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Lutz Now 95% Confident Volt will be Built, 55% Confident it will Arrive in 2010

December 20th, 2007 | Posted in: Production, Release Date, Timeline

lutz07.jpg

In his latest interview, with Forbes reporter Jerry Flint, the Volt’s main proponent GM vice-chairman Bob Lutz was asked about his confidence in being able to produce the Volt.

Lutz told the reporter on a scale of 1 to 10 he rated his confidence that the Volt will get produced as a 9.5.

This number dropped to 5.5 when he was asked about his confidence in achieving a 2010/2011 release.

Lutz said:

We’re holding people’s feet to the fire for the very end of 2010 into 2011. But that can slip, depending on how the development goes.

He also cautioned, regarding the Volt’s rollout:

It probably won’t be a flawless launch

On a more positive note, Lutz did mentioned he was pleased with the initial tests of the CPI/LG battery packs.

It’s Lutz expressing a slight shift in enthusiasm? Are significant hurdles arising? Only time will tell.

Source (Forbes)

Posted by: Lyle

41 Responses to “Lutz Now 95% Confident Volt will be Built, 55% Confident it will Arrive in 2010”


  1. noel park
    Vote -1 Vote +1noel park     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 12:36 pm

    In the article I previously mentioned in the Tuesday LA Times, “A long road to mileage goals”, there is one interesting comment:

    “Toyota, for example, recently announced that in 2008 it would roll out flexible fuel versions of its Sequoia SUV and introduce stripped-down Prius hybrids at a significantly lower cost.”

    At least they have learned one thing from GM – how to game CAFE through the “flex-fuel” loophole.

    More importantly, this only confirms what has raised here before about the specter of under $20,000 hybrids.

    Come on Bob, as a former Marine you, of all people, must understand the meaning of “Lead, follow, or get out of the way.”  

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  2. Jim G
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jim G     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 12:39 pm

    That’s a pretty significant step back from what he said a month ago! If you don’t remember the quote: “He said GM is now ‘fully committed’ to producing the car.” (http://www.gm-volt.com/2007/11/14/my-chevy-volt-question-to-bob-lutz/) I don’t like the sound of that at all.
    No better is the timeline. He is now only pegging the odds as slightly better than 50-50 on getting it by the end of 2010? That doesn’t exactly sound like “feet to the fire” to me.  

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  3. Don
    Vote -1 Vote +1Don     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 12:47 pm

    Sounds like political posturing to the powers that will decide how much tax credit to give EREVs and how, exactly, to determine mpg credit for fleet mix. “If you don’t make it worth our while we might not be able to get this out at all … now what tax credit will you give on this? And how much will this help us meet our CAFE mandates?”

    As to by end of 2010 vs in 2011 … maybe that’s because A123 doesn’t have enough capacity to deliver by then … or maybe they want to se what the tax credit will be first?

    Still, this hedging and hemming makes him, and by extension GM look bad.  

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  4. Jim I
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jim I     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 1:06 pm

    I am not happy with these comments at all….

    This is off topic, but I just got this in an e-mail today. Actually, they give a delivery date as well, so maybe it is not all that off-topic!

    http://fiskerautomotive.createsend4.com/viewEmail.aspx?cID=F81C496399C49A31&sID=E168C88981892DADB93B32EA263377A4&dID=5CB9CB5A1CE688CE  

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  5. Tom
    Vote -1 Vote +1Tom     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 1:18 pm

    I don’t see how this is out of line with what he’s said before at all. 95% is almost 100%. A company can be fully committed to something and still not have it work out. And he has always emphasized that 2010 is really aggressive and any one thing could slip the schedule.  

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  6. Rashiid Amul
    Vote -1 Vote +1Rashiid Amul     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 1:35 pm

    “It probably won’t be a flawless launch”

    That statement scares me to hell.
    What does this mean? The car could be a pile
    of crap when it launches? I hope not.
    That will destroy everything. I would love to know what he meant by that quote. I could care less if the Volt comes out at the end of 2010 or not. It must must must come out nearly flawless and beautifully reliable. IT MUST !  

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  7. Daniel
    Vote -1 Vote +1Daniel     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 2:17 pm

    ^^^
    Rashiid,

    I don’t think he’s necessarily referring to the quality and build of the car. I think he means that around launch time there won’t be enough Volts to meet demand, because for example if they don’t start production of the Volt in January 2010, it’s likely that these parts will be in short supply?

    Does that sound right, I could be wrong. But I don’t think he was “attacking” the credibility of the vehicle.

