How Many Chevy Volts Should GM Make in its first Year?
There has been a lot of back and forth about this question. From our standpoint we want GM to make enough so that everyone who wants one gets one. GM seems interested in making sure the car operates properly on a wide-scale before opening the flood gates, although thats more of my conjecture than any absolute fact.
The reality is since this is a new and unproven technology a gradual ramp up in production is a conservative approach.
So how many Volts do we think GM should expect to sell in it’s first model year? Here, we have over 13,000 people signed up on our waiting list. At the rate of growth the list and site is experiencing it would not surprise me in we had 100,000 by product launch. Furthermore, GMs own Vote for Volt site shows over 400,000 people want this car to be produced.
I suspect that when anyone considers be able to drive without using gas, they would want to. There’s a lot of people out there who still don’t know about the Volt.
I tried to confirm whether GM actually intends to make 10,000 Volts in its first year, as we discussed in the previous post.
GM E-Flex spokesperson Rob Peterson had this to say about it:
“Production number is not something we would normally discuss” .
“In all honesty, getting focused on the number in the first year really isn’t that important, rather I would encourage readers to take the long view. We plan to build this type of vehicle for many years to come.”
I also posed the question to Jon Lauckner, GM VP of global program management, and second-in-command to Bob Lutz:
Bob Lutz once said 60,000 to 100,000 Volts the firs year. Is this still your target?
“Well, lets put it this way, we all believe that the Volt is something that we want to offer as a high volume vehicle in our product line-up. Its really kind of early to talk about volume forecast, we’ll have to see how that all turns out, but lets put it this way, we do believe that the Volt has much more potential than a few hundred or a few thousand units, and obviously in our job to satisfy customers were going to do everything we can to meet the demand thats out there.
And I think if I talk about exact numbers I’m just speculating without really a lot of basis at this particular moment in time. But again we are confident that the volume is considerable, thats what you get when you talk to Bob, thats what you get when you talk to me. Talking about exact numbers, well I don’t know.”
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Related posts:
- Lutz: GM to Build 10,000 Volts in First Year and 60,000 in Second Year
- Report: GM Plans to Build 100,000 Volts per Year after 2010
- 60,000 Chevy Volts to be Built for 2010 Model Year
- About 10,000 Volts will be Produced in the First Year
- Bob Lutz: No Chevy Beat But Maybe 500,000 Chevy Volts
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41 Responses to “How Many Chevy Volts Should GM Make in its first Year?”
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March 3rd, 2008 at 12:55 am
The Chevy Volt is likely destined to become even more of a classic than the iconic ‘57 Chevy. GM has to know that, but I want to believe they won’t exploit the huge demand for the car by pricing it out of reach for too many buyers.
My guess is that they really don’t know enough about battery life in actual operation, or even what the market “climate” for plug-in E-REVs will be in 2010/11, to plan the larger runs of 60,000-100,000 cars at this time (2 1/2+ years in advance). And I sincerely hope they’ll follow the proven marketing principle of “promising less & delivering more” to create a good will “tsunami” that will virtually assure the Volt’s long-term success ….and assure it becomes the “2011 Chevy Volt classic”!
PS: I don’t really care how many they make as long as I get one!!!!
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:09 am
Anybody planning on getting two?
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:11 am
10,000 is, what, 3 per Chevy dealer?
Still, for the initial roll-out, I’d rather see quality than quantity.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:29 am
I expect to see full production in the second year.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:38 am
I wouldn’t mind waiting a bit longer, maybe a year. But I am willing to accept some risk in owning a car with this much technology packed into it. GM will probably bend over backwards to ensure problems get fixed plus they will have OnStar to monitor each and every Volt if they need/want to.
On another note, here is an interview (BusinessWeek) with Bill Kozyra of Continental Automotive that is very optimistic. I especially liked the comment: “Yeah. Specifically in the Chevrolet Volt in late 2009″… was that a slip of the tongue?
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/mar2008/bw2008032_568500.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:13 am
Marcus #2 said: “Anybody planning on getting two?”
Actually, Yes! But, not right away. The wife informed me not long ago she wants one too. Ouch!
The first Volt will be to replace our 2006 family car that only gets 17 City and 22 Highway; it has to go! A 4-seater will do just fine even though I’d prefer a 5-seater. I had hoped to purchase a Volt v1 in 2010/2011 but by the sounds of things that may not be possible or the Volt may be too expensive. We’ll just have to wait and see!
