Production not Chemistry is Reason for Delay in Mass Producing Plug-in Cars like the Chevy Volt
Popular Mechanics has just published an article outlining the race to mass producing plug-in cars. The article includes a few quotes from GM’s advanced battery director Denise Gray with whom I have spoken on several occasions.
The article reviews some of the lithium-ion battery chemistries and correctly notes that its only the laptop-type (cobalt oxide) that are subject to thermal runaway.
Denise Gray tells them that GM is currently in the “middle-stages” of R&D on the Chevy Volt. The article sort of incorrectly reports that Bob Lutz said driveable mules were delayed, read correct details here:
Gray also tells the author that the batteries will have to be produced in high quanities but also high quality. An unnamed Toyota source indicates that the delay to production is due to the scaling-up time need to reach high production quantities and not issues of chemistry. This is true in part, but see this prior discussion from A123’s Ric Fulop and CPI’s Martin Klein:
The article goes on to list the top 10 plug-in concepts, and gives the Cadillac Provoq top billing, with the Volt in second place. I can tell you though, the Volt will come out first, and the Provoq isn’t definitely slated for production as far as I can tell.
Overall, worth a read.
Source (Popular Mechanics)
Popularity: 4%
Related posts:
- Ford: Mass Production of Plug-in Electric Cars at Least 5 Years Away
- Will Mass Use of Plug-in Cars Increase Air Pollution?
- The Facts on Timing of Automotive Battery Mass Production
- Look Out, Here Comes Toyota: Plans to Mass Produce Lithium-ion Plug-in Hybrids in 2010
- Massive Breaking News: GM Receives First Chevy Volt Lithium-ion Battery Packs From LG Chem and Expects to Make up to 100,000 Cars in First Year
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35 Responses to “Production not Chemistry is Reason for Delay in Mass Producing Plug-in Cars like the Chevy Volt”
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February 7th, 2008 at 12:30 am
It always amazes me when a major publication doesn’t get the story straight. Huge budgets, and so called automotive journalist paid to write about a major change in automotive design and they don’t care enough to double check what they wrote.
Let’s hear a big round of applause for Lyle aka gm-volt.com.
February 7th, 2008 at 12:32 am
I think there is certainly validity in the Toyota guy’s statement that production is currently the weak link, not chemistry. The fact of the matter is that nobody is currently mass-producing car-sized Li-ion packs. Sure, there are power tools and even smaller car companies using them, but that is much different than a GM or Toyota making hundreds of thousands per year. A major automaker has to be VERY concerned with quality, cost, safety, weight, etc. All of those things take resources to set up.
From the few bits of data we have seen regarding the initial battery packs, it looks like the chemistry is almost there, if not exceeding expectations.
February 7th, 2008 at 12:57 am
The article also mentions that the Tesla hit the roads last week. I noticed that the 0-60 was listed at 4.8 and not sub 4 probably due to the fact that it may be transmission-less, due to the problems they had.
Regardless, I’m hoping this will continue to fuel the fire.
February 7th, 2008 at 1:56 am
I have searched “Denise Gray” and can’t anything related to her background, nor can find her from any .edu website, I am wondering if she has any battery research expetise or just a pure manager who knows nothing about the field (common those days), She also said that they were busy hiring battery guys, who I heard it to be bogus. There are many battery guys at ANL, LBL, and research institutes, and GM is not actually hiring people now. I doubt their credibility, though I must say A123 is actually doing a good job, just hope GM will not cut price like they do with other suppliers.
Toyota has production proble, so will A123, LG chem, Johnson Control, Sanyo, or anyone else.
Does anyone have background of Denise Gray, until then, I have no confidence in this lady. May EV/PHEV come ASAP and god bless us and curse terrorists.
February 7th, 2008 at 2:27 am
“We are now expanding our plants to support our different automotive programs. We announced a $30M financing to start this process a few days ago.
http://www.a123systems.com/newsite/index.php#/news/news071023/.”
I just can’t imagine A123 backers giving them $30M if they did not believe A123 could upscale.
