How’s that for ambitious plans? I’m sure there will be enough buyers.
Today Bloomberg published a report again citing those infernal anonymous sources (hope they’re better than mine!), who indicate that GM is planning to produce 60,000 Chevy Volts for it’s inaugural year (2010). This is four times the number of Priuses that came out it’s first year. The sources note that this level of production would be required to keep the car below it’s $30,000 price point. I guess they know how much the battery will cost by now.
Of course, the article inserted it’s obligatory critic, Menahem Anderman, president of Advanced Automotive Batteries, who feels that producing the car at all within 3 years may be impossible, and that this 60,000 unit number is “ridiculous”. He thinks GM should be taking orders now.
The Prius first year (2000) they sold 5,562 units, but lets face it, that was a different day and age. And this is a very different car.
For the Bloomberg article, GM spokesman Scott Fosgard declined to comment.
Could this be true? Sure is exciting news.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 22nd, 2007 at 9:50 am and is filed under Timeline. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (10:08 am)Wow, 60k in the first year is aggressive. Good for GM!! I’m curious about the comment in the article that says,
“To offer 40 miles of all-electric range, he estimates GM would need a battery pack that would weigh about 400 pounds. That would be seven times heavier than the nickel-metal-hydride pack in the current Prius. Added weight reduces fuel efficiency.”
Is that a sound estimate of the battery weight? It’s not a fair comparison to the Prius either, because the Prius isn’t an electric car like the volt.
PS Love the website!
Aug 22nd, 2007 (10:37 am)I expect so, but will it be reported on the website when waiting lists are enacted. I want to get on it as soon as possible. I love this car!
Aug 22nd, 2007 (10:41 am)I wonder if they factor in the added drivetrain and larger engine that the Prius requires?
I’ll take one in black, please!
Aug 22nd, 2007 (11:04 am)I honestly don’t think they would have a problem selling twice that many in the first year.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (11:26 am)Rumor has it the battery will be leased and the car owned, shades of EV-1.
Either way they should be taking orders now.
I’ll take a silver with grey interior.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (11:57 am)Let me get that straight, Menahem Anderman says 60,000 is impossible for 2010, but GM should be taking orders now. Odd comment.
Why wouldn’t GM begin some sort of down payment program now? Although “soft orders” aren’t fully paid, it’ll help indicate consumer interest. Plus GM could use the funds, PR, etc. Why not?
Aug 22nd, 2007 (12:30 pm)I certainly hope that they don’t require leasing of the battery. If they go the leasing way it should be optional, either purchase with the car or lease it. Leasing could add a bunch of complications that I wouldn’t want.
I would like to see GM taking deposits, if it was this far out I think that they would have to be fully refundable, and would just buy you a place in the queue. If they do this, all I’ll need to know is where to send the check.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (1:16 pm)Yay! Saw an excellent billboard today in SF:
Gas Friendly or Gas Free
chevy.com
Great that this time you are ADVERTISING the complete breakthrough that this really is: it’s…GAS FREE!
I never heard a peep about your EV1 back then, did you advertise it? Hope you get this out before you go out of business. It will save you as well as us. If you need to, rent the battery monthly and get deposits, (follow the Smart example) to ensure your first production run is a sellout.
Since theres a half million interested parties on the vote for the volt site, you should be fine.
PS: The AVEO and the Cobalt would be gorgeous as gas free cars too.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (2:01 pm)What about the number of Opels? As I recall, I seem to remember that one of the requirements of prospective suppliers was that they had to have the capacity to produce 100,000 battery packs. I also note that this Anderman “expert” (he’s some fellow from Oregon, of all places) doesn’t seem aware that there are two candidate suppliers, both of whom may be supplying batteries. LG Chem alone produces 1 MILLION batteries per day. Is that enough, do you suppose?
I also seem to remember some rumor that GM was looking to sell 1 million VOLTs in the first 5 years, which is obviously more than 60,000 per year.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (2:22 pm)I am an Opel Astra driver here in Belgium and would like like to change for an electric driven one as soon as possible if its economics are similar to the Volt’s ones.