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:19 am
10,000 is a good first-year number. It’s not so many that GM has to put doubtful parts out the door or depend on doubtful assembly. The car will benefit greatly from a clean start. At the same time, 10,000 is enough for people and dealers in all the major markets to see and try the car. I want this car to suceed. To do that there have to be strong 2nd, 3rd, 4th… years with decreasing prices and increasing volumes.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:32 am
Last year, about 40,000 Corvettes were manufactured in a factory that typically operates 2 shifts per day. I don’t think they operate on weekends, either.
My point is that auto manufacturing is more efficient with larger numbers and economy of scale. It would seem more plausible for GM to make 60,000 rather than 10,000 Volts per year, but obviously, this may be constrained by battery supplies.
The other factor is projected sales volume. Many cars like the Mazda Miata sold for a premium in the initial years due to high demand, but later were sold at discount as the market got saturated. I’m sure this is another factor that GM must consider.
If gasoline prices keep increasing at current rates, however, I expect a huge demand for the Volt.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:54 am
The real question is: Will GM feel that the battery pack is stable enough to make it over the life of the vehicle. If the answer is yes, then my feelings on this are:
1. It will depend upon how much other new technology GM introduces with the vehicle. If they change all the accessories over from 12V to something else (24V - 48V), along with the new drivetrain, then they should keep year one production at 10K.
2. If they introduce a single model, with almost no option choices, and priced at the higher end, they should be able to work out any kinks in the assembly line procedures, and therefore should be able to produce more than 10K units, depending upon #1 above.
3. If they really want to gauge customer demand, then about 12 months before delivery to the dealers, they should publish the specs, pictures of the interior and exterior, warranty information, and pricing. And at the same time, start taking orders with $1000 deposits that are non-refundable, unless GM can not deliver the vehicle. If someone is wiling to put up $1K in advance, then GM can be reasonable sure the vehicles will go out the door, and can produce the quantities that have been ordered.
4. The only way that makes sense to reduce pricing in the following years is to introduce different models. If I pay $35K for a year #1 Volt, and then in year #2, they drop the price of exactly the same model to $29K, they are shooting the resale vale of this car in the foot. And even though I am ready to buy right now, if that is their plan, I will wait one more year and save $6K. owever, if the first year’s model is called the LX, and then they introduce an LE at a lower price point, then the resale value of the LX model is not cut short.
5. But what it all boils down to is that GM has to do this right in all areas - style, performance, fit, finish, warranty, and pricing. If they can pull this off, then IMHO, they have a sure fire winner!
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:04 am
10,000 sounds like a good run for a radically new vehicle platform, especially when it contains many interim components / systems that will only be used the first year.
If demand is high, then GM can push forward the follow-on config in the same model year as the first Volts.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:11 am
Whatever number makes the e-flex/volt platform a long-term success.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:23 am
Does first year mean calendar year or the first 12 months. 10K in 2010 would be ok, and then 60K to 100K in 2011 would be great.
I am no sure I understand the relationship between not being sure the battery will last 10 years/150Kmiles with the initial production run. GM has already said they will not even sell one Volt unless they are confident, so in for a penny, in for a pound.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:39 am
GM is in the business of selling cars so why limit the amount? Maybe,the reason to limit them is for the unknown factor. But, If GM feels confident, they should sell as many as they can produce. I think the demand will be there.
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:28 am
I don’t care how many are made, as long as they are made. I would still expect to get a quality Chevrolet that I have had for a long time.
This vehicle could put GM and Chevrolet in the forefront again.
I am trying to find a way to get my name on the list for one at first, then a second one in a year after that. Does any know of a link that can send me to a registration list for a vehicle?
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:36 am
If they produce a large number and the quality is low, it will take years to recover. By limiting the production number to 10K and really focus on each customer being happy and quickly fixing any issues that do come up, long term it will be of greater success. Of course I am wanting a Volt and feel the E-Flex platform can change the world, but first get a solid first year (v1) out and proven. Then open the production flood gates. So I feel GM is smart in limiting the number of first year production.
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:59 am
“The reality is since this is a new and unproven technology a gradual ramp up in production is a conservative approach.”
The reality is that this is NEITHER new nor unproven. GM had this concept of a series hybrid in 1999…..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:GMEV1serieshybrid.jpg
IF the hard heads at GM would use “OLD AND PROVEN” NiMH batteries in the Volt, production COULD have begun by now…….
P.S. - I would be tempted to buy two Volts…
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:32 am
jabroni,
Say bye-bye to NiMH batteries.
