Who Will Buy a Chevy Volt?
Now that GM has approved production of the Chevy Volt, they can begin to focus on what to us may seem obvious. Who will buy the Chevy Volt?
Clearly, I, and the nearly 30,000 people on our waitlist already hope to do so, assuming it is within our means. But since around 15 million new cars are sold per year in the U.S., aside from the quantity actually produced, how many could they sell?
Price point is important, but should we really expect GM to lose money on them especially when times are as hard as they are?
In a recent statement, GM North America president Troy Clarke admitted GM is placing a substantial corporate bet on the Chevrolet Volt.
He said “We think the Volt is a very well-targeted vehicle — right segment, right technology, right time frame. Full speed ahead.”
In other comments at the PHEV conference Clarke also said:
“We want the Chevy Volt to be a commercial success … a volume product. Yes, we want to make an environmental technology statement. But, we also want a car that sells and that people aspire to own.”
He also went on to say this:
“We’re doing research now on who our Volt customers are likely to be, and what their expectations are for an extended range electric vehicle. And, we’re taking those needs into account as we develop the vehicle. For example, most consumers wouldn’t sacrifice a radio for more electric range… so neither will we. We’re actually working with our supplier to find ways to lower the amount of electricity the Volt’s radio will use. We’re creating a vehicle and a business model that will work … and we want to make as few sacrifices as possible, because in the long run, we believe it will lead to even more enthusiasm for the Volt.
Then, we need to build on our positive electric vehicle momentum so that the excitement and pride around the Volt transcends the vehicle, to impact the Chevrolet brand … and eventually impacts the entire company. We want consumers to see the Volt as the game changer it is not only for our business, but for the way the world drives. Once they do, we can build on that success with other creative E-Flex models – but one step at a time.”
Popularity: 7%
(17 votes, average: 4.76 out of 5) 
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June 17th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Knowing GM, whoever buys them, they’ll be beta-testers.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
I will, if I can afford it.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
I wonder if that focus group has seen the fibreglass mockup yet…
Surely someone will talk if they have…
We have ways…
June 17th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
It’s fascinating that 30,000 people want to buy a vehicle that hardly anyone knows about.
I don’t think they will have any trouble at all moving every Volt they make, just like every current electric vehicle maker is moving everything they make with paid waiting list’s.
Even Segway had a 50% increase in sales over last year and those impracticle machines are 5 grand each.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
I want GM to build this car. I gave it to them in 78 I think. I worked on it here at SIU from 74 to 78. The university decided it was a perpetual motion machine and forced me to give up the project. I gave all of my work to GM because I wanted to see it built someday.
I just want to see it built. I want nothing from GM.
Take Care
Arch
June 17th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
I like the idea of a plugin, but the more I look at what the real costs are, the more I wonder if the Volt will really be a high volume production car.
If I pay $35,000 for a Volt and drive 12,000 miles a year, i would guestimate a annual fuel cost of 8,000 miles of electric @ 0.80/40mile * 8000 = $160/year, and then 4,000 miles using range extender at 50 mpg, and gas at $4/gal, would equate to 4000/50 * 4 = $320/year. That would mean I spend $480/year on energy.
Now, If I buy a basic ICE at $15,000 that can get 36mpg, then I spend 12000/36 * 4 = $1333/year on energy.
That means I save about $1000/year on energy. So now I paid 35,000 - 15,000 = $20,000 more for a Volt to save only $1,000/year!
That means a 20 year payback! YIKES…..
So, somehow (And I don’t think this is truly possible), the Volt must have a payback of 5 years or less, which means it should cost <$20,000. I just do not see this happening….sorry.
Maybe someone can see the error in my justification….please!!!!!!
June 17th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
hung (#1):
Anything so revolutionary will make any early adopter a “beta tester,” regardless of who is building and marketing it. As someone who has waited a lifetime for a practical electric car, I like the idea of having an active role in making that dream come true; even though I have no direct say in the actual engineering.
Anyone actually parting with money for something so new is taking a risk, but I would respectfully say that GM is also taking a considerable risk in making this chance available.
Yes, there is cause for caution. There is also cause for hope. The fact is, nothing good comes about without risk, and those who take a chance buying into this experiment deserve as much credit as those originating it, for any positive result.
I’m betting that the positive results will be tremendous.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
And people buy expensive luxury cars becase? To make a statement.
And people buy the Prius over “normal looking car” hybrids because? To make a statement.
And people will buy the Volt because? To make a statement.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
The $4 may be a little light.
I have seen $10 proposed as the cost required to reduce US consumption by 20%.
That reduction in consumption was considered to put a serious squeeze on the oil price.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
My first post. This is regarding the payback of the Volt vs a 36 mph ICE.
IMHO there is a bigger issue at stake than the payback. Think America and
getting off the oil cartel’s hold on our country. I don’t care if it takes 30
years to break even as long as I’m not supporting OPEC. Remember those
guys? They’re the ones who basically dislike everything we stand for. So
keep our money here.
Dismount soap box.
BTW, great site.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Clarke’s comments sound like an excellent plan for the volts world domination.
