The History of the Chevy Volt - Have They Made a Huge Mistake?
One of the most comprehensive and personal articles ever written about the Chevy Volt program has appeared in the Atlantic Monthly.
The author, Jonathan Rauch, who called his article Electro-Shock Therapy, details the epic struggle that has become the production of the Chevy Volt by GM.
All the key players involved in the project from Bob Lutz and Rick Wagoner, through the designers and engineers are profiled. He documents interviews with each, and spends considerable time outlining the birth of the Volt project from Lutz’ outrage on learning that Tesla planned to build car he wanted GM to, and his charging Jon Laucker with the engineering design of the iCar as it was known at the time.
He quotes a competitors anonymous executive as claiming GM is “making a huge mistake”, essentially betting the farm on a project that stretches the imagination and breaks every corporate rule to do so.
In the end, the author speculates on price and the November 2010 target.
Fittingly, the story actually ends at the Volt Nation event which was organized through my effort and this site, unfortunately not mentioned by name.
Aside from that, a very enlightening article which I highly recommend reading.
And yes this effort is clearly a stretch, of moon-landing proportions, but if GM were making a mistake it would have been for all the right reasons. And I don’t think they are.
Source (Atlantic Monthly)
Popularity: 9%
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- Wall Street Journal Opinion - Chevy Volt Just a Political Tool
- Is GM Really Building the Volt So it Can Sell More Gas Guzzlers?
- Chevy Volt Curb Weight Around 3520 Pounds
(15 votes, average: 4.4 out of 5) 
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June 9th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
GM has made many mistakes (Crushing the EV-1 in favor of Hummers, letting the Japanese manufacturers beat GM and is only NOW catching up.) The Volt isn’t a mistake. But it took a massive market shift from SUV’s to light cars for GM to realize that people wanted to get away from oil.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
The Volt is definitely not a mistake. It’s an idea whose time has come. Congrats to GM and all the men and women who have developed the concept and worked to make it a reality. Congrats also to GM-Volt.com and all of you that keep us all informed!
June 9th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
It would be a huge mistake NOT to produce this vehicle/platform.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Looks like Compact Power is indeed the one to beat:
[quote]
One of two suppliers, a company called Compact Power (a subsidiary of a big South Korean chemical and advanced-materials company, LG Chem), had delivered two copies of its version of the battery, and on the bench they were testing brilliantly. “They may not look beautiful,” Turner said—the battery was a six-foot-long T-shaped object from which wires, clamps, and circuit boards protruded—“but as far as the data goes, they’re the best I’ve worked with.” Heat is a problem with lithium-ion batteries, but this one was staying cool even when run hard—and the cooling system had yet to be attached.
[/quote].
June 9th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Decisions are made , as they must be, based on the best available data at the time. The only realistic technical obstacle to producing the Volt was exactly the same one that has prevented practical electric cars for over a century at this point. We all know that the battery is the guts and critical element of an electric car.. You ain’t got a practical, cost-effective battery, you ain’t got no viable electric car. We ain’t yet got a practical battery, but we have one good enough to support a limited range, which turns out to be plenty big enough to destroy the gasoline industry, and a long enough lifespan that the battery costs don’t make $8 gasoline seem pretty reasonable. We’re winning the battle simply by taking advantage of the fact that virtually every second of a car’s road life is spent within 20 miles of home.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Quoting the author:
>> Existing hybrids are gasoline-powered cars, with an electric assist
>> to improve the gas mileage. The Volt will be an electric-powered
>> car, with a gasoline assist to increase the battery’s range.
I like the clear, succinct way he put that. It ought to be standard fare for explaining to folks why this car will be different.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
#4 OhmExcited,
I don’t think that the A123 battery had arrived yet for testing at this point.
June 9th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
This article actually is a partial answer to what I have been hoping to read: a behind the scenes account of the Volt project like the best-selling book, “The Soul of a New Machine.” It is a good article.
However, I think the article exaggerates the consequences of a failure of the Volt project to GM.
The fact is that GM has invested heavily in all of the alternatives: they lead in ethanol, they have excellent dual-mode hybrids, they have mild hybrids, they have fuel-cell projects, they have small turbo charged engines coming, and they have even done quick tweaks like the Cobalt XFE. Basically, GM has invested in all possible alternatives!
Moreover, vehicle elctricification does seem inevitable, and so the expertise developed during mass production of the Volt will be applicable to numerous models in the future.
June 9th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
I’m looking forward to November 2010 so I can drop Jonathan Rauch a little post titled: I’m making a note here…HUGE SUCCESS!!!
Because if GM pulls this off (and so far all indications are they will), it can’t help but be a huge success.
June 9th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
“essentially betting the farm on a project that stretches the imagination and breaks every corporate rule to do so.”
*** **** ****
I think it’s about time GM broke some rules! How many rules do you think that the Chevette or Cavalier broke with mixes of SAE and metric bolts and whatever else GM had in it’s parts bin at the time to throw these cultural warriors together?
And never forget what they said about Boeing in the late 60’s when they put together the 747 even w/o a plant to build it. What on earth do you expect competitors to say?
June 9th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Grizzly has one “l”….Grizzly has one “l”…..where is that circle of chalk on the blackboard where I put my nose?
June 9th, 2008 at 10:24 pm
The Volt has the potential to be a big mistake. The only thing that is driving it toward a realistic money making opportunity for GM is the fact that gas is over $4/gal for many Americans, and they are sick of spending all this money for personal travel.
If OPEC increased production and we see gas fall to $3.00, or even $3.50, Americans will happy fork out the dough and GM will have a(nother) massive failure to overcome.
I’m expecting that any move by OPEC won’t be enough to lower the price any more than $.50. I think by the time the Volt is available for most people and affordable (2015+), gas will be so much that a switch is not only economical, but also necessary if people want to continue this lifestyle of personal transportation.
June 9th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Good, interesting article about the Volt program. With gas at $4 a gallon now and maybe still climbing, the Chevy Volt is definitely “an idea whose time has come” … no doubt about it. It will be the OTHER car companies who are making a mistake if they are NOT developing a plug-in (series) hybrid like the Volt in the next few years.
I bet GM is kicking themselves for not trying to get the Volt program going in high gear about a year or two ago. You can really turn your company around fast when you have a well designed product available at just the right time. With gas prices going like they are, it’s definitely the right time for a car like the Volt. It’s like a surfer catching the perfect glassy 6 foot wave after he’s been waiting for one all weekend …. you can ride it all the way to the shoreline and have a great time doing it.
I’m hoping the Volt is going to take off in popularity like the iPhone has for Apple. If GM plays their cards right, they just might do that … and get back the market share and success that they used to have. I’m pulling for them. I’m saving my money to get me a Volt as soon as they come out. It’ll be great to tell people in 30-40 years when I’m old and gray that I bought me one of the first mainstream electric cars when they first came out.
June 9th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
The Volt should of been on the roads for the last several years, but GM made the choice of building Hummers. I would love to complain about GM doing the SUV/truck craze, but I think they see the light.
Remember Toyota being all green, and whatnot? What is that thing called a Tundra? $4+/gallon of gas with a truck that MIGHT get 18MPG/hwy is not the type of milage I would want, outside a $45k+ pricetag.. Sure the Prius helped Toyota, but they don’t believe the Volt will be a success.
We could import 3 times as much oil as we do now, but guess what… We can only refine so much oil, and we still have a LOT of people wanting to get rich for something we shouldn’t be using as much anyway! Building more refineries isn’t the answer, the Volt is a step in the right direction, but far from being there.
June 9th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
“The PR guys want something more sexy and dramatic, a singular point for our message.”
“It had to be remarkable: a game-changer.”
“In February 2006, Lauckner pulled together a brainstorming team that included, unusually, a public-relations man, Chris Preuss.”
