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Poll: World is Running out of Oil
70% of respondents of a new international poll believed that world oil production has already peaked, and only 22% believe enough new oil will be found to allow it to remain a primary fuel source.
Steven Kull director of the poll’s publisher WorldPublicOpinion.org said "What’s most striking is there’s such a widespread consensus around the world that oil is running out and governments need to make a real effort to find new sources of energy,"
Also there is a report of an attack Sunday on a Japanese oil tanker off the coast of Yemen, by a rocket fired from a small ship. This helped push the cost of oil to a new record of over $117 per barrel.
Source (Reuters )
Popularity: 4%
(1 votes, average: 5 out of 5) 
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Posted by: Lyle
76 Responses to “Poll: World is Running out of Oil”
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April 21st, 2008 at 10:18 am
Seems like a pretty useless poll, in my opinion. Were they asking every day John Doe’s what they thought??? These people likely don’t know anything about exploration and recovery and only have an opinion based on what has been reported in various forms of media.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:35 am
The fact of the matter is that we are running out. Oh it won’t happen fast but it will happen. Geologists that are independent of oil interests have been saying so for the last few years. Recovery techniques and exploration for new reserves only postpones the inevitable. We will run out eventually.
The problem that really faces us is the fact that much more than gasoline is derived from petroleum. Pharmaceuticals, plastics, medical devices and much, much more come from petroleum. We need to wean ourselves off of gasoline to power our cars so that our oil reserves can be used for these other uses. Burning oil up in our cars is incredibly wasteful albeit profitable.
Our financial resources are better put into finding alternative sources for powering our cars than in exploring for more reserves. Digging up the planet, polluting our marine environment and destroying wilderness won’t solve the problem that will eventually come. It will only prolong it and then we will have no oil and we’ve ruined the land in the process.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:38 am
I found the following in a recent Motor Trend blog:
“Lost in the big news last week — the race for the Democratic nomination, the reeling U.S. economy, the ongoing life/death saga that is “Dancing with the Stars” — came word that a new deep-water exploration area off the coast of Brazil could contain as much as 33 billion barrels of oil. How much is that? If estimates are accurate, the Brazilian find would amount to the world’s third-largest oil reserve. In comparison, the U.S. has proven oil reserves of 21.8 billion barrels.
Just what the latest Brazil find (dubbed “Sugarloaf Mountain”) could mean to our oil-ravenous world isn’t yet completely clear, but the Associated Press quoted Roger Read, an energy analyst at New York-based investment bank Natixis Bleichroeder Inc., as saying, ‘This would lay to rest some of the peak oil pronouncements that we were out of oil, that we weren’t going to find any more, and that we have to change our way of life.’”
I’m not being dismissive to people who think oil is at the end, but I don’t think we all have to live in fear and mass hysteria yet either. A car like the Volt will help us wean off of the black stuff altogether, and then the problem of peak oil will go away as a result. The Volt just makes sense.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:44 am
I see stupid every day, but asking as bunch of civilians whether oil is running out takes the cake. They don’t even know where oil comes from. Now let’s take another poll and ask 3 year olds whether Einstein was right or not.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:47 am
I do agree that this poll has nothing to do with the actual amount of oil left, however I think it does have an important social meaning… Whether or not there is a lot of oil left, I think we need a change of lifestyle.
Reply to 1. calgaryvolt: you can easily find the answer to your question at the link provided in the article, it is on their front page.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:59 am
Reply to 4. kent beuchert: it is only stupid if you use this data for technical decisions regarding future oil exploration. It would be smart, however, to consider this data in when dealing with political or economic decisions. The will of the masses dictates what each political candidate says and does. Whether or not the masses are correct, you need to know what they think so you can tailor your decision for the best outcome.
To sum it up, I’ll provide some sentiments from one of my professors, and an example: “You can develop the greatest technology in the world, but unless the people accept it, it is useless.” Example: the Honda Insight. This was an extremely fuel-efficient car that would work for a large majority of a given person’s needs (ok, not everyone, I grew up in a farming community and it isn’t practical as a work vehicle, but what about all of the highway-only commuters out there?), however since Americans are addicted to Bigger and Biggest, it is no longer in production.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:00 am
#5: I did read the article and went to the polling institution site to see what they had written. I can see which countries were part of this survey but the important question is who were the respondents? Like Kent in 4 mentioned many people will have no idea about the complexity in exploration and production and will have no idea about current projects and exploration and development potential around the world. If they surveyed individuals with an informed opinion then it might be different. Most people are probably basing opinions on what they see oil prices and gasoline prices doing as well as the media’s reporting of peak oil and such. This is more a survey in finding out whether or not the media is doing an adequate job in spreading peak oil concerns as opposed to having any sort of actual merit.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:07 am
Right, fire an RPG at a tanker from a motoboat and the price of crude goes up $2/barrel. How much is that a day? Would somebody do that on purpose? Naaaahh!
