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Are Chevy Volt Components Being Tested on Roads of Detroit?
October 25th, 2007 | Posted in: Production
In an article about GM ramping up Chevy Volt production, Bloggingstocks author Gary Sattler has quoted layperson sources as claiming that mechanical components of the Chevy Volt are currently being road tested on the streets of Detroit.
We do know that GM planned to have mules up and running by year end, and that they were to have battery packs in hand in the month of October.
When I last asked a few days ago, GM told me they did not have the packs yet.
We would love to talk to one of those quoted layperson sources. If any of you are out there, let us know.
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36 Responses to “Are Chevy Volt Components Being Tested on Roads of Detroit?”
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October 25th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
“mechanical components” - that could mean lots of things. It could mean testing electric motors or motor controllers. It could also mean simply putting a bunch of weight in the center of a modified Cobalt to gauge the effects of the battery pack on suspension and handling.
October 25th, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Do you see where Toyota is playing hard ball by saying that:
“For the next-generation Prius, Toyota will cut the size and price of the hybrid drive system by around half, and stick with a NiMH battery pack, according to Executive Vice President Kazuo Okamoto. Okamoto is in charge of Toyota’s research and development, and made the comment to reporters at the Tokyo Motor Show.
“I can’t tell you when it will come to market, but the preparations are making steady progress,” Okamoto said. He added that the next Prius would “definitely” use improved nickel-hydride batteries rather than higher-energy lithium-ion. “Lithium-ion is going to take some time,” he said.”
From http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/10/toyota-will-cut.html#more
I don’t see how Toyota can cut the price by around half unless they are determined to keep their edge on the market.
Cutting the size by half however doesn’t make sense for the US market. Maybe they are only talking about the Japanese market.
October 25th, 2007 at 1:48 pm
Improvements in technology and experience are two ways means by which they could cut the price in half. Why wouldn’t they want to make the system as small as possible?
By 2010 Toyota may have a hybrid that gets 55+ MPG (regardless of distance driven) for a small premium (Honda is shooting for
October 25th, 2007 at 1:48 pm
…continued…
sub $2K). GM may find that that they will be asking people to pay 30K for a vehicle that when driven over 40 miles a day (or 30(?) on AC) gets worse fuel economy than a sub 20K hybrid.
Honda’s CEO’s comments are starting to make more sense. GM picked 40 miles to try to accommodate the majority of the market. However in doing so they may have made a niche product that works well ONLY for people who drive 40 miles/day. The rest of the people will tend to opt for the less expensive hybrid.
October 25th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
I disagree with GXT RE “niche product”.
40 miles per day * 365 is 14600 miles per year.
For a 6 day week (rest one day) it is 12500 miles per year.
This does I think cover 80% of US market which is not niche.
Even for those driving 20K miles, that 55 to 65 miles per day. Of which at least half will be at 0 mpg. So for 60 miles will be more like 100 mpg.
I think that the area of “niche” is more likely to be those that currently park sufficiently close to an electrical outlet at night (i.e. excludes street parking, and some driveways).
October 25th, 2007 at 2:27 pm
The price of the Prius will be falling due to higher production volumes, new production technologies, and streamlined processes (not to mention more competition). The same will no doubt be true for PHEVs like the Volt. This is the Free Market at its finest: make a lot of a finished good, over extended periods of time and the price almost always falls.
Technology continues to raise everyones standard of living. A motto that I personnaly live by is “through technology we can all have more.” I replaced 45 100-watt lightbulbs in my home with CFLs and these new bulbs will save me close to $2000 over their life. The same will be true for the Volt- every owner’s cost for transportation will drop and they will have more money for other things. It all comes down to economics- through technology we can all have more.
October 25th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
GXT, this is assuming that Employers will not offer charging stations at their office buildings for people that live further way than 40 miles round trip. I am willing to bet that the Volt will make such an impact that employers will be forced to provide charging stations for these employees and perhaps all of them who own PEV. If employers do this than paying for the 30K car will make sense.
October 25th, 2007 at 2:47 pm
SXT,
Within a year or two after production has started, I am sure you will be able to buy a volt with extra batteries as an upgrade.
October 25th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
re:GXT, et al
30k cost isn’t a definite as of yet, and even with a 10,000 battery pack, that still puts the Volt at around 25k and falling.
