The Facts on Timing of Automotive Battery Mass Production
As we discussed in our previous post, the NY Times reported an experts opinion that unless ground is broken on a new battery factory very soon, GM won’t make the 2010 deadline for the Volt (see post). We here reasoned that didn’t sound right, for many of the reasons commenters noted. I decided to get the facts straight from the sources; the two major companies vying to make the Volt’s battereis, A123, and Compact Power. Here is what they said:
Ric Fulop, co-founder and marketing director A123:
“I would be surprised if the expert has ever seen a Lithium Ion factory. If you started from scratch and you know what you are doing you’d need less than 2 years, however, we are not starting from scratch and already have very large Lithium Ion factories in Asia (+300,000sf of mfg space).
We are now expanding our plants to support our different automotive programs. We announced a $30M financing to start this process a few days ago.
http://www.a123systems.com/newsite/index.php#/news/news071023/.”
Martin Klein, engineering director CPI:
“While two years is probably an accurate assessment of the time it would take from breaking ground on a new manufacturing facility to mass producing high quality lithium-ion batteries, Compact Power, Inc. (CPI), through its parent LG Chem, is actually well beyond the ground breaking point. We already have a plant in operation (in Korea) that is capable of producing the kinds of volumes of safe, high quality, large-format lithium-ion cells for automotive use required by the calendar year 2010 target. And, the pack assembly lines, which take considerably less time than a cell plant to complete, are well into the planning stages, due to our work over the years in developing and validating pack design and build processes. Moreover, our experience and understanding of the manufacturing methods and processes will quickly allow us to expand volumes to meet the demands beyond 2010.
To look at it another way, if your starting point is an entirely new cell design, or you are trying to force-fit an existing cell design that was not originally intended for automotive use into an automotive application, then two years is very tight. But if you’ve been developing battery cells specifically for automotive applications, and have been developing pack designs in parallel that make the most of those cells, then the next two years will see cell and pack plants that are capable of the necessary volumes and quality in time for a launch in CY 2010.”
Popularity: 3%
(No Ratings Yet) 
Loading ...
21 Responses to “The Facts on Timing of Automotive Battery Mass Production”
Leave a Reply
Recent Posts
- EPA Closer to Giving the Chevy Volt at Least a 100 mpg Rating
- GM, Natural Gas, and the Volt
- GM and Chrysler in Merger Talks
- More Details About Chrylser’s Electric Car Plans
- As GM Goes So Goes the Nation
- Lutz Provides More Volt Details: Photovoltaic Roof to be Unveiled in January, and Volt Development Ahead of Schedule
- GM’s Electric History
- Project Better Place CEO Calls the Volt a Niche Product
- The Production Chevy Volt Has One Charging Port, and Unnamed Object Identified
- Video: 60 Minutes - Race For the Electric Car
October 26th, 2007 at 7:00 am
I wish A123 would acquire Electro Energy (EEEI) and put their Florida battery plant to use making the market-proven A123 cells. … While I have tremendous respect for the Chinese manufacturing capability, I would just prefer that some of this manufacturing expertise would be retined in the USA. Then again, it is hard to argue with how rapidly (compared to others), A123 has brought this important technology to market.
http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2007/09/electro_energy.html
All in all, good news. It reminds me of what Bob Lutz said earlier — that the battery suppliers had asked him to stop saying that the batteries were the main sticking point for the Chevy Volt because they were confident they would deliver on time with products that meet the specs.
You know, we’ve been hearing a lot about new fuel cell cars in the last few days. … One question I have not heard asked is how long the fuel cells will last. I know that the Ballard Nexa power module had a lifetime rating of only 1500 hours. These could be less durable than batteries.
http://www.ballard.com/be_a_customer/fuel_cells/nexa_power_module#
October 26th, 2007 at 7:44 am
One more question to ask A123, when will production start for the A123 cell specifically designed for PHEVs and to be shipped to Cobasy for battery pack manufacture? I believe the answer is 2008.
October 26th, 2007 at 7:47 am
Excuse ME !!! The NY Times does not have any experts, all the have is a bunch of idiots. They wouldn’t know a Lithium Ion battery if it bit them in the rear.
October 26th, 2007 at 8:23 am
Something else to consider is that the current machinery in their existing factories may be able to make the cells for the auto packs too. If these factories are not at 100% production (as most factories are not) then production could be moved up from, say, 80% production resulting in 20% of production from the same factory and same machinery.
With the Volt being about three years away, if they started now I imagine they could make a very large amount of Volt packs (or atleast battery pack cells) between now and then with existing production capacity.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:09 am
======== Totally Unrelated ========
Your partnership with Google Ads has you guys advertising Toyotas, Hondas, Fords and many other competitive makes on this site. While realizing those ads are context sensitive, it still might be a good idea so see if you could generate some advertising revenue without supporting competitors to the very product this blog features. Just a suggestion.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:23 am
Drake, that is a good idea. But I wonder if the reason why they don’t do that is A123 is waiting for the go ahead from GM. It will really be bad if A123 started producing a mass amount of packs, only to find out that GM didn’t exactly like them or the batteries failed to meet GM’s specs. But to wait in this case. I will admit though, I want my Volt now.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:35 am
Rashiid:
I heard a rumor that all of us on this site will be on a priority list to receive the first Volts available. Any truth to that???
October 26th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Tom M, Sorry. Not everyone. Just me.
