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Could Recession Crash the Volt?

May 13th, 2008 | Posted in: Financial, Latest News

We wait patiently as GM puts the Volt through the most rapid development cycle any of its vehicles has ever had. Meanwhile, since the original concept was introduced in Jan 2007, the economy has been in trouble. The burdens of the credit crisis and the rapidly rising oil prices have significantly affected the auto industry.

Whereas he’s not sure the economy is in recession, GM President Fritz Henderson has now indicated he believes that the auto industry is. Truck sales, generally quite lucrative for GM have plummeted at the same time smaller money-making small car sales have increased. Overall car sales have sunk further than anyone had predicted. Recent strikes have led GM to $800 million in lost revenue.

Today GM told reporters they would have to resort to borrowing and reduced spending if the recession worsens.

They told reporters that they have $24 billion in cash and $7 billion in undrawn loans, after three straight annual significant losses in a row. In the last quarter alone they lost $3.25 billion. They claim though this cash is an adequate cushion to get them through 2008. But what happens after that?

Of course in 2007, GM sold 9.69 million cars, and sold 2.25 million the first 3 months of this year. That is after all a lot of cars. Furthermore, although the U.S. sales figures are weak, double digit increases are occurring in China, and GM’s gains there are significant.

Its still 2 and 1/2 years until the Volt is slated to arrive. Will GM save the Volt, will the Volt save GM, or is this much ado about nothing, and just the usual gyrations of the economy?

I go with the last option.

Source (Bloomberg) and (CNN Money)

Posted by: Lyle

132 Responses to “Could Recession Crash the Volt?”

Matt Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 8:57 pm

The Volt is the very car that would be selling right now. I hope it is not canceled. If it runs out of money, they should spin it off to insulate it and attract VC.

The Volt should not be made to pay for the circumstances created by the rest of the industry over the last several decades.
Johnnie Paul Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 8:59 pm

It’s tough everywhere…I hope GM can smart it out, and the Volt is a good smart start…

Johnnie
OhmExcited Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:06 pm

Recesssions can hurt business, so keep making the $50,000 Escalades and Tahoes. Right. There’s your backup plan, guys.
Mark Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:09 pm

Part of the reason for this recession is the increase price of oil. IF EV’s were being sold earlier, if the Volt had come out earlier, then a recession could have been avoided, or at least, the recession could have been less severe.
Digger Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:13 pm

GM will have to get the Volt at a price that the average American can afford. When they do that then I believe it will be the car that will begin to make our dependence on overseas oil a thing of the past.
We as Americans MUST for our security and for our childrens future
make this nation energy independent. Buying a VOLT must be marketed as an American thing to do. I will buy one whether gas is 1.50 a gallon or 6.00 a gallon because it is the right thing to do!!!
I for one will tell the mid-east to keep their blackgold!!
Grizzly Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:13 pm

Everyone is feeling this crunch. GM especially because of the 3-4 year rotation on their line, which is bottoming out on the huge SUV push of 4-5 years ago.

Regardless of what happens in the future, a vehicle like the Volt will succeed regardless of Opec’s games. The time is now and never again will we see what we have for the past 6-8. Never again will there be a comfort zone that will allow for massive sales of behemoth SUVs.
Arch Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:20 pm

Life is tough these days. It will take smart people to keep ANY company alive these days. Life here in the US has been to easy for to long. The oil that has done all of our work for way to long is now running out. People are going to have to get smart or get a strong back. The flipside of that is that we quit listening to the folks that say that we should not be drilling for oil in places where we know there is plenty. If they want their view of the ocean then turn off their oil. I know that sounds bad but we are getting down to that. OK so I am a mean old man. One of the things I have learned is that you have to pay for what you want. OK you can all hit on me now.

Take Care
Arch
bruce g Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:28 pm

I have seen it argued that this recession may not be very deep but it may be very long.
This was considered to be the result of various governments interventions to shore up their financial systems.
It is perceived to be similar to Japanese actions a couple of decades ago over corporate hidden bad debts.The Japanese recovery was very slow.

In that situation I dont think it is an option for GM to take short term steps hoping for a return to cheap fuel and a buoyant economy.
I would cut all development except for fuel efficient vehicles and they actually have the technology to build them.

Good luck!
andy Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:29 pm

I don’t think we have anything to worry about; if the Volt dies, some silicon valley group of 22 year olds will come along and do the same thing on 1/1000th of the Volt budget. I am proud that GM is working on the Volt so dilligently, as they have me considering buying a domestic car for the first time in almost 20 years, but it is amazing how much money they blow through in the process. They could probably take a few lessons from silicon valley when it comes to developing and scaling new technologies, because their cash would last a lot longer if their budget was more in line with Tesla’s or Fisker Automotive, both of which have produces some pretty remarkable vehicles from scratch for tens of millions of dollars, not hundreds of millions….
koz Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:42 pm

I don’t see much cause for concern about the economic climate “crashing the Volt” via GM killing the project. My concerns are more about GM’s ability to ride out a lengthy downtown. They can go a lot further than their $24B in cash can take them and that is without even considering a government bailout, which is a likely scenario if things get bad enough.
Jeff Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:45 pm

Oil…it is common to all world wide industry.

For the few businesses that may be considered to not have a direct dependence, they are indirectly affected, The energy source of transportation needs to be more diversified.

As for the question…I’ll answer with couple more questions. What if the SUVs fuel efficiency could be doubled? GM would be in “high cotton” again…but for how long? China and India is growing fast.
Theoldguy Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:52 pm

Hello Toyota… What to buy a car company.? Cheap ?.. Just wait another year and you can pick up GM for a song… put out the Volt for $ 22 K and make the millions that GM is willing to squander on the big SUVs and over priced trucks.

If the Volt is shelved in leu of more wasteful SUVs , trucks and luxury cars..then GM deserves to go down in bankrupcy…

Get the Volt.. Opel and an S10 electric Hybrid out in 2009… don’t drag things out… and you will not have to worry about bankrupcy.

JUST DO IT….

I want my Volt but if ya can’t do it… Hello Toyota, Honda, Nissian.. what you got for me
karl Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:54 pm

offer the car without the gas engine.
Vincent Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 9:55 pm

The Government will not let GM go down.
Andy #8….Exactly.
Vincent Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 10:00 pm

It wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Government to help GM with the development costs either.
AES Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 10:01 pm

I think in the grand, historical scheme of things, it would be stupid for a recession to crush technological progress. I know every billion dollars counts, but if the eventual (key word) return for GM (and the American auto industry as a whole) on the Volt is greater than a billion dollars, it will have been totally worth it.

I will make a comparison to Apple Computer, another spunky American company that when the last “recession” hit, they actually increased R&D so that they could emerge from the recession stronger than everyone else.
NZDavid Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 10:10 pm

If the Volt goes, GM dies!

I don’t think the strike was that costly, as all the extra cars/trucks produced would now be a ‘non-selling’ asset.

Like in the 70’s focus on the small end. The only difference is, this time it ain’t going to end.

Cheers
David Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 10:14 pm

Simple Solution: Take Pre-Orders / Reservations for the Volt

Example: http://www.teslamotors.com/buy/resyourcar.php
Grizzly Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 10:19 pm

“Like in the 70’s focus on the small end. The only difference is, this time it ain’t going to end.”

You got that right. Never get off the boat. This one needs to bail some water, but the focus is now squarely on efficiency. Anyone who misses that boat won’t have to worry about getting off.
AndyChuck Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 10:22 pm

I am actually convinced that the Volt will, in fact, save GM. The Volt will be the halo car for the entire company. It will make employees happy to work for GM, it will inspire dealers, and most importantly it will get consumers back into GM cars. I own two Hondas (‘97 Civic and an ‘05 Odyssey) and I would never have considered purchasing a GM car…. until I learned about the Volt. My next car will be the Volt, designed, built, and FUELED in America. (ok, either that or the Saturn plug-in Vue or the Saturn flextreme…. see how that “halo” thing works!).

Mark my words, GM will see this baby through production. They see the world changing around them and they know that in the world of $3.99 gasoline, they can’t survive with a line up gas guzzling SUV’s. Too much is riding on the Volt. Like Maximum Bob said, the Volt is the moon shot for the company.
Jim I Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 10:29 pm

To the management of GM:

Listen to us. Here is what we want you to provide as soon as possible:

The Volt
The Saturn Flextreme
A small pickup truck based on the E-Flex design

Build them with the quality that makes us proud!

Make all of these in different trim levels, so that entry level vehicles are affordable, but offer options packages for those that want them…

If you do this, you will not be able to produce them fast enough to meet demand!

This will get you back on solid financial ground so that you can then re-invent your entire line of vehicles……………

We are waiting!
john1701a Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 10:32 pm

>> Simple Solution

Perhaps if Volt actually offered specs. Instead, there are just vague comments about what might be. Still no effort has emerged here for that clarity either… why?