The Volt may also appeal to people in more than just a hybrid sense. For one, the electric motor in the Volt is going to be much more powerful than that in the Prius, so the performance will likely be much much better while still offering competitive efficiency. For example, even with over 600 pounds of batteries and shoddy aerodynamics, the AC Propulsion eBox does 0-60 in 7 seconds using a 160hp motor (same as the Volt’s).
Secondly, there’s the “import intender” phenomenon. Some people may look exclusively at Japanese cars because of their reputation for quality. Other people may have some legitimate reasons for avoiding imported cars like the plague.
How does the phrase go? “Patriots don’t buy Priuses”?
October 25th, 2007 at 3:15 pm
I believe I read once that Chevy was most interested in testing battery packs in “real-world” driving conditions. This was to test how well a battery pack held up in day-to-day vibrations while driving as well as operating in typical temperature ranges.
Does anyone know more or different?
October 25th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
David, I haven’t heard that but I would volunteer for it. I live in New England and drive 101 miles round trip 5 days a week. We have temperatures below zero and as high as 100 degrees plus humidity. I would be a great test case (for more than one reason, I guess.
)
October 25th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
get in line Rashiid.
October 25th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
I am under the impression that the next generation Prius, will cut the “hybrid premium” in hals (from about $4,000 to about $2000) and cut the weight of the HSD, by about half. So it will be much smaller and cheaper, but more efficient, resulting the the Prius overall mileage going from about 45 MPG to about 54 MPG (20% improvement.) Originally the battery was going to be lithium and about double the capacity (going from 1.3 to about 2.6) to provide an AER of 8 miles.) I did see that the PHEV test vehicles used two of their 1.3 KWH existing batteries, which fits the story. I have not seen anything yet indicating whether the next generation using the old batteries will have increased battery capacity.
Turning to the Volt, I expect it will get about 65 MPG overall, blowing the Prius out of the water. Its highway- range extender operating - mileage may only be about 55 MPG, but when combined with equilvant “gallons” of $3.00 worth of juice, the city “mileage will be about 70 MP”G”. (3 Miles per KWH times 23 KWHs per 3.00 dollars) (.13 times 23= $3.00)
October 25th, 2007 at 3:33 pm
Good. Get on with it.
As some brilliant blogger said here recently, “Innovate or die”.
Rashiid, #11:
Maybe GM could pick up a few bucks by auctioning off leases to be a Volt tester on ebay, or some such. I wouldn’t pay huge money for the privilege, but I would do better than free.
How much was the lease for an EV1? What would that be in 2007/8 dollars? I would do it, and sign all the releases, waivers, whatever, that their lawyers could cook up.
October 25th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
Mentioning Toyota and Honda significantly cutting their hybrid premiums: I support EDV technology because of the future V2G potential. My favorite kind of EDV is the conventional flex-fuel RxEV. But the point I have is that with V2G you have the potential for revenue generation and capacity optimization. You don’t get that with any conventional vehicle, and you would not have that much energy storage capacity in a conventional PHEV. One study listed a potential for $2500 per year net profit for V2G and over ten years that would obviously shrink the cost of ownership much, much more than conventional automobile economics. Innovate or die.
October 25th, 2007 at 4:23 pm
Toyota can do whatever they want to the size and price of their hybrid drivetrain. I refuse to drive anything that accelerates and handles like a 27 year old Civic. (Look it up!!)
October 25th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
V2G is a great thought. But in reality, why would GM warranty the batteries for that kind of use? They are doing a ton of work to minimize the charge cycles on the battery. Letting the grid decide where and when (and how deep) to cycle the battery seems like a crappy idea.
October 25th, 2007 at 5:06 pm
Agreed, V2G is a terrible idea. Not only will it wear out your battery faster, but you’re multiplying transmission and storage inefficiencies. Why bother.
October 25th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
GXT just isn’t thinking very clearly here. Examine average daily mileages
(most people consistently drive about the same every weekday and weekend) for these yearly cycles : 7000 (retirees) , 12,000 (U.S. average), 15,000 and 20,000 miles and you get a 19, 33, 41, and 54 mile per day average. MPGs for VOLT owners will easily acheive 150 to 1000 MPG, which completely dwarfs any conventional hybrid MPGs. And those hybrids aren’t going to cost any $10,000 less than the VOLT, which GXT falsely claims to be $30K. The VOLT cost will decline, not rise, as the battery prices decline, while the NiMH batteries
of the Japanese hybrids are going up in price. Even right now the VOLT’s few
thousand dollar price premium over the Prius is totally warranted : it’s simply
a far better car. And sub $20K Honda hybrids, even if they did exist, would
not be at all comparable to the VOLT, any more than their present day $25K hybrids are.
