If the Volt’s Cost is About the Batteries, How Much Do the Batteries Cost?
Previously I shared GM vice-chair Bob Lutz’ discussion on how much the Volt will cost, and it boiled down to how much suppliers will charge GM for the lithium-ion battery packs, clearly the biggest chunk of the total cost of the car.
As Lutz has said, one of the motivating factors for using lithium-ion cells, is that cost is expected to come down considerably as automotive cell production is scaled up.
Design News offers an interesting discussion about the current cost of the batteries.
Key factors in the batteries are energy density, recharge time, cost, durability and safety. It is explained that today’s best li-ion cells hold about 150 W-h / kg, whereas gasoline holds around 4,000 W-hr/kg, or 25 times the energy per unit weight. Batteries takes hours to charge, gas a few minutes to pour in.
The USABC has set a goal cost for batteries in 40 mile EV range cars to be $293 per kwh. The best expert estimates for current lithium-ion cells are between $500 and $1000/kwh, will the cells alone at $300/kwh, packaging, cooling, and controls making up the rest.
So if we consider the Volt has a 16 kWh battery pack, that’s $16,000. What Conti/A123 or LG Chem/Compact Power plans to charge GM for those packs, based on tens of thousands of units, is of course publicly unknown. Between the lines, I get the feeling more than GM would like. However, one certainly one can see the competitive value of having two teams pitted against each other.
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Doesn’t it mean that a 16KWh battery is BETWEEN $8000 and $16000? So that could make a price range of say $35K to $43K which is a huge difference and would significantly change who buys the vehicle.
Long time since I was first to reply
I knew the energy density of Li-Ion was much less than gasoline, but never realized by a factor of 25. Does anyone have any good references to white papers or other sources that discuss the true “Well-to-Wheel” efficiency comparisons?
Tesla used to have a couple, but I can’t seem to find them.
I know that, in the past 10 years, the energy density of batteries have doubled. If the next 10 years show similar progress (along with oil prices having a similar trend), the world of new automobiles may become 100% electric much sooner than later!
Wow first comment.
Competition normally helps price. Go competition.
16k$ for the battery. Lyle have you tried to price out of the reset of the Volt(through your own channels)? I know the answer will be a guess, but anything you can give us i am sure well will love.
Another price point:
Hymotion (now owned by A123) is charging $10K for their L5 (5KWh I believe) battery add-on for the Prius. That would likely include additional electronics like a charger since the Prius charging system is for Ni but the battery add-on is Li. It also including fitting, and dealer markup, and profit for Hymotion. So say 10% profit, 10% for fitting, 10% for additional electronics, 20% for R&D cost. That would make raw battery cost for 5KWh of $5K, or $1K per KWh.
However, A123 could easily absorb R&D costs to simply demonstrate their cells (not like they don’t have capital).
So the questions become how much does the cost come down for:
* GM ordering in a large scale,
* competition push the price down
* another year give them to cost optimize
* how much does different format of cells save.
Still guessing between $8K and $16K come 2010.
Initial cost will be higher than after a couple years. Hopefully they will be able to get the cost to a reasonable price before GM has to set the selling price.
Definitely will limit who buys as the price exceeds $35,000. Even $30,000 will see a decline over $25,000. It’s tough to expect to spend that kind of money on a car the size of the Volt. Assuming it will be somewhere around the size of the current Malibu. Plus being a 4 seater.
So, you better stop saving your pennies for the Volt down payment and start chunking dollars at the Volt savings account.
#3
Probably some of all the mention reasons.
There was some word going around EVS23 that A123 charges around 75 cents per watt hour, which would be about $750 per kWh. That works out to $12,000 for the Volt’s cells, but not for the rest of the pack.
That sounds like a reasonable OEM rate, given that if you buy the cells in low quantities for hobby use it’s more like $2,000+ per kWh.
Source for the $750/kWh number I quoted above:
http://www.advancedbatteryprogress.com/
I could see the battery cost as being a major obstacle in the Volts push to go mainstream.
I could see GM releasing their anticipated 10000 the first year and then putting the project on hold because the battery cost is too much and the demand is just not there at that price point. At $16,000 for a battery alone you could purchase a small fuel efficient car.
