Archive for May, 2008

 

May 26

The Chevy Volt and Securing America’s Future

 

First on this Memorial Day my heartfelt thanks and appreciation to our troops on the battlefield, and my wishes for their safe return, and thanks too to all those veterans who have gone before them, and let us remember those who have lost their lives for our freedom.

When the Volt was first introduced in January 2007, oil was roughly $60 per barrel. Now it has touched $135. Timely as the Volt concept was then, GM couldn’t have predicted how important this car rapidly would become.

U.S. gas prices are now around the $4.00 mark or greater. Analysts point out that although oil prices have increased 33% since the beginning of the year, gas prices have only increased 22%. Refineries have been absorbing some of the cost increase, but this may not be able to continue. The oil price bubble may grow further, and Goldman Sachs predicts it could hit $200 barrel within the next 6 months to 2 years. This could translate into a $6-$7 per gallon gas.

Source (MarketWatch )

In a New York Times editorial, Ben Stein paints a very bleak picture. Conjuring up images of 6000 pound SUVs being used to chauffeur 100 pound teenagers, and the apocalyptic chaos of Mad Max movies, he writes “the prognosis for gasoline is grim in the long run.”

He points out that 2/3 of U.S. gas is imported and mostly from countries whose governments and people don’t like us, and asks what will happen, for example, if Venezuela decided to stop sending us oil.

Further, the threat of peak oil and the likelihood we are already there is put forth. Equally dismal is how woefully ill-prepared he feels the country will be to handle rapidly diminishing supplies.

He tells us we have become deeply and inextricably dependent on oil, and that if nothing is done about it, the future is terrifying.

His solution. Turn coal into oil, build nuclear plants, drill everywhere and “brush aside the concerns of the beautiful people who live on coastal pastures.”

I agree the situation is an emergency and drastic measures are needed, but Mr.Stein forgot to mention one obvious thing. Build and drive electric vehicles. And then very well, not only might the Volt save GM, but it may go along way to help save this country.

Source (New York Times )

 

May 25

Do We Believe the Volt’s Batteries Can’t Deliver on its Promise?

 

An article was recently published in the Sacramento Bee discussing plug-in hybrids. The story emphasized the development of the AFS Trinity which is a plug-in Saturn VUE conversion using lithium-ion batteries and ultracaps which has a 40 mile EV range and range extender.

In a provocative assertion, the author references a UC Davis study noting:
“The 300-pound battery pack General Motors is building into its Chevrolet Volt plug-in, for instance, can’t yet deliver its promised 40-mile range and the long-term durability needed for a mass-market car, according to a report by a hybrid technology research team at the University of California, Davis.”

The article’s author, Jim Downing, was kind enough to give me the reference to which he refers. You can read its 29 pages of technical detail here.

The thrust of the report is to explain the current state of hybrid car batteries, looking at li-ion and NiMh and comparing each, including the various cathode subtypes. They are measured against the required standards set for by among other authorities, the USABC, a government group including representatives from the major US auto makers.

The USABC battery requirements are set forth for a mass-produced PHEV-40 or Volt:

1. Power density of 380 W/kg
2. Energy density 140 Wh/kg (EPRI gives 60 Wh/kg, MIT 100)
3. Energy capacity 17 kwh
4. OEM cost $200/kwh
5. Deep Discharge Cycle 5000

Let’s look at some speculative values our friend Alex S. (AES) has determined for the Volt’s competitive battery-makers.

A123:
Energy density = 108 Wh/kg
Power density = >3000 W/kg

LG Chem:
energy density = 95 Wh/kg
power density = 2000 W/kg

Of course these values for LG and A123 cells are speculative and we do know that new formulations from each supplier have been developed for the Volt project. Furthermore, the cost these companies plan to charge GM for the batteries remains unknown. Most experts quote this presently at $800 – $1000 per kwh. So the price of the Volt then seems to depend in great part on how much GM will have to pay for its battery.

Should GM subsidize the battery-makers or should the battery-makers subsidize GM?

In the end it is fair to say that based on what we know publicly GMs suppliers lithium batteries do nearly meet or exceed meet the USABCs performance criteria, and exceed EPRIs requirements.

Of course all that really matters is that the batteries meet GMs own internal criteria, and the fact is, we already know the first running Volt prototype has met its 40 mile mark.