6 JEC “Maybe someone can see the error in my justification….please!!!!!!”
I didn’t check your math but wanted to suggest another calculation based on $5.00 - $6.00 - $7.00 fuel cost. Does the cost justification work out better with those numbers. Fuel doesn’t stay at a fixed cost over the years.
Let’s also figure a lower maintenance schedule of oil, filter changes for air and oil, plus fewer repairs when running mostly electric. Don’t know how one would quantify all of those incidentals.
10 CBK Ditto!
June 17th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
I’m on the waiting list and am anxiously awaiting the time when I can actually purchase a Volt. Yes, it is going to be expensive. Even if I don’t get an immediate payback on my purchase in fuel savings I will be promoting United States technology and jobs. Gary #8 is right, I’ll be making a statement that I support this concept and that it’s not just about me.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
CBK
I understand the desire to eliminate reliance on OPEC and those associated with it, but to become a high volume vehicle, you cannot expect the average Joe to be able to afford this luxury. And it will take the average Joe to make this, or any car a success.
Somehow it just has to make good economic sense to drop $35k+ on a car. If the justification is that it will make us less dependent upon oil, then that is fine. But, when someone is about to plunk down 35 bills, he is going to have a hard time convincing himself that is all for the good of the country (patriotic or fool?)
Just some thoughts….
June 17th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Jackson#7,
If it was a Microsoft operating system I could agree.
This is an automobile with a century of engineering traditions.
It will not be any riskier than the first Prius ..or the Saturn Vue hybrid.
imho
June 17th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
#6 JEC
40 miles per day * 365 days per year = 14,600 miles
I’m not sure how you arrived at 12,000 miles on battery plus 4,000 ICE. Assuming that this is your daily work commute, consider that you drive on weekends and holidays. Consider also that you may be able to charge during the day as society changes.
All that said, many people do the calculations and think that hybrids are not worth the permium with gas at $2, $3 or even $4 a gallon. Similarly, residential solar or wind power does not make financial sense right now for most people. This is why I feel strongly that we need government support to get us off oil. To me, it is a foreign trade and national security issue. Importing less oil = a stronger dollar. In the words of Alan Greenspan, the invasion of Iraq was, “mostly about oil.” We spend $10-$12 billion per month in Iraq. We can spend a few to get us off oil. Obviously, others who post here disagree.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
JEC #13
I understand your point. I’m on the list for a Volt, but it has to be affordable.
If it is much more than 35K I will have to defer until it comes down, but I
won’t be buying it hoping that I will break even on fuel costs in the near
term.
I just want one… now please.
I cannot wait to see the final physical design.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
Ok, let’s try this one more time with some new numbers, say $7.00/gal gas.
If I pay $35,000 for a Volt and drive 12,000 miles a year, i would guestimate a annual fuel cost of 8,000 miles of electric @ 0.80/40mile * 8000 = $160/year, and then 4,000 miles using range extender at 50 mpg, and gas at $7/gal, would equate to 4000/50 * 7 = $560/year. That would mean I spend $480/year on energy.
Now, If I buy a basic ICE at $15,000 that can get 36mpg, then I spend 12000/36 * 7 = $2333/year on energy.
That means I save about $1800/year on energy. So now I paid 35,000 - 15,000 = $20,000 more for a Volt to save only $1,800/year!
Which would put the payback period at approx 11 years. Still not so good ; (
The other issues with oil changes and other repairs, I would actually expect the price to be higher with the Volt. I have 20 years of engineering experience on electric drives, and the electronics are not cheap and with the harsh conditions that an automobile experiences, I am very concerned that the power electronics will be a problem (The power transistors, actually known as IGBT’s are very expensive). Also you have inverter rated motors (again not cheap), and you have the battery (oh boy that would not be something I would want to pick up at my local NAPA).
Not being pessimistic, just trying to get it all out on the table…
June 17th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
MarkInWI
I do not work 365 days a year….but with the price of gas, maybe I will be soon : )
June 17th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
From the article: “Price point is important, but should we really expect GM to lose money on them especially when times are as hard as they are?”
I think the fastest way for GM to make money on the Volt is to lose money on the in initial 2010 batch. In the end, GM doesn’t really know how much it will cost to build the Volt until they start to ramp up the volume. In other words, I suspect that most of the parts cost figures GM is looking at now will change once unit volume begins to ramp up. This is fairly typical in procurement cycles.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
I will buy it if:
1) I can actually BUY it. (Lease only = no money for GM)
2) If I can actually afford it. I have to see the final price tag in Canada before I decide.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
A sales tax holiday + Fed rebate, as has been many times repeated. The better the technology the hire the rebates, that in reality going to GM, not the customer, from a grateful Country for doing what sorely needed doing. GM should get a Medal of Honor or such and a nice statue in D.C. for all the lives this tech will save.
June 17th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Who will buy/need a Volt?
There is another factor to consider: future availability of gas. If demand is far greater than supply, there may be no gas to buy.
There may be no fuel for trucks to haul the gas in. If industrialization (or a boom in car ownership) occurs in the middle east, they may not have enough gas to export. If a war breaks out in the middle east, there may be no gas to ship.
