time frame that will also reduce anyones carbon foot print and give you great mileage. Drive a motorcycle!

While driving a motorcycle may not be the solution for everyone, it is an answer to at least 80% percent of the population. Consider this, a 650 2 cylinder kawasaki has a base price of $6,500 which comes to $8040 once you add all the costs of delivery, taxes, title, and licence. This same bike is fuel injected with a 3 way catalytic converter and will give you 60 miles to the gallon when driven easy, or 40 when driven hard and has fewer emissions than even the Prius. You can get up to 80 miles per gallon on a 250cc motorcycle and still be able to travel at highway speeds.

This solution costs way less than the smart for two, and gives you better mileage than the Prius, all without using hybrid technology.

I know this is not the best solution for everyone, only those that do not carpool. If the Volt is ever released, it will be a great vehicle to use to carpool and may become the best option if they can get it down to $25,000 or less.

Until this solution is viable, and I am really hoping & praying that it will be, then I am going to continues commuting on a comfortable 60 mile per gallon two wheeler rather than be the single person in a gas guzzling 12 to 25 mile per gallon real world, if I am lucky, vehicle.

I think GM is finally realizing that its business model needs to change and is taking proper steps to do so.

[Reply]
Evan Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 10:23 am

That 30k number probably needs to be reassessed…I’m pretty sure I’m on there about 3 times and now I need to be off. I signed up when there was some belief that it would be a 5 seater priced around $30k with a 600 mile range.
Now that it’s clearly a 4 seater, likely closer to $40k and 250 mile gas range it’s clearly not a vehicle that will meet my needs.

I’d like to see a new waiting list or confirmation of those already on the list where they can see what the current anticipated specs are and see if they still want to be on it.

[Reply]
N.R Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 11:51 am

Alot of people have commented about only the rich being able to afford the Volt. Being a university student I do not have a lot of money to throw around but even if the Volt costs $40k I’ve worked it out and thanks to a good paying summer job, I will be able to afford one. I’ll just have to give up entertainment for a little while. Lucky for me I’ll be graduating just around the time the Volt will be coming out. This will be a nice first car for me.

[Reply]
greg Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 1:45 pm

I’d love to buy this car to get off the dependence on foreign oil but not to get back on depnding on China and Korea for supplying batteries. Why cant we make the batteries here??

[Reply]
Fran WIlliams Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 8:58 pm

wel, I thought it would be a deal but when I scrolled down and found 30K, I thought here we go again.Guess a horse and buggy needs to come back into society. When I go to the Amish country I say, these are the most fortunate people alive. They ride around in their horse and buggy, and live a simple, wonderful life…..

[Reply]
The Bicycle Of The Future - Undercurrents Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 9:29 am

[...] in our lives. Who knows, maybe someday my electric bike will be parked in my driveway next to my electric car. [...]
John in Nor Cal Says:
July 15th, 2008 at 9:20 pm

I’m 44 years old, make $100K a year with a family. I’ll purchase a Volt because I am a Chevy man. My father was a Chevy man and his father was as well. I own a 2002 Avalanche, a 2007 Trailblazer SS, both purchased new. I had a 99 Camaro SS and my wife drives a 2001 VW Bettle. I have owned several Toyota’s and few Honda’s over the years. I just hope that GM really hits this one out the park and doesn’t screw this up. The stakes are too high no doubt and I am sure the powers that be at GM are very aware of it. I hope this car does well as other cars they produce that use alternative power trains only for the sake of their company, their employees and this country. I won’t be purchasing anything BUT EV from this point forward. I am all done sending my money to countires that hate the USA and what it stands for. I’ll be putting a deposit down as soon as I can. Just in case you Chevy marketing people are reading through this. Next up - is a wind turbine and some solar panels.

[Reply]

Who Will Buy a Chevy Volt?

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