Tesla is using Li-Ions and Mercedes just put them in their vehicle. GM’s Volt is soon to follow.
NiMH is poisonous, killing 3rd world children by the millions - worse than malaria.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:59 am
The pace of innovation is increasing and that’s why GM wants a slower rollout. I don’t blame them and here is a related article:
MIT Builds Efficient Nanowire Storage to Replace Car Batteries
Could the ultracapacitor replace lithium ion in hybrids and plug-in vehicles? Our senior automotive editor already thinks the science adds up, but it’s in a tiny box at a messy lab that the future of automotive efficiency is taking a surprising turn toward extending range and battery life.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/research/4252623.html
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 am
Steve F #14
I agree. Just my HO, but I believe that the 10K may be voluntary regardless of batt. availability etc.
By limiting first year to 10K this not only achieves the success of being the first with an RE EV on the market but for a company of GM’s size, this is a manageable number of vehicles for problems and a good real world test sample. Any and all problems can be ironed out for the second year.
BTW, I’d sure like to see an economy/performance switch on the Volt. It wouldn’t be that hard to do and in economy mode would guarantee 40+ miles. All they’d have to have is a switch to the Zilla that limits the output so even accidental full throttle bursts don’t compromise economy. Then of course you could flip it to performance to run a 7 second 0-60 when you’re out funnin’ around, or need to climb a steep hill.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:12 am
Will history repeat itself with GM being short sighted as to the manufacturing capacity of the Volt? The classic example is that of the 1953 Studebaker Commander, management had low expectations of the sales of the radical design of the now classic shape and limited the tooling budget. The orders poured in and they could not produce the cars. The market passed them by and competition took up the slack. Granted, manufacturing technology has increased dramaticaly with CAD-CAM reducing the lead times for tooling & procceses, the weak link will now be vendor parts.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Reasons:
1) GM will probably be selling each Volt for a loss.
2) Internet sign-ups are fun and all but they are pretty much worthless.
3) “Smart” consumers would not buy this car in the first year or two for the following reasons:
a) The price of a new Volt should drop substantially over the following years. Therefore resale values will likely be horrible (even worse than your typical GM product). Why spend $35K on a volt that will probably be worth $10K 2 or 3 years later?
b) It is a radical new car that is being rushed and for which the usual GM checks and balances (which aren’t that great, I guess) have been removed. Welcome to Recall City.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
I think they should make around 30,000 - 50,000 the first year. That way if there is some type of problem they didn’t expect its easier to fix a lower number of Volts then a higher (100,000+) number of volts. Also I really want to buy the Volt, but I know I won’t be buying the first year and possible not even the second year Volt. Nothing against the Volt, but I’d rather give them about 2 years or so to fix and improve on the design and technology before I drop $30,000 on a car. Also I’m hoping that during the first two years of production they will also get the cost down and maybe improve on the electric range a little bit.
So I would say maybe 50,000 the first year then 100,000 the second year. Then on the third year mass produce.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Producing a small amount during the first year is smart.
This gives them a good test market, but with numbers manageable for recalls and such. In software, we often roll out big changes to a small group first, and then widen the scope gradually. This is so ensure minimal (if any) problems when the entire system goes live.
I see selling only 10,000 the first year as being the same thing.
Remember that 60,000 new US car buyers are not interested in American cars. GM knows this and shouldn’t risk a bad publicity for our Volt.
And they don’t need to go looking for buyers or give any to the dealers. We have more than 10,000 here on the waiting list. The sale is right here.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Can anyone explain to me if/why the wiper electronics issue is really a big deal?
Let’s say it takes 200WHr/mile to propel the volt, a seemingly reasonable estimate. If five 40-watt toasters were plugged in for an hour, that would decrease the Volt’s range by one mile.
Based on this example, I find it hard to believe that ancillary equipment such as windshield wipers could really affect the volt’s range much.
Even if we’re talking about some high powered stereo system. Stock stereo systems aren’t usually more than 200-watt systems. If you’re in the car for an hour listening to music, that’s still only a one mile dent in the range.
Now, I understand that they’re talking about the sum of all these draws, but even then, I can’t see this being a huge issue. Put another way, why don’t they just allow a slightly larger percentage of the Volt’s battery pack to be used and charged? They’ll maintain a similar range without trying to reinvent the wheel (or windshield wiper in this case).
Not trying to sound pessimistic, I’m all for the Volt and am looking forward to buying one myself. I’m just curious as to whether or not there’s some other cost barriers here that they’re trying to keep on the down low.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:17 pm
If their forced schedule pushes their manufacturing to start towards the end of the 2010 year, then maybe they do not have time to make any more of the cars the first year?