Until there is a commitment from GM about what will be delivered, how can consumers know what the to support?

Heck, just look at the nonsense behind fuel-cells. The overall purpose still remains a mystery. Price? Efficiency? Range? Offset emissions? Useful life? Plug?
Adam Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 11:04 pm

#20, I agree.. Just like GM had the old 6.5L Turbo Diesel, you couldn’t give them away. Then GM got with Isuzu, and built the DuraMax, and their sales went up 10 fold!!

god knows Now, diesel is sky-rocketing in price… The Volt makes a lot of sense, but for a good many years, they’ve always said there was enough oil, etc….. I guess what makes me the most upset is, GM and other OEM’s wait until they’re almost out of money, then they panic, and try to figure out the best way to survive.

The car companies are much like cell phone carriers. They try to cut each others throat. If they would actually work together instead of pi**ing away all of the money for “R&D”, and god knows what else, maybe they could actually bennefit EVERYBODY!! Will they actually do anything like this? Maybe on a very limited basis, like Nissan and Renault.
Jason M. Hendler Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 11:13 pm

#1, Matt,

I can’t remember if it was on this site, or another, but I suggested that GM might want to create a VC opportunity with their Volt, and try that business model for new vehicle development. Tesla Motors and Fisker Automotive have had no trouble receiving funding for their EV and RE-EV developments, so GM, Ford and Chrysler should try the same thing. Any / all these companies could generate badly needed capital for these long term development efforts.
Firefly Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 11:39 pm

As avid a supporter as I am for GM, domestics in general and the US manufacturing capabilities as a whole, I know that a lot of people might hate me for what I’m about to say, but hear me out. The Volt itself will NOT save GM in the present economy. The technology present IN the Volt will save GM.

GM is neck and neck with Toyota right now, and people associate quality with Toyota. Right now, Toyota has the Camry Hybrid and the Prius. The Corolla gets good gas mileage even without a hybrid powertrain. Lexus has two hybrids and no Scion is offered with anything larger than an inline-4. What GM needs to do a.s.a.p. is to really step up Volt development, and kill this bull$#!t idea of the Tahoe/Yukon hybrid. That has to be the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard of. Spend all of those development dollars to get 20-21 hwy miles out of a Tahoe that a rear end swap and a six speed tranny could do at a 5th of the cost. And after all of that, who really uses these monstrosities? Little urbanite brainless soccer moms weighing no more than 100 lbs. soaking wet who have been lulled into believing that they’d look and fare better in a Tahoe than in an Audi A6 Avant wagon.

How many candidates does GM have for an E-Flex powertrain?
Impala, Malibu, Cobalt, G6, G5, Vibe, Lacrosse, Lucerne…well, too many to mention here but you get the idea. The days of the over-gratuitous SUV is coming to a close. GM should take a look at history. A few million years ago, the dinosaurs died because they couldn’t adapt to a changing earth. Sounds oddly familiar, doesn’t it?
omegaman66 Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 11:51 pm

Man!!! 23 post so far on this article and I think every single post so far has been right on the money.

GM may have been a little antsy about this project initially and they repeatedly said that it was a “risk”. I have repeatedly mentioned that there really is no risk with this drive system since it is the absolute best thing out there regardless of the li batteries.

I don’t think we will be hearing GM repeat the “risk” statements anymore. Truck and SUV sales are dropping like flies! Duh who wants to spend big bucks on a new car that gets crappy mileage and will suck up all your discretionary income.

I have to believe that the recent developments in the price of oil has GM saying “I hope we can get all our cars and trucks converted over before we go bankrupt.”
Speedy Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:02 am

I think I’ve said that myself a number of time firefly. Let see Gm is going to have and do : Chevrolet Volt E Flex Plug In Drive System (Delta 2) Platforum, Chevrolet Cobalt E Flex Plug in Drive System (Delta 2 Platforum), Chevrolet Malibu Sedan E Flex Plug In Drive System (EP2 Platforum), Chevrolet Impala Sedan E Flex Plug in Drive System (EP2 Platforum), Saturn Aura Sedan E Flex Plug in Drive System (EP2 Platforum), Saturn Astra E Flex Plug in Drive System (Delta 2 Platforum), Saab 9-1/ Saab 9-3 E Flex Plug in Drive System (Delta 2 Platforum), Buick Inivicta Sedan/Inivicta Four Door Coupe (not lacrosse any more name change) E Flex Plug In Drive System (EP 2 Platforum).
bruce g Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:14 am

A quick glance at the numbers suggests to me that 2009 will be the last year GM has significant cash available for research and development.
If they want to keep their pride they should focus on the Opel/Saturn line and do a good job of it. .
But of course include the Malibu and Volt,plus a pickup.
Dont bother with facelifts or redevelopments of any of their other lines, they can drift on for a couple of years until the vehicles are obviously irrelevant.
Forget Hydrogen they are throwing their money away.
Nick Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:18 am

I’ve been checking out autobloggreen and have been shocked lately at the amount of EV’s that are coming and the number of three wheel EV’s that have long range (of particular interest to any Californian as you can go in the HOV/Carpool lane with a three wheeler).

GM: I am holding out for you! I have never owned an American car and want to support America. Please hurry up as I don’t know how long my current car will last!

Recession or not, I WANT MY VOLT!!!
Speedy Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:25 am

I hightly dought Gm will stop research and development on there car ’s before or after 2009 no matter what.
MetrologyFirst Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:28 am

There appears to be quite few on here currently that have NO IDEA what it takes to build a car using a completely new chassis design and propulsion system. R & D isn’t the enemy, its the enabling process! The problem is the public, who, through their purchases, tell the companies what to build. Then think the auto makers can turn on a dime and provide something else when gas goes up a buck or two a gallon. I guess that’s to be expected, it is the “I want it now” generation.

In the real world, things like legal ramifications, safety, warranties, maintenance centers, and, oh, a little problem of the availability of parts and the BATTERIES, matter. Not to mention reliability issues, factory tooling,……. never mind.

I guess its more fun to complain about why GM hasn’t done this before now.

Then they could compete with all the other all electric, non-range limited, reasonably priced, sharply styled cars out there now.
MetrologyFirst Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:30 am

Oh, and are able to haul around more than two tiny adults.
GXT Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:53 am

I really hope GM doesn’t go bankrupt or have to cut the Volt before it comes out. The last thing we need is another documentary five years from now playing up the mystique of the Volt… the ultimate car that was snatched from our grasp. Talk about history repeating.

No, GM needs to put this out so that it can be the disaster that it will be. If you thought that rushing out their current line of SUVs at the expense of hybrids/small cars was dumb, wait until you see the uptake of a low-volume $40,000 Volt as compared to a widely available sub-$20K Honda/Toyota hybrid.

While on the subject of GM-hype-and-under-deliver, anyone read the Motor Tred comparo of the small SUVs? Saturn VUE Green Line was the slowest, most expensive, and tied for WORST fuel economy. The Toyota non-hybrid RAV4 4cyl offered 20% better fuel economy than the VUE, 15% better acceleration to 60 and cost 10% less. This is the screw-up legacy of GM and why I have no faith that they can accomplish anything but the simplest of tasks.
http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/suvs/112_0806_compact_crossover_comparison/specifications.html
Speedy Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 1:09 am

Gm will bring the volt to market and It won’t be 40k GXT period.
bruce g Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 3:43 am

GXT,
I find you posts refreshing and amusing but why do you think the japanese can put out a hybrid for half the cost of an american equivalent?
What have they left out?
I see no reason why Toyota can not build a car comparable to the Volt, but it will be close in price. Looking at Prius conversion prices should tell you that.
Both companies are dealing with A123 directly or indirectly.
The crunch will be the drive technology, serial vs parallel
Jim I Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 6:10 am

john1701a #21:

Your continued demand for full disclosure of all specifications is not going to happen from GM anymore than it will from Toyota. And please don’t give us the “Toyota is different” excuse. Quite simply, it is a competitive business, and to give away all your specs 2.5 years before delivery would just not make any sense.

If a Delta-2 platform, E-FLEX based vehicle, with a 16KW battery pack getting 40 miles AER, and 50 MPG after that, with 4 seats, and 5 doors, and having re-gen braking is not enough pre-release specs for you, then all I can say is: sorry……….

GXT #32:

“a widely available sub-$20K Honda/Toyota hybrid.”

Maybe you need to read this:

http://www.hybridcarblog.com/2008/05/prius-price-increase-coming.html

bruce g above has it right…..
Kevin R Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 6:36 am

It’s not the Great Depression for goodness sakes! GM weathered that as did Ford and the unemployment rate was a whopping 24.9% in 1933! Last year our unemployment rate was rising and stood around 5%. They’re still selling cars…..MILLIONS of cars. Just not moving the gas guzzlers of which they’ve got plenty of stock on.