Neither economically nor environmentally does a conventional hybrid even remotely approach the ability of a plug-in to avoid gasoline and emissions.
It is entirely and even likely that a typical VOLT will be able to avoid 90%
of the gasoline used by a conventional hybrid. And THAT, is important.
October 25th, 2007 at 6:55 pm
Something else that goes in the Volt’s favor…
it is likely to have a big tax credit, whereas by then Toyota and Honda vehicles will not likely qualify for tax credits.
The credit will do its job of offsetting higher initial cost until production scales up.
Congress was talking about $6K tax credit. Let’s say $5K, then Volt costs $25K and Toyota having used up credits costs $20K. But for many the Volt you could get 1000 mpg, and a nicer sporty car that it not imported.
Although Toyota and Honda might do plug-in hybrid only to qualify for a fresh tax credit. So Congress should think carefully about what qualifies and how much. For example a 2KWh Prius should not get same credit as a 16KWh Volt.
October 25th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
Oil hits new record over $90 a barrel:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/25/markets/oil_record/index.htm?cnn=yes
As oil prices go higher, more of our money goes to terrorists. At the same time, you have people with big SUVs questioning the patroitism of someone who buys a Prius.
We need the Volt bad!
October 25th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
Toyota can’t be in a very good position. They’ve been selling the prius at a loss since its inception. Recouping the R&D on their parallel hyprid technology is a long way off and I’m sure they even hoped that licensing it the way they do to Ford and possibly others like Nissan and Subaru would be a good way to recoup some of that.
With the coming of the Volt, not only will they not be able to get a “premium” on the Prius, but their licensing days may be over soon, and Ford may well be the first casualty.
Would you license to build a vehicle that is as needlessly complex as it is expensive to build and is heading down the obsolescence highway?
Bosox
October 25th, 2007 at 11:57 pm
Don’t forget that the yen is undervalued right now, making it more profitable for Toyota to export cars made in Japan (i.e. they can sell at a lower price and still make a profit). This isn’t likely to last until 2010.
October 26th, 2007 at 7:23 am
Tom #16,
I had my first incounter with a Prius. Stopped at a light and rolled forward into the rear of a Prius. Absolutely no damage to my little Ford Ranger, not even a scratch. The Prius is a piece of junk, I bet I did $3,000 dollars damage to the rear of that thing, it’s all plastic.
Our building manager has agreed to give us plug-in ability for the Volt. This will be an incentive for leasing in this building.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:27 am
Dave G., #21:
Right. Well done. Thanks.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:53 am
[quote comment="12096"]Agreed, V2G is a terrible idea. Not only will it wear out your battery faster…[/quote]
I’d like to get a little clarification on that point. It seems that most of the postings on here are concerned about V2G supplying power from the batteries. I agree that using battery power would be a bad idea. But, wouldn’t the main idea be to get the power directly from the ICE? Couldn’t the batteries be isolated when providing power?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:09 am
I was thinking about design considerations this morning. What would the feasibility be of a “power” mode? That is, a manually operated switch to force the ICE to run in order to have more power available for the electric motor. It might help the Volt get back to the sub 6 second 0-60 time that we all started to drool over. You could flip the switch on as you were approaching a highway on-ramp, or leave it on for a hilly, windy road where you would be accelerating often. And in the case of those who would run all-electric most of the time, they could just use that once in a while to use up old gas. Possible?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Mark,
The issue isn’t that 40 mile range/charge covers 80% of US drivers. The issue is that the farther a driver deviates from the 40 mile drive/charge (either above or below) the less beneficial the volt is as compared to a hybrid. In that way it becomes a bit of a niche product.
To take it to the extreme, is a $60,000 volt that has a 100 mile range less of a niche product because it covers the range of more Americans?
October 26th, 2007 at 11:57 am
There are technologies that will soon hit the market that make the electric motors almost 4 times as efficient with smaller size and weight as well as ahvineg more power. Such as the PPMT (Parallel Path Magnetic Technology)http://qmpower.com/Our%20products.htm
These will greatly reduce the battery size and weight further increasing the range and effectivnes of the PEV’s.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:16 pm
Kent,
GM to hit $30K with the volt in 2010. Honda will have a sub 20K hybrid out in the next year or two. That is at least a $10K price difference in 2010. Both will continue to fall in the price (when Li-ion is ready it will replace the NiMH batteries for other hybrids).