    I think people are taking it the wrong way, but it’s his fault because of the way he worded it  

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  8. Rashiid Amul
    Vote -1 Vote +1Rashiid Amul     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 2:33 pm

    Daniel #7, I sure hope you are right. It does seem strange that he would bash the vehicle, but that is what it sounded like to me.

    I was part of the 60% of new car buyers that wouldn’t consider a GM or American car.
    Other than my Subaru Outback (which is costing me a lot of money to fix), I have had great luck with my foreign cars. But I am very excited, if not a bit gun shy, to purchase my first American car in 24 years (by 2010). It must be a good one.  

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  9. voltman
    Vote -1 Vote +1voltman     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 2:46 pm

    Give him props for shooting straight. NOTHING is 100%.

    Someone giving me 50/50 odds on something happening exactly on schedule 3 years from now is actually pretty good. I would assume that when you build a normal car you give time for tons of testing and tons of “do over time”. They probably have very little of that in the time budget and therefor 2-3 things that go wrong could derail the schedule. It could be a MILLION things. The wiring, the HVAC system, the software, voltage regulator 1569 may be defective.  

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  10. Jim I
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jim I     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 2:56 pm

    I clicked on the link to read the entire article.

    I understand what voltman said, and there is quite a bit of validity to it, but I find it really interesting that this comes out the day after the CAFE law was signed…

    There are no coincidences.  

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  11. Guy Incognito
    Vote -1 Vote +1Guy Incognito     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 3:26 pm

    [quote comment="20750"]That’s a pretty significant step back from what he said a month ago!
    He said “GM is now ‘fully committed’ to producing the car.
    He is now only pegging the odds as slightly better than 50-50 on getting it by the end of 2010?[/quote]
    Since there won’t be a CAFE increase until 2020, Bob Lutz and his people can now take their time and not produce the Volt until 2020.
    I don’t blame ‘ya Bob.
    Maintain the status quo as long as you can.  

    (Quote)


  12. Guy Incognito
    Vote -1 Vote +1Guy Incognito     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 3:32 pm

    [quote comment="20778"]Jim I said:
    I find it really interesting that this comes out the day after the CAFE law was signed…[/quote]
    Agreed.
    I don’t like coincidences either.  

    (Quote)


  13. Drake
    Vote -1 Vote +1Drake     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 4:05 pm

    [quote comment="20793"][quote comment="20750"]
    Since there won’t be a CAFE increase until 2020, Bob Lutz and his people can now take their time and not produce the Volt until 2020.
    I don’t blame ‘ya Bob.
    Maintain the status quo as long as you can.[/quote]

    This is something that I would have expected from GM five years ago, but I think (hope?) they are above this sort of thing now and are able to stand tall and see the big picture.

    The Volt and E-Flex and the only thing going for GM now. If it werent for these two things, I would never buy a GM vehicle for many reasons that I will not go into at this time. I am sure others are in this same camp.

    Global warming is a movement that will pay back any investment GM makes into E-Flex/E-REVs one hundred fold if they are just smart enough to continue forward and beat their main rival to the market.

    Again, I do not believe GM would revert to the old thinking that would lock them into the #2 spot for the foreseeable future.  

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  14. OhmExcited
    Vote -1 Vote +1OhmExcited     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 4:13 pm

    Get your head up, Marine.  

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  15. AES
    Vote -1 Vote +1AES     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 4:19 pm

    “It probably won’t be a flawless launch,” Lutz warns. Interpretation: Expect delays and possible teething problems.”

    My interpretation: cautious optimism over battery pack development. The teething problems and delays could be a matter of manufacturing, not necessarily the quality of the product. That’s understandable given the need to mass-produce not only the batteries but the electric motors.

    Idea: could GM partner with Continental to produce the electric motors? Conti acquired Siemens VDO recently, and both companies have a lot of experience with electric drives.  

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  16. Harvest
    Vote -1 Vote +1Harvest     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 4:21 pm

    I give the guy props, some of you guys should give him a break.

    A honest, conservative estimate can (and should) be taken a lot more seriously than some PR mumbo jumbo like “fully commited” and the like.

    It will be a shame a few years from now when GM doesn’t have this straight shooter in their upper tier.  

    (Quote)


  17. Jake
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jake     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 4:35 pm

    [quote comment="20807"]
    My interpretation: cautious optimism over battery pack development. The teething problems and delays could be a matter of manufacturing, not necessarily the quality of the product. That’s understandable given the need to mass-produce not only the batteries but the electric motors.