Or just plant a story that it happened, even if it didn’t. One day later the hoax is exposed, and the price goes back down, but somebody pockets what, $60 million extra?
My dad used to say, “Let’s not and say we did.”
Wait until somebody starts another war in the Middle East. $200/barrel? No problem.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:12 am
#7: Looking under the Questionnaire/methodology(PDF) link provides enough information to convince me that they have their stuff together. These people do polling and statistics as a career, if they weren’t fairly accurate with their results I assume they would quickly be out of a job.
I also think that there may be more useful information that could be derived from this data than only the effectiveness of the general media.
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/apr08/WPO_Oil_Apr08_quaire.pdf
April 21st, 2008 at 11:12 am
But the US has 100 years of coal, tar sands and shale oil. I think the US energy policy (the one that our vice president refuses to reveal) calls for coal gasification once petroleum peaks.
And the development of methane hydrates is being discussed.
http://www.ornl.gov/info/reporter/no16/methane.htm
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/2558946.html
When our President acknowledges that we are “addicted to oil” environmentalist types think he’s finally coming around, but I think he is simply setting the stage for the next step.
For those of us who are concerned with climate change, the fight against the use of “oil” or “petroleum” is really a fight against the use of all forms of ancient carbon based fuels.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:16 am
#3 just in addition to what was posted there about the potential reserve size and it’s implication to the global petroleum stake I’d like to mention that in Late 2007 (Sept, Oct, Nov) Petrobras also made a discovery in the Tupi field (sister field to what is being dubbed Sugarloaf) which was initially estimated to be somewhere between 2-6 billion barrels and is now potentially being re-evaluated (by BG) as being somewhere between 10 and 30 billion.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:46 am
Dick Cheney’s oil profits will go down.
Sounds like we’d better attack Brazil now.
Quick, somebody tell Dubya to prepare the troops!!
April 21st, 2008 at 11:52 am
Oil prices are based on feelings, not reality.
If everyone feels there is no oil, then oil prices go up, regardless of the cost to deliver the product.
It is a commodity, like orange juice.
That is why the poll is important.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:53 am
I think we all understand that oil is a finite resource, and only increases with cost of extraction. Since transportation is currently dependent upon oil, all of our goods and services are going to increase in price. Already, many countries are experiencing food shortages, so we need to really hunker down, as our entire economy gets overturned. We simply can’t move to renewables quick enough to avoid a bad economic situation, but renewables will be the means by which we get out from under all these high costs.
April 21st, 2008 at 12:03 pm
“Given the historic record price of oil last week touching near $117 and the admission by Russia that its own oil fields have peaked, the decision by the Saudi’s and other Middle East producers to essentially cap production at its current level for future generations should have been important news. As the authors point out, it went largely ignored by the media. Here is what a number of oil industry experts think.”
http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1436
We’re all interested in electric vehicles here so I’m including a collection of 7 short videos taken at the Smith EV stand at the Commercial Vehicle show 2008. http://www.youtube.com/user/cvsnec2008
They are using Lithium Phosphate batteries and largely Ford chassis.
Where does GM stand on Electric Vehicles? What’s up, GM?
April 21st, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Maybe Exxon will buy Brazil and make even more money.
I say we tax the s#!t out of the oil companies and put the money towards EV development.
April 21st, 2008 at 12:13 pm
#10 Glenn, #12 dodahman , #13 Jason M. Hendler, #14 Tim:
Amen. Thank you. You all give me hope for the future.
April 21st, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Sorry if I sound like a broken record…okay, I’m really not; anyhow:
I think GM needs to run a parallel program with the Volt, developing a BEV Volt with a range of 150 or so miles with no E-REV included. I know it doesn’t work for everyone, but it is an entirely oil-free vehicle, and it would work for me. It’s a HELL of a lot LESS COMPLEX than an E-REV platform and it’s easier to maintain. The work is already done. All that it needs is a more dense pack that can go the distance. Hm, why would GM keep the loser of the pack contract around for “developmental” reasons? Perhaps longer range?
I think this vehicle has the possibility of being cheaper than the current Volt as well, with development of Li-ions and ultracaps. Why not exploit this potential GM and take the BEV market as well???
April 21st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Of course we are running out of oil.
1. There is a finite amount of oil on this planet
2. We use oil every day.
So I would say that from the first day we started using oil, we’ve been running out. So this poll is no news.
April 21st, 2008 at 12:28 pm
There are so many variables to this question that even the experts disagree on whether oil production or reserves have peaked or are what they say they are. One other topic to throw into this mix is this. The worlds largest oil reserves in Saudi Arabia are a very big question. The Saudi government refuses to allow an outside assessment of these reserves, so we have no knowledge of what they really have in reserves. Experts in that area say it is not what the Saudi’s say they have, but what is actually in reserve.If the truth about those reserves ever gets out there is no telling what a barrel of oil will TRADE for ??
April 21st, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Which cars get the best/worst fuel economy?
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/bestworst.shtml
Where’s GM? Can you cay mediocre?
