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The Price of the Volt

January 17th, 2008 | Posted in: Financial, Public Opinion

Reader response has clearly been quite negative in reaction to Bob Lutz’ mentioning the Volt may cost more than 30,000 initially.

There are several considerations however:

Cost of fuel will be a lot less; 2 cents/mile for electricity versus 15 cents per mile for gasoline.

High likelihood of significant tax rebates for Volt owners.

Possible leasing of the battery.

The very first models will be more expensive but if demand is great, price may come down with ramp-up in production.

Nothing is ever guaranteed anyway, the car isn’t even built yet.

In terms of the waitlist, I have only collected emails. There will come a time when members will be asked to confirm their interest, as we get closer to production and begin the process of connecting people to actual cars.

Anyway, I for one am hanging in there and continuing my support of the car that could change the U.S. and the world. I hope you will do the same.

Posted by: Lyle

132 Responses to “The Price of the Volt”

szyszek Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 11:47 am

I found a way to afford the Volt – Florida lottery. I need 6 numbers between 1 and 53 – I will play the numbers posted by readers of this blog (up to 10 sets). Whoever gives me the right numbers, gets a free Volt and free gas for life. Keep posting!
Otherwise, no Volt for me. If I could afford a $40k car, I would be driving a Lexus a long time ago. Sorry Maximum Bob, you got to Minimum the price!

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Leon Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 11:55 am

My enthusiuasm for the Volt at 25-30 already took into consideration the cheaper gas and possible incentives. My ICE comparison price range is 15-20.

Over 40k takes away all the non-greens; that is, people who are interested for reasons other than the environment. Can GM afford the loss of this market segment?

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Brian M Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:01 pm

26, 31, 5, 50, 19, 33

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noel park Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:07 pm

In the words of the late, great, Jim Healy:

“Comment……………..No Comment!”

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Ed Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:24 pm

Sorry Lyle but you sound like a frontman for GM. Maybe on your income it’s no big deal but there will be no cost savings gas verses electric. 10K buys alot of fuel. Honda and VW should be coming out with high mileage diesels at the end of this year and right now look like the best bet to get into a high mileage reasonably priced vehicle.

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Mike756 Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:26 pm

“Anyway, I for one am hanging in there and continuing my support of the car that could change the U.S. and the world. I hope you will do the same.”

I’m hanging in there for now, although this announcement has seriously reduced my confidence in GM. I don’t think they can afford much more backpedaling.

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MC Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:38 pm

As I said on the previous topic, who knows what will change between now and then… I’m still very optimistic and supportive of the Volt, but if the price target ends much more than about $20-25k with incentives, it likely won’t make enough sense/cents for me around first production. But I have every confidence that I’ll be buying a Volt or something like it when that price point gets nearer my range.

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noel park Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:39 pm

In checking around the web real quickly, it appears that currently the highest hybrid tax credit is $3400.

Interestingly, there appears to be a $12,000(!) credit for a Honda fuel cell vehicle. Does anyone have any better information on this? If they can subsidize Honda to the tune of $12,000, I would hope that they could do at least as well for a domestic manufacturer

As the jerk who has been promoting the deposit idea, I am pretty embarrassed by all of this.

Sorry guys.

Something quirky is going on with the [quote comment=""] feature. The last one someone tried to use is showing up in my reply box this morning, and has to be deleted manually each time.

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Mark Bartosik Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:43 pm

If the democrats win next election you can expect about $6K in tax credits. Republican senators blocked extending solar and wind tax credits beyond 2008, in favor of oil exploration credits. I don’t have a vote in US elections, but those that do, bare that in mind.

Where do I get the $6K number — I’ve read the draft bill in library of congress. It is only a draft. There may be state incentives too.

I’m still in, but I will be expecting a little more from the car.

Most interesting in the last set of posts, was how does GM do the accounting for the research? Does GM write off over first gen of Volt, first year of Volt, or entire e-flex generation?

That’s part of what the tax credit is for. It is a way to offset the manufacturer’s development costs, or alternatively you can look at it as offsetting the costs to early adopters who pay for the manufacturers’ development costs.

Maybe Tesla’s white star is still in the game? Weren’t they planning on a luxary sedan now REEV at $50K?

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Rashiid Amul Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:44 pm

[quote comment=""]

As the jerk who has been promoting the deposit idea, I am pretty embarrassed by all of this.

Sorry guys.

Something quirky is going on with the [quote comment=""] feature. The last one someone tried to use is showing up in my reply box this morning, and has to be deleted manually each time.[/quote]

Noel Park, if you are a jerk then I am one too. I supported your idea of a deposit.

And feature is messed up for me too. I’m using Firefox. But when I checked it in IE 7.0, it reacts the same. Something is broken Lyle.

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Rashiid Amul Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:45 pm

I really screwed those quotes above. Sorry.

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Richard H. Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:52 pm

GM has officially lost my vote. I will not purchase a $40,000 vehicle that is touting unproven technology. Toyota… Give me an option and I will buy it!

GM: Welcome to number two! You will be staying there.

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Tom Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 12:53 pm

Comparing electricty costs to petroleum costs has little to do with the cost of developing, producing, and marketing the Volt. GM should price the Volt to recoup costs and realize a reasonable profit. Anything beyond that is a tactical business decision that will determine the long-term success of the Volt (the Segway HT seems high priced and didn’t take off as envisioned). Let’s hope the Volt business plan works better.

I am keeping my mind open. Let’s see what happens before we get too crazy. I really hope initial Volts are affordable. I want one now!

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Van Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:05 pm

All this about government incentives, and the expected high cost of gas, and the fact that other car makers will have competing products, misses the essential, if the PHEV Prius has at least a 25 mile range, and costs less than $30,000, most folks will buy one instead of a $36,000 Volt.

In 2003, I was shopping for a new car, and considered buying “the last Olds” but instead of $30,000, the MSRP was around $35,000. So I bought a 2004 Avalon instead.
I still admire “the last Olds” when I park next to one in my affordable Toyota.

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Tom M San Antonio Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:08 pm

Ok , let’s take a few steps back and take a deep breath. This is not the end of the world. There are so many variables here and with the length of time involved many things can change. I’m glad some of you wern’t fighting for us in 1941, we’d all be speaking Japanese. Let’s tighten our belt and hang in there.
God Bless America !!!

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AES Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:09 pm

A couple things to consider:

-Increased cost is mostly because new components are being developed. More efficient stuff like wiper blades, AC, etc, can trickle down into other vehicles, so that is a positive long term aspect of this situation.
-Toyota is only going to LEASE plug-ins, and to commercial customers only. They are also still very cautious about lithium ion, having wasted a lot of money on heat-prone chemistries. So don’t hold your breath on that front either.
-There is a LOT of government support for plug-ins: the DOE shells out millions of dollars for battery research:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/04/doe_to_provide_.html
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/01/electro-energy.html

And that’s under the Bush administration. So the idea of a large tax credit for the Volt is not to far-fetched.

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wow Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:09 pm

I’m not surprised. I think their mistake is not realizing it will cost more in the first place. This will have a butt-load of new tech and expensive batteries. There will be allot of demand and little supply at first. They are (just now) being realistic. It’s just too bad they couldn’t have figured this out in the first place so people don’t feal misled.

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Don Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:10 pm

Lyle, no offense but you start to sound a bit like a shill.

Your numbers are generous but let’s go with them. That means that the car would save the average commuter about $1300/yr. That’s nice. But then there’s what it costs you per year too.

A comparably performing sized and appointed ICE car could be easily had for $20 to 25.(Look at the new Malibu or the Camry for example.) If I put that $15K difference to pay my mortgage down instead, or some other investment it would be saving/earning me about $1000/yr. So on balance I’ll recoup that extra $15K after 45 to 50 years of driving the car without need to replace its battery that whole time. Such a deal.