“The group proposed a plug-in that would drive at least 10 miles on a charge. It would be a cool, stylish, high-tech car, marketed to trendsetters. They called it the iCar. ”
“But a Prius-style hybrid, however well executed, would amount to a mere me-too.”
“GM’s brainstormers thought they saw a gap in the Japanese line and relished the thought of doing to Toyota what Toyota had done to them. ”
“They run ads, for instance in this magazine, touting the Volt in the present tense, as if it already existed.”
“The pencil pushers had done none of the marketing and cost studies that typically precede a product launch…”
“No business case, but let’s get this thing into production-ready form, and we’ll worry about the cost and investment and the profitability later.”
There it is, right there. Of course it is huge mistake. GM is talking about 10,000 units at a time when Toyota/Honda will already be producing millions per year.
GM is completely blinded by Prius-envy.
June 9th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
#10 Grizzlly
I agree. At some point in time when you are down you have to break the rules to get back on your feet. This looks like a good bet to me.
Take Care
Arch
June 9th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Wow, I read that article, and it does remind me of the first weeks / months of a radically new design effort. I’ve led engineers through the frightening new territory of high risk development, and it is not a place they like to be. It’s only at the point where they see the light at the end of the tunnel, that they finally learn this new method of development, learn to trust the management not to punish them for failure and learn to ask for things they need, confident that they will get it.
Yes, there will be stress and exhaustion. I’ve walked into flailing organizations, moved them into new processes and through radical development efforts, but once on the other side, the workflow smooths out and the people will have gained new skills and new confidence in themselves, their teammates and their management. GM’s decision to move the Volt into production was most likely the affirmation everyone needed to know that what they were doing was succeeding.
Looking back, it’s always sad to think how organizations may have languished, and I resent having had to move people through such a gut-wrenching ordeal, but am happy to see them reach the other side. Sometimes, these are just the cards we are dealt, and you have to push through. Hopefully, with a few Volt mules running around the test tracks and streets, everyone is feeling good about the program.
June 9th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
Let’s review - here we are in the 21st century, relying on the near identical technology that replaced horse and buggy gussied up a bit of course over the years. These fire piston-driven technology was ridden along by a plentiful and cheap American resource seeming virtually endless over 100 years ago to now this dwindling, rapidly priced resource owned by Nations who hate our values, form of government, religion, and democratic right to choose governmance.
Yea, dumb mistake. Crush the Volt. Come on, get serious. Long overdue. The first cars were electric for goodness sake.
June 9th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
The Volt is definitely not a mistake. If you go back to January of 2007 when the Volt was kicked off, gasoline was at the what seemed high price of $2.20 a gallon.
It has nearly doubled since then…and now $2.20 a gallon sounds cheap. By summer $4 gas will sound cheap as it approaches $5 in some areas. The Volt is sounding like a better and better idea.
My questions is where is the Concept Camaro? It’s taking longer than the Volt to get to the market. It will be a mistake by the time it comes out with it’s big thirsty V8.
June 9th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
One great thing about EVs and the silent instantaneous torque is that once one drives this they’ll wonder why the F… we’ve been driving ICE vehicles for this long.
The up side to this is that regardless of what Opec does to try and curb the momentum, EVs will be in big demand. Like so many things it’s not easy to shift paradigms, anyone remember the effort in the 70’s to move from the King’s system to metric? We abandoned that, but this one is here to stay!
June 9th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Great story reading and the best is yet to come….
June 10th, 2008 at 12:04 am
I wouldn’t say the Volt is a mistake, I just think it is a bit overdue. I can’t wait to see them driving around, maybe I’ll have enough for quite a big down payment when they reach showrooms. I am definitely going to buy one, or a vehicle with the same capabilities
16.
jscott1000
“My questions is where is the Concept Camaro? It’s taking longer than the Volt to get to the market. It will be a mistake by the time it comes out with it’s big thirsty V8.”
The Camaro concept is going to be going into production soon hitting showrooms in early 09′. It is about the same time frame as Volt as well: Camaro Jan.06 -Jan.09. Volt Jan.07 -Nov.10 about 3 years for each. Also not every muscle car is a V8, many of the mustangs I see driving around are usually V6s because, of course an eight cyclinder car is becoming very unpractical for a daily driver. As for me for the time being, I will stick with my V6 Camaro as it is alright for gas(not perfect, but good). But when the Volt comes out I’ll keep it in the garage and take it out for a spin only on special occasions and use the Volt as much as possible. That is just my two cents.
June 10th, 2008 at 12:08 am
Wow …good article! I really appreciate GM being so open about the Volt’s progress. Lyle seems to have great posts everyday.
June 10th, 2008 at 12:12 am
I don’t believe this car can fail. It won’t
June 10th, 2008 at 12:13 am
One of the reasons I like the Volt so much is for what it says about General Motors and the North American manufacturers in general. Given the chance they can be the among the best, if not the best, in the world. For too many years very talented people were working under directives that shadowed their talent. GM has liberated that talent.
Look at the new Malibu, NA car of the year, JD power 1st in Initial Quality. One of the biggest upgrades in the automotive business. I can’t wait to see what a ‘moon shoot’ will produce.
June 10th, 2008 at 12:30 am
I don’t think the 2 mode/Prius tech has a long life. The Volt is the answer to peak oil. We are now in the foothills.
Ven/Mex exports to the states are off 30+% (anualized) over the year so far. The Middle East is 30 days sailing time away instead of 5. (theoildrum.com)
There just are not that many spare tankers, crude reserves are going down nearly every week this year. (EIA statistics)
IMHO GM would go bust without the Volt.
Kubel: I doubt OPEC can, at this stage, increase production. I just hope they can bring enough on stream to offset production declines. I note they hove NO megaprojects scheduled after 2012.
GM Volt Fan: GM has had the Volt project in high gear. Instead of the industry standard 5 year roll out, for a completely new vehicle, they are doing it in 3.
They have already started on Volt version two, so I just don’t see how they could have done things any better, or faster.
I note, Toyota, which initially announced a Prius to compete with the Volt has backed away from matching the Volts aggressive time frame, and now says fleet testing to start in 2010, production later.
Finally, GM wouldn’t have made Hummers if people had not brought them. I really believe any 2010 Volt will be a collectors item after a few years as the E-flex tech is rolled out across the fleet.
June 10th, 2008 at 12:34 am
This story would make a great movie!
June 10th, 2008 at 12:43 am
The only mistake is that I don’t have one yet. Cars like this are way over due for too many reasons mentioned a million times on Lyle’s web site (here!). Wind, solar, hydro, geothermal are all overdue to power our electric, cars and to heat our houses. Is GM taking a risk putting everthing in this car? Yes. Is it a smart risk? Yes! IBM bet everything it had in the 1960s on computers. What if that didn’t happen. Where were the world be in terms of computing today? Someone’s got to take the leap. Looks like GM is the one to do it. I wish them luck, but somehow I don’t think they need it because this change is so obviously needed.
June 10th, 2008 at 1:31 am
Fantastic Article!!!!
Thanks Lyle.
June 10th, 2008 at 1:45 am
Hello everyone. My “cheapest gas” gas station just hit $4.49 9/10s here in California. I just finished the 11 o’clock news and they reported a San Francisco bay area city (Redwood City) was at $4.99 9/10s for Regular Unleaded.
What will bring down the price of gas will be a stronger dollar. Oil is bought in dollars and the dollar is in the basement. (One needs more dollars to buy whatever.) The dollar will not get stronger until one, we are out of Iraq and the hemoraging of our tax dollars slows and two, we can find a way to balance the federal budget. And remember as the dollar becomes stronger oil companies will simply take a bigger profit which means we will see gasoline peaking at $5.50 to $5.80 a gallon (in California) and finally settling (second year of Obama’s presidency) around $4.75.
In other words the middle class is scr***d!
Go GM!
June 10th, 2008 at 3:11 am
Great article by Jonathan Rauch.