What would you pay to get to work (hospital, doctor, dentist, …)? An EV powered from the grid is a far safer bet for reliable transportation than finding or affording gas. Our world is going to be very different 5 years from now. Our government has known this for years. They just don’t want to panic the masses. Do you know how many of our top official’s homes have been energy self-sufficient for years?
June 17th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
bruce g (#14):
As a matter of fact, the success (or failure) of the Volt concept could very well come down to how well the computer and software functions. If a human being had to directly control the various functionality, only helicopter pilots or systems engineers would ever buy a Volt.
There is no “century of engineering traditions” for Li/Ion batteries of this size, or for a vehicle propelled at highway speeds by solely electric means.
I stand by my statement. It’s risky. It’s also worth doing.
June 17th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Who are the people that buy $45k cars ? It’s probably not the person working the local 7-11.
Should have adopted the “Cobalt with a battery” idea instead (so at least some of the masses could afford this thing).
Nothing but a niche for the rich…
June 17th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Well I won’t be buying one! My wife would kill me.
I’ll be buying two!
June 17th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
#23 Jackson,
Im struggling to think of examples of technology that have been a complete failure.The Hydrogen filled Zepplin was one. I supose that swedish warship that capsized on launch date was another but that was three hunded years ago. Then there was the Titanic that was considered to have sub standard rivets,probably didnt matter except that it hit and iceberg on its maiden voyage..
But mostly , well engineered machines perform to expectations
I think risk is generally overstated because it sells newspapers.
An example of overstated risk would be the forecast Y2K disaster of the begining of this Millenium. I stocked up with batteries and peanut butter and nothing happened.
But who knows….
June 17th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Welcome to being part of a paradigm shift CBK.
Be aware this site is very addictive. You have been warned! Therapy may be required.
Nick, the second hand Segways with a new Li Ion battery are NZD 8,000 here. So they hold their value pretty well. I expect the Volt to do the same.
Jackson, brings a whole new meaning to the ‘blue screen of death’.
hehehe.
Cheers
June 17th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Well, the real cost of gasoling today is approx $10/gallon for Americans. I’ve spent over twenty years in public service to the country with the US Air Force. Nearly all our deployment destinations were Middle-East bound to protect the oil highway. The massive trade and budget deficits are largely tracked backed to America’s insatiable oil addiction and our waning ability to compete in light of this addiction. Grimly, one can predict the body count for Oil will only worsen if we don’t get off OPEC oil. It’s only the beginning of Middle-East turmoil as the world looks to fanatical destinations to supply a “must have” energy source. Our enemies are getting richer and more capable of menacing our country because of the riches flowing from our addiction.
The agonizing part here at home is educating America that choosing to create American jobs by using electric power sources, and foregoing exporting our jobs and dollars to Overseas Oil barons is better for us all. The American taxpayer is subsidizing the world without understanding that on any given day. China, Japan, India, Europe, we largely subsidize protecting their oil with our dollars. From the posts here, I can see that will prove a tough sell to convince American’s to subsidize the purchase of this Volt.
As for me, I’m buying a CHEVY VOLT: American-made, American-FUELED.
June 17th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Just build the damn car already!
GM will tease us to death before the car hits the road!
June 17th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
It looks like GM has done a nice job of building a unique and useful product. Right now, the most important thing is not to price it outside of the market.
Everyone knows that early adopters are willing to pay a little more for the product. However, the window for the ‘cost is no object’ crowd closed when the Prius was going for $10K over list price. Then, the Pruis was the only game in town if you wanted to show your environmental cred. Now, hybrids are available from Toyota, Ford, Nissan, Honda, and even GM. By the time that the Volt comes out, both Toyota and Honda will be flooding the market with hybrids under $25K, and the average Joe may not understand the difference between the Volt and the Prius, limiting the market for the number of people willing to pay $10K extra for the Volt.
In the end, the Volt is still on the chassis and much of the technology of the Cobalt replacement (Delta chassis). That’s going to make it tough to walk into a Chevy dealer and look at a $35K volt and $18K Cobalt side-by-side.
In the end, GM will find it tough to push the cost differental betwen a Volt and a Cobalt to much above $10K, which puts the price back to around $30K. At much more than that, people will buy a Prius or Honda Hybrid, and the Volt becomes another boutique product (like a Tesla).
Sorry GM. That’s the breaks.
June 17th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
First of all great website.
Regarding the calculations being done above one thing I would note is I don’t think the comparison of this vehicle against a 15k ICE is that valid. I would assume this vehicle would have standard features equal to or better than a typical 20k ICE.
June 17th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
DIRT SIMPLE MACHINE - I recently paid back a friend for helping me convert my 2001 Toyota MR2 to Electric Drive, by helping him change the timing belt and cylinder head on a 1.8L turbo-charged VW beetle. It’s unbelievable how many custom moving parts go into that VW, and in comparison the AC induction motor drive system we installed in my car is dirt simple; it has one moving part (four more if you count the tranny gears and the wheels). The complexity is all in the electronics, which in mass quantities is really cheap ($5 microcontrollers and $25 IGBT transistors).