Demand won’t be great a that price point. Demand will be nearly nonexistant. At that price point they’d be better off making it upper $40’s and giving it more power/luxury appointments. Rebadge it as a Cadillac and niche market it to the CEO crowd.

I’ll pay a premium sure. I did for my Civic hybrid now 5 years old. I guess I am one of those early adopters. But that was a premium that has now paid for itself and then some. I wouldn’t pay the early adopter prremium GM is hinting at though. I’d be better off getting a pure BEV, even with limited range, for less money and renting an ICE vehicle when I really need it. Being an early adopter doesn’t mean you have to be stupid.

The way Lutz is talking GM is on the way to becoming an irrevelancy. Other companies will have to save the world instead. GM will be too busy trying not go bankrupt.

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szyszek Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:10 pm

Thanks Brian! Anybody else has numbers for me? (See the first post here). I need 9 more sets, 1 to 53. Free Volt for you if I win!

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Mark in WI Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:14 pm

At $40K, many will not be able to afford a Volt, and sales will not explode as they did for the 2004 Prius. A $6K tax credit would be great, but does not exist yet. I also wonder how much it would actually help me to afford a Volt since I am subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax, at least under 2006 law. On the flip side, if your income is low enough to avoid the AMT,then you probably would have to swallow hard to buy a $40K car.

At $25K to $30K, this car is a game changer. At $40K, it is a novelty. Same goes for the Honda fuel cell. Most people can’t afford a $600/mo. lease. A $12K tax credit for buying that car is great, but I have not heard that they are for sale, or what the price is if they are.

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mmcc Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:15 pm

13. Tom – I agree. We still have a ways to go before any finality on pricing. I’m still on board and I am not necessarily part of the green crowd. What would be difficult to swallow is a $40k car with major problems. If the pricing is closer to $40k than $30k, then it needs to be PERFECT!

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Rashiid Amul Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:18 pm

szyszek #18, “I need 9 more sets, 1 to 53. Free Volt for you if I win!”

Here are your numbers, szyszek.
8, 13, 21, 35, 47, 50

Good luck.

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AES Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:18 pm

I can understand some people thinking Lyle is trying to be a “frontman”/”shill” etc, but lets give him credit for being honest in the reporting, and promoting discussion.

After all, this is a site that GM itself reads, so if anything let’s hope that the negative comments fan the fire under their @$$’s!

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Robert.V Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:20 pm

TAX INCENTIVES DO NOT EFFECT MY MONTHLY PAYMENT. IF THEY ARE SERIOUS THEY MAY WANT TO BEND OVER FOR THE FIRST FEW YEARS, TOYOTA DID AND LOOK WHERE IT GOT THEM.

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Don Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:22 pm

Tom,

The problem with the idea of trying to recoup the cost is that there is a catch 22. They can only get costs down and start making them profitable a reasonable price point if they sell a fairly large number of them. That’s when battery costs can be expected to drop significantly, with larger volumes. They can only sell a lot of them if there is demand. Unless it is priced right there will be no demand.

Priced too high there is no demand. No demand no drop in their costs, no drop in their price, no increase in demand and so on. Priced high and you have a niche vehicle for those who will pay $15K for green braggging rights (and maybe not a great competitor for them). A good niche vehicle is a big win for a company like Tesla, or Miles, or Aptera … even for a smaller established badge like Subaru. But for GM it is greenwash and nothing more.

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Statik Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:23 pm

Lyle, I have to agree you kind of look like a shill on this one. You say ‘Reader response’ has been negative and then you list all the ‘potential positives’ and what ifs.

Your never critical of anything GM with the Volt or how they handle themselves…and you seem to have a extrordinary about of access to just about everyone and everything at GM.

I’m not saying your on the payroll or anything, but maybe you are enjoying the smoke being blown up your kaboose a little much to see the steep, steep downward curve the ‘Volt project’ is on.

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Rashiid Amul Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:23 pm

We talk a lot about tax credits that don’t exist yet. But assume that they do. Don’t forget about price gouging by the dealers. That could offset any tax credit we might get.
$40K is a disaster, but we are over 2 years away. I presume we will all still be here watching, learning, waiting. I will be and when the Volt finally comes out, I will make an informed decision. Today, my informed decision tells me to walk away and forget about the Volt. But better to make that decision when the Volt is finally for sale.

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Ed Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:25 pm

I agree Robert V. Toyota took a couple of years to bring down the cost of the Prius all the time taking losses. Look at what they make on each Prius now. Toyota was able to see the profits that would be made in te future. GM is to short sighted. By the way Van I have a Toyota Avalon with 487K miles on it. Great car but need to replace it by next year.

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AES Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:29 pm

FYI to everyone:

http://www.autoblog.com/2008/01/17/ford-hybrids-to-turn-a-profit-in-2008/

Ford’s hybrids will only become profitable in 2008. And they’ve been selling them for several years now.

So I reassert my opinion that GM should push for tax credits while at the same time taking a hit on making a profit on the car (as they have indicated they will do all along).

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Nick Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:34 pm

So much overreaction here: The big picture is that this is a transformative product in so many ways and, whatever the initial cost, we know now it is going to happen, that it is catalyzing competitors to do the same and that the initial price will come down fast. An imperfect initial price, range or release date are trivial compared to the ultimate economic and geopolitical ramifications.

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Statik Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:41 pm

I’d also like to address your ‘considerations’

2 cents vs. 15 cents a mile for gasoline?

Avg fuel price 2007: $2.78, which at 15c is 18.5 MPG…so you are comparing the VOLT to a BMW 750i? Compare it to a Cobalt at 9.7 cents (US Gov 2007 avg gas price $2.71, Cobalt 27MPG).

And ALL the rest of your points hypothetical.

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szyszek Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:43 pm

Thanks Rashiid for the numbers! Anybody else has numbers for me? (See the first post here). I need 8 more sets, 1 to 53. Free Volt for you if I win!

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ug Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:54 pm

“2 cents vs. 15 cents a mile for gasoline?
Avg fuel price 2007: $2.78, which at 15c”

Why do people automatically calculate electric vs. gas savings based on current gas prices? Does anyone really think gas is going to average $2.78 a gallon in early 2011? The way things are going, it probably will be more like $5 a gallon or more.

Worst case scenario for GM is the people who need to escape high gas prices the most are not going to be able to make the leap into the Volt. The country will be in a deep recession by then and people will have adapted mostly through reducing their gas usage by all means OTHER than purchasing a new vehicle.

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Mark Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:56 pm

It’s not going to be transformative at $40K. It would have been transformative at $25k to $30k.

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james Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 1:57 pm

I haven’t bought a brand new car since 1978. But this was to be the one for me. Even with high gas prices i can buy a lot of fuel by driving an older car instead of a new hybrid of any kind. To be the real “game changer” i hoped the Volt would be it, or a 2nd generation variation, will have to be more affordable. But that’s at today’s prices. When it comes out we’ll see what the price of gas is then and do the math. Who knows, 40K vs $6 gallon gas would make things look a lot different.
But no matter what, the free market place will settle the matter. Even if the Volt gets shorted out on price, the proving of the technology will encourage somebody to make an affordable model.

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Peter Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:02 pm

Ok, the reason I like this site/setup is the ability to leave essentially anonymous comments. I don’t see any reason to bash Lyle personally if we have the ability to respond and disagree without being censored. I’m sure he as well as many others like myself were in high hopes this project would be fruitful. Reality, however, is starting to catch up.

After long consideration this is what I plan to do. To me it seems to make the most sense. Being a two car family we need to replace both of our cars in the next 7 years (i drive a car until it has over 200k miles on it usually). I do not want to replace either one with a non-hybrid/BEV/plug-in type vehicle.

First, replace one car with the next gen prius, whenever that becomes available in the next 2 years. No plug, but a plug isn’t an option and a plug-in with range extender can never be as efficient on a long trip as a pure hybrid becuase of the extra weight of the battery. i know i know … hold on.