With this little irony, how the EV1’s limited 60 mi. range on the test track inspired the ICE-generator set up in the first place. Looking back “the iCar (Volt) would be the lineal descendant of that once-orphaned test car.” Ha Ha, sweet!;-)
GM with it’s new high speed low drag approach can’t loose on this one!
June 10th, 2008 at 3:24 am
Anybody who reads this article should take it with a HUGE grain of salt. The author quotes Menahem Anderman in the first page. Obviously he didn’t do his homework. To find out more about Menahem Anderman read Menahem Anderman: Enough Already!
http://plugsandcars.blogspot.com/2007/12/menahem-anderman-enough-already.html
This guy is a complete fraud and has done almost as much to harm the electric automobile industry as ZAP! He is a fraud, and quoting him is a disservice to the Atlantic Monthly!
June 10th, 2008 at 5:38 am
moon-landing proportions? Lyle, I rarely disagree, but this is one of those times.
We want this car, but a moon-shot IMO would be a involve a vehicle with a complete rejection of oil. This is a risk, no doubt. But in today’s world, the greater the risk the greater the reward. Look at Tesla, and then look at the Volt. I hate to say it, but I’m almost more impressed with the 250 mile range of the Roadster. This is no moon shot.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:03 am
I don’t see anything stopping the Volt. I think the first generation Volt will be a success that will lead to an even better second generation.
One pet peeve I have that goes throughout this thread is the use of the word range. So many people think of range with electric cars as a hard limit.
You never hear that the Hummer has a 250 mile range, that’s because you fuel it up when it’s low, the range is only limited by the gas availability.
The same is true for the Volt. I wish people that wrote articles would clarify that there is no range limit, just a switching from nearly free EV to better than average normal car usage.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:24 am
#12 Kubel is right that the Volt can possibly turn into a big mistake. The questions that none of us can answer all start with “how many?” That is, how many batteries can be produced within a reasonable time and price, how many customers are willing to part with $40K for a very small car, how many onlookers are going to be attracted by its styling, how many aggravating problems are going to turn up with such a new concept? From a shareholder perspective, I have to think “How many dollars profit can this car make?” and that one is really risky. So yes, the Volt project has a lot of risks, because we can only guess at the answers, and we all can see that GM’s crystal ball is cloudy too. Even so, the Volt is a wonderfully good idea, and one with a great chance of becoming a super success.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:26 am
Interesting article, great read. I think it was as fair and balanced as can be expected.
And lets face it, this project has significant risks both financial and schedule wise. I realize we are all fans of the car but “it will succeed because it has to” just isn’t being realistic. Yes, I believe it will succeed. But we cant ignore that there are numerous risks along the way and I think the article pointed that out.
Great read.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:33 am
The only mistake is not putting out a serial hybrid sooner… but hindsight is 20/20. The NiMH batteries have been out for a decade and were good enough to make the e-flex design a success 10 years ago. Sure the range for all electric wouldn’t have been anywhere near 40 miles but the prius doesn’t have an all electric range of 40 either and Toyota can’t make enough of them, can they.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:37 am
I love how the article says the EV1 was so disappointing that GM had to crush them, yet people were clamoring to buy them after their leases had expired.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:37 am
A huge risk for the Volt is that it will be borderline in terms of value to the customer at $4/gallon even if the batteries are $10k and the consumer uses the full 40-mile range everyday. For someone like me, who only has 15 miles of driving everyday, the value proposition is not good at all. If fuel goes back to $3 or lower the Volt is in big trouble in terms of value to the customer. At $5/gallon, things look better. The market for the Volt is likely to be the same as for the early Prius: people who have long commutes and people with non-economic reasons for buying.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:43 am
pdt #34
Gas prices will only go up. I think it will hit $5 per gallon and fall back to $4 maybe. I don’t understand how the speculators on Wall Street have driven the price so high, but until we start increasing our production of crude domestically gas prices will continue these wild swings and we will be at the mercy of OPEC.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:50 am
No mistake being made.
-1- GM needed to stretch
-2-if they are successful…which they will eventually will be…..because of the lower air pollution its going to be man-dated by the feds. Not that I like this sort of thing but I will like the clean air in large cities.
-3- The japs are following suit and you can bet your sweet ass they are going to stick with it now so even if it was a mistake before they have no choice but stick it out now.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:50 am
28 Dave B…..
Sorry, Dave, you’ve hit one of my hot buttons! The Volt program is CLEARLY analogous to the Apollo moon-shot as well as to the Manhatten project long before it. Here’s why….
Taken as a whole, Apollo was NOT a science project although it produced countless scientific breakthroughs. Apollo was an extremely ambitious scientific and engineering program that many of the world’s smartest rocket scientists, inertial guidance engineers, orbital analysts, etc agreed should be technically feasible, and agreed to undertake albeit on an extremely tough schedule. (A “science project” approach to a moon landing would have been more like using a launch booster employing a sled launched from extremely-long inclined rails instead of the conventional vertical launch approach used.) Apollo had a very specific goal –-to beat the USSR to the moon— and it had to get it done in less than 10 years to convince the Russians we had developed space technology vastly superior to their own. The alternative (some said only half jokingly) might be that we’d all have to learn to read, write & speak Russian IF we survived the onslaught of hundreds of nuclear missiles launched from 90 miles away even before we‘d really gotten “up to speed” on Apollo (in the early 1960’s).
The same is true of the earlier Manhatten project, whose participants might have preferred to treat atomic fission as simply a milestone on the way to nuclear fusion (which it is) but the extreme schedule constraints forced us instead to develop useable atomic bombs as a way to win WWII with the Japanese (who we knew would never surrender under normal circumstances …..i.e., unless we demonstrated overwhelming superiority.)
We didn’t undertake either the development of an atomic bomb or the moon landing by creating a whole new “art”, but by significantly advancing the existing state-of-the-art ….and by doing it on a highly-aggressive schedule in both cases. As you say, in general “the greater the risk, the greater the reward” …..but I can assure you that both Harry Truman and Jack Kennedy were convinced that there was a good probability the risks we were undertaking would actually reap the desired rewards. And so are GM’s Rick Wagoner, Bob Lutz and the Board of Directors!
Be patient, folks —we’ll find practical ways to stop burning petroleum, but it’ll take us a while longer!
June 10th, 2008 at 6:51 am
DCM what are the risk? I just don’t see any! It is not dependant on battery technology to be a success. And designing and developing the actual car takes time and money but isn’t actually inventing any radical fusion technology.
The only thing I think GM could/should have done differently would have been to develop the serial hybrid years ago and then when the batteries became available then implement them. People don’t forget that a 2kw volt using NiMH batteries gets better gas milage than the prius. Where is all the percieved risk. I just don’t see it.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:53 am
This is just another anti-GM propaganda made to look genuine with a lot of twisted facts. It is dumb to keep hammering the EV-V. Anyone with half a brain can figure out the EV-V was ahead of it’s time with cheap gasoline at the time and it would not have been a seller. GM is in business to make money and it can not afford to make a cars that very few would buy. It is quite obvious the writer, Jonathan Rauch, is pro Toyota. If there were anything he could twist or exaggerate, he did so. GM never had 60% of all the car business in the US, ever. His article is not worthy of reading and is just another piece of garbage.
Today GM can look at idiots like him and have a good laugh.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:54 am
It doesn’t matter if gas plummets to $2 gallon, people that I know are all sick of pumping gas into their cars and funding countries that don’t like us. Every time you fill up, whether it was at $2 gallon or not, the up and down swing every week gets old and tired. No consistency and it pisses people off.
The Volt won’t fail at whatever price oil and gas is at come 2010. The inevitable is coming and that is that oil is a resource that will one day run out. We need to keep reserves around for hundreds of years into the future for pharmaceuticals, plastics and a host of other products that can’t be made any other way. We shouldn’t be burning it to propel cars!
June 10th, 2008 at 6:59 am
Lyle — The article shows what an impact the VoltNation event had. It certainly impressed the article’s author. Congratulations — great work.