The Volt and others like it will be what helps move this country out of the doldrums its in. If we can become the country that invents, markets and uses alternative energy products and services, we will have reinvented ourselves and our nation. We were the worlds industrial machine from the 1940’s through the 1970s. We can do it again by going green.
BillR Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 6:56 am

I see GM facing 2 problems in the current marketplace, the poor economy and the “wait factor”.

First, we know that high energy prices and other economic factors have put the US into a recession (although some may argue this). The problem for me (and I assume others) is that trading my Envoy (family car) for a smaller car might save money on gas, but overall, its a net financial loss.

At an average 18 mpg, we use about 800 gallons per year of gas for our 4WD Envoy. If I traded for a smaller vehicle that averaged 36 mpg (obvioulsy, with compromises), I could save 400 gallons annually. At $4.00 per gallon, that is $1600 per year. After I pay the yearly excise taxes on the new vehicle, any added insurance, etc, I have about $100 per month to devote to new car payments. The answer is it doesn’t make economic sense to trade while my current vehicle (which is paid off) is running well.

The other factor hurting GM is the “wait factor”. Many on this site have indicated that they will try to hold off from purchasing a new vehicle until the Volt is in showrooms. I believe this same attitude is being shared by many potential car buyers, as they know that cars just a few years from now will get better gas mileage (more hybrids, BAS+, E-Flex, 6 speed auto trans, smaller engines, direct gasoline injection, etc.)

To me, this all points to GM’s need to rush their new products to market, and possibly increase development costs for the next several years. By then, the economy will start to improve, and we will see a large penned-up demand for new efficient automobiles.

We’ve seen this cycle several times over the past 35 years.
RB Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:04 am

This year is a down year, but GM still is selling about 80% of the number of trucks at the peak years. 80% is a lot of trucks. Where GM is in trouble is in having for sale high-mileage cars that appeal to customers in the North American market. Here the Volt is a car that has the potential.
Anonymous Coward Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:14 am

The Volt is the kind of equipment that would help insulate a household against hard times. Since the Volt can be fueled from two dramatically different energy markets, the owner of the car can choose the fuel that best suits their situation. (The markets for ethanol, biodiesel, and their fossil-substitutes are linked pretty strongly together.)

A $50K Hybrid Tahoe, or whatever, really isn’t a vehicle for potentially lean times. A Honda Civic or a Toyota Prius is quite suitable — my girlfriend’s Prius has dramatically lower operating costs than either my VW Jetta TDI or my Ford Ranger. Which is why GM needs a small car relaiable that can stand out from the crowd — none of this “it’s a car to drive while you save up for a ‘real car’” attitude from the designers. The Cavilier/Cobolt looks like it’s intentionally girly looking, for this reason, and the people I know who have bought them have never owned them for very long. Cue the Volt!
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:28 am

Lyle, your article is a little deceiving on GM’s cash flow. You state that, “They (GM) told reporters that they have $24 billion in cash and $7 billion in undrawn loans”

What the article(s) actually say, “At the end of the first quarter, GM had liquidity of about $24 billion and access to about $7 billion in undrawn U.S. committed credit facilities.”

The part of interest is the ‘end of first quarter,’ that was March.

Since then they have already blown billions of dollars:
– HQ bought for 626 million
– committing 200 million to AA
– GM (and Cerberus) forced to back GMAC’s Rescap for 700M
– they got a 132 mil dividend payment coming (only thing holding the stock at 20 bucks)
– just announced shuttering Windsor plant, 1400 jobs slashed, whats the buyout on those? 75K a pop? 100 mil
Kevin R Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:29 am

#30 Metrologyfirst

You’re absolutely right, as it takes months to years to pull something like the Volt off.

However……it can be done in a lot less time if the will is there. It’s been done before.

Fall 1932 Ralph Budd and Edward Budd (no relation) met to discuss a new type of passenger train. A streamlined stainless steel bodied train using techniques of construction that had never existed before. US patent 1,944,106 for attaching stainless steel, US patents 2,256,493 and 2,256,494 to the Budd Company to cover the technique of how to strengthen and beautify the stainless steel sides of the train and the tapered nose (filed after the train was completed). The train also used new electric diesel engines where the diesel engine generates electricity which drives the electric traction motors. Wow…was that ahead of its time!

The train was completed in April 1934, less than two years after it was conceived. This was the height of the Great Depression and yet they pulled this off. You can read about it or watch the documentary. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/streamliners/

This speed of design, building and launching was also done by Defoe Shipbuilding in Bay City Michigan and on a series of fighter aircraft during WWII. Most being created and launched in less than 18 months!

It can be done…it takes guts, determination, dedication and the will to get it done no matter the obstacle. I think GM is traveling this path!
Dave B Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:30 am

Jason @ 24,

If GM was that cash-strapped, I’d think they would be willing to sell off other brands well before separating the Volt model from Chevy. At least for now.

IMO GM needs to get this car out faster. Look at Fisker’s E-REV. Apparently it has a working prototype with 60 miles of range and it was developed in a fraction of the time at a fraction of the cost. GM’s problem is that it has not evolved with the times. Stuck in the same old ways which has slowed it down. It’s drowning under its own weight.
Robert Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:31 am

Could Recession Crash the Volt? That is so funny! I can’t stop laughing! Good economy or bad economy, there is always a some lame reason. Fear is big business!
Dave G Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:33 am

Things are going to get worse. Oil prices are only going up. China and India are buying more and more cars. Oil can’t be pumped out of the ground fast enough to meet world demand. We’re now seeing the beginning of the first real world oil shortage.

Gas prices will go over over $4 / gallon and stay there. As people begin to realize these prices are here to stay, SUV sales will plummit. Fuel efficiency has always been better with foreign cars, so U.S. car makers will be hit the hardest.

But I’m not worried about the Volt. As long as GM doesn’t go out of business, there will be enough money to fund the Volt. A world oil shortage will do wonders for plug-in cars.
Josh Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:41 am

A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We are not in a ‘recession’ (yet) but a slow down (0.6% GDP growth-not good). Let’s use the correct terminology.
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:42 am

Even the ‘talking head’ from GM even says it sucks, “Young said GM should target liquidity of at least $18 billion to $20 billion and $4 billion to $5 billion of credit lines.

Thats down from 24B and 7B respectively.

GM itself is predicting that from April 1st to December 31st, (nine months), they are going to drop almost 9 billion. It’s really bad if thats what they are saying. Thats 3 billion a quarter! At that burn rate, GM has no cash left, no lines of credit in just 10 quarters, 2.5 years…provided the economy just holds as is.

That means September 1st, 2010 GM is unable to support itself…and they are done.

In reality they are done when they get to 10 billion, because thats the ’spook’ level, and all their ratings get slashed, their rates go up and creditors start trying to pick at their bones.

Only way GM survives is throgh gov’t bailout, which I’ll admit is likely. But if the economy does conitinue to worsen, the public may not want the gov’t to blow 10-15 billion a year on propping up GM. (The gov’t could guarantee loans (ala Chrysler), but unlike the old Chrysler bailout in the 80s, the country is in recession and GM’s sales are imploding, meaning new loans only exasporate the problem).
Leon Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:42 am

A recession is defined as negative economic growth for at least 2 quarters. We have not had a single quarter of negative growth yet. Slower than normal growth, yes, but not negative. It’s the media that keeps telling us we’re in a recession because they want folks to demand political change. I hate GWB as much as the next guy, but we must not buy into the media’s line that this is the worst economy since the depression. That doesn’t help anything.

My wife and I are making more money than ever (of course we’re just hitting our prime earning years). We’re in the 95% of the country that are not in foreclosure. The unemployment rate is a tad high but well within norms.
john1701a Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:04 am

>> If a Delta-2 platform, E-FLEX based vehicle, with a 16KW battery
>> pack getting 40 miles AER, and 50 MPG after that, with 4 seats,
>> and 5 doors, and having re-gen braking is not enough pre-release
>> specs for you, then all I can say is: sorry

No wonder there is so much confusion! Some of us have been begging for clarity of purpose. That’s what we mean by telling us specifics, not a list internal components. Here’s some of fundamental questions which still remain unanswered…

What is the market price are they targeting?

What vehicle types/sizes will use the technology?

What efficiency goal do they wish to achieve?

What will be sold to consumers without an outlet?

How will this affect Two-Mode and BAS production?

