Look Out, Here Comes Toyota: Plans to Mass Produce Lithium-ion Plug-in Hybrids in 2010
Apparently the push of rising gas prices, and GMs success so far with the Volt has been too much for Toyota to tolerate.
Their President Katsuaki Watanabe told reporters in Tokyo that the auto maker now plans to roll out plug-in hybrids powered by lithium-ion batteries in 2010.
In a joint venture with Matsushita Electric, the maker of Panasonic products, they will begin producing lithium ion batteries in 2009, and mass producing them in 2010.
This is a radical departure from Toyotas previous statements in which the president indicated he felt lithium-ion batteries wouldn’t be ready for mass production automobiles in that timeframe. It also is quite different scale than previously announced plans to roll out a small test fleet of nickel-metal hydride battery plug-in hybrids in the US in 2010.
These cars will appear in the U.S., Japan, and Europe. Toyota also indicated a research effort to make new battery that outperforms lithium-ion.
Source (AP)
By the way, for anyone that is interested, I will be appearing on a live national radio broadcast today at 2:30 PM. I will be a guest on the Dr. Drew Show, discussing the Chevy Volt.
If you don’t get the show in your area, it can be streamed live here:
Audio transcripts can be downloaded later here:
http://www.westwoodone.com/drew
[UPDATE: Autobloggreen reports Toyota as saying this news still refers to a limited, leased, test fleet in 2010. Not surprisingly, the Toyota reps don't talk to me :)]
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June 11th, 2008 at 5:59 am
Banzai !
June 11th, 2008 at 6:08 am
Toyota doesn’t say if their plug-in hybrids powered by lithium-ion batteries will be a serial or parallel hybrid. I’m guessing it will be a remake of the Prius, but can’t be sure.
I find it interesting they are targeting the leasing market instead of the masses.
June 11th, 2008 at 6:16 am
Well, to put it in perspective, they are building three new battery factories. Two NiMH with a combined capacity of 1.5 million batteries per year and one Li Ion factory with a capacity of 20,000 batteries per year.
Seems they just want to cover their bets in case the Volt is a winner. If they truly believed in Li Ion why not make more?
Estero: Given the time line they have to be using the Prius synergy drive. They do not have time for a major revamp.
Still as I do nearly all my drving under 62.5mph it would work for me.
Competition is good. Go Volt.
June 11th, 2008 at 6:19 am
Never trust Toyota.
June 11th, 2008 at 6:55 am
Jim #4,
Toyota’s service department has been quite trustworthy over the 87k miles my girlfriend has put on her Prius. We’ve even had it to 3 different service departments (for regular maintenance) and they’ve been universally great. The biggest problem we’ve had with the machine has been a flaky gas-gauge, and they replaced that for fee around 70k miles.
Given how the Prius works, the engineering behind it HAS to be brilliant. And it’s aged very gracefully under a reasonably brutal highway-driving and city-driving duty-cycle.
The Prius is a serious and legitimate competitor to the Volt. Right now, the Prius has the edge, due to the fact that I can actually touch one. The Volt looks like it’ll be simpler (pronounced “could be more reliable and cheper”) and will certainly have more widely acceptable aesthetics. The Volt, were it to exist, would be better than a Prius for my purposes, due to the 40-mile electric range. While the Prius’s hatchback and fold-down seats are surprisingly useful for carrying heavy objects, a Saturn Flextreme (and it’s apparently bigger cargo area) would be much better than a Prius for my purposes. I’m an IT guy pushing 30, and my ideal car is a green&sporty little station wagon.
But, hey, legitimate competition between vendors means that I win.
I really do want to root for the home team, especially now that they’re pushing something other than spork utility vehicles.
June 11th, 2008 at 6:55 am
Lyle, is this new? The only reason why I ask is because I know Toyota had plans to start rolling out Plug-in Hybrids to fleets in 2010. I’m curious if the extent of their “production” plans for that timeframe is still company fleets.
June 11th, 2008 at 6:59 am
Li-Ion batteries will not work.
No wait, Li-Ion batteries in a Serial Hybrid will not work.
No wait, Li-Ion might work.
No wait, we always knew Li-Ion was the right way to go.
Come on Mr. Watanabe, make up your mind!!!!
Or are you just worried that worldwide consumers may just start to think that your hybrid design is now obsolete and you are not ready with a replacement????
The next few years are going to be very interesting…..
June 11th, 2008 at 7:01 am
Their President Katsuaki Watanabe told reporters in Tokyo that the auto maker now plans to roll out plug-in hybrids powered by lithium-ion batteries in 2010.
Is his last name pronounced “wan-ta-be”?
Look who’s playing catch-up…. Toyota…
June 11th, 2008 at 7:02 am
Estero #2,
Given what Toyota has said in public, I’m betting it’ll be a parallel hybrid. They’ve already developed their nearly-magic transmission in order to make the existing Prius work-at-all. Plus, I’ve heard that their corporate culture prefers to continually and incrementally evolve their designs.
