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Does Construction of a Battery Factory Need to Start 2 Years Before the Volt Gets Mass-Produced?

October 24th, 2007 | Posted in: Battery, Production

In the New York Times today, Mary Chapman published a piece discussing the unusual fact that the Volt is being advertised years before it exists as an actual car (LINK). We have discussed this before (LINK).

Ms. Chapman actually interviewed me for an opinion for this story. I was very bullish and optimistic, but as you can see, I didn’t get mentioned in the final story.

Anyway, she did mention a semi-pessimistic professor of automotive economics named Walter S. McManus who said he is convinced GM needs to build the car.

He goes on to say, though, “the battery technology is still not ready. I would say, when they break ground on a plant to make batteries, two years later the Volt will come out.”

And, (for the car to be built starting in 2010), “a factory has to be built soon, and it doesn’t look like the batteries are that near production.”

She also quoted Bob Lutz as saying “I would be surprised, shocked and dismayed if we decide not to do it” .

Are these cracks in the armor, or bats in the attic? You decide.

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Posted by: Lyle

15 Responses to “Does Construction of a Battery Factory Need to Start 2 Years Before the Volt Gets Mass-Produced?”

AES Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 2:29 pm

The economics prof seems to be assuming that GM will be building the batteries themselves from scratch, instead of contracting the job to another company with a preexisting infrastructure.

I suspect they also took Tony Posawatz’s quote - “No such batteries exist today” - completely out of context - whole packs and modules do not exist, but individual cells certainly do. I don’t expect that’s a level of technical detail that would get covered in a short newspaper article though.
James Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 2:39 pm

If my memory serves me right, Lyle interviewed both A123/Continental and Compact Power/LG in June or July this year (should be posts on this site). I believe Continental said it would manufacturer the batteries at its existing plant in China. LG said it would manufacturer the batteries at its existing plant in South Korea. I assume they would need to expand but they are already making batteries at their existing facilities. I don’t believe this is going to be an issue once the kinks are worked out.
Steven B Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 2:41 pm

Here’s my question for General Motors: Is the Volt going to be introuduced (under current production plans) as a 2010 or 2011 model? We can figure out the rest if we can just get that question answered. The entire project has been going at break-neck speed for a car company. Seeing how GM already has a production facility for the car picked out, the parts will be ready when the rest of the car is. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see GM start building a battery factory, or have their chosen supplier do it, as soon as a pack is chosen. This is not at all discouraging. It is a reality check, and I’m excited to see what we find out.
Van Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 2:44 pm

I am under the impression PHEV battery production facilities to produce the A123 System cells either exist or are being constructed now, in China. Yes, we need domestic production facilities from a national security point of view, we do not want to trade dependence on Muslin countries for dependence on Communist countries.

“Demand for the company’s products has grown significantly in the past year and A123Systems has recently opened its new, state-of-the-art manufacturing site for the company’s Automotive Class Lithium Ion batteries.” GCC
Drake Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 2:52 pm

A123 already mass-produces li-on battery packs for power tools. They make a lot of these li-on batteries and are good at it. All that is required to manufacture a car-sized pack is to scale up these power tool packs with the new chemistry designed for cars. The battery cells can remain the same, if desired. There is no technological hurdle left to create the Volt. All that is left is the will to do it.

If GM decides not to produce the Volt, there is no doubt in my mind that they will be doomed. A vast technological leap (like mass-producing PHEVs) is the only thing left for them.

The public already sees GM as a quality laggard (whether this be true or not), a destroyer of the environment (i.e. they popularized SUVs), and a road block to clean tech (i.e. they executed of the EV1). So if GM were to decide that PHEVs are “not ready for primetime” and “need a few more years of research” then there is no double in my mind that they will stay in the number two spot for the foreseeable future (if not slipping to number three).

Would any of you buy another GM vehicle if they killed off the Volt?

I do not believe GM is going to kill the Volt. There are too many incentives in place, of one form or another, that make the Volt a requirement for GMs sustainability in the future as a world-class car maker. The Volt is set to revolutionize not only the automobile industry, but GM as well.
Nick Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 2:53 pm

This story underscores Van’s point. A123 has just opened a factory for batteries and has just secured $30m of funding to expand manufacturing capacity.

