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J.D. Power: 300,000 Chevy Volts Will be Sold by 2014

April 30th, 2008 | Posted in: General

There is an interesting and thoughtful article about A123, and how it went from a handshake between an entrepreneur and a scientist into a company with 1000 employees and a chance at being GMs Volt battery supplier.

Buried in that story is a striking statement that I have never heard or seen.

We debate and wonder how many Volts GM will churn out in its initial production run, with estimates putting it anywhere from 10,000 to 100,000 cars.

The well known global marketing firm JD Power and Associates has apparently estmated that GM should be able to sell 300,000 Volts by 2014.

Can anyone say 300,001?

Source (Technology Review )

Thanks to Glen M. for the tip.

Posted by: Lyle

55 Responses to “J.D. Power: 300,000 Chevy Volts Will be Sold by 2014”

Rouser Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 2:47 pm

How about some links to the cited articles? Thanks!

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MarkFLL Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 2:49 pm

If this is true, it’s great news!

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2Snowboard Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:01 pm

Does anyone know how the new CAFE standards will apply to the Volt?

Does it seem that JD Powers is assuming the Volt will be easier for GM’s average to comply with those standards when they go in effect then other midsized cars?

I frankly don’t understand how the new CAFE standards work with all the exceptions.

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Eric Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:13 pm

Would love to see 300,000 volts in 3 years of existence!

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calgaryvolt Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:14 pm

I think it’s ludicrous to be making predictions for the year 2014 about a product that still doesn’t exist. I really think useless headlines like this need to be stopped and useless predictions of the future.

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Grizzly Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:28 pm

The article dated “may/june” 2008 says that GM expects to sell the Volt for $30,000 to $35,000 to achieve those sales numbers. I wonder what the source was for that figure?

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ThombDbhomb Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:29 pm

#1 Rouser

There is a link listed under “Source” in Lyle’s post.

The article says,

“GM plans to sell the vehicles for around $30,000 to $35,000; the company thinks it can sell hundreds of thousands at that price in the first several years, and J. D. Power and Associates estimates that GM will sell nearly 300,000 by 2014″

300,000 Volts by 2014 is an average production rate of 75k Volts per year. I’ll bet GM can produce them at that rate.

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NorthernPiker Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:30 pm

What price did they assume for their analysis?

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ThombDbhomb Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:32 pm

“GM plans to sell the [Volt] for around …$30,000 to $35,000…at that price in the first several years.”

If that is accurate, don’t expect the price to go down much in the first several years.

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NorthernPiker Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:32 pm

Sorry,. Question on pricing answered. ($30K to $35K)

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Brian M Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:36 pm

300,000 total by 2014 or 300,000 per year by 2014? North America or worldwide?

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Jason M. Hendler Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:40 pm

That seems like a very easy number to hit, considering everyone has stopped buying trucks. Assuming there are no production delays (strikes), GM should have an easy time beating this number.

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kent beuchert Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:56 pm

Trying to estimate the sales of a never before vehicle 6 years in advance is a foolish effort in anybody’s book. Some folks at J.D. Power apparently don’t have enough to keep them busy.

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Glen M Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 3:56 pm

I think that 300,000 is based on production limitation not demand. I for one think that thy could sell at least double that amount. More still with different versions, like a SUV.

And Lyle, Glen is spelled the correct way with one ‘n’

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noel park Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 4:06 pm

They had better.

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Jim I Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 4:09 pm

The Lordstown, Ohio Cobalt assembly plant can push out 20,000 Cobalt vehicles PER MONTH, if they want to. There were doing that for years with the Chevy Cavalier and the Pontiac Sunbird…

I should think that GM should be able to build and sell more than 100,000 cars per year. But I guess that will depend upon the pricing and trim levels available. But we are not going to get that info from Mr. Lutz until October 2010!!!

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Grizzly Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 4:15 pm

Jim #16

There may be a battery supply issue as well.

I can’t say that a $30-$35K price is all that bad if dealers can be kept from gouging. Sure beats $48K+.

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ThombDbhomb Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 4:28 pm

I still think $30K-$35K is pushing the “affordable” limit. “…at that price in the first several years” really, really discouraged me. I’ll hold out until the Volt 1.0 price is revealed, then consider my options. At that time, there will probably be a decent BEV or a plug-in hybrid for comfortably under $30K (in today’s dollars). A 20 to 30-mile AER with at least 4 seats would suit me fine.

