Michael Kanellos of CNET wrote a piece in which he analyzed Google.org’s ReChargeIT data. Google has a fleet of plug-in converted Priuses and Escapes which employees drive, and the data is summarized and posted here.
His conclusion is that there is an annual savings of 88 gallons of gas for the Prius plug-in versus the standard Prius. Allowing $3 per gallon of gas, and factoring in the cost of electricity, thats $250 per year savings. Kanellos argues that since the cost of the plug-in conversion currently is $15,000, it would take 95 years to recoup the outlay. He goes on in the story to include the Volt as an example of a plug-in hybrid.
He does point out that CO2 emission are reduced close to 50% in the plug-ins over the standard Priuses.
I wondered how the Volt would compare to a Prius.
First, the Volt is not a hybrid, it is an electric car with a gas range extender. If one drives 40 miles or less per day, no fuel will be used.
At a maximum for benefit, take a 40 mile per day driver (14,600 miles/year), and say a Prius gets 40 mpg. For the Volt, thats one gallon of gas per day or 365 gallons/year savings, which equals $1095/year. At $6 gas its $2190/year. The cost of electricity is about 80 cents for 40 miles (8 kWh) on average, some better some less. Thats $292. Thus, at a maximum, the Volt costs $803 per year less then the current Prius to operate.
If a Prius is $24,000 and a Volt is $35,000, it will take 13.7 years to pay off the difference.
Compared to a standard ICE-driven car, in the same setting, roughly double the numbers for Volt savings (for a $24,000 car getting 20 mpg), and the pay off time will decrease to 6.8 years.
The real question is, is cost-savings the only reason for wanting a Volt?
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:06 am)I believe the following factors are important
a) What will be average cost of gas during overall life-cycle of volt?
b) at $6 a gallon (with Natural gas linked to crude), what would be the cost of electricity?
c) how much will the government incentivate the production of renewable energy (Wind, Solar, hydrokinetic etc…)
d) What is the state of ethanol (i.e, Coskat etc…)
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:17 am)Wow. Thought the Volt would pay off better than that! Of course cost savings aren’t the only reason. There’s the environmental factor, the reduced cost of maintenance, the ever rising price of gas, and I would imagine the resale value for the Volt will be very high.
Still, that’s an eye opener. Didn’t know a Prius was that economical. I mean.. I love the Volt…
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:28 am)"The real question is, is cost-savings the only reason for wanting a Volt?"
No.
I’v spent a great deal of the last two years reading about energy and the oil supply and I am convinced that the EREV concept is really the only way forward. Everything else is very problematic. We aren’t about to run out of oil, but it looks like it will be very difficult to expand the supply much more, and this would only delay the problem anyway. Trying to create the same amount of liquid fuels from alternate sources would require huge amounts of energy, whereas electricity can be produced many ways and is much more efficient. Transitioning to EREVs would allow us to use essentially any energy source.
That is why I want the Volt, plus I expect it to be a lot more fun to drive than what I have now.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:35 am)The Volt is an electric car, but with a gas/E85 range extender.
The question to ask is, if someone goes out and buys a regular ICE Corolla or Cobalt etc. , does anyone ever ask how they justify the increased mileage savings over what they used to be driving eventually paying for the car?
Haven’t we done this already?
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:44 am)Several factors could reduce the time to recoup the price difference:
1. Bigger tax incentives for plug-ins.
2. Foreign markets. Gas is more expensive in many foreign markets.
2. Residual battery value. An earlier post indicated that the battery could still have considerable value for non-automotive applications after it wears out for driving.
3. Maturity and scale. An earlier post indicated that GM could bring the price down several thousand dollars in the second-generation Volt by making several optimizations there is not time for now. Further, as volumes increase, the R&D cost becomes lower per car and Volt prices can come down further. Presumably similar points could be made about the battery. The Prius on the other hand is already fairly mature and at higher scale.
4. Obviously, a rise in the cost of gas in US is possible.
No doubt in the beginning GM will have to take losses and and some consumers will be willing to pay a bit of a premium. However, as time goes by, like many technologies, the Volt could become a very sensible. We just can’t expect everything to happen all at once in November 2010.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:54 am)That’s where the statements from GM come in about taking a loss in the first few years of Volt sales. They will have to cut the price to compete until volume brings down production costs, and R&D costs gets distributed over more units.
GM will just have to stick to their original plan of selling them for less and take a loss for a few years, instead of trying to break even.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:24 am)Lyle, even though you weren’t able to financially justify the Volt, your numbers are still very inaccurate in favour of the Volt.
1) Today, the Prius is 21,100 + destination, not 24,000. By "Volt-time" it will almost certainly be sub 20K.
2) Today, Prius drivers get 45 MPG, not 40. By "Volt-time" it will amost certainly be better (50MPG+?).Your ICE comparison is little better. Instead of picking some imaginary 20MPG car, why not pick an actual car in the same class as the Volt? The Elantra gets 25MPG city and costs sub $14K. Even under the most ideal conditions for the Volt (all-electric), the payback time is 14+ years (if the battery lasts that long). And that is if you don’t have to finance the extra $21,000 premium for the Volt or didn’t bother investing the extra $21,000 you had because you bought the Elantra. If you can live with a small car, the Volt looks that much worse in comparison.The Volt makes NO economic sense. I used to give it the benefit of the doubt for being environmentally positive. But I am starting to see that it really isn’t. It distracts people from buying the competitor’s excellent hybrids now. It is destined to be a low volume product and therefore will have a relatively small impact. Better that GM built a good low-cost hybrid rather than the garbage they make now (the Elantra gets better city fuel economy than the Malibu and Aura hybrids and the Spectra matches them!).
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:26 am)Heh… so much for my line breaks.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:52 am)I’m calling shenanigans on this!
My calculated average after 94,841 miles is 48.0 MPG. The average on GreenHybrid is 47.5 MPG.
So using 40 MPG to represent what Prius will be getting when Volt becomes available is simply not right. Try 50 MPG.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:58 am)Using GXT’s figures the Prius costs $21,100 plus $15,000 (EV module), so if the Volt comes in at $36,100 things are even, more or less.
Oil is a twilight industry, so EV’s will take care of themselves.
$6.00 gas is still cheap so why stop there?
I also think any EV will hold it’s resale value better than a ICE version.
BTW: don’t forget to allow for a doubling in the price of Electricity over the next 5 years.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (2:02 am)>> First, the Volt is not a hybrid, it is an electric car with a gas range extender. If one drives 40 miles or less per day, no fuel will be used.
Volt will never need to perform routine housekeeping?
I wonder how GM would prove to the EPA that the engine will comply with emission regulations without forcing operation from time to time. Vapor components & fluids age whether they get used or not.
Study the regulations. You’re in for a surprise. Sorry.
In other words, just accept the "series" hybrid identifier.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (3:41 am)one word,
Telsa…
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Mar 28th, 2008 (3:41 am)one word,
Tesla…
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Mar 28th, 2008 (5:55 am)Letting the Prius fuel economy (40mpg in 2011? No way) and price alone, you forget the availability of the $11K you save if you buy the Prius. I can invest it at a reasonably secure 5%/year and generate $550 in income/year from divicends, which helps pay the fuel bill. The real difference is therefore about $300/year, at which rate the Volt breaks even with the Prius in about 30 years.
Chevy has to get the price down.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (6:43 am)Check out the video of Lyle at GMnext’s "Our Thoughts / Why the Volt?"….
http://www.gmnext.com/Details/Thoughts.aspx?id=a787e3e9-30db-4730-af0a-f175a17f68b8#Top
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Mar 28th, 2008 (6:54 am)Lyle:
Are you trying to start flame posts here?
There are so many variables to what is being discussed, to almost make this impossible to compare.
You used a mid-range price for the Prius. GXT used the absolute base price. Someone else could have used a maxed out price.
There is no way to know what the Volt will cost at this time. You could have used any price between $28K and $48K, which have all be released as the sales price by executives at GM.
There is no way to know the price of gasoline over the next 10 years.
Playing with numbers like this in comparison to two different types of vehicles, is a waste of time, especially when we have no idea what the other manufacturers will have available in late 2010 or 2011.
And it may only matter to drivers in CA, FL, and Washington, DC anyway…. And I guess maybe Australia, or whomever else Mr. Lutz happens to be talking to on any particular day. I get the feeling that if he would get interviewed by "Punjab Car Today", that he would tell them "We expect to have production Volts available in your area by early 2011".
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Mar 28th, 2008 (6:55 am)For those who think the Volt don’t make sense, wake up!! Sure the Volt might be expensive to start with, that’s to be expected. In history there is always doubters who can not see any further than their nose. This is a normal part of the course. The Volt is the start of a new revolution for cars. Just think, batteries can only get better and not far in the future, we’ll be able to do most of our driving w/o using gasoline!! It might get to a point in which the "range extender (ICE) will no longer be needed. I’m all excited about the Volt. Keep up the good work GM!!!
