Apparently the push of rising gas prices, and GMs success so far with the Volt has been too much for Toyota to tolerate.
Their President Katsuaki Watanabe told reporters in Tokyo that the auto maker now plans to roll out plug-in hybrids powered by lithium-ion batteries in 2010.
In a joint venture with Matsushita Electric, the maker of Panasonic products, they will begin producing lithium ion batteries in 2009, and mass producing them in 2010.
This is a radical departure from Toyotas previous statements in which the president indicated he felt lithium-ion batteries wouldn’t be ready for mass production automobiles in that timeframe. It also is quite different scale than previously announced plans to roll out a small test fleet of nickel-metal hydride battery plug-in hybrids in the US in 2010.
These cars will appear in the U.S., Japan, and Europe. Toyota also indicated a research effort to make new battery that outperforms lithium-ion.
Source (AP)
By the way, for anyone that is interested, I will be appearing on a live national radio broadcast today at 2:30 PM. I will be a guest on the Dr. Drew Show, discussing the Chevy Volt.
If you don’t get the show in your area, it can be streamed live here:
Audio transcripts can be downloaded later here:
http://www.westwoodone.com/drew
[UPDATE: Autobloggreen reports Toyota as saying this news still refers to a limited, leased, test fleet in 2010. Not surprisingly, the Toyota reps don't talk to me 
]
Jun 11th, 2008 (5:59 am)Banzai !
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:08 am)Toyota doesn’t say if their plug-in hybrids powered by lithium-ion batteries will be a serial or parallel hybrid. I’m guessing it will be a remake of the Prius, but can’t be sure.
I find it interesting they are targeting the leasing market instead of the masses.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:16 am)Well, to put it in perspective, they are building three new battery factories. Two NiMH with a combined capacity of 1.5 million batteries per year and one Li Ion factory with a capacity of 20,000 batteries per year.
Seems they just want to cover their bets in case the Volt is a winner. If they truly believed in Li Ion why not make more?
Estero: Given the time line they have to be using the Prius synergy drive. They do not have time for a major revamp.
Still as I do nearly all my drving under 62.5mph it would work for me.
Competition is good. Go Volt.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:19 am)Never trust Toyota.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:55 am)Jim #4,
Toyota’s service department has been quite trustworthy over the 87k miles my girlfriend has put on her Prius. We’ve even had it to 3 different service departments (for regular maintenance) and they’ve been universally great. The biggest problem we’ve had with the machine has been a flaky gas-gauge, and they replaced that for fee around 70k miles.
Given how the Prius works, the engineering behind it HAS to be brilliant. And it’s aged very gracefully under a reasonably brutal highway-driving and city-driving duty-cycle.
The Prius is a serious and legitimate competitor to the Volt. Right now, the Prius has the edge, due to the fact that I can actually touch one. The Volt looks like it’ll be simpler (pronounced “could be more reliable and cheper”) and will certainly have more widely acceptable aesthetics. The Volt, were it to exist, would be better than a Prius for my purposes, due to the 40-mile electric range. While the Prius’s hatchback and fold-down seats are surprisingly useful for carrying heavy objects, a Saturn Flextreme (and it’s apparently bigger cargo area) would be much better than a Prius for my purposes. I’m an IT guy pushing 30, and my ideal car is a green&sporty little station wagon.
But, hey, legitimate competition between vendors means that I win.
I really do want to root for the home team, especially now that they’re pushing something other than spork utility vehicles.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:55 am)Lyle, is this new? The only reason why I ask is because I know Toyota had plans to start rolling out Plug-in Hybrids to fleets in 2010. I’m curious if the extent of their “production” plans for that timeframe is still company fleets.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:59 am)Li-Ion batteries will not work.
No wait, Li-Ion batteries in a Serial Hybrid will not work.
No wait, Li-Ion might work.
No wait, we always knew Li-Ion was the right way to go.
Come on Mr. Watanabe, make up your mind!!!!
Or are you just worried that worldwide consumers may just start to think that your hybrid design is now obsolete and you are not ready with a replacement????
The next few years are going to be very interesting…..
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:01 am)Their President Katsuaki Watanabe told reporters in Tokyo that the auto maker now plans to roll out plug-in hybrids powered by lithium-ion batteries in 2010.
Is his last name pronounced “wan-ta-be”?
Look who’s playing catch-up…. Toyota…
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:02 am)Estero #2,
Given what Toyota has said in public, I’m betting it’ll be a parallel hybrid. They’ve already developed their nearly-magic transmission in order to make the existing Prius work-at-all. Plus, I’ve heard that their corporate culture prefers to continually and incrementally evolve their designs.
So I think you’re right that it’ll be a remake of the Prius.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:04 am)Lyle,
Please let us know the specs on the new Li/Ion Prius when they arrive. Especially the all electric range, and the maximum speed for that all electric range. Knowing the competition will be critical to the success or failure of the Volt.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:11 am)I am sure Toyota had these plans in place for some time, they are just going public now. I would not be surprised if their plug-in was a serial hybrid. Unlike GM, Toyota has the resources to price this vehicle aggressively and take a loss until the technology gets cheaper. I am afraid GM is in a fight for its life.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:14 am)When the manufacturers start lining up to see who can produce the best plug-in hybrid – EVERYBODY WINS.
I have been dying to get my hands on a Volt since I saw the first pictures well over a year ago. But IMO this is great, great news for the marketplace in general. Lets hope this is just the beginning.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:17 am)#5 Luke says:
“my ideal car is a green&sporty little station wagon”
Yes! This is exactly what I want as well.
Gas is over $4/gallon. Combine that with the need to carry stuff. Small efficient station wagons seem like a no-brainer!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:25 am)It’s also possible that Toyota will just pass over the serial hybrid and go directly to quick-charge BEVs using their new super battery technology. If they can beef up the Prius electric drive motor so that it can do 70 mph they would really have no need for the serial hybrid. Any difference at all will be in the batteries. It will probably come down to a cost or catch (a competitor) situation. 2011 is going to be very exciting! I hope our economy makes it.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:34 am)Amen! DC #12 …
There ’should’ be no losers in this race. I would obviously prefer the home-grown Volt over the Prius but the more of these types of vehicles on the road the better.
I’m still holding out hope that the final design of the Volt doesnt look like the Prius. I know the ‘looks’ are not nearly as important as the electrified drivetrains but if the Volt looks like the Prius — I might hold on to my BMW a bit longer before finally giving in (fingers crossed the Bimmer keeps up that long)
One thing I am sure of is that my next car will use electricity in some way and I’m still excited and hopeful that it will be a Volt……
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:36 am)This could be a knock-off of the after market plug in hybrid upgrade. You buy the extra battery pack for about 10K and then they reconfigure the car to run on the electric engine up to 40 mph before switching to the ICE.
http://www.pluginamerica.org/
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:36 am)[quote] Electricity (Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles/Electric Vehicles). Toyota reaffirmed that by 2010, it will introduce a plug-in hybrid vehicle equipped with a lithium-ion battery, geared toward fleet customers in Japan, United States and Europe. TMC also plans to accelerate development of small electric vehicles for mass production. [/quote]
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/06/toyota-presiden.html#more
So back to where they have always been.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:38 am)Texas,
Why don’t you just disrobe and offer yourself to Watanabe? You have such an obvious man-crush on him.
As for Watanabe, we’ve witnessing him going through the five stages of grief over the Volt:
Denial – claimed it wouldn’t work
Anger – lashed out that GM couldn’t do it
Bargaining – adding a plug to Prius, increasing Prius all electric range, switching to Li Ion ….
Depression – coming soon
Acceptance – coming soon
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:39 am)Watanabe….Hmmmm.
Move the letter “n” just befor the letter “t” over to the left 3 places.
Oh Yeah “Wantabe” just like GM. LOL
Wasn’t GM and Yota supposed to be considering something together?? Competition is good. I like our Japanese friends.
I’ll Take USA body designs any day. The Prius is Fugly.
Remember…GM made the Japanese Auto Makers produce Hybrids as a reflex to the EV1. Here we go again. But this time GM is not asleep at the switch.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:41 am)Toyota is following GM – no other way to put it. GM is using it’s strength of innovation to overtake Toyota’s strength of Kaisan.
To Toyota’s credit, they are pursuing their FCV’s vigorously, but they, as yet, have failed to put batteries and a plug in it.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:54 am)Why is it when GM scales back expectations on price, production, specs. People say, “GM aill surprise us. They are being a snake in the grass”
But when Toyota keeps our expectations in check, then surprises the market it is just, “backtracking, trying to keep up with GM”?
If this was the “moon shot” and we the Volt is the Americans, the Russians just landed on the moon. No way the Volt beats the Prius to market.
You try to explain to Joe Public the virtues of a $45,000 car that goes 40 milesEV, then 350 miles@ 50MPG, over a $29,000 car that goes 10 milesEV, then 1,000 miles@ 85MPG.
The both can drive all EV or ICE.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:57 am)yawn.
The synergy drive, although put to market first, will prove inferior to the E-REV. Yes, this is Eco, giving GM the benefit of foresight. Why?
A fuel cell developer working on direct methanol fuel cells is using serial drive for their technology, because it allows the fuel cell to operate at steady state, and not have to absorb sudden heavy load to move the vehicle. Sound familiar?
By putting the battery and electric motors between the ICE and the wheels, the overall system has the makings of a superior product. Superior meaning less cost, less breakdown, efficiently sized components, easier maintenance, longer system life.
The fact that a Toyota competitor will lower the price of my Flextreme is not a bad development, I might add.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:03 am)After finally understanding the potential for the Volt (the opportunity to greatly reduce oil consumption, yet not suffer from range anxiety), and observing the Volt’s great public appeal, Toymota has decided it is time to start “Moving Forward”.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:06 am)#22 Eco
1) Do you find the Flextreme to be a desirable looking vehicle (as I do)?
2) Do you think that even with a Li-Ion battery that a Prius would be as efficient as a Volt for highway driving as the Prius still relies heavily on the ICE for motion, not just power generation?