Along with the engine, we pulled out manifolds, headers, pipes, and mufflers, gas tank, alternator, radiator and cooling system, intake ducting, filters, engine control unit and miles of wires, ducting, hoses, gas-lines etc. So it’s clear to me that a reputable manufacturer should be able to knock out EVs for $6-7k plus whatever they get the batteries for. GM is spending alot now on a 56 kW generator for the Volt, but I think that will get simpler (maybe 20kW - 2-cylinders and alot less weight) as the battery technology starts delivering 80-100 miles for the same price that gives 40 miles now.
Remember, cost was the reason for going Lithium instead of a 100lbs heavier Ni-metal hydride pack using batteries like those in their 1998-2001 EV1. They must think they can get the battery pack well under $5k (~$300 per kW-hr) since a comparable NiMH pack would be about $6-$8k. So there is potentially ALOT of profit in this kind of car, and if it’s in time to be the only car of its kind in the world they will want to AND SHOULD get premium bucks for it.
Personally I hope they laugh their way to the bank for the next decade. Anybody else buying up GM stock? Go visit Scott Trade and make enough money to buy one of these overpriced beasts; It’s the American thing to do.
June 17th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
JEC
For u guys that calculate oil prices at $4 / gallon, know that across the border here in Canada , gas is currently at $1.489/L, meaning almost $6 per gallon people.
Look, I drive a cobalt and it cost me $65 to fill up with premium this morning (cobalt ss requires octane 91). Imagine the guy that drives an Uplander let’s say.
It’s about time this car comes out!
Electricity here is at 5 cents/kwh in Montreal; so about 300$ a year for pure EV at 20,000 kilometers.
Compare that to the $2000 I have to spend on gas… much better!
I don’t care if there’s a 5-6 year payback period. Oil prices will keep on increasing and this payback period will decrease exponentially.
All this to bring you complete independence; not like a Prius where you still have ti fillup to drive around.
June 17th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
I agree that there should be a federal tax rebate funded by either Carbon Tax credits or a windfall tax on the oil companies. These electric cars wil change our world in many ways. More computerization and networking of the cars systems will be seen more rapidly with more emphasis on electrical systems and not on ICE technology. More interfacing with the electrical power grid and transfer of electricity back and forth between the grid our houses and the cars.
I have a 2000 Ford Ranger EV, OEM electric vehicle and I love it. It’s only drawback is the range. It’s electronics have been extremely reliable and is going on eight years old. No oil changes, really no maintenance at all except for a water pump. I smile whenerve I drive it passed a gas station, I can’t wait to get my Volt.
June 17th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Nasaman
Any idea what this tech would do for battery range?
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/06/air-products-aw.html#more
June 17th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
My thought is the same as several posts. Will GM price this to mass production and beat Toyota to the lead, or price this so Toyota can make the mass production move and win the day - again. I note, Toyota and the Japanese auto industry today are being heavily subsidized by their government for battery technology for automobiles. They are preparing to win this war while our politicians remain committed to a Republicanesque hands off approach to the market. I suppose they believe the Middle-East sheiks will cut us a break. Bush is over there on bended knee begging often enough. Was that what Adam Smith mean’t - a free trade Monopoly?
Let’s get the Volt out the door. Subsidize the model it if that’s what it takes to lead us toward energy independence and American jobs for our auto engineers, lay workers, even miners pulling coal up to generate electricity and putting up electricity farms here.
June 17th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
swimdad623 #30:
Just because the Volt will be built in a Cobalt platform doesn’t mean it will be the same car for thousands more. All car manufacturers successfully use platform sharing for various models (mainstream and luxury) whose selling price differs by tens of thousands.
June 17th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
I think Toyota will buy one.
June 17th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
For starters I don’t think comparing this to a $15K car is the “same sheet of music” car to car.
This will be much more than an econo box Hyundai or Suzuki.
Not all buyers for this car are $15K buyers.
Those that want
New exciting technology
Freedom from OPEC controlling their pockets
Freedom from Oil Greedy #@**! companies
A Cool Car
and many, many more reasons
Will buy this car.
Instead of dropping $40 or 50K on a small BMW, Benz etc….
Will drop it on this bad boy.
Thats your buyer for the first Volts and they will sell out.
After the proverbial ball gets rolling and costs come down the econo box electric car will be here.
Do not make it look like a geeky Prius.
No whimpy skinny girl scout small diameter wheels.
Make it bad ass. Put your style in it Bobby!
June 17th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
I wonder why in all the cost comparisons of “payback time” on price per gallon/cost of car equations never bring up the fact of why people buy cars. A car is not a logical decision. If it were we would all be driving Honda Civics or something like it. Most Americans would not be driving Ford F150 pickups (literally the best selling vehicle, foreign or domestic, truck OR car for over 15 years!!!!) Nor would BMW or Mercedes sell cars or Cadillac because what is the “logic” of buying such a car to get you to work or the grocery store?