April 21st, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Does anyone else find it VERY scary that we are debating not if but “when” we will run out of oil. I mean we have only been burning it as a primary source of energy for what 100 years.
The fact that we can use up all the oil on the planet is scary enough for me. What is next trees, dirt, iron, air, water………….
Honestly the way the value of the dollar and oil prices have been tied together this year ( investors look for security in commodities when the slummping dollar is hurting their investments. I know this is the short and general version) the volt may cost 65,000 dollars (2010 dollar values) and a gallon of gas may cost $6.25.
Bottom line is this, we can all agree that the price of gas may fluctuate at times but for the most part it will always go up. The volt is a sound finnacial desicion right now if your daily commute is less than 50 miles roundtrip, or 25 miles one-way if you charge at work. Can you imagine how good of finnacial desicion it will be in 2 years from now assuming gas continues it’s slow upward crawl.
Here’s a good question, does anyone know the national average for a gallon of gas in mid 2006 vs. what a barrell of oil was going for.
I bet in the next 4 months when we start seeing a reflection of these enormous prices refiners are paying for a barell of oil in our per gallon prices at the pump the volt will look real good.
Me and my buddies argue all the time at what price point does gas start affecting peoples everyday lives i say $4.50 because with a 20 gallon tank that means you would spend about $90 per fill up which for most of us is every 6-9 days. Once we get over the $4.50 gallon mark we’ll see a surge of interest in this game changing automobile.
Maybe GM should pull a CIA move and sink a couple of oil tankers durning the 6 months before the release of the Volt.
Disaster Economics it works great for large government contractors, why not GM?
April 21st, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Fact #1- Current world oil consumption = 85 million barrels/day = 31 billion barrels per year
Fact #2 - estimated reserves of the new Brazilian discovery = 33 billion barrels. Subtract 10% for pumping/drilling energy = 30 billion barrels net.
Conclusion #1- At best, the Brazilian discovery could extend the world’s consumption habit by 1 year.
Conclusion #2 - We would need a major find like Brazil’s EVERY YEAR from here to eternity to continue using oil at current rates.
Question - Do you think that will happen?
Consider - Unless things change, EIA estimates world oil consumption to GROW to well over 100 million bpd.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:28 pm
#12 dodham
“Dick Cheney’s oil profits will go down.
Sounds like we’d better attack Brazil now.”
I know what you meant to say you left the washingtonesq off:
The people of brazil have been suffering for to long, we are going to let freedom ring, and free the people from the evil dictator, we will stay the course, they have weapons of mass destruction, and are threating our national security, ow and they repress women, and human rights, and if your not with us your with them, and they have clandestine nuclear program, and they…they….they….
they don’t like football, that’s it we got to get them.
LOL
We have so little political clout in the world, every country knows were full of Sh*t. This is probably exactly what the rest of the world hears when we speak.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:30 pm
End of oil, We never had enough!
What do you think it will be like when every middleclass family has at least 1 car in India & China.
You know seeing that they make up 2/3rds of the worlds population we might want to take that into account.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:46 pm
#24 jPhillips
ROFL!!!
Actually it’s because the Brazilian Bikini is corrupting the moral fibre of the world.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:56 pm
It sure would be nice if we had FUSION power plants, lots of solar plants, and lots of 100% electric cars and hybrids these days. Running out of oil would be a fairly minor problem. Plastics and the other stuff that’s made out of oil would be the issue instead of transportation.
Solar energy won’t run out for a few BILLION years and you can get most of the raw materials for fusion energy from seawater if necessary. Plus, with fusion energy it is MUCH safer than fission nuclear energy and there’s tiny amounts of waste that would be useless for making nuclear bombs.
Sure would be nice if the super geniuses in fusion energy got ONE fusion power plant built in the next 10 years. Unfortunately, it’ll probably be another 20 years or whatever. A lot of economic turmoil could happen in the next 20 years if we don’t get SUPER busy on getting some better energy solutions.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Dodahman, #26.
Ya, those Brazilian Bikinis. **Heavy sigh, pant pant **
I think MY moral fibre has been destroyed.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Sorry to hijack, just thought you guys might be interested in this.
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/04/21/experts-express-skepticism-of-volt-programs-success/
We return you to your previously scheduled programming.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:34 pm
At $117.00+ per barrel, I don’t care if there is a 10,000 year supply.
I want to use as little oil based fuel as possible for transportation.
That is the first step towards energy independence!
April 21st, 2008 at 2:42 pm
#18 Dave B:
I hear you. As I read all of these comments, that Mitsu BEV with 100 - 120 mile range is looking better every day.
April 21st, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Noel @ 31,
Glad someone is listening. BEVs are coming in one form or another. I’d like to see GM capitalize on their Volt investment, but the MiEV is going to be tough to beat at $24K. And NO gas required, and it will last a long time. I love the Volt, but the price is creeping upwards and the range is a disappointment. Besides, my goal is to stick it to OPEC ASAP.
April 21st, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Just a little oil background.