June 10th, 2008 at 7:07 am
My wife has a good saying. She talks about dinosaurs, and how the dinosaurs are fighting to keep things from changing.
Printed newspapers - dinosaurs
Oil companies - dinosaurs
Gas Cars - dinosaurs
What we are witnessing can be compared to what people witnessed with the advent of the Model “T” and the death of the horse and buggy.
June 10th, 2008 at 7:12 am
#47 Brad G
Completely and totally agree! It will change everything long term.
June 10th, 2008 at 7:21 am
>> IMHO GM would go bust without the Volt.
2% is the optimistic inventory projection for 4 years from now.
98% of their production (all the other vehicles) will be what?
June 10th, 2008 at 7:34 am
As I read the articles and comments on this website I feel sad that America has to be forced into looking for a better way to power our chosen mode of transportation, the personnel car! We have all know for years that the current situation of high fuel costs was coming and chose not to give it any credence. Hopefully the Volt is a step in the right direction and our federal government will step back and let private industry do what it does best, give the consumer what they want and need.
June 10th, 2008 at 7:46 am
I’ve owned a number of cars and never a GM. Growing up in the 80’s and driving in the 90’s, GM was always a lesser brand with poor style and inferior quality. The last page of this article hit the nail on the head (although I wouldn’t compare this to Obama), this car offers me the hope of getting off imported oil and doing something great for our country. My only hope is that gas doesn’t go back down to a dollar and people forget why we NEED this car. I thought the comparison to Apple was perfect. I only hope the Volt can do for the auto industry what the Ipod did for music. Good luck GM, you’ll see me and wallet in 2010
June 10th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Thanks Lyle. That was an impressive article by Jonathan Rauch with lots of interesting inside informations that sums up every stage Volt has gone through so far.
June 10th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Lyle, thanks for bringing the article to our attention.
GM, thanks for the spectacular effort! I hope the battery experts can invent the changes needed to make the Volt battery affordable.
June 10th, 2008 at 7:58 am
I second your thoughts Gsned57 #51…
Never owned a GM car and have always been partial to German engineering and currently enjoy the ultimate driving machine (BMW) and I will not hesitate to spend the money to buy this car.
Even if gas becomes affordable again, which it wont but even if … the Volt isnt about “What would be my yearly savings in gas?” its about reduction of the dependency on gas!
I want to be a guinea pig and like the article’s conclusion…
“I just want to be a part of this.”
June 10th, 2008 at 8:22 am
The right path and the easy path are rarely the same. The Volt is probably the right path. Real change is always monumental.
June 10th, 2008 at 8:23 am
Wow! That is was a good read–it chronicled the story of the Volt very well up to this point. I’m judging the time of writing to have been 3-4 months ago. Since then, the Volt mules have commenced in testing phase, so quite a bit has happened even since the article was written.
Both scary and encouraging at the same time to hear some of the GM people speaking their minds about the development of this car. To those people: Thank you for your tireless efforts—we appreciate all of you!
June 10th, 2008 at 8:42 am
I didn’t like that article. I would like 10 minutes of my life back.
GO VOLT GO!
June 10th, 2008 at 8:53 am
I thought the article was great. It helps show the real change in GM’s management and how they realize despite all costs GM needs this car.
What if GM loses money on the Volt but the publicity helps them sell and make lots of money on electric Malibus, electric Cobalts, electric Colorado pickups etc, all utilizing techonology from the Volt.
June 10th, 2008 at 8:56 am
I thought the article was actually fairly well written…and offers a pretty objective viewpoint.
The author thinks GM rushed into it, backs it up with facts/quotes. He thinks they probably won’t make the deadline and states why he thinks that way. He thinks it will get done…but is concerned there is no business case behind it…which there isn’t.
Nothing new here, just another angle..with some interesting tidbits thrown in.
June 10th, 2008 at 8:58 am
“GM is “making a huge mistake”, essentially betting the farm on a project that stretches the imagination and breaks every corporate rule to do so.”
And what’s so wrong with this?
June 10th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Brad
The Volt is only the beginning of things to come. The writing is on the wall. If the battery technology works out, the DNA of cars and trucks will be change.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:12 am
#58, statik,
I’m well familiar with this design approach, and while initial milestones seem to slip, the overall program finishes much earlier than expected. The author wrote his article too soon, and should speak with many of the right people today, with mules driving around.
The business case is, GM will be around, while Ford and Chrysler try to remain solvent. As the E-REV platform shifts to more vehicles, the business case will become apparent, but taken over a single product, no new tech could be justified. Eventually, all GM’s vehicles will be either flex fuel, BEV or E-REV using flex fuel or fuel cell. Only then will you see the significance of the Volt.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Would a Volt work without the battery–if the battery dies, would you still be able to drive it on gas or other fuel?
June 10th, 2008 at 9:15 am
This article reminds me of what the American car companies were saying about Toyota when the Prius came out. They were criticizing Toyota because the car did not make money in the beginning and, their reasoning went, Toyota was therefore making a poor business decision.
Aside from the fact that my personal reaction was like: “So what — they are sacrficing profit to better the world and they are being criticized for that?” — Hindsight has shown that the critics were wrong. The Prius was a great idea and probably paved the way for the Volt. Now Toyota are the ones being stupid, for mocking the Volt. Funny how the tables are turned now. Laugh Toyota, laugh, but even though I am the proud owner of an early Prius and a 2nd generation model, I will trade them in for the Volt.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:25 am
The long and the short of it for me was when the article author said that down-side for the time frame was now months, not years. So we can be pretty sure that GM will get to the moon first. The question is, “how far ahead will they be?” How many months ahead of the major competitors (the ones that can actually build tens of thousands of cars) will they be? How many can they sell before the competition catches up (and so establish segment dominance ala Prius)? Will they be able to take that lead and use it to make the technology profitable more quickly than their competitors?
Getting a Volt into dealer show-rooms is not the end of the race, it is really just the beginning. Viewed from that perspective Nov. 2010 v. Mar. 2011 is less important. Putting out a car that is not synonymous “lemon” in the mind of the public is more important.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Mark @ 64 is correct. The Volt must be dead on accurate and fully reliable, right out of the box. Nothing will short circuit this whole program more quickly than a poorly executed product.
I just hope it doesn’t look like a hairball. The tech is only part of the game with this car.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:35 am
62 Ben…
You ask, “Would a Volt work without the battery–if the battery dies, would you still be able to drive it on gas or other fuel?”
ANSWER: YES!!! ….and it also still works if you run out of gas or the range extender fails for any other reason! One of the most remarkable (but so far unheralded) features of the E-REV architecture is that you’ll rarely if ever need to call AAA —despite the fact the Volt has only a fraction of the number of parts needed in a conventional car!*
*ATTN: GM MARKETING!
June 10th, 2008 at 9:46 am
MarkinWI said:
“Getting a Volt into dealer show-rooms is not the end of the race, it is really just the beginning. Putting out a car that is not synonymous “lemon” in the mind of the public is more important.”
So true. We all get caught up in the deadline they have set forth, and that is an extremely important point, but what seems to be of higher value in my eyes is the quality of the Volt. Ultimately, if the delivered Volts are failing or having considerable problems, then deadlines and price and all that other jazz are out the window. The car will sink if it’s not made well right out of the gate.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:46 am
If the Volt hits the market, GM stock will skyrocket. This is the future of the car industry and GM. The sales potential for plug-in hyrbrids is nearly unlimited.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:51 am
All the other major car builders are in this race as much as GM.. Ford has hybrids out right now and I’ll bet they are working to beat GM’s 2010 rollout with an electric car of their own..Same with Chyrsler. As for all of the car makers…. even without an electric type car… their new lines will be getting 60 + MPG with different engine technologies (stuff they have had around for years and now are finally using).