Some time in the next 7 years replace the second car with EITHER a BEV or EV with range extender, like the volt CONCEPT. Always drive the EV when possible (commuting, short trips to the store, etc) and for longer trips (and for the wife to commute) use the hybrid until such time as it can be replaced many years down the road with the gen 4 volt type vehicle, or maybe a BEV with some kick butt batteries that goes 800 miles on a charge

To look at the gen 1 volt at this point seems crazy, I was ‘hooked on a feeling’ for a while but that feeling is not so good now for the volt. Maybe in 7 years

Also hate to bring it up, but in calculating costs/savings you might want to throw in a cost for leasing the battery on top of the 40k, something like $150-$200 a month?

-Peter

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Ed Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:08 pm

You keep mentioning fuel going up in price but never electricity costs. At 40K the vehicle does not make economic sense. Putting the extra 10K in an interest bearing account it would outlast the vehicle you bought using the money for fuel.

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kent beuchert Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:13 pm

Now comes word a of a price correction for BYD’s serial 2008 plug-in. A new report claims the plug-in version of the car will cost $6000 more, or around $26,000, instead of the previously reported price of just under $20,000. That was the price for the NON-PLUG_IN version of the car, and got confused with the price of the plug-in version. Chinese translation problems, most likely.

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voltman Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:13 pm

If it is above 30k, they need to sell it under a different name. The whole point of badging it as a chevy is because that is the people’s car. Who will pay 30+ for a base Chevy anyway?

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james Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:31 pm

Following up on rising gas prices and not factoring rising electric rates. I also plan to use Nanosolar type panels to cover my house and car port. Thus, through netmetering, become an electricity producer, not just a consumer.

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Mark Bartosik Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:36 pm

RE #19 Mark in WI Says

Tax credits and alternative min tax.
Yeh, AMT sucks. However, the credit is currently drafted as “non refundable” which in tax speak means AMT does not apply. This is the same with solar and wind tax credits. On the tax forms the credit is applied after working out AMT.

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GXT Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:38 pm

Why are we comparing to a standard ICE? A Hybrid Camry can already be had for $~25K and at 33MPG gets $0.09/mile ($3/gallon). A Prius is $21K and at 45MPG gets $0.06/mile.

By 2010 or 2011 there will be sub $20K hybrids that get 50+ MPG. Even all-electric, the $40K(?) Volt only offers a couple of hundred dollars of savings a year over a 50MPG hybrid.

The Volt started off as great PR, but it could end up as a complete disaster. These are the kinds of actions taken by desperate companies. Too bad… Lutz was actually doing some good things with some previously very bad cars.

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Robert.V Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

Something to consider when projecting gas prices to justify 40k price tags at chevy- for the last few years we’ve been told “GAS WILL HIT $5 A GALLON THIS SUMMER!” I have yet to pay more then $3.99. Not that Im a fan of being rapped once a week when i fill my tank but I dont see that extra 10 to 15 grand being offset by the price of gas. I never bought a prius because there isn’t enough cost savings at the pump to offset the bigger car payment every month. I thought that GM was creating the next holy grail of cars and going along with voltman #37 chevy is supposed to be about the average american joe. $40,000 will buy you alot of things, unfortunetly I would rather have a house payment then a car payment the same size. This doesnt mean I wont follow the volt as its developed. It doesnt kill my interest in saving gas or my desire to buy an “erev”. It just means I am very disappointed that I won’t be hoping up and down to buy one when the time comes. I also think this is a very bad move on GM’s part. Chasing away most of america with the prospect of a high price tag when they dont even have a test mule is really stupid on there part. Maybe somebody is getting senile.

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Mark Bartosik Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:46 pm

Export market?

In the UK gas (petrol) is more like $8.50 a gallon (I could be a few pennies off).

Also the pound is worth 2 dollars.
So in the UK it would be under 20,000 GBP with maybe $10 or $11 petrol in 2011. Now 20,000 GBP is still a lot of money to UK residents, but it may make more sense in a market like that. Also by 2011 if I was currency gambling I would expect GBP to be worth more.

I’m still up for a US model Volt. I’ve already paid up front for all my fuel (excess solar capacity).

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Schmeltz Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:48 pm

This is a speculation on my behalf, but here goes anyway…

I think when the Volt finally arrives, and it is sitting there on a showroom floor, tangible and real, and you see the heads turning as they drive buy to look at this unique product, and you plug it into a wall for the first time, and you feel the surge of an electric drivetrain for the first time, and you can literally see how different this car is from every other vehicle on the road….I think a lot of people will change their minds and vote with their wallets in favor of the Volt. It is easy to say now when pounding the keys of a keyboard that GM is mis-handling this project, etc., but different when you actually SEE what your money is paying for, and take that thing out for a spin for the first time. People spend $40,000 and upwards on much more trivial vehicles and things now, is it that much more of a stretch for those same people to be in the market for state of the art EV cache?

I think that $40 grand is too high also, but when I put it into its proper context, it may seem a little more real. People also talk about this “economy of scale” in regards to the batteries like they are a law of science. It doesn’t always work that way, not immediately anyway. It will realistically take a few years of 10’s of thousands of sales to see a price decline in these proposed batteries. Maybe that’s where GM is struggling with the price of this project. I guess this is where the patience aspect will have to come into play on our behalf.

Personally, I couldn’t afford this vehicle currently if it was $20,000, but that’s just my situation, and not the position others may have. With that said, my position in rooting for GM to make this car hasn’t changed, however I will just have to start rooting for them to get the price down for more of us to afford it.

I am not an apologist for GM…I just want them to build this car and to build it right! I think once it is available, and some of the kinks are worked out, it will eventually become more affordable.

I think some of the comments directed at Lyle have been unfair and unwarranted. He provides this site and news as a fellow enthusiast, and probably at his own expense as well. I appreciate his willingness to host this forum, to conduct the interviews, and share what he learns from the people closest to this project. Don’t shoot the messenger, and don’t condemn him either for being an enthusiast.

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Mark Bartosik Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:52 pm

RE Lyle sounding like a front man.

I suspect that having met so many people working on the Volt, that Lyle simply has a lot of respect for them. Also obvious that anyone who has put so much effort into this site is more dedicated than average and will be more optimistic than most.

So Lyle, I’m right behind you.

If there is an open meeting in NYC for Volt people then I’ll be there.

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Leon Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:53 pm

I remember my Economics teacher telling us in 1991 that any new, cheaper transportation will never be significantly cheaper than gas. It’s because as the new technology comes on-line, it will decrease the demand for gas, which will lead to lower prices for gas. So even if I don’t buy the Volt, the fact that a significant number of others do will lower my transportation costs. So I win either way.

It really wasn’t that long ago that gas was a buck-a-gallon. With every tin-hat dictator drilling for oil right now (including Chavez drilling near Cuba), the supply/demand picture is going to stabilize anyway. We may even have another glut of oil inventories. It could happen, and sooner than we all expect.

I just hope GM will keep working on the Volt even if gas comes way down in price.

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Guy Incognito Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:55 pm

“Cost of fuel will be a lot less; 2 cents/mile for electricity versus 15 cents per mile for gasoline.”

Why should the cost of fuel add $10,000 to the sticker price?

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Anti-Oil Jihadi Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 2:59 pm

I could care less if it costs $40k or even $50k, I will buy one in order to do my part in fighting terrorism. Even if it don’t like the look of the vehicle.

This isn’t about financial issues (for me), this is about bankrupting our enemies.

May the Saudis and Iranians return to a traditional Islamic lifestyle. One of poverty, disease, famine, and praying to Allah for cures to medical problems. May they turn off the air conditioning, computers, satellite television (and thus American’s Funniest Home Videos), and go back to riding camels and chopping each others heads off.

Death to oil – http://www.oiljihad.org

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Mark Bartosik Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 3:09 pm

RE 47 Anti-Oil Jihadi

Well said — a little inspiration. Although I wouldn’t put quite the same way. I would rather say….