…just curious…
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:12 am)Toyota is ready to Follow GM’s lead, as always. This time is different GM plans to take full advantage of its developed technology.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:12 am)#22 Statik
I’m going to retort to myself. I posted a little quickly, I’m doing some desktop scratching now, trying to convert Japan’s old 10.15 mode standards…I’d like to change my wager on a new US rating of more like around 65MPG.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:19 am)Whats new here? I thought they were going to offer a Prius with an upgraded interior as a Lexus with Li-ion batteries? Either way it will be a parallel hybrid and won’t be able to compete long term with the volt. Toyota will need to develop a serial hybrid power train and that would take a few years. Hopefully CPI and A123 know something that panasonic does not, leaving GM with superior technology. Imagine a Gen II Prius with Li-ion catch fire! Now there is some bad PR.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:23 am)#21, statik,
Both you and Texas can disrobe for Watanabe – make it a three way – you can be the adapter.
Toyota has a baseline product that can’t easily be developed into a REEV, nor a PFCV, but GM is developing one rapidly. GM announces their intentions, and Toyota lashes out and remains obstinant. GM verifies major components and gets mules running, so Toyota then counters to add a plug, increases all electric range and switches to Li Ion.
See the difference? GM is leapfrogging Toyota, who has completely tooled up for an inferior product, so that Toyota will not recoup their investment. The new CAFE standards will force Toyota to the series hybrid, BEV or FCV, as the Prius isn’t efficient enough to compensate for the rest of Toyota’s fleet.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:34 am)Side issue to what I’m sure will be a very lively debate. (Expecially after I brought up ‘moon shot’…I already regret that, lol).
I wonder how the EPA/GOV will actaully rate the Volt/Prius. Clearly the standard test will prove flawed.
As far as I can tell, the current EPA ratings consists of 5 tests, ranging from 10 mins to 30 mins, and involve City, Highway, High Speed, AC, Cold Temp. No test goes a greater distance than a ’simulated 11 miles’ Wouldn’t this render both cars practically infinity +1?
If the standards are changed to accomodate these vehicles, what do you change it to? Each EV/ICE vehicle will have it’s own strengths.
Clearly there will need to be some kind of new system to accomodate these cars. Perhaps a two tier system? A ‘EV rating’ and and a conventional ‘ICE’ rating? Maybe something like this?
Volt
37.5mile range EV — XX/kWH per Mile (allowing for AC component)
350mile range ICE — 50.00MPG
Prius
9.3mile range EV –XX/kWH per miles (allowing for AC component)
780mile range ICE — 65.00MPG
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:52 am)I would have to agree with #28, but I would prefer if no one disrobed.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:01 am)Parallel hybrid just doesn’t cut it for me. I want to be able to commute without using ANY gas. With parallel, even if you have high MPG, you still NEED gas. Only Serial Hybrid can achieve that and I always felt the Prius is just using battery as a “placer beau”, remove the battery and you achieve almost the same result with the ICE alone, to be able to plug it in won’t change that.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:03 am)#29 Jason M Hendler
Both you and Texas can disrobe for Watanabe – make it a three way – you can be the adapter
This is too far. You crossed a line.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:05 am)Some of you people are completely detached from reality.
The “Volt” does not exist. Not yet. Maybe not ever. At this point, to say Toyota is “catching up” or that GM is “leapfrogging” anything is ludicrous. Toyota has a car. GM doesn’t. GM is attempting to leapfrog the market but the usual considerations of time-to-market, established share, reputation, cost and the value proposition all apply.
Toyota is already on the way to recovering their investment. Toyota has proven it can field an effective hybrid car in the low $20s and, apparently, make money.
While there’s enthusiasm for the Volt in some quarters, the Volt is very likely to succumb to two problems:
1. Cost to GM and the buyers. When the chips are down and the vehicle is more expensive than a Lexus, the potential customer base will shrink. This is exactly the fate that has befallen the Tahoe/Yukon SUVs. I’ve been admiring one at a nearby dealer lot for 50 days. Since then, it has been joined by two of its younger brothers, now aged 34 and 28 days. GM has now had to put incentives on them. We’ll see how that goes (since the incentives on the standard gas hogs are larger, I’m thinking this won’t help much). In his sketch of the Volt rollout (in which he declined to talk about the volume of production), GM’s Henderson described a very gradual rollout that was clearly constrained by concern over cost.
2. GM’s Quality Rep. There’s a large group of people out there who would not touch a conventional GM product with a 10-foot pole. They’re certainly not going to buy advanced tech from GM. Look at GM’s current hybrid offerings; practically zilch for production and they’ve STILL had to initiate a total recall of a critical hybrid component. The Volt MAY have excellent quality (don’t bet anything you can’t afford to lose on that) but it carries four decades of baggage in the quality department.
3. (Did I say two problems?) Many of the early adopters have already bought in to the Prius. These are the people motivated by something other than dollars and cents and would ordinarily comprise the most important market segment for GM. They’ve had a satisfactory experience with the Prius and the cream of the market, from the Volt perspective, has already built up some owner loyalty. If Toyota is fielding a replacement vehicle that works anything like the Prius, they won’t shift at all. The rest of the market is very much interested in the value proposition. See problem 1.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:09 am)This whole story shouldn’t suprise anyone. Toyota is king at talking out both sides of their mouth.
Focus towards fleet sales? That is probably a good way to introduce another typical super bland vehicle to get the market penetration started. Have to get the lemmings in line before you start leading them around.
“Just look at the light.” Tommy Lee Jones, “Men In Black”
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:09 am)The really big question is Honda. We all knew that Toyota would
eventually ape GM. They are an old and tired company run by old and tired executives who are getting sliced and diced by the Koreans.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:10 am)Jason M Hendler,
Maybe you don’t want a open and civil debate?
“Toyota, who has completely tooled up for an inferior product, so that Toyota will not recoup their investment”
I’m not even going to argue the point at all with this kind of statement. Prius is inferior? The next gen Plug-In will not recoup investment? We haven’t even seen it or know the specs and it is already a money loser?
“GM announces their intentions, and Toyota lashes out and remains obstinant” Why does everything have to have a emotion? Do we need all the hyperbole in your posts? Can’t we just discuss things?
Just go back and read some of your posts and imagine how they are received by anyone not sharing your opinion…start with number 18 here.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:18 am)Interesting that the article talks about Toyota leaning towards leasing the vehicles in 2010–sort of how GM did it with the EV1–as an experiment to see how well they work in the real world and if it’s a complete disaster, allows Toyota to take back the cars (and crush them?).
And with the mentioning of the cars going to fleet customers in 2010, it all sounds a lot like the news about hundreds of Volts in Spring of 2009 that will presumably be driven by GM staff who will be the “fleet customers”. That makes the Volt project a year ahead of Toyota.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:21 am)Statik:
You are still seem to think that a LI-Ion version of a plug in Hybrid Prius will be priced the same as the current models. I think that is one of the major flaws in your argument. Putting in a much larger battery pack, and changing to Li-Ion id goping to have to have an effect on the sticker price of the car. I do not think the price difference will be as great as you do.
And as far as John Q. Public, I do not think it will be that hard to make the case for the Volt. “If you drive less than 40 miles per day, you will use no gasoline! But if you want to take a nice long trip to see grandma, the Volt has a small engine that will still get you 50+ miles per gallon.”
The only thing that GM is really going to have to work on will be number of units produced. I think they are going to have to ramp up production much more quickly, because they are going to sell every one of these vehicles that they can make!
JMHO
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:22 am)Competition is good in regards to price and comparing technologies to find out which is better. Plug in hybrids is a good compromise, but I’m still waiting for an affordable all EV to get away from gasoline all together (I drive 60-80 miles per day M-F) and all the routine maint. for all the parts that can go wrong.
If Ford makes their hybrid Escape to plug in, then I may get that or a similar compact SUV with 4 wheell drive, but for city driving…where a car wil have enough room and 2WD is all you need…I want all electric.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:22 am)Hey Luke # 5.. Station wagon? Why not just drop all the electric technology into the discontinued MAXX.. Not a station wagon but a real people and equipment hauler.. My modified 07 MAXX is currently averaging 31 – 33 MPG (Canadian gallon). I would settle for 30 MPC and then 45 MPG after that just to keep the cargo capacity of the MAXX..
Ray
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:23 am)#36 Dagwood
You have some good points. I obviously agree that the Prius is a success story and it shows by the fact they still sell everyone they can produce (at a profit) after almost a decade on the market.
My thought with the announcement today. Is the effect it has on future sales to the Volt (past the initial excitement of new vehicle demand…whether that be 20K or 100K).
I’m sure when GM was thinking about the Volt and it’s customer base it was hoping to tap into a good bulk of the over 1 million existing Prius drivers.
They probably figured that these ‘early adapters, ’super-greenies’ or whatever you call them, would be eager to jump to their more advanced platform. (Yes, for the record I feel the Volt is better, more technologically sound…but like lots of things that are ‘better’, they are also more money).
However, with the official news that Toyota will be offering the Prius also as a electric (non-gas assist) range car, coupled with a much higher gas efficiency engine…ahead of the Volt, I think a high majority of these Prius owners will stick to the brand.
For the most part, I would think Prius owners are fiercy adament about the virtues of the Prius, and I would wager their brand loyalty would be incredibly high.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:23 am)Dave G #13, Luke #5,
“my ideal car is a green&sporty little station wagon”
OK me too and I am on the waiting list in my Opel dealership to get the first Flextreme they’ll put on sale.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:36 am)# 41 Jim I
“You are still seem to think that a LI-Ion version of a plug in Hybrid Prius will be priced the same as the current models. I think that is one of the major flaws in your argument.”
Actually I quoted the price as 29K in my argument, thats 7K higher than the base.
However, I also agree with you that Volt production is way too low. I feel there will be a initial 2-4 year window of pandamonium to get a EV…ANY EV. Both fueled by demand and by the limited supply available from any major automanufacturer.
I am convinced neither Toyota or GM can pump out too many Volts or Prius’ in the first few years, so it would be advantagious to either to ramp as fast as possible. I (personally) believe that GM has no intention of being high volume as long as the Volt is made at the Hamm/Mich plant. Right now they are just trying to get it out there…the ‘high volume’ production will come when the new Euro-flex plant comes online in 2012/2013ish.