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NorthernPiker Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 4:30 pm

13 kent beuchert

Well, J. D. Power’s persists in making long term sales forecasts. Its record for hybrid forecasts has not been that credible. In Feb 2005, J. D. Power forecast that annual sales of US hybrids would plateau at 535,000. Here’s some quotes from this forecast:

J. D. Power forecast “that the market share of hybrid vehicles in the US will top out at 3% by 2010”, or about 535,000 vehicles, due “primarily to the price premium of $3,000 to $4,000 that consumers must pay for a hybrid vehicle, compared with a comparable non-hybrid option, and to competing technologies such as more fuel-efficient gasoline and diesel options that will be available after 2006.”

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005/02/jd_power_hybrid.html

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PJ Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 4:33 pm

This appears to be a guestimate and as such is like estimating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

The more important question is not if GM can produce the vehicle but can LG produce that many battery packs?

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Rashiid Amul Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 4:49 pm

ThombDbhomb #18 says, “I still think $30K-$35K is pushing the “affordable” limit. “…at that price in the first several years” really, really discouraged me.”

Yup. Me too. I will support the masses and not buy it until the price comes down. $30K is pushing it when the current Prius is way under that for the base model. Admittedly I have only seen the Prius from a distance and have no clue what it looks like on the inside or how it rides. But if the masses can’t afford this car, then I won’t buy it either, even though I can.

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Statik Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 4:52 pm

It feels like someone is pulling old information while writing a piece primarily on A123.

It doesn’t mention any new developments on the GM front or on the A123 Hymotion front, which is kind of strange.

Clearly the price is north of 40K…that 30-35K guesstimate they come up with kind of co-encides with the timeline when GM was still saying it was hoping to put out 60K Volts a year (down from 100K).

2010,2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 =5 years X 60K = 300,000 copies.

I think the article is living in the past. Actually it is for sure, seeing how we already know we are only going to see a precious few (if any) trickle off the Hamm. line in late 2010…and first year production has already been limited to 10K.

I’d be delighted to be wrong however.

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VancouverJon Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 4:52 pm

Did people notice in that article that A123 estimates that their batteries should last for over 15 years of daily charging? I think that’s a bigger story than the bogus 300,000 Volts on the road figure. If the batteries can perform even close to that well, that will be huge.

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Ted in Fort Myers Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 4:57 pm

Can’t believe I’m only #21. They will sell as many as they can produce and more. With gas at $6.00 plus no company will sell gas hogs any more. I’m still waiting to hear from GM about my Florida mule. 239 410-8826. Lyle this is good news. TED

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Van Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 5:01 pm

Let’s see, 10,000 in 2011, 60,000 in 2012, 100,000 in 2013, and 130,000 in 2014. Doesn’t seem like anyone is pushing very hard to me.

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Jim Rowland Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 5:02 pm

300,000 is a guess, it is a somewhat educated guess. If oil continues to soar higher and higher then this is a modest number and could be much greater, even with other manufactures producing a variety of hybrids and ev’s there will be a vast market for all manufactures. People love to have different choices to express indivduality. My wife needs to know what color choices we have, so I may need two! Its getting closer.

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noel park Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 5:23 pm

#18 ThombDbhomb:

#21 Rashiid Amul:

Repeat after me, TAX CREDITS, TAX CREDITS, TAX CREDITS…….

Hillary Clinton is quoted today on the Yahoo news page as saying that we are going to break the market power of OPEC, et al, by whatever means necessary.

There is no more cost effective way to do it than VOLT TAX CREDITS, IMHO.

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omegaman66 Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 5:35 pm

Typical…. not blaming Lyle just stating what always happens. Article comes out and it leaves more questions than it answered.

Is the 300,000 volt cars limited by battery supply, gm restrictions, demand restrictions. Does the 300K mean just Volts! Other cars in their line up should be converted to the new volt style drive train, if those numbers are included could the 300K figure be actually much higher? Does the 300K mean just volts and does that mean no other makes or models get the E-REV designation till sometime after 2014?

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crows Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 6:12 pm

300,000 cars by 2014 is a joke!

I want at least 500,000 cars a year right now!

I’m growing tired of this waiting game GM is playing!

Maybe a full blown recession brought on by over priced oil will wake these clowns up….

Well maybe not the oil embargo of 1973-74 didn’t!

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GM Volt Fan Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 6:27 pm

Good article by MIT’s Technology Review about A123. These new lithium ion battery companies like A123 and LGChem have a darn good chance of becoming the Intel and AMD of the automobile business.