    Idea: could GM partner with Continental to produce the electric motors? Conti acquired Siemens VDO recently, and both companies have a lot of experience with electric drives.[/quote]
    I imagine that development/production of the battery is a bigger issue than the motor. I feel like this type of motor is better established than the battery technology needed to propel a car like this. But…this is just a guess on my part.  

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  18. RB
    Vote -1 Vote +1RB     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 6:08 pm

    I understand Lutz’s comments to mean that there is most likely going to be a delay. He is optimistic and pushing hard, so he is giving the most positive view of the real difficulties faced by those underneath him. Some delay is reasonable considering the extensive nature of the design and redesign required. Of course, we are all eager, but I’d rather have it slip a year or two and then be a more polished car when introduced. That first model is going to have a lot of attention and, as the saying goes, ‘first impresions are lasting impressions.’  

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  19. greg E
    Vote -1 Vote +1greg E     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 6:19 pm

    What really torque’s me a bit is the engineers.

    I am an engineer too and what an engineer needs to release is: stop trying to re-invent everything.

    The HVAC, Breaks, Electrical should have been designed and built.

    Did GM forget the hard research and testing of the EV1 just reuse the parts design and old manufactures.

    But they wanted to start FRESH the problem with that they might end up with a product that might be just as good as EV1 and thinking why didn’t we use this original AC system/electrical/ steering etc to begin with.

    GM re-use your old, technology, research and investment !!!  

    (Quote)


  20. Don
    Vote -1 Vote +1Don     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 7:33 pm

    Not just the EV1 … most of the car is the same as the fuel cell vehicle line that has already had … how much dumped into it? Methinks they hang a little crepe.  

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  21. Grizzly
    Vote -1 Vote +1Grizzly     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 7:35 pm

    I’ll bet if you had measured his optimism about the Acadia, or new CTS 3-4 years ago, it would have been similar. Those were not necessarily rushed to market and are basically plain ‘ol ICEs. Big difference.

    Let’s all be delighted that the numbers aren’t reversed. What would we all be thinking if they were…ie that his confidence that the Volt would be produced were only 5.5?  

    (Quote)


  22. Kevin R
    Vote -1 Vote +1Kevin R     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 8:59 pm

    If their feet are to the fire, they need to have their hands in it too! If the Volt doesn’t make it in 2010 when my Bonneville needs to be replaced I won’t be buying another GM vehicle. What I think may happen if GM isn’t super aggressive, is the other manufacturers will have their electrics on the road in 2009 or early 2010. If I see those and the Volt ends up a year or so late, I won’t be able to wait longer. I also refuse to purchase another gas powered vehicle. I’m through with it all.  

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  23. butters
    Vote -1 Vote +1butters     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 10:18 pm

    I think the 55% number is perfectly reasonable and demonstrates refreshing honesty. I’m more concerned with the other number. Is there really any chance that GM won’t end up shipping the Volt given their aggressive devlopment effort and the considerable grassroots interest?

    I think that Lutz should have declared 100% confidence in the Volt’s (eventual) production and staked his legacy on the EREV concept he has so passionately championed.  

    (Quote)


  24. Paul
    Vote -1 Vote +1Paul     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 10:24 pm

    Of course it won’t be a flawless launch. No car company has ever had a flawless launch of anything. Nothing is perfect.

    That being said, it seems GM is giving the Volt project a higher velocity path through the normal GM R&D process than has ever been done before. Free of the normal red tape and bureaucracy, his engineers may just surprise him.  

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  25. Grizzly
    Vote -1 Vote +1Grizzly     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 10:29 pm

    I think that Lutz should have declared 100% confidence in the Volt’s (eventual) production and staked his legacy on the EREV concept he has so passionately championed.

    *** *** ****

    He *could* stake his legacy, but that would not stop the board of directors from pulling the plug if they chose to do so.

    I’ll take 95, and again it’s better than the reverse.  

    (Quote)


  26. james
    Vote -1 Vote +1james     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 11:08 pm

    let a minorly negative interview show, and up pops guy (how’s the investigation going there fella?) and don to let us in on the evils of gm. lmao, i just can’t stand it, lol…
    so, let’s say gm doesn’t make the volt, or delays it past 2010 (which i consider highly unlikely), still great tech coming out of this.
    and even if we don’t get to “fuel” our cars (because the volt is delayed or terminated) we can still use nano solar for our homes for heat and electricity, almost for free.
    and sooner or later, someone will make an e-flex vehicle.  

    (Quote)


  27. Guy Incognito
    Vote -1 Vote +1Guy Incognito     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 11:51 pm

    [quote comment="20873"]james Says:
    “…and up pops guy (how’s the investigation going there fella?)…”[/quote]
    Hello again James.
    So, how is your paranoia?  