I asked to GM Customer Care Belgium if there is any hope to buy one in 2010 or before. They answered me to look on their website from time to time or to read specialized magazines, that is … nothing.
I think the competition for batteries between US Volts and european Opels will not be a big problem and I agree with Susan K – our second car is an Opel Corsa (like the Chevy Aveo) making 60 mpg with a small turbocharged but fun diesel engine – it would be very interesting and obviously funnier to run it gas free on electric power.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (2:36 pm)Every indication from my sources is that the Volt is for real. Every time I talk to the guys they say that more engineers are being pulled from other programs to support the Volt. Good for GM. And, yes they have set a price for the battery, but I am not going to tell.
Keep on the look out for many more announcements from the OEMs on PHEVs. I think achieving the proper economies of scale are being addressed by multiple platforms attracting the most possible customers of expensive PHEV hardware.
The leasing issue, who is going to take the replacement risk: GM or the supplier? Interesting. I think it would be GM. However, they both need field life data for next gen packs – the biggest unknown.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (3:46 pm)Does this 2010 date mean Volts at dealer lots for Fall 2010 or Fall 2009?
Aug 22nd, 2007 (6:12 pm)Apex, I think the 2010 means the actual year. Not the ‘model year’… so if the Volt is on the lots in late 2010, it will probably be labeled as the ‘2011 Chevrolet Volt’.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (6:21 pm)While everyone wishes it were a 2010 model year thing, it will most likely be available late 2010 as a 2011 model year.
Also, current Li+ batteries have capacity of 115 watt hours/kg, meaning a 16 Kwh battery would weigh 306 pounds.
Hopefully by the time the volt comes out that energy density can be increased to 150 Wh/kg, which would decrease the size of the battery to 234 lbs.
Or, better yet, if they initially designed the Volt to have a400 lbs battery, then leave the weight as such, which would allow for an energy storage of 27.27 Kwh, which would give the volt an all electric range of 68 miles.
Make a car like that, and you would see out of 100,000 within a month.
of course, to keep the costs at $30k or less GM would probably go with the smaller battery, but maybe they could offer the larger pack as an option.
Thoughts?
Aug 22nd, 2007 (6:24 pm)I emailed the author of the Bloomberg article and got a reply. He said he included the skeptic’s comments in order to “cover both sides.”
The common thread amongst the skeptics is that 1) they don’t like GM
and 2) they don’t have any detailed knowledge about the VOLT program. In other words, they are biased folks who are also ignorant, not a great combination.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (6:33 pm)Color my Volt “White Diamond”! It is a diamond in the rough.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (7:38 pm)I want my Volt in Barolo Red Metallic or Red Jewel Tint Coat with Bluetooth and GPS. Thanks.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (9:01 pm)The 60,000 Volts report is a good one. One of my fears was that GM would estimate demand at some crazy low figure like 15,000 per year and be totally overwhelmed — and I’d never get my Volt!
I think I read somewhere that A123 systems’ contract plant in China has made more than 10 million of their lithium batteries. I suspect most of them went to DeWalt for their 36 volt line of power tools. There are 10 A123 cells in each battery pack, and I think several tools come with 2 packs. So, for the “expert” to suggest that nobody has manufactured batteries in the scale required is definitely wrong.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (9:28 pm)I’m looking at a projection of $130/b for crude oil for late 2010. The Volt may be too little too late.
Aug 22nd, 2007 (9:28 pm)OK
400lb battery! can you see the size of the snow drift I could drive through up here in Iowa!!!!!!!!!
I’ll take mine in a Gray outside and white interior, with Jon Luke saying “Make it so”
Tom
Aug 22nd, 2007 (10:24 pm)60,000 Volts may seem like a lot for a first run, but not when considering that oil may be vastly more expensive by the time the Volt is rolled out to the public.