First oil well in the world was drilled in Pennsylvannia in 1859.
Since that time the Human race has used slightly over 1 trillion barrles.
The world is not running out of oil.
The world is running out of easily accessible oil or more commonly known as light sweet crude.
There is an estimated 4.7 trillion barrels of non-conventional crude in the world in the form of tar sands, heavy oil, and oil shale. Unforntunatly it is very hard to produce and quite costly.
The US had better become the worlds exporter of new innovative renewable power technology if we want to maintain our economic dominance and not be taken over by China.
April 21st, 2008 at 3:49 pm
@ Jim l #30
“At $117.00+ per barrel, I don’t care if there is a 10,000 year supply.
I want to use as little oil based fuel as possible for transportation.
That is the first step towards energy independence!”
Couldn’t agree more. It’s hard to put a value on being able to drive your car while everyone else is waiting for their rations. If we come into a oil crunch in the next 2 years, i wonder what the tax rebate on the volt will be then.
My dad use to say “everything in moderation” i think the guys who steer our energy ship weren’t listening to my pop.
April 21st, 2008 at 4:26 pm
[quote]Maybe Exxon will buy Brazil and make even more money.
I say we tax the s#!t out of the oil companies and put the money towards EV development.[/quote]
Yeah that will help. The oil companies already pay huge taxes despite what the media want you to believe. And where do the oil companies get the money to pay these taxes… duh FROM YOU!
All these regulations and taxes do is drive BIG OIL overseas! And thats not what we need is more business leaving the US for other coutries. ExxonMobil is constantly opening new plants (plastics etc) overseas but not much here. Anyone looking for a JOB!
Again ExxonMobil only had profit margins of about 8%. Inline or below what most businesses make. Contrast that with the 30+% Walmart makes. Who is evil now!
****************************************
Electric power is coming to a car near you. I want electric not because it will save the earth… because it won’t… but instead to save money in energy cost. I hope GM realizes that not everyone can afford a 35K dollar car.
April 21st, 2008 at 4:27 pm
#33Jon,
“The US had better become the worlds exporter of new innovative renewable power technology if we want to maintain our economic dominance”
Yup, I agree, I guess the wealth of Britain was built on the steam engine and coal ,( Ive just been in the UK looking at some old stationary engines) and that continued with oil generating the wealth of the US.
The next round of wealth will go to the country or countries that can develop and market alternative low cost energy sources.
inmho
April 21st, 2008 at 5:11 pm
We were out to lunch today and in a conversation with a waitress we know she said that her husband who has to drive to work was spending over $800 a month on fuel for his truck. She said it was more thant their home mortgage payment! He is in the construction trades and requires a truck.
How long do you think this is can go on?
We need a national energy policy, we have never had one.
If we build nuclear power plants to replace all the oil fired plants that would be a first step. With the present available technology the existing coal plants can be made to produce almost zero poluted emissions.
Push forward with the Volt and like vehicles with tax breaks or what ever it takes to change over to electric for all except the heaviest trucks.
This has to be done, but for the past 30 years neither party has shown the leadership to take this on and do it, because the oil lobby has owned them all and still does.
Now it has reached the point where it is a matter of national security.
April 21st, 2008 at 5:31 pm
There is one part of this mess I do not see anybody talking about. Oil is priced in dollars. World wide the dollar is not worth much. Our neighbor to the north has better money than we do. That has not been the case very often. $1000 gold is another symptom of this problem. We need to fix the dollar problem almost as much as we need to solve the oil problem. JMHO
Take Care
Arch
April 21st, 2008 at 5:48 pm
#29 Drivin98. Thanks for the great link. Very interesting read.
I’m not buying that there is a thermal problem with the battery or that the thermal issues are unknown.
April 21st, 2008 at 5:55 pm
DaveB #18. That would work for me. I mostly use my car for my 101 mile round trip commute to work. 120-150 mile BEV would be fine with me. I would seriously consider it. The Volt is getting extremely pricey for me to buy. But I’m waiting around to hear to the final price. Meanwhile I just filled up my tank with 87 octane for $3.69 per gallon.
Yesterday it was $3.64 at the same place.
April 21st, 2008 at 5:55 pm
I will bet you that somehow that poll was financed by the oil industry indirectly as a gauge as to how effective their social propaganda has been to decide how far up they can crank up the price of oil. By convincing the masses we have a shortage, those masses are less likely to protest as the prices go through the roof as they feel they are justified. Psychology 101. Someone in BP marketing is going to get a big raise based on those poll results. Look for less leaks about big oil finds in the future and more about how we are running out.. A bunch of hot Methane if you ask me!
April 21st, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Noel, #31. While at Volt Nation, I had the opportunity to sit in the Mitsu BEV. It is very small, more comfortable than I expected. It sound tinny with I closed the door. Did I mention that is was small. Very small.