So I think you’re right that it’ll be a remake of the Prius.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:04 am
Lyle,
Please let us know the specs on the new Li/Ion Prius when they arrive. Especially the all electric range, and the maximum speed for that all electric range. Knowing the competition will be critical to the success or failure of the Volt.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:11 am
I am sure Toyota had these plans in place for some time, they are just going public now. I would not be surprised if their plug-in was a serial hybrid. Unlike GM, Toyota has the resources to price this vehicle aggressively and take a loss until the technology gets cheaper. I am afraid GM is in a fight for its life.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:14 am
When the manufacturers start lining up to see who can produce the best plug-in hybrid - EVERYBODY WINS.
I have been dying to get my hands on a Volt since I saw the first pictures well over a year ago. But IMO this is great, great news for the marketplace in general. Lets hope this is just the beginning.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:17 am
#5 Luke says:
“my ideal car is a green&sporty little station wagon”
Yes! This is exactly what I want as well.
Gas is over $4/gallon. Combine that with the need to carry stuff. Small efficient station wagons seem like a no-brainer!
June 11th, 2008 at 7:25 am
It’s also possible that Toyota will just pass over the serial hybrid and go directly to quick-charge BEVs using their new super battery technology. If they can beef up the Prius electric drive motor so that it can do 70 mph they would really have no need for the serial hybrid. Any difference at all will be in the batteries. It will probably come down to a cost or catch (a competitor) situation. 2011 is going to be very exciting! I hope our economy makes it.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:34 am
Amen! DC #12 …
There ’should’ be no losers in this race. I would obviously prefer the home-grown Volt over the Prius but the more of these types of vehicles on the road the better.
I’m still holding out hope that the final design of the Volt doesnt look like the Prius. I know the ‘looks’ are not nearly as important as the electrified drivetrains but if the Volt looks like the Prius — I might hold on to my BMW a bit longer before finally giving in (fingers crossed the Bimmer keeps up that long)
One thing I am sure of is that my next car will use electricity in some way and I’m still excited and hopeful that it will be a Volt……
June 11th, 2008 at 7:36 am
This could be a knock-off of the after market plug in hybrid upgrade. You buy the extra battery pack for about 10K and then they reconfigure the car to run on the electric engine up to 40 mph before switching to the ICE.
http://www.pluginamerica.org/
June 11th, 2008 at 7:36 am
[quote] Electricity (Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles/Electric Vehicles). Toyota reaffirmed that by 2010, it will introduce a plug-in hybrid vehicle equipped with a lithium-ion battery, geared toward fleet customers in Japan, United States and Europe. TMC also plans to accelerate development of small electric vehicles for mass production. [/quote]
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/06/toyota-presiden.html#more
So back to where they have always been.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:38 am
Texas,
Why don’t you just disrobe and offer yourself to Watanabe? You have such an obvious man-crush on him.
As for Watanabe, we’ve witnessing him going through the five stages of grief over the Volt:
Denial - claimed it wouldn’t work
Anger - lashed out that GM couldn’t do it
Bargaining - adding a plug to Prius, increasing Prius all electric range, switching to Li Ion ….
Depression - coming soon
Acceptance - coming soon
June 11th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Watanabe….Hmmmm.
Move the letter “n” just befor the letter “t” over to the left 3 places.
Oh Yeah “Wantabe” just like GM. LOL
Wasn’t GM and Yota supposed to be considering something together?? Competition is good. I like our Japanese friends.
I’ll Take USA body designs any day. The Prius is Fugly.
Remember…GM made the Japanese Auto Makers produce Hybrids as a reflex to the EV1. Here we go again. But this time GM is not asleep at the switch.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Toyota is following GM - no other way to put it. GM is using it’s strength of innovation to overtake Toyota’s strength of Kaisan.
To Toyota’s credit, they are pursuing their FCV’s vigorously, but they, as yet, have failed to put batteries and a plug in it.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:54 am
Why is it when GM scales back expectations on price, production, specs. People say, “GM aill surprise us. They are being a snake in the grass”
But when Toyota keeps our expectations in check, then surprises the market it is just, “backtracking, trying to keep up with GM”?
If this was the “moon shot” and we the Volt is the Americans, the Russians just landed on the moon. No way the Volt beats the Prius to market.
You try to explain to Joe Public the virtues of a $45,000 car that goes 40 milesEV, then 350 miles@ 50MPG, over a $29,000 car that goes 10 milesEV, then 1,000 miles@ 85MPG.
The both can drive all EV or ICE.
June 11th, 2008 at 7:57 am
yawn.
The synergy drive, although put to market first, will prove inferior to the E-REV. Yes, this is Eco, giving GM the benefit of foresight. Why?
A fuel cell developer working on direct methanol fuel cells is using serial drive for their technology, because it allows the fuel cell to operate at steady state, and not have to absorb sudden heavy load to move the vehicle. Sound familiar?
By putting the battery and electric motors between the ICE and the wheels, the overall system has the makings of a superior product. Superior meaning less cost, less breakdown, efficiently sized components, easier maintenance, longer system life.
The fact that a Toyota competitor will lower the price of my Flextreme is not a bad development, I might add.
June 11th, 2008 at 8:03 am
After finally understanding the potential for the Volt (the opportunity to greatly reduce oil consumption, yet not suffer from range anxiety), and observing the Volt’s great public appeal, Toymota has decided it is time to start “Moving Forward”.