I have faith in the Volt as a CAR (not as a politically correct “green statement”) because one, GM builds cars (i.e. is not a startup, e.g. Tesla nor some kit car or conversion outfit) and two, Lutz is a true “car guy.” He has a big enough ego to bring about a car that will NOT go zero to 60 in 14 seconds. The Volt will be a real car with, great styling, inside and out, that will be fun to drive and will good if not great performance. It will be a Chevrolet equivalent of a BMW 3 series. OH, AND BY THE WAY, it will get the equivalent of 150 miles per gallon.
Forget about the “pay back” equations. All you have to ask is, “How will this look in my driveway?”
That’s what sells cars. Logic is just another excuse you use to convince your spouse the car you really want is the car you are going to buy.
Get it?
June 17th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
JEC-
People routinely pay 25-30K for a Prius when they could be getting a Cobalt. The Prius is a high volume car and Toyota can’t even keep up with demand. I agree with your economic assessment for the most part, but buying a car is about much more than finding the cheapest way to get from point A to point B. The Volt represents a transportation revolution in terms of energy independence, and I would bet that a lot of people will pay extra to be a part of it.
June 18th, 2008 at 12:02 am
Lets look at another business model… the iPhone.
Early adopters paid $500 and $600 for a phone.
Apple then lowered the price by $200 after only a few months and give $100 refunds to early adopters.
They captured 16% of the smartphone market with one product in less than a year.
A year after releasing the iPhone Apple introduces a new model that has twice the memory and more than double the download speed for half the price.
Care to speculate how much of a market share they get?
The point is that the price WILL come down and performance WILL go up. Everyone is focusing on those first cars off the line. Just chill, everything will be cool.
June 18th, 2008 at 12:08 am
JEC, with all due respect, I see two flaws in your ROI analysis.
First, you should be comparing vehicles of similar size and performance. I’m skeptical that the hypothetical ICE car in your example exists. I think a real ICE car will either be more than $15K, be smaller than a Volt, be slower than a Volt, or get a combined city/highway mileage significantly below 36MPG. I think your comparison would be more interesting if you used a real-world car like a Civic or Corolla, with a price adjusted for 2011 model.
Second, ROI is not the only reason to buy a vehicle. A Tesla and a Prius would both fail your ROI analysis in a similar fashion, yet they are considered successes. The other purchasing motivations (extensively discussed already) will cause the Volt to sell. And that volume will eventually lower the price to where your ROI analysis may eventually favor the Volt.
June 18th, 2008 at 12:09 am
#26 bruce g:
“I’m struggling to think of examples of technology that have been a complete failure.”
You need to do a web search on ‘The Museum Of Retro Tech’ and read all about just how often and easily technology can fail. It’s fascinating stuff.
June 18th, 2008 at 12:20 am
Dave G # 19
“I think the fastest way for GM to make money on the Volt is to lose money on the in initial 2010 batch.”
**** **** ****
Respectfully I disagree. Simple supply and DEMAND. The biggest fear is that the markup will go to dealers and not the all important GM who spent and SPENT to develop this car and needs to recoup. Dave G., I think you’ll agree that neither of us is likely to get one of the initial 10K releases, or at least I’ll admit I won’t for sure. We need to understand the state of the economy and the fact that the world’s richest economy ABSOLUTELY has people waiting to pay WHATEVER in CASH for one of the first 10K copies. WHY should GM sell these for a pittance? Think! If this goes through, GM will recoup big time and will sit much “prettier” for the second round which is both their goal and most of the general public’s and certainly mine for getting one of these at a reasonable cost. Not necessarily what anyone would have imagined, but we need to understand the business aspect of just what it takes for a “for profit” publicly traded company to come full swing and bring a product like this to market. The challenge for GM is how to handle dealerships on this one!
June 18th, 2008 at 12:24 am
#30 swimdad623:
“It looks like GM has done a nice job of building a unique and useful product.”
They’ve built ZIP! They’ve only built an image of a product so far.
“Right now, the most important thing is not to price it outside of the market.”
I agree.
“Everyone knows that early adopters are willing to pay a little more for the product.”
The Volt MUST be competitive for me to even give it a second glance. Otherwise I’ll be buying the electric Smartcar or one of the myriad of other (cheaper) BEV’s that will be offered by the time the Volt comes out.
“In the end, GM will find it tough to push the cost differental betwen a Volt and a Cobalt to much above $10K, which puts the price back to around $30K. At much more than that, people will buy a Prius or Honda Hybrid, and the Volt becomes another boutique product (like a Tesla).”
ABSOLUTELY!!! Are you listening GM?
June 18th, 2008 at 12:34 am
On ecogeek.org they have an article about Honda hydrogen vehicle. 50,000 people applied to lease it at $600 per month for a 3 year lease. There are only 200 available to lease, and I think only in California. http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/1767/69/
So who will buy the Volt?
I guess any of the 50,000 that applied to lease the Honda.
I guess anyone on our list that can afford it.
It won’t be long before our list hits 50,000 probably before end of summer.
ME!
June 18th, 2008 at 12:35 am
.