Since electricity will become the primary fuel for cars … GM, Toyota, Ford, Mercedes and the rest of the auto companies are going to start looking more like computer companies … OEMs like Dell, Hewlett Packard, Apple, IBM, etc. They better learn to innovate and get products out the door at a quicker pace. That’s how it is in the computer business. Lots of races going on.

The automotive battery business could get VERY large … maybe tens or hundreds of billions in revenues. That scientist at MIT (Yet-Ming Chiang) is helping to get a HUGE industry up and running. He might someday be considered one of the “founding fathers” of the electric car business if A123 batteries do well … like Gordon Moore is with Intel.

I’m hoping a bunch of geniuses emerge in the automotive battery business in the next 10 years. The world NEEDS them to help us kick our addiction to oil and keep us from screwing up the environment. Maybe that one Stanford professor Dr. Cui will be one of them with his silicon nanowire lithium ion battery. These guys could be like the new Bill Gates and Steve Jobs of the next 40 years.

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nasaman Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 6:34 pm

It’s always reassuring if I can find an original reference —unfortunately, there are none to be found (yet) at the J. D. Power site itself. (Perhaps the study the May/June MIT Technology Review cites is too recent.) However, I did find one other recent article that seems to corroborate MIT’s 300,000 Volt forecast….

“…..latest J.D. Power hybrid study includes significant sales numbers for the Chevrolet Volt. According to John Teus, spokesperson at J.D. Power, the Volt is forecast to sell 11,059 units in 2010. Teus told HybridCars.com, “Our sales forecasts take the Volt from 58,700 units in 2011 to 70,000 in 2014.” *

Doing the arithmetic…..

2010 – 11,059
2011 – 58,700
2012 – 63,000 (assumed)
2013 – 68,000 (assumed)
2014 – 70,000

….or a total of 270,759, which is well on the way to 300,000. So the referenced MIT article is now somewhat more credible, as I see it.

* From “J.D. Power Sees Three-Fold Growth for Hybrids by 2015″ – 4/8/08 –
http://www.hybridcars.com/news/jd-power-forecasts-three-fold-growth-hybrids-and-diesels.html

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Rashiid Amul Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 6:40 pm

#27 Noel. Trust me, not only can I say TAX CREDIT, but I can spell it too. I just hope you are right. I can afford a new Volt, but it is very important to me that the general population of our country can as well.

If Hillary Clinton and said that and can do it, then I will support it.
But I sincerely doubt that a mere President can do anything against the completely useless Congress that we have. Tax credits are important, especially since it is my own money they are giving back to me.

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Ghost Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 7:21 pm

I believe another poster summed this up perfectly…

The product isn’t even out yet.
Let’s not start predicting the future. I am just as excited as my fellow Volt fans here, but let’s not get ahead of the game.

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noel park Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 7:26 pm

#23 Rashiid Amul:

If the whole Volt nation starts to bombard their Senators and Representatives with e-mails, letters and phone calls, it WILL make a difference.

Politicians are painfully aware of the multiplier effect. If one person takes the trouble to contact them, there are several hundred more out there who feel the same way but are too shy or will not take the trouble. If we could generate as many e-mails to Congress as there are names on the waiting list, we can make something happen.

I understand that there was a several thousand dollar credit for plug in hybrids in the energy bill, but that it was removed under threat of a veto. I understand tht there is another bill in the hopper to try to reinstate it. I understand that this is also under threat of veto. I f we hae to wait for a new President and Congress to get it done, I guess we just will. Maybe by that time, things will get so much worse that the amount will go up!

If the credit could come off of the 30-35K number being reported here, we might have something. If GM and/or its dealers just packed the price up to match, as Toyota dealers did with the Prius, then I guess it won’t help.

Anyway, I will try to find out some more specifices tomorrow.

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Jeff M Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 8:52 pm

GM stock was up 20% today… better than expected earnings (after accounting for the right off in their GMAC financial division)… they also had another record I think… something like 64% of their sales now come from outside the USA.

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Tagamet Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 9:44 pm

Noel @ 27
Noel, Noel, Noel, (shakes head slowly). Just substitute Pelosy’s name for Hilary and ask why they haven’t “lowered gas prices” within the first 100 days as promised. A) those tax credits come form the public pocket. B) there is not a single suggestion from the Dems that increases supply. C) if we can’t (and we can’t) dictate prices in our country, how the HECK are we going to dictate to OPEC?
Sorry, rant off. (and I’d just gotten started)

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Dave G Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 10:34 pm

For those who think it’s useless to make predictions 6 years into the future – I disagree. Initial planning for production volumes has to be thought out way in advance. You don’t have to commit many resources way in advance, but you have to begin planning for probable volumes 5-6 years out in order to see what it will take to get there. If there are any potential gotchas in the supply chain, it’s better to know sooner than later.