I have been looking at the Aptera sight all morning. This is classified as a high tec. three wheel motorcycle, two seater not four and it’s stated entry price to be $30K. I realize this is going to be a low volume production schedule as compared to the VOLT, however $30K is not cheap for this kind of vehicle. By comparison the VOLT being a full fledged auto @ $35 to $40K seems to be in line with what is presently going on in the industry. As most of you are saying, time may reduce this so the average Joe can afford one. Being over 70 years young, I hope I get to see it.
God Bless America.
Keep in mind, with this technology being relatively new and not as tested and true as a combustion engine, we may take an additional hit from insurance companies due to a new, unknown, unproven technology that could potentially be dangerous. I hate insurance.
Chris
Ignoring the supply and demand aspects of price since they influence margin and that is not what I am interested in. Does anyone have any information on HOW exactly the price of the Li-ion batteries are suppose to drop as production scales up? Where are the price decreases going to come from? Paying of fixed cost of machinery? Improvements to the manufacturing process? Raw material cost drop do to what? Anyone know?
#8,
Yes, but the difference is gas free driving. even a 35 mpg at $10/gal. is hard to stomach.
it is impossible to compare prices of batteries with the price of Gas when the Volt arrives. Both are very difficult to project.
Heck, AFS Trinity projects a li-on battery/ultracapacitor package that will be only $8.666, - - - in 2015! (http://www.afstrinity.com/xh-cost.htm)
Who knows what gas will cost even in 2010.
My understanding is that the materials are quite cheap (at least compared to the heavy metals in Nmh), so out the gate the high costs are probably due to manufacturing and R&D. So I’m betting that as they ramp up production and improve manufacturing, the costs will come down a lot.
Secondly, I am also interested in the wheel to wheel efficiency of electric vs gas. Clearly batteries stink compared to gas, but I know the ICE is much less efficient than an electric motor. Anyone?
But that afstrinity site made my guts churn, They have put the concept of the Volt on the road NOW, it’s not production, but they claim that they used “off the shelf” stuff.
-Good news = proof of concept
-Bad news = anybody can do it
-Good news = competition should help keep prices down
-Bad news = afstrinity didn’t even hint at today’s cost for the conversion, only a 2015 crystal ball shot. Bet it cost a bundle, but as much as a Tesla?
So if the Volt’s cost is directly related to the battery, I assume this means the debate over leasing the battery is over? The battery will be part of the purchase price of the car. They can’t seriously expect to blame the cost increases of the car on a battery if they intend to lease it right?
Why not give consumers a choice of range? If it’s really $4k for 10 miles of range, then 20 miles of range would cost less $8k less. Add some tax incentives into that and you are down into a Malibu/Accord/Camry price range, even before you add in the benefits of your savings on gas.
I believe that DOT survey found that (roughly) 50% of the population has about 20 miles or less for their commute.
Some, or perhaps all, of the decrease in savings of gas would be compensated for by an increase in the volume of cars getting that saving.
Mitsibushi can put a MIEV on the road for $25000US and that includes a 16KwHr Lithium battery
Now what is the retail markup and the vehicle component?
Anybody? (5 marks)
This is Good News? Why, Because, The price of battery will come down dramatically / exponentially with time. Just think about your cell phone battery 5 years ago, same thing is going to happen to car battery’s too.
I always wondered If we could come up with a Moors law for the battery technology, what will it be. How long is it going to take for the battery capacity to double for the same size / money / volume of battery space.
#15 Nick (and GM)
I’d buy a 20-mile AER Volt. I’ll bet a 20-mile AER Volt could even seat 5 people.
#14
I agree AFS Trinity did not even hint at cost. It sounded good, though. Sounded a lot like the Volt concept.
Clark #13
There seems to be a lot of comparison on this site of the energy of 400lbs of gasoline vs 400 lbs of Li-ion Volt battery and it’s no surprise that 400lbs of gas would take you 25 times as far. But…that’s somewhat irrelevant, not only because the gas is non renewable, but because what’s important is how much it costs to go 40 miles. It costs quite a bit less on electricity not to mention the emissions and security of using power from the grid.
My daily commute is about 18 miles round trip, 20 at the most if I go a different route. An AEV would suite me fine, but I still like the extended range of the Volt concept. It is hard to justify a commuter car unless you can cost justify over many years.
Bruce G @ 16,
I agree, the MiEV is looking darn cheap being a full-blown EV with li-ion batteries and 100 + mile range and fully freeway capable and seat at least 4.