There are those who live in the USA who have made real sacrifices over the past years, in terms of their blood. The rest of us can be reasonably be expected to make some sacrifice in terms of treasure, rather than go shopping at the mall, as someone less inspiring than Anti-Oil Jihadi once advised the nation.

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Tom M San Antonio Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 3:17 pm

Please check the following:
http://www.energyandcapital.com
Read. . . TRUTH ABOUT OIL
If ya’ll think oil is comming dow, guess again

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Storm Connors Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 3:20 pm

8,9,13,26,28,47

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Rob Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 3:32 pm

If the volt is going to be over 30K for a smallish sedan, how much is the plugin VUE going to cost?

Over 30K for a small sedan = bullshit. Seriously, I’m all for plugin hybrid (or whatever the hell the term is now) but 30 grand is pushin’ it bigtime. Now maybe if they made the Tahoe plugin capable, I could see spending 40 maybe 45 ish, but for a smaller 4 seater car, no way.

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Marty McFly Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 3:36 pm

Maximum needs to badge the VOLT as a Caddy then, release a $23k E-Flex Cobalt for the rest of us…

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pcaballero Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 3:48 pm

“Act, don’t react.” GM knows how to price and market thier product. Every purchaser will help pay for the development of the car. Let’s hope the GM can offer a model that is as efficient and that they match the trim and comfort level to middle America.

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noel park Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 3:48 pm

Rasiid, #10:

Thanks.

Something good will come of all this in the end.

Keep the faith.

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Sentinel Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 4:01 pm

Even though $40k is out of my ball park, I’m not writing GM off totally yet. There still is a lot of time before it goes into production, things “could” change. I’m still VERY interested in this car and the tech behind it (Thanx Lyle!). The potential is there to really change everything!

And as for Lyle being a shill… I don’t think it’s the case. I know how it is to be passionate about something and get involved early on. I think he’s done a GREAT job with this board and I have a feeling he will continue to do so even while getting bashed.

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rdr Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 4:01 pm

Someone mentioned “Export market?”, well being an european, i can tell you you can forget about European market right there. Even though we have roughly $8/gallon in many places here, some higher, Volt would not be really popular even at $30K here.
There are even currently simply other way more sensible options, that are not present in US, and by 2011 when GM hopes to hit the market Volt will likely be almost obsolete.
The “hottest selling” Chevy here happens to be Aveo, and i am stretching the definition of “hot” here.

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Rashiid Amul Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 4:05 pm

Lyle, I don’t see you as a shrill. I see you as an honest guy who is very good at getting information. Although the last two posts are rather souring, you sir, are doing a great job. Thank you.

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Mark Bartosik Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 4:21 pm

RE rdr # 56

Export market – that was me. I’m a Brit living in USA.

Agreed there are a lot of sensible choices in Europe. It is not uncommon for small vehicles to get 50 or 60 mpg on desiel. My Dad’s Renault being such a car.

You are probably right. Also disposable income is probably less than in USA making $40K or over $30 Euro tough.

I could see an Opel version of Volt doing well around London with its congestion charge and Volt would likely be exempt (not sure if a REEV would be now). Around London incomes tend to be a lot higher too.

The market would probably be those who buy cars like Audi now (Audi not being cheap). Also Germans who are into solar power in a big way (but then it might have to be made in Germany under Opel badge to sell well — not really an export).

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lkruijsw Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 4:23 pm

Don’t forget, the gas price in 2011 might be 5 dollar a gallon.

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Statik Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 4:43 pm

James: “I also plan to use Nanosolar type panels to cover my house and car port. Thus, through netmetering, become an electricity producer, not just a consumer.”

I have contacted Nanosolar about purchasing some of their new technology directly.

I was looking to buy 150KW through my business (which is a very large amount I thought),I was basically told I was too small potatoes and capacity was already completely sold out for the next 18-24 months.

I would wager it will be at least 5-6 years before any ‘local Joes’ have the opportunity to benefit from their tech.

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Richard H. Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 4:48 pm

Do I smell EV1 all over again?

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bruce g Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 5:08 pm

Lyle walks the line between GM and its sometimes angry customers.
A difficult task and one he does very well.
I wouldnt get too emotional about price at the moment, 2011 is still three years away, a lot can happen.
The Volt is like fundamental research, it could have a positive benefit to us all even if we dont own one.
Your debate helps form the car and I think things are going well.

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David Brandow Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 5:08 pm

The issue here is how much of a premium are people willing to pay for an EREV? The higher the premium, the smaller the market segment. Compared to a Malibu at, say, $23K, a $30K Volt is a $7K premium, which, in my opinion, is a pretty reasonable premium which will attract a substantial market segment. A $40K Volt is a $17K premium that will attract a drastically reduced market segment. There have always been two issues with the Volt: will it work and will it be affordable. Both need to happen for the vehicle to be a success.

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szyszek Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 5:40 pm

Thanks Storm for the numbers! Anybody else has numbers for me? (See the first post here). I need 7 more sets, 1 to 53. Free Volt for you if I win!

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bruce g Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 5:41 pm

As I have been implying a Volt pitched to the premium market may allow a space for medium cost EV imports.
GM may live to regret that.

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Jimmy Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 5:47 pm

I always figured the Volt would wind up selling for around $35,000 (buying not leasing the battery).

I assume the $40k price Bob made includes buying the battery instead of leasing it. The cost accountants at GM need to spread development costs over all of the e-flex cars they are going to make and not just to the Volt. In my opinion, the Volt should be priced below $35,000.

If e-flex is the future for GM they should not load all of the development costs on the first model or they will be shooting themselve in the foot. I like that maximum Bob is charging ahead with the Volt.

Being known as the “green car company” will pay huge dividends on other GM car sales as well. How are the cost accountants going to handle this aspect?

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Mark Bartosik Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 5:49 pm

RE #60
I applaud you. 150KW is over x10 even large residential installs — obviously for your business.

Nano Solar’s business model is essentially to build power stations out of solar panels with carefully chosen partners for the first few years.

So you are right it will be a long time before it will be available to Joe Public at least in USA.

Since it is for business then bare in mind that 30% federal credit will disappear after Dec 31 2008, thank a few Republican senators for that.

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Jim I Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 6:02 pm

OK, let me take care of business first:

szyszek: Here is my list: 2, 11, 16, 33, 40, 53. I figure it can’t hurt to try.

To the entire group: Making personal attacks on someone you have never met, based solely on his opinions, is just plain wrong. If you are angry at GM, send them an e-mail. But don’t take it out on Lyle.

Lyle: You are doing a great job here. I hope this recent negativity does not break your enthusiasm!

Bob Lutz: Why don’t you just be quiet until this car is ready to go on sale? Obviously your recent comments cause a great deal of concern to people hoping that GM can get its act back together…

Now to the topic at hand:

I can afford the $40K, but that is not the point. I am going to wait to make a decision on buying this vehicle until:

1. I can actually see what it looks like.
2. Can see if I am comfortable sitting in it.
3. See how it performs on a test drive.
4. See what kind of options are available, to make it the car I want to purchase.
5. Have an actual price in front of me.
6. Be informed of the warranty included.
7. Know if the dealer has invested in being able to service my new technology car.

Then, and ONLY then, will I make up my mind. Anything else between now and then, is just useless aggravation.

That is how I see it, anyway….

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Jimmy Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 6:17 pm

#68 Jim I:

Well said. I am still excited about the Volt. I will also be looking at all of the items on your list when the Volt is available.

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Eco Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 6:32 pm

GM is of course, dipping deeper into your wallet every day. You see, jacking the price is a good way to get a piece of the “government incentive” that is supposed to go to YOU, the early-adopter, for making that choice. But GM wants that money for itself, so it plans to raise the price enough to get it.