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Mar 28th, 2008 (7:02 am)PLEASE REMEMBER: A new forum thread is now available for everyone to RANK the top 10 or 20 questions not yet answered (or not fully answered) by GM at VoltNation or elsewhere. Go to….. http://www.gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?t=175There you can rank these questions I’m calling the "Lutz List" from most important to least important. The deadline is Wed, April 2. (If the above link doesn’t work, copy/paste it into your browser’s URL address window instead.) ….ONLY 5 DAYS REMAIN TO RANK THESE QUESTIONS!
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Mar 28th, 2008 (7:49 am)John1701a
Ah, someone else thinks there are more than a few Shenanigans going on here.
1) Where did a 35k figure come for a Volt. Today it is $48,000 unless Lutz recants.
2) What lousy pack is this guy using? The EnergyCS pack with the Valence battery (9 KWh) will run a Prius for 50 – 60 miles at 150 MPG. $12,000 is the right number, but that includes a battery thermal controller and the battery and fits in with the spare.
3) This tandem is available today, Volts may be available in 31 months if someone doesn’t kill/crush them too!
4) If the possible Warranty implications (EnergyCS says there are none) bother you, buy a 3 yr old Prius for $18,500 (used in Atlanta). Save the world today!!!
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Mar 28th, 2008 (8:21 am)Given the volatile energy prices over the last 10 years, I’m not convinced anyone can make an accurate economic analysis.
A professor I had in college graduated with an engineering degree during the depression (1930’s). One story he told us was of his first job, where he and his company completed an economic analysis for a municipality on whether to use copper or cast iron for drainage pipe in their projects. Copper needed replacement every 20 years, where cast iron would last the lifetime of the building/drainage system.
The economic analysis favored using lower cost copper, and replacing it every 20 years. However, the town fathers didn’t care, and opted for cast iron.
The moral of the story was, what was then the wrong decision, turned out to be the right decision. After the depression ended, labor and material prices escalated, so copper replacement would have been extremely expensive. Over time, the economics changed.
For Prius vs. Volt, the key will probably be the relative cost of gasoline to electricity. Since 1998, the price of gasoline has increased 350%! My electric rates have increased by maybe 40%. One member indicates that he provides most or all or his electricity with solar. I don’t think it is that simple to make your own gasoline.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (8:29 am)#6 GXT,
I think the main point here is that our country and its population shouldn’t always be looking at what makes "economic sense" as it pertains to the short term. There are far reaching benefits to having this car widely adopted that can’t be measured in the individuals pocket, at least initially.
For starters, how about not having to have so many military bases in the middle east, and the associated loss of life? Sure, we can make a half-baked case for Iraq, but there’s a lot more military bases out there, and it is to protect our own interests (sadly).
Second, if you can take all that money we put in foreign pockets for oil, and try to keep that money in the country, there will be far reaching economic benefits, not to mention a significant reduction of the federal trade deficit.
There’s many other benefits, and I agree that they are certainly longer term than short term. Even on my second point, for maximum benefit our country would have to take a lot of the money we spend occupying other countries, and focus some initiatives on creating high-tech manufacturing processes in our own country so our batteries don’t come from overseas either.
Regardless, isn’t it about time our country starts taking the long-term view? I’d prefer not to see the dollar become worthless by the time I have to retire.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (8:33 am)Most of us who have been supporters of the VOLT still feel the basic premise is superb. Probably better than any other short term solution out there for energy independence. What has tempered enthusiasm is the fact that GM so poorly misjudged the cost of this thing. What was once hyped as a potentially affordable solution to America’s addiction to oil has now suddenly become only accessible to the wealthy. The rest of us will be stuck with 25mpg petroleum based Cobalts and Aveos. The one hope is that the few who will purchase the VOLT will help push the technology down into the mainstream and thus to an affordable level for the rest of us. Perhaps that is the way it was always intended to be.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (8:35 am)Everyone will have different reasons to buy this car and payback time is not the only factor. Money, environment, new tech=cool factor all add into it. Not to mention that it’s a domestic made car by GM. I’m from Ohio and I know many people waiting for this car because frankly, I would rather ride my Trek bike for the 100miles a day I drive than drive a Toyota.
I just returned from South Korea 2 weeks ago and was in Japan over the new year and so many of these people want Hummers, Mustangs, Chevys it’s not funny. The governments just have huge tariffs on American cars there. A new base mustang can run over 40K in Japan. Some hate Hondas and Toyotas but love Nissans…just like anywhere else. But frankly Toyota is kind of considered the old man’s boring car over there.
Nonetheless, my hope is that this will put American cars back in American driveways that are being built by Americans.
90% of cars in Japan are Japanese, 90% of cars in South Korea are South Korean, 90% of cars in Germany are German………So why can’t Americans have faith in themselves and stop selling their country. I remember a new special a few years back that said every plant worker in a US auto plant for the big 3 supports 9 other jobs. And we wonder why our economy is failing?
I’m a foreigner to the US (Ironically from a major oil producing country in OPEC) and my family drives 5 GM cars and 1 Chrysler…..this is where I live and I must support it. I want a future here for my family and children. I guess I could always move and get a job in Japan if that happens, it was rather nice there.
Put that on top of the obvious cost and environmental factors and this is why the Volt must survive and GM must do whatever it can to make it happen! This will make Chevy’s "American Revolution" truly American and it finally have a product worth a revolt!
Of course…that is just my personal opinion.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (8:59 am)"The real question is, is cost-savings the only reason for wanting a Volt?"
The REAL question should be "Is cost-savings the MAIN reason for wanting a Volt?"
That’s a very personal buying decision and as for me… YES!
Why? Because I’m not on an “ego trip” and I can’t save the world by becoming “car payment poor”! But I can spend less on travel while doing the right thing.
If the Volt cost exceeds $30K, I’ll convert an older car to electric or I’ll buy the first highway capable (70mph) electric car under $20K for my daily commuting. http://www.metricmind.com/ A 70 mile electric range will handle over 92% of my daily driving and I have AAA in case I screw-up.
I’ll use my gas car or public transportation for those occasional long trips. Of course I will pay for the gas, insurance and maintenance on my standby gas car with the money I save on fuel with my electric car.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (9:02 am)Before you start making arguments either way, put a cost estimate for Environmental cost, National security, a number on human rights which are being violated by the oil rich nations.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (9:16 am)#20 banjoez,
While it is tempting to judge the Volts costs based on predictions and guesses from 2nd hand info (the 48K comes from Business Week unverified) and I’ve done that too, lets all keep in mind that A. No official price has been set. B. GM is a multibillion dollar company, if they decide at the 11th hour to say they’re going to offer a deal and start it at 29 K, they can make that happen.
Let’s just hold off on drawing any hard and fast conclusions on price this early. In the videos the GM guys were adamant they would not price the Volt out of the marketplace, I suspect there are deals yet to be offered to the non 40K buying public…
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Mar 28th, 2008 (9:18 am)I appreciate the discussion topic.
I will make a similar analysis, using real data, when I make my next auto purchase. Comparing future vehicles involves a high degree of speculation. It is a fun exercise and helps pass the time until we can make a real comparison.We will make our car purchases using some balance of emotion and logic. The masses will go "green" if it benefits them financially. I think GM knows this. So, I wouldn’t fall prey to GM’s price posturing – GM is just putting out feelers. None of their price statements are set in stone. GM is already trying to build a market for the Volt and it is finding an eager public. It is easy to sell to wealthy enviros. But, penetrating the market and the consciousness (a la the Prius) seems to be where the money is at. If GM can build many Volts and sell them at a profit, I’m sure that’s what they’ll do. But, GM needs to do it wisely. The initial Volts need to make a good first impression. They cannot be seen as a niche vehicle only avaliable to the wealthy – that is not the concept. So, GM will price the vehicle to establish its reputation as something Joe American can afford.
Typically, I lean cynical. In this case, I feel like something great can finally happen with respect to auto energy efficiency. I will wait to see what actually develops. If the Volt turns out to be too expensive, I will have lost nothing. I’m sure a low-cost plug-in Prius will be avaliable
if the Volt doesn’t fulfill its concept. Until then, its all hype.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (9:24 am)Just a few points. Currently the next generation Prius is expected in the spring of 2009. It will get about 55 miles to the gallon, be able to drive at 60 MPH in electric only mode, and have an electric mode range of about 7 miles. The decrease in HSD cost will be offset by the increase in battery cost so the MSRP is expected to remain around $23,000. Now the PHEV, expected for fleet sale in 2010, and retail in 2011 will have a bigger battery and more electrical equipment (charging and charge control stuff), so its price is expected to be above $23,000. If it goes from a 2.6 KWH battery (expected in the 2009 model) to 11.6 KWH to provide 8 KWH of usable capacity, and the cost per KWH is $750, then the expected cost of the PHEV Prius in 2011 will be about $30,000.
