Comments on: Report About A123 Systems

By: voltman

voltman — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 05:52:15 +0000

“Quite frankly, one charge per day is simply not going to be enough, as I see hordes of employers offering electric outlets for their plug-in employees, just as they did during the heyday of the EV-1 in So CA. Employees work roughly 240 days a year”

Why isnt one charge per day enough? They said it takes 6 hours to recharge the thing. You can only do that at work and at home (at night when its cheaper is better). You would only benefit from recharging at work if you work more than 20 miles from home, which, by design, is only 20% or so of us.

Maybe charging at work would be a big draw for california companies, but that just isnt going to happen anywhere else for a while.

By: kent beuchert

kent beuchert — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 16:00:30 +0000

Notice that we are no closer to knowing the life charge/discharge cycle of the VOLT. The article talks in terms of “full
charge/discharge cycles” while the VOLT
prevents any full charge/discharge cycles. The LG Chem fellow estimated that his battery might live “40 years” which means a whole lot more than 5,000 cycles. More like 15,000. I realize that in the absence of accurate data, engineers always overbuild,
often making things twice as strong as they think they need to be. But inaccurate overbuilding means that driving ranges are shorter than they need to be. Obviously, we’ll see as the years go by exactly how much they overbuilt, although most likely new technology batteries will appear by then, making the issue rather moot. Of course, all these cycles limits are in software and can be readjusted in the
future on those first generation VOLTs. We might discover that the VOLT battery pack can easily accomodate 50 or 55 mile driving ranges, and reprogram the control system to do just that.
Quite frankly, one charge per day is simply not going to be enough, as I see hordes of employers offering electric outlets for their plug-in employees, just as they did during the heyday of the EV-1 in So CA. Employees work roughly 240 days a year.

By: Don

Don — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 15:20:21 +0000

AES, CBAK (A123’s Chinese sub – publicly traded on NASDAQ btw) is “one of the largest manufacturers of lithium-ion battery cells in China and the world, as measured by production output. -http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?dcn=0001144204-07-040630&Type=HTML
They are heavily investing in facilities to produce Li-PO4 batteries for the EV/PHEV market. (Eyes there not only on working with GM but on the Chinese domestic market which is predicted to be a rapid growth area for these vehicles)
Which is just to say that this is no boutique operation that needs to grow; the mass production capicity is there as soon as they turn the key.

A123 is still negotiating price with GM and GM still hasn’t committed to them. You think maybe A123 might be a little less than forthcoming with the press about what their real bottomline is?

By: AES

AES — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 09:29:10 +0000

Don and Omega-

Tesla is using mass-produced cells that you can buy yourself for $5 apiece, so they are taking full advantage of economies of scale.

Using those cobalt-based laptop cells would build the volt pack for less than $2,000. But then you run into the massive safety problems.

What you can take away from this not-so-scientific comparison, though, is that LiFEPO4 cells like A123’s will eventually come way down in price once they enter even wider mass production. The materials are cheaper and more widely available. A123’s doping cations I’m not sure about though.

By: omegaman66

omegaman66 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 06:10:19 +0000

As I SPECULATED earlier the price of the battery is going to be an ever changing thing because it is brand freaking new. GM has said they will likely take a loss on the beginning (until the battery price drops I imagine)!

25K for the battery is in line with what I thought the battery would cost based on the cost of the tesla battery.

I was reassured over and over that the battery would be around 9K. I now believe that the true cost of the battery will indeed be around 25K and not 9. Eventually 9K but only down the road.

Like I said if the battery was 9K GM wouldn’t be talking about leasing the battery to you.

By: Don

Don — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 04:11:23 +0000

Hmmm. Tesla is stating that a replacement pack more than three times as large as Volt’s) would run $22K, or about $400/kWh. Miles Automotive Group is using a Chinese car manufacturer and battery producer to, allegedly, deliver a 120 mile range, 80mph top speed, 0-60 in @4s BEV sedan by 2009 for about $30K.

I can only conclude that prices of these batteries are already dropping or people are planning on a high burn rate.

By: AES

AES — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 03:20:47 +0000

I think put this number in another post a while back, but if one were to purchase A123’s M1 cells at the current general consumer rate – which is $20 a pop – it would cost $2,635 per kWh. Total pack cost= somewhere over 42 grand.

Now that’s for just anybody, and it’s probably a huge markup. OEM pricing is likely a lot lower. A123 also probably doesn’t have anywhere near the production capabilities of LG or any of the other major battery producers.

By: kent beuchert

kent beuchert — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 23:52:17 +0000

That “several times higher” intial cost for
li ion batteries was referring to the $300
target price established by the US Advanced
Battery Consortium (which I’m sure several of you are familiar with), not the $700 per kWhr cost of current nickel metal hydride
batteries that are used in current hybrids.
That’s better, and more in tune with the costs mentioned by the LG exec. That would
come out to $9600 battery pack, very close to his estimate of $9000. Now that oversized 16 kilowatthour battery pack makes sense – a case of engineering overbuild in the absense of longterm experience with the batteries. Of course, if the batteries perform better than anticipated, the upper and lower charge points could be liberalized, and the VOLT would have more electric range with the same number of batteries.

By: kent beuchert

kent beuchert — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 23:22:31 +0000

That “several times $700″ per kilowatt hour
doesn’t sound right – that would make the VOLT’s battery pack cost $22,400, or mean that the rest of the $30,000 car would cost
less than $7,000, an impossibility. In reading LG Chem’s exec comments in an earlier GM-VOLT.com segment, he seemed to be indicating a $9000 battery pack when he suggested leasing the batteries. GM has indicated that it expects to sell the VOLTs for a loss for the first so many.

By: Dave G

Dave G — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 22:38:07 +0000

Lyle – thanks for the link and synopsis. Great site – I’m hooked!