But wait, there’s more. Go read the recently passed Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, that whats-his-name signed. And what will you see? Grants and loan guarantees to car makers that produce hybrids, electrics, and like vehicles. Millions, yes millions of your tax dollars are already authorized to be gifted to Bob and friends to pay for all the things that you think are going to increase the cost of the Volt. A congressional appropriation, and they are giong to cash your check for putting out the Volt.

So, the 64 million dollar question is, would Bob have confessed the likely price of the Volt BEFORE the President signed the legislation giving GM so much money? You decide!

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David L Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 7:18 pm

Here are some number for you, “szyszek”:
3, 6, 9, 18, 36, 40
Good Luck!

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GSP Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 7:39 pm

3 11 24 42 48 50

Good Luck!

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Jeff M Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 7:42 pm

I haven’t had a chance to read the replies in this thread yet, but I have to wonder why Lyle created essentially a duplicate thread for the same topic?

Like Ed (#5), I’ve also been wondering if Lyle has lost his objectivity (relatively speaking) with all that wining and dining and possible expense paid trips GM has lavished on him? Lyle’s other post smelled like spin, this one definitely smacks of it

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Bernie G Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 7:44 pm

> $30k…?? This sounds typical GM… They continue to play with us… I guess I will do what i have done in the past… switch to Toyota… bernie g.

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Kyle Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 7:49 pm

Wow,
This is so sad. I agree with 34 – it won’t have the impact we need it to, for the US economony, GM’s health, or our ability to stop sending dollars overseas for oil (#49) if it’s priced too high – $40K sure sounds too high. How different a situation GM would be in if it had continued development of the serial hybrid version of the EV1 – by now they might be on their 3rd generation of the technology and really be able to keep prices affordable. Instead, their bean counters are having to try to price the car to recoup completely new non-recurring engineering costs, and do it on a timeline that does not allow for loss-leaders to let the market develop.
GM – transform our market, please, even if you have to issue more bonds. We’re still pulling for you!
Lyle, thanks for the great coverage, as always.

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thatsanicepicture Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 8:08 pm

Being mean to Lyle just isn’t right. Looks like the old “Kill the Messenger” to me.

I must admit I wondered all along how GM was going to do it on a Chevy. I’m with others that say this is closing in on the Cadillac price point.

I know they have to recoup investment. However “Post-It Notes” didn’t cost $100 a pack for two years.

I think GM will figure out what the right price is. That’s what the bean counters do. I’ll wait and see.

My wife siad this is looking like a Re-Volt!

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Jeff M Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 8:19 pm

Peter (#36) says “plug-in with range extender can never be as efficient on a long trip as a pure hybrid becuase of the extra weight of the battery”

What did Sean Connery say about never saying never?

In any case, it’s hard to know what you mean when you say “pure hybrid”. Do you really mean “parallel hybrid”? If so…

… then you do realize the weight of the batteries in a series electric hybrid (aka “range extended” EV) is partly offset by a much smaller engine and transmission.

Also the larger batteries may also mean that more energy can be recouped by the regenerative braking, where as in a parallel hybrid with a smaller battery, excess energy is wasted. If your long trip was mostly non-highway this may give it a higher mpg (even on highway if it’s hills like here in the Northeast, more of that down slope energy can be recouped).

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Dave B Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 8:34 pm

Lyle,

Keep up the great work. I’m going to follow the Volt daily with keen interest. When it does finally come time to pick which EV I’m going to buy (if there is a choice), then GM had better have a darn good product for $40K. I appreciate your work as does 99% of the people here–regardless of what’s said in the thoughtless ranting.

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Frank Vanderhoofven Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 8:35 pm

As I have said before the serial hybrid and the parallel hybrid should be similar in price. The parallel has a transmission the serial does not need. The serial has a bigger battery that the parallel so there should be some offset here. Just for argument sake, if the battery is $3000 for the Malibu, and $6,000 for the Volt, then the Volt should should be about $3,000 more than the Malibu. The Malibu starts at about $23,000 so the Volt should start at about $26,000. $30,000 is ridiculous unless it says Cadillac on the front instead of Chevy.

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Jeff M Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 8:35 pm

Ed (#37)… “You keep mentioning fuel going up in price but never electricity costs”

All energy prices will continue to go up, so you are correct to point that out. However if the trend of the last several years continues to play out, electricity prices will rise at only a fraction of the rate of transportation fuels. That’s in a big part thanks to the 1970’s oil crisis, after which we significatly reduced our national grid’s dependence on oil. According to the book “Plug-in Hybrids” by Sherry Boschert, “Page 196: In the United States as a whole, using the 2005 mixture of power plants (50% coal, 19% nuclear, 19% natural gas, 6% hydroelectric, 3% petroleum, and 3% renewable), …”.

I know my electric rates seems relatively stable the last 4 years, and thanks to CPF bulbs, my electric bill has been less than it was 4 years ago.

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kent beuchert Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 8:50 pm

Remember everyone, the BYD DM (dual mode, or serial hybrid) will also not be as cheap as originally reported, apparently due to lazy reporters who didn’t speak Chinese and weren’t to careful about their facts – originally the car was to cost $19,900, but now we learn that that price is for the non-
plug-in version – the plug-in version will go for $6,0000 more, or $26,000, or close to what we all believed the Volt would cost. For whatever reason, Bob Lutz apparently was confused about the pricing
back when he quoted “nicely under $30,000.”
I don’t know what’s involved in “cost engineering” or how much that could reduce the cost, but I am certain that the cost of the batteries will definitely be coming down. A lot. And I think that is where much, if not most, of the cost reductions will come from.

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Jeff M Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 8:58 pm

Leon (#47)…

Did your economics teacher take into account both peak oil and a major increase in the middle class in China and India pushing worldwide demand through the roof?

The switch over to non-petroleum derived fuels (and corn based ethanol doesn’t count as it uses almost as much fossil fuels to produce as one gets out of it) won’t happen at a fast enough rate to offset the dwindling supply and skyrocketing demand.

As far as all those tin-hats, those supplies are drops in the bucket compared to the decrease from the large mature oil fields. There’s still plenty of oil, but what’s left is harder and more expensive to bring up (or extract from tar sands).

On the other hand renewable electrical power will continue to get cheaper.

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Jeff M Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 9:13 pm

Eco (#72)…

I said the same thing about tax credits in the other thread. They essentially artificially raise the price.

The Prius is a good example… that credit is now gone (or almost gone) and low and behold, Toyota announced a $2,000 price cut. Would have saved everyone the hassle of applying for the tax credit if instead the government simply directly gave Toyota a check for everyone they sold in the US.

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Only FromJapan Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 9:14 pm

Only Japanese cars are good and only they should be doing business in this country. Hiroyasu F.

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Donan I Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 9:39 pm

#85
Isn’t that a bit narrow minded?
I really expect the Volt to come in under $36,000.
I expect the government to offer a tax credit.
I expect gas prices to continue to rise especially as we continue our war overseas and remain dependent on foreign oil.
I too would consider paying a premium to encourage more electric cars to be made and improved upon as well as reduce our dependency on foreign oil.
I think the Volt’s timely introduction will play a huge role in its success (i.e. what other competitors will be available at the time of its release).
It will take approximately 10 years of ownership at 12,000 miles driving per year using the comparison of .15 cents per mile for a full gasser versus .02 cents for the proposed Volt with a 40 mile range. This was added only as a math correction to the forementioned 45 to 50 year recupement mentioned by Don earlier not as an incentive for anyone to think that the Volt is being made and sold to save them money.
Thanks for letting me ramble.

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Robert.V Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 10:09 pm

I paid $10k for my Accent. It gets 30mpg avg. I drive 300 miles per week. It costs me about $30 a week in gas. If I bought a Volt at $40k and never put a drop of gas in it and it recharged its battery for free every night by stealing power from the vacant house next door, how many years would it take to make up the $30k premium? Would the car still be on the road by then? Would fossil fuels be used up and everyone be driving EV’s from china and pointing and laughing at me for having an ICE.