Bottom line as was dryly observed above, Chevy needs to get the price down.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (9:34 am)The Volt at $25k would probably make it the most demanded car in the county. I doubt the Prius has anything to worry about though. It will be improved and then the Volt will look less attractive.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (9:43 am)This is a silly discussion at this point. We can not make comparisons to a Prius or anything else. We do not have the 2010 prices for these cars. We do not know what gas will cost in 2010. But I have read some good comedy in this thread!
Assumptions are irrelevant in a fluid situation like we have here. We can only look at ourselves in the mirror in 2010 and decide if we will buy a Volt if it is available. I can say, that based on what I have read and heard and researched myself, the answer is yes. Today. It may change in the future, depending on circumstances. I just hope not.
I can say without question that I support GM. I would never buy a Toyota, Honda, Kia, BMW, etc…. I’m just not interested. I don’t have to explain why. I also would rather ride a bike than drive any of these.
I want to:(in no particular order)
1. Lower my gasoline bill.
2. Do something that may improve our stewardship of the planet.
3. Introduce my children to more responsible solutions.
4. Support American car makers.
5. Still drive a fun and attractive car.
I don’t want or need to rank these for anyone.
GM is trying something very different here. Should we expect everything to go like clockwork?
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Mar 28th, 2008 (9:50 am)This entire cost/benefit analysis is an exercise in futility. When is the last time ANYBODY purchased a car because it maximized their bottom line? It doesn’t happen. Cars are purchased on EMOTION, not logic.
For example: I have a need (ok, a want…) to drag trailers around that weight between 8 and 12 thousand pounds. I do this 4-8 times per year. A 12 year old regular cab 3/4 ton 2-wheel drive truck with a gas motor and a manual transmission would safely accomplish this and cost a couple thousand dollars. What am I pulling my trailer with? A 40K diesel powered extended cab 4×4. Makes absolutely no sense from a financial perspective, but I did it anyways because of the emotional desire to have a nice comfortable vehicle that is far more capable than just the basic need.
I would argue that anybody who buys a new car, regardless of size or style, is not making a logical purchase. The availability of good quality used vehicles for less than half the cost of new automatically rules out ANY new vehicle purchase for ANY reason!
Now somebody build me an impractical, unreasonable electric car so I can pay too much for it!
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Mar 28th, 2008 (10:06 am)I guess it’s safe to say that opinions are opinions, and that’s that. While I applaud the figures, at the core it is still speculation. No one here, at GM or anywhere else, for that matter has a clue as to final pricing, any more than anyone can accurately predict the cost of unleaded or electricity in 2010. If so, you wouldn’t be here you’d be in some investment firm making 6 figures or more. So figures at this stage, while nice to theorize are irrelovent. BusinessWeak offers conjecture and the public bites (I guess Britney Spears IS a good parent after all!). Unless you work for the GM and have the invoice costs and production/tooling documents infront of you, you don’t know jack about the price. Heck, I doubt Bob Lutz has a concrete idea right now-and he sees the Volt practically every day.
It’s not just a possible price that moves people for the Volt-it’s the technology and what it can do. I love all cars and I will respectfully give Toyota credit for their achievement. The Prius does what it was intended to do, which is what made it successful. GM made the Corvette to do what it was intended to do, which has made IT successful (DOB 1953 and it’s still here, getting 28 mpg, no less.)
There will probably be incentives, but all the same there will be incentives for renewable energy. I cannot say how the cost of Volt ownership will totally affect me at this point due to the fact that the solar collectors have not yet been installed on my roof. So until 2010 and about 210 kWh later I’ll reserve judgement and wait…
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Mar 28th, 2008 (10:13 am)You know lithium ion battery technology isn’t rocket science…although I’m sure Nasaman can confirm even NASA has trouble building a large array Li-Ion battery. But the basic cells are churned out by the millions each day in factories all over the world. Once the development costs of the Volt’s battery pack are amortized by the early adopters, the cost will drop like a rock. Now you add a $1,000 pack to a Cobalt and the Volt will make great economic sense.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (10:14 am)PS- Props to Ron (post # 29) As an industrial fabrication engineer and welder for the past 13+ years, a $3000 Ford Ranger would’ve done an adequate, fiscally responsible job, but emotion lead me to a Silverado SS. Sure it was a bit of overkill, but it served it’s purpose. It’s purpose was to satisfy me. That is the same logic behimd my wanting a Volt. It satisfies me, and in as much, that choice does not require my having to justify it to anyone, unless they will be making some gas/ethanol/electricity payments for me.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (10:50 am)The volt will be faster and better looking. The national secuirity implications are the real kicker for me.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:04 am)#21 Kushwail:
Well said. Thanks. I keep recommending Chalmers Johnson’s books. He explains your observations about 90% Japanese cars in Japan, et al, in painful detail. We are indeed shooting ourselves in the foot.
I got so frustrated with the 48K price trial balloon and the Volt schedule that I priced ot Priuses yesterday. We are now using about 40 gallons a month in our Impala SS, having cut back a lot on driving it. At that rate, I figure that the payback on a new Prius will take about 20 years.
As guilty as I feel driving around in a 15 mpg city car in this day and age, I guess we will just grit our teeth and keep driving it unless or until the General comes up with something we can’t resist.
BTW, at the rate my wife is driving the Impala, she would do about 95% of her driving without the range extender ever firing up. I hope that we can remember to put the Sta-Bil in the gas!
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:06 am)OK, enough already.
1) Business Week is a responsible US Publication that has not issued a retraction and Mr. Lutz has NOT set the record straight. You GM workers, paid Union lackeys, marketing folks or whoever you are, buzz off.
2) The responsible Mr Lutz also is quoted here as saying and most people at least agree that a $40,000 price includes No profit. Can’t we believe a GM VP?
3) My Toyota is made in the good old USA by American workers in Frankfort, KY. You bash your fellow citizens.
26. Van, thank you for an insightful comparison. If anything gets a Volt out the door for around 30K it will be competition.
Finally the Volt is not free driving for 40 miles, it is on average costing roughly like a car that gets about 120 MPG for comparison purposes unless you have a windfarm or photovoltaics, or make your own biodiesel. My electric bill has never read $0.00 due!
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:20 am)Comparing the Prius and the Volt on the basis of economics (which for the Volt are to a very large part, uncertain, we all know) is like comparing a Ferrari and a Yugo on the basis of passenger room. The Volt is much more valuable than the Prius in ways that have nothing to do with fuel costs. The main attractions of the Volt (and Prius) are their abilities to reduce carbon emissions and gasoline depdencies, and in that respect, the Prius isn’t even playing in the same ballpark as the Volt. Throwing aside silly estimates of plug-in MPG based on nonrepresentative and unscientific "samples" of driving (which can totally distort results) that the unscientific Kannellos employed, we will base our figures on the only data that is relevant and unimpeachable – the DOT statistics on commuting travel mileages. Commuting requires more than half the total consumption of gasoline and is a very relevant, if not totally comprehensive look at what the Volt can achieve.
The data shows :
1) that a typical group of 100 US commuters currently logs 2700 miles every day commuting and used 159 gallons of gasoline
2) That if this group all drove Prius cars, they would require about 68 gallons of fuel
3) if every driver drove a Volt and NONE were able to recharge at work, they would achieve 285 MPG and require 9.5 gallons of gasoline, or 7 times less fuel than a Prius.
4) if only 1/4th of those Volt commuters could recharge at work, they would achieve 395MPG and require only 6.8 gallons of gas, or 10 times less gas than a Prius.
5) if 1/2 could recharge at work, they would achieve 569 MPG and require less than 5 gallons of gas, or about 14 times less that the Prius
The Volt and the Prius exist solely to avoid emissions and gasoline (there are plenty of cars that are the size of the Prius that are massively superior in terms of simple economics). If one worried solely about economics, no one would ever buy a Prius. Or a Volt.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:22 am)One incentive for me is the eventual death of Big Oil..
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:22 am)Hey Ron, I believe that Tesla has built that "impractical, unreasonable electric car so I can pay too much for it!" that you are looking for.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:23 am)#34 noel park
Agreed. I have done a reasonable amount of travel overseas for work. I know a lot of people scattered around the world. When we get in these type of discussions, it is amazing what is revealed and what their opinions of national pride are.
It is almost universal that their governments and their people put their domestic goods first. Simple, support the homeland, even if it inconveniences you a little. They respect other foriegn goods, even envy them somewhat, but they don’t buy them. Not exclusively, but 90% sounds about right. Needs outweigh wants. National pride is truely important to them. That is so different to how we view the marketplace in the US.