If I was guessing max future production of the Volt/Plug-In Prius, (as many as they could pump out) it would be like this
2009 Volt – 0 Prius – 12
2010 Volt – 2 Prius – 10,000
2011 Volt – 8,000 Prius – 40,000
2012 Volt – 20,000 Prius – 100,000
2013 Volt- 40,000 Prius – 150,000
2014 Volt/Prius – as many as the market demands
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:38 am)It makes no sense to compare these two vehicles because they can clearly coexist. Both Toyota and GM will be able to sell as many Priuses and Volts as they can possibly manufacture, for whatever price they want (at least for the first few years). The real question is, how will the 2015 Volt compare to the 2015 Prius?
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:42 am)I would think most of the early Toyota production would go to Japan, other than maybe a token 10 percent to the US.
I’ll put out a interesting question/scenario (well, at least it is to me):
If today we went to both a Chevy dealership and a Toyota dealership, put $100,000 on the owner’s desk and said, “I don’t care how much it is, or even when you can put my name on a wait list, here is my money, I want a new plug-in Volt/Prius. You can give me my change back when it comes in.”
When do you think you (average customer in the real world) would get it? In either vehicle case, I’m sure it is much farther out than the ‘official press releases’
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:45 am)All this is one more reason why the Volt NEEDS (needed, I guess at this point) to be styled and designed for appeal and not forgo the style to get maximum mpc. If GM rolls out an ugly Volt, the game is over before it started. If GM rolls out a beautiful Volt, Prius will look pathetic by comparison.
Others have said here before, a lot of people bought the Prius even though they knew it was ugly. It was the only game in town, then.
I still think a beautiful Volt design will have a larger impact on PRIUS sales than anything else GM could do. The tech will be basically a wash, to the common folk.
Most of the techies already have their Prius. They weren’t going to buy an American car anyway. Now you are entering into the mainstream buyers, looking for help with gas bills. These people want the tech but also want to drive something that looks good. Sorry to disappoint so many of you here, but I predict the Volt’s style and design will drive its acceptance as much as than the technology in the car. There will be lots of options for the tech in the next few years. But all of the affordable, proposed electric vehicles are butt-ugly.
Please Volt, show us something creative and attractive.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:46 am)I see Toyota’s plans as good for consumers. Competition is good. Toyota builds vehicles in the U.S. If they are cheaper and they get great mileage. I have no loyalty to GM. I want to see GM succeed, but the price can’t be over 30k. or I will be going another way. There will be other options by then.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:50 am)Statik:
I think you are way low on the Volt’s production numbers.
There are only two things that could keep it as low as your predictions:
1. There is a serious flaw in the control hardware/software that causes major delays to correct.
2. There is a shortage of battery packs from the selected manufacturer(s).
Other than that, I think GM would take one of the closed plants in 2011 and convert it to Volt production, Then you would have two plants putting these out in high volume. And then there is the Flexstreme model adding to the total production of E-REV vehicles.
I just think that GM is going to ramp up much more quickly than you…
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:57 am)Production numbers of the VOLT are irrelevant after a few years, as I am sure the VOLT concept will eventually be available across all GM nameplates.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:58 am)I just spotted this “Update” on the information above posted on http://www.autobloggreen.com this morning:
“Update: Don’t get too excited yet. We checked with Toyota spokesman Curt McCallister who confirmed that nothing has changed with Toyota’s PHEV plans Since CEO Watanabe spoke at the Detroit Auto Show in January. The Panasonic EV plant will begin making lithium batteries late in 2009. However, 2010 will only see a few hundred plug-in Priuses available to government and commercial fleets for testing. The PHEVs would not be available in higher volumes to retail customers until 2011-12 at least.”
What is going on? Who is correct?
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:05 am)#48 Jim I
You could very well be right. If things all go as GM says, I will be.
I as far as I can tell, unofficially I think the expectation range they have put us is in, is something like this:
2010 2,000
2011 10,000-20,000
2012 40,00-80,000
2013 100,000+
I really still don’t believe they will hit production in 2010, maybe early/mid 2011 with limited capacity. I guessed 20,000 for 2012 based on my guess of what their committment could be to the battery manufacturer if they were struggling to get into full production in 2011.
My 2013 guess of 40K is totally random (really it is too far to have anykind of answer). It totally depends on their timeline to move the production to Europe.
I really don’t think there is any chance of them re-opening a closed plant to “stop-gap” on the demand before going to overseas. I think they will use all of whatever funding/cashflow they have to continue ro set-up the next-gen euro plant.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:05 am)I did not see anything new concerning Toyota. They had planned on the next generation Prius having a lithium battery, but thermal runaway issues caused them to backtrack and instead come out with a 2009 Prius with a larger Nickel-metal hydride, with around 2.6 KWH capacity. The extent of the delay appears to be two years, with Lithium battery production being full scale in 2010. So I assume the 2011 Prius will either have, or offer as an option a Lithium Ion battery, and either have or offer as an option a Plug to recharge. The AER might be near 20 miles.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:07 am)#50 Schmeltz
What is going on? Who is correct?
Ain’t that the truth? That could be the theme song for the development of every electric vehicle in the pipeline.
The only thing you can really, truly believe, is when wheels hit the road.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:09 am)The thing frustrating about these cars is we have to wait more than 2 years. Gas prices are out of control now and going up by the hour it seems. We needed these kinds of cars last year.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:11 am)A plug in hybrid is a stupid idea. It will put millions of vehicles on an already stressed/outdated electrical grid. The price of electricity is skyrocketing just like fuel. The cost savings of recharging your plug-in Hybrid over a non plug-in like a Prius will be negligible.
The true answer is a self suficient vehicle that once started and moving constantly recharges the battery by inertia, solar panels, etc
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:11 am)The PHEVs are a stopgap solution. They still are gas cars. You can’t drive them out of the garage without starting them up first. They refuse to run pure EV without the engine and catalytic converter warming up first. So the real advantage of the Volt is that you can go up to 40 miles without ever starting the engine. Toyota has already stated that they think that’s the wrong way to go. But partially the issue is the Prius doesn’t have a strong enough motor to drive the car pure EV on the freeway. So if all the conditions are met, the Prius can bu used pure EV for more miles. However, unlike the Volt, there is no possibility that you could never have to buy gas again. With the Prius (and other PHEVs) they are always a gas car first.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:12 am)Texas # 14,
If they can beef up the Prius electric drive motor so that it can do 70 mph they would really have no need for the serial hybrid.
I’ve driven a 2004 Prius at 70mph on the electric motor. I was going downhill at the time, though. The issue with the electric motor isn’t how fast it can go, it’s how much mechanical-power it can dump into the CVT system. A bigger electric motor coupled with a beefier magic-Prius-transmission shouldn’t be too hard for Toyota.
Theoldguy # 40,
Station wagon? Why not just drop all the electric technology into the discontinued MAXX.. Not a station wagon but a real people and equipment hauler..
Sure, the MAXX is nearly a station wagon by my definitions — something a little squarer than a hatchback, that can old box-shaped cargo. The MAXX is a little bigger than what I have in mind, but not by much. Subaru, Mazda, and Audi all have little wagons that look nice. Alas, they’re all gasoline powered which, doesn’t seem like a safe bet for the next 2-3 years with the volatile oil market. But, yes, a MAXX with an e-flex drive-train would be something that I’d consider! The Flextreme’s styling is closer to my taste, though. The Mazda 3 and Mazda 6 hatchback/wagons are just plain pleasing to my eye. But, I realize that beauty is in the eye of the beholder!
I nearly bought a Subaru Impreza a few months ago — it’s tiny, AWD, and it can tow 1000lbs between the hardware store and my house. I ended up there after I looked at a Ford Escape Hybrid, but I determined that the Impreza had the same capabilities, in a better looking and more Luke-sized package — for $10-12k less. But, then my mechanic came through, and I started driving my old car again.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:15 am)Can anyone say it’s an all-out assault on oil? This is excellent news!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:16 am)#41 Statik,
While it is too early to start picking winners and losers in the battle for the Prius faithful and would be Prius customers in 2010. We will need to know more details of the final specs. I agree that in concept the Volt has an edge. If the Volt comes out with specs as we undestand them, 40 mile AER and 50mpg thereafter, I think they will do well with the “green” Prius minded customers if Toyota only offers 15 miles or less worth of stored battery energy. For cost conscious only Prius customers, then the Prius will probably have an edge.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:16 am)Nothing to do with the topic. But GM siled with the supreme court in Canada today to stop the union from blockaiding it’s headoffice…which was expected.
Here is the twist, it has also filed for $1.5million in damages.
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/11062008/2/biz-finance-caw-says-s-surprised-gm-seeking-1-5.html
Ugly.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:18 am)55 Franklin:
Physics cops just pulled you over. You are talking about breaking the laws.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:19 am)Hrm, lost a post. (Probably the yahoo finance link again).
Totally off the subject but interesting.
GM filed with the Supreme Court of Canada today to officially stop the blockade of it’s headquarters by the union…here is the twist, it also filed for 1.5 million in damages.
A ugly situation to be sure. (Source link blocked…serach engines are your friend if you really want the press release).
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:19 am)If the Update posted at autobloggreen.com is correct, then the above article is completely nullified. Plug-in Prii will go government and commercial fleets for testing in 2010 according to the Update. Then, if all goes well, Plug-in Prii will be available (maybe, possibly, not for sure, but there’s a good chance) in 2011 or 2012. Does anyone truly know the facts?