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Jimmy Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 11:15 pm

Everyone seems to be doing a lot of sole searching about the Volt. People are considering if it still makes sense to support Lyle in his efforts to encourage GM to follows through with the Volt. We have all come a long way. It has really been an adventure thus far. I think we should revisit the some of the reasons we were attracted to the Volt in the first place.

http://www.thecaseforpluginhybrids.com/

Lyle …I am going to continue to support you and your site for the duration. There will be ups and downs along the way but you can count on my support. Keep up the good work.

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Robert.V Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 11:32 pm

Jimmy #89 In regards to getting off of oil:

1. This is where I work. http://www.johnsoncontrols.com/publish/us/en/sustainability/environmental_stewardship/hybrid_batteries_at.html

2. I’m mostly pissed that we didnt get the contract because my discount wont be as good. We supply most of the electronics GM stuffs in its crappy cars.

3. Why would I look at the bottom of my feet when deciding weither or not to buy an over priced car of any kind? My soul is where i think i would search.

As for Lyle, I don’t hold anything against him. I probably feel the same as most of the people who are posting negative comments. We are mad because GM got our hopes of getting off of oil for $25k up then shot them into the ground with one stupid comment. I think Lyle has done a great job following this and I dont blame him for backing it still. We are years away from the final product. Assuming they complete the project. A few cooler heads have stated this. On the other hand, if GM sees enough angry people maybe they will try a little harder to keep the price down. The comment about getting the car out ontime instead of cost control pisses me off. Shouldnt it be both? If we have to wait this long why not wait a little longer to keep the price down??

Lyle please keep up the good work. Dont let hot heads like me get you down. And for anyone putting Lyle down, its not his fault, stfu!

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Anti-Oil Jihadi Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 11:37 pm

Don’t forget how much each American now owes because of the Iraq war (which I support), and will owe because of an upcoming war with Iran (which I support).

That’s probably a lot more than the price difference you all seemed so worried about over a vehicle that has the potential to put the middle east in its place.

Wise up people; don’t be penny wise & pound foolish. Keep an eye on the big picture.

death to oil http://www.oiljihad.org

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David L Says:
January 17th, 2008 at 11:56 pm

… just so everyone can get their facts straight – the top five countries that the US imports oil from (in descending order) are: Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela and Nigeria. These top five exporting countries accounted for 74 percent of United States crude oil imports in November 2007.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

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David L Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:04 am

I’ve been reading posts on this site for about three months now. I want to commend Lyle for his enthusiasm and honesty in “telling the facts” regarding progress with the development of the Volt. It seems that many people are misdirecting frustrations with GM, oil companies, politicians, etc. at Lyle – which I think is most unfortunate. If people keep on complaining about Lyle being a frontman/shill/etc. – maybe he’ll just close down this site (that we have all found to be so useful) and do something where he doesn’t have to face this abuse. Just my 2¢ …

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Mark Bartosik Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:48 am

Another way to think of costs of oil…

About $440 billion / year spent by USA on importing oil. That’s about $1100 per person. Or about $3300 per family (guessing average of 3). That is PER YEAR, of your money going out of the country, going to fund competing economies and worse (if you follow Oil Jehadi).

Then there is the cost of removing CO2 from air. If the true cost of oil was paid, then there would be a surcharge to pay to remove an equal amount of pollution from the environment. Ignoring that cost merely passes it to your children with interest. It is called global warming.

For Iraq war it is about $1.5 trillion including long term care for vets etc., or about $4500 per person, or $12000 per family.

Even if I’m off my a factor of 2, and I could be, then the Volt actually appears cheap compared with these costs.

Trouble is that it requires some personal sacrifice so that all can benefit, and a lot less than soldiers are asked to make.

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Brian M Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 1:18 am

I for one am glad Lyle is devoting so much of his time to this site, regardless of the fairweather fans. Don’t you people appreciate getting the latest news, be it “good” or “bad”?

In fact, I’m going to click on a few ads now…

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drivin98 Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 6:46 am

There are ads?

I hope those who can’t afford $40,000 for a Volt, like me, stick around the site anyway. Lots of great information shows up here via Lyle and some of the commenters. For instance that interview on the EESTOR, that rocked.

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kert Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 7:35 am

If everybody here is such a patriot and wants to get rid of foreign oil, why not act now ? Get a used prius with warranty expired and convert it to a plug-in now. Likely end up cheaper than Volt.
Or just take any old ICE car and let a conversion shop convert it to BEV.
Or buy one of these NEVs, or hell, even an electric bike.

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TomW Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 8:22 am

I must toss my hat in with everyone here. I can do math, and I see the cost savings over time. Its actually rather one-sideded (and exponentially so depending on battery life). Sadly our economy is not in a state that will allow me to afford paying the expected +30,000 price tag.

I’m going to test drive a SMART car this afternoon. They are priced closer to what I can afford. And after that, I’ll test drive a Civic Hybrid.

Sorry GM, back to the drawing board.

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Don Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 8:37 am

Hold anything against Lyle??? Of course not. I feel for him. Lyle has done a lot of work here, invested time and resources that he could have been putting into his practice. He’s had to hire people to help him run it; it’s gotten that big. He brought us news bad and good. It’s been paying off, probably better than he could have imagined. And all the sudden a large number of his regular visitors are saying “count me out” and “I’m done” … ? After his investments and its current pay-off that’s gotta make him a little nervous.

But remember Lyle: they are all coming here to say it and to discuss it and will likely keep coming here to complain and defend as GM pulls that idea off the flagpole and tries something else. Most of us want GM to pull this off as Lutz first imagined and we will follow along even as GM bungles it along even if we start to feel we are watching a train wreck in progress. You have built this to the success it is not by apologizing for GM but because your honest interest was to help hold their feet to the fire and that came through. The fact that doing so has helped build a buzz for the Volt has helped gain you access that few others can get. You have suceeded in building that following because you haven’t generally been a mere cheerleader.

So no, no shooting the messenger, just reminding someone whose work I respect why we all respect his work. I may not buy a Volt at that price point but I’m still interested and will still visit this site with regularity.

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joshkevin Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 9:30 am

szyszek, I’ve got some for you.

12, 52, 18, 24, 26, 41

Come on, Daddy needs a new Volt.

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Jon P. Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 9:37 am

Why should we have to pay for GM doing the research for the Volt. As far as i’m concerned they’ve got expectations so high for this if the F it up, you can bet the Japanese takeover of the car market will only come faster. There trying to save there company, take a loss on each car, i’m sure the US gov will bail them out, like it just did to the lenders, and after 9/11 to the airlines. Toyota did it to help with demand for the prius. “Green” people don’t buy 40K cars, it goes against everything they believe in.

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StevenT Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 11:05 am

Lyle,
Keep up the good work. As I said a few days ago this is a lively bunch of bloggers. I too will be disappointed if the Volt cost 40g. however I will wait and see what develops. I agree this is a setback for many people who follow this site, myself included, but I try to look at the larger picture. I have 3 sons and 3 granduaghters. I have never been an “enviormental” person before, but I see all the changes aroud me and I am worried. What does the future hold for my kids and grandkids? If you look at all the cars on the horizon coming out(Phoenix, Miles, and others) they are all priced in the 30’s and 40’s.so GM’s price is within the norm for 1st generation. Although this prices a lot of people out initially I think enough of the American public will embrace these cars and prices will drop. To me I would prefer a Volt, and if I can somehow how afford one, I will get one. With that being said, I feel that we must embrace the new technologies that are coming out, to wean off oil regardless of who makes them or we will have a lot more to worry about than a 40g car.

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Jim D Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 11:54 am

I was excited about the savings in not buying gas, and also oil independence.

I could probably buy gas for 2 lifetimes on $10K.

This is not OK with me.

I will watch what happens, and make a competitive selection.

I may have to buy E85 or Diesel.

That would be a disappointment.