Few Americans care where something is made, who designed it, etc. as long as it gets us what we want. As cheaply as possible. We read magazines to tell us what to buy, what is the "highest rated", so we feel like we made the logical decision. National pride doesn’t even enter into the equation for most of us.
OK, enough of a downer! The Volt may give many of us something to be proud about again. Maybe rekindle a little national pride. I hope GM is clever when marketing this car. They have an opportunity here like no other domestic maker has had since the model T.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:34 am)If the price of the Volt is going to be stuck around $35-$45 thousand dollars, then GM is going to have to make it into a high end luxury car in order for it to really appeal to anyone.
If they want to use the Volt to directly compete with the Prius they need to GET THE PRICE DOWN!!! There most immediate action should be to clamp down on the price rumors until more solid information is available. Having speculation that this car could cost nearly $50,000 is really going to take the wind out of the Volt’s sale years before it will be available to the public.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:53 am)The question: "The real question is, is cost-savings the only reason for wanting a Volt?"
If cost-savings were the only factor in buying a new car, there would be many alternatives to the Volt. For me, the technical achievement of the E-Flex system, pride in American engineering, an appealing design as well as potential cost savings motivates me. Since I always purchase my new vehicles from an American auto maker, to be able to buy a very competitive fuel saving, environmental friendly, American vehicle makes it even better. Go GM! Go Volt!
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:08 pm)Please dont talk about gas at $6 in the u.s. Yesterday I putted 10.56 gallons of gas and payed $9.452 a gallon. I live in Europe and I can say that this prices are unbearable. If gas in the U.S. get to $6, I’m gonna have to buy a horse or smthg like that!XD
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:10 pm)#21 Ksuhwail
Yes, well put.
#7 GTX “It is destined to be a low volume product and therefore will have a relatively small impact."
I totally disagree. The reason the Volt was put under Chevy is that Chevy is GM’s high volume group. I have seen numerous times in print that GM expects to sell hundreds of thousands of Volts. The Volt will be the most advanced high production car on the planet, and I predict that demand will explode! (it’s already overflowing!)
Further, everyone I explain about the Volt, also wants to buy one.
There are only 2 things to stop the exploding demand: Pricing too high, and early problems that sound really bad when repeated. Years ago the Prius bubble was being deflated because of a stalling problem where you had to be toed. It turns out only 33 cars had to be toed (about .0004%), due to a software bug. That was several years after introduction in the US, which, I believe, diminished the problem.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:27 pm)When you have American companies shipping off US jobs and technology overseas unabated and a government that seems to have little interest in tackling or planning for it’s own nation’s economic and energy security problems it is somewhat difficult to have National pride.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:29 pm)1st Lyle shame on you for now saying the Volt is not a hybrid when up to a couple of months ago your own description properly called it what is is… a "series" battery electric hybrid. We all understand why GM, who also used to call the same design in their 1998 prototype range extended EV1 a "series hybrid", much prefers the also accurate but more marketing saavy term "range extended EV", to avoid confusion with parallel hybrid designs (Prius).
Lyle, you also need to be careful in your use of words… when you say "no fuel will be used" if you always drive 40 miles or less between recharging…. that’s neelessly deceptive. Of course fuel is needed, but the important things are that no liquid fuel is used… and that the fuel that is used (to generate the electricity at a power plant) is used much more efficiently (especially if the source is a clean renewable).
In any case, I hate to keep having to repeat the same thing over and over again…. but once again… you can’t just look at the cost of fuel (gasoline, E85, or electricity) to determine the pay back period…. you have to look at the total cost of ownership over some period of time….
A pure EV has anywhere between 70-90% fewer moving parts than a conventional vehicle with an internal combustion engine. If most of your driving in the Volt is only using the battery (ie. driving 40 miles of less between recharges of the battery)
so that the "range extender" (onboard generator set) is hardly used, in theory you should see significant savings in how little servicing the Volt needs, maint. costs, and repairs! Not to mention your time to go to the dealer or a garage for those things which is hard to put a price on. Think about it, no more oil changes every 3,000 miles, At 60,000 miles that has to be a savings of 20 trips, and at least $20 a pop, $400. No engine coolent changes, air filter, spark plugs, etc
The Prius on the other hand has MORE moving parts than a conventional vehicle with an internal combustion engine. It’s also much more complex. I’d have to imagine it cost even more than a conventional vehicle to keep going.
That said, of course the problem is that lots of folks, while it would likely cost them less to own the Volt over the life of the car, just can’t afford the higher up front cost
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:53 pm)Why does anybody choose car A over car B? A big part of the equation is handling and performance. (Otherwise, why are impractical sports cars like Ferraris coveted?)
Frankly, the Prius is a horrible car in terms of ride, handling, and performance. Objectively, it accelerates slower and has less skidpad grip than a typical MINIVAN.
This is an enormous opportunity for GM to differentiate the Volt. Sure, okay, everybody knows it’ll save the Earth and save you some gas money, but if it can also accelerate in the same ballpark as the Cobalt SS (5.7s 0-60) then you’re really going to get some consumer attention.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (12:59 pm)#40 MetrologyFirst:
Thanks for your kind words.
#45 banjoez:
I completely agree, but I think that part of the point is that the national pride MetrologyFirst refers to deters corporations and governments from doing exactly what you so correctly condemn.
Plus I think that the national pride contains a large component of national pragmatism. For example, anyone who doubts that our ongoing and ever increasing balance of payments defecit hemorrhage has a lot to do with our current economic cratering is living in a dream world. We used to see bumper stickers that said "Buy American – The Job You Save May Be Your Own". Some people in those other countries are aware enough to understand the truth of this.
If we continue on our present self destructive course, I believe that we, or our children and grandchildren for sure, will see the "American Dream" recede into some sort of permanent "second world" status. If we’re lucky.
Having been chastized for interjecting politics here in the past, I will just close by saying that anyone who does not believe that the "3 Trillion Dollar War" is part and parcel of this whole sorry scenario is similarly living in a dream world.
Finally, Kushwail’s brilliant comment was at #22, not #21. Sorry.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:01 pm)I’ve heard the commodity oil market described as one big feeding trough where all the oil in the world is dumped. It’s more or less priced according to supply and demand … but you never know what shenanigans are going on behind the scenes with OPEC and the big oil companies with the supply of crude and the amount of gas being refined and so forth.
We have no control over the fact that there is a growing middle class in China and India and they want all the creature comforts that we do … like cars, trucks, and SUVs if they can afford them. When they get them, they are going to be pigs at the oil trough devouring oil just as much as us Americans do.
These new middle class drivers in China and India could end up being HUGE …. we’re talking half a billion new drivers out there maybe … soon. There’s going to be some MAJOR oil chugging going on in the next 20 years and the oil companies aren’t going to be able to find Saudi Arabia sized monster oil fields all over the place. It just ain’t likely to happen.
The bottom line is the amount of money we have to pay for gas can go up, up, up for various reasons and there’s not a damn thing we can do about it. We’re going to be resenting the price of gas going up. It’s kind of like taxes going up or some Mafia gangster coming by to get more "protection money" from you or something. People don’t like not having a choice. America and most of the world is ADDICTED to oil. It’s like oxygen and food and water …. gasoline is not so easy to just "do without" for most people.
That’s what is great about the new electric cars and hybrids like the Volt coming out in the next few years. We’re going to have a lot more choice when it comes to this product called gasoline. We’ll at least not have to use as much of it until 100% electric cars and hydrogen fuel cells become affordable and practical. People loved GM’s first cars when they came out in the early 1900’s because they wanted an alternative to Henry Ford’s Model T cars … which you could only get in black I hear.
The new alternative to this product called gasoline is going to be good ole electricity … a much more efficient and inexpensive "fuel" to propel your vehicle. Edison and Tesla are awesome dudes for bringing it to the world. Imagine the world without it. Pretty bleak. Edison invented D.C. power. Tesla invented A.C. power. I’m glad the first 100% electric sports car is named after Tesla. It’s a good name for a car company anyway. The logo for the Tesla looks good on the front of the car.
Soon, we won’t have to just pay more and more and more for gas and just sit back and take it. Simply buy yourself a new series hybrid like the Volt and laugh your arse off as you pass gas stations on your way to work in 2010. You won’t have to be a stooge to OPEC, Middle East oil shieks, and the oil companies if you don’t want to.
I bet a lot of people will buy the Volt for reasons like this alone. Helping the environment by limiting CO2 emissions will only make them feel even better about the whole thing. There will be plenty of people who will want to buy the Volt for environmental reasons though. Clean technology and "going green" is getting more and more popular every year … and why wouldn’t you? Green tech often ends up saving you a lot of greenbacks you know. Everyone is for that.
Sure, the first hybrids like the Volt might be more expensive than most people are hoping for, but they’ll eventually come down in 5-10 years …. back into the $20-30k range. That’s just the way it is with the latest and greatest technologies.