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:18 pm
The cost of owning most vehicles over the life of the vehicle is the cost of the fuel. An average car consumes $15,000 of fuel in the first 100,000 miles. GM may be underestimating the ability of the average American consumer to grasp and understand this concept. Essentially, if GM is offering a nice car like the Malibu or the Aura which goes for $25k at a price of $35k, I think they will be able to sell folks on the concept of spending the extra $10k to save the $15k in fuel. GM is essentially working towards incorporating the fuel cost of the vehicle into the purchase price of the vehicle, but at a dramatic discount.
I think people will understand this concept and will want to buy. Others will want to buy to do the right thing for the environment, and still others will want to buy for the sake of oil security. Any way you slice it, just about everyone would agree with one, two or three of those points, and all of those folks are potential customers.
Long story short – I say go for the 100,000 per year number and start pre-selling the thing now. It can certainly be sold in other countries as well – just like Cadillac and Corvette. By going with the higher number, engineering cost are defrayed far more rapidly and the car becomes more profitable, sooner.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Also, I might be in for two, but I would rather get one early and then later a Cadillac version, or a Buick electra version.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:53 pm
GM will probably have LONG waiting lists for people wanting to buy a Volt in 2010 … especially if gas prices keep going up. They better revise their production schedules if they think they have a smash hit with the first Volts that come out.
I want them to make sure the car ends up with good ratings from the car magazines too if at all possible … the exterior, the interior, the battery, reliability … everything. The Volt could be GM’s “halo car” for a long time if they go the extra mile on developing it. It could change GM’s image a lot … for the better. GM … the premier carmaker for the 21st century.
Hmmm … I wonder what GM is going to announce at the Geneva Auto Show tomorrow about lithium ion battery technology and the Volt.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/03/business/EU-FIN-Geneva-Auto-Show.php
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gqlY3UrH2drRfkso-ovousjMYl2gD8V4R0K00
http://www.thecarconnection.com/blog/?p=861
“Meanwhile, GM is also promising a BIG LEAP FORWARD with hybrids this week in Geneva. The company will also swap to lithium-ion batteries–which offer better efficiency than nickel-metal hydride batteries–in its hybrids, such as the Chevrolet Malibu and Saturn Aura sedans. GM hopes to sell more hybrids than Toyota by adding vehicles like the new hybrid Chevrolet Volt.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120433052881404369.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
It looks like things are getting exciting for the R&D folks at GM these days. They are at the dawn of a new age in automobiles. They’re probably feeling like the mad scientist in the movie “Back to the Future”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnqtXOi1iaY&feature=related
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:13 pm
#19 Dean Anderson-
It wasn’t just limited production capability that hurt Studebaker and Commander sales, it was also price. Ford and Chevy were able to sell their cars for hundreds less, and back then hundreds were like thousands today. So a combination of low availability and high price sent buyers to other showrooms.
In all fairness to Studebaker, the transition from the ‘52 models to the all new ‘53 models was pretty great. Lots of new tooling and assembly procedures. Also I think it was fair of them to assume greater sales of four door models based on their own past experience and that of all the other manufactures. Then, like today, four doors typically outsell two doors. The Starlight Coupe (Champion or Commander) was a special exception to the rule. I think anyone would have a hard time planning production for this all new model line up with the limited resources they had compared to GM and Ford.
March 3rd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
GM should start off by making a million new Volts!!
I really do believe these cars will be sold quickly…
Reeeeeeaaaallll quick!
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
I would rather have a workable Volt now than a perfect Volt later. NiMH that works now or LIONs maybe sometime. GM should leave some room for improvement for the next years model.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:40 pm
If GM make the 10,000 volt. It would be come a auto collector as the first mass production electric drive system car . I know the EV1 is the first Electric car, but it wasn’t made for the plublic. So the collector didn’t have in thier hands. It may also be version 1 as well. I prefer just keep the production until the next year model is ready.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:50 pm
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:18 pm Wise Golden ….GM may be underestimating the ability of the average American consumer to grasp and understand this concept….*** *** **** *****
Wise, I think you’re right on a number of levels. The general public should not for a minute think that the Volt is a "pretty" entrant late to the hybrid party. It of course is NOT a hybrid. GM’s advertising does nothing to educate the public. I wonder how much they spent on that ridiculous ad where the children are listening to the hood of the car. Whatever it was it would have been better spent explaining and demonstrating exactly what the Volt is.