Economics and competition will tell.

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szyszek Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:23 pm

Thank all for the numbers. I received a total of 7 sets of numbers from Brian, Rashiid, Storm, Jim, David, GSP and joshkevin. The drawing is on Saturday and I will play them all. Good luck gentelmen!

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Lyle Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:32 pm

To all:
This site was started to galvanize a public force that would help to ensure GM built the Volt.

I understand anger at a change in price plan.

But, we really don’t know what it will cost in the end.

I don’t take offense to the comments, I’ve always promoted free speech here even if it’s directed at me.

We shall carry on.

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Jim I Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:57 pm

szyszek: I look forward to your announcement that I will be receiving a freee Chevy Volt!!! And I hope it is not one of the diecast models……….

Lyle: Like I have been saying here from the beginning – “YOU ARE THE MAN!!!!”

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szyszek Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 12:58 pm

Hi Lyle. I don’t think anybody is angry at you, why would we? You are doing a terrific job and we are all grateful. I, for one, will still follow the development of the car. I am very excited about the technology and I think plugins are the future. But like most people here, I am disappointed that the plans are to price the Volt out of the range of an average Joe. Disappointed but not angry. GM is a business and they have to make business decisions. A lot can change till 2010/2011 so it is still possible the Volt will come out priced under $30k or even under $25k (I think GM will have to sell it under $25k to start a revolution, maybe they will release Volt as a Caddy first to get the $$$ out of the early adopters). I can wait. Lyle, keep up the good work and thanks for creating this site. Chris

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Computer-codger Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 1:13 pm

Well it looks like GM got what they were looking for, money from the government. The link below says, “The US Department of Energy will invest up to $30 million for cost-shared development and demonstration projects supporting Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs). Combined with a minimum 50% cost share with industry applicants, research investment will total up to $60 million.”
http://www.greencarcongress.com/
It looks like it is tailored for the Volt. “This Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) seeks projects that will find solutions to improving battery performance so vehicles can deliver up to 40 miles of electric range without recharging, and address critical barriers to achieving DOE’s goal of making PHEVs cost-competitive by 2014 and ready for commercialization by 2016.” I don’t like the 2014-2016 dates however.

It’s a shame that the government wasted the $1.2B on the Freedom Car (hydrogen car), which is still 20 years out. This $30-60M is a drop in the bucket for PHEVs compared to what they have already spent on the Freedom Car.

But now that the government is going to help with the development you will see the price drop back to the less than $30k, MAYBE!! This may have been GM’s strategy of putting the $40k price out there in the first place.

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Computer-codger Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 1:20 pm

Sorry the link should have been.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/01/doe-to-invest-u.html#more

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john1701a Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 1:29 pm

>> I don’t think anybody is angry at you, why would we?

At least feelings are finally being expressed.

Since early last year, I stated these very concerns about price. But since my background is 7 years of Prius ownership & support, my comments were simply ignored.

Lyle unfortunately becomes the lightning-rod for this stuff. But the fact that people can be so open is how progress is made. Without that, no next step would be possible.

It’s what happens following this that matters.

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Van Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 2:30 pm

Hype is not helpful. The Volt has been over promised and now that GM is backing away, the failure to meet expectations has led to frustration. Much wiser to under promise and over deliver.

Right now I expect the Volt to be available in showrooms and on sale to the public in 2011. I expect it to have an AER of at least 25 miles. I expect it to cost less than $40,000.

And I agree with the tons of posts that say we should not shoot the messenger, keep up the good work Lyle, and thanks for providing such a useful site.

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Wise Golden Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 3:13 pm

It will have a lot of engineering expense that will be spread over a small number of vehicles. At 40K I’m still in, but I want it to feel and look like a $40k car. I drive a Cadillac now that was about $45k, so I’d like to see it remarketed as a Cadillac instead of a Chevy. People will feel a lot better spending 40 K for the Cadillac name. Keep in mind though, at 40K it’s not even close to being the most expensive Chevy. Some of the trucks and SUV’s are in the 50’s

I think they should introduce it as a Buick Electra, or a Cadillac ACDc. That’s my $0.02. Free advise for GM.

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Wise Golden Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 4:47 pm

Another idea for GM to consider would be the idea of capturing carbon offset credits for each vehicle produced. I don’t know a lot about carbon offset credits, but it seems to me that a car like the Volt might be eligible for a couple thousand dollars worth of offsets. I don’t know if the current law would allow for it, but if not, it should be changed quickly to allow these credits to be applied to the Volt.

By doing so, GM could sell the credits to polluting industries and then apply the revenue to the Volt, lowering the cost to the consumer and benefiting the industry that purchased the credits.

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MontereyJack Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 5:21 pm

I haven’t read all of the posts here, but I did a quick look -
2 cents/mile vs. 15 cents/mile for 15,000 miles/year (I always drive more, but that’s a little more than 40 miles a day for a year)

This would equal about $150/month in savings (oversimplified calculation?) (not counting any tax incentives or other incentives that may be available) that could potentially applied to the delta in the monthly payment….

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Stevan Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 7:47 pm

As long as it’s not more than 35K I think I might be able to afford it. Of course, I’ll need to save up 10 grand for the down-payment and also trade-in my car, but it’ll be well worth it!

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Doug Korthof Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 9:07 pm

Just the start of the GM back-tracking and weaseling.

Look for them to lease the batteries for $600/month. Then when people complain, they say Electric cars aren’t wanted.

They tried the same thing with the EV1, $599 per month lease to discourage lessees.

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Chris C Says:
January 18th, 2008 at 10:38 pm

I found this site because the technology sounded so amazing. I believe in it for the reasons the rest of you do. I like many have no loyalty to GM but to my country (play music here).

If GM doesn’t do this though someone will, the genee is out of the bottle, the idea is out there, there is demand, it will be satisfied. If not by GM then by others. I am grateful to GM for publicizing the idea to the point that there is now no going back but if they want to kill the idea by pricing themselves out of the market, then so be it.

Someone is going to do this. Soon. Affordably. And when they do, I’m going to buy one.

Chris

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Stop arguing Says:
January 19th, 2008 at 1:09 am

Doug Korthof is right, GM has no faith and they deserve to die within one year, all GM employees, please leave now and go somewhere else. No future to stay with this sunking Titanic, it is doomed to sink into the PAcific ocean!

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Brian Geppert Says:
January 19th, 2008 at 2:06 am

I don’t know if I can afford something over $30k – that’s the price of a decent solar panel system, and it actually makes money. Hopefully by 2010, solar will be even cheaper…

GM will have competitors – Mitsubishi’s Miev, Miles XS500, Aptera, WhiteStar, to name a few. Hopefully one of them keeps it under $30k.

I have a 1992 Civic VX that gets 40-50 mpg, so the cost of gas isn’t much of an incentive to switch. I will gladly buy a Volt for $30k because I don’t like being dependent on oil nor polluting the environment. (Electricity isn’t totally clean, but at least it is a point source that can be regulated if we choose.)

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mmcc Says:
January 19th, 2008 at 6:15 am

When asked about the future pricing of the Volt, Maximum Bob’s reply should have been: “We’ll jump off that bridge when we get to it.”

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jbfalaska Says:
January 19th, 2008 at 11:49 am

Well, at $40K, I think that knocked out the waiting list. Dissapointed.

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Donan Says:
January 19th, 2008 at 1:24 pm

Anyway believing that E85 is a viable alternative, I encourage you to research this first. It has very disappoining returns regarding mpg and total energy consumption.
Diesels have proven to be at least 25% to 30% more energy efficient than gas ICEs and I wish more manufacturers would utilize an oil burner versus a gasser as the engine of choice for their upcoming electrics. To me, it looks like Toyota and GM are leading the way to a full electric though as mentioned several other manufacturers have products in progress that may be available by 2012. I will wait to hear the official pricing sheet from GM come 2010. Until then, I really appreciate all the effort and information disseminated by Lyle at this website and will continue to browse it daily for updates.