June 11th, 2008 at 8:06 am
#22 Eco
1) Do you find the Flextreme to be a desirable looking vehicle (as I do)?
2) Do you think that even with a Li-Ion battery that a Prius would be as efficient as a Volt for highway driving as the Prius still relies heavily on the ICE for motion, not just power generation?
…just curious…
June 11th, 2008 at 8:12 am
Toyota is ready to Follow GM’s lead, as always. This time is different GM plans to take full advantage of its developed technology.
June 11th, 2008 at 8:12 am
#22 Statik
I’m going to retort to myself. I posted a little quickly, I’m doing some desktop scratching now, trying to convert Japan’s old 10.15 mode standards…I’d like to change my wager on a new US rating of more like around 65MPG.
June 11th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Whats new here? I thought they were going to offer a Prius with an upgraded interior as a Lexus with Li-ion batteries? Either way it will be a parallel hybrid and won’t be able to compete long term with the volt. Toyota will need to develop a serial hybrid power train and that would take a few years. Hopefully CPI and A123 know something that panasonic does not, leaving GM with superior technology. Imagine a Gen II Prius with Li-ion catch fire! Now there is some bad PR.
June 11th, 2008 at 8:23 am
#21, statik,
Both you and Texas can disrobe for Watanabe - make it a three way - you can be the adapter.
Toyota has a baseline product that can’t easily be developed into a REEV, nor a PFCV, but GM is developing one rapidly. GM announces their intentions, and Toyota lashes out and remains obstinant. GM verifies major components and gets mules running, so Toyota then counters to add a plug, increases all electric range and switches to Li Ion.
See the difference? GM is leapfrogging Toyota, who has completely tooled up for an inferior product, so that Toyota will not recoup their investment. The new CAFE standards will force Toyota to the series hybrid, BEV or FCV, as the Prius isn’t efficient enough to compensate for the rest of Toyota’s fleet.
June 11th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Side issue to what I’m sure will be a very lively debate. (Expecially after I brought up ‘moon shot’…I already regret that, lol).
I wonder how the EPA/GOV will actaully rate the Volt/Prius. Clearly the standard test will prove flawed.
As far as I can tell, the current EPA ratings consists of 5 tests, ranging from 10 mins to 30 mins, and involve City, Highway, High Speed, AC, Cold Temp. No test goes a greater distance than a ’simulated 11 miles’ Wouldn’t this render both cars practically infinity +1?
If the standards are changed to accomodate these vehicles, what do you change it to? Each EV/ICE vehicle will have it’s own strengths.
Clearly there will need to be some kind of new system to accomodate these cars. Perhaps a two tier system? A ‘EV rating’ and and a conventional ‘ICE’ rating? Maybe something like this?
Volt
37.5mile range EV — XX/kWH per Mile (allowing for AC component)
350mile range ICE — 50.00MPG
Prius
9.3mile range EV –XX/kWH per miles (allowing for AC component)
780mile range ICE — 65.00MPG
June 11th, 2008 at 8:52 am
I would have to agree with #28, but I would prefer if no one disrobed.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Parallel hybrid just doesn’t cut it for me. I want to be able to commute without using ANY gas. With parallel, even if you have high MPG, you still NEED gas. Only Serial Hybrid can achieve that and I always felt the Prius is just using battery as a “placer beau”, remove the battery and you achieve almost the same result with the ICE alone, to be able to plug it in won’t change that.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:03 am
#29 Jason M Hendler
Both you and Texas can disrobe for Watanabe - make it a three way - you can be the adapter
This is too far. You crossed a line.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Some of you people are completely detached from reality.
The “Volt” does not exist. Not yet. Maybe not ever. At this point, to say Toyota is “catching up” or that GM is “leapfrogging” anything is ludicrous. Toyota has a car. GM doesn’t. GM is attempting to leapfrog the market but the usual considerations of time-to-market, established share, reputation, cost and the value proposition all apply.
Toyota is already on the way to recovering their investment. Toyota has proven it can field an effective hybrid car in the low $20s and, apparently, make money.
While there’s enthusiasm for the Volt in some quarters, the Volt is very likely to succumb to two problems:
1. Cost to GM and the buyers. When the chips are down and the vehicle is more expensive than a Lexus, the potential customer base will shrink. This is exactly the fate that has befallen the Tahoe/Yukon SUVs. I’ve been admiring one at a nearby dealer lot for 50 days. Since then, it has been joined by two of its younger brothers, now aged 34 and 28 days. GM has now had to put incentives on them. We’ll see how that goes (since the incentives on the standard gas hogs are larger, I’m thinking this won’t help much). In his sketch of the Volt rollout (in which he declined to talk about the volume of production), GM’s Henderson described a very gradual rollout that was clearly constrained by concern over cost.
2. GM’s Quality Rep. There’s a large group of people out there who would not touch a conventional GM product with a 10-foot pole. They’re certainly not going to buy advanced tech from GM. Look at GM’s current hybrid offerings; practically zilch for production and they’ve STILL had to initiate a total recall of a critical hybrid component. The Volt MAY have excellent quality (don’t bet anything you can’t afford to lose on that) but it carries four decades of baggage in the quality department.