I have no doubt that a Volt will tend to save more fuel than a hybrid as long as you tend to drive
October 26th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
…continued (Apparently less than signs cause problems when posting. The previous post should have read “GM HOPES to hit $30K”)…
less than 40 Miles/charge. However a Volt with 1/4 the battery pack would save even more fuel if you tend to drive less than 10 Miles/charge. That is the point that Honda (and now me) is making.
The extra 30 Miles of range isn’t free. It will become a price barrier for many people; more so as you deviate from the 40miles/charge. It will be even more of an issue with sub $20K hybrids available.
At 20,000 m/year (assuming someone drives equally each all day, which I don’t think is entirely accurate, but it is the best case for the average driver/volt combination), 12KWh/40 miles, $0.1/KWh elec, $3/gallon, and 50MPG gas operation, the volt would use 108 gallons and 4380KWh for a total of $762/year. A hybrid that gets 55MPG (should be more than reasonable for a 2010 hybrid) would use 363 gallons for $1090. The volt saves the driver $328/year. That is a 30+ year break even point (assuming the battery doesn’t need to be replaced) with a higher up front cost of entry.
Even if GM can produce it in volume at a profit, that is why the initial Volt will be a niche product.
October 26th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
“There are technologies that will soon hit the market that make the electric motors almost 4 times as efficient with smaller size and weight as well as ahvineg more power.”
What do you mean “4 times as efficient”?
Electric motors already are very efficient, many >90%.
October 26th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
#31 - GXT
In my opinion, the Volt will appeal to a lot more people due to its styling and because it will not be switching back and forth between an ice drive train and an electric engine. I have heard many complaints about the feel of driving a Prius. The Prius is one of the ugliest cars on the market. The Volt is better from an environmental standpoint (uses less gas). Most people don’t buy cars purely from an economical stand point. If this were the case …no one would buy anything except for the smallest cars on the market. I won’t mind paying a premium for the additional benefits the Volt will offer.
October 26th, 2007 at 3:03 pm
Regarding price difference between the 2010 Volt and 2010 Prius… and how long it takes to break even…
1) some folks are forgetting that the Volt is essentially an EV, which depending on the EV has between 70-90% fewer moving parts than a conventional ICE-V. A pure EV needs no oil/filter changes, air filter, fuel filter, spark plugs, coolent, radiator, exhaust, catalytic converter, muffler, transmission, etc. As such, maint. costs (parts & service) are usually a lot less (the major reason big auto, the dealerships, OEM’s, etc helped kill their own EV’s [by killing CA's ZEV mandate], ie. $$$). True the Volt will have a range extender/generator powered by a small ICE… but such an ICE is less complex because it’s tuned to a fixed RPM… and for the 80% who drive on average less than 40 miles between charges, the ICE will hardly ever come on. The bigger problem as has been mentioned will probably be needing to use a gas stabalizer.
The Prius with a parallel hybrid design on the other hand for the most part is still an ICE-V, adding in the extra complexity of a parallel hybrid drive system.
And the savings in time and hassle of going in for oil changes and other servicing is something hard to put a $ price on.
2) Gas prices are most likely to continue going up at a much higher rate than electric power prices so that also reduces pay back.
3) CO2… even when accounting for CO2 emissions from the existing power mix of the power grid, an EV significantly reduces CO2. GXT’s hypothetical case, if accurate, has the Prius burning 255 more gallons of gas. And as has been mentioned, the money for that gas ends up going to oil rich countries that don’t like us… while only 2% of our electric power is generated from oil.
October 26th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
Additional benefits between 2010 Volt vs 2010 Prius:
- The Volt will be able to drive farther on a tank of gas (650 to ? miles).
- Less gas used means a smaller US trade deficit.
- Buying a Volt means a smaller US trade deficit.
- The Volt will run quieter than the Prius.
- The Volt can also use biofuels.
If economics are your only concern …why even buy a Prius when you could by a small ICE car for $10,000?
November 4th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Could anybody shed some light on electric motors on EVs? Who is the best in making electric motors for EVs?
Thanks.