I just read an article recently that Ford is testing a number of Plug-in Ford Escapes with Southern Calif. Edison, to essentially expose any bugs and problems with the vehicles and prove a strong business case to build these things. Shoot, for all we know Ford might beat them all to market! Hey, if they can do it, I say more power to them! Someone mentioned before here that competition is good for the PHEV in that it helps get the battery costs down, and validates the concept to the public. I still am rooting for the Volt though.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:21 am)You people sound like a bunch of flea’s arguing over who owns the dog. The simple truth is that gas is going to be expensive along with food, utilities and anything else that requires fossil fuels to produce. The world demand is growing at light-speed for everything and those that can buy will and those that can’t, won’t! The US is moving into the world economy and we need to learn how to survive or, well the “or” answer can be many things that do not need to be discussed here. Electric cars are coming and we will all find a way to live, just not like we have been living. Change is the mother of invention as we all know and where there is change there is opportunity.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:22 am)I hope Saturn imports the Flex Opal. Saturn was our first new car (bought it after we got married so she would have a dependable car), and we have continued to drive Saturns today (have owned 4). Wife drives the LW300 Wagon and gets 25mpg a tank, and I drive a Ion3, getting 32 mpg. We both drive 54 miles round-trip to work each day (ouch at these gas prices). Plus, the kids are in sports, so we have to drive into town each Saturday. While the Volt or Opal will work for me, she needs a larger vehicle as our 3 kids all go to school in town (we live out in the boondocks).
I hope they rapidly put a larger e-flex vehicle out in 2011 or 2012 as her wagon is a 2001. Luckily (knock on wood) her wagon has been almost problem free with 130K miles on it, replace a couple sensors and the AC compressor. We talked it over and have decided to keep repairing, even a major repair, her wagon until a suitable e-flex Vehicle is available.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:29 am)A couple thoughts…
As mentioned, a plugin-Prius means a bigger battery, bigger motor, higher capacity controllers, etc. In other words … more expensive than the current Prius.
The Volt’s E-Flex architecture scales better to high performance Vehicles than a parallel approach. Imagine an E-Flex Corvette that accelerates as fast as a Tesla, is half as expensive as a Tesla, and is as fuel efficient as today’s Prius. Once E-Flex is proven, that will be simple for GM to do.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:30 am)Toyota is clearly dazed and confused now that they realize Lutz is playing smart to win back the marbles.
I have enjoyed watching Toyota go on their denial, anger, acceptance trip.
It would be fun to be a fly on the wall at one of Toyota’s executive meetings listening to these guys trying to make sense of how GM got ahead of them on this one. I bet that scene gets into a documentary one day.
GM needs to run like heck because despite what Toyota says for public consumption, Toyota will try to get out in front of GM through faster implementation. That’s Toyota’s MO; let the Americans think it up and then beat the Americans through faster, larger scale, and higher quality implementation.
Hey GM…how does it feel to be the clear race leader innovation wise, and guts wise? My hat is off to every one of you GM employees that are part of the VOLT program. Thank you for making this American proud. I can’t wait to drive my VOLT around with a big smile on my face.
_____________________________________________________
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:31 am)#59 Koz #52 Van
I agree, we have alot of semantics here. Final specs would make life alot easier just figuring out what is what. Here are some random important questions.
For Toyota, originally it was to be the NiMH had a range around 10miles (2.6kWH) and a price tag around 25ish.
Does the new decision to move to Li-Ion, keep the same size and therefore increase range and range? Or will they make it smaller with the same specs? Whats this ‘next-gen’ they are already working on? How much better? And when? Is the next gen Prius battery pack scaleable? Can Toyota do a easy trunk pack swap like the Hymotion and instantly be selling 40mile range cars if they want to?
For GM, what will be the real world range of the EV? Is the backup ICE really going to get 50MPG or is that a guess-ti-mate? What is it going to look like? Can you even get one outside of 3 cities when it hits production? How many can they build? And when? Most importantly, what the heck is the pricetag? We have a range of 30K at the ridiculously low to 50K at the ridiculously high,
I fear we will not know these things until the Detroit autoshow. 7 months to go…should be exciting!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:55 am)50 Schmeltz
Sounds like both GM and Toyota have to do damage control on a couple of execs with loose lips. Retreading wonky engineers into cosmopolitan corporate manager types is not without chinks.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:05 am)#60 biodieseiljeep
Laws are made to be broken :>)
One day, we’ll see a device connected around the vehicle’s rear axle or in the wheels that generates electricity (maybe static ?) without the addition of mechanical drag.
One day…
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:11 am)#55 Franklin
I disagree with everything you said.
Numerous studies have shown that our current electric grid is more that adequate for night-time charging of plug-in hybrids. Just watch the Nova program “Car of the Future” to verify this. You can watch this online at pbs.org/wgbh/nova/programs.
There is no way a solar powered car would work. The area of the car is too small. The best you can do is a solar array on the roof of your house.
The price of electricity is currently around $1/gallon equivalent, so it’s way cheaper than gas. Plus, the hidden costs of gasoline are enormous. We are funding both sides of the war on terrorism. Foreign oil imports fund the terrorists, and our tax dollars fund the war. Find out more at setamericafree.org.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:16 am)I think one aspect that isn’t being discussed is performance.
Bob Lutz mentioned at VoltNation that the Volt will do 0 to 60 mph in about 7 seconds. In addition, in his recent video interview he said the Volt mule handled very well, due to the battery pack’s low center of gravity.
So when the average consumer test drives a Volt, and feels the acceleration and the handling, he will realize this vehicle is a class above the Prius, whether the Prius has plug-in capability or not.
This fun-to-drive factor alone may be enough to sway many buyers to the Volt, even if its gasoline mpg is not as great.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:17 am)This car will be available *FOR LEASE ONLY*.
“For Lease only = Dead on Arrival”
Knowing what happened with the EV-1, people want to *buy* the cars so that the company just can’t confiscate them at a moments notice.
Dear Toyota;
Either give us a purchase option, or don’t bother with it at all until you do.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:27 am)Toyota also indicated a research effort to make new battery that outperforms lithium-ion.
This is intriguing. I wonder where they’re going with this. The only mobile, rechargable battery technology I know of that outperforms Li-Ion is the Ag-ZnO battery, which would be prohibitively expensive (unless leased). On the other hand, there are improvements in anodes and cathodes for the Li-Ion battery that could greatly improve its output (e.g., Silicon Nanowire Anodes). I’ve also heard of cathodes that allow Sodium to be substituted for Lithium, using metal fluorophosphates, which solves the lithium scarcity problem.
Hmm. We’ll have to see where they’re going. Still, we’re seeing the beginning of a revolution. Battery technology is improving by leaps and bounds, and I’ve even heard that the the direct ethanol fuel cell technology (specifically the separator chemistry) is maturing too. If these technologies prove viable, and (another big if) we can start to revitalize our electrical generation industry using a host of energy sources including nuclear, we’ll be much less vulnerable to oil shocks in the future.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:30 am)I remember saying that I hoped the Volt had a rear view mirror, so Bob could see Toyota gaining on him, and I was right. The world just figured out that GM has a good idea with the Volt. Bob needs to start looking over his shoulder from time to time. The Volt clone wars have officially begun.
Hey Bob, you might want to move up the Volt roll-out timetable a little, hmmmm ?
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:33 am)#46 MetrologyFirst
I agree… at least for me… this car MUST be appealing to my kiddie-pool-shallow eye.
You can have your Prius-style…bless ALL of you who drive one but I’m sorry I just cant do it… I wish I wasnt so shallow (and so does my wife)
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:46 am)All things being equal, if it still looks like an egg with headlights, count me out.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (12:00 pm)Murray @74
Instead of “shallow”, I like to think of us as actually having MORE depth.
We do not discount the emotional appeal of a car like so many others do. The car is not just a vehicle to us. It displays our taste, or lack of it. Are we a fun person? Cool? Boring? Detailed? Vain? Interesting? Funny? IMO, if I’m spending $20-30K on a car, it better be fun to be in, drive, and have some style. That’s too much money to have no emotional attachment with what you spent it on.
My brother drives old Hondas. Although I don’t like them, he made me laugh when he painted a full roof-sized Japanese battle flag on the roof of his old 70’s Honda civic. That car specifically told people that he has a crazy sense of humor. Which he does.
It still makes me smile today.
OR……….. maybe we ARE shallow! Whatever….At least I’m having fun driving my car. More than I can say for most people these days.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (12:11 pm)Bill Nye McFly #69 and Franklin #55,
If you can break the laws of thermodynamics, you’ll rock the foundations of pretty much all modern science and engineering, and get a Nobel Prize in the process. Before you try, though, read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermodynamic
It would probably be best to start with a perpetual motion machine. After you demonstrate that, the sky is the limit!
Good luck with that, though… Every scientist and engineer I know (and probably every one in history) has attempted to design a perpetual motion machine — usually while daydreaming, but sometimes during more serious pursuits. However, everyone who examines the issue eventually agrees it’s impossible. Those who disagree are encouraged to build a perpetual motion machine and show it to the rest of us. Please build us such a machine!
P.S. It is possible to build a car that runs from photovoltaic solar panels on its roof (and this doesn’t break any laws of thermodynamics), but it would be very very difficult make this work out for a useful everyday car like the Volt. Since the Volt must have a battery anyway, it’s far better to put the panels on the roof of your garage and charge the car through a wire — you can capture a lot more sunlight that way, and you don’t have to carry around hundreds of pounds worth of panels and electrical conversion gear. Energy independence is possible (though expensive), but attaching a generator to the axle of a car will just slow it down and recover a fraction of the energy used to accelerate the car (the way it does in the Prius, and all hybrids/electrics).
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Jun 11th, 2008 (12:11 pm)Lyle,
Is the Saturn Flextreme being redesigned for production? If so, would it be gas or diesel? Gas would be MUCH easier in the U.S.. Are they going to redesign the cargo area and liftgate? I don’t think 2 Segways per family will be the norm anytime soon…
Any info Saturn Flextreme appreceiated.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (12:12 pm)30 Brian:
Amen. What a scary thought.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (12:18 pm)Statik #67,
Yes, we will know a whole lot more about the next generation Prius in early 2009 when it is expected to hit the showrooms. It will be better looking, have a much improved HSD, and about a 7 mile EV mode range but no plug. It will not have a lithium battery, but A123 is creating a network of Toyota dealers who will install the “L5″ hymotion kit, giving it a plug and an AER near 20 miles.
Sometime in 2010, and I do not recall if the time (spring or fall) has been disclosed, Toyota will make a lithium battery plug-in available for fleet sale (or perhaps lease.)
In any event, it looks like Joe Blow will be able to buy a PHEV before the end of 2011. And the one that is the price leader will prevail.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (12:25 pm)The best perpetual motion machine design I’ve hard of is the cat / buttered toast perpetual motion machine.