February 7th, 2008 at 2:28 am
Dang. The link doesn’t work.
February 7th, 2008 at 7:18 am
From a quick bit of searching I did myself, Denise Gray to be an electrical engineer. I didn’t find a bio page but per this link:
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/archives/2007/02/getting_a_jolt.html
“Denise has more than 20 years of experience in such areas as powertrain, vehicle integration, electronics and software controls.”
February 7th, 2008 at 7:20 am
Post above should say “seems to be” (wish there was an edit feature).
February 7th, 2008 at 9:17 am
5/6 NZDavid:
A working link for your quote at A123 is…. http://www.a123systems.com/#/news/news81
“We are now expanding our plants to support our different automotive programs. We announced a $30M financing to start this process a few days ago.”
I just can’t imagine A123 backers giving them $30M if they did not believe A123 could upscale.
I agree, David ….the investors A123 mentions include some heavy hitters like GE!
February 7th, 2008 at 9:34 am
A123 is listed as doing an IPO early this year… I want in on that one!!!!
http://venturebeat.com/2008/01/14/roundup-intelius-and-a123-forecast-ipos-emi-cuts-coghead-and-more/
February 7th, 2008 at 9:37 am
Lyle, as you noted at the top of this thread, “The article goes on to list the top 10 plug-in concepts, and gives the Cadillac Provoq top billing, with the Volt in second place. I can tell you though, the Volt will come out first, and the Provoq isn’t definitely slated for production as far as I can tell.”
You’re right! I also found it interesting that Popular Mechanics doesn’t even mention the Provoq’s REAL-LIFE “poor 2nd cousin”, the Plug-in Vue, especially since we’re told Vue mules already exist and that the Vue may be their first plug-in to reach dealers.
Could it be GM’s decided to down-play the plug-in Vue so it won’t be as likely to up-stage the Volt’s introduction?!?
February 7th, 2008 at 10:01 am
I’m noticing the Volt TV ad is running more and more
February 7th, 2008 at 11:05 am
The geenral media, as a rule, is useless when it comes to covering technology stories. They don’t even know enough to know what to ask and are easily confused. They are also often LAZY. They don’t check their facts or even ask their interviewee to look over their notes and make corrections. Hey, they’re unionized. You can’t fire them merely for incompetence.
February 7th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Mike #7 and God #4
I found this :
“Denise Gray, a mid-career GM electrical engineer. (…)
Ms. Gray said she feels honored to get this development position because it puts her profession of electrical engineering in the front lines of automotive development. (…)”
Source : http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/05/21/denise-gray-leads-gms-central-hybrid-energy-storage-system-grou/
and
“A Michigan native and career GM engineer and manager, Gray’s actual title is director of hybrid energy storage systems.”
Source :
http://www.hybridcars.com/news2/gms-gray-focuses-on-batteries.html
and if you want her (presumably) resume, you have to pay :
see : http://www.sae.org/technical/papers/1-115-5-44
Hope it helps.
February 7th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Recently, someone was commenting about the coming of the sub-$20,000 hybrid(s).
In yesterday’s LA Times, Northridge Toyota advertised a new 2008 Prius for $19,995. So, to whoever predictied it, you have even a greater gift of prophecy than you knew.
There were several more in the “$21,995″ range.
February 7th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Nasaman/Lyle
also am i the only one that noticed that no details were given about the volt yet they went into how many miles, Kwh ratings, on every other car. I got to be honest i left that article feeling like they were trying to convince us that these things were years away. Almost every date said 2011-2012 with the slant leaning to 2012.
Also am i the only person that finds it silly to think we can make millions of Li-ion batteries for laptops, drills, etc. but we can’t make 100,000 volt batteries year 1. Why because their bigger? I understand the chemistry has to be different but people are acting like producing them is a big hurdle, why because we never did it before?
I’m only a Systems Administrator but to me the hardest part is going to be the software that manages the variables from the driver, car, climate, conditions, etc.