The auto industry has to build more factories and then you get the efficiency gains from mass production, etc. That’s what’s happening with HDTVs. The same thing is probably going to happen with the latest and greatest hybrids and pure electric cars like the Tesla. Gotta wait for those "economies of scale" to kick in before they pass the savings down to us customers. It’ll happen. Hopefully, it will happen pretty fast. There’s a lot of competition in the automobile industry. Competition definitely brings prices down over time. Clearly, hybrids and pure electric cars have a bright future so there will surely be adequate if not stiff competition.
If some auto companies don’t "get in the game" with hybrids they are going to be watching the other companies score touchdown after touchdown on them …. game over for them. They’ll go the way of the dinosaur. They have to evolve …. or else.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:02 pm)#30 Ron
#33 Firefly
"When is the last time ANYBODY purchased a car because it maximized their bottom line? It doesn’t happen. Cars are purchased on EMOTION, not logic."
#33 Firefly
"Prpos to Ron…"
Your generalization doesn’t hold up. My purchases consider a heavy "logic" factor. I drive a ‘92 Honda Civic. I am the original owner. I can afford to "upgrade" to something bigger, more powerful, shinier, and more whizbang. I choose not to for "bottom-line" reasons. My car doesn’t do want I want, but it does what I need. When I need a new car, emotion won’t overshadow my choice.
I know there are a lot of people that think like you. I see them on the road all over the place. The car manufactutreres thrive on your business. However, please be aware that not everyone thinks like you.
I hope the Volt is a good, logical choice. If I can buy something else that meets my needs, but costs a lot less over its useful life, that is what I’ll buy. I’ll consider the break even point in my decision. I want to support the US and the environment, but I need to support my family. If GM can go green and save me some green, I’m there.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:05 pm)#43 Europeguy:
Thanks for the reality check. $9.452/gallon???? OMG!
We learn so much from our friends in Europe, Jean-Charles Jacquemin for another example. Thanks for being such a valuable resource and source of information.
#1 – #47 All Of The Above:
This is another brilliant and thought provoking thread. Thanks to all of you for your brilliant and well thought out comments. What a resource for GM, if only they are paying attention. Well done.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:16 pm)#50 ThomdBhomb
You are obviously brilliant. Too bad you can’t go back and edit your posts to correct spelling errors.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:18 pm)Noel, thank you again for bringing up Chalmers Johnson.
I bet most people who lament the state of industry and manufacturing in the US don’t realize that their own government played an active role in exporting it all to Asia over the past ~40 years.
Unfortunately the American people have once again voted against their own best interests by not nominating Ron Paul. At least we have one candidate (Barak) who is at least willing to consider negotiations with other countries instead of sanctions and bombs.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:30 pm)Lets pass a little time sorta off topic . People are talking about an advantage of the Volt being the elimination of ICE associated maintenance costs . In a pat ont the back for GM , my ‘03 Bonniville has only had a minor water leak in 80 , 000 plus miles . I ‘ m still on my first set of brakes . I have used Mobil 1 synthetic oil in my last 3 GM cars and change it once per year or @ about 10 , 000 miles and keep cars till about 150 , 000 miles and never had a any indication of increased wear or increased oil use . I have never changed spark plugs and fuel economy has not slipped , so you ‘ d have a tough time convincing me that ICE costs avoidance is an issue or that a fear of lost service revenue has slowed developement of electrics .
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:47 pm)#37 Kent,
What type of pro GM math is that? You say 39.7 Prius mpg
The real EPA mileage chart says for 2008:
MIDSIZE CARS
Toyota Prius automatic 48/45
Nissan Versa manual 26/31
My Volt math for this site:
Avg recharge cost US $1.00 worth of electricity (recharging is NOT 100% efficient either)
Range = 40 Miles
If gas was used this would be about 1/3 gal to 1/4 gal
or at todays prices yielding ~ 120 – 160 mpg equivalent.
Multinational like GM, Toyota, Honda, Ford all build cars where they are consumed. Many here advocate selling the Volt in Australia, and elsewhere in the world. However if someone says how does this Volt compare with say Toyota we get berated for being unAmerican, not seeing the global picture, and so on.
In some of the analysis we have here, no one seems to be able to explain why a car with 70-90% fewer moving parts may end up costing over 2 times more. Does the battery cost $20,000 – 30,000? The hand powered Lithium Ion tool batteries only cost 2-3X. Isn’t it time to actually check the Emperor for clothes?
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:48 pm)John and his reliable Bonniville…. you can’t look at single cases and globalize them (logic 101). There are folks who can smoke a pack of cancer sticks a day and still live to be 90+, and folks who can shoot herion and not become addicted. Even folks who have been shot with a bullet in the head and not only lived but have no side effects. Always exceptions to the rule. I always get a kick out of folks who don’t wear their seat belt because there are a minority of accidents where getting thrown from the vehicle may actually save your life.
I’m a software engineer… and the more parts you have, the more chance one of those parts will fail. Ask the same of an EE or a ME.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (1:55 pm)Al, LiIon batteries for power tools are only 2-3 times as expensive because they are a mature technology…. LiIon batteries in a large format with a chemistry to meet the demands of an EV is relatively new technology.
I’m not trying to justify the price the Volt may end up being, just that power tools vs. EV’s is not comparing apples to apples (at least not the same type of apple… there are some apples better for baking, and some better for cider, and some better for eating, etc)
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Mar 28th, 2008 (2:20 pm)57. Jeff
My understanding is that it is the same old A123 chemistry. Right! Their real daytime job is making Li-Ion hand tool batteries. Basically they own a lot of that market. If they were public I would have bought their stock a long time ago.
I never did understand why GM did not pick EnerDel…
Valence actually has had the large format Auto battery for a while too. Also, Tesla is using A123… If A123 only had an IPO.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (2:41 pm)John 1701a ;
What has been your experience with respect to maintenance / repair ?
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Mar 28th, 2008 (3:00 pm)#53 Tom:
Thanks.
Assuming we had to do anything in the first place, my strategy for Iraq was to bomb them with $100 bills. Just send over the C-17s and dump the bundles out the back doors. My theory was:
1. It’s hard to hate somebody who is dumping U.S. $100 bills on you (maybe it’s Euros now, but U.S. currency was pretty good then).
2. Nobody gets hurt.
3. It’s WAAAAAY cheaper than war.
Alas, Don Rumsfeld thought I was goofy.
My brother said that Levis would be better, but I prefer cash.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (3:14 pm)#60, Noel:
Well, first, we encouraged the Iraqis to rebel in 1991 and then didn’t give them the military support we promised. Umpteen thousand Iraqis died and many were exiled.
Then, after Desert Storm, we imposed the harshest trade sanctions in history on them for the better part of a decade to remove Saddam from power. Well, Saddam wasn’t removed, but we did succeed in plunging many Iraqis into abject poverty and many died from starvation and lack of medical supplies/care.
If I was Iraqi, I would hate Americans with every fiber of my being, and that would even be before the current invasion and occupation. But most Americans are still in the dark about why we’re hated across the middle east. (And in many parts of Asia.)
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Mar 28th, 2008 (3:17 pm)Oh, I also forgot to mention that the US gov’t was actively supporting Saddam throughout the 80s with weapons, intelligence, etc. to fight Iran. We sold/gave him the weapons he was using on the Kurds, an act which we love to complain about today.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (3:29 pm)What happened? Is this the Volt forum? Yes! Yes, it is! What happened to it? What was the discussion topic? Oh yeah, comparing financial benefit of Volt and Prius…Focus, people!
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Mar 28th, 2008 (3:31 pm)#61 & 62 Tom:
Yeah, and then Pastor Wright gets blasted for talking about "America’s chickens coming home to roost".
At least we protected our "vital national interest" by keeping the price of oil from going up though. Didn’t we?
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Mar 28th, 2008 (3:37 pm)Estero we can drive together to get our first volts. Call me in Fort Myers I am definately a fan. 410-8826
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Mar 28th, 2008 (3:49 pm)#63 thomdbhomb:
Well how about comparing the financial benefit of the Volt vs. importing more oil? The Volt is even a national security issue, considering the geoploitical role of oil on the world stage. Everything which Tom has cited has flowed directly from our thirst and greed for oil.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (4:52 pm)First of all, Chevy has to decide what market they want to compete against, or have the best chance of making the most profit. If you notice, there is almost a car for every wage bracket. ( no one is entierly left out)
Right now, I think they are still not sure where the Volt will accomplish this.
The problem is, it is almost to late to be the only game in town. Especially since others are already out with some form of this techinology, and more coming by 2010. So, just where do they fit, when the others are also adjusting to this demand.
I have been researching other sites on the web, to see who is doing what. If you haven’t searched for whats coming out very soon, you will be shocked.