Actually if anyone on this site deserved it, it would be Lyle. But I have no idea how they are going to initially distribute it. I assume everyone gets a first crack at the same time.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:00 am
Tom, that’s a hell of a rumor. But let’s hope GM is listening.
If Google’s ads help pay for Lyle to run this site, my vote is to let them advertise whatever they want.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:23 am
Dave B, #9:
Right. I don’t have a problem ignoring a Honda ad!
If GM could understand its own enlightened self interest, it would GIVE the first Volt to Lyle. This blog amazes me every day. It blows the Fastlane and FYI blogs, maintained by full time, paid, GM employees, into the weeds. More and better posts, more and better comments (with apologies to Gary Dikkers) - Awesome!
October 26th, 2007 at 10:52 am
I believe that the source of that comment about “2 years” was a university professor. That says it all, probably has never been out of a classroom in the past 20 years. It’s got to really irk people in the know when university professors…no offense but…”I teach because I can’t do” try to come off as experts.
The question I’ve always had is does A123 OWN their Chinese facilities or do they have “partners” in China? Like many, I would still rather they have US facilities, but the issue of “owning” vs. “partnering” is a big one. Does anyone know?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:19 am
One of the things this indicates to me is that they either already have decided on, or are close to deciding on, which batteries they are going to mass produce. This raises the obvious question - what are the specs on those batteries and what are they going to cost? It sounds to me like they probably already know those answers.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:54 am
Grizzly,
Both.
They partner with NASDAQ traded CBAK and have their own facilities. The current new investment is to bring more of their own facilities on-line but clearly large volume will use their partner as well. The bottom line as demand goes up no doubt will be the bottom line: will it be cheaper to sub it out or to build it themselves? Without doubt their partner is put on notice that they have to price competitively enough if they are to get that business. CBAK for their sake is also in the business of other Li ion batteries and has a letter of intent with HP that may take up some of their current excess capacity if it goes through. They have also planned on developing in-China EV markets but so far other Chinese battery companies have cut those deals (GBT - publicly traded as well, Lishen, and BYD who is building their own brand of EVs)
Disclosure: personally long CBAK, GBT, GM, and a bunch of the battery players and other firms that I believe will benefit from what I see as the dawning of an EV transportion system.
October 26th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
Are the batteries likely to be single cell packs? If so, it doesn’t sound like making 60,000 in a year (what I believe GM said how many Volts they planned to produce the 1st year) would be that much of a problem. But I’m not in the battery maker business so would believe the makers quoted above.
Regarding who should get (be allowed to buy) the first Volts off the line… a good PR move would be to give 1st option to those who had leased EV1’s (http://ev1.org/) and GM had to pry the keys out of their hands. If you can win those EV1 drivers back it will go a long way.
October 26th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
The automotive industry as a whole has evolved towards having separate contractors design and supply many different components (e.g. Delphi, Valeo, Bosch, BorgWarner, Getrag). So the article’s assumption that GM would be building the batteries from scratch all by itself is rather striking in its fundamental ignorance of how the industry operates - and also ignorant of months-old developments in the Volt story. I’m really surprised they let that article get published, and if I were the reporter I would be rather embarrassed at this point.
October 26th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
Ah, thanks Lyle. It’s good to know that
the NY Times deserved the faceslapping I gave it over this claim. That “expert” made
that particular statement a while ago. Apparently the Times reporter saw that quote and simply copied it into his recent article. Old or new, the quote sounded fishy because to believe it you has to believe a lot of other, rather unlikely things. As I’ve said ever since I read pure BS in the NY Times about a stock I owned, that rag is living on its past glories.
Money is tight and we can see the result.
October 26th, 2007 at 5:43 pm
I’m not an expert. But, it seems to me trying to build a new lithium battery plant in the US would encounter environmental roadblocks at every step. Why not just buy from the A123 plant in Korea if that’s where it is and save money, time and lawsuits. I’m just going by what I read and hear on the news.
October 26th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
AES Says:
October 26th, 2007 at 3:54 pm Quote
“The automotive industry as a whole has evolved towards having separate contractors design and supply many different components (e.g. Delphi, Valeo, Bosch, BorgWarner, Getrag). So the article’s assumption that GM would be building the batteries from scratch all by itself is rather striking in its fundamental ignorance of how the industry operates - and also ignorant of months-old developments in the Volt story.”
The is true of almost ANY manufacturer of complexity. If you were talking about a Caterpillar Bulldozer, many of the parts on that Dozer would be made by outside contractors, this is but one example, but it goes w/o saying.
That’s why that article that quoted, of all people, a University professor, who obviously has no idea what he’s talking about caused such controversy.
We have a large ship builder near where I live that builds our Nuclear aircraft carriers. In fact the only facility in the U.S. that builds them. When they were having difficulty in the 90’s the local news interviewed an Economics professor from a local university that suggested they start building merchant marine ships.
The local paper ran an article about his comments, and interviewed many shipbuilding experts from around the nation who could not believe his comments, and outlined why that would not be the thing to do, and suggested he really didn’t know what he was talking about. Turns out he didn’t.
A few contractual changes, including contract work on repairing navy vessels and 3 new carrier contracts and the shipyard was back on it’s feet.
Just a case in point.
October 27th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
What about the battery from Ener1 Inc., I thought they were in the running too?
October 28th, 2007 at 2:28 pm
[...] A-News wrote an interesting post today on The Facts on Timing of Automotive Battery Mass ProductionHere’s a quick excerpt [...]
February 7th, 2008 at 8:26 am
[...] Battery Mass Production Post [...]