3. (Did I say two problems?) Many of the early adopters have already bought in to the Prius. These are the people motivated by something other than dollars and cents and would ordinarily comprise the most important market segment for GM. They’ve had a satisfactory experience with the Prius and the cream of the market, from the Volt perspective, has already built up some owner loyalty. If Toyota is fielding a replacement vehicle that works anything like the Prius, they won’t shift at all. The rest of the market is very much interested in the value proposition. See problem 1.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:09 am
This whole story shouldn’t suprise anyone. Toyota is king at talking out both sides of their mouth.
Focus towards fleet sales? That is probably a good way to introduce another typical super bland vehicle to get the market penetration started. Have to get the lemmings in line before you start leading them around.
“Just look at the light.” Tommy Lee Jones, “Men In Black”
June 11th, 2008 at 9:09 am
The really big question is Honda. We all knew that Toyota would
eventually ape GM. They are an old and tired company run by old and tired executives who are getting sliced and diced by the Koreans.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Jason M Hendler,
Maybe you don’t want a open and civil debate?
“Toyota, who has completely tooled up for an inferior product, so that Toyota will not recoup their investment”
I’m not even going to argue the point at all with this kind of statement. Prius is inferior? The next gen Plug-In will not recoup investment? We haven’t even seen it or know the specs and it is already a money loser?
“GM announces their intentions, and Toyota lashes out and remains obstinant” Why does everything have to have a emotion? Do we need all the hyperbole in your posts? Can’t we just discuss things?
Just go back and read some of your posts and imagine how they are received by anyone not sharing your opinion…start with number 18 here.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Interesting that the article talks about Toyota leaning towards leasing the vehicles in 2010–sort of how GM did it with the EV1–as an experiment to see how well they work in the real world and if it’s a complete disaster, allows Toyota to take back the cars (and crush them?).
And with the mentioning of the cars going to fleet customers in 2010, it all sounds a lot like the news about hundreds of Volts in Spring of 2009 that will presumably be driven by GM staff who will be the “fleet customers”. That makes the Volt project a year ahead of Toyota.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Statik:
You are still seem to think that a LI-Ion version of a plug in Hybrid Prius will be priced the same as the current models. I think that is one of the major flaws in your argument. Putting in a much larger battery pack, and changing to Li-Ion id goping to have to have an effect on the sticker price of the car. I do not think the price difference will be as great as you do.
And as far as John Q. Public, I do not think it will be that hard to make the case for the Volt. “If you drive less than 40 miles per day, you will use no gasoline! But if you want to take a nice long trip to see grandma, the Volt has a small engine that will still get you 50+ miles per gallon.”
The only thing that GM is really going to have to work on will be number of units produced. I think they are going to have to ramp up production much more quickly, because they are going to sell every one of these vehicles that they can make!
JMHO
June 11th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Competition is good in regards to price and comparing technologies to find out which is better. Plug in hybrids is a good compromise, but I’m still waiting for an affordable all EV to get away from gasoline all together (I drive 60-80 miles per day M-F) and all the routine maint. for all the parts that can go wrong.
If Ford makes their hybrid Escape to plug in, then I may get that or a similar compact SUV with 4 wheell drive, but for city driving…where a car wil have enough room and 2WD is all you need…I want all electric.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Hey Luke # 5.. Station wagon? Why not just drop all the electric technology into the discontinued MAXX.. Not a station wagon but a real people and equipment hauler.. My modified 07 MAXX is currently averaging 31 - 33 MPG (Canadian gallon). I would settle for 30 MPC and then 45 MPG after that just to keep the cargo capacity of the MAXX..
Ray
June 11th, 2008 at 9:23 am
#36 Dagwood
You have some good points. I obviously agree that the Prius is a success story and it shows by the fact they still sell everyone they can produce (at a profit) after almost a decade on the market.
My thought with the announcement today. Is the effect it has on future sales to the Volt (past the initial excitement of new vehicle demand…whether that be 20K or 100K).
I’m sure when GM was thinking about the Volt and it’s customer base it was hoping to tap into a good bulk of the over 1 million existing Prius drivers.
They probably figured that these ‘early adapters, ’super-greenies’ or whatever you call them, would be eager to jump to their more advanced platform. (Yes, for the record I feel the Volt is better, more technologically sound…but like lots of things that are ‘better’, they are also more money).
However, with the official news that Toyota will be offering the Prius also as a electric (non-gas assist) range car, coupled with a much higher gas efficiency engine…ahead of the Volt, I think a high majority of these Prius owners will stick to the brand.
For the most part, I would think Prius owners are fiercy adament about the virtues of the Prius, and I would wager their brand loyalty would be incredibly high.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Dave G #13, Luke #5,
“my ideal car is a green&sporty little station wagon”
OK me too and I am on the waiting list in my Opel dealership to get the first Flextreme they’ll put on sale.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:36 am
# 41 Jim I
“You are still seem to think that a LI-Ion version of a plug in Hybrid Prius will be priced the same as the current models. I think that is one of the major flaws in your argument.”
Actually I quoted the price as 29K in my argument, thats 7K higher than the base.