    (Quote)


  28. james
    Vote -1 Vote +1james     Says:
    December 20th, 2007 at 11:56 pm

    ha, lmao off doug korthof aka guy? looking forward to the alleged illegal donations investigation…  

    (Quote)


  29. Guy Incognito
    Vote -1 Vote +1Guy Incognito     Says:
    December 21st, 2007 at 1:02 am

    [quote comment="20879"]james Said:
    “…doug korthof aka guy? Looking forward to the ialleged illegal donations investigaton…[/quote]
    For the last time James, I am not Doug Korthof.
    As I have told you before, I don’t know anything about any “alleged illegal donations investigaton”.
    You got the wrong guy james, it must be the paranoia.  

    (Quote)


  30. james
    Vote -1 Vote +1james     Says:
    December 21st, 2007 at 2:35 am

    29. not for the last time…mr. korthof?

    btw guy, aren’t you the same ass who wrote “FUCK YOU” to some nice young lady on here a few days back?  

    (Quote)


  31. Herkimer
    Vote -1 Vote +1Herkimer     Says:
    December 21st, 2007 at 10:08 am

    [quote comment="20907"]29. btw guy, aren’t you the same ass who wrote “FUCK YOU” to some nice young lady on here a few days back?[/quote]

    Yep…

    I stopped reading his posts after that. …acting like a damn teen-ager.  

    (Quote)


  32. Guy Incognito
    Vote -1 Vote +1Guy Incognito     Says:
    December 21st, 2007 at 11:13 am

    [quote comment="20907"]james said & Herkimer quoted:
    btw guy, aren’t you the same one who wrote “FUCK YOU” to some nice young lady on here a few days back?[/quote]
    That I was.
    Lauren RS did’nt like my comments about Bob Lutz so she went off on me.
    I told her where to go.
    Make no mistakes about it, I ALWAYS take resposibility for my actions.
    My offending post was deleted, as it should have been.  

    (Quote)


  33. james
    Vote -1 Vote +1james     Says:
    December 21st, 2007 at 1:39 pm

    guy 32. you’re not taking responsibility for your actions when you try to justify them by saying “she did this” first. did she hurt your iddy biddy feelings?

    btw, she did not “go off” on you. and she definitely didn’t deserve (or use any language like) F*CK YOU to be thrown at her by the likes of a big pussy like you, lol…  

    (Quote)


  34. Joe
    Vote -1 Vote +1Joe     Says:
    December 21st, 2007 at 9:12 pm

    The EV1 was a good test-bed for the Volt. Components from it could be improved and used for the Volt. Like somebody mentioned, The GM flex-fuel cars has many components ready made for the Volt. GE would be a great company to work with for the electric motor and motor control. I bet there are many deals and contracts made behind the scene that are kept confidential. I also believe GM could have an earlier date than 2010 for producing this car, just to fool it’s competitors. What a pleasant surprise that would be? These are all unknowns. Don’t forget,this is the most important project in GM’s history!  

    (Quote)


  35. Statik
    Vote -1 Vote +1Statik     Says:
    December 21st, 2007 at 10:58 pm

    I’m pretty sure everyone thinks it ‘will’ be built. But the 2010 date has always been BS.

    If you have been following this from the beginning you can see how GM is ‘managing’ the public’s expectations here, gently pushing expectations farther and farther out.

    They always represent that the car is three years out. Early in the year the consensus was solid 2010. Couple months ago we were told ‘late 2010′ (November). Now at year end we are ‘55% in 2010′, with ‘…won’t be a flawless launch’

    People also forget that to make good on their release date, they don’t have to get 60,000 Volts out or have one in your local showroom…all they have to do is get a couple hundred cars out to say we made our goal, then ramp up the next year. They can’t even do that.

    It’s going to be 2012 before anyone here is driving around in a shiney new Volt (except for maybe Lyle).

    Don’t worry GM I’ll still be here…as long as no one else delivers a 4 seater first.  

    (Quote)


  36. james
    Vote -1 Vote +1james     Says:
    December 21st, 2007 at 11:05 pm

    joe 34. you pretty much got it right!

    statik 35. you got most of it wrong.
    please give me some dates wherein gm said the volt was going to be on the road before 2010 and then pushed it out. and please screw off with that 2012 bullsh*t, nobodies using that date, except the trolls, lol…  

    (Quote)


  37. Statik
    Vote -1 Vote +1Statik     Says:
    December 23rd, 2007 at 2:30 pm

    Well James, I never said it was ever pre-2010.