)
(I mean the car
April 21st, 2008 at 6:08 pm
The sooner we can stop building gas cars and start building all electrics the better we will all be. The Volt is just a step in that direction. Maybe a step back to the EV-1 with Li=ion batteries and 120 mile range would help. In August 2006 I bought one of the last Honda Insights because I could not buy a BEV. I was laughed at at work by 7 other employees who were driving big ole P/U trucks. Now at $3.55 per gllons nobody is laughing, as they drive to work and spend $80.00 or more a week in gas. Diversify GM and get Electric poer into all your vehicles ASAP. I am still waiting for my mule. TED
April 21st, 2008 at 6:09 pm
The sooner we can stop building gas cars and start building all electrics the better we will all be. The Volt is just a step in that direction. Maybe a step back to the EV-1 with Li=ion batteries and 120 mile range would help. In August 2006 I bought one of the last Honda Insights because I could not buy a BEV. I was laughed at at work by 7 other employees who were driving big ole P/U trucks. Now at $3.55 per gllons nobody is laughing, as they drive to work and spend $80.00 or more a week in gas. Diversify GM and get Electric power into all your vehicles ASAP. I am still waiting for my mule. TED
April 21st, 2008 at 6:13 pm
#37 RockyRoad two things you are off on:
1) The best processes on the drawing board for coal plants still produce a lot of pollution, only they plan on storing it under ground. Big difference from produce zero!
2) We have always had an energy policy. Republicans & Democrats alike, only you have not agreed with it. That policy was to keep the US hooked on oil to keep the political contributions rolling into the party coeffers. Last I heard the Kennedy family had lots of investment in oil too. Both parties justify their positions with I must stay in office to effect good & to do so means I must compromise to stay here as if no one else is worthy of the seat of power. There are very few statesmen left, people who will speak the truth and vote based on the good of the country and not their next election. The days of our current form of government are numbered and it won’t be pretty when it collapses under the debt. Be prepared. Food storage & 2nd amendment. But don’t worry the Volt will be here before it comes crashing down. I do expect to see its demise before my own & I am in my late 40’s.
April 21st, 2008 at 6:24 pm
In my view there will always be oil available but at the producers will charge it will only be used for petrochemicals, as a transport fuel it will soon be ridiculous. The reasons for this really dont matter because they are beyond our control.
My concern is that GM, who could show strong leadership in getting off oil in transport is not.
They actually behave like oportunistic short term marketers, a bit like the oil companies themselves.
The Volt is not a direction for the company, it is just a gamble, one of many gambles.
For example, on Yahoo this morning or evening, was the Headline “Chinese like gas guzzlers”.
They refered to the Escalade that GM felt would have rapid growth in China for the wealthy that have chaufeurs.
But the journalist must be laughing because they refered to the Chinese goverments genuine concern about pollution and oil dependance, and that gas prices are being kept artificially low.
The journalists realise gas guzzlers wont have a big future in China.
But does GM?
There was also a reference to Chinese workers prefering Camrys if they can scrape up the cash, about ten years salary at $30,000US
So what is GM doing?
GM is offering a Volt four seat saloon,in 2010, an Escalade that would make a good conversion to a assault vehicle and a Hybrid Buick that nobody wants.
You have to laugh..
April 21st, 2008 at 6:26 pm
#41 Rashiid Amul:
I was just saying basically the same thing you were at #39. I commute 48 miles round trip, and I probably average another 50 miles of work related driving during the day. I could recharge at work. So I could adjust my life to live with a 100 mile range and use my wife’s car for any longer trips on the weekends.
Small and tinny probably inevitably goes with keeping the weight and the frontal area down to allow the 100+ mile range. Somebody said that it looks like a 4 door Smart. I can live with that. Small is beautiful and less is more. Never so true as in electric cars, at least at this point in their evolution. It appears to be a whole order of magnitude more capable than the Zenn, for example, while costing 1/4 of a Tesla, the only pure electric I have seen with a comparable range.
Having said all that, I am extremely unlikely to buy any Japanese car, unless GM really provokes me. On the other hand, my sense of it is that the likes of us are unlikely to get our hands on a Volt in anything less that 3 years. Patience is not unlimited, especially in light of our common experience with gas prices. And, your comment about the price of the Volt certainly resonates with me.
April 21st, 2008 at 6:31 pm
oops,
bad typo
Should read “at the price the producers will charge”
April 21st, 2008 at 6:31 pm
#45 bruce g:
My dad used to say, “You have to laugh to keep from crying.”
April 21st, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Here’s some good news about the cars coming out in the next 5-10 years … things that would slow down “peak oil” anxieties a little.
http://www.designnews.com/article/CA6553122.html?industryid=43655#_self
The car companies are finally getting serious about using more and more lightweight materials. This will save a LOT of gas in the years ahead. Ford especially is focused on lightweight materials. GM too. The Volt will have a “a molded thermoplastic composite” hood. Efficiency expert Amory Lovins must be a happy camper these days. It seems that the car companies are finally listening to him.