However, I also agree with you that Volt production is way too low. I feel there will be a initial 2-4 year window of pandamonium to get a EV…ANY EV. Both fueled by demand and by the limited supply available from any major automanufacturer.
I am convinced neither Toyota or GM can pump out too many Volts or Prius’ in the first few years, so it would be advantagious to either to ramp as fast as possible. I (personally) believe that GM has no intention of being high volume as long as the Volt is made at the Hamm/Mich plant. Right now they are just trying to get it out there…the ‘high volume’ production will come when the new Euro-flex plant comes online in 2012/2013ish.
If I was guessing max future production of the Volt/Plug-In Prius, (as many as they could pump out) it would be like this
2009 Volt - 0 Prius - 12
2010 Volt - 2 Prius - 10,000
2011 Volt - 8,000 Prius - 40,000
2012 Volt - 20,000 Prius - 100,000
2013 Volt- 40,000 Prius - 150,000
2014 Volt/Prius - as many as the market demands
June 11th, 2008 at 9:38 am
It makes no sense to compare these two vehicles because they can clearly coexist. Both Toyota and GM will be able to sell as many Priuses and Volts as they can possibly manufacture, for whatever price they want (at least for the first few years). The real question is, how will the 2015 Volt compare to the 2015 Prius?
June 11th, 2008 at 9:42 am
I would think most of the early Toyota production would go to Japan, other than maybe a token 10 percent to the US.
I’ll put out a interesting question/scenario (well, at least it is to me):
If today we went to both a Chevy dealership and a Toyota dealership, put $100,000 on the owner’s desk and said, “I don’t care how much it is, or even when you can put my name on a wait list, here is my money, I want a new plug-in Volt/Prius. You can give me my change back when it comes in.”
When do you think you (average customer in the real world) would get it? In either vehicle case, I’m sure it is much farther out than the ‘official press releases’
June 11th, 2008 at 9:45 am
All this is one more reason why the Volt NEEDS (needed, I guess at this point) to be styled and designed for appeal and not forgo the style to get maximum mpc. If GM rolls out an ugly Volt, the game is over before it started. If GM rolls out a beautiful Volt, Prius will look pathetic by comparison.
Others have said here before, a lot of people bought the Prius even though they knew it was ugly. It was the only game in town, then.
I still think a beautiful Volt design will have a larger impact on PRIUS sales than anything else GM could do. The tech will be basically a wash, to the common folk.
Most of the techies already have their Prius. They weren’t going to buy an American car anyway. Now you are entering into the mainstream buyers, looking for help with gas bills. These people want the tech but also want to drive something that looks good. Sorry to disappoint so many of you here, but I predict the Volt’s style and design will drive its acceptance as much as than the technology in the car. There will be lots of options for the tech in the next few years. But all of the affordable, proposed electric vehicles are butt-ugly.
Please Volt, show us something creative and attractive.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:46 am
I see Toyota’s plans as good for consumers. Competition is good. Toyota builds vehicles in the U.S. If they are cheaper and they get great mileage. I have no loyalty to GM. I want to see GM succeed, but the price can’t be over 30k. or I will be going another way. There will be other options by then.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Statik:
I think you are way low on the Volt’s production numbers.
There are only two things that could keep it as low as your predictions:
1. There is a serious flaw in the control hardware/software that causes major delays to correct.
2. There is a shortage of battery packs from the selected manufacturer(s).
Other than that, I think GM would take one of the closed plants in 2011 and convert it to Volt production, Then you would have two plants putting these out in high volume. And then there is the Flexstreme model adding to the total production of E-REV vehicles.
I just think that GM is going to ramp up much more quickly than you…
June 11th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Production numbers of the VOLT are irrelevant after a few years, as I am sure the VOLT concept will eventually be available across all GM nameplates.
June 11th, 2008 at 9:58 am
I just spotted this “Update” on the information above posted on http://www.autobloggreen.com this morning:
“Update: Don’t get too excited yet. We checked with Toyota spokesman Curt McCallister who confirmed that nothing has changed with Toyota’s PHEV plans Since CEO Watanabe spoke at the Detroit Auto Show in January. The Panasonic EV plant will begin making lithium batteries late in 2009. However, 2010 will only see a few hundred plug-in Priuses available to government and commercial fleets for testing. The PHEVs would not be available in higher volumes to retail customers until 2011-12 at least.”
What is going on? Who is correct?
June 11th, 2008 at 10:05 am
#48 Jim I
You could very well be right. If things all go as GM says, I will be.
I as far as I can tell, unofficially I think the expectation range they have put us is in, is something like this:
2010 2,000
2011 10,000-20,000
2012 40,00-80,000
2013 100,000+
I really still don’t believe they will hit production in 2010, maybe early/mid 2011 with limited capacity. I guessed 20,000 for 2012 based on my guess of what their committment could be to the battery manufacturer if they were struggling to get into full production in 2011.
My 2013 guess of 40K is totally random (really it is too far to have anykind of answer). It totally depends on their timeline to move the production to Europe.