How will this change the traditional vehicle product line?
Firefly Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:04 am

I pretty much agree with nearly everyone here (and by the way, Speedy, thanks for your comments-much appreciated) I know that we are not in a (technical) recession, but there are so many people feeling the effects. Oil companies keep posting record profits while for the average person, it is coming down to the point that it is too costly to drive to work. The designers at GM aren’t the problem, nor are the engineers. The problem is that GM is run by financiers that do not have the faintest clue of how to build a car, only how to kiss the butts of shareholders. I’m sure that everyone here has heard the phrase “it takes money to make money” but for so long, the bean-counters have tried to find the least-expensive way, no-slash that, CHEAPEST way to build their cars. (and they wonder why they’re suffering net billion losses)

Nearly everyone on this forum has more than workable suggestions of not only how to make the Volt succeed, but how to resurrect GM as well. We know that you can’t equal the Japanese and survive-you have to beat them. Japanese cars are stylish, economical and efficient. GM needs to be gorgeous, innovative and practically priced. I think that GM can do this if they spread the E-Flex R&D to more vehicles. Reduce weights and stop building all those 9000 lb. over-inflated station wagons. As much as I don’t really care for FWD, with E-Flex, it makes sense. Now, shy of Cadillac, how many FWD cars does GM make? There is no way you can make me believe it would be that difficult a transition to do so. Just make the cars 4 seaters instead of a tight fit five if necessary. If someone needs a five seater, then buy a FlexFuel version. But offer the consumer a better choice as far as propulsion that can be charged at home. And yes, make EV versions.

Some people think an EV version won’t work, but I say it should be the buyers choice, not an accountants. They’ll weather the “recession” but what’s important is will they have learned something afterwards…
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:06 am

#45 Josh

You are right, the accepted definition of recession is two down quarters of GDP growth.

The formula for GDP is ‘GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)’

However, the ‘G’ stands for gov’t spending.

The gov’t is spending borrowed money to avoid recession (or essentially to increase GDP). You can see how this is a conundrum, as the more borrowed money they spend…the higher GDP is calculated.

GDP is also a ‘frog in a boiling pot’ statistic, if you don’t consider the value the currency being measured. The US dollar index (value of the dollar vs other currencies) has gone from 120 in 2002 to 73.5. Down almost 40 percent. So the US is ’slightly’ growing the number of dollars it has, unfortunately, those dollars are devaluing much faster than the increase.
Mike Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:07 am

GM had better come out with this car is all I can say. I flat out refuse to buy any American POS car because of how flawed and problematic they are. I’m 29 and have only 4 cars (in this order); 1973 VW Super Beetle, 1988 Chevy Celebrity station wagon (the most godawful piece of crap I’ve ever driven, went through alternators as frequent as oil changes, would refuse to start and would have to crank the starter for 1-2 minutes solid), 1998 Mercury Sable (power Steering went to crap just out of warranty), and my current 2002 VW New Beetle Turbo S (no problems at all). I will continue to buy foreign cars until an American company gives me reason not to. If the Volt is dropped, I’ll just buy a Prius in 2010 when my extended warranty contract expires.
Firefly Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:25 am

#51 Mike exemplifies the average buyer. A little pissed off that in order to enjoy driving and drive fuel efficiently, he has to look away from domestic products to elsewhere (in his case, Germany) I’m not knocking foreign products as I have owned these cars (I think they’re in order)
1988 Pontiac Fiero GT (fire in engine bay)
1993 Hyundai Excel (transmission shot to crap)
1985 Toyota Corolla (wish I still had it-best car I’ve ever owned)
1989 Toyota Camry (close, but no Corolla)
1989 Toyota Celica w/ Celica Turbo engine (hell yeah!)
1998 Hyundai Accent (not the best, but not expensive, either)
1994 Chevrolet Silverado (I miss her, but $137 fill up is too much)
2004 Toyota Corolla Matrix (just something about Corollas)

It’s a shame that the ONLY domestic that never gave me a problem was the one that drank WAY TOO MUCH GAS! The imports always gave me better gas mileage and less mechanical problems. GM, the plan is simple-
Build us a better car (Volt), recession or not, price it fairly, make it do what you say it will, and once you’ve verified that it will do as promised, let the designers make better, more attractive cars we want to buy with the Volt technology, not the overpriced SUV’s that are STILL sitting on dealers lots waiting to be picked up for an $8000 discount. Or? You can face the alternative: Toyota is #1 and everyone buys a Prius, not out of love but out of the fact that it’s the only choice (Honda’s FCX Clarity doesn’t count as the nearest hydrogen filling station is about 2000 some-odd miles from me (I don’t give a crap what Honda says, it isn’t THAT fuel efficient by a long shot!)
Jim I Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:32 am

john1701a #48:

You are changing your story….. The last time you asked your full disclosure question, you wanted specifications about the heating and air conditioning unit. Now you are asking for future sales planning for the corporation!

When Toyota or any other manufacturer answers your questions in detail, then you can ask the same of GM. But don’t hold your breath….
Jim I Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:33 am

Leon #47:

Great post!!!
Eco Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:43 am

The price of oil is driving us into recession. The housing bubble burst, and almost toppled the financial system. But aggressive action by the fed means that once the price of houses bottoms out about 40 percent less than it’s peak, houses will start to move again. That’s going to take two years from now, and unfortunately, a lot of pain.

Oil, however, is going to contract the entire economy. The price of oil will drive GDP down at least a full percent over the next year. That will pop the oil bubble, and oil will drop back to just under 100 dollars a barrel.

But at 100 bucks a barrel, the Volt still wins. So when the economy starts to recover 18 to 24 months from now, GM will have Volts in the showroom. From 2010 to 2020, the demand for gasoline in the US SHOULD decelerate. Not go down, not stop growing, decelerate, on the introduction of new diesel, EREV, and hybrid cars.

that’s all best case scenario, but we live in hope.

GM can last 24 months.
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:45 am

#52 Firefly

Wow, what are the odds? I had a 88 Fiero GT too! Hehe. I loved that car. I think they only made about 6,000 of them. That sure was a dog for GM…but it was great for me, 2nd car I ever owned.

The 88 was a much nicer iteration, 5-speed, new suspension, new brakes. I had some ‘fire issues’ myself. I think it was because of where the friggin wiring harness was, by exhaust manifold, lol.

Had a Excel and ‘03 Vibe as well (so thats kinda like the exact same as a Matrix).

/weird
Mike Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:53 am

An addendum to my #51, I own my own condo, make an ok (not great) salary and live alone. I have no debt and have socked away well over $15k in just cash alone to buy my next car. When I’m ready at the end of 2010 (which coincides nicely with ‘the best time to buy a car’ timeframe) the Volt is at the top of my very short list of cars I’m considering. Yeah I’d love to get Mustang 500gt or something nice like that, but the days of cheap gas to enjoy driving something like that are over, as are driving where and whenever you want without a wanton care of how much gas is. China’s demand for oil isn’t going away; India’s demand for oil isn’t going away; the demand is only growing exponentially in these countries. The time is right for a car like the Volt to be brought to market. As much as I grimace when I have to fill up with premium at close to $4/gallon (I buy at Costco), I know that this country needs gas prices this high, if not higher. Without them, car companies have no incentive to create cars that use fuel more effeciently and we as consumers have no reason to consider buying them. I hope gas reaches $6-7 a gallon honestly (‘I am Legend’ prices). I’ll wince, but I’ll start taking the bus to work until someone comes out with a car that doesn’t guzzle gas like a fat man drinking beer at a frat party.
john1701a Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:57 am

>> You are changing your story….. The last time you asked your full
>> disclosure question, you wanted specifications about the heating
>> and air conditioning unit.

I asked about APPROACH, not for details. And since when is business plan not appropriate to ask? Toyota provided one long in advance of the Prius rollout, spelling out how the technology would be spread to other vehicles and production volume goals. GM should do the same.

Don’t assume that didn’t happen, just because you haven’t come across that history yet. It’s well documented if you search for it.
TOM M Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:00 am

Nasaman:

Good Morning,
You and I seem to share the same ideas with regard to this project.. BIG difference is your education, field of endeavor and scientific knowledge. I was limited to two years of college and seventy years from the school of hard knocks and some common sence thrown in. I am in the energy business and we have in the neighborhood of a thousand producing wells. We prefer natural gas because of the problems with EPA.
My thoughts on this energy crisis is this. We have to take a hard look in the mirror because we have increased this problem with our inability to take responsibility for our own actions. I won’t go into the politics involved in this but I’m sure you have your own ideas on energy policies, or lack of.
Right now we have several alternative energy options and one is that we can purchase autos that are NGV’s This is not rocket sience.( no pun intended) In the late 60’s and 70’s I used propane on my ranch east of San Antonio. My trucks were adapted to use propane or gas, tractors were propane only. Yes, there is some performance loss, but these engines were so clean when torn down, no carbon build up and no polution problems because of clean burning.
At present the easiest NGV auto to acquire is the Honda GX NGV. MSRP. . $24,590 + TT&L rated 24/36 MPG. I believe GM has some available fro fleets If you have NG in your home a small refueling unit is available from Canada, PHIL by Fuelmaker. In addition to this there are several home bio diesel kits available at a very reasonable price. I think the smallest unit produces 40 gal. per. day.
Now, all this being said we will have to look at making some life style changes. For example, do we ( husband & wife) need to drive two cars to work? Can we car pool or use public transportation ? I realize that these are not options for all of us, but it is something to consider. Ask employers if it is possible to work from home? This seems to be a trend in our area. These are things that can impact us right now. Please believe me, the energy situation is not going to get better for some time untill we can reduce our consumption more that the 7% we have just accomplished. We are not allowed to explore in the known reserves because of current politics.We need to elect leaders that will set down together and formulate a realistic energy policy and stick to it to obtain dependence from foreign energy.
Yes, the VOLT has a place in all this planning but we are more than two years away form obtaining this auto. Now is the time to plan for the future of our children. AMERICA is a great and wonderful nation, lets all strive to make it better. We need leaders that are going to work hard, cooperate and make sacrifices to fix it. The alternative is not so good. Enough preaching from an old fogy.