I’ve said it before, but now that GM actually has products they need to stop advertising like they’re selling a fresh coat of paint and a rebate.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Makes you wonder if the Volt will have a digital controller or analog, maybe inherited from the EV-1?
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog4/?p=65
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:54 pm
I feel sorry for GM,
They only make money on large vehicles and sales are going down the gurgler.
What they need is a new vehicle that they can sell in the same quantities commanding the same profit margins.
If production is kept low enough they may never run out of early adopters.
Ill get my cigarette packet and calculate the appropriate sales levels.
Back soon…
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
10-20K first model year and ramp up quickly from there, manageble for problems and able to provide better service. There’s a lot of new technology for service techs to be educated on. Also, limiting production may get the Volt out (pun intended) sooner!
I don’t see price coming down until competition or expiring rebates force it. As long as car performs as has been indcated so far and quality is good, demand will be tremendous. This will be especially true is rebates end up around $6000 and price is around $35,000. GM’s costs will probably come down but this will primarily be kept to offset cost or increase profit. The best value will probably be in other E-Rev models besides the Volt and offered 2-3 years after 1st Volts.
GXT, resale value will be based on other similar vintage cars with similar fit, finish, and features. Unless gas prices reverse their trend, the Volt will hold up VERY well in the resale market.
Grizzly, limiting acceleration alone isn’t going to help much with range. This is one of the great benefits of electric drivetrains. Step on it guilt free. Economize be minimizing friction breaking, lower highway speeds, tailgating (at a safe distance of course), properly inflating your tires and lightening up on the AC. By the way, rolling your windows down may not save anything vs running AC because of increased drag.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Lyle, why do you continue to refer to your list as a "waiting list"? I’ve said it before, that’s deceptive. At least GM’s own site is a lot clearer up front… it’s essentially a "Vote for Volt". Just because someone gave their email address does not mean they are on a "list" sitting in an official line of any kind waiting. You can’t even give a deposit for a Volt because GM is not accepting them, because the Volt is still a couple years away from that stage. 10,000 email addresses on your list, once the Volt goes into production, may be lucky to if 10% of those on that "email" list actually buy one the 1st year. There are so many factors like price, warrenty (especially the battery, assuming it’s not leased which is another factor), competition available either existing at the time the Volt’s start rolling off the line or are close to being available, etc
Hey, I’m one disappointed they won’t be making the 60,000 the 1st year as originally announced, which I think would have helped keep the price lower than the current estimate. Though maybe it’s best they keep it to 10,000 to reduce risk, work out any problems, and hopefully sell them out to be able to increase 2nd year production numbers. I just think it’s misleading to call it a "waiting list". Learn from the Smart Fortwo "reservation program" which took/takes real deposits (even if only $99)…. though how well a 2 seater that gets less mpg than a Prius (though is a lot cheaper) sells is another question. GM’s Geo Metro over 20 years ago got better mpg and could seat 4-5.
March 4th, 2008 at 8:31 am
#17 Jason - You are the most ignorant and obnoxious poster ever! What a moron.
March 4th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Cost of fuel is the make/break factor for me. I run cars for about 250,000 miles about 12-15 years. My 1998 neon has 180,000, 2010 I’ll be ready for a new car. I’ll shell out $30k vs my normal $15k for a Volt based on fuel savings with the bonus of being much more environmentally friendly. The battery life is my main concern. 150,000 mile battery is minimum for me. I know lots of people that trade in at 100,000 miles. I can live with reduced all electric range to a point. A smaller production run has the advantage of lower recall costs in the event of a problem. But more significantly allowing for mid-year versions with technology updates. I’ll put down $1k deposit for a Volt ASAP!
March 6th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
This is why the cost of the Volt is sooooo high. 10,000 units times 35 grand is only 350 million. Kind of lame for the R&D cost of this kind of vehicle.
They need to make 60,000 and sell them at 25 grand. That’s 1.5 Billion friends.
March 6th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
I wonder if GM is considering batteries as a option.. smaller ones to keep the cost down and larger ones for people who want longer EV range? And the option to add batteries after you buy the car. I rented a EV1 for 2 days in LA… I gave many rides to sceptics… every one was convinced in less than 10 seconds.
That first acceleration from 0 to EVgrin … nothing like it!
A first gear that never stops… no shifting…
Effortless acceleration… capturing energy while braking…
Once these EV’s get on the road… people will wonder why it didn’t happen sooner.