Although it’s shaped like an egg, $25,000 is dirt cheap. If they bring it to the North American market first, it will be the gold standard to beat.
I find two elements of this post deeply disturbing:
1) The table at the top lists energy in kW. This is a widespread phenomenon in the discourse surrounding alternative energy. My uncle found that one of the PV dealers that quoted him on a rooftop system didn’t understand the difference between energy and power.
2) Batteries don’t take hours to charge. All of the modern high-power lithium-ion chemistries can charge in less than 10 minutes (some in as little as 72 seconds). Power outlets take hours to charge batteries. Charge time is limited by the capacity of the electric circuit delivering the power. This can be resolved with battery-to-battery chargers.
The speculation on Mitsu’s i-Miev battery pack is that it costs in the neighbourhood of 6K for the raw components for the 16kW base model (a 20kW expected in 12-18 months).
Seeing how A123 puts out the 5kW direct to consumer and installed with warranty now at $9,995. The 6K seems to be inline.
Remember when the Volt first came out, and the estimate was 30K for the car? Back then the guesstimate on the pack was 8K…thats how we explained away the bump over buying a Cobalt.
Aside on i-Miev:
NA price is expected at $25,000 (provided Mitsu wants to, they’d have to increase the width, because Americans like to be safe), but In it’s primary market Japan, 2.5 million yen is the sticker price….thats actually $22.900.
No way GM can justify battery cost as bumping the sticker price…it has only gotten cheaper in the last 2 years.
“Secondly, I am also interested in the wheel to wheel efficiency of electric vs gas. Clearly batteries stink compared to gas, but I know the ICE is much less efficient than an electric motor. Anyone?”
The gas engine is probably 15-25% efficient in most parts of its operation. Big diesels are around 40%. Atkinson cycle might reach 35-37% at the very best. Also factor in the energy costs of drilling the oil from the bottom of the ocean, refining it, and delivering it to the end user.
Electric motors probably top out at 95% efficient. Efficiency of lithium battery charging/recharging depends on charge/discharge rate but should be over 90%. Efficiency of getting the initial electricity generated depends on the source. Coal would be comparable to diesel efficiency or higher. Solar cell efficiency I don’t think gets more than 20%, but then again it’s free energy.
Thank you Statik,
I suspect A123 are charging a premium for their technology.
I looked at the 36V DeWalt tools yesterday and a reviewer said they were overpriced for what they were. Sounds familiar.
Maybe the IPO is the soulution to a difficult round of negotiations between GM and A123 about profit margins?
Mitsubishi’s MiEV batteries are made by GS Yuasa, who claim a current price of $2,500 per watt hour.
Although a 20 mile electric-range Volt (for $8K less) sounds like a great idea, that design change will also increase the cycle-count on the batteries.
For example, if you drive 20 miles each day (recharging each night), that’s 0.25 cycles on the 40-mile-Volt, but it’s 0.5 cycles on a 20-mile-Volt. Double the cycles. So in the worst case, the battery system of a 20-mile-Volt could fail twice as fast, probably creating battery life concerns.
I think that’s one of the reasons GM is focussed on 40 miles of range, even though to some that range seems excessive/extravagant.
AES, are you sure that is not / kWh? And if accurate per kWh then they are more expensive than A123 @ <$2K/kWh. There is no way they can sell a car for under 30K with any range at those rates unless they are runnign on a lot tighter margins on the battery= less life span, etc..
bruce g #26
“Maybe the IPO is the soulution to a difficult round of negotiations between GM and A123 about profit margins?”
*** *** ****
Possibly that and increasing productive capacity, although it’s a little late for that eying the 2010 window. However, expanding current facilities could be in the works.
First, I want to clarify that it’s a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore’s Law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when it actually only concerns semiconductor circuits. Batteries are VERY different creatures!
I toured a huge GE commercial battery factory years ago where cylindrical AAA thru D-size rechargeable NiCd batteries were made in enormous quantities. Individual cells were “spun”, with the active plate materials & the separator material fed at high speed from separate large spools. It took only a few seconds to “spin” each cell, automatically & with no human involvement.