    I can’t go back and say here is where Lutz said the car would be released in 2010, because I never had. If you read my post it says GM is ‘managing expectations’.

    And by managing I mean, check what everyone was saying about the release date when this site first opened and after the ‘buzz’ when GM first said it was going to actually build this car 6 months ago…

    Then have a look what they were saying 3 months ago after Lutz gave his ‘2010 November hopefully in production’ spiel.

    Now look at the sentiment today after his 95% production 55% in 2010 speech.

    I am no troll, I want one of these cars, I just don’t like getting ‘handled’ Of course everyone should be accountable for their words, so maybe I’ll start a thread where people can ‘guess-timate’ when they will get their shiney new Volt…and we will let time tell who is the wiser.  

    (Quote)


  38. james
    Vote -1 Vote +1james     Says:
    December 23rd, 2007 at 3:40 pm

    statik, what? i never did say You said pre 2010. u said gm said dates before 2010 and then gm moved those dates out. there is No evidence to support your statements.

    And, i have never heard any one at gm push the date out to 2012.

    we don’t need your sarcism, or your new thread. what we need is for trolls, and others who act like them, to knock it off with that 2012 bullsh*t, unless you’ve got something you can quote to back it up.

    and just for reference, check the threads a couple of days from this one and notice that the volt “team” says the volt is still on track.  

    (Quote)


  39. Statik
    Vote -1 Vote +1Statik     Says:
    December 23rd, 2007 at 11:12 pm

    I said they were managing our expectations backwards as the calender progresses (I never ever mentioned that GM said dates before 2009). Here are some quotes (from this site) for you where I feel GM is pushing out my expectations:

    Dec 20th 2007: Lutz Now 95% Confident Volt will be Built, 55% Confident it will Arrive in 2010

    Nov 16th, 2007: He (Lutz) is quoted as saying the Volt team said “2010 is an impossible target”.

    Aug 22, 2007 (Bloomberg):– General Motors Corp. may build as many as 60,000 of its Volt electric cars for their inaugural year on the market, four times the sales of Toyota Motor Corp.’s hybrid Prius in its U.S. debut, people with knowledge of GM’s plans said.

    July 4th, 2007, he (Lutz) was quoted as saying…GM had probably spent “at this point” $100 million, “but ramping up very fast as it becomes a high-priority product for launch in ‘10.”

    June 18th, 2007: (Bloomberg) GM’s initial goal of selling 1,000 Volts by the end of the decade hinges on developing a reliable, long-lasting battery

    May 7th, 2007: Larry Burns gave an interview to Automotive News in which he elaborated on some details of the Volt’s production process and plans. As per the typical GM production process, from the point the Volt is currently at, it should take sbout 36 months for the first Volts to roll off the production line. Thats May 2010 for those keeping score

    Tues, Mar 6th, 2007: Working prototype by end of 2007.

    Just because my opinion is different than yours is no reason to call me a troll. I want a Volt in my driveway. I currently feel like I am being manipulated. That is my opinion. You are entitled to yours.

    Bookmark me this if you like and throw it back at me when you are sitting behind the wheel of your new Volt, I’ll gladly offer my sincerest apologies to you and GM and eat humble pie.  

    (Quote)


  40. james
    Vote -1 Vote +1james     Says:
    December 23rd, 2007 at 11:41 pm

    statik 39. where is it that you get the idea that i called you a troll? i asked you to stop throwing out a year of 2012 as being the earliest anyone will be able to buy a “shiny new volt”, as you put it. and simply asked that you stop being “troll like”, by making such a statement.
    i still see nothing in your post that says anyone at gm is giving 2012 as the year the volt hits the streets.

    so, until you give me such a quote (and even if you do, it would have to be by several people at gm, and recently), i will again ask you to stop making such a “troll like statement”.

    and please, as i said earlier, take a look at the latest threads wherein the gm team states that the volt is right on track, i.e. production by the end or 2010.

    however, i am certain that the volt will be produced Before the end of 2010, but that is my Opinion, lol…

    btw, i’m not looking for you to do anything, such as apologize later, or eat humble pie. i could really care less. but i would appreciate it if you stop throwing out the year 2012 when there is no evidence to support your statement.  

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  41. Jeff M
    Vote -1 Vote +1Jeff M     Says:
    January 3rd, 2008 at 2:16 pm

    Watching CNBC today… GM’s stock price is down today, with the reason cited being GM’s Wagner saying something about the Volt not likely to start production in 2010  

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