No matter what we will have in 2010, from that point on more and more new ways of moving a car without oil, will be changeing faster than the computer did a decade ago.
Mr. Lutz said this is his last hoorra, I am sure he will have a very comfortable retirement, and what happends to the Volt could only hurt his ego. I hope his ego is huge.
Personally, I have always owned Chevys and GM products. I have a total of 6 now. But what ever comes out first, I am sure will change this for alot of us.
We cannot keep sending billions over to our enemys for oil and only getting fumes for our dollars.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (4:59 pm)Here is the financial decision making problem that I see:
We were all kind of hoping that Lyle was going to have some pull to get the names on this site’s wish list pushed to the front of the line for purchasing a Volt in late 2010.
I think we have all had the realization that it is not going to happen.
GM has put in place the idea of a "limited distribution area", but they have not said how long that it will last. Is it for one month, one quarter, the first full sales year, or until they release Gen-2 of the Volt? That is a very important piece of information!
So most of us are now in a position of not knowing when we will be able to buy this vehicle, and we have no idea what it will cost.
So how do you really do any financial calculations on when to purchase a car? If I can not purchase a Volt or some other range extended electric vehicle until 2012 or maybe even later, should I go out and buy something else that gets 40+ mpg to get me through the next 4 or 5 years? After all, if gas does peak up to $5.00 / gal, the cost of the higher mileage ICE based vehicles is going to also spike, because demand will go up.
When the plan was to change over in less than three years, the decision was easy. Stick with what I have. Now it is not so simple, and the problem is that we are not being given the information needed to make a sound financial decision!
And there is one other point I would like to comment on. Many people here keep talking about how the prices of the new technology cars will drop over time, like DVD players. How much has the MSRP of the Prius come down over the last 7 years or so? Actually, have you ever seen the MSRP of any car go down from one year to the next? And I am not talking about some end of life model, where they can not sell them, so they dump them at fire sale pricing………..
And I do not think that moving to FL just to buy a Volt makes much sense either!
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Mar 28th, 2008 (5:00 pm)>> The Prius on the other hand has MORE moving parts than a conventional vehicle with an internal combustion engine. It’s also much more complex.
That was proven false years ago.
Please study the PSD. You’ll clearly see it is no where near as complicated as a traditional automatic transmission.
Speading the complexity misconception degrades credibility.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (5:15 pm)#68 Jim I:
I think that you have summarized very well the agonizing decision process which many of us are facing. Adding to that is the problem for GM loyalists that they are out of the game in the US for ICE cars geeting 40+ mpg. They appear to have some in Europe, but not here.
I would say that at least TRANSACTION prices for the Prius have come down substantially since the tax credits and, in California, HOV lane access, have expired. Again, they are selling for $1K off of sticker in LA, as oposed to several thousand dollar dealer markups and long waiting lists not so long ago. Nothing so dramatic as the markdown of the iphone, or whatever it is, but it’s there all the same.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (5:28 pm)#66 noel park
I have always respected your input to this site. Truth be told, I share your concerns about geopolitics and oil. But the Volt, it seems to be something we and the jingos can agree upon. We all want the Volt, perhaps for different reasons. So, I say leave the political discussions for a political blog. Let’s focus on constructive Volt talk. I doubt you are going to change Tom’s political viewpoint and I doubt he is going to change yours. Trying is probably a waste of time. If we can get the Volt going, we won’t have to argue about wars and oil as much.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (5:32 pm)Al #58
EnderDel was not considered because they did not have a PEV/PHEV program at the time. The did however reveal a pack later.
Tesla does not use A123 cells, at least not for the Roadster, they are plain old off the shelf laptop batteries.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (5:40 pm)>> Think about it , no more oil changes every 3000 miles …
Even Ford suggests 7500 . Save some oil .
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Mar 28th, 2008 (6:12 pm)I agree with 3. Mike 756.I also want a Volt for two reasons: 1. Environrmntaly friendly, super freindly and 2. 40 miles that all I need any given day in this beautiful city that is NYC. Not to mention that I will look cool in a car like that Volt no matter how uncool I may be.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (6:53 pm)I’m try to submit this for the 4th time today.
Given the volatile energy prices over the last 10 years, I’m not convinced anyone can make an accurate economic analysis. A professor I had in college graduated with an engineering degree during the depression (1930’s). One story he told us was of his first job, where he and his company completed an economic analysis for a municipality on whether to use copper or cast iron for drainage pipe in their projects. Copper needed replacement every 20 years, where cast iron would last the lifetime of the building/drainage system. The economic analysis favored using lower cost copper, and replacing it every 20 years. However, the town fathers didn’t care, and opted for cast iron. The moral of the story was, what was then the wrong decision, turned out to be the right decision. After the depression ended, labor and material prices escalated, so copper replacement would have been extremely expensive. Over time, the economics changed. For Prius vs. Volt, the key will probably be the relative cost of gasoline to electricity. Since 1998, the price of gasoline has increased 350%! My electric rates have increased by maybe 40%. One member indicates that he provides most or all or his electricity with solar. I don’t think it is that simple to make your own gasoline.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (7:18 pm)#71 thomdbhomb:
I take your point. I was the one who said earlier that I had been chastised for making political comments so I would cut it short. Then I did it anyway! Bad habits are hard to break. Maybe today’s activities in the oil center of Basra are just making me crazy.
In any case, I was actually agreeing with Tom, so I guess I really didn’t make myself clear.
I would just say that all of these things are reasons to buy a Volt, regardless of whether it is cheaper overall in the end than a Prius.
Where is the good old Oil Jihaadi, or whtever he called himself, now that we need him.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (7:31 pm)Just a little bit on projections. They are uncertain, but it is reasonable to consider boundary numbers to get a rough idea.
Yes, the calculation might be completely off target, but it is more likely the calculation will be in the ball park. To nay-say rough order of magnitude (ROM) calcs, is to trash feasibility studies, not really a sound position. The 2011 Prius PHEVwill "probably" cost about $30,000, and the 2011 Volt will probably cost about $40,000. Deal with it.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (7:33 pm)This discussion has become rather thought provoking. It makes me wonder what an outsider would think.
The most constrctive comparison is fiercely avoided… analysis of the technology only. For example, when "full" hybrids are considered and Camry is compared directly to Camry-Hybrid. Many factors can be eliminated entirely since the vehicle itself is identical. Specific focus on the propulsion system only makes the results very informative.
But here, Volt & Prius are tossed around even though their body, interior, and feature vary significantly. That isn’t at all objective, quite unlike considering how E-Flex in a traditional vehicle would be.
What should we expect for the next 3 years? What will be the primary focus: purpose, technology, or vehicle?
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Mar 28th, 2008 (7:59 pm)The primary focus will be different depending on the individual.
The company, if its smart, will market to all three areas, purpose, technology, and vehicle design. All three inner-twined is the best, GM has the advantage in all three, IMO.
As said before, each of us will have our own reasons to purchase a Volt. Or each of us will have our own reasons not to. Personally, I could care less if the Volt has an economic advantage over a Prius. I think the Prius is ugly and I won’t drive one. I think many here will be suprised to how few the cost recovery argument will matter.
For the masses, this is one of GM’s key advantages. Toyota seems stuck with a homely Prius design. The Volt must be a sleek, beautiful car, as true as possible to the concept. If so, the comparison will be likened to cinderella vs. the step sisters. Easy for most.
Unless you are partial to ugly step sisters…..
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Mar 28th, 2008 (8:05 pm)Based on materials costs alone, it is very unlikely that even in the long term 16kWh of Li-cells are going to have a manufacturing cost of less than $4000 (not to mention pack costs and profit margins). I’ve heard estimates of around $10k today.
The value analysis of that extra cost depends greatly on the assumptions you make about the future price of liquid fuel vs electricity and the residual value of the batteries.
My motivation for wanting to invest that money (if I could) is that I can buy or generate my own clean electricity and lower my carbon footprint. Any economic payoff would be a side benefit.
I believe that all personal transportation 50 years from now will be E-REV. GM may only be wrong about the timing and could still make mistakes in the execution of what I believe is a great vision for the future.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (8:13 pm)What defines the most constructive argument is also in the eye of the beholder. Particularily if one feels they have an advantage by keeping the the argument inside of their boundaries.
There is not a "most constructive argument" when debating the Volt and Prius. The two could not be more different in just about every way. If everyone here made a list as to why they would buy a Volt, or choose one over the other, and we compiled it, I would bet that list would be enormous. But a few key points would be prominent. I would bet one would be design and looks. Another would be cost.
When we get right down to it, if we have multiple options, we 1) will buy what we like or 2) what we can afford.