More magnesium, aluminum, high strength steel, carbon fiber and thermoplastics. Cars will have the same safety and strength but they’ll be a good bit lighter. This is great news. Apparently, these materials are finally getting cheap enough for mass production cars.
Who knows how much oil is left underground in the world. Cars that are lighter will certainly make what’s left last a little longer until the hybrids and electric cars start to dominate … and they will … despite what the critics are saying. Internal combustion engine cars are on the decline and electric cars are ascending.
I can’t wait til we get super efficient, quiet, non polluting electric cars everywhere. Mother nature and everyone (except OPEC and the oil companies) will be happy campers. Our kids and grandkids are going to shake their heads and ask us why the heck we had those loud, polluting, energy guzzling IC engine cars for so long.
Long live the super lightweight, super efficient electric car and hybrid car! Thank you GM for finally getting serious about electric cars and hybrids. The Volt design team will probably be a little famous in the years ahead you know. They’re a bit like the scientists, engineers, and astronauts working on the Apollo missions to the moon in the 60s. They’re bringing high tech batteries and efficient electric drivetrains to the world.
Man, I feel like a car nerd these days. Oh, well. It’s just a blog. They’ve been calling car enthusiasts “gearheads” over the years. They’ll have to come up with something new for us hybrid and electric car fans … “batteryheads” perhaps?
April 21st, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Noel #46, Noel, I didn’t mean to knock the Mitsu BEV. I think I would drive it also, as long as it could do the 101 mile range without a problem. My other car can do trips. On weekends, it is extremely rare for me to drive beyond 100 miles on both days. It is more like 50.
If the BEV is in the mid $20’s I will strongly consider it. The Volt price rumors have me very nervous. I miss the “nicely under 30″ days.
And the 48K rumor has me very concerned. But like I said earlier, I will wait and see the real price will be before buying. Although my piece of junk Subaru needs to be replaced in the coming weeks. I have no idea what to buy. Something with better MPG and can comfortably fit the family, groceries, etc
April 21st, 2008 at 7:04 pm
#50 Rashiid Amul:
I don’t know what kind of mileage the Subie gets, but I have heard some good about the new Malibu hybrid. Granted that it is a “soft” hybrid, still I understand that it gets around 27 mpg. Some owners of the Saturn equivalent have claimed a lot better, but who knows? Either Automobile or Autoweek said that there is enough of a tax credit that you get the hybrid feature almost for free.
My cars will run OK for another couple of years but, if I really needed to buy one now, I would take a serious look at it. I don’t know about your area, but most Chevy dealers here have at least one in stock. It doesn’t cost you anything to kick the tires.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Cool. A post in my area of expertise
1. The planet is NOT running out of oil. Peak Oil is the point where the ability to PRODUCE it at a greater rate is reached.
2. the more efficient we are at recovering the from oil fields, the quicker the depletation rates.
3. Russia has admitted to peaking now.
4. KSA says they want to keep some for future generations.
5. Uncle Hugo is busy nationalisationing everything, production is slowly going down. Also see Pemex.
#23 Keith. Your fact two is not a fact. they haven’t even reached the salt layer yet! NO ONE knows how much oil is down there. 33 billion is unlikely. I note the official who made the claim, acknowlodged the sharemarket price spiked after the announcement, which he retracted the next day. Himmmm.
Check out, this site for the latest production figures. & read the comments that follow. Understand the importance of Russia. Also the big six Arab oil producers increased their own use of oil by 1 million bpd last year. ie. less to export.
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3875
IMHO Peak oil is here now. I expect to see millions dying next year. Food production is based on cheap oil. think Hati, Bangledesh, Pakastan, parts of Africa.
To the statement that we have x years of coal so no problem. that is ONLY current extraction rates. Convert all the coal to fuel and the time to run out goes down. Not to mention the GHC’s For transport EV is the way to go. I just wonder if GM has started in time.
Finally, once peak oil starts there is NO way to stop it. Look at the production figures for the lower 48 states which peaked in 1970 for confirmation of this claim.
I just prey GM et al. can keep up with the production needs of everyone who needs to convery from ICE in a hurry.
Postscript. Approaching peak oil, I would also expect to see the financial markets have severe problems, expect mortage rates to rise etc.
Tagamet I think I need to lie down now.
PS Diesel up 5 cents today, 10 cents last week, now NZD1.56 / litre.
this is really not fun anymore.
95 octane now NZD1.95 / litre. ie
1.95 x 3.79 = NZD7.39 / US gallon. So no complaints at 4.00/gallon please.
Cheers
NZ David
April 21st, 2008 at 7:35 pm
doesn’t matter when we run out. it matters when the max production at one point happens.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Exxon owns .61 percent of the worlds oil reserves.
Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Dhabi and Venezuala (in decending order) together control 60%. Next followed by Libya and others. Do you realize Libya has 6 times the reserves as ExxonMobil. Exxon maybe big here but is small in the world of Big Oil!
April 21st, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Rashiid #51
I don’t doubt that the initial 10K Volts released will command a high price, like $45-50K. GM will also sell every one of those probably even before they hit the dealerships (if that’s possible).