June 10th, 2008 at 9:54 am
_____________________________________________________
2008 [06]-07-08-09-10-11-12
2009 01-02-03-04-05-06-07-08-09-10-11-12
2010 01-02-03-04-05-06-07-08-09-10-11 Hello VOLT. Goodbye Gas.
_____________________________________________________
June 10th, 2008 at 10:01 am
I wanted a new PRIUS! Visited the showroom multiple times. Now I am saving my Money, I can survive driving my ‘98 Cavalier a few more years. I am putting my Prius payment in the BANK. That should give me a hell of a down payment on my VOLT
June 10th, 2008 at 10:06 am
People all across the world are having trouble with energy prices and energy independence. “Green” is in and it is here to stay. It is fashionable, economical, and essential to human life.
The only risk with the VOLT is not making it! While it will only encompass a small fraction of total auto production it most likely will be a slippery slope that I’m sure none of us mind falling down.
I do a great deal of work with Samsung in South Korea and if LG Chem gets this contract because of a better battery, I think everyone will be more than happy with the Korean commitment. They are very hard working people with very demanding companies. LG will do anything to make the VOLT the standard of the world.
June 10th, 2008 at 10:08 am
I just want to make 2 points about Risk and Competition.
1) RISK. Many corporate executives look at the risk of doing something new. If the new way is risky, they usually don’t do it. But this is not the proper way to evaluate risk. You also have to look at the risk of the status quo. I think this is why GM got into trouble in the past. For GM right now, the risk with the Volt is less than the risk of the status quo, so that’s why they are doing it. For Toyota, the status quo looks pretty good, so they won’t do anything daring.
2) COMPETITION. Right now, I haven’t seen anything like the Volt on the horizon.
a) Toyota will modify the Prius to make a plug-in, but the all electric range will be less than 10 miles, and the gas engine will come on at highway speeds. Basically, Toyota’s plug-ins will still be about saving gas, not eliminating it. GM will also have plug-ins of the same type. I’m not sure how motivated I would be to spend thousands of dollars extra and plug in every night for the relatively insignificant gas savings.
b) Fuel Cell cars and pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are both before their time. The infrastructure is just not there, so these won’t catch on with the mass market anytime soon.
c) The Aptera series hybrid has only 1 rear wheel, which is fine for their target California market, but not usable on snow or ice, which rules out 3/4 of the U.S. market.
d) The Tesla Bluestar could be serious competition, but they are way behind schedule on this, so we probably won’t see that until 2013. If the Volt works well, I have to wonder if the Tesla Bluestar will ever be built. Elon Musk has stated repeatedly that he will not compete head on with a major car company.
Did I miss anything?
June 10th, 2008 at 10:11 am
“GM is “making a huge mistake”, essentially betting the farm on a project that stretches the imagination and breaks every corporate rule to do so.”
So did Boeing with the 747… and the 777 and now the 787. They were all radical concepts, first superjumbo, extra long range with only 2 engines, and now fuel efficiency and carbon fiber composites. Each one put the company in jeopardy but thank goodness they took those risks beacuse each one succeded. Certainly with fuel prices the way they are the 787 has “success” written all over it.
There is nothing wrong with a company taking such huge risks. It’s nothing new!!!
June 10th, 2008 at 10:19 am
How can GM turn the Volt into a huge mistake? Let me count the ways:
If they don’t price them in the mainstream
If they don’t aggressively market them with savings analysis
It they don’t include savings analysis on the window sticker
If they focus on “green” instead of “save”
If they are under powered, feel cheap or make too much noise.
If they don’t include touch screen displays which are software upgradeable
If they don’t keep VERY close build tolerances & use good materials
If they don’t properly warranty & service them
If they build too few or allow dealer gouging
If they put a huge shifter between the front seats of this automatic car
If they push a fuel which is NOT available such as H2
If they don’t allow electricity to be pulled from the batteries for home backup power
If gen II does NOT have V2G or gen I can not be upgraded to V2G
If they make me wait for mine!
June 10th, 2008 at 10:21 am
#73 Scott…
The adage….”nothing ventured, nothing gained” is so appropriate to what GM is doing.
I’ve been saving for this car for months and already contacted my dealer with a desire to be put on a waiting list there. If they get two in, I want one of them!!!!
June 10th, 2008 at 10:43 am
#75 Kevin R
What did your Chevy dealer say when you asked to be put on a Volt waiting list? I wrote the largest dealer in my county on this topic some time ago, and never heard a peep from them.
June 10th, 2008 at 10:47 am
#61 Jason M. Hendler
“I’m well familiar with this design approach, and while initial milestones seem to slip, the overall program finishes much earlier than expected”
From what I can remember/dig sources on, this is what was expected:
Volt to be in production in May 2010
http://gm-volt.com/2007/05/07/volt-to-be-produced-in-36-months/
Volt less than $30,000
http://gm-volt.com/2007/05/17/volt-to-be-less-than-30000/
Working prototype by end of 2007
http://gm-volt.com/2007/03/06/gm-reiterates-2010-target-launch-date/
Volt to have 750 mile range
http://www.google.com/cse?cx=partner-pub-7986326907675573%3A7rgmnn-9vcn&q=750+mile
Then you have other random oddities like production numbers as high as 100K, then 60K in 2010.
Which “part of the overall program finishing much earlier than expected” would you like to go on record for?
GM’s only business case right now is hoping that the US economy turns around. Even though GM is going to produce the Volt, it has zero plans for profitability for on it, or any of the ‘E-Flex’ platform units until it shifts to Europe…in 2012? 2013? That is a eternity if they continue to lose 2-3 billion a quarter. With GM’s debt load they can do nothing to solve their own problems, and they know it.
The Volt’s very existance is on the back of, ‘no short-mid term plan to save ourselves’
What GM is doing is trying to get a leg up for it’s “future existence,” it is spending it’s remaining resources on the future with no thought to how to pay for it.
In my opinion, they are resigned to Chapter 11/government bailout and they are going to spend the dollars they have remaining on tech for ‘post-Chapter 11′ GM and they hope to let current shareholder/debtors hold the bag (like a few posters here).
Actually, if you call that their ‘business case,’ it’s probably their best option. It’s what I would do if I was them too.
June 10th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Regarding price, I think it is a very safe bet that GM will be able to lobby congress for a sizable tax credit for this baby…at least for the first year or two (lower volume) of production. Makes a lot more sense to fund these cars than to fund corn-based ethanol (for example). Eventually these cars won’t need a subsidy but it is in America’s strategic best interests to promote American made REEV’s. Love that the battery company will build a plant in the U.S…..hmm American made batteries vs. imported oil.
An aside, one of things I love about this site is the interest in this car is more about reducing oil purchases from those who hate us than it is about green. Both are important but I’m much more motivated by the former…and willing to pay up for it too…so I’m buying one whether there is a subsidy or not.
June 10th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Reasons why the Volt will NOT Fail:
1.) Personal Independance from oil (this is freedom)
2.) 40 miles of driving without breathing cancer causing exhaust that leaks into your car.
3.) Cheaper cost of ownership, even at a $40,000 price tag, then most other comparable cars. (very limited oil changes, electric drive is much simpler and more reliable than gas engines, look at how long golf cars last without much repairs, electric energy is much cheaper than gas and also can be generated off the grid (solar))
4.) The latest green technology is the latest trend especially since 9 out of 10 women perfer the latest green tech over old powerful muscle cars.
5.) GM has more knowlege on electric drive then most other companies. Once they get a good battery and mass produce the battery its a mater of time before all their vechiles will have it.
June 10th, 2008 at 11:02 am
#72 Dave G
2) COMPETITION. Right now, I haven’t seen anything like the Volt on the horizon
Did I miss anything?
Mitsu i-Miev. It’s real, it’s in production. It’s got a 16kW Li-Ion pack, its 20K cheaper:
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/mitsubishi-imiev-ev-exclusive-test-drive/2410200989
Will be produced in two ranges 70-75ish milesand 100ish miles.