We are seeing the kind of increase in manufacturing capacity that the quoted “expert” said would precede the release of the Volt by about 2 years.

http://www.smalltimes.com/display_article/309957/109/ARTCL/none/none/1/A123Systems-receives-30M-to-scale-up-nano-enabled-batteries/
kent beuchert Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 2:57 pm

GM is NOT , repeat, NOT going to be building any battery factory. Get that out of your head and never believe ANYTHING that is printed in the NY Times. That rag
has screwed up reports on companies whose stock I’ve owned, technologies that I follow, etc. and who can forget Friedman’s incredibly ignorant rant about autos, a subject he has no ability to claim any expertise about, in which he somehow managed to blame the coming Armeggeddan mostly on GM. I recently read an article in that paper in which it became obvious that the author really didn’t understand alternative energies at all - she thought all solar power technologies were basically the same. How can you explain ignorance of such astounding degree in a paper that supposedly is written by college graduates?
Almost sounds like Honda and Toyota are flooding the NY Times with advertising dollars to encourage more anti GM plug-in
articles, huh?
Drake Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 2:59 pm

Van - the beauty of li-on batteries is that there are lithium deposits all around the world (including the U.S.) If a war were ever to break out with China (by the way, I can not see this happening any time soon) then we could easily build domestic battery plants.

Energy independence is only one of the many ways that plug-in hybrids are going to change the world. A more complete list may be found here: http://www.thecaseforpluginhybrids.com
noel park Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 6:04 pm

Well I hate to sound dumb again but, if the Volt is not to be sold until late 2010, that’s 3 years away. So what’s the problem in any case?
Randy Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 6:53 pm

What is the world distribution of substantial lithium deposits that are/will be cost effective to mine. I realize that cost comparisons will vary greatly as petroleum prices continue to escalate but do we want to trade oil cartels for “element” cartels? I believe that the volt, and it’s eventual competitors, will provide a win-win-win situation for our country, the consumers within it, and the planet itself.
Daniel Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 8:13 pm

Well the NYT is sadly well known for propaganda and fictionalized accounts of virtually anything they see as a threat to their visions of Utopia… They swore an oath against GM many years ago, and they aren’t going to let something as minor as fact or hope stop them from that now…

…The real shame is that anyone bothers to read a publication that is less reliable than The Enquirer…
Neutron Flux Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 8:55 pm

Randy in post #10 Says” What is the world distribution of substantial lithium deposits that are/will be cost effective to mine.” To that I say Randy read my previous post & links to the USGS publication on Lithium supplies i twill answer all your questions. I won’t repost because by reading previous posts people come up to speed, get educated & don’t ask the same questions.
Estero Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 9:17 am

I’m just a little disappointed that A123 has chosen to have their batteries manufactured in China. While this will not change my mind about purchasing a Volt, I would much rather the battery production would be in the USA.

I’m like some of the others; don’t really want to trade dependence on mideast oil for dependence on China. If the supply of batteries coming from China were ever interrupted for whatever reason it would take years to build production facilities in the U.S. It is far better to start with U.S. production facilities right from the gitgo than be sorry later!

There are lead acid battery production facilities in Ohio, Missouri and perhaps elsewhere. Let’s give those companies the opportunity to move into the production of lithium ion batteries.
OptimisticMF Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 9:31 am

Neutron,

Don’t disparage someone because they haven’t reviewed your library of postings. You wasted more time telling Randy to get educated than it takes to google it.

Randy,

Here is what I found:

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/

http://www.evworld.com/blogs/index.cfm?page=blogentry&blogid=211&authorid=81&archive=0

http://www.prnewsnow.com/Public_Release/Automotive/135922.html

Don’t take my word for it, but it looks like most of the “usable” lithium is found in four countries. One of which is China, another of which is not us. That could change over the next couple of decades, but we should consider it nonetheless.

-MF
Daniel Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 9:37 pm

It’s sad to think we may be trading one dependancy for another.

But in all honesty I could care less if the cars ran on cocaine, as long as it’s not oil at this point…

Yes we *may* have problems with China over this, but we *know for sure* that we have major problems with oil and oil-rich countries, so I’ll error on the side of maybe on this one, and choose potential problems with potential madmen over current active problems and current madmen…

(I really hope we could find a way to have them made in a free country though, and I’d pay more just for that)

Does Construction of a Battery Factory Need to Start 2 Years Before the Volt Gets Mass-Produced?

15 Responses to “Does Construction of a Battery Factory Need to Start 2 Years Before the Volt Gets Mass-Produced?”

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