The Volt is just over 3 years away from being available. In 3 years anything can happen. Here are my thoughts:
=Will Probably Happen in the next 3 years=
- China & India’s economies will continue to grow rapidly and their demand for oil will follow suit
- Iran will be attacked in one form or another
- The Iraq situation will not drastically improve
- More terrorist attacks around the world will occur
Each of these items alone has the power to increase the price of oil. All of these items combined will dramatically increase the price of oil.
We have rough times ahead of us, money-wise, until the Volt comes out.
Aug 23rd, 2007 (12:00 am)O.jeff’s point is cogent. A123’s one subcontracted producer is CBAK in China (publically traded on NASDAQ btw) and CBAK is one of the largest producers of Li batteries in both China and the world. They currently have a production capacity “of approximately 22 million units per month” – http://www.bak.com.cn/touzi-xiangxi.asp?id=354. A123 is a significant part of their business, @ 18% of their current total sales volume, and they have built factories specifically to go after the PHEV and BEV markets, whether that means with A123 or other or developing a domestic market (for China they plan on going after the electric scooter market first). A123 also has some wholly owned facilities. In short, they (A123 and their Chinese partner, CBAK) have the experience and the expertise like no one else around.
Of course A123 isn’t yet assured of being the supplier, let alone the only one, despite their recent closer collaboration …
Any thoughts on how the newer and improved soon to be released low sulfur diesels with their as good as hybrid mpg and better performance will effect public acceptance of this car?
Aug 23rd, 2007 (7:44 am)Adam, if if battery performance increases as you outlined. Chevy could offer a standard 234 lbs. pack and the option to buy more battery storage up to the 400 lbs design limit. I travel about 60 miles a day, I would want up upgrade. However those who travel less could purchase the battery storage pack that best fit their driving needs.
Mike
Aug 24th, 2007 (5:56 am)OK. 30k for the car, maybe a little more considering Tax, title, lic., dealer prep etc. Then on top of that you have to pay for a battery that will probably run 200 per month??? Maybe more!!! 30K sounded too good to be true and apparently it was/is!
Not dumping on the car just a realization sinking in. Looks like the volt will be out of my price range initially.
One day if the cost of the battery drops precipitiously and it has had no issues then maybe they will offer the option to purchase the battery.
I believe the car will now evolve like the computer did. Over time you get a drop in price while at the same time getting more than before. Eventually you will be able to by after market batteries.
I wonder if you could replace the original battery with a cheaper version (in the future) that gives you half the range for half the price. Add more capacity as you can afford it. Daisy chain them together as you buy more!!!
Aug 24th, 2007 (7:02 am)I would hope the new PHEV cell from A123 would cost around $500 per KWH. Given the Volt could retail for about $14,000 without the battery, the price could be as low as $22,000 and if the battery cost is $1000 per KWH, then the Volt would sell for around $30,000. If we split the difference, I think it is reasonable to expect the Volt to retail for about $26,000.
Feb 2nd, 2008 (6:00 am)[...] to produce Volts in the tens of thousands; in fact 60,000 was a number tossed around previously (see post), and exec will tell you themselves they would be happy to sell them in the [...]
Feb 24th, 2008 (6:00 am)[...] discussions about how many Volts GM plans to produce at first. We have heard before that as many as 60,000 could be built and more recently that tens of thousands were intended to be [...]
Dec 31st, 2008 (8:02 pm)Great news !
Of course the pessimistic nay-sayers will put a bad spin (yeah but what if) on it anyway.
Like the old joke of the farmer who is always complaining about the weather and when the weather is good he says “yes but it won’t last.”
Jul 21st, 2009 (10:25 pm)Интересно пишете, жизненно. Все-таки, для того, чтобы делать действительно интересный блог, нужно не только просто рассказывать о чем-то, но и делать это в интересной форме:)
Sep 6th, 2009 (8:04 pm)I’m not using more than $120.00 of petrol a month right now, sometimes less. After it went up to $4.00 a gallon I stopped using as much as possible. I won’t be leasing a battery pack that costs me more than petrol costs. If GM leases their pack I will be purchasing from any of the others that are not leasing a battery as they will all be dumping their electrics on the market in 2012. I just don’t understand why the manufacturers are all waiting for 2012.