I’ll bet that either or both are the case with Musk, and that his rocket company has a better chance than “Tesla”. Sometimes a little market research, and forecasting are a “good” thing.

I hope that Tesla succeeds but the Volt will start something he never imagined. And again, if the Volt is just another “PHEV” as many on this site suggest, then why is it that the Prius and Insight have seeming NO effect on the prospects of the Roadster or Whitestar?

M.

The major investor in Tesla is Elon Musk. He made around $300 million when PayPal was sold to eBay. Now he is building a rocket company to “help us become a space faring civilization” (www.spacex.com). He has also founded SolarCity (www.solarcity.com). You can find out more about him in the “Entrepreneur of the Year” article in Inc. magazine
http://www.inc.com/magazine/20071201/entrepreneur-of-the-year-elon-musk.html

So I don’t think he is out to make a quick buck with Tesla. He seems to want to change the world. Whether he succeeds or not is anybody’s guess.

The complexities involved in being a participant as in the current “Tesla” / “Lotus” agreement are nothing compared to trying to bring your own manufacturing plants up to scale in an industry where you have very little experience. GM is only “ONE” of the many including Ford, Nissan, Toyota..etc who will eventually be producing these cars.

Tesla’s chances of survival are “slim” in the best possible light.

I’m guessing that they’re hoping to sell off once the NM plant is built as a “functioning” EV manufacturer. The only problem is, any of the Big 5 could build (or convert) a BETTER and, probably on an economies of scale , more efficient plant from scratch for less.

M.

M.

I would bet that the Bluestar and/or Whitestar will be range intended electric vehicles with much smaller batteries and a small gas/E85 engine, as discussed here:
http://www.gm-volt.com/2007/12/07/is-tesla-planning-to-build-an-e-rev-too/

Also, the Tesla Roadster is intended to be just their first way of making money quick. They are investing the money already made from Roadster pre-sales into a production plant in New Mexico for higher volume cars.

I’m not saying that Tesla will definitely succeed with high volume cars, but don’t discount them based on their current size and product offering. They are positioned to grow.

Is it even conceivable that they’d succeed in translating their battery approach to that price point?

There are no additional economies of scale expected in production of standard 18650 Li ion cells (as opposed to those expected as large high power cells ramp up and the fixed costs can be spread over a larger batch of production). The costs of their various safety features (required to offset the potential for thermal runaway with this battery type) are one thing factored into a large complete pack for an extremely high end car, but factored in a smaller battery pack for a car at a $30K price point?

Don’t get me wrong, I am very grateful to Tesla and I wish them every success. I want those roadsters out there showing everyone that EV ≠ golf cart, that EV = performance instead. I think they can succeed in that higher end niche and that success will make selling EREVs that much easier. And the more EVs and EREVs and PHEVs on market the better. But I am at a loss to see how they could adapt their current approach to a higher volume market. Again, I may be missing something here, which is why I’m asking.