You can disqualify it if you like because it doesn’t have a back-up ICE, and theretically people might not buy it because it tops out at 100 miles… but under your reasoning of discounting the Prius because it will only go 10 miles, the Volt will go 40 without using gas. The same argument could be used about the i-Miev vs the Volt.
June 10th, 2008 at 11:02 am
#77, statik,
I will go on record for all of them. You will see that the vehicle will develop rapidly, now that they have mules rolling. Once you have an end to end functioning system, the remaining work becomes “visible” to everyone, so they just work the hell out of their punch lists.
Now that GM green-light-ed the production, the Hamtramck plant can prepare for the Volt’s arrival, as prototype after prototype is made available to the plant for production purposes.
In your post, you forget that new vehicles take 5 years, while iterations take 3, so GM is well ahead, and will stay ahead. They just need to get from mules to the final intended configurations in dozens or hundreds, which will take months, but will remove any lingering doubts about moving forward.
June 10th, 2008 at 11:32 am
nasaman #42
May I add to your list? I remember in the second World War where the Jap Zero dominated the skies and shot down our aircraft at will.
We desperately needed something or we were going to lose the war.
Our aircraft engineers designed and built the Hellcat that was much faster, could out maneuver and out shoot the Zero. This was done in a very short time frame and we about annihilated the Japanese air force and most of their navel vessels. This is America and if we can put our all into a project there is no telling what we can achieve.
Go GM - GO VOLT
God Bless America.
Tom
June 10th, 2008 at 11:37 am
#81 Jason M. Hendler
This may not come through in my posts, but I like you.
“Anyways, I was wondering if you would like to join me in my quarters this night for some toast.”
http://www.moviewavs.com/php/sounds/?id=bst&media=WAVS&type=Movies&movie=Nacho_Libre"e=forsometoast.txt&file=forsometoast.wav
No, no, not like that. But I can respect someone who is willing to stick there neck out. It’s easy to never committ yourself, and just shoot people down without first putting yourself out there. You put yourself out there quite a bit, which is a amiable quality.
I still think your totally wrong though, hehe.
June 10th, 2008 at 11:49 am
The only thing to make this better would if we would increase drilling for our own oil, build more refiners, so to bridge the gap for when/if hydrogen engines replace the gasoline/ethanol/diesel engine.
June 10th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Nasaman @ 42,
Maybe we’re arguing semantics, maybe not. But when I think of Appollo programs and Manhattan projects, I think of a major problem facing society, which must be dealt with in an extremely constrained time frame. Notice that government funded both of these projects as well.
I agree we have a sense of urgency. But let’s face it, there are plenty of EVs out here that can go well in excess of 40 miles that would reduce our dependency on foreign oil (and all the green benefits). Government is not spearheading this project–and hardly supporting it. I wish GM was getting assistance by way of funding (tax credits and the like), because it would ensure success.
Now if we had an imminent threat (ie suddenly today there is no gas available for consumption), then we’d see an Appollo project. But I appreciate the baby steps this car will make towards BEVs. And I don’t mean to push your buttons; wouldn’t want to launch any ICBMs.
June 10th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
If GM doesn’t make the Volt…someone else will! I get the impression from the author that he believes that GM is the only company producing a PHEV…but several major automakers and small automakers have these in the works. Why not rip on Volvo for researching and developing the Re-Charge concept?
June 10th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
If reading that article didn’t inspire and leave huge goose bumps please place a mirror in front of your mouth…exhale and look for fog….as you just may be dead.
I can’t tell you how many times I have e mailed GM and yes, left my cell phone number over the years to encourage them to produce certain products. Build amazing concept cars I have seen at the Manhattan auto shows….to get them out of the corporate bog.
Lyle please feel free to give them my e mail if they want more ideas.
I love America. I once loved GM vehicles. Now with the new Cadillacs and such I again do. But it’s been years. Finally they are back.
It’s Not A Mistake!
June 10th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I like the analogy of the Volt being to GM what the iPhone is to Apple. And, as announced at WWDV, the iPhone is not just a phone/music player anymore - it’s a platform.
OPEC has us by the b*lls. And they always will, until we can significantly reduce our dependence on foreign oil. I want a Volt just for that reason alone. Those middle-east oil barons are grotesquely rich now - building 400 foot palace-yachts, incredible man-made island tourist attractions, huge over-the-top mansions, skyscrapers and hotels, etc…meanwhile, the middle-class American taxpayer takes it in the you-know-what everyday….
Energy independence, alternative energy - it’s the next “big thing.” I want to be a part of it…
And hopefully, as battery technology improves, etc - we’ll be able to start doing electric-power conversions to our other vehicles (ie: boats, motorcycles, lawn mowers, etc)
June 10th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
The mistake GM is making right now with the Volt involves marketing. They are getting great PR. But right this moment they have a lot of people willing to make an actual commitment, meaning pay real money as a deposit, yet GM has not found a way to take that money — instead they are going to let these customers wander around, look at Mitusubishis, look at Toyotas, look at Fords — maybe decide to buy a Volt someday, when GM is ready. GM is too wrapped up in the their old way of selling cars. They need to rethink how they sell and do it right now for the Volt, They can leverage the old plan but find a way to start selling Volts now (with whatever conditions and limitations are necessary). Why not?
June 10th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Wagoner: “We have no busines case, but lets get this thing into production and worry about the cost, investment and profitability later”
Lutz: “it may be years before we make a dime on this product. Years! And the (GM) Board said: don’t even talk about profitability”
These two quotes sum up why GM has been failing for decades and is now in very serious financial trouble. As an earlier poster said it well: “GM has Prius envy”.
The huge and critical difference between Toyota spending big bucks on the original Prius, and absorbing losses on it for years, is that they COULD AFFORD TO! But GM can’t afford to “not make a dime on this product for years”. At GM’s current cash burn, there is serious question as to whether GM will stil be viable in 2010.
But you can bet that Nissan, Subaru, Toyota, and the other companies announcing EV products will be.
I repeat: Prius Envy. If the Volt “works”, GM will be so proud of its litlle loss-leader. Maybe. Maybe Not.
June 10th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
#76 Rob
My dealer told me to hold on a while. He felt that they wouldn’t do anything list wise until they knew when it was close to a ship date. But I just wrote the dealership owner and we’ll see what they say, if they do at all. If they don’t respond, there are other dealerships around that may want my business. If business is so good that they don’t want to lock me in (and business is bad) then to heck with them! NEXT!
June 10th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
I did have my doubts about the article when at least twice it calls the EV1 a commerical flop, when it was never a commercial product, GM never advertised it, never offered them for sale, denied for years the wait list was longer than the supply, even though they put many hoops in the way for anyone to even get on the wait list to lease one. Not to mention by some accounts GM spent more trying to killed California’s ZEV mandate than they did on the EV1 itself.
I am glad the article mentions that GM actually had a working prototype of a range extended EV1 (though it didn’t mention it was also stretched to be a 4 seater compared to the battery only EV1). It also doesn’t mention that that 60 miles was the battery range with the original lead acid batteries, and that it was closer to 100 with the Cobasys NiMH’s.
I get a kick out of the authors implication that it was GM’s annoucement of the Volt in Jan. 2007 that kicked off the competition. As readers of evworld.com know GM was not the 1st major auto maker with annoucements… GM however was the most ambitious of them however so credit is due there. And GM definitely had an influence on Toyota’s current plans.
And Lyle, no offense to your ego… but did you expect to be cited for putting on the New York Auto Show?
In the context of this article I would have actually been surprised if this website (blog) was mentioned as it would have seemed out of place. It does seem odd though an article with a byline of July/August 2008 ended with progress only up to NY Auto Show… I’m guessing “The Atlantic” is a print publication and must have deadlines months in advance? Print media is just so yesterday!
June 10th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Was Jonathan Rauch paid by the big oil companies to write the article?