You strap a slice of buttered toast, buttered side up, to the back of a cat. The cat will always land on its feet, and toast will always land buttered side down. But neither of these things can happen, so the cat/toast assembly must spin above the kitchen floor. Energy could then by harvested by attaching a magnet to the cat/toast assembly, and then putting the cat/toast/magnet assembly inside coils, thereby creating a dynamo.
I haven’t tried this yet, though, for fear of annoying my cats… It’s all fuzz and games, until some unhappy spinning levitating kitty-cat scratches my eye out!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (12:30 pm)An EnerDel executive believes 74 lithium-ion hybrid and BEV vehicles may be on the market by 2010. Lots of Volt alternatives. The 2009 Detroit Auto show should be incredible.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-9960585-54.html
Why the delay in sharing a view, a sketch, a computer rendering of the Volt’s production design? If it looks incredible or looks like an egg, gas prices are approaching $5./gallon.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (12:35 pm)#81 Luke…
1 word = hilarious
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Jun 11th, 2008 (12:42 pm)Can you believe anything Toyota say? No, I don’t think so. Not long ago, they stated that it was too early to think about an electrically powered car using the lithium battery. I think Toyota has been working on this project for a lot longer than GM has. What they want to do is to try and catch GM with it’s pants down. If they’ve just recently decided to build a plug-in, how can they have it ready by 2010? GM has been working around the clock on the Volt and it won’t be ready until 2010.
Toyota has been going for a free ride with media and I hope one day the love affair will end.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (12:55 pm)to #11 Spin
If Toyota sell their car at a lost to the USA, that is call dumping. Their are trade laws against doing this. This time, I know GM will not let it ride like they have in the past. The Japanese are very aggressive and they’ll do anything to get the upper hand. If you want to read more on how they corner the market, click on this link. Many young people have no idea, but I remember when these trade issues happened.
http://www.uwsa.com/issues/trade/japanyes.html
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Jun 11th, 2008 (1:13 pm)Hi Dave G. I would think that the gasoline-equivalent cost of electricity is probably less than $1/gallon. For example, at 15cents/kwH, a Volt recharge will cost about $1.20, and that will take you about 40 miles. An ICE car of equivalent performance (assuming 25mpg) will require 1.6 gallons of fuel to go that same 40 miles. That yields $1.20/1.6 gallons or about 75 cents/gallon. Using less conservative assumptions (12cents/KwH and 21MPG) yields an equivalent cost of about 50 cents/gallon. I’m ignoring losses due to charge efficiency, since I’ve read that the charging process for lithiums battery systems is better than 99% efficient. Hope I’m not missing something.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (1:16 pm)Ahem.
I hear a lot of you saying that you would put solar arrays on your house roofs to recharge your Volt (or other EV), but
if you commute to work, and your panels are at home, how exactly will this work???
To be non-snarky, I suppose you could swap out your Volt battery in 5 years for the **NEW IMPROVED** version which might be ready by then; in order to exhaust the old battery’s life at home, soaking up solar energy from your roof panels (but even at that, you won’t be able to fully recharge the higher-capacity **NEW IMPROVED** battery in your Volt from the older, lower capacity one at home).
I do believe that it will become possible, eventually, to put a solar array onboard an EV, but not as the primary source of power. Electric drive means (as I said in a forum) that things not worth developing as a primary source of power might still be worth doing because they only help.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (1:29 pm)Hi Jackson. I think the idea with Solar panels on your roof is that you sell your excess electricity back to the power company during the day, while demand and price is high. Then you buy electricity back from the power company during the evening to charge your Volt, while demand (and price) is lower.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (1:45 pm)Statik, dagwood55,
I think in 2010 a lot of the “early adopters” could definitely be up for grabs, again.
Here’s why:
1) their current cars will be OLD by then. The early adopters will have 8-9 year old cars with 8 year battery warranties.
2) The California yellow-sticker carpool passes will expire then. All those early Prius/Civic owners who bought hybrids to drive in the carpool lanes will no longer be able to do so.
That’s another thing GM should be fighting for, by the way… To get carpool passes for EREV vehicles. It could be a huge boost to them.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (1:49 pm)#87 & #88 Jackson:
Yeah, as the old lady said when she peed in the ocean, “Every little bit helps”.
Maybe a solar panel on the roof runs a fan to cool down the interior while parked to lighten the shock load on the AC when the car starts up. Maybe it pre-warms it up in the winter to save a bit on the heater load.
Maybe it just adds 1 or 2 miles to the AER.
“Every little bit helps.”
And it’s way better than a see thruough roof panel, IMHO.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (1:50 pm)I had little doubt that Toyota had this planned a long time but did not want to make an anouncement. This is great news bcause this will make GM keep the price low to compete with Toyota. I wish nothing but the best for GM because a failure will be the end of GM
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Jun 11th, 2008 (1:51 pm)Toyota made this announcement for the purpose of taking some of the bloom off the Chevy Volt program. They are trying to leave the impression that the plug-in Prius will be available in large quantities to compete head on with the Volt. They are just blowing PR smoke.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (1:54 pm)Won’t there be a Saturn Vue Two Mode Plug in Hybrid coming out in 2009 ? Use Litium Ion Batteries?
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Jun 11th, 2008 (1:56 pm)This would be good news if it were actually true that Toyota would have these cars ready in number by 2010. It is really just a confirmatio is you take a closer look that Toyota dropped the ball by not really improving the prius over the years.
Dagwood 55 makes the only logical case as to why GM might not win out over toyota. The volt drive train is superior to the parallel hybrids but that might not be enough to keep GM from going belly up. Maybe GM waited to long!
The more competition the better. I just wish reality was a little closer to what the headlines imply.
If gas goes up to 6 dollars a gallon who is going to buy a new gas powered car? Especially when electric vehicles are promised right around the corner.
The headline that I am waiting to hear on this website the most is when this: GM announce all their vehicles will be E-Flex by the year 20??!
Come on Ford, toyota, honda etc. Give me a car I want to buy not some crappy gasoline powered car that gets a pathetic 50mpg.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (2:02 pm)69 Bill Nye McFly
Break a couple of laws of physics and you’re liable to find yourself in another membrane universe.
[Moderation limbo: See you on the other side. How much does this moderator job pay, anyway?]
55 Franklin
A poorly researched opinion is even a more stupid idea.
Better we should maintain our level of oil dependency and growing debtor economy to around 2040 or so when your inertial or solar powered vehicles come on line?
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Jun 11th, 2008 (2:06 pm)What about apartment or condo dwellers like myself that do not have access to an electrical outlet overnight for our autos… I guess we have to remain enslaved to oil until we get a garage! Ugh…
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Jun 11th, 2008 (2:16 pm)JerseyJohnny #95
You may want to talk to management about making charging stations available to tenants. My off complex has already committed to furnishing us with electrical outlets for day time use.
If not I foresee a lot of extension cords at your complex.
Have a great day,
Tom
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Jun 11th, 2008 (2:37 pm)I know all of you read the blog from GM Europe president Carl-Peter Forester (I’ll bet-LOL), but I’ll post a snippet from him today thats interesting…as far as I can tell, this is the first admission that GM’s international business is taking a real hit now.
As in North America, the true market numbers aren’t seen until much after the problem begins. GM builts the car, then sends them to their dealers, the moment the dealer takes possession GM marks those cars as sold…for all intents and purposes (and to the corporate accountants) it has sold them…the dealer owes GM for them.
However, down the road, as cars pile up on the lot…the dealer eventually stops taking more cars, which leads to a sudden and catastropic announcement (like we saw out of GM last week).
Here is the quote:
“To put it bluntly, the rise in oil is having a profound and permanent impact on the fundamentals of our business – and not just in North America. Adding insult to injury, while energy costs are draining the consumer side of our financial equation, the impact of skyrocketing commodity prices and the huge disparity between the Euro and most other currencies are seriously dragging down the production side of things here in Europe”
Down production is another term for non-dealer committments, which is pre-cursor to blown sales targets.
Linky: http://drivingconversations.gmblogs.com/
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:08 pm)Demand is going to greatly exceed supply of all hybrid vehicles for the near future. There is a 6-week waiting list for the Prius. I can’t image how long the waiting list will be when fuel hits $5, $6 or more per gallon. I wonder what the dealer “gouge” markup will be at the same time. I suspect as the waiting list gets longer the dealer “gouge” markup will increase.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:16 pm)The loss of sales by the dealer causes a chain reaction back to the production plants. By the time the “shock wave” of low sales and increasing dealer on the lot inventory hits back at the plants there is a lot of vehicles already made and waiting for orders from dealers. I would image every major manufacturer has quite a stock pile of vehicles, especially large vehicles, sitting on their staging lots waiting to be shipped when ordered by a dealer. Problem is no orders are coming from the dealers because sales are so slow. That is going to cause GM and the others to “move inventory” later this summer. There is going to be some very big sales of gas burners at that time. It will be a buyers market as long as they don’t mind the additional fuel cost. That additional fuel cost could be off set by the savings on the new purchases. Maybe….
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:17 pm)I think the autobloggreen article is the greater reality. Only a small number of plug-in lithium-ion Prius’ will be ready in 2010.
When it comes to the market, Toyota has become the IBM of the auto world. They play it safe, tried and true, no bleeding edge technology. The Prius was an aberation but an oddly necessary one as anyone with a brain knows that at SOME point oil will be no more/too expensive to be burning as fuel. Stop thinking of “Prius” and start thinking “Synergy drive;” you know, that little logo on every Prius?
Toyota put out a white paper stating that Synergy Drive was the basis of their ELECTRIC CAR. THE PRIUS IS AN ELECTRIC CAR WITH AN ICE AUXILURY POWER UNIT (APU). Future Synergy Drive vehicles might use fuel cells or stirling cycle ICE or hydrogen fueled ICE engines. Whatever safe, old Toyota believes will make them money and sell in mass quantities. The electric motor will become more powerful, the APU will become smaller as technology progresses.