Source (Sacremento Bee)

 

May 24

No Mad Rush Yet to Buy GM’s Large Hybrid SUVs

 

In following GMs development of the Volt, one cant help but notice the automaker has been developing other higher-fuel economy vehicles.

One effort thats hard to miss is the production of 2-mode hybrid versions of the large SUV Chevy Tahoes and GMC Yukons. These massive trucks have remarkably advanced 2-mode hybrid systems that allow electric-only propulsion at both slow and high velocities. For engineering details, read my test drive here. These are the largest production hybrid vehicles available anywhere.

The SUVs were first introduced in late 2007, and get a 50% mpg improvement over the standard models achieving 21/22 city/hwy mpg, extremely impressive for trucks of this size. There is no plug, or lithium-ion battery, and the price tops $50,000.

GM’s initial analysis was for U.S. sales of 10,000 – 15,000 combined units annually.

The first trucks trickled out in February, and March was the first full month of sales. So far they have sold a combined 1000 units in March and April. This is compared to 13,000 combined sales of standard Tahoes and Yukons in April alone.

So with gas and oil prices rising as they are is it too little too late to save trucks, do people still not know about them yet, or is it just a matter of availability?

Only time will tell.

Source (MSNBC)

 

May 23

Full-Scale Fiberglass Production Chevy Volt Model Has Been Completed

 

We have been discussing the concept car, design changes coming to the production version, and the developmental prototpye schedule.

Some issues might need clarification, especially for people new to the site.

First, the concept car we are use to seeing is just a fiberglass shell. The production design will look somewhat different and thus far we’ve only seen the front end corner view. The rest is yet to be revealed.

This first running lithium ion prototype has the main rough internal Volt components but is housed in a 2005 Malibu shell.

The next phase of running mules coming later this year will have some cars that look like the production car.

According to Bob Boniface, GM has just recently completed the fiberglass production car model that looks exactly like the final car. This is likely what we will be shown on that momentous day when GM decides to unveil the car.

Here’s what Bob Boniface told me:

“We’ve already built a fiberglass research property thats got a transparent upper, you can see through it. This property looks like a real car. It has functioning lights, you can see through it to the seats. We just finished it.”

“We will send it to clinic and get public feedback. We always clinic every property, its called ‘theme confirmation’. We have to assemble the data early enough from these confirmation clinics in order to respond to it.”

“We send out mailers to certain demographics. They’ll send out 800 mailers and maybe get back 15 people. People show up to a secure site and they see the car and answer questions for feedback. This is nothing new for this car, we do that with every car. It hasn’t happened yet, but thats what this model is for.”

“We showed it to Rick Wagoner and he though it was pretty cool. Its the same color as the show car.”

[The picture above is NOT of the model, it is a camouflageed 1/3 scale model GM showed reporters being testing the in the tech center wind tunnel back in April.]

 

May 22

GM CEO: Chevy Volt Out Earlier by 2010 and for Less Than $30,000?

 

We have a teaser of an interview that GM CEO Rick Wagoner gave to the German Publication Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung which will be published tomorrow.

He is reportedly quoted as saying two very big things.

1. GM wants to put the Volt out by 2010 as opposed to the end of 2010.
2. They want to sell them for less than $30,000.

Wagoner is quoted as saying, “Our two challenges are lowering the cost of batteries and convincing consumers of the advantages of the Volt.”

I haven’t gotten access to the full interview yet, but I confirmed these statements directly with the author of the referenced press release. She told me the interview publisher’s quote is “GM has a clear goal: We want to put the Volt on the market in 2010, at a price of less than $30,000.”

[UPDATE: The full interview is out and doesnt really say any more than what we have above. It seems translation is still a factor here. Im looking for verification from inside GM. Translation by Google]

Source (Interactive Investor)

 

May 22

GM to be Exclusive Auto Sponsor For Environmental TV Channel

 

Discovery Channel’s “Planet Green” is a 24-hour eco-lifestyle channel that is set to launch on June 4th. In their own word’s it aims to be “your user’s guide to living mindfully on this big blue marble we all call home.” Discovery plans it to be a television network with a “robust” online presence.

It turns out that GM will be the exclusive automotive sponsor for this venture.

As a result, the General will get to air a series of eight two-minute documentary style ads featuring their executives. At least one of these will feature our friend, the Volt’s vehicle line engineer Frank Weber.

The network will reach 50 million U.S. homes.

Now that sounds like it would be a good venue to unveil the production Chevy Volt to the world.

Source (MediaPost)