June 10th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Interesting article, but entirely wrong and here are a few of the reasons why:
1) GM needs showroom interest more than they need a hot selling car. If GM can get folks into the showroom, they will likely sell them something. If they can’t , then they wont. It doesn’t matter from an economic standpoint to GM if the Volt itself sells well, as long as it brings people into the showroom. A lot of folks will come in to look at the Volt and many will decide that they can’t swing the price (wont matter anyway because there wont be any to buy,) but look at this nifty new Malibu with a six speed automatic and a 4 cylinder engine that gets over 30 on the highway – it’s a nice car and quite a bargain to boot.
2) The Volt will likely sell every unit made as the pent-up demand is so high. People will not bat an eye at $35k if the car is decent.
3) Development of the Volt is at around $1 billion so far and it will likely go beyond $2 billion. GM has annual sales that exceed $350 billion. So to put this in context of the average American Family earning $75,000 per year, it would be the equivalent of spending $214 spread out over a years time, or $4.18 per week. That’s what this is costing GM in terms that an average American can understand — $4.18 per week. It’s about 1 Starbucks coffee per week for GM.
4) The PR value and the free advertising has already topped the value of $1 Billion, therefore, the Volt was free for GM to develop.
5) Not developing the technology would certainly place GM in a poor position as oil prices continue to rise and fuel economy becomes an important selling point. Volt systems, and sub-systems will be used to refine and improve the fleet at GM. It will get cheaper as it goes through the production utility maximization process at GM.
June 10th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
#85 Dave B:
.
I’m not aware of plenty of EV’s that can even go on the freeway. My options for electric drive seem to be to buy either a Tesla or a used RAV-4EV. Either of which are pretty cool, but pretty expensive and are limited in their use models (I live in Silicon Valley and it would be near impossible to drive my family to LA to visit their grandparents, for example- In fact impossible in the Tesla unless it becomes legal to duct tape the kids to the car
The point being is that what is planned for the Volt really IS something different from what is available. It actually could bring electric vehicles to the general public, something that certainly hasn’t happened with what is available, now.
Statik:
I agree that GM is in terrible shape. A government bailout may turn out to be necessary for them at some point. And the Volt itself actually makes a very strong case for a government bailout, seeing as how it would definitely improve security and the economy to reduce dependence on oil.
But before it comes to that, maybe GM can convince the government that moving government tax subsidies from Hummers to Volts would make even more sense and then they really could sell a lot of Volts at affordable prices and not need a bigger bailout later.
SO, that brings me to the original question. Is the Volt a huge mistake? Not for me, it isn’t.
Not for America, it isn’t. Not for the world, it isn’t. For GM? Mmmmmaybe it will turn out to be a mistake but not a huge one… It’s not like they actually have other viable options. Or to put it another way, it’s unlikely to be a bigger mistake than sitting on their hands and doing business as ususal. That hasn’t worked out so well, so far.
With a little luck on the business/government/consumer side, they might even have a huge success! I sure hope so!
June 10th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Jonathan Rauch quotes a competitors anonymous executive as claiming GM is “making a huge mistake”.
Does this so-called ‘anonymous executive’ have any experience with serial plug-in hybrids?
Or, perhaps, this so-called ‘anonymous executive’ is basing his opinion on Toyota with its ‘huge mistake’ we now know as the prius (sarcasm).
How can a car thats not even built yet be a mistake?
Chances are, this so-called ‘anonymous executive’ works for either Ford, Chrysler, or the oil companies
June 10th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Dave B, #85
One big difference is that neither the Manhattan Project or the space program directly produced any consumer or commercial products. You can’t go out and buy a nuke or spaceship. They were done for military purposes.
I agree that as Americans we can come up with a solution but the government isn’t going to get involved at any significant level. It will be left to the corporations and they are unfortunately driven by short term shareholder demands.
GM is truly going out on a limb with the Volt and I will give credit where credit is due.
On the flip side, the consumer needs to start driving change before it gets this painful (a nearly impossible task). We need to get more citizens to be scientifically savvy so they can filter through the BS and start making better decisions. This train could be seen from 10 years away but people didn’t understand the significance. We can’t expect the government to do anything here. We have to do it.
June 10th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
I think the “Anonymous Executive” is a Prius in disguise.
June 10th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
74 Tim
Good ‘do it right’ list. The one I worry about is dealer gouging, especially when they try to make up their commission shortfalls from the other models which are are not moving on the back of Volt sales. I just hope GM puts a franchise hard cap on the allowable MSRP+ lot drive off price, or else they won’t get the market penetration they need at the outset.
June 10th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
I read the article twice and came away kinda depressed. I think back to the ebulient engineering team we saw and spoke to, but **according to the article** they were actually tired and riddled with self-doubt.
Obviously, time will tell how this plays out.
T
June 10th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
RE: 15
Just had an idea from your comment. GM should put Steve Jobs on the GM Board of Directors. He certainly could help make the case for the GM Volt to the public as he has done for the iPhone and IPod. I would think he would want to promote a Green car.
June 10th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
They should change the policy on this vehicle to “No Haggle, No Hassell” as they do with Saturn, where OEM sets a price and retailers have to sell it at that rate. It’s good that it’s being released as a Chevrolet because Chevrolet is their most popular brand, but a release of a vehicle like this deserves more of a Saturn touch to it in terms of purchasing experience and customer service after the fact.
June 10th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Lyle,
That is hands down, by far the BEST article written on the Volt to date. The author, Jonathan Roach, did his homework. It is a sometimes pessimistic but is a completely fair assessment of the Chevy Volt program. Most impressive is the accuracy of just about everything in the article. We all know what a poor job the mainstream media has done describing this car. Mr. Rauch got all the technical aspects right and delivered it in a way that anyone could understand. Well done Atlantic Monthly!
June 10th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
I think the article is dead on, GM is taking a huge risk but they know where that risk lies - the battery. It’s not like they are making a consumer spacecraft where everything is a challenge. If they can get the battery they need, they will succeed.
And even if they don’t, think about the R&D and prototype testing that will be done and only waiting for that battery. While GM might need to downsize if they have to delay for the the battery, they won’t go under and will only be waiting for the battery to be ready for prime time. If they don’t do this work, they will be even further behind.
The EV1 taught them a lot but not everything, They are learning the other stuff with this Volt development and if it pushes for the battery, they are still ahead.
June 10th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
#82 Statik: Mitsu i-Miev. It’s real, it’s in production. It’s got a 16kW Li-Ion pack, its 20K cheaper
Not in production, just in a few test fleets (like Toyota Prius and Ford Escape PHEVs). Last official announcement I read was i-Miev production in 2010, but this article:
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/11/14/mitsubishis-all-electric-i-miev-may-arrive-earlier-than-expecte/
says MItsubishi may sell up to 1000 in Japan next year for $25k. This car has 60-70 mile range in US driving conditions and battery data indicates it will not be able to climb long freeway grades. It looks like a perfectly good city car but not directly competitive with Volt. More like a souped-up NEV.
#74 Dave G - I would add BYD FD6M to your list. This will only be available in China at first but could hit US markets by 2011-12. BYD is small potatoes in the auto industry but they’re a large battery maker, very entrepreneurial and quite committed to EV/PHEVs. Details on their design are hard to come by, but it looks more cost-effective than either E-Flex or HSD. If Chrysler decides to get in the game I’d expect them to partner with someone like BYD.
June 10th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
If you really want a BEV that will cruise at highway speeds, you are generally limited to conversions. Check http://www.evalbum.com for what can be done. There are now a bunch of vendors who are doing conversions.
Anyone whose motivation for buying a conversion or an early Volt is to save $ will be sorely disappointed. When late model SUVs get down to $1000 they will be pretty hard to beat financially. $34,000 savings will buy a lot of $6/gallon gas.
Why GM didn’t get into the business quickly by doing their own conversion escapes me. They could have done the equivalent of the RAV4 and gotten a lot of experience and made a few bucks without the “Bet the Company” theatrics.