June 18th, 2008 at 12:36 am
# 46 Thank God your not in marketing. Not being rude at all…but…
Comparing a smart car to a Volt.
OMG…your joking right?
Smart cars can barely do the speed limit up the NYS thruway. Let alone hold a grocery bag. Two completely diametric vehicles.
June 18th, 2008 at 12:41 am
#40 KentT:
“A car is not a logical decision.”
“…Logic is just another excuse you use to convince your spouse the car you really want is the car you are going to buy.”
AIN’T THAT THE TRUTH!! I bought my Chrysler Concord Lxi, my first new car, in a fit of mid-life crisis and am STILL paying for my rash decision. I will not make that mistake again, even for the Volt. With 30,000 on the wait list I’m probably far down the list, and hopefully will be getting a second year Volt, AFTER they work the bugs out.
I don’t care what it looks like in my driveway. I want the Volt to be logically thought out.
June 18th, 2008 at 12:44 am
32 Dr Mark……..
You say, “They (GM) must think they can get the battery pack well under $5k (~$300 per kW-hr) since a comparable NiMH pack would be about $6-$8k.” I agree! In fact, I’ve recently seen two independent, very specific references that make a compelling case for the 16kWh Volt battery pack’s cost in production quantities being MUCH LESS than $5,000 at GM’s cost!
Therefore, my answer to this topic’s question, “Who will buy a Chevy Volt?” is that the FIRST generation of the base-price Volt should cost no more than ~$28,000 …..AND at this price almost anyone who really wants one should be able to afford it!
June 18th, 2008 at 12:52 am
35 NZDavid……
The patents in the reference you give seem to address primarily improvements in the cost and temperature tolerance of a Li-Ion battery as opposed to its energy or power density. Therefore, my initial guess is that the range would not be greatly improved.
June 18th, 2008 at 12:56 am
I think one way to drive cost down would be to bypass the dealership altogether, make the car available online and ship directly to your driveway. Bad for the dealerships (and possibly in violation of contract obligations) but good for the consumer and for GM, whose blood, sweat and tears fuel the whole thing. They could get around the contracts somehow, that’s how corporations operate. Who needs a showroom to sell what so many of us already want without even seeing it?
June 18th, 2008 at 12:57 am
JEC,
I think you are making the wrong comparison.
In early 2009 you will be able to buy Honda’s new hybrid for ~18,000 and get ~55MPG. At $5/gallon and 12,000 Miles/year that is $1090 in gas. That is $530 more per year than the Volt for a payback of 32 years.
If Honda’s timeframe and unit count predictions are accurate, Honda’s new hybrid will have saved over 250 Million gallons of fuel (12,000 miles/year as compared to a car that gets 25MPG) before the first Volt is even sold. It will be nearly 600 Million by the time GM sells the first 10,000 Volts in 2011. After those Volts have been on the road for one year they will have saved 4 Million gallons of oil (assuming 4,000 miles/year @ 50 MPG as compared to a car that gets 25MPG).
By the end of 2012 Honda will have saved 1,047 Million gallons. GM’s Volt (assuming 100,000 units in 2012) will have saved 48 Million.
June 18th, 2008 at 1:00 am
#49 Vincent:
I said ELECTRIC Smartcar which would presumeably have a long range, and be light and have the typical BEV acceleration of 0-60 in <5 seconds, and cost just around the $25,000 mark. THAT is what puts it competitive to a $40,000 Volt.
BTW, I’ve test-driven a (gas) Smartcar in Seattle, and believe it or not, it has 2 INCHES more legroom than my Chrysler and will top out at 85 mph on Interstate 5.
June 18th, 2008 at 1:07 am
#51 nasaman:
“Therefore, my answer to this topic’s question, “Who will buy a Chevy Volt?” is that the FIRST generation of the base-price Volt should cost no more than ~$28,000 …..AND at this price almost anyone who really wants one should be able to afford it!”
Hear, hear! Let’s hope that’s true! I might even become an early adopter if that were true!
June 18th, 2008 at 1:11 am
I believe that once the MSRP is set, the price for any future Volt model year will not be less than that. At best we can hope that the battery prices drop enough that they can minimize the year over year price increases.
Where the benefit will come in is when they apply the technology on new models down the road with the second generation cars. We will see the adder for EV get smaller and smaller until the base cars will be EV but at the same price (and potentially less) than the ICE cars.
If I can’t save money from the start on the Volt I won’t buy one, but I do believe the future cars will be cheaper as the technology matures and spreads to other product lines.
On the other hand I believe people will look at the monthly payments as a fixed expense and see the MPG of the Volt as coming from their disposable income. Although it’s not a cost savings, the month to month operating cost will be cheaper and they will perceive it as being cheaper overall. The Prius is not cost effective by any stretch but people allocation X dollars for the payment and then enjoy the cheaper monthly operating expenses. They see that as being cheaper.
No doubt if you have a paid off Tahoe getting 12MPG and it’s in top condition you are financially better off buying gas for it than trading it in and going into debt unless the trade in value can offset the EV cost enough to break even. That’s a tough goal to reach.