February 7th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
On the Tesla - note that production will not begin until March sometime and that the first production vehicles (thru later this year) will have a temporary transmission whihc limits acceleration to 5.7 secs 0-60. These will be replaced free of charge toward the end of the year when the long term transmission is complete.
I had great hopes for the Tesla, and i still hope they do well, but jeez people, they don’t seem to be able to get anything right. If i was plunking down close to $100k i would be one very pissed off dude right now. Sheet, my 5.9 liter (yeah baby!) Dodge Durango that weighs about 4500lbs does 0-60 in 7 seconds!
February 7th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Jon P, #16:
It is just a fact of automotive engineering that it takes a while to perfect the process of manufacturing anything, let alone a high-tech component like a bettery pack. I don’t want to sound like a jerk, but if you are not an engineer you probably just don’t understand all of the things that go into engineering a product.
Another point which may make more sense to you is that auto companies have a razor thin profit margin (unlike laptop and power tool makers). OEMs like GM and Toyota must save every penny possible while still producing a safe, reliable product.
February 7th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Hey all, I saw a die cast Volt for sale on eBay:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=300196857450&ssPageName=STRK:MEWA:IT&ih=020
Please, no “price gouging” jokes.
February 7th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Jon:
Battery pack is very difficult, because it requires extremely good consistency among the batteries to achieve 10 year life. You have 100 cells, and each one last 10 y individually, but when you put them together, it will fail much quicker and some may fail prematurely. Making very consistent cells are difficult because the process take mant steps, each one not good, you are screwed. Also due to the low margin, if there is any inconsistency, you have to get rid of the cell, which cut the profit margin!
February 7th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
I was one of the people that “predicted” sub 20K hybrids. But I wouldn’t call it a “prediction”. Sometimes we get so wrapped up in the Volt and GM’s PR that we forget that responsible companies announce things that they know they can do.
I would also point out that the sub $20K 2008 Prius isn’t what GM/Volt needs to be concerned about. There will be less expensive hybrids from Honda (and I expect Toyota) before the Volt. Also, given the 3 years (best case) they have until the Volt is available, their hybrids will be even cheaper yet.
February 7th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
GXT, #21:
I can only agree.
I believe that automakers who do not keep up with this trend are doomed to perish. Or at best to be driven back into some much smaller niche. Building light trucks for people who actually need them and can’t do without, for example. God send building Corvettes, but that’s another story.
I don’t flatter myself that GM listens to what I say for one nanosecond, but I still feel driven to add my name to the chorus.
As Lucky Jack Aubery was so fond of saying, “There is not a moment to be lost.”
February 7th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
The future of town delivery trucks is here now.
http://ir.valence.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=292541
Also Valance has released their 3rd quarter results today.
http://ir.valence.com/index.cfm
They say they have ramped up to full scale production for the 3rd generation Epoch range. They claim 2000 cycles at deep discharge.
The Chairman’s report is very interesting to listen to. Regrettably, they only intend to keep it on the site for a short time.
February 7th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I think GM is on to a winner with the Volt. As shown with the following link from GreenCarCongress hybrid cars are really starting to be accepted in the market.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/02/reported-us-sal.html#more
Since finding this site, I really feel like I’m watching history unfold!
Regards
February 7th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
An article about CPI.
http://www.mlive.com/business/index.ssf/2008/02/volt_battery_efforts_roll_ahea.html
February 7th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
25.Young:
Thanks for this excellent link.
“The Volt I think has also another mission, which is to get the technology leadership back to GM and back in this country in some sense,” Patil said.
Truer words were never spoken.
February 7th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
Yes,
but as has been mentioned the price is going to be very important, especially with a bow-tie on the hood.
It’s for this reason that I think the 40 mi range will be plenty, especially with the initial release.
February 7th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
….and of course I forgot to mention that the big “T” and the big “H” are going to try to drop the bottom out of the price on PHEV’s, and will be well poised to do so in 2010 or 11.
February 8th, 2008 at 11:31 am
Grizzly, #27 & 28:
Well right.