I really don’t think there is any chance of them re-opening a closed plant to “stop-gap” on the demand before going to overseas. I think they will use all of whatever funding/cashflow they have to continue ro set-up the next-gen euro plant.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:05 am
I did not see anything new concerning Toyota. They had planned on the next generation Prius having a lithium battery, but thermal runaway issues caused them to backtrack and instead come out with a 2009 Prius with a larger Nickel-metal hydride, with around 2.6 KWH capacity. The extent of the delay appears to be two years, with Lithium battery production being full scale in 2010. So I assume the 2011 Prius will either have, or offer as an option a Lithium Ion battery, and either have or offer as an option a Plug to recharge. The AER might be near 20 miles.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:07 am
#50 Schmeltz
What is going on? Who is correct?
Ain’t that the truth? That could be the theme song for the development of every electric vehicle in the pipeline.
The only thing you can really, truly believe, is when wheels hit the road.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:09 am
The thing frustrating about these cars is we have to wait more than 2 years. Gas prices are out of control now and going up by the hour it seems. We needed these kinds of cars last year.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:11 am
A plug in hybrid is a stupid idea. It will put millions of vehicles on an already stressed/outdated electrical grid. The price of electricity is skyrocketing just like fuel. The cost savings of recharging your plug-in Hybrid over a non plug-in like a Prius will be negligible.
The true answer is a self suficient vehicle that once started and moving constantly recharges the battery by inertia, solar panels, etc
June 11th, 2008 at 10:11 am
The PHEVs are a stopgap solution. They still are gas cars. You can’t drive them out of the garage without starting them up first. They refuse to run pure EV without the engine and catalytic converter warming up first. So the real advantage of the Volt is that you can go up to 40 miles without ever starting the engine. Toyota has already stated that they think that’s the wrong way to go. But partially the issue is the Prius doesn’t have a strong enough motor to drive the car pure EV on the freeway. So if all the conditions are met, the Prius can bu used pure EV for more miles. However, unlike the Volt, there is no possibility that you could never have to buy gas again. With the Prius (and other PHEVs) they are always a gas car first.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Texas # 14,
If they can beef up the Prius electric drive motor so that it can do 70 mph they would really have no need for the serial hybrid.
I’ve driven a 2004 Prius at 70mph on the electric motor. I was going downhill at the time, though. The issue with the electric motor isn’t how fast it can go, it’s how much mechanical-power it can dump into the CVT system. A bigger electric motor coupled with a beefier magic-Prius-transmission shouldn’t be too hard for Toyota.
Theoldguy # 40,
Station wagon? Why not just drop all the electric technology into the discontinued MAXX.. Not a station wagon but a real people and equipment hauler..
Sure, the MAXX is nearly a station wagon by my definitions — something a little squarer than a hatchback, that can old box-shaped cargo. The MAXX is a little bigger than what I have in mind, but not by much. Subaru, Mazda, and Audi all have little wagons that look nice. Alas, they’re all gasoline powered which, doesn’t seem like a safe bet for the next 2-3 years with the volatile oil market. But, yes, a MAXX with an e-flex drive-train would be something that I’d consider! The Flextreme’s styling is closer to my taste, though. The Mazda 3 and Mazda 6 hatchback/wagons are just plain pleasing to my eye. But, I realize that beauty is in the eye of the beholder!
I nearly bought a Subaru Impreza a few months ago — it’s tiny, AWD, and it can tow 1000lbs between the hardware store and my house. I ended up there after I looked at a Ford Escape Hybrid, but I determined that the Impreza had the same capabilities, in a better looking and more Luke-sized package — for $10-12k less. But, then my mechanic came through, and I started driving my old car again.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Can anyone say it’s an all-out assault on oil? This is excellent news!
June 11th, 2008 at 10:16 am
#41 Statik,
While it is too early to start picking winners and losers in the battle for the Prius faithful and would be Prius customers in 2010. We will need to know more details of the final specs. I agree that in concept the Volt has an edge. If the Volt comes out with specs as we undestand them, 40 mile AER and 50mpg thereafter, I think they will do well with the “green” Prius minded customers if Toyota only offers 15 miles or less worth of stored battery energy. For cost conscious only Prius customers, then the Prius will probably have an edge.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Nothing to do with the topic. But GM siled with the supreme court in Canada today to stop the union from blockaiding it’s headoffice…which was expected.
Here is the twist, it has also filed for $1.5million in damages.
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/11062008/2/biz-finance-caw-says-s-surprised-gm-seeking-1-5.html
Ugly.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:18 am
55 Franklin:
Physics cops just pulled you over. You are talking about breaking the laws.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Hrm, lost a post. (Probably the yahoo finance link again).
Totally off the subject but interesting.
GM filed with the Supreme Court of Canada today to officially stop the blockade of it’s headquarters by the union…here is the twist, it also filed for 1.5 million in damages.
A ugly situation to be sure. (Source link blocked…serach engines are your friend if you really want the press release).
June 11th, 2008 at 10:19 am
If the Update posted at autobloggreen.com is correct, then the above article is completely nullified. Plug-in Prii will go government and commercial fleets for testing in 2010 according to the Update. Then, if all goes well, Plug-in Prii will be available (maybe, possibly, not for sure, but there’s a good chance) in 2011 or 2012. Does anyone truly know the facts?