Personally, I know I’m not going to get one of those anyway, so I’m not worried about it. What I’m looking at is year 2, and a possible release of 60-100K Volts. I also expect there to be some inkling of a competitor at this point and I expect much more reasonable pricing, like about $30K base and $35K nicely equipped, or maybe better.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:36 pm
#33 Jon, you hit the nail on the head. The world is not running out of oil, but we are running out of cheap oil. Did anyone read last months popular mechanics? There are more proven oil reserves in the US and Canada than in all of the middle east, the problem is that it is in the form of oil shale and oil sands. It’s not profitable to develop these fields unless oil is over 100 dollars a barrel, which it is now….Which is why they are starting to develop the oil sands in Canada.
Personally, I think that the world is a loooong way off from being oil independent. In fact, it may never happen. Conservation, and new technologies such as the volt have the potential to drastically reduce our oil usage, but the price of oil is not coming down. Cars can be modified to use less, or even no oil, but planes cannot. There simply is no alternative to oil when it comes to jet fuel, and batteries won’t fly an airplane.
To date, the world has consumed somewhere around 1 trillion barrels of oil, and I think we have somewhere around 1.3 trillion barrels of crude oil left. There are however, over 5 trillion more barrels of oil in NA alone, between the oil shale of Colorado and the oil sands of Canada. Make no mistake, this oil will be used, as soon as it becomes profitable to do so.
I really can’t wait for the volt though, as I want absolutely no part in oil consumption.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/extreme_machines/4212552.html
I hate to reference wikipedia, but hey, I’m not going to make a science project out of a blog post
April 21st, 2008 at 8:54 pm
One of the things I find funny is that after the last oil crisis the oil companies came around here with good money. I have a 100 acre farm and they paid me $500 a year for a lease for the oil. They never drilled or anything—-just paid me money. I got the rights back. Now if this mess is so bad why have I not had ANY offers?
Sure makes me wonder what the game is.
Take Care
Arch
April 21st, 2008 at 9:11 pm
http://www.gasresources.net
An interesting source for information on the Abiotic oil theory…
April 21st, 2008 at 9:13 pm
“Exxon owns .61 percent of the worlds oil reserves.
Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Dhabi and Venezuala (in decending order) together control 60%. Next followed by Libya and others. Do you realize Libya has 6 times the reserves as ExxonMobil. Exxon maybe big here but is small in the world of Big Oil!”
Do these nations themselves own this oil? The governments physically posses the oil? Or do private corporations which reside in said states own the oil? Or does OPEC own it?
April 21st, 2008 at 9:33 pm
As a consumer I can’t worry about how long it will take to get America (or the world for that matter!) off oil. What I CAN do is the best for myself, and I would hope more will do the same. Collectively we’ll move in the right direction.
I’m going to buy a Volt. I know I’m not going to get one of the first 10K, but I’ll get a second release. I’m also looking into PV’s for my rooftop.
Even if this weren’t a green thing, it would be about thinking this thing through in an economic sense. The price of gas isn’t going to go down, and quite simply I’d like to exercise my freedom of travel w/o it. It’s time to move ahead, it just takes guts for a company, despite all the nay sayers, to push this through and take a giant leap.
If everyone got economically selfish for themselves, we’d be on the right track to eliminating oil as a means of everyday propulsion.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:27 pm
I did not read all the posts in this thread, but it seems we are confused about the meaning of running out of oil. When we have burned the last barrel in the ground? The last easily recoverable barrel in the ground. When demand exceeds production so there is a shortage. Or when, no matter the price, you cannot find gas in filling stations? In the 1970’s we ran out of gas according to the last definition. And a Volt would have been sweet back then.
April 21st, 2008 at 11:05 pm
Van,
A good question and could I rephrase the phrase and say it isnt running out of oil we mean but rather running away from oil.
I believe we will run away when the cost is more than a family can bear and that varies with the state of the economy.
Strategies will vary from family to family but could include migration or more cost effective transport, feet, bikes, mass transport,electric cars.
Anything to avoid bankrupcy.
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:53 am
I read an interesting article on this topic a few weeks back by Dr. Paul Newendorp, parts of which were printed in the Feb 29 issue of Trail-Gazzett newspaper for Estes Park, Colorado. See the link below and scroll down to “Demanding a New Supply.”
http://www.eptrail.com/archives/2008/02february/0229fri.html
April 22nd, 2008 at 6:19 am
Noel, # 52. The Subaru gets 19 MPG all around, but 24 MPG on a long highway trip. It now needs a clutch and transmission. And this after putting in the third head gasket. It now has 120,000 miles on it and my wife is the primary driver.
I will take a look at the Malibu, but she and I are really partial to a standard shift. I know I will have to give that up when I buy a hybrid
April 22nd, 2008 at 10:44 am
Rashiid
Go look at a Honda Fit. It will set you back about $15k. On the highway, if I keep it to 65mph, I get 38 mpg. Its a good ‘tide you over’ car till you can get a plug-in. That was my strategy, anyway.