Building an electric vehicle isn’t brain surgery.
June 10th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
The ev1 was never a success. The only reason people wanted them so badly was because they didn’t have to pay for them. GM was footing the bill for them mostly.
The truth is Toyota came out with the prius a decade ago and did nothing to improve it. In the future there will be books written on how toyota blew there lead by sitting on their hands allowing GM to take the lead. Compounded their short sightedness by continiously betting against Li-ion batteries long after they were proven viable.
So lets not talk about who killed the electric car but instead how toyota blew their chance.
June 10th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
This is GM’s Apollo Project. It’s going to cost them dearly to bring it to fruition, but experience for the inevitable electric revolution and the ability to clone the platform into different bodies (I can see a minivan and later, a sports car based on the same platform doing quite well). Not to mention spinoff technologies (charge controllers, ruggedized electric motor design, and thermal controls spring to mind). Even if they don’t make a dime on the car, ever, they will have a platform and the experience required for the next generation of battery powered cars.
June 10th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Well, this post sure has brought out the pros and cons of the Volt process. Of course this is not a mistake. It is parallel to the moon program. Those naysayers among you must ask yourselves just why you are so negative on the Volt program or its completion. Is it just frustration you feel over past wrongs GM has committed? All auto companies can be accused of doing “wrong” headed things. They make decision that are not always the correct ones. The good thing about GM is that they now see the error of their ways and are on the path to correct some of them.
The Volt is not going to wash away all of GM’s mistakes. I don’t expect everyone to jump up and be a 100% supporter of GM after the Volt is in mass production and has been proven a success.
Let me tell you one thing that I want you all to remember, if you don’t remember anything else I say. The Volt is ALREADY A SUCCESS. If it were not all the other manufacturers who are now saying they intend to build a BEV or PHEV or a new evolutionary auto would not be saying so. They are all recognizing the future success of the Volt and are trying to get in line to get some of the action. To me that makes the Volt a success.
June 10th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
I did find the article interesting. I thought it was well presented and was based on facts as the author understood them at the time. I do not think the author was picking on GM or the Volt program. He did not bring up any issues we have not seen posted on this forum by a multitude of people. We should understand that there may be delays with the Volt program, but we should also give GM encouragement to continue working through any delays or technical problems and finish the Volt. It is in both GM’s and our interest to be completed successfully.
June 10th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
111, 112 N Riley……
In Noel Park’s behalf, I’ll say AMEN! (Ohhhh, and PASS THE AMMUNITION aka Li-Ion Cells!)
June 10th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Dave P @ 97: Highway capable EVs that are supposedly as far, if not further than the Volt:
1. Tesla Roadster
2. Phoenix SUV / SUT
3. Mitsu MiEV
4. Miles Javlon
5. Suburu vehiciles
6. Th!nk
7. Conversions (Hybrid Technologies, Ebox, Hymotion)
8. Toyota RAV
There are others, I’m just drawing a blank.
June 10th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
A HUGH MISTAKE?! Doesn’t anybody here actually believe this?!
Gas just hit $1.42 a litre in town (~$5.37 US gallon) this weekend with projections to go over $1.50 this summer and up to $2.00 (~$7.57 US gallon) by 2010. That translates to ~$86.00 a week to fill up now ($4467.84 a year), but wait…… by 2010 I’ll have the privilege to fill up for ~$121.00 a week for a yearly total of $6298.00.
Yup, that’s right…..over $6000.00 a year to go to and from work and pickup groceries with the occasion visit to the relatives and such, for a four door sedan with 20/30 mpg performance.
Even if GM has to sell the VOLT at $40,000.00 I’ll still be buying it since with the money I won’t be paying to the gas companies/OPEC I’ll gladly pay off the VOLT keeping my money in North America. Besides, I’ll be riding gas free while being recharged off my $5K solar panel investment.
If GM does read these posts each day or so, GM, Bob, Rick, Andrew, everyone involved with the VOLT, please build this car no matter what the naysayers keep saying! The initial 10,000 cars will be GONE before they have a chance to leave a shadow at a dealership. Hopefully GM will keep in mind all the people on your waiting list Lyle, who wanted a VOLT way back in 2007 (Deposit ready, just let me know). Then GM can sell the next batch of 100,000 VOLTs to people who will be SCREAMING to get off gas/oil in 2 years.
I have never owned a GM vehicle, simply raised as a FORD guy, but I’ve been totally committed to buying the VOLT as soon as I saw the photos from the 2007 car show. When people look back at this “moon program” as some have called it, they will realize that, yes, it was a risk, but one that had to happen and that GM was the first one to say “We’re going to do it!”
GM, we need the VOLT as soon as possible, and as usual a BIG thanks to you Lyle for keeping up the GREAT work. I ordered a LG T-shirt and will wear it often spreading the word!!!
June 10th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
#30 KentT:
I agree with your comments about the weakness of the dollar. A very good analysis, IMHO.
#39 pdt:
I think that there are enough “people with non-economic reasons for buying” to account for all of the available Volt production for several years. Even at $4/gal it is tough to justify dumping a good paid for car and spending $30k+ to save gas on strictly economic grounds. But here are PLENTY of emotional, or even patriotic, reasons to do so.
#42 nasaman:
If we hadn’t gotten to the moon first we quite likely would have had to learn to read, write, and speak Russian. If the Volt does not succeed, we may need to learn to read, write, and speak Chinese, Arabic, and/or Farsi.
#49 john1701a:
You ask an excellent question, the answer to which clearly holds the key to GM’s survival.
To Mr. Rauch I would say, as many have already said both here and in the past months, that the biggest risk GM could take would be NOT to do the Volt. Clearly, the status quo leads only, as Statik has said so many times, to Chapter 11. Unless GM can regain the technical high ground, and build product products so good and advanced that the world clamors for them, I fear that it will disappear.
If we continue our present policies of endless growth of debt and overwhelming balance of payments defecits, we are destined as a nation for 2nd world economic status, if we’re lucky. In a way, GM is a microcosm of the entire US economy. Developing world leading products, which are in demand at home and around the world because of their technical excellence, is one way to help to alleviate this disaster. If they help us to free ourselves from imported (actually all) oil, so much the better.
So, the Volt cannot be a mistake. It is a risk which must be taken, because the alternatives are too horrible to be contemplated. The challenge which we have repeatedly thrown at GM is as strong as ever, “Innovate or die!” Do so and we will support you with our hard earned dollars.
Finally, I take one day off and I’ll never catch up. You guys are the salt of the Earth. Blog on.
June 10th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
GM will either win big or lose a little with the Volt. All they have to do is get a battery to play nice with range, durability and life-span. If GM drops the Volt they will definitely lose big.
June 10th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
I just did some quick calculations to see how fast a Volt battery would pay for itself at $10,000 with $4 a gallon gasoline (obviously that number can swing either way and has a big impact on this formula):
$4 / 20 = .2 Therefore, 20 cents per mile is paid for a vehicle at 20 mpg paying $4 a gallon (I picked 20 as a fairly average mpg vehicle for the US - totally arbitrary).
.2 X 50,000 = $10,000 Therefore, not taking into account any additional cost of electricty for the vehicle would require 50,000 miles of electric engine use only (not to mention when the gas engine kicked in, you’re still saving money as compared to a 20 mpg car when your car is getting 50 mpg).
Not to mention you are helping the environment, helping the US use less oil, and supporting a US automaker.
June 10th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
GM’s largest concern is that some sandbagger will outVolt them. Mistakes have already been made. The Volt is a mistake eraser.
Harping on a point, I’ll say again; America shoulda been building nukes and doing electric cars since the first OPEC war against us in the 1970s. Thankfully, it looks like GM is really gonna push this thing anf their EV experience gives them a boost.
Don’t think Toyyoda , Hounda and Nissan are not working like dervishes. The race to the future is on now.
Good lithium ion batteries also make solar cells and home power plants truly feas