I just read an article recently that Ford is testing a number of Plug-in Ford Escapes with Southern Calif. Edison, to essentially expose any bugs and problems with the vehicles and prove a strong business case to build these things. Shoot, for all we know Ford might beat them all to market! Hey, if they can do it, I say more power to them! Someone mentioned before here that competition is good for the PHEV in that it helps get the battery costs down, and validates the concept to the public. I still am rooting for the Volt though.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:21 am
You people sound like a bunch of flea’s arguing over who owns the dog. The simple truth is that gas is going to be expensive along with food, utilities and anything else that requires fossil fuels to produce. The world demand is growing at light-speed for everything and those that can buy will and those that can’t, won’t! The US is moving into the world economy and we need to learn how to survive or, well the “or” answer can be many things that do not need to be discussed here. Electric cars are coming and we will all find a way to live, just not like we have been living. Change is the mother of invention as we all know and where there is change there is opportunity.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:22 am
I hope Saturn imports the Flex Opal. Saturn was our first new car (bought it after we got married so she would have a dependable car), and we have continued to drive Saturns today (have owned 4). Wife drives the LW300 Wagon and gets 25mpg a tank, and I drive a Ion3, getting 32 mpg. We both drive 54 miles round-trip to work each day (ouch at these gas prices). Plus, the kids are in sports, so we have to drive into town each Saturday. While the Volt or Opal will work for me, she needs a larger vehicle as our 3 kids all go to school in town (we live out in the boondocks).
I hope they rapidly put a larger e-flex vehicle out in 2011 or 2012 as her wagon is a 2001. Luckily (knock on wood) her wagon has been almost problem free with 130K miles on it, replace a couple sensors and the AC compressor. We talked it over and have decided to keep repairing, even a major repair, her wagon until a suitable e-flex Vehicle is available.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:29 am
A couple thoughts…
As mentioned, a plugin-Prius means a bigger battery, bigger motor, higher capacity controllers, etc. In other words … more expensive than the current Prius.
The Volt’s E-Flex architecture scales better to high performance Vehicles than a parallel approach. Imagine an E-Flex Corvette that accelerates as fast as a Tesla, is half as expensive as a Tesla, and is as fuel efficient as today’s Prius. Once E-Flex is proven, that will be simple for GM to do.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Toyota is clearly dazed and confused now that they realize Lutz is playing smart to win back the marbles.
I have enjoyed watching Toyota go on their denial, anger, acceptance trip.
It would be fun to be a fly on the wall at one of Toyota’s executive meetings listening to these guys trying to make sense of how GM got ahead of them on this one. I bet that scene gets into a documentary one day.
GM needs to run like heck because despite what Toyota says for public consumption, Toyota will try to get out in front of GM through faster implementation. That’s Toyota’s MO; let the Americans think it up and then beat the Americans through faster, larger scale, and higher quality implementation.
Hey GM…how does it feel to be the clear race leader innovation wise, and guts wise? My hat is off to every one of you GM employees that are part of the VOLT program. Thank you for making this American proud. I can’t wait to drive my VOLT around with a big smile on my face.
_____________________________________________________
June 11th, 2008 at 10:31 am
#59 Koz #52 Van
I agree, we have alot of semantics here. Final specs would make life alot easier just figuring out what is what. Here are some random important questions.
For Toyota, originally it was to be the NiMH had a range around 10miles (2.6kWH) and a price tag around 25ish.
Does the new decision to move to Li-Ion, keep the same size and therefore increase range and range? Or will they make it smaller with the same specs? Whats this ‘next-gen’ they are already working on? How much better? And when? Is the next gen Prius battery pack scaleable? Can Toyota do a easy trunk pack swap like the Hymotion and instantly be selling 40mile range cars if they want to?
For GM, what will be the real world range of the EV? Is the backup ICE really going to get 50MPG or is that a guess-ti-mate? What is it going to look like? Can you even get one outside of 3 cities when it hits production? How many can they build? And when? Most importantly, what the heck is the pricetag? We have a range of 30K at the ridiculously low to 50K at the ridiculously high,
I fear we will not know these things until the Detroit autoshow. 7 months to go…should be exciting!
June 11th, 2008 at 10:55 am
50 Schmeltz
Sounds like both GM and Toyota have to do damage control on a couple of execs with loose lips. Retreading wonky engineers into cosmopolitan corporate manager types is not without chinks.
June 11th, 2008 at 11:05 am
#60 biodieseiljeep
Laws are made to be broken :>)
One day, we’ll see a device connected around the vehicle’s rear axle or in the wheels that generates electricity (maybe static ?) without the addition of mechanical drag.
One day…
June 11th, 2008 at 11:11 am
#55 Franklin
I disagree with everything you said.
Numerous studies have shown that our current electric grid is more that adequate for night-time charging of plug-in hybrids. Just watch the Nova program “Car of the Future” to verify this. You can watch this online at pbs.org/wgbh/nova/programs.
There is no way a solar powered car would work. The area of the car is too small. The best you can do is a solar array on the roof of your house.
The price of electricity is currently around $1/gallon equivalent, so it’s way cheaper than gas. Plus, the hidden costs of gasoline are enormous. We are funding both sides of the war on terrorism. Foreign oil imports fund the terrorists, and our tax dollars fund the war. Find out more at setamericafree.org.