Toyota is right. Japanese lithium-ion battery technology is not ready for prime time. Look at what Tesla has had to do to use that technology! All 6871 cells are individually fused! Sensor systems, electronic monitoring and on and on because Tesla selected current technology lithium-ion batteries. Remember, the much safer nanotechnology batteries are an American patent!!!!! Hold on everyone, seismic shift in progress!!!!!!!!!!!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:18 pm)Duke Energy (the electric power company in NC, SC and a number of other states) currently has some number of plug-in Prii, which their people drive around visibly.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:20 pm)#81 Luke:
Won’t work due to out-of-balance condition. Too costly finding heavier bread. Better to use two cats back to back, could be attached with velcro or an inexpensive fur weave. Not as funny, but much more practical.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:22 pm)This technology has the potential to collapse some Middle East Oil-based economies. Since NO electricity in USA is derived from oil (it comes from Coal,Natural Gas, HydroElectric Dams,Nuclear,Solar and Wind) It would only take a rapid 15 to 20 percent decline in U.S. gasoline consumption to kill their economies. Most of those countries have debts and are spending their oil money like drunken sailors, they could not adapt quick enough. This would be an awesome outcome if these EVs actually become affordable and popular QUICKLY.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:23 pm)Statik@43
I’ve been saying all along that Toyota would try *something* to blunt the Volt’s impact/acceptance. I’ve also said that the Volt will be out BEFORE Nov 2010. And probably even more than TWO of them.
My general feeling about today’s announcement: Competition is great for everyone. GM won’t be able to avoid having a waiting list that stretches from here to the next Toyota dealer. And most importantly, is the need (well, my need) for GM to recognize the people here when they get to the point of unleashing the Volt. We’ve been “the choir” for what seems like forever (already). Even Statik has kinda, in a minor, somewhat insignificant, negligible way, contributed. (Just kidding Stat).
Let us be the captive field testing fleet. Let us do SOMETHING.
Be well,
T
PS I don’t get the knock on Texas. He generally seems right on point to me (especially with his clothes on)
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:23 pm)We certainly live in interesting times. What with the presidential election and its consequences for the nation along with the rising cost of fuel, food and other necessities, I foresee a very interesting summer and fall. We may all regret the decisions we make over the next several months. Let’s hope we will be on the right side of the economy for many more years. The Volt should help all of us feel better about our lives. It should spur sales and savings. If we don’t save the money not spent for fuel, then spending for other things will increase which will help our economy. That way we win both ways.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:31 pm)GM will us a “controlled” group to field test the Volt. Most of do not live in the areas GM will use as test areas. But, some of us do. I suspect a lot of the testers will be GM employees. Beyond that, who knows. Most of us would gladly pay a monthly fee to test the Volt. I know I would, assuming a reasonable fee. GM says they are to have several hundred of the production level Volts in the field next summer.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:33 pm)I’m watching a piece on Fox news about a 6 week waiting list for a new Prius, and used ones are *appreciating* in value. Dealers are jacking up the price by 4K and still the waiting list. This is just a HINT of what will happen with the Volt.
PS Two nights ago I called WBZ in Boston and got 6 or 7 minutes air time talking about the Volt. Gave the site address and after the break the announcer read directly from the FAQ. He’d never heard of the Volt and was duly impressed.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:39 pm)Here in Dallas the local news was just at several large Auto Dealerships who’s lots are almost completely sold out of their small vehicles. The same lots are Full of SUVs that aren’t moving! The Dealers all say they were begging their factories to send them more small cars ASAP. I think this trend is going to last a while. A Ford Dealer was asked how many Focus cars he needed, he said at least 100 at each lot (he only had a total of 5 left). Apparently most customers were only interested in 4 cylinder vehicles, even the 6 cylinders aren’t selling. WOW !
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:39 pm)Nice spike in the wait list number today. Must be coming from the listeners of the Dr. Drew radio show.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:40 pm)#104 Tag — What you said is why it is important that GM go ahead and establish an official waiting list, collect deposits, and lock in their customers. They need to do it now (while customers are eager to be locked in). GM can put suitable conditions on the waiting list to protect both sides. GM is foolish to wait and wait and wait until the present opportune period of time goes by, and there are multiple competing cars in showrooms.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:44 pm)There’s no doubt in my mind that the conservative Toyota would not have been so quick to produce a plug-in if it weren’t for the Volt.
There is also no doubt in my mind that GM would not have produced the Volt prototype so quickly if it weren’t for Tesla.
The free market is truly a beautiful thing.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:46 pm)Local TV just had live interviews at several large auto dealerships (a couple of them are the biggest in the nation). They are begging their factories to send them more small 4 cylinder vehicles ASAP. One Ford Dealer said he only had a total of 5 Focus cars in stock and he needed at least 100 at each lot, he was desparate. All the lots they showed seemed full of SUVs and P/Us. I think this trend is going to last a while. Bring on the EVs !!!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (3:50 pm)Relax Statik. Jason is just frustrated because his delusional theories are unwinding. That and he has seriously twisted homosexual fantasies.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:21 pm)#109 RB
It worked and is working for SMART. Why not for the Volt. I would put down a reasonable amount.
40000 Smart orders at $99. That would put a little dent into the VOLT upfront cost.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:21 pm)Today’s funny award goes to Luke for his perpetual motion machine.
Today’s crass award goes to Jason M. Hendler for the way he characterized Statik as submissive. Statik’s record demonstrates he is not submissive. Statik might respect an opinion, but I suspect he does not show his respect the way respect is shown in Jason M. Hendler’s world. Please Jason, let’s keep the level of discussion elevated.
Now, back to the topic…Finally, cars that interest me are coming out of the woodwork and competing for my dollar! Has that already been said? If so, I take it back.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:27 pm)The kind of solar array you could put on a Volt today would be exactly what you describe, (#90) noel park; but the cells currently being researched in labs are another matter.
Consider that the Mars Exploration Rovers get all of their power from the sun, at over twice the distance away from it. This is only possible because of excruciatingly expensive, hand-made-in-a-lab multijunction solar cells. Some projections put conversion efficiencies for this kind of cell, eventually, in the 50 – 60% range (over twice what the best Silicon wafers can achieve, never mind the relatively inexpensive/inefficient flexible cells being rolled out now).
This is what I meant when I said “eventually.” Of course, the Mars Exploration Rovers travel at somewhat less than highway speed
Even with improved efficiency, I don’t think solar will ever be able to be a sole source of power for an automobile. But high-performance solar cells could reach costs low enough to be compelling for one, particularly if, say, it becomes possible to actually run the A/C on solar in the summer (or put in more like 5 – 10 miles of AER with the A/C off).
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:36 pm)#106 N. Riley
I live in SW Florida, just 2 miles from a brand new Chevrolet dealer; it opened less than 6-months ago. If what GM said earlier still applies today, then I’m one of the fortunate that lives within the areas GM will use as test areas and will gladly volunteer to serve as a Volt tester!
My normal driving is less than 40 miles/day during the week. On the weekends, my wife and I travel across state and back which is approx. 225 miles.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:38 pm)I must thank my friend Phil for introducing me to the theory behind the cat/toast/magnet perpetual motion dynamo!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:38 pm)Pretty soon, the world will be awash in oil because of all these electric cars. Prophetic, tongue-in-cheek funny, or stupid? I’m guessing most people on this web site will say stupid. Which probably means it’s prophetic!
Whatever your answer, it’s legitimate to ask: Wonder what the oil companies will do?
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:40 pm)#116 Steve
What else? They will try to buy the battery companies! They might even try to buy the power companies.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:44 pm)We just got the word the a few days ago that our local power company is seeking a 16% rate increase on top of a smaller raise just a few months ago.
Where will it ever end? If we don’t pay it to the oil companies and foreign countries, we’ll pay it to the power companies.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:45 pm)Steve 116
One word, son, Nuk-kear.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:51 pm)Once again…
TOYOTA IS NOT A PURE PARALLEL DESIGN.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/hybrid-car7.htm
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Jun 11th, 2008 (4:56 pm)I’m not surprised by this at all.
More power to whichever (GM or Toyota) is able to get me an affordable EV first.
Peace
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Jun 11th, 2008 (5:02 pm)#109 RB:
Amen.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (5:08 pm)#120 Eric in KC
I think your statement rings true throughout America.
Let us buy a affordable EV. I don’t care who it is, just tell me who to write the cheque too. Sure we would prefer to buy ‘local,’ we’d prefer to buy the fanciest of the EVs…but for right now, just let us buy anything.
I think I said this in one of my first posts here, and goodness knows I’ve said it more than a few dozen times since. I will buy the first 4 door, EV capable, car that I also can get serviced within it’s EV range.
Honestly, sometimes I think I might as well be saying, “Somebody sell me a unicorn!” All these cars seem so far away from actually being in my driveway, and isn’t that the bottom line?
Who cares about when you plan to get production going, or stand beside car #1 off the line, or have a photo op handing the keys to Tom Hanks. I want to know when Joe Public gets his unicorn!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (5:08 pm)It will be an interesting choice for buyers in 2010. Before this announcement, there was only one obvious choice… the Volt! Now, the choice will be down to which car provides the most bang-for-the-buck. The question to ask potential buyers is, define “bang”.
The other issue is, some buyers simply feel GM is inherently bad, and Toyota is inherently good. Though many tout saving the planet being the most important issue facing mankind, should the Chevy provide the best solution, they just may not feel it’s worth it!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (5:23 pm)This is mere co-incidence George K that I happen to be posting this below you, but I have to get in my “bad news of the day” ( I honestly wasn’t waiting in the wings for the moment you posted to throw this at you).
“GM shares touch nearly 26-year low as crude prices rally, Toyota posts new hybrid plans”
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6891838076714
GM’s stock fell 69 cents, or 4.1 percent, to $16.12 after touching a low of $16.08 earlier in the session. The stock last traded near that level in August 1982.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (5:23 pm)Yea Tagamet, great minds…err…similar minds…
From a comment I just made on http://gm-volt.com/2008/06/09/this-history-of-the-chevy-volt-have-they-made-a-huge-mistake/
“#166 Dave P,
“8. Toyota RAV (great investment! One of the few cars that actually goes up in price!! I wish I had bought one when they were half the cost they are now!”