Tom
cburk Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:06 am

Have you guys ever considered that the Volt may be way ahead of schedule already and that GM isn’t releasing information on purpose because they want to keep their competition guessing? Look at this way, Gas prices keep going up, almost $3.95 in Indianapolis this morning. Pretty soon it will be easily over $4.00 a gallon maybe even $5.00 by the end of 2008. Sounds like a perfect storm to me. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if GM released the Volt 6 months to a year earlier than what they have promised. The truth is that it is going to take a year or more of $4-$5 gas to get the average American mentally ready to embrace new technology that at first is going to have limitations such as 40-50 miles on electric per charge. Right now most American still are holding onto the pipe dream that oil prices are going to come back down. In my opinion the only way oil prices are going to come back down is when at least 30% of the USA has moved to alternative fuels and the demand for oil drops.
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:08 am

#55 Eco

I’m with you mostly on this one, I figure another couple years of a downtrend before it gets any better.

I do think GM can live 24 months, they can probably even ‘fancy dance’ a good deal longer than that (thats why they have accountants…right? hehe).

Recoveries are a gradual thing however, slow incremental growth from the bottom. It might take 4-5 years to get to where we were, which would be great. The problem with that for GM is that they were losing money like crazy even in that environment.

The discussion here is always people predicting how long will it take GM to run out of money. It is never, when will GM have a profitable year…and that is the problem, especially going down this economic hill.
MetrologyFirst Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:10 am

Firefly @ 49 :

I’m not sure how you can make statements like “Japanese cars are stylish” with a straight face.

I’ll give you economical, but even that is based on carefully managed impression and expectations. I would argue that GM’s stuff they build now is for the most part, is equal to most Japanese offerings. At this point, its the historical impression GM needs to overcome, not the actual build quality.

As far as managing expectations, I had to put a fuel pump on my 2003 Pontiac at 110K miles, first part replacement to date. A friend of mine said “See! It always happens with GM cars!” It cost $450.

The same friend just spent about $450 on “routine” maintenance on his Camry. At 75K miles. I didn’t bother to point out the irony here. He claims his car has been trouble free, as expected of course.

Like I said, its a question of expectations and impressions. Facts rarely matter anymore.
MarkinWI Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:18 am

I agree with #47. Technically, we are not in a recession. Politicians have been jumping all over it, and so has the media. I think it’s less about the media wanting a particular outcome, and more about the media outlets all wanting to promote their ratings. Stories drive ratings. If there is not a great story to report, then over-report a mediocre one.

I don’t think that oil prices will be dropping below $100 a barrel. I think we all can agree that the main driver of oil prices is increased demand, particularly from China and India. The main post even pointed to this reality: GM’s double-digit car sales increases in China. So oil is not going down, and hybrids are the hot selling cars right now. All the more reason for GM to push the Volt and save itself.

Oil prices are driving up food and other costs. As I’m writing this the media is reporting the highest 1-month food cost jump on record. Food is made using petroleum based chemicals, and more importantly, transported largely via the petroleum based trucking industry. I would expect inflation for all goods to continue due to this fact, but so far it has been moderate. So either inflation will be moderate or suppliers are eating the increased fuel costs, for now.

The housing bubble (like other investment bubbles before it) is largely driven by too much money chasing too few quality investments, and lax regulation.

Sum it all up and we have an economy with some long-term flaws (vulnerability to oil price fluctuations, trade deficit, excessive consumer borrowing) and some short term issues (housing bubble). We need some fundamental changes to address these issues. But the Volt is part of the solution, not part of the problem. Even if GM collapses (unlikely, e.g. the Reagan administration bailed out Chrysler), someone else will buy the pieces from GM, and the future will get here a little later.
Canuck Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:19 am

Without question YES. Of course, few people will be paying so much for a car during recession. No brainer.

Which is the big reason why GM has to offer a decent low cost hybrid, maybe in Saturn line. It doesn’t have be 100% electric, it doesn’t have to have a huge expensive battery, but needs a decent hybrid system and decent size battery to achieve 70+ mpg.

Honda and Toyota are both going after that space. The trick is making such a machine affordable.
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:25 am

#60 cburk

“Have you guys ever considered that the Volt may be way ahead of schedule already and that GM isn’t releasing information on purpose because they want to keep their competition guessing?”

No.

The Hamtramck assembly plant is still producing Cadillac DTS and Buick Lucerne sedans. They have committed to the union (while they were shutting down 1 of the shifts under the new UAW deal last October) to continue this production through 2009.

These models (well maybe not the Buick), will be moving to the Zeta platform in 2010, which is in Oshawa Ontario.

The plant will then do a switch over to the next gen Opel Zafira in late 2009. Then once that line is running, GM will start working on the Volt infrastructure. Given the excessive delays GM has encountered starting new ‘next gen’ assembly lines (see Camaro, et al), GM will be very, very lucky to push more than a ‘one off’ the end of the line by the close of 2010.
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:26 am

Er…that should be #61, not 60.

(Those awaiting moderation posts always mess up the numbers, hehe)
j man Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:44 am

The Volt will be what Saves GM. Once they get the Volt out and see that it sells and that they can’t build them fast enough they will see they have a winner. Then sice the platform is there all they hve to to is stick a different body on it and then you have two electric cars. $$$$$ Cha Ching

By they way, when are you people going to realize that Toyota does not want GM. Why would a profitable company that screws their employees with lower wages and crappy benefits and no retiree healthcare want to buy a company that offers all these great things thanks to the UAW.

Once I know the Volt is ready to go I will be at the dealership waiting for the door to be unlocked so I can order mine. While I am waiting for it, I will be setting up my solar panels that will be charging my Volt when it arrives. 100% energy independance for daily use!
Kevin R Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:52 am

#68 J man

Agree completely and that is my goal, solar panels on the garage roof and no grid power for my Volt.
Theoldguy Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:56 am

If GM wanted the Volt out in late 2009 …. they would swith and retool one of their assembly lines NOW… If the unions holler… offer them the choice…. switch or be shut down due to financial restructuring.. Most of those Unions are what is killing GM right now.. way too many benefits (not that I wouldn’t mind having them on my job) and rediculas wages to be on an “assembly line”..
Come on GM … You should be making MAJOR changes both in the way the vehicles are made and the types YOU think are selling .
I want my Volt and soon….
Tim Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 10:10 am

The elitist congressional Neocons and Democratic-Socialists blatant disregard for Constitutional limitations on federal power has resulted in uncontrolled deficit spending which has forced the Fed to hyper-inflate the fiat money supply. The current Presidential candidates (save one) will continue to disregard the Constitutional limitations stated in the 10th Amendment as they build the North American Union as part of their New World Socialist Oligarch Order. No relief is in sight so beware of promised “change”.

Ron Paul – Interview about the Economic Crash
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=%22Interview+about+the+Economic+Crash%22&search_type=

The resulting collapse of the US fiat $Dollar as THE international currency is causing recession globally and depression in the United States. This trend will worsen. The first economic sectors to suffer will be those dependent upon middle class discretionary (luxury) spending such as hospitality, travel, etc. Think Great Depression with a Federal government that can’t borrow its way into “new deal” socialist projects and socialist security welfare pyramid schemes.

In other words, the Volt will die like SUVs and Light Trucks for general transportation if it is not inexpensive to buy and cheap to own. GM can over engineer itself into oblivion.
Randy C. Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 10:12 am

GM could turn its financial fortune around in one quick step. It involves no new engineering or research. Just by getting off their high horse, begin building and selling the EV1 again. Everything needed to make the car go exists now. America is ready for the EV1 now more than ever. Two and a half years is a long time to wait and watch fuel prices top $12.00 a gallon which is what it will be at the current rate. It would also restore a lot of faith in the company.
Kevin R Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 10:26 am

#71 Randy C.