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Jake Says:
January 19th, 2008 at 2:35 pm

I can’t believe how people just throw in the towel after Bob Lutz makes another random comment. We’ve already talked about how maybe he doesn’t always say the most accurate things. Why are you hanging on his every word? The Volt will be the first truly mass-market car of this type, if everything goes as planned. If you want one, why don’t you just wait a couple years after it comes out to see if the price drops? You don’t HAVE to buy the first model year to be a Volt supporter.

Take a chill pill!

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Michael Says:
January 19th, 2008 at 7:49 pm

Gang, this is pretty typically how US carmakers think. They are looking at moderate sales with HIGH margins, just as they get with their humongous SUVs and their Hemi muscle cars. This is not intended as a mass market, Camry-like seller. Just look at the design. Totally unpractical for the typical American household. But that’s OK. Because Toyota or Honda or Think will step in to fill that EV void. And GM will be left wondering what they did wrong yet again.

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Josh Baverstock Says:
January 19th, 2008 at 8:14 pm

Even at $40k, I’d still buy a Chevy Volt if it lives up to its promises.

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Ruby Says:
January 20th, 2008 at 4:46 am

Instead of a $10,000 40 mile battery car for the elite, GM should make a mass-market car with a 20 mile range.
“About 47 percent of all miles put on vehicles in a day are within the first 20 miles of travel”
-http://tinyurl.com/25c8uq
Also, the 50 mpg didn’t-plug-it-in burn rate should further halve gas usage. So we’re talking a 75% gas reduction with a 20 mile battery range.
Stop calling it an electric car(asterisk/acronym). That will just get rich green techies.
Just say you’ll use a quarter the gas, and still get 50mpg even if you don’t plug it in.
My .02

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Kyle Says:
January 22nd, 2008 at 1:15 am

Lyle,

GM needs to understand how much people have been disconcerted by this $40K potential price. If we look at your survey, “How much are you willing to pay to own a Volt?” and compare those that are willing to pay $35K or more for the Volt versus the rest, and we make the giant leap of faith that these numbers are truly representative of the market, then there is a potential 10x greater market for this car if they can keep it in the low $20Ks (91 vs 9). That would transform the market. (Give up some range and battery and you’d still have a great E-Rev).
Also, please note that this posting and the previous one are really the same topic. This makes this easily your #2 most commented posting. That should get the General’s attention!

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Al Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:26 pm

Let’s see if I remember a single time in my 30+ years of car-buying when a car went down in price…. NEVER!

In most engineering enterprises, the engineering/development/startup costs are recovered over the life-cycle of the product – Electronics being the exception.

Toyota Hybrid Camry – $30,000 & 40 mpg

$10,000 buys at least 3000 gallons of gas or 120,000 Miles in the new Camry. So at < 120,000 miles I need a new BIG LI Battery for the Volt. I can still trade/sell the Camry for a Premium(good quality) and get a new one for about the same $$$s as the new Pack for the old Volt plus my trade. Can’t see where an old Chevy beats a new Camry.

25% error in cost estimate fairly far into the design cycle??? Cat can’t change its stripes!

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Donan Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:14 pm

Al,

Many cars become cheaper via incentives, dealer discounts and rebates. You can still buy a Pontiac Aztek or a Pontiac GTO new today for less than they were 2 or 3 years ago for example. Cars not moving off the lots fast enough get such incentives. $10,000 does not buy 3000 gallons of gas where I live nor will it over the life of your Camry. BTW, Toyota is having problems with the transmissions on the new Camry. Now, averaging 12,000 miles a year over your projected 120,000 miles worth of gas is 10 years. Your used Camry will be worth less than $10,000 and the cost of a new one would be around $40,000, a difference of $30,000. The battery pack will cost less than $3500 not $30,000. Also, the Camry Hybrids are getting more like 37 mpg while if you drive 20 miles to work you will get there in a Volt for .02 cents per mile or .40 cents while the Camry will cost you approximately $1.65 to work. Multiply this over 10 trips to and from work per week time 52 weeks per year times 10 years. The cost for fueling the Camry over the 10 years equals $8565 while the Volt would cost you over the same distance $2080. A difference of over $6400 subtract a new battery at $3500 for the Volt and I am still ahead by almost $3000 over the Camry. Hmmm… You were saying?

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Al Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 8:21 pm

#129 does Chevy math & reasoning. Cars don’t go up yr over yr in retail price? Let’s all wait a while when inflation (over 4 % last yr) raises wages and car prices stay the same or go down! Oh wait, the Camry increased 10K in 10 yrs but everything else went down. Hmmm but the Volt will cost less – take out word for it!
My gas today is 2.84/gal reg. I will see 3.33 gas but not soon for regular, especially in a RECESSION. I disagree with the resale value of a Toyota anything in 10 yrs being 10K. Oops, I get a head start too, the Camry Hybrid is real and selling well. I can start saving the world now. My current Camry has over 200K miles and still going strong. Not too many Chevys get 200K, mine never did. Lotsa luck, I thought Chevy might be trying harder but alas, same old tricks.
$3500 for a new Volt LI battery pack and every one is scheming some deal to lease them – sorry Charlie that is a little hard to believe. That’s right the Volt now costs 10K more than the Camry, was that because the electric motor or controller got more expensive??? Late comer to the accounting party was the battery! Try battery costs around 15K by the time to replace if you are lucky. I like the VW TDi offerings better than this!

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Kristopher Miller Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 12:22 pm

I simply become ill when I research these alternatives. I have been building recycled vegetable oil burning cars for some time, but they are unreliable and still toxic to the environment; not really a viable option for reliable transportation. I was excited by the introduction of ethanol cars, but huh, they only come in giant trucks, soulsucking SUVs and 8 cylinder geriatric cruisers. Now what kind of person interested in eco-friendly cars is going to buy a 16 cylinder ethanol powered super-duty, motor-home pulling truck? And then the Prius! what a joke. I leaned down my 93 Saturn, tinkled with gear ratios, and drive slower than Prius friends and equal their gas mileage. And now the Chevy Volt. Look at that futuristic, pseudo-sports car mess. Hello Chevy! Simple poeple want simple, cheap, clean cars! Not to spend $30,000 to look like the Jetsons. Sorry, I cant continue.

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Ken Newman Says:
January 27th, 2008 at 1:02 am

I agree with Comment #’s 45 and 70.
I consider my car a “Business tool” where I use it in my career. I need the vehicle to be reliable and very economical on gas/electricity (thus my looking into the Volt).

A 100% “Bumper To Bumper” Warranty is the only way to. My previous car (Honda Insight hybrid) had TWO automatic transmissions replaced before 68,000 miles.

If the increased price of the Volt INCLUDES a “Bumper to Bumper” warranty (AND) “GAP” Insurance coverage, then I would be more receptive.

In regards to a rebate–I would question how easy the IRS makes it for owners (LIKE THE Volt) to actually “RECORD” the rebate discount on the tax forms. In case you aren’t aware it was practically IMPOSSIBLE to know the correct method to obtain the $3,000 rebate on my taxes. (You had to write “Clean Fuel” above line 33 (AND) write “$3,000″ on line 33. If you did not perform all three tasks on the correct line you did not get the rebate. Good luck in finding these instructions on the IRS tax forms, there weren’t any!

If GM can’t get the price down to an “afforadable” level then GM needs to think “out of the box”, maybe partner with Utility companies (like net metering storage), oil companies that are willing to expand in different areas (like Mesa Petroleum, in Dallas, TX), etc.

Remember: Henry Ford wanted a solid block 8 cylinder engine when ALL Ford engineers said that an engine that large could not be created. 1.5 years later the Ford engineers had a “breakthrough” that realized Ford’s dream.

If GM REALLY wants this Volt to succeed they will make it happen.

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The Price of the Volt

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