Volt wins on point 1; time will tell about point 2.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (8:27 pm)John1701a
There are two very different types of hybrids. Seriesand parallel. The Volt is the only serial hybrid that I know of. All of the rest are parallel systems. The series system "can"
be made to be much more efficient than a parallel system. In a parallel system the ICE runs at many different speeds and
loads. This means you have to compromise the design of the engine. It has to run well at low RPM and high RPM. It also
has to run well under a light load and a heavy load. "If" the series system is done right you know the load the engine will
operate under and what RPM the generator likes best. THEN you design the engine with no compromises. This will
give you an engine that will be 40% to 60% more efficient than the one in the parallel system. What I was told the other night here is that GM is taking an off the shelf engine
and trying to find the most efficient way to operate it. "IF"
that is true then they will loose a lot. I hope they at least redesign the camshaft. That will go a long way to fix the problem.
Take Care
Arch
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Mar 28th, 2008 (9:25 pm)Arch:
If you want to really dive into the details about the new automobile technologies that are on the way like series hybrid (E-REV Volt technology), hydrogen fuel cells, battery technology and so forth, here’s a good website I found a week or two ago:
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/
Here’s some good stuff about series (Chevy Volt) hybrids, parallel hybrids and power split (Toyota Prius) hybrids:
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/program/2007_avtae_report.pdf
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/technologies/systems/index.html
Theres tons of technical stuff on this site you could read about for weeks at least. The big national labs like Argonne have been doing a lot of research on advanced vehicle technologies the past 10 years or so. It looks like our government is "on the ball" more than we think in trying to make sure America stays competitive and solves the problems in transportation that need to be solved. The Japanese government and other governments do the same thing, so we better keep funding these national labs and staying on the cutting edge with these new technologies.
We’re getting a little closer to seeing the end results of their efforts with the Chevy Volt in 2010. Let’s hope they have done a great job in all their research and they help GM make the Volt a huge success that changes the auto industry forever.
This Chevy Volt project really is a bigtime thing … for a lot of reasons. Middle East oil politics, global warming, "peak oil" anxiety, gas prices, inflation for just about everything we buy … you name it. Our addiction to oil is a major problem, no doubt about it. Lots of news stories are being written about it these days since gas prices are on the rise:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/03/28/peak_oil_solutions/
GM is right to make the Volt project the highest priority in the company. I think Bob Lutz is starting to realize that this Volt project is starting look a lot like the Apollo program in the 60s for real. This not "just another car" at all. People are going to have high expectations about this car in 2010 just like with the moon landing in 1969. They better get it right.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (9:26 pm)I know you have all been waiting for me to show up here. I generally end all my retorts with, "why do we compare…can’t they both exist" But I’m gonna defend…again…hold onto your hats.
When doing numbers it’s best to compare the 2011 Volt and the 2011 Prius (If production is Nov 2010, it will be a ‘2011 Volt’):
A) next gen Prius is 90 mpg imperial
B) 35K Volt? Lets be real, it’s 40K at best…48K more likely
C) We all pay taxes on a new car. I don’t see that factored in anywhere
Volt -> 40-48K = US avg tax base 6%= $2,400-3,000
Prius-> 23k = US avg taax base 6%=$1,400
D)Insurance -> Got a online quote on a 08 Prius -> $615, for clean driving record, mid 30s male. How much do you think for a $40-$48k electric car? That $803 a year saving you quote would be lucky to cover the insurance.
And WTF is with going exactly 40 miles every single day you own your car to maximize the math? Ridiculous. Are you working a job exactly 20 miles from home 7 days a week? What happens to the math if you only drive 20miles a day? Or worse 80 miles…(at 80 miles the Prius costs less to run on the mileage basis alone).
E) Do we adjust for inflation on gas only? Has Bush announced a 10 year moritorium on electricity?
F) $6.00 gas? Clearly because gas gone from $1.49 in 2000 to $3.00 avg in 2008, it will double again in the next 3 years. It took from 1979 @ .86 cent to get to double up to $1.49 in 2000.
If you can guarantee $6.00 gas, you shouldn’t be a doctor you should be a trader
….$6 at the pumps is about $220 /barrell. You could buy longs on the NYMEX for Dec 2010 at $160/barrel for $2.90 and sell them for $60 in 30 months…thats a tidy 2068 percent.
Sorry to be blunt, but well, there it is.
Again, why do we have to compare? Can’t they both be seperate entities?
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Mar 28th, 2008 (9:55 pm)Check out this article I just googled up. This one ought to motivate a lot of people to buy a Volt as soon as they get a chance … "OPEC … Master of the Universe":
http://www.metimes.com/Politics/2008/03/28/the_real_world_opec_master_of_universe/8750/
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Mar 28th, 2008 (10:08 pm)Statik #84
You don’t have to defend anything. The return on investment argument is not an issue for a lot of people. The Volt wins because…..
Because the Prius is ugly.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (10:10 pm)Look at the top of the page.
Which would you rather drive?
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Mar 28th, 2008 (10:20 pm)I really don’t care what it looks like as long as it performs like they say. And mainly uses no oil for fuel.
All kinds of after market solar items will come out for those who can make use of them. The stores will probably compete for your business by having plug in’s for when you shop there.
Many things will change when we control our own future.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (10:49 pm)I agree : most important is max electric range and shape is starting to grow on me , but still wish they would put that drive system into the Impala.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:00 pm)GM Volt Fan
I would like to thank you for the information you have provided. I need to study it. It looks great. I was last involved with hybrids in 1976. A lot has changed but a lot is still the same. THANKS!
Take CareArch
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:24 pm)Well I personally do care what the vehicle looks like. All other electric vehicles I’ve seen, other than the Volt, are very "unappealing", to put it in a politically-correct-forum-format. Those dorky box-cars don’t interest me at all. Please keep the design of the Volt…it looks cool! Keep it that way.
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:42 pm)LOL
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Mar 28th, 2008 (11:52 pm)Arch;
Seems I recall seeing some of your posts a few months back and I really enjoyed them. Could you remind me of your backround again ?
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Mar 29th, 2008 (12:58 am)#41 DetroitJoe "If the price of the Volt is going to be stuck around $35-$45 thousand dollars, then GM is going to have to make it into a high end luxury car in order for it to really appeal to anyone."
This is the exact conclusion that Tesla came to for their WhiiteStar model. Full on BMW-style luxury/performance sedan.
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Mar 29th, 2008 (8:17 am)#86 MetrologyFirst
No argument from me there…the Prius looks like a nerd’s shoe. I’d much rather be seen around in ‘that’ Volt.
Only reason I don’t own a Prius right now is because it looks like the devil. Hopefully they fix that for next gen, but who knows.
…as a matter of fact, for both cars being so close to production we know strikingly little about their actual appearance.
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Mar 29th, 2008 (8:46 am)The Volt will be a coal powered and nuclear powered American car. This means jobs for the US and less oil money to Mexico, Canada and Venezuela(the despicable Chavez). Economic decisions are made by taking a very small view of a problem and defining the parameters strictly. Strategic decisions can not be incorporated in the analysis. In the 1970s we knew that we needed to get off foreign oil. If only a small portion of the funds used for shuttle programs had been allotted to battery development for cars, we’d all be driving electrically.
We went to the middle east in the first Gulf war to stop Saddam Hussein from invading Saudi Arabia, his eventual target victim. We went the second time to get a platform to constrain Iranian hegemony in the Middle East. What’s that costing us? Put it in your economic analysis. At the same time, include the cost of the balance of trade deficit to the Japanese. As Toyota and Honda go in the US, inverse goes the dollar. The Volt will get cheaper.
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Mar 29th, 2008 (8:54 am)Oh, I forgot to say, when night time off peak charging of electric autos becomes large enough to affect power company load factors, it will moderate the increases in electricity costs. A higher load factor means more payback to the generating company for the same equipment, therefore more profit per unit. Include that in economic projections also.
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Mar 29th, 2008 (9:00 am)93 John
Thats sort of a long story. Long time ago I was a race car driver. Then I had my own shop designing race cars for
four years. Then I got smart. Went to college. Then I
ended up teaching Industrial Design at Southern IL. U
for 35 years. I designed and built a serial hybrid electric
car back in 74-76 after the first energy crisis.
Last year I had a stroke which has slowed me down
a lot. Anything else?
Take Care
Arch
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Mar 29th, 2008 (9:06 am)#82 Arch:
I thought the engine would be operated in a more optimum condition in an E-REV (series) than in a parallel design, but from what I’ve read, the parallel hybrid does a very good job of operating the engine in the sweet spot for engine efficiency (I remember reading a paper out of Argonne about the Volt).
When I asked one of the GM engineers at Volt Nation what GM felt the advantage of E-REV is over a parallel hybrid with more batteries, the answer was that the E-REV design allowed for more all-electric operation (averaging over the distribution of driving behaviors for U.S. drivers).