It’s easy to visualize Li-Ion prismatic cells being “wound” or “spun” at high speeds in a clean-room environment, after very high speed scanners have assured the thin active plate material and separators are free of even microscopic imperfections. But this is where the challenges lie —can microscopic material imperfections be detected/avoided at sufficiently high cell fabrication speeds to make highly-automated cell production both fast & reliable? I believe they can and that (Moore’s Law aside) GM’s suppliers can automate Li-Ion cell/battery manufacturing so effectively that battery costs in large quantities will be MUCH less dependant on labor costs (and more dependant on raw material costs) than the hand-made batteries they’ve so far supplied to GM as prototypes.
One reason I believe this is that China’s BYD, one of the world’s largest Li-Ion cell makers says they can make the 20Kwh battery in their F6DM plug-in hybrid car announced earlier this year cheap enough to allow them to sell the F6DM in China this fall for only approximately a $6,000 premium over their non-hybrid F6 car this fall.* That $6k also includes the F6DM’s electric motor & control electronics. So if GM’s supplier’s can’t make a 16KWh battery for LESS than about $4K, they’ll both ultimately loose the automotive battery business to BYD! GM has to be aware of this and should be “forward-pricing” the Volt’s OEM battery cost at no more than $4K, even for 2010!
*http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/01/byd-auto-introd.html#comments
What saddens me is this car is going to have to be priced around 30k for people to spend. Especially being in a recession.
I know they are going to stick it to us Canadians too as they normally do.
For the first time in years I am rooting for GM.
As much as I recognize Toyota quality, honda reliabilty - I want to be able to proudly say ” Yeah I own a GM. Oh - you drive an import? Sorry to hear that..”
This car is the answer to so many problems we are facing today.
Keeping my fingers crossed that the potential market for this car isn’t going to be priced out.
Grizzly,
Yes, that 2010 window was why I said the omens were not fortuitous at the start of yesterdays IPO discussion.
A123 may have better technology than LG, Yuasa, etc, but I just want Volts on the road a reasonable price, preferably soon and in large quantities.
If CPI can do it, let them, I say…
Re: my post #31 above, here’s another try at the reference…..
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/01/byd-auto-introd.html
Thank you Nasaman,
BYD sure have their manufacturing costs under control.
I guess we will now restart the Lithium Iron debate and if they have stolen A123’s technology.
Even if they have, this gives us an insight into the manufacturing costs ex China.
nasaman #34
Thanks for the link. I agree about automating the production of the cells but I always thought the more expensive part was constructing the pack, which probably will always be by hand.
bruce g 35
That’s the same thing I thought when I saw the reference to “iron phosphate”. Does anyone know if BYD was one of A123’s manufacturing partners? Regardless, if they have stolen it they won’t be able to sell that car in N.A.
Did anyone happen to note the AP story on the Yahoo news page about US car sales April 2008 vs April 2007?
Nissan +7%
Toyota +3%
Honda +6% (estimated - not yet final)
GM overall -16%
GM trucks and SUVs -27%
Prius +54%
Yaris +46%
Just posted:
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN0145819820080501
Take Care
Arch
Edmunds had a little different version for April 2008, Noel….
Change from April 2007 (1st number, Adjusted for more selling days)
Change from April 2007 (2nd number, Unadjusted for more selling days)
Chrysler
-23.2%
-16.8%
Ford
-13.9%
-6.7%
GM
-15.6%
-8.5%
Honda
0.9%
9.3%
Nissan
14.6%
24.1%
Toyota
-5.7%
2.1%
Industry Total
-9.7%
-2.2%
But Noel, we ALL have to be impressed with the AP data you show, that has the Prius up 54%!!! (Hope GM notices this too!)
Yes,
I saw that stuff on Yahoo.
The Malibu is doing very well.
I’m sure if the battery price needs hi volume to bring the price down…
…GM will order enough units of all components to do so….
stock them in a facility for the battery firm…..
Even if the battery firm runs out of cash to order enough, GM can stand in and put up the cash to make it happen.
Be creative people.
Wow - only $6K more for the e-rev version of the BYD F6. If a young company can bring something that robust to the market this fast at such a great price, what is taking GM so long? I guess big machines don’t change direction as quickly.
On paper the BYD vehicle sounds pretty amazing!
Have to comment since nobody else has about the energy density of gas versus Li. Yes, gas has a lot more KWh/kg than Li batteries but neither alone do anything. If you factor in the weight of gas and entire drive train, the specific wieght comes a lot closer to that of a battery and EV drive train.
# 2 Eric
Here is all you want to know about EV efficiency etc.