April 22nd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
#57 Will:
Unless some unimaginable new technology surfaces, by the time we get all of the tar sand and shale oil out of the ground and refined, and all of the coal mined and gasified, or whatever is done with it, we will have created an environmental disaster of unprecedented proportions.
We saw some helicopter shots of the tar sand mining in Canada on TV the other night. it makes the coal strip mines in West Virginia look tame. Plus, the greenhouse gas emissions are Titanic. Ditto for coal and shale.
We may have another 100 years of recoverable fossil fuels but, if we render the planet an unfit place to live and/or kill ourselves off in the process, what will we have achieved?
April 22nd, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Great article about oil and it’s impending world-wide outlook.
http://www.freebuck.com/articles/fquinby/051012fquinby.htm
April 22nd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Well, here’s a new one. The administration is pushing even higher CAFE standards than the industry expected. Here’s the beginning of the article and the link to read it in its entirety. This is good for GM though they may state otherwise. It makes the Volt all the more attractive by the day!
The nation’s fleet of new cars and trucks will be required to achieve 31.6 miles per gallon by 2015, The Associated Press has learned.
Transportation Department Secretary Mary Peters was outlining the plan on Earth Day, setting a schedule that was more aggressive than initially expected by industry officials.
The plan responds to a new energy law pushed by Congress and signed by President Bush that requires the fleetwide average of new cars and trucks to meet 35 mpg by 2020.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24258714/
April 22nd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
I remember someone predicting this back in 2003. What they said then was that there is enough oil in the ground to last at least until 2050, but the rate at which oil can be sucked out of pourous rock is limited, so demand will soon exceed supply. At that time, they were predicting this would happen in late 2006. Maybe they were off by a year or two, but it seems the basic prediction is correct. Good timing for the Volt. Those big SUVs aren’t looking so sexy any more.
April 22nd, 2008 at 7:11 pm
omegaman66
“Again ExxonMobil only had profit margins of about 8%. Inline or below what most businesses make. Contrast that with the 30+% Walmart makes. Who is evil now!”
I don’t begrudge any business for making profits legally and ethically. Oil companies could have 30% net for all I care, as long as they are doing it ethically and legally. I have no knowledge that they are, so more power to them. People should blame those that waste gas and those that have resisted the changes that would have led to lower gas usage, not the companies profiting from this foolishness. After all, making a profit is the point of a “for profit” business. BUT, 30% for a retail company? I don’t think so. You might want to do a little fact checking on that one. I believe Walmart nets about 3.3%.
April 22nd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Think this way: Brazil just found the 3rd biggest oil field in the World off its coast (2 in recent months), not to count when you go to gas stations over there, they offer a “menu” of Ethanol, Gasoline, Natural Gas and Diesel…just fill it out, most of the cars over there are fexfuel (fairly new word in the American dictionary) wow! Then, you think that only US is buying fuel efficient cars, think twice! oil reserves are being used a lot, and have been for the past 5 decades, but it is not disappearing. OPEC (Organized Pro End of Civilization) sees a future where not much money will be made, and like any other for-profit- blood-sucking oil organization, they compensate by raising the oil price to ridiculous levels based on speculation. And the funny thing about it is that , when a minimal incident happens: they speculate another raise, like the recent Japanese oil tanker off the coast of Somalia: “The raid came a day after pirates in the lawless Gulf of Aden fired on a Japanese oil tanker, unleashing hundreds of gallons of fuel into the sea” (associated press)”…give me a freaking beak!my next car, I hope, will be the Chevy Volt. I will be very happy to take all the Oil “dudes” for a ride.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:38 am
Koz & omegaman66:
Could be a gross profit and net profit mixup.
A gross profit of 30% to 35% is about normal for a company making sales of a product. This is the gross income of the company less the cost of the products purchased.
Net profit is the gross profit less the payroll and all expenses of the company. Net profits are all over the place, based on the type of business. Grocery stores operate on less than 1% net profit, but their gross sales are huge. Your typical small business will normally run between 3% and 10% net profit.
If oil companies are running at 8% net profit, all I can say is WOW!!!
I always wondered if when the press says that Exxon made 40 billion in profit, if they were talking gross or net….
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:19 pm
We’re not running out of oil. But I welcome the Volt.
I’m in Canada and the gas station across the street says $1.23/L, up from $1.11/L yesterday.
That equates to be about $4.66 per gallon. Not good.
April 24th, 2008 at 12:34 am
#74 Sorry, but we are running out of oil.
If anyone thinks the Bakken oil shale reserves will improve things needs to read this.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3868#more
Someone, really needs to invent a usable EV. That’s probably why the Volt in on a rush curve to production.
Kind Regards
David
April 30th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
The world did not switch from wood for a lack of trees and the world will not switch away from oil for a lack of reserves. The geopolitics of oil is far more likely to motivate electrification than the world running out of oil.