For those who think Federal tax credits for electric vehicles are wasteful – I disagree. Yes, the money for the tax credits comes from our Federal budget, which is already in deficit, but something has to be done to slow the huge amount of U.S. dollars going overseas to pay for oil. The dollar is plunging. If the tax credits help convert us from foriegn oil to electricity produced mostly from domestic sources, then the economy will strengthen and incomes will rise, which will create a larger tax base, which would eventually more than offset the initial tax breaks. Consider tax breaks for electric vehicles an investment in the future.

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Tagamet Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 10:48 pm

@Dave G re govt funding of Volt purchase: Don’t you think that the Volt’s merits will be such that they will sell as many as GM can *produce*? As economy’s of scale come on line, the price will fall AND THEY’LL STILL sell as many as they can produce.
I know that predicting the future can be problematic (even I was wrong once), but I got a $1.25 that gives long odds on this prediction being correct.

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Texas Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 11:53 pm

The first time I saw that picture of A123’s production looking battery cell I almost wet myself. For the love of God please sell this for a good price. Perhaps have a program for BEV enthusiasts where you sell those cells at cost if we promise to Paint A123 in large letters all over the car. I will not only do that but I’ll wear a matching A123 T-shirt and hat. Heck, I’ll even dress up in an energizer bunny like suit to get my hot hands of those cells.

I

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NZDavid Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 12:29 am

Tagamet is wise.

#23 VancouverJon
“Did people notice in that article that A123 estimates that their batteries should last for over 15 years of daily charging? I think that’s a bigger story than the bogus 300,000 Volts on the road figure. If the batteries can perform even close to that well, that will be huge.”

I totally agree, this is huge! 15 years for battery life is a BIG deal.

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greg woulf Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 7:11 am

How many 30k+ cars do you people think they sell in a year? 300,000 would be fantastic in 4 years. Only the people that have heard of the Volt will even consider buying one, and trust me, most people haven’t heard of it.

At the same time, I don’t think it’s unreasonable in the extreme. If the car performs the way they say, 40 mile ev range in the aggressive style, no motor failures, no fires, all goodness, then I think people will flock to the car and 300,000 will be easy with current gas prices or higher.

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cburk Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 9:36 am

If we can get our troops out of Iraq and instead spend the $ on tax credits for buying electric cars we could all be buying electric cars for $10,000 or less and it wouldn’t take more than a year or so for OPEC to be forced into submission. I read yesterday that if we could increase our domestic oil production by 2-3 million barrels a day it would have a drastic effect on OPEC price gouging. I don’t understand why our country isn’t going after alternative fuels and energy sources with the same determination that we put into beating the Russians to the moon. If we would have stayed out of Iraq and instead invested the half trillion we have spent so far in getting our country off of oil we would probably all be driving electric cars by know while the middle east would be wondering what they are going to do with all of their excess oil.

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N Riley Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 11:04 am

#42 cburk

This is not the place for Iraq bashing. We all wish our military was home, but they are not. If we could have not spent that money in Iraq, it would have been wasted somewhere else by the government. At least military purchases was keeping jobs going in the companies supplying the military. So, let’s get off that track, please.

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N Riley Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 11:09 am

Are any of you considering buying A123’s battery pack for the Prius to give it more electric range and up to 150 MPG? The retrofit cost $9,999.00. Is that too much? I don’t have a Prius, but may have one until the Volt comes out.

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Statik Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 11:33 am

#44 N Riley

I have been thinking about it very seriously.

I was waiting on the next gen Prius, then hopefully replacing car number 2 with a Volt (fingers crossed), but I have always said, ‘the first electric car to market that I can get service within it’s EV range’ I would buy,

My gut tells me that as soon as they install their first ‘direct to cutomer’ unit (retail installations start in July), I will be in line (I don’t like to live in ‘hypotheticals if I can help it).

I don’t think I’ll get a new Prius however, I was checking out the local market and I can get a 2006 with 25K miles on it for $15,000. Add 10K for install and I’m looking at a 35 mile range electric for $25,000. Even if I overshoot the electric, the MPG is well over 100 on 150 mile+ trips.