It expands greatly on Martins Tesla report for CARB. The EV figures are practically the same though.
http://assets.panda.org/downloads/plugged_in_full_report___final.pdf
PS: 200 page report with not to difficult equations.
For those of you who requested a well to wheels comparison here’s a link to some Argonne NL numbers http://www.veva.bc.ca/wtw/index.htm
There are a number of charts. Make sure you are looking at the right one.
very interesting
#45 Koz
Gas is much better & more energy dense than batteries that’s why its so hard to replace.
If only it wasn’t running out, and stuffing the environment, and came from unstable countries, Global Warming etc.
Think I’ll put the restraints back on & lie down again.
#47 Neil
Good charts
From the bottom one it can be seen, its better to burn the fuel in a power plant and run the car on batteries.
It also shows H2 as being the worst possible replacement for gas/petrol.
#14 Clark
“Secondly, I am also interested in the wheel to wheel efficiency of electric vs gas. Clearly batteries stink compared to gas, but I know the ICE is much less efficient than an electric motor. Anyone?”
Try this link:
http://www.epri-reports.org/
Download the summary and check page 7 for a comparison of GHG emissions for conventional, hybrid, and plug-in vehicles.
As far as energy usage, there may be some analysis in the full report, however, the important fact is that the energy cost for electric miles driven is less than gasoline power (5 miles/kWh for the Volt, at $0.10 per kWh equals $0.02 per mile, versus 50 mpg at $3.50 per gallon equals $0.07 per mile).
Electric power allows for energy diversification, as electricity comes from nuclear, hydro, natural gas, coal, renewables, and other sources.
#49 NZDavid
Hydrogen only looks bad if you assume that it’s made using electrolysis. If that’s the assumption, then it’s not efficient because you lose half of the energy in the conversion. However, the long-term plans for the hydrogen economy typically assume that nuclear hydrogen is made using the sulfur-iodine cycle. That cycle is up to 70% efficient - more efficient than nuclear electricity generation and comparable to battery storage in efficiency.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur-iodine_cycle
$16,000 for the just the battery? Even at $5.00 a gallon we will still buy a new Carolla and be ahead.
Sure gas has 25 times the energy per unit weight as a li-ion battery, but when you are done using the energy from the battery, you still have the battery which can be recharged.
When you are done using the energy from the gas, all you have left is pollution.
The 25X difference just requires different solutions, it isn’t as big a deal as it might first seem.
#48 NZDavid
My point did not dispute the energy density superiority of gas vs Li batteries, rather this is where it started. When you consider a 6-cylinder ICE, transmission, gas, exhaust, etc you have about 700-900 lbs total. The Tesla ESS with drivetrain is about 1100lbs (and this is with 2 generations old cells). Using the most current generation of cells will reduce that weight to 800-900lbs for the same 225 mile range. There is still an edge to gas powered ICE drive train, but nothing close to 25 to 1. The energy density issue is mostly resolved. The main issues left for BEV are price and recharge.
#32 neutron flux- sorry, I meant to say $2,500 per kWh, not watt-hour. Busy day at work and all.
Quick calculation:
Assumptions:
Comparing to car that gets 25 miles per gallon.
Gas costs $4.00 for the next 10 years.. Yeah right.
Volt battery pack lasts 150,000 miles. Might last a lot longer.
cost of battery pack: $16,000.
cost of electricity: $1.25 per 40 mile charge.
Results:
Car: To go 150,000 miles takes 4,000 gal or $24,000
Volt: same distance - $16,000 + 4,688 (juice) = $20, 687
Conclusion:
I don’t see $16,000 for the battery pack as being outrageous. Do you?
#57
The math in itself never holds about (I don’t think that can be your only reason to buy a Volt).
Flaws in your theory:
1.) It’s impossible to get to 150K miles in 10 years all electric.
3650 days x 40 = 146,000 miles. You’d need to drive exactly 40 miles everyday, and do a full ‘day’ recharge for another 400 days…and all the while hope your battery is working at full capacity and that it really gets 40 miles to start with…otherwise, you are using gas. Realistically over 150K miles, you could hope for 100 of those electric.
2.) Volt is a Cobalt…basically. Same footprint, interior room, performance, sure the Volt is gussied up a bit…but it’s the same. So even if it costs you 24K on gas to get to 150 miles, total outlay is still around 36K…whereas the Volt looks to be 40-48K, plus 5K for energy and probably another 5K in gas still. 36K versus 50-60K.