I have a limited ability to pay to be green (emissions) as cold as that sounds. Taking a major financial hit to save the planet isn’t in the cards for most people.
June 18th, 2008 at 1:12 am
GXT 54 (amongst others):
It drives me crazy when people post all their number calculations with fuel saved, break even times, etc. It’s boring to read.
Remember that as some people posted earlier, a car purchase is primarily an emotional decision, not a logical one.
June 18th, 2008 at 1:18 am
Yeah, I tell my GTO that every day although I know this is my last hurrah for a muscle car.
June 18th, 2008 at 2:25 am
Who will buy the Volt? The off the cuff answer is that probably everyone would like to buy one.
But to determine a true demographic, we would have to have real information. Then you can figure out who will come to the dealerships to make the purchase!
So give us the detailed pictures, specs, pricing, availability, and warranty information, and then you will hear directly from those that WILL buy the car, and those that WON’T…..
And I find it almost impossible to believe that GM does not have this all worked out already.
Like I said - a long 29 months to go!
June 18th, 2008 at 2:54 am
Great innovation sells and sells easily. I would expect batteries to continue to improve much the same as the microchip and it won’t be long until everybody gets the bug. Not only will drivers save on gas, it will be a big plus for the environment.
June 18th, 2008 at 3:12 am
GM, read Nick #4 again!
Just like Bryan # 12 said, me too!
GO GM ! (Let me know when you’re accepting deposits!)
June 18th, 2008 at 5:34 am
The comment on the efficiency of the radio reminded me that I have not seen anything addressing how much of the 40 mile range is consumed by running the air conditioner when it’s 104 degrees out (not uncommon for at least a month or so in the south).
I can’t see many drivers being willing to drop $30K+ so they can sit and sweat in their eco-friendly car in a suit on the way to their business meeting.
I would assume this will also be an issue where it’s 10 below during the winter.
Have I missed this or have these questions not been formally addressed?
June 18th, 2008 at 5:38 am
Anyone know of any Federal rebates or tax incentives yet or in the works? I bet that will make or break this deal.
June 18th, 2008 at 6:01 am
When comparing a $35K car to a $15K car, one should not only look at the MPG. But also the whole car. If both are the same size and have the same options I could see that. But from what I’m seeing this new VOLT is more like a 25K car. So your estimates are off.
And then there are peope like myself that just want to own a fully functional electric car. One I have been waiting from since the 1970’s. When they make it, if the dealerships don’t mess it up, by upping the MSRP with one of those fair market markup price things some of the do, to make more money, I’ll buy it.
June 18th, 2008 at 6:05 am
I’ll buy one, if I can afford it and I don’t have to lease the battery.
June 18th, 2008 at 6:07 am
#17 JEC,
The $20K you save buying a traditional economy car could be invested, reasonably safely, in the stock market for 5% dividends and would pay you $1K/year. You should figure that in.
June 18th, 2008 at 6:33 am
#51 nasaman
Could you supply the references that say 16kWh will be $5000 = $312/kWh?
If that turns out to be true, the Volt will be economically viable with a very reasonable payback period.
June 18th, 2008 at 6:35 am
I will buy one!!!
Send it as soon as possible to Germany.
We pay around 8$ per Gallone and it is rising every week, no Joke!
And with the strong Euro this Car will be cheap.
So PLEASE send a few!
June 18th, 2008 at 6:37 am
What kind of people will purchase (?)
Hard working middle class like myself, people who know we need to start somewhere and somehow to find a way to move away from fossil fuels…
I can remember back in my 8th grade year when I learned in depth how an internal combustion engine worked, and that the first words out of my mouth in science class were “how barbaric!!…our cars run on controlled explosions?” I remember feeling let down, that we were not more inclined to have a better more efficient form of propulsion…
Now my time has come, the Volt’s time has come…that makes us a perfect match…I am one who will buy!
Johnnie
June 18th, 2008 at 6:42 am
Who will buy this car?
Everyone that can. Why?
Electric Drive is very fun to drive.
Its quiet.
Its fast.
It doesn’t require gas.
Many opportunities to plug in for free (this won’t take long, ex. work, family and friends houses, starbucks, malls)
Much less maintanence (windsheild fluid, and tires)
Easily upgradeable
What is all this worth to you?
Once this car hits the roads, even if its just a few of them at first, it will start to turn heads, make conversations and get people fired up. I don’t think there is any way GM can keep up with demand for the 1st 5 years. Hopefully they realize it fast and ramp up production as fast as they can.
GO GM! GO Volt!
June 18th, 2008 at 6:42 am
To: GM
From: Brad’s wife
I told my wife that her next car was going to be a Volt. She was totally on board with the idea, but she said it had to LOOK COOL. She said if it looked like a Smart car or Prius then no deal.
June 18th, 2008 at 6:54 am
Lyle’s post asked (1) “Who will buy the Volt?” and it went on to ask (2)”should we really expect GM to lose money on it?”