I need to replace a car soon, and the math certainly holds up going from my G6 (currently getting 20.5MPG) to the Prius at 100MPG. (I drive about 1,500/mth). About $365 down to $75 (+30ish for electricity)….that and I get to be a smug SOB about it.

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Statik Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 11:51 am

Side note:

The i-MiEV is apparently shipping to UK in Q1 2009. For what it’s worth there is now a ‘registration form’ if your interested and live in the UK, lol.

Apparently the first quarter run is ‘very small’ and they will choose who gets first dibs from this form.

Linky:
http://www.mitsubishi-cars.co.uk/i-ev/register.asp

Q1-2009…pretty swell if it’s true. The first true ‘production’ EV looks to go to Mitsu…but as they say, ‘doesn’t count until the wheels are on the ground’

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N Riley Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 11:53 am

#45 Statik

I do think buying a good used Prius (even three or four years old) and putting the battery pack in it would be better than doing it with a new 2008 or 2009 Prius. Lots of money saved that way.

I have been wanting to buy a Prius but wanted to see what the 2009 was offering over the 2008. But it sure is hard to keep filling up my 200 Nissan Crew Cab pickup that only gets 16 MPG city and about 20 on the highway. It is a great truck and has never given me a bit of trouble. I have only about 68,000 mile s on it and I do intend to keep it. I just need to have a truck around for all those jobs which my wifes Odyssey isn’t suited.

I have been really trying to decide if it is worth the wait for the 2009 or go ahead and buy a 2008 and start enjoying the fuel savings now.

I probably will not have the opportunity to buy the new A123 battery pack anytime soon. Unless I want to drive a long way to find some one who is installing them. I live in south central Mississippi right outside Jackson, the capitol.

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N Riley Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 11:57 am

Sorry, but that is a 2000 Nissan Crew Cab pickup. Don’t think Nissan made a model in year 200.

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Statik Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 12:14 pm

#48 N Riley

I think it was a Datsun in ‘200.

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calgaryvolt Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 1:16 pm

#37 Dave, in reply to your comment about planning production for the future, I agree that it must be done and is probably happening at the GM shop. I’m sure they are analyzing demographic data they have, potential interest data and surveys and what not, looking at production facilities and supplier abilities and such. I’m positive that a rigorous study is being done. What I see as being useless are claims by independent sources such as JD Power, in this case, because at this point in the game there are still too many variables that are unknown to them (unless GM has been sharing their production and sales analysis information.)

At this point any number provided by them or any other people, other than GM means little. Anyone can set up a monte carlo simulation to run on their assumed parameters and spit out and projected production and sales number.

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NZDavid Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:39 am

Statik is on to it. The best, and most cost effective, thing to do is buy a second hand Prius and put the Hymotion pack into that.

Given you probably lose the warrantee the cheaper the better!

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N Riley Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:37 pm

As long as you do not spend too much for the second hand Prius.

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THOM Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 12:26 pm

THE VOLT IS A PIPE DREAM… THIS IS GMs ATTEMPT TO GET INVESTORS.

FACTS:
1) GM CLAIMS CAR IS ON SCHEDUELE HOWEVER
LATEST DATA IS “PROTOTYPE” BODY STYLE HAS POOR AERODYNAMICS AND WILL BE COMPLETELY CHANGED
2) MILEAGE WENT FROM 640 MILES IN SOME ARTICLES TO 300MILES IN OTHERS
3) PREDICTED COSTS ARE 20K IN SOME ARTICLES AND 40K IN OTHERS.
4)GM LATEST SO CALLED ELECTRIC CAR IS ACTUALLY A CHEVY IMPALA
5)iF THE ev1 COULD GET OVER 100 MILES ON A CHARGE, HOW COME THE VOLT CAN ONLY GET 40 (AFTER 12 YRS).
6) THE IDEA OF INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE TURNING A GENERATOR, CHARGING A BATTERY, DISCHARGING THE BATTERY THROUGH A MOTOR CONTROLLER TO A MOTOR IS ONE OF THE MOST INEFFICIEENT WAS OF ENERGY TRANSFER.
iF IT WAS EVER TESTED IT WOULD BE QUITE OBVIOUS

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Tagamet Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 12:45 pm

THOM
yOU”RE hILARIOUS.
tHANKS fOR tHE Laughs.

(now where did I put my tin foil hat…..)

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DG Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 6:13 pm

30,000 x 300,000 = 9,000,000,000/3 = 3,000,000,000 per year not a bad pay off for GM. Assuming they are building on a profit.

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J.D. Power: 300,000 Chevy Volts Will be Sold by 2014

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