There are thousands of people out there that would buy an updated EV-1. It definitely would have a market now. I would not be one of those buyers as it wouldn’t meet my needs. I travel long distances once a month or so and would need the range extender. I also need the four person capacity. But if the dies are still available and the factory floor space is (it was in Lansing, MIchigan), then I would say, ramp that thing up and turn them out. They’d sell a ton of them to those that the EV-1 meets their needs.
noel park Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 10:45 am

Wow. I started this thing up at 8:00 PDT and there were 71 comments already! What else is there to day? Well done to all.

#37 & #42 Kevin R:

All of the above are excellent, but your comments really struck a chord. Thanks.
noel park Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 10:55 am

Rashiid Amul:

Wasn’t it you who speculated that the w-word throws this thing into moderation? I think that you must be right. I just used it in what must be one of the least controversial comments I have ever sent in, and it went directly there.
noel park Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 10:57 am

As a comment on this post, I would offer my comment at #109 on the Nissan-Renault electric car thread yesterday. It was pretty long, and basically made the same points that so many of you have made above, so I won’t bore you by repeating it.
N Riley Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 11:15 am

GM will weather the economy slow down.
The Volt will be produced.
Everyone has a reason and timetable for purchasing a car.
Some potential Volt customers will purchase from the competition.
This will be a good thing.
Volt production will not support demand for the first couple years.
This will be a good thing.
GM will marry the Volt powertrain to their other small/mid-size cars.
This will be a good thing.
GM will develop a Volt style small pickup truck.
This will be a good thing.
I will buy a Volt as soon as available in my area.
This will be a good thing.
Tim Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 11:19 am

I’d be happy with the EV-1 with the new batteries too as long as I could BUY the car for less than $25K
noel park Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 11:31 am

#76 N Riley:

God send that it shall be true.
GM Volt Fan Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 11:35 am

GM may have to drop a few of the gas guzzling trucks and SUVs … or at least cut back production a good bit. I doubt ANYTHING could stop the momentum building for the Chevy Volt though. It sure sounds like GM is hell bent on bringing the Volt to the world in late 2010 … although I wouldn’t be surprised to see it delayed til spring 2011.

Hopefully not. We need the Volt ASAP because of these damn gas prices. GM could be selling a LOT of Volts this year if they were on the market now. A lot of car sales that could be GMs are going to the Prius. Toyota will be getting even more sales when their next generation Prius comes out (in 2009?). GM needs to have the right kind of cars available at the right times and they need to be high quality …. gotta get those good ratings from JD Power, Consumer Reports, Motor Trend, etc.

That’s the key in my opinion … well designed, high quality cars that look good and have the features people really need and want. Right now, good gas mileage is a big priority and probably will be for the next 10 years at least … until everyone is running on electrons instead of burning liquid fuels. Even though the Volt will be priced kind of high, I still think it is VERY smart decision for GM to develop the Volt. It’ll be a “halo car” that shows GM is a technological leader … still a “big dog” in the automotive world.

There will be PLENTY of people who will want to stick it to OPEC and the oil companies and help the environment while they are at it. A lot of people will probably want to buy the Volt purely so they won’t have to be irritated by gas prices very much anymore. Buying gas will only be something they have to do 4-5 times a YEAR … maybe less. For new Volt owners, gas prices will become OTHER people’s problem … not theirs anymore. People will pay a little more in car payments for that kind of peace of mind.
George K Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 11:36 am

And, now, an other side of the news:

While GM lost $3.3 B for the 1st qtr, excluding one time charges, they lost $350 million! That exceeded analysts estimates. 2nd Qtr doesn’t look good, but 2nd half of year looks better.

GM revenues were up 20% OUTSIDE of N. America.

Unemployment end of April was 5.0, less than the avg. during internet bubble 1992-2000.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24383373/

I hope GM is taking this time to seriously think of cutting unprofitable (trending) N. American lines. E-Flex rippling thru GM is the future, and the sooner they get there the sooner they will be on the road to recovery.

The Volt and Flextreme are are only the beginning.
g Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 11:41 am

The Unions did not tell GM not to make the ev1. The Unions did not tell GM to go into the Morgage industry. The Unions did not tell GM to buy Fiat and lose billions on the sale. If Gm made the volt the public would buy them. Why are the truck engines not all DI? The Union workers build the Malibu, Enclave,And the CTS all are selling with low incentives. Design sells cars. If GM put fuel eff engines in the truck line they would sell more. The era of cheap oil is over, GM must plan for 5 and 6 dollar gas. As to tooling a factory , the volt is based on delta 2 platform and can be built in any plant that can build delta 2 world wide. Dual mode should be standard on all pickups and Suvs with non dual mode a option. All Dual modes should have a plug in option like the Vue. When gas hits 6 dollars the company with the best eff wins. The era of cheap oil is over and its not a union workers fault.
WD Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 11:44 am

Great News –

Chevy Volt: Traveling Public Roads and Hitting Its Mark

http://www.autoobserver.com/2008/05/chevy_volt_traveling_public_ro.html
Tim Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 11:57 am

“I can almost say the battery is the least of our problems,” Lutz told AutoObserver.

WOW! Thanks WD (#81) for the link!
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:02 pm

Back to topic:

This just out from Lehman 10 mins ago…kinda the same thing I said, but here it is:

GM will need over $9 billion in new financing: Lehman

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080514/gm_financing.html?.v=1
Jim I Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:13 pm

WD #80:

That is wonderful news!!!!

Now they just have to change that initial run from 10K units back to 60K+!!!!

Getting more excited……..
scott Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:15 pm

WD #80: That’s HUGE news!!!! One positive light at the end of the tunnel for GM.
Jean-Charles Jacquemin Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:15 pm

WD #80,

Thanks a lot for the link,

Jim I #21

I’m a little late today on the site, I agree completely with you.
Jason H Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:15 pm

I can’t believe this entire thread. GM never said anything about canceling the Volt. This is pure speculation by some moron at CNN Money, and am dissapointed the article showed up here of all places. This inevitably brought on a new round of GM and Union bashing. I also can’t believe all the people here that seem to think GM could start selling the EV1 tomorrow if they really wanted to. The EV1 is an old car and most likely wouldn’t meet current safetly regulations. Even if all the original tooling for the EV1 still existed (which it doesn’t) it would take some time to set up an assembly plant to build it. Not to mention that the Volt cost $80,000 per copy (not adjusting for inflation) to build which is why they were only leased in the first place. If people want to spend that kind of money on an electric two seater they can go buy a Tesla. Oh that’s right, Tesla doesn’t have any cars for sale yet! How about a new discussion on how the Volt’s battery is meeting it’s range and temperature targets?
Joe Martin Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:16 pm

It may be worthwhile for GM to consider a different way to sell cars, and take note from how Dell has conducted their business for years.

For instance, I think every dealer should have at least 3 levels of every vehicle on their lot: one as bare as you can buy it, one as loaded as you can buy it, and one in the middle with what they expect people will buy most often.

People can then test drive the vehicle which I think is extremely important, and also decide what options they want and which they do not want. I hate packages personally because in order to get the one thing I want I have to buy a bunch that I don’t, but I digress.

When people decide what they want, they draw up a purchase order and the order is placed in queue at the assembly plant for that vehicle. Based on current production timelines, the vehicle could be built in 2 days and in the customers hands in about a week.

I do not think the problem with GM is that they are taking a loss on the vehicles they sell, the problem is that they don’t sell all the vehicles they make. This would alleviate the problem quite a bit. On a related note, isn’t this how the Saturn brand started up?
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:22 pm

Interesting article:

Sounds like all good news…and there is a nice dig at Toyota in there by Lutz.

I found this telling:
“Three months ago if you asked Frank Weber ’so November 2010?’ he’d get flustered and say he wouldn’t answer until he knew more,” said Lutz. “Now if you ask him the same question, he’s calm and relaxed and says unless we encounter some completely unforeseen obstacle – November 2010 looks good.”

You remember GM ever telling us about being ‘flustered with Nov 2010′ and not telling us a answer? Even a slight hint? I don’t.

All I can remember is GM blowing kisses at us about how ‘on target’ the production date is ever since they said Nov 2010. Now they say, “We are doing great, we ‘really’ might hit Nov 2010. We used to think different” …even though that is unverifiable since they told absolutely no one.

Either they are lying to us, or to themselves. Neither is good.