I’m glad you mentioned this. It brings up a point that has been mentioned before about the Volt but hasn’t gotten adequate attention. I know there are other factors at play in the value of RAV4 EV’s besides just the increased financial benefit as gas prices increase, but I believe this is an important part. While there may very well be some growing pains with the first offering of the Volts, as long as GM stands behind them and the initial bugs are fixable the Volt should do extremely well in resale value. The contemporary vehicles a used Volt will compete with will be a big disadvantage if gas prices stay where they are or go even higher by the time the original Volt purchasers are looking to sell their cars.”
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Jun 11th, 2008 (5:32 pm)George K #123, yes, what will the buyers do if the cheaper one has a lower AER, and the more expensive one has the greater AER. The market will indeed define “bang.” And do not forget the necessity for adequate acceleration, that flaw really hurt the wonderful Insight from Honda.
I thing the new Chevy Malibu has done a lot to offset the thinking that GM and Chevy cannot make a comparable car to Honda or Toyota, so I think there are enough of us who will at least test drive the Volt and buy it if it compares favorably with PHEV’s from other car makers.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (5:36 pm)I just listened to Dr Drew’s interview with Dr Lyle. It was excellent. Drew seemed very familiar with electric cars in general, and he even mentioned the Toyota “Razor”, which I (and apparently Lyle) had never heard of. It sounds like a vapor-car, but here is an article (complete with the usual anti-Detroit spin) that I found on the Razor:
Toyota’s (TM) Electric Razor Car (GM)(F)
Detroit may be falling behind the curve again. Toyota (TM) will begin to mass produce lithium ion-batteries in less than two years, making the chances that a working electric car will be in the market shortly.
According to Reuters, Toyota “is keen to bring such vehicles into the mainstream by lowering their cost premium as more consumers around the world demand higher fuel economy.” The power plant is plugged into an outlet and takes a charge which can be renewed a large number of time. Toyota may be able to put out a million batteries a year before the end of the decade.
The news cannot be good for Toyota’s competition, especially if the new car works. A vehicle which costs about the same as gas-powered car but does not require money for gas should be a big seller. That is the theory and it is hard to find fault with it.
In Detroit, GM (GM), Ford (F), and Chrysler managements are scratching their heads wondering how Toyota got out of the box faster, again.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (5:47 pm)Our 2004 RAV4 will be paid off in 3 months. We will put the $500.00 per month in a savings account and wait until a “car manufacturer” can produce a quality vehicle that can help eliminate our need for gasoline. We are preparing our back yard for 30 solar panels. I know these investments in energy conservation have long-term paybacks, but we are convinced it is time to help our planet. We are willing to become semi self sufficient rather than foolishly believe that we will always have cheap gasoline. Converting the sun’s power into electric energy is the answer to most of our energy problems- duh.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (5:52 pm)RB #109
The process of collecting deposits for a car that hasn’t been produced yet is tricky in and of itself. Then there is the issue with the dealerships and their markup. The best thing that could happen to GM and the Volt is that they wake up and all the dealerships are gone. Won’t happen, but unfortunately they can’t run around them. It would be great if we could just order the Volt over the internet directly from GM, but unfortunately that won’t happen either.
What is going to make this difficult for GM is just how to price the Volt so that dealerships don’t gouge the public. After all we don’t buy cars from GM per se but from our local dealerships. If demand is super high, these dealerships are going to be able to name their price, and it could get out of control. Maybe there will be more competitors then we think in 2010-11 to help keep this in check.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (5:55 pm)124 George K
The way things are going these days, define “buck”.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:10 pm)For those interested in the RAV4 EV, don’t forget that GM has announced a Plug-in Saturn VUE for release hopefully late next year as a 2010 model. As a matter of interest, the Plug-in VUE’s 2 Mode architecture (with its 2×74 = 148HP electric motors) readily lends itself to the following operating modes…..
1) 35-40 miles in EV-ONLY mode at sustained highway speeds well in excess of 70mph
2) blended-mode (electric/gas) for heavy hauling/towing, rapid acceleration, etc, and
3) gas-only mode when its Li-Ion battery reaches min SOC with ~450 miles between fillups
GM expects the Plug-in VUE to have NO direct competition in its market segment when it first reaches dealers.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:16 pm)#125 Koz
Yes. Sadly the main reason that the RAV-4EV has increased in price so much is that there were only about 300 made. That and they really are good cars. I hope only one out of two of those conditions is true for the Volt.
I suppose a better thing to look at is the fact that the Prius has held its resale value very well and there are (well, were) plenty of those available.
#107 Tagamet:
Good for you! If the Volt is going to go mainstream it is going to have to break out of the Internet and onto mainstream media.
Actually, that reminds me, another often overlooked meda for car, er, advertising is video games. I put a down payment on one of the first WRX’s imported into this country before they had even arrived here. Talk about dealer gouging. The Steven’s Creek Subaru dealer had marked his first set up $10k over list (it was $24k list) and decided his second shipment he’d just auction them off! I actually flew to Irvine, CA and bought mine and drive it back to Cupertino (400 miles + airfare for my wife and I). Had to do that to just get it at MSRP!!
With something as tecnically advanced as the Volt, it would be a really good way to attract the high tech crowd.
But in any case, I digress. Tesla’s a company that really knows how to work the ‘buzz’ and they put some effort into getting into Microsoft’s Project Gotham Racing. It’s not cash money effort, it’s making some knowledgeable people available to the game designers to help model the physics and the car. GM should really consider that. I’d totally drive a Volt in Gran Turismo for the PS3 (before the Volt comes out in RL (real life) of course
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:26 pm)#130 mien green:
2/3 of a Euro.
#129 Grizzly:
I am as enthusiastic about the Volt as anybody but, if the price gets out of control, I promise that I can curb my enthusiasm. I will just walk away and wait until it gets back under control. It always happens, sooner or later. Ask the guys who paid $85k for Corvette ZR-1s in 1989.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:32 pm)Somehow I believe that the GM brain trust would have anticipated this move by Toyoto and have planned the Volt to be more desirable to any similar product by Toyoto in the short run, otherwise why do all the R&D on the Volt. The Volt and all it’s variations will be America’s car if the price is competitive. Go Volt
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Jun 11th, 2008 (6:52 pm)Noel #138
I sure hope it’s kept in check. However if it does get out of control it’ll be dealer markup so GM won’t see any of that for all their effort/expense to develop the vehicle.
The only way I can see them stopping this is to keep the price to the dealer high so they are limited from there. We already know from Lutz’s lips that the price is going to be high, but I sure hope that volume ramp-up will bring this down soon.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:24 pm)Griz @ 134,
In this day and age with the Internet, don’t be too surprised if you can order your Volt made to order over the Internet. Just look at what happened with Tesla. Plus there wouldn’t be the mark-up issue with the dealers. There would be a perfect way as to avoid the ridiculous amounts of inventory as is happening now with the surplus of SUVs which GM manufactured based on what dealers requested.
DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT GM; TAKE ORDERS OVER THE NET. DO SOMETHING DRASTIC WITH MORE THAN JUST YOUR PRODUCT.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:30 pm)#134 Grizzly
As noted by KDIB at #116, the best selling model for GM and the Volt is the way that Mercedes sold their new car, the Smart. Just as you said, they had to involve their dealers. [The power of their dealer network and GM's dealer network is that (by state laws in most states) delivery must be made through dealers.] So with Smart, Mercedes took deposits (essentially over the Internet) for a year or more in advance. (Some friends of mine made a deposit.) Then when Mercedes had the cars ready for delivery, they contacted those who had made a deposit and told them which dealer had their car.
The people who made deposits were committed to their cars and enjoyed knowing they were getting an early one. They accepted some pricing and performance risks — indeed, they enjoyed the excitement of the uncertainties. They were no longer looking around, they were waiting with eager anticipation. The dealers were happy to have a sales backlog with no selling costs (but still full availability of warranty income). Smart obviously was happen to have a substantial backlog of orders.
Now of course GM is not Mercedes and Chevrolet is not Smart. But I think KDIB is right that Smart’s program demonstrates that early sales (before production) are feasible, legal, and rewarding. GM is showing a tremendous amount of design and production creativity with the Volt — why not have some from marketing as well? What we have now from GM, looking at the Volt on their web site, is a plan for just another car. They can do so much better.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:56 pm)#141 Dave B
It occurs to me that one of the problems inside GM marketing may be that it has been such a long time since GM had a really hot new car — at the broad level of interest of the Volt — that there is no one in marketing that knows what to do with it.
Even so, I’m sure there are many excellent creative people in GM marketing. If Lutz or Wagoner or some other big dogs were to give them sort of demands and encouragement and freedom that design and engineering were given, then marketing really could “do something drastic”, just as you said. I am convinced that they really can take the sales initiative away from Toyota, that is, really cut Toyota off at the knees by taking orders first. Let the choice be to buy a Volt now or a Toyota someday. When you have a superior product, as GM does, and some innovation in marketing, it really is possible. Now is the time to do it.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (7:59 pm)Nasaman, why wait for the Volt if the Vue plugin is going to be comparable a year later?
Dave P, that’s a great idea about the product insertion in computer games!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:04 pm)Okay, I am an idiot and admittedly know jack about Toyota vehicle models because I have always disliked them and, contrary to popular opinion it seems, believe they use cheap materials but they use them well. (just trust me on this, I did purchasing and bill of materials for an upfitter and had to source OEM parts….Toyota is cheap cheap cheap)
how long has Toyota had the Synergy drive and how many vehicles is it in? Just the Prius and maybe one other model later this year correct?
The Volt is being built on existing architecture….this means that GM can retrofit their delta (I think delta is the Volt platform) plants at very little cost and be producing many different REEV vehicles in a short time. The stopgap to GM’s Volt production is, and always will be, battery supply. Battery is the hold up in production, battery will dictate production numbers, battery will dictate ramp up. Stop thinking Toyota engineering blah blah blah engineering is irrelevant. Whoever builds the battery the fastest will have the higher production numbers.