3.) How does the Volt stack up if you actually drive alot of miles and want to get the value out of the efficiency? It doesn’t. My business has a Honda Civic hatchback (we use it for small deliveries and pickups). It has 300,000m after 6 years, I’ve spend about $1,500 in repairs and service…it will probably get me another 100ish miles cheaply. At 150,000 miles the Volt needs a intrusive and expensive battery change (probably $6,000-$8,000). How does the math stack up if you actually want to get some use out of it’s efficiency? High MPG cars are the ones that are doing the high mileage driving. Check your odometer on your neighbours 10 year old Porsche, probably reads 12,000, lol.
one thought about energy density of rechargeable batteries vs gasoline. you can only use a molecule of gasoline once. it combusts, and then it’s done. Li-Ion rechargeable batteries will last for 10 years or so. yes, you need to put more energy into the batteries and they will always store it at a lower density than gasoline, but the energy is cheaper and cleaner than gasoline, and potentially could be delivered by an off-grid solar or wind generator. so while their one-time energy density is vastly different, as for the energy that each delivers over its life-span… batteries is a clear win.
I went to the Toyota dealer yesterday to inquire about the Prius. The plug in add on has me interested. If I make a down payment, they will put me on a list for delivery when vehicles become available. I should give 3 color choices and specify what level of equipment (2 to 6 with the higher, more expensive, levels having a greater chance of delivery) I wanted.
I don’t think sales figures represent the popularity of this vehicle.
If it had a plug, I’d have put myself on the list.
In a later news post on this site, it was leaked that the possible car only cost may be 20K. If that is true then if the battery comes in at 8K to 16K then the price would be in a range of 28K to 36K. This is well within the targets that keep coming up. Hopefully this is true.
#58 Statik
If you had a 80 mile commute and recharged at work you could do it in 7.5 years, unlikely I know, but possible.
I have had cars in the past I have kept longer than 10 years.
I think gas should be cost adjusted for each year as well, @ say 40% per year. (last year oil went up 60%, the year before 50%.)
ie. 2008=3.50. 2009=4.90, 2010=6.86, 2011=9.60 etc.
Well that little excercise depressed me. lol.
#58 Statik wrote:
“Flaws in your theory:
1.) It’s impossible to get to 150K miles in 10 years all electric.
3650 days x 40 = 146,000 miles. You’d need to drive exactly 40 miles everyday, and do a full ‘day’ recharge for another 400 days…and all the while hope your battery is working at full capacity and that it really gets 40 miles to start with…otherwise, you are using gas. Realistically over 150K miles, you could hope for 100 of those electric.”
Poster above already corrected your, um, flaw.
“2.) Volt is a Cobalt…basically. Same footprint, interior room, performance, sure the Volt is gussied up a bit…but it’s the same. So even if it costs you 24K on gas to get to 150 miles, total outlay is still around 36K…whereas the Volt looks to be 40-48K, plus 5K for energy and probably another 5K in gas still. 36K versus 50-60K.”
I was just showing the value of the energy system. Think battery + electric motor vs. gas tank + ICE. It doesn’t matter if you wrapped those systems with a wooden box covered in dog crap. What would that matter?
“3.) How does the Volt stack up if you actually drive a lot of miles and want to get the value out of the efficiency? It doesn’t. My business has a Honda Civic hatchback (we use it for small deliveries and pickups). It has 300,000m after 6 years, I’ve spend about $1,500 in repairs and service…it will probably get me another 100ish miles cheaply. At 150,000 miles the Volt needs a intrusive and expensive battery change (probably $6,000-$8,000). How does the math stack up if you actually want to get some use out of it’s efficiency? High MPG cars are the ones that are doing the high mileage driving. Check your odometer on your neighbours 10 year old Porsche, probably reads 12,000, lol.”
I hope I already proved that as an energy system the battery has value when you consider the assumptions I listed. However, if you want to make your point by talking about your used crappy Civic then I’ll ask you about why you’re not riding a bike and saving even more money. See how the whole topic just explodes? That’s why I listed those assumptions with my simple analysis.