I still think that the E-REV/series design should, in principle, also have an advantage in reliability by eliminating the transmission and in reduced emissions due to the higher utilization of grid power and the reduction in the number of cold-starts (most emissions from gas engines are when the catalyst is cold in the first 30 sec of operation). Those most be seen as smaller factors than simply displacing more oil.
As a side note, while I was in NYC for Volt Nation, I saw the hybrid buses they are using there which are diesel series hybrids (Orion VII). For me that is why I don’t have an issue with the E-REV language over series-hybrid. For me it’s a valid distinction to refer to a series-hybrid as having no grid connection and a small battery pack and an E-REV as a series hybrid with a grid connection and significant all-electric range.
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Mar 29th, 2008 (9:08 am)Sorry, in the first paragraph, of my previous post, I meant to say I read a paper out of Argonne about the Prius, not the Volt, although they do have a couple of papers comparing series and parallel designs too. The Argonne group is doing some really great work I think.
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Mar 29th, 2008 (9:14 am)I would like to see a topic that includes our collective imagination. After millions of EV’s are sold, how will our capitolist community change? Solar collectors, generators of different types of fuel, and so many that we cannot imagin.
I see malls offering free hookups if you shop there. The longer the better for them and us. Electric stations with all kinds of power from wind, solar etc. What are you thoughts?
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Mar 29th, 2008 (9:39 am)>> For me it’s a valid distinction to refer to a series-hybrid as having no grid connection and a small battery pack and an E-REV as a series hybrid with a grid connection and significant all-electric range.
Why the change?
"Plug-In" has been accepted as the appropriate identifier for well over a decade now.
Remember, altering a well-established term for no apparent benefit is often look down upon as greenwashing.
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Mar 29th, 2008 (9:45 am)100dt
The trick is to keep the parallel engine in a narrow RPM
range. The more narrow the range the better. If you look
around you will see that several people are working on
6 to 8 speed transmissions. The load can be narrow tooby using the electric motor more. The series set up
takes this to the max. You have a known load and a
given speed.
Take Care
Arch
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Mar 29th, 2008 (9:59 am)john1701a:
In my view there is an important difference between a plug-in parallel hybrid and an E-REV (or if you prefer plug-in series hybrid). The parallel will have the gas engine on more often, resulting in more gasoline burned in short trips and more cold-starts, resulting in higher emissions (averaging over the distribution of driving behavior in the US). This was also the distinction brought up by the Volt engineer I talked spoke with. From GM’s perspective, they need a way of communicating the difference between plug-in parallel and the Volt. They are choosing E-REV to do that. I’m not saying they are choosing correctly from a marketing perspective, I just understand the reasoning (and agree with it).
To your final point, electric vehicle (EV) is also a long-known terminology and I believe that thinking of a Volt-type vehicle as an electric vehicle with 40 miles of battery range and an on-board generator for longer trips is every bit as valid a description as calling the Volt a plug-in hybrid. In fact, in my opinion it’s a better description because it really draws out the valid distinction in an understandable way.
Both views are valid, I just like the E-REV description better. I’m often in the minority in my views, so I won’t be surprised if E-REV doesn’t catch on. But I still like it now even though my initial reaction was negative because it seemed like just a marketing ploy. It could still be a marketing tactic, but I now believe it has a valid technical foundation as well.
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Mar 29th, 2008 (1:18 pm)>> The parallel will have the gas engine on more often…
Unless market penetration is similar, that fact is a red herring.
You can promote a more efficient design all you want. But if the quantity produced & purchased is far less, the goal of phasing out the guzzlers simply won’t be met.
With 60,000,000 new vehicles each year, the desire for an absolute (pure electric) makes some forget that replacement with something substantially cleaner and more efficient doesn’t actually need that.
Like it or not, Volt will coexist with a very large fleet of FULL hybrids for a very long time.
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Mar 29th, 2008 (7:25 pm)All I know is that I’m spending 40 bucks a week in gas minimum, sometimes 50. By 2010-2011 that number will probably be 50 per week, maybe 60. That’s 200-240 per month, and 2400 – 2880 per year I’d be spending on gas. Now, if I can drive a volt, I won’t spend ANY money on gas, except on road trips. At roughly 2500 in savings per year, I calculate that the 11,000 extra for the volt will be recovered in 4-5 years.
On the other hand, price is NOT the only reason I would like to own a volt.
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Mar 30th, 2008 (9:54 pm)how much would the government give back for the Volt if you would estimate that the first generation Prius was 2,000 dollars than the initial cost of the volt would be around 28,000 dollars so then you would save money even faster than what was prodicted up above
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Mar 31st, 2008 (11:37 am)2,000 dollars was not given back.
It was only a deduction, which translated to just a few hundred dollars for the typical buyer. That’s a big difference from a credit.
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Mar 31st, 2008 (6:42 pm)#109 john1701a:
We went through this whole scenario here a few weeks ago. The first 60,000 Priuses got a $3500 CREDIT. You can still get about $2500 on a Civic hybrid or a Ford Escape. I think that even a Vue or a Malibu or Saturn Aura hybrid get about $1000. If you do a search for hybrid car tax credits, you will find it right away.
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Mar 31st, 2008 (9:03 pm)>> The first 60,000 Priuses got a $3500 CREDIT.
Not a chance!
The credit didn’t come along until 5 years *AFTER* it was already available here.
It’s blatant misleading to imply anything else, like initial or first.
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Mar 31st, 2008 (9:11 pm)And yes, you are correct. I’ve grown tired of the repeats.
Hopefully this server upgrade will lead toward constructive discussion.
Without that step forward, it’s the same old stuff the (non-hybrid) diesel supporters have continued to swill for years now.
There’s lots of opportunity here.
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Apr 1st, 2008 (9:11 am)I suggest studying the history of the Honda Insight.
First impression is that it was very different from Volt. But digging deeper, you’ll discover it too had a strong online presence… especially for its time.
Drawing interest beyond the enthusiast was a challenge. Efforts to grow appeal depended on participation offline… something that Prius owners have mastered.
What will those things be for Volt? For that matter, what did this thread accomplish?
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Apr 1st, 2008 (9:17 am)john1701a:
It sure brought a lot of traffic to Lyle’s site, which boosts his ad revenue……………
Other than that, it helps us pass the time until somebody gets to see a production Volt!
.
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Apr 1st, 2008 (10:58 am)john1701a:
Well first or last, 60,000 Priuses got a $3500 CREDIT. As the late, great, Jim Healy used to say, “I don’t make ‘em up, pally.”
Nobody has to take my word for it. This is the great day of online information. Look it up folks.
Happy AFD.
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Apr 1st, 2008 (11:54 am)>> Well first or last, 60,000 Priuses got a $3500 CREDIT.
Actually, a number of owners didn’t. AMT disqualified them from receiving the credit.
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Apr 1st, 2008 (3:20 pm)I thought that the credit came straight off the bottom line after the tax liability was calulated, AMT or no. You can bet I will check this out with my CPA before I place any faith in any possible tax credits.
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Apr 2nd, 2008 (10:00 am)I can think of one comparison that wasn’t taken into account. I routinely have to move stuff and people in my car. I’ve been in the back of a prius and it is a tight squeeze fitting three people in the back seat (and I’m only 5′6″). I’m hoping the Volt will have a larger back seat.
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Apr 3rd, 2008 (3:16 pm)Alls I know I own a Prius and would trade it in in a heartbeat for the Volt. Just keep the price tag under $30,000.00.
PS: Liked the info on Volt I bought GM @ 18.50 just hope the meet the production time table & MAKE it a fact not a pipedream. Also, Prius was first Foreign car I bought. Hope to buy GM again soon.
only electric.
Thanks
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Apr 3rd, 2008 (3:33 pm)> … $250 per year savings. Kanellos argues that since the cost of the plug-in conversion currently is $15,000, it would take 95 years to recoup the outlay.
No. Not 95 years. The outlay would NEVER be recouped.
It would be recouped if money were free. That is, if you could get a loan for a 0% interest rate, or if you couldn’t get any interest by investing that $15K outlay in something else instead (e.g., CD).
Think about it. Even if you could finagle a 95-year 5% loan for the plug-in conversion, you’d be paying $750/year in interest alone. There goes your $250 savings (and more) that you thought were going to pay down the loan in 95 years. In fact, if you only remitted that $250/yr in loan payments, not only will your $15,000 debt not drop to zero in 95 years, it will have ballooned to over $1,000,000.
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Apr 7th, 2008 (9:53 pm)I think everyone’s on board with the fact that the Volt would be a terrible choice of vehicle from a purely financial standpoint. The benefits lie in supporting the technology and step forward. Giving the finger to the oil companies / oil producing nations is another great reason. If I’m in the market for a car when the Volt comes out… I’ll consider it. Money will matter because I’m not rich…. but I will consider it.
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