I think it’s all just Lutz though. GM really needs to have just 1 dude (preferably with some auditory skills) that talks to the public…and tell everyone else to shut it.
LazP Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:24 pm

I am one of the earlier followers of this website. This commentary attributed to GM is about as idiotic as it gets. If the Volt and/or is ilk did not exist somebody would have to invent it for the 21th century. As I see it this is the perfect vehicle to transition into the new century. The 20th century was the century of the combustion engine and this will be the century of electrification of transportation. All the hype about alternate fuels are nuts. The only solution that make sense is electricity. The Volt perfectly represents that initial transition to fully electric transportation of the future. The current recession if indeed this is one should in fact enhance GM-s effort to produce the Volt in the price range most appealing to the public.
DaveP Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:24 pm

Volt seems pretty secure. GM knows sales are down on SUVs so what else are they going to make? You’ll probably see some more rebadged suzukis or something in the short term, but longer term GM knows they have to make something themselves (cheap) to make money like they’re used to. Except for the batteries, eventually the e-flex system should be way cheaper to make than even SUVs are (especially once they optimize that ICE generator for e-flex it should be way cheaper than a normal drivetrain).
If they start driving volume, the battery prices will come down, too, setting them up to be in a very good position.
I don’t see any other long term bet for them that looks better.

Additionally, GM has more financial fortitude than Ford or Chrysler which are sure to go under before GM, thereby boosting GM’s sales. GM ought to survive long enough to get the Volt out the door.
ThombDbhomb Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:26 pm

WD #80,

Thanks for the link! I actually got excitement “chills” while reading it. This Volt thing is going to be HUGE!
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:27 pm

#84 Jason

I think what they really meant was ‘EV-1′ish.

Barebones, old tech today thinking. Just push a Aveo/Wave out the door (already passes safeties) with some batteries securely in the trunk (nothing fancy like integrated sub floor like the Volt), put 20K on it and watch it fly.
ThombDbhomb Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:33 pm

#85 Statik

I recall GM hedging on 2010. We can probably find multiple statements to that effect on this web site. For example,
http://gm-volt.com/2008/05/01/gm-ceo-wagoner-2010-volt-launch-remains-on-schedule-and-optimism-building/

#87 DaveP
“GM knows sales are down on SUVs so what else are they going to make?”

As a stop-gap, GM should throw some giant batteries in the truck beds and sell’em that way (joke).
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:35 pm

#87 Dave

Actually Ford has 34 billion in cash to GMs estimated 22 billion. Ford does carries AP of around 90 compared to GMs 70. However, Gm sold all its investments off to get their cash pile and reduce long term debt, whilest Ford still has 150B or so.

Ford’s debt position is much worse. 275B v 185B, but Fords debt payment abilities are far greater…meaning they can service their debt, even though higher, much longer.

Chrysler on the other hand is at the whim of Cerberus. They could run almost with no limits…or Cerberus could cut their losses and Chrysler is in the dumpster immediately…hard call there.
Tim Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:36 pm

Statik (#91)

You are correct! When I said the EV-1, I was referring to simple, economical, GOOD looking, highway capable BEV-120 that will handle 92% of the population’s daily commute with Air, Electric Windows, Power Steering, 2+ seats and some get up and go power… that’s ALL!

I need to commute, NOT drive from Washington to Florida.
Joe Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 12:38 pm

I don’t think it can crash the Volt. The Volt is the future. If the Volt is high price, only the rich will buy it. If it is affordable to the average person, then it will sell like hotcakes because of the price of the gas. A recession will have not affect.
MetrologyFirst Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 1:14 pm

LazP @86
Jason H @ 84

Thank you!

I thought I was in a parallel universe or something…………….
ThombDbhomb Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 1:14 pm

What is the deal with this site’s comment moderation? How long does it take? Do some things not pass moderation? One of my comments hasn’t been posted, even though it has been a while since I submitted it. It wasn’t controversial.
Jason H Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 1:22 pm

#89 Statik

I would also like to see GM put it’s fancy new battery technology in the smallest global car they have, and sell it as a cheap pure electric. However, unless they can do this with all ‘off the shelf’ parts it would still take at least two years. Sure small startups can throw cars together quickly, but ‘real’ car companies actually test their cars properly before unleashing them on the first sucker who shows up with the cash. Tesla with a non-functioning one speed transmission anyone? For some reason exotic cars from small companies seem to be forgiven for quality lapses or even fundamental design errors. GM, or even Toyota for that matter, get no such forgiveness. The Volt had better be reliable, long lasting, and get the advertised range.
omegaman66 Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 1:37 pm

60K is good news!

On another subject: Lets see… GM started the volt project before they announced it and well before gas was 3 dollars a gallon. The price of energy which affects everything has gone through the roof and is knocking the economy into the dirt.

And some of you are Happy that the price of gas is high and actually hopeing for higher prices. How can you be happy with people loseing their jobs and others not being able to afford as much which is going to further hurt the economy.

Pretty sad especially considering the fact that people have been clamering/wanting/hopeing for a volt with gas at 2 dollars a gallon.

When you loose your job because the economy is in the dumps I wonder how happy you will be that gas is at 6 dollars a gallon.

The talk of GM dropping the volt is laughable.
JonP. Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 1:52 pm

Has anyone thought about what will happen once we stop buying so much gas. I know they put petroleum in everything but if there is a major switch to electric gas prices will be vastly effected.

The question in my mind is how are we going to convince the world bank, and more importantly OPEC to keep denominating the sale of barrels of oil in dollars. Which is the primary reason why our currency is the dominant currency in the world. If OPEC was to switch to say the Euro (which is what IRAN wants to do and why inevitably no matter what you read why we will invade iran to stop them from selling cheap oil in euros and destroy the dollar) what do you think will happen to the dollar when the world stage is unintersted in it anymore.

Being that we import almost all of our basic daily needs, and almost everything we buy/use or have. It will be pretty interesting around here when china is no longer exporting goods to the USA because no one here will be able to afford anything there selling. Unless of course you have a couple of grams of gold in your house (ooops i forgot they made it a crime to have gold right after they created the federal reserve in 1930) nevermind.

Long story short there is alot more to this story then buying oil from our enemies, if we stop buying gas, or better yet if we stop buying the most gas in the world, we’ll be worried about alot more than how much your 23 mile trip to work will cost you. Things like clean water, and food will start to matter to people then, instead of who will win American Idol.
N Riley Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 1:55 pm

I ma glad to see the Volt mule on the highway. Just one more step accomplished.

We all need to take a deep breath and just relax. We have quite sometime left before we will see a Volt in our driveway. Give GM time and it will happen. They are well on their way and it can be done only so fast. I, too, want a Volt today. But like all things, we have to wait our turn.

This has been an interesting discussion today. Let’s continue staying on subject. We have to keep GM wanting to know what we think, not all of the variations of discussions (bashings) we have done lately. (I admit to being guilty to that also.)

Go Volt. And good luck to all of you and I hope we all have a good future.
N Riley Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 1:56 pm

I am glad (not i ma glad). Darn typos.
George K Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 2:03 pm

GM’s loss isn’t as bad as it sounds. In the 1st qtr. they lost $3.25 B. However, if you remove one time items, they lost $325 Million! which was above analysts estimates.

Additionally, revenues grew by 20%, excluding N. America.

GM needs to take a hard look at domestic brands TRENDS, and perhaps do major cutting at the MODEL level. Sounds like a job for Lutz, to me.

The Volt and Flextreme are very important to GM. But, E-Flex is GM’s future. The sooner they can get to that platform, the sooner GM will be on the road to success.
N Riley Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 2:15 pm

George K

You are correct. Except that Americans are so used to having a wide variety of vehicles from which to choose. I agree GM and the others would do better to reduce the number of cars they produce and concentrate on the ones that are selling. But, who is going to decide. Generally market forces make those decisions. If people don’t buy, those vehicles do not continue in production.
George K Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 2:44 pm

N. Riley.
I think we’re saying the same thing. Look at the performance of each line, and make projections for future sales trends. If the line is pointing to Florida ie, ” \ ” (South East), that’s a candidate for the chopping block.

Perhaps, they need to chop and combine, like Buick with Pontiac (that’s just an example!).