I’m not sure these questions are posed in the best way. One aspect is that we have to guess (or GM has to tell us) how many they can make. Assuming they are able to make only 800 or so per month in the first year, the car is going to be in short supply. In that case GM can price it at $45K to $55K where Corvettes are and still sell them all just in CA, I imagine. The people who will buy the Volt will be relatively high-income business and professional people, certainly not the average Jane or Joe. If the Volt is the attractive car we are promised, the Volt40 still be will sold out, most likely, to people who want to be the first on their block.
On the 2nd question, GM is a corporation and is not going to be pricing anything to be nice or according to what we expect. They are going to set prices as high as they can and still sell the number they decide to make. They are not going to price the Volt below the cost of production of each individual one (because if they have to do this, they will stop the production line). The question then is how much margin there can be over the production cost. That margin is what has to flow back to cover the development costs and corporate obligations. Statik has advised that GM margins are in the range of 20 to 40%, and I’m expecting the Volt, as a hot car at first, to be nearer to the top end of the scale.
I think a more interesting question about sales is to imagine that in a few years batteries remain expensive but there is adequate supply, 100K per year and up. At that time, how much of a premium are people willing to pay to get an EREV car rather than a standard ICE car? First, I think they are willing to pay a premium. They might want an EREV out of curiosity, to avoid buying expensive gas, to be environmentally friendly, or whatever, but they will pay more.
How much more? My guess is that most customers are willing to pay $5k to $10K more than they would for the ICE version of a similar car. This amount will require a $50-100/mo higher monthly payment, but will be offset by lower gas costs. The excitement factor will be the kicker. At this level, the potential market is huge — probably every person buying a car in the USA, if a similar EREV is available for comparison.
June 18th, 2008 at 6:59 am
On the price issue… What are people paying for the Prius? $25K-$30K? The only new car I have seen advertised for $15K is the basic Smart car with no A/C.
If a Smart car with no A/C fits your needs, go for it.
I’m a homebuilder and I have a Ford F-250 diesel ($4.79/gal). Gas car drivers ask me how much it is to fill-up and I tell them $100 and that I haven’t filled-up in 3 months because the damn diesel pumps turn off at $100! Yes I am looking into making my own biodiesel but back to the point and off my rant.
When HDTV’s first hit the market they were $8k. Now 5 years later they are $1,500 at Walmart. The Volt will start dropping in production price as soon as they start mass producing them. The unknown is demand. (Econ 101 - SUPPLY VS. DEMAND = PRICE)
June 18th, 2008 at 7:04 am
WARNING: THIS SITE IS ADDICTIVE
ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK!
June 18th, 2008 at 7:04 am
Brad G
Is that the instructions she gives to young men looking for women to date? Or does she think some things are more important than looks?
cars are appliances, with wheels.
June 18th, 2008 at 7:05 am
#32 Dr Mark says: “GM is spending alot now on a 56 kW generator for the Volt, but I think that will get simpler (maybe 20kW - 2-cylinders and alot less weight) as the battery technology starts delivering 80-100 miles for the same price that gives 40 miles now.”
I don’t understand this.
First, I thought the ICE and generator were mature technologies for GM. Low risk and relatively low cost.
Second, I don’t understand how a 20KW ICE genset would work. Maximum output of an ICE never the most efficient. For example, the Volt’s ICE peak power of 53 kW will rarely be used, only in extreme conditions. Peak efficiency will be at around 30 kW, which is what the car should require at 65 mph slightly uphill. See here for details:
gm-volt.com/2007/08/29/latest-chevy-volt-battery-pack-and-generator-details-and-clarifications
By the way, I would love to hear more details about your conversion. What battery did you use? What size induction motor? How does it drive? It would be great to hear more real world experience on electric drive.
June 18th, 2008 at 7:14 am
I will be surprised if I am able to get one of these when they are first released…cant wait to see how things play out and if being on this waiting list truly gives us any kind of step ahead of the next guy (or girl)….
I wont be able to pay cash for it but I’ll have a real nice deposit
Anything over $40k and I’ll be forced to wait (I just wouldnt want to hear the wife “You paid WHAT for this thing??”)
The other variable for me is that I lose my job for being addicted to this web site!
June 18th, 2008 at 7:25 am
#51 nasaman says: “I’ve recently seen two independent, very specific references that make a compelling case for the 16kWh Volt battery pack’s cost in production quantities being MUCH LESS than $5,000 at GM’s cost!”
Nasaman, please tell us the references.
The only reference I have now is the Tesla Roadster battery pack. Unlike GM, Tesla uses the same batteries that are used in laptops, so volume discounts on these batteries are already in place. Last year, Tesla leaked the price they pay for the battery pack at $22,000. This is a 53KWh pack. So using this as a reference, I would estimate (16/53 * 22K) or around $6600 for the Volt’s battery pack in volume.
Note that, since Tesla is using standard Li/Ion technology, their pack cooling and safety would need to be more robust, which they have stated to be true. So the pack overhead on the Volt may actually be a bit less.
The Volt is built on the same platform as a Chevy Cobalt, which retails for only $15K. Given that the battery is around $6600 in volume, I’m hard pressed to figure how the Volt should cost a lot more than $25K retail, once volumes ramp up.