As I drove across LA to work this morning I was struck, as always, by the shoals of Toyotas, Hondas, Nissans, et al, ad nauseum. Did I mention Mercedes and BMW? I see it as a form of national economic suicide. Not unlike lemmings jumping en masse off the cliff. I promise that you do not see any such thing in Japan, or Korea, or Germany.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Noel Park #27
Just for a comparison with western Europe.
In Germany, certainly not, but the pricing policy of big “T” and big “H” as Grizzly names them is not similar to the one they practise in the USA.
Here a Toyota or Honda is priced on the high end of the price interval of similar cars.
A T Prius here, with a basic equipment is priced 26,000 €, that means 37,700 US $ with an exchange rate €/$ of 1,45 $ for 1 € almost the double of what it is priced in the USA.
It is the same with Hondas.
For 26,000 €, I may buy quite a good european car, with good mileage and gentle on CO2 emissions.
February 8th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Jean-Charles Jacquemin, #30:
Why do you suppose the price of the Prius is so much higher in Europe? Is it just a result of Toyota’s marketing strategy? Is it the difference in exchange rates? Or is there some sort of a tax strategy on the part of the European governments to protect the home industries? If it is the latter, let me hasten to add that I am not being critical in any way. Enlightened self-interest is a good thing, in my experience.
I am bound to say again that I really appreciate your comments here. They are alway very educational. In addition, I am so technologically backward that it is always a marvel to me to see comments instantly popping up from around the globe. It makes me hope that we simple citizens will find ways to connect and communicate past the clouds of spin and obfuscation that our political “leaders” throw up. Maybe this is how we will be able to work together to make this world a better place.
Sorry to go all emotional on you bloggers, but it is very cool when you think of it.
February 9th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Noel #31,
“Or is there some sort of a tax strategy on the part of the European governments to protect the home industries? If it is the latter, let me hasten to add that I am not being critical in any way.”
Last I heard, the EU has import quotas on automobiles from Japan and Asia. They limit the supply to consumers and so the price goes up. We don’t do that here, they are free to sell as many as they can. The Japanese have very strict quotas into their country, so it has never been fair trade. It hasn’t been much of an issue because we rarely make any cars here that Europeans or Japanese even want. However EU vs. Japan is another story. Japanese love BMWs and Mercedes and Europeans love Toyotas and Hondas, but both must pay really high prices due to limited availability.
February 9th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Noel Park #31 DaV8or #32
Thank Noel for your comments, I also think that we simple citizens may change the world to be a better place to live by exchanging informations that discriminating monopolists do not want to be disseminated.
To answer your questions :
1. The price of the Prius (and other Toyotas or Hondas) is higher due to the difference between taxes (DaV8or, the EU import quotas against japanese car imports have been abolished since 2000, and remember the US import quota transformed in a “voluntary restraint agreement” in the first half of the ‘80) . Here in Europe we have to pay the VAT (value added tax) on the purchase price (it differs between European states from15% (Luxembourg) and 25% (Sweden, Danemark), in belgium it is 21%).
In the USA I think that the sales tax is lower.
2) The € has fluctuated practically the same way against the yen than against the US $ in the last five years. I do not think the exchange rate is the cause.
3) We are left with the discriminant monopolist hypothesis, and the limited availability evoked by DaV8or is a possibilty. As well as the competitive situations with other car makers. Toyota was the only car company to give a five years warranty. Starting this year, Opel is giving a six years warranty but only in Germany (Why ?) so the perceived quality could be an explanation for higher prices.
Hope to have helped.
February 11th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Jean-Charles, #33:
Well thank you. And not just about cars either.
For example, there are many of us here who believe that the former President of France was much closer to right about Iraq than our own dear leader.
Endless war is only making all of us poorer and less safe. Think of the good we could do around the world with the trillions (with a T) of dollars we have squandered on military adventures.
February 12th, 2008 at 4:03 am
Noel #34
Being no US citizen, I will refrein to give my opinion about your great leader.
I think however that cooperation, mutual understanding and respect of life are far way better than war.
We know that oil causes wars, then …