That said, if you want to take a trip in the future let me also ride along… We hit peak oil in 2012 and the price of gas goes past $15 a gallon, some of it is in the form of taxes because the government wants everyone to get off of gas and as we have just witnessed this past month you only need to rise the price of gas to accomplish that goal. In the year 2014 the 10X lithium-ion battery is released and a 1/10 th size Volt replacement battery is put on the market for a $500. Using a fossil fuel burning vehicle in 2016 required special permission from the government along with a $10,000 dirty bird tax. There you go. You are sitting in your rocking chair next to your Civic (that you cannot afford to drive anymore) while I drive past in my Volt… “What’s up Static? Looking kind of static these days.”, I yell out with a friendly grin.
Let’s look at the battery pack for the Tesla Roadster. This pack stores 56 KWh and costs Tesla around $23K.
Now let’s do some math. If the Tesla pack is 56 KWh and costs $23K, then a 16 KWh pack should cost around $6500.
Note that Tesla’s sales volumes are very low, so their pack doesn’t have the type of volume discounts that GM will get.
With this in mind, it’s possible that GM’s public concern over battery pricing is just a game to get more money from the Federal government in the form of consumer tax credits for electric vehicles.
Just send me my Volt (BEV) as soon as you can get it made for me. I’ll have my solar panels by then and an electric boat and electric motorcycle as well. I won’t care what the price of gas is by then I won’t be using any.
Take Care,
TED
I’ve got to agree the Volt battery prices are higher than they should be for a planned high volume distribution.
It is great to see a plug in hybrid like the Volt going to market, but I hope Toyota or Honda comes out with one. Chevy’s current high sides and small window styling look like something from a batman cartoon.
#34 Nasaman: “That $6k also includes the F6DM’s electric motor & control electronics.”
Those components are somewhat offset offset by reduced ICE and transmission cost. Also note that BYD’s design seems to require less powerful motors and power electronics than the elegant but expensive E-Flex. I estimate BYD’s approach can give the same performance at about half the motor + power electronics cost.
#39 Grizzly
A123 used/uses China BAK for manufacturing, I don’t know of any relationship with BYD. As for patents, the basic LiFePO4 chemistry was developed by Dr. John Goodenough at University of Texas. His group is currently suing A123 for infringement. Phostech licenses Goodenough’s patents (plus others) and sells LiFePO4 powder to battery manufacturers. BYD may have their own license or may buy from a licensee. If not under license BYD is IMHO more likely to have issues with Goodenough’s group than with A123.
A123’s cells are based on work done by Yet-Ming Chiang at MIT. Their patents relate to a specific LiFePO4 formulation which produces high power density. They don’t have patent control over basic LiFePO4 chemsitry. I don’t know of anyone infringing on A123’s specific formulation at this point, though patents are always a murky area.
#43 bruce g:
Yeah, thank God for the Malibu. I hope that they have a few more such tricks up their sleeve to keep the boat afloat until the E-Flex cavalry rides to the rescue.
Isn’t there supposed to be a “dual-mode”, or whatever it’s called, hybrid Malibu pretty soon? Does anyone know when? The mileage of the Malibu, including the belt hybrid version, is not good enough to entice me to buy one.
If Chevy would offer that, or some sort of a tweaked Cobalt, or maybe even an Aveo that would get into the 30+ combined mpg range, we might buy one to bridge over to the Volt. If not, we’ll just sweat it out, I guess.
#63 Texas:
I think that 2012 for the oil peak is pretty optimistic, actually. Again, I have been reading Kevin Phillips’ latest horror story, “Bad Money”.
He cites all sorts of studies of “peak oil”, done by all sorts of eminent experts and blue ribbon commissions. Estimates range from it’s already past, to now, to 2012, and a bit longer. I think that you are being generous.
#64 Dave G:
Anything GM can do to get more tax credits for electric cars suits the h**l out of me.
If you have a need for a “bridge” car now and can still use it after buying a new Volt in 2012 or later, you should go for it. Primary consideration should be your need over the next 2 to 3 years. After that it is all just a wild guess.
We are spending too much time worrying about the cost of the batteries. It is the cost of the whole car that concerns me. I won’t be buying one without the batteries. So, let’s keep the pressure on GM to give us the Volt at the lowest possible price.
I have seen different opinions about what the 2009 Prius is going to look like. We know that it is going to have a bigger engine, be one inch wider and one inch shorter, but not what it looks like. Some on-line articles say it will look like the Prius Hybrid X concept car. Others say it will be a slightly modified version of the 2008 Prius.