June 11th, 2008 at 11:16 am
I think one aspect that isn’t being discussed is performance.
Bob Lutz mentioned at VoltNation that the Volt will do 0 to 60 mph in about 7 seconds. In addition, in his recent video interview he said the Volt mule handled very well, due to the battery pack’s low center of gravity.
So when the average consumer test drives a Volt, and feels the acceleration and the handling, he will realize this vehicle is a class above the Prius, whether the Prius has plug-in capability or not.
This fun-to-drive factor alone may be enough to sway many buyers to the Volt, even if its gasoline mpg is not as great.
June 11th, 2008 at 11:17 am
This car will be available *FOR LEASE ONLY*.
“For Lease only = Dead on Arrival”
Knowing what happened with the EV-1, people want to *buy* the cars so that the company just can’t confiscate them at a moments notice.
Dear Toyota;
Either give us a purchase option, or don’t bother with it at all until you do.
June 11th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Toyota also indicated a research effort to make new battery that outperforms lithium-ion.
This is intriguing. I wonder where they’re going with this. The only mobile, rechargable battery technology I know of that outperforms Li-Ion is the Ag-ZnO battery, which would be prohibitively expensive (unless leased). On the other hand, there are improvements in anodes and cathodes for the Li-Ion battery that could greatly improve its output (e.g., Silicon Nanowire Anodes). I’ve also heard of cathodes that allow Sodium to be substituted for Lithium, using metal fluorophosphates, which solves the lithium scarcity problem.
Hmm. We’ll have to see where they’re going. Still, we’re seeing the beginning of a revolution. Battery technology is improving by leaps and bounds, and I’ve even heard that the the direct ethanol fuel cell technology (specifically the separator chemistry) is maturing too. If these technologies prove viable, and (another big if) we can start to revitalize our electrical generation industry using a host of energy sources including nuclear, we’ll be much less vulnerable to oil shocks in the future.
June 11th, 2008 at 11:30 am
I remember saying that I hoped the Volt had a rear view mirror, so Bob could see Toyota gaining on him, and I was right. The world just figured out that GM has a good idea with the Volt. Bob needs to start looking over his shoulder from time to time. The Volt clone wars have officially begun.
Hey Bob, you might want to move up the Volt roll-out timetable a little, hmmmm ?
June 11th, 2008 at 11:33 am
#46 MetrologyFirst
I agree… at least for me… this car MUST be appealing to my kiddie-pool-shallow eye.
You can have your Prius-style…bless ALL of you who drive one but I’m sorry I just cant do it… I wish I wasnt so shallow (and so does my wife)
June 11th, 2008 at 11:46 am
All things being equal, if it still looks like an egg with headlights, count me out.
June 11th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Murray @74
Instead of “shallow”, I like to think of us as actually having MORE depth.
We do not discount the emotional appeal of a car like so many others do. The car is not just a vehicle to us. It displays our taste, or lack of it. Are we a fun person? Cool? Boring? Detailed? Vain? Interesting? Funny? IMO, if I’m spending $20-30K on a car, it better be fun to be in, drive, and have some style. That’s too much money to have no emotional attachment with what you spent it on.
My brother drives old Hondas. Although I don’t like them, he made me laugh when he painted a full roof-sized Japanese battle flag on the roof of his old 70’s Honda civic. That car specifically told people that he has a crazy sense of humor. Which he does.
It still makes me smile today.
OR……….. maybe we ARE shallow! Whatever….At least I’m having fun driving my car. More than I can say for most people these days.
June 11th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Bill Nye McFly #69 and Franklin #55,
If you can break the laws of thermodynamics, you’ll rock the foundations of pretty much all modern science and engineering, and get a Nobel Prize in the process. Before you try, though, read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermodynamic
It would probably be best to start with a perpetual motion machine. After you demonstrate that, the sky is the limit!
Good luck with that, though… Every scientist and engineer I know (and probably every one in history) has attempted to design a perpetual motion machine — usually while daydreaming, but sometimes during more serious pursuits. However, everyone who examines the issue eventually agrees it’s impossible. Those who disagree are encouraged to build a perpetual motion machine and show it to the rest of us. Please build us such a machine!
P.S. It is possible to build a car that runs from photovoltaic solar panels on its roof (and this doesn’t break any laws of thermodynamics), but it would be very very difficult make this work out for a useful everyday car like the Volt. Since the Volt must have a battery anyway, it’s far better to put the panels on the roof of your garage and charge the car through a wire — you can capture a lot more sunlight that way, and you don’t have to carry around hundreds of pounds worth of panels and electrical conversion gear. Energy independence is possible (though expensive), but attaching a generator to the axle of a car will just slow it down and recover a fraction of the energy used to accelerate the car (the way it does in the Prius, and all hybrids/electrics).
June 11th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Lyle,
Is the Saturn Flextreme being redesigned for production? If so, would it be gas or diesel? Gas would be MUCH easier in the U.S.. Are they going to redesign the cargo area and liftgate? I don’t think 2 Segways per family will be the norm anytime soon…
Any info Saturn Flextreme appreceiated.
June 11th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
30 Brian:
Amen. What a scary thought.