But it may take someone like Lutz to make the tough decisions. I used to work for Cullinet, a software company that had guaranteed $millions coming in in maintenance fees each year. But new sales were going South. It was very hard for management to make tough dynamic decisions. They didn’t lay off enough soon enough, and went belly-up.
ThombDbhomb Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 3:49 pm

#96 omegaman66

I doubt people are happy about people losing their jobs. It is more likely that people believe that a dramatic change in auto technology is vital and the high gas prices will foment the shift in auto technology. I could be wrong. I’ll checj; is anybody out there happy that people are losing their jobs?
Tagamet Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 4:02 pm

STATIK!!! I can’t believe how you tried to twist the article posted by WD ! Even for you that was quite a waltz. BTW, When did you stop beating your wife? (g) (shakes head slowly)
Anyway, the article was full of promising quotes from Maximum Bob, et. al. Among other things, he said that they could productionize the Volt sans engine NOW (but didn’t want to deal with range anxiety), that the battery is now “the least of their problems”, and that the 40 mile AER was in a different body style than the final Volt (so what happens when that drag is reduced dramatically- I’m guessing that 40 goes up)
Tagamet Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 4:04 pm

OH, and why NOT hope for an early release? (LOL)
DaveP Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 4:08 pm

#90 Statik
Good point about Ford and Chrysler. However, GM’s losses aren’t all burning cash, a huge amount is writedown related and may not be affecting their pile of cash very much. The actual risk to their cash pile is probably far less than the articles make it sound.
But here’s an alternate thought, then. Maybe Ford could license e-flex drive systems from GM instead of HSD systems from Toyota thus underwriting some of the Volt’s development costs (if things get dicey).
I certainly haven’t heard any indication of things getting dicey for the Volt development, though. Seems to be greenlights all the way, still. Cool.
Rashiid Amul Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 4:11 pm

#73 noel park. Yes, it was me. It was really bugging me. I thought I would experiment with that that word in upper case and it went straight into moderation. I don’t know if the same is true for the same word in lower case. I agree with you. It is a silly word to call for moderation when some curse words don’t.
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 4:32 pm

#105 Dave P

Collusion amongst the big 2.8 is a fabulous idea. Share ideas platforms, while not assume each others inherent risks. They have get together and look at making the segment profitable for each other…rather than just trying to deliver the death blow to each other.

#103 Tag

I can find the soft underbelly of any article…it’s kind of my thing.

(=
Tagamet Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 4:52 pm

#103 Tag

I can find the soft underbelly of any article…it’s kind of my thing.

or invent one
noel park Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 5:17 pm

#91 Statik:

Speaking of Cerberus, they must be up to something. The Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep loss leader ads in the LA papers the last couple of weekends have been breathtakingly cheap. I guess they’re just dumping inventory, but who knows? I was going to comment on it Monday, but I couldn’t remember how to spell Cerberus, LOL. I was too lazy to look it up. Thanks for your help.

BTW, Cerberus had a ton of money in a real estate development scheme here that just defaulted on a $1 BILLION loan. Nobody’s perfect.

Beware the Hound of Hell!

#96 Jason H:

Small startup car companies may get some sort of a pass in the fan magazines or somewhere, but seldom to never in the marketplace. Can anyone say Delorean, Bricklin, Vector, Saleen, or De Soto, Plymouth, Edsel, Tucker, Kaiser or Muntz Jet, come to that? There are hundreds which have come and gone over the history of the automobile. How about Oldsmobile?

There is no way in the world that I would buy a Tesla or a Fisker at any price. They will disappear without a trace quite soon, IMHO. They are either vanity cars or stock promotions, as far as I am concerned.

#107 Rashiid Amul:

I used it as a one word sentence. One upper case and two lower. It bounced too. It actually came through later above. Or maybe not. It shows on my screen as #73, still awaiting moderation. I’m sure you’re right. Probably just some dumb software glitch, but it made me laugh when it kicked out, thinking of you.
j man Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 7:29 pm

I few people have complained about the high price of the car. Currently I ave $70 a week and my wife averages $50 a week for her car. That means we are spending $6240 a year in gas for our two vehicles (‘03 Impala & ‘04 Chevy 3500 w/diesel). Withing the next 3 years we will need to replace the Impala with something else. Most likely something in the $25k to $35k range depending on what we decide to get. Of the Volt is $35k and most of our driving is less than 40 miles(to work and to town for groceriees) we can cut our gas bill down to $1500 or so for the days that we both work or need to take my truck to get something big. That would be a savings of $4740 per year in gas. Based on a $35k price tag and a savings of $4740 the car pays for itself in a little over 7 years, That is just in fuel savings. If we keep the car for 10 years (GMs expected life span for the batteries/car) we have three years of free driving that would total $14,220 in additional fuel savings. This is based on todays gas prices so the savings could be greater as gas prices rise.

Also, GM is now starting to pick where the car will be built. The will need time to run out curent production on the vehicles being built there. Then they will need about a year to retool the plant. At the same time they need to start casting the engine for the car. Time is needed for tooling to get it ready for production as well as the testing that goes into the block before it is ready for regular production. They need to make the dies for the bady, usually a year process and then test them out to make sure they are right, this takes a couple months. Then GM needs to find sippliers to make all the other stuff that needs to be maid and time is needed for that tooling. Making a car is usually a 3 year minumum process before they are up for sale. This just can’t be done overnight.

Just remember, good things come to those who wait.
TED in Fort Myers Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:01 pm

I’ll be glad to be waiting for my Volt. I have 31,000 miles on my Insight and am getting 60 MPG. I am looking forward to the day when I buy no gas at all. Build the car….GM fast.
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:18 pm

#113 Tag

I don’t invent anything, I have yet to do that here. I simply process information analytically and with a critical eye, regardless of the fact I want a electric car.

All my post asked was if anyone can remember GM even giving a slight hint about missing a production deadline…I suggested if anything they have been over optimistic in talking up the press this year

Now, Lutz today says that they were so ‘flustered’ and doubtful he couldn’t even get a answer from the Volt team on meeting the Nov 2010 production deadline.

As always, my tone seems serious, but I’m always up for a good debate. If you can find any press release from GM (or statement from Lutz/Wagoner) this year that references the fact they think they are going to miss the deadline. I will conceed the point to you,

If you say I invent things…quote something I said, then disprove it. Blanket statements are impossible to defend…or justify.
Statik Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:19 pm

I will say I kept my post way down here on this thread and didn’t ‘litter’ the new thread topic about it.

…I’m not that crazy, I’d need a fire suit. And I didn’t want to be a monster killjoy. I prefer midsize killjoy.
Tagamet Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:33 pm

…I’m not that crazy, I’d need a fire suit. And I didn’t want to be a monster killjoy. I prefer midsize killjoy.

Thank heavens for (very) small favors (g)
I’ll get back to you on a quote, but weren’t you at the VoltNation get together? I don’t remember a single member of the team that was CLOSE to comfortable about the 2010 date. MAAAAAAAAAAYbe Bob….
bruce g Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:39 pm

I wonder where that comment came from that Lutz said “he could productionise the Volt”.
If he did say it, what did Wagoner say in response?
Get on with it?
Tagamet Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:43 pm

bruce g
Did you read the article?
bruce g Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:48 pm

I probably mean metaphorically.
They must have has a lot of good days in the laboratory since Volt Nation.
Tagamet Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:54 pm

I meant literally. The quote about “productionizing” was in the article.
Dan P Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 5:31 am

No, the Volt will succeed. It will be the car that saves GM. I just hope they have an option for graphics on the bumper and the hood that states, “Hey OPEC… Plug this and kiss my American gas!”
Jimmy Hodges Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 12:42 pm

Make the Volt! I’m trying to get my ‘96 Grand Am to last until I can get one. I won’t buy a foreign hybrid, I want a Volt. At $35,000 I’ll be able to afford it!
Jim in PA Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 1:43 pm

My Grand Am only has a paltry 106,000 miles on it. Like most solid GM cars I have bought, I am sure it has at least another 50,000 miles left (but I hoping to break 200,000K so I can smirk at Honda owners). Looks like the timing of the Volt may work out well for me to trade in my Grand Am in a couple of years for a new Volt. Come on, GM, don’t let me down. My next car WILL be a hybrid at a minimum, and I would hate for you to force me to buy a Japanese car.
Kevin R Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 6:06 pm

#129 Jim in PA

Ditto! My Pontiac Bonneville is pushing 165,000 miles and going strong. No problems. It can’t last forever and I am timing it out to buy the Volt in 2010 to replace it. If the Volt isn’t here and available for me at the close of 2010 I will have to purchase from another company, though I don’t want to. I will not buy a hybrid, nor will I buy another ICE driven car. I want the Volt and if need be, another similar to it.
PJK Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 8:10 pm

I have a friend who has 5 Pontiac Bonnevilles… all of which have over 200,000 miles on them… I too have a 92 Bonneville that has better looking paint on it than a new Honda or Toyota… and it has it’s original exhaust… tranny..etc never needed a timing belt replaced either..
I think the Volt would be a good replacement. Or maybe a utility version of the VOLT… the GM Milford proving grounds are the best by far in the world… I saw a commercial for one auto company stating that they have a test track with 6 miles of track… the GM proving grounds has over 123 miles of roads including a 5 mile high speed oval .. they test every car made… they don’t just rely on computer “simulation” then use the buyers for testers… they are running “mules” of the

I’m ready for electric… no tranny… no exhaust… one moving part in the motor… might have to settle for a battery … but hydrogen fuel cell will be the best.
I just heard today that the economy has leveled out even with the high gas prices…
I think the VOLT will sell even in a recession… just hope they have a low cost option.
j man Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:43 am

The generater in the car to recharge the battery is going to be a motor so there will still be an exhaust. It will still have some emmisions of you go over the 40 mile range or whatever it will be but it will be considerably less than a regular car.

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