Does anyone have more info that this? I will buy a “bridge” car to get me to 2012 or later when a Volt is available in my area. I want to get a good car that is from a major manufacturer with a good record. This ca will be passed on to my wife after the Volt arrives.
Excuse my typing. This keyboard and my fingers don’t always communicate properly.
Sorry…
N Riley:
Yeah, I don’t have any confidence that the Volt suppy will get large enough to actually get one until late 2011 or 2012. Especially since I have no interest in the “dealer markups”. Although, if there is enough of a tax credit…………………..
We are committed to buying GM vehicles, most preferably Chevrolet, so we are pretty limited in our options. They have nothing that I would buy at the moment. Our 1995 Impala is in great shape, and will run until 2012 without a doubt. I’m just getting a huge guilty conscience about the 15 mpg.
Please don’t apologize for your typing. it’s way better than mine!
Why ar they looking at batteries at all?
Super or Ultra capacitors using nanotube technology could be brought forward a lot quicker with cash from GM
http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:MIT_Nanotube_Super_Capacitor
#63 Tex
Your retort is full of conjecture and hyperbole. Valid retorts are always welcome and I can conceed mistakes from time to time, but your post is well…it speaks for itself.
$15 gas in 2014. Quite a leap
1/10th size batteries for $500. Great.
2016 - $10,000 fee for fossil burning vehiles. Wow.
Nice touch mispelling my name. Classy.
Noel Park
I would buy Chevrolet over almost any other if they could offer me what I want. In the mid 90’s I had to start buying Honda and Nissan because of quality. I know GM’s quality is much better now, but their mileage is terrible, just like Ford and Chrysler.
I would settle for a little less quality as long as I got great mileage and a car that would stand up to 250,000 miles. The quality that I don’t mind giving up is looks on the outside and the interior.
#74 N Riley:
I agree. The mileage of the Aveo and the Cobalt are really weak next to their competition. On the other hand, our Impala looks pretty darn good after almost 13 years and 120K miles, and it runs as well as it did new. The fit and finish and the paint quality may not be quite up to Japanese standards, but the SS has a ton of street cred in Socal, so that makes up for a lot. It will be tough to part with it, but 15 mpg is just not going to get it much longer.
My 2000 S-10 just turned over 200K. It has had 1 clutch, 3 sets of tires, 3 sets of brake pads and 1 water pump. Not too bad, to give Chevy its due. It gets 25 mpg, every single tank, about half highway and half city. Not great, but not too bad.
So it’s not hopeless by any means but you are dead right on the mileage. It has to get a lot better, or game over.
It seems to me that if batteries are in short supply and both pack makers meet the specs then GM should use batteries from both suppliers to increase supply and reduce the risk of one pack having problems. If one turned out to have problems down the road they could switch over to the other.
Mike R.
Huntsville, AL.
Sheesh, people the payback will occur within about 5 years of purchase if you spend $200/mo in gas.
After that you’ll have the battery paid off and be spending $20/mo on traveling.
If you use if for just 5 years it’s still an investment that puts $ in your pocket. Do the math.
Today Green Car Congress posted this info about A123 that indicates the production price of a 40 mile battery is $3,400 at 100,000 units per year: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/usabc-finalizes.html.
–Tom
#80 Tom K - $3400 is USABC goal which A123 may or may not be able to meet.
$30~$40,000? Not a problem in California. Sorry to the rest of you folks in the “fly overs” but that won’t impeed sales out here. $40k and not buy gas??? no sweat- sign me up!
While the battery issues are important, it is useful to consider that a whole new powertrain concept (at least for everyday domestic cars) is being used in the Volt. I am interested in seeing how the exclusively electric motor concept works out. I would consider a rated 20 mile range Volt at a significantly lower price to be something worth looking at, although the battery longevity issues would need to be considered. The ability to take long trips made possible by the on-board gasoline powered generator is what makes the Volt something that may be viable.
Really, it is more than a plug-in hybrid, since there is not direct power generation from gasoline. It really is an electric vehicle with supplemental power generation. That makes this idea even more significant, although I wonder if Toyota is considering converting the Prius to the same format by replacing the gasoline engine with a generator like the Volt.
Sorry, I am a little new to this. but I have a question you could possibly help me with. The article says that “gasoline holds around 4,000 W-hr/kg, or 25 times the energy per unit weight.” does this include the weight of the engine needed power the car? Doesn’t the electric car close the gap up in total weight of the automobile?