#nasaman: thanks for telling me that. The VUE is an excellent vehicle and gets decent gas mileage for an SUV. Wears like iron too. I would highly suggest if anyone needs a family vehicle to test drive one.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:06 pm)That’s a first. The edit window timed out waiting to open. Must be a LOT of souls on tonight.
Anyway, Re the Vue, I meant it’ll be out a year *earlier*. Won’t that vie for Volt buyers?
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:09 pm)#143 RB
it is not the hot new car thing…it is the fact that GM marketing has rarely had to market a SINGLE car before. That is the marketing advantage most other car manufacturer’s have over GM. They can mark a single car because their vehicle lineup consists of 10-15 cars TOTAL.
GM has that just in the Chevy line. Think it through, other than a couple spotlight cars GM’s marketing and advertising dollars go directly to advertise a brand, not a car.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:13 pm)______________________________________________
Lyle’s GM-VOLT Wait List surged another 4,000 subscribers today. His radio talk show appearance today must have hit a cord with a lot of listeners. You can go here to hear it: http://www.westwoodone.com/drew . Pass it on to your friends!
______________________________________________
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:19 pm)Just found out that Toyota only plans a test fleet of a few hundred by 2010. The commercial rollout is now scheduled for 2012.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:26 pm)#146 Morgan
I had not thought about that (marketing brands but not cars), but you are exactly right. Well, that plan is not going to work with the Volt. More positively, I’m sure that GM has some bright people in marketing who would love to respond to the challenge by doing something drastic. If anything extraordinary is to happen, now is the moment.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:36 pm)#150 RB
Most people don’t think about it. Unfortunately my family’s business was on the negative end of GM’s inability to market a single vehicle
so I know first hand how bad the GM beauracracy is…the fact they are this far along in this short of a time is nothing short of a miracle, which is why I believe they will be in production by 2010.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:39 pm)The lucky(sic) ones are driving company, government vehicles, and shared lease. And there is a lot of them. They don’t care to much what they drive or what mileage they get because they are not paying for the fuel or just a portion of it. They don’t know what a Volt is or care. It’s me, a working guy without those options who’s waiting for a Volt. I will keep driving my 11 year old vehicle while awaiting the Volt. I will keep on waiting untill I can purchase a Volt so I can stop buying opec oil. I can charge mine with domestic coal, hydro, or nukes. Domestic energy, not foreign. Keep some of our money here for our benefit.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:43 pm)Hi Kent #148, do you have a link to the source that says Toyota’s commercial roll out of lithium powered plug-ins is scheduled for 2012?
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:50 pm)Morgan @ 150
I agree about the way they keep emphasizing “If I need it I make a call and it’s there!” They are pulling out all the stops on this one.
T
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Jun 11th, 2008 (8:55 pm)Honda, is the sleeping giant in this game, watch and see.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:02 pm)Hmmm, Bob Lutz on GMNext is saying the plugin Saturn Vue will only have an 8 mile AER.
T
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:10 pm)#89 Paul-R:
“I think the idea with Solar panels on your roof is that you sell your excess electricity back to the power company during the day, while demand and price is high. Then you buy electricity back from the power company during the evening to charge your Volt, while demand (and price) is lower”
OHHHHHHHH. That’s very different!!!!
Never mind!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:13 pm)#156 Tagamet:
That’s what I heard, too.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:22 pm)Hey, green guys: Don’t forget wind power, or sell it short. It will be producing 1% of the US demand by the end of this year.
If you find that percentage unimpressive, consider just how large a megawattage (or gigawattage) that represents.
The US currently leads the world in wind energy growth.
If the Government really wanted to do something constructive to help the new energy economy along (like they did earlier economies when they built hydro plants during the depression, or the Interstate Highway system later), they could commission a superconducting link between the coasts: spanning the desolate (but sunny for solar, windy for wind) south and middle West. The real problem facing much of serious alternate energy growth is how to get the power from where it can be captured, to where it can be used.
Thermal solar plants in Nevada or California would still be in sunlight after dark on the Eastern Seaboard.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (9:27 pm)Go GM!! GM is now my favorite car company and probably will be for a long time to come because of this Volt project. I like to see companies like GM blaze new trails like they’re doing with series hybrids like the Volt … and their efforts to get fuel cell cars going.
GM is probably going to get more and more popular once late 2010 gets here. I bet GM gets a LOT of good publicity from the news media. You know Lyle and us gm-volt.com bloggers will be there in 2010 telling everyone that we there from the beginning cheering GM on to build this awesome new kind of vehicle. I think us gm-volt.com bloggers really are making a difference. I’m looking forward to going to an auto show to see it in person once they unveil the final production version for everyone to see. I want to see what it looks like inside and out. I might even go to Volt Nation 2009 if Lyle is doing it again.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (10:41 pm)Well, gracefully said, “it’s about time.” Personally I hope all the Industrial, Free nations tell the autocratic Kingdoms, Sheikdoms, and Oil Barons to keep their own people addicted at home. We’ve paid too heavy a price.
CHEVY VOLT: American-made, American-FUELED.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:14 pm)>> how long has Toyota had the Synergy drive and how many vehicles is it in?
>> Just the Prius and maybe one other model later this year correct?
The point of the technology is to spread it across the fleet, which is what Toyota has been doing. Isn’t that what should be discussed about development involving Volt too?
I can overlook all the incorrect operational information about Prius, but not the history itself… Sales began December 1997 in Japan. Later, the Estima minivan debuted as an “assist” hybrid, then was upgraded to a “full” hybrid years afterward, again in Japan only. Other models then followed. Here in the US, sales began in second half of 2000; these are the models & quantities:
2007 Prius = 181,221
2006 Prius = 106,971
2005 Prius = 107,897
2004 Prius = 53,991
2003 Prius = 24,627
2002 Prius = 20,119
2001 Prius = 15,556
2000 Prius = 6,401 (launched July)
2007 Camry-Hybrid = 54,477
2006 Camry-Hybrid = 31,341 (launched April)
2007 Highlander-Hybrid = 23,621
2006 Highlander-Hybrid = 31,485
2005 Highlander-Hybrid = 17,954 (launched June)
2007 RX-400h = 17,291
2006 RX-400h = 12,779
2005 RX-400h = 11,774 (launched April)
2007 GS-450h = 1,695
2006 GS-450h = 1,784 (launched April)
2007 LS-600h = 937 (launched August)
.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:20 pm)Jackson # 118,
You do realize that the Mars rovers to which you refer do not travel at highway speeds, right? They’re amazing technological wonders, but they’ve probably traveled less than 5 miles over the life of each vehicle. The operators spend a lot of time analyzing data and figuring out its next steps — and don’t forget the amount of time it takes for a radio signal to get to Mars and back. Sure the vehicles are partially autonomous — but their duty cycle and requirements are not at all like they’re hauling grocery store.
Anyway, if you want to see some fundamental physics of why putting solar panels on top of a car won’t do anything more than run the air conditioner, here’s a mathematical argument:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insolation
If it were high noon all the time, and you had 2.5 square meters of solar panels on the car, you might get 2.5 kw worth of energy. But excellent solar panels are only about 15% efficient (remember, we’ve stopped the rotation of the earth here) so we’re really getting about 375W. Now batteries are about 70% efficient at storing energy (that’s a lie, though, because the efficiency-of-charging depends on the battery’s state-of-charge — but we’re working on the back of the napkin here), so we’re saving about 263W for later. Now, the Volt’s battery is advertised as 16KWH, so it’s equivalent to running a 16KW power feed for one hour. It’s also equivalent to running a 263W power feed for 60 hours and 50 minutes. And, yes, this number assumes that the rotation of the earth has stopped.
Now, let’s spin the earth again. Let’s say it’s the summer in a typical location in the USA. Maybe we’ll get 14 hours of sunlight. But not much of that is at high noon, so I’m going to pull a number out of the air and say that we’ll get the equivalent of about 8 hours of high-noon-equivalent sunlight a day. So, now, it takes 7.6 days to get 40 miles out of the Volt. And my calculation is pretty optimistic — what if it rains?
Maybe that meets your needs, maybe it doesn’t. It doesn’t meet my needs. On the other hand, maybe you’re right that someone will come up with a 100% efficient solar panel that reflects less light than a black hole — that would change the picture dramatically.
But, personally, I’d recommend covering the roof of your garage with conventional solar panels and using a grid-tie or a giant battery-bank in order to charge the car at night. It’s not cheap, but it will make you energy-independent!
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:44 pm)Re: My post 136 and related subsequent posts 144, 146, 154, etc…..
Sorry, guys…. I should have explained that GM’s ads for the Plug-in VUE are currently merely claiming its EV-only range will be “greater than 10 miles”. My statements in post 136 (i.e., 35-40mi range, etc) reflect the inherent capability of the Plug-in VUE’s architecture when equipped with a larger battery as an added cost option.
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Jun 11th, 2008 (11:46 pm)PS to my post located immediately above this: If Bob Lutz has said the VUE’s EV-only range was limited to 8 miles he was either mistaken or misquoted —GM has consistently said “greater than 10 miles” in print media and press conferences. And yes, GM has also consistently said the plug-in VUE is due out prior to the Volt.
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Jun 12th, 2008 (6:42 am)#151 Morgan
Marketing a particular vehicle is such a fundamental point, as individual customers buy cars, not brands. Right now it looks like GM marketing is getting the car on TV, which is good, but insofar as selling is just dwadling, waiting around for the Volt to be just another car at a dealership.
Even so, as a corporation it is not enough for GM to make an exciting product, GM has to sell it — not the brand, not some fuzzy image, but the Volt. Remembering the saying “sell the sizzle, not the steak” I’m thinking that the time to sell Volts is right now when the sizzle is crackling hot.
How many? I think I could sell 100K within a year (meaning get $1000 deposits for that many) even though not a single one will be delivered in that time frame and the MSRP is not yet determined. GM marketing has creative people who know more than I do and no doubt can do a lot better — right now it can be done. So, optimistically, maybe they will couple the first viewings of what the production Volt looks like with the announcement of their plan for taking deposits, that is, selling them.
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Jun 12th, 2008 (8:34 am)nasaman 167
It’s a VIDEO of Bob saying it, which can be viewed at GMNext. I know you go there.
T
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